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A Very British Alternative: Jim Callaghan's Victory and the Redefinition of Britain's Future

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,034
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Mickey 17 is a pretty good movie.

    Mickey 16 finished on such a cliffhanger.
    Actually there was very little doubt.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,392

    I think if somebody had pitched Trump 2.0 first 100 days in office as a new Thick of It style tv show it would have got rejected for stretching the credibility of what could possibly happen far too much.

    Not so. We knew in advance that behind Trump lay Project 2025. It is only Trump himself who denied knowledge.

    How Trump fast-tracked Project 2025 and why it’s worse than you think
    To understand the 100-day sprint, you have to understand the long game that’s playing out behind the scenes, says Alex Hannaford. Now it is happening in real time, America is having to face up to the consequences of a new dictator class

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-project-2025-maga-b2742240.html
    It more the chaotic, poorly planned and thought out approach to everything e.g.the uninhibited island with penguins gets slapped with mega tariffs. We used a super complicated formula to decide on our tariff levels taking in lots of complicated metrics...what's the formula...here it is...see its complicated...hold on are you just multiplying two terms that cancel out, so all you have done is divided incoming vs outgoing....the list of this stuff goes on and on.
    Part of the plan, I fear. Govern by executive order; bypass Congress (even GOP-controlled Congress); ignore the courts. Flood the zone. Get inside opponents' OODA loop as people used to say but don't any more.

    That part is very well thought out. And if the details of tariffs are absurd, that merely reflects the expert consensus that it's a daft policy. That's why no experts were involved in drawing it up.

    As posted earlier, here is Ronald Reagan in two minutes explaining the case against tariffs:-
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Mj6N-WBPrVw
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,034

    I have been to Alcatraz I think 3 times. If you wanted to reopen the island as an actual prison you would have to flatten everything and start again from scratch.

    SOP for this administration.
    Though they're still just in flattening mode.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,900
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Ah. Part of the Lowe/Farage split. What happens if Reform UK are outflanked on the right?
    I spoke to somebody a few weeks ago and they say there is a very strong possibility that Nigel Farage (and Lee Anderson) will be disqualified from being MPs if Mr Lowe wins his libel case against them.
    Because they can't pay? Wouldn't Zia Yusuf cough up?
    It stems from MPs being ineligible if they become bankrupts, and Lowe has very deep pockets and is litigious.

    There's also restrictions on MPs receiving money from outsiders.

    Plus the rozzers are involved so this has the potential to get even messier even before the financial aspects kick in.
    Ooh! Save our Nige!!
    Rupert Lowe won a quarter of million quid in damages plus costs from Martin Samuels/The Times in a libel case.

    The timings look sus for Farage and others.

    Rupert Lowe publicly criticises Farage on Thursday afternoon and the whip is removed the next day.
    I reckon it will all be ok. If Farage loses the money will be found somehow.

    According to t'internet, Lowe and Yusuf are almost equally well off
    Surely Farage could afford it, unless it went into several millions?

    Aside from everything else (I'm a Celebrity, recording "Up the RA" for doorbells, GB News, the current declarations, and the rest) he has 20 years service as an MEP with MEP expenses, and the 70% pension MEP kicking in in about 2027-2028 at 63 if he wants it.

    Lee Anderson would be a bit more on the edge.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,034

    I think if somebody had pitched Trump 2.0 first 100 days in office as a new Thick of It style tv show it would have got rejected for stretching the credibility of what could possibly happen far too much.

    Not so. We knew in advance that behind Trump lay Project 2025. It is only Trump himself who denied knowledge.

    How Trump fast-tracked Project 2025 and why it’s worse than you think
    To understand the 100-day sprint, you have to understand the long game that’s playing out behind the scenes, says Alex Hannaford. Now it is happening in real time, America is having to face up to the consequences of a new dictator class

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-project-2025-maga-b2742240.html
    It more the chaotic, poorly planned and thought out approach to everything e.g.the uninhibited island with penguins gets slapped with mega tariffs. We used a super complicated formula to decide on our tariff levels taking in lots of complicated metrics...what's the formula...here it is...see its complicated...hold on are you just multiplying two terms that cancel out, so all you have done is divided incoming vs outgoing....the list of this stuff goes on and on.
    Part of the plan, I fear. Govern by executive order; bypass Congress (even GOP-controlled Congress); ignore the courts. Flood the zone. Get inside opponents' OODA loop as people used to say but don't any more.

    That part is very well thought out. And if the details of tariffs are absurd, that merely reflects the expert consensus that it's a daft policy. That's why no experts were involved in drawing it up.

    As posted earlier, here is Ronald Reagan in two minutes explaining the case against tariffs:-
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Mj6N-WBPrVw
    The 100% tariff which Trump just announced on any movie produced overseas is going to be *interesting*.
    Will screw up the industry in fairly short order, I think.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,900
    edited 6:05AM

    I think if somebody had pitched Trump 2.0 first 100 days in office as a new Thick of It style tv show it would have got rejected for stretching the credibility of what could possibly happen far too much.

    Not so. We knew in advance that behind Trump lay Project 2025. It is only Trump himself who denied knowledge.

    How Trump fast-tracked Project 2025 and why it’s worse than you think
    To understand the 100-day sprint, you have to understand the long game that’s playing out behind the scenes, says Alex Hannaford. Now it is happening in real time, America is having to face up to the consequences of a new dictator class

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-project-2025-maga-b2742240.html
    It more the chaotic, poorly planned and thought out approach to everything e.g.the uninhibited island with penguins gets slapped with mega tariffs. We used a super complicated formula to decide on our tariff levels taking in lots of complicated metrics...what's the formula...here it is...see its complicated...hold on are you just multiplying two terms that cancel out, so all you have done is divided incoming vs outgoing....the list of this stuff goes on and on.
    Part of the plan, I fear. Govern by executive order; bypass Congress (even GOP-controlled Congress); ignore the courts. Flood the zone. Get inside opponents' OODA loop as people used to say but don't any more.

    That part is very well thought out. And if the details of tariffs are absurd, that merely reflects the expert consensus that it's a daft policy. That's why no experts were involved in drawing it up.

    As posted earlier, here is Ronald Reagan in two minutes explaining the case against tariffs:-
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Mj6N-WBPrVw
    I predict that we will get docudrama tagged as a documentary (docudrama ... drama not necessary) by the end of 2025, perhaps sooner. Perhaps the main deterrent would be Trump passing an Executive Order deporting all the participants to Guantanamo in cages.

    It's a propaganda gift to the opposition.

    There's enough material just in a handful of the Executive Orders, and the run up to them which is well attested.

    Trump is a performer himself, deliberately blurring fiction, delusion and his rose-tinted view of himself. It could transfer the other way, and Trump himself won't be able to tell the difference.

    @MarqueeMark may be the one to comment here.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,900
    MattW said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Ah. Part of the Lowe/Farage split. What happens if Reform UK are outflanked on the right?
    I spoke to somebody a few weeks ago and they say there is a very strong possibility that Nigel Farage (and Lee Anderson) will be disqualified from being MPs if Mr Lowe wins his libel case against them.
    Because they can't pay? Wouldn't Zia Yusuf cough up?
    It stems from MPs being ineligible if they become bankrupts, and Lowe has very deep pockets and is litigious.

    There's also restrictions on MPs receiving money from outsiders.

    Plus the rozzers are involved so this has the potential to get even messier even before the financial aspects kick in.
    Ooh! Save our Nige!!
    Rupert Lowe won a quarter of million quid in damages plus costs from Martin Samuels/The Times in a libel case.

    The timings look sus for Farage and others.

    Rupert Lowe publicly criticises Farage on Thursday afternoon and the whip is removed the next day.
    I reckon it will all be ok. If Farage loses the money will be found somehow.

    According to t'internet, Lowe and Yusuf are almost equally well off
    Surely Farage could afford it, unless it went into several millions?

    Aside from everything else (I'm a Celebrity, recording "Up the RA" for doorbells, GB News, the current declarations, and the rest) he has 20 years service as an MEP with MEP expenses, and the 70% pension MEP kicking in in about 2027-2028 at 63 if he wants it.

    Lee Anderson would be a bit more on the edge.
    Bah. "pension MEP" = "MEP pension".
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,034
    Nigelb said:

    I think if somebody had pitched Trump 2.0 first 100 days in office as a new Thick of It style tv show it would have got rejected for stretching the credibility of what could possibly happen far too much.

    Not so. We knew in advance that behind Trump lay Project 2025. It is only Trump himself who denied knowledge.

    How Trump fast-tracked Project 2025 and why it’s worse than you think
    To understand the 100-day sprint, you have to understand the long game that’s playing out behind the scenes, says Alex Hannaford. Now it is happening in real time, America is having to face up to the consequences of a new dictator class

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-project-2025-maga-b2742240.html
    It more the chaotic, poorly planned and thought out approach to everything e.g.the uninhibited island with penguins gets slapped with mega tariffs. We used a super complicated formula to decide on our tariff levels taking in lots of complicated metrics...what's the formula...here it is...see its complicated...hold on are you just multiplying two terms that cancel out, so all you have done is divided incoming vs outgoing....the list of this stuff goes on and on.
    Part of the plan, I fear. Govern by executive order; bypass Congress (even GOP-controlled Congress); ignore the courts. Flood the zone. Get inside opponents' OODA loop as people used to say but don't any more.

    That part is very well thought out. And if the details of tariffs are absurd, that merely reflects the expert consensus that it's a daft policy. That's why no experts were involved in drawing it up.

    As posted earlier, here is Ronald Reagan in two minutes explaining the case against tariffs:-
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Mj6N-WBPrVw
    The 100% tariff which Trump just announced on any movie produced overseas is going to be *interesting*.
    Will screw up the industry in fairly short order, I think.
    It also raises the larger question of tariffing IP.

    What are the practicalities of that ?
    And if this does proceed beyond the mad brain fart stage, what are the larger implications for the UK ?

    There's also the free speech / 1st Amendment question.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,020
    Callagam was too old and unable to deal with events such as the headline that did for him even if he didn't say it "Crisis? What crisis"
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,652
    MattW said:

    I think if somebody had pitched Trump 2.0 first 100 days in office as a new Thick of It style tv show it would have got rejected for stretching the credibility of what could possibly happen far too much.

    Not so. We knew in advance that behind Trump lay Project 2025. It is only Trump himself who denied knowledge.

    How Trump fast-tracked Project 2025 and why it’s worse than you think
    To understand the 100-day sprint, you have to understand the long game that’s playing out behind the scenes, says Alex Hannaford. Now it is happening in real time, America is having to face up to the consequences of a new dictator class

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-project-2025-maga-b2742240.html
    It more the chaotic, poorly planned and thought out approach to everything e.g.the uninhibited island with penguins gets slapped with mega tariffs. We used a super complicated formula to decide on our tariff levels taking in lots of complicated metrics...what's the formula...here it is...see its complicated...hold on are you just multiplying two terms that cancel out, so all you have done is divided incoming vs outgoing....the list of this stuff goes on and on.
    Part of the plan, I fear. Govern by executive order; bypass Congress (even GOP-controlled Congress); ignore the courts. Flood the zone. Get inside opponents' OODA loop as people used to say but don't any more.

    That part is very well thought out. And if the details of tariffs are absurd, that merely reflects the expert consensus that it's a daft policy. That's why no experts were involved in drawing it up.

    As posted earlier, here is Ronald Reagan in two minutes explaining the case against tariffs:-
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Mj6N-WBPrVw
    I predict that we will get docudrama tagged as a documentary (docudrama ... drama not necessary) by the end of 2025, perhaps sooner. Perhaps the main deterrent would be Trump passing an Executive Order deporting all the participants to Guantanamo in cages.

    It's a propaganda gift to the opposition.

    There's enough material just in a handful of the Executive Orders, and the run up to them which is well attested.

    Trump is a performer himself, deliberately blurring fiction, delusion and his rose-tinted view of himself. It could transfer the other way, and Trump himself won't be able to tell the difference.

    @MarqueeMark may be the one to comment here.
    It seems to me he's actually getting worse as well. This has gone way beyond inane babbling about sharks and hurty feelings about being so unpopular.

    Is there a possibility, however remote, that things get so bad even Vance and the MAGA loons of Congress can't ignore it?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,034
    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    I think if somebody had pitched Trump 2.0 first 100 days in office as a new Thick of It style tv show it would have got rejected for stretching the credibility of what could possibly happen far too much.

    Not so. We knew in advance that behind Trump lay Project 2025. It is only Trump himself who denied knowledge.

    How Trump fast-tracked Project 2025 and why it’s worse than you think
    To understand the 100-day sprint, you have to understand the long game that’s playing out behind the scenes, says Alex Hannaford. Now it is happening in real time, America is having to face up to the consequences of a new dictator class

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-project-2025-maga-b2742240.html
    It more the chaotic, poorly planned and thought out approach to everything e.g.the uninhibited island with penguins gets slapped with mega tariffs. We used a super complicated formula to decide on our tariff levels taking in lots of complicated metrics...what's the formula...here it is...see its complicated...hold on are you just multiplying two terms that cancel out, so all you have done is divided incoming vs outgoing....the list of this stuff goes on and on.
    Part of the plan, I fear. Govern by executive order; bypass Congress (even GOP-controlled Congress); ignore the courts. Flood the zone. Get inside opponents' OODA loop as people used to say but don't any more.

    That part is very well thought out. And if the details of tariffs are absurd, that merely reflects the expert consensus that it's a daft policy. That's why no experts were involved in drawing it up.

    As posted earlier, here is Ronald Reagan in two minutes explaining the case against tariffs:-
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Mj6N-WBPrVw
    I predict that we will get docudrama tagged as a documentary (docudrama ... drama not necessary) by the end of 2025, perhaps sooner. Perhaps the main deterrent would be Trump passing an Executive Order deporting all the participants to Guantanamo in cages.

    It's a propaganda gift to the opposition.

    There's enough material just in a handful of the Executive Orders, and the run up to them which is well attested.

    Trump is a performer himself, deliberately blurring fiction, delusion and his rose-tinted view of himself. It could transfer the other way, and Trump himself won't be able to tell the difference.

    @MarqueeMark may be the one to comment here.
    It seems to me he's actually getting worse as well. This has gone way beyond inane babbling about sharks and hurty feelings about being so unpopular.

    Is there a possibility, however remote, that things get so bad even Vance and the MAGA loons of Congress can't ignore it?
    There are PBers still rooting for the loon.
    His US supporters are way more committed than that.

    Until his numbers start tanking a lot more than they are now, Vance et al won't dare.
    If they polls were to go south quickly, then they'd probably move just as fast.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,510
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: irony is getting almost all my predictions wrong, except my split three-way bet, of which two parts came off.

    Fortnight now until Imola, start of triple header.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,392
    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    I think if somebody had pitched Trump 2.0 first 100 days in office as a new Thick of It style tv show it would have got rejected for stretching the credibility of what could possibly happen far too much.

    Not so. We knew in advance that behind Trump lay Project 2025. It is only Trump himself who denied knowledge.

    How Trump fast-tracked Project 2025 and why it’s worse than you think
    To understand the 100-day sprint, you have to understand the long game that’s playing out behind the scenes, says Alex Hannaford. Now it is happening in real time, America is having to face up to the consequences of a new dictator class

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-project-2025-maga-b2742240.html
    It more the chaotic, poorly planned and thought out approach to everything e.g.the uninhibited island with penguins gets slapped with mega tariffs. We used a super complicated formula to decide on our tariff levels taking in lots of complicated metrics...what's the formula...here it is...see its complicated...hold on are you just multiplying two terms that cancel out, so all you have done is divided incoming vs outgoing....the list of this stuff goes on and on.
    Part of the plan, I fear. Govern by executive order; bypass Congress (even GOP-controlled Congress); ignore the courts. Flood the zone. Get inside opponents' OODA loop as people used to say but don't any more.

    That part is very well thought out. And if the details of tariffs are absurd, that merely reflects the expert consensus that it's a daft policy. That's why no experts were involved in drawing it up.

    As posted earlier, here is Ronald Reagan in two minutes explaining the case against tariffs:-
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Mj6N-WBPrVw
    I predict that we will get docudrama tagged as a documentary (docudrama ... drama not necessary) by the end of 2025, perhaps sooner. Perhaps the main deterrent would be Trump passing an Executive Order deporting all the participants to Guantanamo in cages.

    It's a propaganda gift to the opposition.

    There's enough material just in a handful of the Executive Orders, and the run up to them which is well attested.

    Trump is a performer himself, deliberately blurring fiction, delusion and his rose-tinted view of himself. It could transfer the other way, and Trump himself won't be able to tell the difference.

    @MarqueeMark may be the one to comment here.
    It seems to me he's actually getting worse as well. This has gone way beyond inane babbling about sharks and hurty feelings about being so unpopular.

    Is there a possibility, however remote, that things get so bad even Vance and the MAGA loons of Congress can't ignore it?
    Ignore what though? Trump has had some marble-loss moments but they were overshadowed by Biden's and hidden in a forest of gotchas from his opponents unable to tell when Trump is joking, like with the sharks and Pope picture and all the rest. Call it TDS.

    Trump has torn apart American civil structure and the checks and balances imposed by the Founding Fathers. That was intended as part of Project 2025.

    Trump has also trashed the economy which while cheered on by some might make those who lose out discover their backbones.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,805
    Nigelb said:

    I have been to Alcatraz I think 3 times. If you wanted to reopen the island as an actual prison you would have to flatten everything and start again from scratch.

    SOP for this administration.
    Though they're still just in flattening mode.
    I would have thought Trump would prefer to flatten it and turn it into Trump Island. Exclusive resort with multi-million dollar apartments.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,443

    I think if somebody had pitched Trump 2.0 first 100 days in office as a new Thick of It style tv show it would have got rejected for stretching the credibility of what could possibly happen far too much.

    Not so. We knew in advance that behind Trump lay Project 2025. It is only Trump himself who denied knowledge.

    How Trump fast-tracked Project 2025 and why it’s worse than you think
    To understand the 100-day sprint, you have to understand the long game that’s playing out behind the scenes, says Alex Hannaford. Now it is happening in real time, America is having to face up to the consequences of a new dictator class

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-project-2025-maga-b2742240.html
    https://archive.is/2sJbh

    (disquieting read, thank you)
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,464
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    I think if somebody had pitched Trump 2.0 first 100 days in office as a new Thick of It style tv show it would have got rejected for stretching the credibility of what could possibly happen far too much.

    Not so. We knew in advance that behind Trump lay Project 2025. It is only Trump himself who denied knowledge.

    How Trump fast-tracked Project 2025 and why it’s worse than you think
    To understand the 100-day sprint, you have to understand the long game that’s playing out behind the scenes, says Alex Hannaford. Now it is happening in real time, America is having to face up to the consequences of a new dictator class

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-project-2025-maga-b2742240.html
    It more the chaotic, poorly planned and thought out approach to everything e.g.the uninhibited island with penguins gets slapped with mega tariffs. We used a super complicated formula to decide on our tariff levels taking in lots of complicated metrics...what's the formula...here it is...see its complicated...hold on are you just multiplying two terms that cancel out, so all you have done is divided incoming vs outgoing....the list of this stuff goes on and on.
    Part of the plan, I fear. Govern by executive order; bypass Congress (even GOP-controlled Congress); ignore the courts. Flood the zone. Get inside opponents' OODA loop as people used to say but don't any more.

    That part is very well thought out. And if the details of tariffs are absurd, that merely reflects the expert consensus that it's a daft policy. That's why no experts were involved in drawing it up.

    As posted earlier, here is Ronald Reagan in two minutes explaining the case against tariffs:-
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Mj6N-WBPrVw
    I predict that we will get docudrama tagged as a documentary (docudrama ... drama not necessary) by the end of 2025, perhaps sooner. Perhaps the main deterrent would be Trump passing an Executive Order deporting all the participants to Guantanamo in cages.

    It's a propaganda gift to the opposition.

    There's enough material just in a handful of the Executive Orders, and the run up to them which is well attested.

    Trump is a performer himself, deliberately blurring fiction, delusion and his rose-tinted view of himself. It could transfer the other way, and Trump himself won't be able to tell the difference.

    @MarqueeMark may be the one to comment here.
    It seems to me he's actually getting worse as well. This has gone way beyond inane babbling about sharks and hurty feelings about being so unpopular.

    Is there a possibility, however remote, that things get so bad even Vance and the MAGA loons of Congress can't ignore it?
    There are PBers still rooting for the loon.
    His US supporters are way more committed than that.

    Until his numbers start tanking a lot more than they are now, Vance et al won't dare.
    If they polls were to go south quickly, then they'd probably move just as fast.
    However, the currency that matters in the Trump administration is loyalty. The way to get on in it is to praise him, and the loonier Trump's actions, the more important it is that you praise him. Anyone can praise a leader who acts wisely and well. Praising a crazy despot, that shows real loyalty.

    It's a tale as old as Hans Christian Andersen.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,392
    edited 6:58AM
    Paul Krugman tells the NYT in 1m30s video that it is the uncertainty around tariffs (rather than tariffs themselves) that risks recession:-
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/uoNzbSTe68M
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,450
    MattW said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Ah. Part of the Lowe/Farage split. What happens if Reform UK are outflanked on the right?
    I spoke to somebody a few weeks ago and they say there is a very strong possibility that Nigel Farage (and Lee Anderson) will be disqualified from being MPs if Mr Lowe wins his libel case against them.
    Because they can't pay? Wouldn't Zia Yusuf cough up?
    It stems from MPs being ineligible if they become bankrupts, and Lowe has very deep pockets and is litigious.

    There's also restrictions on MPs receiving money from outsiders.

    Plus the rozzers are involved so this has the potential to get even messier even before the financial aspects kick in.
    Ooh! Save our Nige!!
    Rupert Lowe won a quarter of million quid in damages plus costs from Martin Samuels/The Times in a libel case.

    The timings look sus for Farage and others.

    Rupert Lowe publicly criticises Farage on Thursday afternoon and the whip is removed the next day.
    I reckon it will all be ok. If Farage loses the money will be found somehow.

    According to t'internet, Lowe and Yusuf are almost equally well off
    Surely Farage could afford it, unless it went into several millions?

    Aside from everything else (I'm a Celebrity, recording "Up the RA" for doorbells, GB News, the current declarations, and the rest) he has 20 years service as an MEP with MEP expenses, and the 70% pension MEP kicking in in about 2027-2028 at 63 if he wants it.

    Lee Anderson would be a bit more on the edge.
    Boris Johnson has/had a tremendously large income, but always seemed to have money troubles. In 2017 Farage described himself as 'skint'; he has four kids and two ex-wives.

    Don't think that just because these idiots earn lots of money, they have lots of money. They're perfectly able to squander everything they earn.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,510

    Paul Krugman tells the NYT in 1m30s video that it is the uncertainty around tariffs (rather than tariffs themselves) that risks recession:-
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/uoNzbSTe68M

    Uncertainty is a common theme with Trump's America.

    Not a business chap, but if I were and had the option of just avoiding the US for supply chains then I'd be looking at that to just have some degree of confidence things won't get turned upside down because Trump's decided to do something ineffable.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,298

    MattW said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Ah. Part of the Lowe/Farage split. What happens if Reform UK are outflanked on the right?
    I spoke to somebody a few weeks ago and they say there is a very strong possibility that Nigel Farage (and Lee Anderson) will be disqualified from being MPs if Mr Lowe wins his libel case against them.
    Because they can't pay? Wouldn't Zia Yusuf cough up?
    It stems from MPs being ineligible if they become bankrupts, and Lowe has very deep pockets and is litigious.

    There's also restrictions on MPs receiving money from outsiders.

    Plus the rozzers are involved so this has the potential to get even messier even before the financial aspects kick in.
    Ooh! Save our Nige!!
    Rupert Lowe won a quarter of million quid in damages plus costs from Martin Samuels/The Times in a libel case.

    The timings look sus for Farage and others.

    Rupert Lowe publicly criticises Farage on Thursday afternoon and the whip is removed the next day.
    I reckon it will all be ok. If Farage loses the money will be found somehow.

    According to t'internet, Lowe and Yusuf are almost equally well off
    Surely Farage could afford it, unless it went into several millions?

    Aside from everything else (I'm a Celebrity, recording "Up the RA" for doorbells, GB News, the current declarations, and the rest) he has 20 years service as an MEP with MEP expenses, and the 70% pension MEP kicking in in about 2027-2028 at 63 if he wants it.

    Lee Anderson would be a bit more on the edge.
    Boris Johnson has/had a tremendously large income, but always seemed to have money troubles. In 2017 Farage described himself as 'skint'; he has four kids and two ex-wives.

    Don't think that just because these idiots earn lots of money, they have lots of money. They're perfectly able to squander everything they earn.
    Just the sort of people to sensibly put in charge of public finances…
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,869
    Nigelb said:

    I think if somebody had pitched Trump 2.0 first 100 days in office as a new Thick of It style tv show it would have got rejected for stretching the credibility of what could possibly happen far too much.

    Not so. We knew in advance that behind Trump lay Project 2025. It is only Trump himself who denied knowledge.

    How Trump fast-tracked Project 2025 and why it’s worse than you think
    To understand the 100-day sprint, you have to understand the long game that’s playing out behind the scenes, says Alex Hannaford. Now it is happening in real time, America is having to face up to the consequences of a new dictator class

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-project-2025-maga-b2742240.html
    It more the chaotic, poorly planned and thought out approach to everything e.g.the uninhibited island with penguins gets slapped with mega tariffs. We used a super complicated formula to decide on our tariff levels taking in lots of complicated metrics...what's the formula...here it is...see its complicated...hold on are you just multiplying two terms that cancel out, so all you have done is divided incoming vs outgoing....the list of this stuff goes on and on.
    Part of the plan, I fear. Govern by executive order; bypass Congress (even GOP-controlled Congress); ignore the courts. Flood the zone. Get inside opponents' OODA loop as people used to say but don't any more.

    That part is very well thought out. And if the details of tariffs are absurd, that merely reflects the expert consensus that it's a daft policy. That's why no experts were involved in drawing it up.

    As posted earlier, here is Ronald Reagan in two minutes explaining the case against tariffs:-
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Mj6N-WBPrVw
    The 100% tariff which Trump just announced on any movie produced overseas is going to be *interesting*.
    Will screw up the industry in fairly short order, I think.
    Is it just movies or TV shows too ?
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 725
    MattW said:

    isam said:

    Ah. Part of the Lowe/Farage split. What happens if Reform UK are outflanked on the right?
    There's always been a party to the right of Farage (Griffin's BNP, Batten's UKIP to name two), and they always disappear because he is the only show in town
    There's a whole list of groups and groupuscules to the right of Reform. Most of them want to use Reform as a vehicle for furthering their dogmas.
    Dogmas for scale?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,900

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    I think if somebody had pitched Trump 2.0 first 100 days in office as a new Thick of It style tv show it would have got rejected for stretching the credibility of what could possibly happen far too much.

    Not so. We knew in advance that behind Trump lay Project 2025. It is only Trump himself who denied knowledge.

    How Trump fast-tracked Project 2025 and why it’s worse than you think
    To understand the 100-day sprint, you have to understand the long game that’s playing out behind the scenes, says Alex Hannaford. Now it is happening in real time, America is having to face up to the consequences of a new dictator class

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-project-2025-maga-b2742240.html
    It more the chaotic, poorly planned and thought out approach to everything e.g.the uninhibited island with penguins gets slapped with mega tariffs. We used a super complicated formula to decide on our tariff levels taking in lots of complicated metrics...what's the formula...here it is...see its complicated...hold on are you just multiplying two terms that cancel out, so all you have done is divided incoming vs outgoing....the list of this stuff goes on and on.
    Part of the plan, I fear. Govern by executive order; bypass Congress (even GOP-controlled Congress); ignore the courts. Flood the zone. Get inside opponents' OODA loop as people used to say but don't any more.

    That part is very well thought out. And if the details of tariffs are absurd, that merely reflects the expert consensus that it's a daft policy. That's why no experts were involved in drawing it up.

    As posted earlier, here is Ronald Reagan in two minutes explaining the case against tariffs:-
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Mj6N-WBPrVw
    I predict that we will get docudrama tagged as a documentary (docudrama ... drama not necessary) by the end of 2025, perhaps sooner. Perhaps the main deterrent would be Trump passing an Executive Order deporting all the participants to Guantanamo in cages.

    It's a propaganda gift to the opposition.

    There's enough material just in a handful of the Executive Orders, and the run up to them which is well attested.

    Trump is a performer himself, deliberately blurring fiction, delusion and his rose-tinted view of himself. It could transfer the other way, and Trump himself won't be able to tell the difference.

    @MarqueeMark may be the one to comment here.
    It seems to me he's actually getting worse as well. This has gone way beyond inane babbling about sharks and hurty feelings about being so unpopular.

    Is there a possibility, however remote, that things get so bad even Vance and the MAGA loons of Congress can't ignore it?
    Ignore what though? Trump has had some marble-loss moments but they were overshadowed by Biden's and hidden in a forest of gotchas from his opponents unable to tell when Trump is joking, like with the sharks and Pope picture and all the rest. Call it TDS.

    Trump has torn apart American civil structure and the checks and balances imposed by the Founding Fathers. That was intended as part of Project 2025.

    Trump has also trashed the economy which while cheered on by some might make those who lose out discover their backbones.
    On this one he has the time factor as in the UK. Here, Keir Starmer's policies are nowhere near working through - that will be 2026 or even 2027 for most of them to see clear results, or some may not be detectible by those not directly impacted.

    For Donald Trump, his cuts haven't hit his activist and voter support-base yet. The impact of tariffs and trade disruption will start to feed through soon, as may increases in the cost of drugs following cancellation of Biden's cost reduction scheme.

    But things like the proposed cuts to Medicaid (which Trump said would not be touched) are still in the budget reconciliation bill, and his gutting of the administrative state which delivers federal spending will have a gradual impact.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,263
    How would this movie tariff work ? What if your film has some scenes shot in another country but the main production is in the USA ?
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 881
    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    I am puzzled why I am getting push back on this....what is so wrong with stating when people vote they should be able to trust parties are actually going to try and do what their manifesto says. I don't see how that is controversial else how can you cast an informed vote

    So you want the Labour 2024 ,manifesto to be implemented in full?
    That is what people voted for so yes
    I am sorry I see a manifesto as a contract between voter and voted for......you give us your vote this is what we will do with it

    no different for example than a contract between me and my isp...you give us this much money each month this is what we will provide

    If isp's behaved like politicians and said you are still bound to your contract but providing you internet access was only an aspiration there would be hell unleashed
    It can't be a contract like that because we live in a complex country and a complex world buffeted by events. To take just one example, when Labour wrote their manifesto Trump hadn't been re-elected so they didn't know that we'd have to start spending way more money on defence. When something seismic happens you can't say 'Ah sorry, your manifesto said you'd keep aid spending at current levels so no cuts allowed there'. A manifesto ought to be a statement of intention and a encapsulation of a party's governing philosophy. Of course political parties have been as guilty as anyone in trying to imply that everything in their manifesto is a promise they know that they might not be able to keep
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,464
    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    I think if somebody had pitched Trump 2.0 first 100 days in office as a new Thick of It style tv show it would have got rejected for stretching the credibility of what could possibly happen far too much.

    Not so. We knew in advance that behind Trump lay Project 2025. It is only Trump himself who denied knowledge.

    How Trump fast-tracked Project 2025 and why it’s worse than you think
    To understand the 100-day sprint, you have to understand the long game that’s playing out behind the scenes, says Alex Hannaford. Now it is happening in real time, America is having to face up to the consequences of a new dictator class

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-project-2025-maga-b2742240.html
    It more the chaotic, poorly planned and thought out approach to everything e.g.the uninhibited island with penguins gets slapped with mega tariffs. We used a super complicated formula to decide on our tariff levels taking in lots of complicated metrics...what's the formula...here it is...see its complicated...hold on are you just multiplying two terms that cancel out, so all you have done is divided incoming vs outgoing....the list of this stuff goes on and on.
    Part of the plan, I fear. Govern by executive order; bypass Congress (even GOP-controlled Congress); ignore the courts. Flood the zone. Get inside opponents' OODA loop as people used to say but don't any more.

    That part is very well thought out. And if the details of tariffs are absurd, that merely reflects the expert consensus that it's a daft policy. That's why no experts were involved in drawing it up.

    As posted earlier, here is Ronald Reagan in two minutes explaining the case against tariffs:-
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Mj6N-WBPrVw
    The 100% tariff which Trump just announced on any movie produced overseas is going to be *interesting*.
    Will screw up the industry in fairly short order, I think.
    Is it just movies or TV shows too ?
    Nobody knows; it's not a policy announcement on the normal sense, after all. But given how movies shade seamlessly into streaming into TV shows, and given that Trump likes tariffs, it's not obvious that he would carve TV shows out.

    Can the UK at least agree that there's no point at all in expending any effort on getting a Deal with Trump's America?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,263
    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    I think if somebody had pitched Trump 2.0 first 100 days in office as a new Thick of It style tv show it would have got rejected for stretching the credibility of what could possibly happen far too much.

    Not so. We knew in advance that behind Trump lay Project 2025. It is only Trump himself who denied knowledge.

    How Trump fast-tracked Project 2025 and why it’s worse than you think
    To understand the 100-day sprint, you have to understand the long game that’s playing out behind the scenes, says Alex Hannaford. Now it is happening in real time, America is having to face up to the consequences of a new dictator class

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-project-2025-maga-b2742240.html
    It more the chaotic, poorly planned and thought out approach to everything e.g.the uninhibited island with penguins gets slapped with mega tariffs. We used a super complicated formula to decide on our tariff levels taking in lots of complicated metrics...what's the formula...here it is...see its complicated...hold on are you just multiplying two terms that cancel out, so all you have done is divided incoming vs outgoing....the list of this stuff goes on and on.
    Part of the plan, I fear. Govern by executive order; bypass Congress (even GOP-controlled Congress); ignore the courts. Flood the zone. Get inside opponents' OODA loop as people used to say but don't any more.

    That part is very well thought out. And if the details of tariffs are absurd, that merely reflects the expert consensus that it's a daft policy. That's why no experts were involved in drawing it up.

    As posted earlier, here is Ronald Reagan in two minutes explaining the case against tariffs:-
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Mj6N-WBPrVw
    I predict that we will get docudrama tagged as a documentary (docudrama ... drama not necessary) by the end of 2025, perhaps sooner. Perhaps the main deterrent would be Trump passing an Executive Order deporting all the participants to Guantanamo in cages.

    It's a propaganda gift to the opposition.

    There's enough material just in a handful of the Executive Orders, and the run up to them which is well attested.

    Trump is a performer himself, deliberately blurring fiction, delusion and his rose-tinted view of himself. It could transfer the other way, and Trump himself won't be able to tell the difference.

    @MarqueeMark may be the one to comment here.
    It seems to me he's actually getting worse as well. This has gone way beyond inane babbling about sharks and hurty feelings about being so unpopular.

    Is there a possibility, however remote, that things get so bad even Vance and the MAGA loons of Congress can't ignore it?
    Ignore what though? Trump has had some marble-loss moments but they were overshadowed by Biden's and hidden in a forest of gotchas from his opponents unable to tell when Trump is joking, like with the sharks and Pope picture and all the rest. Call it TDS.

    Trump has torn apart American civil structure and the checks and balances imposed by the Founding Fathers. That was intended as part of Project 2025.

    Trump has also trashed the economy which while cheered on by some might make those who lose out discover their backbones.
    On this one he has the time factor as in the UK. Here, Keir Starmer's policies are nowhere near working through - that will be 2026 or even 2027 for most of them to see clear results, or some may not be detectible by those not directly impacted.

    For Donald Trump, his cuts haven't hit his activist and voter support-base yet. The impact of tariffs and trade disruption will start to feed through soon, as may increases in the cost of drugs following cancellation of Biden's cost reduction scheme.

    But things like the proposed cuts to Medicaid (which Trump said would not be touched) are still in the budget reconciliation bill, and his gutting of the administrative state which delivers federal spending will have a gradual impact.
    I can’t afford my medication but he owned the Libs ! It’s hard to hit his base when they’re surrounded by denial and a forcefield of idiocy .
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,034
    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    I think if somebody had pitched Trump 2.0 first 100 days in office as a new Thick of It style tv show it would have got rejected for stretching the credibility of what could possibly happen far too much.

    Not so. We knew in advance that behind Trump lay Project 2025. It is only Trump himself who denied knowledge.

    How Trump fast-tracked Project 2025 and why it’s worse than you think
    To understand the 100-day sprint, you have to understand the long game that’s playing out behind the scenes, says Alex Hannaford. Now it is happening in real time, America is having to face up to the consequences of a new dictator class

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-project-2025-maga-b2742240.html
    It more the chaotic, poorly planned and thought out approach to everything e.g.the uninhibited island with penguins gets slapped with mega tariffs. We used a super complicated formula to decide on our tariff levels taking in lots of complicated metrics...what's the formula...here it is...see its complicated...hold on are you just multiplying two terms that cancel out, so all you have done is divided incoming vs outgoing....the list of this stuff goes on and on.
    Part of the plan, I fear. Govern by executive order; bypass Congress (even GOP-controlled Congress); ignore the courts. Flood the zone. Get inside opponents' OODA loop as people used to say but don't any more.

    That part is very well thought out. And if the details of tariffs are absurd, that merely reflects the expert consensus that it's a daft policy. That's why no experts were involved in drawing it up.

    As posted earlier, here is Ronald Reagan in two minutes explaining the case against tariffs:-
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Mj6N-WBPrVw
    The 100% tariff which Trump just announced on any movie produced overseas is going to be *interesting*.
    Will screw up the industry in fairly short order, I think.
    Is it just movies or TV shows too ?
    Who the hell knows ?

    As I said, currently at the mad brain fart stage. Doesn't mean it won't happen, though.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,392
    nico67 said:

    How would this movie tariff work ? What if your film has some scenes shot in another country but the main production is in the USA ?

    Same question for all of Trump's tariffs because he does not understand international supply chains.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,465

    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    I think if somebody had pitched Trump 2.0 first 100 days in office as a new Thick of It style tv show it would have got rejected for stretching the credibility of what could possibly happen far too much.

    Not so. We knew in advance that behind Trump lay Project 2025. It is only Trump himself who denied knowledge.

    How Trump fast-tracked Project 2025 and why it’s worse than you think
    To understand the 100-day sprint, you have to understand the long game that’s playing out behind the scenes, says Alex Hannaford. Now it is happening in real time, America is having to face up to the consequences of a new dictator class

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-project-2025-maga-b2742240.html
    It more the chaotic, poorly planned and thought out approach to everything e.g.the uninhibited island with penguins gets slapped with mega tariffs. We used a super complicated formula to decide on our tariff levels taking in lots of complicated metrics...what's the formula...here it is...see its complicated...hold on are you just multiplying two terms that cancel out, so all you have done is divided incoming vs outgoing....the list of this stuff goes on and on.
    Part of the plan, I fear. Govern by executive order; bypass Congress (even GOP-controlled Congress); ignore the courts. Flood the zone. Get inside opponents' OODA loop as people used to say but don't any more.

    That part is very well thought out. And if the details of tariffs are absurd, that merely reflects the expert consensus that it's a daft policy. That's why no experts were involved in drawing it up.

    As posted earlier, here is Ronald Reagan in two minutes explaining the case against tariffs:-
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Mj6N-WBPrVw
    The 100% tariff which Trump just announced on any movie produced overseas is going to be *interesting*.
    Will screw up the industry in fairly short order, I think.
    Is it just movies or TV shows too ?
    Nobody knows; it's not a policy announcement on the normal sense, after all. But given how movies shade seamlessly into streaming into TV shows, and given that Trump likes tariffs, it's not obvious that he would carve TV shows out.

    Can the UK at least agree that there's no point at all in expending any effort on getting a Deal with Trump's America?
    I’m sure the Starmer super tanker will be right on it, probably have a new position on this by next year.
    Can we tariff state visits?
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 725
    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Chris said:

    DM_Andy said:

    kamski said:

    kamski said:

    kamski said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Stereodog said:

    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    Andy_JS said:

    One thing that everyone can agree on except Boris Johnson and Nadine Dorries: Boris Johnson should not be PM again.

    Boris is 8/1 to be next Tory leader and 16/1 to be next PM. Of course he should not be PM again, but it is far from impossible. The hard question in politics is not who shouldn't, but who should?

    If I could pick the PM from anywhere my top five in no particular order would be: Hilary Benn, Rory, Cameron, Davey, Hunt. This is not stuff to make you feel optimistic.
    Jesus what a pathetic list of clueless wankers. You are beyond hope, Centrist Grandad
    This from the person who's only political belief is 'do what the fascists want and maybe they won't need to assume power '.
    Where 'the fascists' = 'the voters'.
    I really don't understand the mindset of people who less than a year out from losing a general election feel that what the voters really want the government to do is what the 3rd placed party in terms of votes proposed.

    Do you actually believe in democracy or only when it agrees with you?
    Starmer ran on a platform of deportations and cutting immigration. What did you think you were voting for?
    Why not have the courage for once in your life to answer a simple question?

    It's obvious from your posts that you don't believe in democracy so why not just say so. I'd have a tiny bit more respect for you if you weren't such a coward.
    People who profess a ‘belief’ in democracy are invariably hypocrites. As soon as it is convenient they come up with excuses for why the people must be ignored.
    See what I mean? Sophistry, lies and trolling.
    You can't say you believe in democracy because you don't. So have the guts to say so. Maybe you've got some interesting reasons for your opposition to democracy.
    You're invoking the word as if you were talking about a creed rather than a description of certain aspects of particular constitutional arrangements. Of course I don't 'believe' in democracy, and neither do you. Democracy isn't a religion.
    This endless sophistry is what makes you such a pointless arse. You know exactly what I mean. You are opposed to democracy. You don't seem stupid. I'd be interested in hearing the reasons for your opposition, but maybe you are just incapable of offering a sincere opinion on anything.
    I'm not opposed to democracy but the problem is that the word has so many different connotations that it's ceasing to be a useful term.

    People used to mock communist regimes calling themselves democratic, but the way they understood the term wasn't all that far removed from the way it is increasingly used in the West today, to encompass a set of ideological beliefs that supersede the fallible opinions of the general public, who can't be given too much of a say lest they "threaten democracy" by getting what they want.
    The way you get to implement what you want is by winning elections. The AfD did not win the German election, the RN did not win the French election, Reform did not win the British election. I've got no problem with the people in County Durham getting exactly what they voted for, it sounds like you've got a problem with British people getting what they voted for.
    It would be a useful exercise for you to go through the manifestos of the winning parties over the last 25 years and note their promises on immigration. Can you honestly say that people have got what they voted for?
    This is some kind of blinding revelation to you? That politicians make promises they don't keep?

    How old are you?
    If you vote for something win and don't get it, how do you define this as democracy?
    Straw man there. Humans and their institutions are flawed. A nation in which all adults can vote, all can stand for election and all can organise politically according to rules that apply to all and that elected body, with a limited term, has sovereign power within the rule of law is a democracy even if both voters and politicians sometimes lie and often fail.
    No its not a strawman is a party says elect us we will do a b and c....then when elected they have a mandate to do a b and c.....if they don't even attempt to do those things that is what we non politicians called lying through their teeth and the mandate they got elected on is null and void.

    If someone says sign this contract we will give you 1 gb broadband then fail to deliver any broadband that is fraud. I don't see why we shouldn't hold political parties to similar standards

    How can I cast a truly democratic vote when political parties are selling me on a false bill of what they will do. That means I am not voting for specific policies I would like to see enacted but a colour/tribe

    Democracy is more than being able to vote, its a two part thing being able to vote and to know what you are voting for
    If voters feel a party has failed to deliver on their promises to a sufficient degree, they can vote them out at the next election. The party in government got in again, more or less, in 2015, 2017 and 2019 in the UK, so presumably voters thought they'd gotten close enough to their promises. In Canada, that happened in 2019, 2021 and 2025. The voters don't seem to be saying that parties have catastrophically failed to deliver.
    Yes they can vote them out then vote for another party who will promise x, y, z then do nothing about them. It comes to guess work which party actually means what they say in their manifesto.

    By all means keep up your ra ra support of things as they are just be aware that you are supporting a system that drives people to distrust it.

    You are probably also the sort of person who says well if you want that you should vote for parties that support it.....and now arguing we cant believe anything a party claims to support and thats ok.

    Sorry if you allow this farce of parties making manifesto promises and then ignoring them you are not a supporter of democracy.
    I would like all sorts of change. I didn't vote to keep the Tories in in 2015, 2017 and 2019. But I'm a democrat and I respect that that was the decision of the wider electorate.

    If most people felt like you do, we'd expect no party in government to be returned to power, and yet it happens more often than not.
    Why would no party be returned if they did what they said they would do in their manifesto and people voted for them.

    We live in a country where less and less people are voting because they don't believe that anything they vote for matters because parties nowadays abandon manifesto pledges the moment they have the persons vote.....can you not see why a lot of people are getting cynical and why politicians are approaching estate agents level of trust?
    Apologies, we appear to be talking at cross-purposes. I was saying that if most people felt you do, i.e. that parties are insufficiently delivering on their promises, then we'd expect no party in government to be returned to power. But parties in government are returned to power. This suggests that most of the electorate think, most of the time, parties are delivering enough of what they promised for it to be worth returning them to power. Have I explained my contention better this time?

    I am concerned about falling turnout, but I think turnout has many explanations. Turnout tends to be low when elections aren't close. Turnout has fallen in the last few elections, but it was going up before then: it was up in 2005, 2010 and 2015.
    Sadly too many voters still vote on tribal lines rather than looking at how parties performed against what they promised
    I will gladly vote for a party that has manifesto promises I agree with if I believe they will at least try to implement those promises. The problem is every party now makes promises they actually have no plan on keeping.

    So as a voter I look at the manifestos and I go who shall I vote for and have no idea because I have no idea which party might actually do anything I agree with when in power.....I can't rely on the manifesto so how do I choose where to put my x?
    Oh, woe is you! You could just stop exaggerating. Parties never deliver 100% of their manifestos, but they usually deliver a good chunk of them and rarely do the opposite of them.
    Oh do give over, how long for instance have the tories been promising for example that migration would be reduced to 10's of thousands and failed to deliver.....labour didn't really even bother with a manifesto last election going for the ming vase.

    I don't expect them to deliver 100% I do expect them to at least try to deliver and often they don't even make the pretence of trying. Indeed labour even went to court to declare manifesto's were non binding.

    Given that why the fuck should we give these idiots anything let alone a mandate and I apply that to all parties. The best thing we can do is do a voter strike and no one votes till they accept what they promise they try to deliver and until then we don't elect any of them
    Pagan2 said:

    I am puzzled why I am getting push back on this....what is so wrong with stating when people vote they should be able to trust parties are actually going to try and do what their manifesto says. I don't see how that is controversial else how can you cast an informed vote

    Some data to clarify your point about manifestos. Answer: partly right /partly wrong depending on which parliament.

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/article/comment/manifestos-still-matter-even-though-their-promises-arent-being-delivered
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,957
    Nigelb said:

    Pretty interesting table here.
    In comparison to WFA, migrants hardly figure:

    To clearly understand how damaging winter fuel has been for the Government - this chart looks at key policies or political events so far by cut through and positivity. Winter Fuel has by far the highest cut through of any policy, and the highest negativity.
    https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1918285704544637332

    What do we make of it ?

    It doesn’t seem to count as an event and has not been included. However, increased deportations is on there with ~45% awareness and ~35% net approval.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,805
    edited 7:18AM
    nico67 said:

    How would this movie tariff work ? What if your film has some scenes shot in another country but the main production is in the USA ?

    That actually already happens, there are all sorts of tax breaks that states / countries offer and the movies have to give detailed break downs of how much was filmed where etc in order to qualify.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,649

    Nigelb said:

    Pretty interesting table here.
    In comparison to WFA, migrants hardly figure:

    To clearly understand how damaging winter fuel has been for the Government - this chart looks at key policies or political events so far by cut through and positivity. Winter Fuel has by far the highest cut through of any policy, and the highest negativity.
    https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1918285704544637332

    What do we make of it ?

    It doesn’t seem to count as an event and has not been included. However, increased deportations is on there with ~45% awareness and ~35% net approval.
    Bottom right hand corner, in red. Nearly 90% aware and over 60% negativity.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,805

    Paul Krugman tells the NYT in 1m30s video that it is the uncertainty around tariffs (rather than tariffs themselves) that risks recession:-
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/uoNzbSTe68M

    Uncertainty to a business is far worse than high taxes etc, because you could spend a huge amount of time and effort planning for changes then they get switched up again on you (or you don't know what the change will be, then you are just guessing).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,805
    edited 7:27AM
    I get the feeling with the movie policy and Alcatraz, Trump watched some tv shows and off the back of that fired up the bat phone to tweet / "trump" (whatever you do on truth social) his thoughts.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,263

    nico67 said:

    How would this movie tariff work ? What if your film has some scenes shot in another country but the main production is in the USA ?

    That actually already happens, there are all sorts of tax breaks that states / countries offer and the movies have to give detailed break downs of how much was filmed where etc in order to qualify.
    So if a US film shoots a few scenes in say the UK but the main production is in the USA that wouldn’t be tariffed .
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,805
    edited 7:24AM
    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    How would this movie tariff work ? What if your film has some scenes shot in another country but the main production is in the USA ?

    That actually already happens, there are all sorts of tax breaks that states / countries offer and the movies have to give detailed break downs of how much was filmed where etc in order to qualify.
    So if a US film shoots a few scenes in say the UK but the main production is in the USA that wouldn’t be tariffed .
    I doubt Trump has thought about this carefully, and we would be silly to delve too deep into his latest shot off the dome. But as I say these tax breaks and incentive schemes are very common in movie / tv show making and they all come with different rules attached, so the makers already have to carefully plan production and detail the proportions of what was shot where.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,263
    When will all these marvellous new deals be announced by Trump ? Or is it that other countries have decided to sit and wait whilst he trashes the US economy and then they can get a better deal .
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,789
    Is this Movie tariff malarkey just another attack on Canada?

    Aren't a lot of US productions actually shot north of the border?

    Over here, we can refer to it as a tax on James Bond.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,034

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    How would this movie tariff work ? What if your film has some scenes shot in another country but the main production is in the USA ?

    That actually already happens, there are all sorts of tax breaks that states / countries offer and the movies have to give detailed break downs of how much was filmed where etc in order to qualify.
    So if a US film shoots a few scenes in say the UK but the main production is in the USA that wouldn’t be tariffed .
    I doubt Trump has thought about this carefully, and we would be silly to delve too deep into his latest shot off the dome. But as I say these tax breaks and incentive schemes are very common in movie / tv show making and they all come with different rules attached, so the makers already have to carefully plan production and detail the proportions of what was shot where.
    “This is a concerted effort by other Nations and, therefore, a National Security threat,” Trump said in the Truth Social post. “It is, in addition to everything else, messaging and propaganda!”

    “WE WANT MOVIES MADE IN AMERICA, AGAIN!”
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,805
    edited 7:34AM

    Is this Movie tariff malarkey just another attack on Canada?

    Aren't a lot of US productions actually shot north of the border?

    Over here, we can refer to it as a tax on James Bond.

    Vancouver used to be very popular, but I think it is being use less and less these days as it is very expensive in Canada to do anything. Mexico city I believe is now an epicenter for US tv shows. Basically they go where ever the incentives are best. There are some random small cities in Mid West of US that get loads of usage because those states provided big tax breaks and they cheap to operate in.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,112
    viewcode said:

    I think if somebody had pitched Trump 2.0 first 100 days in office as a new Thick of It style tv show it would have got rejected for stretching the credibility of what could possibly happen far too much.

    Not so. We knew in advance that behind Trump lay Project 2025. It is only Trump himself who denied knowledge.

    How Trump fast-tracked Project 2025 and why it’s worse than you think
    To understand the 100-day sprint, you have to understand the long game that’s playing out behind the scenes, says Alex Hannaford. Now it is happening in real time, America is having to face up to the consequences of a new dictator class

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-project-2025-maga-b2742240.html
    https://archive.is/2sJbh

    (disquieting read, thank you)
    Yes. It's a brief and useful summary of a moderate liberal position and its take on events and Trumpian strategy WRT the events since January.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 725
    Nigelb said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    How would this movie tariff work ? What if your film has some scenes shot in another country but the main production is in the USA ?

    That actually already happens, there are all sorts of tax breaks that states / countries offer and the movies have to give detailed break downs of how much was filmed where etc in order to qualify.
    So if a US film shoots a few scenes in say the UK but the main production is in the USA that wouldn’t be tariffed .
    I doubt Trump has thought about this carefully, and we would be silly to delve too deep into his latest shot off the dome. But as I say these tax breaks and incentive schemes are very common in movie / tv show making and they all come with different rules attached, so the makers already have to carefully plan production and detail the proportions of what was shot where.
    “This is a concerted effort by other Nations and, therefore, a National Security threat,” Trump said in the Truth Social post. “It is, in addition to everything else, messaging and propaganda!”

    “WE WANT MOVIES MADE IN AMERICA, AGAIN!”
    If you watch some of the Seal/Marines/Delta Force flag waving movies and compare them to the Chinese 'Wolf Warrior' films, there is not much difference in plot/action content. But to me, the Chinese ones are better made even if it is CGI.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,170

    Is this Movie tariff malarkey just another attack on Canada?

    Aren't a lot of US productions actually shot north of the border?

    Over here, we can refer to it as a tax on James Bond.

    Why would we refer to it as a tax on James Bond? The UK film industry is very big and highly skilled - much more than Bond.

    Anyway, Trump knows all about movie making, he’s appeared in plenty of films from Home Alone 2 to Ghosts Can’t Do it, Wall Street 2 to a Russian Film that doesn’t have a release date, yet.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,112
    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    I think if somebody had pitched Trump 2.0 first 100 days in office as a new Thick of It style tv show it would have got rejected for stretching the credibility of what could possibly happen far too much.

    Not so. We knew in advance that behind Trump lay Project 2025. It is only Trump himself who denied knowledge.

    How Trump fast-tracked Project 2025 and why it’s worse than you think
    To understand the 100-day sprint, you have to understand the long game that’s playing out behind the scenes, says Alex Hannaford. Now it is happening in real time, America is having to face up to the consequences of a new dictator class

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-project-2025-maga-b2742240.html
    It more the chaotic, poorly planned and thought out approach to everything e.g.the uninhibited island with penguins gets slapped with mega tariffs. We used a super complicated formula to decide on our tariff levels taking in lots of complicated metrics...what's the formula...here it is...see its complicated...hold on are you just multiplying two terms that cancel out, so all you have done is divided incoming vs outgoing....the list of this stuff goes on and on.
    Part of the plan, I fear. Govern by executive order; bypass Congress (even GOP-controlled Congress); ignore the courts. Flood the zone. Get inside opponents' OODA loop as people used to say but don't any more.

    That part is very well thought out. And if the details of tariffs are absurd, that merely reflects the expert consensus that it's a daft policy. That's why no experts were involved in drawing it up.

    As posted earlier, here is Ronald Reagan in two minutes explaining the case against tariffs:-
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Mj6N-WBPrVw
    I predict that we will get docudrama tagged as a documentary (docudrama ... drama not necessary) by the end of 2025, perhaps sooner. Perhaps the main deterrent would be Trump passing an Executive Order deporting all the participants to Guantanamo in cages.

    It's a propaganda gift to the opposition.

    There's enough material just in a handful of the Executive Orders, and the run up to them which is well attested.

    Trump is a performer himself, deliberately blurring fiction, delusion and his rose-tinted view of himself. It could transfer the other way, and Trump himself won't be able to tell the difference.

    @MarqueeMark may be the one to comment here.
    It seems to me he's actually getting worse as well. This has gone way beyond inane babbling about sharks and hurty feelings about being so unpopular.

    Is there a possibility, however remote, that things get so bad even Vance and the MAGA loons of Congress can't ignore it?
    Ignore what though? Trump has had some marble-loss moments but they were overshadowed by Biden's and hidden in a forest of gotchas from his opponents unable to tell when Trump is joking, like with the sharks and Pope picture and all the rest. Call it TDS.

    Trump has torn apart American civil structure and the checks and balances imposed by the Founding Fathers. That was intended as part of Project 2025.

    Trump has also trashed the economy which while cheered on by some might make those who lose out discover their backbones.
    On this one he has the time factor as in the UK. Here, Keir Starmer's policies are nowhere near working through - that will be 2026 or even 2027 for most of them to see clear results, or some may not be detectible by those not directly impacted.

    For Donald Trump, his cuts haven't hit his activist and voter support-base yet. The impact of tariffs and trade disruption will start to feed through soon, as may increases in the cost of drugs following cancellation of Biden's cost reduction scheme.

    But things like the proposed cuts to Medicaid (which Trump said would not be touched) are still in the budget reconciliation bill, and his gutting of the administrative state which delivers federal spending will have a gradual impact.
    Example of Starmer time scale: social care kicked out to new report in 2028; and according to media this morning, implementation by 2038!! (Dilnot was, IIRC, in 2013)

    This is right at the top of epic fails. People voted Labour in the expectation of the major Tory fails being sorted in a timely manner.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,034
    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    I think if somebody had pitched Trump 2.0 first 100 days in office as a new Thick of It style tv show it would have got rejected for stretching the credibility of what could possibly happen far too much.

    Not so. We knew in advance that behind Trump lay Project 2025. It is only Trump himself who denied knowledge.

    How Trump fast-tracked Project 2025 and why it’s worse than you think
    To understand the 100-day sprint, you have to understand the long game that’s playing out behind the scenes, says Alex Hannaford. Now it is happening in real time, America is having to face up to the consequences of a new dictator class

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-project-2025-maga-b2742240.html
    It more the chaotic, poorly planned and thought out approach to everything e.g.the uninhibited island with penguins gets slapped with mega tariffs. We used a super complicated formula to decide on our tariff levels taking in lots of complicated metrics...what's the formula...here it is...see its complicated...hold on are you just multiplying two terms that cancel out, so all you have done is divided incoming vs outgoing....the list of this stuff goes on and on.
    Part of the plan, I fear. Govern by executive order; bypass Congress (even GOP-controlled Congress); ignore the courts. Flood the zone. Get inside opponents' OODA loop as people used to say but don't any more.

    That part is very well thought out. And if the details of tariffs are absurd, that merely reflects the expert consensus that it's a daft policy. That's why no experts were involved in drawing it up.

    As posted earlier, here is Ronald Reagan in two minutes explaining the case against tariffs:-
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Mj6N-WBPrVw
    I predict that we will get docudrama tagged as a documentary (docudrama ... drama not necessary) by the end of 2025, perhaps sooner. Perhaps the main deterrent would be Trump passing an Executive Order deporting all the participants to Guantanamo in cages.

    It's a propaganda gift to the opposition.

    There's enough material just in a handful of the Executive Orders, and the run up to them which is well attested.

    Trump is a performer himself, deliberately blurring fiction, delusion and his rose-tinted view of himself. It could transfer the other way, and Trump himself won't be able to tell the difference.

    @MarqueeMark may be the one to comment here.
    It seems to me he's actually getting worse as well. This has gone way beyond inane babbling about sharks and hurty feelings about being so unpopular.

    Is there a possibility, however remote, that things get so bad even Vance and the MAGA loons of Congress can't ignore it?
    Ignore what though? Trump has had some marble-loss moments but they were overshadowed by Biden's and hidden in a forest of gotchas from his opponents unable to tell when Trump is joking, like with the sharks and Pope picture and all the rest. Call it TDS.

    Trump has torn apart American civil structure and the checks and balances imposed by the Founding Fathers. That was intended as part of Project 2025.

    Trump has also trashed the economy which while cheered on by some might make those who lose out discover their backbones.
    On this one he has the time factor as in the UK. Here, Keir Starmer's policies are nowhere near working through - that will be 2026 or even 2027 for most of them to see clear results, or some may not be detectible by those not directly impacted.

    For Donald Trump, his cuts haven't hit his activist and voter support-base yet. The impact of tariffs and trade disruption will start to feed through soon, as may increases in the cost of drugs following cancellation of Biden's cost reduction scheme.

    But things like the proposed cuts to Medicaid (which Trump said would not be touched) are still in the budget reconciliation bill, and his gutting of the administrative state which delivers federal spending will have a gradual impact.
    Example of Starmer time scale: social care kicked out to new report in 2028; and according to media this morning, implementation by 2038!! (Dilnot was, IIRC, in 2013)

    This is right at the top of epic fails. People voted Labour in the expectation of the major Tory fails being sorted in a timely manner.

    The punt intractable problems into the long grass approach got us into our current mess.

    It's unlikely to get us out of it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,805
    edited 7:50AM
    nico67 said:
    Now if only the government hadn't cancelled the super computer project where we would have been only the 3rd country in the world to have one of clusters for scientific modelling, the others been US and China.....imagine how many science grants could be won on the back of that unique facility.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,900
    Perun this weekend is about the detail of the US Defence Budget, which is increasing by almost the same amount by which other things are being cut.

    America's $150B Defence Surge - Strategy, Risks & What $150 Billion Buys in 2025
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gF3OkIbWnBE
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,900
    nico67 said:
    Does anyone have a research project into how to run a Government Communications Programme to tell everyone about this, and trumpet it as a success?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,487
    Bonjour tout le monde :)

    You’ve probably guessed where I am. Madame Stodge said I needed a holiday so it’s been a few days in north east Spain and southern France.

    The local election results - interesting. Less coherent analysis to follow.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,601
    "Hyper-liberal’ Labour ignoring working-class immigration concerns, says Red Wall MP
    Jonathan Hinder urges PM to commit to migration freeze before it is too late"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/05/04/hyper-liberal-labour-ignoring-immigration-concerns/
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,805
    edited 8:00AM
    MattW said:

    nico67 said:
    Does anyone have a research project into how to run a Government Communications Programme to tell everyone about this, and trumpet it as a success?
    Well they would advertising success from under the previous government achievement as it usually takes around 8 months to get approved for Horizon funding so 99% of that money that got award in 2024 will have been applied for under the Tories.

    Do Labour want to advertise that? They have seemed quite petty at times in regards to the very few successes under Sunak e.g. the maths scheme.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,319
    @bgrueskin.bsky.social‬

    He thinks there’s a cargo ship full of VCR tapes steaming toward the Port of Blockbuster that he’s going to exact these tariffs upon, doesn’t he

    https://bsky.app/profile/bgrueskin.bsky.social/post/3lof3nq4tts2n
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,443
    Andy_JS said:

    "Hyper-liberal’ Labour ignoring working-class immigration concerns, says Red Wall MP
    Jonathan Hinder urges PM to commit to migration freeze before it is too late"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/05/04/hyper-liberal-labour-ignoring-immigration-concerns/

    https://archive.is/KvQtG
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,319
    @phil-lol-ogist.bsky.social‬

    150% TARIFFS ON ALL MEETINGS THAT COULD HAVE BEEN AN EMAIL

    https://bsky.app/profile/phil-lol-ogist.bsky.social/post/3lofa5mycts2a
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,410
    carnforth said:



    Is there a full list of policies which are beyond the pale? And who decides on that list?

    I'll attempt an answer. I'm not a lawyer, so this will probably be inaccurate.

    In the case of Germany, banning a party is governed by Article 21, Paragraph 2 of the Constitution. There's an explanation in English here.

    https://www.bmi.bund.de/EN/topics/constitution/law-political-parties/banning-pol-parties/banning-pol-parties.html

    a political party can only be banned by a decision of the Federal Constitutional Court

    A party may be banned only if it not only takes an anti-constitutional attitude but aims to act on that attitude in a militant and aggressive way. For a political party to be banned, it is therefore not sufficient that they challenge, refuse to recognise or reject the supreme values of our constitution or try to replace them with other values. Instead, the political party concerned must be out to deliberately undermine the functioning of Germany’s free democratic basic order. This presupposes that there must be specific and valid evidence suggesting that there is at least a possibility of the party’s activities being successful.


    What that means in practice is discussed here (in English) in the 2017 judgement of the Constitutional Court which decided that the NPD shouldn't be banned, despite seeking to undermine democracy

    https://www.bundesverfassungsgericht.de/SharedDocs/Entscheidungen/EN/2017/01/bs20170117_2bvb000113en.html

    It's quite long but this part summarises it:

    9. Measured against these standards, the application for prohibition is unfounded:
    a) The respondent seeks, by reason of its aims and the behaviour of its adherents, to abolish the free democratic basic order. The respondent intends to replace the existing constitutional system with an authoritarian national state that adheres to the idea of an ethnically defined “people’s community” (Volksgemeinschaft ). This political concept disregards the human dignity of all those who do not belong to its ethnically-defined Volksgemeinschaft and is thus incompatible with the principle of democracy as set out in the Basic Law.
    b) The respondent advocates aims which are directed against the free democratic basic order and systematically acts towards achieving those aims in a qualified manner.
    c) However, there are no specific and weighty indications suggesting even at least the possibility that these endeavours might be successful.


    You'd have to read more of it if you're interested in the reasons and evidence for its findings.

    (as an aside, key figures in the AfD are closely associated with the NPD, known as 'Die Heimat' since 2023)

  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,410
    kamski said:

    carnforth said:



    Is there a full list of policies which are beyond the pale? And who decides on that list?

    I'll attempt an answer. I'm not a lawyer, so this will probably be inaccurate.

    In the case of Germany, banning a party is governed by Article 21, Paragraph 2 of the Constitution. There's an explanation in English here.

    https://www.bmi.bund.de/EN/topics/constitution/law-political-parties/banning-pol-parties/banning-pol-parties.html

    a political party can only be banned by a decision of the Federal Constitutional Court

    A party may be banned only if it not only takes an anti-constitutional attitude but aims to act on that attitude in a militant and aggressive way. For a political party to be banned, it is therefore not sufficient that they challenge, refuse to recognise or reject the supreme values of our constitution or try to replace them with other values. Instead, the political party concerned must be out to deliberately undermine the functioning of Germany’s free democratic basic order. This presupposes that there must be specific and valid evidence suggesting that there is at least a possibility of the party’s activities being successful.


    What that means in practice is discussed here (in English) in the 2017 judgement of the Constitutional Court which decided that the NPD shouldn't be banned, despite seeking to undermine democracy

    https://www.bundesverfassungsgericht.de/SharedDocs/Entscheidungen/EN/2017/01/bs20170117_2bvb000113en.html

    It's quite long but this part summarises it:

    9. Measured against these standards, the application for prohibition is unfounded:
    a) The respondent seeks, by reason of its aims and the behaviour of its adherents, to abolish the free democratic basic order. The respondent intends to replace the existing constitutional system with an authoritarian national state that adheres to the idea of an ethnically defined “people’s community” (Volksgemeinschaft ). This political concept disregards the human dignity of all those who do not belong to its ethnically-defined Volksgemeinschaft and is thus incompatible with the principle of democracy as set out in the Basic Law.
    b) The respondent advocates aims which are directed against the free democratic basic order and systematically acts towards achieving those aims in a qualified manner.
    c) However, there are no specific and weighty indications suggesting even at least the possibility that these endeavours might be successful.


    You'd have to read more of it if you're interested in the reasons and evidence for its findings.

    (as an aside, key figures in the AfD are closely associated with the NPD, known as 'Die Heimat' since 2023)

    You compared Germany with the UK. I'm not a big fan of this as different countries have different rules, histories and contexts. Most European countries have banned political parties for various reasons since the Second World War. Usually it is parties that have insignificant electoral support - which is politically easier, though legally more problematic since rulings of the ECHR. France has banned several small parties (probably ignoring the ECHR case law in recent cases). Germany banned 2 'extremist' parties in the 1950s, and none since.

    Spain has banned electorally successful Basque separatist parties for being associated with terrorists. I don't know much about NI politics but Wikipedia tells me Sinn Fein was banned in 1956. So there are examples of parties with significant popular support being banned.

    Vlaams Blok was effectively disbanded by the courts in the Netherlands in 2004 for breaking anti-racism laws, despite being the biggest party at the time.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,551

    Is this Movie tariff malarkey just another attack on Canada?

    Aren't a lot of US productions actually shot north of the border?

    Over here, we can refer to it as a tax on James Bond.

    They shot X-Files in Vancover in what is a pretty good studio complex though not as big as Shepperton or Pinewood and with crews which don't match the English ones (in my opinion). They also use Toronto to double up as Chicago which probably saves them some money. But there again liverpool has also been used as a substitute for Chicago for similar reasons
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,652
    Scott_xP said:

    @bgrueskin.bsky.social‬

    He thinks

    No.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,596
    Roger said:

    Is this Movie tariff malarkey just another attack on Canada?

    Aren't a lot of US productions actually shot north of the border?

    Over here, we can refer to it as a tax on James Bond.

    They shot X-Files in Vancover in what is a pretty good studio complex though not as big as Shepperton or Pinewood and with crews which don't match the English ones (in my opinion). They also use Toronto to double up as Chicago which probably saves them some money. But there again liverpool has also been used as a substitute for Chicago for similar reasons
    In the UK we're proud of the fiscal support we give to creative industries but it's easy to see how, from a US perspective, that looks like a dastardly plot, worthy of a Bond villain, to divert cash from Hollywood to Pinewood.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,465
    Roger said:

    Is this Movie tariff malarkey just another attack on Canada?

    Aren't a lot of US productions actually shot north of the border?

    Over here, we can refer to it as a tax on James Bond.

    They shot X-Files in Vancover in what is a pretty good studio complex though not as big as Shepperton or Pinewood and with crews which don't match the English ones (in my opinion). They also use Toronto to double up as Chicago which probably saves them some money. But there again liverpool has also been used as a substitute for Chicago for similar reasons
    Glasgow also. One of the biggest was World War Z where Glasgow stood in for Philadelpha, kept the 'extras' community going for weeks.
    No cracks about not much zombie make up needed please.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,805
    edited 8:12AM
    With the virtual production capture volume technology now available, I would have thought having to be in a certain city to match the skyline etc is becoming far less important.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,900
    kamski said:

    kamski said:

    carnforth said:



    Is there a full list of policies which are beyond the pale? And who decides on that list?

    I'll attempt an answer. I'm not a lawyer, so this will probably be inaccurate.

    In the case of Germany, banning a party is governed by Article 21, Paragraph 2 of the Constitution. There's an explanation in English here.

    https://www.bmi.bund.de/EN/topics/constitution/law-political-parties/banning-pol-parties/banning-pol-parties.html

    a political party can only be banned by a decision of the Federal Constitutional Court

    A party may be banned only if it not only takes an anti-constitutional attitude but aims to act on that attitude in a militant and aggressive way. For a political party to be banned, it is therefore not sufficient that they challenge, refuse to recognise or reject the supreme values of our constitution or try to replace them with other values. Instead, the political party concerned must be out to deliberately undermine the functioning of Germany’s free democratic basic order. This presupposes that there must be specific and valid evidence suggesting that there is at least a possibility of the party’s activities being successful.


    What that means in practice is discussed here (in English) in the 2017 judgement of the Constitutional Court which decided that the NPD shouldn't be banned, despite seeking to undermine democracy

    https://www.bundesverfassungsgericht.de/SharedDocs/Entscheidungen/EN/2017/01/bs20170117_2bvb000113en.html

    It's quite long but this part summarises it:

    9. Measured against these standards, the application for prohibition is unfounded:
    a) The respondent seeks, by reason of its aims and the behaviour of its adherents, to abolish the free democratic basic order. The respondent intends to replace the existing constitutional system with an authoritarian national state that adheres to the idea of an ethnically defined “people’s community” (Volksgemeinschaft ). This political concept disregards the human dignity of all those who do not belong to its ethnically-defined Volksgemeinschaft and is thus incompatible with the principle of democracy as set out in the Basic Law.
    b) The respondent advocates aims which are directed against the free democratic basic order and systematically acts towards achieving those aims in a qualified manner.
    c) However, there are no specific and weighty indications suggesting even at least the possibility that these endeavours might be successful.


    You'd have to read more of it if you're interested in the reasons and evidence for its findings.

    (as an aside, key figures in the AfD are closely associated with the NPD, known as 'Die Heimat' since 2023)

    You compared Germany with the UK. I'm not a big fan of this as different countries have different rules, histories and contexts. Most European countries have banned political parties for various reasons since the Second World War. Usually it is parties that have insignificant electoral support - which is politically easier, though legally more problematic since rulings of the ECHR. France has banned several small parties (probably ignoring the ECHR case law in recent cases). Germany banned 2 'extremist' parties in the 1950s, and none since.

    Spain has banned electorally successful Basque separatist parties for being associated with terrorists. I don't know much about NI politics but Wikipedia tells me Sinn Fein was banned in 1956. So there are examples of parties with significant popular support being banned.

    Vlaams Blok was effectively disbanded by the courts in the Netherlands in 2004 for breaking anti-racism laws, despite being the biggest party at the time.
    In the UK the British Union of Fascists was banned in 1940 for national security reasons, and iirc Mosely was restricted to his mansion - I'm not sure if that was full house arrest.

    I'm not aware of others.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,319
    @PawlowskiMario

    Trump officially entered the psychotic emperor phase. He’s not coming back. The Pope image was it. That was the line. He crossed it and kept walking.

    This isn’t trolling anymore. This is clinical delusion. The tariffs on movies. Reopening Alcatraz. These aren’t policies. This is a man deep in a psychotic loop thinking revenge is leadership and trolling is governance.

    He’s in a feedback loop with his cult. Every time he does something more insane, MAGA cheers louder. And every cheer convinces him he’s still the chosen one. So he takes it further. And further.

    He’s not trying to win. He’s trying to feel worship. He’s not making decisions. He’s playing dress-up in his own hallucination.

    And the worst part? His cult loves it. Because they’re broken like him. Because in their minds, every delusion he has is another way to “own the libs.”

    This is the loop now. The psychotic, delusional, final act. And MAGA is clapping along like it’s a church revival. No one’s driving the bus anymore. They’re just throwing gasoline and screaming kumbaya and Hallelujah.

    https://x.com/PawlowskiMario/status/1919195402693222763
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,263
    MattW said:

    nico67 said:
    Does anyone have a research project into how to run a Government Communications Programme to tell everyone about this, and trumpet it as a success?
    They daren’t mention anything good in relation to the EU !
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,805
    Christ, I just realised we are all falling into the Trump trap again....we are actually discussing seriously Trump latest brain dump of a policy as if somebody like Starmer had just announced it.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,900
    Roger said:

    Is this Movie tariff malarkey just another attack on Canada?

    Aren't a lot of US productions actually shot north of the border?

    Over here, we can refer to it as a tax on James Bond.

    They shot X-Files in Vancover in what is a pretty good studio complex though not as big as Shepperton or Pinewood and with crews which don't match the English ones (in my opinion). They also use Toronto to double up as Chicago which probably saves them some money. But there again liverpool has also been used as a substitute for Chicago for similar reasons
    Eyes Wide Shut was shot in England. Some of the New York street scenes were done where I was living north of Finsbury Square in EC2.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,112
    Andy_JS said:
    Interesting but extremely scattergun article. the most interesting thing is that Labour volk, when discussing local concerns, say the same things.

    We shall probably see Lab and Con coalesce around a slightly nationalist quasi 1950s social democracy platform, see and Reform do it better as they have no record to defend, so telling fibs is simpler.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,319
    @Reuters

    The unofficial version of Signal used by Trump's former National Security Adviser Mike Waltz has been hacked, tech site 404 Media said, raising further concern over the security of the communications exchanged at the highest levels of the US government

    https://x.com/Reuters/status/1919212962469847483
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,112
    edited 8:22AM
    Scott_xP said:

    @PawlowskiMario

    Trump officially entered the psychotic emperor phase. He’s not coming back. The Pope image was it. That was the line. He crossed it and kept walking.

    This isn’t trolling anymore. This is clinical delusion. The tariffs on movies. Reopening Alcatraz. These aren’t policies. This is a man deep in a psychotic loop thinking revenge is leadership and trolling is governance.

    He’s in a feedback loop with his cult. Every time he does something more insane, MAGA cheers louder. And every cheer convinces him he’s still the chosen one. So he takes it further. And further.

    He’s not trying to win. He’s trying to feel worship. He’s not making decisions. He’s playing dress-up in his own hallucination.

    And the worst part? His cult loves it. Because they’re broken like him. Because in their minds, every delusion he has is another way to “own the libs.”

    This is the loop now. The psychotic, delusional, final act. And MAGA is clapping along like it’s a church revival. No one’s driving the bus anymore. They’re just throwing gasoline and screaming kumbaya and Hallelujah.

    https://x.com/PawlowskiMario/status/1919195402693222763

    Scaramucci in 59 seconds - Trump is narcissism in a jar

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rSX6EuRJYJM
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,954
    Scott_xP said:

    @PawlowskiMario

    Trump officially entered the psychotic emperor phase. He’s not coming back. The Pope image was it. That was the line. He crossed it and kept walking.

    This isn’t trolling anymore. This is clinical delusion. The tariffs on movies. Reopening Alcatraz. These aren’t policies. This is a man deep in a psychotic loop thinking revenge is leadership and trolling is governance.

    He’s in a feedback loop with his cult. Every time he does something more insane, MAGA cheers louder. And every cheer convinces him he’s still the chosen one. So he takes it further. And further.

    He’s not trying to win. He’s trying to feel worship. He’s not making decisions. He’s playing dress-up in his own hallucination.

    And the worst part? His cult loves it. Because they’re broken like him. Because in their minds, every delusion he has is another way to “own the libs.”

    This is the loop now. The psychotic, delusional, final act. And MAGA is clapping along like it’s a church revival. No one’s driving the bus anymore. They’re just throwing gasoline and screaming kumbaya and Hallelujah.

    https://x.com/PawlowskiMario/status/1919195402693222763

    Yes that Pope thing felt like another level of NPD being breached. Sinister, scary, horrible.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,551
    edited 8:30AM

    Is this Movie tariff malarkey just another attack on Canada?

    Aren't a lot of US productions actually shot north of the border?

    Over here, we can refer to it as a tax on James Bond.

    Vancouver used to be very popular, but I think it is being use less and less these days as it is very expensive in Canada to do anything. Mexico city I believe is now an epicenter for US tv shows. Basically they go where ever the incentives are best. There are some random small cities in Mid West of US that get loads of usage because those states provided big tax breaks and they cheap to operate in.
    Interesting. I shot in both Mexico City and Vancover in the same year and they couldn't have been more different. They were both for US products-Pontiac in Mexico City and Maguires in Vancover. I never thought to ask why we were shooting in such odd locations as they were both basically studio shoots.

    The difference though was huge. In Mexico I had a crew of over 60 who were all hard workers if a little crude and half of whom were unnecessary and just there to assist the other 30.

    And Vancover which was the opposite. Everything was perfect. It could have been Germany. Smallish crew and nearly new equiptment but with a crew who were positively dangerous some of who would have been sacked on the spot if the shoot had been in England.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,396
    a
    MattW said:

    kamski said:

    kamski said:

    carnforth said:



    Is there a full list of policies which are beyond the pale? And who decides on that list?

    I'll attempt an answer. I'm not a lawyer, so this will probably be inaccurate.

    In the case of Germany, banning a party is governed by Article 21, Paragraph 2 of the Constitution. There's an explanation in English here.

    https://www.bmi.bund.de/EN/topics/constitution/law-political-parties/banning-pol-parties/banning-pol-parties.html

    a political party can only be banned by a decision of the Federal Constitutional Court

    A party may be banned only if it not only takes an anti-constitutional attitude but aims to act on that attitude in a militant and aggressive way. For a political party to be banned, it is therefore not sufficient that they challenge, refuse to recognise or reject the supreme values of our constitution or try to replace them with other values. Instead, the political party concerned must be out to deliberately undermine the functioning of Germany’s free democratic basic order. This presupposes that there must be specific and valid evidence suggesting that there is at least a possibility of the party’s activities being successful.


    What that means in practice is discussed here (in English) in the 2017 judgement of the Constitutional Court which decided that the NPD shouldn't be banned, despite seeking to undermine democracy

    https://www.bundesverfassungsgericht.de/SharedDocs/Entscheidungen/EN/2017/01/bs20170117_2bvb000113en.html

    It's quite long but this part summarises it:

    9. Measured against these standards, the application for prohibition is unfounded:
    a) The respondent seeks, by reason of its aims and the behaviour of its adherents, to abolish the free democratic basic order. The respondent intends to replace the existing constitutional system with an authoritarian national state that adheres to the idea of an ethnically defined “people’s community” (Volksgemeinschaft ). This political concept disregards the human dignity of all those who do not belong to its ethnically-defined Volksgemeinschaft and is thus incompatible with the principle of democracy as set out in the Basic Law.
    b) The respondent advocates aims which are directed against the free democratic basic order and systematically acts towards achieving those aims in a qualified manner.
    c) However, there are no specific and weighty indications suggesting even at least the possibility that these endeavours might be successful.


    You'd have to read more of it if you're interested in the reasons and evidence for its findings.

    (as an aside, key figures in the AfD are closely associated with the NPD, known as 'Die Heimat' since 2023)

    You compared Germany with the UK. I'm not a big fan of this as different countries have different rules, histories and contexts. Most European countries have banned political parties for various reasons since the Second World War. Usually it is parties that have insignificant electoral support - which is politically easier, though legally more problematic since rulings of the ECHR. France has banned several small parties (probably ignoring the ECHR case law in recent cases). Germany banned 2 'extremist' parties in the 1950s, and none since.

    Spain has banned electorally successful Basque separatist parties for being associated with terrorists. I don't know much about NI politics but Wikipedia tells me Sinn Fein was banned in 1956. So there are examples of parties with significant popular support being banned.

    Vlaams Blok was effectively disbanded by the courts in the Netherlands in 2004 for breaking anti-racism laws, despite being the biggest party at the time.
    In the UK the British Union of Fascists was banned in 1940 for national security reasons, and iirc Mosely was restricted to his mansion - I'm not sure if that was full house arrest.

    I'm not aware of others.
    Re Northern Ireland

    IIRC several very small organisations/parties that were supposed to be the political wings of various anti-Good-Friday splinter groups were banned.

    Again, IIRC, this was because they didn’t keep the drug dealing/murder compartmentalised into their illegal “twins”
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,954

    Christ, I just realised we are all falling into the Trump trap again....we are actually discussing seriously Trump latest brain dump of a policy as if somebody like Starmer had just announced it.

    1000 more days of this is not tenable. Something has to happen.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,869
    Israel to seize Gaza and hold it indefinitely

    Population to be forced southwards.

    I’m sure this will trigger the Gaza loons and embolden the Likudnik butchers.

    I was quite taken at the large amount of Palestinian flags flying in Birmingham around the Blues ground.

    https://news.sky.com/story/israel-approves-plan-to-seize-all-of-gaza-and-hold-it-indefinitely-officials-say-13362138
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,392

    With the virtual production capture volume technology now available, I would have thought having to be in a certain city to match the skyline etc is becoming far less important.

    No point getting all those lovely tax breaks if you have to spend the money on post-production effects to get the architecture right.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,805
    edited 8:40AM
    Taz said:

    Israel to seize Gaza and hold it indefinitely

    Population to be forced southwards.

    I’m sure this will trigger the Gaza loons and embolden the Likudnik butchers.

    I was quite taken at the large amount of Palestinian flags flying in Birmingham around the Blues ground.

    https://news.sky.com/story/israel-approves-plan-to-seize-all-of-gaza-and-hold-it-indefinitely-officials-say-13362138

    Israel have definitely given up on worrying what anybody else thinks about them. Long term it is a very poor strategy as countries from Europe will find such actions impossible to defend.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,805
    edited 8:46AM

    With the virtual production capture volume technology now available, I would have thought having to be in a certain city to match the skyline etc is becoming far less important.

    No point getting all those lovely tax breaks if you have to spend the money on post-production effects to get the architecture right.
    a) Virtual production doesn't work like that its an "in-camera" effect.
    b) It is cheaper as you can in real time change the backdrop / fix it up, as to the camera it is a real backdrop, rather than all the green screen work, so you can often just fix up the backdrop in engine (but most of it is done prior to shooting so you will know how it will look) and just do another take.
    c) VFX / post-production effects these days is a race to the bottom and very cheap. Huge amounts is outsourced to places like Hungary, Romania, Poland and India. Even these massive Hollywood blockbusters that cost $200-300m, the VFX budgets are now often really small as a percentage of the overall budget. Even the really high end shops like Double Negative use a lot of Indian labour.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,886
    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    I think if somebody had pitched Trump 2.0 first 100 days in office as a new Thick of It style tv show it would have got rejected for stretching the credibility of what could possibly happen far too much.

    Not so. We knew in advance that behind Trump lay Project 2025. It is only Trump himself who denied knowledge.

    How Trump fast-tracked Project 2025 and why it’s worse than you think
    To understand the 100-day sprint, you have to understand the long game that’s playing out behind the scenes, says Alex Hannaford. Now it is happening in real time, America is having to face up to the consequences of a new dictator class

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-project-2025-maga-b2742240.html
    It more the chaotic, poorly planned and thought out approach to everything e.g.the uninhibited island with penguins gets slapped with mega tariffs. We used a super complicated formula to decide on our tariff levels taking in lots of complicated metrics...what's the formula...here it is...see its complicated...hold on are you just multiplying two terms that cancel out, so all you have done is divided incoming vs outgoing....the list of this stuff goes on and on.
    Part of the plan, I fear. Govern by executive order; bypass Congress (even GOP-controlled Congress); ignore the courts. Flood the zone. Get inside opponents' OODA loop as people used to say but don't any more.

    That part is very well thought out. And if the details of tariffs are absurd, that merely reflects the expert consensus that it's a daft policy. That's why no experts were involved in drawing it up.

    As posted earlier, here is Ronald Reagan in two minutes explaining the case against tariffs:-
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Mj6N-WBPrVw
    I predict that we will get docudrama tagged as a documentary (docudrama ... drama not necessary) by the end of 2025, perhaps sooner. Perhaps the main deterrent would be Trump passing an Executive Order deporting all the participants to Guantanamo in cages.

    It's a propaganda gift to the opposition.

    There's enough material just in a handful of the Executive Orders, and the run up to them which is well attested.

    Trump is a performer himself, deliberately blurring fiction, delusion and his rose-tinted view of himself. It could transfer the other way, and Trump himself won't be able to tell the difference.

    @MarqueeMark may be the one to comment here.
    It seems to me he's actually getting worse as well. This has gone way beyond inane babbling about sharks and hurty feelings about being so unpopular.

    Is there a possibility, however remote, that things get so bad even Vance and the MAGA loons of Congress can't ignore it?
    Ignore what though? Trump has had some marble-loss moments but they were overshadowed by Biden's and hidden in a forest of gotchas from his opponents unable to tell when Trump is joking, like with the sharks and Pope picture and all the rest. Call it TDS.

    Trump has torn apart American civil structure and the checks and balances imposed by the Founding Fathers. That was intended as part of Project 2025.

    Trump has also trashed the economy which while cheered on by some might make those who lose out discover their backbones.
    On this one he has the time factor as in the UK. Here, Keir Starmer's policies are nowhere near working through - that will be 2026 or even 2027 for most of them to see clear results, or some may not be detectible by those not directly impacted.

    For Donald Trump, his cuts haven't hit his activist and voter support-base yet. The impact of tariffs and trade disruption will start to feed through soon, as may increases in the cost of drugs following cancellation of Biden's cost reduction scheme.

    But things like the proposed cuts to Medicaid (which Trump said would not be touched) are still in the budget reconciliation bill, and his gutting of the administrative state which delivers federal spending will have a gradual impact.
    Example of Starmer time scale: social care kicked out to new report in 2028; and according to media this morning, implementation by 2038!! (Dilnot was, IIRC, in 2013)

    This is right at the top of epic fails. People voted Labour in the expectation of the major Tory fails being sorted in a timely manner.

    Social care is just about unfixable unless you threw 4p on income tax.

    Heck go back to Rishi's solution 3p on National insurance and make pensioners pay it...
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 725
    Scott_xP said:

    @Reuters

    The unofficial version of Signal used by Trump's former National Security Adviser Mike Waltz has been hacked, tech site 404 Media said, raising further concern over the security of the communications exchanged at the highest levels of the US government

    https://x.com/Reuters/status/1919212962469847483

    Didn't Fascist Barbie state this was the most open government ever. What's the problem? ;)
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,869

    Taz said:

    Israel to seize Gaza and hold it indefinitely

    Population to be forced southwards.

    I’m sure this will trigger the Gaza loons and embolden the Likudnik butchers.

    I was quite taken at the large amount of Palestinian flags flying in Birmingham around the Blues ground.

    https://news.sky.com/story/israel-approves-plan-to-seize-all-of-gaza-and-hold-it-indefinitely-officials-say-13362138

    Israel have definitely given up on worrying what anybody else thinks about them. Long term it is a very poor strategy as countries from Europe will find such actions impossible to defend.
    True, but they have Trump onside at the moment and Europe really won’t do anything apart from huff and puff from the sidelines.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,805
    edited 8:51AM
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Israel to seize Gaza and hold it indefinitely

    Population to be forced southwards.

    I’m sure this will trigger the Gaza loons and embolden the Likudnik butchers.

    I was quite taken at the large amount of Palestinian flags flying in Birmingham around the Blues ground.

    https://news.sky.com/story/israel-approves-plan-to-seize-all-of-gaza-and-hold-it-indefinitely-officials-say-13362138

    Israel have definitely given up on worrying what anybody else thinks about them. Long term it is a very poor strategy as countries from Europe will find such actions impossible to defend.
    True, but they have Trump onside at the moment and Europe really won’t do anything apart from huff and puff from the sidelines.
    Depending on Trump for anything is a highly risky strategy, he might watch a Netflix show about dates, and decide 1000% tariffs on Israel as they are stealing the US dried fruit market.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,957
    The one who tried to make a Sun journalist’s breasts bigger using hypnotherapy.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,797

    NEW THREAD

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,396
    Battlebus said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Reuters

    The unofficial version of Signal used by Trump's former National Security Adviser Mike Waltz has been hacked, tech site 404 Media said, raising further concern over the security of the communications exchanged at the highest levels of the US government

    https://x.com/Reuters/status/1919212962469847483

    Didn't Fascist Barbie state this was the most open government ever. What's the problem? ;)
    There is a serious issue behind the bullshit.

    Signal is, essentially, WhatsApp 2.0, created by ex-WhatsApp guys who used the money from selling WhatsApp to Farcebook to create what they regarded as the best chat messaging software.

    Singal is very, very secure. It features end to end encryption - the messages are not accessible to the people running Signal.

    Signal is also open source - both server code and the apps. This means that anyone can see and check for backdoors or vulnerabilities.

    Signal allow people to clone the code and create their own apps. You can create your own Signal clone app, and cloned server and setup your own, completely independent system.

    What TeleMessage (the company in the above story) did was to add a backdoor into their Signal clone. Effectively, a third party in every chat. This is supposed to be for storing the messages, unencrypted, but secured. This is how they were breached. The maths says that once you allow such a backdoor, it’s merely a matter of time.

    In the U.K. the government is trying to ban end to end encryption. They always want a back door. Just like TeleMessage had.

    Signal is talking about pulling out if the U.K. because of this.

    This is what happens when you have back doors. People break in.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,464
    eek said:

    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    I think if somebody had pitched Trump 2.0 first 100 days in office as a new Thick of It style tv show it would have got rejected for stretching the credibility of what could possibly happen far too much.

    Not so. We knew in advance that behind Trump lay Project 2025. It is only Trump himself who denied knowledge.

    How Trump fast-tracked Project 2025 and why it’s worse than you think
    To understand the 100-day sprint, you have to understand the long game that’s playing out behind the scenes, says Alex Hannaford. Now it is happening in real time, America is having to face up to the consequences of a new dictator class

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-project-2025-maga-b2742240.html
    It more the chaotic, poorly planned and thought out approach to everything e.g.the uninhibited island with penguins gets slapped with mega tariffs. We used a super complicated formula to decide on our tariff levels taking in lots of complicated metrics...what's the formula...here it is...see its complicated...hold on are you just multiplying two terms that cancel out, so all you have done is divided incoming vs outgoing....the list of this stuff goes on and on.
    Part of the plan, I fear. Govern by executive order; bypass Congress (even GOP-controlled Congress); ignore the courts. Flood the zone. Get inside opponents' OODA loop as people used to say but don't any more.

    That part is very well thought out. And if the details of tariffs are absurd, that merely reflects the expert consensus that it's a daft policy. That's why no experts were involved in drawing it up.

    As posted earlier, here is Ronald Reagan in two minutes explaining the case against tariffs:-
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Mj6N-WBPrVw
    I predict that we will get docudrama tagged as a documentary (docudrama ... drama not necessary) by the end of 2025, perhaps sooner. Perhaps the main deterrent would be Trump passing an Executive Order deporting all the participants to Guantanamo in cages.

    It's a propaganda gift to the opposition.

    There's enough material just in a handful of the Executive Orders, and the run up to them which is well attested.

    Trump is a performer himself, deliberately blurring fiction, delusion and his rose-tinted view of himself. It could transfer the other way, and Trump himself won't be able to tell the difference.

    @MarqueeMark may be the one to comment here.
    It seems to me he's actually getting worse as well. This has gone way beyond inane babbling about sharks and hurty feelings about being so unpopular.

    Is there a possibility, however remote, that things get so bad even Vance and the MAGA loons of Congress can't ignore it?
    Ignore what though? Trump has had some marble-loss moments but they were overshadowed by Biden's and hidden in a forest of gotchas from his opponents unable to tell when Trump is joking, like with the sharks and Pope picture and all the rest. Call it TDS.

    Trump has torn apart American civil structure and the checks and balances imposed by the Founding Fathers. That was intended as part of Project 2025.

    Trump has also trashed the economy which while cheered on by some might make those who lose out discover their backbones.
    On this one he has the time factor as in the UK. Here, Keir Starmer's policies are nowhere near working through - that will be 2026 or even 2027 for most of them to see clear results, or some may not be detectible by those not directly impacted.

    For Donald Trump, his cuts haven't hit his activist and voter support-base yet. The impact of tariffs and trade disruption will start to feed through soon, as may increases in the cost of drugs following cancellation of Biden's cost reduction scheme.

    But things like the proposed cuts to Medicaid (which Trump said would not be touched) are still in the budget reconciliation bill, and his gutting of the administrative state which delivers federal spending will have a gradual impact.
    Example of Starmer time scale: social care kicked out to new report in 2028; and according to media this morning, implementation by 2038!! (Dilnot was, IIRC, in 2013)

    This is right at the top of epic fails. People voted Labour in the expectation of the major Tory fails being sorted in a timely manner.

    Social care is just about unfixable unless you threw 4p on income tax.

    Heck go back to Rishi's solution 3p on National insurance and make pensioners pay it...
    But, above all, we don't want to pay more tax. And in a debate between "we need to pay more tax" and "woke four star council biscuits for illegals", the first proposition loses, no matter what the quality of the argument is.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,023

    The one who tried to make a Sun journalist’s breasts bigger using hypnotherapy.
    Polanski by name, Polanski by nature.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,112
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Israel to seize Gaza and hold it indefinitely

    Population to be forced southwards.

    I’m sure this will trigger the Gaza loons and embolden the Likudnik butchers.

    I was quite taken at the large amount of Palestinian flags flying in Birmingham around the Blues ground.

    https://news.sky.com/story/israel-approves-plan-to-seize-all-of-gaza-and-hold-it-indefinitely-officials-say-13362138

    Israel have definitely given up on worrying what anybody else thinks about them. Long term it is a very poor strategy as countries from Europe will find such actions impossible to defend.
    True, but they have Trump onside at the moment and Europe really won’t do anything apart from huff and puff from the sidelines.
    One encouraging thing is they seem less and less to have Israeli public opinion onside. Not through a softening towards the Palestinians (polls appear to show the opposite) but from war fatigue and dislike of Netanyahu.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,551

    Battlebus said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Reuters

    The unofficial version of Signal used by Trump's former National Security Adviser Mike Waltz has been hacked, tech site 404 Media said, raising further concern over the security of the communications exchanged at the highest levels of the US government

    https://x.com/Reuters/status/1919212962469847483

    Didn't Fascist Barbie state this was the most open government ever. What's the problem? ;)
    There is a serious issue behind the bullshit.

    Signal is, essentially, WhatsApp 2.0, created by ex-WhatsApp guys who used the money from selling WhatsApp to Farcebook to create what they regarded as the best chat messaging software.

    Singal is very, very secure. It features end to end encryption - the messages are not accessible to the people running Signal.

    Signal is also open source - both server code and the apps. This means that anyone can see and check for backdoors or vulnerabilities.

    Signal allow people to clone the code and create their own apps. You can create your own Signal clone app, and cloned server and setup your own, completely independent system.

    What TeleMessage (the company in the above story) did was to add a backdoor into their Signal clone. Effectively, a third party in every chat. This is supposed to be for storing the messages, unencrypted, but secured. This is how they were breached. The maths says that once you allow such a backdoor, it’s merely a matter of time.

    In the U.K. the government is trying to ban end to end encryption. They always want a back door. Just like TeleMessage had.

    Signal is talking about pulling out if the U.K. because of this.

    This is what happens when you have back doors. People break in.
    I don't give a fig. If US government people used a scif or used government servers they wouldn't be hacked.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,900
    Roger said:

    Is this Movie tariff malarkey just another attack on Canada?

    Aren't a lot of US productions actually shot north of the border?

    Over here, we can refer to it as a tax on James Bond.

    Vancouver used to be very popular, but I think it is being use less and less these days as it is very expensive in Canada to do anything. Mexico city I believe is now an epicenter for US tv shows. Basically they go where ever the incentives are best. There are some random small cities in Mid West of US that get loads of usage because those states provided big tax breaks and they cheap to operate in.
    Interesting. I shot in both Mexico City and Vancover in the same year and they couldn't have been more different. They were both for US products-Pontiac in Mexico City and Maguires in Vancover. I never thought to ask why we were shooting in such odd locations as they were both basically studio shoots.

    The difference though was huge. In Mexico I had a crew of over 60 who were all hard workers if a little crude and half of whom were unnecessary and just there to assist the other 30.

    And Vancover which was the opposite. Everything was perfect. It could have been Germany. Smallish crew and nearly new equiptment but with a crew who were positively dangerous some of who would have been sacked on the spot if the shoot had been in England.
    What does "positively dangerous" imply in that context?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,410
    kamski said:

    carnforth said:



    Is there a full list of policies which are beyond the pale? And who decides on that list?

    I'll attempt an answer. I'm not a lawyer, so this will probably be inaccurate.

    In the case of Germany, banning a party is governed by Article 21, Paragraph 2 of the Constitution. There's an explanation in English here.

    https://www.bmi.bund.de/EN/topics/constitution/law-political-parties/banning-pol-parties/banning-pol-parties.html

    a political party can only be banned by a decision of the Federal Constitutional Court

    A party may be banned only if it not only takes an anti-constitutional attitude but aims to act on that attitude in a militant and aggressive way. For a political party to be banned, it is therefore not sufficient that they challenge, refuse to recognise or reject the supreme values of our constitution or try to replace them with other values. Instead, the political party concerned must be out to deliberately undermine the functioning of Germany’s free democratic basic order. This presupposes that there must be specific and valid evidence suggesting that there is at least a possibility of the party’s activities being successful.


    What that means in practice is discussed here (in English) in the 2017 judgement of the Constitutional Court which decided that the NPD shouldn't be banned, despite seeking to undermine democracy

    https://www.bundesverfassungsgericht.de/SharedDocs/Entscheidungen/EN/2017/01/bs20170117_2bvb000113en.html

    It's quite long but this part summarises it:

    9. Measured against these standards, the application for prohibition is unfounded:
    a) The respondent seeks, by reason of its aims and the behaviour of its adherents, to abolish the free democratic basic order. The respondent intends to replace the existing constitutional system with an authoritarian national state that adheres to the idea of an ethnically defined “people’s community” (Volksgemeinschaft ). This political concept disregards the human dignity of all those who do not belong to its ethnically-defined Volksgemeinschaft and is thus incompatible with the principle of democracy as set out in the Basic Law.
    b) The respondent advocates aims which are directed against the free democratic basic order and systematically acts towards achieving those aims in a qualified manner.
    c) However, there are no specific and weighty indications suggesting even at least the possibility that these endeavours might be successful.


    You'd have to read more of it if you're interested in the reasons and evidence for its findings.

    (as an aside, key figures in the AfD are closely associated with the NPD, known as 'Die Heimat' since 2023)

    The clear implication of the 2017 decision on the NPD by the Constitutional Court (which discusses % votes the NPD won), is that if the NPD increased its vote share enough it would then be banned. This might be in line with ECHR case law that states that banning a party can only happen if they pose a significant threat. But it's stupid in practical terms - much better if you're going to ban them to do it before lots of people vote for them.

    Vlaams Blok had to reform under a different name, and change some of their racist policies to comply with the law, but is still going under the name Vlaams Belang.

    The there is the case of Golden Dawn in Greece, which I don't think was banned, but its leadership was tried and convicted of various crimes like murder, attempted murder. Of course they claimed to be victims of a political witch hunt, but in this case it seems the public believed the evidence against them.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,132
    eek said:

    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    I think if somebody had pitched Trump 2.0 first 100 days in office as a new Thick of It style tv show it would have got rejected for stretching the credibility of what could possibly happen far too much.

    Not so. We knew in advance that behind Trump lay Project 2025. It is only Trump himself who denied knowledge.

    How Trump fast-tracked Project 2025 and why it’s worse than you think
    To understand the 100-day sprint, you have to understand the long game that’s playing out behind the scenes, says Alex Hannaford. Now it is happening in real time, America is having to face up to the consequences of a new dictator class

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-project-2025-maga-b2742240.html
    It more the chaotic, poorly planned and thought out approach to everything e.g.the uninhibited island with penguins gets slapped with mega tariffs. We used a super complicated formula to decide on our tariff levels taking in lots of complicated metrics...what's the formula...here it is...see its complicated...hold on are you just multiplying two terms that cancel out, so all you have done is divided incoming vs outgoing....the list of this stuff goes on and on.
    Part of the plan, I fear. Govern by executive order; bypass Congress (even GOP-controlled Congress); ignore the courts. Flood the zone. Get inside opponents' OODA loop as people used to say but don't any more.

    That part is very well thought out. And if the details of tariffs are absurd, that merely reflects the expert consensus that it's a daft policy. That's why no experts were involved in drawing it up.

    As posted earlier, here is Ronald Reagan in two minutes explaining the case against tariffs:-
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Mj6N-WBPrVw
    I predict that we will get docudrama tagged as a documentary (docudrama ... drama not necessary) by the end of 2025, perhaps sooner. Perhaps the main deterrent would be Trump passing an Executive Order deporting all the participants to Guantanamo in cages.

    It's a propaganda gift to the opposition.

    There's enough material just in a handful of the Executive Orders, and the run up to them which is well attested.

    Trump is a performer himself, deliberately blurring fiction, delusion and his rose-tinted view of himself. It could transfer the other way, and Trump himself won't be able to tell the difference.

    @MarqueeMark may be the one to comment here.
    It seems to me he's actually getting worse as well. This has gone way beyond inane babbling about sharks and hurty feelings about being so unpopular.

    Is there a possibility, however remote, that things get so bad even Vance and the MAGA loons of Congress can't ignore it?
    Ignore what though? Trump has had some marble-loss moments but they were overshadowed by Biden's and hidden in a forest of gotchas from his opponents unable to tell when Trump is joking, like with the sharks and Pope picture and all the rest. Call it TDS.

    Trump has torn apart American civil structure and the checks and balances imposed by the Founding Fathers. That was intended as part of Project 2025.

    Trump has also trashed the economy which while cheered on by some might make those who lose out discover their backbones.
    On this one he has the time factor as in the UK. Here, Keir Starmer's policies are nowhere near working through - that will be 2026 or even 2027 for most of them to see clear results, or some may not be detectible by those not directly impacted.

    For Donald Trump, his cuts haven't hit his activist and voter support-base yet. The impact of tariffs and trade disruption will start to feed through soon, as may increases in the cost of drugs following cancellation of Biden's cost reduction scheme.

    But things like the proposed cuts to Medicaid (which Trump said would not be touched) are still in the budget reconciliation bill, and his gutting of the administrative state which delivers federal spending will have a gradual impact.
    Example of Starmer time scale: social care kicked out to new report in 2028; and according to media this morning, implementation by 2038!! (Dilnot was, IIRC, in 2013)

    This is right at the top of epic fails. People voted Labour in the expectation of the major Tory fails being sorted in a timely manner.

    Social care is just about unfixable unless you threw 4p on income tax.

    Heck go back to Rishi's solution 3p on National insurance and make pensioners pay it...
    Usual greedy gits wanting to demonise and impoverish pensioners
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,789
    Eco-populism? What's that got to do with the Trans debate? This person has no place in the Green Party.

    I wish him well in his campaign for the leadership.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,596
    If The Donald imposed a 150% TARIFF on the posts of @Scott_xP the bloke would be driven into bankruptcy in a matter of hours.
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