That is a bit of ridiculous take. The government repeatedly said they were trying to agree a deal to reduce the impact of the new tariff regime. Its hardly been a big secret.
At that level of Reform share, tactical voting doesn't help non-Reform parties much: that points to a clear Reform majority, and it's entirely possible that the LibDems end up the official opposition.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
Normally tipping point is just hyperbole but I wonder if one has now actually been reached
Yes, if we're ever going to get a tipping point, this must be it
THAT SAID, we need a few more polls with similar numbers to this, not from Find Out Now. That said again, Find Out Now were arguably closer to the local elex results than other pollsters, so maybe Find Out Now are actually superior at polling this new situation with this new party
Basically, anyone supporting the Tories who wants a change from Labour now needs to shift to Reform. I just can't see the Tories coming back from 16%, unless they get Boris in and he does a miracle, or somehow Jenrick.....
Nah
Reform need to drop the Putinism and Hunt-up their economics before I'd consider them
That's the thing, isn't it?
The Conservatives shat the bed on immigration, but Reform (and Farage in particular) are in the pockets of Putin and Trump - both of which are clear and present dangers to the world.
Utter tripe.
You don't think the Conservatives shat the bed on immigration?
WRT tactical voting, in most Labour-held seats, there’s not much of a Lib Dem vote left to squeeze. Labour and Lib Dem supporters sorted themselves out to defeat Conservatives incumbents.
There is frequently quite a big Tory vote left to squeeze, but that’s more likely to go Reform, rather than Labour. But, I guess most Green voters would go over to Labour.
If we started the election campaign with these numbers, I expect we’d end with something like:
Reform 39% Labour 32% Lib Dem 12% Conservative 10% Green 3%
I think you are right that you would see the Greens in particular being relentlessly squeezed.
But I think that's probably a little high for Reform - I think 36-37 is their natural ceiling, at least until after an extinction level event for the Conservative Party.
So, Kemi is straight on Twitter on the US deal saying "We've been shafted!" She really is not a wise leader, with this propensity to reach a wholly negative, knee-jerk instantaneous judgement on anything that the government does, without giving herself time to digest the detail and think through the ramifications. If I were one of the handful of remaining Tories, I'd want rid of her.
I think she needs to put the twatter machine down and wait to see what picture emerges on any story. That is the luxury you have of being opposition, you can take your time to respond. You won't have Beth Rigby shouting at you to say something from the sidelines in Downing Street every minute of every day.
The reality is not everything has been agreed yet and what has been is quite small beer (with added tariff free ethanol) ;-)
She's going a bit Jeremy Clarkson and seeing if it works. What did she accuse Sir Gobble Gobble of last week, having no balls? She obviously thought that went well so she's being a bit more sweary. It has all us talking about it at any rate.
I haven't seen any details of the deal except what has been said here, but I dare say there's enough shaftiness in it to warrant the outburst in the eyes of many.
The clucking disapproval about it here is a bit gamey given that if exactly the same statement had come from Sir Ed Davey the same cohort would be describing it as a masterful piece of political genius playing upon the British electorate's distrust of Trump yadayadayada.
WRT tactical voting, in most Labour-held seats, there’s not much of a Lib Dem vote left to squeeze. Labour and Lib Dem supporters sorted themselves out to defeat Conservatives incumbents.
There is frequently quite a big Tory vote left to squeeze, but that’s more likely to go Reform, rather than Labour. But, I guess most Green voters would go over to Labour.
If we started the election campaign with these numbers, I expect we’d end with something like:
Reform 39% Labour 32% Lib Dem 12% Conservative 10% Green 3%
But surely it's not a case of squeezing votes. LD voters went Labour to shaft the Tories, they will likely return to a resurgent LD, will disillusioned Labour voters join them to shaft Reform?
ETA: I think tactical voting on 03/05/2029 will be an absolute nightmare.
The generalt theme of America and its cultural relations with the world may help Starner a bit today, too.
The more politically uninterested people may have got a vague sense that not only has Trump been made the first transatlantic pope, but that Starmer has managed to seal both a cultural and economic trade deal with him.
Have we done the Newark West Reform UK Councillor who has stood down? TBF it sounds like a paper candidate who was not expecting to be elected. We're going to need a real time counter, and he deserves credit for making a choice and not waiting 6 months by which time he is failing at both his social care role and being a County Councillor.
That's makes three in a week, plus the Hitler-Meme-on-VE-Day tweeter, whom Nonny-Nonny-Nigel is defending.
After the news about Donna Edmunds and Luke Shingler being elected as Reform UK councillors but no longer representing the party, we have a third story. This time it is Desmond Clarke, elected for Newark West ward in Nottinghamshire.
Elected last Thursday under the Reform UK banner, he is now resigning from the council, forcing a by-election.
The Newark Advertiser reports:
The party has confirmed the decision to step down from the council, with Mr Clarke stating he was “not in a position to represent the people of Newark West in the way they deserve, while at the same time continuing his career in social care, about which he is very passionate.”
WRT tactical voting, in most Labour-held seats, there’s not much of a Lib Dem vote left to squeeze. Labour and Lib Dem supporters sorted themselves out to defeat Conservatives incumbents.
There is frequently quite a big Tory vote left to squeeze, but that’s more likely to go Reform, rather than Labour. But, I guess most Green voters would go over to Labour.
If we started the election campaign with these numbers, I expect we’d end with something like:
Reform 39% Labour 32% Lib Dem 12% Conservative 10% Green 3%
I think you are right that you would see the Greens in particular being relentlessly squeezed.
But I think that's probably a little high for Reform - I think 36-37 is their natural ceiling, at least until after an extinction level event for the Conservative Party.
Ah, the Reform ceiling, how I have missed that ever-retreating architectural feature since we last heard from it.
That is a bit of ridiculous take. The government repeatedly said they were trying to agree a deal to reduce the impact of the new tariff regime. Its hardly been a big secret.
The statement eventually delivered by Danny Alexander sounds like it was inspired by Michael Portillo's conference speech:-
It will have escaped nobody’s attention in this House that this agreement with the United States has been reached on the 80th anniversary of Victory in Europe Day. That victory was secured not simply by the heroism and courage of the British armed forces, but by strong transatlantic alliances that have served us well over the eight subsequent decades. In the coming years, the Government of the United Kingdom will continue to work to secure international agreements that uphold our national interests. https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2025-05-08/debates/BBFBC52E-FBD4-466A-A0D1-5A745E53B564/TradeNegotiations
Brain genuinely recovering after last night's crash / epiphany. Have done a load of work to get my life - and finances - better organised. But epic stress has gone to work - to quote Scotty “I’ve had a wee bout…”
The New Pope is potentially a problem for Trump, and perhaps especially Vance, if he takes a line with the Usonian authoritarians as Pope John Paul II did with Poland.
Checking, I see that Leo XIV is 69, whilst John Paul II was 58 in 1978, when enthroned. JPII was Pope for 27 years, and died in 2005. So we can expect perhaps 10-15 years of vigorous service from Leo XIV, everything else being equal.
What happens if the Pope asks to do a mass Mass on the Mall, then preaches against the USA regime?
Brain genuinely recovering after last night's crash / epiphany. Have done a load of work to get my life - and finances - better organised. But epic stress has gone to work - to quote Scotty “I’ve had a wee bout…”
The New Pope is potentially a problem for Trump, and perhaps especially Vance, if he takes a line with the Usonian authoritarians as Pope John Paul II did with Poland.
Checking, I see that Leo XIV is 69, whilst John Paul II was 58 in 1978, when enthroned. JPII was Pope for 27 years, and died in 2005. So we can expect perhaps 10-15 years of vigorous service from Leo XIV, everything else being equal.
What happens if the Pope asks to do a mass Mass on the Mall, then preaches against the USA regime?
I dunno. It feels to me like Catholics aren’t as united around their leadership as they once were. There’s a strong conservative Catholic movement, who I’m not sure walked very strongly in lockstep with Francis.
The new pope is apparently a centrist moderate; which means to some conservative sections of the Church he’s probably practically Lenin.
That is a bit of ridiculous take. The government repeatedly said they were trying to agree a deal to reduce the impact of the new tariff regime. Its hardly been a big secret.
The statement eventually delivered by Danny Alexander sounds like it was inspired by Michael Portillo's conference speech:-
It will have escaped nobody’s attention in this House that this agreement with the United States has been reached on the 80th anniversary of Victory in Europe Day. That victory was secured not simply by the heroism and courage of the British armed forces, but by strong transatlantic alliances that have served us well over the eight subsequent decades. In the coming years, the Government of the United Kingdom will continue to work to secure international agreements that uphold our national interests. https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2025-05-08/debates/BBFBC52E-FBD4-466A-A0D1-5A745E53B564/TradeNegotiations
Douglas Alexander. Danny Alexander is no longer an MP
Brain genuinely recovering after last night's crash / epiphany. Have done a load of work to get my life - and finances - better organised. But epic stress has gone to work - to quote Scotty “I’ve had a wee bout…”
Well, had suggests past tense 😬
Sorry to hear that - hope you feel a lot better very soon.
Have we done the Newark West Reform UK Councillor who has stood down? TBF it sounds like a paper candidate who was not expecting to be elected. We're going to need a real time counter, and he deserves credit for making a choice and not waiting 6 months by which time he is failing at both his social care role and being a County Councillor.
That's makes three in a week, plus the Hitler-Meme-on-VE-Day tweeter, whom Nonny-Nonny-Nigel is defending.
After the news about Donna Edmunds and Luke Shingler being elected as Reform UK councillors but no longer representing the party, we have a third story. This time it is Desmond Clarke, elected for Newark West ward in Nottinghamshire.
Elected last Thursday under the Reform UK banner, he is now resigning from the council, forcing a by-election.
The Newark Advertiser reports:
The party has confirmed the decision to step down from the council, with Mr Clarke stating he was “not in a position to represent the people of Newark West in the way they deserve, while at the same time continuing his career in social care, about which he is very passionate.”
The New Pope is potentially a problem for Trump, and perhaps especially Vance, if he takes a line with the Usonian authoritarians as Pope John Paul II did with Poland.
Checking, I see that Leo XIV is 69, whilst John Paul II was 58 in 1978, when enthroned. JPII was Pope for 27 years, and died in 2005. So we can expect perhaps 10-15 years of vigorous service from Leo XIV, everything else being equal.
What happens if the Pope asks to do a mass Mass on the Mall, then preaches against the USA regime?
I dunno. It feels to me like Catholics aren’t as united around their leadership as they once were. There’s a strong conservative Catholic movement, who I’m not sure walked very strongly in lockstep with Francis.
The new pope is apparently a centrist moderate; which means to some conservative sections of the Church he’s probably practically Lenin.
It doesn't feel quite right to have an American Pope somehow - obviously I'm not a Roman Catholic so I don't have a dog in the fight.
The New Pope is potentially a problem for Trump, and perhaps especially Vance, if he takes a line with the Usonian authoritarians as Pope John Paul II did with Poland.
Checking, I see that Leo XIV is 69, whilst John Paul II was 58 in 1978, when enthroned. JPII was Pope for 27 years, and died in 2005. So we can expect perhaps 10-15 years of vigorous service from Leo XIV, everything else being equal.
What happens if the Pope asks to do a mass Mass on the Mall, then preaches against the USA regime?
I dunno. It feels to me like Catholics aren’t as united around their leadership as they once were. There’s a strong conservative Catholic movement, who I’m not sure walked very strongly in lockstep with Francis.
The new pope is apparently a centrist moderate; which means to some conservative sections of the Church he’s probably practically Lenin.
Brain genuinely recovering after last night's crash / epiphany. Have done a load of work to get my life - and finances - better organised. But epic stress has gone to work - to quote Scotty “I’ve had a wee bout…”
Well, had suggests past tense 😬
Hope all well for you, easy to say but nothing is really insurmountable. Get well soon.
The New Pope is potentially a problem for Trump, and perhaps especially Vance, if he takes a line with the Usonian authoritarians as Pope John Paul II did with Poland.
Checking, I see that Leo XIV is 69, whilst John Paul II was 58 in 1978, when enthroned. JPII was Pope for 27 years, and died in 2005. So we can expect perhaps 10-15 years of vigorous service from Leo XIV, everything else being equal.
What happens if the Pope asks to do a mass Mass on the Mall, then preaches against the USA regime?
I dunno. It feels to me like Catholics aren’t as united around their leadership as they once were. There’s a strong conservative Catholic movement, who I’m not sure walked very strongly in lockstep with Francis.
The new pope is apparently a centrist moderate; which means to some conservative sections of the Church he’s probably practically Lenin.
It doesn't feel quite right to have an American Pope somehow - obviously I'm not a Roman Catholic so I don't have a dog in the fight.
I just don't see him going with the decor.
He's a US Peru dual national and has worked mainly in Latin America. That takes the edge off, I think.
The New Pope is potentially a problem for Trump, and perhaps especially Vance, if he takes a line with the Usonian authoritarians as Pope John Paul II did with Poland.
Checking, I see that Leo XIV is 69, whilst John Paul II was 58 in 1978, when enthroned. JPII was Pope for 27 years, and died in 2005. So we can expect perhaps 10-15 years of vigorous service from Leo XIV, everything else being equal.
What happens if the Pope asks to do a mass Mass on the Mall, then preaches against the USA regime?
I dunno. It feels to me like Catholics aren’t as united around their leadership as they once were. There’s a strong conservative Catholic movement, who I’m not sure walked very strongly in lockstep with Francis.
The new pope is apparently a centrist moderate; which means to some conservative sections of the Church he’s probably practically Lenin.
It doesn't feel quite right to have an American Pope somehow - obviously I'm not a Roman Catholic so I don't have a dog in the fight.
I just don't see him going with the decor.
He's a US Peru dual national and has worked mainly in Latin America. That takes the edge off, I think.
Seems a decent bloke.
"JD Vance is wrong: Jesus doesn't ask us to rank our love for others."
New Pope has been fighting with Vance on Twitter. This is going to be fun. American Catholicism has got some insane people very loud in its numbers - they won’t be happy
JD Vance is fortunate he is a layman not a Priest.
When these politics were in vogue last time but, in the 1930s, there was a Far Right RC Radio Priest called Father Charles Edward Coughlin, who had a radio programme called the Golden Hour where he blamed the Bankers and the Jews for poverty in the USA, then dissembled about Kristallnacht, and support for isolationism during WW2, and became openly anti-democratic. That's partly not unlike some of Vance's positions.
He build up an audience of 30m a week, which was 25% of the population.
Being a Priest, he had sworn a vow of obedience, so he was eventually closed down by his Bishop instructing him to get off air and return to a parish.
The New Pope is potentially a problem for Trump, and perhaps especially Vance, if he takes a line with the Usonian authoritarians as Pope John Paul II did with Poland.
Checking, I see that Leo XIV is 69, whilst John Paul II was 58 in 1978, when enthroned. JPII was Pope for 27 years, and died in 2005. So we can expect perhaps 10-15 years of vigorous service from Leo XIV, everything else being equal.
What happens if the Pope asks to do a mass Mass on the Mall, then preaches against the USA regime?
I dunno. It feels to me like Catholics aren’t as united around their leadership as they once were. There’s a strong conservative Catholic movement, who I’m not sure walked very strongly in lockstep with Francis.
The new pope is apparently a centrist moderate; which means to some conservative sections of the Church he’s probably practically Lenin.
It doesn't feel quite right to have an American Pope somehow - obviously I'm not a Roman Catholic so I don't have a dog in the fight.
I just don't see him going with the decor.
He's a US Peru dual national and has worked mainly in Latin America. That takes the edge off, I think.
New Pope has been fighting with Vance on Twitter. This is going to be fun. American Catholicism has got some insane people very loud in its numbers - they won’t be happy
JD Vance is fortunate he is a layman not a Priest.
When these politics were in vogue last time but, in the 1930s, there was a Far Right RC Radio Priest called Father Charles Edward Coughlin, who had a radio programme called the Golden Hour where he blamed the Bankers and the Jews for poverty in the USA, then dissembled about Kristallnacht, and support for isolationism during WW2, and became openly anti-democratic. That's partly not unlike some of Vance's positions.
He build up an audience of 30m a week, which was 25% of the population.
Being a Priest, he had sworn a vow of obedience, so he was eventually closed down by his Bishop instructing him to get off air and return to a parish.
The New Pope is potentially a problem for Trump, and perhaps especially Vance, if he takes a line with the Usonian authoritarians as Pope John Paul II did with Poland.
Checking, I see that Leo XIV is 69, whilst John Paul II was 58 in 1978, when enthroned. JPII was Pope for 27 years, and died in 2005. So we can expect perhaps 10-15 years of vigorous service from Leo XIV, everything else being equal.
What happens if the Pope asks to do a mass Mass on the Mall, then preaches against the USA regime?
I dunno. It feels to me like Catholics aren’t as united around their leadership as they once were. There’s a strong conservative Catholic movement, who I’m not sure walked very strongly in lockstep with Francis.
The new pope is apparently a centrist moderate; which means to some conservative sections of the Church he’s probably practically Lenin.
It doesn't feel quite right to have an American Pope somehow - obviously I'm not a Roman Catholic so I don't have a dog in the fight.
I just don't see him going with the decor.
He's a US Peru dual national and has worked mainly in Latin America. That takes the edge off, I think.
Seems a decent bloke.
"JD Vance is wrong: Jesus doesn't ask us to rank our love for others."
Don’t let Vance anywhere near him. We don’t need him to finish another Pope off.
On topic. I think the most interesting finding is the quite strong support from Reform voters for a coalition with the Conservatives. I'd have thought their votes wouldn't be at all keen on Reform being in partnership with any of the others.
Also, the voters are, unsurprisingly, not enamoured at the prospect of a Labour-Conservative coalition. Don't count it out.
I wandered over to Hyde park to see the Lancaster in the VE Day overflight. It was great to see it, but I didn't really hear it (London background noise) - I think you need the two ideally.
MAGA is a distinctly unChristian group though. Putting aside specific social debates around sexuality, abortion etc, Trump and co fundamentally don't believe in being kind to others. They favour obscene wealth over looking after the poor, both at home and abroad. They seek division and promote hatred towards 'the other' in various forms.
I'm no Bible scholar, but I can't think of any other group whose moral compass could be further removed from the teachings of Jesus.
I hope he voted for Kamala. If not they've made a big mistake.
If Jesus returned he certainly wouldn’t be voting for the GOP .
It cuts both ways, if he returned today God-fearing Americans would crucify him as a dangerous, woke liberal.
Loomer has already called the new Pope a "woke Marxist".
No surprise, many Americans have long wanted the hocus pocus of their religion without any of the 'feed the poor', 'judge not lest ye be judged', 'the meek shall inherit the earth', 'let he without sin cast the first stone', woke liberal nonsense.
Hence the popularity of Trump. Keep the hocus pocus of Christianity but only listen to Trump. How much easier is life if you can just replace the Sermon on the Mount with the Sermon on Electric Cars and Sharks.
I wandered over to Hyde park to see the Lancaster in the VE Day overflight. It was great to see it, but I didn't really hear it (London background noise) - I think you need the two ideally.
I wandered over to Hyde park to see the Lancaster in the VE Day overflight. It was great to see it, but I didn't really hear it (London background noise) - I think you need the two ideally.
The IWM at Duxford has a Battle of Britain Airshow later in the year
Last time I was there they had 12 Merlins in the air simultaneously. The noise was spectacular
Went in my local Co-op yesterday and it looked as bare as the peak pandemic panic-buying period. The cyberattack must really be playing havoc with their ability to deliver/re-stock.
I wandered over to Hyde park to see the Lancaster in the VE Day overflight. It was great to see it, but I didn't really hear it (London background noise) - I think you need the two ideally.
The IWM at Duxford has a Battle of Britain Airshow later in the year
Last time I was there they had 12 Merlins in the air simultaneously. The noise was spectacular
I'll have to investigate that - not been to an airshow since my early teens.
At the beginning of this year, my insurer switched me to generic Revlimid. I didn’t fight it, thinking it would result in a dramatic decrease in what ProPublica’s health plan pays for the drug.
It turns out it is not much of a savings: The generic costs $17,349 a month...
The New Pope is potentially a problem for Trump, and perhaps especially Vance, if he takes a line with the Usonian authoritarians as Pope John Paul II did with Poland.
Checking, I see that Leo XIV is 69, whilst John Paul II was 58 in 1978, when enthroned. JPII was Pope for 27 years, and died in 2005. So we can expect perhaps 10-15 years of vigorous service from Leo XIV, everything else being equal.
What happens if the Pope asks to do a mass Mass on the Mall, then preaches against the USA regime?
I dunno. It feels to me like Catholics aren’t as united around their leadership as they once were. There’s a strong conservative Catholic movement, who I’m not sure walked very strongly in lockstep with Francis.
The new pope is apparently a centrist moderate; which means to some conservative sections of the Church he’s probably practically Lenin.
It doesn't feel quite right to have an American Pope somehow - obviously I'm not a Roman Catholic so I don't have a dog in the fight.
I just don't see him going with the decor.
I'm not sure how anyone else's "We're on the brink of AGI!!!!" evening is going, but...
Have we done the Newark West Reform UK Councillor who has stood down? TBF it sounds like a paper candidate who was not expecting to be elected. We're going to need a real time counter, and he deserves credit for making a choice and not waiting 6 months by which time he is failing at both his social care role and being a County Councillor.
That's makes three in a week, plus the Hitler-Meme-on-VE-Day tweeter, whom Nonny-Nonny-Nigel is defending.
After the news about Donna Edmunds and Luke Shingler being elected as Reform UK councillors but no longer representing the party, we have a third story. This time it is Desmond Clarke, elected for Newark West ward in Nottinghamshire.
Elected last Thursday under the Reform UK banner, he is now resigning from the council, forcing a by-election.
The Newark Advertiser reports:
The party has confirmed the decision to step down from the council, with Mr Clarke stating he was “not in a position to represent the people of Newark West in the way they deserve, while at the same time continuing his career in social care, about which he is very passionate.”
But enforcement is difficult because after the pandemic forced many businesses to close brick-and-mortar stores, landlords wanting to avoid paying property taxes on vacant commercial buildings “have been prepared to allow low-quality tenants like candy stores, vape shops and souvenir shops to occupy their shops at usually less than market rents,” Sheppard said. However, for these stores to make a profit, “most must avoid paying central government taxes” such as VAT and property taxes, Sheppard added.
If the only price you can get as a rent to avoid your building being empty is a low one, then that low one is the market rent, not less than market rent.
Market rent is what the market clears at, which is the offer you accepted, not what you want.
WRT tactical voting, in most Labour-held seats, there’s not much of a Lib Dem vote left to squeeze. Labour and Lib Dem supporters sorted themselves out to defeat Conservatives incumbents.
There is frequently quite a big Tory vote left to squeeze, but that’s more likely to go Reform, rather than Labour. But, I guess most Green voters would go over to Labour.
If we started the election campaign with these numbers, I expect we’d end with something like:
Reform 39% Labour 32% Lib Dem 12% Conservative 10% Green 3%
I think you are right that you would see the Greens in particular being relentlessly squeezed.
But I think that's probably a little high for Reform - I think 36-37 is their natural ceiling, at least until after an extinction level event for the Conservative Party.
Ah, the Reform ceiling, how I have missed that ever-retreating architectural feature since we last heard from it.
If you read my comment, I suggest that - until the Conservative Party has had its extinction level event - then there is a Reform ceiling.
Now it may well be that the Conservative Party is extinguished sooner rather than later, but until that point, I suspect there will be a residual Conservative vote on the Right that stops Reform from getting into the 40s.
You are free to disagree, but I don't think this is unreasonable analysis (not anything particularly different from what I've posted in the past).
At the beginning of this year, my insurer switched me to generic Revlimid. I didn’t fight it, thinking it would result in a dramatic decrease in what ProPublica’s health plan pays for the drug.
It turns out it is not much of a savings: The generic costs $17,349 a month...
Checked out the synthesis and it's not trivial. I'm not surprised it's costly.
MAGA is a distinctly unChristian group though. Putting aside specific social debates around sexuality, abortion etc, Trump and co fundamentally don't believe in being kind to others. They favour obscene wealth over looking after the poor, both at home and abroad. They seek division and promote hatred towards 'the other' in various forms.
I'm no Bible scholar, but I can't think of any other group whose moral compass could be further removed from the teachings of Jesus.
“The election of Pope Leo XIV is a deeply profound moment of joy for Catholics in the United Kingdom and globally, and begins a new chapter for the leadership of the Church and in the world“
“Pope Leo is the first American Pope. This is a momentous moment. As Pope Francis’ papacy showed, the Holy See has a special role to play in bringing people and nations together to address the major issues of our time; especially on climate change, alleviating poverty and promoting peace and justice across the world”
This fisks as: Isn't it nice that we have a chance of an American leader with global reach who DJT can't sack who can speak for non Trumpian Americans and the rest of us reasonably normal people about good stuff and with luck wouldn't be a total embarrassment if he comes for tea with the king and me, and I hope he does.
I wandered over to Hyde park to see the Lancaster in the VE Day overflight. It was great to see it, but I didn't really hear it (London background noise) - I think you need the two ideally.
...or one Lancaster anywhere but over London.
I'm sure they were a very rare sight in London skys.
My uncle flew in Lancasters, almost exclusively after the war. They flew over Germany though, and apparently were quite keen to have bombing runs whereby they vented the onboard loo.
Another uncle (a pilot) was killed flying Ansons - I think testing radar (something secret at the time anyway) - which didn't work out because he hit a mountain.
At the beginning of this year, my insurer switched me to generic Revlimid. I didn’t fight it, thinking it would result in a dramatic decrease in what ProPublica’s health plan pays for the drug.
It turns out it is not much of a savings: The generic costs $17,349 a month...
Checked out the synthesis and it's not trivial. I'm not surprised it's costly.
It's a generic drug which costs literally pennies to manufacture. The synthesis is long since a solved problem.
Interesting poll from Yougov with a Labour and LD coalition most popular, 10 years after the Tory and LD coalition was ended by the 2015 Conservative majority. This time Labour has a majority so some symmetry in the opposite direction.
While most Labour voters oppose any deal with the Conservatives and Reform, as most Conservative and Reform voters oppose any deal with Labour over half of current Tory voters would back a deal with the LDs again, 55%, indeed identical to the number who would deal with Reform. More Reform voters 66% than Tory voters back a Tory and Reform deal and 40% of LD voters are still willing to deal with the Tories but just 5% of LDs with Reform
At the beginning of this year, my insurer switched me to generic Revlimid. I didn’t fight it, thinking it would result in a dramatic decrease in what ProPublica’s health plan pays for the drug.
It turns out it is not much of a savings: The generic costs $17,349 a month...
Checked out the synthesis and it's not trivial. I'm not surprised it's costly.
It's a generic drug which costs literally pennies to manufacture. The synthesis is long since a solved problem.
Yes I misread. I think the evidence for it being 25 cents a pill is a bit weak, but it's clearly not being priced anywhere near the actual cost. Still this is what happens with patents etc. You make your money when you can as soon you won't be able to
So we have the first US born American Pope (with Peruvian citizenship too), certainly not one of the favourites. Will also be the first time a Protestant majority nation has produced a Pope (even if a plurality of Americans are Roman Catholic a majority belong to an evangelical or mainline Protestant church).
He is a shade more conservative than Francis was on social issues but still relatively moderate in RC terms
“The election of Pope Leo XIV is a deeply profound moment of joy for Catholics in the United Kingdom and globally, and begins a new chapter for the leadership of the Church and in the world“
“Pope Leo is the first American Pope. This is a momentous moment. As Pope Francis’ papacy showed, the Holy See has a special role to play in bringing people and nations together to address the major issues of our time; especially on climate change, alleviating poverty and promoting peace and justice across the world”
This fisks as: Isn't it nice that we have a chance of an American leader with global reach who DJT can't sack who can speak for non Trumpian Americans and the rest of us reasonably normal people about good stuff and with luck wouldn't be a total embarrassment if he comes for tea with the king and me, and I hope he does.
SKS has it exactly right.
If you feel the rest of his inane tripe improves the impression given by the middle stanza, I am happy for you.
I wandered over to Hyde park to see the Lancaster in the VE Day overflight. It was great to see it, but I didn't really hear it (London background noise) - I think you need the two ideally.
...or one Lancaster anywhere but over London.
I'm sure they were a very rare sight in London skys.
My uncle flew in Lancasters, almost exclusively after the war. They flew over Germany though, and apparently were quite keen to have bombing runs whereby they vented the onboard loo.
Another uncle (a pilot) was killed flying Ansons - I think testing radar (something secret at the time anyway) - which didn't work out because he hit a mountain.
We have a trade agreement with the US too which should mean our car and steel industries now avoid even the 10% minimum tariffs Trump had imposed on global imports. Farmers will want to see the small print but does seem like we have avoided chlorinated chicken too and got easier access for UK food exports to the US market so some success for Starmer today
We have a trade agreement with the US too which should mean our car and steel industries now avoid even the 10% minimum tariffs Trump had imposed on global imports. Farmers will want to see the small print but does seem like we have avoided chlorinated chicken too and got easier access for UK food exports to the US market so some success for Starmer today
I agree. On the surface it seems fine.
Kemi seems not to think so but I don't know what she's going on.
Exciting to hear the Tories attacking the trade deal with Gilead as "we've just been shafted". The response from both industry and union bodies appears to be mostly positive, with key red lines protected.
Compare and contrast with the Tory AuzNZ deal which was so bad that news media there were openly laughing at us for giving so much away for such little in return.
We know what the Kemi mentality is. Unless the Tories did it, we get shafted. Nobody is listening any more Kemi!
If you read my posts I have been unusually complimentary of Starmer and the deal and contrasted his closeness to Trump with Davey's anti Trump rhetoric
Ironically it won't change my vote but it may actually help the Lib Dems as I expect the left are not at all impressed with Starmer’s relationship with Trump
As far as Kemi is concerned I am ambivalent towards her and the conservative party are not at the races at present
I see the Liberal Democrats as just a sort of holding gully for voters as they ebb away from Labour. I don't see them voting Lib Dem in the event, unless their policies change completely. What's the point in voting for something identical to Labour but with more larking about on logflumes? We will need solutions to growth, law and order, and immigration, and they don't have any.
Larking about on logflumes..😆 Pretty much nails everything about the unserious Lib Dem leadership..😏
I think you may be rather underestimating the Lib Dems, both as campaigners and as policy makers. Once they get elected, they are generally extremely difficult to defeat. The Tories are in very serious difficulty, and the Lib Dems are steadily rising at elections and in the polls. I think there is a fair chance that the Lib Dems will out poll the Tories at the Scottish Parliament elections, and that has serious repercussions if the Tories still have any hope of being a national party.
Yet the most fundamentally unserious party is RefUK- the paper councillors will cause them significant headaches in the coming months, so watch for defections and resignations in that quarter. Ed Davey is getting traction with his attacks on Farage as the Poundland Trump, so the idea that NF Nigel will get things all his own way is mostly in the drug addled brains of the right wing and fash-curious media types.
At the beginning of this year, my insurer switched me to generic Revlimid. I didn’t fight it, thinking it would result in a dramatic decrease in what ProPublica’s health plan pays for the drug.
It turns out it is not much of a savings: The generic costs $17,349 a month...
Checked out the synthesis and it's not trivial. I'm not surprised it's costly.
It's a generic drug which costs literally pennies to manufacture. The synthesis is long since a solved problem.
Yes I misread. I think the evidence for it being 25 cents a pill is a bit weak, but it's clearly not being priced anywhere near the actual cost. Still this is what happens with patents etc. You make your money when you can as soon you won't be able to
We have a trade agreement with the US too which should mean our car and steel industries now avoid even the 10% minimum tariffs Trump had imposed on global imports. Farmers will want to see the small print but does seem like we have avoided chlorinated chicken too and got easier access for UK food exports to the US market so some success for Starmer today
Assuming, even if all of that is true, that Trump actually keeps his word.
And that is the snag with trying to deal with Trump, as, for example, his lawyers have found out. He regards honouring deals as something that other people do.
But I think there’s an imminent deescalation with China coming.
1. We are just weeks away from a full collapse of our economy without Chinese inventory. If ships start leaving China this weekend, they’ll get to the U.S. just in time to avoid that disaster.
We have a trade agreement with the US too which should mean our car and steel industries now avoid even the 10% minimum tariffs Trump had imposed on global imports. Farmers will want to see the small print but does seem like we have avoided chlorinated chicken too and got easier access for UK food exports to the US market so some success for Starmer today
I agree. On the surface it seems fine.
Kemi seems not to think so but I don't know what she's going on.
I’m afraid to say she’s going on being an unserious opportunist.
I don’t hold much love for Starmer, but fair play, it looks like he’s got a decent-ish result out of this at the moment, and let’s hope it bears out that way.
Kemi should probably welcome it, say the government should try and continue negotiations to keep bettering the position, but otherwise I think she should keep out of it.
On Reform, I'm not sure it's in their interests to make the jump to a majority government in one go. As opposed to becoming the Official Opposition to a Labour-Lib Dem grouping first.
1) They have absolutely no government, opposition or parliamentary experience in which to draw on. None. And governing effectively is a fuck-tonne more work and requires different skills to campaigning against incumbents. Labour has found this to some degree, but Reform would be starting from a much worse position.
2) Rising fast - and then failing in government - could see an equally precipitous fall from grace. Whereas if there has been 5 years of Tory irrelevance as fourth party first (while Reform is opposition), it will be harder for the Tories to rebound quickly.
I don't deny Reform are well placed and could make this jump to government from a handful of seats. But it does no guarantee their longevity. The UK is facing various structural headwinds and governing is hard. It would not surprise me if their failure was pretty dramatic in nature.
Exciting to hear the Tories attacking the trade deal with Gilead as "we've just been shafted". The response from both industry and union bodies appears to be mostly positive, with key red lines protected.
Compare and contrast with the Tory AuzNZ deal which was so bad that news media there were openly laughing at us for giving so much away for such little in return.
We know what the Kemi mentality is. Unless the Tories did it, we get shafted. Nobody is listening any more Kemi!
If you read my posts I have been unusually complimentary of Starmer and the deal and contrasted his closeness to Trump with Davey's anti Trump rhetoric
Ironically it won't change my vote but it may actually help the Lib Dems as I expect the left are not at all impressed with Starmer’s relationship with Trump
As far as Kemi is concerned I am ambivalent towards her and the conservative party are not at the races at present
I see the Liberal Democrats as just a sort of holding gully for voters as they ebb away from Labour. I don't see them voting Lib Dem in the event, unless their policies change completely. What's the point in voting for something identical to Labour but with more larking about on logflumes? We will need solutions to growth, law and order, and immigration, and they don't have any.
Larking about on logflumes..😆 Pretty much nails everything about the unserious Lib Dem leadership..😏
I think you may be rather underestimating the Lib Dems, both as campaigners and as policy makers. Once they get elected, they are generally extremely difficult to defeat. The Tories are in very serious difficulty, and the Lib Dems are steadily rising at elections and in the polls. I think there is a fair chance that the Lib Dems will out poll the Tories at the Scottish Parliament elections, and that has serious repercussions if the Tories still have any hope of being a national party.
Yet the most fundamentally unserious party is RefUK- the paper councillors will cause them significant headaches in the coming months, so watch for defections and resignations in that quarter. Ed Davey is getting traction with his attacks on Farage as the Poundland Trump, so the idea that NF Nigel will get things all his own way is mostly in the drug addled brains of the right wing and fash-curious media types.
Ahahahahahahahah you fucking plonker
Or... the reason the LDs are difficult to dislodge is that elections swing almost entirely on the unpopularity of national governments, and the LDs are never in national government - except when they were and were subject to the same voter grumpiness as every other governing party.
The New Pope is potentially a problem for Trump, and perhaps especially Vance, if he takes a line with the Usonian authoritarians as Pope John Paul II did with Poland.
Checking, I see that Leo XIV is 69, whilst John Paul II was 58 in 1978, when enthroned. JPII was Pope for 27 years, and died in 2005. So we can expect perhaps 10-15 years of vigorous service from Leo XIV, everything else being equal.
What happens if the Pope asks to do a mass Mass on the Mall, then preaches against the USA regime?
I dunno. It feels to me like Catholics aren’t as united around their leadership as they once were. There’s a strong conservative Catholic movement, who I’m not sure walked very strongly in lockstep with Francis.
The new pope is apparently a centrist moderate; which means to some conservative sections of the Church he’s probably practically Lenin.
'Prevost has stated that the the Catholic church should take greater action against climate change. "Dominion over nature" should not be "tyrannical", he said in a November 2024 seminar.[47]
Social and political issues Prevost does not support the ordination of women to the diaconate: it "doesn't necessarily solve a problem", and "it might make a new problem".[48]
As a bishop[when?] Prevost opposed the inclusion of curriculum regarding "teachings on gender in schools" in Peru, stating that the "promotion of gender ideology is confusing, because it seeks to create genders that don't exist".[49]
An acquaintance of Pope Leo XIV, Jesus Leon Angeles, noted that he cares for Venezuelan refugees in Peru.[50]
After Pope Francis's 2023 declaration Fiducia supplicans allowed Catholic priests to bless couples who are not married according to church teaching (including same-sex couples), he said the declaration would be ineffective in parts of Africa where homosexuality is still illegal: "our cultural situation is such that the application of this document is just not going to work".[51] Earlier, in 2012, Prevost observed that popular culture fostered "sympathy for beliefs and practices that are at odds with the Gospel", citing the "homosexual lifestyle" and "alternative families comprised of same-sex partners and their adopted children".[49]
According to public voter records, Prevost has twice voted in Republican primaries.[52] On Twitter, Prevost has criticized abortion, contraceptives, and the death penalty;[53] while also expressing sympathy for George Floyd and criticizing U.S. President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance's views on immigration.[54]'
So the new Pope is anti trans and anti women priests and bishops and anti abortion and even anti blessing same sex couples as Francis supported anti same sex couples adopting, so on social issues takes a conservative Catholic stance. On female ordination and PLF for same sex couples the C of E will still take a more liberal line than the RC church. Indeed he was once a registered Republican and on those issues Trump and Vance would find him at one with then.
On issues like climate change and immigration however like Francis he is closer to the liberal left and firmly critical of Trump's deportations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pope_Leo_XIV#Views
Exciting to hear the Tories attacking the trade deal with Gilead as "we've just been shafted". The response from both industry and union bodies appears to be mostly positive, with key red lines protected.
Compare and contrast with the Tory AuzNZ deal which was so bad that news media there were openly laughing at us for giving so much away for such little in return.
We know what the Kemi mentality is. Unless the Tories did it, we get shafted. Nobody is listening any more Kemi!
If you read my posts I have been unusually complimentary of Starmer and the deal and contrasted his closeness to Trump with Davey's anti Trump rhetoric
Ironically it won't change my vote but it may actually help the Lib Dems as I expect the left are not at all impressed with Starmer’s relationship with Trump
As far as Kemi is concerned I am ambivalent towards her and the conservative party are not at the races at present
I see the Liberal Democrats as just a sort of holding gully for voters as they ebb away from Labour. I don't see them voting Lib Dem in the event, unless their policies change completely. What's the point in voting for something identical to Labour but with more larking about on logflumes? We will need solutions to growth, law and order, and immigration, and they don't have any.
Larking about on logflumes..😆 Pretty much nails everything about the unserious Lib Dem leadership..😏
I think you may be rather underestimating the Lib Dems, both as campaigners and as policy makers. Once they get elected, they are generally extremely difficult to defeat. The Tories are in very serious difficulty, and the Lib Dems are steadily rising at elections and in the polls. I think there is a fair chance that the Lib Dems will out poll the Tories at the Scottish Parliament elections, and that has serious repercussions if the Tories still have any hope of being a national party.
Yet the most fundamentally unserious party is RefUK- the paper councillors will cause them significant headaches in the coming months, so watch for defections and resignations in that quarter. Ed Davey is getting traction with his attacks on Farage as the Poundland Trump, so the idea that NF Nigel will get things all his own way is mostly in the drug addled brains of the right wing and fash-curious media types.
Ahahahahahahahah you fucking plonker
I wasn't aware that Ed Davey had attacked NF as 'the Poundland Trump' - what a repulsive thing to say on so many levels. Seems an awful man with his uncomfortable forced hilarity throwing himself on to the nearest available ducking stool with that mirthless grin.
“The election of Pope Leo XIV is a deeply profound moment of joy for Catholics in the United Kingdom and globally, and begins a new chapter for the leadership of the Church and in the world“
“Pope Leo is the first American Pope. This is a momentous moment. As Pope Francis’ papacy showed, the Holy See has a special role to play in bringing people and nations together to address the major issues of our time; especially on climate change, alleviating poverty and promoting peace and justice across the world”
This fisks as: Isn't it nice that we have a chance of an American leader with global reach who DJT can't sack who can speak for non Trumpian Americans and the rest of us reasonably normal people about good stuff and with luck wouldn't be a total embarrassment if he comes for tea with the king and me, and I hope he does.
SKS has it exactly right.
If you feel the rest of his inane tripe improves the impression given by the middle stanza, I am happy for you.
Thanks. I am cheered by the thought of an American with global reach who may be a decent person. Maybe SKS is too.
I accept that SKS isn't Keats with words, nor do I want him rewriting Wordsworth's Prelude. But it's workmanlike and does the job.
“The election of Pope Leo XIV is a deeply profound moment of joy for Catholics in the United Kingdom and globally, and begins a new chapter for the leadership of the Church and in the world“
“Pope Leo is the first American Pope. This is a momentous moment. As Pope Francis’ papacy showed, the Holy See has a special role to play in bringing people and nations together to address the major issues of our time; especially on climate change, alleviating poverty and promoting peace and justice across the world”
This fisks as: Isn't it nice that we have a chance of an American leader with global reach who DJT can't sack who can speak for non Trumpian Americans and the rest of us reasonably normal people about good stuff and with luck wouldn't be a total embarrassment if he comes for tea with the king and me, and I hope he does.
SKS has it exactly right.
If you feel the rest of his inane tripe improves the impression given by the middle stanza, I am happy for you.
Thanks. I am cheered by the thought of an American with global reach who may be a decent person. Maybe SKS is too.
I accept that SKS isn't Keats with words, nor do I want him rewriting Wordsworth's Prelude. But it's workmanlike and does the job.
Perhaps if Starmer makes our country poor enough, we can talk to Pope Leo about alleviating our poverty.
Exciting to hear the Tories attacking the trade deal with Gilead as "we've just been shafted". The response from both industry and union bodies appears to be mostly positive, with key red lines protected.
Compare and contrast with the Tory AuzNZ deal which was so bad that news media there were openly laughing at us for giving so much away for such little in return.
We know what the Kemi mentality is. Unless the Tories did it, we get shafted. Nobody is listening any more Kemi!
If you read my posts I have been unusually complimentary of Starmer and the deal and contrasted his closeness to Trump with Davey's anti Trump rhetoric
Ironically it won't change my vote but it may actually help the Lib Dems as I expect the left are not at all impressed with Starmer’s relationship with Trump
As far as Kemi is concerned I am ambivalent towards her and the conservative party are not at the races at present
I see the Liberal Democrats as just a sort of holding gully for voters as they ebb away from Labour. I don't see them voting Lib Dem in the event, unless their policies change completely. What's the point in voting for something identical to Labour but with more larking about on logflumes? We will need solutions to growth, law and order, and immigration, and they don't have any.
Larking about on logflumes..😆 Pretty much nails everything about the unserious Lib Dem leadership..😏
I think you may be rather underestimating the Lib Dems, both as campaigners and as policy makers. Once they get elected, they are generally extremely difficult to defeat. The Tories are in very serious difficulty, and the Lib Dems are steadily rising at elections and in the polls. I think there is a fair chance that the Lib Dems will out poll the Tories at the Scottish Parliament elections, and that has serious repercussions if the Tories still have any hope of being a national party.
Yet the most fundamentally unserious party is RefUK- the paper councillors will cause them significant headaches in the coming months, so watch for defections and resignations in that quarter. Ed Davey is getting traction with his attacks on Farage as the Poundland Trump, so the idea that NF Nigel will get things all his own way is mostly in the drug addled brains of the right wing and fash-curious media types.
Ahahahahahahahah you fucking plonker
I wasn't aware that Ed Davey had attacked NF as 'the Poundland Trump' - what a repulsive thing to say on so many levels. Seems an awful man with his uncomfortable forced hilarity throwing himself on to the nearest available ducking stool with that mirthless grin.
However, I'm sure he's nice irl.
Well, yes, but even allowing for him being all those things it's going a bit far to call him a Poundland Trump.
At that level of Reform share, tactical voting doesn't help non-Reform parties much: that points to a clear Reform majority, and it's entirely possible that the LibDems end up the official opposition.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
Normally tipping point is just hyperbole but I wonder if one has now actually been reached
Yes, if we're ever going to get a tipping point, this must be it
THAT SAID, we need a few more polls with similar numbers to this, not from Find Out Now. That said again, Find Out Now were arguably closer to the local elex results than other pollsters, so maybe Find Out Now are actually superior at polling this new situation with this new party
Basically, anyone supporting the Tories who wants a change from Labour now needs to shift to Reform. I just can't see the Tories coming back from 16%, unless they get Boris in and he does a miracle, or somehow Jenrick.....
Nah
Reform need to drop the Putinism and Hunt-up their economics before I'd consider them
They aren't seeking your vote and do not need it, as we see
I reckon Reform's ceiling is around 35-37%, but with the rest of the field hopelessly divided, that will be enough for them to win a large majority
Of course this is still years away blah blah
Speaking as a fellow right-wing ex-Tory, I doubt that Reform are seeking my vote, but I 100% think they are seeking Casino's . . . and to win an election, they'd need it.
Casino is an affluent centre right dude in the SE of England. Reform would like his vote, but they really do not need it, there are enough votes for them elsewhere
TLDR: they don’t need intelligent votes when the world has so many morons
Only a moron would give their vote to either Labour or the Tories, after the last 20 years
You've done both recently, of course.
And now Reform.
Look in the mirror.
Do you REALLY believe I voted for KEIR FUCKING STARMER in a General Election? Or do you think I was just winding up @kinabalu?
“The election of Pope Leo XIV is a deeply profound moment of joy for Catholics in the United Kingdom and globally, and begins a new chapter for the leadership of the Church and in the world“
“Pope Leo is the first American Pope. This is a momentous moment. As Pope Francis’ papacy showed, the Holy See has a special role to play in bringing people and nations together to address the major issues of our time; especially on climate change, alleviating poverty and promoting peace and justice across the world”
This fisks as: Isn't it nice that we have a chance of an American leader with global reach who DJT can't sack who can speak for non Trumpian Americans and the rest of us reasonably normal people about good stuff and with luck wouldn't be a total embarrassment if he comes for tea with the king and me, and I hope he does.
SKS has it exactly right.
If you feel the rest of his inane tripe improves the impression given by the middle stanza, I am happy for you.
Thanks. I am cheered by the thought of an American with global reach who may be a decent person. Maybe SKS is too.
I accept that SKS isn't Keats with words, nor do I want him rewriting Wordsworth's Prelude. But it's workmanlike and does the job.
I wandered over to Hyde park to see the Lancaster in the VE Day overflight. It was great to see it, but I didn't really hear it (London background noise) - I think you need the two ideally.
...or one Lancaster anywhere but over London.
I'm sure they were a very rare sight in London skys.
My uncle flew in Lancasters, almost exclusively after the war. They flew over Germany though, and apparently were quite keen to have bombing runs whereby they vented the onboard loo.
Another uncle (a pilot) was killed flying Ansons - I think testing radar (something secret at the time anyway) - which didn't work out because he hit a mountain.
I hadn't realised over 11,000 Ansons were built.
Neither had I until you posted. Wikipedia suggests 824 pre-ww2, which again I find amazing.
Anyway, either my uncle, the Anson, secret radar stuff, or Irish mountains caused the crash.
At the beginning of this year, my insurer switched me to generic Revlimid. I didn’t fight it, thinking it would result in a dramatic decrease in what ProPublica’s health plan pays for the drug.
It turns out it is not much of a savings: The generic costs $17,349 a month...
Checked out the synthesis and it's not trivial. I'm not surprised it's costly.
It's a generic drug which costs literally pennies to manufacture. The synthesis is long since a solved problem.
Yes I misread. I think the evidence for it being 25 cents a pill is a bit weak, but it's clearly not being priced anywhere near the actual cost. Still this is what happens with patents etc. You make your money when you can as soon you won't be able to
WRT tactical voting, in most Labour-held seats, there’s not much of a Lib Dem vote left to squeeze. Labour and Lib Dem supporters sorted themselves out to defeat Conservatives incumbents.
There is frequently quite a big Tory vote left to squeeze, but that’s more likely to go Reform, rather than Labour. But, I guess most Green voters would go over to Labour.
If we started the election campaign with these numbers, I expect we’d end with something like:
Reform 39% Labour 32% Lib Dem 12% Conservative 10% Green 3%
Yougov has 25% of Tories putting the LDs as their ideal coalition partners, 7% the Greens and only 34% Reform.
So barely more than half of Tories on a forced choice would switch to Reform, so hard to see the Tories collapsing to Reform to the extent you have them doing and more likely Labour and Reform would be neck and neck
Exciting to hear the Tories attacking the trade deal with Gilead as "we've just been shafted". The response from both industry and union bodies appears to be mostly positive, with key red lines protected.
Compare and contrast with the Tory AuzNZ deal which was so bad that news media there were openly laughing at us for giving so much away for such little in return.
We know what the Kemi mentality is. Unless the Tories did it, we get shafted. Nobody is listening any more Kemi!
If you read my posts I have been unusually complimentary of Starmer and the deal and contrasted his closeness to Trump with Davey's anti Trump rhetoric
Ironically it won't change my vote but it may actually help the Lib Dems as I expect the left are not at all impressed with Starmer’s relationship with Trump
As far as Kemi is concerned I am ambivalent towards her and the conservative party are not at the races at present
I see the Liberal Democrats as just a sort of holding gully for voters as they ebb away from Labour. I don't see them voting Lib Dem in the event, unless their policies change completely. What's the point in voting for something identical to Labour but with more larking about on logflumes? We will need solutions to growth, law and order, and immigration, and they don't have any.
Larking about on logflumes..😆 Pretty much nails everything about the unserious Lib Dem leadership..😏
I think you may be rather underestimating the Lib Dems, both as campaigners and as policy makers. Once they get elected, they are generally extremely difficult to defeat. The Tories are in very serious difficulty, and the Lib Dems are steadily rising at elections and in the polls. I think there is a fair chance that the Lib Dems will out poll the Tories at the Scottish Parliament elections, and that has serious repercussions if the Tories still have any hope of being a national party.
Yet the most fundamentally unserious party is RefUK- the paper councillors will cause them significant headaches in the coming months, so watch for defections and resignations in that quarter. Ed Davey is getting traction with his attacks on Farage as the Poundland Trump, so the idea that NF Nigel will get things all his own way is mostly in the drug addled brains of the right wing and fash-curious media types.
Ahahahahahahahah you fucking plonker
If that's the best you can come up with... you need to leave the pub.
At that level of Reform share, tactical voting doesn't help non-Reform parties much: that points to a clear Reform majority, and it's entirely possible that the LibDems end up the official opposition.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
Normally tipping point is just hyperbole but I wonder if one has now actually been reached
Yes, if we're ever going to get a tipping point, this must be it
THAT SAID, we need a few more polls with similar numbers to this, not from Find Out Now. That said again, Find Out Now were arguably closer to the local elex results than other pollsters, so maybe Find Out Now are actually superior at polling this new situation with this new party
Basically, anyone supporting the Tories who wants a change from Labour now needs to shift to Reform. I just can't see the Tories coming back from 16%, unless they get Boris in and he does a miracle, or somehow Jenrick.....
Nah
Reform need to drop the Putinism and Hunt-up their economics before I'd consider them
They aren't seeking your vote and do not need it, as we see
I reckon Reform's ceiling is around 35-37%, but with the rest of the field hopelessly divided, that will be enough for them to win a large majority
Of course this is still years away blah blah
Speaking as a fellow right-wing ex-Tory, I doubt that Reform are seeking my vote, but I 100% think they are seeking Casino's . . . and to win an election, they'd need it.
Casino is an affluent centre right dude in the SE of England. Reform would like his vote, but they really do not need it, there are enough votes for them elsewhere
TLDR: they don’t need intelligent votes when the world has so many morons
Only a moron would give their vote to either Labour or the Tories, after the last 20 years
You've done both recently, of course.
And now Reform.
Look in the mirror.
Do you REALLY believe I voted for KEIR FUCKING STARMER in a General Election? Or do you think I was just winding up @kinabalu?
The New Pope is potentially a problem for Trump, and perhaps especially Vance, if he takes a line with the Usonian authoritarians as Pope John Paul II did with Poland.
Checking, I see that Leo XIV is 69, whilst John Paul II was 58 in 1978, when enthroned. JPII was Pope for 27 years, and died in 2005. So we can expect perhaps 10-15 years of vigorous service from Leo XIV, everything else being equal.
What happens if the Pope asks to do a mass Mass on the Mall, then preaches against the USA regime?
I dunno. It feels to me like Catholics aren’t as united around their leadership as they once were. There’s a strong conservative Catholic movement, who I’m not sure walked very strongly in lockstep with Francis.
The new pope is apparently a centrist moderate; which means to some conservative sections of the Church he’s probably practically Lenin.
'Prevost has stated that the the Catholic church should take greater action against climate change. "Dominion over nature" should not be "tyrannical", he said in a November 2024 seminar.[47]
Social and political issues Prevost does not support the ordination of women to the diaconate: it "doesn't necessarily solve a problem", and "it might make a new problem".[48]
As a bishop[when?] Prevost opposed the inclusion of curriculum regarding "teachings on gender in schools" in Peru, stating that the "promotion of gender ideology is confusing, because it seeks to create genders that don't exist".[49]
An acquaintance of Pope Leo XIV, Jesus Leon Angeles, noted that he cares for Venezuelan refugees in Peru.[50]
After Pope Francis's 2023 declaration Fiducia supplicans allowed Catholic priests to bless couples who are not married according to church teaching (including same-sex couples), he said the declaration would be ineffective in parts of Africa where homosexuality is still illegal: "our cultural situation is such that the application of this document is just not going to work".[51] Earlier, in 2012, Prevost observed that popular culture fostered "sympathy for beliefs and practices that are at odds with the Gospel", citing the "homosexual lifestyle" and "alternative families comprised of same-sex partners and their adopted children".[49]
According to public voter records, Prevost has twice voted in Republican primaries.[52] On Twitter, Prevost has criticized abortion, contraceptives, and the death penalty;[53] while also expressing sympathy for George Floyd and criticizing U.S. President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance's views on immigration.[54]'
So the new Pope is anti trans and anti women priests and bishops and anti abortion and even anti blessing same sex couples as Francis supported anti same sex couples adopting, so on social issues takes a conservative Catholic stance. On female ordination and PLF for same sex couples the C of E will still take a more liberal line than the RC church. Indeed he was once a registered Republican and on those issues Trump and Vance would find him at one with then.
On issues like climate change and immigration however like Francis he is closer to the liberal left and firmly critical of Trump's deportations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pope_Leo_XIV#Views
Sounds decently middle of the road (where the road is the Catholic Church). Something for everyone.
“The election of Pope Leo XIV is a deeply profound moment of joy for Catholics in the United Kingdom and globally, and begins a new chapter for the leadership of the Church and in the world“
“Pope Leo is the first American Pope. This is a momentous moment. As Pope Francis’ papacy showed, the Holy See has a special role to play in bringing people and nations together to address the major issues of our time; especially on climate change, alleviating poverty and promoting peace and justice across the world”
This fisks as: Isn't it nice that we have a chance of an American leader with global reach who DJT can't sack who can speak for non Trumpian Americans and the rest of us reasonably normal people about good stuff and with luck wouldn't be a total embarrassment if he comes for tea with the king and me, and I hope he does.
SKS has it exactly right.
If you feel the rest of his inane tripe improves the impression given by the middle stanza, I am happy for you.
Thanks. I am cheered by the thought of an American with global reach who may be a decent person. Maybe SKS is too.
I accept that SKS isn't Keats with words, nor do I want him rewriting Wordsworth's Prelude. But it's workmanlike and does the job.
Comments
But I think that's probably a little high for Reform - I think 36-37 is their natural ceiling, at least until after an extinction level event for the Conservative Party.
I haven't seen any details of the deal except what has been said here, but I dare say there's enough shaftiness in it to warrant the outburst in the eyes of many.
The clucking disapproval about it here is a bit gamey given that if exactly the same statement had come from Sir Ed Davey the same cohort would be describing it as a masterful piece of political genius playing upon the British electorate's distrust of Trump yadayadayada.
ETA: I think tactical voting on 03/05/2029 will be an absolute nightmare.
The more politically uninterested people may have got a vague sense that not only has Trump been made the first transatlantic pope, but that Starmer has managed to seal both a cultural and economic trade deal with him.
https://changeresearch.substack.com/p/kamala-harris-didnt-lose-to-the-couch
That's makes three in a week, plus the Hitler-Meme-on-VE-Day tweeter, whom Nonny-Nonny-Nigel is defending.
After the news about Donna Edmunds and Luke Shingler being elected as Reform UK councillors but no longer representing the party, we have a third story. This time it is Desmond Clarke, elected for Newark West ward in Nottinghamshire.
Elected last Thursday under the Reform UK banner, he is now resigning from the council, forcing a by-election.
The Newark Advertiser reports:
The party has confirmed the decision to step down from the council, with Mr Clarke stating he was “not in a position to represent the people of Newark West in the way they deserve, while at the same time continuing his career in social care, about which he is very passionate.”
https://www.markpack.org.uk/174672/luke-shingler-reform-uk-councillor/
https://thehill.com/policy/international/5290603-bill-gates-elon-musk-doge-usaid-cuts/
It will have escaped nobody’s attention in this House that this agreement with the United States has been reached on the 80th anniversary of Victory in Europe Day. That victory was secured not simply by the heroism and courage of the British armed forces, but by strong transatlantic alliances that have served us well over the eight subsequent decades. In the coming years, the Government of the United Kingdom will continue to work to secure international agreements that uphold our national interests.
https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2025-05-08/debates/BBFBC52E-FBD4-466A-A0D1-5A745E53B564/TradeNegotiations
Seth McFarlane must be kicking himself
😀
Well, had suggests past tense 😬
Checking, I see that Leo XIV is 69, whilst John Paul II was 58 in 1978, when enthroned. JPII was Pope for 27 years, and died in 2005. So we can expect perhaps 10-15 years of vigorous service from Leo XIV, everything else being equal.
What happens if the Pope asks to do a mass Mass on the Mall, then preaches against the USA regime?
Surgery patients are not regarded as fully recovered until they have audibly farted.
The new pope is apparently a centrist moderate; which means to some conservative sections of the Church he’s probably practically Lenin.
Turns out he’s a retired Scottish tobacco dealer from Rhodesia (his descriptor)
I just don't see him going with the decor.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/05/08/ed-martin-jan-6-trump-pardon-protester-00334168
"JD Vance is wrong: Jesus doesn't ask us to rank our love for others."
When these politics were in vogue last time but, in the 1930s, there was a Far Right RC Radio Priest called Father Charles Edward Coughlin, who had a radio programme called the Golden Hour where he blamed the Bankers and the Jews for poverty in the USA, then dissembled about Kristallnacht, and support for isolationism during WW2, and became openly anti-democratic. That's partly not unlike some of Vance's positions.
He build up an audience of 30m a week, which was 25% of the population.
Being a Priest, he had sworn a vow of obedience, so he was eventually closed down by his Bishop instructing him to get off air and return to a parish.
That can't happen to Vance.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Coughlin
https://www.flightradar24.com/PA474/3a3f12e7
https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1920545025731043349
Also, the voters are, unsurprisingly, not enamoured at the prospect of a Labour-Conservative coalition. Don't count it out.
Sir Obvious, not Pope Leo.
https://x.com/nypost/status/1920521859331727844?s=61
I'm no Bible scholar, but I can't think of any other group whose moral compass could be further removed from the teachings of Jesus.
Hence the popularity of Trump. Keep the hocus pocus of Christianity but only listen to Trump. How much easier is life if you can just replace the Sermon on the Mount with the Sermon on Electric Cars and Sharks.
Last time I was there they had 12 Merlins in the air simultaneously. The noise was spectacular
It costs a couple of dollars to manufacture.
https://www.propublica.org/article/revlimid-price-cancer-celgene-drugs-fda-multiple-myeloma
...Last July, the cost of my monthly Revlimid prescription increased by 7% to $19,660.
At the beginning of this year, my insurer switched me to generic Revlimid. I didn’t fight it, thinking it would result in a dramatic decrease in what ProPublica’s health plan pays for the drug.
It turns out it is not much of a savings: The generic costs $17,349 a month...
https://ibb.co/vvdsGFGf
(Attempted chat with state-of-the-art LLMs...)
But enforcement is difficult because after the pandemic forced many businesses to close brick-and-mortar stores, landlords wanting to avoid paying property taxes on vacant commercial buildings “have been prepared to allow low-quality tenants like candy stores, vape shops and souvenir shops to occupy their shops at usually less than market rents,” Sheppard said. However, for these stores to make a profit, “most must avoid paying central government taxes” such as VAT and property taxes, Sheppard added.
If the only price you can get as a rent to avoid your building being empty is a low one, then that low one is the market rent, not less than market rent.
Market rent is what the market clears at, which is the offer you accepted, not what you want.
Now it may well be that the Conservative Party is extinguished sooner rather than later, but until that point, I suspect there will be a residual Conservative vote on the Right that stops Reform from getting into the 40s.
You are free to disagree, but I don't think this is unreasonable analysis (not anything particularly different from what I've posted in the past).
“The election of Pope Leo XIV is a deeply profound moment of joy for Catholics in the United Kingdom and globally, and begins a new chapter for the leadership of the Church and in the world“
“Pope Leo is the first American Pope. This is a momentous moment. As Pope Francis’ papacy showed, the Holy See has a special role to play in bringing people and nations together to address the major issues of our time; especially on climate change, alleviating poverty and promoting peace and justice across the world”
This fisks as: Isn't it nice that we have a chance of an American leader with global reach who DJT can't sack who can speak for non Trumpian Americans and the rest of us reasonably normal people about good stuff and with luck wouldn't be a total embarrassment if he comes for tea with the king and me, and I hope he does.
SKS has it exactly right.
My uncle flew in Lancasters, almost exclusively after the war. They flew over Germany though, and apparently were quite keen to have bombing runs whereby they vented the onboard loo.
Another uncle (a pilot) was killed flying Ansons - I think testing radar (something secret at the time anyway) - which didn't work out because he hit a mountain.
The synthesis is long since a solved problem.
While most Labour voters oppose any deal with the Conservatives and Reform, as most Conservative and Reform voters oppose any deal with Labour over half of current Tory voters would back a deal with the LDs again, 55%, indeed identical to the number who would deal with Reform. More Reform voters 66% than Tory voters back a Tory and Reform deal and 40% of LD voters are still willing to deal with the Tories but just 5% of LDs with Reform
Some of them feel their birth names are not appropriate (e.g. Mercurius).
Others wish to honour a predecessor or benefactor (several Benedicts).
Others take it to make a point (John usually refers to evangelism).
Still others because, well, maybe they don't like their name.
The first to do so of course was the first Pope - real name Simon, took the name Peter ('rock') at the bidding of Jesus.
He is a shade more conservative than Francis was on social issues but still relatively moderate in RC terms
Kemi seems not to think so but I don't know what she's going on.
See also the speculation about King Charles renaming himself George. When was the last time a monarch took up that option?
This is a drug discovered in the 1950s:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thalidomide
... repurposed (after being banned) for treating leprosy, and repurposed again for treating cancer.
The patents for all uses are expired.
And that is the snag with trying to deal with Trump, as, for example, his lawyers have found out. He regards honouring deals as something that other people do.
Spencer Hakimian
@SpencerHakimian
Call me naive if you want.
But I think there’s an imminent deescalation with China coming.
1. We are just weeks away from a full collapse of our economy without Chinese inventory. If ships start leaving China this weekend, they’ll get to the U.S. just in time to avoid that disaster.
https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/1920563405674721294
I don’t hold much love for Starmer, but fair play, it looks like he’s got a decent-ish result out of this at the moment, and let’s hope it bears out that way.
Kemi should probably welcome it, say the government should try and continue negotiations to keep bettering the position, but otherwise I think she should keep out of it.
1) They have absolutely no government, opposition or parliamentary experience in which to draw on. None. And governing effectively is a fuck-tonne more work and requires different skills to campaigning against incumbents. Labour has found this to some degree, but Reform would be starting from a much worse position.
2) Rising fast - and then failing in government - could see an equally precipitous fall from grace. Whereas if there has been 5 years of Tory irrelevance as fourth party first (while Reform is opposition), it will be harder for the Tories to rebound quickly.
I don't deny Reform are well placed and could make this jump to government from a handful of seats. But it does no guarantee their longevity. The UK is facing various structural headwinds and governing is hard. It would not surprise me if their failure was pretty dramatic in nature.
Social and political issues
Prevost does not support the ordination of women to the diaconate: it "doesn't necessarily solve a problem", and "it might make a new problem".[48]
As a bishop[when?] Prevost opposed the inclusion of curriculum regarding "teachings on gender in schools" in Peru, stating that the "promotion of gender ideology is confusing, because it seeks to create genders that don't exist".[49]
An acquaintance of Pope Leo XIV, Jesus Leon Angeles, noted that he cares for Venezuelan refugees in Peru.[50]
After Pope Francis's 2023 declaration Fiducia supplicans allowed Catholic priests to bless couples who are not married according to church teaching (including same-sex couples), he said the declaration would be ineffective in parts of Africa where homosexuality is still illegal: "our cultural situation is such that the application of this document is just not going to work".[51] Earlier, in 2012, Prevost observed that popular culture fostered "sympathy for beliefs and practices that are at odds with the Gospel", citing the "homosexual lifestyle" and "alternative families comprised of same-sex partners and their adopted children".[49]
According to public voter records, Prevost has twice voted in Republican primaries.[52]
On Twitter, Prevost has criticized abortion, contraceptives, and the death penalty;[53] while also expressing sympathy for George Floyd and criticizing U.S. President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance's views on immigration.[54]'
So the new Pope is anti trans and anti women priests and bishops and anti abortion and even anti blessing same sex couples as Francis supported anti same sex couples adopting, so on social issues takes a conservative Catholic stance. On female ordination and PLF for same sex couples the C of E will still take a more liberal line than the RC church. Indeed he was once a registered Republican and on those issues Trump and Vance would find him at one with then.
On issues like climate change and immigration however like Francis he is closer to the liberal left and firmly critical of Trump's deportations
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pope_Leo_XIV#Views
However, I'm sure he's nice irl.
I accept that SKS isn't Keats with words, nor do I want him rewriting Wordsworth's Prelude. But it's workmanlike and does the job.
Poundland will be pissed, for starters.
Place your bets, gennul'men
Anyway, either my uncle, the Anson, secret radar stuff, or Irish mountains caused the crash.
So barely more than half of Tories on a forced choice would switch to Reform, so hard to see the Tories collapsing to Reform to the extent you have them doing and more likely Labour and Reform would be neck and neck
John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
·
1h
80+ is close to the 83 needed to wipe out the government’s working majority of 165