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Your regular reminder that betting markets are often laughably wrong – politicalbetting.com

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  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,060
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    That's harsh but it's fair in two respects. He does lack charisma and he's a manager not a visionary. However a charismatic persona and a grand vision are imo overrated in politics compared to competence and good intentions. I'd always take the latter. And it's what we need. We're a free and prosperous country which could be better in many respects, not a broken shithole of a place.
    I agree on that. Britain is a lovely place to be on a day like this.

    I think the doom and gloom is heavily overdone by those plastic patriots determined to talk down the country.
    I've noticed a tendency among the kind of people who like to complain about misinformation to stubbornly cling to an idea of the way things are that is based purely on the way they would like things to be, or the way they imagine things to be, or even the way they remember that things used to be. They are impervious to anything that contradicts this, even if it is meticulously factual and supported by evidence from sources that they would normally regard as authoritative.
    Very true. The shoplifting argument was vivid evidence of this

    The blinkered centrist Dads insisting it's "always been like this", "I worked in retail a decade ago, nothing has changed"

    This despite PBers offering personal lived experience

    Even when we showed the Centrist Dads the actual hard evidence - a ten fold increase in shoplifting in ten years, according to the Economist - they then claimed they'd always accepted this, or they pretended that it was some statistical anomaly
    Though there is a facile enjoyment in turning the ghastly phrases of the woke against them, I can't get on board with using 'lived experience', even in semi-jest.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,414
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    That's harsh but it's fair in two respects. He does lack charisma and he's a manager not a visionary. However a charismatic persona and a grand vision are imo overrated in politics compared to competence and good intentions. I'd always take the latter. And it's what we need. We're a free and prosperous country which could be better in many respects, not a broken shithole of a place.
    I agree on that. Britain is a lovely place to be on a day like this.

    I think the doom and gloom is heavily overdone by those plastic patriots determined to talk down the country.
    I've noticed a tendency among the kind of people who like to complain about misinformation to stubbornly cling to an idea of the way things are that is based purely on the way they would like things to be, or the way they imagine things to be, or even the way they remember that things used to be. They are impervious to anything that contradicts this, even if it is meticulously factual and supported by evidence from sources that they would normally regard as authoritative.
    Very true. The shoplifting argument was vivid evidence of this

    The blinkered centrist Dads insisting it's "always been like this", "I worked in retail a decade ago, nothing has changed"

    This despite PBers offering personal lived experience

    Even when we showed the Centrist Dads the actual hard evidence - a ten fold increase in shoplifting in ten years, according to the Economist - they then claimed they'd always accepted this, or they pretended that it was some statistical anomaly
    Lived experience v lived experience.

    You mentioned bike thefts earlier - that's another thing that's being going on forever, the police rarely do anything, yet has dropped off quite a bit according to the crime survey.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,454
    TimS said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Any guesses who reportedly just said this?

    “You have to understand that we won a massive majority and we have absolute, ultimate control.”

    Palpatine?
    The new Reform UK leader of Kent council.

    https://www.kentonline.co.uk/kent/news/new-kcc-reform-uk-leader-reveals-plan-for-council-324062/
    'She said: “You have to understand that we won a massive majority and we have absolute, ultimate control.”
    Mrs Kemkaran vowed to remove the Ukraine flag from the chamber, open the council’s books to auditors and review working practices across the authority.
    Later she emerged and said: “This is my first day in a brand new job and you wouldn’t expect me to have all the answers.

    “We are going to get the auditors to come in and take a leaf out of Elon Musk’s book and appoint some sort of DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) to go through everything in detail and find out where the money is being spent and whether we can make any changes and make life better for the residents.”

    The new KCC leader then suggests her Reform administration will lead Kent in a similar way to Trump is leading the US'
    She’s going to be disappointed when she discovers it’s mainly spent on social care for elderly reform voters
    The whole article is both depressing (because it seems to confirm the worst assumptions about Reform in office) and also encouraging (because it seems to confirm the worst assumptions about Reform in office).

    Does she really think they got voted into the county council by people who share JD Vance’s views on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Elon Musk’s views on slashing public spending? Maybe she does. But it does look like a case of spotting that voters like some aspects of the MAGA playbook and assuming they like the whole package.
    Well the MAGA advisors to RefUK have a pretty tin ear when it comes to Britain in general. The flag ban is straight out of the MAGA play book, but just looks silly in the cold light of day.
    While I know Leon gets wildly excited by minor local elections and odd little polls, the truth is that RefUK is an AstroTurf party backed by foreign money, and that is unlikely to get Farage anywhere close to national power- even if the fash curious media want it to be so.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,747
    edited May 9

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    Question for the panel. On current form the 2029 election will be mega on the need for tactical voting. Is there a fairly simple formula covering most seats in England (S and W is too hard for me to think about) which guides as to how to vote tactically against Reform, for people who don't have a PhD in psephology?

    Eg for starters:
    In all seats where LDs are first or second, vote LD
    In all seats where Labour is first vote Labour
    In all seats where Tory is first and LD not second, just guess at random

    Would that be enough?

    No, in the latter scenario like my seat where Tories are first and Reform were second at the GE you would have to vote Tory or get a Reform MP otherwise
    I believe you, but which constituency is that?
    I was trying to do some analysis of that sort of constituency and you'll be interested that the Perplexity AI told me:
    "There is no evidence from the official results or analyses that Reform UK came second to the Conservatives in any constituency where the Conservatives won"
    Never use AI to help you with anything to do with elections, is the lesson to be learnt from this.

    Castle Point is another example, along with Brentwood.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,398
    edited May 9
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:



    I’ll still be shopping at Tesco, going swimming sometimes, nibbling nuts in the afternoon, drinking red wine from a sherry glass, I’ll still be doing these same things, but I’ll be doing them in a world that has changed.

    This is faintly tragic, and also ever so slightly provincial, and non-U. But, then again, you are a retired accountant.

    I agree the post WWII world is now over. VE Day 80 didn't have the spark it should, and it's just moving into history now.
    That was my point - and more specifically 'feeling' it as opposed to understanding it in the abstract.

    Always a point to my contributions. I'm never just prattling away for the sake of it.
    I now have a weird image in my head of a not terribly old, but fading fast, retired accountant, with his slippers on, and on a reclining SCS leather armchair, sipping some cheap red plonk out of a sherry glass, whilst watching re-runs of Poirot and a Stennah Stairlift brochure on his lap.
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does the centre-left have any explanations for why Ref is doing so well atm, (other than they're a bunch of thickos, bigots, etc)?

    Yes.
    They are offering attractive yet simplistic and unworkable solutions at a time of economic difficulty.
    As a non-lefty right of centre one time One Nation Tory who voted Remain (and genuinely loathes Farage), I think I have come to a conclusion as to why some vote Reform. It is simply that they are pissed off. Pissed off with the woke rachet, where they perceive that greater credence is given to immigrants, where statues of historic figures are torn down and those responsible are not prosecuted, where one might be cancelled for stating something that someone else decides is not the modern perspective, where policemen will arrest you for the mildest of "crimes", or perhaps for defending your own property, but real thugs thieves and burglars seem to get off scot-free, because the police claim they do not "have the resources". These are the types of reasons. Mainstream politician need to address them.
    The problem with tackling those "issues" is made more difficult because they are right wing Social Media urban myths. The truth is too boring for the click bait circuit.
    You think it’s a social media urban myth that the police aren’t bothering to investigate phone theft and bike theft and car theft? And shoplifting?
    The government has now said the police must investigate thefts under £200
    This government says a lot and does less than zero

    Remember SMASH THE GANGS

    It's so risible it's mortifying. I notice Sir Beer Korma has largely stopped saying "we're going to SMASH THE GANGS" presumably because everyone would laugh at him with scornful contempt
    Well I suppose it has to ensure it has enough prison places for senders of abusive tweets and Koran burners before jailing shoplifters and gang members
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/05/08/man-who-burned-koran-faces-charges-for-harassing-islam/
    But remember we don't have a blasphemy law protecting Islam... you just get arrested and prosecuted and go on trial if you burn a Koran. It's completely different
    He has been charged under the Public Order Act for causing 'anxiety, harassment and distress' to Muslims in public.

    In which case can we monarchists get the police to arrest Smith and his Republic 'Not My King' placard wavers as they are causing us and no doubt the King 'anxiety, harassment and distress' when protesting in public too?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,429
    edited May 9

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    That's harsh but it's fair in two respects. He does lack charisma and he's a manager not a visionary. However a charismatic persona and a grand vision are imo overrated in politics compared to competence and good intentions. I'd always take the latter. And it's what we need. We're a free and prosperous country which could be better in many respects, not a broken shithole of a place.
    I agree on that. Britain is a lovely place to be on a day like this.

    I think the doom and gloom is heavily overdone by those plastic patriots determined to talk down the country.
    I've noticed a tendency among the kind of people who like to complain about misinformation to stubbornly cling to an idea of the way things are that is based purely on the way they would like things to be, or the way they imagine things to be, or even the way they remember that things used to be. They are impervious to anything that contradicts this, even if it is meticulously factual and supported by evidence from sources that they would normally regard as authoritative.
    Very true. The shoplifting argument was vivid evidence of this

    The blinkered centrist Dads insisting it's "always been like this", "I worked in retail a decade ago, nothing has changed"

    This despite PBers offering personal lived experience

    Even when we showed the Centrist Dads the actual hard evidence - a ten fold increase in shoplifting in ten years, according to the Economist - they then claimed they'd always accepted this, or they pretended that it was some statistical anomaly
    Though there is a facile enjoyment in turning the ghastly phrases of the woke against them, I can't get on board with using 'lived experience', even in semi-jest.
    I am in two minds. I despise anything and everything to do with Wokeness and the Woke (I'm sorry if this comes as a shock), however I believe the phrase "lived experience" is actually useful, and captures something particular which is not quite captured by the simple word "experience"
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,024
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    That's harsh but it's fair in two respects. He does lack charisma and he's a manager not a visionary. However a charismatic persona and a grand vision are imo overrated in politics compared to competence and good intentions. I'd always take the latter. And it's what we need. We're a free and prosperous country which could be better in many respects, not a broken shithole of a place.
    I agree on that. Britain is a lovely place to be on a day like this.

    I think the doom and gloom is heavily overdone by those plastic patriots determined to talk down the country.
    I presume you are referring to me

    If so, what a load of bollocks

    It's not some rightwing social media myth that British incomes have stagnated for almost two decades

    It's not some made up Nazi nonsense that we have endured huge, unwanted immigration: fact is, we have, and no one voted for it, and people are justifiably angry about this

    It's not some fascist agit-prop that the public realm - what it looks like, how it feels, is in unpleasant decline. We've had this debate. Shoplifting has risen ten fold in ten years

    That's why Reform is on 33%, Labour are on 20% and the Tories on 16%. Voters are extremely pissed off, and for good reason

    So shove your "plastic patriot" jibes up your ludicrous butt-hole
    Foxy didn't mean you. He meant those people on the right who make a big deal of loving their country whilst always moaning about taxes and immigration.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,510

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:



    I’ll still be shopping at Tesco, going swimming sometimes, nibbling nuts in the afternoon, drinking red wine from a sherry glass, I’ll still be doing these same things, but I’ll be doing them in a world that has changed.

    This is faintly tragic, and also ever so slightly provincial, and non-U. But, then again, you are a retired accountant.

    I agree the post WWII world is now over. VE Day 80 didn't have the spark it should, and it's just moving into history now.
    That was my point - and more specifically 'feeling' it as opposed to understanding it in the abstract.

    Always a point to my contributions. I'm never just prattling away for the sake of it.
    I now have a weird image in my head of a not terribly old, but fading fast, retired accountant, with his slippers on, and on a reclining SCS leather armchair, sipping some cheap red plonk out of a sherry glass, whilst watching re-runs of Poirot and a Stennah Stairlift brochure on his lap.
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does the centre-left have any explanations for why Ref is doing so well atm, (other than they're a bunch of thickos, bigots, etc)?

    Yes.
    They are offering attractive yet simplistic and unworkable solutions at a time of economic difficulty.
    As a non-lefty right of centre one time One Nation Tory who voted Remain (and genuinely loathes Farage), I think I have come to a conclusion as to why some vote Reform. It is simply that they are pissed off. Pissed off with the woke rachet, where they perceive that greater credence is given to immigrants, where statues of historic figures are torn down and those responsible are not prosecuted, where one might be cancelled for stating something that someone else decides is not the modern perspective, where policemen will arrest you for the mildest of "crimes", or perhaps for defending your own property, but real thugs thieves and burglars seem to get off scot-free, because the police claim they do not "have the resources". These are the types of reasons. Mainstream politician need to address them.
    The problem with tackling those "issues" is made more difficult because they are right wing Social Media urban myths. The truth is too boring for the click bait circuit.
    You think it’s a social media urban myth that the police aren’t bothering to investigate phone theft and bike theft and car theft? And shoplifting?
    I agree those are real issues, but the rest are myths.

    What statue has been pulled down and those responsible not prosecuted for example?
    The people who pulled down the Colston statue were 'prosecuted' but the trial was allowed to be turned into a farce.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-59727161
    So they were certainly prosecuted, and had due process.

    What statue was pulled down without prosecution?
    The verdict not going the way you wanted means it wasn’t a proper trial is very much the Reform vibe (that word again).
    Sounds like an EU referendum
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,857
    edited May 9
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:



    I’ll still be shopping at Tesco, going swimming sometimes, nibbling nuts in the afternoon, drinking red wine from a sherry glass, I’ll still be doing these same things, but I’ll be doing them in a world that has changed.

    This is faintly tragic, and also ever so slightly provincial, and non-U. But, then again, you are a retired accountant.

    I agree the post WWII world is now over. VE Day 80 didn't have the spark it should, and it's just moving into history now.
    That was my point - and more specifically 'feeling' it as opposed to understanding it in the abstract.

    Always a point to my contributions. I'm never just prattling away for the sake of it.
    I now have a weird image in my head of a not terribly old, but fading fast, retired accountant, with his slippers on, and on a reclining SCS leather armchair, sipping some cheap red plonk out of a sherry glass, whilst watching re-runs of Poirot and a Stennah Stairlift brochure on his lap.
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does the centre-left have any explanations for why Ref is doing so well atm, (other than they're a bunch of thickos, bigots, etc)?

    Yes.
    They are offering attractive yet simplistic and unworkable solutions at a time of economic difficulty.
    As a non-lefty right of centre one time One Nation Tory who voted Remain (and genuinely loathes Farage), I think I have come to a conclusion as to why some vote Reform. It is simply that they are pissed off. Pissed off with the woke rachet, where they perceive that greater credence is given to immigrants, where statues of historic figures are torn down and those responsible are not prosecuted, where one might be cancelled for stating something that someone else decides is not the modern perspective, where policemen will arrest you for the mildest of "crimes", or perhaps for defending your own property, but real thugs thieves and burglars seem to get off scot-free, because the police claim they do not "have the resources". These are the types of reasons. Mainstream politician need to address them.
    The problem with tackling those "issues" is made more difficult because they are right wing Social Media urban myths. The truth is too boring for the click bait circuit.
    You think it’s a social media urban myth that the police aren’t bothering to investigate phone theft and bike theft and car theft? And shoplifting?
    The government has now said the police must investigate thefts under £200
    This government says a lot and does less than zero

    Remember SMASH THE GANGS

    It's so risible it's mortifying. I notice Sir Beer Korma has largely stopped saying "we're going to SMASH THE GANGS" presumably because everyone would laugh at him with scornful contempt
    Well I suppose it has to ensure it has enough prison places for senders of abusive tweets and Koran burners before jailing shoplifters and gang members
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/05/08/man-who-burned-koran-faces-charges-for-harassing-islam/
    But remember we don't have a blasphemy law protecting Islam... you just get arrested and prosecuted and go on trial if you burn a Koran. It's completely different
    He has been charged under the Public Order Act for causing 'anxiety and distress' to Muslims in public.

    In which case can we monarchists get the police to arrest Smith and his Republic 'Not My King' placard wavers as they are causing us and no doubt the King 'anxiety and distress' when protesting in public too?
    Republicans are arrested for planning to say not my King

    Police arrested the leader of anti-monarchy group Republic and 51 others at King Charles's coronation on Saturday, saying their duty to prevent disruption outweighed the right to protest.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/police-arrest-anti-monarchy-protesters-ahead-king-charles-coronation-2023-05-06/
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,747
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    That's harsh but it's fair in two respects. He does lack charisma and he's a manager not a visionary. However a charismatic persona and a grand vision are imo overrated in politics compared to competence and good intentions. I'd always take the latter. And it's what we need. We're a free and prosperous country which could be better in many respects, not a broken shithole of a place.
    I agree on that. Britain is a lovely place to be on a day like this.

    I think the doom and gloom is heavily overdone by those plastic patriots determined to talk down the country.
    I've noticed a tendency among the kind of people who like to complain about misinformation to stubbornly cling to an idea of the way things are that is based purely on the way they would like things to be, or the way they imagine things to be, or even the way they remember that things used to be. They are impervious to anything that contradicts this, even if it is meticulously factual and supported by evidence from sources that they would normally regard as authoritative.
    Very true. The shoplifting argument was vivid evidence of this

    The blinkered centrist Dads insisting it's "always been like this", "I worked in retail a decade ago, nothing has changed"

    This despite PBers offering personal lived experience

    Even when we showed the Centrist Dads the actual hard evidence - a ten fold increase in shoplifting in ten years, according to the Economist - they then claimed they'd always accepted this, or they pretended that it was some statistical anomaly
    Though there is a facile enjoyment in turning the ghastly phrases of the woke against them, I can't get on board with using 'lived experience', even in semi-jest.
    I am in two mind. I despise anything and everything to do with Wokeness and the Woke (I'm sorry if this comes as a shock), however I believe the phrase "lived experience" is actually useful, and captures something particular which is not quite captured by the simple word "experience"
    "Real experience" is probably the phrase that would have been used a few years or decades back to convey the same thing.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,194
    In fairness, the new Pope was on RTÉ's list of 16 possible winners, so it wasn't a complete bolt from the blue.

    https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2025/0507/1511412-vatican-conclave-pope/
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,019
    TimS said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Any guesses who reportedly just said this?

    “You have to understand that we won a massive majority and we have absolute, ultimate control.”

    Palpatine?
    The new Reform UK leader of Kent council.

    https://www.kentonline.co.uk/kent/news/new-kcc-reform-uk-leader-reveals-plan-for-council-324062/
    'She said: “You have to understand that we won a massive majority and we have absolute, ultimate control.”
    Mrs Kemkaran vowed to remove the Ukraine flag from the chamber, open the council’s books to auditors and review working practices across the authority.
    Later she emerged and said: “This is my first day in a brand new job and you wouldn’t expect me to have all the answers.

    “We are going to get the auditors to come in and take a leaf out of Elon Musk’s book and appoint some sort of DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) to go through everything in detail and find out where the money is being spent and whether we can make any changes and make life better for the residents.”

    The new KCC leader then suggests her Reform administration will lead Kent in a similar way to Trump is leading the US'
    She’s going to be disappointed when she discovers it’s mainly spent on social care for elderly reform voters
    The whole article is both depressing (because it seems to confirm the worst assumptions about Reform in office) and also encouraging (because it seems to confirm the worst assumptions about Reform in office).

    Does she really think they got voted into the county council by people who share JD Vance’s views on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Elon Musk’s views on slashing public spending? Maybe she does. But it does look like a case of spotting that voters like some aspects of the MAGA playbook and assuming they like the whole package.
    The thing with the Ukrainian flag is quite bizarre. There's no cost cutting involved it's just a political statement, and the statement can only be 'Vlad is our friend'. This is the mirror image of militant Labour councils in the 1980s siding with the Soviets.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,429
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:



    I’ll still be shopping at Tesco, going swimming sometimes, nibbling nuts in the afternoon, drinking red wine from a sherry glass, I’ll still be doing these same things, but I’ll be doing them in a world that has changed.

    This is faintly tragic, and also ever so slightly provincial, and non-U. But, then again, you are a retired accountant.

    I agree the post WWII world is now over. VE Day 80 didn't have the spark it should, and it's just moving into history now.
    That was my point - and more specifically 'feeling' it as opposed to understanding it in the abstract.

    Always a point to my contributions. I'm never just prattling away for the sake of it.
    I now have a weird image in my head of a not terribly old, but fading fast, retired accountant, with his slippers on, and on a reclining SCS leather armchair, sipping some cheap red plonk out of a sherry glass, whilst watching re-runs of Poirot and a Stennah Stairlift brochure on his lap.
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does the centre-left have any explanations for why Ref is doing so well atm, (other than they're a bunch of thickos, bigots, etc)?

    Yes.
    They are offering attractive yet simplistic and unworkable solutions at a time of economic difficulty.
    As a non-lefty right of centre one time One Nation Tory who voted Remain (and genuinely loathes Farage), I think I have come to a conclusion as to why some vote Reform. It is simply that they are pissed off. Pissed off with the woke rachet, where they perceive that greater credence is given to immigrants, where statues of historic figures are torn down and those responsible are not prosecuted, where one might be cancelled for stating something that someone else decides is not the modern perspective, where policemen will arrest you for the mildest of "crimes", or perhaps for defending your own property, but real thugs thieves and burglars seem to get off scot-free, because the police claim they do not "have the resources". These are the types of reasons. Mainstream politician need to address them.
    The problem with tackling those "issues" is made more difficult because they are right wing Social Media urban myths. The truth is too boring for the click bait circuit.
    You think it’s a social media urban myth that the police aren’t bothering to investigate phone theft and bike theft and car theft? And shoplifting?
    The government has now said the police must investigate thefts under £200
    This government says a lot and does less than zero

    Remember SMASH THE GANGS

    It's so risible it's mortifying. I notice Sir Beer Korma has largely stopped saying "we're going to SMASH THE GANGS" presumably because everyone would laugh at him with scornful contempt
    Well I suppose it has to ensure it has enough prison places for senders of abusive tweets and Koran burners before jailing shoplifters and gang members
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/05/08/man-who-burned-koran-faces-charges-for-harassing-islam/
    But remember we don't have a blasphemy law protecting Islam... you just get arrested and prosecuted and go on trial if you burn a Koran. It's completely different
    He has been charged under the Public Order Act for causing 'anxiety and distress' to Muslims in public.

    In which case can we monarchists get the police to arrest Smith and his Republic 'Not My King' placard wavers as they are causing us and no doubt the King 'anxiety and distress' when protesting in public too?
    Likewise, they need to arrest every single marcher on every pro-Palestinian march, for causing "anxiety and distress" to Jews

    But of course they won't do that, Our new blasphemy law only applies to Islam, largely because some adherents of the Religion of Peace have a tendency to behead people

    I applaud Jenrick for wading in on this. He speaks articulately. The Tories really need to dump Badenoch and install Jenrick ASAFP. She's not going to miraculously improve, she is what she is: likewable but lightweight, not as smart as she believes, bad at thinking on her feet, too immersed in the Twitterverse

    Jenrick might just POSSIBLY move the dial, given the chance
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,533
    edited May 9
    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    That's harsh but it's fair in two respects. He does lack charisma and he's a manager not a visionary. However a charismatic persona and a grand vision are imo overrated in politics compared to competence and good intentions. I'd always take the latter. And it's what we need. We're a free and prosperous country which could be better in many respects, not a broken shithole of a place.
    I agree on that. Britain is a lovely place to be on a day like this.

    I think the doom and gloom is heavily overdone by those plastic patriots determined to talk down the country.
    I've noticed a tendency among the kind of people who like to complain about misinformation to stubbornly cling to an idea of the way things are that is based purely on the way they would like things to be, or the way they imagine things to be, or even the way they remember that things used to be. They are impervious to anything that contradicts this, even if it is meticulously factual and supported by evidence from sources that they would normally regard as authoritative.
    Very true. The shoplifting argument was vivid evidence of this

    The blinkered centrist Dads insisting it's "always been like this", "I worked in retail a decade ago, nothing has changed"

    This despite PBers offering personal lived experience

    Even when we showed the Centrist Dads the actual hard evidence - a ten fold increase in shoplifting in ten years, according to the Economist - they then claimed they'd always accepted this, or they pretended that it was some statistical anomaly
    Lived experience v lived experience.

    You mentioned bike thefts earlier - that's another thing that's being going on forever, the police rarely do anything, yet has dropped off quite a bit according to the crime survey.
    Thefts are down over the last 2 decades, as are violent crimes, homicides and criminal damage.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/bulletins/crimeinenglandandwales/yearendingseptember2024#:~:text=4.5% of people aged 16,people) had experienced sexual assault

    Burglary has one of the steepest drops, down over 66% over the last 2 decades.

    Patterns of crime change over time. Part of the rise in shoplifting and fall in burglary is because it has become increasingly hard to sell on items like TVs etc, and also physically harder to nick big screens. Fewer people have HiFi either, and few keep cash at home. Nicking and reselling food and booze from supermarkets etc is easier, particularly when there are so few staff on the floor and tills. Mobile phones are amongst the exceptions as relatively easily sold on. Druggies need to finance their habits somehow.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,429
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    That's harsh but it's fair in two respects. He does lack charisma and he's a manager not a visionary. However a charismatic persona and a grand vision are imo overrated in politics compared to competence and good intentions. I'd always take the latter. And it's what we need. We're a free and prosperous country which could be better in many respects, not a broken shithole of a place.
    I agree on that. Britain is a lovely place to be on a day like this.

    I think the doom and gloom is heavily overdone by those plastic patriots determined to talk down the country.
    I presume you are referring to me

    If so, what a load of bollocks

    It's not some rightwing social media myth that British incomes have stagnated for almost two decades

    It's not some made up Nazi nonsense that we have endured huge, unwanted immigration: fact is, we have, and no one voted for it, and people are justifiably angry about this

    It's not some fascist agit-prop that the public realm - what it looks like, how it feels, is in unpleasant decline. We've had this debate. Shoplifting has risen ten fold in ten years

    That's why Reform is on 33%, Labour are on 20% and the Tories on 16%. Voters are extremely pissed off, and for good reason

    So shove your "plastic patriot" jibes up your ludicrous butt-hole
    Foxy didn't mean you. He meant those people on the right who make a big deal of loving their country whilst always moaning about taxes and immigration.
    Ah, thanks. Sorry @foxy. As you were
  • isamisam Posts: 41,510
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    That's harsh but it's fair in two respects. He does lack charisma and he's a manager not a visionary. However a charismatic persona and a grand vision are imo overrated in politics compared to competence and good intentions. I'd always take the latter. And it's what we need. We're a free and prosperous country which could be better in many respects, not a broken shithole of a place.
    I agree on that. Britain is a lovely place to be on a day like this.

    I think the doom and gloom is heavily overdone by those plastic patriots determined to talk down the country.
    I've noticed a tendency among the kind of people who like to complain about misinformation to stubbornly cling to an idea of the way things are that is based purely on the way they would like things to be, or the way they imagine things to be, or even the way they remember that things used to be. They are impervious to anything that contradicts this, even if it is meticulously factual and supported by evidence from sources that they would normally regard as authoritative.
    Very true. The shoplifting argument was vivid evidence of this

    The blinkered centrist Dads insisting it's "always been like this", "I worked in retail a decade ago, nothing has changed"

    This despite PBers offering personal lived experience

    Even when we showed the Centrist Dads the actual hard evidence - a ten fold increase in shoplifting in ten years, according to the Economist - they then claimed they'd always accepted this, or they pretended that it was some statistical anomaly
    Same with immigration; centrist Dads are defending numbers they’d never have believed possible a decade ago, and calling people who want a return to coalition style figures of 250k ‘Fascists’
  • eekeek Posts: 29,966
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:



    I’ll still be shopping at Tesco, going swimming sometimes, nibbling nuts in the afternoon, drinking red wine from a sherry glass, I’ll still be doing these same things, but I’ll be doing them in a world that has changed.

    This is faintly tragic, and also ever so slightly provincial, and non-U. But, then again, you are a retired accountant.

    I agree the post WWII world is now over. VE Day 80 didn't have the spark it should, and it's just moving into history now.
    That was my point - and more specifically 'feeling' it as opposed to understanding it in the abstract.

    Always a point to my contributions. I'm never just prattling away for the sake of it.
    I now have a weird image in my head of a not terribly old, but fading fast, retired accountant, with his slippers on, and on a reclining SCS leather armchair, sipping some cheap red plonk out of a sherry glass, whilst watching re-runs of Poirot and a Stennah Stairlift brochure on his lap.
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does the centre-left have any explanations for why Ref is doing so well atm, (other than they're a bunch of thickos, bigots, etc)?

    Yes.
    They are offering attractive yet simplistic and unworkable solutions at a time of economic difficulty.
    As a non-lefty right of centre one time One Nation Tory who voted Remain (and genuinely loathes Farage), I think I have come to a conclusion as to why some vote Reform. It is simply that they are pissed off. Pissed off with the woke rachet, where they perceive that greater credence is given to immigrants, where statues of historic figures are torn down and those responsible are not prosecuted, where one might be cancelled for stating something that someone else decides is not the modern perspective, where policemen will arrest you for the mildest of "crimes", or perhaps for defending your own property, but real thugs thieves and burglars seem to get off scot-free, because the police claim they do not "have the resources". These are the types of reasons. Mainstream politician need to address them.
    The problem with tackling those "issues" is made more difficult because they are right wing Social Media urban myths. The truth is too boring for the click bait circuit.
    You think it’s a social media urban myth that the police aren’t bothering to investigate phone theft and bike theft and car theft? And shoplifting?
    The government has now said the police must investigate thefts under £200
    This government says a lot and does less than zero

    Remember SMASH THE GANGS

    It's so risible it's mortifying. I notice Sir Beer Korma has largely stopped saying "we're going to SMASH THE GANGS" presumably because everyone would laugh at him with scornful contempt
    Well I suppose it has to ensure it has enough prison places for senders of abusive tweets and Koran burners before jailing shoplifters and gang members
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/05/08/man-who-burned-koran-faces-charges-for-harassing-islam/
    But remember we don't have a blasphemy law protecting Islam... you just get arrested and prosecuted and go on trial if you burn a Koran. It's completely different
    He has been charged under the Public Order Act for causing 'anxiety and distress' to Muslims in public.

    In which case can we monarchists get the police to arrest Smith and his Republic 'Not My King' placard wavers as they are causing us and no doubt the King 'anxiety and distress' when protesting in public too?
    Likewise, they need to arrest every single marcher on every pro-Palestinian march, for causing "anxiety and distress" to Jews

    But of course they won't do that, Our new blasphemy law only applies to Islam, largely because some adherents of the Religion of Peace have a tendency to behead people

    I applaud Jenrick for wading in on this. He speaks articulately. The Tories really need to dump Badenoch and install Jenrick ASAFP. She's not going to miraculously improve, she is what she is: likewable but lightweight, not as smart as she believes, bad at thinking on her feet, too immersed in the Twitterverse

    Jenrick might just POSSIBLY move the dial, given the chance
    Jenrick talks about a pact with Reform - which is basically saying the Tories have no purpose nowadays.

    I just don’t see what any Tory member sees in him
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,533
    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:



    I’ll still be shopping at Tesco, going swimming sometimes, nibbling nuts in the afternoon, drinking red wine from a sherry glass, I’ll still be doing these same things, but I’ll be doing them in a world that has changed.

    This is faintly tragic, and also ever so slightly provincial, and non-U. But, then again, you are a retired accountant.

    I agree the post WWII world is now over. VE Day 80 didn't have the spark it should, and it's just moving into history now.
    That was my point - and more specifically 'feeling' it as opposed to understanding it in the abstract.

    Always a point to my contributions. I'm never just prattling away for the sake of it.
    I now have a weird image in my head of a not terribly old, but fading fast, retired accountant, with his slippers on, and on a reclining SCS leather armchair, sipping some cheap red plonk out of a sherry glass, whilst watching re-runs of Poirot and a Stennah Stairlift brochure on his lap.
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does the centre-left have any explanations for why Ref is doing so well atm, (other than they're a bunch of thickos, bigots, etc)?

    Yes.
    They are offering attractive yet simplistic and unworkable solutions at a time of economic difficulty.
    As a non-lefty right of centre one time One Nation Tory who voted Remain (and genuinely loathes Farage), I think I have come to a conclusion as to why some vote Reform. It is simply that they are pissed off. Pissed off with the woke rachet, where they perceive that greater credence is given to immigrants, where statues of historic figures are torn down and those responsible are not prosecuted, where one might be cancelled for stating something that someone else decides is not the modern perspective, where policemen will arrest you for the mildest of "crimes", or perhaps for defending your own property, but real thugs thieves and burglars seem to get off scot-free, because the police claim they do not "have the resources". These are the types of reasons. Mainstream politician need to address them.
    The problem with tackling those "issues" is made more difficult because they are right wing Social Media urban myths. The truth is too boring for the click bait circuit.
    You think it’s a social media urban myth that the police aren’t bothering to investigate phone theft and bike theft and car theft? And shoplifting?
    I agree those are real issues, but the rest are myths.

    What statue has been pulled down and those responsible not prosecuted for example?
    The people who pulled down the Colston statue were 'prosecuted' but the trial was allowed to be turned into a farce.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-59727161
    So they were certainly prosecuted, and had due process.

    What statue was pulled down without prosecution?
    The verdict not going the way you wanted means it wasn’t a proper trial is very much the Reform vibe (that word again).
    Sounds like an EU referendum
    Of the 43 versions of Brexit being wafted about, you got at least one of them. I’m afraid pandering to every sectarian desire just wasn’t possible.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,533
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    That's harsh but it's fair in two respects. He does lack charisma and he's a manager not a visionary. However a charismatic persona and a grand vision are imo overrated in politics compared to competence and good intentions. I'd always take the latter. And it's what we need. We're a free and prosperous country which could be better in many respects, not a broken shithole of a place.
    I agree on that. Britain is a lovely place to be on a day like this.

    I think the doom and gloom is heavily overdone by those plastic patriots determined to talk down the country.
    I've noticed a tendency among the kind of people who like to complain about misinformation to stubbornly cling to an idea of the way things are that is based purely on the way they would like things to be, or the way they imagine things to be, or even the way they remember that things used to be. They are impervious to anything that contradicts this, even if it is meticulously factual and supported by evidence from sources that they would normally regard as authoritative.
    Very true. The shoplifting argument was vivid evidence of this

    The blinkered centrist Dads insisting it's "always been like this", "I worked in retail a decade ago, nothing has changed"

    This despite PBers offering personal lived experience

    Even when we showed the Centrist Dads the actual hard evidence - a ten fold increase in shoplifting in ten years, according to the Economist - they then claimed they'd always accepted this, or they pretended that it was some statistical anomaly
    Though there is a facile enjoyment in turning the ghastly phrases of the woke against them, I can't get on board with using 'lived experience', even in semi-jest.
    I am in two mind. I despise anything and everything to do with Wokeness and the Woke (I'm sorry if this comes as a shock), however I believe the phrase "lived experience" is actually useful, and captures something particular which is not quite captured by the simple word "experience"
    "Real experience" is probably the phrase that would have been used a few years or decades back to convey the same thing.
    "First hand" or "direct" experience is probably how we would have described it in the past, but ours is an evolving language.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,429
    eek said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:



    I’ll still be shopping at Tesco, going swimming sometimes, nibbling nuts in the afternoon, drinking red wine from a sherry glass, I’ll still be doing these same things, but I’ll be doing them in a world that has changed.

    This is faintly tragic, and also ever so slightly provincial, and non-U. But, then again, you are a retired accountant.

    I agree the post WWII world is now over. VE Day 80 didn't have the spark it should, and it's just moving into history now.
    That was my point - and more specifically 'feeling' it as opposed to understanding it in the abstract.

    Always a point to my contributions. I'm never just prattling away for the sake of it.
    I now have a weird image in my head of a not terribly old, but fading fast, retired accountant, with his slippers on, and on a reclining SCS leather armchair, sipping some cheap red plonk out of a sherry glass, whilst watching re-runs of Poirot and a Stennah Stairlift brochure on his lap.
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does the centre-left have any explanations for why Ref is doing so well atm, (other than they're a bunch of thickos, bigots, etc)?

    Yes.
    They are offering attractive yet simplistic and unworkable solutions at a time of economic difficulty.
    As a non-lefty right of centre one time One Nation Tory who voted Remain (and genuinely loathes Farage), I think I have come to a conclusion as to why some vote Reform. It is simply that they are pissed off. Pissed off with the woke rachet, where they perceive that greater credence is given to immigrants, where statues of historic figures are torn down and those responsible are not prosecuted, where one might be cancelled for stating something that someone else decides is not the modern perspective, where policemen will arrest you for the mildest of "crimes", or perhaps for defending your own property, but real thugs thieves and burglars seem to get off scot-free, because the police claim they do not "have the resources". These are the types of reasons. Mainstream politician need to address them.
    The problem with tackling those "issues" is made more difficult because they are right wing Social Media urban myths. The truth is too boring for the click bait circuit.
    You think it’s a social media urban myth that the police aren’t bothering to investigate phone theft and bike theft and car theft? And shoplifting?
    The government has now said the police must investigate thefts under £200
    This government says a lot and does less than zero

    Remember SMASH THE GANGS

    It's so risible it's mortifying. I notice Sir Beer Korma has largely stopped saying "we're going to SMASH THE GANGS" presumably because everyone would laugh at him with scornful contempt
    Well I suppose it has to ensure it has enough prison places for senders of abusive tweets and Koran burners before jailing shoplifters and gang members
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/05/08/man-who-burned-koran-faces-charges-for-harassing-islam/
    But remember we don't have a blasphemy law protecting Islam... you just get arrested and prosecuted and go on trial if you burn a Koran. It's completely different
    He has been charged under the Public Order Act for causing 'anxiety and distress' to Muslims in public.

    In which case can we monarchists get the police to arrest Smith and his Republic 'Not My King' placard wavers as they are causing us and no doubt the King 'anxiety and distress' when protesting in public too?
    Likewise, they need to arrest every single marcher on every pro-Palestinian march, for causing "anxiety and distress" to Jews

    But of course they won't do that, Our new blasphemy law only applies to Islam, largely because some adherents of the Religion of Peace have a tendency to behead people

    I applaud Jenrick for wading in on this. He speaks articulately. The Tories really need to dump Badenoch and install Jenrick ASAFP. She's not going to miraculously improve, she is what she is: likewable but lightweight, not as smart as she believes, bad at thinking on her feet, too immersed in the Twitterverse

    Jenrick might just POSSIBLY move the dial, given the chance
    Jenrick talks about a pact with Reform - which is basically saying the Tories have no purpose nowadays.

    I just don’t see what any Tory member sees in him
    He's eloquent, and quite bold; he's politically clever and proactive; and he's genuinely good at using social media

    Five things Badenoch is not

    Fact is, the Tories are down at 16% and in danger of disappearing forever. They only have 120 odd MPs so the talent pool is tiny. Getting Boris back is almost impossible - how does he become MP, for a start? Where are the Tories going to win a by-election between now and 2028?

    That leaves Jenrick, as far as I can see. Someone like Cleverly will lead them straight to the political slaughterhouse. An invisible centrist, who can't do a deal with Reform

    If you can find a better choice in the meagre Tory ranks, tell them, and remember this person is not meant to appeal to YOU
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,533
    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    That's harsh but it's fair in two respects. He does lack charisma and he's a manager not a visionary. However a charismatic persona and a grand vision are imo overrated in politics compared to competence and good intentions. I'd always take the latter. And it's what we need. We're a free and prosperous country which could be better in many respects, not a broken shithole of a place.
    I agree on that. Britain is a lovely place to be on a day like this.

    I think the doom and gloom is heavily overdone by those plastic patriots determined to talk down the country.
    I've noticed a tendency among the kind of people who like to complain about misinformation to stubbornly cling to an idea of the way things are that is based purely on the way they would like things to be, or the way they imagine things to be, or even the way they remember that things used to be. They are impervious to anything that contradicts this, even if it is meticulously factual and supported by evidence from sources that they would normally regard as authoritative.
    Very true. The shoplifting argument was vivid evidence of this

    The blinkered centrist Dads insisting it's "always been like this", "I worked in retail a decade ago, nothing has changed"

    This despite PBers offering personal lived experience

    Even when we showed the Centrist Dads the actual hard evidence - a ten fold increase in shoplifting in ten years, according to the Economist - they then claimed they'd always accepted this, or they pretended that it was some statistical anomaly
    Same with immigration; centrist Dads are defending numbers they’d never have believed possible a decade ago, and calling people who want a return to coalition style figures of 250k ‘Fascists’
    Which centrist dad has said such things here? I don't recall any.

    It looks like your usual straw-manning to me.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,690
    Foxy said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    That's harsh but it's fair in two respects. He does lack charisma and he's a manager not a visionary. However a charismatic persona and a grand vision are imo overrated in politics compared to competence and good intentions. I'd always take the latter. And it's what we need. We're a free and prosperous country which could be better in many respects, not a broken shithole of a place.
    I agree on that. Britain is a lovely place to be on a day like this.

    I think the doom and gloom is heavily overdone by those plastic patriots determined to talk down the country.
    I've noticed a tendency among the kind of people who like to complain about misinformation to stubbornly cling to an idea of the way things are that is based purely on the way they would like things to be, or the way they imagine things to be, or even the way they remember that things used to be. They are impervious to anything that contradicts this, even if it is meticulously factual and supported by evidence from sources that they would normally regard as authoritative.
    Very true. The shoplifting argument was vivid evidence of this

    The blinkered centrist Dads insisting it's "always been like this", "I worked in retail a decade ago, nothing has changed"

    This despite PBers offering personal lived experience

    Even when we showed the Centrist Dads the actual hard evidence - a ten fold increase in shoplifting in ten years, according to the Economist - they then claimed they'd always accepted this, or they pretended that it was some statistical anomaly
    Lived experience v lived experience.

    You mentioned bike thefts earlier - that's another thing that's being going on forever, the police rarely do anything, yet has dropped off quite a bit according to the crime survey.
    Thefts are down over the last 2 decades, as are violent crimes, homicides and criminal damage.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/bulletins/crimeinenglandandwales/yearendingseptember2024#:~:text=4.5% of people aged 16,people) had experienced sexual assault

    Burglary has one of the steepest drops, down over 66% over the last 2 decades.

    Patterns of crime change over time. Part of the rise in shoplifting and fall in burglary is because it has become increasingly hard to sell on items like TVs etc, and also physically harder to nick big screens. Fewer people have HiFi either, and few keep cash at home. Nicking and reselling food and booze from supermarkets etc is easier, particularly when there are so few staff on the floor and tills. Mobile phones are amongst the exceptions as relatively easily sold on. Druggies need to finance their habits somehow.
    Are those figures from reported crime or crime actually dealt with by the police?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,024
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:



    I’ll still be shopping at Tesco, going swimming sometimes, nibbling nuts in the afternoon, drinking red wine from a sherry glass, I’ll still be doing these same things, but I’ll be doing them in a world that has changed.

    This is faintly tragic, and also ever so slightly provincial, and non-U. But, then again, you are a retired accountant.

    I agree the post WWII world is now over. VE Day 80 didn't have the spark it should, and it's just moving into history now.
    That was my point - and more specifically 'feeling' it as opposed to understanding it in the abstract.

    Always a point to my contributions. I'm never just prattling away for the sake of it.
    I now have a weird image in my head of a not terribly old, but fading fast, retired accountant, with his slippers on, and on a reclining SCS leather armchair, sipping some cheap red plonk out of a sherry glass, whilst watching re-runs of Poirot and a Stennah Stairlift brochure on his lap.
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does the centre-left have any explanations for why Ref is doing so well atm, (other than they're a bunch of thickos, bigots, etc)?

    Yes.
    They are offering attractive yet simplistic and unworkable solutions at a time of economic difficulty.
    As a non-lefty right of centre one time One Nation Tory who voted Remain (and genuinely loathes Farage), I think I have come to a conclusion as to why some vote Reform. It is simply that they are pissed off. Pissed off with the woke rachet, where they perceive that greater credence is given to immigrants, where statues of historic figures are torn down and those responsible are not prosecuted, where one might be cancelled for stating something that someone else decides is not the modern perspective, where policemen will arrest you for the mildest of "crimes", or perhaps for defending your own property, but real thugs thieves and burglars seem to get off scot-free, because the police claim they do not "have the resources". These are the types of reasons. Mainstream politician need to address them.
    The problem with tackling those "issues" is made more difficult because they are right wing Social Media urban myths. The truth is too boring for the click bait circuit.
    You think it’s a social media urban myth that the police aren’t bothering to investigate phone theft and bike theft and car theft? And shoplifting?
    The government has now said the police must investigate thefts under £200
    This government says a lot and does less than zero

    Remember SMASH THE GANGS

    It's so risible it's mortifying. I notice Sir Beer Korma has largely stopped saying "we're going to SMASH THE GANGS" presumably because everyone would laugh at him with scornful contempt
    Well I suppose it has to ensure it has enough prison places for senders of abusive tweets and Koran burners before jailing shoplifters and gang members
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/05/08/man-who-burned-koran-faces-charges-for-harassing-islam/
    But remember we don't have a blasphemy law protecting Islam... you just get arrested and prosecuted and go on trial if you burn a Koran. It's completely different
    You don't strike me as going around terrified of insulting Muslims. Perhaps you're the courageous type.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,429
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    That's harsh but it's fair in two respects. He does lack charisma and he's a manager not a visionary. However a charismatic persona and a grand vision are imo overrated in politics compared to competence and good intentions. I'd always take the latter. And it's what we need. We're a free and prosperous country which could be better in many respects, not a broken shithole of a place.
    I agree on that. Britain is a lovely place to be on a day like this.

    I think the doom and gloom is heavily overdone by those plastic patriots determined to talk down the country.
    I've noticed a tendency among the kind of people who like to complain about misinformation to stubbornly cling to an idea of the way things are that is based purely on the way they would like things to be, or the way they imagine things to be, or even the way they remember that things used to be. They are impervious to anything that contradicts this, even if it is meticulously factual and supported by evidence from sources that they would normally regard as authoritative.
    Very true. The shoplifting argument was vivid evidence of this

    The blinkered centrist Dads insisting it's "always been like this", "I worked in retail a decade ago, nothing has changed"

    This despite PBers offering personal lived experience

    Even when we showed the Centrist Dads the actual hard evidence - a ten fold increase in shoplifting in ten years, according to the Economist - they then claimed they'd always accepted this, or they pretended that it was some statistical anomaly
    Though there is a facile enjoyment in turning the ghastly phrases of the woke against them, I can't get on board with using 'lived experience', even in semi-jest.
    I am in two mind. I despise anything and everything to do with Wokeness and the Woke (I'm sorry if this comes as a shock), however I believe the phrase "lived experience" is actually useful, and captures something particular which is not quite captured by the simple word "experience"
    "Real experience" is probably the phrase that would have been used a few years or decades back to convey the same thing.
    "First hand" or "direct" experience is probably how we would have described it in the past, but ours is an evolving language.
    But "lived" is better. "Lived experience" says:

    *this is something I have personally witnessed or experienced in my life, which has impacted my life*

    I hate to admit the Woke have created a useful phrase - but they have
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,019
    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    That's harsh but it's fair in two respects. He does lack charisma and he's a manager not a visionary. However a charismatic persona and a grand vision are imo overrated in politics compared to competence and good intentions. I'd always take the latter. And it's what we need. We're a free and prosperous country which could be better in many respects, not a broken shithole of a place.
    I agree on that. Britain is a lovely place to be on a day like this.

    I think the doom and gloom is heavily overdone by those plastic patriots determined to talk down the country.
    I've noticed a tendency among the kind of people who like to complain about misinformation to stubbornly cling to an idea of the way things are that is based purely on the way they would like things to be, or the way they imagine things to be, or even the way they remember that things used to be. They are impervious to anything that contradicts this, even if it is meticulously factual and supported by evidence from sources that they would normally regard as authoritative.
    Very true. The shoplifting argument was vivid evidence of this

    The blinkered centrist Dads insisting it's "always been like this", "I worked in retail a decade ago, nothing has changed"

    This despite PBers offering personal lived experience

    Even when we showed the Centrist Dads the actual hard evidence - a ten fold increase in shoplifting in ten years, according to the Economist - they then claimed they'd always accepted this, or they pretended that it was some statistical anomaly
    Same with immigration; centrist Dads are defending numbers they’d never have believed possible a decade ago, and calling people who want a return to coalition style figures of 250k ‘Fascists’
    Every self-respecting centrist dad should be relaxed about criticizing soaring immigration levels as it was 'rock star' Boris who caused them. A more fitting monument to the prescience of centrist dads could not exist.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,024
    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    Brutal but eloquent. And fair

    On top of all these failings - and they are grave - starmer is a priggish and reeking hypocrite. Lecturing the Tories for their venality then as soon as he reached power grabbing all the freebies going right down to designer spectacles. And he’s loaded. What a contemptible wanker
    The hope was that he'd sort out the country with the same ruthlessness as he did the Labour Party. A sort of surgeon-janitor.

    Still waiting. What's mad is there remains a significant chance he gets another term based on a Farage protest vote. They'll easily get over 30% if that's the choice.
    Indeed. It’s such a waste of a huge majority

    Starmer had an incredible opportunity to remake Britain as much as thatcher did. But in a new way

    He’s already proved he’s not up to the task. He’s not clever enough. He hasn’t got the charm to carry the country not the intellectual heft to persuade his party, and he’s a weird freak who never dreams so he has absolutely no ideas. He’s a quintessential apparatchik who should be running the library and arts department of a county council
    Not really, Starmer is a dull centrist North London ex lawyer who was elected as he wasn't the Tories and didn't frighten swing voters.

    Corbyn could have remade Britain in the way Thatcher did had he won a majority and would have shifted back to a more statist leftwing UK as Attlee had built before Thatcher came along.

    Boris had a mandate to really change Britain via Brexit but didn't really deliver.

    Starmer is not an ideologue but a bureaucrat
    With Corbyn or Johnson the word you are looking for is not "remade" but "damage" . Both had policies that were bad to worse, neither were successful.
    They at least offered significant ideological change for the UK with some flair and charisma, successful or not, Starmer just offers dull stagnation led by a middle manager
    Hey what's this? Are you inching your way to Reform?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,718

    In fairness, the new Pope was on RTÉ's list of 16 possible winners, so it wasn't a complete bolt from the blue.

    https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2025/0507/1511412-vatican-conclave-pope/

    He was in the NY Times top 6 list too.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,414

    Foxy said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    That's harsh but it's fair in two respects. He does lack charisma and he's a manager not a visionary. However a charismatic persona and a grand vision are imo overrated in politics compared to competence and good intentions. I'd always take the latter. And it's what we need. We're a free and prosperous country which could be better in many respects, not a broken shithole of a place.
    I agree on that. Britain is a lovely place to be on a day like this.

    I think the doom and gloom is heavily overdone by those plastic patriots determined to talk down the country.
    I've noticed a tendency among the kind of people who like to complain about misinformation to stubbornly cling to an idea of the way things are that is based purely on the way they would like things to be, or the way they imagine things to be, or even the way they remember that things used to be. They are impervious to anything that contradicts this, even if it is meticulously factual and supported by evidence from sources that they would normally regard as authoritative.
    Very true. The shoplifting argument was vivid evidence of this

    The blinkered centrist Dads insisting it's "always been like this", "I worked in retail a decade ago, nothing has changed"

    This despite PBers offering personal lived experience

    Even when we showed the Centrist Dads the actual hard evidence - a ten fold increase in shoplifting in ten years, according to the Economist - they then claimed they'd always accepted this, or they pretended that it was some statistical anomaly
    Lived experience v lived experience.

    You mentioned bike thefts earlier - that's another thing that's being going on forever, the police rarely do anything, yet has dropped off quite a bit according to the crime survey.
    Thefts are down over the last 2 decades, as are violent crimes, homicides and criminal damage.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/bulletins/crimeinenglandandwales/yearendingseptember2024#:~:text=4.5% of people aged 16,people) had experienced sexual assault

    Burglary has one of the steepest drops, down over 66% over the last 2 decades.

    Patterns of crime change over time. Part of the rise in shoplifting and fall in burglary is because it has become increasingly hard to sell on items like TVs etc, and also physically harder to nick big screens. Fewer people have HiFi either, and few keep cash at home. Nicking and reselling food and booze from supermarkets etc is easier, particularly when there are so few staff on the floor and tills. Mobile phones are amongst the exceptions as relatively easily sold on. Druggies need to finance their habits somehow.
    Are those figures from reported crime or crime actually dealt with by the police?
    The report is both. What Foxy states is based on the survey if crime that people have experienced.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,690
    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:



    I’ll still be shopping at Tesco, going swimming sometimes, nibbling nuts in the afternoon, drinking red wine from a sherry glass, I’ll still be doing these same things, but I’ll be doing them in a world that has changed.

    This is faintly tragic, and also ever so slightly provincial, and non-U. But, then again, you are a retired accountant.

    I agree the post WWII world is now over. VE Day 80 didn't have the spark it should, and it's just moving into history now.
    That was my point - and more specifically 'feeling' it as opposed to understanding it in the abstract.

    Always a point to my contributions. I'm never just prattling away for the sake of it.
    I now have a weird image in my head of a not terribly old, but fading fast, retired accountant, with his slippers on, and on a reclining SCS leather armchair, sipping some cheap red plonk out of a sherry glass, whilst watching re-runs of Poirot and a Stennah Stairlift brochure on his lap.
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does the centre-left have any explanations for why Ref is doing so well atm, (other than they're a bunch of thickos, bigots, etc)?

    Yes.
    They are offering attractive yet simplistic and unworkable solutions at a time of economic difficulty.
    As a non-lefty right of centre one time One Nation Tory who voted Remain (and genuinely loathes Farage), I think I have come to a conclusion as to why some vote Reform. It is simply that they are pissed off. Pissed off with the woke rachet, where they perceive that greater credence is given to immigrants, where statues of historic figures are torn down and those responsible are not prosecuted, where one might be cancelled for stating something that someone else decides is not the modern perspective, where policemen will arrest you for the mildest of "crimes", or perhaps for defending your own property, but real thugs thieves and burglars seem to get off scot-free, because the police claim they do not "have the resources". These are the types of reasons. Mainstream politician need to address them.
    The problem with tackling those "issues" is made more difficult because they are right wing Social Media urban myths. The truth is too boring for the click bait circuit.
    You think it’s a social media urban myth that the police aren’t bothering to investigate phone theft and bike theft and car theft? And shoplifting?
    The government has now said the police must investigate thefts under £200
    This government says a lot and does less than zero

    Remember SMASH THE GANGS

    It's so risible it's mortifying. I notice Sir Beer Korma has largely stopped saying "we're going to SMASH THE GANGS" presumably because everyone would laugh at him with scornful contempt
    Well I suppose it has to ensure it has enough prison places for senders of abusive tweets and Koran burners before jailing shoplifters and gang members
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/05/08/man-who-burned-koran-faces-charges-for-harassing-islam/
    But remember we don't have a blasphemy law protecting Islam... you just get arrested and prosecuted and go on trial if you burn a Koran. It's completely different
    He has been charged under the Public Order Act for causing 'anxiety and distress' to Muslims in public.

    In which case can we monarchists get the police to arrest Smith and his Republic 'Not My King' placard wavers as they are causing us and no doubt the King 'anxiety and distress' when protesting in public too?
    Likewise, they need to arrest every single marcher on every pro-Palestinian march, for causing "anxiety and distress" to Jews

    But of course they won't do that, Our new blasphemy law only applies to Islam, largely because some adherents of the Religion of Peace have a tendency to behead people

    I applaud Jenrick for wading in on this. He speaks articulately. The Tories really need to dump Badenoch and install Jenrick ASAFP. She's not going to miraculously improve, she is what she is: likewable but lightweight, not as smart as she believes, bad at thinking on her feet, too immersed in the Twitterverse

    Jenrick might just POSSIBLY move the dial, given the chance
    Jenrick talks about a pact with Reform - which is basically saying the Tories have no purpose nowadays.

    I just don’t see what any Tory member sees in him
    He's eloquent, and quite bold; he's politically clever and proactive; and he's genuinely good at using social media

    Five things Badenoch is not

    Fact is, the Tories are down at 16% and in danger of disappearing forever. They only have 120 odd MPs so the talent pool is tiny. Getting Boris back is almost impossible - how does he become MP, for a start? Where are the Tories going to win a by-election between now and 2028?

    That leaves Jenrick, as far as I can see. Someone like Cleverly will lead them straight to the political slaughterhouse. An invisible centrist, who can't do a deal with Reform

    If you can find a better choice in the meagre Tory ranks, tell them, and remember this person is not meant to appeal to YOU
    I venture to suggest that too many people now believe, vaguely or clearly, that Boris is the cause of many of our problems for him ever to get back into Parliament.
    Unless Kemi nominates him as a Lord, which would probably lead to the abolition of the HoL.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,398
    edited May 9
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:



    I’ll still be shopping at Tesco, going swimming sometimes, nibbling nuts in the afternoon, drinking red wine from a sherry glass, I’ll still be doing these same things, but I’ll be doing them in a world that has changed.

    This is faintly tragic, and also ever so slightly provincial, and non-U. But, then again, you are a retired accountant.

    I agree the post WWII world is now over. VE Day 80 didn't have the spark it should, and it's just moving into history now.
    That was my point - and more specifically 'feeling' it as opposed to understanding it in the abstract.

    Always a point to my contributions. I'm never just prattling away for the sake of it.
    I now have a weird image in my head of a not terribly old, but fading fast, retired accountant, with his slippers on, and on a reclining SCS leather armchair, sipping some cheap red plonk out of a sherry glass, whilst watching re-runs of Poirot and a Stennah Stairlift brochure on his lap.
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does the centre-left have any explanations for why Ref is doing so well atm, (other than they're a bunch of thickos, bigots, etc)?

    Yes.
    They are offering attractive yet simplistic and unworkable solutions at a time of economic difficulty.
    As a non-lefty right of centre one time One Nation Tory who voted Remain (and genuinely loathes Farage), I think I have come to a conclusion as to why some vote Reform. It is simply that they are pissed off. Pissed off with the woke rachet, where they perceive that greater credence is given to immigrants, where statues of historic figures are torn down and those responsible are not prosecuted, where one might be cancelled for stating something that someone else decides is not the modern perspective, where policemen will arrest you for the mildest of "crimes", or perhaps for defending your own property, but real thugs thieves and burglars seem to get off scot-free, because the police claim they do not "have the resources". These are the types of reasons. Mainstream politician need to address them.
    The problem with tackling those "issues" is made more difficult because they are right wing Social Media urban myths. The truth is too boring for the click bait circuit.
    You think it’s a social media urban myth that the police aren’t bothering to investigate phone theft and bike theft and car theft? And shoplifting?
    The government has now said the police must investigate thefts under £200
    This government says a lot and does less than zero

    Remember SMASH THE GANGS

    It's so risible it's mortifying. I notice Sir Beer Korma has largely stopped saying "we're going to SMASH THE GANGS" presumably because everyone would laugh at him with scornful contempt
    Well I suppose it has to ensure it has enough prison places for senders of abusive tweets and Koran burners before jailing shoplifters and gang members
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/05/08/man-who-burned-koran-faces-charges-for-harassing-islam/
    But remember we don't have a blasphemy law protecting Islam... you just get arrested and prosecuted and go on trial if you burn a Koran. It's completely different
    He has been charged under the Public Order Act for causing 'anxiety and distress' to Muslims in public.

    In which case can we monarchists get the police to arrest Smith and his Republic 'Not My King' placard wavers as they are causing us and no doubt the King 'anxiety and distress' when protesting in public too?
    Likewise, they need to arrest every single marcher on every pro-Palestinian march, for causing "anxiety and distress" to Jews

    But of course they won't do that, Our new blasphemy law only applies to Islam, largely because some adherents of the Religion of Peace have a tendency to behead people

    I applaud Jenrick for wading in on this. He speaks articulately. The Tories really need to dump Badenoch and install Jenrick ASAFP. She's not going to miraculously improve, she is what she is: likewable but lightweight, not as smart as she believes, bad at thinking on her feet, too immersed in the Twitterverse

    Jenrick might just POSSIBLY move the dial, given the chance
    Yes, if you are going to arrest people under the Public Order Act for political statements or actions which cause no physical harm in public then you need to arrest leftwingers as well as rightwingers, otherwise the police just risk being seen as Starmer's woke regime's enforcers.

    As for the Conservatives, Jenrick is articulate but only Boris would move the dial.

    More In Common last week found that 20% would vote Conservative with Jenrick, actually 1% less than the 21% who would do so with Badenoch with Reform's lead over the Tories falling by a mere 1% too.

    Only Boris shifted the dial, with a Johnson return taking the Conservatives to 26% but even then that would still only be most seats in a hung parliament with Reform still on 23% even against Boris, Labour on just 22% and the LDs on 15%

    https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/2cyg5l1m/more-in-common-post-election-briefing-4.pdf (p48)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,747
    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    I read a brilliant substack observation by novelist Tim Lott the other day. On this subject: ageing

    He said “I often have this wilful delusion that getting old is like an illness. And one day soon I will wake up and feel better. And I will be 34 again”

    I live under the delusion that I’m not definitely going to age, that there’s a possibility I might dodge it (and to a certain extent dying). The epitome of wishful thinking!

    In the real world though, I just don’t buy the getting fat etc as you get older thing.. and if you stay relatively fit, and eat healthily, you don’t feel old.
    Hah. Martin Amis said exactly that. When he was young or even middle aged he said “I kinda convince myself that ageing is something that happens to other people, it won’t happen to me. I’m different”

    And then he got old. And died

    I’ve just checked his age at death - 73

    And the age of his father Kingsley at death? - 73

    This is one piece of wisdom I’ve accrued of late. People tend to die the same age as their parents. Sons as fathers. Daughters as mothers. I’ve had a couple of good friends conk out far too early in recent years - and they both had fathers that died early - at the same age

    Genetics is Destiny
    I’m hoping it doesn’t skip a generation, as my Grandad died very suddenly at 55 yet his three sons are all still alive in their 70s & 80s, each of whom have beaten cancer

    When I had a bad reaction to my Covid jab it was the first time I thought “I actually could die here”. Been very lucky I suppose
    Genetic destiny is not total. Earlier generations would have succumbed to those cancers, and perhaps your grandfather would have lived much longer with modern preventative therapy of cardiac risk factors. The rate of sudden cardiac deaths has halved over the last half century.

    In the end the tendency to turn into our parents takes over from a youthful determination to not be like them. You can trim that course in life a little, but it is hard work to go against that grain.
    Just seen this in the Telegraph.

    "Why senescent cells hold the key to almost every age-related disease
    These so-called ‘zombie’ cells seem to be a common denominator in disease – and may be the answer to ageing
    David Cox" (£)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/health-fitness/conditions/ageing/senescent-cells/
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,932
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    That's harsh but it's fair in two respects. He does lack charisma and he's a manager not a visionary. However a charismatic persona and a grand vision are imo overrated in politics compared to competence and good intentions. I'd always take the latter. And it's what we need. We're a free and prosperous country which could be better in many respects, not a broken shithole of a place.
    I agree on that. Britain is a lovely place to be on a day like this.

    I think the doom and gloom is heavily overdone by those plastic patriots determined to talk down the country.
    I've noticed a tendency among the kind of people who like to complain about misinformation to stubbornly cling to an idea of the way things are that is based purely on the way they would like things to be, or the way they imagine things to be, or even the way they remember that things used to be. They are impervious to anything that contradicts this, even if it is meticulously factual and supported by evidence from sources that they would normally regard as authoritative.
    Very true. The shoplifting argument was vivid evidence of this

    The blinkered centrist Dads insisting it's "always been like this", "I worked in retail a decade ago, nothing has changed"

    This despite PBers offering personal lived experience

    Even when we showed the Centrist Dads the actual hard evidence - a ten fold increase in shoplifting in ten years, according to the Economist - they then claimed they'd always accepted this, or they pretended that it was some statistical anomaly
    Though there is a facile enjoyment in turning the ghastly phrases of the woke against them, I can't get on board with using 'lived experience', even in semi-jest.
    I am in two mind. I despise anything and everything to do with Wokeness and the Woke (I'm sorry if this comes as a shock), however I believe the phrase "lived experience" is actually useful, and captures something particular which is not quite captured by the simple word "experience"
    "Real experience" is probably the phrase that would have been used a few years or decades back to convey the same thing.
    "First hand" or "direct" experience is probably how we would have described it in the past, but ours is an evolving language.
    But "lived" is better. "Lived experience" says:

    *this is something I have personally witnessed or experienced in my life, which has impacted my life*

    I hate to admit the Woke have created a useful phrase - but they have
    In my experience...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,690
    Eabhal said:

    Foxy said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    That's harsh but it's fair in two respects. He does lack charisma and he's a manager not a visionary. However a charismatic persona and a grand vision are imo overrated in politics compared to competence and good intentions. I'd always take the latter. And it's what we need. We're a free and prosperous country which could be better in many respects, not a broken shithole of a place.
    I agree on that. Britain is a lovely place to be on a day like this.

    I think the doom and gloom is heavily overdone by those plastic patriots determined to talk down the country.
    I've noticed a tendency among the kind of people who like to complain about misinformation to stubbornly cling to an idea of the way things are that is based purely on the way they would like things to be, or the way they imagine things to be, or even the way they remember that things used to be. They are impervious to anything that contradicts this, even if it is meticulously factual and supported by evidence from sources that they would normally regard as authoritative.
    Very true. The shoplifting argument was vivid evidence of this

    The blinkered centrist Dads insisting it's "always been like this", "I worked in retail a decade ago, nothing has changed"

    This despite PBers offering personal lived experience

    Even when we showed the Centrist Dads the actual hard evidence - a ten fold increase in shoplifting in ten years, according to the Economist - they then claimed they'd always accepted this, or they pretended that it was some statistical anomaly
    Lived experience v lived experience.

    You mentioned bike thefts earlier - that's another thing that's being going on forever, the police rarely do anything, yet has dropped off quite a bit according to the crime survey.
    Thefts are down over the last 2 decades, as are violent crimes, homicides and criminal damage.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/bulletins/crimeinenglandandwales/yearendingseptember2024#:~:text=4.5% of people aged 16,people) had experienced sexual assault

    Burglary has one of the steepest drops, down over 66% over the last 2 decades.

    Patterns of crime change over time. Part of the rise in shoplifting and fall in burglary is because it has become increasingly hard to sell on items like TVs etc, and also physically harder to nick big screens. Fewer people have HiFi either, and few keep cash at home. Nicking and reselling food and booze from supermarkets etc is easier, particularly when there are so few staff on the floor and tills. Mobile phones are amongst the exceptions as relatively easily sold on. Druggies need to finance their habits somehow.
    Are those figures from reported crime or crime actually dealt with by the police?
    The report is both. What Foxy states is based on the survey if crime that people have experienced.
    Ah, thanks. So 'real' crime then; not police statistics.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,533

    Foxy said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    That's harsh but it's fair in two respects. He does lack charisma and he's a manager not a visionary. However a charismatic persona and a grand vision are imo overrated in politics compared to competence and good intentions. I'd always take the latter. And it's what we need. We're a free and prosperous country which could be better in many respects, not a broken shithole of a place.
    I agree on that. Britain is a lovely place to be on a day like this.

    I think the doom and gloom is heavily overdone by those plastic patriots determined to talk down the country.
    I've noticed a tendency among the kind of people who like to complain about misinformation to stubbornly cling to an idea of the way things are that is based purely on the way they would like things to be, or the way they imagine things to be, or even the way they remember that things used to be. They are impervious to anything that contradicts this, even if it is meticulously factual and supported by evidence from sources that they would normally regard as authoritative.
    Very true. The shoplifting argument was vivid evidence of this

    The blinkered centrist Dads insisting it's "always been like this", "I worked in retail a decade ago, nothing has changed"

    This despite PBers offering personal lived experience

    Even when we showed the Centrist Dads the actual hard evidence - a ten fold increase in shoplifting in ten years, according to the Economist - they then claimed they'd always accepted this, or they pretended that it was some statistical anomaly
    Lived experience v lived experience.

    You mentioned bike thefts earlier - that's another thing that's being going on forever, the police rarely do anything, yet has dropped off quite a bit according to the crime survey.
    Thefts are down over the last 2 decades, as are violent crimes, homicides and criminal damage.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/bulletins/crimeinenglandandwales/yearendingseptember2024#:~:text=4.5% of people aged 16,people) had experienced sexual assault

    Burglary has one of the steepest drops, down over 66% over the last 2 decades.

    Patterns of crime change over time. Part of the rise in shoplifting and fall in burglary is because it has become increasingly hard to sell on items like TVs etc, and also physically harder to nick big screens. Fewer people have HiFi either, and few keep cash at home. Nicking and reselling food and booze from supermarkets etc is easier, particularly when there are so few staff on the floor and tills. Mobile phones are amongst the exceptions as relatively easily sold on. Druggies need to finance their habits somehow.
    Are those figures from reported crime or crime actually dealt with by the police?
    The link is to the ONS National Crime Survey, which is particularly good at picking up minor crimes that aren't reported, like criminal damage.

    The drop in burglary is from actual recorded cases to the police.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/956906/burglaries-in-england-and-wales/
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,932
    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    That's harsh but it's fair in two respects. He does lack charisma and he's a manager not a visionary. However a charismatic persona and a grand vision are imo overrated in politics compared to competence and good intentions. I'd always take the latter. And it's what we need. We're a free and prosperous country which could be better in many respects, not a broken shithole of a place.
    I agree on that. Britain is a lovely place to be on a day like this.

    I think the doom and gloom is heavily overdone by those plastic patriots determined to talk down the country.
    I've noticed a tendency among the kind of people who like to complain about misinformation to stubbornly cling to an idea of the way things are that is based purely on the way they would like things to be, or the way they imagine things to be, or even the way they remember that things used to be. They are impervious to anything that contradicts this, even if it is meticulously factual and supported by evidence from sources that they would normally regard as authoritative.
    Very true. The shoplifting argument was vivid evidence of this

    The blinkered centrist Dads insisting it's "always been like this", "I worked in retail a decade ago, nothing has changed"

    This despite PBers offering personal lived experience

    Even when we showed the Centrist Dads the actual hard evidence - a ten fold increase in shoplifting in ten years, according to the Economist - they then claimed they'd always accepted this, or they pretended that it was some statistical anomaly
    Same with immigration; centrist Dads are defending numbers they’d never have believed possible a decade ago, and calling people who want a return to coalition style figures of 250k ‘Fascists’
    Centrist Dads?

    or

    Radical Left Lunatics?

    I is confused :lol:
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,747
    rcs1000 said:

    In fairness, the new Pope was on RTÉ's list of 16 possible winners, so it wasn't a complete bolt from the blue.

    https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2025/0507/1511412-vatican-conclave-pope/

    He was in the NY Times top 6 list too.
    I would have bet a small amount on him, had I known about the Vance twitter spat.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,492
    isam said:

    Jonathan Reynolds on 7 April: no US deal is worth it if the 10% tariffs stay.

    Jonathan Reynolds yesterday: It’s a great deal!

    The man who didn’t realise for 20 years that he wasn’t a qualified solicitor is now running Britain’s global trade 😐

    God help us.


    https://x.com/kemibadenoch/status/1920791259343409594?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Not bad from the Kemimeister.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,424

    isam said:

    Jonathan Reynolds on 7 April: no US deal is worth it if the 10% tariffs stay.

    Jonathan Reynolds yesterday: It’s a great deal!

    The man who didn’t realise for 20 years that he wasn’t a qualified solicitor is now running Britain’s global trade 😐

    God help us.


    https://x.com/kemibadenoch/status/1920791259343409594?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Not bad from the Kemimeister.
    Too much sass.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,024
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    That's harsh but it's fair in two respects. He does lack charisma and he's a manager not a visionary. However a charismatic persona and a grand vision are imo overrated in politics compared to competence and good intentions. I'd always take the latter. And it's what we need. We're a free and prosperous country which could be better in many respects, not a broken shithole of a place.
    I agree on that. Britain is a lovely place to be on a day like this.

    I think the doom and gloom is heavily overdone by those plastic patriots determined to talk down the country.
    I've noticed a tendency among the kind of people who like to complain about misinformation to stubbornly cling to an idea of the way things are that is based purely on the way they would like things to be, or the way they imagine things to be, or even the way they remember that things used to be. They are impervious to anything that contradicts this, even if it is meticulously factual and supported by evidence from sources that they would normally regard as authoritative.
    Very true. The shoplifting argument was vivid evidence of this

    The blinkered centrist Dads insisting it's "always been like this", "I worked in retail a decade ago, nothing has changed"

    This despite PBers offering personal lived experience

    Even when we showed the Centrist Dads the actual hard evidence - a ten fold increase in shoplifting in ten years, according to the Economist - they then claimed they'd always accepted this, or they pretended that it was some statistical anomaly
    Though there is a facile enjoyment in turning the ghastly phrases of the woke against them, I can't get on board with using 'lived experience', even in semi-jest.
    I am in two mind. I despise anything and everything to do with Wokeness and the Woke (I'm sorry if this comes as a shock), however I believe the phrase "lived experience" is actually useful, and captures something particular which is not quite captured by the simple word "experience"
    "Real experience" is probably the phrase that would have been used a few years or decades back to convey the same thing.
    "First hand" or "direct" experience is probably how we would have described it in the past, but ours is an evolving language.
    But "lived" is better. "Lived experience" says:

    *this is something I have personally witnessed or experienced in my life, which has impacted my life*

    I hate to admit the Woke have created a useful phrase - but they have
    There's loads. White Privilege is my favourite in a crowded field. It precisely nails something that is omnipresent but was previously (afaik) undescribed, at least not so pertly.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,398
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:



    I’ll still be shopping at Tesco, going swimming sometimes, nibbling nuts in the afternoon, drinking red wine from a sherry glass, I’ll still be doing these same things, but I’ll be doing them in a world that has changed.

    This is faintly tragic, and also ever so slightly provincial, and non-U. But, then again, you are a retired accountant.

    I agree the post WWII world is now over. VE Day 80 didn't have the spark it should, and it's just moving into history now.
    That was my point - and more specifically 'feeling' it as opposed to understanding it in the abstract.

    Always a point to my contributions. I'm never just prattling away for the sake of it.
    I now have a weird image in my head of a not terribly old, but fading fast, retired accountant, with his slippers on, and on a reclining SCS leather armchair, sipping some cheap red plonk out of a sherry glass, whilst watching re-runs of Poirot and a Stennah Stairlift brochure on his lap.
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does the centre-left have any explanations for why Ref is doing so well atm, (other than they're a bunch of thickos, bigots, etc)?

    Yes.
    They are offering attractive yet simplistic and unworkable solutions at a time of economic difficulty.
    As a non-lefty right of centre one time One Nation Tory who voted Remain (and genuinely loathes Farage), I think I have come to a conclusion as to why some vote Reform. It is simply that they are pissed off. Pissed off with the woke rachet, where they perceive that greater credence is given to immigrants, where statues of historic figures are torn down and those responsible are not prosecuted, where one might be cancelled for stating something that someone else decides is not the modern perspective, where policemen will arrest you for the mildest of "crimes", or perhaps for defending your own property, but real thugs thieves and burglars seem to get off scot-free, because the police claim they do not "have the resources". These are the types of reasons. Mainstream politician need to address them.
    The problem with tackling those "issues" is made more difficult because they are right wing Social Media urban myths. The truth is too boring for the click bait circuit.
    You think it’s a social media urban myth that the police aren’t bothering to investigate phone theft and bike theft and car theft? And shoplifting?
    The government has now said the police must investigate thefts under £200
    This government says a lot and does less than zero

    Remember SMASH THE GANGS

    It's so risible it's mortifying. I notice Sir Beer Korma has largely stopped saying "we're going to SMASH THE GANGS" presumably because everyone would laugh at him with scornful contempt
    Well I suppose it has to ensure it has enough prison places for senders of abusive tweets and Koran burners before jailing shoplifters and gang members
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/05/08/man-who-burned-koran-faces-charges-for-harassing-islam/
    But remember we don't have a blasphemy law protecting Islam... you just get arrested and prosecuted and go on trial if you burn a Koran. It's completely different
    He has been charged under the Public Order Act for causing 'anxiety and distress' to Muslims in public.

    In which case can we monarchists get the police to arrest Smith and his Republic 'Not My King' placard wavers as they are causing us and no doubt the King 'anxiety and distress' when protesting in public too?
    Likewise, they need to arrest every single marcher on every pro-Palestinian march, for causing "anxiety and distress" to Jews

    But of course they won't do that, Our new blasphemy law only applies to Islam, largely because some adherents of the Religion of Peace have a tendency to behead people

    I applaud Jenrick for wading in on this. He speaks articulately. The Tories really need to dump Badenoch and install Jenrick ASAFP. She's not going to miraculously improve, she is what she is: likewable but lightweight, not as smart as she believes, bad at thinking on her feet, too immersed in the Twitterverse

    Jenrick might just POSSIBLY move the dial, given the chance
    Yes, if you are going to arrest people under the Public Order Act for political statements or actions which cause no physical harm in public then you need to arrest leftwingers as well as rightwingers, otherwise the police just risk being seen as Starmer's woke regime's enforcers.

    As for the Conservatives, Jenrick is articulate but only Boris would move the dial.

    More In Common last week found that 20% would vote Conservative with Jenrick, actually 1% less than the 21% who would do so with Badenoch with Reform's lead over the Tories falling by a mere 1% too.

    Only Boris shifted the dial, with a Johnson return taking the Conservatives to 26% but even then that would still only be most seats in a hung parliament with Reform still on 23% even against Boris, Labour on just 22% and the LDs on 15%

    https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/2cyg5l1m/more-in-common-post-election-briefing-4.pdf (p48)
    MiC found too that if Cameron returned as Tory leader the Tories would still only be up 1% to 22% with Reform on 26%.

    Rishi actually did a bit better with the Tories on 24%, tied with Reform, even if not taking the lead as Boris would.

    Truss returning though would see the Tories collapse to just 9%

    https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/2cyg5l1m/more-in-common-post-election-briefing-4.pdf (p50)
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,492
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    That's harsh but it's fair in two respects. He does lack charisma and he's a manager not a visionary. However a charismatic persona and a grand vision are imo overrated in politics compared to competence and good intentions. I'd always take the latter. And it's what we need. We're a free and prosperous country which could be better in many respects, not a broken shithole of a place.
    I agree on that. Britain is a lovely place to be on a day like this.

    I think the doom and gloom is heavily overdone by those plastic patriots determined to talk down the country.
    I've noticed a tendency among the kind of people who like to complain about misinformation to stubbornly cling to an idea of the way things are that is based purely on the way they would like things to be, or the way they imagine things to be, or even the way they remember that things used to be. They are impervious to anything that contradicts this, even if it is meticulously factual and supported by evidence from sources that they would normally regard as authoritative.
    Very true. The shoplifting argument was vivid evidence of this

    The blinkered centrist Dads insisting it's "always been like this", "I worked in retail a decade ago, nothing has changed"

    This despite PBers offering personal lived experience

    Even when we showed the Centrist Dads the actual hard evidence - a ten fold increase in shoplifting in ten years, according to the Economist - they then claimed they'd always accepted this, or they pretended that it was some statistical anomaly
    Though there is a facile enjoyment in turning the ghastly phrases of the woke against them, I can't get on board with using 'lived experience', even in semi-jest.
    I am in two minds. I despise anything and everything to do with Wokeness and the Woke (I'm sorry if this comes as a shock), however I believe the phrase "lived experience" is actually useful, and captures something particular which is not quite captured by the simple word "experience"
    That is because the Gazette pays its columnists by the word.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,747
    kinabalu said:

    So, back to back trade deals with the biggie (the EU) to come in the next couple of weeks. Is SKS starting to rock and roll? Let’s hope so. He’s a good man and he’s our PM. When he does well, so do we all.

    Although something less sunny is on my mind this morning - the realisation that the world as framed by WW2 is fading out. Ok, I’ve read about this from the likes of Niall Ferguson and Max Hastings in the papers, but all of a sudden (and I’m not sure what’s brought this on) what strikes me is that this world that’s ending has been *my* world. The period in which I’ve lived the whole of my 64 years is over. It’s over. If this doesn’t merit the word “poignant” I don’t know what does. I’ll still be shopping at Tesco, going swimming sometimes, nibbling nuts in the afternoon, drinking red wine from a sherry glass, I’ll still be doing these same things, but I’ll be doing them in a world that has changed.

    I hope it doesn't change. I don't think people have changed that much, it's just that politicians have recently messed things up in a way they didn't in the 60s/70s/80s/90s.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,165
    rcs1000 said:

    In fairness, the new Pope was on RTÉ's list of 16 possible winners, so it wasn't a complete bolt from the blue.

    https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2025/0507/1511412-vatican-conclave-pope/

    He was in the NY Times top 6 list too.
    Frankly, if we'd twigged that Francis' hand picked, centrist HR manager was a 50/1 outsider, some of us might have had a punt on him.

    As it was, I noted TSE's remarks about "the ultimate insider market", and ignored the whole thing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,398

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    That's harsh but it's fair in two respects. He does lack charisma and he's a manager not a visionary. However a charismatic persona and a grand vision are imo overrated in politics compared to competence and good intentions. I'd always take the latter. And it's what we need. We're a free and prosperous country which could be better in many respects, not a broken shithole of a place.
    I agree on that. Britain is a lovely place to be on a day like this.

    I think the doom and gloom is heavily overdone by those plastic patriots determined to talk down the country.
    I've noticed a tendency among the kind of people who like to complain about misinformation to stubbornly cling to an idea of the way things are that is based purely on the way they would like things to be, or the way they imagine things to be, or even the way they remember that things used to be. They are impervious to anything that contradicts this, even if it is meticulously factual and supported by evidence from sources that they would normally regard as authoritative.
    Very true. The shoplifting argument was vivid evidence of this

    The blinkered centrist Dads insisting it's "always been like this", "I worked in retail a decade ago, nothing has changed"

    This despite PBers offering personal lived experience

    Even when we showed the Centrist Dads the actual hard evidence - a ten fold increase in shoplifting in ten years, according to the Economist - they then claimed they'd always accepted this, or they pretended that it was some statistical anomaly
    Same with immigration; centrist Dads are defending numbers they’d never have believed possible a decade ago, and calling people who want a return to coalition style figures of 250k ‘Fascists’
    Are they? I have genuinely no idea why the Tories (hardly centrist dads) presided over such a huge rise in net migration and I've literally not heard anyone on the centre left say that it was great. Indeed, most have simply pointed out the irony that it was Brexit that seems to have facilitated the surge. I mean, it is pretty funny.
    Personally I don't have strong feelings about immigration. I would just like to have a system that is fair and humane and balances competing imperatives of the labour market, fairness for existing workers, pressure on housing and infrastructure, allowing universities to meet global demand from students, and international obligations to help refugees. People on here bang on about it too much though, it's getting boring.
    Immigration is now starting to fall net after Rishi raised the wage requirement for visas and cut the ability of dependents to come in too
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,492
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    That's harsh but it's fair in two respects. He does lack charisma and he's a manager not a visionary. However a charismatic persona and a grand vision are imo overrated in politics compared to competence and good intentions. I'd always take the latter. And it's what we need. We're a free and prosperous country which could be better in many respects, not a broken shithole of a place.
    I agree on that. Britain is a lovely place to be on a day like this.

    I think the doom and gloom is heavily overdone by those plastic patriots determined to talk down the country.
    I've noticed a tendency among the kind of people who like to complain about misinformation to stubbornly cling to an idea of the way things are that is based purely on the way they would like things to be, or the way they imagine things to be, or even the way they remember that things used to be. They are impervious to anything that contradicts this, even if it is meticulously factual and supported by evidence from sources that they would normally regard as authoritative.
    Very true. The shoplifting argument was vivid evidence of this

    The blinkered centrist Dads insisting it's "always been like this", "I worked in retail a decade ago, nothing has changed"

    This despite PBers offering personal lived experience

    Even when we showed the Centrist Dads the actual hard evidence - a ten fold increase in shoplifting in ten years, according to the Economist - they then claimed they'd always accepted this, or they pretended that it was some statistical anomaly
    Lived experience v lived experience.

    You mentioned bike thefts earlier - that's another thing that's being going on forever, the police rarely do anything, yet has dropped off quite a bit according to the crime survey.
    Thefts are down over the last 2 decades, as are violent crimes, homicides and criminal damage.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/bulletins/crimeinenglandandwales/yearendingseptember2024#:~:text=4.5% of people aged 16,people) had experienced sexual assault

    Burglary has one of the steepest drops, down over 66% over the last 2 decades.

    Patterns of crime change over time. Part of the rise in shoplifting and fall in burglary is because it has become increasingly hard to sell on items like TVs etc, and also physically harder to nick big screens. Fewer people have HiFi either, and few keep cash at home. Nicking and reselling food and booze from supermarkets etc is easier, particularly when there are so few staff on the floor and tills. Mobile phones are amongst the exceptions as relatively easily sold on. Druggies need to finance their habits somehow.
    Are those figures from reported crime or crime actually dealt with by the police?
    The link is to the ONS National Crime Survey, which is particularly good at picking up minor crimes that aren't reported, like criminal damage.

    The drop in burglary is from actual recorded cases to the police.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/956906/burglaries-in-england-and-wales/
    Here's the London crime map, for PBers who can't afford Damien Hirst's spot paintings. You can untick various crimes on the right.
    https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/nick.black4982/viz/LondonCrimeMap_17465246104090/LondonMarch?publish=yes
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,795
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:



    I’ll still be shopping at Tesco, going swimming sometimes, nibbling nuts in the afternoon, drinking red wine from a sherry glass, I’ll still be doing these same things, but I’ll be doing them in a world that has changed.

    This is faintly tragic, and also ever so slightly provincial, and non-U. But, then again, you are a retired accountant.

    I agree the post WWII world is now over. VE Day 80 didn't have the spark it should, and it's just moving into history now.
    That was my point - and more specifically 'feeling' it as opposed to understanding it in the abstract.

    Always a point to my contributions. I'm never just prattling away for the sake of it.
    I now have a weird image in my head of a not terribly old, but fading fast, retired accountant, with his slippers on, and on a reclining SCS leather armchair, sipping some cheap red plonk out of a sherry glass, whilst watching re-runs of Poirot and a Stennah Stairlift brochure on his lap.
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does the centre-left have any explanations for why Ref is doing so well atm, (other than they're a bunch of thickos, bigots, etc)?

    Yes.
    They are offering attractive yet simplistic and unworkable solutions at a time of economic difficulty.
    As a non-lefty right of centre one time One Nation Tory who voted Remain (and genuinely loathes Farage), I think I have come to a conclusion as to why some vote Reform. It is simply that they are pissed off. Pissed off with the woke rachet, where they perceive that greater credence is given to immigrants, where statues of historic figures are torn down and those responsible are not prosecuted, where one might be cancelled for stating something that someone else decides is not the modern perspective, where policemen will arrest you for the mildest of "crimes", or perhaps for defending your own property, but real thugs thieves and burglars seem to get off scot-free, because the police claim they do not "have the resources". These are the types of reasons. Mainstream politician need to address them.
    The problem with tackling those "issues" is made more difficult because they are right wing Social Media urban myths. The truth is too boring for the click bait circuit.
    You think it’s a social media urban myth that the police aren’t bothering to investigate phone theft and bike theft and car theft? And shoplifting?
    The government has now said the police must investigate thefts under £200
    This government says a lot and does less than zero

    Remember SMASH THE GANGS

    It's so risible it's mortifying. I notice Sir Beer Korma has largely stopped saying "we're going to SMASH THE GANGS" presumably because everyone would laugh at him with scornful contempt
    Well I suppose it has to ensure it has enough prison places for senders of abusive tweets and Koran burners before jailing shoplifters and gang members
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/05/08/man-who-burned-koran-faces-charges-for-harassing-islam/
    But remember we don't have a blasphemy law protecting Islam... you just get arrested and prosecuted and go on trial if you burn a Koran. It's completely different
    He has been charged under the Public Order Act for causing 'anxiety and distress' to Muslims in public.

    In which case can we monarchists get the police to arrest Smith and his Republic 'Not My King' placard wavers as they are causing us and no doubt the King 'anxiety and distress' when protesting in public too?
    Likewise, they need to arrest every single marcher on every pro-Palestinian march, for causing "anxiety and distress" to Jews

    But of course they won't do that, Our new blasphemy law only applies to Islam, largely because some adherents of the Religion of Peace have a tendency to behead people

    I applaud Jenrick for wading in on this. He speaks articulately. The Tories really need to dump Badenoch and install Jenrick ASAFP. She's not going to miraculously improve, she is what she is: likewable but lightweight, not as smart as she believes, bad at thinking on her feet, too immersed in the Twitterverse

    Jenrick might just POSSIBLY move the dial, given the chance
    Yes, if you are going to arrest people under the Public Order Act for political statements or actions which cause no physical harm in public then you need to arrest leftwingers as well as rightwingers, otherwise the police just risk being seen as Starmer's woke regime's enforcers.

    As for the Conservatives, Jenrick is articulate but only Boris would move the dial.

    More In Common last week found that 20% would vote Conservative with Jenrick, actually 1% less than the 21% who would do so with Badenoch with Reform's lead over the Tories falling by a mere 1% too.

    Only Boris shifted the dial, with a Johnson return taking the Conservatives to 26% but even then that would still only be most seats in a hung parliament with Reform still on 23% even against Boris, Labour on just 22% and the LDs on 15%

    https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/2cyg5l1m/more-in-common-post-election-briefing-4.pdf (p48)
    I wouldn't vote Conservative if Jenrick was leader.

    I'll probably go through the motions for Kemi. If only to keep out Farage. (I see Jenrick and Farage as cheeks of the same arse.)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,024
    Andy_JS said:

    kinabalu said:

    So, back to back trade deals with the biggie (the EU) to come in the next couple of weeks. Is SKS starting to rock and roll? Let’s hope so. He’s a good man and he’s our PM. When he does well, so do we all.

    Although something less sunny is on my mind this morning - the realisation that the world as framed by WW2 is fading out. Ok, I’ve read about this from the likes of Niall Ferguson and Max Hastings in the papers, but all of a sudden (and I’m not sure what’s brought this on) what strikes me is that this world that’s ending has been *my* world. The period in which I’ve lived the whole of my 64 years is over. It’s over. If this doesn’t merit the word “poignant” I don’t know what does. I’ll still be shopping at Tesco, going swimming sometimes, nibbling nuts in the afternoon, drinking red wine from a sherry glass, I’ll still be doing these same things, but I’ll be doing them in a world that has changed.

    I hope it doesn't change. I don't think people have changed that much, it's just that politicians have recently messed things up in a way they didn't in the 60s/70s/80s/90s.
    It's mainly Trump2, I'd say. 5/11 will turn out to be as seismically bad an event as 9/11 imo.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,048
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    Question for the panel. On current form the 2029 election will be mega on the need for tactical voting. Is there a fairly simple formula covering most seats in England (S and W is too hard for me to think about) which guides as to how to vote tactically against Reform, for people who don't have a PhD in psephology?

    Eg for starters:
    In all seats where LDs are first or second, vote LD
    In all seats where Labour is first vote Labour
    In all seats where Tory is first and LD not second, just guess at random

    Would that be enough?

    No, in the latter scenario like my seat where Tories are first and Reform were second at the GE you would have to vote Tory or get a Reform MP otherwise
    I believe you, but which constituency is that?
    I was trying to do some analysis of that sort of constituency and you'll be interested that the Perplexity AI told me:
    "There is no evidence from the official results or analyses that Reform UK came second to the Conservatives in any constituency where the Conservatives won"
    Brentwood and Ongar. So AI was wrong there


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001125
    Yeh, plausible but wrong, that's the trouble with AI.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,533
    edited May 9
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    That's harsh but it's fair in two respects. He does lack charisma and he's a manager not a visionary. However a charismatic persona and a grand vision are imo overrated in politics compared to competence and good intentions. I'd always take the latter. And it's what we need. We're a free and prosperous country which could be better in many respects, not a broken shithole of a place.
    I agree on that. Britain is a lovely place to be on a day like this.

    I think the doom and gloom is heavily overdone by those plastic patriots determined to talk down the country.
    I've noticed a tendency among the kind of people who like to complain about misinformation to stubbornly cling to an idea of the way things are that is based purely on the way they would like things to be, or the way they imagine things to be, or even the way they remember that things used to be. They are impervious to anything that contradicts this, even if it is meticulously factual and supported by evidence from sources that they would normally regard as authoritative.
    Very true. The shoplifting argument was vivid evidence of this

    The blinkered centrist Dads insisting it's "always been like this", "I worked in retail a decade ago, nothing has changed"

    This despite PBers offering personal lived experience

    Even when we showed the Centrist Dads the actual hard evidence - a ten fold increase in shoplifting in ten years, according to the Economist - they then claimed they'd always accepted this, or they pretended that it was some statistical anomaly
    Though there is a facile enjoyment in turning the ghastly phrases of the woke against them, I can't get on board with using 'lived experience', even in semi-jest.
    I am in two mind. I despise anything and everything to do with Wokeness and the Woke (I'm sorry if this comes as a shock), however I believe the phrase "lived experience" is actually useful, and captures something particular which is not quite captured by the simple word "experience"
    "Real experience" is probably the phrase that would have been used a few years or decades back to convey the same thing.
    "First hand" or "direct" experience is probably how we would have described it in the past, but ours is an evolving language.
    But "lived" is better. "Lived experience" says:

    *this is something I have personally witnessed or experienced in my life, which has impacted my life*

    I hate to admit the Woke have created a useful phrase - but they have
    There's loads. White Privilege is my favourite in a crowded field. It precisely nails something that is omnipresent but was previously (afaik) undescribed, at least not so pertly.
    I am musing on a header that I have provisionally titled:

    "White Privilege, Slavery Reparations and Intersectionality"

    I hope that is clickbaity enough for the Mods 😅
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,690
    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    That's harsh but it's fair in two respects. He does lack charisma and he's a manager not a visionary. However a charismatic persona and a grand vision are imo overrated in politics compared to competence and good intentions. I'd always take the latter. And it's what we need. We're a free and prosperous country which could be better in many respects, not a broken shithole of a place.
    I agree on that. Britain is a lovely place to be on a day like this.

    I think the doom and gloom is heavily overdone by those plastic patriots determined to talk down the country.
    I've noticed a tendency among the kind of people who like to complain about misinformation to stubbornly cling to an idea of the way things are that is based purely on the way they would like things to be, or the way they imagine things to be, or even the way they remember that things used to be. They are impervious to anything that contradicts this, even if it is meticulously factual and supported by evidence from sources that they would normally regard as authoritative.
    Very true. The shoplifting argument was vivid evidence of this

    The blinkered centrist Dads insisting it's "always been like this", "I worked in retail a decade ago, nothing has changed"

    This despite PBers offering personal lived experience

    Even when we showed the Centrist Dads the actual hard evidence - a ten fold increase in shoplifting in ten years, according to the Economist - they then claimed they'd always accepted this, or they pretended that it was some statistical anomaly
    Same with immigration; centrist Dads are defending numbers they’d never have believed possible a decade ago, and calling people who want a return to coalition style figures of 250k ‘Fascists’
    Are they? I have genuinely no idea why the Tories (hardly centrist dads) presided over such a huge rise in net migration and I've literally not heard anyone on the centre left say that it was great. Indeed, most have simply pointed out the irony that it was Brexit that seems to have facilitated the surge. I mean, it is pretty funny.
    Personally I don't have strong feelings about immigration. I would just like to have a system that is fair and humane and balances competing imperatives of the labour market, fairness for existing workers, pressure on housing and infrastructure, allowing universities to meet global demand from students, and international obligations to help refugees. People on here bang on about it too much though, it's getting boring.
    Immigration is now starting to fall net after Rishi raised the wage requirement for visas and cut the ability of dependents to come in too
    Ironically among the skills we need is that of care workers and nurses who are paid nowhere near the levels Rishi set. Especially care workers.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,414
    edited May 9
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    That's harsh but it's fair in two respects. He does lack charisma and he's a manager not a visionary. However a charismatic persona and a grand vision are imo overrated in politics compared to competence and good intentions. I'd always take the latter. And it's what we need. We're a free and prosperous country which could be better in many respects, not a broken shithole of a place.
    I agree on that. Britain is a lovely place to be on a day like this.

    I think the doom and gloom is heavily overdone by those plastic patriots determined to talk down the country.
    I've noticed a tendency among the kind of people who like to complain about misinformation to stubbornly cling to an idea of the way things are that is based purely on the way they would like things to be, or the way they imagine things to be, or even the way they remember that things used to be. They are impervious to anything that contradicts this, even if it is meticulously factual and supported by evidence from sources that they would normally regard as authoritative.
    Very true. The shoplifting argument was vivid evidence of this

    The blinkered centrist Dads insisting it's "always been like this", "I worked in retail a decade ago, nothing has changed"

    This despite PBers offering personal lived experience

    Even when we showed the Centrist Dads the actual hard evidence - a ten fold increase in shoplifting in ten years, according to the Economist - they then claimed they'd always accepted this, or they pretended that it was some statistical anomaly
    Lived experience v lived experience.

    You mentioned bike thefts earlier - that's another thing that's being going on forever, the police rarely do anything, yet has dropped off quite a bit according to the crime survey.
    Thefts are down over the last 2 decades, as are violent crimes, homicides and criminal damage.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/bulletins/crimeinenglandandwales/yearendingseptember2024#:~:text=4.5% of people aged 16,people) had experienced sexual assault

    Burglary has one of the steepest drops, down over 66% over the last 2 decades.

    Patterns of crime change over time. Part of the rise in shoplifting and fall in burglary is because it has become increasingly hard to sell on items like TVs etc, and also physically harder to nick big screens. Fewer people have HiFi either, and few keep cash at home. Nicking and reselling food and booze from supermarkets etc is easier, particularly when there are so few staff on the floor and tills. Mobile phones are amongst the exceptions as relatively easily sold on. Druggies need to finance their habits somehow.
    Are those figures from reported crime or crime actually dealt with by the police?
    The link is to the ONS National Crime Survey, which is particularly good at picking up minor crimes that aren't reported, like criminal damage.

    The drop in burglary is from actual recorded cases to the police.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/956906/burglaries-in-england-and-wales/
    A big drop in the survey too. I guess burglary is almost always reported.

    Bike theft is interesting because the survey and police records are moving roughly together. Again, that's probably because your insurer requires a police crime number before you get the payout, though it would require high value bikes to correlate with low value.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,171
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    That's harsh but it's fair in two respects. He does lack charisma and he's a manager not a visionary. However a charismatic persona and a grand vision are imo overrated in politics compared to competence and good intentions. I'd always take the latter. And it's what we need. We're a free and prosperous country which could be better in many respects, not a broken shithole of a place.
    I agree on that. Britain is a lovely place to be on a day like this.

    I think the doom and gloom is heavily overdone by those plastic patriots determined to talk down the country.
    I've noticed a tendency among the kind of people who like to complain about misinformation to stubbornly cling to an idea of the way things are that is based purely on the way they would like things to be, or the way they imagine things to be, or even the way they remember that things used to be. They are impervious to anything that contradicts this, even if it is meticulously factual and supported by evidence from sources that they would normally regard as authoritative.
    Very true. The shoplifting argument was vivid evidence of this

    The blinkered centrist Dads insisting it's "always been like this", "I worked in retail a decade ago, nothing has changed"

    This despite PBers offering personal lived experience

    Even when we showed the Centrist Dads the actual hard evidence - a ten fold increase in shoplifting in ten years, according to the Economist - they then claimed they'd always accepted this, or they pretended that it was some statistical anomaly
    Though there is a facile enjoyment in turning the ghastly phrases of the woke against them, I can't get on board with using 'lived experience', even in semi-jest.
    I am in two mind. I despise anything and everything to do with Wokeness and the Woke (I'm sorry if this comes as a shock), however I believe the phrase "lived experience" is actually useful, and captures something particular which is not quite captured by the simple word "experience"
    "Real experience" is probably the phrase that would have been used a few years or decades back to convey the same thing.
    "First hand" or "direct" experience is probably how we would have described it in the past, but ours is an evolving language.
    But "lived" is better. "Lived experience" says:

    *this is something I have personally witnessed or experienced in my life, which has impacted my life*

    I hate to admit the Woke have created a useful phrase - but they have
    There's loads. White Privilege is my favourite in a crowded field. It precisely nails something that is omnipresent but was previously (afaik) undescribed, at least not so pertly.
    Surely “woke” is the most widely adopted term invented by the woke and used by the anti-woke. And it’s meta, to boot.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,048

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    Question for the panel. On current form the 2029 election will be mega on the need for tactical voting. Is there a fairly simple formula covering most seats in England (S and W is too hard for me to think about) which guides as to how to vote tactically against Reform, for people who don't have a PhD in psephology?

    Eg for starters:
    In all seats where LDs are first or second, vote LD
    In all seats where Labour is first vote Labour
    In all seats where Tory is first and LD not second, just guess at random

    Would that be enough?

    No, in the latter scenario like my seat where Tories are first and Reform were second at the GE you would have to vote Tory or get a Reform MP otherwise
    I believe you, but which constituency is that?
    I was trying to do some analysis of that sort of constituency and you'll be interested that the Perplexity AI told me:
    "There is no evidence from the official results or analyses that Reform UK came second to the Conservatives in any constituency where the Conservatives won"
    Brentwood and Ongar. So AI was wrong there


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001125
    Yeh, plausible but wrong, that's the trouble with AI.
    When I pointed out the mistake, it said
    "Yes, there are others. According to the latest available data, there were nine constituencies in the 2024 general election where the Conservatives came first and Reform UK came second. Brentwood and Ongar is one of them.

    The full list of these constituencies is not provided in the search results, but it is confirmed that Brentwood and Ongar is among the nine, and that such cases are rare compared to the much larger number of seats where Reform UK came second to Labour (89 seats)"
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,165
    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    That's harsh but it's fair in two respects. He does lack charisma and he's a manager not a visionary. However a charismatic persona and a grand vision are imo overrated in politics compared to competence and good intentions. I'd always take the latter. And it's what we need. We're a free and prosperous country which could be better in many respects, not a broken shithole of a place.
    I agree on that. Britain is a lovely place to be on a day like this.

    I think the doom and gloom is heavily overdone by those plastic patriots determined to talk down the country.
    I've noticed a tendency among the kind of people who like to complain about misinformation to stubbornly cling to an idea of the way things are that is based purely on the way they would like things to be, or the way they imagine things to be, or even the way they remember that things used to be. They are impervious to anything that contradicts this, even if it is meticulously factual and supported by evidence from sources that they would normally regard as authoritative.
    Very true. The shoplifting argument was vivid evidence of this

    The blinkered centrist Dads insisting it's "always been like this", "I worked in retail a decade ago, nothing has changed"

    This despite PBers offering personal lived experience

    Even when we showed the Centrist Dads the actual hard evidence - a ten fold increase in shoplifting in ten years, according to the Economist - they then claimed they'd always accepted this, or they pretended that it was some statistical anomaly
    Though there is a facile enjoyment in turning the ghastly phrases of the woke against them, I can't get on board with using 'lived experience', even in semi-jest.
    I am in two mind. I despise anything and everything to do with Wokeness and the Woke (I'm sorry if this comes as a shock), however I believe the phrase "lived experience" is actually useful, and captures something particular which is not quite captured by the simple word "experience"
    "Real experience" is probably the phrase that would have been used a few years or decades back to convey the same thing.
    "First hand" or "direct" experience is probably how we would have described it in the past, but ours is an evolving language.
    But "lived" is better. "Lived experience" says:

    *this is something I have personally witnessed or experienced in my life, which has impacted my life*

    I hate to admit the Woke have created a useful phrase - but they have
    There's loads. White Privilege is my favourite in a crowded field. It precisely nails something that is omnipresent but was previously (afaik) undescribed, at least not so pertly.
    I am musing on a header that I have provisionally titled "White Privilege, Slavery Reparations and Intersectionality"

    I hope that is clickbaity enough for the Mods 😅
    Can't you work woke in there too ?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,926

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    That's harsh but it's fair in two respects. He does lack charisma and he's a manager not a visionary. However a charismatic persona and a grand vision are imo overrated in politics compared to competence and good intentions. I'd always take the latter. And it's what we need. We're a free and prosperous country which could be better in many respects, not a broken shithole of a place.
    I agree on that. Britain is a lovely place to be on a day like this.

    I think the doom and gloom is heavily overdone by those plastic patriots determined to talk down the country.
    I've noticed a tendency among the kind of people who like to complain about misinformation to stubbornly cling to an idea of the way things are that is based purely on the way they would like things to be, or the way they imagine things to be, or even the way they remember that things used to be. They are impervious to anything that contradicts this, even if it is meticulously factual and supported by evidence from sources that they would normally regard as authoritative.
    Very true. The shoplifting argument was vivid evidence of this

    The blinkered centrist Dads insisting it's "always been like this", "I worked in retail a decade ago, nothing has changed"

    This despite PBers offering personal lived experience

    Even when we showed the Centrist Dads the actual hard evidence - a ten fold increase in shoplifting in ten years, according to the Economist - they then claimed they'd always accepted this, or they pretended that it was some statistical anomaly
    Same with immigration; centrist Dads are defending numbers they’d never have believed possible a decade ago, and calling people who want a return to coalition style figures of 250k ‘Fascists’
    Are they? I have genuinely no idea why the Tories (hardly centrist dads) presided over such a huge rise in net migration and I've literally not heard anyone on the centre left say that it was great. Indeed, most have simply pointed out the irony that it was Brexit that seems to have facilitated the surge. I mean, it is pretty funny.
    Personally I don't have strong feelings about immigration. I would just like to have a system that is fair and humane and balances competing imperatives of the labour market, fairness for existing workers, pressure on housing and infrastructure, allowing universities to meet global demand from students, and international obligations to help refugees. People on here bang on about it too much though, it's getting boring.
    Immigration is now starting to fall net after Rishi raised the wage requirement for visas and cut the ability of dependents to come in too
    Ironically among the skills we need is that of care workers and nurses who are paid nowhere near the levels Rishi set. Especially care workers.
    Getting serious as a country and ponying up £16ph instead of £13ph for care workers is an alternative. It's not immigration or bust.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,533
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    That's harsh but it's fair in two respects. He does lack charisma and he's a manager not a visionary. However a charismatic persona and a grand vision are imo overrated in politics compared to competence and good intentions. I'd always take the latter. And it's what we need. We're a free and prosperous country which could be better in many respects, not a broken shithole of a place.
    I agree on that. Britain is a lovely place to be on a day like this.

    I think the doom and gloom is heavily overdone by those plastic patriots determined to talk down the country.
    I've noticed a tendency among the kind of people who like to complain about misinformation to stubbornly cling to an idea of the way things are that is based purely on the way they would like things to be, or the way they imagine things to be, or even the way they remember that things used to be. They are impervious to anything that contradicts this, even if it is meticulously factual and supported by evidence from sources that they would normally regard as authoritative.
    Very true. The shoplifting argument was vivid evidence of this

    The blinkered centrist Dads insisting it's "always been like this", "I worked in retail a decade ago, nothing has changed"

    This despite PBers offering personal lived experience

    Even when we showed the Centrist Dads the actual hard evidence - a ten fold increase in shoplifting in ten years, according to the Economist - they then claimed they'd always accepted this, or they pretended that it was some statistical anomaly
    Though there is a facile enjoyment in turning the ghastly phrases of the woke against them, I can't get on board with using 'lived experience', even in semi-jest.
    I am in two mind. I despise anything and everything to do with Wokeness and the Woke (I'm sorry if this comes as a shock), however I believe the phrase "lived experience" is actually useful, and captures something particular which is not quite captured by the simple word "experience"
    "Real experience" is probably the phrase that would have been used a few years or decades back to convey the same thing.
    "First hand" or "direct" experience is probably how we would have described it in the past, but ours is an evolving language.
    But "lived" is better. "Lived experience" says:

    *this is something I have personally witnessed or experienced in my life, which has impacted my life*

    I hate to admit the Woke have created a useful phrase - but they have
    There's loads. White Privilege is my favourite in a crowded field. It precisely nails something that is omnipresent but was previously (afaik) undescribed, at least not so pertly.
    I am musing on a header that I have provisionally titled "White Privilege, Slavery Reparations and Intersectionality"

    I hope that is clickbaity enough for the Mods 😅
    Can't you work woke in there too ?
    I am sure it will feature...
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,171

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:



    I’ll still be shopping at Tesco, going swimming sometimes, nibbling nuts in the afternoon, drinking red wine from a sherry glass, I’ll still be doing these same things, but I’ll be doing them in a world that has changed.

    This is faintly tragic, and also ever so slightly provincial, and non-U. But, then again, you are a retired accountant.

    I agree the post WWII world is now over. VE Day 80 didn't have the spark it should, and it's just moving into history now.
    That was my point - and more specifically 'feeling' it as opposed to understanding it in the abstract.

    Always a point to my contributions. I'm never just prattling away for the sake of it.
    I now have a weird image in my head of a not terribly old, but fading fast, retired accountant, with his slippers on, and on a reclining SCS leather armchair, sipping some cheap red plonk out of a sherry glass, whilst watching re-runs of Poirot and a Stennah Stairlift brochure on his lap.
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does the centre-left have any explanations for why Ref is doing so well atm, (other than they're a bunch of thickos, bigots, etc)?

    Yes.
    They are offering attractive yet simplistic and unworkable solutions at a time of economic difficulty.
    As a non-lefty right of centre one time One Nation Tory who voted Remain (and genuinely loathes Farage), I think I have come to a conclusion as to why some vote Reform. It is simply that they are pissed off. Pissed off with the woke rachet, where they perceive that greater credence is given to immigrants, where statues of historic figures are torn down and those responsible are not prosecuted, where one might be cancelled for stating something that someone else decides is not the modern perspective, where policemen will arrest you for the mildest of "crimes", or perhaps for defending your own property, but real thugs thieves and burglars seem to get off scot-free, because the police claim they do not "have the resources". These are the types of reasons. Mainstream politician need to address them.
    The problem with tackling those "issues" is made more difficult because they are right wing Social Media urban myths. The truth is too boring for the click bait circuit.
    You think it’s a social media urban myth that the police aren’t bothering to investigate phone theft and bike theft and car theft? And shoplifting?
    The government has now said the police must investigate thefts under £200
    This government says a lot and does less than zero

    Remember SMASH THE GANGS

    It's so risible it's mortifying. I notice Sir Beer Korma has largely stopped saying "we're going to SMASH THE GANGS" presumably because everyone would laugh at him with scornful contempt
    Well I suppose it has to ensure it has enough prison places for senders of abusive tweets and Koran burners before jailing shoplifters and gang members
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/05/08/man-who-burned-koran-faces-charges-for-harassing-islam/
    But remember we don't have a blasphemy law protecting Islam... you just get arrested and prosecuted and go on trial if you burn a Koran. It's completely different
    He has been charged under the Public Order Act for causing 'anxiety and distress' to Muslims in public.

    In which case can we monarchists get the police to arrest Smith and his Republic 'Not My King' placard wavers as they are causing us and no doubt the King 'anxiety and distress' when protesting in public too?
    Likewise, they need to arrest every single marcher on every pro-Palestinian march, for causing "anxiety and distress" to Jews

    But of course they won't do that, Our new blasphemy law only applies to Islam, largely because some adherents of the Religion of Peace have a tendency to behead people

    I applaud Jenrick for wading in on this. He speaks articulately. The Tories really need to dump Badenoch and install Jenrick ASAFP. She's not going to miraculously improve, she is what she is: likewable but lightweight, not as smart as she believes, bad at thinking on her feet, too immersed in the Twitterverse

    Jenrick might just POSSIBLY move the dial, given the chance
    Yes, if you are going to arrest people under the Public Order Act for political statements or actions which cause no physical harm in public then you need to arrest leftwingers as well as rightwingers, otherwise the police just risk being seen as Starmer's woke regime's enforcers.

    As for the Conservatives, Jenrick is articulate but only Boris would move the dial.

    More In Common last week found that 20% would vote Conservative with Jenrick, actually 1% less than the 21% who would do so with Badenoch with Reform's lead over the Tories falling by a mere 1% too.

    Only Boris shifted the dial, with a Johnson return taking the Conservatives to 26% but even then that would still only be most seats in a hung parliament with Reform still on 23% even against Boris, Labour on just 22% and the LDs on 15%

    https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/2cyg5l1m/more-in-common-post-election-briefing-4.pdf (p48)
    I wouldn't vote Conservative if Jenrick was leader.

    I'll probably go through the motions for Kemi. If only to keep out Farage. (I see Jenrick and Farage as cheeks of the same arse.)
    What proportion of current Conservatives will move their vote to Reform if it becomes the principal party of the right? It’s an interesting question.

    Judging by the demographic on PB, and reading between the lines, I’d guess something like:

    7/10 switch to reform
    2/10 stick to conservative if Kemi or say Cleverly is leader
    1/10 switch to Lib Dems or others

    Unless Jenrick becomes leader and goes all out MAGA, in which case

    6/10 go to Reform
    2/10 stick Tory
    2/10 go to Lib Dems
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,747
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:



    I’ll still be shopping at Tesco, going swimming sometimes, nibbling nuts in the afternoon, drinking red wine from a sherry glass, I’ll still be doing these same things, but I’ll be doing them in a world that has changed.

    This is faintly tragic, and also ever so slightly provincial, and non-U. But, then again, you are a retired accountant.

    I agree the post WWII world is now over. VE Day 80 didn't have the spark it should, and it's just moving into history now.
    That was my point - and more specifically 'feeling' it as opposed to understanding it in the abstract.

    Always a point to my contributions. I'm never just prattling away for the sake of it.
    I now have a weird image in my head of a not terribly old, but fading fast, retired accountant, with his slippers on, and on a reclining SCS leather armchair, sipping some cheap red plonk out of a sherry glass, whilst watching re-runs of Poirot and a Stennah Stairlift brochure on his lap.
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does the centre-left have any explanations for why Ref is doing so well atm, (other than they're a bunch of thickos, bigots, etc)?

    Yes.
    They are offering attractive yet simplistic and unworkable solutions at a time of economic difficulty.
    As a non-lefty right of centre one time One Nation Tory who voted Remain (and genuinely loathes Farage), I think I have come to a conclusion as to why some vote Reform. It is simply that they are pissed off. Pissed off with the woke rachet, where they perceive that greater credence is given to immigrants, where statues of historic figures are torn down and those responsible are not prosecuted, where one might be cancelled for stating something that someone else decides is not the modern perspective, where policemen will arrest you for the mildest of "crimes", or perhaps for defending your own property, but real thugs thieves and burglars seem to get off scot-free, because the police claim they do not "have the resources". These are the types of reasons. Mainstream politician need to address them.
    The problem with tackling those "issues" is made more difficult because they are right wing Social Media urban myths. The truth is too boring for the click bait circuit.
    You think it’s a social media urban myth that the police aren’t bothering to investigate phone theft and bike theft and car theft? And shoplifting?
    The government has now said the police must investigate thefts under £200
    This government says a lot and does less than zero

    Remember SMASH THE GANGS

    It's so risible it's mortifying. I notice Sir Beer Korma has largely stopped saying "we're going to SMASH THE GANGS" presumably because everyone would laugh at him with scornful contempt
    Well I suppose it has to ensure it has enough prison places for senders of abusive tweets and Koran burners before jailing shoplifters and gang members
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/05/08/man-who-burned-koran-faces-charges-for-harassing-islam/
    But remember we don't have a blasphemy law protecting Islam... you just get arrested and prosecuted and go on trial if you burn a Koran. It's completely different
    He has been charged under the Public Order Act for causing 'anxiety and distress' to Muslims in public.

    In which case can we monarchists get the police to arrest Smith and his Republic 'Not My King' placard wavers as they are causing us and no doubt the King 'anxiety and distress' when protesting in public too?
    Likewise, they need to arrest every single marcher on every pro-Palestinian march, for causing "anxiety and distress" to Jews

    But of course they won't do that, Our new blasphemy law only applies to Islam, largely because some adherents of the Religion of Peace have a tendency to behead people

    I applaud Jenrick for wading in on this. He speaks articulately. The Tories really need to dump Badenoch and install Jenrick ASAFP. She's not going to miraculously improve, she is what she is: likewable but lightweight, not as smart as she believes, bad at thinking on her feet, too immersed in the Twitterverse

    Jenrick might just POSSIBLY move the dial, given the chance
    Where would the Tories go if they do replace her with Jenrick and he doesn't move the dial?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,034
    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:



    I’ll still be shopping at Tesco, going swimming sometimes, nibbling nuts in the afternoon, drinking red wine from a sherry glass, I’ll still be doing these same things, but I’ll be doing them in a world that has changed.

    This is faintly tragic, and also ever so slightly provincial, and non-U. But, then again, you are a retired accountant.

    I agree the post WWII world is now over. VE Day 80 didn't have the spark it should, and it's just moving into history now.
    That was my point - and more specifically 'feeling' it as opposed to understanding it in the abstract.

    Always a point to my contributions. I'm never just prattling away for the sake of it.
    I now have a weird image in my head of a not terribly old, but fading fast, retired accountant, with his slippers on, and on a reclining SCS leather armchair, sipping some cheap red plonk out of a sherry glass, whilst watching re-runs of Poirot and a Stennah Stairlift brochure on his lap.
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does the centre-left have any explanations for why Ref is doing so well atm, (other than they're a bunch of thickos, bigots, etc)?

    Yes.
    They are offering attractive yet simplistic and unworkable solutions at a time of economic difficulty.
    As a non-lefty right of centre one time One Nation Tory who voted Remain (and genuinely loathes Farage), I think I have come to a conclusion as to why some vote Reform. It is simply that they are pissed off. Pissed off with the woke rachet, where they perceive that greater credence is given to immigrants, where statues of historic figures are torn down and those responsible are not prosecuted, where one might be cancelled for stating something that someone else decides is not the modern perspective, where policemen will arrest you for the mildest of "crimes", or perhaps for defending your own property, but real thugs thieves and burglars seem to get off scot-free, because the police claim they do not "have the resources". These are the types of reasons. Mainstream politician need to address them.
    The problem with tackling those "issues" is made more difficult because they are right wing Social Media urban myths. The truth is too boring for the click bait circuit.
    You think it’s a social media urban myth that the police aren’t bothering to investigate phone theft and bike theft and car theft? And shoplifting?
    The government has now said the police must investigate thefts under £200
    This government says a lot and does less than zero

    Remember SMASH THE GANGS

    It's so risible it's mortifying. I notice Sir Beer Korma has largely stopped saying "we're going to SMASH THE GANGS" presumably because everyone would laugh at him with scornful contempt
    Well I suppose it has to ensure it has enough prison places for senders of abusive tweets and Koran burners before jailing shoplifters and gang members
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/05/08/man-who-burned-koran-faces-charges-for-harassing-islam/
    But remember we don't have a blasphemy law protecting Islam... you just get arrested and prosecuted and go on trial if you burn a Koran. It's completely different
    He has been charged under the Public Order Act for causing 'anxiety and distress' to Muslims in public.

    In which case can we monarchists get the police to arrest Smith and his Republic 'Not My King' placard wavers as they are causing us and no doubt the King 'anxiety and distress' when protesting in public too?
    Likewise, they need to arrest every single marcher on every pro-Palestinian march, for causing "anxiety and distress" to Jews

    But of course they won't do that, Our new blasphemy law only applies to Islam, largely because some adherents of the Religion of Peace have a tendency to behead people

    I applaud Jenrick for wading in on this. He speaks articulately. The Tories really need to dump Badenoch and install Jenrick ASAFP. She's not going to miraculously improve, she is what she is: likewable but lightweight, not as smart as she believes, bad at thinking on her feet, too immersed in the Twitterverse

    Jenrick might just POSSIBLY move the dial, given the chance
    Yes, if you are going to arrest people under the Public Order Act for political statements or actions which cause no physical harm in public then you need to arrest leftwingers as well as rightwingers, otherwise the police just risk being seen as Starmer's woke regime's enforcers.

    As for the Conservatives, Jenrick is articulate but only Boris would move the dial.

    More In Common last week found that 20% would vote Conservative with Jenrick, actually 1% less than the 21% who would do so with Badenoch with Reform's lead over the Tories falling by a mere 1% too.

    Only Boris shifted the dial, with a Johnson return taking the Conservatives to 26% but even then that would still only be most seats in a hung parliament with Reform still on 23% even against Boris, Labour on just 22% and the LDs on 15%

    https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/2cyg5l1m/more-in-common-post-election-briefing-4.pdf (p48)
    I wouldn't vote Conservative if Jenrick was leader.

    I'll probably go through the motions for Kemi. If only to keep out Farage. (I see Jenrick and Farage as cheeks of the same arse.)
    What proportion of current Conservatives will move their vote to Reform if it becomes the principal party of the right? It’s an interesting question.

    Judging by the demographic on PB, and reading between the lines, I’d guess something like:

    7/10 switch to reform
    2/10 stick to conservative if Kemi or say Cleverly is leader
    1/10 switch to Lib Dems or others

    Unless Jenrick becomes leader and goes all out MAGA, in which case

    6/10 go to Reform
    2/10 stick Tory
    2/10 go to Lib Dems
    Why would Bobby J as leader cause one in ten Tories to desert Reform and vote Lib Dem?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,048
    Andy_JS said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    I read a brilliant substack observation by novelist Tim Lott the other day. On this subject: ageing

    He said “I often have this wilful delusion that getting old is like an illness. And one day soon I will wake up and feel better. And I will be 34 again”

    I live under the delusion that I’m not definitely going to age, that there’s a possibility I might dodge it (and to a certain extent dying). The epitome of wishful thinking!

    In the real world though, I just don’t buy the getting fat etc as you get older thing.. and if you stay relatively fit, and eat healthily, you don’t feel old.
    Hah. Martin Amis said exactly that. When he was young or even middle aged he said “I kinda convince myself that ageing is something that happens to other people, it won’t happen to me. I’m different”

    And then he got old. And died

    I’ve just checked his age at death - 73

    And the age of his father Kingsley at death? - 73

    This is one piece of wisdom I’ve accrued of late. People tend to die the same age as their parents. Sons as fathers. Daughters as mothers. I’ve had a couple of good friends conk out far too early in recent years - and they both had fathers that died early - at the same age

    Genetics is Destiny
    I’m hoping it doesn’t skip a generation, as my Grandad died very suddenly at 55 yet his three sons are all still alive in their 70s & 80s, each of whom have beaten cancer

    When I had a bad reaction to my Covid jab it was the first time I thought “I actually could die here”. Been very lucky I suppose
    Genetic destiny is not total. Earlier generations would have succumbed to those cancers, and perhaps your grandfather would have lived much longer with modern preventative therapy of cardiac risk factors. The rate of sudden cardiac deaths has halved over the last half century.

    In the end the tendency to turn into our parents takes over from a youthful determination to not be like them. You can trim that course in life a little, but it is hard work to go against that grain.
    Just seen this in the Telegraph.

    "Why senescent cells hold the key to almost every age-related disease
    These so-called ‘zombie’ cells seem to be a common denominator in disease – and may be the answer to ageing
    David Cox" (£)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/health-fitness/conditions/ageing/senescent-cells/
    New Scientist was saying that ten years ago.
    https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22730390-500-secret-to-old-age-health-could-lie-in-purging-worn-out-cells/
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,060
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:



    I’ll still be shopping at Tesco, going swimming sometimes, nibbling nuts in the afternoon, drinking red wine from a sherry glass, I’ll still be doing these same things, but I’ll be doing them in a world that has changed.

    This is faintly tragic, and also ever so slightly provincial, and non-U. But, then again, you are a retired accountant.

    I agree the post WWII world is now over. VE Day 80 didn't have the spark it should, and it's just moving into history now.
    That was my point - and more specifically 'feeling' it as opposed to understanding it in the abstract.

    Always a point to my contributions. I'm never just prattling away for the sake of it.
    I now have a weird image in my head of a not terribly old, but fading fast, retired accountant, with his slippers on, and on a reclining SCS leather armchair, sipping some cheap red plonk out of a sherry glass, whilst watching re-runs of Poirot and a Stennah Stairlift brochure on his lap.
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does the centre-left have any explanations for why Ref is doing so well atm, (other than they're a bunch of thickos, bigots, etc)?

    Yes.
    They are offering attractive yet simplistic and unworkable solutions at a time of economic difficulty.
    As a non-lefty right of centre one time One Nation Tory who voted Remain (and genuinely loathes Farage), I think I have come to a conclusion as to why some vote Reform. It is simply that they are pissed off. Pissed off with the woke rachet, where they perceive that greater credence is given to immigrants, where statues of historic figures are torn down and those responsible are not prosecuted, where one might be cancelled for stating something that someone else decides is not the modern perspective, where policemen will arrest you for the mildest of "crimes", or perhaps for defending your own property, but real thugs thieves and burglars seem to get off scot-free, because the police claim they do not "have the resources". These are the types of reasons. Mainstream politician need to address them.
    The problem with tackling those "issues" is made more difficult because they are right wing Social Media urban myths. The truth is too boring for the click bait circuit.
    You think it’s a social media urban myth that the police aren’t bothering to investigate phone theft and bike theft and car theft? And shoplifting?
    The government has now said the police must investigate thefts under £200
    This government says a lot and does less than zero

    Remember SMASH THE GANGS

    It's so risible it's mortifying. I notice Sir Beer Korma has largely stopped saying "we're going to SMASH THE GANGS" presumably because everyone would laugh at him with scornful contempt
    Well I suppose it has to ensure it has enough prison places for senders of abusive tweets and Koran burners before jailing shoplifters and gang members
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/05/08/man-who-burned-koran-faces-charges-for-harassing-islam/
    But remember we don't have a blasphemy law protecting Islam... you just get arrested and prosecuted and go on trial if you burn a Koran. It's completely different
    He has been charged under the Public Order Act for causing 'anxiety and distress' to Muslims in public.

    In which case can we monarchists get the police to arrest Smith and his Republic 'Not My King' placard wavers as they are causing us and no doubt the King 'anxiety and distress' when protesting in public too?
    Likewise, they need to arrest every single marcher on every pro-Palestinian march, for causing "anxiety and distress" to Jews

    But of course they won't do that, Our new blasphemy law only applies to Islam, largely because some adherents of the Religion of Peace have a tendency to behead people

    I applaud Jenrick for wading in on this. He speaks articulately. The Tories really need to dump Badenoch and install Jenrick ASAFP. She's not going to miraculously improve, she is what she is: likewable but lightweight, not as smart as she believes, bad at thinking on her feet, too immersed in the Twitterverse

    Jenrick might just POSSIBLY move the dial, given the chance
    I argued strongly for Jenrick against Kemi (against poor Casino Royale, very nice man but world champion wrongness magnet, who insisted Kemi was better).

    But the only thing I'd now say in defence of the current set up is that not being leader probably frees Jenrick up to campaign a lot more than he would otherwise.

    There's a chance (slim) that we might all have been admiring Kemi's spunky work ethic and deploring Jenrick's inactivity had he won.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,171
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:



    I’ll still be shopping at Tesco, going swimming sometimes, nibbling nuts in the afternoon, drinking red wine from a sherry glass, I’ll still be doing these same things, but I’ll be doing them in a world that has changed.

    This is faintly tragic, and also ever so slightly provincial, and non-U. But, then again, you are a retired accountant.

    I agree the post WWII world is now over. VE Day 80 didn't have the spark it should, and it's just moving into history now.
    That was my point - and more specifically 'feeling' it as opposed to understanding it in the abstract.

    Always a point to my contributions. I'm never just prattling away for the sake of it.
    I now have a weird image in my head of a not terribly old, but fading fast, retired accountant, with his slippers on, and on a reclining SCS leather armchair, sipping some cheap red plonk out of a sherry glass, whilst watching re-runs of Poirot and a Stennah Stairlift brochure on his lap.
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does the centre-left have any explanations for why Ref is doing so well atm, (other than they're a bunch of thickos, bigots, etc)?

    Yes.
    They are offering attractive yet simplistic and unworkable solutions at a time of economic difficulty.
    As a non-lefty right of centre one time One Nation Tory who voted Remain (and genuinely loathes Farage), I think I have come to a conclusion as to why some vote Reform. It is simply that they are pissed off. Pissed off with the woke rachet, where they perceive that greater credence is given to immigrants, where statues of historic figures are torn down and those responsible are not prosecuted, where one might be cancelled for stating something that someone else decides is not the modern perspective, where policemen will arrest you for the mildest of "crimes", or perhaps for defending your own property, but real thugs thieves and burglars seem to get off scot-free, because the police claim they do not "have the resources". These are the types of reasons. Mainstream politician need to address them.
    The problem with tackling those "issues" is made more difficult because they are right wing Social Media urban myths. The truth is too boring for the click bait circuit.
    You think it’s a social media urban myth that the police aren’t bothering to investigate phone theft and bike theft and car theft? And shoplifting?
    The government has now said the police must investigate thefts under £200
    This government says a lot and does less than zero

    Remember SMASH THE GANGS

    It's so risible it's mortifying. I notice Sir Beer Korma has largely stopped saying "we're going to SMASH THE GANGS" presumably because everyone would laugh at him with scornful contempt
    Well I suppose it has to ensure it has enough prison places for senders of abusive tweets and Koran burners before jailing shoplifters and gang members
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/05/08/man-who-burned-koran-faces-charges-for-harassing-islam/
    But remember we don't have a blasphemy law protecting Islam... you just get arrested and prosecuted and go on trial if you burn a Koran. It's completely different
    He has been charged under the Public Order Act for causing 'anxiety and distress' to Muslims in public.

    In which case can we monarchists get the police to arrest Smith and his Republic 'Not My King' placard wavers as they are causing us and no doubt the King 'anxiety and distress' when protesting in public too?
    Likewise, they need to arrest every single marcher on every pro-Palestinian march, for causing "anxiety and distress" to Jews

    But of course they won't do that, Our new blasphemy law only applies to Islam, largely because some adherents of the Religion of Peace have a tendency to behead people

    I applaud Jenrick for wading in on this. He speaks articulately. The Tories really need to dump Badenoch and install Jenrick ASAFP. She's not going to miraculously improve, she is what she is: likewable but lightweight, not as smart as she believes, bad at thinking on her feet, too immersed in the Twitterverse

    Jenrick might just POSSIBLY move the dial, given the chance
    Where would the Tories go if they do replace her with Jenrick and he doesn't move the dial?
    I think Jenrick would move the dial in a slide-rule sort of way. Win back some voters from Reform while shipping a roughly similar amount on his left flank.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,171
    dixiedean said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:



    I’ll still be shopping at Tesco, going swimming sometimes, nibbling nuts in the afternoon, drinking red wine from a sherry glass, I’ll still be doing these same things, but I’ll be doing them in a world that has changed.

    This is faintly tragic, and also ever so slightly provincial, and non-U. But, then again, you are a retired accountant.

    I agree the post WWII world is now over. VE Day 80 didn't have the spark it should, and it's just moving into history now.
    That was my point - and more specifically 'feeling' it as opposed to understanding it in the abstract.

    Always a point to my contributions. I'm never just prattling away for the sake of it.
    I now have a weird image in my head of a not terribly old, but fading fast, retired accountant, with his slippers on, and on a reclining SCS leather armchair, sipping some cheap red plonk out of a sherry glass, whilst watching re-runs of Poirot and a Stennah Stairlift brochure on his lap.
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does the centre-left have any explanations for why Ref is doing so well atm, (other than they're a bunch of thickos, bigots, etc)?

    Yes.
    They are offering attractive yet simplistic and unworkable solutions at a time of economic difficulty.
    As a non-lefty right of centre one time One Nation Tory who voted Remain (and genuinely loathes Farage), I think I have come to a conclusion as to why some vote Reform. It is simply that they are pissed off. Pissed off with the woke rachet, where they perceive that greater credence is given to immigrants, where statues of historic figures are torn down and those responsible are not prosecuted, where one might be cancelled for stating something that someone else decides is not the modern perspective, where policemen will arrest you for the mildest of "crimes", or perhaps for defending your own property, but real thugs thieves and burglars seem to get off scot-free, because the police claim they do not "have the resources". These are the types of reasons. Mainstream politician need to address them.
    The problem with tackling those "issues" is made more difficult because they are right wing Social Media urban myths. The truth is too boring for the click bait circuit.
    You think it’s a social media urban myth that the police aren’t bothering to investigate phone theft and bike theft and car theft? And shoplifting?
    The government has now said the police must investigate thefts under £200
    This government says a lot and does less than zero

    Remember SMASH THE GANGS

    It's so risible it's mortifying. I notice Sir Beer Korma has largely stopped saying "we're going to SMASH THE GANGS" presumably because everyone would laugh at him with scornful contempt
    Well I suppose it has to ensure it has enough prison places for senders of abusive tweets and Koran burners before jailing shoplifters and gang members
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/05/08/man-who-burned-koran-faces-charges-for-harassing-islam/
    But remember we don't have a blasphemy law protecting Islam... you just get arrested and prosecuted and go on trial if you burn a Koran. It's completely different
    He has been charged under the Public Order Act for causing 'anxiety and distress' to Muslims in public.

    In which case can we monarchists get the police to arrest Smith and his Republic 'Not My King' placard wavers as they are causing us and no doubt the King 'anxiety and distress' when protesting in public too?
    Likewise, they need to arrest every single marcher on every pro-Palestinian march, for causing "anxiety and distress" to Jews

    But of course they won't do that, Our new blasphemy law only applies to Islam, largely because some adherents of the Religion of Peace have a tendency to behead people

    I applaud Jenrick for wading in on this. He speaks articulately. The Tories really need to dump Badenoch and install Jenrick ASAFP. She's not going to miraculously improve, she is what she is: likewable but lightweight, not as smart as she believes, bad at thinking on her feet, too immersed in the Twitterverse

    Jenrick might just POSSIBLY move the dial, given the chance
    Yes, if you are going to arrest people under the Public Order Act for political statements or actions which cause no physical harm in public then you need to arrest leftwingers as well as rightwingers, otherwise the police just risk being seen as Starmer's woke regime's enforcers.

    As for the Conservatives, Jenrick is articulate but only Boris would move the dial.

    More In Common last week found that 20% would vote Conservative with Jenrick, actually 1% less than the 21% who would do so with Badenoch with Reform's lead over the Tories falling by a mere 1% too.

    Only Boris shifted the dial, with a Johnson return taking the Conservatives to 26% but even then that would still only be most seats in a hung parliament with Reform still on 23% even against Boris, Labour on just 22% and the LDs on 15%

    https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/2cyg5l1m/more-in-common-post-election-briefing-4.pdf (p48)
    I wouldn't vote Conservative if Jenrick was leader.

    I'll probably go through the motions for Kemi. If only to keep out Farage. (I see Jenrick and Farage as cheeks of the same arse.)
    What proportion of current Conservatives will move their vote to Reform if it becomes the principal party of the right? It’s an interesting question.

    Judging by the demographic on PB, and reading between the lines, I’d guess something like:

    7/10 switch to reform
    2/10 stick to conservative if Kemi or say Cleverly is leader
    1/10 switch to Lib Dems or others

    Unless Jenrick becomes leader and goes all out MAGA, in which case

    6/10 go to Reform
    2/10 stick Tory
    2/10 go to Lib Dems
    Why would Bobby J as leader cause one in ten Tories to desert Reform and vote Lib Dem?
    He wouldn’t, the theory is he’d leak fewer voters to Reform but leak more to Lib Dem or other parties.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,024
    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    That's harsh but it's fair in two respects. He does lack charisma and he's a manager not a visionary. However a charismatic persona and a grand vision are imo overrated in politics compared to competence and good intentions. I'd always take the latter. And it's what we need. We're a free and prosperous country which could be better in many respects, not a broken shithole of a place.
    I agree on that. Britain is a lovely place to be on a day like this.

    I think the doom and gloom is heavily overdone by those plastic patriots determined to talk down the country.
    I've noticed a tendency among the kind of people who like to complain about misinformation to stubbornly cling to an idea of the way things are that is based purely on the way they would like things to be, or the way they imagine things to be, or even the way they remember that things used to be. They are impervious to anything that contradicts this, even if it is meticulously factual and supported by evidence from sources that they would normally regard as authoritative.
    Very true. The shoplifting argument was vivid evidence of this

    The blinkered centrist Dads insisting it's "always been like this", "I worked in retail a decade ago, nothing has changed"

    This despite PBers offering personal lived experience

    Even when we showed the Centrist Dads the actual hard evidence - a ten fold increase in shoplifting in ten years, according to the Economist - they then claimed they'd always accepted this, or they pretended that it was some statistical anomaly
    Though there is a facile enjoyment in turning the ghastly phrases of the woke against them, I can't get on board with using 'lived experience', even in semi-jest.
    I am in two mind. I despise anything and everything to do with Wokeness and the Woke (I'm sorry if this comes as a shock), however I believe the phrase "lived experience" is actually useful, and captures something particular which is not quite captured by the simple word "experience"
    "Real experience" is probably the phrase that would have been used a few years or decades back to convey the same thing.
    "First hand" or "direct" experience is probably how we would have described it in the past, but ours is an evolving language.
    But "lived" is better. "Lived experience" says:

    *this is something I have personally witnessed or experienced in my life, which has impacted my life*

    I hate to admit the Woke have created a useful phrase - but they have
    There's loads. White Privilege is my favourite in a crowded field. It precisely nails something that is omnipresent but was previously (afaik) undescribed, at least not so pertly.
    I am musing on a header that I have provisionally titled:

    "White Privilege, Slavery Reparations and Intersectionality"

    I hope that is clickbaity enough for the Mods 😅
    :smile: - that sounds great. I'm drafting one on a similar topic but yours will be better - so I'll stop mine and offer it up here.

    Alien visits Earth to check on the Culture War, reports back to base:

    “Ah Zeberdee, come in.”

    “Cheers boss.”

    “Right. What’s it all about then?”

    “Well you know how they have a mixture of men and women there in various different colours?”

    “Yup.”

    “Ok so the issue is that men have grown accustomed to calling the shots, especially the white ones. Women in general and men who aren’t white have tended to be treated as inferiors, even though they are all basically the same.”

    “How silly. Is that stopping now?”

    “Not really. The norms are quite embedded. The technical name for it is white privilege and the patriarchy.”

    “Ooo, get you Zeberdee!”

    “Sorry, boss. The lingo is catching. Point is, the same types are still ruling the roost pretty much.”

    “Well if that’s how they want to carry on.”

    “It’s how it’s always been. But people are finally being asked to consider making a change.”

    “Sounds an excellent initiative.”

    “To some of them it does, yes, and these they call the woke, but to the rest not so much. They’re going ape about it.”

    “Ape? - ha ha. That’s what they are, Zeb, isn’t it?”

    “Indeed! Although no pun intended. I mean they’re angry and upset. Hence this War they’re having.”

    “Surely they see the point of the exercise?”

    “You’d have thought so, viewing from a million lightyears away, but apart from these relatively advanced woke ones, no they don’t. They’re coming up with all sorts of reasons why even discussing it is wrong and dangerous.”

    “Humanoids are a rum lot and no mistake.”

    “We should cut some slack, though, boss. Much of it is to do with the psychology of their rich western countries, in particular a notorious one called Britain. Many there believe their dominion over half the planet was good for all.”

    “I see.”

    “Trouble is, they get so irritated by talk of social injustice they want to go backwards and have MORE of it. They even describe one of their primitive historical periods as the Enlightenment!”

    “Good grief. So who’s going to prevail, do we reckon? - the woke or this other mob?”

    “Dunno boss, it could go either way.”

    “Well keep us posted. You’re back there fairly soon, I understand? Earth year 2175?”

    “For my sins.”
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,165
    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    That's harsh but it's fair in two respects. He does lack charisma and he's a manager not a visionary. However a charismatic persona and a grand vision are imo overrated in politics compared to competence and good intentions. I'd always take the latter. And it's what we need. We're a free and prosperous country which could be better in many respects, not a broken shithole of a place.
    I agree on that. Britain is a lovely place to be on a day like this.

    I think the doom and gloom is heavily overdone by those plastic patriots determined to talk down the country.
    I've noticed a tendency among the kind of people who like to complain about misinformation to stubbornly cling to an idea of the way things are that is based purely on the way they would like things to be, or the way they imagine things to be, or even the way they remember that things used to be. They are impervious to anything that contradicts this, even if it is meticulously factual and supported by evidence from sources that they would normally regard as authoritative.
    Very true. The shoplifting argument was vivid evidence of this

    The blinkered centrist Dads insisting it's "always been like this", "I worked in retail a decade ago, nothing has changed"

    This despite PBers offering personal lived experience

    Even when we showed the Centrist Dads the actual hard evidence - a ten fold increase in shoplifting in ten years, according to the Economist - they then claimed they'd always accepted this, or they pretended that it was some statistical anomaly
    Though there is a facile enjoyment in turning the ghastly phrases of the woke against them, I can't get on board with using 'lived experience', even in semi-jest.
    I am in two mind. I despise anything and everything to do with Wokeness and the Woke (I'm sorry if this comes as a shock), however I believe the phrase "lived experience" is actually useful, and captures something particular which is not quite captured by the simple word "experience"
    "Real experience" is probably the phrase that would have been used a few years or decades back to convey the same thing.
    "First hand" or "direct" experience is probably how we would have described it in the past, but ours is an evolving language.
    But "lived" is better. "Lived experience" says:

    *this is something I have personally witnessed or experienced in my life, which has impacted my life*

    I hate to admit the Woke have created a useful phrase - but they have
    There's loads. White Privilege is my favourite in a crowded field. It precisely nails something that is omnipresent but was previously (afaik) undescribed, at least not so pertly.
    I am musing on a header that I have provisionally titled:

    "White Privilege, Slavery Reparations and Intersectionality"

    I hope that is clickbaity enough for the Mods 😅
    :smile: - that sounds great. I'm drafting one on a similar topic but yours will be better - so I'll stop mine and offer it up here.

    Alien visits Earth to check on the Culture War, reports back to base:

    “Ah Zeberdee, come in.” ...
    That the guy who had an affair with a local, and left a couple of sons, James & John ?

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,857

    NEW THREAD

  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,535
    dixiedean said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:



    I’ll still be shopping at Tesco, going swimming sometimes, nibbling nuts in the afternoon, drinking red wine from a sherry glass, I’ll still be doing these same things, but I’ll be doing them in a world that has changed.

    This is faintly tragic, and also ever so slightly provincial, and non-U. But, then again, you are a retired accountant.

    I agree the post WWII world is now over. VE Day 80 didn't have the spark it should, and it's just moving into history now.
    That was my point - and more specifically 'feeling' it as opposed to understanding it in the abstract.

    Always a point to my contributions. I'm never just prattling away for the sake of it.
    I now have a weird image in my head of a not terribly old, but fading fast, retired accountant, with his slippers on, and on a reclining SCS leather armchair, sipping some cheap red plonk out of a sherry glass, whilst watching re-runs of Poirot and a Stennah Stairlift brochure on his lap.
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does the centre-left have any explanations for why Ref is doing so well atm, (other than they're a bunch of thickos, bigots, etc)?

    Yes.
    They are offering attractive yet simplistic and unworkable solutions at a time of economic difficulty.
    As a non-lefty right of centre one time One Nation Tory who voted Remain (and genuinely loathes Farage), I think I have come to a conclusion as to why some vote Reform. It is simply that they are pissed off. Pissed off with the woke rachet, where they perceive that greater credence is given to immigrants, where statues of historic figures are torn down and those responsible are not prosecuted, where one might be cancelled for stating something that someone else decides is not the modern perspective, where policemen will arrest you for the mildest of "crimes", or perhaps for defending your own property, but real thugs thieves and burglars seem to get off scot-free, because the police claim they do not "have the resources". These are the types of reasons. Mainstream politician need to address them.
    The problem with tackling those "issues" is made more difficult because they are right wing Social Media urban myths. The truth is too boring for the click bait circuit.
    You think it’s a social media urban myth that the police aren’t bothering to investigate phone theft and bike theft and car theft? And shoplifting?
    The government has now said the police must investigate thefts under £200
    This government says a lot and does less than zero

    Remember SMASH THE GANGS

    It's so risible it's mortifying. I notice Sir Beer Korma has largely stopped saying "we're going to SMASH THE GANGS" presumably because everyone would laugh at him with scornful contempt
    Well I suppose it has to ensure it has enough prison places for senders of abusive tweets and Koran burners before jailing shoplifters and gang members
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/05/08/man-who-burned-koran-faces-charges-for-harassing-islam/
    But remember we don't have a blasphemy law protecting Islam... you just get arrested and prosecuted and go on trial if you burn a Koran. It's completely different
    He has been charged under the Public Order Act for causing 'anxiety and distress' to Muslims in public.

    In which case can we monarchists get the police to arrest Smith and his Republic 'Not My King' placard wavers as they are causing us and no doubt the King 'anxiety and distress' when protesting in public too?
    Likewise, they need to arrest every single marcher on every pro-Palestinian march, for causing "anxiety and distress" to Jews

    But of course they won't do that, Our new blasphemy law only applies to Islam, largely because some adherents of the Religion of Peace have a tendency to behead people

    I applaud Jenrick for wading in on this. He speaks articulately. The Tories really need to dump Badenoch and install Jenrick ASAFP. She's not going to miraculously improve, she is what she is: likewable but lightweight, not as smart as she believes, bad at thinking on her feet, too immersed in the Twitterverse

    Jenrick might just POSSIBLY move the dial, given the chance
    Yes, if you are going to arrest people under the Public Order Act for political statements or actions which cause no physical harm in public then you need to arrest leftwingers as well as rightwingers, otherwise the police just risk being seen as Starmer's woke regime's enforcers.

    As for the Conservatives, Jenrick is articulate but only Boris would move the dial.

    More In Common last week found that 20% would vote Conservative with Jenrick, actually 1% less than the 21% who would do so with Badenoch with Reform's lead over the Tories falling by a mere 1% too.

    Only Boris shifted the dial, with a Johnson return taking the Conservatives to 26% but even then that would still only be most seats in a hung parliament with Reform still on 23% even against Boris, Labour on just 22% and the LDs on 15%

    https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/2cyg5l1m/more-in-common-post-election-briefing-4.pdf (p48)
    I wouldn't vote Conservative if Jenrick was leader.

    I'll probably go through the motions for Kemi. If only to keep out Farage. (I see Jenrick and Farage as cheeks of the same arse.)
    What proportion of current Conservatives will move their vote to Reform if it becomes the principal party of the right? It’s an interesting question.

    Judging by the demographic on PB, and reading between the lines, I’d guess something like:

    7/10 switch to reform
    2/10 stick to conservative if Kemi or say Cleverly is leader
    1/10 switch to Lib Dems or others

    Unless Jenrick becomes leader and goes all out MAGA, in which case

    6/10 go to Reform
    2/10 stick Tory
    2/10 go to Lib Dems
    Why would Bobby J as leader cause one in ten Tories to desert Reform and vote Lib Dem?
    I don't think he would.

    Jenrick would keep some on the right in the Conservative fold, at least for a bit longer. But at the cost of losing some on whatever passes for the centre-left of the party to the Lib Dems.

    Someone like Cleverly or Hunt faces the same problem in reverse; shore up the left flank but further collapse on the right. Bottom line is that the Conservatives currently have aggressive energetic opponents to their left and their right. That is not a nice situation to be in.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 983
    carnforth said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    That's harsh but it's fair in two respects. He does lack charisma and he's a manager not a visionary. However a charismatic persona and a grand vision are imo overrated in politics compared to competence and good intentions. I'd always take the latter. And it's what we need. We're a free and prosperous country which could be better in many respects, not a broken shithole of a place.
    I agree on that. Britain is a lovely place to be on a day like this.

    I think the doom and gloom is heavily overdone by those plastic patriots determined to talk down the country.
    I've noticed a tendency among the kind of people who like to complain about misinformation to stubbornly cling to an idea of the way things are that is based purely on the way they would like things to be, or the way they imagine things to be, or even the way they remember that things used to be. They are impervious to anything that contradicts this, even if it is meticulously factual and supported by evidence from sources that they would normally regard as authoritative.
    Very true. The shoplifting argument was vivid evidence of this

    The blinkered centrist Dads insisting it's "always been like this", "I worked in retail a decade ago, nothing has changed"

    This despite PBers offering personal lived experience

    Even when we showed the Centrist Dads the actual hard evidence - a ten fold increase in shoplifting in ten years, according to the Economist - they then claimed they'd always accepted this, or they pretended that it was some statistical anomaly
    Same with immigration; centrist Dads are defending numbers they’d never have believed possible a decade ago, and calling people who want a return to coalition style figures of 250k ‘Fascists’
    Are they? I have genuinely no idea why the Tories (hardly centrist dads) presided over such a huge rise in net migration and I've literally not heard anyone on the centre left say that it was great. Indeed, most have simply pointed out the irony that it was Brexit that seems to have facilitated the surge. I mean, it is pretty funny.
    Personally I don't have strong feelings about immigration. I would just like to have a system that is fair and humane and balances competing imperatives of the labour market, fairness for existing workers, pressure on housing and infrastructure, allowing universities to meet global demand from students, and international obligations to help refugees. People on here bang on about it too much though, it's getting boring.
    Immigration is now starting to fall net after Rishi raised the wage requirement for visas and cut the ability of dependents to come in too
    Ironically among the skills we need is that of care workers and nurses who are paid nowhere near the levels Rishi set. Especially care workers.
    Getting serious as a country and ponying up £16ph instead of £13ph for care workers is an alternative. It's not immigration or bust.
    No chance of getting a carer for £16ph IME, the agencies are putting a near 100% margin on top.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,024
    The Silly Season is early this year. Must be all the sunshine
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,590
    Day 5." Immigration and why we don't want 'em."

    In the chair this week and last Isam and Leon.

    Retained for another scintillating week....

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,174
    rcs1000 said:

    In fairness, the new Pope was on RTÉ's list of 16 possible winners, so it wasn't a complete bolt from the blue.

    https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2025/0507/1511412-vatican-conclave-pope/

    He was in the NY Times top 6 list too.
    Above or below Trump
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,174
    Roger said:

    Day 5." Immigration and why we don't want 'em."

    In the chair this week and last Isam and Leon.

    Retained for another scintillating week....

    Brought to us by our French Riviera correspondent
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,614
    edited May 9
    ...
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