🆕 Jump in Nigel Farage’s approval ratings following last week’s local elections, to give him the highest net approval of the big four leaders with Ed Davey just behind. Meanwhile Badenoch and Starmer see falls.
Actually on topic. It really is the fault of the voters. It should be obvious to all who have the dimmest grasp of politics that Farage, like Trump, is a grifter of the highest order... but there we go...
Perhaps the two are separate issues. In the USA, the voters had a horrible binary choice - Trump or Harris - and regrettably many decided that Trump was the least bad. There is at least a modicum of responsibility with the Democrats for their utter pig-headedness in not even attempting to meet the centre ground of American politics halfway.
In the UK, these days, we have an embarrassment of riches with the parties on offer. But very few of them are offering anything like the voters want on immigration, which is a subject that has been rising in salience for the past two decades while the other parties either tell them they're wrong/racist/stupid or sort-of tell them they're right but then fail to address the issue. If other parties were offering anything like voters want on immigration, there wouldn't be a Reform problem.
In a democracy, if you don't listen to the voters, you cede ground to someone who does - even if that someone is a charlatan.
The problem with our election format is that you need to correctly identify the 2 parties likely to win the seat you are voting in and pick the least worst option
Granted, yes. And also: for, what, 50%+ of us? we live in constituencies which are so safe that it doesn't matter a tiny bit who you vote for. Though that does then give you the freedom to vote for who you like most, rather than who you dislike second least.
Post performance does not match future performance.
If you are in a usually Tory seat that went Labour in 2024 and you don’t want to vote Labour who is the party with the best chance of defeating Labour - it may well be Reform not the Tory party
True, as is @robd's point ... but in Wythenshawe and Sale East, for example, it seems pretty implausible to me it will be anything other than Labour at the next election as it and its predecessors have been every election since 1964. So my view is that you should vote for who you like best, because that will increase that party's chances of becoming a challenger in the long run.
The plastic police were supposed to be the visual presence of the police, leaving the fully trained ones to respond to more difficult / dangerous scenerios. I rarely see a plastic plod.
PCSOs?
They have been neglected in the rebuilding of police numbers in the last few years, and I think some forces have perhaps forgotten how to use them effectively, and what they can achieve.
You can get significantly more PCSOs for the same budget as warranted officers (maybe 3 for 2 - my guestimate), and they can be given particular powers and training by Chief Constables.
Sir Keir has four years to sort out Britain’s problems.
He is fortunate that Reform have peaked very early in the Parliament.
Nigel will soon be under huge pressure to release a full manifesto for government. His default setting will be to mimic Trump and give us British DOGE, British Tariffs etc. He should resist that temptation though: keep it vague and do a Ming-vase strategy. That might be enough to get him over the line.
Good morning fellow pb-ers. Not as warm and welcoming today, but the blue-tit chicks in our TV'd nest are flourishing.
On a slightly bizarre note, and of course o/t, my Facebook page has three postings relating to the 'arrest' of Martin Lewis. Clearly some sort of scam and/or fake news, but to what end, I wonder
That's been around for some time.
I think it's a fake page that looks like a BBC News item, presumably either a phishing front end, or malware infiltration.
Seen the odd one in the past, but the three this morning was exceptional. I deleted them of course and there's nothing specifically directed at me.
I’m seeing them for Steven Bartlett. It’s a crypto scam in that case.
Good morning fellow pb-ers. Not as warm and welcoming today, but the blue-tit chicks in our TV'd nest are flourishing.
On a slightly bizarre note, and of course o/t, my Facebook page has three postings relating to the 'arrest' of Martin Lewis. Clearly some sort of scam and/or fake news, but to what end, I wonder
That's been around for some time.
I think it's a fake page that looks like a BBC News item, presumably either a phishing front end, or malware infiltration.
Seen the odd one in the past, but the three this morning was exceptional. I deleted them of course and there's nothing specifically directed at me.
I’m seeing them for Steven Bartlett. It’s a crypto scam in that case.
Given how he has started embracing the really whacko, becoming hard to tell.with him.
The plastic police were supposed to be the visual presence of the police, leaving the fully trained ones to respond to more difficult / dangerous scenerios. I rarely see a plastic plod.
PCSOs?
They have been neglected in the rebuilding of police numbers in the last few years, and I think some forces have perhaps forgotten how to use them effectively, and what they can achieve.
You can get significantly more PCSOs for the same budget as warranted officers (maybe 3 for 2 - my guestimate), and they can be given particular powers and training by Chief Constables.
My strictly monitored photo quota for today.
One example from Birmingham was I think Operation Parksafe, where it was active citizens making reports of certain offences around risky / dangerous parking and the police and support side was handled mainly by trained PCSOs. The police were able to build up local intelligence which picked up things such as stolen cars dumped for a few days for the thieves to find out if a tracker was fitted, and if someone turned up to recover it.
The plastic police were supposed to be the visual presence of the police, leaving the fully trained ones to respond to more difficult / dangerous scenerios. I rarely see a plastic plod.
PCSOs?
They have been neglected in the rebuilding of police numbers in the last few years, and I think some forces have perhaps forgotten how to use them effectively, and what they can achieve.
You can get significantly more PCSOs for the same budget as warranted officers (maybe 3 for 2 - my guestimate), and they can be given particular powers and training by Chief Constables.
My strictly monitored photo quota for today.
On this I agree. PCSOs were a great idea. Also I used to date a young sexy blonde one in Camden who used to love being REDACTED REDACTED
In particular, they’re good because you don’t need a degree. So, very capable but not scholastic people (like my GF) can get a job keeping the law
Bring back the PCSOs. They were a visibly calming presence in Camden (except for me, who got excited)
I'd absolutely favour a communications company that didn't use AI. Why would I pay a retainer for a PR agent to write a load of meaningless twaddle on AI, rather than understanding my product, and understanding the local press ecosystem, and crafting a purposeful press release using their brain? I politely crack down on it in agencies when I see it. I wouldn't be arsed to read your comments if they were generated by AI, so why would you expect anyone to in a professional context?
The vote in the German parliament was 310 in favour, 307 against, so not only didn't he get the required number, he almost lost the vote itself. That's surprising.
We need them to get a bloody grip. Stability is needed urgently.
The dissenting German MP's are frankly pathetic, to be playing games when a government is required. A secret ballot for legislators is a very bad idea - voters need to know how their elected representatives vote.
There is a very good reason they have a secret vote for Chancellor.
It is because of a certain German Chancellor from the 1930's who did some very bad things.
The logic behind the secret vote is to provide a guardrail, so that even if legislators face intense pressure to vote for a charismatic demagogue, then they can still vote against him in secret.
To apply this to modern times, I think if the US Senate had a similar procedure for secret voting for impeachment, then Trump would have definitely been impeached after January 6. There were a number of Republican Senators who privately told Mitt Romney that they wanted to vote for impeachment but were too scared to do so.
🆕 Jump in Nigel Farage’s approval ratings following last week’s local elections, to give him the highest net approval of the big four leaders with Ed Davey just behind. Meanwhile Badenoch and Starmer see falls.
Actually on topic. It really is the fault of the voters. It should be obvious to all who have the dimmest grasp of politics that Farage, like Trump, is a grifter of the highest order... but there we go...
Perhaps the two are separate issues. In the USA, the voters had a horrible binary choice - Trump or Harris - and regrettably many decided that Trump was the least bad. There is at least a modicum of responsibility with the Democrats for their utter pig-headedness in not even attempting to meet the centre ground of American politics halfway.
In the UK, these days, we have an embarrassment of riches with the parties on offer. But very few of them are offering anything like the voters want on immigration, which is a subject that has been rising in salience for the past two decades while the other parties either tell them they're wrong/racist/stupid or sort-of tell them they're right but then fail to address the issue. If other parties were offering anything like voters want on immigration, there wouldn't be a Reform problem.
In a democracy, if you don't listen to the voters, you cede ground to someone who does - even if that someone is a charlatan.
That's grade A bollocks, about the Democrats "not even attempting to meet the centre ground of American politics halfway." Harris was very centrist. The Republicans sought to portray her otherwise, but they would have done that even if the Democrats had stood the corpse of Ronald Reagan.
The plastic police were supposed to be the visual presence of the police, leaving the fully trained ones to respond to more difficult / dangerous scenerios. I rarely see a plastic plod.
PCSOs?
They have been neglected in the rebuilding of police numbers in the last few years, and I think some forces have perhaps forgotten how to use them effectively, and what they can achieve.
You can get significantly more PCSOs for the same budget as warranted officers (maybe 3 for 2 - my guestimate), and they can be given particular powers and training by Chief Constables.
My strictly monitored photo quota for today.
One example from Birmingham was I think Operation Parksafe, where it was active citizens making reports of certain offences around risky / dangerous parking and the police and support side was handled mainly by trained PCSOs. The police were able to build up local intelligence which picked up things such as stolen cars dumped for a few days for the thieves to find out if a tracker was fitted, and if someone turned up to recover it.
It's police staff who process dashcam footage, and special constables who patrol Edinburgh's path network on bicycles. I think this is answer - enable highly targeted professional police work in rough areas; wider deterrence by a different group of people.
I also think we should have the equivalent of a US Forest Service to protect the environment and rural communities - 15,000 sheep killed by dogs a year etc etc. Preferably on horseback, cos it's cool.
Parties can't justify actions that run counter to their values. Inexplicably Labour plans to cut £4500 a year from a million disabled people. Focus groups are revolted when they hear that people who can’t wash below their waist will lose benefits.
🆕 Jump in Nigel Farage’s approval ratings following last week’s local elections, to give him the highest net approval of the big four leaders with Ed Davey just behind. Meanwhile Badenoch and Starmer see falls.
Actually on topic. It really is the fault of the voters. It should be obvious to all who have the dimmest grasp of politics that Farage, like Trump, is a grifter of the highest order... but there we go...
Perhaps the two are separate issues. In the USA, the voters had a horrible binary choice - Trump or Harris - and regrettably many decided that Trump was the least bad. There is at least a modicum of responsibility with the Democrats for their utter pig-headedness in not even attempting to meet the centre ground of American politics halfway.
In the UK, these days, we have an embarrassment of riches with the parties on offer. But very few of them are offering anything like the voters want on immigration, which is a subject that has been rising in salience for the past two decades while the other parties either tell them they're wrong/racist/stupid or sort-of tell them they're right but then fail to address the issue. If other parties were offering anything like voters want on immigration, there wouldn't be a Reform problem.
In a democracy, if you don't listen to the voters, you cede ground to someone who does - even if that someone is a charlatan.
That's grade A bollocks, about the Democrats "not even attempting to meet the centre ground of American politics halfway." Harris was very centrist. The Republicans sought to portray her otherwise, but they would have done that even if the Democrats had stood the corpse of Ronald Reagan.
Harris's politics are what we would call 'Centrist Dad'. Which is not particularly close to the centre ground of US politics (or indeed UK politics)
Not sure Dubai and Singapore are equivalents. Son lived there for a while and I knew a long term resident who had a business there. Dubai was described as a rogues heaven. You could almost do anything as long as you knew the right people. Has lots of Russians who in the long-term resident's view were thugs and pirates.
🆕 Jump in Nigel Farage’s approval ratings following last week’s local elections, to give him the highest net approval of the big four leaders with Ed Davey just behind. Meanwhile Badenoch and Starmer see falls.
Actually on topic. It really is the fault of the voters. It should be obvious to all who have the dimmest grasp of politics that Farage, like Trump, is a grifter of the highest order... but there we go...
Perhaps the two are separate issues. In the USA, the voters had a horrible binary choice - Trump or Harris - and regrettably many decided that Trump was the least bad. There is at least a modicum of responsibility with the Democrats for their utter pig-headedness in not even attempting to meet the centre ground of American politics halfway.
In the UK, these days, we have an embarrassment of riches with the parties on offer. But very few of them are offering anything like the voters want on immigration, which is a subject that has been rising in salience for the past two decades while the other parties either tell them they're wrong/racist/stupid or sort-of tell them they're right but then fail to address the issue. If other parties were offering anything like voters want on immigration, there wouldn't be a Reform problem.
In a democracy, if you don't listen to the voters, you cede ground to someone who does - even if that someone is a charlatan.
Americans didn't have a horrible choice. They had a right* choice and a wrong choice. They went for the wrong choice when it should have been clear to everyone it was the wrong choice.
Maybe it's a bit less binary in the UK where we have a number of poor choices, but even so we should go for the least bad one.
* Right and wrong are empirical terms here, not value judgements. I defy anyone to say Trump's administration is better, as it turned out, than Harris's would have been, or better than Biden's actually was.
The vote in the German parliament was 310 in favour, 307 against, so not only didn't he get the required number, he almost lost the vote itself. That's surprising.
There's lots of angry politicians on the radio at the moment. There are many SPD politcians who dislike Merz, they will probably vote for him in the second round, but wanted to give him a kick up the arse in the first vote
That's what I would expect to happen. 2nd round now expected at 3.15pm CET.
The vote in the German parliament was 310 in favour, 307 against, so not only didn't he get the required number, he almost lost the vote itself. That's surprising.
There's lots of angry politicians on the radio at the moment. There are many SPD politcians who dislike Merz, they will probably vote for him in the second round, but wanted to give him a kick up the arse in the first vote
That's what I would expect to happen. 2nd round now expected at 3.15pm CET.
Of course the AfD aren't going to "lend" any votes to Merz or be suspected of doing so. Nor is the CDU going to have anything to do with the AfD. Some posters on here live in a fantasy world!
Sir Keir has four years to sort out Britain’s problems.
He is fortunate that Reform have peaked very early in the Parliament.
In your opinion.
Well, yes, but if we limited PB to verifiable facts we'd be stuck
I meant specifically about the claim that Reform have peaked. There is little to no evidence of this, yet it is stated as if it were a fact.
Are we at peak 'CHB telling everyone Reform has peaked' yet?
At least it can only happen 5 times a day.
Is this a self-imposed limitation from CHB on 5 posts a day? If so, it sounds a sensible response to some of the issues he's faced in the past. And I'd say it's led to an overall increase in the average quality of his posts. I wonder what drivel of my own I'd cut out if I was under the same limitations?
The vote in the German parliament was 310 in favour, 307 against, so not only didn't he get the required number, he almost lost the vote itself. That's surprising.
There's lots of angry politicians on the radio at the moment. There are many SPD politcians who dislike Merz, they will probably vote for him in the second round, but wanted to give him a kick up the arse in the first vote
That's what I would expect to happen. 2nd round now expected at 3.15pm CET.
In the circumstances, and whatever you think of Merz, it seems self indulgent stupidity.
The vote in the German parliament was 310 in favour, 307 against, so not only didn't he get the required number, he almost lost the vote itself. That's surprising.
We need them to get a bloody grip. Stability is needed urgently.
The dissenting German MP's are frankly pathetic, to be playing games when a government is required. A secret ballot for legislators is a very bad idea - voters need to know how their elected representatives vote.
There is a very good reason they have a secret vote for Chancellor.
It is because of a certain German Chancellor from the 1930's who did some very bad things.
The logic behind the secret vote is to provide a guardrail, so that even if legislators face intense pressure to vote for a charismatic demagogue, then they can still vote against him in secret.
To apply this to modern times, I think if the US Senate had a similar procedure for secret voting for impeachment, then Trump would have definitely been impeached after January 6. There were a number of Republican Senators who privately told Mitt Romney that they wanted to vote for impeachment but were too scared to do so.
A completely private vote is the only way to 99% ensure people can do awkward things while in the public gaze
And in the US that means they could say no without fear of a gun wielding Trump supporter turning up at their home at 3am
Parties can't justify actions that run counter to their values. Inexplicably Labour plans to cut £4500 a year from a million disabled people. Focus groups are revolted when they hear that people who can’t wash below their waist will lose benefits.
That’s why they’re also rushing Assisted Suicide into law, at the same time, and - get this - state enabled death is going to be diverse and inclusive and will benefit the poor! I kid thee not
“If you needed more evidence of why the word ‘inclusive’ has been stripped of all genuine meaning, it’s now being used by the lobby group Dignity in Dying in the most grim fashion.
Everyone is encouraged to take their life: to hell with boring safeguards!
Not sure Dubai and Singapore are equivalents. Son lived there for a while and I knew a long term resident who had a business there. Dubai was described as a rogues heaven. You could almost do anything as long as you knew the right people. Has lots of Russians who in the long-term resident's view were thugs and pirates.
Don't think Singapore has the same issues.
Dubai gets a surprisingly easy pass from liberal democracies given how much it facilitates organised crime and sanctions busting and has a politically unhelpful government.
And this, if true, sets out how serious Reform are about energy security and public spending.
Reform are planning on mounting a wave of lawsuits to delay solar farms and battery storage projects.
Paradoxically, one of the most valuable things Labour can do for its clean energy agenda is leave (or at least, aggressively reinterpret) an environmental treaty.
If the lawsuits are waged on 'environmental grounds', they will be protected by the Aarhus Treaty Cost Protection Caps.
This means the maximum legal costs they can be forced to pay (if unsuccessful) is just £10,000. This is the case even though legal challenges against infrastructure can cost developers (and taxpayers) millions. .. https://x.com/Sam_Dumitriu/status/1919677241975255133
Sir Keir has four years to sort out Britain’s problems.
He is fortunate that Reform have peaked very early in the Parliament.
In your opinion.
Well, yes, but if we limited PB to verifiable facts we'd be stuck
I meant specifically about the claim that Reform have peaked. There is little to no evidence of this, yet it is stated as if it were a fact.
Are we at peak 'CHB telling everyone Reform has peaked' yet?
At least it can only happen 5 times a day.
Is this a self-imposed limitation from CHB on 5 posts a day? If so, it sounds a sensible response to some of the issues he's faced in the past. And I'd say it's led to an overall increase in the average quality of his posts. I wonder what drivel of my own I'd cut out if I was under the same limitations?
I thinks its two things, not mutually exclusive. One is limiting the posting for his benefit. However the other is a bit LOOK AT ME - the inclusion of the post counter (2/5). You can limit your posting without flagging it up.
I rather dislike it because one of the strengths of PB is a back and forth. Just posting and running does not allow that to happen.
Parties can't justify actions that run counter to their values. Inexplicably Labour plans to cut £4500 a year from a million disabled people. Focus groups are revolted when they hear that people who can’t wash below their waist will lose benefits.
That’s why they’re also rushing Assisted Suicide into law, at the same time, and - get this - state enabled death is going to be diverse and inclusive and will benefit the poor! I kid thee not
“If you needed more evidence of why the word ‘inclusive’ has been stripped of all genuine meaning, it’s now being used by the lobby group Dignity in Dying in the most grim fashion.
Everyone is encouraged to take their life: to hell with boring safeguards!
The vote in the German parliament was 310 in favour, 307 against, so not only didn't he get the required number, he almost lost the vote itself. That's surprising.
There's lots of angry politicians on the radio at the moment. There are many SPD politcians who dislike Merz, they will probably vote for him in the second round, but wanted to give him a kick up the arse in the first vote
That's what I would expect to happen. 2nd round now expected at 3.15pm CET.
In the circumstances, and whatever you think of Merz, it seems self indulgent stupidity.
The Germans have managed to find a chancellor who is - at first glance - even more dislikeable than Scholz. This is nothing to do with politics, just the mien. A face you want to slap
Sir Keir has four years to sort out Britain’s problems.
He is fortunate that Reform have peaked very early in the Parliament.
In your opinion.
Well, yes, but if we limited PB to verifiable facts we'd be stuck
I meant specifically about the claim that Reform have peaked. There is little to no evidence of this, yet it is stated as if it were a fact.
Are we at peak 'CHB telling everyone Reform has peaked' yet?
At least it can only happen 5 times a day.
Is this a self-imposed limitation from CHB on 5 posts a day? If so, it sounds a sensible response to some of the issues he's faced in the past. And I'd say it's led to an overall increase in the average quality of his posts. I wonder what drivel of my own I'd cut out if I was under the same limitations?
I thinks its two things, not mutually exclusive. One is limiting the posting for his benefit. However the other is a bit LOOK AT ME - the inclusion of the post counter (2/5). You can limit your posting without flagging it up.
I rather dislike it because one of the strengths of PB is a back and forth. Just posting and running does not allow that to happen.
It does if you catch him on 1or 2/5 - which contrary to what you say, is useful.
The vote in the German parliament was 310 in favour, 307 against, so not only didn't he get the required number, he almost lost the vote itself. That's surprising.
There's lots of angry politicians on the radio at the moment. There are many SPD politcians who dislike Merz, they will probably vote for him in the second round, but wanted to give him a kick up the arse in the first vote
That's what I would expect to happen. 2nd round now expected at 3.15pm CET.
In the circumstances, and whatever you think of Merz, it seems self indulgent stupidity.
It's perhaps a sign of more trouble to come, but if he wins the second vote everyone will have forgotten this kerfuffle by next week.
If Merz hadn't pissed everyone off, and broken his promises even before taking office, he would have avoided this embarrassment.
It's not as if he's like Boris Johnson - completely untrustworthy but at least for a while a vote-winner. Merz is completely untrustworthy and a vote loser, and there are plenty in the CDU who really don't like him. It would be no surprise at all if some of the missing votes were from his own party.
'No point in peace talks' say Hamas, 'as Israel plans to capture all of Gaza'. Well yes, but doesn't Hamas plan to murder all Jews? Sauce for the goose and all that,
Sir Keir has four years to sort out Britain’s problems.
He is fortunate that Reform have peaked very early in the Parliament.
In your opinion.
Well, yes, but if we limited PB to verifiable facts we'd be stuck
I meant specifically about the claim that Reform have peaked. There is little to no evidence of this, yet it is stated as if it were a fact.
Are we at peak 'CHB telling everyone Reform has peaked' yet?
At least it can only happen 5 times a day.
Is this a self-imposed limitation from CHB on 5 posts a day? If so, it sounds a sensible response to some of the issues he's faced in the past. And I'd say it's led to an overall increase in the average quality of his posts. I wonder what drivel of my own I'd cut out if I was under the same limitations?
I thinks its two things, not mutually exclusive. One is limiting the posting for his benefit. However the other is a bit LOOK AT ME - the inclusion of the post counter (2/5). You can limit your posting without flagging it up.
I rather dislike it because one of the strengths of PB is a back and forth. Just posting and running does not allow that to happen.
It does if you catch him on 1or 2/5 - which contrary to what you say, is useful.
Not my experience - I have not seen a single answer to a reply to any of the numbered posts.
Parties can't justify actions that run counter to their values. Inexplicably Labour plans to cut £4500 a year from a million disabled people. Focus groups are revolted when they hear that people who can’t wash below their waist will lose benefits.
That’s why they’re also rushing Assisted Suicide into law, at the same time, and - get this - state enabled death is going to be diverse and inclusive and will benefit the poor! I kid thee not
“If you needed more evidence of why the word ‘inclusive’ has been stripped of all genuine meaning, it’s now being used by the lobby group Dignity in Dying in the most grim fashion.
Everyone is encouraged to take their life: to hell with boring safeguards!
Seriously. Check the original tweet. Extraordinary
If you accept the argument that helping people to kill themselves is a good thing, then it makes sense to ensure that it is done in an equitable way.
Pause
Obviously that's a big if.
It’s the phrasing which is so delicious. Somehow, more death and state-enabled suicide will have “a positive impact on those from lower socioeconomic backgrounds”
Sir Keir has four years to sort out Britain’s problems.
He is fortunate that Reform have peaked very early in the Parliament.
In your opinion.
Well, yes, but if we limited PB to verifiable facts we'd be stuck
I meant specifically about the claim that Reform have peaked. There is little to no evidence of this, yet it is stated as if it were a fact.
Are we at peak 'CHB telling everyone Reform has peaked' yet?
At least it can only happen 5 times a day.
Is this a self-imposed limitation from CHB on 5 posts a day? If so, it sounds a sensible response to some of the issues he's faced in the past. And I'd say it's led to an overall increase in the average quality of his posts. I wonder what drivel of my own I'd cut out if I was under the same limitations?
If only the PB RefCon faithful could evict all left of Attila the Hun posters.
The vote in the German parliament was 310 in favour, 307 against, so not only didn't he get the required number, he almost lost the vote itself. That's surprising.
There's lots of angry politicians on the radio at the moment. There are many SPD politcians who dislike Merz, they will probably vote for him in the second round, but wanted to give him a kick up the arse in the first vote
That's what I would expect to happen. 2nd round now expected at 3.15pm CET.
Of course the AfD aren't going to "lend" any votes to Merz or be suspected of doing so. Nor is the CDU going to have anything to do with the AfD. Some posters on here live in a fantasy world!
Yes, it's total fantasy that Merz would ever do a deal with the AfD.
If he continues to face problems with SPD rebels, then he'll bring the Greens into a 'Kenya Coalition' (CDU + SPD + Greens).
Sir Keir has four years to sort out Britain’s problems.
He is fortunate that Reform have peaked very early in the Parliament.
In your opinion.
Well, yes, but if we limited PB to verifiable facts we'd be stuck
I meant specifically about the claim that Reform have peaked. There is little to no evidence of this, yet it is stated as if it were a fact.
Are we at peak 'CHB telling everyone Reform has peaked' yet?
At least it can only happen 5 times a day.
Is this a self-imposed limitation from CHB on 5 posts a day? If so, it sounds a sensible response to some of the issues he's faced in the past. And I'd say it's led to an overall increase in the average quality of his posts. I wonder what drivel of my own I'd cut out if I was under the same limitations?
I thinks its two things, not mutually exclusive. One is limiting the posting for his benefit. However the other is a bit LOOK AT ME - the inclusion of the post counter (2/5). You can limit your posting without flagging it up.
I rather dislike it because one of the strengths of PB is a back and forth. Just posting and running does not allow that to happen.
Yes, though in many cases the back and forth just goes back and forth and back and forth without us really moving the argument on. I am happy to accept CHB's new approach as one of the quirks of the site.
Sir Keir has four years to sort out Britain’s problems.
He is fortunate that Reform have peaked very early in the Parliament.
I have no reason to believe that we have reached Peak Reform voting intention.
Yes before last Thursday the view was that Reform were stuck in the mid-20s. Then we had 32% in the locals......
Given where the local elections were it’s not surprising that Reform did well. If the election had only been in the west, the Lib Dems would also look like they were doing massively better than national polling suggested
Not sure Dubai and Singapore are equivalents. Son lived there for a while and I knew a long term resident who had a business there. Dubai was described as a rogues heaven. You could almost do anything as long as you knew the right people. Has lots of Russians who in the long-term resident's view were thugs and pirates.
Don't think Singapore has the same issues.
Is Dubai still the preferred base of many Mumbai mafia bosses?
With Labour apparently following the Cameron playbook, have they won over any former moderate voters who would now pick Labour over Reform?
This may be useful in tight contests. The New Statesmen opines this be the case.
Why don't you do a straw poll of PB? BG North Wales, Marquee Mark, David L are all very moderate Tories, ask them if they would lend their vote to Sir in order to keep Reform out. Some of them might do?
Good morning
I would not vote for Starmer under any circumstances
Under any circumstances?
Suppose the next election resolved into a Farage-Starmer showdown.
Or, more fancifully, BNP-Starmer? There's always a point where a voter has to find a clothes peg for their nose.
And yes, if Romford is a Ref-Con fight next time, the appalling Andrew Rosindell has my vote. Even though Buster the bull terrier was always the brains of the operation, and he's dead now.
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Sir Keir has four years to sort out Britain’s problems.
He is fortunate that Reform have peaked very early in the Parliament.
I have no reason to believe that we have reached Peak Reform voting intention.
Yes before last Thursday the view was that Reform were stuck in the mid-20s. Then we had 32% in the locals......
Interestingly Reform were taking wards in Bassetlaw that even Boris at his peak never got close to like the sweep of Worksop and Blyth/Harworth (My ward). The current reach into working class provincial England is far more into the red wall than 2019 Boris.
Sir Keir has four years to sort out Britain’s problems.
He is fortunate that Reform have peaked very early in the Parliament.
I have no reason to believe that we have reached Peak Reform voting intention.
Yes before last Thursday the view was that Reform were stuck in the mid-20s. Then we had 32% in the locals......
Given where the local elections were it’s not surprising that Reform did well. If the election had only been in the west, the Lib Dems would also look like they were doing massively better than national polling suggested
I would raise a counterpoint to that.
Yes, the areas voting on Thursday tended to be areas the Tories traditionally do well in. They trend rural over urban. But we did not quite know that Reform would have the strength to win seats outside of eastern Brexit-voter-heavy strongholds, which they did.
When we start to factor in the unitary /metropolitan authorities next year, we’ll see a lot more traditionally red-wall voting areas added to the mix, and I wouldn’t like to suggest Reform are going to do markedly poorer in those.
Sir Keir has four years to sort out Britain’s problems.
He is fortunate that Reform have peaked very early in the Parliament.
In your opinion.
Well, yes, but if we limited PB to verifiable facts we'd be stuck
I meant specifically about the claim that Reform have peaked. There is little to no evidence of this, yet it is stated as if it were a fact.
Are we at peak 'CHB telling everyone Reform has peaked' yet?
At least it can only happen 5 times a day.
Is this a self-imposed limitation from CHB on 5 posts a day? If so, it sounds a sensible response to some of the issues he's faced in the past. And I'd say it's led to an overall increase in the average quality of his posts. I wonder what drivel of my own I'd cut out if I was under the same limitations?
If only the PB RefCon faithful could evict all left of Attila the Hun posters.
Is this a dig at me? Or a defence of CHB? Or both, or neither? For the purposes of clarity, I like both CHB's approach and his posts.
Sir Keir has four years to sort out Britain’s problems.
He is fortunate that Reform have peaked very early in the Parliament.
In your opinion.
Well, yes, but if we limited PB to verifiable facts we'd be stuck
I meant specifically about the claim that Reform have peaked. There is little to no evidence of this, yet it is stated as if it were a fact.
Are we at peak 'CHB telling everyone Reform has peaked' yet?
At least it can only happen 5 times a day.
Is this a self-imposed limitation from CHB on 5 posts a day? If so, it sounds a sensible response to some of the issues he's faced in the past. And I'd say it's led to an overall increase in the average quality of his posts. I wonder what drivel of my own I'd cut out if I was under the same limitations?
I thinks its two things, not mutually exclusive. One is limiting the posting for his benefit. However the other is a bit LOOK AT ME - the inclusion of the post counter (2/5). You can limit your posting without flagging it up.
I rather dislike it because one of the strengths of PB is a back and forth. Just posting and running does not allow that to happen.
Yes, though in many cases the back and forth just goes back and forth and back and forth without us really moving the argument on. I am happy to accept CHB's new approach as one of the quirks of the site.
Its certainly true that there are many on here (and in real life) with strongly held opinions, and often it feels like no movement can be made. And yet.
I sometimes reflect on what people have posted and can change my mind on things. At its best PB is an education. For instance I now fully understand how the BBC can post rolling updates on trials (as with the Sycamore Gap trial) yet I cannot comment about guilt/innocence/plausibility of defence etc... I think during covid there was some superb posting, amid the dross. And don't forget that PB is open to the world - I am sure more read PB than comment, and who knows what people take away from an afternoon of frenzied political discourse heavily disguised as cricket chat, deltic appreciation and banning threats for poor musical appreciation posting?
Sir Keir has four years to sort out Britain’s problems.
He is fortunate that Reform have peaked very early in the Parliament.
I have no reason to believe that we have reached Peak Reform voting intention.
Yes before last Thursday the view was that Reform were stuck in the mid-20s. Then we had 32% in the locals......
Given where the local elections were it’s not surprising that Reform did well. If the election had only been in the west, the Lib Dems would also look like they were doing massively better than national polling suggested
Hmmm. Where did reform do so badly? They were strong in the SW for example. Their breadth of appeal goes way beyond the 'sandalistas.'
The reality for Sir Keir is that he is in government and has the ability to do things.
It’s very obvious what he needs to do in order to win back support, that is reducing immigration as the number one priority and stopping the boats.
He has the ability to do that. Whether he does is another question. But the voters have told him.
I do not think like some others that the election is over. I still think Labour are favourites to win but I am happy to re-assess again in three years time when I will be happy to call a loss for them if it’s coming. But many here have never supported them since the day they were elected.
I haven’t called Reform voters thick or racist, I have addressed the issues they’ve raised and explain what to do about them in my view.
But what I will not support is a party that refuses to build. Labour is the only party that has identified this as a problem so they retain my vote on that basis. Reform want to stop pylons and renewable energy being built. It's a very simple question for the Reform supporters, why do you oppose things being built when they provide jobs?
I can totally sympathise with the argument for slowing net zero work but if a company wants to build infrastructure on your patch, why on Earth would you oppose it, whatever it is? That Tweet from Tice really was dense. I thought until then they'd actually changed but they really have not.
The vote in the German parliament was 310 in favour, 307 against, so not only didn't he get the required number, he almost lost the vote itself. That's surprising.
There's lots of angry politicians on the radio at the moment. There are many SPD politcians who dislike Merz, they will probably vote for him in the second round, but wanted to give him a kick up the arse in the first vote
As someone else might have mentioned earlier, if it's obvious he's going to win on the second vote, there must be a temptation for the likes of the AfD to also vote for him in order to say "You only won because of us" even if it isn't technically true.
The reality for Sir Keir is that he is in government and has the ability to do things.
It’s very obvious what he needs to do in order to win back support, that is reducing immigration as the number one priority and stopping the boats.
He has the ability to do that. Whether he does is another question. But the voters have told him.
I do not think like some others that the election is over. I still think Labour are favourites to win but I am happy to re-assess again in three years time when I will be happy to call a loss for them if it’s coming. But many here have never supported them since the day they were elected.
I haven’t called Reform voters thick or racist, I have addressed the issues they’ve raised and explain what to do about them in my view.
But what I will not support is a party that refuses to build. Labour is the only party that has identified this as a problem so they retain my vote on that basis. Reform want to stop pylons and renewable energy being built. Why?
Genuine question - who believes that the election (in 2029?) is over? I think we are in a superbly interesting time in politics where everything is up in the air. I don't believe that Labour have won or lost the next election. In the immortal words - its too early to tell.
The vote in the German parliament was 310 in favour, 307 against, so not only didn't he get the required number, he almost lost the vote itself. That's surprising.
There's lots of angry politicians on the radio at the moment. There are many SPD politcians who dislike Merz, they will probably vote for him in the second round, but wanted to give him a kick up the arse in the first vote
That's what I would expect to happen. 2nd round now expected at 3.15pm CET.
Of course the AfD aren't going to "lend" any votes to Merz or be suspected of doing so. Nor is the CDU going to have anything to do with the AfD. Some posters on here live in a fantasy world!
Yes, it's total fantasy that Merz would ever do a deal with the AfD.
If he continues to face problems with SPD rebels, then he'll bring the Greens into a 'Kenya Coalition' (CDU + SPD + Greens).
Even before submitting the motion for a second vote today, the CDU made sure it would get the 2 thirds majority needed without any AfD votes. Which meant coming to an agreement with the Left.
Sir Keir has four years to sort out Britain’s problems.
He is fortunate that Reform have peaked very early in the Parliament.
Why do you think they've peaked? Genuine question.
They might not, but I'd guess the point of the comment is that the election result kick up the arse might elicit a bit more urgency from a government which seems rather lacking in that quality.
The reality for Sir Keir is that he is in government and has the ability to do things.
It’s very obvious what he needs to do in order to win back support, that is reducing immigration as the number one priority and stopping the boats.
He has the ability to do that. Whether he does is another question. But the voters have told him.
I do not think like some others that the election is over. I still think Labour are favourites to win but I am happy to re-assess again in three years time when I will be happy to call a loss for them if it’s coming. But many here have never supported them since the day they were elected.
I haven’t called Reform voters thick or racist, I have addressed the issues they’ve raised and explain what to do about them in my view.
But what I will not support is a party that refuses to build. Labour is the only party that has identified this as a problem so they retain my vote on that basis. Reform want to stop pylons and renewable energy being built. Why?
Genuine question - who believes that the election (in 2029?) is over? I think we are in a superbly interesting time in politics where everything is up in the air. I don't believe that Labour have won or lost the next election. In the immortal words - its too early to tell.
Parties can't justify actions that run counter to their values. Inexplicably Labour plans to cut £4500 a year from a million disabled people. Focus groups are revolted when they hear that people who can’t wash below their waist will lose benefits.
That’s why they’re also rushing Assisted Suicide into law, at the same time, and - get this - state enabled death is going to be diverse and inclusive and will benefit the poor! I kid thee not
“If you needed more evidence of why the word ‘inclusive’ has been stripped of all genuine meaning, it’s now being used by the lobby group Dignity in Dying in the most grim fashion.
Everyone is encouraged to take their life: to hell with boring safeguards!
Seriously. Check the original tweet. Extraordinary
If you accept the argument that helping people to kill themselves is a good thing, then it makes sense to ensure that it is done in an equitable way.
Pause
Obviously that's a big if.
Government makes the best part of £10,000 per. The pressure to get the system firing on all cylinders will be immense - all couched in weasel words of course.
The vote in the German parliament was 310 in favour, 307 against, so not only didn't he get the required number, he almost lost the vote itself. That's surprising.
There's lots of angry politicians on the radio at the moment. There are many SPD politcians who dislike Merz, they will probably vote for him in the second round, but wanted to give him a kick up the arse in the first vote
That's what I would expect to happen. 2nd round now expected at 3.15pm CET.
In the circumstances, and whatever you think of Merz, it seems self indulgent stupidity.
It's perhaps a sign of more trouble to come, but if he wins the second vote everyone will have forgotten this kerfuffle by next week.
If Merz hadn't pissed everyone off, and broken his promises even before taking office, he would have avoided this embarrassment.
It's not as if he's like Boris Johnson - completely untrustworthy but at least for a while a vote-winner. Merz is completely untrustworthy and a vote loser, and there are plenty in the CDU who really don't like him. It would be no surprise at all if some of the missing votes were from his own party.
I get why it might have happened. It just seems counterproductive from the POV of anyone who might end up backing his coalition.
Unless they actually want another snap election - which seems equally foolish.
Sir Keir has four years to sort out Britain’s problems.
He is fortunate that Reform have peaked very early in the Parliament.
I have no reason to believe that we have reached Peak Reform voting intention.
Yes before last Thursday the view was that Reform were stuck in the mid-20s. Then we had 32% in the locals......
Given where the local elections were it’s not surprising that Reform did well. If the election had only been in the west, the Lib Dems would also look like they were doing massively better than national polling suggested
I would raise a counterpoint to that.
Yes, the areas voting on Thursday tended to be areas the Tories traditionally do well in. They trend rural over urban. But we did not quite know that Reform would have the strength to win seats outside of eastern Brexit-voter-heavy strongholds, which they did.
When we start to factor in the unitary /metropolitan authorities next year, we’ll see a lot more traditionally red-wall voting areas added to the mix, and I wouldn’t like to suggest Reform are going to do markedly poorer in those.
Difficult to predict ahead but if people feel the same next year I'd expect another bloodbath - possibly even in London.
The vote in the German parliament was 310 in favour, 307 against, so not only didn't he get the required number, he almost lost the vote itself. That's surprising.
There's lots of angry politicians on the radio at the moment. There are many SPD politcians who dislike Merz, they will probably vote for him in the second round, but wanted to give him a kick up the arse in the first vote
That's what I would expect to happen. 2nd round now expected at 3.15pm CET.
In the circumstances, and whatever you think of Merz, it seems self indulgent stupidity.
It's perhaps a sign of more trouble to come, but if he wins the second vote everyone will have forgotten this kerfuffle by next week.
If Merz hadn't pissed everyone off, and broken his promises even before taking office, he would have avoided this embarrassment.
It's not as if he's like Boris Johnson - completely untrustworthy but at least for a while a vote-winner. Merz is completely untrustworthy and a vote loser, and there are plenty in the CDU who really don't like him. It would be no surprise at all if some of the missing votes were from his own party.
I get why it might have happened. It just seems counterproductive from the POV of anyone who might end up backing his coalition.
Unless they actually want another snap election - which seems equally foolish.
No doubt. But it's likely a few individuals who thought Merz had the votes even without their individual vote, I suspect, rather than anything organised. Hence the immediate second vote.
So the government response to the UK film industry getting hammered with tariffs is they’re disappointed!
It’s beyond embarrassing now .
Given the UK and US are currently engaged in detailed trade negotiations it's probably not the best time to go in guns blazing, however tempting. I suspect the foreign film tariff will largely be a damp squib in any case, especially as Hollywood doesn't actually want it.
Sir Keir has four years to sort out Britain’s problems.
He is fortunate that Reform have peaked very early in the Parliament.
I have no reason to believe that we have reached Peak Reform voting intention.
Yes before last Thursday the view was that Reform were stuck in the mid-20s. Then we had 32% in the locals......
Given where the local elections were it’s not surprising that Reform did well. If the election had only been in the west, the Lib Dems would also look like they were doing massively better than national polling suggested
I would raise a counterpoint to that.
Yes, the areas voting on Thursday tended to be areas the Tories traditionally do well in. They trend rural over urban. But we did not quite know that Reform would have the strength to win seats outside of eastern Brexit-voter-heavy strongholds, which they did.
When we start to factor in the unitary /metropolitan authorities next year, we’ll see a lot more traditionally red-wall voting areas added to the mix, and I wouldn’t like to suggest Reform are going to do markedly poorer in those.
Difficult to predict ahead but if people feel the same next year I'd expect another bloodbath - possibly even in London.
Labour will lose a lot of votes to the Lib Dem’s and Greens in London , not so much to Reform so the results are going to be very volatile .
The reality for Sir Keir is that he is in government and has the ability to do things.
It’s very obvious what he needs to do in order to win back support, that is reducing immigration as the number one priority and stopping the boats.
He has the ability to do that. Whether he does is another question. But the voters have told him.
I do not think like some others that the election is over. I still think Labour are favourites to win but I am happy to re-assess again in three years time when I will be happy to call a loss for them if it’s coming. But many here have never supported them since the day they were elected.
I haven’t called Reform voters thick or racist, I have addressed the issues they’ve raised and explain what to do about them in my view.
But what I will not support is a party that refuses to build. Labour is the only party that has identified this as a problem so they retain my vote on that basis. Reform want to stop pylons and renewable energy being built. It's a very simple question for the Reform supporters, why do you oppose things being built when they provide jobs?
I can totally sympathise with the argument for slowing net zero work but if a company wants to build infrastructure on your patch, why on Earth would you oppose it, whatever it is? That Tweet from Tice really was dense. I thought until then they'd actually changed but they really have not.
Reform want to stop solar farms as they see agriculture land for food, and the pylons are disliked virtually by everyone who is effected not least dur to the reduction in their house price
I am not sure if the Lib Dems will join the objections but I wouldn't be surprised
The reality for Sir Keir is that he is in government and has the ability to do things.
It’s very obvious what he needs to do in order to win back support, that is reducing immigration as the number one priority and stopping the boats.
He has the ability to do that. Whether he does is another question. But the voters have told him.
I do not think like some others that the election is over. I still think Labour are favourites to win but I am happy to re-assess again in three years time when I will be happy to call a loss for them if it’s coming. But many here have never supported them since the day they were elected.
I haven’t called Reform voters thick or racist, I have addressed the issues they’ve raised and explain what to do about them in my view.
But what I will not support is a party that refuses to build. Labour is the only party that has identified this as a problem so they retain my vote on that basis. Reform want to stop pylons and renewable energy being built. It's a very simple question for the Reform supporters, why do you oppose things being built when they provide jobs?
I can totally sympathise with the argument for slowing net zero work but if a company wants to build infrastructure on your patch, why on Earth would you oppose it, whatever it is? That Tweet from Tice really was dense. I thought until then they'd actually changed but they really have not.
Reform want to stop solar farms as they see agriculture land for food, and the pylons are disliked virtually by everyone who is effected not least dur to the reduction in their house price
I am not sure if the Lib Dems will join the objections but I wouldn't be surprised
NIMBYISM has just received rocket boosters
There was some polling out earlier which showed that new Reform voters are 50:50 on Net Zero. I was really surprised by that; the danger of getting too much info off PB.
I think the no solar farms on prime arable land is a defendable position from a food security perspective. But their boomerslop approach to opposing all renewables and infrastructure is possibly an example of them believing their own rhetoric rather than the views of their voter base.
The reality for Sir Keir is that he is in government and has the ability to do things.
It’s very obvious what he needs to do in order to win back support, that is reducing immigration as the number one priority and stopping the boats.
He has the ability to do that. Whether he does is another question. But the voters have told him.
I do not think like some others that the election is over. I still think Labour are favourites to win but I am happy to re-assess again in three years time when I will be happy to call a loss for them if it’s coming. But many here have never supported them since the day they were elected.
I haven’t called Reform voters thick or racist, I have addressed the issues they’ve raised and explain what to do about them in my view.
But what I will not support is a party that refuses to build. Labour is the only party that has identified this as a problem so they retain my vote on that basis. Reform want to stop pylons and renewable energy being built. It's a very simple question for the Reform supporters, why do you oppose things being built when they provide jobs?
I can totally sympathise with the argument for slowing net zero work but if a company wants to build infrastructure on your patch, why on Earth would you oppose it, whatever it is? That Tweet from Tice really was dense. I thought until then they'd actually changed but they really have not.
Reform want to stop solar farms as they see agriculture land for food, and the pylons are disliked virtually by everyone who is effected not least dur to the reduction in their house price
I am not sure if the Lib Dems will join the objections but I wouldn't be surprised
NIMBYISM has just received rocket boosters
There was some polling out earlier which showed that new Reform voters are 50:50 on Net Zero. I was really surprised by that; the danger of getting too much info off PB.
I think the no solar farms on prime arable land is a defendable position from a food security perspective. But their boomerslop approach to opposing all renewables and infrastructure is possibly an example of them believing their own rhetoric rather than the views of their voter base.
To be honest solar panels should be on homes and commercial buildings not farm land
So the government response to the UK film industry getting hammered with tariffs is they’re disappointed!
It’s beyond embarrassing now .
Disagree. Trump is envious of our country.
While he is trying to Make America Great Again, Britain is already Great.
“Perhaps the most interesting of these complex, troubled global attitudes to Europe can be found in the United States. Because if you think Donald Trump, Elon Musk and J.D. Vance are crude American chauvinists, you’re wrong. They may bluster, bark and bind themselves in Old Glory – but deep down they are disappointed children of Europe. They are not rejecting the Old World; they are a Kraft Single grieving Brie de Meaux.
“The modern American right looks across the Atlantic and sees the continent that gave them their ancestors, their laws, their language, their architecture, their religion, their art – and they see it weakening. They see Europe afraid to defend itself, ashamed of its past, unable to define its future. And like furious heirs watching a great family home fall into disrepair, they lash out. So that is what dreadful Kyrgyz cheese tells us about Donald J. Trump. Next I’m going to try the local biscuits. I fear they may not match a chocolate Leibniz.”
Sir Keir has four years to sort out Britain’s problems.
He is fortunate that Reform have peaked very early in the Parliament.
I have no reason to believe that we have reached Peak Reform voting intention.
Yes before last Thursday the view was that Reform were stuck in the mid-20s. Then we had 32% in the locals......
Given where the local elections were it’s not surprising that Reform did well. If the election had only been in the west, the Lib Dems would also look like they were doing massively better than national polling suggested
I would raise a counterpoint to that.
Yes, the areas voting on Thursday tended to be areas the Tories traditionally do well in. They trend rural over urban. But we did not quite know that Reform would have the strength to win seats outside of eastern Brexit-voter-heavy strongholds, which they did.
When we start to factor in the unitary /metropolitan authorities next year, we’ll see a lot more traditionally red-wall voting areas added to the mix, and I wouldn’t like to suggest Reform are going to do markedly poorer in those.
It’s perfectly possible that there are a lot of reform voters which pollsters are ignoring the problem is we don’t know.
The problem is that the local elections on a whole represented 1 type of constituency - and I think there is a limit as to what we can extrapolate from that
Sir Keir has four years to sort out Britain’s problems.
He is fortunate that Reform have peaked very early in the Parliament.
I have no reason to believe that we have reached Peak Reform voting intention.
Yes before last Thursday the view was that Reform were stuck in the mid-20s. Then we had 32% in the locals......
Given where the local elections were it’s not surprising that Reform did well. If the election had only been in the west, the Lib Dems would also look like they were doing massively better than national polling suggested
I would raise a counterpoint to that.
Yes, the areas voting on Thursday tended to be areas the Tories traditionally do well in. They trend rural over urban. But we did not quite know that Reform would have the strength to win seats outside of eastern Brexit-voter-heavy strongholds, which they did.
When we start to factor in the unitary /metropolitan authorities next year, we’ll see a lot more traditionally red-wall voting areas added to the mix, and I wouldn’t like to suggest Reform are going to do markedly poorer in those.
Difficult to predict ahead but if people feel the same next year I'd expect another bloodbath - possibly even in London.
Labour will lose a lot of votes to the Lib Dem’s and Greens in London , not so much to Reform so the results are going to be very volatile .
The outer boroughs to the north, east and southeast could swing heavily to Reform.
So the government response to the UK film industry getting hammered with tariffs is they’re disappointed!
It’s beyond embarrassing now .
Given the UK and US are currently engaged in detailed trade negotiations it's probably not the best time to go in guns blazing, however tempting. I suspect the foreign film tariff will largely be a damp squib in any case, especially as Hollywood doesn't actually want it.
Indeed.
Plus for someone who is supposedly teetotal, Trump behaves very much like a manic depressive alcoholic and confused old man.
Going from zero to 100 on random topics then getting distracted and moving on to something else and rinse and repeat.
Half the crazed shit he spouts never even ends up happening, so a patient "OK dear" response to the old fool can be more helpful than getting worked up yourself and aggravating the situation.
The reality for Sir Keir is that he is in government and has the ability to do things.
It’s very obvious what he needs to do in order to win back support, that is reducing immigration as the number one priority and stopping the boats.
He has the ability to do that. Whether he does is another question. But the voters have told him.
I do not think like some others that the election is over. I still think Labour are favourites to win but I am happy to re-assess again in three years time when I will be happy to call a loss for them if it’s coming. But many here have never supported them since the day they were elected.
I haven’t called Reform voters thick or racist, I have addressed the issues they’ve raised and explain what to do about them in my view.
But what I will not support is a party that refuses to build. Labour is the only party that has identified this as a problem so they retain my vote on that basis. Reform want to stop pylons and renewable energy being built. It's a very simple question for the Reform supporters, why do you oppose things being built when they provide jobs?
I can totally sympathise with the argument for slowing net zero work but if a company wants to build infrastructure on your patch, why on Earth would you oppose it, whatever it is? That Tweet from Tice really was dense. I thought until then they'd actually changed but they really have not.
Reform want to stop solar farms as they see agriculture land for food, and the pylons are disliked virtually by everyone who is effected not least dur to the reduction in their house price
I am not sure if the Lib Dems will join the objections but I wouldn't be surprised
NIMBYISM has just received rocket boosters
There was some polling out earlier which showed that new Reform voters are 50:50 on Net Zero. I was really surprised by that; the danger of getting too much info off PB.
I think the no solar farms on prime arable land is a defendable position from a food security perspective. But their boomerslop approach to opposing all renewables and infrastructure is possibly an example of them believing their own rhetoric rather than the views of their voter base.
To be honest solar panels should be on homes and commercial buildings not farm land
Depends if you want to impose your that on farmers/land owners. If you think food security is more important, we should provide subsidies to incentivise food production.
The vote in the German parliament was 310 in favour, 307 against, so not only didn't he get the required number, he almost lost the vote itself. That's surprising.
There's lots of angry politicians on the radio at the moment. There are many SPD politcians who dislike Merz, they will probably vote for him in the second round, but wanted to give him a kick up the arse in the first vote
As someone else might have mentioned earlier, if it's obvious he's going to win on the second vote, there must be a temptation for the likes of the AfD to also vote for him in order to say "You only won because of us" even if it isn't technically true.
That makes zero sense to me. How would they then attack a government that they claimed had only got into power with AfD votes? It would be a very poor start to being the Opposition.
Also, I don't know how anyone can be 100% sure Merz will get the votes.
Georgia governor Brian Kemp has decided that he won't challenge Democrat John Ossoff for the Georgia Senate seat in next year's midterms.
He clearly also realises that the midterms will be a bloodbath for Republicans & doesn't want to take the chance of being branded a loser.
And burning through his cash pike in the process.
Curious to know if Musk will also draw in his horns in supporting Republicans in the mid-terms.
Musk seems to have undergone a genuine conversion into a right-wing extremist, and has also burned most of his bridges with liberals & the Democratic Party.
I think he will try to give as much support as he can to try & reduce the Democrats' expected House majority & prevent them from gaining the Senate.
It would have to be a really bad election for the Republicans for them to lose the Senate. Democrats would have to make a net gain of 4. On a good day let's say they hold onto all the seats they currently hold (including 2 where Trump won in 24). And let's say they also pick up Maine and North Carolina. They would need to pick up Ohio - which Trump won by 11.2%. And then - which is the 4th Senate pickup? I guess Alaska? Or Texas or Florida?
FWIW Democrats are up average 2-3% in the generic congressional polling at the moment - I would have thought they'd need to be a lot further ahead than that to have even a small chance of taking the Senate.
Sherrod Brown did a lot better than Harris in Ohio (he lost by only 3.5%). He might have a good chance in a Blue Wave mid-term if he can be convinced to run again.
The same thing applies to Jon Tester. He lost by a wider margin in Montana, but still did a lot better than Harris. He has won before in Blue Wave years, and if convinced to run again, could win back his seat.
The independent candidate Dan Osborn is planning to run again in Nebraska, and he could succeed at his second try.
Mary Peltola would be a very strong candidate in Alaska. She narrowly lost her Alaska Congressional seat & as a conservative Democrat (with an "A" rating from the NRA), she's a very good fit for the state. She's still thinking of her options, but appears to be leaning more towards governor or another run at Congress.
The Democratic Kentucky governor Andy Beshear would be a very strong candidate for Kentucky. Very foolishly, he appears to be leaning towards a run for President in 2028. (He has no chance of being a Democratic Presidential candidate.) If he can be convinced to run for Senate instead, then he could have a very good chance of winning.
Georgia governor Brian Kemp has decided that he won't challenge Democrat John Ossoff for the Georgia Senate seat in next year's midterms.
He clearly also realises that the midterms will be a bloodbath for Republicans & doesn't want to take the chance of being branded a loser.
And burning through his cash pike in the process.
Curious to know if Musk will also draw in his horns in supporting Republicans in the mid-terms.
Musk seems to have undergone a genuine conversion into a right-wing extremist, and has also burned most of his bridges with liberals & the Democratic Party.
I think he will try to give as much support as he can to try & reduce the Democrats' expected House majority & prevent them from gaining the Senate.
It would have to be a really bad election for the Republicans for them to lose the Senate. Democrats would have to make a net gain of 4. On a good day let's say they hold onto all the seats they currently hold (including 2 where Trump won in 24). And let's say they also pick up Maine and North Carolina. They would need to pick up Ohio - which Trump won by 11.2%. And then - which is the 4th Senate pickup? I guess Alaska? Or Texas or Florida?
FWIW Democrats are up average 2-3% in the generic congressional polling at the moment - I would have thought they'd need to be a lot further ahead than that to have even a small chance of taking the Senate.
Sherrod Brown did a lot better than Harris in Ohio (he lost by only 3.5%). He might have a good chance in a Blue Wave mid-term if he can be convinced to run again.
The same thing applies to Jon Tester. He lost by a wider margin in Montana, but still did a lot better than Harris. He has won before in Blue Wave years, and if convinced to run again, could win back his seat.
The independent candidate Dan Osborn is planning to run again in Nebraska, and he could succeed at his second try.
Mary Peltola would be a very strong candidate in Alaska. She narrowly lost her Alaska Congressional seat & as a conservative Democrat (with an "A" rating from the NRA), she's a very good fit for the state. She's still thinking of her options, but appears to be leaning more towards governor or another run at Congress.
The Democratic Kentucky governor Andy Beshear would be a very strong candidate for Kentucky. Very foolishly, he appears to be leaning towards a run for President in 2028. (He has no chance of being a Democratic Presidential candidate.) If he can be convinced to run for Senate instead, then he could have a very good chance of winning.
Just had a look at the route @BlancheLivermore is taking. Seems to be the Voie de la Nive to Saint-Jean. Then Chemin du Piémont Pyrénéen to Saint-Bertrand-de-Comminges where it splits to the Via Garona where he is now. So far 200 miles and 25K ft of elevation.
He'll be glad to get back to his day job and taking it a bit easier. More pics please @Blanche
Modi - India and UK have agreed an ambitious trade deal
SPOILER: Starmer has ambitiously offered India the Lake District in return for a good pakora recipe, and he’s ambitiously hoping to give India £400bn if they agree to take possession of the Royal Navy
With Labour apparently following the Cameron playbook, have they won over any former moderate voters who would now pick Labour over Reform?
This may be useful in tight contests. The New Statesmen opines this be the case.
Why don't you do a straw poll of PB? BG North Wales, Marquee Mark, David L are all very moderate Tories, ask them if they would lend their vote to Sir in order to keep Reform out. Some of them might do?
Good morning
I would not vote for Starmer under any circumstances
Under any circumstances?
Suppose the next election resolved into a Farage-Starmer showdown.
Or, more fancifully, BNP-Starmer? There's always a point where a voter has to find a clothes peg for their nose.
And yes, if Romford is a Ref-Con fight next time, the appalling Andrew Rosindell has my vote. Even though Buster the bull terrier was always the brains of the operation, and he's dead now.
I think my constituency will be a Ref/Con fight, but I will vote LibDem, as we may sneak through the middle, particularly if the Labour vote comes over.
There's no point in voting Con to keep out Ref, as Jenrick is as bad as any Ref MP, and he will be leader by then.
Comments
This isn't an inflatable Bozo in Hartlepool moment.
So my view is that you should vote for who you like best, because that will increase that party's chances of becoming a challenger in the long run.
.BBC News - The people refusing to use AI
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c15q5qzdjqxo
They have been neglected in the rebuilding of police numbers in the last few years, and I think some forces have perhaps forgotten how to use them effectively, and what they can achieve.
You can get significantly more PCSOs for the same budget as warranted officers (maybe 3 for 2 - my guestimate), and they can be given particular powers and training by Chief Constables.
My strictly monitored photo quota for today.
🙄
http://www.insidehandsworth.co.uk/2019/12/operation-park-safe/
In particular, they’re good because you don’t need a degree. So, very capable but not scholastic people (like my GF) can get a job keeping the law
Bring back the PCSOs. They were a visibly calming presence in Camden (except for me, who got excited)
https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:eiroqhvmrl6xbr35pavye5lw/post/3lois3xuies24
It is because of a certain German Chancellor from the 1930's who did some very bad things.
The logic behind the secret vote is to provide a guardrail, so that even if legislators face intense pressure to vote for a charismatic demagogue, then they can still vote against him in secret.
To apply this to modern times, I think if the US Senate had a similar procedure for secret voting for impeachment, then Trump would have definitely been impeached after January 6. There were a number of Republican Senators who privately told Mitt Romney that they wanted to vote for impeachment but were too scared to do so.
I also think we should have the equivalent of a US Forest Service to protect the environment and rural communities - 15,000 sheep killed by dogs a year etc etc. Preferably on horseback, cos it's cool.
John McTernan
@johnmcternan
Parties can't justify actions that run counter to their values. Inexplicably Labour plans to cut £4500 a year from a million disabled people. Focus groups are revolted when they hear that people who can’t wash below their waist will lose benefits.
https://x.com/johnmcternan/status/1919404785393873084
Don't think Singapore has the same issues.
Maybe it's a bit less binary in the UK where we have a number of poor choices, but even so we should go for the least bad one.
* Right and wrong are empirical terms here, not value judgements. I defy anyone to say Trump's administration is better, as it turned out, than Harris's would have been, or better than Biden's actually was.
And in the US that means they could say no without fear of a gun wielding Trump supporter turning up at their home at 3am
“If you needed more evidence of why the word ‘inclusive’ has been stripped of all genuine meaning, it’s now being used by the lobby group Dignity in Dying in the most grim fashion.
Everyone is encouraged to take their life: to hell with boring safeguards!
EDI in Death!”
https://x.com/treesey/status/1919425478911201359?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Seriously. Check the original tweet. Extraordinary
Reform are planning on mounting a wave of lawsuits to delay solar farms and battery storage projects.
Paradoxically, one of the most valuable things Labour can do for its clean energy agenda is leave (or at least, aggressively reinterpret) an environmental treaty.
If the lawsuits are waged on 'environmental grounds', they will be protected by the Aarhus Treaty Cost Protection Caps.
This means the maximum legal costs they can be forced to pay (if unsuccessful) is just £10,000. This is the case even though legal challenges against infrastructure can cost developers (and taxpayers) millions. ..
https://x.com/Sam_Dumitriu/status/1919677241975255133
Another bunch of self indulgent arseholes.
I rather dislike it because one of the strengths of PB is a back and forth. Just posting and running does not allow that to happen.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/sport/tennis/zhao-xintong-has-nearly-half-of-500k-world-championship-prize-money-taken-from-him/ar-AA1EeRlB?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=3550bc7eef8b4b978475e4a62af5adb7&ei=32
Pause
Obviously that's a big if.
Reversing it will do more damage, given all the political capital they’ve spent telling everyone why it was so necessary.
If Merz hadn't pissed everyone off, and broken his promises even before taking office, he would have avoided this embarrassment.
It's not as if he's like Boris Johnson - completely untrustworthy but at least for a while a vote-winner. Merz is completely untrustworthy and a vote loser, and there are plenty in the CDU who really don't like him. It would be no surprise at all if some of the missing votes were from his own party.
Well yes, but doesn't Hamas plan to murder all Jews? Sauce for the goose and all that,
https://bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvgq22lzn3no
https://x.com/kvistp/status/1919487628501549424
Weaponising them would be trivial.
It’s not far off Scrooge and the workhouse
If he continues to face problems with SPD rebels, then he'll bring the Greens into a 'Kenya Coalition' (CDU + SPD + Greens).
Labour voters believe higher immigration levels are driving down their living standards, a poll has shown
Fewer than one in four who backed the party last year say that they have felt the economic benefits
https://x.com/dominicpenna/status/1919711773143289994?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
https://haveyoursay.tfl.gov.uk/sl12-superloop
SL12 – proposed express bus service between Gants Hill and Rainham on Facebook Share SL12 – proposed express bus service between Gants Hill and Rainham on Twitter Share SL12 – proposed express bus service between Gants Hill and Rainham on LinkedinEmail SL12 – proposed express bus service between Gants Hill and Rainham link
We would like your feedback on proposals to expand the Superloop network with a new express bus service operating between Gants Hill and Ferry Lane in Rainham, via Romford. The route would be numbered SL12.
Use the following buttons to find out more about what is proposed, view maps and proposed bus stops, and have your say.
You have until Friday 23 May 2025 to give us your feedback.
Yes, the areas voting on Thursday tended to be areas the Tories traditionally do well in. They trend rural over urban. But we did not quite know that Reform would have the strength to win seats outside of eastern Brexit-voter-heavy strongholds, which they did.
When we start to factor in the unitary
/metropolitan authorities next year, we’ll see a lot more traditionally red-wall voting areas added to the mix, and I wouldn’t like to suggest Reform are going to do markedly poorer in those.
I sometimes reflect on what people have posted and can change my mind on things. At its best PB is an education. For instance I now fully understand how the BBC can post rolling updates on trials (as with the Sycamore Gap trial) yet I cannot comment about guilt/innocence/plausibility of defence etc...
I think during covid there was some superb posting, amid the dross. And don't forget that PB is open to the world - I am sure more read PB than comment, and who knows what people take away from an afternoon of frenzied political discourse heavily disguised as cricket chat, deltic appreciation and banning threats for poor musical appreciation posting?
The reality for Sir Keir is that he is in government and has the ability to do things.
It’s very obvious what he needs to do in order to win back support, that is reducing immigration as the number one priority and stopping the boats.
He has the ability to do that. Whether he does is another question. But the voters have told him.
I do not think like some others that the election is over. I still think Labour are favourites to win but I am happy to re-assess again in three years time when I will be happy to call a loss for them if it’s coming. But many here have never supported them since the day they were elected.
I haven’t called Reform voters thick or racist, I have addressed the issues they’ve raised and explain what to do about them in my view.
But what I will not support is a party that refuses to build. Labour is the only party that has identified this as a problem so they retain my vote on that basis. Reform want to stop pylons and renewable energy being built. It's a very simple question for the Reform supporters, why do you oppose things being built when they provide jobs?
I can totally sympathise with the argument for slowing net zero work but if a company wants to build infrastructure on your patch, why on Earth would you oppose it, whatever it is? That Tweet from Tice really was dense. I thought until then they'd actually changed but they really have not.
It’s beyond embarrassing now .
It just seems counterproductive from the POV of anyone who might end up backing his coalition.
Unless they actually want another snap election - which seems equally foolish.
I am not sure if the Lib Dems will join the objections but I wouldn't be surprised
NIMBYISM has just received rocket boosters
While he is trying to Make America Great Again, Britain is already Great.
I think the no solar farms on prime arable land is a defendable position from a food security perspective. But their boomerslop approach to opposing all renewables and infrastructure is possibly an example of them believing their own rhetoric rather than the views of their voter base.
https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1919715862296035816?t=J9H-XE4oqCvC5V4hK-a7yQ&s=19
“Perhaps the most interesting of these complex, troubled global attitudes to Europe can be found in the United States. Because if you think Donald Trump, Elon Musk and J.D. Vance are crude American chauvinists, you’re wrong. They may bluster, bark and bind themselves in Old Glory – but deep down they are disappointed children of Europe. They are not rejecting the Old World; they are a Kraft Single grieving Brie de Meaux.
“The modern American right looks across the Atlantic and sees the continent that gave them their ancestors, their laws, their language, their architecture, their religion, their art – and they see it weakening. They see Europe afraid to defend itself, ashamed of its past, unable to define its future. And like furious heirs watching a great family home fall into disrepair, they lash out. So that is what dreadful Kyrgyz cheese tells us about Donald J. Trump. Next I’m going to try the local biscuits. I fear they may not match a chocolate Leibniz.”
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/when-it-comes-to-cheese-im-eurocentric/
The problem is that the local elections on a whole represented 1 type of constituency - and I think there is a limit as to what we can extrapolate from that
Plus for someone who is supposedly teetotal, Trump behaves very much like a manic depressive alcoholic and confused old man.
Going from zero to 100 on random topics then getting distracted and moving on to something else and rinse and repeat.
Half the crazed shit he spouts never even ends up happening, so a patient "OK dear" response to the old fool can be more helpful than getting worked up yourself and aggravating the situation.
That argument doesn't hold for pastoral farming.
Also, I don't know how anyone can be 100% sure Merz will get the votes.
Modi - India and UK have agreed an ambitious trade deal
The same thing applies to Jon Tester. He lost by a wider margin in Montana, but still did a lot better than Harris. He has won before in Blue Wave years, and if convinced to run again, could win back his seat.
The independent candidate Dan Osborn is planning to run again in Nebraska, and he could succeed at his second try.
Mary Peltola would be a very strong candidate in Alaska. She narrowly lost her Alaska Congressional seat & as a conservative Democrat (with an "A" rating from the NRA), she's a very good fit for the state. She's still thinking of her options, but appears to be leaning more towards governor or another run at Congress.
The Democratic Kentucky governor Andy Beshear would be a very strong candidate for Kentucky. Very foolishly, he appears to be leaning towards a run for President in 2028. (He has no chance of being a Democratic Presidential candidate.) If he can be convinced to run for Senate instead, then he could have a very good chance of winning.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/06/us/politics/2026-senate-map-democrats-schumer.html?unlocked_article_code=1.FE8.UdEn.2U7zw7YYkFQH&smid=url-share
There's no point in voting Con to keep out Ref, as Jenrick is as bad as any Ref MP, and he will be leader by then.