So far no mention of DST. But I’d be surprised if it’s not in there.
Reuters now reporting the DST is untouched. That’ll surprise the tech companies.
So this looks like a very limited and provisional tariff relief agreement that leaves UK exporters and US consumers worse off than pre Trump but better off than they might theoretically have been.
Unless there is a lot more in there that isn't being announced it is basically a deal for JLR.
JLR and a few Oklahoma beef farmers perhaps. I assume the Boeing order is just a typical reannouncement of something that was happening anyway.
To be honest, I will be surprised if we see loads more US beef coming to the UK. They aren't going to do it cheaper than the Brazilians and nobody is going out to buy US beef for the high end.
I agree with TSE that centre left/anti Reform people will be very open to tactical voting to keep Reform out. In quite a number of seats, unless Lab and LD come to a quiet agreement about where to put out their bar charts, there will be a genuine difficulty in knowing who to vote for to vote tactically.
Take Fareham and Waterlooville for example:
Conservative 17,561 Labour 11,482 Liberal Democrat 9,533 Reform UK 9084
To keep Reform out do you vote Labour, LD, or is the only anti Reform option that could work to vote Tory?
So other than increased tariffs compared to pre Trump what have the UK got out of this deal?
It's a defender position. Hoping to hang onto as many auto exports to the US as possible.
Times have been brutal for UK exporters. Clobbered by Brexit then hit on the rebound by US tariffs. The worst export position of any G7 by a distance - that's the bottom line on this tiny chart:
If something as momentous as reversing Brexit were decided, I doubt a triviality like this would stand in the way. First time round we severed trade deals with the entire Commonwealth.
Whatever your view on this, the fact they've changed their mind after a few days makes them look slightly ridiculous.
"Germany’s spy agency walks back extremist label for AfD The domestic intelligence agency steps back from labeling the AfD a confirmed extremist group — just days after making the explosive claim."
It's actually standard procedure for the Bundesamt für Verfassungsschutz. They did exactly the same thing in 2023, for example, when they designated the youth wing of the AfD as confirmed extremist, then put that on hold while the AfD made a challenge in court. After the AfD had lost in court they used the confirmed extremist designation again. The same has happened in other cases.
So no, they haven't changed their minds. Now we wait to see what the court says.
If something as momentous as reversing Brexit were decided, I doubt a triviality like this would stand in the way. First time round we severed trade deals with the entire Commonwealth.
Yes but in those days we were willing to tell them where to jolly well go. It’s not like that with Uncle Sam now.
So far no mention of DST. But I’d be surprised if it’s not in there.
Reuters now reporting the DST is untouched. That’ll surprise the tech companies.
So this looks like a very limited and provisional tariff relief agreement that leaves UK exporters and US consumers worse off than pre Trump but better off than they might theoretically have been.
Unless there is a lot more in there that isn't being announced it is basically a deal for JLR.
JLR and a few Oklahoma beef farmers perhaps. I assume the Boeing order is just a typical reannouncement of something that was happening anyway.
To be honest, I will be surprised if we see loads more US beef coming to the UK. They aren't going to do it cheaper than the Brazilians and nobody is going out to buy US beef for the high end.
You do see a fair amount turning up on overpriced American steakhouses in the city. “Prime USDA rib” etc. so there is a market for it in the eating out sector.
I agree with TSE that centre left/anti Reform people will be very open to tactical voting to keep Reform out. In quite a number of seats, unless Lab and LD come to a quiet agreement about where to put out their bar charts, there will be a genuine difficulty in knowing who to vote for to vote tactically.
Take Fareham and Waterlooville for example:
Conservative 17,561 Labour 11,482 Liberal Democrat 9,533 Reform UK 9084
To keep Reform out do you vote Labour, LD, or is the only anti Reform option that could work to vote Tory?
That will become clearer in a couple of years time. What seems on the way to becoming irreversible is the death of the Tory party. If Reform is their replacement, it's hardly a matter for celebration, but there are very few who will fight to preserve it.
So far no mention of DST. But I’d be surprised if it’s not in there.
Reuters now reporting the DST is untouched. That’ll surprise the tech companies.
So this looks like a very limited and provisional tariff relief agreement that leaves UK exporters and US consumers worse off than pre Trump but better off than they might theoretically have been.
Unless there is a lot more in there that isn't being announced it is basically a deal for JLR.
JLR and a few Oklahoma beef farmers perhaps. I assume the Boeing order is just a typical reannouncement of something that was happening anyway.
To be honest, I will be surprised if we see loads more US beef coming to the UK. They aren't going to do it cheaper than the Brazilians and nobody is going out to buy US beef for the high end.
You do see a fair amount turning up on overpriced American steakhouses in the city. “Prime USDA rib” etc. so there is a market for it in the eating out sector.
The other one people fall for "Wagyu / Kobe beef (whispers) from the US", because 40-50 years ago the Japanese sold a small number of their cattle to the US who then have interbred them so they are about as Wagyu as Elisabeth Warren is native American.
More than four in 10 universities in England are expecting to be in a financial deficit by this summer, according to new report from the Office for Students (OfS).
The OfS, which regulates higher education providers, said universities were closing courses and selling buildings to cut costs, but "significant reform and efficiencies" were needed to turn the tide.
It said a drop in international students coming to the UK was the main reason for the worsening financial position.
a realistic possibility is that Find Out Now, rather than being a series of skewed outliers are in fact just a matter of days ahead of the game. Bonkers, but it might be true.
HYUFD will be pleased to note that Epping Forest is one of the seats the Tories retain. But Malc, Ayr goes Reform. As indeed does Wythenshawe, which I confidently predicted yesterday would never be anything but Labour.
LLG 46 RefCon 48, but getting towards a situation where the right wing vote is more efficient than the left.
Labour needs to get some of those 11% Green votes back.
Doesn't the header of this very thread suggest that LabLDGr is much more significant than RefCon.
One line that stands out for me, is 37% of Reform voters would take a coalition with the Lib Dems (far more than Labour or Green right now), but only 10% of Lib Dems would support the same.
Suggests that the Reform vote has a lot of voters who aren't simply right wing.
a realistic possibility is that Find Out Now, rather than being a series of skewed outliers are in fact just a matter of days ahead of the game. Bonkers, but it might be true.
Pre GE YouGov & People Polling, FON’s predecessor, seemed to be the ones who realised Labour weren’t getting near 40% first
But it does seem a bit too cosy that a massive Reform supporter’s pollster always finds bigger support for them.
At that level of Reform share, tactical voting doesn't help non-Reform parties much: that points to a clear Reform majority, and it's entirely possible that the LibDems end up the official opposition.
a realistic possibility is that Find Out Now, rather than being a series of skewed outliers are in fact just a matter of days ahead of the game. Bonkers, but it might be true.
I've thought that all along. There was no reason to think Find Out Now was biased.
That foundational 20% level has definitely gone for the Tories now. Will Labour hold on to it.
Probably, or thereabouts. However bad Labour's problems, the Conservatives are in a worse place.
The question is really... why would anyone vote Conservative right now, except out of decades-old tribal loyalty?
Not for pragmatic sound government.
Not for firm right-wingery.
Not because they're the winning side (c'mon, it was always part of the appeal.)
Not as the best vehicle to beat the stinky Socialists.
What, exactly, is left?
Vaguely talking of which, here's a neat Sankey diagram of vote flows since 2015. At least so far, the Con-Farage flows are way more important than the Lab-Farage ones.
a realistic possibility is that Find Out Now, rather than being a series of skewed outliers are in fact just a matter of days ahead of the game. Bonkers, but it might be true.
Is it a realistic possibility? What would be the explanation for their panel changing opinion in advance of the rest of the panels?
Whereas, if they were outliers with a pro-Reform slant, then you'd expect their Reform vote to grow if others are. Exactly as we see.
At that level of Reform share, tactical voting doesn't help non-Reform parties much: that points to a clear Reform majority, and it's entirely possible that the LibDems end up the official opposition.
In that case expect their enthusiasm for electoral reform to disappear in record time.
At that level of Reform share, tactical voting doesn't help non-Reform parties much: that points to a clear Reform majority, and it's entirely possible that the LibDems end up the official opposition.
Hard to see it being anyone other than one of the favourites. Parolin seems most likely to me.
Agreed: my guess would be an insider and someone that both wings of the Catholic Church would find broadly acceptable. Which is Parolin.
Parolin is a more conservative than Francis on homosexuality and on migration: he's a competent - dull - centrist. You might call him the Starmer of the Cardinals.
I would put £20 on Parolin. That it happened this quickly makes it unlikely that it's someone from left field. If Parolin did well in the early votes, I can easily see people coalescing behind him, because he's more conservative than Francis, but not so conservative as to cause the progressive problems.
LLG 46 RefCon 48, but getting towards a situation where the right wing vote is more efficient than the left.
Labour needs to get some of those 11% Green votes back.
Doesn't the header of this very thread suggest that LabLDGr is much more significant than RefCon.
One line that stands out for me, is 37% of Reform voters would take a coalition with the Lib Dems (far more than Labour or Green right now), but only 10% of Lib Dems would support the same.
Suggests that the Reform vote has a lot of voters who aren't simply right wing.
The question of the broad politics of the Reform Party, Reform Candidates, the Reform leader, Reform voters and Reform manifestos - to say nothing of what a Reform administration would actually do - are all important, difficult and linked.
Except for migration (where their views are described as 'right' but I am not sure that's correct - better described as independent nationalist and very cross) their views are not much examined, nor is there an easy way of doing so. I think it is vanishingly unlikely that they would be 'right wing' at all except for some cultural decoration. They will be best seen as a sub-species of 'blue Labour' and decisively social democrat in their approach. Right wing will not do as a description.
I can't see Tagle getting it: he's too liberal. And if he were to get it it, it would only be after wearing down the cosnservatives over multiple rounds of voting where it became clear that he was the preferred liberal candidate.
That's a pretty badly written article, they can buy up to 10 years so a pro-rata 10/35 of the full pension and index linking is dependent on the country you've "retired" to ... Even so it does seem that this could have been avoided.
At that level of Reform share, tactical voting doesn't help non-Reform parties much: that points to a clear Reform majority, and it's entirely possible that the LibDems end up the official opposition.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
Normally tipping point is just hyperbole but I wonder if one has now actually been reached
We discussed it on pb a month or so back. Because, as the "merge with income tax" advocates persistently ignore, NICs are used to qualify for the state pension, there are lots of people abroad who used to work here and pay NICs here who now qualify for at least a partial state pension. This is then compounded by the facility to "top up" NICs for missing years in order to qualify for a full pension.
All we need now is for some idiot minister to declare the system not fit for purpose because that's easier than actually getting a grip on the subject.
If we had PR, but we don't. Reform can win an overall majority.
Now that the electorate have shown themselves to be adept at voting tactically I'd say Farage's chances of getting a majority are zero. There's 60% of Remainers who wouldn't touch him with a bargepole.
That's a pretty badly written article, they can buy up to 10 years so a pro-rata 10/35 of the full pension and index linking is dependent on the country you've "retired" to ... Even so it does seem that this could have been avoided.
Voluntary contributions are laughably cheap. I tell every Brit I know who is working overseas about it.
At that level of Reform share, tactical voting doesn't help non-Reform parties much: that points to a clear Reform majority, and it's entirely possible that the LibDems end up the official opposition.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
Normally tipping point is just hyperbole but I wonder if one has now actually been reached
Yes, if we're ever going to get a tipping point, this must be it
THAT SAID, we need a few more polls with similar numbers to this, not from Find Out Now. That said again, Find Out Now were arguably closer to the local elex results than other pollsters, so maybe Find Out Now are actually superior at polling this new situation with this new party
Basically, anyone supporting the Tories who wants a change from Labour now needs to shift to Reform. I just can't see the Tories coming back from 16%, unless they get Boris in and he does a miracle, or somehow Jenrick.....
If we had PR, but we don't. Reform can win an overall majority.
Now that the electorate have shown themselves to be adept at voting tactically I'd say Farage's chances of getting a majority are zero. There's 60% of Remainers who wouldn't touch him with a bargepole.
That's that then. Rogerdamus has told us. Nigel will win in 2028. Might as well stop polling
If we had PR, but we don't. Reform can win an overall majority.
Now that the electorate have shown themselves to be adept at voting tactically I'd say Farage's chances of getting a majority are zero. There's 60% of Remainers who wouldn't touch him with a bargepole.
If we had PR, but we don't. Reform can win an overall majority.
Now that the electorate have shown themselves to be adept at voting tactically I'd say Farage's chances of getting a majority are zero. There's 60% of Remainers who wouldn't touch him with a bargepole.
If something as momentous as reversing Brexit were decided, I doubt a triviality like this would stand in the way. First time round we severed trade deals with the entire Commonwealth.
At that level of Reform share, tactical voting doesn't help non-Reform parties much: that points to a clear Reform majority, and it's entirely possible that the LibDems end up the official opposition.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
Normally tipping point is just hyperbole but I wonder if one has now actually been reached
Yes, if we're ever going to get a tipping point, this must be it
THAT SAID, we need a few more polls with similar numbers to this, not from Find Out Now. That said again, Find Out Now were arguably closer to the local elex results than other pollsters, so maybe Find Out Now are actually superior at polling this new situation with this new party
Basically, anyone supporting the Tories who wants a change from Labour now needs to shift to Reform. I just can't see the Tories coming back from 16%, unless they get Boris in and he does a miracle, or somehow Jenrick.....
Nah
Reform need to drop the Putinism and Hunt-up their economics before I'd consider them
I really want to see StatsForLefties map of this...
Tipping point indeed.
In my constituency of Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard, Labour have a majority of 600. It ought to be a nailed on gain for the Conservatives next time.
We didn't have local elections last week but if we had, Reform would have cleaned up. At this rate, I expect them to do so when we hold them in 2027.
Reform will then argue, with some justification, that a vote for the Conservatives is a wasted vote. With polling like this, that will be increasingly hard to counter.
If we had PR, but we don't. Reform can win an overall majority.
Now that the electorate have shown themselves to be adept at voting tactically I'd say Farage's chances of getting a majority are zero. There's 60% of Remainers who wouldn't touch him with a bargepole.
At that level of Reform share, tactical voting doesn't help non-Reform parties much: that points to a clear Reform majority, and it's entirely possible that the LibDems end up the official opposition.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
Normally tipping point is just hyperbole but I wonder if one has now actually been reached
If you're scrabbling for positives for the Tories, only 25% of their '24 vote has gone to Reform according to this poll. And only 2% to the Lib Dems. It's not doomsday yet.
It's not really a tipping point, more a gigantic enthusiasm gap.
At that level of Reform share, tactical voting doesn't help non-Reform parties much: that points to a clear Reform majority, and it's entirely possible that the LibDems end up the official opposition.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
Normally tipping point is just hyperbole but I wonder if one has now actually been reached
Yes, if we're ever going to get a tipping point, this must be it
THAT SAID, we need a few more polls with similar numbers to this, not from Find Out Now. That said again, Find Out Now were arguably closer to the local elex results than other pollsters, so maybe Find Out Now are actually superior at polling this new situation with this new party
Basically, anyone supporting the Tories who wants a change from Labour now needs to shift to Reform. I just can't see the Tories coming back from 16%, unless they get Boris in and he does a miracle, or somehow Jenrick.....
Nah
Reform need to drop the Putinism and Hunt-up their economics before I'd consider them
That Conservative voters are so keen on another coalition with the LDs is for the birds. Once bitten…
The relative enthusiasm of Reform voters for a coalition with the LDs highlights that a significant part of their appeal is a rejection of the two-party system - they’re not all rabid right wingers! The LD voters, of course, won’t reciprocate.
Comments
Westminster Voting Intention:
RFM: 33% (+4)
LAB: 20% (-1)
CON: 16% (-3)
LDM: 15% (+2)
GRN: 11% (=)
Via @FindoutnowUK, 7 May.
Changes w/ 30 Apr.
Reform 33%, Labour 20%, Conservative 16%, Lib Dem 15%, Green 11~%.
That foundational 20% level has definitely gone for the Tories now. Will Labour hold on to it.
Take Fareham and Waterlooville for example:
Conservative 17,561
Labour 11,482
Liberal Democrat 9,533
Reform UK 9084
To keep Reform out do you vote Labour, LD, or is the only anti Reform option that could work to vote Tory?
Ref 416
Lab 92
LD 56
Con 8
Times have been brutal for UK exporters. Clobbered by Brexit then hit on the rebound by US tariffs. The worst export position of any G7 by a distance - that's the bottom line on this tiny chart:
So no, they haven't changed their minds. Now we wait to see what the court says.
What seems on the way to becoming irreversible is the death of the Tory party.
If Reform is their replacement, it's hardly a matter for celebration, but there are very few who will fight to preserve it.
Labour needs to get some of those 11% Green votes back.
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1920500466812616942
Even in Runcorn Reform only scraped home by 6 votes in circumstances that could hardly have been more favourable for them.
"Exclusive: the state pension is being siphoned off abroad
And HMRC has no idea where it’s going to.
By Will Dunn"
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/economy/2025/04/exclusive-state-pension-is-being-siphoned-off-abroad
The OfS, which regulates higher education providers, said universities were closing courses and selling buildings to cut costs, but "significant reform and efficiencies" were needed to turn the tide.
It said a drop in international students coming to the UK was the main reason for the worsening financial position.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8dgdlrdnrgo
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
a realistic possibility is that Find Out Now, rather than being a series of skewed outliers are in fact just a matter of days ahead of the game. Bonkers, but it might be true.
But Malc, Ayr goes Reform. As indeed does Wythenshawe, which I confidently predicted yesterday would never be anything but Labour.
Check out the tables. Reform have 89% voter retention from GE '24, compared with 44% and 48% for Lab and Con.
Labour have lost 7% to Reform, compared to 42% to other lefty parties and DK.
That was quick
Doubt many people will care either way.
One line that stands out for me, is 37% of Reform voters would take a coalition with the Lib Dems (far more than Labour or Green right now), but only 10% of Lib Dems would support the same.
Suggests that the Reform vote has a lot of voters who aren't simply right wing.
But it does seem a bit too cosy that a massive Reform supporter’s pollster always finds bigger support for them.
“What’s wrong with that?”
“Too many had the same idea…”
The question is really... why would anyone vote Conservative right now, except out of decades-old tribal loyalty?
Not for pragmatic sound government.
Not for firm right-wingery.
Not because they're the winning side (c'mon, it was always part of the appeal.)
Not as the best vehicle to beat the stinky Socialists.
What, exactly, is left?
Vaguely talking of which, here's a neat Sankey diagram of vote flows since 2015. At least so far, the Con-Farage flows are way more important than the Lab-Farage ones.
https://bsky.app/profile/profjanegreen.bsky.social/post/3lonqdzu4u22m
Whereas, if they were outliers with a pro-Reform slant, then you'd expect their Reform vote to grow if others are. Exactly as we see.
Parolin 5/2
Tagle 10/3
Everyone else 7/1 or higher
Seriously though does anyone think Starmer Indian and US deals will help him in the polls
I am impressed but then I still would not vote labour
I really want to see StatsForLefties map of this...
Except for migration (where their views are described as 'right' but I am not sure that's correct - better described as independent nationalist and very cross) their views are not much examined, nor is there an easy way of doing so. I think it is vanishingly unlikely that they would be 'right wing' at all except for some cultural decoration. They will be best seen as a sub-species of 'blue Labour' and decisively social democrat in their approach. Right wing will not do as a description.
Parolin is my bet. 5/2 are good odds.
Even so it does seem that this could have been avoided.
All we need now is for some idiot minister to declare the system not fit for purpose because that's easier than actually getting a grip on the subject.
And Badenoch is reuniting the right, just not in the way that she (or, I suspect, you deep down) want...
Tory leader Kemi Badenoch on US-UK trade deal: "“Keir Starmer called this ‘historic.’ It’s not historic, we’ve just been shafted!”
Shadow trade secretary Andrew Griffith on it: "The reduction in tariffs announced today will be welcomed by exporting businesses."
https://bsky.app/profile/kevinschofied.bsky.social/post/3loobkrwudc22
THAT SAID, we need a few more polls with similar numbers to this, not from Find Out Now. That said again, Find Out Now were arguably closer to the local elex results than other pollsters, so maybe Find Out Now are actually superior at polling this new situation with this new party
Basically, anyone supporting the Tories who wants a change from Labour now needs to shift to Reform. I just can't see the Tories coming back from 16%, unless they get Boris in and he does a miracle, or somehow Jenrick.....
Nah
What are the odds of the new Pope being a transexual from Afghanistan?
Who'd have thought it?
These are difficult days for you especially as Starmer has found a new best friend in Trump now known as Keir and Donald to each other even in public
In my constituency of Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard, Labour have a majority of 600. It ought to be a nailed on gain for the Conservatives next time.
We didn't have local elections last week but if we had, Reform would have cleaned up. At this rate, I expect them to do so when we hold them in 2027.
Reform will then argue, with some justification, that a vote for the Conservatives is a wasted vote. With polling like this, that will be increasingly hard to counter.
It's not really a tipping point, more a gigantic enthusiasm gap.
So pretty much cease to be Reform.
The relative enthusiasm of Reform voters for a coalition with the LDs highlights that a significant part of their appeal is a rejection of the two-party system - they’re not all rabid right wingers! The LD voters, of course, won’t reciprocate.