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She may be gone but the Truss legacy still endures – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,614
edited May 28 in General
She may be gone but the Truss legacy still endures – politicalbetting.com

Chris Philp says Nigel Farage's spending plans are "Liz Truss on steroids".The only snag is he was No2 in the Treasury in her government and gave the mini-Budget "9.5 out of 10".www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/top-to…

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  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,838
    First, and you're right.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,760
    Labour should be producing semi misleading adverts pointing out how much more variable rate mortgages were costing under Liz vs. now...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,359
    Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,337
    Two stars and a wish, as we say in schools:

    * at last, a proper bit of blue-on-turquoise attack action
    * the huge benefit of being true

    ♡ best not to remind us all of the Truss weeks.

    But the best effort for a while.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,778
    edited May 12
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    During a recent trip to the US, where I spoke with many members of what I suppose are the global financial elite, I was heartened and proud to see that Britain had furnished the world with a new gold standard. The phrase "Truss event" has become a global shorthand for any kind of enormously stupid policy error quickly reversed after a bond market rout. So beautiful to see us once again a commanding figure on the world stage.

    The “cabbage vs insane political figure/policy” is also now a universally understood part of the discourse of politics. UK tabloid humour has gone international it seems!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,795
    dixiedean said:

    Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch.

    It's almost as if the Tories actively want to be on 10% in the polls.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    Seventh. Like Truss in the list of best PMs since 2010.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    On topic, fortunately for Philp, no-one knows who he is or what he was doing in 2022.

    But he is right and while it might be embarrassing for him, he can at least argue that he saw the implosion first-hand so is well-placed to comment.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,378
    edited May 12
    If the Tories are really lucky though Liz Truss might defect to Reform

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2025/04/would-reform-be-mad-to-accept-liz-truss

    https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/one-third-britons-say-they-would-view-reform-uk-more-negatively-if-liz-truss-were-join-party
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,304
    And yet, she still believes that she is a misunderstood political giant.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1921885064612159914

    Westminster Voting Intention [London]:

    LAB: 30% (-13)
    RFM: 19% (+10)
    CON: 17% (-4)
    LDM: 16% (+5)
    GRN: 15% (+5)

    Via @FindoutnowUK, 4-8 May.
    Changes w/ GE2024.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    Sean_F said:

    And yet, she still believes that she is a misunderstood political giant.

    Pop quiz: who was the last Tory leader (or ex-leader) to lose their seat at a general election?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,223
    "Reform are even madder than us. Vote Conservative."
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,378
    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1921885064612159914

    Westminster Voting Intention [London]:

    LAB: 30% (-13)
    RFM: 19% (+10)
    CON: 17% (-4)
    LDM: 16% (+5)
    GRN: 15% (+5)

    Via @FindoutnowUK, 4-8 May.
    Changes w/ GE2024.

    London still firmly resisting the Reform tide even if Labour down, the Tory vote also holding up better in London than elsewhere with FON and Green vote particularly up in the capital
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,838
    david_herdson said:

    Seventh. Like Truss in the list of best PMs since 2010.

    I think you should have gone with 'lower quartile' - premierships such as Truss are fleeting almost quantum events. I believe that current Tory political thinking is that we may have had several million momentary PMs - and therefore Truss may well only be in the bottom handful.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,495
    edited May 12
    Sean_F said:

    And yet, she still believes that she is a misunderstood political giant.

    She's not alone. @Luckyguy1983 believes she is too.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,728
    HYUFD said:

    If the Tories are really lucky though Liz Truss might defect to Reform

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2025/04/would-reform-be-mad-to-accept-liz-truss

    https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/one-third-britons-say-they-would-view-reform-uk-more-negatively-if-liz-truss-were-join-party

    Would Reform accept her ?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,465
    david_herdson said:

    Sean_F said:

    And yet, she still believes that she is a misunderstood political giant.

    Pop quiz: who was the last Tory leader (or ex-leader) to lose their seat at a general election?
    Kim Campbell?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,756
    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1921885064612159914

    Westminster Voting Intention [London]:

    LAB: 30% (-13)
    RFM: 19% (+10)
    CON: 17% (-4)
    LDM: 16% (+5)
    GRN: 15% (+5)

    Via @FindoutnowUK, 4-8 May.
    Changes w/ GE2024.

    London still firmly resisting the Reform tide even if Labour down, the Tory vote also holding up better in London than elsewhere with FON and Green vote particularly up in the capital
    Full marks for positive thinking! Whether you look at this as a doubling of the share or an increase of 10 points, this doesn't much look to me like 'resisting the Reform tide'.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1921885064612159914

    Westminster Voting Intention [London]:

    LAB: 30% (-13)
    RFM: 19% (+10)
    CON: 17% (-4)
    LDM: 16% (+5)
    GRN: 15% (+5)

    Via @FindoutnowUK, 4-8 May.
    Changes w/ GE2024.

    London still firmly resisting the Reform tide even if Labour down, the Tory vote also holding up better in London than elsewhere with FON and Green vote particularly up in the capital
    "Firmly resisting the Reform tide" = "Overtaking the Tories"
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,430
    Phil said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    During a recent trip to the US, where I spoke with many members of what I suppose are the global financial elite, I was heartened and proud to see that Britain had furnished the world with a new gold standard. The phrase "Truss event" has become a global shorthand for any kind of enormously stupid policy error quickly reversed after a bond market rout. So beautiful to see us once again a commanding figure on the world stage.

    The “cabbage vs insane political figure/policy” is also now a universally understood part of the discourse of politics. UK tabloid humour has gone international it seems!
    Lettuce, not cabbage! Lettuce Liz looks to be joining Reform, fingers crossed.
  • ConcanvasserConcanvasser Posts: 206
    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1921885064612159914

    Westminster Voting Intention [London]:

    LAB: 30% (-13)
    RFM: 19% (+10)
    CON: 17% (-4)
    LDM: 16% (+5)
    GRN: 15% (+5)

    Via @FindoutnowUK, 4-8 May.
    Changes w/ GE2024.

    London still firmly resisting the Reform tide even if Labour down, the Tory vote also holding up better in London than elsewhere with FON and Green vote particularly up in the capital
    I would imagine Reform will happily take a 10% swing to them in one of the least Reform friendly parts of the country.


  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,838
    bondegezou said:

    Sean_F said:

    And yet, she still believes that she is a misunderstood political giant.

    She's not alone. @Luckyguy1983 believes she is too.
    So can we conclude that LuckyGuy slept with Truss in 1983 and is now wrestling with the self-appointed tag of 'lucky'?

    (Apologies @Luckyguy1983 )
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,337
    nico67 said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the Tories are really lucky though Liz Truss might defect to Reform

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2025/04/would-reform-be-mad-to-accept-liz-truss

    https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/one-third-britons-say-they-would-view-reform-uk-more-negatively-if-liz-truss-were-join-party

    Would Reform accept her ?
    If they do, it would be pretty conclusive proof that RefUK is a Bialystock and Bloom production.

    Deets of that Ipsos poll are:

    34% say that former PM Liz Truss defecting to Reform would make them view the party more negatively. 13% say they would view the party more positively. 38% who wouldn't care- I wonder how many of those are because they can't view Reform more negatively than the currently do?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    viewcode said:

    david_herdson said:

    Sean_F said:

    And yet, she still believes that she is a misunderstood political giant.

    Pop quiz: who was the last Tory leader (or ex-leader) to lose their seat at a general election?
    Kim Campbell?
    Very good. Though on that basis I'd look more to the Antipodes.

    I was meaning in the UK, to clarify.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,908
    Mayfair’s quite nice isn’t it? Wouldn’t mind living here. Big 3 bed flat, or maybe a townhouse south of Hanover Square

    Don’t know why people knock london

    Lots of good clothes shops. Pretty cafes. It’s v pleasant
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    Omnium said:

    david_herdson said:

    Seventh. Like Truss in the list of best PMs since 2010.

    I think you should have gone with 'lower quartile' - premierships such as Truss are fleeting almost quantum events. I believe that current Tory political thinking is that we may have had several million momentary PMs - and therefore Truss may well only be in the bottom handful.
    Bear in mind that we have had only six prime ministers officially since 2010.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 12,226
    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1921885064612159914

    Westminster Voting Intention [London]:

    LAB: 30% (-13)
    RFM: 19% (+10)
    CON: 17% (-4)
    LDM: 16% (+5)
    GRN: 15% (+5)

    Via @FindoutnowUK, 4-8 May.
    Changes w/ GE2024.

    London still firmly resisting the Reform tide even if Labour down, the Tory vote also holding up better in London than elsewhere with FON and Green vote particularly up in the capital
    erm reform moving into second place by adding ten percent is resisting the reform tide?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,223
    However bad Truss was, just picture Bozo giving the address at the Queen's funeral.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,152
    david_herdson said:

    Sean_F said:

    And yet, she still believes that she is a misunderstood political giant.

    Pop quiz: who was the last Tory leader (or ex-leader) to lose their seat at a general election?
    Pierre Poilievre, I believe it was tipped at 14/1?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,430
    Leon said:

    Mayfair’s quite nice isn’t it? Wouldn’t mind living here. Big 3 bed flat, or maybe a townhouse south of Hanover Square

    Don’t know why people knock london

    Lots of good clothes shops. Pretty cafes. It’s v pleasant

    Get on a boat and get to Dover illegally, then sue the government for not putting you in your choice of area. They'll give you a hotel room at a 4* in Mayfair eventually.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,465
    david_herdson said:

    viewcode said:

    david_herdson said:

    Sean_F said:

    And yet, she still believes that she is a misunderstood political giant.

    Pop quiz: who was the last Tory leader (or ex-leader) to lose their seat at a general election?
    Kim Campbell?
    Very good. Though on that basis I'd look more to the Antipodes.

    I was meaning in the UK, to clarify.
    Arthur Balfour, Manchester East, 1906? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1906_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,312
    david_herdson said:

    Sean_F said:

    And yet, she still believes that she is a misunderstood political giant.

    Pop quiz: who was the last Tory leader (or ex-leader) to lose their seat at a general election?
    Balfour?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,304
    nico67 said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the Tories are really lucky though Liz Truss might defect to Reform

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2025/04/would-reform-be-mad-to-accept-liz-truss

    https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/one-third-britons-say-they-would-view-reform-uk-more-negatively-if-liz-truss-were-join-party

    Would Reform accept her ?
    What would be funny is if Farage said she was too loopy for them.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,152
    I will need some PBers to explain where they were early this morning.

    Police investigating fire at Keir Starmer’s north London home

    A fire damaged the door of the prime minister’s £2 million home early this morning. No one was injured

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/crime/article/keir-starmer-fire-north-london-home-nsc7vk7sj
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,378
    edited May 12
    Pagan2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1921885064612159914

    Westminster Voting Intention [London]:

    LAB: 30% (-13)
    RFM: 19% (+10)
    CON: 17% (-4)
    LDM: 16% (+5)
    GRN: 15% (+5)

    Via @FindoutnowUK, 4-8 May.
    Changes w/ GE2024.

    London still firmly resisting the Reform tide even if Labour down, the Tory vote also holding up better in London than elsewhere with FON and Green vote particularly up in the capital
    erm reform moving into second place by adding ten percent is resisting the reform tide?
    Given FON have Reform on 33% UK wide in their latest poll and 13% ahead of Labour, relatively yes
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,224
    Leon said:

    Mayfair’s quite nice isn’t it? Wouldn’t mind living here. Big 3 bed flat, or maybe a townhouse south of Hanover Square

    Don’t know why people knock london

    Lots of good clothes shops. Pretty cafes. It’s v pleasant

    I diagnose the patient as follows - sunshine plus 1.5 G&Ts

    At 3 G&Ts the ranting will begin.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Sean_F said:

    nico67 said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the Tories are really lucky though Liz Truss might defect to Reform

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2025/04/would-reform-be-mad-to-accept-liz-truss

    https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/one-third-britons-say-they-would-view-reform-uk-more-negatively-if-liz-truss-were-join-party

    Would Reform accept her ?
    What would be funny is if Farage said she was too loopy for them.
    "I've always made it a golden rule not to let in people with a background in extremist parties so I'm afraid Liz's past association with the Lib Dems means we can't accept her."
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,430
    I think what's interesting is that parties representing over 70% of VI have now accepted that immigration is too high and needs to be brought down substantially and I think whichever party is best placed to deliver that will win in 2029. It won't be the Tories because the brand is irreparably damaged in immigration and frankly, no one will believe them even if they do mean what they say. That leaves Labour and Reform. Labour are actually in power which means they can deliver lower immigration using the apparatus of the state.

    I think what they're going to find is the same institutional resistance the Tories faced, the same civil servants like our own @bondegezou who is clearly against this and I'm sure were he able to would frustrate all attempts by ministers to bring immigration down. These self satisfied lanyard wearers in the public sector will over reach, force the government to fail as they did with the Tories time and again then we'll end up with a Reform majority.

    Labour will first need to deal with internal dissenters within the civil service and start purging these people or they, like the Tories, will be doomed to failure as they frustrate, delay and block ministers from implementing policies to bring immigration down, deport illegal immigrants and asylum seekers to stop the boats.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,568
    Malmesbury said:

    Leon said:

    Mayfair’s quite nice isn’t it? Wouldn’t mind living here. Big 3 bed flat, or maybe a townhouse south of Hanover Square

    Don’t know why people knock london

    Lots of good clothes shops. Pretty cafes. It’s v pleasant

    I diagnose the patient as follows - sunshine plus 1.5 G&Ts

    At 3 G&Ts the ranting will begin.
    Sunset is only four and a half hours away...
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,201
    MaxPB said:

    TimS said:

    williamglenn said:

    MaxPB said:

    williamglenn said:

    MaxPB said:

    williamglenn said:

    MaxPB said:

    TimS said:

    Gallowgate said:

    TimS said:

    Gallowgate said:

    I don’t understand why people consider it a bad thing that Labour are tackling Reform on immigration. At the end of the day you can be as woke as you like but immigration is still a concern. You can try to convince the population that we have a “moral duty” to accept all these people but you’re not going to win. It’s a much better left wing position to make sure that those we do accept and treated well and chosen wisely and appropriately.

    It’s also a much better left wing position to improve the economy so we can better look after and support those already here.

    Frankly I trust Labour much more than Reform to do this without ripping up our rights and the economy in the process.

    It could be done at policy level without the totally unnecessary dogwhistle language and nastiness, which is classic home office and just encourages others to ramp up the rhetoric further.
    What language are you referring to?
    “Nation of strangers”
    “City the size of Birmingham”
    “That’s not control, it’s chaos”
    “An immigration system that seems almost designed to permit abuse”

    All in this morning’s speech, and all calculated to paint a picture of an invasion and a system out of control. They heighten people’s fears rather than reassuring them.

    And Cooper invited journalists in to film migrants being forcibly deported back in February. Again, all part of the theatre of immigration policy. Not quite up there with Trump and his El Salvador prisons I grant you, but unnecessary and in my view self defeating.
    It tells me Labour are serious about winning the next election. Getting immigration down and halting illegal immigration/asylum seeking is the only path for them to win and I think they've realised it, for now it's all talk though if they delivery on this agenda I'd make Labour favourites to win in 2029 and the Tories to be turned to dust by Reform.
    If Labour out-Reform Reform, they may be in prime position to win the next election, but it will create a gap for a Cameroon-style party.
    No I don't think it does, the market for those voters is quite small, the lefty types put off by this will move to the greens not the Tories. Fundamentally the British public has decisively moved against unlimited immigration, I don't think there's many votes for a party that pledges it in 2029.
    I don't mean lefty types. There are lots of people who want immigration to be dealt with, but are still put off by the rhetoric.
    I don't think there are. I've been in the Tory party on and off for 15 years or so and even the one nation types are fed up with immigration being so high. People who were reliable voters for Dave, voted remain etc... are now much closer to Nige than they are to Boris on immigration. The constant media reports on court rulings has really changed people's minds on it IMO. The Tory party, in theory, is about working hard and getting on in life, people see those court case results and it really makes them seem like our hospitality is being taken advantage of, it's been, IMO, the most radicalising of the immigration stories for the party. One of the reasons Kemi has jumped on the anti-ECHR bandwagon is because I think the party has realised this, but probably 3 years too late.
    I'm talking about a hypothetical scenario in three years' time where Labour have successfully brought immigration down more than they're promising now. The issue won't have gone away, but it will have lost a bit of salience and some people will be put off by politicians 'banging on' about immigration, even if they personally would be happy with not letting anyone in.
    There is a point there. Salience rises and falls partly based on media coverage but also partly based on the rate of change in net migration. It seems quite a volatile metric too.

    The reason I don’t see salience falling this time is the basic visual impact of small boats, regardless of levels of legal immigration. They can effectively remove the “migrants in hotels” issue by clearing the backlog, but not the “migrants arriving on the beach”.
    They can stop the boats by immediately deporting any arrivals to designated safe third countries. Labour are very slowly inching towards a new version of the Rwanda scheme, eventually they will announce something very similar to the Tory version and many of those people who called the scheme unworkable or inhumane will magically no longer be opposed. Give people no incentive to come illegally and they will stop coming illegally. The pull factor is the hotels, it's illegal work, it's our benefits system, it's our liberal society. To borrow a phrase, tolerance is extinction and Labour seems to have grasped that our culture is going extinct due to these arrivals.
    I would send them somewhere seedy, run down and third rate. Clacton, Great Yarmouth and Skegness spring to mind.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,838
    williamglenn said:

    Sean_F said:

    nico67 said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the Tories are really lucky though Liz Truss might defect to Reform

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2025/04/would-reform-be-mad-to-accept-liz-truss

    https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/one-third-britons-say-they-would-view-reform-uk-more-negatively-if-liz-truss-were-join-party

    Would Reform accept her ?
    What would be funny is if Farage said she was too loopy for them.
    "I've always made it a golden rule not to let in people with a background in extremist parties so I'm afraid Liz's past association with the Lib Dems means we can't accept her."
    I'm quite keen that Truss and Braverman should fail to find any political sunlight in the future. Much like Corbyn - allowed to wither.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,201
    Foss said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Leon said:

    Mayfair’s quite nice isn’t it? Wouldn’t mind living here. Big 3 bed flat, or maybe a townhouse south of Hanover Square

    Don’t know why people knock london

    Lots of good clothes shops. Pretty cafes. It’s v pleasant

    I diagnose the patient as follows - sunshine plus 1.5 G&Ts

    At 3 G&Ts the ranting will begin.
    Sunset is only four and a half hours away...
    It’s already sunset somewhere in the world.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,759
    williamglenn said:

    Sean_F said:

    nico67 said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the Tories are really lucky though Liz Truss might defect to Reform

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2025/04/would-reform-be-mad-to-accept-liz-truss

    https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/one-third-britons-say-they-would-view-reform-uk-more-negatively-if-liz-truss-were-join-party

    Would Reform accept her ?
    What would be funny is if Farage said she was too loopy for them.
    "I've always made it a golden rule not to let in people with a background in extremist parties so I'm afraid Liz's past association with the Lib Dems means we can't accept her."
    very amusing
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,265
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    During a recent trip to the US, where I spoke with many members of what I suppose are the global financial elite, I was heartened and proud to see that Britain had furnished the world with a new gold standard. The phrase "Truss event" has become a global shorthand for any kind of enormously stupid policy error quickly reversed after a bond market rout. So beautiful to see us once again a commanding figure on the world stage.

    Mandy Rice Davies would seem to apply.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,378
    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1921885064612159914

    Westminster Voting Intention [London]:

    LAB: 30% (-13)
    RFM: 19% (+10)
    CON: 17% (-4)
    LDM: 16% (+5)
    GRN: 15% (+5)

    Via @FindoutnowUK, 4-8 May.
    Changes w/ GE2024.

    Reform are on 21% even in the latest Scotland only poll, so London remains their worst region in the UK

    https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3loou6c7u622t
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,152
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    During a recent trip to the US, where I spoke with many members of what I suppose are the global financial elite, I was heartened and proud to see that Britain had furnished the world with a new gold standard. The phrase "Truss event" has become a global shorthand for any kind of enormously stupid policy error quickly reversed after a bond market rout. So beautiful to see us once again a commanding figure on the world stage.

    Mandy Rice Davies would seem to apply.
    Nah, at my work and in the wider industry ‘Trussed’ is the term, at my work ‘Trussed’ has replaced ‘stepmommed’ which has upset me greatly.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,265
    MaxPB said:

    I think what's interesting is that parties representing over 70% of VI have now accepted that immigration is too high and needs to be brought down substantially and I think whichever party is best placed to deliver that will win in 2029. It won't be the Tories because the brand is irreparably damaged in immigration and frankly, no one will believe them even if they do mean what they say. That leaves Labour and Reform. Labour are actually in power which means they can deliver lower immigration using the apparatus of the state.

    I think what they're going to find is the same institutional resistance the Tories faced, the same civil servants like our own @bondegezou who is clearly against this and I'm sure were he able to would frustrate all attempts by ministers to bring immigration down. These self satisfied lanyard wearers in the public sector will over reach, force the government to fail as they did with the Tories time and again then we'll end up with a Reform majority.

    Labour will first need to deal with internal dissenters within the civil service and start purging these people or they, like the Tories, will be doomed to failure as they frustrate, delay and block ministers from implementing policies to bring immigration down, deport illegal immigrants and asylum seekers to stop the boats.

    I think they will fail but make some sort of start. That will help when Reform come in, because they will be continuing something not facing an implacable wall of resistance.

    I don't share the feeling expressed here today that Labour's position is recoverable. But it is nice that they're trying - that's democracy.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,265
    Omnium said:

    williamglenn said:

    Sean_F said:

    nico67 said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the Tories are really lucky though Liz Truss might defect to Reform

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2025/04/would-reform-be-mad-to-accept-liz-truss

    https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/one-third-britons-say-they-would-view-reform-uk-more-negatively-if-liz-truss-were-join-party

    Would Reform accept her ?
    What would be funny is if Farage said she was too loopy for them.
    "I've always made it a golden rule not to let in people with a background in extremist parties so I'm afraid Liz's past association with the Lib Dems means we can't accept her."
    I'm quite keen that Truss and Braverman should fail to find any political sunlight in the future. Much like Corbyn - allowed to wither.
    Sadly nobody cares what you're keen on.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    david_herdson said:

    Sean_F said:

    And yet, she still believes that she is a misunderstood political giant.

    Pop quiz: who was the last Tory leader (or ex-leader) to lose their seat at a general election?
    Pierre Poilievre, I believe it was tipped at 14/1?
    If we're going abroad then it would be Peter Dutton, I think?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,838
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Omnium said:

    williamglenn said:

    Sean_F said:

    nico67 said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the Tories are really lucky though Liz Truss might defect to Reform

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2025/04/would-reform-be-mad-to-accept-liz-truss

    https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/one-third-britons-say-they-would-view-reform-uk-more-negatively-if-liz-truss-were-join-party

    Would Reform accept her ?
    What would be funny is if Farage said she was too loopy for them.
    "I've always made it a golden rule not to let in people with a background in extremist parties so I'm afraid Liz's past association with the Lib Dems means we can't accept her."
    I'm quite keen that Truss and Braverman should fail to find any political sunlight in the future. Much like Corbyn - allowed to wither.
    Sadly nobody cares what you're keen on.
    Don't call me sadly.

    I wonder though why you're being rude?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,152
    Omnium said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Omnium said:

    williamglenn said:

    Sean_F said:

    nico67 said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the Tories are really lucky though Liz Truss might defect to Reform

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2025/04/would-reform-be-mad-to-accept-liz-truss

    https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/one-third-britons-say-they-would-view-reform-uk-more-negatively-if-liz-truss-were-join-party

    Would Reform accept her ?
    What would be funny is if Farage said she was too loopy for them.
    "I've always made it a golden rule not to let in people with a background in extremist parties so I'm afraid Liz's past association with the Lib Dems means we can't accept her."
    I'm quite keen that Truss and Braverman should fail to find any political sunlight in the future. Much like Corbyn - allowed to wither.
    Sadly nobody cares what you're keen on.
    Don't call me sadly.

    I wonder though why you're being rude?
    LuckyGuy is very loyal to Liz Truss, like I am to Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton (pbuh).
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,265
    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1921885064612159914

    Westminster Voting Intention [London]:

    LAB: 30% (-13)
    RFM: 19% (+10)
    CON: 17% (-4)
    LDM: 16% (+5)
    GRN: 15% (+5)

    Via @FindoutnowUK, 4-8 May.
    Changes w/ GE2024.

    Reform are on 21% even in the latest Scotland only poll, so London remains their worst region in the UK

    https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3loou6c7u622t
    The Tories desperately need to select a brilliant candidate for the London Mayorality, and for Reform to select a useless minor celebrity who will decide half way through the campaign that they can't be bothered.

    I would still say the best idea is to give Boris a thorough sheep shearing (and dip) and take a punt on the Bojo magic reminding people of the good times.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,152
    david_herdson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    david_herdson said:

    Sean_F said:

    And yet, she still believes that she is a misunderstood political giant.

    Pop quiz: who was the last Tory leader (or ex-leader) to lose their seat at a general election?
    Pierre Poilievre, I believe it was tipped at 14/1?
    If we're going abroad then it would be Peter Dutton, I think?
    My pedantry excludes Dutton as he was Leader of the Liberal Party whereas PP was a Conservative/Tory.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 10,515
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    During a recent trip to the US, where I spoke with many members of what I suppose are the global financial elite, I was heartened and proud to see that Britain had furnished the world with a new gold standard. The phrase "Truss event" has become a global shorthand for any kind of enormously stupid policy error quickly reversed after a bond market rout. So beautiful to see us once again a commanding figure on the world stage.

    Trump says “hold my beer”
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,795
    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1921885064612159914

    Westminster Voting Intention [London]:

    LAB: 30% (-13)
    RFM: 19% (+10)
    CON: 17% (-4)
    LDM: 16% (+5)
    GRN: 15% (+5)

    Via @FindoutnowUK, 4-8 May.
    Changes w/ GE2024.

    Reform are on 21% even in the latest Scotland only poll, so London remains their worst region in the UK

    https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3loou6c7u622t
    If Reform get around 25% in London you'd think they win the election overall.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,838
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Omnium said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Omnium said:

    williamglenn said:

    Sean_F said:

    nico67 said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the Tories are really lucky though Liz Truss might defect to Reform

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2025/04/would-reform-be-mad-to-accept-liz-truss

    https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/one-third-britons-say-they-would-view-reform-uk-more-negatively-if-liz-truss-were-join-party

    Would Reform accept her ?
    What would be funny is if Farage said she was too loopy for them.
    "I've always made it a golden rule not to let in people with a background in extremist parties so I'm afraid Liz's past association with the Lib Dems means we can't accept her."
    I'm quite keen that Truss and Braverman should fail to find any political sunlight in the future. Much like Corbyn - allowed to wither.
    Sadly nobody cares what you're keen on.
    Don't call me sadly.

    I wonder though why you're being rude?
    LuckyGuy is very loyal to Liz Truss, like I am to Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton (pbuh).
    Shush - I won't be able to give you my report as to who deserves death by barchart. I know Mike invested heavily in the machinery.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    viewcode said:

    david_herdson said:

    viewcode said:

    david_herdson said:

    Sean_F said:

    And yet, she still believes that she is a misunderstood political giant.

    Pop quiz: who was the last Tory leader (or ex-leader) to lose their seat at a general election?
    Kim Campbell?
    Very good. Though on that basis I'd look more to the Antipodes.

    I was meaning in the UK, to clarify.
    Arthur Balfour, Manchester East, 1906? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1906_United_Kingdom_general_election
    Correct. JohnO also correct but a tad late.

    Balfour was still Leader of the Conservatives (or Unionists) at the time and remained so while out of parliament and through to the next two elections, which he also lost - though not before prompting a constitutional crisis by abusing the Tory majority in the Lords.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,430
    edited May 12
    MaxPB said:

    I think what's interesting is that parties representing over 70% of VI have now accepted that immigration is too high and needs to be brought down substantially and I think whichever party is best placed to deliver that will win in 2029. It won't be the Tories because the brand is irreparably damaged in immigration and frankly, no one will believe them even if they do mean what they say. That leaves Labour and Reform. Labour are actually in power which means they can deliver lower immigration using the apparatus of the state.

    I think what they're going to find is the same institutional resistance the Tories faced, the same civil servants like our own bondegezou who is clearly against this and I'm sure were he able to would frustrate all attempts by ministers to bring immigration down. These self satisfied lanyard wearers in the public sector will over reach, force the government to fail as they did with the Tories time and again then we'll end up with a Reform majority.

    Labour will first need to deal with internal dissenters within the civil service and start purging these people or they, like the Tories, will be doomed to failure as they frustrate, delay and block ministers from implementing policies to bring immigration down, deport illegal immigrants and asylum seekers to stop the boats.

    Lanyard wearers is excellent, I must say. I am one, though I'm also a former name badge wearer and "keeper of the PLB".

    The civil service meme was disproven by Truss and Kwarteng. As long as you have the courage of your convictions, you can override them (and ignore the OBR) and enjoy the sunlit uplands.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,605
    Liz is still around, you know. Her twitter bio says she is a Sunday Times bestselling author which takes precedence over ex pm of UK.

    https://x.com/trussliz/status/1921849325853745189?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,971
    Battlebus said:

    williamglenn said:

    Trump tells an anecdote about his friend getting Ozempic cheap in London to illustrate the unfairness of drug pricing:

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1921930855867457667

    Trump: "A friend of mine who is a businessman. Very very very top guy. Most of you would've heard of him. Highly neurotic. Brilliant businessman. Seriously overweight. And he takes the fat shot drug."

    He's right. Family member was involved in advising companies about market pricing as each country has a different approach. Drug companies banked the US prices and then worked the margins in other markets. There is though a long term trend away from the US to Asia for development. So it may accelerate the trend to their and generics (India).
    He's quite wrong about the likely effect of his executive order, though.

    See my posts from earlier today.
    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5204502#Comment_5204502

    It's a policy (assuming the courts don't just tell him to do one) which - along with the massive funding cuts to US health research - which is likely to do serious only term damage to the US pharmaceutical industry industry.

    While doing little to decrease drug costs.

    It also ignores the fact that generics (90% of the US market) are already cheaper in the US than in Europe, and the fact that 50% of the price of prescriptions is goes into the pockets of Pharmacy Benefit Managers (largely owned by the US health insurance companies), not the pharmaceutical companies.

    Apart from all that, well done, Donald.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,634
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Liz is still around, you know. Her twitter bio says she is a Sunday Times bestselling author which takes precedence over ex pm of UK.

    https://x.com/trussliz/status/1921849325853745189?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    I'm trying to suppress her, and her premiership, from my mind, thank you very much. :smiley:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,378
    edited May 12
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1921885064612159914

    Westminster Voting Intention [London]:

    LAB: 30% (-13)
    RFM: 19% (+10)
    CON: 17% (-4)
    LDM: 16% (+5)
    GRN: 15% (+5)

    Via @FindoutnowUK, 4-8 May.
    Changes w/ GE2024.

    Reform are on 21% even in the latest Scotland only poll, so London remains their worst region in the UK

    https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3loou6c7u622t
    The Tories desperately need to select a brilliant candidate for the London Mayorality, and for Reform to select a useless minor celebrity who will decide half way through the campaign that they can't be bothered.

    I would still say the best idea is to give Boris a thorough sheep shearing (and dip) and take a punt on the Bojo magic reminding people of the good times.
    Boris is cooked in London after Brexit, better would be for Cleverly to be Tory candidate for London Mayor and bring back Boris as Leader of the Conservative Party before the next GE as the Tories best hope to see off Farage and Starmer.

    As MiC found in their poll last week only a Johnson led Conservatives would now lead Reform and Labour, a Badenoch, Jenrick, even Cameron led Tories would still trail and a Sunak led Tories at best tie with Reform
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,971
    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think what's interesting is that parties representing over 70% of VI have now accepted that immigration is too high and needs to be brought down substantially and I think whichever party is best placed to deliver that will win in 2029. It won't be the Tories because the brand is irreparably damaged in immigration and frankly, no one will believe them even if they do mean what they say. That leaves Labour and Reform. Labour are actually in power which means they can deliver lower immigration using the apparatus of the state.

    I think what they're going to find is the same institutional resistance the Tories faced, the same civil servants like our own bondegezou who is clearly against this and I'm sure were he able to would frustrate all attempts by ministers to bring immigration down. These self satisfied lanyard wearers in the public sector will over reach, force the government to fail as they did with the Tories time and again then we'll end up with a Reform majority.

    Labour will first need to deal with internal dissenters within the civil service and start purging these people or they, like the Tories, will be doomed to failure as they frustrate, delay and block ministers from implementing policies to bring immigration down, deport illegal immigrants and asylum seekers to stop the boats.

    Lanyard wearers is excellent, I must say. I am one, though I'm also a former name badge wearer and "keeper of the PLB".

    The civil service meme was disproven by Truss and Kwarteng. As long as you have the courage of your convictions, you can override them (and ignore the OBR) and enjoy the sunlit uplands.
    While a school governor, I was also (along with every teacher and TA, of course) a lanyard wearer.
    For whatever value I provided, my cost to the taxpayer was zero.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,838
    HYUFD said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1921885064612159914

    Westminster Voting Intention [London]:

    LAB: 30% (-13)
    RFM: 19% (+10)
    CON: 17% (-4)
    LDM: 16% (+5)
    GRN: 15% (+5)

    Via @FindoutnowUK, 4-8 May.
    Changes w/ GE2024.

    Reform are on 21% even in the latest Scotland only poll, so London remains their worst region in the UK

    https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3loou6c7u622t
    The Tories desperately need to select a brilliant candidate for the London Mayorality, and for Reform to select a useless minor celebrity who will decide half way through the campaign that they can't be bothered.

    I would still say the best idea is to give Boris a thorough sheep shearing (and dip) and take a punt on the Bojo magic reminding people of the good times.
    Boris is cooked in London after Brexit, better would be for Cleverly to be Tory candidate for London Mayor and bring back Boris as Leader of the Conservative Party before the next GE as the Tories best hope to see off Farage and Starmer
    I think rather the opposite - Boris could be elected once again as London Mayor, but no chance nationally.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 10,515
    Leon said:

    Mayfair’s quite nice isn’t it? Wouldn’t mind living here. Big 3 bed flat, or maybe a townhouse south of Hanover Square

    Don’t know why people knock london

    Lots of good clothes shops. Pretty cafes. It’s v pleasant

    £3M for a flat or £8-11m for the townhouse buys you a lot of “quite nice”
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,378
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    david_herdson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    david_herdson said:

    Sean_F said:

    And yet, she still believes that she is a misunderstood political giant.

    Pop quiz: who was the last Tory leader (or ex-leader) to lose their seat at a general election?
    Pierre Poilievre, I believe it was tipped at 14/1?
    If we're going abroad then it would be Peter Dutton, I think?
    My pedantry excludes Dutton as he was Leader of the Liberal Party whereas PP was a Conservative/Tory.
    On that topic the Liberal Party will elect their new leader tomorrow after Dutton's defeat, Liberal MPs will choose between moderate Sussan Ley and hard right Angus Taylor in tomorrow's spill

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Liberal_Party_of_Australia_leadership_election
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,495
    For clarity, I am not a civil servant.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,495
    williamglenn said:

    Sean_F said:

    nico67 said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the Tories are really lucky though Liz Truss might defect to Reform

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2025/04/would-reform-be-mad-to-accept-liz-truss

    https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/one-third-britons-say-they-would-view-reform-uk-more-negatively-if-liz-truss-were-join-party

    Would Reform accept her ?
    What would be funny is if Farage said she was too loopy for them.
    "I've always made it a golden rule not to let in people with a background in extremist parties so I'm afraid Liz's past association with the Lib Dems means we can't accept her."
    Another former LibDem, Zack Polanski, is in the leadership election for the Green Party (of England and Wales), although he's not considered the favourite. I wonder if he would be as successful.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,565
    edited May 12
    bondegezou said:

    For clarity, I am not a civil servant.

    I was wondering that. Figured you more for one of the rude ones :wink:

    ETA - but do you wear a lanyard? I don't, but I'm probably in the minority at work; I'm not sure what the official policy is or whether there is one, but no one has ever told me off for it.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,430
    Nigelb said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think what's interesting is that parties representing over 70% of VI have now accepted that immigration is too high and needs to be brought down substantially and I think whichever party is best placed to deliver that will win in 2029. It won't be the Tories because the brand is irreparably damaged in immigration and frankly, no one will believe them even if they do mean what they say. That leaves Labour and Reform. Labour are actually in power which means they can deliver lower immigration using the apparatus of the state.

    I think what they're going to find is the same institutional resistance the Tories faced, the same civil servants like our own bondegezou who is clearly against this and I'm sure were he able to would frustrate all attempts by ministers to bring immigration down. These self satisfied lanyard wearers in the public sector will over reach, force the government to fail as they did with the Tories time and again then we'll end up with a Reform majority.

    Labour will first need to deal with internal dissenters within the civil service and start purging these people or they, like the Tories, will be doomed to failure as they frustrate, delay and block ministers from implementing policies to bring immigration down, deport illegal immigrants and asylum seekers to stop the boats.

    Lanyard wearers is excellent, I must say. I am one, though I'm also a former name badge wearer and "keeper of the PLB".

    The civil service meme was disproven by Truss and Kwarteng. As long as you have the courage of your convictions, you can override them (and ignore the OBR) and enjoy the sunlit uplands.
    While a school governor, I was also (along with every teacher and TA, of course) a lanyard wearer.
    For whatever value I provided, my cost to the taxpayer was zero.
    It's a great way to describe office workers in a slightly derogatory manner, and cuts across private and public. Though it's a bit inaccurate because they are designed to come apart under pressure, so they're not banned in hospitals and construction sites etc.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,378
    edited May 12
    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1921885064612159914

    Westminster Voting Intention [London]:

    LAB: 30% (-13)
    RFM: 19% (+10)
    CON: 17% (-4)
    LDM: 16% (+5)
    GRN: 15% (+5)

    Via @FindoutnowUK, 4-8 May.
    Changes w/ GE2024.

    Reform are on 21% even in the latest Scotland only poll, so London remains their worst region in the UK

    https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3loou6c7u622t
    The Tories desperately need to select a brilliant candidate for the London Mayorality, and for Reform to select a useless minor celebrity who will decide half way through the campaign that they can't be bothered.

    I would still say the best idea is to give Boris a thorough sheep shearing (and dip) and take a punt on the Bojo magic reminding people of the good times.
    Boris is cooked in London after Brexit, better would be for Cleverly to be Tory candidate for London Mayor and bring back Boris as Leader of the Conservative Party before the next GE as the Tories best hope to see off Farage and Starmer
    I think rather the opposite - Boris could be elected once again as London Mayor, but no chance nationally.
    Well you are wrong.

    Boris failed to win in London even in 2019, nationally however MiC found last week a Johnson led Conservative Party would be on 26%, up 5% from where they are with Kemi. Reform would be on 23%, down 6% from their current 29%, with Labour unchanged on 22% and the LDs down 1% to 15%

    https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/rpahhzfk/more-in-common-post-election-briefing-3.pdf (p48)
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,430
    Eabhal said:

    Nigelb said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think what's interesting is that parties representing over 70% of VI have now accepted that immigration is too high and needs to be brought down substantially and I think whichever party is best placed to deliver that will win in 2029. It won't be the Tories because the brand is irreparably damaged in immigration and frankly, no one will believe them even if they do mean what they say. That leaves Labour and Reform. Labour are actually in power which means they can deliver lower immigration using the apparatus of the state.

    I think what they're going to find is the same institutional resistance the Tories faced, the same civil servants like our own bondegezou who is clearly against this and I'm sure were he able to would frustrate all attempts by ministers to bring immigration down. These self satisfied lanyard wearers in the public sector will over reach, force the government to fail as they did with the Tories time and again then we'll end up with a Reform majority.

    Labour will first need to deal with internal dissenters within the civil service and start purging these people or they, like the Tories, will be doomed to failure as they frustrate, delay and block ministers from implementing policies to bring immigration down, deport illegal immigrants and asylum seekers to stop the boats.

    Lanyard wearers is excellent, I must say. I am one, though I'm also a former name badge wearer and "keeper of the PLB".

    The civil service meme was disproven by Truss and Kwarteng. As long as you have the courage of your convictions, you can override them (and ignore the OBR) and enjoy the sunlit uplands.
    While a school governor, I was also (along with every teacher and TA, of course) a lanyard wearer.
    For whatever value I provided, my cost to the taxpayer was zero.
    It's a great way to describe office workers in a slightly derogatory manner, and cuts across private and public. Though it's a bit inaccurate because they are designed to come apart under pressure, so they're not banned in hospitals and construction sites etc.
    And anyone working at height makes extensive use of lanyards.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,495
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1921885064612159914

    Westminster Voting Intention [London]:

    LAB: 30% (-13)
    RFM: 19% (+10)
    CON: 17% (-4)
    LDM: 16% (+5)
    GRN: 15% (+5)

    Via @FindoutnowUK, 4-8 May.
    Changes w/ GE2024.

    Reform are on 21% even in the latest Scotland only poll, so London remains their worst region in the UK

    https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3loou6c7u622t
    The Tories desperately need to select a brilliant candidate for the London Mayorality, and for Reform to select a useless minor celebrity who will decide half way through the campaign that they can't be bothered.

    I would still say the best idea is to give Boris a thorough sheep shearing (and dip) and take a punt on the Bojo magic reminding people of the good times.
    Ant Middleton, a useless minor celebrity, is planning to stand for Reform UK.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,430
    bondegezou said:

    For clarity, I am not a civil servant.

    I know but you embody their won't do attitude perfectly. Overly officious, attached to bureaucracy, think you know best even when you're completely wrong. If I could sum up the civil service into a single person, it would be you.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,838
    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1921885064612159914

    Westminster Voting Intention [London]:

    LAB: 30% (-13)
    RFM: 19% (+10)
    CON: 17% (-4)
    LDM: 16% (+5)
    GRN: 15% (+5)

    Via @FindoutnowUK, 4-8 May.
    Changes w/ GE2024.

    Reform are on 21% even in the latest Scotland only poll, so London remains their worst region in the UK

    https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3loou6c7u622t
    The Tories desperately need to select a brilliant candidate for the London Mayorality, and for Reform to select a useless minor celebrity who will decide half way through the campaign that they can't be bothered.

    I would still say the best idea is to give Boris a thorough sheep shearing (and dip) and take a punt on the Bojo magic reminding people of the good times.
    Boris is cooked in London after Brexit, better would be for Cleverly to be Tory candidate for London Mayor and bring back Boris as Leader of the Conservative Party before the next GE as the Tories best hope to see off Farage and Starmer
    I think rather the opposite - Boris could be elected once again as London Mayor, but no chance nationally.
    Well you are wrong.

    Boris failed to win in London even in 2019, nationally however MiC found last week a Johnson led Conservative Party would be on 26%, up 5% from where they are with Kemi. Reform would be on 23%, down 6% from their current 29% with Labour unchanged on 22% and the LDs down 1% to 15%

    https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/rpahhzfk/more-in-common-post-election-briefing-3.pdf (p48)
    Happy to be wrong. What would you prefer him doing though? PM or London Mayor? Ponder it for a while and consider that the electorate is other people much like you. I'm not sure you'll be so certain that I'm wrong.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 25,535
    bondegezou said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1921885064612159914

    Westminster Voting Intention [London]:

    LAB: 30% (-13)
    RFM: 19% (+10)
    CON: 17% (-4)
    LDM: 16% (+5)
    GRN: 15% (+5)

    Via @FindoutnowUK, 4-8 May.
    Changes w/ GE2024.

    Reform are on 21% even in the latest Scotland only poll, so London remains their worst region in the UK

    https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3loou6c7u622t
    The Tories desperately need to select a brilliant candidate for the London Mayorality, and for Reform to select a useless minor celebrity who will decide half way through the campaign that they can't be bothered.

    I would still say the best idea is to give Boris a thorough sheep shearing (and dip) and take a punt on the Bojo magic reminding people of the good times.
    Ant Middleton, a useless minor celebrity, is planning to stand for Reform UK.
    Who?

    Ant McPartlin would be noteworthy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,378
    edited May 12
    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1921885064612159914

    Westminster Voting Intention [London]:

    LAB: 30% (-13)
    RFM: 19% (+10)
    CON: 17% (-4)
    LDM: 16% (+5)
    GRN: 15% (+5)

    Via @FindoutnowUK, 4-8 May.
    Changes w/ GE2024.

    Reform are on 21% even in the latest Scotland only poll, so London remains their worst region in the UK

    https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3loou6c7u622t
    The Tories desperately need to select a brilliant candidate for the London Mayorality, and for Reform to select a useless minor celebrity who will decide half way through the campaign that they can't be bothered.

    I would still say the best idea is to give Boris a thorough sheep shearing (and dip) and take a punt on the Bojo magic reminding people of the good times.
    Boris is cooked in London after Brexit, better would be for Cleverly to be Tory candidate for London Mayor and bring back Boris as Leader of the Conservative Party before the next GE as the Tories best hope to see off Farage and Starmer
    I think rather the opposite - Boris could be elected once again as London Mayor, but no chance nationally.
    Well you are wrong.

    Boris failed to win in London even in 2019, nationally however MiC found last week a Johnson led Conservative Party would be on 26%, up 5% from where they are with Kemi. Reform would be on 23%, down 6% from their current 29% with Labour unchanged on 22% and the LDs down 1% to 15%

    https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/rpahhzfk/more-in-common-post-election-briefing-3.pdf (p48)
    Happy to be wrong. What would you prefer him doing though? PM or London Mayor? Ponder it for a while and consider that the electorate is other people much like you. I'm not sure you'll be so certain that I'm wrong.
    Tory leader, it is nationally where the Tories need to win back voters which the polls show only Boris can do, they don't need to win back London and any Tory candidate would still likely lose the capital and Mayoral race again
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,440
    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1921885064612159914

    Westminster Voting Intention [London]:

    LAB: 30% (-13)
    RFM: 19% (+10)
    CON: 17% (-4)
    LDM: 16% (+5)
    GRN: 15% (+5)

    Via @FindoutnowUK, 4-8 May.
    Changes w/ GE2024.

    Reform are on 21% even in the latest Scotland only poll, so London remains their worst region in the UK

    https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3loou6c7u622t
    The Tories desperately need to select a brilliant candidate for the London Mayorality, and for Reform to select a useless minor celebrity who will decide half way through the campaign that they can't be bothered.

    I would still say the best idea is to give Boris a thorough sheep shearing (and dip) and take a punt on the Bojo magic reminding people of the good times.
    Boris is cooked in London after Brexit, better would be for Cleverly to be Tory candidate for London Mayor and bring back Boris as Leader of the Conservative Party before the next GE as the Tories best hope to see off Farage and Starmer
    I think rather the opposite - Boris could be elected once again as London Mayor, but no chance nationally.
    Well you are wrong.

    Boris failed to win in London even in 2019, nationally however MiC found last week a Johnson led Conservative Party would be on 26%, up 5% from where they are with Kemi. Reform would be on 23%, down 6% from their current 29%, with Labour unchanged on 22% and the LDs down 1% to 15%

    https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/rpahhzfk/more-in-common-post-election-briefing-3.pdf (p48)
    You're definitely siezed of those MiC results, aren't you!
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,700
    MaxPB said:

    bondegezou said:

    For clarity, I am not a civil servant.

    I know but you embody their won't do attitude perfectly. Overly officious, attached to bureaucracy, think you know best even when you're completely wrong. If I could sum up the civil service into a single person, it would be you.
    A bit man not ball, don't you think, Max?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,472
    @WKCosmo

    A mathematician Pope going up against a machine god superintelligence is the most cyberpunk thing ever.

    https://x.com/WKCosmo/status/1921633591441703218
  • vikvik Posts: 551
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    david_herdson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    david_herdson said:

    Sean_F said:

    And yet, she still believes that she is a misunderstood political giant.

    Pop quiz: who was the last Tory leader (or ex-leader) to lose their seat at a general election?
    Pierre Poilievre, I believe it was tipped at 14/1?
    If we're going abroad then it would be Peter Dutton, I think?
    My pedantry excludes Dutton as he was Leader of the Liberal Party whereas PP was a Conservative/Tory.
    The Australian "Liberal" party is a liberal party in name only.

    The Australian Liberals are officially part of the International Democracy Union of right-wing parties, with other members of this alliance being the UK Tories and the Canadian Conservatives/Tories.

    If Poliviere is a Tory then Dutton is also a Tory.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Democracy_Union
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,430
    Eabhal said:

    Nigelb said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think what's interesting is that parties representing over 70% of VI have now accepted that immigration is too high and needs to be brought down substantially and I think whichever party is best placed to deliver that will win in 2029. It won't be the Tories because the brand is irreparably damaged in immigration and frankly, no one will believe them even if they do mean what they say. That leaves Labour and Reform. Labour are actually in power which means they can deliver lower immigration using the apparatus of the state.

    I think what they're going to find is the same institutional resistance the Tories faced, the same civil servants like our own bondegezou who is clearly against this and I'm sure were he able to would frustrate all attempts by ministers to bring immigration down. These self satisfied lanyard wearers in the public sector will over reach, force the government to fail as they did with the Tories time and again then we'll end up with a Reform majority.

    Labour will first need to deal with internal dissenters within the civil service and start purging these people or they, like the Tories, will be doomed to failure as they frustrate, delay and block ministers from implementing policies to bring immigration down, deport illegal immigrants and asylum seekers to stop the boats.

    Lanyard wearers is excellent, I must say. I am one, though I'm also a former name badge wearer and "keeper of the PLB".

    The civil service meme was disproven by Truss and Kwarteng. As long as you have the courage of your convictions, you can override them (and ignore the OBR) and enjoy the sunlit uplands.
    While a school governor, I was also (along with every teacher and TA, of course) a lanyard wearer.
    For whatever value I provided, my cost to the taxpayer was zero.
    It's a great way to describe office workers in a slightly derogatory manner, and cuts across private and public. Though it's a bit inaccurate because they are designed to come apart under pressure, so they're not banned in hospitals and construction sites etc.
    More that it's useful to describe people who think they're more important than they are. Their lanyard embodies their persona, they see it as their super power, when they put it on in the morning they think they've become a different person who is better than everyone else. It is the best way to describe the civil service.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,430
    maxh said:

    MaxPB said:

    bondegezou said:

    For clarity, I am not a civil servant.

    I know but you embody their won't do attitude perfectly. Overly officious, attached to bureaucracy, think you know best even when you're completely wrong. If I could sum up the civil service into a single person, it would be you.
    A bit man not ball, don't you think, Max?
    Not really, he fully admitted that when he was working in an advisory capacity for the government during COVID he worked against the government of the day and the agenda of ministers.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 25,535
    vik said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    david_herdson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    david_herdson said:

    Sean_F said:

    And yet, she still believes that she is a misunderstood political giant.

    Pop quiz: who was the last Tory leader (or ex-leader) to lose their seat at a general election?
    Pierre Poilievre, I believe it was tipped at 14/1?
    If we're going abroad then it would be Peter Dutton, I think?
    My pedantry excludes Dutton as he was Leader of the Liberal Party whereas PP was a Conservative/Tory.
    The Australian "Liberal" party is a liberal party in name only.

    The Australian Liberals are officially part of the International Democracy Union of right-wing parties, with other members of this alliance being the UK Tories and the Canadian Conservatives/Tories.

    If Poliviere is a Tory then Dutton is also a Tory.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Democracy_Union
    The Australian Liberal Party is a classically liberal party believing in liberal economics.

    Liberal is not a leftwing term, even if its been embraced by many who abhor liberal economics.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,838
    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1921885064612159914

    Westminster Voting Intention [London]:

    LAB: 30% (-13)
    RFM: 19% (+10)
    CON: 17% (-4)
    LDM: 16% (+5)
    GRN: 15% (+5)

    Via @FindoutnowUK, 4-8 May.
    Changes w/ GE2024.

    Reform are on 21% even in the latest Scotland only poll, so London remains their worst region in the UK

    https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3loou6c7u622t
    The Tories desperately need to select a brilliant candidate for the London Mayorality, and for Reform to select a useless minor celebrity who will decide half way through the campaign that they can't be bothered.

    I would still say the best idea is to give Boris a thorough sheep shearing (and dip) and take a punt on the Bojo magic reminding people of the good times.
    Boris is cooked in London after Brexit, better would be for Cleverly to be Tory candidate for London Mayor and bring back Boris as Leader of the Conservative Party before the next GE as the Tories best hope to see off Farage and Starmer
    I think rather the opposite - Boris could be elected once again as London Mayor, but no chance nationally.
    Well you are wrong.

    Boris failed to win in London even in 2019, nationally however MiC found last week a Johnson led Conservative Party would be on 26%, up 5% from where they are with Kemi. Reform would be on 23%, down 6% from their current 29% with Labour unchanged on 22% and the LDs down 1% to 15%

    https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/rpahhzfk/more-in-common-post-election-briefing-3.pdf (p48)
    Happy to be wrong. What would you prefer him doing though? PM or London Mayor? Ponder it for a while and consider that the electorate is other people much like you. I'm not sure you'll be so certain that I'm wrong.
    Tory leader, it is nationally where the Tories need to win back voters which the polls show only Boris can do, they don't need to win back London and any Tory candidate would still likely lose the capital and Mayoral race again
    Well it strikes me as a little unrealistic. If he could do it then fine, but I don't think he can. London Mayor he can do.

    (Although he may be out of the game anyway - he's not looking great)

    Complete gap otherwise.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,430
    edited May 12
    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    Nigelb said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think what's interesting is that parties representing over 70% of VI have now accepted that immigration is too high and needs to be brought down substantially and I think whichever party is best placed to deliver that will win in 2029. It won't be the Tories because the brand is irreparably damaged in immigration and frankly, no one will believe them even if they do mean what they say. That leaves Labour and Reform. Labour are actually in power which means they can deliver lower immigration using the apparatus of the state.

    I think what they're going to find is the same institutional resistance the Tories faced, the same civil servants like our own bondegezou who is clearly against this and I'm sure were he able to would frustrate all attempts by ministers to bring immigration down. These self satisfied lanyard wearers in the public sector will over reach, force the government to fail as they did with the Tories time and again then we'll end up with a Reform majority.

    Labour will first need to deal with internal dissenters within the civil service and start purging these people or they, like the Tories, will be doomed to failure as they frustrate, delay and block ministers from implementing policies to bring immigration down, deport illegal immigrants and asylum seekers to stop the boats.

    Lanyard wearers is excellent, I must say. I am one, though I'm also a former name badge wearer and "keeper of the PLB".

    The civil service meme was disproven by Truss and Kwarteng. As long as you have the courage of your convictions, you can override them (and ignore the OBR) and enjoy the sunlit uplands.
    While a school governor, I was also (along with every teacher and TA, of course) a lanyard wearer.
    For whatever value I provided, my cost to the taxpayer was zero.
    It's a great way to describe office workers in a slightly derogatory manner, and cuts across private and public. Though it's a bit inaccurate because they are designed to come apart under pressure, so they're not banned in hospitals and construction sites etc.
    More that it's useful to describe people who think they're more important than they are. Their lanyard embodies their persona, they see it as their super power, when they put it on in the morning they think they've become a different person who is better than everyone else. It is the best way to describe the civil service.
    Fair enough. I don't think the term will last because it probably applies to 50%+ of the working population, in a physical sense.

    I wonder if I would work harder if I put my lanyard on when I'm WFH though...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,378
    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1921885064612159914

    Westminster Voting Intention [London]:

    LAB: 30% (-13)
    RFM: 19% (+10)
    CON: 17% (-4)
    LDM: 16% (+5)
    GRN: 15% (+5)

    Via @FindoutnowUK, 4-8 May.
    Changes w/ GE2024.

    Reform are on 21% even in the latest Scotland only poll, so London remains their worst region in the UK

    https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3loou6c7u622t
    The Tories desperately need to select a brilliant candidate for the London Mayorality, and for Reform to select a useless minor celebrity who will decide half way through the campaign that they can't be bothered.

    I would still say the best idea is to give Boris a thorough sheep shearing (and dip) and take a punt on the Bojo magic reminding people of the good times.
    Boris is cooked in London after Brexit, better would be for Cleverly to be Tory candidate for London Mayor and bring back Boris as Leader of the Conservative Party before the next GE as the Tories best hope to see off Farage and Starmer
    I think rather the opposite - Boris could be elected once again as London Mayor, but no chance nationally.
    Well you are wrong.

    Boris failed to win in London even in 2019, nationally however MiC found last week a Johnson led Conservative Party would be on 26%, up 5% from where they are with Kemi. Reform would be on 23%, down 6% from their current 29% with Labour unchanged on 22% and the LDs down 1% to 15%

    https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/rpahhzfk/more-in-common-post-election-briefing-3.pdf (p48)
    Happy to be wrong. What would you prefer him doing though? PM or London Mayor? Ponder it for a while and consider that the electorate is other people much like you. I'm not sure you'll be so certain that I'm wrong.
    Tory leader, it is nationally where the Tories need to win back voters which the polls show only Boris can do, they don't need to win back London and any Tory candidate would still likely lose the capital and Mayoral race again
    Well it strikes me as a little unrealistic. If he could do it then fine, but I don't think he can. London Mayor he can do.

    (Although he may be out of the game anyway - he's not looking great)

    Complete gap otherwise.
    He has done both jobs and Tories only care about where he can most boost them electorally, which is national leader again
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,265
    HYUFD said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1921885064612159914

    Westminster Voting Intention [London]:

    LAB: 30% (-13)
    RFM: 19% (+10)
    CON: 17% (-4)
    LDM: 16% (+5)
    GRN: 15% (+5)

    Via @FindoutnowUK, 4-8 May.
    Changes w/ GE2024.

    Reform are on 21% even in the latest Scotland only poll, so London remains their worst region in the UK

    https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3loou6c7u622t
    The Tories desperately need to select a brilliant candidate for the London Mayorality, and for Reform to select a useless minor celebrity who will decide half way through the campaign that they can't be bothered.

    I would still say the best idea is to give Boris a thorough sheep shearing (and dip) and take a punt on the Bojo magic reminding people of the good times.
    Boris is cooked in London after Brexit, better would be for Cleverly to be Tory candidate for London Mayor and bring back Boris as Leader of the Conservative Party before the next GE as the Tories best hope to see off Farage and Starmer.

    As MiC found in their poll last week only a Johnson led Conservatives would now lead Reform and Labour, a Badenoch, Jenrick, even Cameron led Tories would still trail and a Sunak led Tories at best tie with Reform
    I know you think that but I'm unconvinced.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,495
    Selebian said:

    bondegezou said:

    For clarity, I am not a civil servant.

    I was wondering that. Figured you more for one of the rude ones :wink:

    ETA - but do you wear a lanyard? I don't, but I'm probably in the minority at work; I'm not sure what the official policy is or whether there is one, but no one has ever told me off for it.
    I do wear a lanyard when in the office. Occasionally I have a rainbow lanyard.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,378
    OldKingCole said:

    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1921885064612159914

    Westminster Voting Intention [London]:

    LAB: 30% (-13)
    RFM: 19% (+10)
    CON: 17% (-4)
    LDM: 16% (+5)
    GRN: 15% (+5)

    Via @FindoutnowUK, 4-8 May.
    Changes w/ GE2024.

    Reform are on 21% even in the latest Scotland only poll, so London remains their worst region in the UK

    https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3loou6c7u622t
    The Tories desperately need to select a brilliant candidate for the London Mayorality, and for Reform to select a useless minor celebrity who will decide half way through the campaign that they can't be bothered.

    I would still say the best idea is to give Boris a thorough sheep shearing (and dip) and take a punt on the Bojo magic reminding people of the good times.
    Boris is cooked in London after Brexit, better would be for Cleverly to be Tory candidate for London Mayor and bring back Boris as Leader of the Conservative Party before the next GE as the Tories best hope to see off Farage and Starmer
    I think rather the opposite - Boris could be elected once again as London Mayor, but no chance nationally.
    Well you are wrong.

    Boris failed to win in London even in 2019, nationally however MiC found last week a Johnson led Conservative Party would be on 26%, up 5% from where they are with Kemi. Reform would be on 23%, down 6% from their current 29%, with Labour unchanged on 22% and the LDs down 1% to 15%

    https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/rpahhzfk/more-in-common-post-election-briefing-3.pdf (p48)
    You're definitely siezed of those MiC results, aren't you!
    Give it a year and if we see more polls like that Tory MPs will literally be heading to Oxfordshire to lick Boris' shoes and begging him to return.

  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,838
    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1921885064612159914

    Westminster Voting Intention [London]:

    LAB: 30% (-13)
    RFM: 19% (+10)
    CON: 17% (-4)
    LDM: 16% (+5)
    GRN: 15% (+5)

    Via @FindoutnowUK, 4-8 May.
    Changes w/ GE2024.

    Reform are on 21% even in the latest Scotland only poll, so London remains their worst region in the UK

    https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3loou6c7u622t
    The Tories desperately need to select a brilliant candidate for the London Mayorality, and for Reform to select a useless minor celebrity who will decide half way through the campaign that they can't be bothered.

    I would still say the best idea is to give Boris a thorough sheep shearing (and dip) and take a punt on the Bojo magic reminding people of the good times.
    Boris is cooked in London after Brexit, better would be for Cleverly to be Tory candidate for London Mayor and bring back Boris as Leader of the Conservative Party before the next GE as the Tories best hope to see off Farage and Starmer
    I think rather the opposite - Boris could be elected once again as London Mayor, but no chance nationally.
    Well you are wrong.

    Boris failed to win in London even in 2019, nationally however MiC found last week a Johnson led Conservative Party would be on 26%, up 5% from where they are with Kemi. Reform would be on 23%, down 6% from their current 29% with Labour unchanged on 22% and the LDs down 1% to 15%

    https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/rpahhzfk/more-in-common-post-election-briefing-3.pdf (p48)
    Happy to be wrong. What would you prefer him doing though? PM or London Mayor? Ponder it for a while and consider that the electorate is other people much like you. I'm not sure you'll be so certain that I'm wrong.
    Tory leader, it is nationally where the Tories need to win back voters which the polls show only Boris can do, they don't need to win back London and any Tory candidate would still likely lose the capital and Mayoral race again
    Well it strikes me as a little unrealistic. If he could do it then fine, but I don't think he can. London Mayor he can do.

    (Although he may be out of the game anyway - he's not looking great)

    Complete gap otherwise.
    He has done both jobs and Tories only care about where he can most boost them electorally, which is national leader again
    Well yes - I guess that's true.

    You'll forgive me if I suggest that such narrowness is part of why I'm no longer a Tory party member. Once upon a time other matters mattered.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 25,535
    HYUFD said:

    OldKingCole said:

    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1921885064612159914

    Westminster Voting Intention [London]:

    LAB: 30% (-13)
    RFM: 19% (+10)
    CON: 17% (-4)
    LDM: 16% (+5)
    GRN: 15% (+5)

    Via @FindoutnowUK, 4-8 May.
    Changes w/ GE2024.

    Reform are on 21% even in the latest Scotland only poll, so London remains their worst region in the UK

    https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3loou6c7u622t
    The Tories desperately need to select a brilliant candidate for the London Mayorality, and for Reform to select a useless minor celebrity who will decide half way through the campaign that they can't be bothered.

    I would still say the best idea is to give Boris a thorough sheep shearing (and dip) and take a punt on the Bojo magic reminding people of the good times.
    Boris is cooked in London after Brexit, better would be for Cleverly to be Tory candidate for London Mayor and bring back Boris as Leader of the Conservative Party before the next GE as the Tories best hope to see off Farage and Starmer
    I think rather the opposite - Boris could be elected once again as London Mayor, but no chance nationally.
    Well you are wrong.

    Boris failed to win in London even in 2019, nationally however MiC found last week a Johnson led Conservative Party would be on 26%, up 5% from where they are with Kemi. Reform would be on 23%, down 6% from their current 29%, with Labour unchanged on 22% and the LDs down 1% to 15%

    https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/rpahhzfk/more-in-common-post-election-briefing-3.pdf (p48)
    You're definitely siezed of those MiC results, aren't you!
    Give it a year and if we see more polls like that Tory MPs will literally be heading to Oxfordshire to lick Boris' shoes and begging him to return.

    Give it a year and if we see more polls like that Tory MPs will be too busy dusting up their CVs to lick anyone's shoes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,378
    vik said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    david_herdson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    david_herdson said:

    Sean_F said:

    And yet, she still believes that she is a misunderstood political giant.

    Pop quiz: who was the last Tory leader (or ex-leader) to lose their seat at a general election?
    Pierre Poilievre, I believe it was tipped at 14/1?
    If we're going abroad then it would be Peter Dutton, I think?
    My pedantry excludes Dutton as he was Leader of the Liberal Party whereas PP was a Conservative/Tory.
    The Australian "Liberal" party is a liberal party in name only.

    The Australian Liberals are officially part of the International Democracy Union of right-wing parties, with other members of this alliance being the UK Tories and the Canadian Conservatives/Tories.

    If Poliviere is a Tory then Dutton is also a Tory.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Democracy_Union
    The Australian Liberals are in permanent Coalition with their conservative National Party
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,265
    bondegezou said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1921885064612159914

    Westminster Voting Intention [London]:

    LAB: 30% (-13)
    RFM: 19% (+10)
    CON: 17% (-4)
    LDM: 16% (+5)
    GRN: 15% (+5)

    Via @FindoutnowUK, 4-8 May.
    Changes w/ GE2024.

    Reform are on 21% even in the latest Scotland only poll, so London remains their worst region in the UK

    https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3loou6c7u622t
    The Tories desperately need to select a brilliant candidate for the London Mayorality, and for Reform to select a useless minor celebrity who will decide half way through the campaign that they can't be bothered.

    I would still say the best idea is to give Boris a thorough sheep shearing (and dip) and take a punt on the Bojo magic reminding people of the good times.
    Ant Middleton, a useless minor celebrity, is planning to stand for Reform UK.
    I'd say he's probably not a minor celeb, but I still think he's a beatable candidate.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,495
    MaxPB said:

    maxh said:

    MaxPB said:

    bondegezou said:

    For clarity, I am not a civil servant.

    I know but you embody their won't do attitude perfectly. Overly officious, attached to bureaucracy, think you know best even when you're completely wrong. If I could sum up the civil service into a single person, it would be you.
    A bit man not ball, don't you think, Max?
    Not really, he fully admitted that when he was working in an advisory capacity for the government during COVID he worked against the government of the day and the agenda of ministers.
    The government asked me for my input. I gave that input. That input sometimes disagreed with what the government was doing. What's the point of being asked for your input to then just be a yesman?
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