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Badger versus baboon: The sequel – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,034
    rcs1000 said:

    At the risk of the ban hammer, I will claim a wolverine is a species of badger, and I think could take a baboon.

    I could definitely take a baboon.

    I could take a baboon some kind of snack. If you give them food, they won't bother you.
    And now I have the ending of the film "Sands of the Kalahari" in my head.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,533
    IanB2 said:

    As I’ve been on the road to the Trossachs today, here’s a photo from sunny yesterday. A sad picture of a deserted settlement, its
    residents all having been driven away in the 19th century, so that their landlords could instead make money from sheep farming. Many of them went to Australia, and on the way back I was lucky enough to meet a bunch of Australians in search of where their family had originally come from.

    No dog for scale; lifting him up onto the walls would have been gratuitous.

    Yes, that's how some of my ancestors got to Australia, though from a bit further North on Speyside.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,024
    isam said:

    PJH said:

    On Reform, one thing that nobody is taking into account that it's a One Man Band. Nobody is considering whether Farage has the health or energy for 4 years' slog until the next GE.

    He is 61 but looks 5-10 years older than Starmer, who is actually 2 years his senior. PB was discussing the effect of ageing in our 50s/60s earlier; he himself has hinted that the impact of his air crash has taken its toll on his physical health. What happens if he isn't fit enough to continue? There must be a significant chance of this.

    There is nobody else in Reform to take over (deliberately). How is the Pim Fortuyn List doing these days?

    Likes a drink and a fag too.

    Mind you I think he looks fitter than he used to recently, lost a bit of weight. I was amazed how trim he looked in celebrity jungle, whereas Starmer is a proper porker. I wouldn’t say he looked younger than Farage
    He does because of 3 things. Skin, hair, teeth. That said, I don't think Nigel looks at all bad for a sixtyish lifetime drinker smoker right wing populist. My sense is he doesn't do any of those things (apart from the populism) quite as much as his image portrays. Bet he's actually 10 silk cut and 4 units. He's no piss artist or chain puffer. He'll be up for GE29 no problem.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,961
    Chris said:

    I think it depends entirely whether any of the men are William Shatner.

    image

    From the episode ‘Arena’
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,932

    Chris said:

    I think it depends entirely whether any of the men are William Shatner.

    image

    Shatner suggested yesterday that the USA should become Canada's fourteenth state.
    Back in 1979, the "joke" Rhinoceros Party ran on a platform of:

    "Annexing the United States, which would take its place as the third territory in Canada's backyard (after the Yukon and the Northwest Territories—Nunavut did not yet exist), in order to eliminate foreign control of Canada's natural resources."

    and also to:

    "Bring Great Britain home and make it Canada's eleventh province."

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rhinoceros_Party
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,586
    ...

    The seaman's semen appears to have gotten him into trouble.

    The head of the Royal Navy has been suspended over claims he had an affair with a subordinate, sources have disclosed.

    Admiral Sir Ben Key, 59, a married father of three, was told to “step back from all duties” while an investigation is carried out, it is understood.

    It is the first time in the Royal Navy’s 500-year history that its first sea lord has faced a misconduct inquiry.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/head-royal-navy-suspended-affair-pfbm3m9jq

    With Jolly Jack Tar or Jolly Jill Tar?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,414

    The seaman's semen appears to have gotten him into trouble.

    The head of the Royal Navy has been suspended over claims he had an affair with a subordinate, sources have disclosed.

    Admiral Sir Ben Key, 59, a married father of three, was told to “step back from all duties” while an investigation is carried out, it is understood.

    It is the first time in the Royal Navy’s 500-year history that its first sea lord has faced a misconduct inquiry.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/head-royal-navy-suspended-affair-pfbm3m9jq

    If only there was someone who could provide us with an insight on naval shenanigans.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,470
    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    So it turns out Find Out Now aren't dodgy, they are more like Find Out First

    Pay attention to the ones they do/don’t caveat as they’ve added this caveat.

    This poll was initiated solely by Find Out Now and not funded by any third party
    Sorry, I am confused! Genuinely. Isn't this poll BMG?
    After the election last week shy Reformers seem to have decided fash is fine.

    Perhaps they have been replaced by shy Tories and Labourites.
    "Fash"

    Grow up. Do you honestly believe Reform under Nigel Farage are "fascist", or anything even close to it? Because they're not. Not at all. The comparison is juvenile and wanky and makes you sound like a 13 year old

    If a proper actual Fascist party approaches power in the UK you will bloody well notice it, but you will have no words to describe the exceptional nature of this evolution, because you used them all up on Reform
    The guys a complete spacker. Just ignore him. His politics is analogous to Rik from the Young ones. He also seems to get off on baiting you. Just ignore. Your experience here won’t be worse for it.
    You're concerned about someone baiting Leon ?

    That's the ultimate in snowflakery.

    Leon couldn't give a hoot about political criticism. It's only the personal stuff which occasionally riles him (as with all of us).
    I suspect he’s off carrying on with his AI ‘alcoholic girlfriend’ (a snip at just £20 a month) and not the least bit interested with what’s going down on PB right now?
    As long as it doesn't try to convince him to kill the King...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,533
    edited May 9
    I once met a fellow who killed an adult leopard with his bare hands, at an Afrikaaner wedding. He was 6 foot 4 and nearly as broad, and all solid muscle. The incident happened when he was in the SADF, and infiltrating a Cuban army camp in the Angolan war on a night reconnisance. While observing the enemy forces he was attacked from behind by the leopard, and had to strangle it while making a minimum of noise, so as to not give away the patrol.

    He did have significant scars to back up his story, and a mean enough countenance to stop me probing more.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,586
    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    So it turns out Find Out Now aren't dodgy, they are more like Find Out First

    Pay attention to the ones they do/don’t caveat as they’ve added this caveat.

    This poll was initiated solely by Find Out Now and not funded by any third party
    Sorry, I am confused! Genuinely. Isn't this poll BMG?
    After the election last week shy Reformers seem to have decided fash is fine.

    Perhaps they have been replaced by shy Tories and Labourites.
    "Fash"

    Grow up. Do you honestly believe Reform under Nigel Farage are "fascist", or anything even close to it? Because they're not. Not at all. The comparison is juvenile and wanky and makes you sound like a 13 year old

    If a proper actual Fascist party approaches power in the UK you will bloody well notice it, but you will have no words to describe the exceptional nature of this evolution, because you used them all up on Reform
    As if calling someone a fascist on here would wound it’s target rather than prompt an eye roll at the pure wallyness of the name caller
    Sorry I missed your post Isam, but I scroll past your posts for the most part. And by the way the reference was to Farage and not Leon, but if any of you feel that cap fits you are welcome to wear it. And that is your individual choice and not my allusion.

  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,884

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    That's harsh but it's fair in two respects. He does lack charisma and he's a manager not a visionary. However a charismatic persona and a grand vision are imo overrated in politics compared to competence and good intentions. I'd always take the latter. And it's what we need. We're a free and prosperous country which could be better in many respects, not a broken shithole of a place.
    I agree on that. Britain is a lovely place to be on a day like this.

    I think the doom and gloom is heavily overdone by those plastic patriots determined to talk down the country.
    I've noticed a tendency among the kind of people who like to complain about misinformation to stubbornly cling to an idea of the way things are that is based purely on the way they would like things to be, or the way they imagine things to be, or even the way they remember that things used to be. They are impervious to anything that contradicts this, even if it is meticulously factual and supported by evidence from sources that they would normally regard as authoritative.
    Very true. The shoplifting argument was vivid evidence of this

    The blinkered centrist Dads insisting it's "always been like this", "I worked in retail a decade ago, nothing has changed"

    This despite PBers offering personal lived experience

    Even when we showed the Centrist Dads the actual hard evidence - a ten fold increase in shoplifting in ten years, according to the Economist - they then claimed they'd always accepted this, or they pretended that it was some statistical anomaly
    Same with immigration; centrist Dads are defending numbers they’d never have believed possible a decade ago, and calling people who want a return to coalition style figures of 250k ‘Fascists’
    Are they? I have genuinely no idea why the Tories (hardly centrist dads) presided over such a huge rise in net migration and I've literally not heard anyone on the centre left say that it was great. Indeed, most have simply pointed out the irony that it was Brexit that seems to have facilitated the surge. I mean, it is pretty funny.
    Personally I don't have strong feelings about immigration. I would just like to have a system that is fair and humane and balances competing imperatives of the labour market, fairness for existing workers, pressure on housing and infrastructure, allowing universities to meet global demand from students, and international obligations to help refugees. People on here bang on about it too much though, it's getting boring.
    Immigration is now starting to fall net after Rishi raised the wage requirement for visas and cut the ability of dependents to come in too
    Ironically among the skills we need is that of care workers and nurses who are paid nowhere near the levels Rishi set. Especially care workers.
    Care work, with all due respect, is not skilled work. Anyone can do it, it does not require any qualification. Ideally you'd want the people doing it to have certain qualities, eg being caring, but just dumping it on anyone who
    will take minimum wage is not a way to get that.

    If care homes want staff, they could offer significantly more than minimum wage, then they would find many people who want to do the job - but why work cleaning people's bums for minimum wage when you could do something far less gross, for more money, by eg working minimum wage plus tips in hospitality?
    You know how many regulations there are about care home work, right?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,024
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Chris said:

    I think it depends entirely whether any of the men are William Shatner.

    image

    I remember that episode! I watched it as a teenager and even way back then spotted how loaded its intended messages were.
    The only Star Trek that I have ever watched was the original series, most of it when it first was broadcast.

    It's a fairly transparent allegory of US liberal interventionism, and presents an optimistic world view of technological and social progress. Very much of its time.

    It should be redone by Putin as a revisionist series "The Klingons and their oppressors".
    I'd take all of them over the current shower.

    Kirk over Trump
    Spock over Musk
    Uhura over Gabbard
    Scottie over Duffy
    McCoy over RFK jnr
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,722

    kinabalu said:

    Sorry, I don’t have the energy this afternoon to write a proper PB thread.

    Please enjoy this thread.

    A thread's a thread in my book and this is no exception.

    So one in fifty think they could take down a lion? Wow. There's some tough nuts out there.
    That’s about the test level - 3% of Americans believe they have been decapitated
    And who is to say they are wrong?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,511
    edited May 9

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    So it turns out Find Out Now aren't dodgy, they are more like Find Out First

    Pay attention to the ones they do/don’t caveat as they’ve added this caveat.

    This poll was initiated solely by Find Out Now and not funded by any third party
    Sorry, I am confused! Genuinely. Isn't this poll BMG?
    After the election last week shy Reformers seem to have decided fash is fine.

    Perhaps they have been replaced by shy Tories and Labourites.
    "Fash"

    Grow up. Do you honestly believe Reform under Nigel Farage are "fascist", or anything even close to it? Because they're not. Not at all. The comparison is juvenile and wanky and makes you sound like a 13 year old

    If a proper actual Fascist party approaches power in the UK you will bloody well notice it, but you will have no words to describe the exceptional nature of this evolution, because you used them all up on Reform
    As if calling someone a fascist on here would wound it’s target rather than prompt an eye roll at the pure wallyness of the name caller
    Sorry I missed your post Isam, but I scroll past your posts for the most part. And by the way the reference was to Farage and not Leon, but if any of you feel that cap fits you are welcome to wear it. And that is your individual choice and not my allusion.

    Honestly, soooo boring. How can you be bothered to come on here just snipe at people with snide remarks all day? Why don’t you try offering some political or betting insight once in a while?

    If only you really did scroll past my posts for the most part
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,614

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    That's harsh but it's fair in two respects. He does lack charisma and he's a manager not a visionary. However a charismatic persona and a grand vision are imo overrated in politics compared to competence and good intentions. I'd always take the latter. And it's what we need. We're a free and prosperous country which could be better in many respects, not a broken shithole of a place.
    I agree on that. Britain is a lovely place to be on a day like this.

    I think the doom and gloom is heavily overdone by those plastic patriots determined to talk down the country.
    I've noticed a tendency among the kind of people who like to complain about misinformation to stubbornly cling to an idea of the way things are that is based purely on the way they would like things to be, or the way they imagine things to be, or even the way they remember that things used to be. They are impervious to anything that contradicts this, even if it is meticulously factual and supported by evidence from sources that they would normally regard as authoritative.
    Very true. The shoplifting argument was vivid evidence of this

    The blinkered centrist Dads insisting it's "always been like this", "I worked in retail a decade ago, nothing has changed"

    This despite PBers offering personal lived experience

    Even when we showed the Centrist Dads the actual hard evidence - a ten fold increase in shoplifting in ten years, according to the Economist - they then claimed they'd always accepted this, or they pretended that it was some statistical anomaly
    Same with immigration; centrist Dads are defending numbers they’d never have believed possible a decade ago, and calling people who want a return to coalition style figures of 250k ‘Fascists’
    Are they? I have genuinely no idea why the Tories (hardly centrist dads) presided over such a huge rise in net migration and I've literally not heard anyone on the centre left say that it was great. Indeed, most have simply pointed out the irony that it was Brexit that seems to have facilitated the surge. I mean, it is pretty funny.
    Personally I don't have strong feelings about immigration. I would just like to have a system that is fair and humane and balances competing imperatives of the labour market, fairness for existing workers, pressure on housing and infrastructure, allowing universities to meet global demand from students, and international obligations to help refugees. People on here bang on about it too much though, it's getting boring.
    Immigration is now starting to fall net after Rishi raised the wage requirement for visas and cut the ability of dependents to come in too
    Ironically among the skills we need is that of care workers and nurses who are paid nowhere near the levels Rishi set. Especially care workers.
    Care work, with all due respect, is not skilled work. Anyone can do it, it does not require any qualification. Ideally you'd want the people doing it to have certain qualities, eg being caring, but just dumping it on anyone who
    will take minimum wage is not a way to get that.

    If care homes want staff, they could offer significantly more than minimum wage, then they would find many people who want to do the job - but why work cleaning people's bums for minimum wage when you could do something far less gross, for more money, by eg working minimum wage plus tips in hospitality?
    You know how many regulations there are about care home work, right?
    Oh absolutely, 100%, I do. My wife works in a care home and has to do regular safeguarding and other training as do all her colleagues.

    But it is not "skilled" work that needs those skills importing, it is work anyone can do without any qualifications. Any school leaver could get a job in a care home and be trained to meet those regulations.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,467
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Chris said:

    I think it depends entirely whether any of the men are William Shatner.

    image

    I remember that episode! I watched it as a teenager and even way back then spotted how loaded its intended messages were.
    The only Star Trek that I have ever watched was the original series, most of it when it first was broadcast.

    It's a fairly transparent allegory of US liberal interventionism, and presents an optimistic world view of technological and social progress. Very much of its time.

    It should be redone by Putin as a revisionist series "The Klingons and their oppressors".
    I thought that much of the allegory was about the dangers of intervention - hence the Prime Directive.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,165

    Scott_xP said:

    Senile Old Man ranting at the TV again

    https://x.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1920887571741090256

    It's all about ratings with Trump. He has no other point of reference, even whilst destroying the economy.

    The only thing that will get to him is when most people turn off when he appears on the TV.
    I rate him godawful.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,884
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    That's harsh but it's fair in two respects. He does lack charisma and he's a manager not a visionary. However a charismatic persona and a grand vision are imo overrated in politics compared to competence and good intentions. I'd always take the latter. And it's what we need. We're a free and prosperous country which could be better in many respects, not a broken shithole of a place.
    I agree on that. Britain is a lovely place to be on a day like this.

    I think the doom and gloom is heavily overdone by those plastic patriots determined to talk down the country.
    I've noticed a tendency among the kind of people who like to complain about misinformation to stubbornly cling to an idea of the way things are that is based purely on the way they would like things to be, or the way they imagine things to be, or even the way they remember that things used to be. They are impervious to anything that contradicts this, even if it is meticulously factual and supported by evidence from sources that they would normally regard as authoritative.
    Very true. The shoplifting argument was vivid evidence of this

    The blinkered centrist Dads insisting it's "always been like this", "I worked in retail a decade ago, nothing has changed"

    This despite PBers offering personal lived experience

    Even when we showed the Centrist Dads the actual hard evidence - a ten fold increase in shoplifting in ten years, according to the Economist - they then claimed they'd always accepted this, or they pretended that it was some statistical anomaly
    Same with immigration; centrist Dads are defending numbers they’d never have believed possible a decade ago, and calling people who want a return to coalition style figures of 250k ‘Fascists’
    Are they? I have genuinely no idea why the Tories (hardly centrist dads) presided over such a huge rise in net migration and I've literally not heard anyone on the centre left say that it was great. Indeed, most have simply pointed out the irony that it was Brexit that seems to have facilitated the surge. I mean, it is pretty funny.
    Personally I don't have strong feelings about immigration. I would just like to have a system that is fair and humane and balances competing imperatives of the labour market, fairness for existing workers, pressure on housing and infrastructure, allowing universities to meet global demand from students, and international obligations to help refugees. People on here bang on about it too much though, it's getting boring.
    Immigration is now starting to fall net after Rishi raised the wage requirement for visas and cut the ability of dependents to come in too
    Ironically among the skills we need is that of care workers and nurses who are paid nowhere near the levels Rishi set. Especially care workers.
    Care work, with all due respect, is not skilled work. Anyone can do it, it does not require any qualification. Ideally you'd want the people doing it to have certain qualities, eg being caring, but just dumping it on anyone who will take minimum wage is not a way to get that.

    If care homes want staff, they could offer significantly more than minimum wage, then they would find many people who want to do the job - but why work cleaning people's bums for minimum wage when you could do something far less gross, for more money, by eg working minimum wage plus tips in hospitality?
    The fundamental problem is that (a) most people in care homes have their bills paid
    for buy the local authority, (b) the number of
    people needing care homes grows every
    year, and (c) local councils have no money.

    Care homes have not been enormously
    profitable businesses: Four Seasons Health
    was one of the largest care home providers
    in the UK, and went bust in 2019. They ran
    322 home and had 22,000 staff. Before
    then, Southern Cross Healthcare, which
    was the largest provider in the UK, went
    bust.
    The well managed ones make margins of around 18%. Four Seasons was massively over leveraged by Guy Hands and has never recovered

  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,236

    The seaman's semen appears to have gotten him into trouble.

    The head of the Royal Navy has been suspended over claims he had an affair with a subordinate, sources have disclosed.

    Admiral Sir Ben Key, 59, a married father of three, was told to “step back from all duties” while an investigation is carried out, it is understood.

    It is the first time in the Royal Navy’s 500-year history that its first sea lord has faced a misconduct inquiry.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/head-royal-navy-suspended-affair-pfbm3m9jq

    Everybody knows that Women and Seamen don't mix

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BlpRBo5QiY
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,614
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    Betfair Exchange have added "Overall Majority" to their General Election markets. No money there and wide spreads, but looks like NOM is odds on

    Conservatives 12/1!

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.243393188

    A screaming lay?
    QTWAIN.

    That's a 7.5% return if they don't get a majority in 4 years time, less than 2% per annum, doesn't even meet inflation.

    And in the extremely unlikely, but entirely possible, event that they do actually get a majority then you lose your stake, all to try to get a return below inflation.

    Avoid.
    You don’t think, as the Trump slump spreads around the world, interest rates will soon be back to near zero?
    Interest rates or inflation? As I said inflation, but you said interest rates.

    They might be, or they might not be, but I would not be prepared to tie up cash for 4 years to get a 7.5% return after 4 years - even if that was a guaranteed bond not a bet, it is not a great investment.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,341
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Chris said:

    I think it depends entirely whether any of the men are William Shatner.

    image

    I remember that episode! I watched it as a teenager and even way back then spotted how loaded its intended messages were.
    The only Star Trek that I have ever watched was the original series, most of it when it first was broadcast.

    It's a fairly transparent allegory of US liberal interventionism, and presents an optimistic world view of technological and social progress. Very much of its time.

    It should be redone by Putin as a revisionist series "The Klingons and their oppressors".
    I loved the tv series and the Voyage Home although dated now was a great film given its central theme of what humanity is doing to the planet by way of species becoming extinct .
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,586
    edited May 9
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    So it turns out Find Out Now aren't dodgy, they are more like Find Out First

    Pay attention to the ones they do/don’t caveat as they’ve added this caveat.

    This poll was initiated solely by Find Out Now and not funded by any third party
    Sorry, I am confused! Genuinely. Isn't this poll BMG?
    After the election last week shy Reformers seem to have decided fash is fine.

    Perhaps they have been replaced by shy Tories and Labourites.
    "Fash"

    Grow up. Do you honestly believe Reform under Nigel Farage are "fascist", or anything even close to it? Because they're not. Not at all. The comparison is juvenile and wanky and makes you sound like a 13 year old

    If a proper actual Fascist party approaches power in the UK you will bloody well notice it, but you will have no words to describe the exceptional nature of this evolution, because you used them all up on Reform
    As if calling someone a fascist on here would wound it’s target rather than prompt an eye roll at the pure wallyness of the name caller
    Sorry I missed your post Isam, but I scroll past your posts for the most part. And by the way the reference was to Farage and not Leon, but if any of you feel that cap fits you are welcome to wear it. And that is your individual choice and not my allusion.

    Honestly, soooo boring. How can you be bothered to come on here just snipe at people with snide remarks all day? Why don’t you try offering some political or betting insight once in a while?

    If only you really did scroll past my posts for the most part
    I appreciate your betting insight. You are one of the more astute punters on here. That statement is written without irony!

    I do not engage with you politically because as we are diametrically opposed it seems optimal not to debate with you. I have made several observations today including "the fash is fine" post which has offended you and Taz so much.

    If you don't like my posts just scroll past. If you feel I need a ban that is what the flag is for.

    And please believe me, for the most part I do scroll past your posts, and you are more than welcome to reciprocate.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,165
    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    So it turns out Find Out Now aren't dodgy, they are more like Find Out First

    Pay attention to the ones they do/don’t caveat as they’ve added this caveat.

    This poll was initiated solely by Find Out Now and not funded by any third party
    Sorry, I am confused! Genuinely. Isn't this poll BMG?
    After the election last week shy Reformers seem to have decided fash is fine.

    Perhaps they have been replaced by shy Tories and Labourites.
    "Fash"

    Grow up. Do you honestly believe Reform under Nigel Farage are "fascist", or anything even close to it? Because they're not. Not at all. The comparison is juvenile and wanky and makes you sound like a 13 year old

    If a proper actual Fascist party approaches power in the UK you will bloody well notice it, but you will have no words to describe the exceptional nature of this evolution, because you used them all up on Reform
    The guys a complete spacker. Just ignore him. His politics is analogous to Rik from the Young ones. He also seems to get off on baiting you. Just ignore. Your experience here won’t be worse for it.
    You're concerned about someone baiting Leon ?

    That's the ultimate in snowflakery.

    Leon couldn't give a hoot about political criticism. It's only the personal stuff which occasionally riles him (as with all of us).
    No shit, Sherlock. Any other pearls of wisdumb. Yeah, I’m gravely concerned. It stresses me greatly. I spend my every waking moment fretting about it. 😂😂😂
    Yes, Watson.
    It was indeed your comment I replied to.
    Plonker.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,511

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    So it turns out Find Out Now aren't dodgy, they are more like Find Out First

    Pay attention to the ones they do/don’t caveat as they’ve added this caveat.

    This poll was initiated solely by Find Out Now and not funded by any third party
    Sorry, I am confused! Genuinely. Isn't this poll BMG?
    After the election last week shy Reformers seem to have decided fash is fine.

    Perhaps they have been replaced by shy Tories and Labourites.
    "Fash"

    Grow up. Do you honestly believe Reform under Nigel Farage are "fascist", or anything even close to it? Because they're not. Not at all. The comparison is juvenile and wanky and makes you sound like a 13 year old

    If a proper actual Fascist party approaches power in the UK you will bloody well notice it, but you will have no words to describe the exceptional nature of this evolution, because you used them all up on Reform
    As if calling someone a fascist on here would wound it’s target rather than prompt an eye roll at the pure wallyness of the name caller
    Sorry I missed your post Isam, but I scroll past your posts for the most part. And by the way the reference was to Farage and not Leon, but if any of you feel that cap fits you are welcome to wear it. And that is your individual choice and not my allusion.

    Honestly, soooo boring. How can you be bothered to come on here just snipe at people with snide remarks all day? Why don’t you try offering some political or betting insight once in a while?

    If only you really did scroll past my posts for the most part
    I appreciate your betting insight. You are one of the more astute punters on here. That statement is written without irony!

    I do not engage with you politically because as we are diametrically opposed it seems optimal not to debate with you. I have made several observations today including "the fash is fine" post which has offended you and Taz so much.

    If you don't like my posts just scroll past. If you feel I need a ban that is what the flag is for.

    And please believe me, for the most part I do scroll past your posts, and you are more than welcome to reciprocate.
    Well the fact is you make snide comments in reply to my posts quite often, and I rarely do to yours.

    The ‘fash’ line hasn’t offended me in the slightest, it just makes you look ridiculous. I don’t want you banned, don’t know where you get that from. If the level of lunacy gets too much I can always take a break
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,302
    Foxy said:

    I once met a fellow who killed an adult leopard with his bare hands, at an Afrikaaner wedding. He was 6 foot 4 and nearly as broad, and all solid muscle. The incident happened when he was in the SADF, and infiltrating a Cuban army camp in the Angolan war on a night reconnisance. While observing the enemy forces he was attacked from behind by the leopard, and had to strangle it while making a minimum of noise, so as to not give away the patrol.

    He did have significant scars to back up his story, and a mean enough countenance to stop me probing more.

    For some reason I initially read that as him having killed the leopard AT the wedding.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,496
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Chris said:

    I think it depends entirely whether any of the men are William Shatner.

    image

    I remember that episode! I watched it as a teenager and even way back then spotted how loaded its intended messages were.
    The only Star Trek that I have ever watched was the original series, most of it when it first was broadcast.

    It's a fairly transparent allegory of US liberal interventionism, and presents an optimistic world view of technological and social progress. Very much of its time.

    It should be redone by Putin as a revisionist series "The Klingons and their oppressors".
    There are numerous tales to be told of how Star Trek: The Original Series got to be the way it was, but basically it was an outer space version of Wagon Train crossed with Gene Roddenberry's obsessions (God Bad! Sex Good! Boobies Great!) and some good directors and writers. I won't bore you with the full gubbins.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,165
    White House ‘actively looking’ at suspending habeas corpus in immigration crackdown
    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5292820-white-house-miller-immigration-crackdown/

    That never turns out well.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,060
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    At the risk of the ban hammer, I will claim a wolverine is a species of badger, and I think could take a baboon.

    I could definitely take a baboon.

    I could take a baboon some kind of snack. If you give them food, they won't bother you.
    Or offer sex.
    Sadly, I've been rebuffed multiple times on baboon dating apps, so I'm not so confident that'll work.
    Insufficiently colourful bottom?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,533

    Foxy said:

    I once met a fellow who killed an adult leopard with his bare hands, at an Afrikaaner wedding. He was 6 foot 4 and nearly as broad, and all solid muscle. The incident happened when he was in the SADF, and infiltrating a Cuban army camp in the Angolan war on a night reconnisance. While observing the enemy forces he was attacked from behind by the leopard, and had to strangle it while making a minimum of noise, so as to not give away the patrol.

    He did have significant scars to back up his story, and a mean enough countenance to stop me probing more.

    For some reason I initially read that as him having killed the leopard AT the wedding.
    It was an unusual wedding, and quite a floor show, but not quite to that gladitorial standard!
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,884
    rcs1000 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sorry, I don’t have the energy this afternoon to write a proper PB thread.

    Please enjoy this thread.

    A thread's a thread in my book and this is no exception.

    So one in fifty think they could take down a lion? Wow. There's some tough nuts out there.
    That’s about the test level - 3% of Americans believe they have been decapitated
    And who is to say they are wrong?
    When I was first in LA someone ran amok with 2 samurai swords a couple of streets over from me
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,533

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Chris said:

    I think it depends entirely whether any of the men are William Shatner.

    image

    I remember that episode! I watched it as a teenager and even way back then spotted how loaded its intended messages were.
    The only Star Trek that I have ever watched was the original series, most of it when it first was broadcast.

    It's a fairly transparent allegory of US liberal interventionism, and presents an optimistic world view of technological and social progress. Very much of its time.

    It should be redone by Putin as a revisionist series "The Klingons and their oppressors".
    I thought that much of the allegory was about the dangers of intervention - hence the Prime Directive.
    Well, it was made at the height of the American war in Vietnam.

    There were even Space Hippies in one episode, and the theme of controlling man's aggression a recurring one.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,681
    rcs1000 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sorry, I don’t have the energy this afternoon to write a proper PB thread.

    Please enjoy this thread.

    A thread's a thread in my book and this is no exception.

    So one in fifty think they could take down a lion? Wow. There's some tough nuts out there.
    That’s about the test level - 3% of Americans believe they have been decapitated
    And who is to say they are wrong?
    If I met an American in a MAGA cap, I would personally remove it. Maybe I’m the cause of the 3%.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,165
    Be interested to know what @Leon makes of Carême.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,734
    viewcode said:
    Didn't they get like a £20bn bung last year? I guess KPMG and their ilk will have swallowed a lot of it...
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,060

    rcs1000 said:

    Define victory?

    If 97 of the unarmed men die, and the 98th kills the silverback gorilla, then did the men "win"?

    I've given this some thought.

    Partly depends on the location. Easier if in a gorilla enclosure. Tougher if the situation is open ground. But gorillas need trees to nest in, so there's likely to be trees.

    Say the gorilla is a BIG bastard - he still won't exceed 500 pound. Not quite 36 stone.

    Let's say the men are 12 stone each - that is a total mass of men of 1,200 stone.

    Firstly, surround the gorilla. Say 10 deep. The chaps facing the gorilla are going to get a hell of a beating. But maybe only the first three or four rows. The rest just pile in to crush the gorilla. Easier if there is a tree to push him against, easier still if a wall. Those at his back can soon pin his arms and legs. The weight of dead bloke bodies will also cause the gorilla to lose mobility and movement. Let's say he kills twenty guys - that is still 240 stone or well over one and a half tonnes pressing down on him. By now, the gorilla has the dead weight of a small car on his body, with four more cars crushing into him.

    Even if nobody manages to get a choke hold on him, I suspect he would not last more than a minute before he is asphyxiated. 80 guys - some admittedly maimed - would then have to ensure that they were not crushing each other.

    It would require a lot of teamwork, but sheer weight and numbers are too great for the gorilla to beat off.
    *Gets mind out of the gutter*
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,734
    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Chris said:

    I think it depends entirely whether any of the men are William Shatner.

    image

    I remember that episode! I watched it as a teenager and even way back then spotted how loaded its intended messages were.
    The only Star Trek that I have ever watched was the original series, most of it when it first was broadcast.

    It's a fairly transparent allegory of US liberal interventionism, and presents an optimistic world view of technological and social progress. Very much of its time.

    It should be redone by Putin as a revisionist series "The Klingons and their oppressors".
    There are numerous tales to be told of how Star Trek: The Original Series got to be the way it was, but basically it was an outer space version of Wagon Train crossed with Gene Roddenberry's obsessions (God Bad! Sex Good! Boobies Great!) and some good directors and writers. I won't bore you with the full gubbins.
    'The Starlost' is a quite fabulous "lost gem" from a few years later featuring some Star Trek people. There is a seed of an amazing sci-fi in it - but.... boy oh boy. The wikipedia page details just a tiny bit of the mess :

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Starlost

    image

    If someone could untangle the legal mess around it - I think there's a reboot goldmine to be had. Possibly.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,060
    TimS said:

    I think I mentioned a couple of weeks ago a sheep was attacked and killed, and eaten, in my vineyard. The farmer was understandably upset.

    It has left a mystery which has seen me turning to questions like that posed in this survey. What kind of animal could, and would, have the means and motive to do this to a fully grown large ewe?

    The options are:

    - Dog - apparently labradors are the worst for sheep attacks, but they rarely actually eat them
    - Wolf: wildwood wolf sanctuary isn’t far away but no reports of escapes
    - Big cat: we’re a few miles from Howletts zoo, but again no reports
    - Humans with a grudge: no evidence of clean knife wounds, but this was apparently the second time it’s happened and might they have taken it, got a dog to eat it, then put it back?

    He should look after his flock.

    I have no time for irresponsible farmers.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,165
    ohnotnow said:

    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Chris said:

    I think it depends entirely whether any of the men are William Shatner.

    image

    I remember that episode! I watched it as a teenager and even way back then spotted how loaded its intended messages were.
    The only Star Trek that I have ever watched was the original series, most of it when it first was broadcast.

    It's a fairly transparent allegory of US liberal interventionism, and presents an optimistic world view of technological and social progress. Very much of its time.

    It should be redone by Putin as a revisionist series "The Klingons and their oppressors".
    There are numerous tales to be told of how Star Trek: The Original Series got to be the way it was, but basically it was an outer space version of Wagon Train crossed with Gene Roddenberry's obsessions (God Bad! Sex Good! Boobies Great!) and some good directors and writers. I won't bore you with the full gubbins.
    'The Starlost' is a quite fabulous "lost gem" from a few years later featuring some Star Trek people. There is a seed of an amazing sci-fi in it - but.... boy oh boy. The wikipedia page details just a tiny bit of the mess :

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Starlost

    image

    If someone could untangle the legal mess around it - I think there's a reboot goldmine to be had. Possibly.
    That's Harlan.

    .. Ellison broke with the project before the airing of its first episode..
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,533
    ohnotnow said:

    viewcode said:
    Didn't they get like a £20bn bung last year? I guess KPMG and their ilk will have swallowed a lot of it...
    Yes, but I think that sum quoted was over several years, albeit somewhat frontloaded.

    My own Trust ended the last financial year with a £100 million overspend, and we are far from the worst in the country, indeed better than most comparable sized Trusts. We have been told that the workforce will shrink this year at all grades and areas. Most of the increased funding goes to GPs and community services, probably a wise decision.

    The problem is that emergency attendances and admissions are relentlessly up 10% or so year on year. It's clearly a core part of the hospital service, but our income for the extra work is capped, hence emergency services are running at a continuous loss.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,797
    viewcode said:
    Bastard Tori....oh.

    If they are Labour NHS cuts, they will be very caring and sensitive.

    But at least they won't enjoy the cuts.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,424

    viewcode said:
    Bastard Tori....oh.

    If they are Labour NHS cuts, they will be very caring and sensitive.

    But at least they won't enjoy the cuts.
    “Unthinkable” cuts? Jeez. What are the odds the the NHS budget will be bigger in real terms at the end of the current Parliament?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,717
    edited May 9
    RobD said:

    viewcode said:
    Bastard Tori....oh.

    If they are Labour NHS cuts, they will be very caring and sensitive.

    But at least they won't enjoy the cuts.
    “Unthinkable” cuts? Jeez. What are the odds the the NHS budget will be bigger in real terms at the end of the current Parliament?
    It was under the Tories too, but that didn't stop substantial cuts.

    If income rises by less than costs you get cuts.

    As Labour are also about to graphically demonstrate in schools, where far from hiring extra teacher substantial reductions are being made for next year.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,368
    edited May 9

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    Betfair Exchange have added "Overall Majority" to their General Election markets. No money there and wide spreads, but looks like NOM is odds on

    Conservatives 12/1!

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.243393188

    A screaming lay?
    QTWAIN.

    That's a 7.5% return if they don't get a majority in 4 years time, less than 2% per annum, doesn't even meet inflation.

    And in the extremely unlikely, but entirely possible, event that they do actually get a majority then you lose your stake, all to try to get a return below inflation.

    Avoid.
    You don’t think, as the Trump slump spreads around the world, interest rates will soon be back to near zero?
    Interest rates or inflation? As I said inflation, but you said interest rates.

    They might be, or they might not be, but I would not be prepared to tie up cash for 4 years to get a 7.5% return after 4 years - even if that was a guaranteed bond not a bet, it is not a great investment.
    Interest rates are your opportunity cost.

    Anyhow, in other news, visitors to Scotland should note that, in a good year at least, the first midges start appearing round about now.

    Which, from previous visits there, I know is pretty much the same time as when the serious mozzies start appearing in Italy.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,165
    Tangentially, @ydoethur missed a trick.

    The new Pope has a degree in mathematics from Villanova University.

    This guy doesn’t just understand sin. He understands cos.

    https://x.com/deedydas/status/1920537165995397516
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,717
    edited May 9
    Nigelb said:

    Tangentially, @ydoethur missed a trick.

    The new Pope has a degree in mathematics from Villanova University.

    This guy doesn’t just understand sin. He understands cos.

    https://x.com/deedydas/status/1920537165995397516

    I just thought we could do without going off at a tan, gent.

    Otherwise, we might end up confused if not positively pi-eyed.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,060
    Nigelb said:

    Tangentially, @ydoethur missed a trick.

    The new Pope has a degree in mathematics from Villanova University.

    This guy doesn’t just understand sin. He understands cos.

    https://x.com/deedydas/status/1920537165995397516

    I don't think Ydoethur did miss that trick.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,376
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Tangentially, @ydoethur missed a trick.

    The new Pope has a degree in mathematics from Villanova University.

    This guy doesn’t just understand sin. He understands cos.

    https://x.com/deedydas/status/1920537165995397516

    I just thought we could do without going off at a tan, gent.

    Otherwise, we might end up confused if not positively pi-eyed.
    Fluent in Italian, Latin and Spanish too I think.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,414
    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    viewcode said:
    Didn't they get like a £20bn bung last year? I guess KPMG and their ilk will have swallowed a lot of it...
    Yes, but I think that sum quoted was over several years, albeit somewhat frontloaded.

    My own Trust ended the last financial year with a £100 million overspend, and we are far from the worst in the country, indeed better than most comparable sized Trusts. We have been told that the workforce will shrink this year at all grades and areas. Most of the increased funding goes to GPs and community services, probably a wise decision.

    The problem is that emergency attendances and admissions are relentlessly up 10% or so year on year. It's clearly a core part of the hospital service, but our income for the extra work is capped, hence emergency services are running at a continuous loss.
    10% is just insane. Getting increasingly fed up with people who just say "demographics" ad infinitum. There's a lot more going on.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,060
    Pulpstar said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Tangentially, @ydoethur missed a trick.

    The new Pope has a degree in mathematics from Villanova University.

    This guy doesn’t just understand sin. He understands cos.

    https://x.com/deedydas/status/1920537165995397516

    I just thought we could do without going off at a tan, gent.

    Otherwise, we might end up confused if not positively pi-eyed.
    Fluent in Italian, Latin and Spanish too I think.
    Hopefully he won't give sermons from the balcony in Americanese. I mean if ever there was a smiting offence.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,165
    Perfect for the daily commute.

    If they can get the price down to about 10% of the current $190k.

    The Helix is an EVTOL which is legally an ultralight which means no pilot rating is required to fly it. Propelled by 8 props, controlled with differential throttles and 4 elevons during forward flight with the wings providing lift
    https://x.com/DJSnM/status/1920722108759359549
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,424
    Eabhal said:

    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    viewcode said:
    Didn't they get like a £20bn bung last year? I guess KPMG and their ilk will have swallowed a lot of it...
    Yes, but I think that sum quoted was over several years, albeit somewhat frontloaded.

    My own Trust ended the last financial year with a £100 million overspend, and we are far from the worst in the country, indeed better than most comparable sized Trusts. We have been told that the workforce will shrink this year at all grades and areas. Most of the increased funding goes to GPs and community services, probably a wise decision.

    The problem is that emergency attendances and admissions are relentlessly up 10% or so year on year. It's clearly a core part of the hospital service, but our income for the extra work is capped, hence emergency services are running at a continuous loss.
    10% is just insane. Getting increasingly fed up with people who just say "demographics" ad infinitum. There's a lot more going on.
    Hm, looks like 3% per year between 2010-2020, then flat (page 7):

    https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7281/CBP-7281.pdf
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,376
    Eabhal said:

    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    viewcode said:
    Didn't they get like a £20bn bung last year? I guess KPMG and their ilk will have swallowed a lot of it...
    Yes, but I think that sum quoted was over several years, albeit somewhat frontloaded.

    My own Trust ended the last financial year with a £100 million overspend, and we are far from the worst in the country, indeed better than most comparable sized Trusts. We have been told that the workforce will shrink this year at all grades and areas. Most of the increased funding goes to GPs and community services, probably a wise decision.

    The problem is that emergency attendances and admissions are relentlessly up 10% or so year on year. It's clearly a core part of the hospital service, but our income for the extra work is capped, hence emergency services are running at a continuous loss.
    10% is just insane. Getting increasingly fed up with people who just say "demographics" ad infinitum. There's a lot more going on.
    Yes that does sound bonkers
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,717
    edited May 9

    Nigelb said:

    Tangentially, @ydoethur missed a trick.

    The new Pope has a degree in mathematics from Villanova University.

    This guy doesn’t just understand sin. He understands cos.

    https://x.com/deedydas/status/1920537165995397516

    I don't think Ydoethur did miss that trick.
    I'm just surprised the tweeter didn't mention the new Pope Knows arc.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,414
    RobD said:

    Eabhal said:

    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    viewcode said:
    Didn't they get like a £20bn bung last year? I guess KPMG and their ilk will have swallowed a lot of it...
    Yes, but I think that sum quoted was over several years, albeit somewhat frontloaded.

    My own Trust ended the last financial year with a £100 million overspend, and we are far from the worst in the country, indeed better than most comparable sized Trusts. We have been told that the workforce will shrink this year at all grades and areas. Most of the increased funding goes to GPs and community services, probably a wise decision.

    The problem is that emergency attendances and admissions are relentlessly up 10% or so year on year. It's clearly a core part of the hospital service, but our income for the extra work is capped, hence emergency services are running at a continuous loss.
    10% is just insane. Getting increasingly fed up with people who just say "demographics" ad infinitum. There's a lot more going on.
    Hm, looks like 3% per year between 2010-2020, then flat (page 7):

    https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7281/CBP-7281.pdf
    That's still a cumulative increase of 34%. Demographic shift contributes nowhere near that.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,424
    Eabhal said:

    RobD said:

    Eabhal said:

    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    viewcode said:
    Didn't they get like a £20bn bung last year? I guess KPMG and their ilk will have swallowed a lot of it...
    Yes, but I think that sum quoted was over several years, albeit somewhat frontloaded.

    My own Trust ended the last financial year with a £100 million overspend, and we are far from the worst in the country, indeed better than most comparable sized Trusts. We have been told that the workforce will shrink this year at all grades and areas. Most of the increased funding goes to GPs and community services, probably a wise decision.

    The problem is that emergency attendances and admissions are relentlessly up 10% or so year on year. It's clearly a core part of the hospital service, but our income for the extra work is capped, hence emergency services are running at a continuous loss.
    10% is just insane. Getting increasingly fed up with people who just say "demographics" ad infinitum. There's a lot more going on.
    Hm, looks like 3% per year between 2010-2020, then flat (page 7):

    https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7281/CBP-7281.pdf
    That's still a cumulative increase of 34%. Demographic shift contributes nowhere near that.
    Still, it’s nowhere near 10% per year. What would demographic shifts contribute?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,778

    Sam Stein
    @samstein
    ·
    1h
    If I understand the White House's current messaging it's that the border is completely under control unlike ever before in history, crime is dramatically down across the board, but we are also under such an invasion that we have to suspend habeas corpus?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,614
    viewcode said:
    About bloody time.

    The rest of the country has had a decade and a half of austerity. The NHS has had its budget increased annually in that time and never yet faced a cut. It is a black hole that swallows all funding and needs cutting down to size.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,414
    edited May 9
    RobD said:

    Eabhal said:

    RobD said:

    Eabhal said:

    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    viewcode said:
    Didn't they get like a £20bn bung last year? I guess KPMG and their ilk will have swallowed a lot of it...
    Yes, but I think that sum quoted was over several years, albeit somewhat frontloaded.

    My own Trust ended the last financial year with a £100 million overspend, and we are far from the worst in the country, indeed better than most comparable sized Trusts. We have been told that the workforce will shrink this year at all grades and areas. Most of the increased funding goes to GPs and community services, probably a wise decision.

    The problem is that emergency attendances and admissions are relentlessly up 10% or so year on year. It's clearly a core part of the hospital service, but our income for the extra work is capped, hence emergency services are running at a continuous loss.
    10% is just insane. Getting increasingly fed up with people who just say "demographics" ad infinitum. There's a lot more going on.
    Hm, looks like 3% per year between 2010-2020, then flat (page 7):

    https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7281/CBP-7281.pdf
    That's still a cumulative increase of 34%. Demographic shift contributes nowhere near that.
    Still, it’s nowhere near 10% per year. What would demographic shifts contribute?
    The OBR estimate that of the 3%, 0.6% is demographic in the long term.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,424
    edited May 9
    Eabhal said:

    RobD said:

    Eabhal said:

    RobD said:

    Eabhal said:

    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    viewcode said:
    Didn't they get like a £20bn bung last year? I guess KPMG and their ilk will have swallowed a lot of it...
    Yes, but I think that sum quoted was over several years, albeit somewhat frontloaded.

    My own Trust ended the last financial year with a £100 million overspend, and we are far from the worst in the country, indeed better than most comparable sized Trusts. We have been told that the workforce will shrink this year at all grades and areas. Most of the increased funding goes to GPs and community services, probably a wise decision.

    The problem is that emergency attendances and admissions are relentlessly up 10% or so year on year. It's clearly a core part of the hospital service, but our income for the extra work is capped, hence emergency services are running at a continuous loss.
    10% is just insane. Getting increasingly fed up with people who just say "demographics" ad infinitum. There's a lot more going on.
    Hm, looks like 3% per year between 2010-2020, then flat (page 7):

    https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7281/CBP-7281.pdf
    That's still a cumulative increase of 34%. Demographic shift contributes nowhere near that.
    Still, it’s nowhere near 10% per year. What would demographic shifts contribute?
    The OBR estimate that of the 3%, 0.6% is demographic in the long term.
    Not that I don’t believe you, but could you share the source? I’m actually interested to read how it was calculated.

    Would be interesting to understand what’s causing the rest. Hangover from Covid, people getting more and more unhealthy?

    Edit: can’t be Covid because the increase happened between 2010-2020.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,250

    viewcode said:
    About bloody time.

    The rest of the country has had a decade and a half of austerity. The NHS has had its budget increased annually in that time and never yet faced a cut. It is a black hole that swallows all funding and needs cutting down to size.
    The Trust my girlfriend works at has told her there isn’t the money to renew her contract (she’s a doctor). I am surprised considering how overworked she is and how often locum shifts are used.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 14,041
    edited May 9
    Eabhal said:

    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    viewcode said:
    Didn't they get like a £20bn bung last year? I guess KPMG and their ilk will have swallowed a lot of it...
    Yes, but I think that sum quoted was over several years, albeit somewhat frontloaded.

    My own Trust ended the last financial year with a £100 million overspend, and we are far from the worst in the country, indeed better than most comparable sized Trusts. We have been told that the workforce will shrink this year at all grades and areas. Most of the increased funding goes to GPs and community services, probably a wise decision.

    The problem is that emergency attendances and admissions are relentlessly up 10% or so year on year. It's clearly a core part of the hospital service, but our income for the extra work is capped, hence emergency services are running at a continuous loss.
    10% is just insane. Getting increasingly fed up with people who just say "demographics" ad infinitum. There's a lot more going on.
    Healthcare inflation has long run at a higher rate than regular inflation. This is, I guess, because we’re good at inventing new treatments, mainly new drugs. For a long time, we were also seeing steady increases in life expectancy as well, although that’s stalled more recently.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,060

    viewcode said:
    About bloody time.

    The rest of the country has had a decade and a half of austerity. The NHS has had its budget increased annually in that time and never yet faced a cut. It is a black hole that swallows all funding and needs cutting down to size.
    The Trust my girlfriend works at has told her there isn’t the money to renew her contract (she’s a doctor). I am surprised considering how overworked she is and how often locum shifts are used.
    It's always the frontline staff that get cut. Parade of bleeding stumps to ward off future cuts.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,376

    viewcode said:
    About bloody time.

    The rest of the country has had a decade and a half of austerity. The NHS has had its budget increased annually in that time and never yet faced a cut. It is a black hole that swallows all funding and needs cutting down to size.
    The Trust my girlfriend works at has told her there isn’t the money to renew her contract (she’s a doctor). I am surprised considering how overworked she is and how often locum shifts are used.
    Sounds like some odd budgeting going on tbh
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,614

    Eabhal said:

    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    viewcode said:
    Didn't they get like a £20bn bung last year? I guess KPMG and their ilk will have swallowed a lot of it...
    Yes, but I think that sum quoted was over several years, albeit somewhat frontloaded.

    My own Trust ended the last financial year with a £100 million overspend, and we are far from the worst in the country, indeed better than most comparable sized Trusts. We have been told that the workforce will shrink this year at all grades and areas. Most of the increased funding goes to GPs and community services, probably a wise decision.

    The problem is that emergency attendances and admissions are relentlessly up 10% or so year on year. It's clearly a core part of the hospital service, but our income for the extra work is capped, hence emergency services are running at a continuous loss.
    10% is just insane. Getting increasingly fed up with people who just say "demographics" ad infinitum. There's a lot more going on.
    Healthcare inflation has long run at a higher rate than regular inflation. This is, I guess, because we’re good at inventing new treatments, mainly new drugs. For a long time, we were also seeing steady increases in life expectancy as well, although that’s stalled more recently.
    Its also a tale of Sisyphus. We might invent medicines to try to cheat death but it doesn't matter how much effort you put into rolling that boulder up the hill, its going to roll back down again, for eternity.

    It is demographic change, but not only is our population growing but it is ageing too and cheating death with a medicine this year doesn't end disease, it means the person is going to return with even more ailments next year.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,821
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Tangentially, @ydoethur missed a trick.

    The new Pope has a degree in mathematics from Villanova University.

    This guy doesn’t just understand sin. He understands cos.

    https://x.com/deedydas/status/1920537165995397516

    I don't think Ydoethur did miss that trick.
    I'm just surprised the tweeter didn't mention the new Pope Knows arc.
    He's very Pi-us.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 11,069
    Suspect senior admin will still get large payrises and the job cuts will fall only on front line staff
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,118
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/34883274/southport-monster-attack-prison-guard/

    Southport fiend Axel Rudakubana hurled boiling water over prison guard in ‘terrifying’ attack putting victim in hospital
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,024

    Eabhal said:

    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    viewcode said:
    Didn't they get like a £20bn bung last year? I guess KPMG and their ilk will have swallowed a lot of it...
    Yes, but I think that sum quoted was over several years, albeit somewhat frontloaded.

    My own Trust ended the last financial year with a £100 million overspend, and we are far from the worst in the country, indeed better than most comparable sized Trusts. We have been told that the workforce will shrink this year at all grades and areas. Most of the increased funding goes to GPs and community services, probably a wise decision.

    The problem is that emergency attendances and admissions are relentlessly up 10% or so year on year. It's clearly a core part of the hospital service, but our income for the extra work is capped, hence emergency services are running at a continuous loss.
    10% is just insane. Getting increasingly fed up with people who just say "demographics" ad infinitum. There's a lot more going on.
    Healthcare inflation has long run at a higher rate than regular inflation. This is, I guess, because we’re good at inventing new treatments, mainly new drugs. For a long time, we were also seeing steady increases in life expectancy as well, although that’s stalled more recently.
    I was in a conversation about this yesterday. Similarly - very premature babies are now routinely kept alive when previously we wouldn't have been able to, at great expense. Sadly many of those babies go on to have very difficulto to meet needs - so the SEN units fill up and kids whose SEN is rather less severe, but still too severe formainstream education, cannot access them.
    I can think of no response to this except to nod sadly.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,414
    edited May 9
    RobD said:

    Eabhal said:

    RobD said:

    Eabhal said:

    RobD said:

    Eabhal said:

    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    viewcode said:
    Didn't they get like a £20bn bung last year? I guess KPMG and their ilk will have swallowed a lot of it...
    Yes, but I think that sum quoted was over several years, albeit somewhat frontloaded.

    My own Trust ended the last financial year with a £100 million overspend, and we are far from the worst in the country, indeed better than most comparable sized Trusts. We have been told that the workforce will shrink this year at all grades and areas. Most of the increased funding goes to GPs and community services, probably a wise decision.

    The problem is that emergency attendances and admissions are relentlessly up 10% or so year on year. It's clearly a core part of the hospital service, but our income for the extra work is capped, hence emergency services are running at a continuous loss.
    10% is just insane. Getting increasingly fed up with people who just say "demographics" ad infinitum. There's a lot more going on.
    Hm, looks like 3% per year between 2010-2020, then flat (page 7):

    https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7281/CBP-7281.pdf
    That's still a cumulative increase of 34%. Demographic shift contributes nowhere near that.
    Still, it’s nowhere near 10% per year. What would demographic shifts contribute?
    The OBR estimate that of the 3%, 0.6% is demographic in the long term.
    Not that I don’t believe you, but could you share the source? I’m actually interested to read how it was calculated.

    Would be interesting to understand what’s causing the rest. Hangover from Covid, people getting more and more unhealthy?

    Edit: can’t be Covid because the increase happened between 2010-2020.
    That's the long-term projection based on current trends:

    https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Fiscal-risks-and-sustainability-report-September-2024-1.pdf page 62

    But table 2.1 here looks at the historical data from 1995 - 2009, showing that demographic effects are relatively small: https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2013/06/a-projection-method-for-public-health-and-long-term-care-expenditures_g17a230b/5k44v53w5w47-en.pdf

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,424

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/34883274/southport-monster-attack-prison-guard/

    Southport fiend Axel Rudakubana hurled boiling water over prison guard in ‘terrifying’ attack putting victim in hospital

    Coming so soon after the incident in the kitchen? Security is prisons is clearly a joke.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,431
    edited May 9
    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    viewcode said:
    Didn't they get like a £20bn bung last year? I guess KPMG and their ilk will have swallowed a lot of it...
    Yes, but I think that sum quoted was over several years, albeit somewhat frontloaded.

    My own Trust ended the last financial year with a £100 million overspend, and we are far from the worst in the country, indeed better than most comparable sized Trusts. We have been told that the workforce will shrink this year at all grades and areas. Most of the increased funding goes to GPs and community services, probably a wise decision.

    The problem is that emergency attendances and admissions are relentlessly up 10% or so year on year. It's clearly a core part of the hospital service, but our income for the extra work is capped, hence emergency services are running at a continuous loss.
    We have invited to live here about 5-10 million people from cultures that are - often - stupider, shorter, and less healthy than ours. And the native Brits are already a pasty faced bunch of fat people who eat too much pizza

    These incomers bring their dependants who will be even less healthy. I see them waddling around Camden - I waddle next to them. The only difference between us is that I have paid several trillion quid into the NHS as tax, so at least I've earned my treatment, they have often paid zero, and they and their families get the same free care. even though they will always be a net fiscal negative. And they make enormous demands on a free health system

    Unsurprisingly, the NHS is now collapsing

    We have a choice as a society. Either we severely restrict migration AND start sending people home, and keep our beloved NHS as it is - free at the point of care - or we continue with mass immigration but we accept that the NHS will start picking and choosing who it cares for, and if you haven't contributed you get near zero care

    It's that basic. CHOOSE

    This is no slight on migrants. They make very understandable and perfectly moral human choices, and western European welfare states are incredibly attractive to people from poorer countries. It's just that western European welfare systems cannot cope with the strain of so many incomers, and if we continue along this road, they will implode
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,375
    @atrupar.com‬

    "What did they do?" -- Trump has no idea what he's signing and has to have it explained to him

    https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3lordcb4vw62t
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,735
    Nigelb said:

    ohnotnow said:

    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Chris said:

    I think it depends entirely whether any of the men are William Shatner.

    image

    I remember that episode! I watched it as a teenager and even way back then spotted how loaded its intended messages were.
    The only Star Trek that I have ever watched was the original series, most of it when it first was broadcast.

    It's a fairly transparent allegory of US liberal interventionism, and presents an optimistic world view of technological and social progress. Very much of its time.

    It should be redone by Putin as a revisionist series "The Klingons and their oppressors".
    There are numerous tales to be told of how Star Trek: The Original Series got to be the way it was, but basically it was an outer space version of Wagon Train crossed with Gene Roddenberry's obsessions (God Bad! Sex Good! Boobies Great!) and some good directors and writers. I won't bore you with the full gubbins.
    'The Starlost' is a quite fabulous "lost gem" from a few years later featuring some Star Trek people. There is a seed of an amazing sci-fi in it - but.... boy oh boy. The wikipedia page details just a tiny bit of the mess :

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Starlost

    image

    If someone could untangle the legal mess around it - I think there's a reboot goldmine to be had. Possibly.
    That's Harlan.

    .. Ellison broke with the project before the airing of its first episode..
    As wikipedia puts it on his page

    [he] was an American writer, known for his prolific and influential work in New Wave speculative fiction[4] and for his outspoken, combative personality.


    I don't know the detail behind that, but it definitely seems like a euphemism.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,424
    Eabhal said:

    RobD said:

    Eabhal said:

    RobD said:

    Eabhal said:

    RobD said:

    Eabhal said:

    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    viewcode said:
    Didn't they get like a £20bn bung last year? I guess KPMG and their ilk will have swallowed a lot of it...
    Yes, but I think that sum quoted was over several years, albeit somewhat frontloaded.

    My own Trust ended the last financial year with a £100 million overspend, and we are far from the worst in the country, indeed better than most comparable sized Trusts. We have been told that the workforce will shrink this year at all grades and areas. Most of the increased funding goes to GPs and community services, probably a wise decision.

    The problem is that emergency attendances and admissions are relentlessly up 10% or so year on year. It's clearly a core part of the hospital service, but our income for the extra work is capped, hence emergency services are running at a continuous loss.
    10% is just insane. Getting increasingly fed up with people who just say "demographics" ad infinitum. There's a lot more going on.
    Hm, looks like 3% per year between 2010-2020, then flat (page 7):

    https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7281/CBP-7281.pdf
    That's still a cumulative increase of 34%. Demographic shift contributes nowhere near that.
    Still, it’s nowhere near 10% per year. What would demographic shifts contribute?
    The OBR estimate that of the 3%, 0.6% is demographic in the long term.
    Not that I don’t believe you, but could you share the source? I’m actually interested to read how it was calculated.

    Would be interesting to understand what’s causing the rest. Hangover from Covid, people getting more and more unhealthy?

    Edit: can’t be Covid because the increase happened between 2010-2020.
    That's the long-term projection based on current trends:

    https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Fiscal-risks-and-sustainability-report-September-2024-1.pdf page 62

    But table 2.1 here looks at the historical data from 1995 - 2009, showing that demographic effects are relatively small: https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2013/06/a-projection-method-for-public-health-and-long-term-care-expenditures_g17a230b/5k44v53w5w47-en.pdf

    Thanks! I'll take a look. I wonder if there have been any studies into why emergency admission growth was running a couple times higher until the pandemic.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,414
    edited May 9

    Eabhal said:

    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    viewcode said:
    Didn't they get like a £20bn bung last year? I guess KPMG and their ilk will have swallowed a lot of it...
    Yes, but I think that sum quoted was over several years, albeit somewhat frontloaded.

    My own Trust ended the last financial year with a £100 million overspend, and we are far from the worst in the country, indeed better than most comparable sized Trusts. We have been told that the workforce will shrink this year at all grades and areas. Most of the increased funding goes to GPs and community services, probably a wise decision.

    The problem is that emergency attendances and admissions are relentlessly up 10% or so year on year. It's clearly a core part of the hospital service, but our income for the extra work is capped, hence emergency services are running at a continuous loss.
    10% is just insane. Getting increasingly fed up with people who just say "demographics" ad infinitum. There's a lot more going on.
    Healthcare inflation has long run at a higher rate than regular inflation. This is, I guess, because we’re good at inventing new treatments, mainly new drugs. For a long time, we were also seeing steady increases in life expectancy as well, although that’s stalled more recently.
    Its also a tale of Sisyphus. We might invent medicines to try to cheat death but it doesn't matter how much effort you put into rolling that boulder up the hill, its going to roll back down again, for eternity.

    It is demographic change, but not only is our population growing but it is ageing too and cheating death with a medicine this year doesn't end disease, it means the person is going to return with even more ailments next year.
    It's just not the case, sorry. I know we've argued about this before but demographics are only a small element of why health costs are going on. It's become a bit of a podcast meme - probably because it gives politicians an easy excuse.

    We're just in a doom loop of finding more and more ways to keep very unwell people alive, at the cost of not actually preventing them becoming unwell in the first place.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,735
    isam said:

    Easy mistake to make but, nonetheless…



    …..

    There was a sad lack of leaflets promoting 'insert candidate name' and how much they cared about 'insert local area' during the recent elections.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 11,069
    RobD said:

    Eabhal said:

    RobD said:

    Eabhal said:

    RobD said:

    Eabhal said:

    RobD said:

    Eabhal said:

    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    viewcode said:
    Didn't they get like a £20bn bung last year? I guess KPMG and their ilk will have swallowed a lot of it...
    Yes, but I think that sum quoted was over several years, albeit somewhat frontloaded.

    My own Trust ended the last financial year with a £100 million overspend, and we are far from the worst in the country, indeed better than most comparable sized Trusts. We have been told that the workforce will shrink this year at all grades and areas. Most of the increased funding goes to GPs and community services, probably a wise decision.

    The problem is that emergency attendances and admissions are relentlessly up 10% or so year on year. It's clearly a core part of the hospital service, but our income for the extra work is capped, hence emergency services are running at a continuous loss.
    10% is just insane. Getting increasingly fed up with people who just say "demographics" ad infinitum. There's a lot more going on.
    Hm, looks like 3% per year between 2010-2020, then flat (page 7):

    https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7281/CBP-7281.pdf
    That's still a cumulative increase of 34%. Demographic shift contributes nowhere near that.
    Still, it’s nowhere near 10% per year. What would demographic shifts contribute?
    The OBR estimate that of the 3%, 0.6% is demographic in the long term.
    Not that I don’t believe you, but could you share the source? I’m actually interested to read how it was calculated.

    Would be interesting to understand what’s causing the rest. Hangover from Covid, people getting more and more unhealthy?

    Edit: can’t be Covid because the increase happened between 2010-2020.
    That's the long-term projection based on current trends:

    https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Fiscal-risks-and-sustainability-report-September-2024-1.pdf page 62

    But table 2.1 here looks at the historical data from 1995 - 2009, showing that demographic effects are relatively small: https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2013/06/a-projection-method-for-public-health-and-long-term-care-expenditures_g17a230b/5k44v53w5w47-en.pdf

    Thanks! I'll take a look. I wonder if there have been any studies into why emergency admission growth was running a couple times higher until the pandemic.
    When you cant get a gp appointment for 3 weeks you end up going to a&e.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,778
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    viewcode said:
    Didn't they get like a £20bn bung last year? I guess KPMG and their ilk will have swallowed a lot of it...
    Yes, but I think that sum quoted was over several years, albeit somewhat frontloaded.

    My own Trust ended the last financial year with a £100 million overspend, and we are far from the worst in the country, indeed better than most comparable sized Trusts. We have been told that the workforce will shrink this year at all grades and areas. Most of the increased funding goes to GPs and community services, probably a wise decision.

    The problem is that emergency attendances and admissions are relentlessly up 10% or so year on year. It's clearly a core part of the hospital service, but our income for the extra work is capped, hence emergency services are running at a continuous loss.
    We have invited to live here about 5-10 million people from cultures that are - often - stupider, shorter, and less healthy than ours. And the native Brits are already a pasty faced bunch of fat people who eat too much pizza

    These incomers bring their dependants who will be even less healthy. I see them waddling around Camden - I waddle next to them. The only difference between us is that I have paid several trillion quid into the NHS as tax, so at least I've earned my treatment, they have often paid zero, and they and their families get the same free care. even though they will always be a net fiscal negative. And they make enormous demands on a free health system

    Unsurprisingly, the NHS is now collapsing

    We have a choice as a society. Either we severely restrict migration AND start sending people home, and keep our beloved NHS as it is - free at the point of care - or we continue with mass immigration but we accept that the NHS will start picking and choosing who it cares for, and if you haven't contributed you get near zero care

    It's that basic. CHOOSE

    This is no slight on migrants. They make very understandable and perfectly moral human choices, and western European welfare states are incredibly attractive to people from poorer countries. It's just that western European welfare systems cannot cope with the strain of so many incomers, and if we continue along this road, they will implode
    Yet the NHS is actually breaking under the strain of the boomer generation demographic now hitting 70s and 80s and needing a lot of care, chronic illnesses, endless ambulances for falls, bed blockers, keeping extremely frail old people alive for one more month, social care crisis etc etc.

    This generation is overwhelming white and 'native' for want of a better term surely?

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,778
    Cookie said:

    Eabhal said:

    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    viewcode said:
    Didn't they get like a £20bn bung last year? I guess KPMG and their ilk will have swallowed a lot of it...
    Yes, but I think that sum quoted was over several years, albeit somewhat frontloaded.

    My own Trust ended the last financial year with a £100 million overspend, and we are far from the worst in the country, indeed better than most comparable sized Trusts. We have been told that the workforce will shrink this year at all grades and areas. Most of the increased funding goes to GPs and community services, probably a wise decision.

    The problem is that emergency attendances and admissions are relentlessly up 10% or so year on year. It's clearly a core part of the hospital service, but our income for the extra work is capped, hence emergency services are running at a continuous loss.
    10% is just insane. Getting increasingly fed up with people who just say "demographics" ad infinitum. There's a lot more going on.
    Healthcare inflation has long run at a higher rate than regular inflation. This is, I guess, because we’re good at inventing new treatments, mainly new drugs. For a long time, we were also seeing steady increases in life expectancy as well, although that’s stalled more recently.
    I was in a conversation about this yesterday. Similarly - very premature babies are now routinely kept alive when previously we wouldn't have been able to, at great expense. Sadly many of those babies go on to have very difficulto to meet needs - so the SEN units fill up and kids whose SEN is rather less severe, but still too severe formainstream education, cannot access them.
    I can think of no response to this except to nod sadly.
    "Healthcare inflation has long run at a higher rate than regular inflation."

    Yep.

    Blair was told inflation rate + 4% needed for health to stand still.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,414
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    viewcode said:
    Didn't they get like a £20bn bung last year? I guess KPMG and their ilk will have swallowed a lot of it...
    Yes, but I think that sum quoted was over several years, albeit somewhat frontloaded.

    My own Trust ended the last financial year with a £100 million overspend, and we are far from the worst in the country, indeed better than most comparable sized Trusts. We have been told that the workforce will shrink this year at all grades and areas. Most of the increased funding goes to GPs and community services, probably a wise decision.

    The problem is that emergency attendances and admissions are relentlessly up 10% or so year on year. It's clearly a core part of the hospital service, but our income for the extra work is capped, hence emergency services are running at a continuous loss.
    We have invited to live here about 5-10 million people from cultures that are - often - stupider, shorter, and less healthy than ours. And the native Brits are already a pasty faced bunch of fat people who eat too much pizza

    These incomers bring their dependants who will be even less healthy. I see them waddling around Camden - I waddle next to them. The only difference between us is that I have paid several trillion quid into the NHS as tax, so at least I've earned my treatment, they have often paid zero, and they and their families get the same free care. even though they will always be a net fiscal negative. And they make enormous demands on a free health system

    Unsurprisingly, the NHS is now collapsing

    We have a choice as a society. Either we severely restrict migration AND start sending people home, and keep our beloved NHS as it is - free at the point of care - or we continue with mass immigration but we accept that the NHS will start picking and choosing who it cares for, and if you haven't contributed you get near zero care

    It's that basic. CHOOSE

    This is no slight on migrants. They make very understandable and perfectly moral human choices, and western European welfare states are incredibly attractive to people from poorer countries. It's just that western European welfare systems cannot cope with the strain of so many incomers, and if we continue along this road, they will implode
    Well, immigrants are part of the reason why demographics do not explain the massive increase in per capita spending, because they tend to not be old and not be babies. As such, the UK's demographic profile isn't bad like S.Korea and Japan.

    I think it's true that ethnic minorities have higher admissions rates, after accounting for a different age profile. But isn't that entirely explained by higher rates of poverty? Dr Foxy may know.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,614
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    viewcode said:
    Didn't they get like a £20bn bung last year? I guess KPMG and their ilk will have swallowed a lot of it...
    Yes, but I think that sum quoted was over several years, albeit somewhat frontloaded.

    My own Trust ended the last financial year with a £100 million overspend, and we are far from the worst in the country, indeed better than most comparable sized Trusts. We have been told that the workforce will shrink this year at all grades and areas. Most of the increased funding goes to GPs and community services, probably a wise decision.

    The problem is that emergency attendances and admissions are relentlessly up 10% or so year on year. It's clearly a core part of the hospital service, but our income for the extra work is capped, hence emergency services are running at a continuous loss.
    10% is just insane. Getting increasingly fed up with people who just say "demographics" ad infinitum. There's a lot more going on.
    Healthcare inflation has long run at a higher rate than regular inflation. This is, I guess, because we’re good at inventing new treatments, mainly new drugs. For a long time, we were also seeing steady increases in life expectancy as well, although that’s stalled more recently.
    Its also a tale of Sisyphus. We might invent medicines to try to cheat death but it doesn't matter how much effort you put into rolling that boulder up the hill, its going to roll back down again, for eternity.

    It is demographic change, but not only is our population growing but it is ageing too and cheating death with a medicine this year doesn't end disease, it means the person is going to return with even more ailments next year.
    It's just not the case, sorry. I know we've argued about this before but demographics are only a small element of why health costs are going on. It's just become a bit of a podcast meme - and more importantly, gives politicians an easy excuse.

    We're just in a doom loop of finding more and more ways to keep very unwell people alive, at the cost of not actually preventing them becoming unwell in the first place.
    I'm sorry but you are wrong.

    Once people get past the age of 75 then their health conditions increase dramatically as does the expense. Our over 75 population has increased from 3.9 million in 2000 to 5.4 million in 2020, a 1.5 million increase.

    That is not insignificant, however much you wish to pretend it is.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,926
    Some more deal on the non-tariff parts of the US UK deal:

    https://capx.co/how-good-is-the-us-uk-trade-deal
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,424
    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Eabhal said:

    RobD said:

    Eabhal said:

    RobD said:

    Eabhal said:

    RobD said:

    Eabhal said:

    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    viewcode said:
    Didn't they get like a £20bn bung last year? I guess KPMG and their ilk will have swallowed a lot of it...
    Yes, but I think that sum quoted was over several years, albeit somewhat frontloaded.

    My own Trust ended the last financial year with a £100 million overspend, and we are far from the worst in the country, indeed better than most comparable sized Trusts. We have been told that the workforce will shrink this year at all grades and areas. Most of the increased funding goes to GPs and community services, probably a wise decision.

    The problem is that emergency attendances and admissions are relentlessly up 10% or so year on year. It's clearly a core part of the hospital service, but our income for the extra work is capped, hence emergency services are running at a continuous loss.
    10% is just insane. Getting increasingly fed up with people who just say "demographics" ad infinitum. There's a lot more going on.
    Hm, looks like 3% per year between 2010-2020, then flat (page 7):

    https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7281/CBP-7281.pdf
    That's still a cumulative increase of 34%. Demographic shift contributes nowhere near that.
    Still, it’s nowhere near 10% per year. What would demographic shifts contribute?
    The OBR estimate that of the 3%, 0.6% is demographic in the long term.
    Not that I don’t believe you, but could you share the source? I’m actually interested to read how it was calculated.

    Would be interesting to understand what’s causing the rest. Hangover from Covid, people getting more and more unhealthy?

    Edit: can’t be Covid because the increase happened between 2010-2020.
    That's the long-term projection based on current trends:

    https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Fiscal-risks-and-sustainability-report-September-2024-1.pdf page 62

    But table 2.1 here looks at the historical data from 1995 - 2009, showing that demographic effects are relatively small: https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2013/06/a-projection-method-for-public-health-and-long-term-care-expenditures_g17a230b/5k44v53w5w47-en.pdf

    Thanks! I'll take a look. I wonder if there have been any studies into why emergency admission growth was running a couple times higher until the pandemic.
    When you cant get a gp appointment for 3 weeks you end up going to a&e.
    Huh, good point.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,405
    edited May 9
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The only comparator for this is the short but amazing rise of the SDP in the early 80s, right?

    Then Thatch got saved by Galtieri and they fell away. IIRC. It was a looooooong time ago

    Maybe Starmer can persuade Putin to invade Gibraltar, badly

    The SDP/Alliance polled 50% but the Tories were leading in some polls before the invasion of The Malvinas.
    Was it as high as 50%??! That's even more spectacular than I remember

    However there are major differences between Reform and the SDP, and the most important is the one that tells me this might be a new permanent change, not a fleeting weirdness like the Alliance: Reform are just part of a wider vibeshift to the populist right across the West - from Le Pen to Meloni, from Trump to the AfD to the Danish social democrats adopting hard right migration policies, and many other examples: some hopeful some depressing

    This is a secular change in mood across the western world, not a uniquely British blip
    In a fortnight where hard right leaders have lost national elections in Canada and Australia to the Liberals and Labor a bit out of date.

    The AfD also failed to win Germany's election in February either and are now opposition to the CDU and SPD government
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,414

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    viewcode said:
    Didn't they get like a £20bn bung last year? I guess KPMG and their ilk will have swallowed a lot of it...
    Yes, but I think that sum quoted was over several years, albeit somewhat frontloaded.

    My own Trust ended the last financial year with a £100 million overspend, and we are far from the worst in the country, indeed better than most comparable sized Trusts. We have been told that the workforce will shrink this year at all grades and areas. Most of the increased funding goes to GPs and community services, probably a wise decision.

    The problem is that emergency attendances and admissions are relentlessly up 10% or so year on year. It's clearly a core part of the hospital service, but our income for the extra work is capped, hence emergency services are running at a continuous loss.
    10% is just insane. Getting increasingly fed up with people who just say "demographics" ad infinitum. There's a lot more going on.
    Healthcare inflation has long run at a higher rate than regular inflation. This is, I guess, because we’re good at inventing new treatments, mainly new drugs. For a long time, we were also seeing steady increases in life expectancy as well, although that’s stalled more recently.
    Its also a tale of Sisyphus. We might invent medicines to try to cheat death but it doesn't matter how much effort you put into rolling that boulder up the hill, its going to roll back down again, for eternity.

    It is demographic change, but not only is our population growing but it is ageing too and cheating death with a medicine this year doesn't end disease, it means the person is going to return with even more ailments next year.
    It's just not the case, sorry. I know we've argued about this before but demographics are only a small element of why health costs are going on. It's just become a bit of a podcast meme - and more importantly, gives politicians an easy excuse.

    We're just in a doom loop of finding more and more ways to keep very unwell people alive, at the cost of not actually preventing them becoming unwell in the first place.
    I'm sorry but you are wrong.

    Once people get past the age of 75 then their health conditions increase dramatically as does the expense. Our over 75 population has increased from 3.9 million in 2000 to 5.4 million in 2020, a 1.5 million increase.

    That is not insignificant, however much you wish to pretend it is.
    Yes, but there are 70 million people in the UK. A 100% increase in obesity rates across that entire population over the last 30 years has a far bigger effect.

    And YODO. Most age-related expenses come in the last 12 months or so of life. So the number of people at that age simply does not matter - it's whether they are healthy or not.

    (I'm not pretending. I can spam links to the literature like a madman but that will never satisfy you.).
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,722

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    viewcode said:
    Didn't they get like a £20bn bung last year? I guess KPMG and their ilk will have swallowed a lot of it...
    Yes, but I think that sum quoted was over several years, albeit somewhat frontloaded.

    My own Trust ended the last financial year with a £100 million overspend, and we are far from the worst in the country, indeed better than most comparable sized Trusts. We have been told that the workforce will shrink this year at all grades and areas. Most of the increased funding goes to GPs and community services, probably a wise decision.

    The problem is that emergency attendances and admissions are relentlessly up 10% or so year on year. It's clearly a core part of the hospital service, but our income for the extra work is capped, hence emergency services are running at a continuous loss.
    10% is just insane. Getting increasingly fed up with people who just say "demographics" ad infinitum. There's a lot more going on.
    Healthcare inflation has long run at a higher rate than regular inflation. This is, I guess, because we’re good at inventing new treatments, mainly new drugs. For a long time, we were also seeing steady increases in life expectancy as well, although that’s stalled more recently.
    Its also a tale of Sisyphus. We might invent medicines to try to cheat death but it doesn't matter how much effort you put into rolling that boulder up the hill, its going to roll back down again, for eternity.

    It is demographic change, but not only is our population growing but it is ageing too and cheating death with a medicine this year doesn't end disease, it means the person is going to return with even more ailments next year.
    It's just not the case, sorry. I know we've argued about this before but demographics are only a small element of why health costs are going on. It's just become a bit of a podcast meme - and more importantly, gives politicians an easy excuse.

    We're just in a doom loop of finding more and more ways to keep very unwell people alive, at the cost of not actually preventing them becoming unwell in the first place.
    I'm sorry but you are wrong.

    Once people get past the age of 75 then their health conditions increase dramatically as does the expense. Our over 75 population has increased from 3.9 million in 2000 to 5.4 million in 2020, a 1.5 million increase.

    That is not insignificant, however much you wish to pretend it is.
    NHS spending person by age:

    10–19 £1,500–£2,000
    20–29 £1,500–£2,500
    30–39 £2,000–£3,000
    40–49 £3,000–£4,000
    50–59 £4,000–£5,000
    60–69 £6,000–£7,000
    70–79 £8,000–£10,000
    80–89 £11,000–£13,000
    90+ £13,000–£15,000
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,405
    Leon said:

    🚨 REFORM TAKES 10-POINT LEAD IN NEW POLL 🚨

    @BMGResearch
    survey for
    @theipaper
    shows:

    Reform 32%
    Labour 22%
    Tories 19%
    Lib Dems 13%
    Greens 9%

    BMG's Rob Struthers says: "Some polls make you do a double-take. This is one of them."



    We are witnessing something pretty extraordinary here. This is potentially a quiet revolution. A Very British Tipping Point

    Gives Reform a majority of 124 with FPTP on just under a third of the vote.

    At the moment it seems PR might be the only way to stop Farage becoming PM with an outright majority
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=N&CON=19&LAB=22&LIB=13&Reform=32&Green=9&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTReform=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2024base
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,431

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    viewcode said:
    Didn't they get like a £20bn bung last year? I guess KPMG and their ilk will have swallowed a lot of it...
    Yes, but I think that sum quoted was over several years, albeit somewhat frontloaded.

    My own Trust ended the last financial year with a £100 million overspend, and we are far from the worst in the country, indeed better than most comparable sized Trusts. We have been told that the workforce will shrink this year at all grades and areas. Most of the increased funding goes to GPs and community services, probably a wise decision.

    The problem is that emergency attendances and admissions are relentlessly up 10% or so year on year. It's clearly a core part of the hospital service, but our income for the extra work is capped, hence emergency services are running at a continuous loss.
    We have invited to live here about 5-10 million people from cultures that are - often - stupider, shorter, and less healthy than ours. And the native Brits are already a pasty faced bunch of fat people who eat too much pizza

    These incomers bring their dependants who will be even less healthy. I see them waddling around Camden - I waddle next to them. The only difference between us is that I have paid several trillion quid into the NHS as tax, so at least I've earned my treatment, they have often paid zero, and they and their families get the same free care. even though they will always be a net fiscal negative. And they make enormous demands on a free health system

    Unsurprisingly, the NHS is now collapsing

    We have a choice as a society. Either we severely restrict migration AND start sending people home, and keep our beloved NHS as it is - free at the point of care - or we continue with mass immigration but we accept that the NHS will start picking and choosing who it cares for, and if you haven't contributed you get near zero care

    It's that basic. CHOOSE

    This is no slight on migrants. They make very understandable and perfectly moral human choices, and western European welfare states are incredibly attractive to people from poorer countries. It's just that western European welfare systems cannot cope with the strain of so many incomers, and if we continue along this road, they will implode
    Yet the NHS is actually breaking under the strain of the boomer generation demographic now hitting 70s and 80s and needing a lot of care, chronic illnesses, endless ambulances for falls, bed blockers, keeping extremely frail old people alive for one more month, social care crisis etc etc.

    This generation is overwhelming white and 'native' for want of a better term surely?

    Oh for sure. That is also part of it. But inviting in one social care worker from Nigeria, who then brings five dependants - who will often be old and ill or young and demanding - is the Ponziest of Ponzi schemes. We have compounded the very real problems of an ageing society with the absurdity of enormous mass immigration from poorer countries which, in the end, actually makes things worse

    I have personally given up on the NHS. For years I've had all my dental care done privately in Thailand, and of late my physical care is also done there

    I don't know what the solution is. But I know what makes it much worse: mass immigration. So, stopping that immediately would at least be a braking mechanism, however painful the lurch as we come to an abrupt halt

  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,926
    rcs1000 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    viewcode said:
    Didn't they get like a £20bn bung last year? I guess KPMG and their ilk will have swallowed a lot of it...
    Yes, but I think that sum quoted was over several years, albeit somewhat frontloaded.

    My own Trust ended the last financial year with a £100 million overspend, and we are far from the worst in the country, indeed better than most comparable sized Trusts. We have been told that the workforce will shrink this year at all grades and areas. Most of the increased funding goes to GPs and community services, probably a wise decision.

    The problem is that emergency attendances and admissions are relentlessly up 10% or so year on year. It's clearly a core part of the hospital service, but our income for the extra work is capped, hence emergency services are running at a continuous loss.
    10% is just insane. Getting increasingly fed up with people who just say "demographics" ad infinitum. There's a lot more going on.
    Healthcare inflation has long run at a higher rate than regular inflation. This is, I guess, because we’re good at inventing new treatments, mainly new drugs. For a long time, we were also seeing steady increases in life expectancy as well, although that’s stalled more recently.
    Its also a tale of Sisyphus. We might invent medicines to try to cheat death but it doesn't matter how much effort you put into rolling that boulder up the hill, its going to roll back down again, for eternity.

    It is demographic change, but not only is our population growing but it is ageing too and cheating death with a medicine this year doesn't end disease, it means the person is going to return with even more ailments next year.
    It's just not the case, sorry. I know we've argued about this before but demographics are only a small element of why health costs are going on. It's just become a bit of a podcast meme - and more importantly, gives politicians an easy excuse.

    We're just in a doom loop of finding more and more ways to keep very unwell people alive, at the cost of not actually preventing them becoming unwell in the first place.
    I'm sorry but you are wrong.

    Once people get past the age of 75 then their health conditions increase dramatically as does the expense. Our over 75 population has increased from 3.9 million in 2000 to 5.4 million in 2020, a 1.5 million increase.

    That is not insignificant, however much you wish to pretend it is.
    NHS spending person by age:

    10–19 £1,500–£2,000
    20–29 £1,500–£2,500
    30–39 £2,000–£3,000
    40–49 £3,000–£4,000
    50–59 £4,000–£5,000
    60–69 £6,000–£7,000
    70–79 £8,000–£10,000
    80–89 £11,000–£13,000
    90+ £13,000–£15,000
    That's precipitous a slope than I would have thought.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,722
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    viewcode said:
    Didn't they get like a £20bn bung last year? I guess KPMG and their ilk will have swallowed a lot of it...
    Yes, but I think that sum quoted was over several years, albeit somewhat frontloaded.

    My own Trust ended the last financial year with a £100 million overspend, and we are far from the worst in the country, indeed better than most comparable sized Trusts. We have been told that the workforce will shrink this year at all grades and areas. Most of the increased funding goes to GPs and community services, probably a wise decision.

    The problem is that emergency attendances and admissions are relentlessly up 10% or so year on year. It's clearly a core part of the hospital service, but our income for the extra work is capped, hence emergency services are running at a continuous loss.
    10% is just insane. Getting increasingly fed up with people who just say "demographics" ad infinitum. There's a lot more going on.
    Healthcare inflation has long run at a higher rate than regular inflation. This is, I guess, because we’re good at inventing new treatments, mainly new drugs. For a long time, we were also seeing steady increases in life expectancy as well, although that’s stalled more recently.
    Its also a tale of Sisyphus. We might invent medicines to try to cheat death but it doesn't matter how much effort you put into rolling that boulder up the hill, its going to roll back down again, for eternity.

    It is demographic change, but not only is our population growing but it is ageing too and cheating death with a medicine this year doesn't end disease, it means the person is going to return with even more ailments next year.
    It's just not the case, sorry. I know we've argued about this before but demographics are only a small element of why health costs are going on. It's just become a bit of a podcast meme - and more importantly, gives politicians an easy excuse.

    We're just in a doom loop of finding more and more ways to keep very unwell people alive, at the cost of not actually preventing them becoming unwell in the first place.
    I'm sorry but you are wrong.

    Once people get past the age of 75 then their health conditions increase dramatically as does the expense. Our over 75 population has increased from 3.9 million in 2000 to 5.4 million in 2020, a 1.5 million increase.

    That is not insignificant, however much you wish to pretend it is.
    Yes, but there are 70 million people in the UK. A 100% increase in obesity rates across that entire population over the last 30 years has a far bigger effect.

    And YODO. Most age-related expenses come in the last 12 months or so of life. So the number of people at that age simply does not matter - it's whether they are healthy or not.

    (I'm not pretending. I can spam links to the literature like a madman but that will never satisfy you.).
    Very large parts of the NHS drug budget are for managing chronic conditions, and simply grow with age.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,405
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    viewcode said:
    Didn't they get like a £20bn bung last year? I guess KPMG and their ilk will have swallowed a lot of it...
    Yes, but I think that sum quoted was over several years, albeit somewhat frontloaded.

    My own Trust ended the last financial year with a £100 million overspend, and we are far from the worst in the country, indeed better than most comparable sized Trusts. We have been told that the workforce will shrink this year at all grades and areas. Most of the increased funding goes to GPs and community services, probably a wise decision.

    The problem is that emergency attendances and admissions are relentlessly up 10% or so year on year. It's clearly a core part of the hospital service, but our income for the extra work is capped, hence emergency services are running at a continuous loss.
    We have invited to live here about 5-10 million people from cultures that are - often - stupider, shorter, and less healthy than ours. And the native Brits are already a pasty faced bunch of fat people who eat too much pizza

    These incomers bring their dependants who will be even less healthy. I see them waddling around Camden - I waddle next to them. The only difference between us is that I have paid several trillion quid into the NHS as tax, so at least I've earned my treatment, they have often paid zero, and they and their families get the same free care. even though they will always be a net fiscal negative. And they make enormous demands on a free health system

    Unsurprisingly, the NHS is now collapsing

    We have a choice as a society. Either we severely restrict migration AND start sending people home, and keep our beloved NHS as it is - free at the point of care - or we continue with mass immigration but we accept that the NHS will start picking and choosing who it cares for, and if you haven't contributed you get near zero care

    It's that basic. CHOOSE

    This is no slight on migrants. They make very understandable and perfectly moral human choices, and western European welfare states are incredibly attractive to people from poorer countries. It's just that western European welfare systems cannot cope with the strain of so many incomers, and if we continue along this road, they will implode
    Yet the NHS is actually breaking under the strain of the boomer generation demographic now hitting 70s and 80s and needing a lot of care, chronic illnesses, endless ambulances for falls, bed blockers, keeping extremely frail old people alive for one more month, social care crisis etc etc.

    This generation is overwhelming white and 'native' for want of a better term surely?

    Oh for sure. That is also part of it. But inviting in one social care worker from Nigeria, who then brings five dependants - who will often be old and ill or young and demanding - is the Ponziest of Ponzi schemes. We have compounded the very real problems of an ageing society with the absurdity of enormous mass immigration from poorer countries which, in the end, actually makes things worse

    I have personally given up on the NHS. For years I've had all my dental care done privately in Thailand, and of late my physical care is also done there

    I don't know what the solution is. But I know what makes it much worse: mass immigration. So, stopping that immediately would at least be a braking mechanism, however painful the lurch as we come to an abrupt halt

    Control immigration and use social insurance not income tax to fund healthcare like most OECD nations and require the top 10% of earners to have private health insurance like Australia
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,975
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    viewcode said:
    Didn't they get like a £20bn bung last year? I guess KPMG and their ilk will have swallowed a lot of it...
    Yes, but I think that sum quoted was over several years, albeit somewhat frontloaded.

    My own Trust ended the last financial year with a £100 million overspend, and we are far from the worst in the country, indeed better than most comparable sized Trusts. We have been told that the workforce will shrink this year at all grades and areas. Most of the increased funding goes to GPs and community services, probably a wise decision.

    The problem is that emergency attendances and admissions are relentlessly up 10% or so year on year. It's clearly a core part of the hospital service, but our income for the extra work is capped, hence emergency services are running at a continuous loss.
    We have invited to live here about 5-10 million people from cultures that are - often - stupider, shorter, and less healthy than ours. And the native Brits are already a pasty faced bunch of fat people who eat too much pizza

    These incomers bring their dependants who will be even less healthy. I see them waddling around Camden - I waddle next to them. The only difference between us is that I have paid several trillion quid into the NHS as tax, so at least I've earned my treatment, they have often paid zero, and they and their families get the same free care. even though they will always be a net fiscal negative. And they make enormous demands on a free health system

    Unsurprisingly, the NHS is now collapsing

    We have a choice as a society. Either we severely restrict migration AND start sending people home, and keep our beloved NHS as it is - free at the point of care - or we continue with mass immigration but we accept that the NHS will start picking and choosing who it cares for, and if you haven't contributed you get near zero care

    It's that basic. CHOOSE

    This is no slight on migrants. They make very understandable and perfectly moral human choices, and western European welfare states are incredibly attractive to people from poorer countries. It's just that western European welfare systems cannot cope with the strain of so many incomers, and if we continue along this road, they will implode
    The could help themselves a bit (the NHS, that is) by not admitting elderly dementia patients for 11 days when they come in for an x-ray. Using up a bed and actively harming the patient at the same time.

    OK, we don't want more scandals, but more procedures to follow don't seem to stop them.

    We definitely aren't making best use of what facilities we do have.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,447
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    ohnotnow said:

    viewcode said:
    Didn't they get like a £20bn bung last year? I guess KPMG and their ilk will have swallowed a lot of it...
    Yes, but I think that sum quoted was over several years, albeit somewhat frontloaded.

    My own Trust ended the last financial year with a £100 million overspend, and we are far from the worst in the country, indeed better than most comparable sized Trusts. We have been told that the workforce will shrink this year at all grades and areas. Most of the increased funding goes to GPs and community services, probably a wise decision.

    The problem is that emergency attendances and admissions are relentlessly up 10% or so year on year. It's clearly a core part of the hospital service, but our income for the extra work is capped, hence emergency services are running at a continuous loss.
    We have invited to live here about 5-10 million people from cultures that are - often - stupider, shorter, and less healthy than ours. And the native Brits are already a pasty faced bunch of fat people who eat too much pizza

    These incomers bring their dependants who will be even less healthy. I see them waddling around Camden - I waddle next to them. The only difference between us is that I have paid several trillion quid into the NHS as tax, so at least I've earned my treatment, they have often paid zero, and they and their families get the same free care. even though they will always be a net fiscal negative. And they make enormous demands on a free health system

    Unsurprisingly, the NHS is now collapsing

    We have a choice as a society. Either we severely restrict migration AND start sending people home, and keep our beloved NHS as it is - free at the point of care - or we continue with mass immigration but we accept that the NHS will start picking and choosing who it cares for, and if you haven't contributed you get near zero care

    It's that basic. CHOOSE

    This is no slight on migrants. They make very understandable and perfectly moral human choices, and western European welfare states are incredibly attractive to people from poorer countries. It's just that western European welfare systems cannot cope with the strain of so many incomers, and if we continue along this road, they will implode
    Yet the NHS is actually breaking under the strain of the boomer generation demographic now hitting 70s and 80s and needing a lot of care, chronic illnesses, endless ambulances for falls, bed blockers, keeping extremely frail old people alive for one more month, social care crisis etc etc.

    This generation is overwhelming white and 'native' for want of a better term surely?

    Oh for sure. That is also part of it. But inviting in one social care worker from Nigeria, who then brings five dependants - who will often be old and ill or young and demanding - is the Ponziest of Ponzi schemes. We have compounded the very real problems of an ageing society with the absurdity of enormous mass immigration from poorer countries which, in the end, actually makes things worse

    I have personally given up on the NHS. For years I've had all my dental care done privately in Thailand, and of late my physical care is also done there

    I don't know what the solution is. But I know what makes it much worse: mass immigration. So, stopping that immediately would at least be a braking mechanism, however painful the lurch as we come to an abrupt halt

    You do write a load of ignorant bollocks, don't you?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,735
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    🚨 REFORM TAKES 10-POINT LEAD IN NEW POLL 🚨

    @BMGResearch
    survey for
    @theipaper
    shows:

    Reform 32%
    Labour 22%
    Tories 19%
    Lib Dems 13%
    Greens 9%

    BMG's Rob Struthers says: "Some polls make you do a double-take. This is one of them."



    We are witnessing something pretty extraordinary here. This is potentially a quiet revolution. A Very British Tipping Point

    Gives Reform a majority of 124 with FPTP on just under a third of the vote.

    At the moment it seems PR might be the only way to stop Farage becoming PM with an outright majority
    PR for parliamentary elections is a Reform UK policy (after a referendum on it).

    Or perhaps it used to be given the potential advantage FPTP might offer them...
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