At that level of Reform share, tactical voting doesn't help non-Reform parties much: that points to a clear Reform majority, and it's entirely possible that the LibDems end up the official opposition.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
Normally tipping point is just hyperbole but I wonder if one has now actually been reached
Yes, if we're ever going to get a tipping point, this must be it
THAT SAID, we need a few more polls with similar numbers to this, not from Find Out Now. That said again, Find Out Now were arguably closer to the local elex results than other pollsters, so maybe Find Out Now are actually superior at polling this new situation with this new party
Basically, anyone supporting the Tories who wants a change from Labour now needs to shift to Reform. I just can't see the Tories coming back from 16%, unless they get Boris in and he does a miracle, or somehow Jenrick.....
Nah
Reform need to drop the Putinism and Hunt-up their economics before I'd consider them
That's the thing, isn't it?
The Conservatives shat the bed on immigration, but Reform (and Farage in particular) are in the pockets of Putin and Trump - both of which are clear and present dangers to the world.
At that level of Reform share, tactical voting doesn't help non-Reform parties much: that points to a clear Reform majority, and it's entirely possible that the LibDems end up the official opposition.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
Normally tipping point is just hyperbole but I wonder if one has now actually been reached
Yes, if we're ever going to get a tipping point, this must be it
THAT SAID, we need a few more polls with similar numbers to this, not from Find Out Now. That said again, Find Out Now were arguably closer to the local elex results than other pollsters, so maybe Find Out Now are actually superior at polling this new situation with this new party
Basically, anyone supporting the Tories who wants a change from Labour now needs to shift to Reform. I just can't see the Tories coming back from 16%, unless they get Boris in and he does a miracle, or somehow Jenrick.....
Nah
Reform need to drop the Putinism and Hunt-up their economics before I'd consider them
They aren't seeking your vote and do not need it, as we see
I reckon Reform's ceiling is around 35-37%, but with the rest of the field hopelessly divided, that will be enough for them to win a large majority
If we had PR, but we don't. Reform can win an overall majority.
Now that the electorate have shown themselves to be adept at voting tactically I'd say Farage's chances of getting a majority are zero. There's 60% of Remainers who wouldn't touch him with a bargepole.
Looking forward to discussing the results with you on the day after the next general election.
At that level of Reform share, tactical voting doesn't help non-Reform parties much: that points to a clear Reform majority, and it's entirely possible that the LibDems end up the official opposition.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
Normally tipping point is just hyperbole but I wonder if one has now actually been reached
Yes, if we're ever going to get a tipping point, this must be it
THAT SAID, we need a few more polls with similar numbers to this, not from Find Out Now. That said again, Find Out Now were arguably closer to the local elex results than other pollsters, so maybe Find Out Now are actually superior at polling this new situation with this new party
Basically, anyone supporting the Tories who wants a change from Labour now needs to shift to Reform. I just can't see the Tories coming back from 16%, unless they get Boris in and he does a miracle, or somehow Jenrick.....
Nah
Reform need to drop the Putinism and Hunt-up their economics before I'd consider them
They aren't seeking your vote and do not need it, as we see
I reckon Reform's ceiling is around 35-37%, but with the rest of the field hopelessly divided, that will be enough for them to win a large majority
Of course this is still years away blah blah
Actually, I suspect it will be enough to win them a relatively small majority, because I think the LLG vote will be reasonably efficient.
At that level of Reform share, tactical voting doesn't help non-Reform parties much: that points to a clear Reform majority, and it's entirely possible that the LibDems end up the official opposition.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
Normally tipping point is just hyperbole but I wonder if one has now actually been reached
Yes, if we're ever going to get a tipping point, this must be it
THAT SAID, we need a few more polls with similar numbers to this, not from Find Out Now. That said again, Find Out Now were arguably closer to the local elex results than other pollsters, so maybe Find Out Now are actually superior at polling this new situation with this new party
Basically, anyone supporting the Tories who wants a change from Labour now needs to shift to Reform. I just can't see the Tories coming back from 16%, unless they get Boris in and he does a miracle, or somehow Jenrick.....
Nah
Reform need to drop the Putinism and Hunt-up their economics before I'd consider them
That's the thing, isn't it?
The Conservatives shat the bed on immigration, but Reform (and Farage in particular) are in the pockets of Putin and Trump - both of which are clear and present dangers to the world.
Farage is not "in the pocket" of Putin or Trump
Last time I saw Nige being interviewed about Trump (a couple of days ago) he implied Trump had gone off his rocker when it came to "Canada as the 51st state"
If you want to see someone licking the Trump butt (sorry for the image) it is Sir Sheer Wanker
At that level of Reform share, tactical voting doesn't help non-Reform parties much: that points to a clear Reform majority, and it's entirely possible that the LibDems end up the official opposition.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
Normally tipping point is just hyperbole but I wonder if one has now actually been reached
Yes, if we're ever going to get a tipping point, this must be it
THAT SAID, we need a few more polls with similar numbers to this, not from Find Out Now. That said again, Find Out Now were arguably closer to the local elex results than other pollsters, so maybe Find Out Now are actually superior at polling this new situation with this new party
Basically, anyone supporting the Tories who wants a change from Labour now needs to shift to Reform. I just can't see the Tories coming back from 16%, unless they get Boris in and he does a miracle, or somehow Jenrick.....
Nah
Reform need to drop the Putinism and Hunt-up their economics before I'd consider them
They aren't seeking your vote and do not need it, as we see
I reckon Reform's ceiling is around 35-37%, but with the rest of the field hopelessly divided, that will be enough for them to win a large majority
Of course this is still years away blah blah
Speaking as a fellow right-wing ex-Tory, I doubt that Reform are seeking my vote, but I 100% think they are seeking Casino's . . . and to win an election, they'd need it.
At that level of Reform share, tactical voting doesn't help non-Reform parties much: that points to a clear Reform majority, and it's entirely possible that the LibDems end up the official opposition.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
Normally tipping point is just hyperbole but I wonder if one has now actually been reached
Yes, if we're ever going to get a tipping point, this must be it
THAT SAID, we need a few more polls with similar numbers to this, not from Find Out Now. That said again, Find Out Now were arguably closer to the local elex results than other pollsters, so maybe Find Out Now are actually superior at polling this new situation with this new party
Basically, anyone supporting the Tories who wants a change from Labour now needs to shift to Reform. I just can't see the Tories coming back from 16%, unless they get Boris in and he does a miracle, or somehow Jenrick.....
Nah
Reform need to drop the Putinism and Hunt-up their economics before I'd consider them
They aren't seeking your vote and do not need it, as we see
I reckon Reform's ceiling is around 35-37%, but with the rest of the field hopelessly divided, that will be enough for them to win a large majority
Of course this is still years away blah blah
Speaking as a fellow right-wing ex-Tory, I doubt that Reform are seeking my vote, but I 100% think they are seeking Casino's . . . and to win an election, they'd need it.
Casino is an affluent centre right dude in the SE of England. Reform would like his vote, but they really do not need it, there are enough votes for them elsewhere
If we had PR, but we don't. Reform can win an overall majority.
Now that the electorate have shown themselves to be adept at voting tactically I'd say Farage's chances of getting a majority are zero. There's 60% of Remainers who wouldn't touch him with a bargepole.
These are difficult days for you especially as Starmer has found a new best friend in Trump now known as Keir and Donald to each other even in public
While I'm not sure it's simply Remainers v Farage, I do think the tactical voting is against Reform. We had a general election just last year, where Labour doubled their seats, and the Lib Dems went from 11 at the previous election, to 74.
Yet Labour's vote went up less than 2%, and the Lib Dems less than 1%.
Clearly there are tipping points involved, but that's hugely down to tactical voting between Lab/LD/Green. The polling at the top of this page suggests that's still holding up pretty well, and there's no major signs that kind of tactical coalition exists for Reform.
At that level of Reform share, tactical voting doesn't help non-Reform parties much: that points to a clear Reform majority, and it's entirely possible that the LibDems end up the official opposition.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
Normally tipping point is just hyperbole but I wonder if one has now actually been reached
Yes, if we're ever going to get a tipping point, this must be it
THAT SAID, we need a few more polls with similar numbers to this, not from Find Out Now. That said again, Find Out Now were arguably closer to the local elex results than other pollsters, so maybe Find Out Now are actually superior at polling this new situation with this new party
Basically, anyone supporting the Tories who wants a change from Labour now needs to shift to Reform. I just can't see the Tories coming back from 16%, unless they get Boris in and he does a miracle, or somehow Jenrick.....
Nah
Reform need to drop the Putinism and Hunt-up their economics before I'd consider them
They aren't seeking your vote and do not need it, as we see
I reckon Reform's ceiling is around 35-37%, but with the rest of the field hopelessly divided, that will be enough for them to win a large majority
Of course this is still years away blah blah
Speaking as a fellow right-wing ex-Tory, I doubt that Reform are seeking my vote, but I 100% think they are seeking Casino's . . . and to win an election, they'd need it.
Casino is an affluent centre right dude in the SE of England. Reform would like his vote, but they really do not need it, there are enough votes for them elsewhere
If they're not getting his, they're likely not getting millions of others they could get and will lose swathes of the SE of England because of that to the Tories or Lib Dems.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Casino is I believe skeptical about immigration and anti-woke, he's just not racist like many early Reformers. His should be an easy vote to aim for if they're to be a serious party seeking office and not just a racist rabble.
At that level of Reform share, tactical voting doesn't help non-Reform parties much: that points to a clear Reform majority, and it's entirely possible that the LibDems end up the official opposition.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
Normally tipping point is just hyperbole but I wonder if one has now actually been reached
Yes, if we're ever going to get a tipping point, this must be it
THAT SAID, we need a few more polls with similar numbers to this, not from Find Out Now. That said again, Find Out Now were arguably closer to the local elex results than other pollsters, so maybe Find Out Now are actually superior at polling this new situation with this new party
Basically, anyone supporting the Tories who wants a change from Labour now needs to shift to Reform. I just can't see the Tories coming back from 16%, unless they get Boris in and he does a miracle, or somehow Jenrick.....
Nah
Reform need to drop the Putinism and Hunt-up their economics before I'd consider them
They aren't seeking your vote and do not need it, as we see
I reckon Reform's ceiling is around 35-37%, but with the rest of the field hopelessly divided, that will be enough for them to win a large majority
Of course this is still years away blah blah
Speaking as a fellow right-wing ex-Tory, I doubt that Reform are seeking my vote, but I 100% think they are seeking Casino's . . . and to win an election, they'd need it.
Casino is an affluent centre right dude in the SE of England. Reform would like his vote, but they really do not need it, there are enough votes for them elsewhere
If they're not getting his, they're likely not getting millions of others they could get and will lose swathes of the SE of England because of that to the Tories or Lib Dems.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Casino is I believe skeptical about immigration and anti-woke, he's just not racist like many early Reformers. His should be an easy vote to aim for if they're to be a serious party seeking office and not just a racist rabble.
When they have a polling lead of 13%, we're beyond the point where anyone can dismiss them as a racist rabble, regardless of whether they win Casino's vote or not.
At that level of Reform share, tactical voting doesn't help non-Reform parties much: that points to a clear Reform majority, and it's entirely possible that the LibDems end up the official opposition.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
Normally tipping point is just hyperbole but I wonder if one has now actually been reached
Yes, if we're ever going to get a tipping point, this must be it
THAT SAID, we need a few more polls with similar numbers to this, not from Find Out Now. That said again, Find Out Now were arguably closer to the local elex results than other pollsters, so maybe Find Out Now are actually superior at polling this new situation with this new party
Basically, anyone supporting the Tories who wants a change from Labour now needs to shift to Reform. I just can't see the Tories coming back from 16%, unless they get Boris in and he does a miracle, or somehow Jenrick.....
Nah
Reform need to drop the Putinism and Hunt-up their economics before I'd consider them
They aren't seeking your vote and do not need it, as we see
I reckon Reform's ceiling is around 35-37%, but with the rest of the field hopelessly divided, that will be enough for them to win a large majority
Of course this is still years away blah blah
Speaking as a fellow right-wing ex-Tory, I doubt that Reform are seeking my vote, but I 100% think they are seeking Casino's . . . and to win an election, they'd need it.
Casino is an affluent centre right dude in the SE of England. Reform would like his vote, but they really do not need it, there are enough votes for them elsewhere
If they're not getting his, they're likely not getting millions of others they could get and will lose swathes of the SE of England because of that to the Tories or Lib Dems.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Casino is I believe skeptical about immigration and anti-woke, he's just not racist like many early Reformers. His should be an easy vote to aim for if they're to be a serious party seeking office and not just a racist rabble.
But the polls show that Reform don't need his vote. Do you not understand this?
Yes ideally they'd like it, and who knows - Casino may switch - but they DO NOT NEED IT TO WIN QUITE EASILY
At that level of Reform share, tactical voting doesn't help non-Reform parties much: that points to a clear Reform majority, and it's entirely possible that the LibDems end up the official opposition.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
Normally tipping point is just hyperbole but I wonder if one has now actually been reached
Yes, if we're ever going to get a tipping point, this must be it
THAT SAID, we need a few more polls with similar numbers to this, not from Find Out Now. That said again, Find Out Now were arguably closer to the local elex results than other pollsters, so maybe Find Out Now are actually superior at polling this new situation with this new party
Basically, anyone supporting the Tories who wants a change from Labour now needs to shift to Reform. I just can't see the Tories coming back from 16%, unless they get Boris in and he does a miracle, or somehow Jenrick.....
Nah
Reform need to drop the Putinism and Hunt-up their economics before I'd consider them
That's the thing, isn't it?
The Conservatives shat the bed on immigration, but Reform (and Farage in particular) are in the pockets of Putin and Trump - both of which are clear and present dangers to the world.
Farage is not "in the pocket" of Putin or Trump
Last time I saw Nige being interviewed about Trump (a couple of days ago) he implied Trump had gone off his rocker when it came to "Canada as the 51st state"
If you want to see someone licking the Trump butt (sorry for the image) it is Sir Sheer Wanker
FWIW, I agree that this deal is poison for Starmer. His voters *hate* Trump, and to be seen to get into bed with him doesn't win him back Reform votes, while leaking votes to the LibDems and Labour.
At that level of Reform share, tactical voting doesn't help non-Reform parties much: that points to a clear Reform majority, and it's entirely possible that the LibDems end up the official opposition.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
Normally tipping point is just hyperbole but I wonder if one has now actually been reached
Yes, if we're ever going to get a tipping point, this must be it
THAT SAID, we need a few more polls with similar numbers to this, not from Find Out Now. That said again, Find Out Now were arguably closer to the local elex results than other pollsters, so maybe Find Out Now are actually superior at polling this new situation with this new party
Basically, anyone supporting the Tories who wants a change from Labour now needs to shift to Reform. I just can't see the Tories coming back from 16%, unless they get Boris in and he does a miracle, or somehow Jenrick.....
Nah
Reform need to drop the Putinism and Hunt-up their economics before I'd consider them
They aren't seeking your vote and do not need it, as we see
I reckon Reform's ceiling is around 35-37%, but with the rest of the field hopelessly divided, that will be enough for them to win a large majority
Of course this is still years away blah blah
Speaking as a fellow right-wing ex-Tory, I doubt that Reform are seeking my vote, but I 100% think they are seeking Casino's . . . and to win an election, they'd need it.
Casino is an affluent centre right dude in the SE of England. Reform would like his vote, but they really do not need it, there are enough votes for them elsewhere
If they're not getting his, they're likely not getting millions of others they could get and will lose swathes of the SE of England because of that to the Tories or Lib Dems.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Casino is I believe skeptical about immigration and anti-woke, he's just not racist like many early Reformers. His should be an easy vote to aim for if they're to be a serious party seeking office and not just a racist rabble.
Casino is also informed about the world, which is why he's not voting Reform.
Looking forward to the next YouGov / Survation / Opinium poll to see if it confirms this trend.
There was a YouGov yesterday with a 7% Reform lead. That's 4pts up, whereas this one has their lead 5 pts up, so the trend looks real (More in Common was a day or two earlier and also had Reform lead up 4pts).
At that level of Reform share, tactical voting doesn't help non-Reform parties much: that points to a clear Reform majority, and it's entirely possible that the LibDems end up the official opposition.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
Normally tipping point is just hyperbole but I wonder if one has now actually been reached
Yes, if we're ever going to get a tipping point, this must be it
THAT SAID, we need a few more polls with similar numbers to this, not from Find Out Now. That said again, Find Out Now were arguably closer to the local elex results than other pollsters, so maybe Find Out Now are actually superior at polling this new situation with this new party
Basically, anyone supporting the Tories who wants a change from Labour now needs to shift to Reform. I just can't see the Tories coming back from 16%, unless they get Boris in and he does a miracle, or somehow Jenrick.....
Nah
Reform need to drop the Putinism and Hunt-up their economics before I'd consider them
They aren't seeking your vote and do not need it, as we see
I reckon Reform's ceiling is around 35-37%, but with the rest of the field hopelessly divided, that will be enough for them to win a large majority
Of course this is still years away blah blah
Speaking as a fellow right-wing ex-Tory, I doubt that Reform are seeking my vote, but I 100% think they are seeking Casino's . . . and to win an election, they'd need it.
Casino is an affluent centre right dude in the SE of England. Reform would like his vote, but they really do not need it, there are enough votes for them elsewhere
If they're not getting his, they're likely not getting millions of others they could get and will lose swathes of the SE of England because of that to the Tories or Lib Dems.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Casino is I believe skeptical about immigration and anti-woke, he's just not racist like many early Reformers. His should be an easy vote to aim for if they're to be a serious party seeking office and not just a racist rabble.
When they have a polling lead of 13%, we're beyond the point where anyone can dismiss them as a racist rabble, regardless of whether they win Casino's vote or not.
Opinion polls are a joke, and a racist rabble with an opinion poll lead is a racist rabble with an opinion poll lead - their being a racist rabble isn't wiped out by a lead in the polls.
This time six years ago the polls were alternating between giving Nigel Farage and Jeremy Corbyn's parties the lead in the polls . . . and we all know what happened next.
The next election isn't decided until the votes are cast.
At that level of Reform share, tactical voting doesn't help non-Reform parties much: that points to a clear Reform majority, and it's entirely possible that the LibDems end up the official opposition.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
Normally tipping point is just hyperbole but I wonder if one has now actually been reached
Yes, if we're ever going to get a tipping point, this must be it
THAT SAID, we need a few more polls with similar numbers to this, not from Find Out Now. That said again, Find Out Now were arguably closer to the local elex results than other pollsters, so maybe Find Out Now are actually superior at polling this new situation with this new party
Basically, anyone supporting the Tories who wants a change from Labour now needs to shift to Reform. I just can't see the Tories coming back from 16%, unless they get Boris in and he does a miracle, or somehow Jenrick.....
Nah
Reform need to drop the Putinism and Hunt-up their economics before I'd consider them
That's the thing, isn't it?
The Conservatives shat the bed on immigration, but Reform (and Farage in particular) are in the pockets of Putin and Trump - both of which are clear and present dangers to the world.
Farage is not "in the pocket" of Putin or Trump
Last time I saw Nige being interviewed about Trump (a couple of days ago) he implied Trump had gone off his rocker when it came to "Canada as the 51st state"
If you want to see someone licking the Trump butt (sorry for the image) it is Sir Sheer Wanker
FWIW, I agree that this deal is poison for Starmer. His voters *hate* Trump, and to be seen to get into bed with him doesn't win him back Reform votes, while leaking votes to the LibDems and Labour.
I agree and the Lib Dems may improve on their vote share
At that level of Reform share, tactical voting doesn't help non-Reform parties much: that points to a clear Reform majority, and it's entirely possible that the LibDems end up the official opposition.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
Normally tipping point is just hyperbole but I wonder if one has now actually been reached
Yes, if we're ever going to get a tipping point, this must be it
THAT SAID, we need a few more polls with similar numbers to this, not from Find Out Now. That said again, Find Out Now were arguably closer to the local elex results than other pollsters, so maybe Find Out Now are actually superior at polling this new situation with this new party
Basically, anyone supporting the Tories who wants a change from Labour now needs to shift to Reform. I just can't see the Tories coming back from 16%, unless they get Boris in and he does a miracle, or somehow Jenrick.....
Nah
Reform need to drop the Putinism and Hunt-up their economics before I'd consider them
That's the thing, isn't it?
The Conservatives shat the bed on immigration, but Reform (and Farage in particular) are in the pockets of Putin and Trump - both of which are clear and present dangers to the world.
Farage is not "in the pocket" of Putin or Trump
Last time I saw Nige being interviewed about Trump (a couple of days ago) he implied Trump had gone off his rocker when it came to "Canada as the 51st state"
If you want to see someone licking the Trump butt (sorry for the image) it is Sir Sheer Wanker
FWIW, I agree that this deal is poison for Starmer. His voters *hate* Trump, and to be seen to get into bed with him doesn't win him back Reform votes, while leaking votes to the LibDems and Labour.
I feel slightly sorry for SKS, he is probably doing his best, it's just his best is really quite bad. Similar to Badenoch
On the other hand, SKS is a stiff unlikeable priggish hypocritical twat, whereas Badenoch seems genuinely quite nice if a bit vain and lightweight
It’s remarkable that despite having watched so much political turmoil and changes in political fortunes over the last six years, some of our less astute PB’ers seem so convinced that somehow things are now going to stay broadly the same over the four years until the next election.
Meanwhile my croft is being buzzed by RAF fighter jets on low level manoeuvres. At least we can be reassured that they will enter the coming war well trained…
I don't think its just the centre-left who will vote tactically. An awful lot of centre-right voters have already defected to the LibDems in protest at the Tories. Many more will also make the same journey as the threat of Farage grows larger
At that level of Reform share, tactical voting doesn't help non-Reform parties much: that points to a clear Reform majority, and it's entirely possible that the LibDems end up the official opposition.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
Normally tipping point is just hyperbole but I wonder if one has now actually been reached
Yes, if we're ever going to get a tipping point, this must be it
THAT SAID, we need a few more polls with similar numbers to this, not from Find Out Now. That said again, Find Out Now were arguably closer to the local elex results than other pollsters, so maybe Find Out Now are actually superior at polling this new situation with this new party
Basically, anyone supporting the Tories who wants a change from Labour now needs to shift to Reform. I just can't see the Tories coming back from 16%, unless they get Boris in and he does a miracle, or somehow Jenrick.....
Nah
Reform need to drop the Putinism and Hunt-up their economics before I'd consider them
They aren't seeking your vote and do not need it, as we see
I reckon Reform's ceiling is around 35-37%, but with the rest of the field hopelessly divided, that will be enough for them to win a large majority
Of course this is still years away blah blah
Speaking as a fellow right-wing ex-Tory, I doubt that Reform are seeking my vote, but I 100% think they are seeking Casino's . . . and to win an election, they'd need it.
Casino is an affluent centre right dude in the SE of England. Reform would like his vote, but they really do not need it, there are enough votes for them elsewhere
If they're not getting his, they're likely not getting millions of others they could get and will lose swathes of the SE of England because of that to the Tories or Lib Dems.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Casino is I believe skeptical about immigration and anti-woke, he's just not racist like many early Reformers. His should be an easy vote to aim for if they're to be a serious party seeking office and not just a racist rabble.
When they have a polling lead of 13%, we're beyond the point where anyone can dismiss them as a racist rabble, regardless of whether they win Casino's vote or not.
Opinion polls are a joke, and a racist rabble with an opinion poll lead is a racist rabble with an opinion poll lead - their being a racist rabble isn't wiped out by a lead in the polls.
This time six years ago the polls were alternating between giving Nigel Farage and Jeremy Corbyn's parties the lead in the polls . . . and we all know what happened next.
The next election isn't decided until the votes are cast.
Such a racist rabble they have an Asian chap as Chairman?
Anyone got turnout data for last Thursday as a whole?
I wonder if part of the story was Reform voters wading through rivers of blood to get to the polling station, whilst everyone else decided to take the day off.
That would be consistent with the FON (very strong enthusiasm filter) model.
At that level of Reform share, tactical voting doesn't help non-Reform parties much: that points to a clear Reform majority, and it's entirely possible that the LibDems end up the official opposition.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
Normally tipping point is just hyperbole but I wonder if one has now actually been reached
Yes, if we're ever going to get a tipping point, this must be it
THAT SAID, we need a few more polls with similar numbers to this, not from Find Out Now. That said again, Find Out Now were arguably closer to the local elex results than other pollsters, so maybe Find Out Now are actually superior at polling this new situation with this new party
Basically, anyone supporting the Tories who wants a change from Labour now needs to shift to Reform. I just can't see the Tories coming back from 16%, unless they get Boris in and he does a miracle, or somehow Jenrick.....
Nah
Reform need to drop the Putinism and Hunt-up their economics before I'd consider them
They aren't seeking your vote and do not need it, as we see
I reckon Reform's ceiling is around 35-37%, but with the rest of the field hopelessly divided, that will be enough for them to win a large majority
Of course this is still years away blah blah
Speaking as a fellow right-wing ex-Tory, I doubt that Reform are seeking my vote, but I 100% think they are seeking Casino's . . . and to win an election, they'd need it.
Casino is an affluent centre right dude in the SE of England. Reform would like his vote, but they really do not need it, there are enough votes for them elsewhere
If they're not getting his, they're likely not getting millions of others they could get and will lose swathes of the SE of England because of that to the Tories or Lib Dems.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Casino is I believe skeptical about immigration and anti-woke, he's just not racist like many early Reformers. His should be an easy vote to aim for if they're to be a serious party seeking office and not just a racist rabble.
But the polls show that Reform don't need his vote. Do you not understand this?
Yes ideally they'd like it, and who knows - Casino may switch - but they DO NOT NEED IT TO WIN QUITE EASILY
Just as Farage/Corbyn didn't need votes six years ago today due to their poll leads?
Just as EICIPM didn't need votes?
Is this your first day following Political Betting, as polls are just snapshots and not the future writ large.
Until the votes are cast parties absolutely do need votes - and even more absolutely do want them too.
North Carolina - Schumer is "increasingly confident" that former Governor Roy Cooper will agree to enter the race. He would be a very formidable candidate against Thom Tillis. Cooper will make a decision by June.
Texas - An internal Republican poll shows Attorney General Ken Paxton has a 17 point lead over the incumbent John Cornyn for the Republican primary. The same poll also shows Paxton then going on to lose to likely Dem candidate Colin Allred by 52%-37%.
It’s remarkable that despite having watched so much political turmoil and changes in political fortunes over the last six years, some of our less astute PB’ers seem so convinced that somehow things are now going to stay broadly the same over the four years until the next election.
It reminds me of the old parable:
A sultan sentences one of his advisors to death for some offense. Facing execution, the condemned man begs the sultan for a reprieve. He makes an outrageous promise:
“Spare me for one year, and I will teach your dog to sing.”
The sultan, amused by the idea, agrees—thinking it impossible but entertaining.
Later, a fellow prisoner asks the advisor if he’s gone mad:
“You can’t teach a dog to sing!”
The advisor replies:
“True. But in a year, many things can happen. The sultan might die. He might change his mind. I might die. The dog might die. Or—who knows?—the dog might learn to sing.”
At that level of Reform share, tactical voting doesn't help non-Reform parties much: that points to a clear Reform majority, and it's entirely possible that the LibDems end up the official opposition.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
Normally tipping point is just hyperbole but I wonder if one has now actually been reached
Yes, if we're ever going to get a tipping point, this must be it
THAT SAID, we need a few more polls with similar numbers to this, not from Find Out Now. That said again, Find Out Now were arguably closer to the local elex results than other pollsters, so maybe Find Out Now are actually superior at polling this new situation with this new party
Basically, anyone supporting the Tories who wants a change from Labour now needs to shift to Reform. I just can't see the Tories coming back from 16%, unless they get Boris in and he does a miracle, or somehow Jenrick.....
Nah
Reform need to drop the Putinism and Hunt-up their economics before I'd consider them
They aren't seeking your vote and do not need it, as we see
I reckon Reform's ceiling is around 35-37%, but with the rest of the field hopelessly divided, that will be enough for them to win a large majority
Of course this is still years away blah blah
Speaking as a fellow right-wing ex-Tory, I doubt that Reform are seeking my vote, but I 100% think they are seeking Casino's . . . and to win an election, they'd need it.
Casino is an affluent centre right dude in the SE of England. Reform would like his vote, but they really do not need it, there are enough votes for them elsewhere
Yeah I think this is right. Casino is too intelligent for Reform. They will make their pitch at a lower level. Which of course seems to be working.
At that level of Reform share, tactical voting doesn't help non-Reform parties much: that points to a clear Reform majority, and it's entirely possible that the LibDems end up the official opposition.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
Normally tipping point is just hyperbole but I wonder if one has now actually been reached
Yes, if we're ever going to get a tipping point, this must be it
THAT SAID, we need a few more polls with similar numbers to this, not from Find Out Now. That said again, Find Out Now were arguably closer to the local elex results than other pollsters, so maybe Find Out Now are actually superior at polling this new situation with this new party
Basically, anyone supporting the Tories who wants a change from Labour now needs to shift to Reform. I just can't see the Tories coming back from 16%, unless they get Boris in and he does a miracle, or somehow Jenrick.....
Nah
Reform need to drop the Putinism and Hunt-up their economics before I'd consider them
They aren't seeking your vote and do not need it, as we see
I reckon Reform's ceiling is around 35-37%, but with the rest of the field hopelessly divided, that will be enough for them to win a large majority
Of course this is still years away blah blah
Speaking as a fellow right-wing ex-Tory, I doubt that Reform are seeking my vote, but I 100% think they are seeking Casino's . . . and to win an election, they'd need it.
Casino is an affluent centre right dude in the SE of England. Reform would like his vote, but they really do not need it, there are enough votes for them elsewhere
If they're not getting his, they're likely not getting millions of others they could get and will lose swathes of the SE of England because of that to the Tories or Lib Dems.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Casino is I believe skeptical about immigration and anti-woke, he's just not racist like many early Reformers. His should be an easy vote to aim for if they're to be a serious party seeking office and not just a racist rabble.
When they have a polling lead of 13%, we're beyond the point where anyone can dismiss them as a racist rabble, regardless of whether they win Casino's vote or not.
Opinion polls are a joke, and a racist rabble with an opinion poll lead is a racist rabble with an opinion poll lead - their being a racist rabble isn't wiped out by a lead in the polls.
This time six years ago the polls were alternating between giving Nigel Farage and Jeremy Corbyn's parties the lead in the polls . . . and we all know what happened next.
The next election isn't decided until the votes are cast.
"Opinion polls are a joke"
You what? Are you sure you want to be saying this, on a site that forensically studies and discusses opinion polls, and disapproves of those dissing official pollsters?
At that level of Reform share, tactical voting doesn't help non-Reform parties much: that points to a clear Reform majority, and it's entirely possible that the LibDems end up the official opposition.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
Normally tipping point is just hyperbole but I wonder if one has now actually been reached
Yes, if we're ever going to get a tipping point, this must be it
THAT SAID, we need a few more polls with similar numbers to this, not from Find Out Now. That said again, Find Out Now were arguably closer to the local elex results than other pollsters, so maybe Find Out Now are actually superior at polling this new situation with this new party
Basically, anyone supporting the Tories who wants a change from Labour now needs to shift to Reform. I just can't see the Tories coming back from 16%, unless they get Boris in and he does a miracle, or somehow Jenrick.....
Nah
Reform need to drop the Putinism and Hunt-up their economics before I'd consider them
They aren't seeking your vote and do not need it, as we see
I reckon Reform's ceiling is around 35-37%, but with the rest of the field hopelessly divided, that will be enough for them to win a large majority
Of course this is still years away blah blah
Speaking as a fellow right-wing ex-Tory, I doubt that Reform are seeking my vote, but I 100% think they are seeking Casino's . . . and to win an election, they'd need it.
Casino is an affluent centre right dude in the SE of England. Reform would like his vote, but they really do not need it, there are enough votes for them elsewhere
If they're not getting his, they're likely not getting millions of others they could get and will lose swathes of the SE of England because of that to the Tories or Lib Dems.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Casino is I believe skeptical about immigration and anti-woke, he's just not racist like many early Reformers. His should be an easy vote to aim for if they're to be a serious party seeking office and not just a racist rabble.
When they have a polling lead of 13%, we're beyond the point where anyone can dismiss them as a racist rabble, regardless of whether they win Casino's vote or not.
Opinion polls are a joke, and a racist rabble with an opinion poll lead is a racist rabble with an opinion poll lead - their being a racist rabble isn't wiped out by a lead in the polls.
This time six years ago the polls were alternating between giving Nigel Farage and Jeremy Corbyn's parties the lead in the polls . . . and we all know what happened next.
The next election isn't decided until the votes are cast.
"Opinion polls are a joke"
You what? Are you sure you want to be saying this, on a site that forensically studies and discusses opinion polls, and disapproves of those dissing official pollsters?
Also, HAHAHAH
You're upset. Bless
Yes I want to say that and have consistently said that for nearly two decades, since we still had the last Labour government, to anyone who is stupid enough to think an opinion poll showing what they want to happen means it will happen.
At that level of Reform share, tactical voting doesn't help non-Reform parties much: that points to a clear Reform majority, and it's entirely possible that the LibDems end up the official opposition.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
Normally tipping point is just hyperbole but I wonder if one has now actually been reached
Yes, if we're ever going to get a tipping point, this must be it
THAT SAID, we need a few more polls with similar numbers to this, not from Find Out Now. That said again, Find Out Now were arguably closer to the local elex results than other pollsters, so maybe Find Out Now are actually superior at polling this new situation with this new party
Basically, anyone supporting the Tories who wants a change from Labour now needs to shift to Reform. I just can't see the Tories coming back from 16%, unless they get Boris in and he does a miracle, or somehow Jenrick.....
Nah
Reform need to drop the Putinism and Hunt-up their economics before I'd consider them
They aren't seeking your vote and do not need it, as we see
I reckon Reform's ceiling is around 35-37%, but with the rest of the field hopelessly divided, that will be enough for them to win a large majority
Of course this is still years away blah blah
Speaking as a fellow right-wing ex-Tory, I doubt that Reform are seeking my vote, but I 100% think they are seeking Casino's . . . and to win an election, they'd need it.
Casino is an affluent centre right dude in the SE of England. Reform would like his vote, but they really do not need it, there are enough votes for them elsewhere
If they're not getting his, they're likely not getting millions of others they could get and will lose swathes of the SE of England because of that to the Tories or Lib Dems.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Casino is I believe skeptical about immigration and anti-woke, he's just not racist like many early Reformers. His should be an easy vote to aim for if they're to be a serious party seeking office and not just a racist rabble.
But the polls show that Reform don't need his vote. Do you not understand this?
Yes ideally they'd like it, and who knows - Casino may switch - but they DO NOT NEED IT TO WIN QUITE EASILY
Just as Farage/Corbyn didn't need votes six years ago today due to their poll leads?
Just as EICIPM didn't need votes?
Is this your first day following Political Betting, as polls are just snapshots and not the future writ large.
Until the votes are cast parties absolutely do need votes - and even more absolutely do want them too.
Exciting to hear the Tories attacking the trade deal with Gilead as "we've just been shafted". The response from both industry and union bodies appears to be mostly positive, with key red lines protected.
Compare and contrast with the Tory AuzNZ deal which was so bad that news media there were openly laughing at us for giving so much away for such little in return.
We know what the Kemi mentality is. Unless the Tories did it, we get shafted. Nobody is listening any more Kemi!
At that level of Reform share, tactical voting doesn't help non-Reform parties much: that points to a clear Reform majority, and it's entirely possible that the LibDems end up the official opposition.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
Normally tipping point is just hyperbole but I wonder if one has now actually been reached
Yes, if we're ever going to get a tipping point, this must be it
THAT SAID, we need a few more polls with similar numbers to this, not from Find Out Now. That said again, Find Out Now were arguably closer to the local elex results than other pollsters, so maybe Find Out Now are actually superior at polling this new situation with this new party
Basically, anyone supporting the Tories who wants a change from Labour now needs to shift to Reform. I just can't see the Tories coming back from 16%, unless they get Boris in and he does a miracle, or somehow Jenrick.....
Nah
Reform need to drop the Putinism and Hunt-up their economics before I'd consider them
That's the thing, isn't it?
The Conservatives shat the bed on immigration, but Reform (and Farage in particular) are in the pockets of Putin and Trump - both of which are clear and present dangers to the world.
Farage is not "in the pocket" of Putin or Trump
Last time I saw Nige being interviewed about Trump (a couple of days ago) he implied Trump had gone off his rocker when it came to "Canada as the 51st state"
If you want to see someone licking the Trump butt (sorry for the image) it is Sir Sheer Wanker
At that level of Reform share, tactical voting doesn't help non-Reform parties much: that points to a clear Reform majority, and it's entirely possible that the LibDems end up the official opposition.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
Normally tipping point is just hyperbole but I wonder if one has now actually been reached
Yes, if we're ever going to get a tipping point, this must be it
THAT SAID, we need a few more polls with similar numbers to this, not from Find Out Now. That said again, Find Out Now were arguably closer to the local elex results than other pollsters, so maybe Find Out Now are actually superior at polling this new situation with this new party
Basically, anyone supporting the Tories who wants a change from Labour now needs to shift to Reform. I just can't see the Tories coming back from 16%, unless they get Boris in and he does a miracle, or somehow Jenrick.....
Nah
Reform need to drop the Putinism and Hunt-up their economics before I'd consider them
They aren't seeking your vote and do not need it, as we see
I reckon Reform's ceiling is around 35-37%, but with the rest of the field hopelessly divided, that will be enough for them to win a large majority
Of course this is still years away blah blah
Speaking as a fellow right-wing ex-Tory, I doubt that Reform are seeking my vote, but I 100% think they are seeking Casino's . . . and to win an election, they'd need it.
Casino is an affluent centre right dude in the SE of England. Reform would like his vote, but they really do not need it, there are enough votes for them elsewhere
If they're not getting his, they're likely not getting millions of others they could get and will lose swathes of the SE of England because of that to the Tories or Lib Dems.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Casino is I believe skeptical about immigration and anti-woke, he's just not racist like many early Reformers. His should be an easy vote to aim for if they're to be a serious party seeking office and not just a racist rabble.
When they have a polling lead of 13%, we're beyond the point where anyone can dismiss them as a racist rabble, regardless of whether they win Casino's vote or not.
Donald Trump got 49.8% of the vote. His lot are definitely a rabble and are pretty racist.
At that level of Reform share, tactical voting doesn't help non-Reform parties much: that points to a clear Reform majority, and it's entirely possible that the LibDems end up the official opposition.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
Normally tipping point is just hyperbole but I wonder if one has now actually been reached
Yes, if we're ever going to get a tipping point, this must be it
THAT SAID, we need a few more polls with similar numbers to this, not from Find Out Now. That said again, Find Out Now were arguably closer to the local elex results than other pollsters, so maybe Find Out Now are actually superior at polling this new situation with this new party
Basically, anyone supporting the Tories who wants a change from Labour now needs to shift to Reform. I just can't see the Tories coming back from 16%, unless they get Boris in and he does a miracle, or somehow Jenrick.....
Nah
Reform need to drop the Putinism and Hunt-up their economics before I'd consider them
They aren't seeking your vote and do not need it, as we see
I reckon Reform's ceiling is around 35-37%, but with the rest of the field hopelessly divided, that will be enough for them to win a large majority
Of course this is still years away blah blah
Speaking as a fellow right-wing ex-Tory, I doubt that Reform are seeking my vote, but I 100% think they are seeking Casino's . . . and to win an election, they'd need it.
Casino is an affluent centre right dude in the SE of England. Reform would like his vote, but they really do not need it, there are enough votes for them elsewhere
TLDR: they don’t need intelligent votes when the world has so many morons
At that level of Reform share, tactical voting doesn't help non-Reform parties much: that points to a clear Reform majority, and it's entirely possible that the LibDems end up the official opposition.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
Normally tipping point is just hyperbole but I wonder if one has now actually been reached
Yes, if we're ever going to get a tipping point, this must be it
THAT SAID, we need a few more polls with similar numbers to this, not from Find Out Now. That said again, Find Out Now were arguably closer to the local elex results than other pollsters, so maybe Find Out Now are actually superior at polling this new situation with this new party
Basically, anyone supporting the Tories who wants a change from Labour now needs to shift to Reform. I just can't see the Tories coming back from 16%, unless they get Boris in and he does a miracle, or somehow Jenrick.....
Nah
Reform need to drop the Putinism and Hunt-up their economics before I'd consider them
They aren't seeking your vote and do not need it, as we see
I reckon Reform's ceiling is around 35-37%, but with the rest of the field hopelessly divided, that will be enough for them to win a large majority
Of course this is still years away blah blah
Speaking as a fellow right-wing ex-Tory, I doubt that Reform are seeking my vote, but I 100% think they are seeking Casino's . . . and to win an election, they'd need it.
Casino is an affluent centre right dude in the SE of England. Reform would like his vote, but they really do not need it, there are enough votes for them elsewhere
If they're not getting his, they're likely not getting millions of others they could get and will lose swathes of the SE of England because of that to the Tories or Lib Dems.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Casino is I believe skeptical about immigration and anti-woke, he's just not racist like many early Reformers. His should be an easy vote to aim for if they're to be a serious party seeking office and not just a racist rabble.
When they have a polling lead of 13%, we're beyond the point where anyone can dismiss them as a racist rabble, regardless of whether they win Casino's vote or not.
Opinion polls are a joke, and a racist rabble with an opinion poll lead is a racist rabble with an opinion poll lead - their being a racist rabble isn't wiped out by a lead in the polls.
This time six years ago the polls were alternating between giving Nigel Farage and Jeremy Corbyn's parties the lead in the polls . . . and we all know what happened next.
The next election isn't decided until the votes are cast.
"Opinion polls are a joke"
You what? Are you sure you want to be saying this, on a site that forensically studies and discusses opinion polls, and disapproves of those dissing official pollsters?
Also, HAHAHAH
You're upset. Bless
Yes I want to say that and have consistently said that for nearly two decades, since we still had the last Labour government, to anyone who is stupid enough to think an opinion poll showing what they want to happen means it will happen.
I suggest you sit down with a nice cup of camomile tea, and unwet your knickers
At that level of Reform share, tactical voting doesn't help non-Reform parties much: that points to a clear Reform majority, and it's entirely possible that the LibDems end up the official opposition.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
Normally tipping point is just hyperbole but I wonder if one has now actually been reached
Yes, if we're ever going to get a tipping point, this must be it
THAT SAID, we need a few more polls with similar numbers to this, not from Find Out Now. That said again, Find Out Now were arguably closer to the local elex results than other pollsters, so maybe Find Out Now are actually superior at polling this new situation with this new party
Basically, anyone supporting the Tories who wants a change from Labour now needs to shift to Reform. I just can't see the Tories coming back from 16%, unless they get Boris in and he does a miracle, or somehow Jenrick.....
Nah
Reform need to drop the Putinism and Hunt-up their economics before I'd consider them
That's the thing, isn't it?
The Conservatives shat the bed on immigration, but Reform (and Farage in particular) are in the pockets of Putin and Trump - both of which are clear and present dangers to the world.
Farage is not "in the pocket" of Putin or Trump
Last time I saw Nige being interviewed about Trump (a couple of days ago) he implied Trump had gone off his rocker when it came to "Canada as the 51st state"
If you want to see someone licking the Trump butt (sorry for the image) it is Sir Sheer Wanker
At that level of Reform share, tactical voting doesn't help non-Reform parties much: that points to a clear Reform majority, and it's entirely possible that the LibDems end up the official opposition.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
Normally tipping point is just hyperbole but I wonder if one has now actually been reached
Yes, if we're ever going to get a tipping point, this must be it
THAT SAID, we need a few more polls with similar numbers to this, not from Find Out Now. That said again, Find Out Now were arguably closer to the local elex results than other pollsters, so maybe Find Out Now are actually superior at polling this new situation with this new party
Basically, anyone supporting the Tories who wants a change from Labour now needs to shift to Reform. I just can't see the Tories coming back from 16%, unless they get Boris in and he does a miracle, or somehow Jenrick.....
Nah
Reform need to drop the Putinism and Hunt-up their economics before I'd consider them
They aren't seeking your vote and do not need it, as we see
I reckon Reform's ceiling is around 35-37%, but with the rest of the field hopelessly divided, that will be enough for them to win a large majority
Of course this is still years away blah blah
Speaking as a fellow right-wing ex-Tory, I doubt that Reform are seeking my vote, but I 100% think they are seeking Casino's . . . and to win an election, they'd need it.
Casino is an affluent centre right dude in the SE of England. Reform would like his vote, but they really do not need it, there are enough votes for them elsewhere
TLDR: they don’t need intelligent votes when the world has so many morons
Only a moron would give their vote to either Labour or the Tories, after the last 20 years
At that level of Reform share, tactical voting doesn't help non-Reform parties much: that points to a clear Reform majority, and it's entirely possible that the LibDems end up the official opposition.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
Normally tipping point is just hyperbole but I wonder if one has now actually been reached
Yes, if we're ever going to get a tipping point, this must be it
THAT SAID, we need a few more polls with similar numbers to this, not from Find Out Now. That said again, Find Out Now were arguably closer to the local elex results than other pollsters, so maybe Find Out Now are actually superior at polling this new situation with this new party
Basically, anyone supporting the Tories who wants a change from Labour now needs to shift to Reform. I just can't see the Tories coming back from 16%, unless they get Boris in and he does a miracle, or somehow Jenrick.....
Nah
Reform need to drop the Putinism and Hunt-up their economics before I'd consider them
They aren't seeking your vote and do not need it, as we see
I reckon Reform's ceiling is around 35-37%, but with the rest of the field hopelessly divided, that will be enough for them to win a large majority
Of course this is still years away blah blah
Speaking as a fellow right-wing ex-Tory, I doubt that Reform are seeking my vote, but I 100% think they are seeking Casino's . . . and to win an election, they'd need it.
Casino is an affluent centre right dude in the SE of England. Reform would like his vote, but they really do not need it, there are enough votes for them elsewhere
If they're not getting his, they're likely not getting millions of others they could get and will lose swathes of the SE of England because of that to the Tories or Lib Dems.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Casino is I believe skeptical about immigration and anti-woke, he's just not racist like many early Reformers. His should be an easy vote to aim for if they're to be a serious party seeking office and not just a racist rabble.
When they have a polling lead of 13%, we're beyond the point where anyone can dismiss them as a racist rabble, regardless of whether they win Casino's vote or not.
Opinion polls are a joke, and a racist rabble with an opinion poll lead is a racist rabble with an opinion poll lead - their being a racist rabble isn't wiped out by a lead in the polls.
This time six years ago the polls were alternating between giving Nigel Farage and Jeremy Corbyn's parties the lead in the polls . . . and we all know what happened next.
The next election isn't decided until the votes are cast.
"Opinion polls are a joke"
You what? Are you sure you want to be saying this, on a site that forensically studies and discusses opinion polls, and disapproves of those dissing official pollsters?
Also, HAHAHAH
You're upset. Bless
Yes I want to say that and have consistently said that for nearly two decades, since we still had the last Labour government, to anyone who is stupid enough to think an opinion poll showing what they want to happen means it will happen.
I suggest you sit down with a nice cup of camomile tea, and unwet your knickers
You're the one ejaculating yourself over a midterm opinion poll.
The rest of us are intelligent enough to know that polls change.
Clean yourself up and stop embarrassing yourself. Try to have some dignity.
At that level of Reform share, tactical voting doesn't help non-Reform parties much: that points to a clear Reform majority, and it's entirely possible that the LibDems end up the official opposition.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
Normally tipping point is just hyperbole but I wonder if one has now actually been reached
Yes, if we're ever going to get a tipping point, this must be it
THAT SAID, we need a few more polls with similar numbers to this, not from Find Out Now. That said again, Find Out Now were arguably closer to the local elex results than other pollsters, so maybe Find Out Now are actually superior at polling this new situation with this new party
Basically, anyone supporting the Tories who wants a change from Labour now needs to shift to Reform. I just can't see the Tories coming back from 16%, unless they get Boris in and he does a miracle, or somehow Jenrick.....
Nah
Reform need to drop the Putinism and Hunt-up their economics before I'd consider them
They aren't seeking your vote and do not need it, as we see
I reckon Reform's ceiling is around 35-37%, but with the rest of the field hopelessly divided, that will be enough for them to win a large majority
Of course this is still years away blah blah
Speaking as a fellow right-wing ex-Tory, I doubt that Reform are seeking my vote, but I 100% think they are seeking Casino's . . . and to win an election, they'd need it.
Casino is an affluent centre right dude in the SE of England. Reform would like his vote, but they really do not need it, there are enough votes for them elsewhere
If they're not getting his, they're likely not getting millions of others they could get and will lose swathes of the SE of England because of that to the Tories or Lib Dems.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Casino is I believe skeptical about immigration and anti-woke, he's just not racist like many early Reformers. His should be an easy vote to aim for if they're to be a serious party seeking office and not just a racist rabble.
But the polls show that Reform don't need his vote. Do you not understand this?
Yes ideally they'd like it, and who knows - Casino may switch - but they DO NOT NEED IT TO WIN QUITE EASILY
Just as Farage/Corbyn didn't need votes six years ago today due to their poll leads?
Just as EICIPM didn't need votes?
Is this your first day following Political Betting, as polls are just snapshots and not the future writ large.
Until the votes are cast parties absolutely do need votes - and even more absolutely do want them too.
You're just gibbering in a corner now
Poor Barty Bobbins and the Reform surge. He was probably confidently predicting we'd reached peak Reform at 17%.
Exciting to hear the Tories attacking the trade deal with Gilead as "we've just been shafted". The response from both industry and union bodies appears to be mostly positive, with key red lines protected.
Compare and contrast with the Tory AuzNZ deal which was so bad that news media there were openly laughing at us for giving so much away for such little in return.
We know what the Kemi mentality is. Unless the Tories did it, we get shafted. Nobody is listening any more Kemi!
If you read my posts I have been unusually complimentary of Starmer and the deal and contrasted his closeness to Trump with Davey's anti Trump rhetoric
Ironically it won't change my vote but it may actually help the Lib Dems as I expect the left are not at all impressed with Starmer’s relationship with Trump
As far as Kemi is concerned I am ambivalent towards her and the conservative party are not at the races at present
At that level of Reform share, tactical voting doesn't help non-Reform parties much: that points to a clear Reform majority, and it's entirely possible that the LibDems end up the official opposition.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
Normally tipping point is just hyperbole but I wonder if one has now actually been reached
Yes, if we're ever going to get a tipping point, this must be it
THAT SAID, we need a few more polls with similar numbers to this, not from Find Out Now. That said again, Find Out Now were arguably closer to the local elex results than other pollsters, so maybe Find Out Now are actually superior at polling this new situation with this new party
Basically, anyone supporting the Tories who wants a change from Labour now needs to shift to Reform. I just can't see the Tories coming back from 16%, unless they get Boris in and he does a miracle, or somehow Jenrick.....
Nah
Reform need to drop the Putinism and Hunt-up their economics before I'd consider them
They aren't seeking your vote and do not need it, as we see
I reckon Reform's ceiling is around 35-37%, but with the rest of the field hopelessly divided, that will be enough for them to win a large majority
Of course this is still years away blah blah
Speaking as a fellow right-wing ex-Tory, I doubt that Reform are seeking my vote, but I 100% think they are seeking Casino's . . . and to win an election, they'd need it.
Casino is an affluent centre right dude in the SE of England. Reform would like his vote, but they really do not need it, there are enough votes for them elsewhere
If they're not getting his, they're likely not getting millions of others they could get and will lose swathes of the SE of England because of that to the Tories or Lib Dems.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Casino is I believe skeptical about immigration and anti-woke, he's just not racist like many early Reformers. His should be an easy vote to aim for if they're to be a serious party seeking office and not just a racist rabble.
But the polls show that Reform don't need his vote. Do you not understand this?
Yes ideally they'd like it, and who knows - Casino may switch - but they DO NOT NEED IT TO WIN QUITE EASILY
Just as Farage/Corbyn didn't need votes six years ago today due to their poll leads?
Just as EICIPM didn't need votes?
Is this your first day following Political Betting, as polls are just snapshots and not the future writ large.
Until the votes are cast parties absolutely do need votes - and even more absolutely do want them too.
You're just gibbering in a corner now
Poor Barty Bobbins and the Reform surge. He was probably confidently predicting we'd reached peak Reform at 17%.
I never said that, you must be thinking of someone else.
If we had PR, but we don't. Reform can win an overall majority.
They can indeed. And they might do so, on a pretty small (i.e. low 30s) share of the vote.
It's also possible that they are first in terms of national vote share, but end up with their opposition coalescing around a challenger, and get themselves squeezed. (See Scotland, and the way that first the Tories and then the SNP got "ganged up on".)
There are numerous other scenarios too...
With the Labour majority and with the winds of change in the wrong direction 2027/2028 perhaps Starmer might push through PR for General Elections to spike Reform. Who wants a government with sub-30% of the votes.
At that level of Reform share, tactical voting doesn't help non-Reform parties much: that points to a clear Reform majority, and it's entirely possible that the LibDems end up the official opposition.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
Normally tipping point is just hyperbole but I wonder if one has now actually been reached
Yes, if we're ever going to get a tipping point, this must be it
THAT SAID, we need a few more polls with similar numbers to this, not from Find Out Now. That said again, Find Out Now were arguably closer to the local elex results than other pollsters, so maybe Find Out Now are actually superior at polling this new situation with this new party
Basically, anyone supporting the Tories who wants a change from Labour now needs to shift to Reform. I just can't see the Tories coming back from 16%, unless they get Boris in and he does a miracle, or somehow Jenrick.....
Nah
Reform need to drop the Putinism and Hunt-up their economics before I'd consider them
That's the thing, isn't it?
The Conservatives shat the bed on immigration, but Reform (and Farage in particular) are in the pockets of Putin and Trump - both of which are clear and present dangers to the world.
Farage is not "in the pocket" of Putin or Trump
Last time I saw Nige being interviewed about Trump (a couple of days ago) he implied Trump had gone off his rocker when it came to "Canada as the 51st state"
If you want to see someone licking the Trump butt (sorry for the image) it is Sir Sheer Wanker
Exciting to hear the Tories attacking the trade deal with Gilead as "we've just been shafted". The response from both industry and union bodies appears to be mostly positive, with key red lines protected.
Compare and contrast with the Tory AuzNZ deal which was so bad that news media there were openly laughing at us for giving so much away for such little in return.
We know what the Kemi mentality is. Unless the Tories did it, we get shafted. Nobody is listening any more Kemi!
If you read my posts I have been unusually complimentary of Starmer and the deal and contrasted his closeness to Trump with Davey's anti Trump rhetoric
Ironically it won't change my vote but it may actually help the Lib Dems as I expect the left are not at all impressed with Starmer’s relationship with Trump
As far as Kemi is concerned I am ambivalent towards her and the conservative party are not at the races at present
I see the Liberal Democrats as just a sort of holding gully for voters as they ebb away from Labour. I don't see them voting Lib Dem in the event, unless their policies change completely. What's the point in voting for something identical to Labour but with more larking about on logflumes? We will need solutions to growth, law and order, and immigration, and they don't have any.
At that level of Reform share, tactical voting doesn't help non-Reform parties much: that points to a clear Reform majority, and it's entirely possible that the LibDems end up the official opposition.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
Normally tipping point is just hyperbole but I wonder if one has now actually been reached
Yes, if we're ever going to get a tipping point, this must be it
THAT SAID, we need a few more polls with similar numbers to this, not from Find Out Now. That said again, Find Out Now were arguably closer to the local elex results than other pollsters, so maybe Find Out Now are actually superior at polling this new situation with this new party
Basically, anyone supporting the Tories who wants a change from Labour now needs to shift to Reform. I just can't see the Tories coming back from 16%, unless they get Boris in and he does a miracle, or somehow Jenrick.....
Nah
Reform need to drop the Putinism and Hunt-up their economics before I'd consider them
They aren't seeking your vote and do not need it, as we see
I reckon Reform's ceiling is around 35-37%, but with the rest of the field hopelessly divided, that will be enough for them to win a large majority
Of course this is still years away blah blah
Speaking as a fellow right-wing ex-Tory, I doubt that Reform are seeking my vote, but I 100% think they are seeking Casino's . . . and to win an election, they'd need it.
Casino is an affluent centre right dude in the SE of England. Reform would like his vote, but they really do not need it, there are enough votes for them elsewhere
If they're not getting his, they're likely not getting millions of others they could get and will lose swathes of the SE of England because of that to the Tories or Lib Dems.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Casino is I believe skeptical about immigration and anti-woke, he's just not racist like many early Reformers. His should be an easy vote to aim for if they're to be a serious party seeking office and not just a racist rabble.
When they have a polling lead of 13%, we're beyond the point where anyone can dismiss them as a racist rabble, regardless of whether they win Casino's vote or not.
Opinion polls are a joke, and a racist rabble with an opinion poll lead is a racist rabble with an opinion poll lead - their being a racist rabble isn't wiped out by a lead in the polls.
This time six years ago the polls were alternating between giving Nigel Farage and Jeremy Corbyn's parties the lead in the polls . . . and we all know what happened next.
The next election isn't decided until the votes are cast.
Ex-Prime Minister Ed Miliband would disagree.
He had leads of 10pts+ at this stage of the 2010-2015 Parliament, and there was nothing that could stop him on the path to number 10.
At that level of Reform share, tactical voting doesn't help non-Reform parties much: that points to a clear Reform majority, and it's entirely possible that the LibDems end up the official opposition.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
Normally tipping point is just hyperbole but I wonder if one has now actually been reached
Yes, if we're ever going to get a tipping point, this must be it
THAT SAID, we need a few more polls with similar numbers to this, not from Find Out Now. That said again, Find Out Now were arguably closer to the local elex results than other pollsters, so maybe Find Out Now are actually superior at polling this new situation with this new party
Basically, anyone supporting the Tories who wants a change from Labour now needs to shift to Reform. I just can't see the Tories coming back from 16%, unless they get Boris in and he does a miracle, or somehow Jenrick.....
Nah
Reform need to drop the Putinism and Hunt-up their economics before I'd consider them
They aren't seeking your vote and do not need it, as we see
I reckon Reform's ceiling is around 35-37%, but with the rest of the field hopelessly divided, that will be enough for them to win a large majority
Of course this is still years away blah blah
Speaking as a fellow right-wing ex-Tory, I doubt that Reform are seeking my vote, but I 100% think they are seeking Casino's . . . and to win an election, they'd need it.
Casino is an affluent centre right dude in the SE of England. Reform would like his vote, but they really do not need it, there are enough votes for them elsewhere
If they're not getting his, they're likely not getting millions of others they could get and will lose swathes of the SE of England because of that to the Tories or Lib Dems.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Casino is I believe skeptical about immigration and anti-woke, he's just not racist like many early Reformers. His should be an easy vote to aim for if they're to be a serious party seeking office and not just a racist rabble.
When they have a polling lead of 13%, we're beyond the point where anyone can dismiss them as a racist rabble, regardless of whether they win Casino's vote or not.
Opinion polls are a joke, and a racist rabble with an opinion poll lead is a racist rabble with an opinion poll lead - their being a racist rabble isn't wiped out by a lead in the polls.
This time six years ago the polls were alternating between giving Nigel Farage and Jeremy Corbyn's parties the lead in the polls . . . and we all know what happened next.
The next election isn't decided until the votes are cast.
"Opinion polls are a joke"
You what? Are you sure you want to be saying this, on a site that forensically studies and discusses opinion polls, and disapproves of those dissing official pollsters?
Also, HAHAHAH
You're upset. Bless
Yes I want to say that and have consistently said that for nearly two decades, since we still had the last Labour government, to anyone who is stupid enough to think an opinion poll showing what they want to happen means it will happen.
I suggest you sit down with a nice cup of camomile tea, and unwet your knickers
You're the one ejaculating yourself over a midterm opinion poll.
The rest of us are intelligent enough to know that polls change.
Clean yourself up and stop embarrassing yourself. Try to have some dignity.
You're deeply rattled by an opinion poll, and pretending - badly - that you're not. Man up
Comments
The Conservatives shat the bed on immigration, but Reform (and Farage in particular) are in the pockets of Putin and Trump - both of which are clear and present dangers to the world.
I reckon Reform's ceiling is around 35-37%, but with the rest of the field hopelessly divided, that will be enough for them to win a large majority
Of course this is still years away blah blah
https://www.catholicnewsagency.com/news/263905/gamblers-are-betting-millions-of-dollars-on-who-will-be-the-next-pope
or NEW POPE
Last time I saw Nige being interviewed about Trump (a couple of days ago) he implied Trump had gone off his rocker when it came to "Canada as the 51st state"
If you want to see someone licking the Trump butt (sorry for the image) it is Sir Sheer Wanker
On the last thread I gave you a simple six point plan to avoid this looming destruction, and see off Reform
Just six things you need to do. Do them
Yet Labour's vote went up less than 2%, and the Lib Dems less than 1%.
Clearly there are tipping points involved, but that's hugely down to tactical voting between Lab/LD/Green. The polling at the top of this page suggests that's still holding up pretty well, and there's no major signs that kind of tactical coalition exists for Reform.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Casino is I believe skeptical about immigration and anti-woke, he's just not racist like many early Reformers. His should be an easy vote to aim for if they're to be a serious party seeking office and not just a racist rabble.
Odds vary, but in general Labour and Reform are about equal favourites to win the next GE. eg
https://m.skybet.com/politics/general-election/next-uk-general-election/34806014
And this is before the full impact of this new polling surge, Two Tier Taxes, etc
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html
Yes ideally they'd like it, and who knows - Casino may switch - but they DO NOT NEED IT TO WIN QUITE EASILY
This time six years ago the polls were alternating between giving Nigel Farage and Jeremy Corbyn's parties the lead in the polls . . . and we all know what happened next.
The next election isn't decided until the votes are cast.
On the other hand, SKS is a stiff unlikeable priggish hypocritical twat, whereas Badenoch seems genuinely quite nice if a bit vain and lightweight
Meanwhile my croft is being buzzed by RAF fighter jets on low level manoeuvres. At least we can be reassured that they will enter the coming war well trained…
I wonder if part of the story was Reform voters wading through rivers of blood to get to the polling station, whilst everyone else decided to take the day off.
That would be consistent with the FON (very strong enthusiasm filter) model.
Just as EICIPM didn't need votes?
Is this your first day following Political Betting, as polls are just snapshots and not the future writ large.
Until the votes are cast parties absolutely do need votes - and even more absolutely do want them too.
Do you support Starmer's deal with the US and his closeness to Trump ?
North Carolina - Schumer is "increasingly confident" that former Governor Roy Cooper will agree to enter the race. He would be a very formidable candidate against Thom Tillis. Cooper will make a decision by June.
https://www.axios.com/2025/04/22/north-carolina-senate-roy-cooper-schumer
Texas - An internal Republican poll shows Attorney General Ken Paxton has a 17 point lead over the incumbent John Cornyn for the Republican primary. The same poll also shows Paxton then going on to lose to likely Dem candidate Colin Allred by 52%-37%.
https://www.newsweek.com/democrats-could-win-first-texas-senate-race-33-years-poll-2066600
A sultan sentences one of his advisors to death for some offense. Facing execution, the condemned man begs the sultan for a reprieve. He makes an outrageous promise:
“Spare me for one year, and I will teach your dog to sing.”
The sultan, amused by the idea, agrees—thinking it impossible but entertaining.
Later, a fellow prisoner asks the advisor if he’s gone mad:
“You can’t teach a dog to sing!”
The advisor replies:
“True. But in a year, many things can happen. The sultan might die. He might change his mind. I might die. The dog might die. Or—who knows?—the dog might learn to sing.”
You what? Are you sure you want to be saying this, on a site that forensically studies and discusses opinion polls, and disapproves of those dissing official pollsters?
Also, HAHAHAH
You're upset. Bless
And blether on the Beeb that would embarrass John Virgo.
Compare and contrast with the Tory AuzNZ deal which was so bad that news media there were openly laughing at us for giving so much away for such little in return.
We know what the Kemi mentality is. Unless the Tories did it, we get shafted. Nobody is listening any more Kemi!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czrlkzd5p2lo
"US election 2024: Nigel Farage goes 'full Donald Trump' meeting him backstage at rally before America votes"
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/us-politics/us-election-donald-trump-nigel-farage-kamala-harris-vote-reform-labour-intefere-b1192018.html
"Nigel Farage to speak at Trump fundraiser after 800 hours of non-MP work since election"
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/mar/20/nigel-farage-to-give-speech-at-25000-ticket-trump-fundraiser-in-florida"
+ many more.
Farage is right up Trump's backside.
Frankly they are embarrassing
Apparently, Emily Maitlis hadn't realised it was AV and there would be further rounds announced.
"We've been shafted!"
The rest of us are intelligent enough to know that polls change.
Clean yourself up and stop embarrassing yourself. Try to have some dignity.
Ironically it won't change my vote but it may actually help the Lib Dems as I expect the left are not at all impressed with Starmer’s relationship with Trump
As far as Kemi is concerned I am ambivalent towards her and the conservative party are not at the races at present
This is a forum of cranky, middle aged men, by and large.
That’s one of the last things we’d discuss.
Or please, please, BBC, do what you did with the coronation and the funeral of QE2 and give us the option to watch without commentary.
It took Maggie about a decade as PM before she started talking about herself as "we".
Farage is well and truly in Trump's pocket.
He had leads of 10pts+ at this stage of the 2010-2015 Parliament, and there was nothing that could stop him on the path to number 10.
Poor Donald
I'd heard the name mentioned a few times, but he was no-one near the top of most people's papabile lists. Shows what we will know.