Seems doubtful that their vetting will have improved but surely it would be more reasonable to hope that it hasn't. It seems that people will only learn by lived experience, if even then, sadly they'll have to experience that voting Reform will mean a collapse in local services, incompetence and farce.
Problem that is exactly what we are seeing now from labour and conservative councils
(1) The challenge the Conservatives face was well described on the last thread: how do they simultaneously appeal to those they have lost to Reform, and those they have lost to the Liberal Democrats.
It is clear that they have to tack right: but if they do that, how do they even begin to differentiate themselves from Reform, especially as all Reform needs to do is to attack them for their previous period in government?
(2) The fragmentation of voting patterns is on a scale we've never seen before. Reform is winning close to half of all councillors. But it's doing in on an National Equivalent Vote share that is only a few point more than the LibDems managed in 2009.
We see this is the Mayoral elections: winning parties are coming in with sub 30% numbers. We could see MPs - multiple MPs - elected with less than a quarter of the vote in 2029.
Reform are a political Black Hole. A Nigel-sized singularity which is now sucking everything else towards it.
Whilst there is a major challenge for the Tories as described, the gravitational challenge for Labour is just as existential.
What is at the heart of the Black Hole? The need to significantly reform the UK from top to bottom. Labour and the Tories can't tack their way around the edges of the event horizon - they'll get torn apart. Their only solution is to become a bigger black hole.
How do you defeat populism? By fixing the problems that drive populism. In this country that means fixing public services, making work pay, putting the pride back into our communities. You can't do that by cutting WFA or scrapping HS2 or performative tossery about penises.
Very eloquent. The British state is now failing on every level - we can all see it with our own eyes on our own streets. It can’t even police our borders and protect British people from hostile foreign invaders - state failure doesn’t get more basic than that
So we need an absolute reset from top to bottom. A peaceful revolution and a total rethink
The only party offering that, by definition, must be a new outsider party. They may well fail - who knows, it doesn’t look good - but the voters are now desperate
Is any PB still gonna trot out their "Farage is a useless chancer" bollocks?
I hope not, after this. It would be embarrassing, to put it lightly
Farage wouldn't be the first "useless chancer" to become PM, if indeed he makes it that far.
Do you still believe he is a "uselss chancer"?
In a way, I really hope you do, and that you explain your workings here. It will add to the gaiety of the nation
He’s had a huge impact on the UK and I get people like him. But I think personally he’s a cancer on the UK .
Which is fine and understandable
The people I’m mocking are the PBers who continually insist Farage is useless at politics, “he never won a seat in the commons” - oops - “he just got lucky”, he was “nothing to do with brexit winning”
Being a useless chancer isn’t incompatible with persuasively selling a lot of folk some snake oil. Indeed there’s a considerable overlap in the skills required.
Is any PB still gonna trot out their "Farage is a useless chancer" bollocks?
I hope not, after this. It would be embarrassing, to put it lightly
Farage wouldn't be the first "useless chancer" to become PM, if indeed he makes it that far.
Do you still believe he is a "uselss chancer"?
In a way, I really hope you do, and that you explain your workings here. It will add to the gaiety of the nation
He’s had a huge impact on the UK and I get people like him. But I think personally he’s a cancer on the UK .
Which is fine and understandable
The people I’m mocking are the PBers who continually insist Farage is useless at politics, “he never won a seat in the commons” - oops - “he just got lucky”, he was “nothing to do with brexit winning”
Being a useless chancer isn’t incompatible with persuasively selling a lot of folk some snake oil. Indeed there’s a considerable overlap in the skills required.
Saying such things is just fucking stupid at this point - but then, it is you talking
Farage is a politician. In what possible universe - outside of your miniature brain - is he “useless” at politics given the course of British history this last decade? He’s started or harnessed TWO parties and used both to change the course of our politics very dramatically. Yours is a laughable perspective. Childishly dim
Well Farage will never get the Rejoin/Liberal Left/Atheist vote but you know what? I think he can live with that.
(1) The challenge the Conservatives face was well described on the last thread: how do they simultaneously appeal to those they have lost to Reform, and those they have lost to the Liberal Democrats.
It is clear that they have to tack right: but if they do that, how do they even begin to differentiate themselves from Reform, especially as all Reform needs to do is to attack them for their previous period in government?
(2) The fragmentation of voting patterns is on a scale we've never seen before. Reform is winning close to half of all councillors. But it's doing in on an National Equivalent Vote share that is only a few point more than the LibDems managed in 2009.
We see this is the Mayoral elections: winning parties are coming in with sub 30% numbers. We could see MPs - multiple MPs - elected with less than a quarter of the vote in 2029.
Reform are a political Black Hole. A Nigel-sized singularity which is now sucking everything else towards it.
Whilst there is a major challenge for the Tories as described, the gravitational challenge for Labour is just as existential.
What is at the heart of the Black Hole? The need to significantly reform the UK from top to bottom. Labour and the Tories can't tack their way around the edges of the event horizon - they'll get torn apart. Their only solution is to become a bigger black hole.
How do you defeat populism? By fixing the problems that drive populism. In this country that means fixing public services, making work pay, putting the pride back into our communities. You can't do that by cutting WFA or scrapping HS2 or performative tossery about penises.
The biggest reasons people have for voting Reform are "another party needs a go" and "their policies on immigration". What do you suggest mainstream parties should do about immigration?
(1) The challenge the Conservatives face was well described on the last thread: how do they simultaneously appeal to those they have lost to Reform, and those they have lost to the Liberal Democrats.
It is clear that they have to tack right: but if they do that, how do they even begin to differentiate themselves from Reform, especially as all Reform needs to do is to attack them for their previous period in government?
(2) The fragmentation of voting patterns is on a scale we've never seen before. Reform is winning close to half of all councillors. But it's doing in on an National Equivalent Vote share that is only a few point more than the LibDems managed in 2009.
We see this is the Mayoral elections: winning parties are coming in with sub 30% numbers. We could see MPs - multiple MPs - elected with less than a quarter of the vote in 2029.
Reform are a political Black Hole. A Nigel-sized singularity which is now sucking everything else towards it.
Whilst there is a major challenge for the Tories as described, the gravitational challenge for Labour is just as existential.
What is at the heart of the Black Hole? The need to significantly reform the UK from top to bottom. Labour and the Tories can't tack their way around the edges of the event horizon - they'll get torn apart. Their only solution is to become a bigger black hole.
How do you defeat populism? By fixing the problems that drive populism. In this country that means fixing public services, making work pay, putting the pride back into our communities. You can't do that by cutting WFA or scrapping HS2 or performative tossery about penises.
The biggest reasons people have for voting Reform are "another party needs a go" and "their policies on immigration". What do you suggest mainstream parties should do about immigration?
Yup, Labour (and the Tories) need to hit the pause button on immigration tomorrow including no more new asylum seekers and deportations of existing ones. Suspend the HRA for the next 4 years and get them all out of the country, no more article 8, no more boat arrivals, no more minimum wage workers bringing 5 dependents with them.
Council results beyond their wildest dreams, and a win in Runcorn, no matter how narrow. At least one and probably two mayors as well. It could have been even better, they missed out on three more mayors by fractions, but they have delivered a revolution.
Lib Dems: 6.5
Very solid set of council results, though will be disappointed to miss Devon. Other opportunities still in the bag though. Also disappointing if they've missed out on the target Hull & E Riding mayoralty.
Green: 6
Similar to the Lib Dems. Another advance across council chamber but missing the bigger prizes, including the West of England mayor, for which they had been favourites.
Labour: 1.5
Catastrophic. Down two-thirds in councillors and dicing with the Greens for fourth place (of fifth, if you count independents), which is awful even allowing for the notionally Con/LD-friendly round of elections. The only bright spark was holding three mayoralties (just) - though even that could be a mixed blessing if they become straws to be grasped.
Tories: 0.5
Extinction level event. This is probably what the Liberals felt like in 1918. Half a point for winning the Cambs mayor, against which the caveat noted on Labour also applies.
As I’ve said a few times
Kemi Badenoch = Herbert Samuel.
Herbert Samuel's Liberals are still around though, were in government a decade ago, have over 70 MPs and have just come second it looks like in the local elections. They never merged with Labour even after they overtook them on votes and seats (albeit 50 years later they did merge with the Labour splinter group of the SDP to form today's Liberal Democrats)
PM Carney reveals that King Charles will give the equivalent of the King’s Speech at the end of this month at the reopening of Canada’s Parliament… monarchists in Canada have called this “a great show of sovereignty” for Canada…
(1) The challenge the Conservatives face was well described on the last thread: how do they simultaneously appeal to those they have lost to Reform, and those they have lost to the Liberal Democrats.
It is clear that they have to tack right: but if they do that, how do they even begin to differentiate themselves from Reform, especially as all Reform needs to do is to attack them for their previous period in government?
(2) The fragmentation of voting patterns is on a scale we've never seen before. Reform is winning close to half of all councillors. But it's doing in on an National Equivalent Vote share that is only a few point more than the LibDems managed in 2009.
We see this is the Mayoral elections: winning parties are coming in with sub 30% numbers. We could see MPs - multiple MPs - elected with less than a quarter of the vote in 2029.
Reform are a political Black Hole. A Nigel-sized singularity which is now sucking everything else towards it.
Whilst there is a major challenge for the Tories as described, the gravitational challenge for Labour is just as existential.
What is at the heart of the Black Hole? The need to significantly reform the UK from top to bottom. Labour and the Tories can't tack their way around the edges of the event horizon - they'll get torn apart. Their only solution is to become a bigger black hole.
How do you defeat populism? By fixing the problems that drive populism. In this country that means fixing public services, making work pay, putting the pride back into our communities. You can't do that by cutting WFA or scrapping HS2 or performative tossery about penises.
Very eloquent. The British state is now failing on every level - we can all see it with our own eyes on our own streets. It can’t even police our borders and protect British people from hostile foreign invaders - state failure doesn’t get more basic than that
So we need an absolute reset from top to bottom. A peaceful revolution and a total rethink
The only party offering that, by definition, must be a new outsider party. They may well fail - who knows, it doesn’t look good - but the voters are now desperate
Reform are the right party at the right time
The feeling that shoplifting is out of control is a major aspect of it as well.
Is any PB still gonna trot out their "Farage is a useless chancer" bollocks?
I hope not, after this. It would be embarrassing, to put it lightly
Farage wouldn't be the first "useless chancer" to become PM, if indeed he makes it that far.
Do you still believe he is a "uselss chancer"?
In a way, I really hope you do, and that you explain your workings here. It will add to the gaiety of the nation
He’s had a huge impact on the UK and I get people like him. But I think personally he’s a cancer on the UK .
Which is fine and understandable
The people I’m mocking are the PBers who continually insist Farage is useless at politics, “he never won a seat in the commons” - oops - “he just got lucky”, he was “nothing to do with brexit winning”
Being a useless chancer isn’t incompatible with persuasively selling a lot of folk some snake oil. Indeed there’s a considerable overlap in the skills required.
I think it's the word 'useless' which I'd question, given where he's got to.
Boris was essentially useless, achieving nothing that wasn’t damaging to his party, his country, and ultimately to himself, despite being skilled at working his way to the top.
Does campaigning prowess correlate with ability to govern? - the evidence for "no" is considerable.
PM Carney reveals that King Charles will give the equivalent of the King’s Speech at the end of this month at the reopening of Canada’s Parliament… monarchists in Canada have called this “a great show of sovereignty” for Canada…
Means the King will visit Canada before Trump's state visit here then and give the first monarch's opening of the Canadian Parliament for nearly half a century
PM Carney reveals that King Charles will give the equivalent of the King’s Speech at the end of this month at the reopening of Canada’s Parliament… monarchists in Canada have called this “a great show of sovereignty” for Canada…
Clearly a good night for Reform and Bad night for the Conservatives, but on a low turn out an in a relatively no impact election 4 years away from a General Election, Farage has clearly moved from being a strong communicator ( I personally dislike him) to create a larger national organisation with some credible figures ( Andrea Jenkyn's for one ) How Reform perform under greater scrutiny build a team instead of being a one man show I am not convinced. But certainly a good night for them and the loss of Councillors by the Conservatives and Labour will make rebuilding harder for both parties.
Clearly a good night for Reform and Bad night for the Conservatives, but on a low turn out an in a relatively no impact election 4 years away from a General Election, Farage has clearly moved from being a strong communicator ( I personally dislike him) to create a larger national organisation with some credible figures ( Andrea Jenkyn's for one ) How Reform perform under greater scrutiny build a team instead of being a one man show I am not convinced. But certainly a good night for them and the loss of Councillors by the Conservatives and Labour will make rebuilding harder for both parties.
Do we know what the turnout was? Because in Runcorn it was quite respectable. Also looking forward to seeing the projected national share from John Curtice.
Before today one of the things I thought was holding back a Reform replacement of the Tories was that the Tories would remain, in some places, the preserve of the right wing voter - typically the more affluent, southern/south-midlands, rural council areas.
But now we’ve seen REFUK:
- the largest party on Worcestershire CC; - the largest party on Warwickshire CC; - 11 seats in Gloucestershire; - second largest party (18 seats) in Devon;
Admittedly there are places like Oxfordshire where they’re still struggling, and I expect they won’t do tremendous trade in Bucks (though they seem to be doing ok in Herts). But they’re clearly a more national force than we perhaps expected them to be. And that bodes badly for the Tories.
Derbyshire Durham Kent Lancashire Lincolnshire Nottinghamshire Staffordshire
Reform largest party - Able to form a working majority if they can persuade the Tories to join them.
Leicestershire Warwickshire Worcestershire
Tory largest party - Able to form a working majority if they can persuade Reform to join them.
Northumberland
Lib Dem largest party - Able to form a working majority if they can persuade the Greens to join them.
Devon Gloucestershire
I expect Cambridgeshire to go Lib Dem overall majority. The others I don't really know yet. Some are VERY late in starting counting.
Cambs would be done were it not for the peculiar slowness of the city. With Labour having such a bad night, surely the LibDems will regain enough of wards they’ve held in the past there, to capture the whole county.
I dunno, I think it has a fair chance to stay no overall control. The LDs need another five seats for a majority out of the total 12 city seats. They won three in 2021, with the rest Labour, and presumably will retain those three. Maybe they can take another two, but maybe not.
Five seats in the city ought to be achievable with Labour flat on its back. I'm not familiar with the latest boundaries but the city centre normally delivers three, the posh suburbs to the south one or two, plus one from Chesterton makes five
(1) The challenge the Conservatives face was well described on the last thread: how do they simultaneously appeal to those they have lost to Reform, and those they have lost to the Liberal Democrats.
It is clear that they have to tack right: but if they do that, how do they even begin to differentiate themselves from Reform, especially as all Reform needs to do is to attack them for their previous period in government?
(2) The fragmentation of voting patterns is on a scale we've never seen before. Reform is winning close to half of all councillors. But it's doing in on an National Equivalent Vote share that is only a few point more than the LibDems managed in 2009.
We see this is the Mayoral elections: winning parties are coming in with sub 30% numbers. We could see MPs - multiple MPs - elected with less than a quarter of the vote in 2029.
Reform are a political Black Hole. A Nigel-sized singularity which is now sucking everything else towards it.
Whilst there is a major challenge for the Tories as described, the gravitational challenge for Labour is just as existential.
What is at the heart of the Black Hole? The need to significantly reform the UK from top to bottom. Labour and the Tories can't tack their way around the edges of the event horizon - they'll get torn apart. Their only solution is to become a bigger black hole.
How do you defeat populism? By fixing the problems that drive populism. In this country that means fixing public services, making work pay, putting the pride back into our communities. You can't do that by cutting WFA or scrapping HS2 or performative tossery about penises.
The biggest reasons people have for voting Reform are "another party needs a go" and "their policies on immigration". What do you suggest mainstream parties should do about immigration?
Yup, Labour (and the Tories) need to hit the pause button on immigration tomorrow including no more new asylum seekers and deportations of existing ones. Suspend the HRA for the next 4 years and get them all out of the country, no more article 8, no more boat arrivals, no more minimum wage workers bringing 5 dependents with them.
Exactly right. Something much much tougher, much more like the Danish Social Democrats - who WIN with this kind of policy, yet remain on the Left otherwise
They are an actual living example of what leftwing parties MUST do, to beat the alt.right: right there, in the EU, getting it done
Yet the Left (and centre Right) is too wedded to its Woke religion - at least in the UK - so they won't
One possible strategy is Bobby J could bring Lowe in as shadow Home Sec and try and outflank Farage to his right.
If he could also persuade someone like Jeremy Hunt to be Shadow Chancellor then it could be a formidable combination.
I think this is the only combination that works for the Tories, they need to be on the right, repudiate the Boriswave and apologise to the country for importing en masse people who are culturally completely alien to our own. A complete pause on immigration from poor countries has got the be the answer, Labour and the Tories really need to arrive to that conclusion sooner rather than later, raise the immigration barrier to £60k in London and SE and £50k elsewhere, no exemptions for any industries, limit student visas to redbrick universities and make them bid for a maximum of 20k per year, and above all pause asylum seeking for the next 4 years and deport the ones we do have that are in hotels.
(1) The challenge the Conservatives face was well described on the last thread: how do they simultaneously appeal to those they have lost to Reform, and those they have lost to the Liberal Democrats.
It is clear that they have to tack right: but if they do that, how do they even begin to differentiate themselves from Reform, especially as all Reform needs to do is to attack them for their previous period in government?
(2) The fragmentation of voting patterns is on a scale we've never seen before. Reform is winning close to half of all councillors. But it's doing in on an National Equivalent Vote share that is only a few point more than the LibDems managed in 2009.
We see this is the Mayoral elections: winning parties are coming in with sub 30% numbers. We could see MPs - multiple MPs - elected with less than a quarter of the vote in 2029.
Reform are a political Black Hole. A Nigel-sized singularity which is now sucking everything else towards it.
Whilst there is a major challenge for the Tories as described, the gravitational challenge for Labour is just as existential.
What is at the heart of the Black Hole? The need to significantly reform the UK from top to bottom. Labour and the Tories can't tack their way around the edges of the event horizon - they'll get torn apart. Their only solution is to become a bigger black hole.
How do you defeat populism? By fixing the problems that drive populism. In this country that means fixing public services, making work pay, putting the pride back into our communities. You can't do that by cutting WFA or scrapping HS2 or performative tossery about penises.
The biggest reasons people have for voting Reform are "another party needs a go" and "their policies on immigration". What do you suggest mainstream parties should do about immigration?
PM Carney reveals that King Charles will give the equivalent of the King’s Speech at the end of this month at the reopening of Canada’s Parliament… monarchists in Canada have called this “a great show of sovereignty” for Canada…
Just in from a LD source: party "increasingly confident Lib Dems will finish ahead of both the Tories and Labour at the local elections for the first time ever (in terms of councillor numbers elected)" in this round of voting
(1) The challenge the Conservatives face was well described on the last thread: how do they simultaneously appeal to those they have lost to Reform, and those they have lost to the Liberal Democrats.
It is clear that they have to tack right: but if they do that, how do they even begin to differentiate themselves from Reform, especially as all Reform needs to do is to attack them for their previous period in government?
(2) The fragmentation of voting patterns is on a scale we've never seen before. Reform is winning close to half of all councillors. But it's doing in on an National Equivalent Vote share that is only a few point more than the LibDems managed in 2009.
We see this is the Mayoral elections: winning parties are coming in with sub 30% numbers. We could see MPs - multiple MPs - elected with less than a quarter of the vote in 2029.
Reform are a political Black Hole. A Nigel-sized singularity which is now sucking everything else towards it.
Whilst there is a major challenge for the Tories as described, the gravitational challenge for Labour is just as existential.
What is at the heart of the Black Hole? The need to significantly reform the UK from top to bottom. Labour and the Tories can't tack their way around the edges of the event horizon - they'll get torn apart. Their only solution is to become a bigger black hole.
How do you defeat populism? By fixing the problems that drive populism. In this country that means fixing public services, making work pay, putting the pride back into our communities. You can't do that by cutting WFA or scrapping HS2 or performative tossery about penises.
The biggest reasons people have for voting Reform are "another party needs a go" and "their policies on immigration". What do you suggest mainstream parties should do about immigration?
Tackle the problems blamed on immigration. Note where people are complaining. It isn't where jobs are plentiful and services are good. Immigrants are the problem because schools are poor and the NHS is sinking and there aren't any jobs and the council is broke and crime is high and and and
Go after these problems. With crime under control you can't blame immigrants. With NHS experiences transformed you can't blame migrants. With jobs paying the bills and easier to get you can't blame migrants.
Clearly a good night for Reform and Bad night for the Conservatives, but on a low turn out an in a relatively no impact election 4 years away from a General Election, Farage has clearly moved from being a strong communicator ( I personally dislike him) to create a larger national organisation with some credible figures ( Andrea Jenkyn's for one ) How Reform perform under greater scrutiny build a team instead of being a one man show I am not convinced. But certainly a good night for them and the loss of Councillors by the Conservatives and Labour will make rebuilding harder for both parties.
This also gives Reform a councillor base and an activist base for the next election as well as exactly,where to target.
One possible strategy is Bobby J could bring Lowe in as shadow Home Sec and try and outflank Farage to his right.
I know the Tories are planning on going big on Farage following Trump’s orders to take back Shamima Begum.
So the Tory principle will be let Bangladesh deal with a problem we created.
Now granted it’s just about the only thing I agree with Farage and Trump about but a country should be responsible for its screw ups and shouldn’t try to dump them on others
Is any PB still gonna trot out their "Farage is a useless chancer" bollocks?
I hope not, after this. It would be embarrassing, to put it lightly
Farage wouldn't be the first "useless chancer" to become PM, if indeed he makes it that far.
Do you still believe he is a "uselss chancer"?
In a way, I really hope you do, and that you explain your workings here. It will add to the gaiety of the nation
He’s had a huge impact on the UK and I get people like him. But I think personally he’s a cancer on the UK .
Which is fine and understandable
The people I’m mocking are the PBers who continually insist Farage is useless at politics, “he never won a seat in the commons” - oops - “he just got lucky”, he was “nothing to do with brexit winning”
I wonder if anyone still thinks Reform’s performance is “underwhelming.”
Indeed. And remember when Farage proved these fools wrong, and actually DID win a seat in the Commons
What did we hear then? "Oh he's so lazy, he doesn't care, he'll never go to Clacton, it's his last hurrah and he'll spend more time in Mar e Lago than the UK, he's a useless chancer, a USELESS CHANCER"
Well, now we know what Farage did after he won his seat in Clacton. He quietly built a local political base capable of winning many hundreds of council seats, and installing 600 councillors from scratch, and taking over 7 or more actual councils, in one election
But hey, maybe he just got "lucky" again. After all we know he is lazy and a USELESS CHANCER
God help us if Farage ever gets “quite useful” at politics. He’ll probably win the US presidency and become supreme galactic warlord
A stupider, uglier and less funny Beppe Grillo. Who has sunk into political irrelevance, after topping the polls a few years ago.
Remind me of the year Beppe Grillo successfully built a eurosceptic party which forced an Italian referendum and then won Italexit, as Italy quit the EU
Given that (on the BBC's latest figures) both the Tories and Labour have lost about 70% net of the seats they were defending, it's rather remarkable that the net changes in councillors for Ref+Con and Lab+LD+Grn are just +4% and -2% respectively.
And in fact now they are both +2%. I find that amazing.
(1) The challenge the Conservatives face was well described on the last thread: how do they simultaneously appeal to those they have lost to Reform, and those they have lost to the Liberal Democrats.
It is clear that they have to tack right: but if they do that, how do they even begin to differentiate themselves from Reform, especially as all Reform needs to do is to attack them for their previous period in government?
(2) The fragmentation of voting patterns is on a scale we've never seen before. Reform is winning close to half of all councillors. But it's doing in on an National Equivalent Vote share that is only a few point more than the LibDems managed in 2009.
We see this is the Mayoral elections: winning parties are coming in with sub 30% numbers. We could see MPs - multiple MPs - elected with less than a quarter of the vote in 2029.
Reform are a political Black Hole. A Nigel-sized singularity which is now sucking everything else towards it.
Whilst there is a major challenge for the Tories as described, the gravitational challenge for Labour is just as existential.
What is at the heart of the Black Hole? The need to significantly reform the UK from top to bottom. Labour and the Tories can't tack their way around the edges of the event horizon - they'll get torn apart. Their only solution is to become a bigger black hole.
How do you defeat populism? By fixing the problems that drive populism. In this country that means fixing public services, making work pay, putting the pride back into our communities. You can't do that by cutting WFA or scrapping HS2 or performative tossery about penises.
The biggest reasons people have for voting Reform are "another party needs a go" and "their policies on immigration". What do you suggest mainstream parties should do about immigration?
Tackle the problems blamed on immigration. Note where people are complaining. It isn't where jobs are plentiful and services are good. Immigrants are the problem because schools are poor and the NHS is sinking and there aren't any jobs and the council is broke and crime is high and and and
Go after these problems. With crime under control you can't blame immigrants. With NHS experiences transformed you can't blame migrants. With jobs paying the bills and easier to get you can't blame migrants.
But you can't do any of this because low wage migrants don't generate enough economic activity to pay for it. Our taxes are already too high because every immigrant lowers our GDP per capita and we allowed 2m to come to the country with basically zero restrictions on incomes and dependents. Immigration is a huge net drag on our GDP per capita and it doesn't generate enough tax income for the government to cover the welfare requirements they and their dependents bring with them.
Deportation of low wage migrants, illegals and hitting the pause button on asylum is the answer.
Clearly a good night for Reform and Bad night for the Conservatives, but on a low turn out an in a relatively no impact election 4 years away from a General Election, Farage has clearly moved from being a strong communicator ( I personally dislike him) to create a larger national organisation with some credible figures ( Andrea Jenkyn's for one ) How Reform perform under greater scrutiny build a team instead of being a one man show I am not convinced. But certainly a good night for them and the loss of Councillors by the Conservatives and Labour will make rebuilding harder for both parties.
This also gives Reform a councillor base and an activist base for the next election as well as exactly,where to target.
It truly is a seismic revolution.
I don't buy it.
Some of the ones I have seen are quite Trumpish, with endless loops of tapes of conspiracy theories in their heads. Much of the stuff they rant about has been debunked or does not exist.
We will see if they can run anything, or achieve anything, first.
The slogan around here has been MAGA - Make Ashfield Great Again. That hints at one problem - they have their heads in an imagined past.
Is any PB still gonna trot out their "Farage is a useless chancer" bollocks?
I hope not, after this. It would be embarrassing, to put it lightly
Farage wouldn't be the first "useless chancer" to become PM, if indeed he makes it that far.
Do you still believe he is a "uselss chancer"?
In a way, I really hope you do, and that you explain your workings here. It will add to the gaiety of the nation
He’s had a huge impact on the UK and I get people like him. But I think personally he’s a cancer on the UK .
Which is fine and understandable
The people I’m mocking are the PBers who continually insist Farage is useless at politics, “he never won a seat in the commons” - oops - “he just got lucky”, he was “nothing to do with brexit winning”
Being a useless chancer isn’t incompatible with persuasively selling a lot of folk some snake oil. Indeed there’s a considerable overlap in the skills required.
Is any PB still gonna trot out their "Farage is a useless chancer" bollocks?
I hope not, after this. It would be embarrassing, to put it lightly
Farage wouldn't be the first "useless chancer" to become PM, if indeed he makes it that far.
Do you still believe he is a "uselss chancer"?
In a way, I really hope you do, and that you explain your workings here. It will add to the gaiety of the nation
He’s had a huge impact on the UK and I get people like him. But I think personally he’s a cancer on the UK .
Which is fine and understandable
The people I’m mocking are the PBers who continually insist Farage is useless at politics, “he never won a seat in the commons” - oops - “he just got lucky”, he was “nothing to do with brexit winning”
Being a useless chancer isn’t incompatible with persuasively selling a lot of folk some snake oil. Indeed there’s a considerable overlap in the skills required.
Saying such things is just fucking stupid at this point - but then, it is you talking
Farage is a politician. In what possible universe - outside of your miniature brain - is he “useless” at politics given the course of British history this last decade? He’s started or harnessed TWO parties and used both to change the course of our politics very dramatically. Yours is a laughable perspective. Childishly dim
You are making the HY mistake of seeing politics as about elections and not about governing and achieving something for your town or county or country. Perhaps it's not surprising that you fail to see the bigger picture; whether Reform will achieve anything worthwhile remains to be seen.
God help us if Farage ever gets “quite useful” at politics. He’ll probably win the US presidency and become supreme galactic warlord
A stupider, uglier and less funny Beppe Grillo. Who has sunk into political irrelevance, after topping the polls a few years ago.
Remind me of the year Beppe Grillo successfully built a eurosceptic party which forced an Italian referendum and then won Italexit, as Italy quit the EU
Did Beppe Grillo do that? No, he did not
Next
He did build a eurosceptic party, and also won a referendum in 2016 which forced the resignation of the Italian prime minister. Thanks for reminding me of some more similarities. Uncanny!
Clearly a good night for Reform and Bad night for the Conservatives, but on a low turn out an in a relatively no impact election 4 years away from a General Election, Farage has clearly moved from being a strong communicator ( I personally dislike him) to create a larger national organisation with some credible figures ( Andrea Jenkyn's for one ) How Reform perform under greater scrutiny build a team instead of being a one man show I am not convinced. But certainly a good night for them and the loss of Councillors by the Conservatives and Labour will make rebuilding harder for both parties.
Agree. Would be interested to see what the turnout has been. Not to say that it diminishes Reform's achievement but no one writes in to the restaurant to say they had a fine dinner thank you and everything was okay. So if you are upset you will likely have voted.
What are people upset about? Yes infrastructure, yes services, yes the NHS, but yes also immigration.
I have always said that the UK likes immigration because it has consistently voted parties into power that have increased immigration (despite promises to the contrary - did Lab even promise anything on this?). But perhaps, while one swallow does not a summer make, this is people voting with their feet about it.
Because Reform is only and ever about immigration.
It is indeed a stunning performance by Reform UK. The LibDems were unlucky to miss out on control of 2 councils by tiny margins (Devon, Gloucestershire), but can be very happy overall.
The "big two" are flattered in the mayoral results. Holds for Labour in three close mayoral contests makes up for a big drop in councillor numbers. The Tories gaining the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough mayor gives them something to celebrate amid the devastation, although their gain is more to do with switching to FPTP!
God help us if Farage ever gets “quite useful” at politics. He’ll probably win the US presidency and become supreme galactic warlord
A stupider, uglier and less funny Beppe Grillo. Who has sunk into political irrelevance, after topping the polls a few years ago.
Remind me of the year Beppe Grillo successfully built a eurosceptic party which forced an Italian referendum and then won Italexit, as Italy quit the EU
Did Beppe Grillo do that? No, he did not
Next
Farage is a rogue. Sometimes rogues win. This time he won. Doesn´t mean he´s not a rogue though does it?
I mean, we know you are only masquerading as a political commentator, but why not just have a scintilla of proportion before your fleshlight driven frenzies over Farage winning a minor by election and the least important round of local elections puts you back in hospital.
Are politicians overestimating how much international opprobrium we would endure if we got serious on the boats - e.g by partial withdrawal from treaties etc.?
However ill-conceived Rwanda may have been, one notable aspect was how little international criticism there was.
More Johnson's legacy imo. Or perhaps we say both since one begat the other.
Cameron, his initial mistake begat Johnson
Yes but it can all get rather "kneebone's connected to the ... thighbone".
I mean, how far back do we go? Blair chickening out of the Euro because he was scared of Brown?
Seeing as it is happening across the western world it probably isn't down to any of them but a mix of demographics, globalisation and social media, in that order. More fun to blame an individual politico but doesn't stand up to reality.
Derbyshire Durham Kent Lancashire Lincolnshire Nottinghamshire Staffordshire
Reform largest party - Able to form a working majority if they can persuade the Tories to join them.
Leicestershire Warwickshire Worcestershire
Tory largest party - Able to form a working majority if they can persuade Reform to join them.
Northumberland
Lib Dem largest party - Able to form a working majority if they can persuade the Greens to join them.
Devon Gloucestershire
I expect Cambridgeshire to go Lib Dem overall majority. The others I don't really know yet. Some are VERY late in starting counting.
Cambs would be done were it not for the peculiar slowness of the city. With Labour having such a bad night, surely the LibDems will regain enough of wards they’ve held in the past there, to capture the whole county.
I dunno, I think it has a fair chance to stay no overall control. The LDs need another five seats for a majority out of the total 12 city seats. They won three in 2021, with the rest Labour, and presumably will retain those three. Maybe they can take another two, but maybe not.
Five seats in the city ought to be achievable with Labour flat on its back. I'm not familiar with the latest boundaries but the city centre normally delivers three, the posh suburbs to the south one or two, plus one from Chesterton makes five
LDs just lost Newnham to the Greens, so that's one extra they need now... But they have taken Market off Labour.
Is any PB still gonna trot out their "Farage is a useless chancer" bollocks?
I hope not, after this. It would be embarrassing, to put it lightly
Farage wouldn't be the first "useless chancer" to become PM, if indeed he makes it that far.
Do you still believe he is a "uselss chancer"?
In a way, I really hope you do, and that you explain your workings here. It will add to the gaiety of the nation
He’s had a huge impact on the UK and I get people like him. But I think personally he’s a cancer on the UK .
Which is fine and understandable
The people I’m mocking are the PBers who continually insist Farage is useless at politics, “he never won a seat in the commons” - oops - “he just got lucky”, he was “nothing to do with brexit winning”
Being a useless chancer isn’t incompatible with persuasively selling a lot of folk some snake oil. Indeed there’s a considerable overlap in the skills required.
Is any PB still gonna trot out their "Farage is a useless chancer" bollocks?
I hope not, after this. It would be embarrassing, to put it lightly
Farage wouldn't be the first "useless chancer" to become PM, if indeed he makes it that far.
Do you still believe he is a "uselss chancer"?
In a way, I really hope you do, and that you explain your workings here. It will add to the gaiety of the nation
He’s had a huge impact on the UK and I get people like him. But I think personally he’s a cancer on the UK .
Which is fine and understandable
The people I’m mocking are the PBers who continually insist Farage is useless at politics, “he never won a seat in the commons” - oops - “he just got lucky”, he was “nothing to do with brexit winning”
Being a useless chancer isn’t incompatible with persuasively selling a lot of folk some snake oil. Indeed there’s a considerable overlap in the skills required.
Saying such things is just fucking stupid at this point - but then, it is you talking
Farage is a politician. In what possible universe - outside of your miniature brain - is he “useless” at politics given the course of British history this last decade? He’s started or harnessed TWO parties and used both to change the course of our politics very dramatically. Yours is a laughable perspective. Childishly dim
You are making the HY mistake of seeing politics as about elections and not about governing and achieving something for your town or county or country. Perhaps it's not surprising that you fail to see the bigger picture; whether Reform will achieve anything worthwhile remains to be seen.
Politics is about BOTH - winning and governing - and much else
To achieve anything you have to WIN. Farage has now shown he is consistently the biggest, boldest winner in UK politics, since Blair, and in some ways even more impressive than Blair, as he's done it as an outsider
As for achievements beyond winning, he got the UK to exit the EU, something that many regarded as entirely unthinable. But he did it. Of course, you despise the Brexit vote, but tht's because you're a Remainer. Farage is a Leaver: Farage bent British history to his desired end, Brexit, making him more significant than Blair, as well
Now Farage might have a chance at an even bigger prize, governing the UK as PM. I've no true dea how he will do, and nor do you, but the evidence of his organisational skill and cunning suggests a high degree of intelligence. And the ability to think strategically. He might be good at governing AS WELL
Basically he is very good at politics, and denying it is now futile and mortifying
Is any PB still gonna trot out their "Farage is a useless chancer" bollocks?
I hope not, after this. It would be embarrassing, to put it lightly
Farage wouldn't be the first "useless chancer" to become PM, if indeed he makes it that far.
Do you still believe he is a "uselss chancer"?
In a way, I really hope you do, and that you explain your workings here. It will add to the gaiety of the nation
He’s had a huge impact on the UK and I get people like him. But I think personally he’s a cancer on the UK .
Which is fine and understandable
The people I’m mocking are the PBers who continually insist Farage is useless at politics, “he never won a seat in the commons” - oops - “he just got lucky”, he was “nothing to do with brexit winning”
Being a useless chancer isn’t incompatible with persuasively selling a lot of folk some snake oil. Indeed there’s a considerable overlap in the skills required.
Is any PB still gonna trot out their "Farage is a useless chancer" bollocks?
I hope not, after this. It would be embarrassing, to put it lightly
Farage wouldn't be the first "useless chancer" to become PM, if indeed he makes it that far.
Do you still believe he is a "uselss chancer"?
In a way, I really hope you do, and that you explain your workings here. It will add to the gaiety of the nation
He’s had a huge impact on the UK and I get people like him. But I think personally he’s a cancer on the UK .
Which is fine and understandable
The people I’m mocking are the PBers who continually insist Farage is useless at politics, “he never won a seat in the commons” - oops - “he just got lucky”, he was “nothing to do with brexit winning”
Being a useless chancer isn’t incompatible with persuasively selling a lot of folk some snake oil. Indeed there’s a considerable overlap in the skills required.
Saying such things is just fucking stupid at this point - but then, it is you talking
Farage is a politician. In what possible universe - outside of your miniature brain - is he “useless” at politics given the course of British history this last decade? He’s started or harnessed TWO parties and used both to change the course of our politics very dramatically. Yours is a laughable perspective. Childishly dim
You are making the HY mistake of seeing politics as about elections and not about governing and achieving something for your town or county or country. Perhaps it's not surprising that you fail to see the bigger picture; whether Reform will achieve anything worthwhile remains to be seen.
Politics is about BOTH, and much else
To achieve anything you have to WIN. Farage has now shown he is consistently the biggest, boldest winner in UK politics, since Blair, and in some ways even more impressive than Blair, as he's done it as an outsider
As for achievements beyond winning, he got the UK to exit the EU, something that many regarded as entirely unthinable. But he did it. Of course, you despise the Brexit vote, but that's cause you lost and Farage won: Farage bent British history to his desired end, making him more signficant than Blair, as well
Now Farage might have a chance at at en even bigger prize, governing the UK as PM. I've no itrue dea how he will do, and nor do you, but the evidence of his organisational skill and cunning suggests a high degree of intelligence. And the ability to think strategically. He might be good at governing AS WELL
Basically he is very good at politics, and denying it is now futile and mortifying
So you think he may surprise on the upside? Getting a weird sense of deja vu here.....
BBC projected national share just released by Prof John Curtice
RefUK 30% Lab 20% LD 17% Con 15% Grn 11%
That'd be terminal for the Tories. Would almost certainly end up in fourth place in seats, potentially fifth including the SNP depending how the pendulum swings up there.
Given that (on the BBC's latest figures) both the Tories and Labour have lost about 70% net of the seats they were defending, it's rather remarkable that the net changes in councillors for Ref+Con and Lab+LD+Grn are just +4% and -2% respectively.
And in fact now they are both +2%. I find that amazing.
So if I have that right we need -4% of the ~1200 results declared so far to balance it out. That is, around 48 Councillors.
In the bits of Notts I have been tracking Ashfield Indies are down by 9, and Broxtowe Indies (2 groups) are down by 8, and other Indies are down by 3.
That's nearly half the balance item just from Notts.
Now Farage might have a chance at an even bigger prize, governing the UK as PM. I've no true dea how he will do, and nor do you, but the evidence of his organisational skill and cunning suggests a high degree of intelligence. And the ability to think strategically. He might be good at governing AS WELL
Trump won the Presidency and his brains are visibly leaking out of his ears
It's complicated, but if I had to identify one single thing behind the Reform surge it would be asylum seekers in hotels. There's enough outrage about this to add quite a few percent to the Reform vote everywhere as, rightly or wrongly (probably the latter), people think they could solve it.
This ties in with the boats. Now, this election notwithstanding, where I think those who don't like foreigners are making their position known, the UK has consistently shown that it is happy to have immigrants, and plenty of them. What they don't like is being out of control, or freeloaders.
The boats represent a tangible example of the government not being able to control its own borders, and hence why successive governments are so keen to stop them, despite the tiny numbers arriving in this way.
Likewise, "asylum hotels" are seen as freeloading and jumping the queue. And every freeborn Englishman detests queue jumpers.
The people in hotels would love to have jobs. That’s what they’re hoping for, to get asylum and to be allowed to get a job. The rules don’t let them have jobs. The system forces them not to do anything and the Tories then produced these very long proceeding times.
Sure. Not the point. People (UK people) see them as freeloading and getting room service of coffee and pain au chocolat plus a spa treatment at the taxpayers' expense.
And people who we don't want in the country in the first place. I think Labour needs to seriously consider closing the UK to new asylum applications and temporarily pause our members of whatever treaties is required to achieve this. If we're to avoid a Reform majority in 2029 we need a period of 4 years with no new asylum seekers and to deport all of the ones we do have as well as revoking visas for the low wage legal migrants and "students" that overstay and work illegally.
They really, really need to get tough or watch as more and more people turn to Farage and we sleepwalk into a reform majority.
Why didn't the Tories do this?
Because they're embarrassed by being right wing. They can't go to the cool parties or lecture people at Davos on being on the right side of history.
(1) The challenge the Conservatives face was well described on the last thread: how do they simultaneously appeal to those they have lost to Reform, and those they have lost to the Liberal Democrats.
It is clear that they have to tack right: but if they do that, how do they even begin to differentiate themselves from Reform, especially as all Reform needs to do is to attack them for their previous period in government?
(2) The fragmentation of voting patterns is on a scale we've never seen before. Reform is winning close to half of all councillors. But it's doing in on an National Equivalent Vote share that is only a few point more than the LibDems managed in 2009.
We see this is the Mayoral elections: winning parties are coming in with sub 30% numbers. We could see MPs - multiple MPs - elected with less than a quarter of the vote in 2029.
Reform are a political Black Hole. A Nigel-sized singularity which is now sucking everything else towards it.
Whilst there is a major challenge for the Tories as described, the gravitational challenge for Labour is just as existential.
What is at the heart of the Black Hole? The need to significantly reform the UK from top to bottom. Labour and the Tories can't tack their way around the edges of the event horizon - they'll get torn apart. Their only solution is to become a bigger black hole.
How do you defeat populism? By fixing the problems that drive populism. In this country that means fixing public services, making work pay, putting the pride back into our communities. You can't do that by cutting WFA or scrapping HS2 or performative tossery about penises.
The biggest reasons people have for voting Reform are "another party needs a go" and "their policies on immigration". What do you suggest mainstream parties should do about immigration?
Tackle the problems blamed on immigration. Note where people are complaining. It isn't where jobs are plentiful and services are good. Immigrants are the problem because schools are poor and the NHS is sinking and there aren't any jobs and the council is broke and crime is high and and and
Go after these problems. With crime under control you can't blame immigrants. With NHS experiences transformed you can't blame migrants. With jobs paying the bills and easier to get you can't blame migrants.
But you can't do any of this because low wage migrants don't generate enough economic activity to pay for it. Our taxes are already too high because every immigrant lowers our GDP per capita and we allowed 2m to come to the country with basically zero restrictions on incomes and dependents. Immigration is a huge net drag on our GDP per capita and it doesn't generate enough tax income for the government to cover the welfare requirements they and their dependents bring with them.
Deportation of low wage migrants, illegals and hitting the pause button on asylum is the answer.
OK, lets play the scenario. Farage has won the election and your final sentence is now policy.
How?
To deport people you have to do multiple things. Declare the "low wage migrants" who are working legally to now be illegal Identify the people who are illegal Arrest, detain and process them through the courts Deport them to a country willing to receive them
I'm not questioning the merits of the policy, just looking at the details as to how it could be enacted. None of the things on the list are quick, and many of them involve the things people don't want such as detaining them in accommodation.
Clearly a good night for Reform and Bad night for the Conservatives, but on a low turn out an in a relatively no impact election 4 years away from a General Election, Farage has clearly moved from being a strong communicator ( I personally dislike him) to create a larger national organisation with some credible figures ( Andrea Jenkyn's for one ) How Reform perform under greater scrutiny build a team instead of being a one man show I am not convinced. But certainly a good night for them and the loss of Councillors by the Conservatives and Labour will make rebuilding harder for both parties.
Do we know what the turnout was? Because in Runcorn it was quite respectable. Also looking forward to seeing the projected national share from John Curtice.
(1) The challenge the Conservatives face was well described on the last thread: how do they simultaneously appeal to those they have lost to Reform, and those they have lost to the Liberal Democrats.
It is clear that they have to tack right: but if they do that, how do they even begin to differentiate themselves from Reform, especially as all Reform needs to do is to attack them for their previous period in government?
(2) The fragmentation of voting patterns is on a scale we've never seen before. Reform is winning close to half of all councillors. But it's doing in on an National Equivalent Vote share that is only a few point more than the LibDems managed in 2009.
We see this is the Mayoral elections: winning parties are coming in with sub 30% numbers. We could see MPs - multiple MPs - elected with less than a quarter of the vote in 2029.
Reform are a political Black Hole. A Nigel-sized singularity which is now sucking everything else towards it.
Whilst there is a major challenge for the Tories as described, the gravitational challenge for Labour is just as existential.
What is at the heart of the Black Hole? The need to significantly reform the UK from top to bottom. Labour and the Tories can't tack their way around the edges of the event horizon - they'll get torn apart. Their only solution is to become a bigger black hole.
How do you defeat populism? By fixing the problems that drive populism. In this country that means fixing public services, making work pay, putting the pride back into our communities. You can't do that by cutting WFA or scrapping HS2 or performative tossery about penises.
The biggest reasons people have for voting Reform are "another party needs a go" and "their policies on immigration". What do you suggest mainstream parties should do about immigration?
Tackle the problems blamed on immigration. Note where people are complaining. It isn't where jobs are plentiful and services are good. Immigrants are the problem because schools are poor and the NHS is sinking and there aren't any jobs and the council is broke and crime is high and and and
Go after these problems. With crime under control you can't blame immigrants. With NHS experiences transformed you can't blame migrants. With jobs paying the bills and easier to get you can't blame migrants.
But you can't do any of this because low wage migrants don't generate enough economic activity to pay for it. Our taxes are already too high because every immigrant lowers our GDP per capita and we allowed 2m to come to the country with basically zero restrictions on incomes and dependents. Immigration is a huge net drag on our GDP per capita and it doesn't generate enough tax income for the government to cover the welfare requirements they and their dependents bring with them.
Deportation of low wage migrants, illegals and hitting the pause button on asylum is the answer.
OK, lets play the scenario. Farage has won the election and your final sentence is now policy.
How?
To deport people you have to do multiple things. Declare the "low wage migrants" who are working legally to now be illegal Identify the people who are illegal Arrest, detain and process them through the courts Deport them to a country willing to receive them
I'm not questioning the merits of the policy, just looking at the details as to how it could be enacted. None of the things on the list are quick, and many of them involve the things people don't want such as detaining them in accommodation.
I expect he wants to follow the Mad King
Hire some blackshirts to round up undesirables and put them on planes to El Salvador
Starmer is PM with a huge majority no matter how shaky his locals base is. Badenoch has lost 456 out of 645 councillors declared so far. In opposition !
Disaster doesn't begin to cover it.
Oh, landslide is much too mild a word; this is like an asteroid coming down and wiping out all life on earth!
"Temu to stop selling goods from China directly to US customers"
Will import in bulk instead, the de minimus route being closed.
That's more Trump chaos for US consumers, and a loss of flexibility.
No, this is actually the one good thing Trump has done (albeit in usual chaotic Trump fashion). I know a number of US based e-commerce business people and they are sick of how this rule is exploited by the likes of Temu. They can sell all sorts of shit without having to stick to any rules and if the product turns out to be dodgy the sellers on there just disappear and come back again as a different company. If the US company did it they would be liable for all sorts of fines. It is not a level playing field for companies based outside of China.
Carney confirms he made a request to King Charles for the “honour” to open the Canadian Parliament to give the speech from the throne “clearly underscores sovereignty” of Canada with our “Head of State”
- some clear side eye to the White House that he will not get that role…
Carney being pressed on whether Trump has dropped the 51st state rhetoric, and he did not raise it in the phone conversation with Carney on Tuesday…
God help us if Farage ever gets “quite useful” at politics. He’ll probably win the US presidency and become supreme galactic warlord
A stupider, uglier and less funny Beppe Grillo. Who has sunk into political irrelevance, after topping the polls a few years ago.
Remind me of the year Beppe Grillo successfully built a eurosceptic party which forced an Italian referendum and then won Italexit, as Italy quit the EU
Did Beppe Grillo do that? No, he did not
Next
There’s a great deal of sour grapes. Farage is the most consequential British politician of the past thirty years.
(1) The challenge the Conservatives face was well described on the last thread: how do they simultaneously appeal to those they have lost to Reform, and those they have lost to the Liberal Democrats.
It is clear that they have to tack right: but if they do that, how do they even begin to differentiate themselves from Reform, especially as all Reform needs to do is to attack them for their previous period in government?
(2) The fragmentation of voting patterns is on a scale we've never seen before. Reform is winning close to half of all councillors. But it's doing in on an National Equivalent Vote share that is only a few point more than the LibDems managed in 2009.
We see this is the Mayoral elections: winning parties are coming in with sub 30% numbers. We could see MPs - multiple MPs - elected with less than a quarter of the vote in 2029.
Reform are a political Black Hole. A Nigel-sized singularity which is now sucking everything else towards it.
Whilst there is a major challenge for the Tories as described, the gravitational challenge for Labour is just as existential.
What is at the heart of the Black Hole? The need to significantly reform the UK from top to bottom. Labour and the Tories can't tack their way around the edges of the event horizon - they'll get torn apart. Their only solution is to become a bigger black hole.
How do you defeat populism? By fixing the problems that drive populism. In this country that means fixing public services, making work pay, putting the pride back into our communities. You can't do that by cutting WFA or scrapping HS2 or performative tossery about penises.
The biggest reasons people have for voting Reform are "another party needs a go" and "their policies on immigration". What do you suggest mainstream parties should do about immigration?
Tackle the problems blamed on immigration. Note where people are complaining. It isn't where jobs are plentiful and services are good. Immigrants are the problem because schools are poor and the NHS is sinking and there aren't any jobs and the council is broke and crime is high and and and
Go after these problems. With crime under control you can't blame immigrants. With NHS experiences transformed you can't blame migrants. With jobs paying the bills and easier to get you can't blame migrants.
But you can't do any of this because low wage migrants don't generate enough economic activity to pay for it. Our taxes are already too high because every immigrant lowers our GDP per capita and we allowed 2m to come to the country with basically zero restrictions on incomes and dependents. Immigration is a huge net drag on our GDP per capita and it doesn't generate enough tax income for the government to cover the welfare requirements they and their dependents bring with them.
Deportation of low wage migrants, illegals and hitting the pause button on asylum is the answer.
Not giving people here on 5 year care home Visas ILR with the access to everything that comes with it for starters. Especially as many have brought over economically inactive dependents.
They will never be a net contributor.
It won’t happen. All the main parties are ideologically in favour of it.
More Johnson's legacy imo. Or perhaps we say both since one begat the other.
Cameron, his initial mistake begat Johnson
Yes but it can all get rather "kneebone's connected to the ... thighbone".
I mean, how far back do we go? Blair chickening out of the Euro because he was scared of Brown?
Seeing as it is happening across the western world it probably isn't down to any of them but a mix of demographics, globalisation and social media, in that order. More fun to blame an individual politico but doesn't stand up to reality.
That's true. But I do think it's fair to say the Con meltdown is largely self-inflicted with their choice of Boris Johnson despite knowing he was unfit to be PM.
Starmer is PM with a huge majority no matter how shaky his locals base is. Badenoch has lost 456 out of 645 councillors declared so far. In opposition !
Disaster doesn't begin to cover it.
Oh, landslide is much too mild a word; this is like an asteroid coming down and wiping out all life on earth!
It’s like 1924 for the Liberals, from the Conservatives POV.
Comments
So we need an absolute reset from top to bottom. A peaceful revolution and a total rethink
The only party offering that, by definition, must be a new outsider party. They may well fail - who knows, it doesn’t look good - but the voters are now desperate
Reform are the right party at the right time
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/51474-what-is-attracting-24-of-britons-to-reform-uk
- Reform UK: 520 councillors, 520 councillors gained
- Liberal Democrat: 268 councillors, 110 councillors gained
- Conservative: 214 councillors, 510 councillors lost
- Independent: 68 councillors, 19 councillors lost
- Labour: 59 councillors, 132 councillors lost
- Green: 59 councillors, 32 councillors gained
Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/newsBoZo won lots of votes. He was fucking useless.
Trump won lots of votes. He's senile (and a bit mad)
Nigel Fucking Farage wins votes and then delivers fuck all
You are welcome to him
522
522
(Reform UK: 522 councillors, 522 councillors gained)
LD
271
110
(Liberal Democrat: 271 councillors, 110 councillors gained)
CON
214
512
(Conservative: 214 councillors, 512 councillors lost)
IND
68
19
(Independent: 68 councillors, 19 councillors lost)
LAB
59
132
(Labour: 59 councillors, 132 councillors lost)
GRN
59
32
(Green: 59 councillors, 32 councillors gained)
💥
PM Carney reveals that King Charles will give the equivalent of the King’s Speech at the end of this month at the reopening of Canada’s Parliament… monarchists in Canada have called this “a great show of sovereignty” for Canada…
This has not occurred since 1977.
https://x.com/faisalislam/status/1918322248324206968
Some-one who was "good at politics" but didn't get many votes.
But now we’ve seen REFUK:
- the largest party on Worcestershire CC;
- the largest party on Warwickshire CC;
- 11 seats in Gloucestershire;
- second largest party (18 seats) in Devon;
Admittedly there are places like Oxfordshire where they’re still struggling, and I expect they won’t do tremendous trade in Bucks (though they seem to be doing ok in Herts). But they’re clearly a more national force than we perhaps expected them to be. And that bodes badly for the Tories.
They are an actual living example of what leftwing parties MUST do, to beat the alt.right: right there, in the EU, getting it done
Yet the Left (and centre Right) is too wedded to its Woke religion - at least in the UK - so they won't
Fuck immigrants and hate the EU is the only winning policy@BethRigby
Just in from a LD source: party "increasingly confident Lib Dems will finish ahead of both the Tories and Labour at the local elections for the first time ever (in terms of councillor numbers elected)" in this round of voting
https://x.com/_tomscotson/status/1916087003495485802
Labour figures fear more Gaza independent gains at the locals on Thursday
My dispatch from Burnley, where one candidate challenging Labour wants to end “free mixing” between men and women
Go after these problems. With crime under control you can't blame immigrants. With NHS experiences transformed you can't blame migrants. With jobs paying the bills and easier to get you can't blame migrants.
It truly is a seismic revolution.
Now granted it’s just about the only thing I agree with Farage and Trump about but a country should be responsible for its screw ups and shouldn’t try to dump them on others
What did we hear then? "Oh he's so lazy, he doesn't care, he'll never go to Clacton, it's his last hurrah and he'll spend more time in Mar e Lago than the UK, he's a useless chancer, a USELESS CHANCER"
Well, now we know what Farage did after he won his seat in Clacton. He quietly built a local political base capable of winning many hundreds of council seats, and installing 600 councillors from scratch, and taking over 7 or more actual councils, in one election
But hey, maybe he just got "lucky" again. After all we know he is lazy and a USELESS CHANCER
RefUK 30%
Lab 20%
LD 17%
Con 15%
Grn 11%
Lab 20%
LD 17%
Con 15%
Green 11%
Did Beppe Grillo do that? No, he did not
Next
That would make Farage PM with a Reform majority of 102
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=N&CON=15&LAB=20&LIB=17&Reform=30&Green=11&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTReform=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2024base
I mean, how far back do we go? Blair chickening out of the Euro because he was scared of Brown?
Deportation of low wage migrants, illegals and hitting the pause button on asylum is the answer.
Some of the ones I have seen are quite Trumpish, with endless loops of tapes of conspiracy theories in their heads. Much of the stuff they rant about has been debunked or does not exist.
We will see if they can run anything, or achieve anything, first.
The slogan around here has been MAGA - Make Ashfield Great Again. That hints at one problem - they have their heads in an imagined past.
Thats why the country is in the shit.
What are people upset about? Yes infrastructure, yes services, yes the NHS, but yes also immigration.
I have always said that the UK likes immigration because it has consistently voted parties into power that have increased immigration (despite promises to the contrary - did Lab even promise anything on this?). But perhaps, while one swallow does not a summer make, this is people voting with their feet about it.
Because Reform is only and ever about immigration.
The "big two" are flattered in the mayoral results. Holds for Labour in three close mayoral contests makes up for a big drop in councillor numbers. The Tories gaining the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough mayor gives them something to celebrate amid the devastation, although their gain is more to do with switching to FPTP!
I mean, we know you are only masquerading as a political commentator, but why not just have a scintilla of proportion before your fleshlight driven frenzies over Farage winning a minor by election and the least important round of local elections puts you back in hospital.
However ill-conceived Rwanda may have been, one notable aspect was how little international criticism there was.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwy79j2n7d4o
"Temu to stop selling goods from China directly to US customers"
Will import in bulk instead, the de minimus route being closed.
To achieve anything you have to WIN. Farage has now shown he is consistently the biggest, boldest winner in UK politics, since Blair, and in some ways even more impressive than Blair, as he's done it as an outsider
As for achievements beyond winning, he got the UK to exit the EU, something that many regarded as entirely unthinable. But he did it. Of course, you despise the Brexit vote, but tht's because you're a Remainer. Farage is a Leaver: Farage bent British history to his desired end, Brexit, making him more significant than Blair, as well
Now Farage might have a chance at an even bigger prize, governing the UK as PM. I've no true dea how he will do, and nor do you, but the evidence of his organisational skill and cunning suggests a high degree of intelligence. And the ability to think strategically. He might be good at governing AS WELL
Basically he is very good at politics, and denying it is now futile and mortifying
That's the 'revolution' we need. No more of that born-to-rule shit.
In the bits of Notts I have been tracking Ashfield Indies are down by 9, and Broxtowe Indies (2 groups) are down by 8, and other Indies are down by 3.
That's nearly half the balance item just from Notts.
As you say - quite a change.
Lab/LD/Green 48%, Ref/Con 45%.
Left of centre wins!
Dig deep comrades
https://www.bma.org.uk/bma-media-centre/resident-doctors-in-england-announce-ballot-for-industrial-action
Your assertion is bollocks
Your fanboi crush on these twats is embarrassing
How?
To deport people you have to do multiple things.
Declare the "low wage migrants" who are working legally to now be illegal
Identify the people who are illegal
Arrest, detain and process them through the courts
Deport them to a country willing to receive them
I'm not questioning the merits of the policy, just looking at the details as to how it could be enacted. None of the things on the list are quick, and many of them involve the things people don't want such as detaining them in accommodation.
Reform 30%
Lab 20%
Lib Dem 17%
Con 15%
Green 11%
Find Out Now turns out to be quite accurate.
Hire some blackshirts to round up undesirables and put them on planes to El Salvador
Job done
It was much mocked, on here
Carney confirms he made a request to King Charles for the “honour” to open the Canadian Parliament to give the speech from the throne “clearly underscores sovereignty” of Canada with our “Head of State”
- some clear side eye to the White House that he will not get that role…
Carney being pressed on whether Trump has dropped the 51st state rhetoric, and he did not raise it in the phone conversation with Carney on Tuesday…
They will never be a net contributor.
It won’t happen. All the main parties are ideologically in favour of it.
Reform are still the only party to win a council outright
Seems find out now were near the public mood
Exclusive from
@DavidPBMaddox
: Tory plotting to replace Badenoch under way after local election disaster
https://x.com/JohnRentoul/status/1918331622543266143