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Your regular reminder that betting markets are often laughably wrong – politicalbetting.com

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  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,429
    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Why Gen X is the real loser generation
    Don’t cry for millennials or Gen Z. Save your pity for those in their 50s" (£)

    https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/05/08/why-gen-x-is-the-real-loser-generation

    Oooooh, that includes me !!
    I thought you were a boomer. Is your birthdate before Jan 1 1965?
    No, it most certainly is not.
    Congratulations! I assumed because you had retired, but you know what they say about "assume" :(
    Indeed 😉

    I am on the borderline, September 65. And only been retired a few months.
    I’ve had a big long think about all this, as I walked around nw1 for the last two hours, observing all the changes - the comings and goings, the grottiness and the prettiness, the beautiful wisteria on the pastel pink townhouses - and I’ve come to the firm conclusion that getting old is shit
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,481

    viewcode said:

    Hmmm. To be ultra pedantic, he has resigned as National Statistician: a different and far higher position. I assume he was head of the ONS ex officio.

    If I have time and PB really annoys me, I will go over the structure of the UK statistical system, which incorporates the UK Statistics Authority and its Board, the Office for Statistics Regulation, the Office for National Statistics, and the Government Statistical Service. Incidentally I met two of his predecessors, and possibly three.

    A bit of variance in your last statement.
    Don't be mean.
    Why not, it seems to be very much in mode with your favourite politicians?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,829
    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Why Gen X is the real loser generation
    Don’t cry for millennials or Gen Z. Save your pity for those in their 50s" (£)

    https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/05/08/why-gen-x-is-the-real-loser-generation

    Oooooh, that includes me !!
    I thought you were a boomer. Is your birthdate before Jan 1 1965?
    No, it most certainly is not.
    Congratulations! I assumed because you had retired, but you know what they say about "assume" :(
    Indeed 😉

    I am on the borderline, September 65. And only been retired a few months.
    I’ve had a big long think about all this, as I walked around nw1 for the last two hours, observing all the changes - the comings and goings, the grottiness and the prettiness, the beautiful wisteria on the pastel pink townhouses - and I’ve come to the firm conclusion that getting old is shit
    Yea, but based on your posts, it would seem that just living is shit for you, because you are a miserable negative old git. Even your publicity photo that was probably taken ten years ago makes you look like you are angry with the world for not being the way you would like it.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,747
    People in charge of statistics and census data have made a number of mistakes recently, most famously the one to do with the number of transexuals in places like Tower Hamlets, caused by badly-framed questions.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,533
    Andy_JS said:

    Any guesses who reportedly just said this?

    “You have to understand that we won a massive majority and we have absolute, ultimate control.”

    Answer: the new Reform UK leader of Kent county council.

    https://www.kentonline.co.uk/kent/news/new-kcc-reform-uk-leader-reveals-plan-for-council-324062

    Which takes us back to the central mysteries of the coming years.

    The essence of Faragism is that Reform Will Fix It. That there are ways of making life for normal people better that don't harm anyone. Nobody who matters, anyway.

    That's easy to say, and it may even be true. I rather doubt it, but we won't know until it's tried. So two questions:

    Will Invicta-DOGE and so on reveal anything useful? Apart from the cost of running a Ukrainian flag up a pole?

    If it doesn't, what the hell do these new councillors do next?

    It would have been much easier had Reform come second in these elections, instead of blowing the bloody doors off.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,429

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Why Gen X is the real loser generation
    Don’t cry for millennials or Gen Z. Save your pity for those in their 50s" (£)

    https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/05/08/why-gen-x-is-the-real-loser-generation

    Oooooh, that includes me !!
    I thought you were a boomer. Is your birthdate before Jan 1 1965?
    No, it most certainly is not.
    Congratulations! I assumed because you had retired, but you know what they say about "assume" :(
    Indeed 😉

    I am on the borderline, September 65. And only been retired a few months.
    I’ve had a big long think about all this, as I walked around nw1 for the last two hours, observing all the changes - the comings and goings, the grottiness and the prettiness, the beautiful wisteria on the pastel pink townhouses - and I’ve come to the firm conclusion that getting old is shit
    Yea, but based on your posts, it would seem that just living is shit for you, because you are a miserable negative old git. Even your publicity photo that was probably taken ten years ago makes you look like you are angry with the world for not being the way you would like it.
    lol!

    You’re quite wrong old boy. I love life. But I also love an argument. And it’s quite possible to be rather happy and yet still disgruntled by the unavoidable fact that getting old is shit
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,957

    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Why Gen X is the real loser generation
    Don’t cry for millennials or Gen Z. Save your pity for those in their 50s" (£)

    https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/05/08/why-gen-x-is-the-real-loser-generation

    Oooooh, that includes me !!
    I thought you were a boomer. Is your birthdate before Jan 1 1965?
    No, it most certainly is not.
    Congratulations! I assumed because you had retired, but you know what they say about "assume" :(
    Indeed 😉

    I am on the borderline, September 65. And only been retired a few months.
    Hope the next two years are nice and active. Once you have passed the retirement + 2 your longevity outlook improves!
    Thank you, yes, so far very active and the weather has helped.

    A couple of things happened at work last September which pissed me off and made me decide to pull my plans forward two years. My wife suggested going as the weather improves and I am so glad I did. I have done so much walking so far and we are off out this afternoon for another walk.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,957
    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Why Gen X is the real loser generation
    Don’t cry for millennials or Gen Z. Save your pity for those in their 50s" (£)

    https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/05/08/why-gen-x-is-the-real-loser-generation

    Oooooh, that includes me !!
    I thought you were a boomer. Is your birthdate before Jan 1 1965?
    No, it most certainly is not.
    Congratulations! I assumed because you had retired, but you know what they say about "assume" :(
    Indeed 😉

    I am on the borderline, September 65. And only been retired a few months.
    I’ve had a big long think about all this, as I walked around nw1 for the last two hours, observing all the changes - the comings and goings, the grottiness and the prettiness, the beautiful wisteria on the pastel pink townhouses - and I’ve come to the firm conclusion that getting old is shit
    It’s the aches and pains in the morning. They don’t improve.

    Youth is wasted on the young. As the saying goes.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,735
    Sean_F said:

    viewcode said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    Eabhal said:

    FPT @Luckyguy1983

    Net Zero is starting to now run into economic reality with electric cars and deindustrialisation in a way it wasn't in the 2010s.

    To go further, we will have to accept real economic damage being done now, with the hope that our global leadership on it galvanises a faster transition to Net Zero worldwide.

    Will we?

    To put the actual argument to one side, it was interesting to find that even Reform voters aren't that fussed about Net Zero - only 9% picked it as an issue. It's very much an internet meme.

    Yet Farage considers this the "next Brexit". That feels like a fumble to me. They should stick to national identity and immigration.

    https://www.ft.com/content/ecb81e0e-11f6-469b-86ef-8e29996b9019
    https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/2cyg5l1m/more-in-common-post-election-briefing-4.pdf
    I'd say that Lincs is the one to watch, again. The new Reform Mayor Andrea Jenkins, and also her boss (?) Zia Yusuf, have been leading with green-bashing, and Lincs is the only place where they have both Mayor and control of the Council.

    Yes Lincs is reported to now have 12k green jobs and a green economy worth £1.2bn, according to the Local Enterprise Partnership.

    The low carbon and energy economy, already worth £1.2bn per annum to Greater Lincolnshire, holds exceptional potential offering an unprecedented level of private investment of £60bn over the next fifteen years.
    https://www.greaterlincolnshirelep.co.uk/priorities-and-plans/game-changers/green-energy/

    If they want to recreate the 1970s or 1950s, that might not be the place to start.
    Apparently net zero costs a bomb, right, so we're going to scrap that woke lefty nonsense, right, and go back to the good old days with British power stations burning British coal, right, who wants wind turbines or pylons anyway, right.

    I know that "Net Zero" is completely the wrong messaging, but the goal of energy independence is a good one. The environment needs to be tret as a bonus rather than the objective. Green energy is how we regain our place of power, no longer at the whim of Putin or money markets, we not only generate free energy but we can design build and export the technology.

    It should be a no-brainer. But "investment" is seen to be "subsidy" and thus "who will pay for it"
    Except that it isn't "free" energy and the panels are largely made in China, so probably not exactly reliable and secure, and quite arguable about how "green" the manufacture of said panels is.

    The most obvious self-sufficiency that this government seems to enjoy saying "go fuck yourself" to, is food production. Hopefully unlikely that we would suffer a food blockade as we did in WW2, but if we did we would starve to death pretty quickly. Two Tier Kier seems to be keen to make us starve a lot quicker
    Autarky positions like this quickly become absurd. You're arguing for a significant reduction in energy consumption and compulsory veganism.

    Solar lasts 25 years+ at 80% efficiency - if China cuts off supply, it will have no material impact on our energy generation for decades, by which time we'll be importing them from someone else. With food, most of our critical imports are from European countries (mainly veg). On gas, most of it comes from Norway.
    It isn't an "autarcky position" you pillock, it is common sense critique based on historical fact that being unable to produce a substantial part of our own food is not in any way desirable, quite apart from the environmental cost of importing food that can be grown here, and it's juxtaposition with the attitude of the current government with their much less rational claims on "energy security". As for China cutting off supply of panels, this is highly unlikely, but the point remains that the environmental credentials of these products are highly dubious. Goofy pillocks like Miliband arguing that "energy self-sufficiency" is a main reason for his obsession with randomly covering rural areas in solar panels to line the pockets the greedy is disingenuous in the extreme.
    We haven't been self-sufficient on food since about 1805.

    If you're moving to an enviornmental position, a massive tax on meat consumption (or at least a reduction in subsidies) would meet both objectives. About 40% of our crops are used to feed animals, and it opens up pastoral land for solar farms and reduces methane emissions.
    If memory serves we got close during ww2, but not completely and including the republic of Ireland. It involved a lot of people growing their own food. this was forced by the fact that food imports from Europe shrank to zero and from other countries were endangered by U-boat.

    Happy to be corrected if wrong
    Pretty sure though UK internal food supply got much more efficient, despite rationing & shortages we were still nowhere close to being self sufficient. According to Wiki imports made up 50% of Britain’s food supply with 22m tons pa, by war’s end it was 12m tons pa.
    No doubt there’s an alternative history somewhere where AH flung all Germany’s naval resources at U boats rather than battleships and Sealions.
    I don't think there's any scenario in which Nazi Germany could have won the War. Taking on simultaneously, the British Empire and Commonwealth, the Soviet Union, and the USA, could only end one way.

    Logistics are not everything, but they're probably about 75% of winning.
    Which begs the question why he did.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,023

    theProle said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does the centre-left have any explanations for why Ref is doing so well atm, (other than they're a bunch of thickos, bigots, etc)?

    Its not a great mystery is it?

    Conservatives are not just rubbish but discredited and out of ideas.
    Labour are a fraction better but also out of both ideas and courage.
    Workers are unhappy their share of the economy goes to the retired.
    The retired are unhappy with immigration and the pace of social change.

    Not sure what it has to do with the centre left, anymore than the far left, centre right, centre or far right.
    That accords with my view on Reform’s rise (also note the Farage phenomenon - although i would argue he puts off as many as he pleases).

    To a certain extent this has been the case since Brexit. A lot of people feel left behind or out of time. Farage (and indeed Johnson before him) suggest that there are simple answers to these questions and folk believe them. Is it populism? Probably. Will they fail if they ever achieve office? Almost certainly. Although like those types always do there will be a scapegoat - whether that be foreigners, the deep state or some other nonsense.

    I wish there was sn accepted view in society that if someone suggests that there is an easy solution to a hard protracted issue everyone realises straight away that they are full of it and they can be safely ignored.
    It depends what you mean by a simple solution.

    Sometimes simple solutions work, but you have to ask why they've not been done yet if they're so simple.

    Simple solutions that are politically unpopular because vested interests oppose them are perfectly legitimate solutions. The difficulty isn't extra complexity, it is the politicians facing backlash from the vested interest.

    Simple solutions that are universally popular and will cause no harm to anyone whatsoever are a bad joke.
    This.

    E.G. There are a number of "simple solutions" to the small boats problem, which would definitely "work".

    We could task the Navy with sinking them all. After the first few hundred people had drowned, I suspect that demand for small boat crossings would drop significantly. Even if it didn't, arrivals by small boats would be pretty close to zero.

    Or alternatively, we could establish a migration hub in Calais. Turn up there, we'll put you on a ferry and give you indefinite leave to remain, no questions asked.

    Both of these would "solve" the small boat issue - small boat arrivals would very quickly drop to zero. Neither are good or politically acceptable solutions.

    But, this said, the reason that Farage is likely to win the next election is simple. He has proposals in some areas which will work, and which everyone knows will work, and which are politically acceptable to half the country's population, but which, crucially, are beyond the pale for our current political class.

    Take immigration. He says - and a large chunk of the country thinks - that the asylum system is being abused by economic migrants (and their lawyers) taking the p***. The solution is pretty easy and simple - abolish the current system, come up with a new one that's much more restrictive, deport all the p*** takers, problem solved.

    That's politically unacceptable if you're a lefty human rights lawyer, so Starmer can't steal it. It's probably not politically unacceptable if you're a heartless Tory, but after the hopeless performance of the last Tory government, no-one thinks they'll do it,even if they say they will.

    Fararge isn't a magician or a hypnotist. He doesn't need to be. All he needs is to do is give the public what they've consistently voted for at every opportunity - lower immigration - and he'll be the most popular prime minister in a very long time.
    Asylum seekers are a small proportion of immigration. Those winning asylum with no real claim but good lawyers is a small proportion of those given asylum. Sure, you could fiddle around with the asylum system and reduce the proportion granted asylum a bit, but this would have a negligible impact on total immigration. So, no, that’s not an example of a Farage proposal that would work. It’s fantasy politics.
    The numbers are set to plummet under this government. By the time of the election they'll be able to say, with no word of a lie, that they have 'slashed' immigration.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,966

    theProle said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does the centre-left have any explanations for why Ref is doing so well atm, (other than they're a bunch of thickos, bigots, etc)?

    Its not a great mystery is it?

    Conservatives are not just rubbish but discredited and out of ideas.
    Labour are a fraction better but also out of both ideas and courage.
    Workers are unhappy their share of the economy goes to the retired.
    The retired are unhappy with immigration and the pace of social change.

    Not sure what it has to do with the centre left, anymore than the far left, centre right, centre or far right.
    That accords with my view on Reform’s rise (also note the Farage phenomenon - although i would argue he puts off as many as he pleases).

    To a certain extent this has been the case since Brexit. A lot of people feel left behind or out of time. Farage (and indeed Johnson before him) suggest that there are simple answers to these questions and folk believe them. Is it populism? Probably. Will they fail if they ever achieve office? Almost certainly. Although like those types always do there will be a scapegoat - whether that be foreigners, the deep state or some other nonsense.

    I wish there was sn accepted view in society that if someone suggests that there is an easy solution to a hard protracted issue everyone realises straight away that they are full of it and they can be safely ignored.
    It depends what you mean by a simple solution.

    Sometimes simple solutions work, but you have to ask why they've not been done yet if they're so simple.

    Simple solutions that are politically unpopular because vested interests oppose them are perfectly legitimate solutions. The difficulty isn't extra complexity, it is the politicians facing backlash from the vested interest.

    Simple solutions that are universally popular and will cause no harm to anyone whatsoever are a bad joke.
    This.

    E.G. There are a number of "simple solutions" to the small boats problem, which would definitely "work".

    We could task the Navy with sinking them all. After the first few hundred people had drowned, I suspect that demand for small boat crossings would drop significantly. Even if it didn't, arrivals by small boats would be pretty close to zero.

    Or alternatively, we could establish a migration hub in Calais. Turn up there, we'll put you on a ferry and give you indefinite leave to remain, no questions asked.

    Both of these would "solve" the small boat issue - small boat arrivals would very quickly drop to zero. Neither are good or politically acceptable solutions.

    But, this said, the reason that Farage is likely to win the next election is simple. He has proposals in some areas which will work, and which everyone knows will work, and which are politically acceptable to half the country's population, but which, crucially, are beyond the pale for our current political class.

    Take immigration. He says - and a large chunk of the country thinks - that the asylum system is being abused by economic migrants (and their lawyers) taking the p***. The solution is pretty easy and simple - abolish the current system, come up with a new one that's much more restrictive, deport all the p*** takers, problem solved.

    That's politically unacceptable if you're a lefty human rights lawyer, so Starmer can't steal it. It's probably not politically unacceptable if you're a heartless Tory, but after the hopeless performance of the last Tory government, no-one thinks they'll do it,even if they say they will.

    Fararge isn't a magician or a hypnotist. He doesn't need to be. All he needs is to do is give the public what they've consistently voted for at every opportunity - lower immigration - and he'll be the most popular prime minister in a very long time.
    My suggestion is to go after the criminals and shysters profiting off immigrants. Also the black market for labour.

    As part of it, remove the "protection" that employers have by hiring people as "independent contractors"

    All of that should sell well to a progressive base.
    Reducing fake self employment will play well with Labour’s base and solve a lot of the problem quickly - because deliveroo and Just Eat would disappear as options.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,533
    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Why Gen X is the real loser generation
    Don’t cry for millennials or Gen Z. Save your pity for those in their 50s" (£)

    https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/05/08/why-gen-x-is-the-real-loser-generation

    Oooooh, that includes me !!
    I thought you were a boomer. Is your birthdate before Jan 1 1965?
    No, it most certainly is not.
    Congratulations! I assumed because you had retired, but you know what they say about "assume" :(
    Indeed 😉

    I am on the borderline, September 65. And only been retired a few months.
    I’ve had a big long think about all this, as I walked around nw1 for the last two hours, observing all the changes - the comings and goings, the grottiness and the prettiness, the beautiful wisteria on the pastel pink townhouses - and I’ve come to the firm conclusion that getting old is shit
    And the wish to find someone to blame for that or to deny its happening, is the unsaid reason for a lot of our politics, from Biden to Boris.

    I suspect that early old is my optimal age; the experience of a guru, the appearance of one, the cast-iron excuse to stop pretending to strive.

    I can see that others don't see life that way.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,429
    edited May 9
    I read a brilliant substack observation by novelist Tim Lott the other day. On this subject: ageing

    He said “I often have this wilful delusion that getting old is like an illness. And one day soon I will wake up and feel better. And I will be 34 again”
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,429
    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Why Gen X is the real loser generation
    Don’t cry for millennials or Gen Z. Save your pity for those in their 50s" (£)

    https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/05/08/why-gen-x-is-the-real-loser-generation

    Oooooh, that includes me !!
    I thought you were a boomer. Is your birthdate before Jan 1 1965?
    No, it most certainly is not.
    Congratulations! I assumed because you had retired, but you know what they say about "assume" :(
    Indeed 😉

    I am on the borderline, September 65. And only been retired a few months.
    I’ve had a big long think about all this, as I walked around nw1 for the last two hours, observing all the changes - the comings and goings, the grottiness and the prettiness, the beautiful wisteria on the pastel pink townhouses - and I’ve come to the firm conclusion that getting old is shit
    It’s the aches and pains in the morning. They don’t improve.

    Youth is wasted on the young. As the saying goes.
    Yes. I really like the wisdom. It’s not a myth - you do get wiser as you age - you have perspective. You’ve seen so much, you’ve been through bad stuff before - you know it’s survivable

    It’s the physical decline that irks. My brain is - I hope - as fast as ever. But the body creaks

    Oh well. One major upside is that travel writing - even for a flint knapper - is one of the rare creative careers where you genuinely get better as you age. Because you have so much experience to draw from - you can compare this place with X and Y and Z - because you’ve been to them all. And also you know what works, prosodically
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,819
    tlg86 said:

    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Why Gen X is the real loser generation
    Don’t cry for millennials or Gen Z. Save your pity for those in their 50s" (£)

    https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/05/08/why-gen-x-is-the-real-loser-generation

    https://archive.is/VzNVq
    Thanks. This says it all:

    In Britain Gen Xers are less likely than members of any other age group to know the generation to which they belong.

    Almost as though that generation had very little to worry about.
    The only member of Generation X I am aware of is Billy Idol.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,510

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:



    I’ll still be shopping at Tesco, going swimming sometimes, nibbling nuts in the afternoon, drinking red wine from a sherry glass, I’ll still be doing these same things, but I’ll be doing them in a world that has changed.

    This is faintly tragic, and also ever so slightly provincial, and non-U. But, then again, you are a retired accountant.

    I agree the post WWII world is now over. VE Day 80 didn't have the spark it should, and it's just moving into history now.
    That was my point - and more specifically 'feeling' it as opposed to understanding it in the abstract.

    Always a point to my contributions. I'm never just prattling away for the sake of it.
    I now have a weird image in my head of a not terribly old, but fading fast, retired accountant, with his slippers on, and on a reclining SCS leather armchair, sipping some cheap red plonk out of a sherry glass, whilst watching re-runs of Poirot and a Stennah Stairlift brochure on his lap.
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does the centre-left have any explanations for why Ref is doing so well atm, (other than they're a bunch of thickos, bigots, etc)?

    Yes.
    They are offering attractive yet simplistic and unworkable solutions at a time of economic difficulty.
    As a non-lefty right of centre one time One Nation Tory who voted Remain (and genuinely loathes Farage), I think I have come to a conclusion as to why some vote Reform. It is simply that they are pissed off. Pissed off with the woke rachet, where they perceive that greater credence is given to immigrants, where statues of historic figures are torn down and those responsible are not prosecuted, where one might be cancelled for stating something that someone else decides is not the modern perspective, where policemen will arrest you for the mildest of "crimes", or perhaps for defending your own property, but real thugs thieves and burglars seem to get off scot-free, because the police claim they do not "have the resources". These are the types of reasons. Mainstream politician need to address them.
    I think those are all good points, I’d add politicians speaking legalese as another reason; unable to talk straight (disproven claims of “far right thuggery” aside)
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,533
    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Why Gen X is the real loser generation
    Don’t cry for millennials or Gen Z. Save your pity for those in their 50s" (£)

    https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/05/08/why-gen-x-is-the-real-loser-generation

    Oooooh, that includes me !!
    I thought you were a boomer. Is your birthdate before Jan 1 1965?
    No, it most certainly is not.
    Congratulations! I assumed because you had retired, but you know what they say about "assume" :(
    Indeed 😉

    I am on the borderline, September 65. And only been retired a few months.
    I’ve had a big long think about all this, as I walked around nw1 for the last two hours, observing all the changes - the comings and goings, the grottiness and the prettiness, the beautiful wisteria on the pastel pink townhouses - and I’ve come to the firm conclusion that getting old is shit
    Still, closer to oblivion, so there is that.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,747
    Someone said youth is wasted on the young. Can't remember who.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,023

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,375
    Dumb as a sack of bricks...

    @atrupar.com‬

    REPORTER: You just announced a new nominee for US Surgeon General who never finished her residency, and is not a practicing physician. So can you explain why you picked her to be America's top doctor?

    TRUMP: Because Bobby thought she was fantastic ... I don't know her

    https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3looavajsvs2p
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,429
    edited May 9

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Why Gen X is the real loser generation
    Don’t cry for millennials or Gen Z. Save your pity for those in their 50s" (£)

    https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/05/08/why-gen-x-is-the-real-loser-generation

    Oooooh, that includes me !!
    I thought you were a boomer. Is your birthdate before Jan 1 1965?
    No, it most certainly is not.
    Congratulations! I assumed because you had retired, but you know what they say about "assume" :(
    Indeed 😉

    I am on the borderline, September 65. And only been retired a few months.
    I’ve had a big long think about all this, as I walked around nw1 for the last two hours, observing all the changes - the comings and goings, the grottiness and the prettiness, the beautiful wisteria on the pastel pink townhouses - and I’ve come to the firm conclusion that getting old is shit
    Still, closer to oblivion, so there is that.
    We don’t die. We return to the great but invisible sea of consciousness - the aquifer which underlies all, glittering and horizonless - we are like raindrops falling into the oceans, whence we came

    “ 1 In the begynnynge God created heaven and erth.
    2 The erth was voyde and emptie, and darcknesse was vpon the depe, and the spirite of God moved vpon the waters”
  • isamisam Posts: 41,510
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Why Gen X is the real loser generation
    Don’t cry for millennials or Gen Z. Save your pity for those in their 50s" (£)

    https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/05/08/why-gen-x-is-the-real-loser-generation

    Oooooh, that includes me !!
    I thought you were a boomer. Is your birthdate before Jan 1 1965?
    No, it most certainly is not.
    Congratulations! I assumed because you had retired, but you know what they say about "assume" :(
    Indeed 😉

    I am on the borderline, September 65. And only been retired a few months.
    Hope the next two years are nice and active. Once you have passed the retirement + 2 your longevity outlook improves!
    Thank you, yes, so far very active and the weather has helped.

    A couple of things happened at work last September which pissed me off and made me decide to pull my plans forward two years. My wife suggested going as the weather improves and I am so glad I did. I have done so much walking so far and we are off out this afternoon for another walk.
    I’m almost incapable of reading someone talk of “doing a lot of walking/going for a walk” without replacing the ‘l’ with an ‘n’… rarely fails to brighten my day!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,525
    edited May 9

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:



    I’ll still be shopping at Tesco, going swimming sometimes, nibbling nuts in the afternoon, drinking red wine from a sherry glass, I’ll still be doing these same things, but I’ll be doing them in a world that has changed.

    This is faintly tragic, and also ever so slightly provincial, and non-U. But, then again, you are a retired accountant.

    I agree the post WWII world is now over. VE Day 80 didn't have the spark it should, and it's just moving into history now.
    That was my point - and more specifically 'feeling' it as opposed to understanding it in the abstract.

    Always a point to my contributions. I'm never just prattling away for the sake of it.
    I now have a weird image in my head of a not terribly old, but fading fast, retired accountant, with his slippers on, and on a reclining SCS leather armchair, sipping some cheap red plonk out of a sherry glass, whilst watching re-runs of Poirot and a Stennah Stairlift brochure on his lap.
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does the centre-left have any explanations for why Ref is doing so well atm, (other than they're a bunch of thickos, bigots, etc)?

    Yes.
    They are offering attractive yet simplistic and unworkable solutions at a time of economic difficulty.
    As a non-lefty right of centre one time One Nation Tory who voted Remain (and genuinely loathes Farage), I think I have come to a conclusion as to why some vote Reform. It is simply that they are pissed off. Pissed off with the woke rachet, where they perceive that greater credence is given to immigrants, where statues of historic figures are torn down and those responsible are not prosecuted, where one might be cancelled for stating something that someone else decides is not the modern perspective, where policemen will arrest you for the mildest of "crimes", or perhaps for defending your own property, but real thugs thieves and burglars seem to get off scot-free, because the police claim they do not "have the resources". These are the types of reasons. Mainstream politician need to address them.
    The problem with tackling those "issues" is made more difficult because they are right wing Social Media urban myths. The truth is too boring for the click bait circuit.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,496

    Andy_JS said:

    Any guesses who reportedly just said this?

    “You have to understand that we won a massive majority and we have absolute, ultimate control.”

    Palpatine?
    I was figuring Davros
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,296
    berberian said: "I've had squirrel. Very tasty."

    Audie Murphy was very fond of squirrel: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Audie_Murphy
  • isamisam Posts: 41,510
    edited May 9
    Leon said:

    I read a brilliant substack observation by novelist Tim Lott the other day. On this subject: ageing

    He said “I often have this wilful delusion that getting old is like an illness. And one day soon I will wake up and feel better. And I will be 34 again”

    I live under the delusion that I’m not definitely going to age, that there’s a possibility I might dodge it (and to a certain extent dying). The epitome of wishful thinking!

    In the real world though, I just don’t buy the getting fat etc as you get older thing.. and if you stay relatively fit, and eat healthily, you don’t feel old.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,429
    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:



    I’ll still be shopping at Tesco, going swimming sometimes, nibbling nuts in the afternoon, drinking red wine from a sherry glass, I’ll still be doing these same things, but I’ll be doing them in a world that has changed.

    This is faintly tragic, and also ever so slightly provincial, and non-U. But, then again, you are a retired accountant.

    I agree the post WWII world is now over. VE Day 80 didn't have the spark it should, and it's just moving into history now.
    That was my point - and more specifically 'feeling' it as opposed to understanding it in the abstract.

    Always a point to my contributions. I'm never just prattling away for the sake of it.
    I now have a weird image in my head of a not terribly old, but fading fast, retired accountant, with his slippers on, and on a reclining SCS leather armchair, sipping some cheap red plonk out of a sherry glass, whilst watching re-runs of Poirot and a Stennah Stairlift brochure on his lap.
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does the centre-left have any explanations for why Ref is doing so well atm, (other than they're a bunch of thickos, bigots, etc)?

    Yes.
    They are offering attractive yet simplistic and unworkable solutions at a time of economic difficulty.
    As a non-lefty right of centre one time One Nation Tory who voted Remain (and genuinely loathes Farage), I think I have come to a conclusion as to why some vote Reform. It is simply that they are pissed off. Pissed off with the woke rachet, where they perceive that greater credence is given to immigrants, where statues of historic figures are torn down and those responsible are not prosecuted, where one might be cancelled for stating something that someone else decides is not the modern perspective, where policemen will arrest you for the mildest of "crimes", or perhaps for defending your own property, but real thugs thieves and burglars seem to get off scot-free, because the police claim they do not "have the resources". These are the types of reasons. Mainstream politician need to address them.
    The problem with tackling those "issues" is made more difficult because they are right wing Social Media urban myths. The truth is too boring for the click bait circuit.
    You think it’s a social media urban myth that the police aren’t bothering to investigate phone theft and bike theft and car theft? And shoplifting?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,679

    Sean_F said:

    viewcode said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    Eabhal said:

    FPT @Luckyguy1983

    Net Zero is starting to now run into economic reality with electric cars and deindustrialisation in a way it wasn't in the 2010s.

    To go further, we will have to accept real economic damage being done now, with the hope that our global leadership on it galvanises a faster transition to Net Zero worldwide.

    Will we?

    To put the actual argument to one side, it was interesting to find that even Reform voters aren't that fussed about Net Zero - only 9% picked it as an issue. It's very much an internet meme.

    Yet Farage considers this the "next Brexit". That feels like a fumble to me. They should stick to national identity and immigration.

    https://www.ft.com/content/ecb81e0e-11f6-469b-86ef-8e29996b9019
    https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/2cyg5l1m/more-in-common-post-election-briefing-4.pdf
    I'd say that Lincs is the one to watch, again. The new Reform Mayor Andrea Jenkins, and also her boss (?) Zia Yusuf, have been leading with green-bashing, and Lincs is the only place where they have both Mayor and control of the Council.

    Yes Lincs is reported to now have 12k green jobs and a green economy worth £1.2bn, according to the Local Enterprise Partnership.

    The low carbon and energy economy, already worth £1.2bn per annum to Greater Lincolnshire, holds exceptional potential offering an unprecedented level of private investment of £60bn over the next fifteen years.
    https://www.greaterlincolnshirelep.co.uk/priorities-and-plans/game-changers/green-energy/

    If they want to recreate the 1970s or 1950s, that might not be the place to start.
    Apparently net zero costs a bomb, right, so we're going to scrap that woke lefty nonsense, right, and go back to the good old days with British power stations burning British coal, right, who wants wind turbines or pylons anyway, right.

    I know that "Net Zero" is completely the wrong messaging, but the goal of energy independence is a good one. The environment needs to be tret as a bonus rather than the objective. Green energy is how we regain our place of power, no longer at the whim of Putin or money markets, we not only generate free energy but we can design build and export the technology.

    It should be a no-brainer. But "investment" is seen to be "subsidy" and thus "who will pay for it"
    Except that it isn't "free" energy and the panels are largely made in China, so probably not exactly reliable and secure, and quite arguable about how "green" the manufacture of said panels is.

    The most obvious self-sufficiency that this government seems to enjoy saying "go fuck yourself" to, is food production. Hopefully unlikely that we would suffer a food blockade as we did in WW2, but if we did we would starve to death pretty quickly. Two Tier Kier seems to be keen to make us starve a lot quicker
    Autarky positions like this quickly become absurd. You're arguing for a significant reduction in energy consumption and compulsory veganism.

    Solar lasts 25 years+ at 80% efficiency - if China cuts off supply, it will have no material impact on our energy generation for decades, by which time we'll be importing them from someone else. With food, most of our critical imports are from European countries (mainly veg). On gas, most of it comes from Norway.
    It isn't an "autarcky position" you pillock, it is common sense critique based on historical fact that being unable to produce a substantial part of our own food is not in any way desirable, quite apart from the environmental cost of importing food that can be grown here, and it's juxtaposition with the attitude of the current government with their much less rational claims on "energy security". As for China cutting off supply of panels, this is highly unlikely, but the point remains that the environmental credentials of these products are highly dubious. Goofy pillocks like Miliband arguing that "energy self-sufficiency" is a main reason for his obsession with randomly covering rural areas in solar panels to line the pockets the greedy is disingenuous in the extreme.
    We haven't been self-sufficient on food since about 1805.

    If you're moving to an enviornmental position, a massive tax on meat consumption (or at least a reduction in subsidies) would meet both objectives. About 40% of our crops are used to feed animals, and it opens up pastoral land for solar farms and reduces methane emissions.
    If memory serves we got close during ww2, but not completely and including the republic of Ireland. It involved a lot of people growing their own food. this was forced by the fact that food imports from Europe shrank to zero and from other countries were endangered by U-boat.

    Happy to be corrected if wrong
    Pretty sure though UK internal food supply got much more efficient, despite rationing & shortages we were still nowhere close to being self sufficient. According to Wiki imports made up 50% of Britain’s food supply with 22m tons pa, by war’s end it was 12m tons pa.
    No doubt there’s an alternative history somewhere where AH flung all Germany’s naval resources at U boats rather than battleships and Sealions.
    I don't think there's any scenario in which Nazi Germany could have won the War. Taking on simultaneously, the British Empire and Commonwealth, the Soviet Union, and the USA, could only end one way.

    Logistics are not everything, but they're probably about 75% of winning.
    Which begs the question why he did.
    Fascists and national socialists buy into the Spartan Mirage. Wars are won by physical toughness, total cruelty, and racial superiority, as opposed to ensuring your soldiers have petrol, food, and munitions in sufficient quantities.

    By September 1939, Germany was bankrupt and Hitler had to roll the dice. Then, he kept rolling them.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,023
    edited May 9
    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Why Gen X is the real loser generation
    Don’t cry for millennials or Gen Z. Save your pity for those in their 50s" (£)

    https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/05/08/why-gen-x-is-the-real-loser-generation

    Oooooh, that includes me !!
    I thought you were a boomer. Is your birthdate before Jan 1 1965?
    No, it most certainly is not.
    Congratulations! I assumed because you had retired, but you know what they say about "assume" :(
    Indeed 😉

    I am on the borderline, September 65. And only been retired a few months.
    I’ve had a big long think about all this, as I walked around nw1 for the last two hours, observing all the changes - the comings and goings, the grottiness and the prettiness, the beautiful wisteria on the pastel pink townhouses - and I’ve come to the firm conclusion that getting old is shit
    More so if you fight it. If you were to spend time sitting quietly and observing things (rather than always trying to join in) I think you'd find some inner joy.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,525
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,510
    Jonathan Reynolds on 7 April: no US deal is worth it if the 10% tariffs stay.

    Jonathan Reynolds yesterday: It’s a great deal!

    The man who didn’t realise for 20 years that he wasn’t a qualified solicitor is now running Britain’s global trade 😐

    God help us.


    https://x.com/kemibadenoch/status/1920791259343409594?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,184

    MattW said:

    Hmmm. Some Usonian commentators on the Not-a-Trade-Deal seem to be getting Rolls-Royce Motor Cars, with which Mr Chump is obsessed, with Rolls-Royce Holdings.

    And not noticing that in their desire for a $5bn beef market in the UK, there's only an additional 13,000 tonne quota in each direction.

    The question - from me pastoral farmer - to UK government, if you say no watering down on food standards on imported meats, how is this policed?

    The beef produced using same rules and standards in UK? How’s that proved?
    “Hey. These chickens not washed in Chlorine were they? “No of course not. “Oh. Soz. Okay then.”

    Truth is, when you eat chlorinated food you wouldn’t notice a difference.
    When you buy salad in bags from supermarkets, you know that’s been chlorine washed same as US chickens, don’t you? EU didn’t ban that practice.

    Nor is the chlorine harmful. When we were in EU it was banned to use chlorine for poultry, and (US would say conveniently) imports banned from countries who do it. But Chlorine washed salad isn’t banned, because EU didn’t ban because chlorine washing isn’t safe, they banned it because it can be used to cover up other production values not being followed properly, meaning no fair playing field in doing right thing by covering up when you skipped corners to save money. The banning of US chicken is food standards proving political position, nothing to do with taste, or science saying chlorine washing is very bad.
    In the same way as it is policed by the EU - who have the same rules we have. There are specialist beef producers in the US who demand a premium price for non hormone treated beef and whose whole business model is based on that condition.
    No. I’m still sceptical how meat and dairy imports are supervised properly and scrutinised properly. After your Brexit Richard, normal rules like you pointed to just don’t apply anymore at UK border. Are borders resourced enough to do all the checking the laws say must happen, or doing it properly long since died in all the delays and switch to checking happening more now at destination rather than border?

    Do we really think the ban on personal imports from EU of all meat and cheese is at all policeable, when illegal imports were already on the rise before they brought this in as added checking.

    Lord Hague of Richmond one once said we only get foot and mouth under Labour, and this likely to get proved again very soon.

    https://thefarmingforum.co.uk/index.php?threads/unregulated-meat-imports.403001/
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,023
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:



    I’ll still be shopping at Tesco, going swimming sometimes, nibbling nuts in the afternoon, drinking red wine from a sherry glass, I’ll still be doing these same things, but I’ll be doing them in a world that has changed.

    This is faintly tragic, and also ever so slightly provincial, and non-U. But, then again, you are a retired accountant.

    I agree the post WWII world is now over. VE Day 80 didn't have the spark it should, and it's just moving into history now.
    That was my point - and more specifically 'feeling' it as opposed to understanding it in the abstract.

    Always a point to my contributions. I'm never just prattling away for the sake of it.
    I now have a weird image in my head of a not terribly old, but fading fast, retired accountant, with his slippers on, and on a reclining SCS leather armchair, sipping some cheap red plonk out of a sherry glass, whilst watching re-runs of Poirot and a Stennah Stairlift brochure on his lap.
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does the centre-left have any explanations for why Ref is doing so well atm, (other than they're a bunch of thickos, bigots, etc)?

    Yes.
    They are offering attractive yet simplistic and unworkable solutions at a time of economic difficulty.
    As a non-lefty right of centre one time One Nation Tory who voted Remain (and genuinely loathes Farage), I think I have come to a conclusion as to why some vote Reform. It is simply that they are pissed off. Pissed off with the woke rachet, where they perceive that greater credence is given to immigrants, where statues of historic figures are torn down and those responsible are not prosecuted, where one might be cancelled for stating something that someone else decides is not the modern perspective, where policemen will arrest you for the mildest of "crimes", or perhaps for defending your own property, but real thugs thieves and burglars seem to get off scot-free, because the police claim they do not "have the resources". These are the types of reasons. Mainstream politician need to address them.
    The problem with tackling those "issues" is made more difficult because they are right wing Social Media urban myths. The truth is too boring for the click bait circuit.
    You think it’s a social media urban myth that the police aren’t bothering to investigate phone theft and bike theft and car theft? And shoplifting?
    A car was nicked over the road from me. The cops were all over it.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,023
    edited May 9
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Why Gen X is the real loser generation
    Don’t cry for millennials or Gen Z. Save your pity for those in their 50s" (£)

    https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/05/08/why-gen-x-is-the-real-loser-generation

    Oooooh, that includes me !!
    I thought you were a boomer. Is your birthdate before Jan 1 1965?
    No, it most certainly is not.
    Congratulations! I assumed because you had retired, but you know what they say about "assume" :(
    Indeed 😉

    I am on the borderline, September 65. And only been retired a few months.
    I’ve had a big long think about all this, as I walked around nw1 for the last two hours, observing all the changes - the comings and goings, the grottiness and the prettiness, the beautiful wisteria on the pastel pink townhouses - and I’ve come to the firm conclusion that getting old is shit
    Still, closer to oblivion, so there is that.
    We don’t die. We return to the great but invisible sea of consciousness - the aquifer which underlies all, glittering and horizonless - we are like raindrops falling into the oceans, whence we came

    “ 1 In the begynnynge God created heaven and erth.
    2 The erth was voyde and emptie, and darcknesse was vpon the depe, and the spirite of God moved vpon the waters”
    Getting old may be shit - but as I edge reluctantly into my 50s, my list of not-quite-functioning body parts getting ever lengthier, I conclude that I am happier than I have ever been in life. Which isn't to say life is blissful all the time. But most of the time it is both pretty enjoyable and existentially fulfilling. Before I met my wife it was sometimes enjoyable but never existentially fulfilling; when my kids were small it was mostly existenially fulfilling but only quite rarely enjoyable. But the kids are all double figures ages now, and parenting is both fulfilling AND enjoyable.
    And also, I am that bit richer than I was and can afford stuff. That helps too. Although on the flipside having children continues to be impoverishingly expensive.

    To illustrate: I've just come back from playing padel with some friends. Now I'm going to have a rollmop herring and then spend half an hour in the hot tub, before picking my daughter up. Then I'm going to take a different daughter to a music performance she's doing, while a wife takes yet another daughter off to go hiking through the Peak District for the weekend on a practice DofE expedition. Then I'll return to take some of the remaining daughters to cricket practice. And then we'll get a Thai takeaway for tea. My fifties are going well so far.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,396
    edited May 9
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Any guesses who reportedly just said this?

    “You have to understand that we won a massive majority and we have absolute, ultimate control.”

    Palpatine?
    The new Reform UK leader of Kent council.

    https://www.kentonline.co.uk/kent/news/new-kcc-reform-uk-leader-reveals-plan-for-council-324062/
    'She said: “You have to understand that we won a massive majority and we have absolute, ultimate control.”
    Mrs Kemkaran vowed to remove the Ukraine flag from the chamber, open the council’s books to auditors and review working practices across the authority.
    Later she emerged and said: “This is my first day in a brand new job and you wouldn’t expect me to have all the answers.

    “We are going to get the auditors to come in and take a leaf out of Elon Musk’s book and appoint some sort of DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) to go through everything in detail and find out where the money is being spent and whether we can make any changes and make life better for the residents.”

    The new KCC leader then suggests her Reform administration will lead Kent in a similar way to Trump is leading the US'
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,525
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:



    I’ll still be shopping at Tesco, going swimming sometimes, nibbling nuts in the afternoon, drinking red wine from a sherry glass, I’ll still be doing these same things, but I’ll be doing them in a world that has changed.

    This is faintly tragic, and also ever so slightly provincial, and non-U. But, then again, you are a retired accountant.

    I agree the post WWII world is now over. VE Day 80 didn't have the spark it should, and it's just moving into history now.
    That was my point - and more specifically 'feeling' it as opposed to understanding it in the abstract.

    Always a point to my contributions. I'm never just prattling away for the sake of it.
    I now have a weird image in my head of a not terribly old, but fading fast, retired accountant, with his slippers on, and on a reclining SCS leather armchair, sipping some cheap red plonk out of a sherry glass, whilst watching re-runs of Poirot and a Stennah Stairlift brochure on his lap.
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does the centre-left have any explanations for why Ref is doing so well atm, (other than they're a bunch of thickos, bigots, etc)?

    Yes.
    They are offering attractive yet simplistic and unworkable solutions at a time of economic difficulty.
    As a non-lefty right of centre one time One Nation Tory who voted Remain (and genuinely loathes Farage), I think I have come to a conclusion as to why some vote Reform. It is simply that they are pissed off. Pissed off with the woke rachet, where they perceive that greater credence is given to immigrants, where statues of historic figures are torn down and those responsible are not prosecuted, where one might be cancelled for stating something that someone else decides is not the modern perspective, where policemen will arrest you for the mildest of "crimes", or perhaps for defending your own property, but real thugs thieves and burglars seem to get off scot-free, because the police claim they do not "have the resources". These are the types of reasons. Mainstream politician need to address them.
    The problem with tackling those "issues" is made more difficult because they are right wing Social Media urban myths. The truth is too boring for the click bait circuit.
    You think it’s a social media urban myth that the police aren’t bothering to investigate phone theft and bike theft and car theft? And shoplifting?
    I agree those are real issues, but the rest are myths.

    What statue has been pulled down and those responsible not prosecuted for example?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,429
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Why Gen X is the real loser generation
    Don’t cry for millennials or Gen Z. Save your pity for those in their 50s" (£)

    https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/05/08/why-gen-x-is-the-real-loser-generation

    Oooooh, that includes me !!
    I thought you were a boomer. Is your birthdate before Jan 1 1965?
    No, it most certainly is not.
    Congratulations! I assumed because you had retired, but you know what they say about "assume" :(
    Indeed 😉

    I am on the borderline, September 65. And only been retired a few months.
    I’ve had a big long think about all this, as I walked around nw1 for the last two hours, observing all the changes - the comings and goings, the grottiness and the prettiness, the beautiful wisteria on the pastel pink townhouses - and I’ve come to the firm conclusion that getting old is shit
    More so if you fight it. If you were to spend time sitting quietly and observing things (rather than always trying to join in) I think you'd find some inner joy.
    What is this PB idea that I’m a grumpy old git that doesn’t enjoy life?!

    I love life. I love MY life in particular. I am literally paid to do what I would do anyway given the chance - travel. It’s my greatest pleasure. I am paid to do the thing I most adore doing

    You gotta remember I come on here to relieve boredom and get in arguments and vent at useless politicians

    In real life I’m quite different. Effervescent
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,396
    algarkirk said:

    Question for the panel. On current form the 2029 election will be mega on the need for tactical voting. Is there a fairly simple formula covering most seats in England (S and W is too hard for me to think about) which guides as to how to vote tactically against Reform, for people who don't have a PhD in psephology?

    Eg for starters:
    In all seats where LDs are first or second, vote LD
    In all seats where Labour is first vote Labour
    In all seats where Tory is first and LD not second, just guess at random

    Would that be enough?

    No, in the latter scenario like my seat where Tories are first and Reform were second at the GE you would have to vote Tory or get a Reform MP otherwise
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,666

    rkrkrk said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does the centre-left have any explanations for why Ref is doing so well atm, (other than they're a bunch of thickos, bigots, etc)?

    Its not a great mystery is it?

    Conservatives are not just rubbish but discredited and out of ideas.
    Labour are a fraction better but also out of both ideas and courage.
    Workers are unhappy their share of the economy goes to the retired.
    The retired are unhappy with immigration and the pace of social change.

    Not sure what it has to do with the centre left, anymore than the far left, centre right, centre or far right.
    That accords with my view on Reform’s rise (also note the Farage phenomenon - although i would argue he puts off as many as he pleases).

    To a certain extent this has been the case since Brexit. A lot of people feel left behind or out of time. Farage (and indeed Johnson before him) suggest that there are simple answers to these questions and folk believe them. Is it populism? Probably. Will they get fail if they ever achieve office? Almost certainly. Although like those types always do there will be a scapegoat - whether that be foreigners, the deep state or some other nonsense.

    I wish there was sn accepted view in society that if someone suggests that there is an easy solution to a hard protracted issue everyone realises straight away that they are full of it and they can be safely ignored.
    I actually think there are some easy solutions for the UK.

    Lots of housebuilding. Actually building rather than talking about it.
    Invest in infrastructure. And reduce cost of doing so by relaxing controls.
    Invest in green tech and university education to pay our way in the world.

    I don't think any of that is actually difficult or risky, it is just electorally unpopular.
    From a new, apparently smart Labour MP;

    https://substack.com/home/post/p-162979594

    The TLDR is
    more housing, so it's cheaper
    more green energy, so it's cheaper
    more good non-graduate jobs, by infrastructure investment

    This is both sensible and (broadly, with caveats) what the government is seeking to do. Whether it works sufficiently by 2028/9 remains to be seen.
    What is the Government doing to do it though?

    Saying we should build houses is one thing.
    Reforming planning so houses can be cut with less red tape is another.

    I see a lot of the former, not much of the latter.

    To quote a late philosopher, Mr E. Presley, we need a little less conversation and a little more action please.
    They're trying. Just today Sadiq Khan announced building on the greenbelt.
    But wish it was going faster. We have far too many consultations which ordinary people don't have time to contribute to any way but hold everything up...
    Announced one scheme? That doesn't scratch the surface of what is needed.

    Or announced structural reform and a change in the law? That is what is needed.

    They know what they need to do, but they're not doing it.
    Yes, there is a new law coming: https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/five-key-changes-planning-and-infrastructure-bill
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,429
    isam said:

    Leon said:

    I read a brilliant substack observation by novelist Tim Lott the other day. On this subject: ageing

    He said “I often have this wilful delusion that getting old is like an illness. And one day soon I will wake up and feel better. And I will be 34 again”

    I live under the delusion that I’m not definitely going to age, that there’s a possibility I might dodge it (and to a certain extent dying). The epitome of wishful thinking!

    In the real world though, I just don’t buy the getting fat etc as you get older thing.. and if you stay relatively fit, and eat healthily, you don’t feel old.
    Hah. Martin Amis said exactly that. When he was young or even middle aged he said “I kinda convince myself that ageing is something that happens to other people, it won’t happen to me. I’m different”

    And then he got old. And died

    I’ve just checked his age at death - 73

    And the age of his father Kingsley at death? - 73

    This is one piece of wisdom I’ve accrued of late. People tend to die the same age as their parents. Sons as fathers. Daughters as mothers. I’ve had a couple of good friends conk out far too early in recent years - and they both had fathers that died early - at the same age

    Genetics is Destiny
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,116
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:



    I’ll still be shopping at Tesco, going swimming sometimes, nibbling nuts in the afternoon, drinking red wine from a sherry glass, I’ll still be doing these same things, but I’ll be doing them in a world that has changed.

    This is faintly tragic, and also ever so slightly provincial, and non-U. But, then again, you are a retired accountant.

    I agree the post WWII world is now over. VE Day 80 didn't have the spark it should, and it's just moving into history now.
    That was my point - and more specifically 'feeling' it as opposed to understanding it in the abstract.

    Always a point to my contributions. I'm never just prattling away for the sake of it.
    I now have a weird image in my head of a not terribly old, but fading fast, retired accountant, with his slippers on, and on a reclining SCS leather armchair, sipping some cheap red plonk out of a sherry glass, whilst watching re-runs of Poirot and a Stennah Stairlift brochure on his lap.
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does the centre-left have any explanations for why Ref is doing so well atm, (other than they're a bunch of thickos, bigots, etc)?

    Yes.
    They are offering attractive yet simplistic and unworkable solutions at a time of economic difficulty.
    As a non-lefty right of centre one time One Nation Tory who voted Remain (and genuinely loathes Farage), I think I have come to a conclusion as to why some vote Reform. It is simply that they are pissed off. Pissed off with the woke rachet, where they perceive that greater credence is given to immigrants, where statues of historic figures are torn down and those responsible are not prosecuted, where one might be cancelled for stating something that someone else decides is not the modern perspective, where policemen will arrest you for the mildest of "crimes", or perhaps for defending your own property, but real thugs thieves and burglars seem to get off scot-free, because the police claim they do not "have the resources". These are the types of reasons. Mainstream politician need to address them.
    The problem with tackling those "issues" is made more difficult because they are right wing Social Media urban myths. The truth is too boring for the click bait circuit.
    You think it’s a social media urban myth that the police aren’t bothering to investigate phone theft and bike theft and car theft? And shoplifting?
    I agree those are real issues, but the rest are myths.

    What statue has been pulled down and those responsible not prosecuted for example?
    The people who pulled down the Colston statue were 'prosecuted' but the trial was allowed to be turned into a farce.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-59727161
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,429
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Why Gen X is the real loser generation
    Don’t cry for millennials or Gen Z. Save your pity for those in their 50s" (£)

    https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/05/08/why-gen-x-is-the-real-loser-generation

    Oooooh, that includes me !!
    I thought you were a boomer. Is your birthdate before Jan 1 1965?
    No, it most certainly is not.
    Congratulations! I assumed because you had retired, but you know what they say about "assume" :(
    Indeed 😉

    I am on the borderline, September 65. And only been retired a few months.
    I’ve had a big long think about all this, as I walked around nw1 for the last two hours, observing all the changes - the comings and goings, the grottiness and the prettiness, the beautiful wisteria on the pastel pink townhouses - and I’ve come to the firm conclusion that getting old is shit
    Still, closer to oblivion, so there is that.
    We don’t die. We return to the great but invisible sea of consciousness - the aquifer which underlies all, glittering and horizonless - we are like raindrops falling into the oceans, whence we came

    “ 1 In the begynnynge God created heaven and erth.
    2 The erth was voyde and emptie, and darcknesse was vpon the depe, and the spirite of God moved vpon the waters”
    Getting old may be shit - but as I edge reluctantly into my 50s, my list of not-quite-functioning body parts getting ever lengthier, I conclude that I am happier than I have ever been in life. Which isn't to say life is blissful all the time. But most of the time it is both pretty enjoyable and existentially fulfilling. Before I met my wife it was sometimes enjoyable but never existentially fulfilling; when my kids were small it was mostly existenially fulfilling but only quite rarely enjoyable. But the kids are all double figures ages now, and parenting is both fulfilling AND enjoyable.
    And also, I am that bit richer than I was and can afford stuff. That helps too. Although on the flipside having children continues to be impoverishingly expensive.

    To illustrate: I've just come back from playing padel with some friends. Now I'm going to have a rollmop herring and then spend half an hour in the hot tub, before picking my daughter up. Then I'm going to take a different daughter to a music performance she's doing, while a wife takes yet another daughter off to go hiking through the Peak District for the weekend on a practice DofE expedition. Then I'll return to take some of the remaining daughters to cricket practice. And then we'll get a Thai takeaway for tea. My fifties are going well so far.
    Hah. Good for you. My fifties were definitely my happiest decade. And as I move into the next decade things aren’t so bad at all

    That’s with the big exception of Covid. The locust years of 2020-22. They really were exceptionally miserable, for me at least
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,023
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Why Gen X is the real loser generation
    Don’t cry for millennials or Gen Z. Save your pity for those in their 50s" (£)

    https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/05/08/why-gen-x-is-the-real-loser-generation

    Oooooh, that includes me !!
    I thought you were a boomer. Is your birthdate before Jan 1 1965?
    No, it most certainly is not.
    Congratulations! I assumed because you had retired, but you know what they say about "assume" :(
    Indeed 😉

    I am on the borderline, September 65. And only been retired a few months.
    I’ve had a big long think about all this, as I walked around nw1 for the last two hours, observing all the changes - the comings and goings, the grottiness and the prettiness, the beautiful wisteria on the pastel pink townhouses - and I’ve come to the firm conclusion that getting old is shit
    More so if you fight it. If you were to spend time sitting quietly and observing things (rather than always trying to join in) I think you'd find some inner joy.
    What is this PB idea that I’m a grumpy old git that doesn’t enjoy life?!

    I love life. I love MY life in particular. I am literally paid to do what I would do anyway given the chance - travel. It’s my greatest pleasure. I am paid to do the thing I most adore doing

    You gotta remember I come on here to relieve boredom and get in arguments and vent at useless politicians

    In real life I’m quite different. Effervescent
    It's just there's a bleakness there under all the froth. Not everyone will sense it but I do. Anyway, enough, this is probably one of those things best left unexplored.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,525

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:



    I’ll still be shopping at Tesco, going swimming sometimes, nibbling nuts in the afternoon, drinking red wine from a sherry glass, I’ll still be doing these same things, but I’ll be doing them in a world that has changed.

    This is faintly tragic, and also ever so slightly provincial, and non-U. But, then again, you are a retired accountant.

    I agree the post WWII world is now over. VE Day 80 didn't have the spark it should, and it's just moving into history now.
    That was my point - and more specifically 'feeling' it as opposed to understanding it in the abstract.

    Always a point to my contributions. I'm never just prattling away for the sake of it.
    I now have a weird image in my head of a not terribly old, but fading fast, retired accountant, with his slippers on, and on a reclining SCS leather armchair, sipping some cheap red plonk out of a sherry glass, whilst watching re-runs of Poirot and a Stennah Stairlift brochure on his lap.
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does the centre-left have any explanations for why Ref is doing so well atm, (other than they're a bunch of thickos, bigots, etc)?

    Yes.
    They are offering attractive yet simplistic and unworkable solutions at a time of economic difficulty.
    As a non-lefty right of centre one time One Nation Tory who voted Remain (and genuinely loathes Farage), I think I have come to a conclusion as to why some vote Reform. It is simply that they are pissed off. Pissed off with the woke rachet, where they perceive that greater credence is given to immigrants, where statues of historic figures are torn down and those responsible are not prosecuted, where one might be cancelled for stating something that someone else decides is not the modern perspective, where policemen will arrest you for the mildest of "crimes", or perhaps for defending your own property, but real thugs thieves and burglars seem to get off scot-free, because the police claim they do not "have the resources". These are the types of reasons. Mainstream politician need to address them.
    The problem with tackling those "issues" is made more difficult because they are right wing Social Media urban myths. The truth is too boring for the click bait circuit.
    You think it’s a social media urban myth that the police aren’t bothering to investigate phone theft and bike theft and car theft? And shoplifting?
    I agree those are real issues, but the rest are myths.

    What statue has been pulled down and those responsible not prosecuted for example?
    The people who pulled down the Colston statue were 'prosecuted' but the trial was allowed to be turned into a farce.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-59727161
    So they were certainly prosecuted, and had due process.

    What statue was pulled down without prosecution?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,466

    MattW said:

    Hmmm. Some Usonian commentators on the Not-a-Trade-Deal seem to be getting Rolls-Royce Motor Cars, with which Mr Chump is obsessed, with Rolls-Royce Holdings.

    And not noticing that in their desire for a $5bn beef market in the UK, there's only an additional 13,000 tonne quota in each direction.

    The question - from me pastoral farmer - to UK government, if you say no watering down on food standards on imported meats, how is this policed?

    The beef produced using same rules and standards in UK? How’s that proved?
    “Hey. These chickens not washed in Chlorine were they? “No of course not. “Oh. Soz. Okay then.”

    Truth is, when you eat chlorinated food you wouldn’t notice a difference.
    When you buy salad in bags from supermarkets, you know that’s been chlorine washed same as US chickens, don’t you? EU didn’t ban that practice.

    Nor is the chlorine harmful. When we were in EU it was banned to use chlorine for poultry, and (US would say conveniently) imports banned from countries who do it. But Chlorine washed salad isn’t banned, because EU didn’t ban because chlorine washing isn’t safe, they banned it because it can be used to cover up other production values not being followed properly, meaning no fair playing field in doing right thing by covering up when you skipped corners to save money. The banning of US chicken is food standards proving political position, nothing to do with taste, or science saying chlorine washing is very bad.
    In the same way as it is policed by the EU - who have the same rules we have. There are specialist beef producers in the US who demand a premium price for non hormone treated beef and whose whole business model is based on that condition.
    No. I’m still sceptical how meat and dairy imports are supervised properly and scrutinised properly. After your Brexit Richard, normal rules like you pointed to just don’t apply anymore at UK border. Are borders resourced enough to do all the checking the laws say must happen, or doing it properly long since died in all the delays and switch to checking happening more now at destination rather than border?

    Do we really think the ban on personal imports from EU of all meat and cheese is at all policeable, when illegal imports were already on the rise before they brought this in as added checking.

    Lord Hague of Richmond one once said we only get foot and mouth under Labour, and this likely to get proved again very soon.

    https://thefarmingforum.co.uk/index.php?threads/unregulated-meat-imports.403001/
    Regulations are enforced according to the recency of the last major disaster and the cost of doing so. See Grenfell.

    One wonders about the levels of testing, and how much self-certification is going on.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,966
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Any guesses who reportedly just said this?

    “You have to understand that we won a massive majority and we have absolute, ultimate control.”

    Palpatine?
    The new Reform UK leader of Kent council.

    https://www.kentonline.co.uk/kent/news/new-kcc-reform-uk-leader-reveals-plan-for-council-324062/
    'She said: “You have to understand that we won a massive majority and we have absolute, ultimate control.”
    Mrs Kemkaran vowed to remove the Ukraine flag from the chamber, open the council’s books to auditors and review working practices across the authority.
    Later she emerged and said: “This is my first day in a brand new job and you wouldn’t expect me to have all the answers.

    “We are going to get the auditors to come in and take a leaf out of Elon Musk’s book and appoint some sort of DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) to go through everything in detail and find out where the money is being spent and whether we can make any changes and make life better for the residents.”

    The new KCC leader then suggests her Reform administration will lead Kent in a similar way to Trump is leading the US'
    She’s going to be disappointed when she discovers it’s mainly spent on social care for elderly reform voters
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,429
    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    Brutal but eloquent. And fair

    On top of all these failings - and they are grave - starmer is a priggish and reeking hypocrite. Lecturing the Tories for their venality then as soon as he reached power grabbing all the freebies going right down to designer spectacles. And he’s loaded. What a contemptible wanker
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,747
    edited May 9
    FPT
    vik said:

    There doesn't appear to have been any previous discussion here about the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse Scottish Parliament byelection on 5 June 2025, so I'm posting my thoughts below.

    I've put a small $50 bet on Reform winning the byelection at odds of 11.0

    Current bookie odds range from 8 to 11.0 ( https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/european-politics/scottish-politics/hamilton-larkhall-and-stonehouse-by-election ).

    At the 2021 election, the constituency votes were SNP 46%, Lab 34%, Cons 18%, LD 3% (only 4 candidates stood for the constituency). The regional votes were SNP 41%, Lab 25%, Cons 22%, Lib Dem 2%, Greens 5%, Others 5%.

    There is a large field of 10 candidates for the byelection, so possibly, the 2025 byelection votes might be closer to the regional 2021 votes, meaning part of Labour vote getting spread between Greens & others.

    Reform have been making rapid gains in the opinion polls for the next Scottish Parliament election, and the most recent Survation poll from 2-5 May puts them at 19%. It's possible that by June, they may be even higher than 19%. The SNP meanwhile has been on a downward trajectory from the 48% constituency vote in 2021 to 33% currently. ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Scottish_Parliament_election )

    I think it's possible that Reform could pull off another result similar to Runcorn & outperform both SNP & Labour in a byelection. It could even be easier compared to Runcorn, if the "anti-Reform" vote is split between SNP & Labour.

    Reading this news article in the Daily Record, I struck by this comment from the Reform candidate. He clearly "gets it" in terms of appealing to potential Reform voters unhappy about the UK's decline:

    Visiting Hamilton with Councillor Kerr, [Reform candidate Ross Lambie] showed closed shops along Quarry Street plus the prominent former Marks & Spencer unit in the Regent Centre plus the long-vacant Bairds department store, saying the latter “stands as one of many neglected eyesores in our town centre. Why did the SNP vote against spending the money to save it?”

    "The next Scottish challenge for Reform is the Hamilton, Stonehouse & Larkhall Holyrood by-election on 5 June. Farage is expected to campaign in the constituency and may well end up in a pub – he usually does – but this time he won’t have to hide. He might not be everyone’s cup of tea, but I still suspect he’ll still be bought a few pints."

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/scotland/2025/05/how-scotland-learned-to-love-nigel-farage
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,466
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:



    I’ll still be shopping at Tesco, going swimming sometimes, nibbling nuts in the afternoon, drinking red wine from a sherry glass, I’ll still be doing these same things, but I’ll be doing them in a world that has changed.

    This is faintly tragic, and also ever so slightly provincial, and non-U. But, then again, you are a retired accountant.

    I agree the post WWII world is now over. VE Day 80 didn't have the spark it should, and it's just moving into history now.
    That was my point - and more specifically 'feeling' it as opposed to understanding it in the abstract.

    Always a point to my contributions. I'm never just prattling away for the sake of it.
    I now have a weird image in my head of a not terribly old, but fading fast, retired accountant, with his slippers on, and on a reclining SCS leather armchair, sipping some cheap red plonk out of a sherry glass, whilst watching re-runs of Poirot and a Stennah Stairlift brochure on his lap.
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does the centre-left have any explanations for why Ref is doing so well atm, (other than they're a bunch of thickos, bigots, etc)?

    Yes.
    They are offering attractive yet simplistic and unworkable solutions at a time of economic difficulty.
    As a non-lefty right of centre one time One Nation Tory who voted Remain (and genuinely loathes Farage), I think I have come to a conclusion as to why some vote Reform. It is simply that they are pissed off. Pissed off with the woke rachet, where they perceive that greater credence is given to immigrants, where statues of historic figures are torn down and those responsible are not prosecuted, where one might be cancelled for stating something that someone else decides is not the modern perspective, where policemen will arrest you for the mildest of "crimes", or perhaps for defending your own property, but real thugs thieves and burglars seem to get off scot-free, because the police claim they do not "have the resources". These are the types of reasons. Mainstream politician need to address them.
    The problem with tackling those "issues" is made more difficult because they are right wing Social Media urban myths. The truth is too boring for the click bait circuit.
    You think it’s a social media urban myth that the police aren’t bothering to investigate phone theft and bike theft and car theft? And shoplifting?
    I agree those are real issues, but the rest are myths.

    What statue has been pulled down and those responsible not prosecuted for example?
    Last night, met up with an old friend. Her son was there - at Bristol uni. Quite keen on the statue thing. Was extremely interested in my idea to put up, as a replacement, a statue of Efunroye Tinubu.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,375
    Foxy said:

    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.

    And such a blessed relief after BoZo, Truss and Richi
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,582

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:



    I’ll still be shopping at Tesco, going swimming sometimes, nibbling nuts in the afternoon, drinking red wine from a sherry glass, I’ll still be doing these same things, but I’ll be doing them in a world that has changed.

    This is faintly tragic, and also ever so slightly provincial, and non-U. But, then again, you are a retired accountant.

    I agree the post WWII world is now over. VE Day 80 didn't have the spark it should, and it's just moving into history now.
    That was my point - and more specifically 'feeling' it as opposed to understanding it in the abstract.

    Always a point to my contributions. I'm never just prattling away for the sake of it.
    I now have a weird image in my head of a not terribly old, but fading fast, retired accountant, with his slippers on, and on a reclining SCS leather armchair, sipping some cheap red plonk out of a sherry glass, whilst watching re-runs of Poirot and a Stennah Stairlift brochure on his lap.
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does the centre-left have any explanations for why Ref is doing so well atm, (other than they're a bunch of thickos, bigots, etc)?

    Yes.
    They are offering attractive yet simplistic and unworkable solutions at a time of economic difficulty.
    As a non-lefty right of centre one time One Nation Tory who voted Remain (and genuinely loathes Farage), I think I have come to a conclusion as to why some vote Reform. It is simply that they are pissed off. Pissed off with the woke rachet, where they perceive that greater credence is given to immigrants, where statues of historic figures are torn down and those responsible are not prosecuted, where one might be cancelled for stating something that someone else decides is not the modern perspective, where policemen will arrest you for the mildest of "crimes", or perhaps for defending your own property, but real thugs thieves and burglars seem to get off scot-free, because the police claim they do not "have the resources". These are the types of reasons. Mainstream politician need to address them.
    The problem with tackling those "issues" is made more difficult because they are right wing Social Media urban myths. The truth is too boring for the click bait circuit.
    You think it’s a social media urban myth that the police aren’t bothering to investigate phone theft and bike theft and car theft? And shoplifting?
    I agree those are real issues, but the rest are myths.

    What statue has been pulled down and those responsible not prosecuted for example?
    The people who pulled down the Colston statue were 'prosecuted' but the trial was allowed to be turned into a farce.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-59727161
    But you are one of our foremost purveyors of right wing mythology and convenient stereotypes.

    TBF these narratives are justified by citations from the Daily Telegraph, the Mail and GB News. Also in all fairness, at least you don't share Andrew Tate's X account as reliable source material, some right wing sellers of snake oil do.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,510
    Leon said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    I read a brilliant substack observation by novelist Tim Lott the other day. On this subject: ageing

    He said “I often have this wilful delusion that getting old is like an illness. And one day soon I will wake up and feel better. And I will be 34 again”

    I live under the delusion that I’m not definitely going to age, that there’s a possibility I might dodge it (and to a certain extent dying). The epitome of wishful thinking!

    In the real world though, I just don’t buy the getting fat etc as you get older thing.. and if you stay relatively fit, and eat healthily, you don’t feel old.
    Hah. Martin Amis said exactly that. When he was young or even middle aged he said “I kinda convince myself that ageing is something that happens to other people, it won’t happen to me. I’m different”

    And then he got old. And died

    I’ve just checked his age at death - 73

    And the age of his father Kingsley at death? - 73

    This is one piece of wisdom I’ve accrued of late. People tend to die the same age as their parents. Sons as fathers. Daughters as mothers. I’ve had a couple of good friends conk out far too early in recent years - and they both had fathers that died early - at the same age

    Genetics is Destiny
    I’m hoping it doesn’t skip a generation, as my Grandad died very suddenly at 55 yet his three sons are all still alive in their 70s & 80s, each of whom have beaten cancer

    When I had a bad reaction to my Covid jab it was the first time I thought “I actually could die here”. Been very lucky I suppose
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,525
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Why Gen X is the real loser generation
    Don’t cry for millennials or Gen Z. Save your pity for those in their 50s" (£)

    https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/05/08/why-gen-x-is-the-real-loser-generation

    Oooooh, that includes me !!
    I thought you were a boomer. Is your birthdate before Jan 1 1965?
    No, it most certainly is not.
    Congratulations! I assumed because you had retired, but you know what they say about "assume" :(
    Indeed 😉

    I am on the borderline, September 65. And only been retired a few months.
    I’ve had a big long think about all this, as I walked around nw1 for the last two hours, observing all the changes - the comings and goings, the grottiness and the prettiness, the beautiful wisteria on the pastel pink townhouses - and I’ve come to the firm conclusion that getting old is shit
    Still, closer to oblivion, so there is that.
    We don’t die. We return to the great but invisible sea of consciousness - the aquifer which underlies all, glittering and horizonless - we are like raindrops falling into the oceans, whence we came

    “ 1 In the begynnynge God created heaven and erth.
    2 The erth was voyde and emptie, and darcknesse was vpon the depe, and the spirite of God moved vpon the waters”
    Getting old may be shit - but as I edge reluctantly into my 50s, my list of not-quite-functioning body parts getting ever lengthier, I conclude that I am happier than I have ever been in life. Which isn't to say life is blissful all the time. But most of the time it is both pretty enjoyable and existentially fulfilling. Before I met my wife it was sometimes enjoyable but never existentially fulfilling; when my kids were small it was mostly existenially fulfilling but only quite rarely enjoyable. But the kids are all double figures ages now, and parenting is both fulfilling AND enjoyable.
    And also, I am that bit richer than I was and can afford stuff. That helps too. Although on the flipside having children continues to be impoverishingly expensive.

    To illustrate: I've just come back from playing padel with some friends. Now I'm going to have a rollmop herring and then spend half an hour in the hot tub, before picking my daughter up. Then I'm going to take a different daughter to a music performance she's doing, while a wife takes yet another daughter off to go hiking through the Peak District for the weekend on a practice DofE expedition. Then I'll return to take some of the remaining daughters to cricket practice. And then we'll get a Thai takeaway for tea. My fifties are going well so far.
    Yes, and generally that is the pattern.

    https://www.nicenet.ca/articles/are-older-adults-the-happiest-age-group#:~:text=The research suggests that our,mid-life around age 50.&text=The U-shape pattern is,sense of worth, and happiness.

    Of course not everyone has the pleasure of such domestic tasks, which is a form of deferred gratification for a bit of a slog in earlier decades.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,429
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Why Gen X is the real loser generation
    Don’t cry for millennials or Gen Z. Save your pity for those in their 50s" (£)

    https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/05/08/why-gen-x-is-the-real-loser-generation

    Oooooh, that includes me !!
    I thought you were a boomer. Is your birthdate before Jan 1 1965?
    No, it most certainly is not.
    Congratulations! I assumed because you had retired, but you know what they say about "assume" :(
    Indeed 😉

    I am on the borderline, September 65. And only been retired a few months.
    I’ve had a big long think about all this, as I walked around nw1 for the last two hours, observing all the changes - the comings and goings, the grottiness and the prettiness, the beautiful wisteria on the pastel pink townhouses - and I’ve come to the firm conclusion that getting old is shit
    More so if you fight it. If you were to spend time sitting quietly and observing things (rather than always trying to join in) I think you'd find some inner joy.
    What is this PB idea that I’m a grumpy old git that doesn’t enjoy life?!

    I love life. I love MY life in particular. I am literally paid to do what I would do anyway given the chance - travel. It’s my greatest pleasure. I am paid to do the thing I most adore doing

    You gotta remember I come on here to relieve boredom and get in arguments and vent at useless politicians

    In real life I’m quite different. Effervescent
    It's just there's a bleakness there under all the froth. Not everyone will sense it but I do. Anyway, enough, this is probably one of those things best left unexplored.
    Honestly there really isn’t. I don’t know how to convince you! But you don’t have to worry about some inner desolation inside of me

    It isn’t there. I have quite firm religious beliefs - reinforced by recent ayahuasca experiences. I absolutely believe human life and my life has
    spiritual purpose - the universe is a story. I also find much of life comical in a good way. I laugh a lot. I’m much happier now than I was at age 18 or 20

    Perhaps what you sense in me is nihilistic anger. And if so, you’re correct. I am angry at the way the UK is being fucked up (and the world, to an extent) and my anger grows daily. And it’s so bad I am prepared to nihilistically overthrow almost everything

    So maybe that’s what you are wrongly detecting as bleakness. Fury
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,614
    kinabalu said:

    theProle said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does the centre-left have any explanations for why Ref is doing so well atm, (other than they're a bunch of thickos, bigots, etc)?

    Its not a great mystery is it?

    Conservatives are not just rubbish but discredited and out of ideas.
    Labour are a fraction better but also out of both ideas and courage.
    Workers are unhappy their share of the economy goes to the retired.
    The retired are unhappy with immigration and the pace of social change.

    Not sure what it has to do with the centre left, anymore than the far left, centre right, centre or far right.
    That accords with my view on Reform’s rise (also note the Farage phenomenon - although i would argue he puts off as many as he pleases).

    To a certain extent this has been the case since Brexit. A lot of people feel left behind or out of time. Farage (and indeed Johnson before him) suggest that there are simple answers to these questions and folk believe them. Is it populism? Probably. Will they fail if they ever achieve office? Almost certainly. Although like those types always do there will be a scapegoat - whether that be foreigners, the deep state or some other nonsense.

    I wish there was sn accepted view in society that if someone suggests that there is an easy solution to a hard protracted issue everyone realises straight away that they are full of it and they can be safely ignored.
    It depends what you mean by a simple solution.

    Sometimes simple solutions work, but you have to ask why they've not been done yet if they're so simple.

    Simple solutions that are politically unpopular because vested interests oppose them are perfectly legitimate solutions. The difficulty isn't extra complexity, it is the politicians facing backlash from the vested interest.

    Simple solutions that are universally popular and will cause no harm to anyone whatsoever are a bad joke.
    This.

    E.G. There are a number of "simple solutions" to the small boats problem, which would definitely "work".

    We could task the Navy with sinking them all. After the first few hundred people had drowned, I suspect that demand for small boat crossings would drop significantly. Even if it didn't, arrivals by small boats would be pretty close to zero.

    Or alternatively, we could establish a migration hub in Calais. Turn up there, we'll put you on a ferry and give you indefinite leave to remain, no questions asked.

    Both of these would "solve" the small boat issue - small boat arrivals would very quickly drop to zero. Neither are good or politically acceptable solutions.

    But, this said, the reason that Farage is likely to win the next election is simple. He has proposals in some areas which will work, and which everyone knows will work, and which are politically acceptable to half the country's population, but which, crucially, are beyond the pale for our current political class.

    Take immigration. He says - and a large chunk of the country thinks - that the asylum system is being abused by economic migrants (and their lawyers) taking the p***. The solution is pretty easy and simple - abolish the current system, come up with a new one that's much more restrictive, deport all the p*** takers, problem solved.

    That's politically unacceptable if you're a lefty human rights lawyer, so Starmer can't steal it. It's probably not politically unacceptable if you're a heartless Tory, but after the hopeless performance of the last Tory government, no-one thinks they'll do it,even if they say they will.

    Fararge isn't a magician or a hypnotist. He doesn't need to be. All he needs is to do is give the public what they've consistently voted for at every opportunity - lower immigration - and he'll be the most popular prime minister in a very long time.
    Asylum seekers are a small proportion of immigration. Those winning asylum with no real claim but good lawyers is a small proportion of those given asylum. Sure, you could fiddle around with the asylum system and reduce the proportion granted asylum a bit, but this would have a negligible impact on total immigration. So, no, that’s not an example of a Farage proposal that would work. It’s fantasy politics.
    The numbers are set to plummet under this government. By the time of the election they'll be able to say, with no word of a lie, that they have 'slashed' immigration.
    Just as Rishi Sunak was able to say, with no word of a lie, that inflation had fallen.

    And possibly with the same amount of gratitude from the electorate that he got.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,414
    edited May 9
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    Brutal but eloquent. And fair

    On top of all these failings - and they are grave - starmer is a priggish and reeking hypocrite. Lecturing the Tories for their venality then as soon as he reached power grabbing all the freebies going right down to designer spectacles. And he’s loaded. What a contemptible wanker
    The hope was that he'd sort out the country with the same ruthlessness as he did the Labour Party. A sort of surgeon-janitor.

    Still waiting. What's mad is there remains a significant chance he gets another term based on a Farage protest vote. They'll easily get over 30% if that's the choice.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,926
    Leon said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    I read a brilliant substack observation by novelist Tim Lott the other day. On this subject: ageing

    He said “I often have this wilful delusion that getting old is like an illness. And one day soon I will wake up and feel better. And I will be 34 again”

    I live under the delusion that I’m not definitely going to age, that there’s a possibility I might dodge it (and to a certain extent dying). The epitome of wishful thinking!

    In the real world though, I just don’t buy the getting fat etc as you get older thing.. and if you stay relatively fit, and eat healthily, you don’t feel old.
    Hah. Martin Amis said exactly that. When he was young or even middle aged he said “I kinda convince myself that ageing is something that happens to other people, it won’t happen to me. I’m different”

    And then he got old. And died

    I’ve just checked his age at death - 73

    And the age of his father Kingsley at death? - 73

    This is one piece of wisdom I’ve accrued of late. People tend to die the same age as their parents. Sons as fathers. Daughters as mothers. I’ve had a couple of good friends conk out far too early in recent years - and they both had fathers that died early - at the same age

    Genetics is Destiny
    When Kingsley Amis moved in with his ex-wife and her new husband for the last few years of his life, his daily routine was said to be three large whiskies before lunch at the club. God knows what he did after lunch other than sleeping, or what was consumed in the evening.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,533
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:



    I’ll still be shopping at Tesco, going swimming sometimes, nibbling nuts in the afternoon, drinking red wine from a sherry glass, I’ll still be doing these same things, but I’ll be doing them in a world that has changed.

    This is faintly tragic, and also ever so slightly provincial, and non-U. But, then again, you are a retired accountant.

    I agree the post WWII world is now over. VE Day 80 didn't have the spark it should, and it's just moving into history now.
    That was my point - and more specifically 'feeling' it as opposed to understanding it in the abstract.

    Always a point to my contributions. I'm never just prattling away for the sake of it.
    I now have a weird image in my head of a not terribly old, but fading fast, retired accountant, with his slippers on, and on a reclining SCS leather armchair, sipping some cheap red plonk out of a sherry glass, whilst watching re-runs of Poirot and a Stennah Stairlift brochure on his lap.
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does the centre-left have any explanations for why Ref is doing so well atm, (other than they're a bunch of thickos, bigots, etc)?

    Yes.
    They are offering attractive yet simplistic and unworkable solutions at a time of economic difficulty.
    As a non-lefty right of centre one time One Nation Tory who voted Remain (and genuinely loathes Farage), I think I have come to a conclusion as to why some vote Reform. It is simply that they are pissed off. Pissed off with the woke rachet, where they perceive that greater credence is given to immigrants, where statues of historic figures are torn down and those responsible are not prosecuted, where one might be cancelled for stating something that someone else decides is not the modern perspective, where policemen will arrest you for the mildest of "crimes", or perhaps for defending your own property, but real thugs thieves and burglars seem to get off scot-free, because the police claim they do not "have the resources". These are the types of reasons. Mainstream politician need to address them.
    The problem with tackling those "issues" is made more difficult because they are right wing Social Media urban myths. The truth is too boring for the click bait circuit.
    You think it’s a social media urban myth that the police aren’t bothering to investigate phone theft and bike theft and car theft? And shoplifting?
    I agree those are real issues, but the rest are myths.

    What statue has been pulled down and those responsible not prosecuted for example?
    The people who pulled down the Colston statue were 'prosecuted' but the trial was allowed to be turned into a farce.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-59727161
    So they were certainly prosecuted, and had due process.

    What statue was pulled down without prosecution?
    The verdict not going the way you wanted means it wasn’t a proper trial is very much the Reform vibe (that word again).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,396
    edited May 9
    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    Brutal but eloquent. And fair

    On top of all these failings - and they are grave - starmer is a priggish and reeking hypocrite. Lecturing the Tories for their venality then as soon as he reached power grabbing all the freebies going right down to designer spectacles. And he’s loaded. What a contemptible wanker
    The hope was that he'd sort out the country with the same ruthlessness as he did the Labour Party. A sort of surgeon-janitor.

    Still waiting. What's mad is there remains a significant chance he gets another term based on a Farage protest vote. They'll easily get over 30% if that's the choice.
    If he does it would likely be scraping home via massive tactical voting but still in a hung parliament with Labour losing its majority and needing LD support to stay in office. Which might mean PR
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,429
    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    I read a brilliant substack observation by novelist Tim Lott the other day. On this subject: ageing

    He said “I often have this wilful delusion that getting old is like an illness. And one day soon I will wake up and feel better. And I will be 34 again”

    I live under the delusion that I’m not definitely going to age, that there’s a possibility I might dodge it (and to a certain extent dying). The epitome of wishful thinking!

    In the real world though, I just don’t buy the getting fat etc as you get older thing.. and if you stay relatively fit, and eat healthily, you don’t feel old.
    Hah. Martin Amis said exactly that. When he was young or even middle aged he said “I kinda convince myself that ageing is something that happens to other people, it won’t happen to me. I’m different”

    And then he got old. And died

    I’ve just checked his age at death - 73

    And the age of his father Kingsley at death? - 73

    This is one piece of wisdom I’ve accrued of late. People tend to die the same age as their parents. Sons as fathers. Daughters as mothers. I’ve had a couple of good friends conk out far too early in recent years - and they both had fathers that died early - at the same age

    Genetics is Destiny
    When Kingsley Amis moved in with his ex-wife and her new husband for the last few years of his life, his daily routine was said to be three large whiskies before lunch at the club. God knows what he did after lunch other than sleeping, or what was consumed in the evening.
    Yes I fear Kingsley’s last decade was pretty dismal

    Marty was very different. In one of his last interviews he said his 60s were the happiest decade of his life

    Then the smokes got him
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,747
    "One of Labour’s only transgender councillors has resigned from the party, accusing it of “throwing trans people under the bus”.

    In a post on X on Friday morning, Dylan Tippetts, who has represented Compton ward on Plymouth city council since 2022, wrote: “I cannot continue to represent a party that does not support my fundamental rights. I cannot as a trans person continue to support the Labour party.”"

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/may/09/labour-transgender-people-dylan-tippetts-plymouth
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,429
    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    Brutal but eloquent. And fair

    On top of all these failings - and they are grave - starmer is a priggish and reeking hypocrite. Lecturing the Tories for their venality then as soon as he reached power grabbing all the freebies going right down to designer spectacles. And he’s loaded. What a contemptible wanker
    The hope was that he'd sort out the country with the same ruthlessness as he did the Labour Party. A sort of surgeon-janitor.

    Still waiting. What's mad is there remains a significant chance he gets another term based on a Farage protest vote. They'll easily get over 30% if that's the choice.
    Indeed. It’s such a waste of a huge majority

    Starmer had an incredible opportunity to remake Britain as much as thatcher did. But in a new way

    He’s already proved he’s not up to the task. He’s not clever enough. He hasn’t got the charm to carry the country not the intellectual heft to persuade his party, and he’s a weird freak who never dreams so he has absolutely no ideas. He’s a quintessential apparatchik who should be running the library and arts department of a county council
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,747
    edited May 9
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:



    I’ll still be shopping at Tesco, going swimming sometimes, nibbling nuts in the afternoon, drinking red wine from a sherry glass, I’ll still be doing these same things, but I’ll be doing them in a world that has changed.

    This is faintly tragic, and also ever so slightly provincial, and non-U. But, then again, you are a retired accountant.

    I agree the post WWII world is now over. VE Day 80 didn't have the spark it should, and it's just moving into history now.
    That was my point - and more specifically 'feeling' it as opposed to understanding it in the abstract.

    Always a point to my contributions. I'm never just prattling away for the sake of it.
    I now have a weird image in my head of a not terribly old, but fading fast, retired accountant, with his slippers on, and on a reclining SCS leather armchair, sipping some cheap red plonk out of a sherry glass, whilst watching re-runs of Poirot and a Stennah Stairlift brochure on his lap.
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does the centre-left have any explanations for why Ref is doing so well atm, (other than they're a bunch of thickos, bigots, etc)?

    Yes.
    They are offering attractive yet simplistic and unworkable solutions at a time of economic difficulty.
    As a non-lefty right of centre one time One Nation Tory who voted Remain (and genuinely loathes Farage), I think I have come to a conclusion as to why some vote Reform. It is simply that they are pissed off. Pissed off with the woke rachet, where they perceive that greater credence is given to immigrants, where statues of historic figures are torn down and those responsible are not prosecuted, where one might be cancelled for stating something that someone else decides is not the modern perspective, where policemen will arrest you for the mildest of "crimes", or perhaps for defending your own property, but real thugs thieves and burglars seem to get off scot-free, because the police claim they do not "have the resources". These are the types of reasons. Mainstream politician need to address them.
    The problem with tackling those "issues" is made more difficult because they are right wing Social Media urban myths. The truth is too boring for the click bait circuit.
    You think it’s a social media urban myth that the police aren’t bothering to investigate phone theft and bike theft and car theft? And shoplifting?
    Imagine having your mobile stolen in the late 90s, innocently picking up the landline phone to call the police, happy in the knowledge they would actually do something about it. Seems like a dream world today.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,019
    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    I read a brilliant substack observation by novelist Tim Lott the other day. On this subject: ageing

    He said “I often have this wilful delusion that getting old is like an illness. And one day soon I will wake up and feel better. And I will be 34 again”

    I live under the delusion that I’m not definitely going to age, that there’s a possibility I might dodge it (and to a certain extent dying). The epitome of wishful thinking!

    In the real world though, I just don’t buy the getting fat etc as you get older thing.. and if you stay relatively fit, and eat healthily, you don’t feel old.
    Hah. Martin Amis said exactly that. When he was young or even middle aged he said “I kinda convince myself that ageing is something that happens to other people, it won’t happen to me. I’m different”

    And then he got old. And died

    I’ve just checked his age at death - 73

    And the age of his father Kingsley at death? - 73

    This is one piece of wisdom I’ve accrued of late. People tend to die the same age as their parents. Sons as fathers. Daughters as mothers. I’ve had a couple of good friends conk out far too early in recent years - and they both had fathers that died early - at the same age

    Genetics is Destiny
    When Kingsley Amis moved in with his ex-wife and her new husband for the last few years of his life, his daily routine was said to be three large whiskies before lunch at the club. God knows what he did after lunch other than sleeping, or what was consumed in the evening.
    Kingsley liked his cans of Special Brew according to Martin.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,023
    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    That's harsh but it's fair in two respects. He does lack charisma and he's a manager not a visionary. However a charismatic persona and a grand vision are imo overrated in politics compared to competence and good intentions. I'd always take the latter. And it's what we need. We're a free and prosperous country which could be better in many respects, not a broken shithole of a place.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,525
    isam said:

    Leon said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    I read a brilliant substack observation by novelist Tim Lott the other day. On this subject: ageing

    He said “I often have this wilful delusion that getting old is like an illness. And one day soon I will wake up and feel better. And I will be 34 again”

    I live under the delusion that I’m not definitely going to age, that there’s a possibility I might dodge it (and to a certain extent dying). The epitome of wishful thinking!

    In the real world though, I just don’t buy the getting fat etc as you get older thing.. and if you stay relatively fit, and eat healthily, you don’t feel old.
    Hah. Martin Amis said exactly that. When he was young or even middle aged he said “I kinda convince myself that ageing is something that happens to other people, it won’t happen to me. I’m different”

    And then he got old. And died

    I’ve just checked his age at death - 73

    And the age of his father Kingsley at death? - 73

    This is one piece of wisdom I’ve accrued of late. People tend to die the same age as their parents. Sons as fathers. Daughters as mothers. I’ve had a couple of good friends conk out far too early in recent years - and they both had fathers that died early - at the same age

    Genetics is Destiny
    I’m hoping it doesn’t skip a generation, as my Grandad died very suddenly at 55 yet his three sons are all still alive in their 70s & 80s, each of whom have beaten cancer

    When I had a bad reaction to my Covid jab it was the first time I thought “I actually could die here”. Been very lucky I suppose
    Genetic destiny is not total. Earlier generations would have succumbed to those cancers, and perhaps your grandfather would have lived much longer with modern preventative therapy of cardiac risk factors. The rate of sudden cardiac deaths has halved over the last half century.

    In the end the tendency to turn into our parents takes over from a youthful determination to not be like them. You can trim that course in life a little, but it is hard work to go against that grain.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,718
    Sean_F said:

    RobD said:

    algarkirk said:

    Question for the panel. On current form the 2029 election will be mega on the need for tactical voting. Is there a fairly simple formula covering most seats in England (S and W is too hard for me to think about) which guides as to how to vote tactically against Reform, for people who don't have a PhD in psephology?

    Eg for starters:
    In all seats where LDs are first or second, vote LD
    In all seats where Labour is first vote Labour
    In all seats where Tory is first and LD not second, just guess at random

    Would that be enough?

    You are better off waiting until the MRP projection a couple of weeks before the election.
    At this stage, I think I'd expect something like the Canadian result at the next election. Voters will converge on the main left wing party (probably Labour) and the main right wing party (probably Reform). At this point, I'd expect Labour to finish narrowly ahead.
    I think the UK is slightly different, because there are whole swathes of the UK where Labour supporters have "given up" and cast their lot with the Liberal Democrats. I can't see -say- the Libdem vote in Eastleigh go Labour.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,429
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:



    I’ll still be shopping at Tesco, going swimming sometimes, nibbling nuts in the afternoon, drinking red wine from a sherry glass, I’ll still be doing these same things, but I’ll be doing them in a world that has changed.

    This is faintly tragic, and also ever so slightly provincial, and non-U. But, then again, you are a retired accountant.

    I agree the post WWII world is now over. VE Day 80 didn't have the spark it should, and it's just moving into history now.
    That was my point - and more specifically 'feeling' it as opposed to understanding it in the abstract.

    Always a point to my contributions. I'm never just prattling away for the sake of it.
    I now have a weird image in my head of a not terribly old, but fading fast, retired accountant, with his slippers on, and on a reclining SCS leather armchair, sipping some cheap red plonk out of a sherry glass, whilst watching re-runs of Poirot and a Stennah Stairlift brochure on his lap.
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does the centre-left have any explanations for why Ref is doing so well atm, (other than they're a bunch of thickos, bigots, etc)?

    Yes.
    They are offering attractive yet simplistic and unworkable solutions at a time of economic difficulty.
    As a non-lefty right of centre one time One Nation Tory who voted Remain (and genuinely loathes Farage), I think I have come to a conclusion as to why some vote Reform. It is simply that they are pissed off. Pissed off with the woke rachet, where they perceive that greater credence is given to immigrants, where statues of historic figures are torn down and those responsible are not prosecuted, where one might be cancelled for stating something that someone else decides is not the modern perspective, where policemen will arrest you for the mildest of "crimes", or perhaps for defending your own property, but real thugs thieves and burglars seem to get off scot-free, because the police claim they do not "have the resources". These are the types of reasons. Mainstream politician need to address them.
    The problem with tackling those "issues" is made more difficult because they are right wing Social Media urban myths. The truth is too boring for the click bait circuit.
    You think it’s a social media urban myth that the police aren’t bothering to investigate phone theft and bike theft and car theft? And shoplifting?
    Imagine having your mobile stolen in the late 90s, innocently picking up the landline phone to call the police, happy in the knowledge they would actually do something about it. Seems like a dream world today.
    In Bukhara Uzbekistan last month a tourist lost a phone in a cab and told the police. So the police stopped every single taxi for two hours until they found it and gave it back to the tourist

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,525
    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    That's harsh but it's fair in two respects. He does lack charisma and he's a manager not a visionary. However a charismatic persona and a grand vision are imo overrated in politics compared to competence and good intentions. I'd always take the latter. And it's what we need. We're a free and prosperous country which could be better in many respects, not a broken shithole of a place.
    I agree on that. Britain is a lovely place to be on a day like this.

    I think the doom and gloom is heavily overdone by those plastic patriots determined to talk down the country.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,926
    Leon said:

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    I read a brilliant substack observation by novelist Tim Lott the other day. On this subject: ageing

    He said “I often have this wilful delusion that getting old is like an illness. And one day soon I will wake up and feel better. And I will be 34 again”

    I live under the delusion that I’m not definitely going to age, that there’s a possibility I might dodge it (and to a certain extent dying). The epitome of wishful thinking!

    In the real world though, I just don’t buy the getting fat etc as you get older thing.. and if you stay relatively fit, and eat healthily, you don’t feel old.
    Hah. Martin Amis said exactly that. When he was young or even middle aged he said “I kinda convince myself that ageing is something that happens to other people, it won’t happen to me. I’m different”

    And then he got old. And died

    I’ve just checked his age at death - 73

    And the age of his father Kingsley at death? - 73

    This is one piece of wisdom I’ve accrued of late. People tend to die the same age as their parents. Sons as fathers. Daughters as mothers. I’ve had a couple of good friends conk out far too early in recent years - and they both had fathers that died early - at the same age

    Genetics is Destiny
    When Kingsley Amis moved in with his ex-wife and her new husband for the last few years of his life, his daily routine was said to be three large whiskies before lunch at the club. God knows what he did after lunch other than sleeping, or what was consumed in the evening.
    Yes I fear Kingsley’s last decade was pretty dismal

    Marty was very different. In one of his last interviews he said his 60s were the happiest decade of his life

    Then the smokes got him
    Also the spirits, probably. Oesophageal cancer is best avoided by sticking to beer & wine on top of not smoking. The Japanese get it too, but from too much too hot tea.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,023

    kinabalu said:

    theProle said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does the centre-left have any explanations for why Ref is doing so well atm, (other than they're a bunch of thickos, bigots, etc)?

    Its not a great mystery is it?

    Conservatives are not just rubbish but discredited and out of ideas.
    Labour are a fraction better but also out of both ideas and courage.
    Workers are unhappy their share of the economy goes to the retired.
    The retired are unhappy with immigration and the pace of social change.

    Not sure what it has to do with the centre left, anymore than the far left, centre right, centre or far right.
    That accords with my view on Reform’s rise (also note the Farage phenomenon - although i would argue he puts off as many as he pleases).

    To a certain extent this has been the case since Brexit. A lot of people feel left behind or out of time. Farage (and indeed Johnson before him) suggest that there are simple answers to these questions and folk believe them. Is it populism? Probably. Will they fail if they ever achieve office? Almost certainly. Although like those types always do there will be a scapegoat - whether that be foreigners, the deep state or some other nonsense.

    I wish there was sn accepted view in society that if someone suggests that there is an easy solution to a hard protracted issue everyone realises straight away that they are full of it and they can be safely ignored.
    It depends what you mean by a simple solution.

    Sometimes simple solutions work, but you have to ask why they've not been done yet if they're so simple.

    Simple solutions that are politically unpopular because vested interests oppose them are perfectly legitimate solutions. The difficulty isn't extra complexity, it is the politicians facing backlash from the vested interest.

    Simple solutions that are universally popular and will cause no harm to anyone whatsoever are a bad joke.
    This.

    E.G. There are a number of "simple solutions" to the small boats problem, which would definitely "work".

    We could task the Navy with sinking them all. After the first few hundred people had drowned, I suspect that demand for small boat crossings would drop significantly. Even if it didn't, arrivals by small boats would be pretty close to zero.

    Or alternatively, we could establish a migration hub in Calais. Turn up there, we'll put you on a ferry and give you indefinite leave to remain, no questions asked.

    Both of these would "solve" the small boat issue - small boat arrivals would very quickly drop to zero. Neither are good or politically acceptable solutions.

    But, this said, the reason that Farage is likely to win the next election is simple. He has proposals in some areas which will work, and which everyone knows will work, and which are politically acceptable to half the country's population, but which, crucially, are beyond the pale for our current political class.

    Take immigration. He says - and a large chunk of the country thinks - that the asylum system is being abused by economic migrants (and their lawyers) taking the p***. The solution is pretty easy and simple - abolish the current system, come up with a new one that's much more restrictive, deport all the p*** takers, problem solved.

    That's politically unacceptable if you're a lefty human rights lawyer, so Starmer can't steal it. It's probably not politically unacceptable if you're a heartless Tory, but after the hopeless performance of the last Tory government, no-one thinks they'll do it,even if they say they will.

    Fararge isn't a magician or a hypnotist. He doesn't need to be. All he needs is to do is give the public what they've consistently voted for at every opportunity - lower immigration - and he'll be the most popular prime minister in a very long time.
    Asylum seekers are a small proportion of immigration. Those winning asylum with no real claim but good lawyers is a small proportion of those given asylum. Sure, you could fiddle around with the asylum system and reduce the proportion granted asylum a bit, but this would have a negligible impact on total immigration. So, no, that’s not an example of a Farage proposal that would work. It’s fantasy politics.
    The numbers are set to plummet under this government. By the time of the election they'll be able to say, with no word of a lie, that they have 'slashed' immigration.
    Just as Rishi Sunak was able to say, with no word of a lie, that inflation had fallen.

    And possibly with the same amount of gratitude from the electorate that he got.
    True. But a big difference - the Cons had had 14 years and after the self-indulgence of Johnson/Truss they had to go. Re-electing them would have meant the country had stopped caring.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,614
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:



    I’ll still be shopping at Tesco, going swimming sometimes, nibbling nuts in the afternoon, drinking red wine from a sherry glass, I’ll still be doing these same things, but I’ll be doing them in a world that has changed.

    This is faintly tragic, and also ever so slightly provincial, and non-U. But, then again, you are a retired accountant.

    I agree the post WWII world is now over. VE Day 80 didn't have the spark it should, and it's just moving into history now.
    That was my point - and more specifically 'feeling' it as opposed to understanding it in the abstract.

    Always a point to my contributions. I'm never just prattling away for the sake of it.
    I now have a weird image in my head of a not terribly old, but fading fast, retired accountant, with his slippers on, and on a reclining SCS leather armchair, sipping some cheap red plonk out of a sherry glass, whilst watching re-runs of Poirot and a Stennah Stairlift brochure on his lap.
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does the centre-left have any explanations for why Ref is doing so well atm, (other than they're a bunch of thickos, bigots, etc)?

    Yes.
    They are offering attractive yet simplistic and unworkable solutions at a time of economic difficulty.
    As a non-lefty right of centre one time One Nation Tory who voted Remain (and genuinely loathes Farage), I think I have come to a conclusion as to why some vote Reform. It is simply that they are pissed off. Pissed off with the woke rachet, where they perceive that greater credence is given to immigrants, where statues of historic figures are torn down and those responsible are not prosecuted, where one might be cancelled for stating something that someone else decides is not the modern perspective, where policemen will arrest you for the mildest of "crimes", or perhaps for defending your own property, but real thugs thieves and burglars seem to get off scot-free, because the police claim they do not "have the resources". These are the types of reasons. Mainstream politician need to address them.
    The problem with tackling those "issues" is made more difficult because they are right wing Social Media urban myths. The truth is too boring for the click bait circuit.
    You think it’s a social media urban myth that the police aren’t bothering to investigate phone theft and bike theft and car theft? And shoplifting?
    Imagine having your mobile stolen in the late 90s, innocently picking up the landline phone to call the police, happy in the knowledge they would actually do something about it. Seems like a dream world today.
    Dream? Certainly seems fictional to me.

    Didn't have a mobile in the 90s, got first one in 2000.

    Not convinced the Police would ever have actually done something about it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,429
    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    That's harsh but it's fair in two respects. He does lack charisma and he's a manager not a visionary. However a charismatic persona and a grand vision are imo overrated in politics compared to competence and good intentions. I'd always take the latter. And it's what we need. We're a free and prosperous country which could be better in many respects, not a broken shithole of a place.
    I agree on that. Britain is a lovely place to be on a day like this.

    I think the doom and gloom is heavily overdone by those plastic patriots determined to talk down the country.
    I presume you are referring to me

    If so, what a load of bollocks

    It's not some rightwing social media myth that British incomes have stagnated for almost two decades

    It's not some made up Nazi nonsense that we have endured huge, unwanted immigration: fact is, we have, and no one voted for it, and people are justifiably angry about this

    It's not some fascist agit-prop that the public realm - what it looks like, how it feels, is in unpleasant decline. We've had this debate. Shoplifting has risen ten fold in ten years

    That's why Reform is on 33%, Labour are on 20% and the Tories on 16%. Voters are extremely pissed off, and for good reason

    So shove your "plastic patriot" jibes up your ludicrous butt-hole
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,525

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:



    I’ll still be shopping at Tesco, going swimming sometimes, nibbling nuts in the afternoon, drinking red wine from a sherry glass, I’ll still be doing these same things, but I’ll be doing them in a world that has changed.

    This is faintly tragic, and also ever so slightly provincial, and non-U. But, then again, you are a retired accountant.

    I agree the post WWII world is now over. VE Day 80 didn't have the spark it should, and it's just moving into history now.
    That was my point - and more specifically 'feeling' it as opposed to understanding it in the abstract.

    Always a point to my contributions. I'm never just prattling away for the sake of it.
    I now have a weird image in my head of a not terribly old, but fading fast, retired accountant, with his slippers on, and on a reclining SCS leather armchair, sipping some cheap red plonk out of a sherry glass, whilst watching re-runs of Poirot and a Stennah Stairlift brochure on his lap.
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does the centre-left have any explanations for why Ref is doing so well atm, (other than they're a bunch of thickos, bigots, etc)?

    Yes.
    They are offering attractive yet simplistic and unworkable solutions at a time of economic difficulty.
    As a non-lefty right of centre one time One Nation Tory who voted Remain (and genuinely loathes Farage), I think I have come to a conclusion as to why some vote Reform. It is simply that they are pissed off. Pissed off with the woke rachet, where they perceive that greater credence is given to immigrants, where statues of historic figures are torn down and those responsible are not prosecuted, where one might be cancelled for stating something that someone else decides is not the modern perspective, where policemen will arrest you for the mildest of "crimes", or perhaps for defending your own property, but real thugs thieves and burglars seem to get off scot-free, because the police claim they do not "have the resources". These are the types of reasons. Mainstream politician need to address them.
    The problem with tackling those "issues" is made more difficult because they are right wing Social Media urban myths. The truth is too boring for the click bait circuit.
    You think it’s a social media urban myth that the police aren’t bothering to investigate phone theft and bike theft and car theft? And shoplifting?
    Imagine having your mobile stolen in the late 90s, innocently picking up the landline phone to call the police, happy in the knowledge they would actually do something about it. Seems like a dream world today.
    Dream? Certainly seems fictional to me.

    Didn't have a mobile in the 90s, got first one in 2000.

    Not convinced the Police would ever have actually done something about it.
    I was burgled in 1991, and the police did f**k all about it, even when my stolen camera turned up in a second hand shop, the burglar having left his details!

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,396
    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    Brutal but eloquent. And fair

    On top of all these failings - and they are grave - starmer is a priggish and reeking hypocrite. Lecturing the Tories for their venality then as soon as he reached power grabbing all the freebies going right down to designer spectacles. And he’s loaded. What a contemptible wanker
    The hope was that he'd sort out the country with the same ruthlessness as he did the Labour Party. A sort of surgeon-janitor.

    Still waiting. What's mad is there remains a significant chance he gets another term based on a Farage protest vote. They'll easily get over 30% if that's the choice.
    Indeed. It’s such a waste of a huge majority

    Starmer had an incredible opportunity to remake Britain as much as thatcher did. But in a new way

    He’s already proved he’s not up to the task. He’s not clever enough. He hasn’t got the charm to carry the country not the intellectual heft to persuade his party, and he’s a weird freak who never dreams so he has absolutely no ideas. He’s a quintessential apparatchik who should be running the library and arts department of a county council
    Not really, Starmer is a dull centrist North London ex lawyer who was elected as he wasn't the Tories and didn't frighten swing voters.

    Corbyn could have remade Britain in the way Thatcher did had he won a majority and would have shifted back to a more statist leftwing UK as Attlee had built before Thatcher came along.

    Boris had a mandate to really change Britain via Brexit but didn't really deliver.

    Starmer is not an ideologue but a bureaucrat
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,328
    edited May 9

    kinabalu said:

    theProle said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does the centre-left have any explanations for why Ref is doing so well atm, (other than they're a bunch of thickos, bigots, etc)?

    Its not a great mystery is it?

    Conservatives are not just rubbish but discredited and out of ideas.
    Labour are a fraction better but also out of both ideas and courage.
    Workers are unhappy their share of the economy goes to the retired.
    The retired are unhappy with immigration and the pace of social change.

    Not sure what it has to do with the centre left, anymore than the far left, centre right, centre or far right.
    That accords with my view on Reform’s rise (also note the Farage phenomenon - although i would argue he puts off as many as he pleases).

    To a certain extent this has been the case since Brexit. A lot of people feel left behind or out of time. Farage (and indeed Johnson before him) suggest that there are simple answers to these questions and folk believe them. Is it populism? Probably. Will they fail if they ever achieve office? Almost certainly. Although like those types always do there will be a scapegoat - whether that be foreigners, the deep state or some other nonsense.

    I wish there was sn accepted view in society that if someone suggests that there is an easy solution to a hard protracted issue everyone realises straight away that they are full of it and they can be safely ignored.
    It depends what you mean by a simple solution.

    Sometimes simple solutions work, but you have to ask why they've not been done yet if they're so simple.

    Simple solutions that are politically unpopular because vested interests oppose them are perfectly legitimate solutions. The difficulty isn't extra complexity, it is the politicians facing backlash from the vested interest.

    Simple solutions that are universally popular and will cause no harm to anyone whatsoever are a bad joke.
    This.

    E.G. There are a number of "simple solutions" to the small boats problem, which would definitely "work".

    We could task the Navy with sinking them all. After the first few hundred people had drowned, I suspect that demand for small boat crossings would drop significantly. Even if it didn't, arrivals by small boats would be pretty close to zero.

    Or alternatively, we could establish a migration hub in Calais. Turn up there, we'll put you on a ferry and give you indefinite leave to remain, no questions asked.

    Both of these would "solve" the small boat issue - small boat arrivals would very quickly drop to zero. Neither are good or politically acceptable solutions.

    But, this said, the reason that Farage is likely to win the next election is simple. He has proposals in some areas which will work, and which everyone knows will work, and which are politically acceptable to half the country's population, but which, crucially, are beyond the pale for our current political class.

    Take immigration. He says - and a large chunk of the country thinks - that the asylum system is being abused by economic migrants (and their lawyers) taking the p***. The solution is pretty easy and simple - abolish the current system, come up with a new one that's much more restrictive, deport all the p*** takers, problem solved.

    That's politically unacceptable if you're a lefty human rights lawyer, so Starmer can't steal it. It's probably not politically unacceptable if you're a heartless Tory, but after the hopeless performance of the last Tory government, no-one thinks they'll do it,even if they say they will.

    Fararge isn't a magician or a hypnotist. He doesn't need to be. All he needs is to do is give the public what they've consistently voted for at every opportunity - lower immigration - and he'll be the most popular prime minister in a very long time.
    Asylum seekers are a small proportion of immigration. Those winning asylum with no real claim but good lawyers is a small proportion of those given asylum. Sure, you could fiddle around with the asylum system and reduce the proportion granted asylum a bit, but this would have a negligible impact on total immigration. So, no, that’s not an example of a Farage proposal that would work. It’s fantasy politics.
    The numbers are set to plummet under this government. By the time of the election they'll be able to say, with no word of a lie, that they have 'slashed' immigration.
    Just as Rishi Sunak was able to say, with no word of a lie, that inflation had fallen.

    And possibly with the same amount of gratitude from the electorate that he got.
    "We've cut immigration from a staggeringly large number to a smaller but still staggeringly large number" is not going to be an easy sell on the doorstep.

    And to an extent, the smaller you cut legal migration, the bigger problem illegal migration becomes - get immigration down to 300k without tackling the small boats and almost 1 in 3 is an illegal. And Starmer has no fix for that.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,414
    edited May 9
    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    That's harsh but it's fair in two respects. He does lack charisma and he's a manager not a visionary. However a charismatic persona and a grand vision are imo overrated in politics compared to competence and good intentions. I'd always take the latter. And it's what we need. We're a free and prosperous country which could be better in many respects, not a broken shithole of a place.
    That's true, but they need to do something. Even if it's just tidying things up a bit - literally and figuratively. For more radical reforms, you can always do them incrementally.

    (There are hints. The VOA merging with HMRC...)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,396
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:



    I’ll still be shopping at Tesco, going swimming sometimes, nibbling nuts in the afternoon, drinking red wine from a sherry glass, I’ll still be doing these same things, but I’ll be doing them in a world that has changed.

    This is faintly tragic, and also ever so slightly provincial, and non-U. But, then again, you are a retired accountant.

    I agree the post WWII world is now over. VE Day 80 didn't have the spark it should, and it's just moving into history now.
    That was my point - and more specifically 'feeling' it as opposed to understanding it in the abstract.

    Always a point to my contributions. I'm never just prattling away for the sake of it.
    I now have a weird image in my head of a not terribly old, but fading fast, retired accountant, with his slippers on, and on a reclining SCS leather armchair, sipping some cheap red plonk out of a sherry glass, whilst watching re-runs of Poirot and a Stennah Stairlift brochure on his lap.
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does the centre-left have any explanations for why Ref is doing so well atm, (other than they're a bunch of thickos, bigots, etc)?

    Yes.
    They are offering attractive yet simplistic and unworkable solutions at a time of economic difficulty.
    As a non-lefty right of centre one time One Nation Tory who voted Remain (and genuinely loathes Farage), I think I have come to a conclusion as to why some vote Reform. It is simply that they are pissed off. Pissed off with the woke rachet, where they perceive that greater credence is given to immigrants, where statues of historic figures are torn down and those responsible are not prosecuted, where one might be cancelled for stating something that someone else decides is not the modern perspective, where policemen will arrest you for the mildest of "crimes", or perhaps for defending your own property, but real thugs thieves and burglars seem to get off scot-free, because the police claim they do not "have the resources". These are the types of reasons. Mainstream politician need to address them.
    The problem with tackling those "issues" is made more difficult because they are right wing Social Media urban myths. The truth is too boring for the click bait circuit.
    You think it’s a social media urban myth that the police aren’t bothering to investigate phone theft and bike theft and car theft? And shoplifting?
    The government has now said the police must investigate thefts under £200
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,059

    a

    Phil said:

    FPT @Luckyguy1983

    Net Zero is starting to now run into economic reality with electric cars and deindustrialisation in a way it wasn't in the 2010s.

    To go further, we will have to accept real economic damage being done now, with the hope that our global leadership on it galvanises a faster transition to Net Zero worldwide.

    Will we?

    I hope not, and we would be extremely foolish to do so.

    All we are providing other countries with presently is an object lesson in what not to do.

    And we are now realising (Spain, North London) that our renewable energy sources are causing problems even when they're working!

    We must completely reset, and use the abundant energy we are lucky to have been given, before we can no longer do so when our bankrupt country is sold to China and we see them come in and exploit what were once our resources.
    What abundant energy? The North Sea gas fields are in end-of-life decline & the decision on whether to grant new exploration licenses is a rounding error compared to that inevitability.

    Now if you meant nuclear, then sure. Although the Uranium for that mostly comes from Australia IIRC.
    @Luckyguy1983 persists in the belief that there is lots of coal that can be *economically* mined. Except there isn't.

    UK deep mined coal died because

    1) Seams were exhausted/the cost of getting the coal out dramatically increased as the easier to access stuff was mined out. This started happening before WWI.
    2) The giant open cast mines on shallow seems, 20 foot (or more) thick, were opened. In other countries.
    3) A major market for some UK coal was high quality coal for steam ships. Once oil came in, this market disappeared. Burning Welsh Best in a power station gives little benefit and cost a lot more.


    So bring back steam locomotives.
    Have you ever travelled in a train pulled by one, let alone stood in the cab?

    Five minutes and you understand why electrification of the railways was seen as a huge thing.
    Several times, and it's a delight.
    They are fun to play with. Big toys. I've done a fair bit of that.

    But for passengers, a modern electric train is an improvement of orders of magnitude.
    I am not proposing a return to the days of steam, though I do applaud heritage steam railways and it's concerning that the destruction of our coal industry is causing problems for these amazing initiatives - the same way that our disastrous energy policy is causing problems for all of us I suppose.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,047
    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    Question for the panel. On current form the 2029 election will be mega on the need for tactical voting. Is there a fairly simple formula covering most seats in England (S and W is too hard for me to think about) which guides as to how to vote tactically against Reform, for people who don't have a PhD in psephology?

    Eg for starters:
    In all seats where LDs are first or second, vote LD
    In all seats where Labour is first vote Labour
    In all seats where Tory is first and LD not second, just guess at random

    Would that be enough?

    No, in the latter scenario like my seat where Tories are first and Reform were second at the GE you would have to vote Tory or get a Reform MP otherwise
    I believe you, but which constituency is that?
    I was trying to do some analysis of that sort of constituency and you'll be interested that the Perplexity AI told me:
    "There is no evidence from the official results or analyses that Reform UK came second to the Conservatives in any constituency where the Conservatives won"
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,116
    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    That's harsh but it's fair in two respects. He does lack charisma and he's a manager not a visionary. However a charismatic persona and a grand vision are imo overrated in politics compared to competence and good intentions. I'd always take the latter. And it's what we need. We're a free and prosperous country which could be better in many respects, not a broken shithole of a place.
    I agree on that. Britain is a lovely place to be on a day like this.

    I think the doom and gloom is heavily overdone by those plastic patriots determined to talk down the country.
    I've noticed a tendency among the kind of people who like to complain about misinformation to stubbornly cling to an idea of the way things are that is based purely on the way they would like things to be, or the way they imagine things to be, or even the way they remember that things used to be. They are impervious to anything that contradicts this, even if it is meticulously factual and supported by evidence from sources that they would normally regard as authoritative.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,059
    eek said:

    .

    algarkirk said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    Eabhal said:

    FPT @Luckyguy1983

    Net Zero is starting to now run into economic reality with electric cars and deindustrialisation in a way it wasn't in the 2010s.

    To go further, we will have to accept real economic damage being done now, with the hope that our global leadership on it galvanises a faster transition to Net Zero worldwide.

    Will we?

    To put the actual argument to one side, it was interesting to find that even Reform voters aren't that fussed about Net Zero - only 9% picked it as an issue. It's very much an internet meme.

    Yet Farage considers this the "next Brexit". That feels like a fumble to me. They should stick to national identity and immigration.

    https://www.ft.com/content/ecb81e0e-11f6-469b-86ef-8e29996b9019
    https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/2cyg5l1m/more-in-common-post-election-briefing-4.pdf
    I'd say that Lincs is the one to watch, again. The new Reform Mayor Andrea Jenkins, and also her boss (?) Zia Yusuf, have been leading with green-bashing, and Lincs is the only place where they have both Mayor and control of the County Council.

    Yet Lincs is reported to now have 12k green jobs and a green economy worth £1.2bn, according to the Local Enterprise Partnership.

    The low carbon and energy economy, already worth £1.2bn per annum to Greater Lincolnshire, holds exceptional potential offering an unprecedented level of private investment of £60bn over the next fifteen years.
    https://www.greaterlincolnshirelep.co.uk/priorities-and-plans/game-changers/green-energy/

    If they want to recreate the 1970s or 1950s, that might not be the place to start.

    (One also notes the level of donations to Reform from fossil fuel industries, which is somewhere between "most" and "nearly all of it".)
    I just think Labour should confront people with this. Do you want to go on a gas only electricity tariff? Do you want all that investment to go elsewhere?
    It is not 'investment', it is companies seeking money from a rigged energy market at the consumers' expense. People are waking up to this fact and rightly so.

    As I mentioned earlier, even when generating power these energy sources damage and disrupt the grid. Things have gone very quiet on Heathrow - we could well see renewable energy was responsible for that substation blowing in the first place, as well as the fact that the backup generation had been fucked up.

    The whole thing is an utter shitshow on every level, and people blowing the whistle have been slandered, mocked and condemned, whilst those in the pay of 'green entrepreneurs' have been heaped with praise for their 'boldness'.
    Support for solar and wind is currently at 88% and 83%, respectively, with 1% opposition. 3% oppose solar farms in their area. 74% think they boost the economy.

    In older polling, support for new gas and coal is at 7% and 5%.

    The (political) argument is over, Reform would be mad to take this approach.
    Two caveats to that, though.

    One is that the balance of capital to running costs is different for fuel power and renewable power. People- especially older people- don't like projects with ten year paybacks.

    The other is that we are all instinctively NIMBY. Hence "solar energy please, but not near me". And the thing about NIMBYism is that it makes people scramble for any argument against the thing they don't like.

    Bad government, but potentially good as an election winner. Maybe anti-net-zero is the new Brexit...
    What's surprising about the polling is that people are YIMBY for solar farms and, to a lesser extent, wind. Maybe that is different in Lincolnshire? But 76% of Reform voters support them...

    (Coal is deeply unpopular, as you'd expect).
    I sort of know that Reform are opposed to Net Zero; does anyone know what they support on the matter of climate change? Are they deniers or something else?
    They tiptoe around denialism. Their manifesto last year said:

    "Net Zero is pushing up bills, damaging British industries like steel, and making us less secure. We can protect our environment with more tree planting, more recycling and less single use plastics. New technology will help, but we must not impoverish ourselves in pursuit of unaffordable, unachievable global CO2 targets."

    It goes on:

    "Cheap, Secure Energy for Britain
    "Start fast-track licences of North Sea gas and oil. Grant shale gas licences on test sites for 2 years. Enable major production when safety is proven, with local compensation schemes.

    "Thereafter:
    "Cleaner Energy from New Technology
    "Fast-track clean nuclear energy with new Small Modular Reactors, built in Britain. Increase and incentivise ethical UK lithium mining for electric batteries, combined cycle gas turbines, clean synthetic fuel, tidal power and explore clean coal mining."

    So, lots of talk of "clean" energy and some of their plan is low-carbon (nuclear, batteries), but overall what they're proposing would involve pumping out lots of CO2.
    Reform still thinks there are suitable sites in the uk for Fracking?

    There are definitely some born every minute
    So few suitable sites that a country-wide moratorium on fracking is apparently required to stop it happening.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,525
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:



    I’ll still be shopping at Tesco, going swimming sometimes, nibbling nuts in the afternoon, drinking red wine from a sherry glass, I’ll still be doing these same things, but I’ll be doing them in a world that has changed.

    This is faintly tragic, and also ever so slightly provincial, and non-U. But, then again, you are a retired accountant.

    I agree the post WWII world is now over. VE Day 80 didn't have the spark it should, and it's just moving into history now.
    That was my point - and more specifically 'feeling' it as opposed to understanding it in the abstract.

    Always a point to my contributions. I'm never just prattling away for the sake of it.
    I now have a weird image in my head of a not terribly old, but fading fast, retired accountant, with his slippers on, and on a reclining SCS leather armchair, sipping some cheap red plonk out of a sherry glass, whilst watching re-runs of Poirot and a Stennah Stairlift brochure on his lap.
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does the centre-left have any explanations for why Ref is doing so well atm, (other than they're a bunch of thickos, bigots, etc)?

    Yes.
    They are offering attractive yet simplistic and unworkable solutions at a time of economic difficulty.
    As a non-lefty right of centre one time One Nation Tory who voted Remain (and genuinely loathes Farage), I think I have come to a conclusion as to why some vote Reform. It is simply that they are pissed off. Pissed off with the woke rachet, where they perceive that greater credence is given to immigrants, where statues of historic figures are torn down and those responsible are not prosecuted, where one might be cancelled for stating something that someone else decides is not the modern perspective, where policemen will arrest you for the mildest of "crimes", or perhaps for defending your own property, but real thugs thieves and burglars seem to get off scot-free, because the police claim they do not "have the resources". These are the types of reasons. Mainstream politician need to address them.
    The problem with tackling those "issues" is made more difficult because they are right wing Social Media urban myths. The truth is too boring for the click bait circuit.
    You think it’s a social media urban myth that the police aren’t bothering to investigate phone theft and bike theft and car theft? And shoplifting?
    The government has now said the police must investigate thefts under £200
    That's typical Starmerism. A policy announced, but no resources to deliver it. We get the same in the NHS all the time.

    In any case isn't it the elected PCC that is responsible for setting police priorities?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,396

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    Question for the panel. On current form the 2029 election will be mega on the need for tactical voting. Is there a fairly simple formula covering most seats in England (S and W is too hard for me to think about) which guides as to how to vote tactically against Reform, for people who don't have a PhD in psephology?

    Eg for starters:
    In all seats where LDs are first or second, vote LD
    In all seats where Labour is first vote Labour
    In all seats where Tory is first and LD not second, just guess at random

    Would that be enough?

    No, in the latter scenario like my seat where Tories are first and Reform were second at the GE you would have to vote Tory or get a Reform MP otherwise
    I believe you, but which constituency is that?
    I was trying to do some analysis of that sort of constituency and you'll be interested that the Perplexity AI told me:
    "There is no evidence from the official results or analyses that Reform UK came second to the Conservatives in any constituency where the Conservatives won"
    Brentwood and Ongar. So AI was wrong there


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001125
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 983
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    That's harsh but it's fair in two respects. He does lack charisma and he's a manager not a visionary. However a charismatic persona and a grand vision are imo overrated in politics compared to competence and good intentions. I'd always take the latter. And it's what we need. We're a free and prosperous country which could be better in many respects, not a broken shithole of a place.
    I agree on that. Britain is a lovely place to be on a day like this.

    I think the doom and gloom is heavily overdone by those plastic patriots determined to talk down the country.
    I presume you are referring to me

    If so, what a load of bollocks

    It's not some rightwing social media myth that British incomes have stagnated for almost two decades

    It's not some made up Nazi nonsense that we have endured huge, unwanted immigration: fact is, we have, and no one voted for it, and people are justifiably angry about this

    It's not some fascist agit-prop that the public realm - what it looks like, how it feels, is in unpleasant decline. We've had this debate. Shoplifting has risen ten fold in ten years

    That's why Reform is on 33%, Labour are on 20% and the Tories on 16%. Voters are extremely pissed off, and for good reason

    So shove your "plastic patriot" jibes up your ludicrous butt-hole
    "British incomes have stagnated for almost two decades", etc, etc, indeed, f*****g useless tories.

    Also not a myth, right wing govts from 2010 - 2024 income stagnation, record high tax-take, public sector in collapse... rightwing social media myth "it's because of immigration".
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,429
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:



    I’ll still be shopping at Tesco, going swimming sometimes, nibbling nuts in the afternoon, drinking red wine from a sherry glass, I’ll still be doing these same things, but I’ll be doing them in a world that has changed.

    This is faintly tragic, and also ever so slightly provincial, and non-U. But, then again, you are a retired accountant.

    I agree the post WWII world is now over. VE Day 80 didn't have the spark it should, and it's just moving into history now.
    That was my point - and more specifically 'feeling' it as opposed to understanding it in the abstract.

    Always a point to my contributions. I'm never just prattling away for the sake of it.
    I now have a weird image in my head of a not terribly old, but fading fast, retired accountant, with his slippers on, and on a reclining SCS leather armchair, sipping some cheap red plonk out of a sherry glass, whilst watching re-runs of Poirot and a Stennah Stairlift brochure on his lap.
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does the centre-left have any explanations for why Ref is doing so well atm, (other than they're a bunch of thickos, bigots, etc)?

    Yes.
    They are offering attractive yet simplistic and unworkable solutions at a time of economic difficulty.
    As a non-lefty right of centre one time One Nation Tory who voted Remain (and genuinely loathes Farage), I think I have come to a conclusion as to why some vote Reform. It is simply that they are pissed off. Pissed off with the woke rachet, where they perceive that greater credence is given to immigrants, where statues of historic figures are torn down and those responsible are not prosecuted, where one might be cancelled for stating something that someone else decides is not the modern perspective, where policemen will arrest you for the mildest of "crimes", or perhaps for defending your own property, but real thugs thieves and burglars seem to get off scot-free, because the police claim they do not "have the resources". These are the types of reasons. Mainstream politician need to address them.
    The problem with tackling those "issues" is made more difficult because they are right wing Social Media urban myths. The truth is too boring for the click bait circuit.
    You think it’s a social media urban myth that the police aren’t bothering to investigate phone theft and bike theft and car theft? And shoplifting?
    The government has now said the police must investigate thefts under £200
    This government says a lot and does less than zero

    Remember SMASH THE GANGS

    It's so risible it's mortifying. I notice Sir Beer Korma has largely stopped saying "we're going to SMASH THE GANGS" presumably because everyone would laugh at him with scornful contempt
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,174

    a

    Phil said:

    FPT @Luckyguy1983

    Net Zero is starting to now run into economic reality with electric cars and deindustrialisation in a way it wasn't in the 2010s.

    To go further, we will have to accept real economic damage being done now, with the hope that our global leadership on it galvanises a faster transition to Net Zero worldwide.

    Will we?

    I hope not, and we would be extremely foolish to do so.

    All we are providing other countries with presently is an object lesson in what not to do.

    And we are now realising (Spain, North London) that our renewable energy sources are causing problems even when they're working!

    We must completely reset, and use the abundant energy we are lucky to have been given, before we can no longer do so when our bankrupt country is sold to China and we see them come in and exploit what were once our resources.
    What abundant energy? The North Sea gas fields are in end-of-life decline & the decision on whether to grant new exploration licenses is a rounding error compared to that inevitability.

    Now if you meant nuclear, then sure. Although the Uranium for that mostly comes from Australia IIRC.
    @Luckyguy1983 persists in the belief that there is lots of coal that can be *economically* mined. Except there isn't.

    UK deep mined coal died because

    1) Seams were exhausted/the cost of getting the coal out dramatically increased as the easier to access stuff was mined out. This started happening before WWI.
    2) The giant open cast mines on shallow seems, 20 foot (or more) thick, were opened. In other countries.
    3) A major market for some UK coal was high quality coal for steam ships. Once oil came in, this market disappeared. Burning Welsh Best in a power station gives little benefit and cost a lot more.


    So bring back steam locomotives.
    Have you ever travelled in a train pulled by one, let alone stood in the cab?

    Five minutes and you understand why electrification of the railways was seen as a huge thing.
    philistine
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,023
    A couple of surprisingly Reformy snippets today:
    1) At our local impeccably Guardianista primary school, an (actually pretty middle class) mum reporting sadly on her visit to one of the outstanding local grammar schools for the benefit of her 10-year old son: "it wasn't for us: we're neither rich white, nor a minority". More surprising still was the extent to which others nodded along, including one mum who works in the racism industry.
    2) The gypsies have moved into some local sports pitches. A friend of mine - who was loudly advocating Corbyn in 2017 - raised this conversationally with me. His language was, er, unCorbynite in its enthusiasm for law and order and property rights.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,396
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:



    I’ll still be shopping at Tesco, going swimming sometimes, nibbling nuts in the afternoon, drinking red wine from a sherry glass, I’ll still be doing these same things, but I’ll be doing them in a world that has changed.

    This is faintly tragic, and also ever so slightly provincial, and non-U. But, then again, you are a retired accountant.

    I agree the post WWII world is now over. VE Day 80 didn't have the spark it should, and it's just moving into history now.
    That was my point - and more specifically 'feeling' it as opposed to understanding it in the abstract.

    Always a point to my contributions. I'm never just prattling away for the sake of it.
    I now have a weird image in my head of a not terribly old, but fading fast, retired accountant, with his slippers on, and on a reclining SCS leather armchair, sipping some cheap red plonk out of a sherry glass, whilst watching re-runs of Poirot and a Stennah Stairlift brochure on his lap.
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does the centre-left have any explanations for why Ref is doing so well atm, (other than they're a bunch of thickos, bigots, etc)?

    Yes.
    They are offering attractive yet simplistic and unworkable solutions at a time of economic difficulty.
    As a non-lefty right of centre one time One Nation Tory who voted Remain (and genuinely loathes Farage), I think I have come to a conclusion as to why some vote Reform. It is simply that they are pissed off. Pissed off with the woke rachet, where they perceive that greater credence is given to immigrants, where statues of historic figures are torn down and those responsible are not prosecuted, where one might be cancelled for stating something that someone else decides is not the modern perspective, where policemen will arrest you for the mildest of "crimes", or perhaps for defending your own property, but real thugs thieves and burglars seem to get off scot-free, because the police claim they do not "have the resources". These are the types of reasons. Mainstream politician need to address them.
    The problem with tackling those "issues" is made more difficult because they are right wing Social Media urban myths. The truth is too boring for the click bait circuit.
    You think it’s a social media urban myth that the police aren’t bothering to investigate phone theft and bike theft and car theft? And shoplifting?
    The government has now said the police must investigate thefts under £200
    This government says a lot and does less than zero

    Remember SMASH THE GANGS

    It's so risible it's mortifying. I notice Sir Beer Korma has largely stopped saying "we're going to SMASH THE GANGS" presumably because everyone would laugh at him with scornful contempt
    Well I suppose it has to ensure it has enough prison places for senders of abusive tweets and Koran burners before jailing shoplifters and gang members
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/05/08/man-who-burned-koran-faces-charges-for-harassing-islam/
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,454
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    Brutal but eloquent. And fair

    On top of all these failings - and they are grave - starmer is a priggish and reeking hypocrite. Lecturing the Tories for their venality then as soon as he reached power grabbing all the freebies going right down to designer spectacles. And he’s loaded. What a contemptible wanker
    The hope was that he'd sort out the country with the same ruthlessness as he did the Labour Party. A sort of surgeon-janitor.

    Still waiting. What's mad is there remains a significant chance he gets another term based on a Farage protest vote. They'll easily get over 30% if that's the choice.
    Indeed. It’s such a waste of a huge majority

    Starmer had an incredible opportunity to remake Britain as much as thatcher did. But in a new way

    He’s already proved he’s not up to the task. He’s not clever enough. He hasn’t got the charm to carry the country not the intellectual heft to persuade his party, and he’s a weird freak who never dreams so he has absolutely no ideas. He’s a quintessential apparatchik who should be running the library and arts department of a county council
    Not really, Starmer is a dull centrist North London ex lawyer who was elected as he wasn't the Tories and didn't frighten swing voters.

    Corbyn could have remade Britain in the way Thatcher did had he won a majority and would have shifted back to a more statist leftwing UK as Attlee had built before Thatcher came along.

    Boris had a mandate to really change Britain via Brexit but didn't really deliver.

    Starmer is not an ideologue but a bureaucrat
    With Corbyn or Johnson the word you are looking for is not "remade" but "damage" . Both had policies that were bad to worse, neither were successful.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,429
    Dopermean said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    That's harsh but it's fair in two respects. He does lack charisma and he's a manager not a visionary. However a charismatic persona and a grand vision are imo overrated in politics compared to competence and good intentions. I'd always take the latter. And it's what we need. We're a free and prosperous country which could be better in many respects, not a broken shithole of a place.
    I agree on that. Britain is a lovely place to be on a day like this.

    I think the doom and gloom is heavily overdone by those plastic patriots determined to talk down the country.
    I presume you are referring to me

    If so, what a load of bollocks

    It's not some rightwing social media myth that British incomes have stagnated for almost two decades

    It's not some made up Nazi nonsense that we have endured huge, unwanted immigration: fact is, we have, and no one voted for it, and people are justifiably angry about this

    It's not some fascist agit-prop that the public realm - what it looks like, how it feels, is in unpleasant decline. We've had this debate. Shoplifting has risen ten fold in ten years

    That's why Reform is on 33%, Labour are on 20% and the Tories on 16%. Voters are extremely pissed off, and for good reason

    So shove your "plastic patriot" jibes up your ludicrous butt-hole
    "British incomes have stagnated for almost two decades", etc, etc, indeed, f*****g useless tories.

    Also not a myth, right wing govts from 2010 - 2024 income stagnation, record high tax-take, public sector in collapse... rightwing social media myth "it's because of immigration".
    Do you think I disagree? I've made it very plain on here what I think of the Tories 2010-2024. They were a pathetic circus that got worse. It's why I want the Tory party to die (barring some miraculous improvement under a new leader) and why, as things stand, I will vote Reform
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,174
    Dura_Ace said:

    MattW said:

    Since we are on cars.

    I'm having a look into whether now is a good time to switch again, maybe to electric. I love it, but I'm not sure that I still need my large (low mileage now) estate. It may be at the point where the value may be going to take a dive, so now could be a good time to0 swap.

    What is a good smallish electric? Needs would be for local and county travel, with occasional extended distance.

    I think someone mentioned a Fiat 500e recently, and the larger battery version of that looks like having potential. Any other suggestions would be welcome.

    One question I need to understand - how long does a battery actually sensibly last? And what age is practical for buying a second hand electric?

    Renault 5. I've got one so you know it's mint. Alpine A290 if you're flush and want a bit more pep.
    Did you get the standard one or the GTS, if GTS assume you believe worth the difference
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,396
    Cicero said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    Brutal but eloquent. And fair

    On top of all these failings - and they are grave - starmer is a priggish and reeking hypocrite. Lecturing the Tories for their venality then as soon as he reached power grabbing all the freebies going right down to designer spectacles. And he’s loaded. What a contemptible wanker
    The hope was that he'd sort out the country with the same ruthlessness as he did the Labour Party. A sort of surgeon-janitor.

    Still waiting. What's mad is there remains a significant chance he gets another term based on a Farage protest vote. They'll easily get over 30% if that's the choice.
    Indeed. It’s such a waste of a huge majority

    Starmer had an incredible opportunity to remake Britain as much as thatcher did. But in a new way

    He’s already proved he’s not up to the task. He’s not clever enough. He hasn’t got the charm to carry the country not the intellectual heft to persuade his party, and he’s a weird freak who never dreams so he has absolutely no ideas. He’s a quintessential apparatchik who should be running the library and arts department of a county council
    Not really, Starmer is a dull centrist North London ex lawyer who was elected as he wasn't the Tories and didn't frighten swing voters.

    Corbyn could have remade Britain in the way Thatcher did had he won a majority and would have shifted back to a more statist leftwing UK as Attlee had built before Thatcher came along.

    Boris had a mandate to really change Britain via Brexit but didn't really deliver.

    Starmer is not an ideologue but a bureaucrat
    With Corbyn or Johnson the word you are looking for is not "remade" but "damage" . Both had policies that were bad to worse, neither were successful.
    They at least offered significant ideological change for the UK with some flair and charisma, successful or not, Starmer just offers dull stagnation led by a middle manager
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,174
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    Eabhal said:

    FPT @Luckyguy1983

    Net Zero is starting to now run into economic reality with electric cars and deindustrialisation in a way it wasn't in the 2010s.

    To go further, we will have to accept real economic damage being done now, with the hope that our global leadership on it galvanises a faster transition to Net Zero worldwide.

    Will we?

    To put the actual argument to one side, it was interesting to find that even Reform voters aren't that fussed about Net Zero - only 9% picked it as an issue. It's very much an internet meme.

    Yet Farage considers this the "next Brexit". That feels like a fumble to me. They should stick to national identity and immigration.

    https://www.ft.com/content/ecb81e0e-11f6-469b-86ef-8e29996b9019
    https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/2cyg5l1m/more-in-common-post-election-briefing-4.pdf
    I'd say that Lincs is the one to watch, again. The new Reform Mayor Andrea Jenkins, and also her boss (?) Zia Yusuf, have been leading with green-bashing, and Lincs is the only place where they have both Mayor and control of the Council.

    Yes Lincs is reported to now have 12k green jobs and a green economy worth £1.2bn, according to the Local Enterprise Partnership.

    The low carbon and energy economy, already worth £1.2bn per annum to Greater Lincolnshire, holds exceptional potential offering an unprecedented level of private investment of £60bn over the next fifteen years.
    https://www.greaterlincolnshirelep.co.uk/priorities-and-plans/game-changers/green-energy/

    If they want to recreate the 1970s or 1950s, that might not be the place to start.
    Apparently net zero costs a bomb, right, so we're going to scrap that woke lefty nonsense, right, and go back to the good old days with British power stations burning British coal, right, who wants wind turbines or pylons anyway, right.

    I know that "Net Zero" is completely the wrong messaging, but the goal of energy independence is a good one. The environment needs to be tret as a bonus rather than the objective. Green energy is how we regain our place of power, no longer at the whim of Putin or money markets, we not only generate free energy but we can design build and export the technology.

    It should be a no-brainer. But "investment" is seen to be "subsidy" and thus "who will pay for it"
    Except that it isn't "free" energy and the panels are largely made in China, so probably not exactly reliable and secure, and quite arguable about how "green" the manufacture of said panels is.

    The most obvious self-sufficiency that this government seems to enjoy saying "go fuck yourself" to, is food production. Hopefully unlikely that we would suffer a food blockade as we did in WW2, but if we did we would starve to death pretty quickly. Two Tier Kier seems to be keen to make us starve a lot quicker
    Autarky positions like this quickly become absurd. You're arguing for a significant reduction in energy consumption and compulsory veganism.

    Solar lasts 25 years+ at 80% efficiency - if China cuts off supply, it will have no material impact on our energy generation for decades, by which time we'll be importing them from someone else. With food, most of our critical imports are from European countries (mainly veg). On gas, most of it comes from Norway.
    It isn't an "autarcky position" you pillock, it is common sense critique based on historical fact that being unable to produce a substantial part of our own food is not in any way desirable, quite apart from the environmental cost of importing food that can be grown here, and it's juxtaposition with the attitude of the current government with their much less rational claims on "energy security". As for China cutting off supply of panels, this is highly unlikely, but the point remains that the environmental credentials of these products are highly dubious. Goofy pillocks like Miliband arguing that "energy self-sufficiency" is a main reason for his obsession with randomly covering rural areas in solar panels to line the pockets the greedy is disingenuous in the extreme.
    We haven't been self-sufficient on food since about 1805.

    If you're moving to an enviornmental position, a massive tax on meat consumption (or at least a reduction in subsidies) would meet both objectives. About 40% of our crops are used to feed animals, and it opens up pastoral land for solar farms and reduces methane emissions.
    Tax the bloody veggies
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 983
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:



    I’ll still be shopping at Tesco, going swimming sometimes, nibbling nuts in the afternoon, drinking red wine from a sherry glass, I’ll still be doing these same things, but I’ll be doing them in a world that has changed.

    This is faintly tragic, and also ever so slightly provincial, and non-U. But, then again, you are a retired accountant.

    I agree the post WWII world is now over. VE Day 80 didn't have the spark it should, and it's just moving into history now.
    That was my point - and more specifically 'feeling' it as opposed to understanding it in the abstract.

    Always a point to my contributions. I'm never just prattling away for the sake of it.
    I now have a weird image in my head of a not terribly old, but fading fast, retired accountant, with his slippers on, and on a reclining SCS leather armchair, sipping some cheap red plonk out of a sherry glass, whilst watching re-runs of Poirot and a Stennah Stairlift brochure on his lap.
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does the centre-left have any explanations for why Ref is doing so well atm, (other than they're a bunch of thickos, bigots, etc)?

    Yes.
    They are offering attractive yet simplistic and unworkable solutions at a time of economic difficulty.
    As a non-lefty right of centre one time One Nation Tory who voted Remain (and genuinely loathes Farage), I think I have come to a conclusion as to why some vote Reform. It is simply that they are pissed off. Pissed off with the woke rachet, where they perceive that greater credence is given to immigrants, where statues of historic figures are torn down and those responsible are not prosecuted, where one might be cancelled for stating something that someone else decides is not the modern perspective, where policemen will arrest you for the mildest of "crimes", or perhaps for defending your own property, but real thugs thieves and burglars seem to get off scot-free, because the police claim they do not "have the resources". These are the types of reasons. Mainstream politician need to address them.
    The problem with tackling those "issues" is made more difficult because they are right wing Social Media urban myths. The truth is too boring for the click bait circuit.
    You think it’s a social media urban myth that the police aren’t bothering to investigate phone theft and bike theft and car theft? And shoplifting?
    Imagine having your mobile stolen in the late 90s, innocently picking up the landline phone to call the police, happy in the knowledge they would actually do something about it. Seems like a dream world today.
    suffered some car and a lot of bike theft since the '90s, the police have never done anything about it, best I've had is one filling out a description form for a stolen bike. "what type of brakes?" Shimano XT "Are those cable or rod" FFS
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,429

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dan Hodges agrees with Kemi. Six weeks ago no tariffs on UK trade to USA, today 10%

    Bit harsh to blame Starmer for damage done by the leader of another country.
    Yea but the whiney old twat deserves every bit of opprobrium that can be poured on his boring freeby-grabbing head, even if it isn't his fault.
    Quite the opposite. He's a diligent dedicated man and deserves your support. By all means vote against Labour come the election but in the meantime get behind your Labour PM.
    Face up to it, he is a dud with no charisma, a poor communicator and has no discernable plan or vision other than crisis management. His crisis management being particularly problematic as he is the instigator of many of the government's crises, not least through having the equally poor Reeves as his sidekick.
    That's harsh but it's fair in two respects. He does lack charisma and he's a manager not a visionary. However a charismatic persona and a grand vision are imo overrated in politics compared to competence and good intentions. I'd always take the latter. And it's what we need. We're a free and prosperous country which could be better in many respects, not a broken shithole of a place.
    I agree on that. Britain is a lovely place to be on a day like this.

    I think the doom and gloom is heavily overdone by those plastic patriots determined to talk down the country.
    I've noticed a tendency among the kind of people who like to complain about misinformation to stubbornly cling to an idea of the way things are that is based purely on the way they would like things to be, or the way they imagine things to be, or even the way they remember that things used to be. They are impervious to anything that contradicts this, even if it is meticulously factual and supported by evidence from sources that they would normally regard as authoritative.
    Very true. The shoplifting argument was vivid evidence of this

    The blinkered centrist Dads insisting it's "always been like this", "I worked in retail a decade ago, nothing has changed"

    This despite PBers offering personal lived experience

    Even when we showed the Centrist Dads the actual hard evidence - a ten fold increase in shoplifting in ten years, according to the Economist - they then claimed they'd always accepted this, or they pretended that it was some statistical anomaly
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,414
    Cookie said:

    A couple of surprisingly Reformy snippets today:
    1) At our local impeccably Guardianista primary school, an (actually pretty middle class) mum reporting sadly on her visit to one of the outstanding local grammar schools for the benefit of her 10-year old son: "it wasn't for us: we're neither rich white, nor a minority". More surprising still was the extent to which others nodded along, including one mum who works in the racism industry.
    2) The gypsies have moved into some local sports pitches. A friend of mine - who was loudly advocating Corbyn in 2017 - raised this conversationally with me. His language was, er, unCorbynite in its enthusiasm for law and order and property rights.

    I still remember the outrage at Douglas Ross' comments on travellers. Probably the most popular thing he ever said, particularly in his own constituency.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,429
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:



    I’ll still be shopping at Tesco, going swimming sometimes, nibbling nuts in the afternoon, drinking red wine from a sherry glass, I’ll still be doing these same things, but I’ll be doing them in a world that has changed.

    This is faintly tragic, and also ever so slightly provincial, and non-U. But, then again, you are a retired accountant.

    I agree the post WWII world is now over. VE Day 80 didn't have the spark it should, and it's just moving into history now.
    That was my point - and more specifically 'feeling' it as opposed to understanding it in the abstract.

    Always a point to my contributions. I'm never just prattling away for the sake of it.
    I now have a weird image in my head of a not terribly old, but fading fast, retired accountant, with his slippers on, and on a reclining SCS leather armchair, sipping some cheap red plonk out of a sherry glass, whilst watching re-runs of Poirot and a Stennah Stairlift brochure on his lap.
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Does the centre-left have any explanations for why Ref is doing so well atm, (other than they're a bunch of thickos, bigots, etc)?

    Yes.
    They are offering attractive yet simplistic and unworkable solutions at a time of economic difficulty.
    As a non-lefty right of centre one time One Nation Tory who voted Remain (and genuinely loathes Farage), I think I have come to a conclusion as to why some vote Reform. It is simply that they are pissed off. Pissed off with the woke rachet, where they perceive that greater credence is given to immigrants, where statues of historic figures are torn down and those responsible are not prosecuted, where one might be cancelled for stating something that someone else decides is not the modern perspective, where policemen will arrest you for the mildest of "crimes", or perhaps for defending your own property, but real thugs thieves and burglars seem to get off scot-free, because the police claim they do not "have the resources". These are the types of reasons. Mainstream politician need to address them.
    The problem with tackling those "issues" is made more difficult because they are right wing Social Media urban myths. The truth is too boring for the click bait circuit.
    You think it’s a social media urban myth that the police aren’t bothering to investigate phone theft and bike theft and car theft? And shoplifting?
    The government has now said the police must investigate thefts under £200
    This government says a lot and does less than zero

    Remember SMASH THE GANGS

    It's so risible it's mortifying. I notice Sir Beer Korma has largely stopped saying "we're going to SMASH THE GANGS" presumably because everyone would laugh at him with scornful contempt
    Well I suppose it has to ensure it has enough prison places for senders of abusive tweets and Koran burners before jailing shoplifters and gang members
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/05/08/man-who-burned-koran-faces-charges-for-harassing-islam/
    But remember we don't have a blasphemy law protecting Islam... you just get arrested and prosecuted and go on trial if you burn a Koran. It's completely different
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,747
    How dare cricket be affected by politics.

    "Indian Premier League suspended over rising tensions between India and Pakistan
    It comes after artillery exchanges between the two nuclear-armed countries were reported across the frontier in Kashmir overnight."

    https://news.sky.com/story/indian-premier-league-suspended-over-rising-tensions-between-india-and-pakistan-13364320
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