At risk of sounding stupid...why are they reactivating Alcatraz? The American prison system is outstandingly good at keeping prisoners imprisoned. Is this just vibes?
Eek. I think I have covid. No sense of smell. Sudden symptom and decidedly odd
Does anyone know if you can still get test kits at Boots etc?
I don't think you can. You could always use the last Government's preferred route of procurement- AliExpress.
Ah bollocks. But thanks
Losing sense of smell is quite disturbing- it happened to me before with Covid and freaked me out. It alters life a lot
However it returned quite quickly - a few days - so I am 🙏🙏 the same happens now
My wife and I are recovering from a brutal respiratory infection now in the 3rd week with dreadful cough but tested negative for covid and we also lost our taste
Actually it's been worse than the 2 occasions we had covid and that is saying something
I am not sure that the retail covid tests are very reliable with the new variants.
Mrs Foxy's sense of smell and taste never fully recovered from covid. She caught it in the Delta wave of autumn 2020. She can taste and smell, but definitely not so well.
There's solid evidence now that smell training, or 'exercise', works. Get her to practice smelling different things.
Eek. I think I have covid. No sense of smell. Sudden symptom and decidedly odd
Does anyone know if you can still get test kits at Boots etc?
I don't think you can. You could always use the last Government's preferred route of procurement- AliExpress.
Ah bollocks. But thanks
Losing sense of smell is quite disturbing- it happened to me before with Covid and freaked me out. It alters life a lot
However it returned quite quickly - a few days - so I am 🙏🙏 the same happens now
My wife and I are recovering from a brutal respiratory infection now in the 3rd week with dreadful cough but tested negative for covid and we also lost our taste
Actually it's been worse than the 2 occasions we had covid and that is saying something
So the Brexiters were saying we can make new trade deals and as soon as one arrives they don’t like it .
And of course the media has failed to report what the deal actually means and that we have the same social security arrangements with a host of countries .
So really why bother with new trade deals , it’s just not worth it .
Dowden, Hannan and the Daily Telegraph leader are all on board.
However Farage isn't and that is all that matters on broadcast media.
On the face of it, I think it's a reasonable deal.
But, I suspect that my opinion matters far less than Farage's.
Farage is the only voice that matters this week. Even if he is talking bollocks the mainstream news can't get enough of the gurning twat.
Nigel needs to be asked the perfectly reasonable question: when you're PM will you unilaterally pull out of the India trade deal? 'No' and that will kill his objections stone dead; 'Yes' and he's Britain Trump with all the political problems that will entail.
I would bet a gill of milkshake to an avoirdupois pound of gammon that he will not rescind it when in government.
I really must insist on "if" instead of "when" there.
2029 hasn't even got out of bed yet.
You refused to believe Trump would win because you didn't want to. Same.
The criticisms of the India FTA are based on a series of misunderstandings.
...
🔵In short, instead of carping, Conservatives should take credit for having initiated this important work, and congratulate @jreynoldsMP for completing it.
Much as I think Hannan is an endlessly self-contradicting dick, well done to him for saying it. One possible way out of the current seething, Farage-tainted mess is for opposing parties to graciously agree when it’s possible rather than the constant sour oppositionism. Disclaimer: I barely have an opinion on the India trade deal.
Hannan is totally wrong on this, and smart enough to know it but understandably desperately spinning it.
His Brexit cost us 5.2% this Post Brexit Mega Deal for global Britain is 0.1%. That’s the bottom line.
Also says he's never punched anyone before in his life. Which I'm prepared to take at face value with only the minor comment that he doesn't look like someone who's only ever thrown one punch in his life. But faces can be misleading.
Did we ever get the full story of why Amesbury assaulted that guy?
What was said beforehand?
Wasn’t it about some bypass/bridge?
Amesbury was drunk, and thought that the other man was looking at him funny.
The 23 seats the Tories would win with today's YouGov poll:
Harrow East, Ruislip, Uxbridge, Chingford, Hendon, Croydon South, Epping Forest, East Grinstead, Reigate, Hamble Valley, Runnymede, Windsor, Hertsmere, Beaconsfield, Earley&Woodley, Somerset N, Monmouthshire, Solihull W, Sutton Coldfield, Stone, Leicester E, Middlesbrough S, Berwickshire
I don't think the Tories will hold Leicester East. That was a combination of Sunak motivating the Hindu vote, something that Jenrick will struggle to emulate, and a split opposition due to the fratricide in Labour in Leicester. Indeed it could be Labour's only gain in the GE.
I think Con will hold Rutland and Stamford (which includes a lot of East Leics).
Under a Conservative-Lib Dem coalition in 2012, the UK and Chile signed an agreement exempting temporary workers from social security contributions for *five* years
Not undercutting then, not undercutting now with India
5 years seems a very elastic definition of "temporary".
If you live and work in another country why shouldn't you pay the same taxes as everyone else?
If I go to France and work one day there, would it be sensible to have a system where I have to pay taxes while there? No. It's clearly silly taxing short visits. On the other hand, 5 years, as you say, seems very long. So what's a sensible intermediate time period?
A year?
So, as I understand it, that's the default rule in the UK. Foreign employees from all countries can work up to a year in the UK without having to pay NI, and then certain deals extend that period.
Also says he's never punched anyone before in his life. Which I'm prepared to take at face value with only the minor comment that he doesn't look like someone who's only ever thrown one punch in his life. But faces can be misleading.
Did we ever get the full story of why Amesbury assaulted that guy?
What was said beforehand?
Much was lost in the haze of 2am drunken recollections.
But it seems unlikely to me that Mike Amesbury went out that night looking for constituents to punch. God, I’d hate to be famous. 99% of people are lovely. But that still leaves a lot of people willing to have a pop or to goad you until you snap.
Also says he's never punched anyone before in his life. Which I'm prepared to take at face value with only the minor comment that he doesn't look like someone who's only ever thrown one punch in his life. But faces can be misleading.
Did we ever get the full story of why Amesbury assaulted that guy?
What was said beforehand?
Wasn’t it about some bypass/bridge?
Amesbury was drunk, and thought that the other man was looking at him funny.
Quite ironic that such traditional values led to a Reform gain.
Under a Conservative-Lib Dem coalition in 2012, the UK and Chile signed an agreement exempting temporary workers from social security contributions for *five* years
Not undercutting then, not undercutting now with India
5 years seems a very elastic definition of "temporary".
If you live and work in another country why shouldn't you pay the same taxes as everyone else?
If I go to France and work one day there, would it be sensible to have a system where I have to pay taxes while there? No. It's clearly silly taxing short visits. On the other hand, 5 years, as you say, seems very long. So what's a sensible intermediate time period?
A year?
So, as I understand it, that's the default rule in the UK. Foreign employees from all countries can work up to a year in the UK without having to pay NI, and then certain deals extend that period.
Aren't the numbers all part of the visa cap in any case?
Also says he's never punched anyone before in his life. Which I'm prepared to take at face value with only the minor comment that he doesn't look like someone who's only ever thrown one punch in his life. But faces can be misleading.
Did we ever get the full story of why Amesbury assaulted that guy?
What was said beforehand?
Much was lost in the haze of 2am drunken recollections...
67% of voters back Britain doing a deal with the EU where people aged between 18‑30 would be able to live, work or study in an EU country for up to four years, and EU citizens aged 18‑30 would have the same rights to live, work or study in the UK.
59% of Tory voters, 86% of Labour voters and 84% of LD voters back such a deal.
At risk of sounding stupid...why are they reactivating Alcatraz? The American prison system is outstandingly good at keeping prisoners imprisoned. Is this just vibes?
Trump saw an old Clint Eastwood movie. It really does seem as simple as that!
It was a bizarre rambling stream of brain dump even by Trump standards.
At risk of sounding stupid...why are they reactivating Alcatraz? The American prison system is outstandingly good at keeping prisoners imprisoned. Is this just vibes?
Vibes is a word we need to use a lot more in this populist age.
Weather stat: May 2nd 2025 was the biggest single day of solar generation I have had at my house (40.6kwh) since getting the panels installed just over two years ago, slightly beating the previous maximum of Jun 14th 2023 (39.6Kwh). You'd have thought there was only so sunny a day could be. Cloudless is cloudless. And you wouldn't have thought it was possible to be sunnier than a cloudless day in mid-June.
June 14th 2023 yielded 30.2 kwh for me on the month. Or 29.2 kwh according to the "day" app. System rated 4 kw, but through inverter clipping and/or panel age peak output Peak output is 3.6kw.
2nd May 25 wasn't near that, June 14th 2023 must have been cloudless all day at ~ 53.3 north nationwide.
At risk of sounding stupid...why are they reactivating Alcatraz? The American prison system is outstandingly good at keeping prisoners imprisoned. Is this just vibes?
Vibes is a word we need to use a lot more in this populist age.
Should this filter through to the public, I wonder whether it will make Starmer walk back some of the EU deal? Anything that might be called “freedom of movement”, certainly.
The hilarious thing about this current thread is that it is another £350m bus issue.
The enshitification of politics, powered by social media, driven by shysters, exemplified by Trump and BoZo, and Nigel Fucking Farage
Spin and distortion has been a part of politics since about 500 BC.
That's being overly generous to the Sumerians.
Delightfully pb comment. Drily amusing, slightly arch, appropriately pedantic, and referencing obscure bits of history in a way that casually assumes universal familiarity. Top marks.
Should this filter through to the public, I wonder whether it will make Starmer walk back some of the EU deal? Anything that might be called “freedom of movement”, certainly.
A clear majority of the public support a youth mobility scheme with the EU . And the negotiations for that will take place after the latest ONS immigration update at the end of May which will show a significant drop . The November update will show an even bigger drop .
The hilarious thing about this current thread is that it is another £350m bus issue.
The enshitification of politics, powered by social media, driven by shysters, exemplified by Trump and BoZo, and Nigel Fucking Farage
Or the failure of government communications?
I'm struggling to think of anyone in the current govt with the comms skills of Cameron, Hunt, Clarke, Blair, Thatcher etc....
Yes, that well known gene genius of PR and comms, that love child of Blair, Gandhi and JFK, with the voice of Martin Luther King and the charisma of Nelson Mandela… Jeremy Hunt
At risk of sounding stupid...why are they reactivating Alcatraz? The American prison system is outstandingly good at keeping prisoners imprisoned. Is this just vibes?
Vibes is a word we need to use a lot more in this populist age.
Vibe is promise, not delivery.
It’s also feelz not thoughts.
Vibes is a word of the 1960's. The 1980's hated vibes, because they were too vague and idealistic. But we need them too.
So the Brexiters were saying we can make new trade deals and as soon as one arrives they don’t like it .
And of course the media has failed to report what the deal actually means and that we have the same social security arrangements with a host of countries .
So really why bother with new trade deals , it’s just not worth it .
Dowden, Hannan and the Daily Telegraph leader are all on board.
However Farage isn't and that is all that matters on broadcast media.
On the face of it, I think it's a reasonable deal.
But, I suspect that my opinion matters far less than Farage's.
Spin is criticised, and often rightly so, but I suspect the government are going to gravely suffer here for having poor communications.
Government Comms are dreadful.
When a big trade win is reported as a failure of immigration by a two tier anti-white racist government by a party of racists the game should be up for Morgan McSweeney.
Ok, can you explain to me how it is impossible, under this deal, for tens of thousands of Indians to come to Britain and take British jobs, seeing as the Indians are now much cheaper to hire
This is not a gotcha. It’s a sincere q. If you can explain it - thankyou. And if you can, the government should hire you ASAFP coz you’d clearly do a better job than them
The gotcha on you is so obvious Leon. So many UK businesses from care, building, high street, hospitality, are crying out to bring people in, you are saying No! Those jobs for British workers - zero movement.
Can’t you see how utterly stupid that sounds?
But British companies can’t benefit from the NI tax break, only Indian companies can.
For how many thousands of jobs for what period of time? The bottom line is everything about this India deal is INCONSEQUENTIAL. 0.1%
Government and opposition trying to make out there’s any consequential points from this mere inconsequential memorandum of understanding is silly.
I think the access to Indian markets for British companies could be consequential. India is a huge economy, but a very protectionist one. I don’t know how the pros and cons balance out, but the important parts are around that.
Should this filter through to the public, I wonder whether it will make Starmer walk back some of the EU deal? Anything that might be called “freedom of movement”, certainly.
A clear majority of the public support a youth mobility scheme with the EU . And the negotiations for that will take place after the latest ONS immigration update at the end of May which will show a significant drop . The November update will show an even bigger drop .
Dream on. It won't be a net reduction - there will still be considerable 100s of thousands immigrating. It won't go down well...
At risk of sounding stupid...why are they reactivating Alcatraz? The American prison system is outstandingly good at keeping prisoners imprisoned. Is this just vibes?
It’s just vibes. It’s Trump just thinking that anything that existed when he was younger must be a good idea now.
So the Brexiters were saying we can make new trade deals and as soon as one arrives they don’t like it .
And of course the media has failed to report what the deal actually means and that we have the same social security arrangements with a host of countries .
So really why bother with new trade deals , it’s just not worth it .
Dowden, Hannan and the Daily Telegraph leader are all on board.
However Farage isn't and that is all that matters on broadcast media.
On the face of it, I think it's a reasonable deal.
But, I suspect that my opinion matters far less than Farage's.
Farage is the only voice that matters this week. Even if he is talking bollocks the mainstream news can't get enough of the gurning twat.
Nigel needs to be asked the perfectly reasonable question: when you're PM will you unilaterally pull out of the India trade deal? 'No' and that will kill his objections stone dead; 'Yes' and he's Britain Trump with all the political problems that will entail.
I would bet a gill of milkshake to an avoirdupois pound of gammon that he will not rescind it when in government.
I really must insist on "if" instead of "when" there.
2029 hasn't even got out of bed yet.
You refused to believe Trump would win because you didn't want to. Same.
I don't feel quite as confident about this. Farage PM is a lot more likely than it ought to be but it's not like a fast train coming with the points fixed. No way I'm giving it to him yet.
Don;t think Pakistan has a prayer if India really gets going. 7 times the population, and I make it 340 million men between 20 and 50 compared to 50 million for Pakistan. India 10 times the defense budget of Pakistan too... (USD 78 Bn vs 7.8 Bn) Neither side is in NATO, though India is in BRICS. Can't really see any external actors getting overly involved though (A big difference to Ukr/Russia) other than the usual "urging of restraint". If push and shove come they've got rough parity on nukes, though I'd fancy the Indian ones to have a more reliable launch system than Pakistan given India's space (Which is to my mind nuclear launch adjacent) program is miles ahead of Pakistan. India's got a considerable area/number of big cities advantage too.
One for Pakistan to try and de-escalate immediately to my mind, as they are doing.
@Cookie if you’re looking at living in the southwest and you don’t mind rain (I’m guessing not given your present locale) and you don’t mind being far from everywhere else, then look at Falmouth
It’s a cracking little town with real character. Not over touristy. But lots of pubs and restaurants. Access to amazing countryside in minutes - cliffs, beaches, moors, or lush Cornish valleys like Helford
It’s a proper working port but also a university town - both give it life. If I had to live anywhere in the UK outside london it would be there. Falmouth
So the Brexiters were saying we can make new trade deals and as soon as one arrives they don’t like it .
And of course the media has failed to report what the deal actually means and that we have the same social security arrangements with a host of countries .
So really why bother with new trade deals , it’s just not worth it .
Dowden, Hannan and the Daily Telegraph leader are all on board.
However Farage isn't and that is all that matters on broadcast media.
On the face of it, I think it's a reasonable deal.
But, I suspect that my opinion matters far less than Farage's.
Spin is criticised, and often rightly so, but I suspect the government are going to gravely suffer here for having poor communications.
Government Comms are dreadful.
When a big trade win is reported as a failure of immigration by a two tier anti-white racist government by a party of racists the game should be up for Morgan McSweeney.
Ok, can you explain to me how it is impossible, under this deal, for tens of thousands of Indians to come to Britain and take British jobs, seeing as the Indians are now much cheaper to hire
This is not a gotcha. It’s a sincere q. If you can explain it - thankyou. And if you can, the government should hire you ASAFP coz you’d clearly do a better job than them
The gotcha on you is so obvious Leon. So many UK businesses from care, building, high street, hospitality, are crying out to bring people in, you are saying No! Those jobs for British workers - zero movement.
Can’t you see how utterly stupid that sounds?
But British companies can’t benefit from the NI tax break, only Indian companies can.
For how many thousands of jobs for what period of time? The bottom line is everything about this India deal is INCONSEQUENTIAL. 0.1%
Government and opposition trying to make out there’s any consequential points from this mere inconsequential memorandum of understanding is silly.
I think the access to Indian markets for British companies could be consequential. India is a huge economy, but a very protectionist one. I don’t know how the pros and cons balance out, but the important parts are around that.
The bottom line is 0.1%.
I’m laughing at the attackers of this nothing deal for trying to make out there’s important consequences, so I have to laugh at you for talking it up as well. No one’s fairer than me. 😇
At risk of sounding stupid...why are they reactivating Alcatraz? The American prison system is outstandingly good at keeping prisoners imprisoned. Is this just vibes?
Vibes is a word we need to use a lot more in this populist age.
Vibe is promise, not delivery.
It’s also feelz not thoughts.
Vibes is a word of the 1960's. The 1980's hated vibes, because they were too vague and idealistic. But we need them too.
Didn’t they knock out vibes on their synths in the 80’s?
Should this filter through to the public, I wonder whether it will make Starmer walk back some of the EU deal? Anything that might be called “freedom of movement”, certainly.
A clear majority of the public support a youth mobility scheme with the EU . And the negotiations for that will take place after the latest ONS immigration update at the end of May which will show a significant drop . The November update will show an even bigger drop .
Dream on. It won't be a net reduction - there will still be considerable 100s of thousands immigrating. It won't go down well...
The numbers are going to be capped. The EU have already agreed to that .
At risk of sounding stupid...why are they reactivating Alcatraz? The American prison system is outstandingly good at keeping prisoners imprisoned. Is this just vibes?
It’s just vibes. It’s Trump just thinking that anything that existed when he was younger must be a good idea now.
They were debating this on the Bulwark podcast earlier in the week: what was it about Alcatraz that's got Trump interested. They concluded it was partly the films but also in 50 and 60s it was a bit of a 'thing', the pinnacle of the prison system and a place no one could escape etc etc.
How could Badenoch fail to score this week in particular at PMQs?
She didn’t go near the Indian trade deal because her so called outrage was just for the right wing papers.
No, it’s almost certainly because - as with Chagos - Starmer would turn around and say “the Tory government negotiated 90% of this deal, including the visa and tax details, we have simply delivered it, which they didn’t”
Remember, the Tories gave us the Boriswave. They probably thought this deal was a great idea too. See Dan Hannan
The Tories are fucked by their record, Labour are fucked by their venal incompetence, Farage will win in 2028
At risk of sounding stupid...why are they reactivating Alcatraz? The American prison system is outstandingly good at keeping prisoners imprisoned. Is this just vibes?
Vibes is a word we need to use a lot more in this populist age.
Vibe is promise, not delivery.
It’s also feelz not thoughts.
Vibes is a word of the 1960's. The 1980's hated vibes, because they were too vague and idealistic. But we need them too.
Didn’t they knock out vibes on their synths in the 80’s?
Yes, i was just actually going to quality that by saying that the early '80s still endorsed "vibes".
At risk of sounding stupid...why are they reactivating Alcatraz? The American prison system is outstandingly good at keeping prisoners imprisoned. Is this just vibes?
It’s just vibes. It’s Trump just thinking that anything that existed when he was younger must be a good idea now.
They were debating this on the Bulwark podcast earlier in the week: what was it about Alcatraz that's got Trump interested. They concluded it was partly the films but also in 50 and 60s it was a bit of a 'thing', the pinnacle of the prison system and a place no one could escape etc etc.
Trump and Alcatraz works well as a mental image actually.
So the Brexiters were saying we can make new trade deals and as soon as one arrives they don’t like it .
And of course the media has failed to report what the deal actually means and that we have the same social security arrangements with a host of countries .
So really why bother with new trade deals , it’s just not worth it .
Dowden, Hannan and the Daily Telegraph leader are all on board.
However Farage isn't and that is all that matters on broadcast media.
On the face of it, I think it's a reasonable deal.
But, I suspect that my opinion matters far less than Farage's.
Farage is the only voice that matters this week. Even if he is talking bollocks the mainstream news can't get enough of the gurning twat.
Nigel needs to be asked the perfectly reasonable question: when you're PM will you unilaterally pull out of the India trade deal? 'No' and that will kill his objections stone dead; 'Yes' and he's Britain Trump with all the political problems that will entail.
I would bet a gill of milkshake to an avoirdupois pound of gammon that he will not rescind it when in government.
I really must insist on "if" instead of "when" there.
2029 hasn't even got out of bed yet.
You refused to believe Trump would win because you didn't want to. Same.
I don't feel quite as confident about this. Farage PM is a lot more likely than it ought to be but it's not like a fast train coming with the points fixed. No way I'm giving it to him yet.
To me it is pretty certain it will be Farage (not necessarily Reform) vs Labour, with Farage favourite and Labour needing positive global economic news despite a loon in the White House trying to wreck everything.
How could Badenoch fail to score this week in particular at PMQs?
She didn’t go near the Indian trade deal because her so called outrage was just for the right wing papers.
No, it’s almost certainly because - as with Chagos - Starmer would turn around and say “the Tory government negotiated 90% of this deal, including the visa and tax details, we have simply delivered it, which they didn’t”
Remember, the Tories gave us the Boriswave. They probably thought this deal was a great idea too. See Dan Hannan
The Tories are fucked by their record, Labour are fucked by their venal incompetence, Farage will win in 2028
You would have said the same thing about Bozo. Given the last few years making predictions about an election 3 or 4 years away is very brave .
Don;t think Pakistan has a prayer if India really gets going. 7 times the population, and I make it 340 million men between 20 and 50 compared to 50 million for Pakistan. India 10 times the defense budget of Pakistan too... (USD 78 Bn vs 7.8 Bn) Neither side is in NATO, though India is in BRICS. Can't really see any external actors getting overly involved though (A big difference to Ukr/Russia) other than the usual "urging of restraint". If push and shove come they've got rough parity on nukes, though I'd fancy the Indian ones to have a more reliable launch system than Pakistan given India's space (Which is to my mind nuclear launch adjacent) program is miles ahead of Pakistan. India's got a considerable area/number of big cities advantage too.
One for Pakistan to try and de-escalate immediately to my mind, as they are doing.
It'll depend on what India's end-game in all of this is. If it is occupation of all of Pakistan, then they'll be in a world of pain, as American and Russian experience in Afghanistan shows. If it is to grab disputed areas, they'll have much more chance. If it is just a statement of strength after the terrorist attack, then I'll expect Pakistan to give a smaller response and the whole thing to die down.
But the Pakistani PM is addressing parliament as well, so we might know more in a few minutes.
The 23 seats the Tories would win with today's YouGov poll:
Harrow East, Ruislip, Uxbridge, Chingford, Hendon, Croydon South, Epping Forest, East Grinstead, Reigate, Hamble Valley, Runnymede, Windsor, Hertsmere, Beaconsfield, Earley&Woodley, Somerset N, Monmouthshire, Solihull W, Sutton Coldfield, Stone, Leicester E, Middlesbrough S, Berwickshire
I don't think the Tories will hold Leicester East. That was a combination of Sunak motivating the Hindu vote, something that Jenrick will struggle to emulate, and a split opposition due to the fratricide in Labour in Leicester. Indeed it could be Labour's only gain in the GE.
I think Con will hold Rutland and Stamford (which includes a lot of East Leics).
Nor is Middlesbrough South at all safe. It is currently held by Labour. Partly what the computer has done is overlook the fact that in some seats - such as Middlesbrough South or Epping, no doubt there are others - there was no Reform candidate in 2024.
That's like the difference between artificial intelligence and intelligence.
How could Badenoch fail to score this week in particular at PMQs?
She didn’t go near the Indian trade deal because her so called outrage was just for the right wing papers.
No, it’s almost certainly because - as with Chagos - Starmer would turn around and say “the Tory government negotiated 90% of this deal, including the visa and tax details, we have simply delivered it, which they didn’t”
Remember, the Tories gave us the Boriswave. They probably thought this deal was a great idea too. See Dan Hannan
The Tories are fucked by their record, Labour are fucked by their venal incompetence, Farage will win in 2028
Yet ironically immigration is now set to fall thanks to the higher salary requirements for visas and restrictions on dependents coming in that Rishi brought in
How could Badenoch fail to score this week in particular at PMQs?
She didn’t go near the Indian trade deal because her so called outrage was just for the right wing papers.
No, it’s almost certainly because - as with Chagos - Starmer would turn around and say “the Tory government negotiated 90% of this deal, including the visa and tax details, we have simply delivered it, which they didn’t”
Remember, the Tories gave us the Boriswave. They probably thought this deal was a great idea too. See Dan Hannan
The Tories are fucked by their record, Labour are fucked by their venal incompetence, Farage will win in 2028
You would have said the same thing about Bozo. Given the last few years making predictions about an election 3 or 4 years away is very brave .
But of course. Given the last five years it’s quite possible we will be invaded by Neptunian salamander-borgs before we reach the end of 2025
Take any remark by me such as “Farage wins in 2028” with a pinch of salt the size of the Salar de Uyuni
@Cookie if you’re looking at living in the southwest and you don’t mind rain (I’m guessing not given your present locale) and you don’t mind being far from everywhere else, then look at Falmouth
It’s a cracking little town with real character. Not over touristy. But lots of pubs and restaurants. Access to amazing countryside in minutes - cliffs, beaches, moors, or lush Cornish valleys like Helford
It’s a proper working port but also a university town - both give it life. If I had to live anywhere in the UK outside london it would be there. Falmouth
I'm not seriously looking to move. But I do like to know where I would live, hypothetically, in virtually any circumstance (I have a spreadsheet). And I came to exactly the same conclusion: for the south west, Falmouth. I had a holiday there a couple of years back and absolutely loved it for all the reasons you describe.
This is a few years off, but one of my daughters very much likes the idea of going to university there to study marine biology.
At risk of sounding stupid...why are they reactivating Alcatraz? The American prison system is outstandingly good at keeping prisoners imprisoned. Is this just vibes?
It’s just vibes. It’s Trump just thinking that anything that existed when he was younger must be a good idea now.
They were debating this on the Bulwark podcast earlier in the week: what was it about Alcatraz that's got Trump interested. They concluded it was partly the films but also in 50 and 60s it was a bit of a 'thing', the pinnacle of the prison system and a place no one could escape etc etc.
Trump and Alcatraz works well as a mental image actually.
How could Badenoch fail to score this week in particular at PMQs?
She didn’t go near the Indian trade deal because her so called outrage was just for the right wing papers.
No, it’s almost certainly because - as with Chagos - Starmer would turn around and say “the Tory government negotiated 90% of this deal, including the visa and tax details, we have simply delivered it, which they didn’t”
Remember, the Tories gave us the Boriswave. They probably thought this deal was a great idea too. See Dan Hannan
The Tories are fucked by their record, Labour are fucked by their venal incompetence, Farage will win in 2028
Yet ironically immigration is now set to fall thanks to the higher salary requirements for visas and restrictions on dependents coming in that Rishi brought in
It is almost as if parties can't get out of a dismal track record simply by changing things six months before an election. So unfair.
At risk of sounding stupid...why are they reactivating Alcatraz? The American prison system is outstandingly good at keeping prisoners imprisoned. Is this just vibes?
Vibes is a word we need to use a lot more in this populist age.
Vibe is promise, not delivery.
It’s also feelz not thoughts.
Vibes is a word of the 1960's. The 1980's hated vibes, because they were too vague and idealistic. But we need them too.
Didn’t they knock out vibes on their synths in the 80’s?
How could Badenoch fail to score this week in particular at PMQs?
She didn’t go near the Indian trade deal because her so called outrage was just for the right wing papers.
No, it’s almost certainly because - as with Chagos - Starmer would turn around and say “the Tory government negotiated 90% of this deal, including the visa and tax details, we have simply delivered it, which they didn’t”
Remember, the Tories gave us the Boriswave. They probably thought this deal was a great idea too. See Dan Hannan
The Tories are fucked by their record, Labour are fucked by their venal incompetence, Farage will win in 2028
Yet ironically immigration is now set to fall thanks to the higher salary requirements for visas and restrictions on dependents coming in that Rishi brought in
… and thanks to the fall in Ukraine and Hong Kong numbers, and student numbers being hit by worse economic conditions in China.
The railways are reported to be lowering the age for taking on new train drivers to 18 to solve the recruitment crisis. I think this can't work as by 18 they are all web designers and allied trades or Premiership footballers or working out how to be a perpetual student and/or work out the increasingly complex benefits system.
But I can report without doubt that if they recruit from the age of 4, focussing especially on male recruitment, they will find no shortage of applicants. I think even age 9/10 is too late.
How could Badenoch fail to score this week in particular at PMQs?
She didn’t go near the Indian trade deal because her so called outrage was just for the right wing papers.
No, it’s almost certainly because - as with Chagos - Starmer would turn around and say “the Tory government negotiated 90% of this deal, including the visa and tax details, we have simply delivered it, which they didn’t”
Remember, the Tories gave us the Boriswave. They probably thought this deal was a great idea too. See Dan Hannan
The Tories are fucked by their record, Labour are fucked by their venal incompetence, Farage will win in 2028
Yet ironically immigration is now set to fall thanks to the higher salary requirements for visas and restrictions on dependents coming in that Rishi brought in
It is almost as if parties can't get out of a dismal track record simply by changing things six months before an election. So unfair.
In addition, there is now a brisk trade in companies selling visas for non-existent jobs that pay well above the threshold.
Fun fact - by applying for the visa, the job gets added to the government vacancies statistics. Because it is never filled, it stays as a vacancy in the stats, for a long while.
At risk of sounding stupid...why are they reactivating Alcatraz? The American prison system is outstandingly good at keeping prisoners imprisoned. Is this just vibes?
Vibes is a word we need to use a lot more in this populist age.
Vibe is promise, not delivery.
It’s also feelz not thoughts.
Vibes is a word of the 1960's. The 1980's hated vibes, because they were too vague and idealistic. But we need them too.
Didn’t they knock out vibes on their synths in the 80’s?
The railways are reported to be lowering the age for taking on new train drivers to 18 to solve the recruitment crisis. I think this can't work as by 18 they are all web designers and allied trades or Premiership footballers or working out how to be a perpetual student and/or work out the increasingly complex benefits system.
But I can report without doubt that if they recruit from the age of 4, focussing especially on male recruitment, they will find no shortage of applicants. I think even age 9/10 is too late.
I know 2 ex colleagues in their late 30s who have quit the Fire Service to become train drivers. Better pay and conditions.
The railways are reported to be lowering the age for taking on new train drivers to 18 to solve the recruitment crisis. I think this can't work as by 18 they are all web designers and allied trades or Premiership footballers or working out how to be a perpetual student and/or work out the increasingly complex benefits system.
But I can report without doubt that if they recruit from the age of 4, focussing especially on male recruitment, they will find no shortage of applicants. I think even age 9/10 is too late.
Sadly sounds like a disaster waiting to happen, literally. If we are worried about teenage drivers, and we rightly are, why let them drive trains?
A question. What happens to Reform if Farage goes under a bus? (One with a big message on the side). Where does the vote go?
So much can happen between now and the next election it’s almost impossible to predict
Loose language for a lawyer. Predicting is always possible and easy; it's just that it is of course usually wrong.
'Almost impossible' means 'possible with difficulty'. In the sense of predicting reliably it isn't possible at all, even taking all difficulties into account. It isn't almost impossible, it's impossible.
@Cookie if you’re looking at living in the southwest and you don’t mind rain (I’m guessing not given your present locale) and you don’t mind being far from everywhere else, then look at Falmouth
It’s a cracking little town with real character. Not over touristy. But lots of pubs and restaurants. Access to amazing countryside in minutes - cliffs, beaches, moors, or lush Cornish valleys like Helford
It’s a proper working port but also a university town - both give it life. If I had to live anywhere in the UK outside london it would be there. Falmouth
I'm not seriously looking to move. But I do like to know where I would live, hypothetically, in virtually any circumstance (I have a spreadsheet). And I came to exactly the same conclusion: for the south west, Falmouth. I had a holiday there a couple of years back and absolutely loved it for all the reasons you describe.
This is a few years off, but one of my daughters very much likes the idea of going to university there to study marine biology.
It’s generally a very nice place to be a student - with the caveat that the “architecturally ambitious” penryn campus can be a bit bleak and windswept. The arty students have a much nicer time in the middle of town surrounded by the horticultural gardens
Nonetheless a fine place to study. Pubs, bars, life, the sea - sailing, swimming, climbing, kitesurfing, hiking - history beauty and a salty old dock. And great oysters
If I am forced by lack of smell to relocate within the UK that’s where I will go
The railways are reported to be lowering the age for taking on new train drivers to 18 to solve the recruitment crisis. I think this can't work as by 18 they are all web designers and allied trades or Premiership footballers or working out how to be a perpetual student and/or work out the increasingly complex benefits system.
But I can report without doubt that if they recruit from the age of 4, focussing especially on male recruitment, they will find no shortage of applicants. I think even age 9/10 is too late.
From what I've read and heard that's not right: there are lots of young people (women, as well as men) who want to become train drivers, but they go to uni/college instead at 18, and then get distracted into another career.
It's an interesting change; apparently when the RAF starts taking prospective pilots in for training as well. In that case, I think the *maximum* age is mid-twenties...
How could Badenoch fail to score this week in particular at PMQs?
She didn’t go near the Indian trade deal because her so called outrage was just for the right wing papers.
No, it’s almost certainly because - as with Chagos - Starmer would turn around and say “the Tory government negotiated 90% of this deal, including the visa and tax details, we have simply delivered it, which they didn’t”
Remember, the Tories gave us the Boriswave. They probably thought this deal was a great idea too. See Dan Hannan
The Tories are fucked by their record, Labour are fucked by their venal incompetence, Farage will win in 2028
Yet ironically immigration is now set to fall thanks to the higher salary requirements for visas and restrictions on dependents coming in that Rishi brought in
I linked a while ago to a tweet just after the election, I think it was from John Burn-Murdoch of the FT; the economy was recovering and immigration was falling under Sunak, but the public don’t hear the good news once they’ve decided they don’t like a politician. Sir Keir looks like he might suffer the same fate, assuming his policies do make things better
The railways are reported to be lowering the age for taking on new train drivers to 18 to solve the recruitment crisis. I think this can't work as by 18 they are all web designers and allied trades or Premiership footballers or working out how to be a perpetual student and/or work out the increasingly complex benefits system.
But I can report without doubt that if they recruit from the age of 4, focussing especially on male recruitment, they will find no shortage of applicants. I think even age 9/10 is too late.
Sadly sounds like a disaster waiting to happen, literally. If we are worried about teenage drivers, and we rightly are, why let them drive trains?
Same as with the 4 year old recruits; start them on the DLR and Victoria line and work up. They already drive the bus from the top deck front.
So the Brexiters were saying we can make new trade deals and as soon as one arrives they don’t like it .
And of course the media has failed to report what the deal actually means and that we have the same social security arrangements with a host of countries .
So really why bother with new trade deals , it’s just not worth it .
Dowden, Hannan and the Daily Telegraph leader are all on board.
However Farage isn't and that is all that matters on broadcast media.
On the face of it, I think it's a reasonable deal.
But, I suspect that my opinion matters far less than Farage's.
Farage is the only voice that matters this week. Even if he is talking bollocks the mainstream news can't get enough of the gurning twat.
Nigel needs to be asked the perfectly reasonable question: when you're PM will you unilaterally pull out of the India trade deal? 'No' and that will kill his objections stone dead; 'Yes' and he's Britain Trump with all the political problems that will entail.
I would bet a gill of milkshake to an avoirdupois pound of gammon that he will not rescind it when in government.
I really must insist on "if" instead of "when" there.
2029 hasn't even got out of bed yet.
You refused to believe Trump would win because you didn't want to. Same.
I don't feel quite as confident about this. Farage PM is a lot more likely than it ought to be but it's not like a fast train coming with the points fixed. No way I'm giving it to him yet.
To me it is pretty certain it will be Farage (not necessarily Reform) vs Labour, with Farage favourite and Labour needing positive global economic news despite a loon in the White House trying to wreck everything.
IMO the next election is shaping up as a choice between Labour or Reform, and if so I think Labour would win that. But let's be honest it's years away and the outcome is impossible to be confident of.
People can say Farage WILL win or he will NOT win but this is principally a way of talking to be vivid and interesting. He very well might but he's far from nailed on.
Fwiw I don't massively disagree with the 'most seats' market which has them at around 2.7 joint favs. So maybe a one in three chance of Farage PM. Oh god. That's easily high enough to be fretting about.
The railways are reported to be lowering the age for taking on new train drivers to 18 to solve the recruitment crisis. I think this can't work as by 18 they are all web designers and allied trades or Premiership footballers or working out how to be a perpetual student and/or work out the increasingly complex benefits system.
But I can report without doubt that if they recruit from the age of 4, focussing especially on male recruitment, they will find no shortage of applicants. I think even age 9/10 is too late.
What recruitment crisis? They've always had hundreds of applicants for every post publicly advertised. Unsurprising, given it's a very well paid fairly cushy (if responsible) gig, apart from when someone uses your train to commit suicide.
The problem is (and always has been) a combination of really stringent phycometric testing which weeds out 2/3rd of potential applicants before they get anywhere near a train, and the fact that training is really time consuming and expensive, which means all the TOCs are strongly incentivised to do train as few drivers as they can get away with.
A question. What happens to Reform if Farage goes under a bus? (One with a big message on the side). Where does the vote go?
So much can happen between now and the next election it’s almost impossible to predict
Loose language for a lawyer. Predicting is always possible and easy; it's just that it is of course usually wrong.
'Almost impossible' means 'possible with difficulty'. In the sense of predicting reliably it isn't possible at all, even taking all difficulties into account. It isn't almost impossible, it's impossible.
Well, you might get lucky. Therefore not impossible!
people are dunking on this but $65 million fighter jets only do this when they're very distressed
It's been a hell of a cruise for the Truman. They've crashed into a Panamanian bulk carrier, had a Super Hornet shot down by the Gettysburg, tossed one out of an elevator and now driven one off the end of the deck. I am quite surprised the Captain has not been relieved.
How could Badenoch fail to score this week in particular at PMQs?
She didn’t go near the Indian trade deal because her so called outrage was just for the right wing papers.
No, it’s almost certainly because - as with Chagos - Starmer would turn around and say “the Tory government negotiated 90% of this deal, including the visa and tax details, we have simply delivered it, which they didn’t”
Remember, the Tories gave us the Boriswave. They probably thought this deal was a great idea too. See Dan Hannan
The Tories are fucked by their record, Labour are fucked by their venal incompetence, Farage will win in 2028
At risk of sounding stupid...why are they reactivating Alcatraz? The American prison system is outstandingly good at keeping prisoners imprisoned. Is this just vibes?
At this time it's a Trump Rhetorical Dream.
They see it as being around Symbolism and Deterrence and Performative Cruelty. It's only a short segment of a few minutes.
It's Michael Howard on turbocharge, and then some. Was it Ann Widdecombe who demanded that female prisoners in hospital giving birth be kept in their handcuffs? It's that sort of thing.
They also have a tendency to defend everything Trump.
Under a Conservative-Lib Dem coalition in 2012, the UK and Chile signed an agreement exempting temporary workers from social security contributions for *five* years
Not undercutting then, not undercutting now with India
That argument will just get a frosty reception from Reform. And they will use it to say "It is not enough to kick Labour out, you have to punish the Tories too, they started this nonsense".
Why the hullabaloo about this policy? It doesn't make sense for a worker on a temporary intracompany transfer to pay into two social security systems at the same time. This policy is designed to boost services trade with a large, fast growing economy. If there ever was a Brexit dividend, being able to negotiate these kinds of deal is it - remember the Brexiteers telling us we couldn't tie ourselves to sclerotic Europe, we needed deals with the Commonwealth, we needed to focus on our advantages in services... The fact that Farage lobbied for Brexit and is now up in arms about this is indicative of what a charlatan he is.
I don't agree with the hullabaloo, the deal sounds fine, at least before seeing the detail. But can you really not see why?
There is huge discontent with the government (not just Labour but the last two decades). The primary reason (there are many) is around immigration, especially foreigners getting a perceived better deal than Brits. Farage and Reform have just had a massive win and are currently easy headlines for the media whether social or traditional. This story plays into all three, fairly or unfairly. It is obviously going to create hullabaloo. Why were Labour, yet again, unprepared?
What Labour need urgently is a really good spin doctor, who can think like Reform/Farage, and help completely change their communication approach as well as influence policy if there are clear own goals coming up.
Oh sure, the deal can be spun that way and the argument will be lapped up by the terminally gullible, which these days seems to be a good chunk of the electorate. My point is that if you think the UK should be doing trade deals focusing on services and fast growing large economies like India then this is what such a deal looks like.
It i sno great deal for the great unwashed , it will bomb with the public, especially when the "temporary workers" flood in , just a ruse to not count as immigration and makes it cheaper to employ an Indian immigrant rather than a UK unemployed person. Depending on who's storytelling you believe.
Should this filter through to the public, I wonder whether it will make Starmer walk back some of the EU deal? Anything that might be called “freedom of movement”, certainly.
A clear majority of the public support a youth mobility scheme with the EU . And the negotiations for that will take place after the latest ONS immigration update at the end of May which will show a significant drop . The November update will show an even bigger drop .
Dream on. It won't be a net reduction - there will still be considerable 100s of thousands immigrating. It won't go down well...
The numbers are going to be capped. The EU have already agreed to that .
You're missing the entirely obvious point.
No schemes that increase immigration will be supported in the context of 100s of thousands of additional people moving to Britain every year.
The hilarious thing about this current thread is that it is another £350m bus issue.
The enshitification of politics, powered by social media, driven by shysters, exemplified by Trump and BoZo, and Nigel Fucking Farage
Or the failure of government communications?
I'm struggling to think of anyone in the current govt with the comms skills of Cameron, Hunt, Clarke, Blair, Thatcher etc....
Yes, that well known gene genius of PR and comms, that love child of Blair, Gandhi and JFK, with the voice of Martin Luther King and the charisma of Nelson Mandela… Jeremy Hunt
He was, however, better than anyone in the current cabinet - by a mile!
How could Badenoch fail to score this week in particular at PMQs?
She didn’t go near the Indian trade deal because her so called outrage was just for the right wing papers.
No, it’s almost certainly because - as with Chagos - Starmer would turn around and say “the Tory government negotiated 90% of this deal, including the visa and tax details, we have simply delivered it, which they didn’t”
Remember, the Tories gave us the Boriswave. They probably thought this deal was a great idea too. See Dan Hannan
The Tories are fucked by their record, Labour are fucked by their venal incompetence, Farage will win in 2028
So the Brexiters were saying we can make new trade deals and as soon as one arrives they don’t like it .
And of course the media has failed to report what the deal actually means and that we have the same social security arrangements with a host of countries .
So really why bother with new trade deals , it’s just not worth it .
Dowden, Hannan and the Daily Telegraph leader are all on board.
However Farage isn't and that is all that matters on broadcast media.
On the face of it, I think it's a reasonable deal.
But, I suspect that my opinion matters far less than Farage's.
Spin is criticised, and often rightly so, but I suspect the government are going to gravely suffer here for having poor communications.
Government Comms are dreadful.
When a big trade win is reported as a failure of immigration by a two tier anti-white racist government by a party of racists the game should be up for Morgan McSweeney.
Ok, can you explain to me how it is impossible, under this deal, for tens of thousands of Indians to come to Britain and take British jobs, seeing as the Indians are now much cheaper to hire
This is not a gotcha. It’s a sincere q. If you can explain it - thankyou. And if you can, the government should hire you ASAFP coz you’d clearly do a better job than them
The gotcha on you is so obvious Leon. So many UK businesses from care, building, high street, hospitality, are crying out to bring people in, you are saying No! Those jobs for British workers - zero movement.
Can’t you see how utterly stupid that sounds?
But British companies can’t benefit from the NI tax break, only Indian companies can.
For how many thousands of jobs for what period of time? The bottom line is everything about this India deal is INCONSEQUENTIAL. 0.1%
Government and opposition trying to make out there’s any consequential points from this mere inconsequential memorandum of understanding is silly.
Almost as important as that Australian one that was going to make us all rich.
A question. What happens to Reform if Farage goes under a bus? (One with a big message on the side). Where does the vote go?
So much can happen between now and the next election it’s almost impossible to predict
Loose language for a lawyer. Predicting is always possible and easy; it's just that it is of course usually wrong.
'Almost impossible' means 'possible with difficulty'. In the sense of predicting reliably it isn't possible at all, even taking all difficulties into account. It isn't almost impossible, it's impossible.
I don't think that's a correct bit of pedantry in common usage. If you were correct then the word "unpredictable" would be essentially useless whereas, in practice, if someone describes something as "unpredictable", everyone knows that they mean there is so much that is unknown and uncertain that any guess would be made with a very low degree of confidence.
Indeed, we have the word "guess" as an alternative to "predict" partly to distinguish between situations where we have lower and higher levels of confidence based on availability of useful data.
So the Brexiters were saying we can make new trade deals and as soon as one arrives they don’t like it .
And of course the media has failed to report what the deal actually means and that we have the same social security arrangements with a host of countries .
So really why bother with new trade deals , it’s just not worth it .
Dowden, Hannan and the Daily Telegraph leader are all on board.
However Farage isn't and that is all that matters on broadcast media.
On the face of it, I think it's a reasonable deal.
But, I suspect that my opinion matters far less than Farage's.
Farage is the only voice that matters this week. Even if he is talking bollocks the mainstream news can't get enough of the gurning twat.
Nigel needs to be asked the perfectly reasonable question: when you're PM will you unilaterally pull out of the India trade deal? 'No' and that will kill his objections stone dead; 'Yes' and he's Britain Trump with all the political problems that will entail.
I would bet a gill of milkshake to an avoirdupois pound of gammon that he will not rescind it when in government.
I really must insist on "if" instead of "when" there.
2029 hasn't even got out of bed yet.
You refused to believe Trump would win because you didn't want to. Same.
I don't feel quite as confident about this. Farage PM is a lot more likely than it ought to be but it's not like a fast train coming with the points fixed. No way I'm giving it to him yet.
To me it is pretty certain it will be Farage (not necessarily Reform) vs Labour, with Farage favourite and Labour needing positive global economic news despite a loon in the White House trying to wreck everything.
IMO the next election is shaping up as a choice between Labour or Reform, and if so I think Labour would win that. But let's be honest it's years away and the outcome is impossible to be confident of.
People can say Farage WILL win or he will NOT win but this is principally a way of talking to be vivid and interesting. He very well might but he's far from nailed on.
Fwiw I don't massively disagree with the 'most seats' market which has them at around 2.7 joint favs. So maybe a one in three chance of Farage PM. Oh god. That's easily high enough to be fretting about.
The problem with that is that by election time Farage may well be leader of the Conservatives (10% chance of happening but nearly all of that wins the next GE) or another new party, perhaps after a merger (10%). If you can get big odds for any other unnamed party somewhere definitely worth taking, often quoted around 100/1.
I think he is odds on to be PM after the election, but 2.7 Reform feels about right, maybe should be 2.5.
Under a Conservative-Lib Dem coalition in 2012, the UK and Chile signed an agreement exempting temporary workers from social security contributions for *five* years
Not undercutting then, not undercutting now with India
5 years seems a very elastic definition of "temporary".
If you live and work in another country why shouldn't you pay the same taxes as everyone else?
Because it creates rights.
If the UK government had to pay pensions to every Indian resident who was here for 6-36 months it would be a pain. Administratively simpler to exclude them
I thought NI did not give you any legal rights to a pension. Nor do taxes give you a legal right to any public services, come to that.
It’s not hypotheticed. But a certain number of years of contributions gives you the right to whatever everyone else gets (which may be zero)
'The government will make it a crime to climb on Winston Churchill's statue in Parliament Square, it will be announced today.
Offenders could face up to three months in prison and a £1,000 fine for desecrating the monument to Britain's wartime leader.
The Churchill statue is not officially classified as one of the UK's war memorials, but Home Secretary Yvette Cooper plans to add it to the list of statues and monuments which it will soon become a criminal offence to climb.
These will include the Cenotaph in Whitehall, the Royal Artillery Memorial in Hyde Park, and many other famous structures across Britain commemorating the service of the armed forces in the First and Second World Wars. The new law is contained in the flagship Crime and Policing Bill currently progressing through Parliament.' https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdded9rqd2do
Don;t think Pakistan has a prayer if India really gets going. 7 times the population, and I make it 340 million men between 20 and 50 compared to 50 million for Pakistan. India 10 times the defense budget of Pakistan too... (USD 78 Bn vs 7.8 Bn) Neither side is in NATO, though India is in BRICS. Can't really see any external actors getting overly involved though (A big difference to Ukr/Russia) other than the usual "urging of restraint". If push and shove come they've got rough parity on nukes, though I'd fancy the Indian ones to have a more reliable launch system than Pakistan given India's space (Which is to my mind nuclear launch adjacent) program is miles ahead of Pakistan. India's got a considerable area/number of big cities advantage too.
One for Pakistan to try and de-escalate immediately to my mind, as they are doing.
It'll depend on what India's end-game in all of this is. If it is occupation of all of Pakistan, then they'll be in a world of pain, as American and Russian experience in Afghanistan shows. If it is to grab disputed areas, they'll have much more chance. If it is just a statement of strength after the terrorist attack, then I'll expect Pakistan to give a smaller response and the whole thing to die down.
But the Pakistani PM is addressing parliament as well, so we might know more in a few minutes.
Lol it definitely isn't occupation of Pakistan, who the fuck wants that shithole anyway? It's forcing an end to Pakistan's state sponsoring of terrorists and handing over the guilty people to India for prosecution. Pakistan is a terrorist state and India has every right to demand they stop funding and facilitating terrorist attacks against Indians. We did the same when Putin was funding similar groups in Eastern Ukraine and Georgia.
So the Brexiters were saying we can make new trade deals and as soon as one arrives they don’t like it .
And of course the media has failed to report what the deal actually means and that we have the same social security arrangements with a host of countries .
So really why bother with new trade deals , it’s just not worth it .
Dowden, Hannan and the Daily Telegraph leader are all on board.
However Farage isn't and that is all that matters on broadcast media.
On the face of it, I think it's a reasonable deal.
But, I suspect that my opinion matters far less than Farage's.
Farage is the only voice that matters this week. Even if he is talking bollocks the mainstream news can't get enough of the gurning twat.
Nigel needs to be asked the perfectly reasonable question: when you're PM will you unilaterally pull out of the India trade deal? 'No' and that will kill his objections stone dead; 'Yes' and he's Britain Trump with all the political problems that will entail.
I would bet a gill of milkshake to an avoirdupois pound of gammon that he will not rescind it when in government.
I really must insist on "if" instead of "when" there.
2029 hasn't even got out of bed yet.
You refused to believe Trump would win because you didn't want to. Same.
I don't feel quite as confident about this. Farage PM is a lot more likely than it ought to be but it's not like a fast train coming with the points fixed. No way I'm giving it to him yet.
To me it is pretty certain it will be Farage (not necessarily Reform) vs Labour, with Farage favourite and Labour needing positive global economic news despite a loon in the White House trying to wreck everything.
IMO the next election is shaping up as a choice between Labour or Reform, and if so I think Labour would win that. But let's be honest it's years away and the outcome is impossible to be confident of.
People can say Farage WILL win or he will NOT win but this is principally a way of talking to be vivid and interesting. He very well might but he's far from nailed on.
Fwiw I don't massively disagree with the 'most seats' market which has them at around 2.7 joint favs. So maybe a one in three chance of Farage PM. Oh god. That's easily high enough to be fretting about.
I think Reform are a lay at 2.7. The prospect of Farage as PM will focus minds and squeeze the green/Lib dem vote for Labour. Reform placed second in ~100 seats. That means they would have to come from 3rd/4th a lot to win most seats. And then there's the possibility of Tories getting their act together over next few years also.
A question. What happens to Reform if Farage goes under a bus? (One with a big message on the side). Where does the vote go?
So much can happen between now and the next election it’s almost impossible to predict
Loose language for a lawyer. Predicting is always possible and easy; it's just that it is of course usually wrong.
'Almost impossible' means 'possible with difficulty'. In the sense of predicting reliably it isn't possible at all, even taking all difficulties into account. It isn't almost impossible, it's impossible.
Well, you might get lucky. Therefore not impossible!
Fair point; but predicting reliably and predicting luckily are two different things. For the next election predicting reliably is truly impossible. But to predict luckily is not to predict but to guess.
To guess correctly is not 'almost impossible'. A fairly general guess about the outcome of the next election operates within a fairly narrow field of options. A lot fewer options than correctly guessing (not reliably predicting) next week's lottery numbers.
Should this filter through to the public, I wonder whether it will make Starmer walk back some of the EU deal? Anything that might be called “freedom of movement”, certainly.
A clear majority of the public support a youth mobility scheme with the EU . And the negotiations for that will take place after the latest ONS immigration update at the end of May which will show a significant drop . The November update will show an even bigger drop .
Dream on. It won't be a net reduction - there will still be considerable 100s of thousands immigrating. It won't go down well...
The numbers are going to be capped. The EU have already agreed to that .
You're missing the entirely obvious point.
No schemes that increase immigration will be supported in the context of 100s of thousands of additional people moving to Britain every year.
It’s possible the scheme will end up as 1 year which means it won’t be counted in the immigration figures. Regardless the public seem to support the idea and to be politically incorrect it’s younger people coming from white Christian countries which is less likely to cause Reform voters to have a meltdown.
There is English (and Welsh) law. Scots Law. Northern Ireland, Isle of Man and the Channel Islands have their own laws which makes it reasonable(?) to have their own legislative bodies. But why Wales and the Senned? It's an outlier.
Off to find a tin hat.
Because Wales is part of England & Wales, which is a single state.
The language needs tidying up, as it is hugely equivocal. Nation, state, country, kingdom are all used globally in multiple ways. Britain, British Isles and Great Britain have different meanings. Almost no-one can tell you the legal status of, for example, the Channel Islands or IoM in relation to the UK, UN, Brexit etc. and curiously, though its our own land masses, it is never taught to anyone of any age SFAICS.
The Channel Islands are part of the duchy of Normandy and a crown dependency I believe.
Not sure about the Isle of Man although at one point it was the private property of the monarch
'The government will make it a crime to climb on Winston Churchill's statue in Parliament Square, it will be announced today.
Offenders could face up to three months in prison and a £1,000 fine for desecrating the monument to Britain's wartime leader.
The Churchill statue is not officially classified as one of the UK's war memorials, but Home Secretary Yvette Cooper plans to add it to the list of statues and monuments which it will soon become a criminal offence to climb.
These will include the Cenotaph in Whitehall, the Royal Artillery Memorial in Hyde Park, and many other famous structures across Britain commemorating the service of the armed forces in the First and Second World Wars. The new law is contained in the flagship Crime and Policing Bill currently progressing through Parliament.' https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdded9rqd2do
UK is saved
Farage will find a sub-clause in the legislation that shows that overseas workers are allowed to climb the statue, for cleaning.
How could Badenoch fail to score this week in particular at PMQs?
She didn’t go near the Indian trade deal because her so called outrage was just for the right wing papers.
No, it’s almost certainly because - as with Chagos - Starmer would turn around and say “the Tory government negotiated 90% of this deal, including the visa and tax details, we have simply delivered it, which they didn’t”
Remember, the Tories gave us the Boriswave. They probably thought this deal was a great idea too. See Dan Hannan
The Tories are fucked by their record, Labour are fucked by their venal incompetence, Farage will win in 2028
Yet ironically immigration is now set to fall thanks to the higher salary requirements for visas and restrictions on dependents coming in that Rishi brought in
I linked a while ago to a tweet just after the election, I think it was from John Burn-Murdoch of the FT; the economy was recovering and immigration was falling under Sunak, but the public don’t hear the good news once they’ve decided they don’t like a politician. Sir Keir looks like he might suffer the same fate, assuming his policies do make things better
Both have terrible comms and a weak team around them. Starmer going in 2027/8 for a 2029 election and letting someone else take credit for improvements would make good electoral sense if Labour choose wisely (which on recent evidence......)
Comments
His Brexit cost us 5.2% this Post Brexit Mega Deal for global Britain is 0.1%. That’s the bottom line.
I think Con will hold Rutland and Stamford (which includes a lot of East Leics).
But it seems unlikely to me that Mike Amesbury went out that night looking for constituents to punch. God, I’d hate to be famous. 99% of people are lovely. But that still leaves a lot of people willing to have a pop or to goad you until you snap.
59% of Tory voters, 86% of Labour voters and 84% of LD voters back such a deal.
52% of Reform voters however oppose a deal on those terms and free movement for under 30s in the EEA for 4 years
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/international/survey-results/daily/2025/02/04/01be8/1?utm_source=daily_question&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=daily/2025/02/04_question_1
It was a bizarre rambling stream of brain dump even by Trump standards.
Vibe is promise, not delivery.
2nd May 25 wasn't near that, June 14th 2023 must have been cloudless all day at ~ 53.3 north nationwide.
I'm struggling to think of anyone in the current govt with the comms skills of Cameron, Hunt, Clarke, Blair, Thatcher etc....
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=N&CON=21&LAB=23&LIB=15&Reform=27&Green=7&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTReform=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2024base
Trumpeting a 70 seat poll.
The 1980's hated vibes, because they were too vague and idealistic. But we need them too.
India 10 times the defense budget of Pakistan too... (USD 78 Bn vs 7.8 Bn)
Neither side is in NATO, though India is in BRICS. Can't really see any external actors getting overly involved though (A big difference to Ukr/Russia) other than the usual "urging of restraint".
If push and shove come they've got rough parity on nukes, though I'd fancy the Indian ones to have a more reliable launch system than Pakistan given India's space (Which is to my mind nuclear launch adjacent) program is miles ahead of Pakistan. India's got a considerable area/number of big cities advantage too.
One for Pakistan to try and de-escalate immediately to my mind, as they are doing.
It’s a cracking little town with real character. Not over touristy. But lots of pubs and restaurants. Access to amazing countryside in minutes - cliffs, beaches, moors, or lush Cornish valleys like Helford
It’s a proper working port but also a university town - both give it life. If I had to live anywhere in the UK outside london it would be there. Falmouth
I’m laughing at the attackers of this nothing deal for trying to make out there’s important consequences, so I have to laugh at you for talking it up as well. No one’s fairer than me. 😇
Remember, the Tories gave us the Boriswave. They probably thought this deal was a great idea too. See Dan Hannan
The Tories are fucked by their record, Labour are fucked by their venal incompetence, Farage will win in 2028
But the high Tory peak of about 1987 didn't.
Hypervisible
@hypervisible.bsky.social
Who knew steganography would become so important for college profs.
https://bsky.app/profile/hypervisible.bsky.social/post/3lolbew5lkk2e
What happens to Reform if Farage goes under a bus? (One with a big message on the side).
Where does the vote go?
But the Pakistani PM is addressing parliament as well, so we might know more in a few minutes.
That's like the difference between artificial intelligence and intelligence.
Take any remark by me such as “Farage wins in 2028” with a pinch of salt the size of the Salar de Uyuni
Another US fighter jet falls into sea from Truman aircraft carrier, US officials say
https://bsky.app/profile/reuters.com/post/3lokcgaxcpz2g
@patblanchfield.bsky.social
people are dunking on this but $65 million fighter jets only do this when they're very distressed
This is a few years off, but one of my daughters very much likes the idea of going to university there to study marine biology.
Net Zero latest:
Electric car charging points banned from Parliament because of fire risk.
List available on request. Please don't.
But I can report without doubt that if they recruit from the age of 4, focussing especially on male recruitment, they will find no shortage of applicants. I think even age 9/10 is too late.
Fun fact - by applying for the visa, the job gets added to the government vacancies statistics. Because it is never filled, it stays as a vacancy in the stats, for a long while.
'Almost impossible' means 'possible with difficulty'. In the sense of predicting reliably it isn't possible at all, even taking all difficulties into account. It isn't almost impossible, it's impossible.
Nonetheless a fine place to study. Pubs, bars, life, the sea - sailing, swimming, climbing, kitesurfing, hiking - history beauty and a salty old dock. And great oysters
If I am forced by lack of smell to relocate within the UK that’s where I will go
It's an interesting change; apparently when the RAF starts taking prospective pilots in for training as well. In that case, I think the *maximum* age is mid-twenties...
People can say Farage WILL win or he will NOT win but this is principally a way of talking to be vivid and interesting. He very well might but he's far from nailed on.
Fwiw I don't massively disagree with the 'most seats' market which has them at around 2.7 joint favs. So maybe a one in three chance of Farage PM. Oh god. That's easily high enough to be fretting about.
The problem is (and always has been) a combination of really stringent phycometric testing which weeds out 2/3rd of potential applicants before they get anywhere near a train, and the fact that training is really time consuming and expensive, which means all the TOCs are strongly incentivised to do train as few drivers as they can get away with.
They see it as being around Symbolism and Deterrence and Performative Cruelty. It's only a short segment of a few minutes.
It's Michael Howard on turbocharge, and then some. Was it Ann Widdecombe who demanded that female prisoners in hospital giving birth be kept in their handcuffs? It's that sort of thing.
They also have a tendency to defend everything Trump.
No schemes that increase immigration will be supported in the context of 100s of thousands of additional people moving to Britain every year.
Indeed, we have the word "guess" as an alternative to "predict" partly to distinguish between situations where we have lower and higher levels of confidence based on availability of useful data.
I think he is odds on to be PM after the election, but 2.7 Reform feels about right, maybe should be 2.5.
It's a shame Sean is no longer here to defend having just had Dan Hannan hand Sean his arse.
To guess correctly is not 'almost impossible'. A fairly general guess about the outcome of the next election operates within a fairly narrow field of options. A lot fewer options than correctly guessing (not reliably predicting) next week's lottery numbers.
Not sure about the Isle of Man although at one point it was the private property of the monarch