I think what's interesting is that parties representing over 70% of VI have now accepted that immigration is too high and needs to be brought down substantially and I think whichever party is best placed to deliver that will win in 2029. It won't be the Tories because the brand is irreparably damaged in immigration and frankly, no one will believe them even if they do mean what they say. That leaves Labour and Reform. Labour are actually in power which means they can deliver lower immigration using the apparatus of the state.
I think what they're going to find is the same institutional resistance the Tories faced, the same civil servants like our own bondegezou who is clearly against this and I'm sure were he able to would frustrate all attempts by ministers to bring immigration down. These self satisfied lanyard wearers in the public sector will over reach, force the government to fail as they did with the Tories time and again then we'll end up with a Reform majority.
Labour will first need to deal with internal dissenters within the civil service and start purging these people or they, like the Tories, will be doomed to failure as they frustrate, delay and block ministers from implementing policies to bring immigration down, deport illegal immigrants and asylum seekers to stop the boats.
Lanyard wearers is excellent, I must say. I am one, though I'm also a former name badge wearer and "keeper of the PLB".
The civil service meme was disproven by Truss and Kwarteng. As long as you have the courage of your convictions, you can override them (and ignore the OBR) and enjoy the sunlit uplands.
While a school governor, I was also (along with every teacher and TA, of course) a lanyard wearer. For whatever value I provided, my cost to the taxpayer was zero.
It's a great way to describe office workers in a slightly derogatory manner, and cuts across private and public. Though it's a bit inaccurate because they are designed to come apart under pressure, so they're not banned in hospitals and construction sites etc.
More that it's useful to describe people who think they're more important than they are. Their lanyard embodies their persona, they see it as their super power, when they put it on in the morning they think they've become a different person who is better than everyone else. It is the best way to describe the civil service.
Fair enough. I don't think the term will last because it probably applies to 50%+ of the working population, in a physical sense.
I wonder if I would work harder if I put my lanyard on when I'm WFH though...
The paradox of the lanyard wearer is that they often exhibit zero or negative productivity, doing no work themselves and actively hindering others from doing so with endless meetings, check ins and requests for updates and processes involving various forms to be filled in to justify their own salaries and make them look busy.
The Tories desperately need to select a brilliant candidate for the London Mayorality, and for Reform to select a useless minor celebrity who will decide half way through the campaign that they can't be bothered.
I would still say the best idea is to give Boris a thorough sheep shearing (and dip) and take a punt on the Bojo magic reminding people of the good times.
Ant Middleton, a useless minor celebrity, is planning to stand for Reform UK.
I know but you embody their won't do attitude perfectly. Overly officious, attached to bureaucracy, think you know best even when you're completely wrong. If I could sum up the civil service into a single person, it would be you.
A bit man not ball, don't you think, Max?
Not really, he fully admitted that when he was working in an advisory capacity for the government during COVID he worked against the government of the day and the agenda of ministers.
The government asked me for my input. I gave that input. That input sometimes disagreed with what the government was doing. What's the point of being asked for your input to then just be a yesman?
How did your advice differ to what the government was proposing? I can't remember, if you posted it at the time.
I think what's interesting is that parties representing over 70% of VI have now accepted that immigration is too high and needs to be brought down substantially and I think whichever party is best placed to deliver that will win in 2029. It won't be the Tories because the brand is irreparably damaged in immigration and frankly, no one will believe them even if they do mean what they say. That leaves Labour and Reform. Labour are actually in power which means they can deliver lower immigration using the apparatus of the state.
I think what they're going to find is the same institutional resistance the Tories faced, the same civil servants like our own bondegezou who is clearly against this and I'm sure were he able to would frustrate all attempts by ministers to bring immigration down. These self satisfied lanyard wearers in the public sector will over reach, force the government to fail as they did with the Tories time and again then we'll end up with a Reform majority.
Labour will first need to deal with internal dissenters within the civil service and start purging these people or they, like the Tories, will be doomed to failure as they frustrate, delay and block ministers from implementing policies to bring immigration down, deport illegal immigrants and asylum seekers to stop the boats.
Lanyard wearers is excellent, I must say. I am one, though I'm also a former name badge wearer and "keeper of the PLB".
The civil service meme was disproven by Truss and Kwarteng. As long as you have the courage of your convictions, you can override them (and ignore the OBR) and enjoy the sunlit uplands.
While a school governor, I was also (along with every teacher and TA, of course) a lanyard wearer. For whatever value I provided, my cost to the taxpayer was zero.
It's a great way to describe office workers in a slightly derogatory manner, and cuts across private and public. Though it's a bit inaccurate because they are designed to come apart under pressure, so they're not banned in hospitals and construction sites etc.
More that it's useful to describe people who think they're more important than they are. Their lanyard embodies their persona, they see it as their super power, when they put it on in the morning they think they've become a different person who is better than everyone else. It is the best way to describe the civil service.
Fair enough. I don't think the term will last because it probably applies to 50%+ of the working population, in a physical sense.
I wonder if I would work harder if I put my lanyard on when I'm WFH though...
The paradox of the lanyard wearer is that they often exhibit zero or negative productivity, doing no work themselves and actively hindering others from doing so with endless meetings, check ins and requests for updates and processes involving various forms to be filled in to justify their own salaries and make them look busy.
Sounds like most managers to be honest, made a remark this morning in stand up....typical scrum master getting in the way of us actually doing work when he proposed yet another meeting. He said "I will pretend I didn't hear that" despite he wants another hour long meeting that would produce absolutely zero output
The Tories desperately need to select a brilliant candidate for the London Mayorality, and for Reform to select a useless minor celebrity who will decide half way through the campaign that they can't be bothered.
I would still say the best idea is to give Boris a thorough sheep shearing (and dip) and take a punt on the Bojo magic reminding people of the good times.
Ant Middleton, a useless minor celebrity, is planning to stand for Reform UK.
I'd say he's probably not a minor celeb, but I still think he's a beatable candidate.
Do you think he's a major celeb, or not a celeb at all?
He's also got convictions for wounding a police office and assaulting a female police officer, and he got into trouble for not paying over £1 million in owed tax. So, all in all, he'll fit in great in Reform UK.
The Tories desperately need to select a brilliant candidate for the London Mayorality, and for Reform to select a useless minor celebrity who will decide half way through the campaign that they can't be bothered.
I would still say the best idea is to give Boris a thorough sheep shearing (and dip) and take a punt on the Bojo magic reminding people of the good times.
Boris is cooked in London after Brexit, better would be for Cleverly to be Tory candidate for London Mayor and bring back Boris as Leader of the Conservative Party before the next GE as the Tories best hope to see off Farage and Starmer
I think rather the opposite - Boris could be elected once again as London Mayor, but no chance nationally.
Well you are wrong.
Boris failed to win in London even in 2019, nationally however MiC found last week a Johnson led Conservative Party would be on 26%, up 5% from where they are with Kemi. Reform would be on 23%, down 6% from their current 29%, with Labour unchanged on 22% and the LDs down 1% to 15%
You're definitely siezed of those MiC results, aren't you!
Give it a year and if we see more polls like that Tory MPs will literally be heading to Oxfordshire to lick Boris' shoes and begging him to return.
I can’t see it personally. It was a mistake to get rid of him when they did, but his goose is cooked after the immigration he allowed. Farage would tear him to bits and Starmer would just laugh. The Cameroons hate him, and the Reform inclined feel let down by him, and probably prefer Farage anyway, so what’s his appeal?
The Tories desperately need to select a brilliant candidate for the London Mayorality, and for Reform to select a useless minor celebrity who will decide half way through the campaign that they can't be bothered.
I would still say the best idea is to give Boris a thorough sheep shearing (and dip) and take a punt on the Bojo magic reminding people of the good times.
Ant Middleton, a useless minor celebrity, is planning to stand for Reform UK.
I'd say he's probably not a minor celeb, but I still think he's a beatable candidate.
Do you think he's a major celeb, or not a celeb at all?
He's also got convictions for wounding a police office and assaulting a female police officer, and he got into trouble for not paying over £1 million in owed tax. So, all in all, he'll fit in great in Reform UK.
The Tories desperately need to select a brilliant candidate for the London Mayorality, and for Reform to select a useless minor celebrity who will decide half way through the campaign that they can't be bothered.
I would still say the best idea is to give Boris a thorough sheep shearing (and dip) and take a punt on the Bojo magic reminding people of the good times.
Ant Middleton, a useless minor celebrity, is planning to stand for Reform UK.
The Tories desperately need to select a brilliant candidate for the London Mayorality, and for Reform to select a useless minor celebrity who will decide half way through the campaign that they can't be bothered.
I would still say the best idea is to give Boris a thorough sheep shearing (and dip) and take a punt on the Bojo magic reminding people of the good times.
Boris is cooked in London after Brexit, better would be for Cleverly to be Tory candidate for London Mayor and bring back Boris as Leader of the Conservative Party before the next GE as the Tories best hope to see off Farage and Starmer
I think rather the opposite - Boris could be elected once again as London Mayor, but no chance nationally.
Well you are wrong.
Boris failed to win in London even in 2019, nationally however MiC found last week a Johnson led Conservative Party would be on 26%, up 5% from where they are with Kemi. Reform would be on 23%, down 6% from their current 29%, with Labour unchanged on 22% and the LDs down 1% to 15%
You're definitely siezed of those MiC results, aren't you!
Give it a year and if we see more polls like that Tory MPs will literally be heading to Oxfordshire to lick Boris' shoes and begging him to return.
I can’t see it personally. It was a mistake to get rid of him when they did, but his goose is cooked after the immigration he allowed. Farage would tear him to bits and Starmer would just laugh. The Cameroons hate him, and the Reform inclined feel let down by him, and probably prefer Farage anyway, so what’s his appeal?
Charisma and personality and oomph.
Even on that poll Reform still get 23% even against Boris but Boris is the only Tory who takes the lead, with the Conservatives reaching 26% under a returned Johnson leadership and Labour fall to third on 22%.
So Boris would probably have to make Farage DPM or get Reform confidence and supply but he would save at risk Tory MPs and win back some seats from Labour he won in 2019 the Tories lost last year
I know but you embody their won't do attitude perfectly. Overly officious, attached to bureaucracy, think you know best even when you're completely wrong. If I could sum up the civil service into a single person, it would be you.
A bit man not ball, don't you think, Max?
Not really, he fully admitted that when he was working in an advisory capacity for the government during COVID he worked against the government of the day and the agenda of ministers.
The government asked me for my input. I gave that input. That input sometimes disagreed with what the government was doing. What's the point of being asked for your input to then just be a yesman?
How did your advice differ to what the government was proposing? I can't remember, if you posted it at the time.
We did a f**kton of work. There were 41 reports done for government, so there's all sorts of detail across those, plus umpteen meetings, published papers etc. Most of those reports were answering questions posed to us rather than advice as such. I guess the main point of disagreement was that we were pushing for more support for people who tested positive for COVID-19 and were isolating. We kept finding that those with financial problems and those with children tended to be worse at isolating, because they found it difficult to isolate. The solution to this is to give them help with isolating.
The government, reflecting its ideological background perhaps, tended towards stick more than carrot. Colleagues presented other evidence that stick is less effective, e.g. there was a lot of criticism of the aggressive policing approach.
The Tories desperately need to select a brilliant candidate for the London Mayorality, and for Reform to select a useless minor celebrity who will decide half way through the campaign that they can't be bothered.
I would still say the best idea is to give Boris a thorough sheep shearing (and dip) and take a punt on the Bojo magic reminding people of the good times.
Ant Middleton, a useless minor celebrity, is planning to stand for Reform UK.
The Tories desperately need to select a brilliant candidate for the London Mayorality, and for Reform to select a useless minor celebrity who will decide half way through the campaign that they can't be bothered.
I would still say the best idea is to give Boris a thorough sheep shearing (and dip) and take a punt on the Bojo magic reminding people of the good times.
Ant Middleton, a useless minor celebrity, is planning to stand for Reform UK.
I'd say he's probably not a minor celeb, but I still think he's a beatable candidate.
Do you think he's a major celeb, or not a celeb at all?
He's also got convictions for wounding a police office and assaulting a female police officer, and he got into trouble for not paying over £1 million in owed tax. So, all in all, he'll fit in great in Reform UK.
Sounds more a fit for the lib dems to me
I'm beginning to suspect, Pagan2, that maybe you don't like the LibDems?
I know but you embody their won't do attitude perfectly. Overly officious, attached to bureaucracy, think you know best even when you're completely wrong. If I could sum up the civil service into a single person, it would be you.
A bit man not ball, don't you think, Max?
Not really, he fully admitted that when he was working in an advisory capacity for the government during COVID he worked against the government of the day and the agenda of ministers.
The government asked me for my input. I gave that input. That input sometimes disagreed with what the government was doing. What's the point of being asked for your input to then just be a yesman?
How did your advice differ to what the government was proposing? I can't remember, if you posted it at the time.
We did a f**kton of work. There were 41 reports done for government, so there's all sorts of detail across those, plus umpteen meetings, published papers etc. Most of those reports were answering questions posed to us rather than advice as such. I guess the main point of disagreement was that we were pushing for more support for people who tested positive for COVID-19 and were isolating. We kept finding that those with financial problems and those with children tended to be worse at isolating, because they found it difficult to isolate. The solution to this is to give them help with isolating.
The government, reflecting its ideological background perhaps, tended towards stick more than carrot. Colleagues presented other evidence that stick is less effective, e.g. there was a lot of criticism of the aggressive policing approach.
The Tories desperately need to select a brilliant candidate for the London Mayorality, and for Reform to select a useless minor celebrity who will decide half way through the campaign that they can't be bothered.
I would still say the best idea is to give Boris a thorough sheep shearing (and dip) and take a punt on the Bojo magic reminding people of the good times.
Ant Middleton, a useless minor celebrity, is planning to stand for Reform UK.
The Tories desperately need to select a brilliant candidate for the London Mayorality, and for Reform to select a useless minor celebrity who will decide half way through the campaign that they can't be bothered.
I would still say the best idea is to give Boris a thorough sheep shearing (and dip) and take a punt on the Bojo magic reminding people of the good times.
Ant Middleton, a useless minor celebrity, is planning to stand for Reform UK.
I'd say he's probably not a minor celeb, but I still think he's a beatable candidate.
Do you think he's a major celeb, or not a celeb at all?
He's also got convictions for wounding a police office and assaulting a female police officer, and he got into trouble for not paying over £1 million in owed tax. So, all in all, he'll fit in great in Reform UK.
Sounds more a fit for the lib dems to me
Closer to the Conservatives, took all the turnover as Directors' loans and didn't pay the corporation tax and VAT due, you'd seat him next to Doug Barrowman at the campaign fundraiser...
The Tories desperately need to select a brilliant candidate for the London Mayorality, and for Reform to select a useless minor celebrity who will decide half way through the campaign that they can't be bothered.
I would still say the best idea is to give Boris a thorough sheep shearing (and dip) and take a punt on the Bojo magic reminding people of the good times.
Boris is cooked in London after Brexit, better would be for Cleverly to be Tory candidate for London Mayor and bring back Boris as Leader of the Conservative Party before the next GE as the Tories best hope to see off Farage and Starmer
I think rather the opposite - Boris could be elected once again as London Mayor, but no chance nationally.
Well you are wrong.
Boris failed to win in London even in 2019, nationally however MiC found last week a Johnson led Conservative Party would be on 26%, up 5% from where they are with Kemi. Reform would be on 23%, down 6% from their current 29% with Labour unchanged on 22% and the LDs down 1% to 15%
Happy to be wrong. What would you prefer him doing though? PM or London Mayor? Ponder it for a while and consider that the electorate is other people much like you. I'm not sure you'll be so certain that I'm wrong.
Tory leader, it is nationally where the Tories need to win back voters which the polls show only Boris can do, they don't need to win back London and any Tory candidate would still likely lose the capital and Mayoral race again
Well it strikes me as a little unrealistic. If he could do it then fine, but I don't think he can. London Mayor he can do.
(Although he may be out of the game anyway - he's not looking great)
Complete gap otherwise.
He has done both jobs and Tories only care about where he can most boost them electorally, which is national leader again
On London Mayor, Susan Wotsit is back.
She and Bojo can have a joust for the candidacy on Boris Bikes with Clean Up Clapham yard brushes.
I know but you embody their won't do attitude perfectly. Overly officious, attached to bureaucracy, think you know best even when you're completely wrong. If I could sum up the civil service into a single person, it would be you.
A bit man not ball, don't you think, Max?
Not really, he fully admitted that when he was working in an advisory capacity for the government during COVID he worked against the government of the day and the agenda of ministers.
The government asked me for my input. I gave that input. That input sometimes disagreed with what the government was doing. What's the point of being asked for your input to then just be a yesman?
How did your advice differ to what the government was proposing? I can't remember, if you posted it at the time.
We did a f**kton of work. There were 41 reports done for government, so there's all sorts of detail across those, plus umpteen meetings, published papers etc. Most of those reports were answering questions posed to us rather than advice as such. I guess the main point of disagreement was that we were pushing for more support for people who tested positive for COVID-19 and were isolating. We kept finding that those with financial problems and those with children tended to be worse at isolating, because they found it difficult to isolate. The solution to this is to give them help with isolating.
The government, reflecting its ideological background perhaps, tended towards stick more than carrot. Colleagues presented other evidence that stick is less effective, e.g. there was a lot of criticism of the aggressive policing approach.
The Tories desperately need to select a brilliant candidate for the London Mayorality, and for Reform to select a useless minor celebrity who will decide half way through the campaign that they can't be bothered.
I would still say the best idea is to give Boris a thorough sheep shearing (and dip) and take a punt on the Bojo magic reminding people of the good times.
Boris is cooked in London after Brexit, better would be for Cleverly to be Tory candidate for London Mayor and bring back Boris as Leader of the Conservative Party before the next GE as the Tories best hope to see off Farage and Starmer
I think rather the opposite - Boris could be elected once again as London Mayor, but no chance nationally.
Well you are wrong.
Boris failed to win in London even in 2019, nationally however MiC found last week a Johnson led Conservative Party would be on 26%, up 5% from where they are with Kemi. Reform would be on 23%, down 6% from their current 29%, with Labour unchanged on 22% and the LDs down 1% to 15%
You're definitely siezed of those MiC results, aren't you!
Give it a year and if we see more polls like that Tory MPs will literally be heading to Oxfordshire to lick Boris' shoes and begging him to return.
I can’t see it personally. It was a mistake to get rid of him when they did, but his goose is cooked after the immigration he allowed. Farage would tear him to bits and Starmer would just laugh. The Cameroons hate him, and the Reform inclined feel let down by him, and probably prefer Farage anyway, so what’s his appeal?
Charisma and personality and oomph.
Even on that poll Reform still get 23% even against Boris but Boris is the only Tory who takes the lead, with the Conservatives reaching 26% under a returned Johnson leadership and Labour fall to third on 22%.
So Boris would probably have to make Farage DPM or get Reform confidence and supply but he would save at risk Tory MPs and win back some seats from Labour he won in 2019 the Tories lost last year
I still think my strategy is better.
You argue that Boris's Tories lost parliamentary elections in London, but that’s not the same at all as Boris losing as Mayor to Sadiq Khan.
He has a far better record as London Mayor than he does as PM. He was actually pretty good in London.
He wouldn't need to get a Westminster seat to stand in London (always a danger he'd fail to even do that, as Reform will at least split his vote, if not outright beat him).
Even if he loses, if he performs above expectations (which are nil) in London that still leaves the possibility of a future parliamentary run.
The Tories desperately need to select a brilliant candidate for the London Mayorality, and for Reform to select a useless minor celebrity who will decide half way through the campaign that they can't be bothered.
I would still say the best idea is to give Boris a thorough sheep shearing (and dip) and take a punt on the Bojo magic reminding people of the good times.
Boris is cooked in London after Brexit, better would be for Cleverly to be Tory candidate for London Mayor and bring back Boris as Leader of the Conservative Party before the next GE as the Tories best hope to see off Farage and Starmer.
As MiC found in their poll last week only a Johnson led Conservatives would now lead Reform and Labour, a Badenoch, Jenrick, even Cameron led Tories would still trail and a Sunak led Tories at best tie with Reform
I know you think that but I'm unconvinced.
I just find it curious that people think Bozo would win a by election which is step 1 to becoming party leader again.
I mean unless he was given the safest of safe seats everyone would be focussed on making sure he lost the election
The Tories desperately need to select a brilliant candidate for the London Mayorality, and for Reform to select a useless minor celebrity who will decide half way through the campaign that they can't be bothered.
I would still say the best idea is to give Boris a thorough sheep shearing (and dip) and take a punt on the Bojo magic reminding people of the good times.
Ant Middleton, a useless minor celebrity, is planning to stand for Reform UK.
Who?
Ant McPartlin would be noteworthy.
He's in the SAS isn't he?
He was more recently in prison for assaulting two police officers.
And even more recently in the news when his company went bankrupt owing over a million in tax.
The Tories desperately need to select a brilliant candidate for the London Mayorality, and for Reform to select a useless minor celebrity who will decide half way through the campaign that they can't be bothered.
I would still say the best idea is to give Boris a thorough sheep shearing (and dip) and take a punt on the Bojo magic reminding people of the good times.
Boris is cooked in London after Brexit, better would be for Cleverly to be Tory candidate for London Mayor and bring back Boris as Leader of the Conservative Party before the next GE as the Tories best hope to see off Farage and Starmer
I think rather the opposite - Boris could be elected once again as London Mayor, but no chance nationally.
Well you are wrong.
Boris failed to win in London even in 2019, nationally however MiC found last week a Johnson led Conservative Party would be on 26%, up 5% from where they are with Kemi. Reform would be on 23%, down 6% from their current 29%, with Labour unchanged on 22% and the LDs down 1% to 15%
The Tories desperately need to select a brilliant candidate for the London Mayorality, and for Reform to select a useless minor celebrity who will decide half way through the campaign that they can't be bothered.
I would still say the best idea is to give Boris a thorough sheep shearing (and dip) and take a punt on the Bojo magic reminding people of the good times.
Ant Middleton, a useless minor celebrity, is planning to stand for Reform UK.
I'd say he's probably not a minor celeb, but I still think he's a beatable candidate.
I'd never heard of him, FWIW. No idea if that makes him 'minor', but certainly not A-list.
Wikipedia tells me he's a convicted criminal, and banned from being a company director.
I think what's interesting is that parties representing over 70% of VI have now accepted that immigration is too high and needs to be brought down substantially and I think whichever party is best placed to deliver that will win in 2029. It won't be the Tories because the brand is irreparably damaged in immigration and frankly, no one will believe them even if they do mean what they say. That leaves Labour and Reform. Labour are actually in power which means they can deliver lower immigration using the apparatus of the state.
I think what they're going to find is the same institutional resistance the Tories faced, the same civil servants like our own bondegezou who is clearly against this and I'm sure were he able to would frustrate all attempts by ministers to bring immigration down. These self satisfied lanyard wearers in the public sector will over reach, force the government to fail as they did with the Tories time and again then we'll end up with a Reform majority.
Labour will first need to deal with internal dissenters within the civil service and start purging these people or they, like the Tories, will be doomed to failure as they frustrate, delay and block ministers from implementing policies to bring immigration down, deport illegal immigrants and asylum seekers to stop the boats.
Lanyard wearers is excellent, I must say. I am one, though I'm also a former name badge wearer and "keeper of the PLB".
The civil service meme was disproven by Truss and Kwarteng. As long as you have the courage of your convictions, you can override them (and ignore the OBR) and enjoy the sunlit uplands.
While a school governor, I was also (along with every teacher and TA, of course) a lanyard wearer. For whatever value I provided, my cost to the taxpayer was zero.
It's a great way to describe office workers in a slightly derogatory manner, and cuts across private and public. Though it's a bit inaccurate because they are designed to come apart under pressure, so they're not banned in hospitals and construction sites etc.
"Designed to come apart under pressure" - is that the lanyards or the wearers?
REPORTER: Why are you creating an expedited path into the country for Afrikaners but not others?
TRUMP: Because they're being killed. And we don't want to see people be killed ... it's a genocide that's taking place. Farmers are being killed. They happen to be white. https://x.com/atrupar/status/1921940869407481962
And yet, she still believes that she is a misunderstood political giant.
Pop quiz: who was the last Tory leader (or ex-leader) to lose their seat at a general election?
Pierre Poilievre, I believe it was tipped at 14/1?
If we're going abroad then it would be Peter Dutton, I think?
My pedantry excludes Dutton as he was Leader of the Liberal Party whereas PP was a Conservative/Tory.
The Australian "Liberal" party is a liberal party in name only.
The Australian Liberals are officially part of the International Democracy Union of right-wing parties, with other members of this alliance being the UK Tories and the Canadian Conservatives/Tories.
If Poliviere is a Tory then Dutton is also a Tory.
The Tories desperately need to select a brilliant candidate for the London Mayorality, and for Reform to select a useless minor celebrity who will decide half way through the campaign that they can't be bothered.
I would still say the best idea is to give Boris a thorough sheep shearing (and dip) and take a punt on the Bojo magic reminding people of the good times.
Boris is cooked in London after Brexit, better would be for Cleverly to be Tory candidate for London Mayor and bring back Boris as Leader of the Conservative Party before the next GE as the Tories best hope to see off Farage and Starmer.
As MiC found in their poll last week only a Johnson led Conservatives would now lead Reform and Labour, a Badenoch, Jenrick, even Cameron led Tories would still trail and a Sunak led Tories at best tie with Reform
I know you think that but I'm unconvinced.
I just find it curious that people think Bozo would win a by election which is step 1 to becoming party leader again.
I mean unless he was given the safest of safe seats everyone would be focussed on making sure he lost the election
I think there is exactly one seat (Harrow E) where the Conservatives had an absolute majority last year. Looking at the other seats at that end of the list, they look either too vulnerable (Arundel would go to the Lib Dems as easily as a ripe plum plucked from the tree), or fail the Carrie "that's blooming miles away" test (e.g. Richmond & Northallerton).
Plotting a return for Boris is a bit like Operation Sealion; a fun game to imagine how it could be made to work, but not realistic.
The Tories desperately need to select a brilliant candidate for the London Mayorality, and for Reform to select a useless minor celebrity who will decide half way through the campaign that they can't be bothered.
I would still say the best idea is to give Boris a thorough sheep shearing (and dip) and take a punt on the Bojo magic reminding people of the good times.
Boris is cooked in London after Brexit, better would be for Cleverly to be Tory candidate for London Mayor and bring back Boris as Leader of the Conservative Party before the next GE as the Tories best hope to see off Farage and Starmer.
As MiC found in their poll last week only a Johnson led Conservatives would now lead Reform and Labour, a Badenoch, Jenrick, even Cameron led Tories would still trail and a Sunak led Tories at best tie with Reform
I know you think that but I'm unconvinced.
I just find it curious that people think Bozo would win a by election which is step 1 to becoming party leader again.
I mean unless he was given the safest of safe seats everyone would be focussed on making sure he lost the election
Or he ran as Reform, became leader of *that* (with Farage maybe as its Hon Pres or something), then merged the two parties and the combined thing reverted to something vaguely sensible.
Though every step of that is a low-probability event.
In any case, would Johnson even want to return, given his other more trouble-free commitments, and the risks that coming out of retirement would bring (one of which might be that there just isn't that Boris Magic any more)?
I think what's interesting is that parties representing over 70% of VI have now accepted that immigration is too high and needs to be brought down substantially and I think whichever party is best placed to deliver that will win in 2029. It won't be the Tories because the brand is irreparably damaged in immigration and frankly, no one will believe them even if they do mean what they say. That leaves Labour and Reform. Labour are actually in power which means they can deliver lower immigration using the apparatus of the state.
I think what they're going to find is the same institutional resistance the Tories faced, the same civil servants like our own @bondegezou who is clearly against this and I'm sure were he able to would frustrate all attempts by ministers to bring immigration down. These self satisfied lanyard wearers in the public sector will over reach, force the government to fail as they did with the Tories time and again then we'll end up with a Reform majority.
Labour will first need to deal with internal dissenters within the civil service and start purging these people or they, like the Tories, will be doomed to failure as they frustrate, delay and block ministers from implementing policies to bring immigration down, deport illegal immigrants and asylum seekers to stop the boats.
I think the Tories and immigration are in a bit of a "Lib Dem tuition fees promise" situation...
They spent the best part of their 12 years in power promising to reduce migration, campaigning to end open borders via Brexit, talk of stopping the boats etc. Yet net migration skyrocketed to such levels that even internationalist liberals like me think we need to bring numbers down very considerably. And the Tories have no one to blame but themselves - who would trust them on it again?
Labour will never outflank Reform on the right. But they can try to fix unsustainable immigration that makes the housing shortage they are (inevitably, slowly) trying to fix worse. That will put the Tories in the uncomfortable place of being third most trusted on migration.
Is anyone keeping track of Reform Councillors defenestrating, or being defenestrated?
Dr Pack has another one (yes, of course he would report it).
The three other councillors who Reform has shed are Donna Edmunds (suspended by Reform UK and then quit the party), Luke Shingler (now listed as an independent) and Desmond Clarke (resigned as councillor).
I was wondering that. Figured you more for one of the rude ones
ETA - but do you wear a lanyard? I don't, but I'm probably in the minority at work; I'm not sure what the official policy is or whether there is one, but no one has ever told me off for it.
I had one but didn't like wearing it, so it got waved at the door to the office and that was it.
I think the true "lanyard class" are the people who wander around with a lanyard after work when they don't need to be wearing it.
I usually see NHS admin staff doing this, although I've seen Council staff do it too.
It always makes me think that they need a label to tell them who they are.
Is anyone keeping track of Reform Councillors defenestrating, or being defenestrated?
Dr Pack has another one (yes, of course he would report it).
The three other councillors who Reform has shed are Donna Edmunds (suspended by Reform UK and then quit the party), Luke Shingler (now listed as an independent) and Desmond Clarke (resigned as councillor).
Is anyone keeping track of Reform Councillors defenestrating, or being defenestrated?
Dr Pack has another one (yes, of course he would report it).
The three other councillors who Reform has shed are Donna Edmunds (suspended by Reform UK and then quit the party), Luke Shingler (now listed as an independent) and Desmond Clarke (resigned as councillor).
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
[swaggering] I voted for the Brexit Party at the 2019 Euro elections, man
Looks like a big scandal coming on Afghan resettlement/UK war crimes... going to be a bit awkward for our human rights lawyer PM who I suspect is going to look the other way...
Fun and games in London with a partial power failure on the underground and overground networks but as it's London plenty of alternatives to get from A to B (via C, D or X).
The London poll from Find Out Now is interesting but plenty of caveats - the first one is 23% Don't Knows among men and 40% DKs among women so fetch me a large bucket of salt.
Not sure I wholly agree with their constituency predictions if I'm being honest but it's all conjecture at this stage. Of greater import are the Mayoral numbers suggesting "the Labour candidate" would still win a poll conducted on FPTP - having got rid of the proportionality, the Conservatives might end up getting stung by it.
2026 sees local elections in London and clearly an opportunity for Reform to expand their councillor base in London (such as it is). Of greater import may be the impact on Conservative local Government fortunes in London but a year is an eternity in politics.
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
As I said in the previous thread, these people haven't been radicalised against immigration by the boats but actually by the drum beat of ridiculous court judgements against deportation orders. The child molester who successfully blocked a deportation order because it would be hard on his kids was particularly dark.
It makes people feel as though we are no longer safe in our own country because we can't deport foreign criminals.
Is anyone keeping track of Reform Councillors defenestrating, or being defenestrated?
Dr Pack has another one (yes, of course he would report it).
The three other councillors who Reform has shed are Donna Edmunds (suspended by Reform UK and then quit the party), Luke Shingler (now listed as an independent) and Desmond Clarke (resigned as councillor).
I think what's interesting is that parties representing over 70% of VI have now accepted that immigration is too high and needs to be brought down substantially and I think whichever party is best placed to deliver that will win in 2029. It won't be the Tories because the brand is irreparably damaged in immigration and frankly, no one will believe them even if they do mean what they say. That leaves Labour and Reform. Labour are actually in power which means they can deliver lower immigration using the apparatus of the state.
I think what they're going to find is the same institutional resistance the Tories faced, the same civil servants like our own bondegezou who is clearly against this and I'm sure were he able to would frustrate all attempts by ministers to bring immigration down. These self satisfied lanyard wearers in the public sector will over reach, force the government to fail as they did with the Tories time and again then we'll end up with a Reform majority.
Labour will first need to deal with internal dissenters within the civil service and start purging these people or they, like the Tories, will be doomed to failure as they frustrate, delay and block ministers from implementing policies to bring immigration down, deport illegal immigrants and asylum seekers to stop the boats.
Lanyard wearers is excellent, I must say. I am one, though I'm also a former name badge wearer and "keeper of the PLB".
The civil service meme was disproven by Truss and Kwarteng. As long as you have the courage of your convictions, you can override them (and ignore the OBR) and enjoy the sunlit uplands.
While a school governor, I was also (along with every teacher and TA, of course) a lanyard wearer. For whatever value I provided, my cost to the taxpayer was zero.
It's a great way to describe office workers in a slightly derogatory manner, and cuts across private and public. Though it's a bit inaccurate because they are designed to come apart under pressure, so they're not banned in hospitals and construction sites etc.
More that it's useful to describe people who think they're more important than they are. Their lanyard embodies their persona, they see it as their super power, when they put it on in the morning they think they've become a different person who is better than everyone else. It is the best way to describe the civil service.
Fair enough. I don't think the term will last because it probably applies to 50%+ of the working population, in a physical sense.
I wonder if I would work harder if I put my lanyard on when I'm WFH though...
I think Max has it the wrong way round. The lanyard isn't a symbol of pride but of servitude. It's your employer saying - you are so unimportant to us, we need help remembering who you are. I no longer wear a lanyard and it is liberating!
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
As I said in the previous thread, these people haven't been radicalised against immigration by the boats but actually by the drum beat of ridiculous court judgements against deportation orders. The child molester who successfully blocked a deportation order because it would be hard on his kids was particularly dark.
It makes people feel as though we are no longer safe in our own country because we can't deport foreign criminals.
The child molester blocked because it would be hard on his kids shows that the court wasn't thinking about his kids or actually thinking..
I was wondering that. Figured you more for one of the rude ones
ETA - but do you wear a lanyard? I don't, but I'm probably in the minority at work; I'm not sure what the official policy is or whether there is one, but no one has ever told me off for it.
I had one but didn't like wearing it, so it got waved at the door to the office and that was it.
I think the true "lanyard class" are the people who wander around with a lanyard after work when they don't need to be wearing it.
I usually see NHS admin staff doing this, although I've seen Council staff do it too.
It always makes me think that they need a label to tell them who they are.
It's usually because they've forgotten to take it off. The PB takes on this (utterly unimportant) subject are quite ridiculous.
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
As I said in the previous thread, these people haven't been radicalised against immigration by the boats but actually by the drum beat of ridiculous court judgements against deportation orders. The child molester who successfully blocked a deportation order because it would be hard on his kids was particularly dark.
It makes people feel as though we are no longer safe in our own country because we can't deport foreign criminals.
I sense it’s a mix of
1. Boat people - still coming 2. Swift demographic change in london 3. Now Visible Crime - shoplifting etc 4. And - as you say - this parade of absurd judicial decisions favouring non Britons at the expense of Britons
It’s still quite remarkable - to me. West london poshos happy to admit JOINING a party that the absurd @bondygoogoo claims is racist and fash
It ain’t just the red wall and Great Yarmouth. We shall see if it lasts…
I was wondering that. Figured you more for one of the rude ones
ETA - but do you wear a lanyard? I don't, but I'm probably in the minority at work; I'm not sure what the official policy is or whether there is one, but no one has ever told me off for it.
I had one but didn't like wearing it, so it got waved at the door to the office and that was it.
I think the true "lanyard class" are the people who wander around with a lanyard after work when they don't need to be wearing it.
I usually see NHS admin staff doing this, although I've seen Council staff do it too.
It always makes me think that they need a label to tell them who they are.
Wearing a lanyard with ID outside is surely a disciplinary offence?
I was wondering that. Figured you more for one of the rude ones
ETA - but do you wear a lanyard? I don't, but I'm probably in the minority at work; I'm not sure what the official policy is or whether there is one, but no one has ever told me off for it.
I had one but didn't like wearing it, so it got waved at the door to the office and that was it.
I think the true "lanyard class" are the people who wander around with a lanyard after work when they don't need to be wearing it.
I usually see NHS admin staff doing this, although I've seen Council staff do it too.
It always makes me think that they need a label to tell them who they are.
It's usually because they've forgotten to take it off. The PB takes on this (utterly unimportant) subject are quite ridiculous.
I will be wearing my lanyard Thursday to Monday, so I can demonstrate to anyone curious that I am the guy running the main stage at the Dart Music Festival. I think it is part of the the Elf and Safety Plan agreed with the council before we can put the event on.
I'll likely be so tired at the end of each day that I will fall asleep wearing it.
Looks like a big scandal coming on Afghan resettlement/UK war crimes... going to be a bit awkward for our human rights lawyer PM who I suspect is going to look the other way...
This looks very big. Concerted leaks, going after Generals and former PMs.
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
[swaggering] I voted for the Brexit Party at the 2019 Euro elections, man
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
Sounded vaguely plausible, until Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards. Nobody sane ever carries their political party membership cards with them, surely? Mine has never left the house.
I was wondering that. Figured you more for one of the rude ones
ETA - but do you wear a lanyard? I don't, but I'm probably in the minority at work; I'm not sure what the official policy is or whether there is one, but no one has ever told me off for it.
I do wear a lanyard when in the office. Occasionally I have a rainbow lanyard.
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
As I said in the previous thread, these people haven't been radicalised against immigration by the boats but actually by the drum beat of ridiculous court judgements against deportation orders. The child molester who successfully blocked a deportation order because it would be hard on his kids was particularly dark.
It makes people feel as though we are no longer safe in our own country because we can't deport foreign criminals.
I sense it’s a mix of
1. Boat people - still coming 2. Swift demographic change in london 3. Now Visible Crime - shoplifting etc 4. And - as you say - this parade of absurd judicial decisions favouring non Britons at the expense of Britons
It’s still quite remarkable - to me. West london poshos happy to admit JOINING a party that the absurd @bondygoogoo claims is racist and fash
It ain’t just the red wall and Great Yarmouth. We shall see if it lasts…
Support for Reform definitely extends into the professional classes. The divisions they won in Broxbourne were the two wealthiest.
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
Sounded vaguely plausible, until Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards. Nobody sane ever carries their political party membership cards with them, surely? Mine has never left the house.
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
Sounded vaguely plausible, until Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards. Nobody sane ever carries their political party membership cards with them, surely? Mine has never left the house.
Just getting ahead of the "Papiere, bitte" meme...
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
As I said in the previous thread, these people haven't been radicalised against immigration by the boats but actually by the drum beat of ridiculous court judgements against deportation orders. The child molester who successfully blocked a deportation order because it would be hard on his kids was particularly dark.
It makes people feel as though we are no longer safe in our own country because we can't deport foreign criminals.
I sense it’s a mix of
1. Boat people - still coming 2. Swift demographic change in london 3. Now Visible Crime - shoplifting etc 4. And - as you say - this parade of absurd judicial decisions favouring non Britons at the expense of Britons
It’s still quite remarkable - to me. West london poshos happy to admit JOINING a party that the absurd @bondygoogoo claims is racist and fash
It ain’t just the red wall and Great Yarmouth. We shall see if it lasts…
Support for Reform definitely extends into the professional classes. The divisions they won in Broxbourne were the two wealthiest.
They carried plenty of rich wards in Kent.
If this continues it’s a death warrant for the Tories
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
Sounded vaguely plausible, until Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards. Nobody sane ever carries their political party membership cards with them, surely? Mine has never left the house.
It’s digital. On your phone. Twit
You should write more precisely then. They didn't get out their membership cards, they got out their phones on which....... Sorry, too fucking boring to continue. Twit.
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
Sounded vaguely plausible, until Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards. Nobody sane ever carries their political party membership cards with them, surely? Mine has never left the house.
It’s digital. On your phone. Twit
You should write more precisely then. They didn't get out their membership cards, they got out their phones on which....... Sorry, too fucking boring to continue. Twit.
You’re so dumb you couldn’t work that out. Embarrassing
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
As I said in the previous thread, these people haven't been radicalised against immigration by the boats but actually by the drum beat of ridiculous court judgements against deportation orders. The child molester who successfully blocked a deportation order because it would be hard on his kids was particularly dark.
It makes people feel as though we are no longer safe in our own country because we can't deport foreign criminals.
I sense it’s a mix of
1. Boat people - still coming 2. Swift demographic change in london 3. Now Visible Crime - shoplifting etc 4. And - as you say - this parade of absurd judicial decisions favouring non Britons at the expense of Britons
It’s still quite remarkable - to me. West london poshos happy to admit JOINING a party that the absurd @bondygoogoo claims is racist and fash
It ain’t just the red wall and Great Yarmouth. We shall see if it lasts…
Support for Reform definitely extends into the professional classes. The divisions they won in Broxbourne were the two wealthiest.
They carried plenty of rich wards in Kent.
If this continues it’s a death warrant for the Tories
Nah. Fash fad.
They'll be ebarrassed as all hell by the next election.
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
Not much sign of any Reform headway in East London. The main threats to Labour here are the Greens and the pro-Palestine Newham Independents.
The JL Partners seat projection for East Ham last month had the Newham Independents winning the seat with 35%, Labour on 33%, the Greens on 14%, the Conservatives on 10% and Reform on 5% only beating the LDs on 3%.
Of course, a Labour loss is a Labour loss and if they are losing East Ham, that's existential.
Next year's local elections will be very informative.
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
Not much sign of any Reform headway in East London. The main threats to Labour here are the Greens and the pro-Palestine Newham Independents.
The JL Partners seat projection for East Ham last month had the Newham Independents winning the seat with 35%, Labour on 33%, the Greens on 14%, the Conservatives on 10% and Reform on 5% only beating the LDs on 3%.
Of course, a Labour loss is a Labour loss and if they are losing East Ham, that's existential.
Next year's local elections will be very informative.
I for one am amazed - amazed I tell you - that reform aren’t thriving in Newham with its << checks notes >> 15% white British population
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
As I said in the previous thread, these people haven't been radicalised against immigration by the boats but actually by the drum beat of ridiculous court judgements against deportation orders. The child molester who successfully blocked a deportation order because it would be hard on his kids was particularly dark.
It makes people feel as though we are no longer safe in our own country because we can't deport foreign criminals.
I sense it’s a mix of
1. Boat people - still coming 2. Swift demographic change in london 3. Now Visible Crime - shoplifting etc 4. And - as you say - this parade of absurd judicial decisions favouring non Britons at the expense of Britons
It’s still quite remarkable - to me. West london poshos happy to admit JOINING a party that the absurd @bondygoogoo claims is racist and fash
It ain’t just the red wall and Great Yarmouth. We shall see if it lasts…
Support for Reform definitely extends into the professional classes. The divisions they won in Broxbourne were the two wealthiest.
They carried plenty of rich wards in Kent.
That will be Kent where Reform campaigned on stopping the boats from arriving and then said - oops that's not in the county councils remit.
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
As I said in the previous thread, these people haven't been radicalised against immigration by the boats but actually by the drum beat of ridiculous court judgements against deportation orders. The child molester who successfully blocked a deportation order because it would be hard on his kids was particularly dark.
It makes people feel as though we are no longer safe in our own country because we can't deport foreign criminals.
I sense it’s a mix of
1. Boat people - still coming 2. Swift demographic change in london 3. Now Visible Crime - shoplifting etc 4. And - as you say - this parade of absurd judicial decisions favouring non Britons at the expense of Britons
It’s still quite remarkable - to me. West london poshos happy to admit JOINING a party that the absurd @bondygoogoo claims is racist and fash
It ain’t just the red wall and Great Yarmouth. We shall see if it lasts…
Support for Reform definitely extends into the professional classes. The divisions they won in Broxbourne were the two wealthiest.
They carried plenty of rich wards in Kent.
If this continues it’s a death warrant for the Tories
Nah. Fash fad.
They'll be ebarrassed as all hell by the next election.
What's discombobulated a lot of leftists today is that Starmer is conceding the intellectual argument. It's not just tactical positioning, and he will probably have to go further as the implications of the new consensus sink in. It's neither fash nor a fad.
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
As I said in the previous thread, these people haven't been radicalised against immigration by the boats but actually by the drum beat of ridiculous court judgements against deportation orders. The child molester who successfully blocked a deportation order because it would be hard on his kids was particularly dark.
It makes people feel as though we are no longer safe in our own country because we can't deport foreign criminals.
I sense it’s a mix of
1. Boat people - still coming 2. Swift demographic change in london 3. Now Visible Crime - shoplifting etc 4. And - as you say - this parade of absurd judicial decisions favouring non Britons at the expense of Britons
It’s still quite remarkable - to me. West london poshos happy to admit JOINING a party that the absurd @bondygoogoo claims is racist and fash
It ain’t just the red wall and Great Yarmouth. We shall see if it lasts…
Support for Reform definitely extends into the professional classes. The divisions they won in Broxbourne were the two wealthiest.
They carried plenty of rich wards in Kent.
That will be Kent where Reform campaigned on stopping the boats from arriving and then said - oops that's not in the county councils remit.
It’s about sending a message which, judging by Starmer’s speech today, may be working.
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
Sounded vaguely plausible, until Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards. Nobody sane ever carries their political party membership cards with them, surely? Mine has never left the house.
he is talking about a bunch of pretentious fannies here, I can quite believe it.
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
Probably best to keep this under your hat though. Earlier today Nigel was sneering at Sir Keir and his 'North London dinner parties'. Reform don't want to become associated with the thing they need everyone to despise.
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
As I said in the previous thread, these people haven't been radicalised against immigration by the boats but actually by the drum beat of ridiculous court judgements against deportation orders. The child molester who successfully blocked a deportation order because it would be hard on his kids was particularly dark.
It makes people feel as though we are no longer safe in our own country because we can't deport foreign criminals.
I sense it’s a mix of
1. Boat people - still coming 2. Swift demographic change in london 3. Now Visible Crime - shoplifting etc 4. And - as you say - this parade of absurd judicial decisions favouring non Britons at the expense of Britons
It’s still quite remarkable - to me. West london poshos happy to admit JOINING a party that the absurd @bondygoogoo claims is racist and fash
It ain’t just the red wall and Great Yarmouth. We shall see if it lasts…
Support for Reform definitely extends into the professional classes. The divisions they won in Broxbourne were the two wealthiest.
They carried plenty of rich wards in Kent.
If this continues it’s a death warrant for the Tories
Nah. Fash fad.
They'll be ebarrassed as all hell by the next election.
They won't.
First rule of politics is that the voters are right, even when they are calamitously, comically wrong.
See: the public understanding of what government spends money on, massively overestimating Foreign Aid, single mothers and MPs expenses and underestimating the NHS and pensions.
Or, since it's relevant here,
We asked respondents to estimate the proportion of UK immigration in each of these categories [By giving them 100 points to split between 4 categories]
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
Not much sign of any Reform headway in East London. The main threats to Labour here are the Greens and the pro-Palestine Newham Independents.
The JL Partners seat projection for East Ham last month had the Newham Independents winning the seat with 35%, Labour on 33%, the Greens on 14%, the Conservatives on 10% and Reform on 5% only beating the LDs on 3%.
Of course, a Labour loss is a Labour loss and if they are losing East Ham, that's existential.
Next year's local elections will be very informative.
I for one am amazed - amazed I tell you - that reform aren’t thriving in Newham with its << checks notes >> 15% white British population
You'd be surprised - concern about immigration isn't just limited to the white British population. We've seen recently how established Bengalis didn't take kindly to more socially conservative and politically radical new arrivals.
I was wondering that. Figured you more for one of the rude ones
ETA - but do you wear a lanyard? I don't, but I'm probably in the minority at work; I'm not sure what the official policy is or whether there is one, but no one has ever told me off for it.
I had one but didn't like wearing it, so it got waved at the door to the office and that was it.
I think the true "lanyard class" are the people who wander around with a lanyard after work when they don't need to be wearing it.
I usually see NHS admin staff doing this, although I've seen Council staff do it too.
It always makes me think that they need a label to tell them who they are.
Wearing a lanyard with ID outside is surely a disciplinary offence?
It certainly would be in some institutions.
If it is in the NHS then half the admin staff in Flatland Hospital need disciplining.
It is obviously taken as a badge of honour in some way - part of the uniform. It is not forgetfulness.
Maybe we should be happy that people are proud to work there.
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
As I said in the previous thread, these people haven't been radicalised against immigration by the boats but actually by the drum beat of ridiculous court judgements against deportation orders. The child molester who successfully blocked a deportation order because it would be hard on his kids was particularly dark.
It makes people feel as though we are no longer safe in our own country because we can't deport foreign criminals.
I sense it’s a mix of
1. Boat people - still coming 2. Swift demographic change in london 3. Now Visible Crime - shoplifting etc 4. And - as you say - this parade of absurd judicial decisions favouring non Britons at the expense of Britons
It’s still quite remarkable - to me. West london poshos happy to admit JOINING a party that the absurd @bondygoogoo claims is racist and fash
It ain’t just the red wall and Great Yarmouth. We shall see if it lasts…
Support for Reform definitely extends into the professional classes. The divisions they won in Broxbourne were the two wealthiest.
They carried plenty of rich wards in Kent.
If this continues it’s a death warrant for the Tories
Nah. Fash fad.
They'll be ebarrassed as all hell by the next election.
What's discombobulated a lot of leftists today is that Starmer is conceding the intellectual argument. It's not just tactical positioning, and he will probably have to go further as the implications of the new consensus sink in. It's neither fash nor a fad.
Yes it’s a huge tectonic move. Labour are now an “anti immigration” party. Openly hostile to large numbers
The phrase “island of strangers” has really struck me. It’s an excellent pithy phrase. It captures a definite mood. And it’s three simple words. It’s like dom “take back control” Cummings at his best
It is also an enormous risk. They could lose vast chunks of voters - esp BME/Muslim - to greens and libs. And not get any reform returners
However it’s probably a risk they have to take given their dire polling, the terrible election results and the obvious vibe shift across the country
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
[swaggering] I voted for the Brexit Party at the 2019 Euro elections, man
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
Sounded vaguely plausible, until Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards. Nobody sane ever carries their political party membership cards with them, surely? Mine has never left the house.
he is talking about a bunch of pretentious fannies here, I can quite believe it.
I'm sure Leon's friends are all perfectly nice people in the flesh, but he always manages to make them sound absolutely bloody awful.
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
As I said in the previous thread, these people haven't been radicalised against immigration by the boats but actually by the drum beat of ridiculous court judgements against deportation orders. The child molester who successfully blocked a deportation order because it would be hard on his kids was particularly dark.
It makes people feel as though we are no longer safe in our own country because we can't deport foreign criminals.
I sense it’s a mix of
1. Boat people - still coming 2. Swift demographic change in london 3. Now Visible Crime - shoplifting etc 4. And - as you say - this parade of absurd judicial decisions favouring non Britons at the expense of Britons
It’s still quite remarkable - to me. West london poshos happy to admit JOINING a party that the absurd @bondygoogoo claims is racist and fash
It ain’t just the red wall and Great Yarmouth. We shall see if it lasts…
Support for Reform definitely extends into the professional classes. The divisions they won in Broxbourne were the two wealthiest.
They carried plenty of rich wards in Kent.
If this continues it’s a death warrant for the Tories
Nah. Fash fad.
They'll be ebarrassed as all hell by the next election.
They won't.
First rule of politics is that the voters are right, even when they are calamitously, comically wrong.
See: the public understanding of what government spends money on, massively overestimating Foreign Aid, single mothers and MPs expenses and underestimating the NHS and pensions.
Or, since it's relevant here,
We asked respondents to estimate the proportion of UK immigration in each of these categories [By giving them 100 points to split between 4 categories]
Getting people to abandon a misconception is bloody difficult. I find it hard, and it's my job and I'm relatively good at it.
And I don't have opportunistic scumbags repeating the misconceptions all the time.
To be fair, there is a reasonable distinction to be made between redistribution and direct government spending. Including benefits as a way of making the foreign aid budget look small is a sleight of hand.
In other news, I've been playing Clair Obscur Expedition 33 in the evenings, it's absolutely captivating. Absolute cinema in every single scene, made by a development team of 30 plus about 20 or so contractors. It's so good that even my wife watches from the sidelines rather than read her book. In one of the early prologue scenes she cried at the end, I don't think I've ever seen that happen for her outside of a few movies. Anyone who's even a little bit interested should play it, on story mode if necessary, I think it's probably the best bit of media that's come out in ages.
It will sweep the board for game of the year and it's estimated that the total cost was about €15m and it's above 2m in sales already, so about €70m in revenue. The game is completely upending the industry, it's better than almost every game released in the last 20 years, it's got incredible production values and it didn't need a 3000 person development team.
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
As I said in the previous thread, these people haven't been radicalised against immigration by the boats but actually by the drum beat of ridiculous court judgements against deportation orders. The child molester who successfully blocked a deportation order because it would be hard on his kids was particularly dark.
It makes people feel as though we are no longer safe in our own country because we can't deport foreign criminals.
I sense it’s a mix of
1. Boat people - still coming 2. Swift demographic change in london 3. Now Visible Crime - shoplifting etc 4. And - as you say - this parade of absurd judicial decisions favouring non Britons at the expense of Britons
It’s still quite remarkable - to me. West london poshos happy to admit JOINING a party that the absurd @bondygoogoo claims is racist and fash
It ain’t just the red wall and Great Yarmouth. We shall see if it lasts…
Support for Reform definitely extends into the professional classes. The divisions they won in Broxbourne were the two wealthiest.
They carried plenty of rich wards in Kent.
If this continues it’s a death warrant for the Tories
Nah. Fash fad.
They'll be ebarrassed as all hell by the next election.
What's discombobulated a lot of leftists today is that Starmer is conceding the intellectual argument. It's not just tactical positioning, and he will probably have to go further as the implications of the new consensus sink in. It's neither fash nor a fad.
Yes it’s a huge tectonic move. Labour are now an “anti immigration” party. Openly hostile to large numbers
The phrase “island of strangers” has really struck me. It’s an excellent pithy phrase. It captures a definite mood. And it’s three simple words. It’s like dom “take back control” Cummings at his best
It is also an enormous risk. They could lose vast chunks of voters - esp BME/Muslim - to greens and libs. And not get any reform returners
However it’s probably a risk they have to take given their dire polling, the terrible election results and the obvious vibe shift across the country
Now is the time for the Lib Dems. They can position themselves as the party of mass inward migration, the current status quo effectively.
You’d be surprised how many BME Brits aren’t enamoured with mass inward migration.
As for the Muslim vote. A lot of that has gone at the moment due to labours avowedly pro-Israel stance on Gaza.
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
As I said in the previous thread, these people haven't been radicalised against immigration by the boats but actually by the drum beat of ridiculous court judgements against deportation orders. The child molester who successfully blocked a deportation order because it would be hard on his kids was particularly dark.
It makes people feel as though we are no longer safe in our own country because we can't deport foreign criminals.
I sense it’s a mix of
1. Boat people - still coming 2. Swift demographic change in london 3. Now Visible Crime - shoplifting etc 4. And - as you say - this parade of absurd judicial decisions favouring non Britons at the expense of Britons
It’s still quite remarkable - to me. West london poshos happy to admit JOINING a party that the absurd @bondygoogoo claims is racist and fash
It ain’t just the red wall and Great Yarmouth. We shall see if it lasts…
Support for Reform definitely extends into the professional classes. The divisions they won in Broxbourne were the two wealthiest.
They carried plenty of rich wards in Kent.
If this continues it’s a death warrant for the Tories
Nah. Fash fad.
They'll be ebarrassed as all hell by the next election.
What's discombobulated a lot of leftists today is that Starmer is conceding the intellectual argument. It's not just tactical positioning, and he will probably have to go further as the implications of the new consensus sink in. It's neither fash nor a fad.
Yes it’s a huge tectonic move. Labour are now an “anti immigration” party. Openly hostile to large numbers
The phrase “island of strangers” has really struck me. It’s an excellent pithy phrase. It captures a definite mood. And it’s three simple words. It’s like dom “take back control” Cummings at his best
It is also an enormous risk. They could lose vast chunks of voters - esp BME/Muslim - to greens and libs. And not get any reform returners
However it’s probably a risk they have to take given their dire polling, the terrible election results and the obvious vibe shift across the country
Yup, I think Starmer had a good morning, but ultimately it needs to be followed up with action and visible deportations of illegals and criminals as well as halting boat arrivals. I actually think the bigger risk for Labour would be to do nothing and hope that enough people will vote against Reform because they don't like Nige.
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
Sounded vaguely plausible, until Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards. Nobody sane ever carries their political party membership cards with them, surely? Mine has never left the house.
It’s digital. On your phone. Twit
Damn, there was something very romantic about the idea of carrying your membership card around at all times. 😊
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
Sounded vaguely plausible, until Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards. Nobody sane ever carries their political party membership cards with them, surely? Mine has never left the house.
he is talking about a bunch of pretentious fannies here, I can quite believe it.
I'm sure Leon's friends are all perfectly nice people in the flesh, but he always manages to make them sound absolutely bloody awful.
It comes of excessive sobriety. My theory is
- half a bottle of bubbly per person before the meal (or cocktails) - a bottle per person per course, with Tokay for the desert and something interesting with the cheese.
I've never had problems with people talking politics at the table.
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
As I said in the previous thread, these people haven't been radicalised against immigration by the boats but actually by the drum beat of ridiculous court judgements against deportation orders. The child molester who successfully blocked a deportation order because it would be hard on his kids was particularly dark.
It makes people feel as though we are no longer safe in our own country because we can't deport foreign criminals.
I sense it’s a mix of
1. Boat people - still coming 2. Swift demographic change in london 3. Now Visible Crime - shoplifting etc 4. And - as you say - this parade of absurd judicial decisions favouring non Britons at the expense of Britons
It’s still quite remarkable - to me. West london poshos happy to admit JOINING a party that the absurd @bondygoogoo claims is racist and fash
It ain’t just the red wall and Great Yarmouth. We shall see if it lasts…
Support for Reform definitely extends into the professional classes. The divisions they won in Broxbourne were the two wealthiest.
They carried plenty of rich wards in Kent.
If this continues it’s a death warrant for the Tories
Nah. Fash fad.
They'll be ebarrassed as all hell by the next election.
What's discombobulated a lot of leftists today is that Starmer is conceding the intellectual argument. It's not just tactical positioning, and he will probably have to go further as the implications of the new consensus sink in. It's neither fash nor a fad.
Yes it’s a huge tectonic move. Labour are now an “anti immigration” party. Openly hostile to large numbers
The phrase “island of strangers” has really struck me. It’s an excellent pithy phrase. It captures a definite mood. And it’s three simple words. It’s like dom “take back control” Cummings at his best
It is also an enormous risk. They could lose vast chunks of voters - esp BME/Muslim - to greens and libs. And not get any reform returners
However it’s probably a risk they have to take given their dire polling, the terrible election results and the obvious vibe shift across the country
Yup, I think Starmer had a good morning, but ultimately it needs to be followed up with action and visible deportations of illegals and criminals as well as halting boat arrivals. I actually think the bigger risk for Labour would be to do nothing and hope that enough people will vote against Reform because they don't like Nige.
I remain to be convinced. Starmer is ok at producing soundbites hinting at action, "smash the gangs" comes to mind, but bloody awful at actual delivery. And every time he fails to deliver it hurts him just that little bit more.
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
Sounded vaguely plausible, until Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards. Nobody sane ever carries their political party membership cards with them, surely? Mine has never left the house.
he is talking about a bunch of pretentious fannies here, I can quite believe it.
I'm sure Leon's friends are all perfectly nice people in the flesh, but he always manages to make them sound absolutely bloody awful.
It comes of excessive sobriety. My theory is
- half a bottle of bubbly per person before the meal (or cocktails) - a bottle per person per course, with Tokay for the desert and something interesting with the cheese.
I've never had problems with people talking politics at the table.
Coincidentally - someone - I’m not sure who - has just sent me TWENTY FIVE BOTTLES of English artisanal gin, vodka and rye whisky
I’m not joking
I’m guessing it is a gazette reader who knows I like a tipple and hopes I will talk about them and publicise them?
Nobody likes immigration until they need immigrants. Perhaps the NHS can operate by recruiting a million of the famous nine million inactives. We shall see.
The context of the "island of strangers" comment is interesting.
"We risk becoming an island of strangers, not a nation that walks forward together".
“Migration is part of Britain’s national story. We talked last week about the great rebuilding of this country after the war.
“Migrants were a part of that, and they bring massive contributions today, and you will never hear me denigrate that.
“But when people come to our country, they should also commit to integration.”
It's not about immigration, it's about integration. There was a time when if you came here you had little choice but to integrate but now I'd argue it's much easier to maintain a cultural linkage to their country of origin whether it's via the food shop, the barbers, the dedicated satellite tv channel or the Internet in general.
Technology and capitalism have empowered multiculturalism - it becomes possible not to integrate, to function with barely any English language skills. Should we be closing the Romanian food shops, the Romanian barbers, the Church and shop for those from Brazil or sub-Saharan Africa, the Albanian cafe?
I suspect not but Starmer has made the road to citizenship harder (will this be applied to those who obtained "settled status" when we left the European Union?). As a comparison, you need to be resident in New Zealand for five years tro become a citizen.
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
As I said in the previous thread, these people haven't been radicalised against immigration by the boats but actually by the drum beat of ridiculous court judgements against deportation orders. The child molester who successfully blocked a deportation order because it would be hard on his kids was particularly dark.
It makes people feel as though we are no longer safe in our own country because we can't deport foreign criminals.
I sense it’s a mix of
1. Boat people - still coming 2. Swift demographic change in london 3. Now Visible Crime - shoplifting etc 4. And - as you say - this parade of absurd judicial decisions favouring non Britons at the expense of Britons
It’s still quite remarkable - to me. West london poshos happy to admit JOINING a party that the absurd @bondygoogoo claims is racist and fash
It ain’t just the red wall and Great Yarmouth. We shall see if it lasts…
Support for Reform definitely extends into the professional classes. The divisions they won in Broxbourne were the two wealthiest.
They carried plenty of rich wards in Kent.
If this continues it’s a death warrant for the Tories
Nah. Fash fad.
They'll be ebarrassed as all hell by the next election.
What's discombobulated a lot of leftists today is that Starmer is conceding the intellectual argument. It's not just tactical positioning, and he will probably have to go further as the implications of the new consensus sink in. It's neither fash nor a fad.
Yes it’s a huge tectonic move. Labour are now an “anti immigration” party. Openly hostile to large numbers
The phrase “island of strangers” has really struck me. It’s an excellent pithy phrase. It captures a definite mood. And it’s three simple words. It’s like dom “take back control” Cummings at his best
It is also an enormous risk. They could lose vast chunks of voters - esp BME/Muslim - to greens and libs. And not get any reform returners
However it’s probably a risk they have to take given their dire polling, the terrible election results and the obvious vibe shift across the country
Yup, I think Starmer had a good morning, but ultimately it needs to be followed up with action and visible deportations of illegals and criminals as well as halting boat arrivals. I actually think the bigger risk for Labour would be to do nothing and hope that enough people will vote against Reform because they don't like Nige.
I remain to be convinced. Starmer is ok at producing soundbites hinting at action, "smash the gangs" comes to mind, but bloody awful at actual delivery. And every time he fails to deliver it hurts him just that little bit more.
We shall see.
Yes, but there does seem to be more specific policy this time than just "smash the gangs". Ultimately, if they really want to stop the boats Labour are going to need to introduce their own version of the Rwanda scheme they so stupidly threw away. This is the first step to reversing that policy, I am sceptical also that they have the cojones to face down the civil service, courts etc... and just declare that parliament is sovereign and dare the judges to override primary legislation on deportations. That's realistically what it needs and how does the former DPP and human rights lawyer handle basically putting the legal system back in it's box?
Starmer's latest is that he is going to charge a 6% levy on the £12bn Universities get from foreign students. I mean, jeez. It's not as if we have an absolute crisis in University finances is it? Let's make that worse. The man is a muppet (and I apologise unreservedly to Kermit and Ms Piggy in making that allegation).
The Tories desperately need to select a brilliant candidate for the London Mayorality, and for Reform to select a useless minor celebrity who will decide half way through the campaign that they can't be bothered.
I would still say the best idea is to give Boris a thorough sheep shearing (and dip) and take a punt on the Bojo magic reminding people of the good times.
Boris is cooked in London after Brexit, better would be for Cleverly to be Tory candidate for London Mayor and bring back Boris as Leader of the Conservative Party before the next GE as the Tories best hope to see off Farage and Starmer.
As MiC found in their poll last week only a Johnson led Conservatives would now lead Reform and Labour, a Badenoch, Jenrick, even Cameron led Tories would still trail and a Sunak led Tories at best tie with Reform
I know you think that but I'm unconvinced.
I just find it curious that people think Bozo would win a by election which is step 1 to becoming party leader again.
I mean unless he was given the safest of safe seats everyone would be focussed on making sure he lost the election
Given Boris gets an automatic 5% bounce for the Tories as leader on that poll of course he would hold any seat the Tories held even under Sunak, likely with an increased majority
Starmer's latest is that he is going to charge a 6% levy on the £12bn Universities get from foreign students. I mean, jeez. It's not as if we have an absolute crisis in University finances is it? Let's make that worse. The man is a muppet (and I apologise unreservedly to Kermit and Ms Piggy in making that allegation).
It's an excellent idea, force the university sector to make cuts to the huge bureaucracies they have.
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
As I said in the previous thread, these people haven't been radicalised against immigration by the boats but actually by the drum beat of ridiculous court judgements against deportation orders. The child molester who successfully blocked a deportation order because it would be hard on his kids was particularly dark.
It makes people feel as though we are no longer safe in our own country because we can't deport foreign criminals.
I sense it’s a mix of
1. Boat people - still coming 2. Swift demographic change in london 3. Now Visible Crime - shoplifting etc 4. And - as you say - this parade of absurd judicial decisions favouring non Britons at the expense of Britons
It’s still quite remarkable - to me. West london poshos happy to admit JOINING a party that the absurd @bondygoogoo claims is racist and fash
It ain’t just the red wall and Great Yarmouth. We shall see if it lasts…
Support for Reform definitely extends into the professional classes. The divisions they won in Broxbourne were the two wealthiest.
They carried plenty of rich wards in Kent.
If this continues it’s a death warrant for the Tories
Nah. Fash fad.
They'll be ebarrassed as all hell by the next election.
What's discombobulated a lot of leftists today is that Starmer is conceding the intellectual argument. It's not just tactical positioning, and he will probably have to go further as the implications of the new consensus sink in. It's neither fash nor a fad.
Yes it’s a huge tectonic move. Labour are now an “anti immigration” party. Openly hostile to large numbers
The phrase “island of strangers” has really struck me. It’s an excellent pithy phrase. It captures a definite mood. And it’s three simple words. It’s like dom “take back control” Cummings at his best
It is also an enormous risk. They could lose vast chunks of voters - esp BME/Muslim - to greens and libs. And not get any reform returners
However it’s probably a risk they have to take given their dire polling, the terrible election results and the obvious vibe shift across the country
Yup, I think Starmer had a good morning, but ultimately it needs to be followed up with action and visible deportations of illegals and criminals as well as halting boat arrivals. I actually think the bigger risk for Labour would be to do nothing and hope that enough people will vote against Reform because they don't like Nige.
I remain to be convinced. Starmer is ok at producing soundbites hinting at action, "smash the gangs" comes to mind, but bloody awful at actual delivery. And every time he fails to deliver it hurts him just that little bit more.
We shall see.
Too many politicians in all parties confuse making an announcement with actually changing anything almost seeming to think they are some minor deity where saying let there be light means there will be
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
As I said in the previous thread, these people haven't been radicalised against immigration by the boats but actually by the drum beat of ridiculous court judgements against deportation orders. The child molester who successfully blocked a deportation order because it would be hard on his kids was particularly dark.
It makes people feel as though we are no longer safe in our own country because we can't deport foreign criminals.
I sense it’s a mix of
1. Boat people - still coming 2. Swift demographic change in london 3. Now Visible Crime - shoplifting etc 4. And - as you say - this parade of absurd judicial decisions favouring non Britons at the expense of Britons
It’s still quite remarkable - to me. West london poshos happy to admit JOINING a party that the absurd @bondygoogoo claims is racist and fash
It ain’t just the red wall and Great Yarmouth. We shall see if it lasts…
Support for Reform definitely extends into the professional classes. The divisions they won in Broxbourne were the two wealthiest.
They carried plenty of rich wards in Kent.
If this continues it’s a death warrant for the Tories
Nah. Fash fad.
They'll be ebarrassed as all hell by the next election.
What's discombobulated a lot of leftists today is that Starmer is conceding the intellectual argument. It's not just tactical positioning, and he will probably have to go further as the implications of the new consensus sink in. It's neither fash nor a fad.
Yes it’s a huge tectonic move. Labour are now an “anti immigration” party. Openly hostile to large numbers
The phrase “island of strangers” has really struck me. It’s an excellent pithy phrase. It captures a definite mood. And it’s three simple words. It’s like dom “take back control” Cummings at his best
It is also an enormous risk. They could lose vast chunks of voters - esp BME/Muslim - to greens and libs. And not get any reform returners
However it’s probably a risk they have to take given their dire polling, the terrible election results and the obvious vibe shift across the country
Yup, I think Starmer had a good morning, but ultimately it needs to be followed up with action and visible deportations of illegals and criminals as well as halting boat arrivals. I actually think the bigger risk for Labour would be to do nothing and hope that enough people will vote against Reform because they don't like Nige.
The Tories desperately need to select a brilliant candidate for the London Mayorality, and for Reform to select a useless minor celebrity who will decide half way through the campaign that they can't be bothered.
I would still say the best idea is to give Boris a thorough sheep shearing (and dip) and take a punt on the Bojo magic reminding people of the good times.
Boris is cooked in London after Brexit, better would be for Cleverly to be Tory candidate for London Mayor and bring back Boris as Leader of the Conservative Party before the next GE as the Tories best hope to see off Farage and Starmer
I think rather the opposite - Boris could be elected once again as London Mayor, but no chance nationally.
Well you are wrong.
Boris failed to win in London even in 2019, nationally however MiC found last week a Johnson led Conservative Party would be on 26%, up 5% from where they are with Kemi. Reform would be on 23%, down 6% from their current 29%, with Labour unchanged on 22% and the LDs down 1% to 15%
You're definitely siezed of those MiC results, aren't you!
Give it a year and if we see more polls like that Tory MPs will literally be heading to Oxfordshire to lick Boris' shoes and begging him to return.
I can’t see it personally. It was a mistake to get rid of him when they did, but his goose is cooked after the immigration he allowed. Farage would tear him to bits and Starmer would just laugh. The Cameroons hate him, and the Reform inclined feel let down by him, and probably prefer Farage anyway, so what’s his appeal?
Charisma and personality and oomph.
Even on that poll Reform still get 23% even against Boris but Boris is the only Tory who takes the lead, with the Conservatives reaching 26% under a returned Johnson leadership and Labour fall to third on 22%.
So Boris would probably have to make Farage DPM or get Reform confidence and supply but he would save at risk Tory MPs and win back some seats from Labour he won in 2019 the Tories lost last year
I still think my strategy is better.
You argue that Boris's Tories lost parliamentary elections in London, but that’s not the same at all as Boris losing as Mayor to Sadiq Khan.
He has a far better record as London Mayor than he does as PM. He was actually pretty good in London.
He wouldn't need to get a Westminster seat to stand in London (always a danger he'd fail to even do that, as Reform will at least split his vote, if not outright beat him).
Even if he loses, if he performs above expectations (which are nil) in London that still leaves the possibility of a future parliamentary run.
The Tories need to beat Reform at the next general election or they may well go extinct.
Doing slightly better in a London Mayor election is a complete irrelevance compared to that
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
As I said in the previous thread, these people haven't been radicalised against immigration by the boats but actually by the drum beat of ridiculous court judgements against deportation orders. The child molester who successfully blocked a deportation order because it would be hard on his kids was particularly dark.
It makes people feel as though we are no longer safe in our own country because we can't deport foreign criminals.
I sense it’s a mix of
1. Boat people - still coming 2. Swift demographic change in london 3. Now Visible Crime - shoplifting etc 4. And - as you say - this parade of absurd judicial decisions favouring non Britons at the expense of Britons
It’s still quite remarkable - to me. West london poshos happy to admit JOINING a party that the absurd @bondygoogoo claims is racist and fash
It ain’t just the red wall and Great Yarmouth. We shall see if it lasts…
Support for Reform definitely extends into the professional classes. The divisions they won in Broxbourne were the two wealthiest.
They carried plenty of rich wards in Kent.
If this continues it’s a death warrant for the Tories
Nah. Fash fad.
They'll be ebarrassed as all hell by the next election.
What's discombobulated a lot of leftists today is that Starmer is conceding the intellectual argument. It's not just tactical positioning, and he will probably have to go further as the implications of the new consensus sink in. It's neither fash nor a fad.
Yes it’s a huge tectonic move. Labour are now an “anti immigration” party. Openly hostile to large numbers
The phrase “island of strangers” has really struck me. It’s an excellent pithy phrase. It captures a definite mood. And it’s three simple words. It’s like dom “take back control” Cummings at his best
It is also an enormous risk. They could lose vast chunks of voters - esp BME/Muslim - to greens and libs. And not get any reform returners
However it’s probably a risk they have to take given their dire polling, the terrible election results and the obvious vibe shift across the country
Yup, I think Starmer had a good morning, but ultimately it needs to be followed up with action and visible deportations of illegals and criminals as well as halting boat arrivals. I actually think the bigger risk for Labour would be to do nothing and hope that enough people will vote against Reform because they don't like Nige.
I remain to be convinced. Starmer is ok at producing soundbites hinting at action, "smash the gangs" comes to mind, but bloody awful at actual delivery. And every time he fails to deliver it hurts him just that little bit more.
We shall see.
Too many politicians in all parties confuse making an announcement with actually changing anything almost seeming to think they are some minor deity where saying let there be light means there will be
Among democratic societies that only works in the USA.
Comments
He's also got convictions for wounding a police office and assaulting a female police officer, and he got into trouble for not paying over £1 million in owed tax. So, all in all, he'll fit in great in Reform UK.
Even on that poll Reform still get 23% even against Boris but Boris is the only Tory who takes the lead, with the Conservatives reaching 26% under a returned Johnson leadership and Labour fall to third on 22%.
So Boris would probably have to make Farage DPM or get Reform confidence and supply but he would save at risk Tory MPs and win back some seats from Labour he won in 2019 the Tories lost last year
The government, reflecting its ideological background perhaps, tended towards stick more than carrot. Colleagues presented other evidence that stick is less effective, e.g. there was a lot of criticism of the aggressive policing approach.
Ant McPartlin: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ant_McPartlin
She and Bojo can have a joust for the candidacy on Boris Bikes with Clean Up Clapham yard brushes.
You argue that Boris's Tories lost parliamentary elections in London, but that’s not the same at all as Boris losing as Mayor to Sadiq Khan.
He has a far better record as London Mayor than he does as PM. He was actually pretty good in London.
He wouldn't need to get a Westminster seat to stand in London (always a danger he'd fail to even do that, as Reform will at least split his vote, if not outright beat him).
Even if he loses, if he performs above expectations (which are nil) in London that still leaves the possibility of a future parliamentary run.
I mean unless he was given the safest of safe seats everyone would be focussed on making sure he lost the election
And even more recently in the news when his company went bankrupt owing over a million in tax.
Seems like prime Reform material.
Wikipedia tells me he's a convicted criminal, and banned from being a company director.
REPORTER: Why are you creating an expedited path into the country for Afrikaners but not others?
TRUMP: Because they're being killed. And we don't want to see people be killed ... it's a genocide that's taking place. Farmers are being killed. They happen to be white.
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1921940869407481962
Ideology:
Conservatism (Australian)
Liberalism (Australian)
Liberal conservatism
Factions:
Social conservatism
Economic liberalism
Right-wing populism
Political position: Centre-right to right-wing
National affiliation: Liberal–National Coalition
Regional affiliation: Asia Pacific Democracy Union
International affiliation: International Democracy Union
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Party_of_Australia
After a quick scroll through this list;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_Conservative_MPs_(2024–present)
I think there is exactly one seat (Harrow E) where the Conservatives had an absolute majority last year. Looking at the other seats at that end of the list, they look either too vulnerable (Arundel would go to the Lib Dems as easily as a ripe plum plucked from the tree), or fail the Carrie "that's blooming miles away" test (e.g. Richmond & Northallerton).
Plotting a return for Boris is a bit like Operation Sealion; a fun game to imagine how it could be made to work, but not realistic.
Though every step of that is a low-probability event.
In any case, would Johnson even want to return, given his other more trouble-free commitments, and the risks that coming out of retirement would bring (one of which might be that there just isn't that Boris Magic any more)?
They spent the best part of their 12 years in power promising to reduce migration, campaigning to end open borders via Brexit, talk of stopping the boats etc. Yet net migration skyrocketed to such levels that even internationalist liberals like me think we need to bring numbers down very considerably. And the Tories have no one to blame but themselves - who would trust them on it again?
Labour will never outflank Reform on the right. But they can try to fix unsustainable immigration that makes the housing shortage they are (inevitably, slowly) trying to fix worse. That will put the Tories in the uncomfortable place of being third most trusted on migration.
Dr Pack has another one (yes, of course he would report it).
The three other councillors who Reform has shed are Donna Edmunds (suspended by Reform UK and then quit the party), Luke Shingler (now listed as an independent) and Desmond Clarke (resigned as councillor).
UPDATE: The Northern Echo reports confirmation that Andrew Kilburn has resigned and a by-election will be happening.
https://www.markpack.org.uk/174691/has-reform-uk-shed-a-fourth-councillor-andrew-kilburn/
They don't seem to be saving money on byelections.
I think the true "lanyard class" are the people who wander around with a lanyard after work when they don't need to be wearing it.
I usually see NHS admin staff doing this, although I've seen Council staff do it too.
It always makes me think that they need a label to tell them who they are.
Just had meeting with an old friend. Movie agent. Extremely well connected - personally knows half the Cabinet and has supper parties with ex prime ministers etc
Lives in a big house in Notting Hill
She’s unusually right wing for her posh liberal arty social circle. And getting more right wing
She and her husband threw a big dinner party the other day and it got quite drunken and she and her husband decided to shock everyone by saying “we voted Reform and we’re thinking of joining them”
They didn’t get the shock value they hoped. Why? Three people around the table got out their Reform membership cards - they’d already joined. Almost everyone else said Yeah we’re thinking of doing the same
This is posh west london. If THEY are going Reform then
1. The Tories are in desperate trouble and
2. Reform are doing even better than we thought. They’re not just winning Clacton they’re winning the chattering classes in W11
Huh, interesting.
Fun and games in London with a partial power failure on the underground and overground networks but as it's London plenty of alternatives to get from A to B (via C, D or X).
The London poll from Find Out Now is interesting but plenty of caveats - the first one is 23% Don't Knows among men and 40% DKs among women so fetch me a large bucket of salt.
Not sure I wholly agree with their constituency predictions if I'm being honest but it's all conjecture at this stage. Of greater import are the Mayoral numbers suggesting "the Labour candidate" would still win a poll conducted on FPTP - having got rid of the proportionality, the Conservatives might end up getting stung by it.
2026 sees local elections in London and clearly an opportunity for Reform to expand their councillor base in London (such as it is). Of greater import may be the impact on Conservative local Government fortunes in London but a year is an eternity in politics.
It makes people feel as though we are no longer safe in our own country because we can't deport foreign criminals.
It's your employer saying - you are so unimportant to us, we need help remembering who you are.
I no longer wear a lanyard and it is liberating!
The PB takes on this (utterly unimportant) subject are quite ridiculous.
1. Boat people - still coming
2. Swift demographic change in london
3. Now Visible Crime - shoplifting etc
4. And - as you say - this parade of absurd judicial decisions favouring non Britons at the expense of Britons
It’s still quite remarkable - to me. West london poshos happy to admit JOINING a party that the absurd @bondygoogoo claims is racist and fash
It ain’t just the red wall and Great Yarmouth. We shall see if it lasts…
I'll likely be so tired at the end of each day that I will fall asleep wearing it.
They carried plenty of rich wards in Kent.
Sorry, too fucking boring to continue. Twit.
They'll be ebarrassed as all hell by the next election.
The JL Partners seat projection for East Ham last month had the Newham Independents winning the seat with 35%, Labour on 33%, the Greens on 14%, the Conservatives on 10% and Reform on 5% only beating the LDs on 3%.
Of course, a Labour loss is a Labour loss and if they are losing East Ham, that's existential.
Next year's local elections will be very informative.
Sir Keir and his 'North London dinner parties'. Reform don't want to become associated with the thing they need everyone to despise.
First rule of politics is that the voters are right, even when they are calamitously, comically wrong.
See: the public understanding of what government spends money on, massively overestimating Foreign Aid, single mothers and MPs expenses and underestimating the NHS and pensions.
Or, since it's relevant here,
We asked respondents to estimate the proportion of UK immigration in each of these categories [By giving them 100 points to split between 4 categories]
Asylum: estimate 37% (actual: 7%)
Family: estimate 17% (actual 6%)
Work: estimate 26% (actual 40%)
Study: estimate 19% (actual 38%)
https://bsky.app/profile/sundersays.bsky.social/post/3l4hotxkl7e2h
Getting people to abandon a misconception is bloody difficult. I find it hard, and it's my job and I'm relatively good at it.
And I don't have opportunistic scumbags repeating the misconceptions all the time.
If it is in the NHS then half the admin staff in Flatland Hospital need disciplining.
It is obviously taken as a badge of honour in some way - part of the uniform. It is not forgetfulness.
Maybe we should be happy that people are proud to work there.
The phrase “island of strangers” has really struck me. It’s an excellent pithy phrase. It captures a definite mood. And it’s three simple words. It’s like dom “take back control” Cummings at his best
It is also an enormous risk. They could lose vast chunks of voters - esp BME/Muslim - to greens and libs. And not get any reform returners
However it’s probably a risk they have to take given their dire polling, the terrible election results and the obvious vibe shift across the country
It will sweep the board for game of the year and it's estimated that the total cost was about €15m and it's above 2m in sales already, so about €70m in revenue. The game is completely upending the industry, it's better than almost every game released in the last 20 years, it's got incredible production values and it didn't need a 3000 person development team.
They now have four years to do it.
If they do it, they win. Otherwise it’s Nigel’s turn.
Really as simple as that.
You’d be surprised how many BME Brits aren’t enamoured with mass inward migration.
As for the Muslim vote. A lot of that has gone at the moment due to labours avowedly pro-Israel stance on Gaza.
- half a bottle of bubbly per person before the meal (or cocktails)
- a bottle per person per course, with Tokay for the desert and something interesting with the cheese.
I've never had problems with people talking politics at the table.
We shall see.
We're warned by the Mirror of 'a scorching Sunday' and 'the NHS has issued advice for those venturing out'.
It's 26C. Get a grip, honestly. I truly detest this patronising crap.
Enjoy the sunshine, it's going to be a lovely day.
https://nitter.poast.org/RupertLowe10/status/1921450356929606123#m
You don't need me to tell you who won.
I’m not joking
I’m guessing it is a gazette reader who knows I like a tipple and hopes I will talk about them and publicise them?
TWENTY FIVE BOTTLES
Look!
"We risk becoming an island of strangers, not a nation that walks forward together".
“Migration is part of Britain’s national story. We talked last week about the great rebuilding of this country after the war.
“Migrants were a part of that, and they bring massive contributions today, and you will never hear me denigrate that.
“But when people come to our country, they should also commit to integration.”
It's not about immigration, it's about integration. There was a time when if you came here you had little choice but to integrate but now I'd argue it's much easier to maintain a cultural linkage to their country of origin whether it's via the food shop, the barbers, the dedicated satellite tv channel or the Internet in general.
Technology and capitalism have empowered multiculturalism - it becomes possible not to integrate, to function with barely any English language skills. Should we be closing the Romanian food shops, the Romanian barbers, the Church and shop for those from Brazil or sub-Saharan Africa, the Albanian cafe?
I suspect not but Starmer has made the road to citizenship harder (will this be applied to those who obtained "settled status" when we left the European Union?). As a comparison, you need to be resident in New Zealand for five years tro become a citizen.
I’m keeping the gin
I’ve just been sent £2000 worth of booze. For no obvious reason
Doing slightly better in a London Mayor election is a complete irrelevance compared to that
https://www.thewhiskyexchange.com/p/82096/fielden-harvest-2019-rye-whisky