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A reminder that getting out the vote is crucial – politicalbetting.com

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  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,910
    carnforth said:

    Cookie said:

    .

    TOPPING said:

    It's complicated, but if I had to identify one single thing behind the Reform surge it would be asylum seekers in hotels. There's enough outrage about this to add quite a few percent to the Reform vote everywhere as, rightly or wrongly (probably the latter), people think they could solve it.

    This ties in with the boats. Now, this election notwithstanding, where I think those who don't like foreigners are making their position known, the UK has consistently shown that it is happy to have immigrants, and plenty of them. What they don't like is being out of control, or freeloaders.

    The boats represent a tangible example of the government not being able to control its own borders, and hence why successive governments are so keen to stop them, despite the tiny numbers arriving in this way.

    Likewise, "asylum hotels" are seen as freeloading and jumping the queue. And every freeborn Englishman detests queue jumpers.
    The people in hotels would love to have jobs. That’s what they’re hoping for, to get asylum and to be allowed to get a job. The rules don’t let them have jobs. The system forces them not to do anything and the Tories then produced these very long proceeding times.
    Do you not see how allowing asylum seekers to work would be abused? It would also undermine the visa system and is against the interests of local workers.
    I'm not saying it's a good idea to allow asylum seekers to work. I'm saying that calling them freeloaders is inaccurate. What would be good is to process applications as quickly as possible, to deport those we should deport quickly and to admit those we want to admit quickly so they can stop freeloading and start contributing.
    Contributing to holding down wages and competing for housing... Giving Deliveroo an even more plentiful supply of migrant workers might be in their interests but it's not in the national interest.
    On a related note, I've just come back from Sale town centre to find a small tent encampment has been set up by MEANA men who are apparently asylum seekers who have been granted leave to remain. I don't know whether the same things are features of other small provincial towns and suburbs, but I'd suggest it hasn't done Reform's chances any harm.
    If they have been granted leave to remain, they are not asylum seekers. They have been given asylum. They are asylum gainers.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/granting-discretionary-leave/discretionary-leave-accessible
    Cookie didn't say they had been granted Discretionary Leave. There are various different "leave to remain" categories. If that is what he meant, my apologies, I misunderstood. The numbers on Discretionary Leave are meant to be very low. They are an odd category. If I have this right, they cannot usually apply for any benefits, but they can work? This seems counterproductive and will lead to things like small tent encampments.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,811
    edited May 2
    Anyway, remember when I said I can't believe that Reform will get that many votes. Well...

    Yours
    TOPPING - your commentator with razor sharp political antennae
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,642

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    .

    TOPPING said:

    It's complicated, but if I had to identify one single thing behind the Reform surge it would be asylum seekers in hotels. There's enough outrage about this to add quite a few percent to the Reform vote everywhere as, rightly or wrongly (probably the latter), people think they could solve it.

    This ties in with the boats. Now, this election notwithstanding, where I think those who don't like foreigners are making their position known, the UK has consistently shown that it is happy to have immigrants, and plenty of them. What they don't like is being out of control, or freeloaders.

    The boats represent a tangible example of the government not being able to control its own borders, and hence why successive governments are so keen to stop them, despite the tiny numbers arriving in this way.

    Likewise, "asylum hotels" are seen as freeloading and jumping the queue. And every freeborn Englishman detests queue jumpers.
    The people in hotels would love to have jobs. That’s what they’re hoping for, to get asylum and to be allowed to get a job. The rules don’t let them have jobs. The system forces them not to do anything and the Tories then produced these very long proceeding times.
    Do you not see how allowing asylum seekers to work would be abused? It would also undermine the visa system and is against the interests of local workers.
    I'm not saying it's a good idea to allow asylum seekers to work. I'm saying that calling them freeloaders is inaccurate. What would be good is to process applications as quickly as possible, to deport those we should deport quickly and to admit those we want to admit quickly so they can stop freeloading and start contributing.
    Contributing to holding down wages and competing for housing... Giving Deliveroo an even more plentiful supply of migrant workers might be in their interests but it's not in the national interest.
    On a related note, I've just come back from Sale town centre to find a small tent encampment has been set up by MEANA men who are apparently asylum seekers who have been granted leave to remain. I don't know whether the same things are features of other small provincial towns and suburbs, but I'd suggest it hasn't done Reform's chances any harm.
    They are everywhere

    I met a friend yesterday for drinks, Tramadol and Gascake, and he told me of a recent visit to Bournemouth - a town he knows well, as he's from Dorset

    Bournemouth has always had a grungey side but he said it is now positively menacing for a mile or more, in the town centre. With asylum seekers - exactly as you describe - loitering eveywhere, apparently doing nothing

    They all have to go. Send them all home. Withdraw from the EHRC and cancel the general right to asylum, except for unique cases like Ukraine and HK. Enough

    We've got them in Camden too, but to be fair they probably make Camden Town, by the Tube, a bit nicer
    I visit Bournemouth and surrounding areas a lot. I was there last week and can tell you that the towncentre does indeed have a homeless problem, but the vast majority appear to be British.
    Bournemouth has always attracted itinerants - hippies, druggies, the sort of people who live in squats or HMOs. Not sure much has changed.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,438

    Chris said:

    Eabhal said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Which is great for Reform, but also brings with it a challenge. Running councils is a thankless job, because of the number of things you are legally required to spend money on. It's also highly likely that most of the elected representatives won't know much about how councils are run.

    Which is potentially a great position to be in for a party seeking national power to Reform the country. They will have endless examples to draw on of dysfunctional outcomes caused by statutory obligations imposed on local government.
    Those statutory obligations are little things like education, social work, bins collection and social care. Also child safeguarding - is that something Reform are going to complain about?!

    In fact, a lot of stuff that is "broken" about the UK is actually governed at the local level.
    At a guess, we're going to end up with quite a lot of town hall mini-Trumps trying to slash services so that they can cut council tax. That may be popular with ex-Tory Refukkers, but perhaps not so much with ex-Labour ones.
    Would be very difficult, Chris, without breaching statutory obligations. This is where I think we will find the Refukkers are well and truly cattle trucked.
    Like Scotland, every grievance will be treated as a reason to give Ref more seats in Westminster.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,588
    sarissa said:

    MattW said:

    KnightOut said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Most Ref voters want left-wing economic policies, of the sort Callaghan was in favour of in the late 70s.

    That's probably the dictionary definition of 'far right' these days...
    In the USA, that's some way beyond far left !
    Okay then, proper serious question. All the other G7 countries can supply us with this oh so important ”virgin steel” we can only supply ourselves by Nationalising. How do the other G7 countries manage it without nationalisation?
    UK producers face energy costs approximately 80-90% higher than Germany, the highest of these examples

    Germany* has the advantage of massive of being able to strip mine coal for power generation and steel. We don't have those resources.

    * And the US
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,093
    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Devon completes their count.

    East Devon (11/11)
    Axminister: Ind gain from Con
    Broadcylst (2): 1 Grn hold, 1 Ref gain from Con
    Exmouth (2): 1 Con hold, 1 Ref gain from Con
    Exmouth and Budleigh Salterton Coastal: LD gain from Con
    Feniton & Honiton: LD gain from Con
    Otter Valley: Ind hold
    Seaton & Colyton: LD gain from Con
    Sidmouth: LD gain from Con
    Whimple and Blackdown: LD gain from Con

    Exeter (9/9)
    Alphington & Cowick: Ref gain from Lab
    Duryard & Pennsylvania: LD gain from Con
    Exwick & St Thomas: Ref gain from Lab
    Heavitree & Whipton Barton: Grn gain from Lab
    Pinhoe & Mincinglake: Ref gain from Lab
    St Sidwells & St James: Grn gain from Lab
    St Davids & Haven Banks: Grn gain from Lab
    Wearside & Topsham: Con hold
    Wonford & St Loyes: Ref gain from Lab

    Mid Devon (6/6)
    Crediton: LD hold
    Creedy Taw & Mid Exe: LD gain from Con
    Cullompton & Bradninch: LD gain from Con
    Willand & Uffculme: LD gain from Con
    Tiverton East: Ref gain from Con
    Tiverton West: LD gain from Con

    North Devon (8/8)
    Barnstaple North: LD hold
    Barnstaple South: LD hold
    Braunton Rural: LD gain from Con
    Chulmleigh & Landkey: LD gain from Con
    Combe Martin Rural: Con hold
    Fremington Rural: LD gain from Ind
    Ilfracombe: Grn gain from Con
    South Molton: Ref gain from Con

    South Hams (7/7)
    Bickley & Wembury: Con hold
    Dartmouth & Marldon: LD gain from Con
    Ivybridge: LD gain from Con
    Kingsbridge: LD hold
    Salcombe: LD gain from Con
    South Brent & Yealmpton: LD hold
    Totnes & Dartington: Grn hold

    Teignbridge (10/10)
    Ashburton & Buckfastleigh: Con hold
    Bovey Rural: LD gain from Con
    Chudleigh & Teign Valley: LD gain from Con
    Dawlish: LD hold
    Exminster & Haldon: LD hold
    Ipplepen & The Kerswells: Ref gain from LD
    Kingsteignton & Teign Estuary: Ref gain from Con
    Newton Abbot North: Ref gain from Con
    Newton Abbot South: Ref gain from Ind
    Teignmouth: LD hold

    Torridge (5/5)
    Bideford East: Ref gain from Con
    Bideford West & Hartland: Ref gain from Con
    Holsworthy Rural: Ref gain from Con
    Northam: Con hold
    Torrington Rural: LD gain from Con

    West Devon (4/4)
    Hatherleigh & Chagford: Ref gain from Con
    Okehampton Rural: Ref gain from Con
    Tavistock: Con hold
    Yelverton Rural: Ref gain from Con

    After 60/60 seats declared
    Reform: 18 (+18) (12 gains from Con, 4 from Lab, 1 from LD, 1 from Ind)
    Liberal Democrats: 27 (+18) (18 gains from Con, 1 from Ind, 1 loss to Ref)
    Conservatives: 7 (-32) (18 losses to LD, 12 to Ref, 1 to Grn, 1 to Ind)
    Green: 6 (+4) (3 gains from Lab, 1 from Con)
    Labour: 0 (-7) (4 losses to Ref, 3 to Grn)
    Independent: 2 (-1) (1 gain from Con, 1 loss to LD, 1 loss to Ref)

    LibDem/Green administration?
    Labour: ZERO

    I know this is provincial England, but Labour are being wiped out entirely. Shows they are doing easily as bad as the Tories

    Starmer has to act. He needs to sack Reeves and Miliband, for a start. Because as things stand he is hurtling to oblivion with no plan to change course
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,693

    Striking result from Minchinghampton, south of Cheltenham:

    Minchinhampton held by Greens

    Bella Amory Conservative 444

    Adam Giles Crispin Cain Liberal Democrats 131

    David James Carter Labour 236

    John Lee Marsden Reform UK 622

    Chloe Isobel Turner Green Party 2199


    If you have ever been there you may have noted the resemblance it bears to Middle Earth.

    Mordor, Gondor, or The Shire?
    Not telling you, but you cannot buy a house there unless you have furry feet. ;)
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,944
    nico67 said:

    So Reform haven’t got a clue and have duped the gullible. Apparently they’ll start with cutting traffic calming measures so more people can end up as roadkill .

    GOOD.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,567

    Striking result from Minchinghampton, south of Cheltenham:

    Minchinhampton held by Greens

    Bella Amory Conservative 444

    Adam Giles Crispin Cain Liberal Democrats 131

    David James Carter Labour 236

    John Lee Marsden Reform UK 622

    Chloe Isobel Turner Green Party 2199


    If you have ever been there you may have noted the resemblance it bears to Middle Earth.

    Christ, look at house prices there:

    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/160214750#/?channel=RES_BUY
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,693
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Eabhal said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Which is great for Reform, but also brings with it a challenge. Running councils is a thankless job, because of the number of things you are legally required to spend money on. It's also highly likely that most of the elected representatives won't know much about how councils are run.

    Which is potentially a great position to be in for a party seeking national power to Reform the country. They will have endless examples to draw on of dysfunctional outcomes caused by statutory obligations imposed on local government.
    Those statutory obligations are little things like education, social work, bins collection and social care. Also child safeguarding - is that something Reform are going to complain about?!

    In fact, a lot of stuff that is "broken" about the UK is actually governed at the local level.
    At a guess, we're going to end up with quite a lot of town hall mini-Trumps trying to slash services so that they can cut council tax. That may be popular with ex-Tory Refukkers, but perhaps not so much with ex-Labour ones.
    Would be very difficult, Chris, without breaching statutory obligations. This is where I think we will find the Refukkers are well and truly cattle trucked.
    Doesn't that just mean they'll have to slash services without such protection, and even so will be able to deliver only modest tax cuts? Which could be the worst of both worlds.
    Political ideology meets reality, Chris. Popcorn sales rocket.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,570
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Devon completes their count.

    East Devon (11/11)
    Axminister: Ind gain from Con
    Broadcylst (2): 1 Grn hold, 1 Ref gain from Con
    Exmouth (2): 1 Con hold, 1 Ref gain from Con
    Exmouth and Budleigh Salterton Coastal: LD gain from Con
    Feniton & Honiton: LD gain from Con
    Otter Valley: Ind hold
    Seaton & Colyton: LD gain from Con
    Sidmouth: LD gain from Con
    Whimple and Blackdown: LD gain from Con

    Exeter (9/9)
    Alphington & Cowick: Ref gain from Lab
    Duryard & Pennsylvania: LD gain from Con
    Exwick & St Thomas: Ref gain from Lab
    Heavitree & Whipton Barton: Grn gain from Lab
    Pinhoe & Mincinglake: Ref gain from Lab
    St Sidwells & St James: Grn gain from Lab
    St Davids & Haven Banks: Grn gain from Lab
    Wearside & Topsham: Con hold
    Wonford & St Loyes: Ref gain from Lab

    Mid Devon (6/6)
    Crediton: LD hold
    Creedy Taw & Mid Exe: LD gain from Con
    Cullompton & Bradninch: LD gain from Con
    Willand & Uffculme: LD gain from Con
    Tiverton East: Ref gain from Con
    Tiverton West: LD gain from Con

    North Devon (8/8)
    Barnstaple North: LD hold
    Barnstaple South: LD hold
    Braunton Rural: LD gain from Con
    Chulmleigh & Landkey: LD gain from Con
    Combe Martin Rural: Con hold
    Fremington Rural: LD gain from Ind
    Ilfracombe: Grn gain from Con
    South Molton: Ref gain from Con

    South Hams (7/7)
    Bickley & Wembury: Con hold
    Dartmouth & Marldon: LD gain from Con
    Ivybridge: LD gain from Con
    Kingsbridge: LD hold
    Salcombe: LD gain from Con
    South Brent & Yealmpton: LD hold
    Totnes & Dartington: Grn hold

    Teignbridge (10/10)
    Ashburton & Buckfastleigh: Con hold
    Bovey Rural: LD gain from Con
    Chudleigh & Teign Valley: LD gain from Con
    Dawlish: LD hold
    Exminster & Haldon: LD hold
    Ipplepen & The Kerswells: Ref gain from LD
    Kingsteignton & Teign Estuary: Ref gain from Con
    Newton Abbot North: Ref gain from Con
    Newton Abbot South: Ref gain from Ind
    Teignmouth: LD hold

    Torridge (5/5)
    Bideford East: Ref gain from Con
    Bideford West & Hartland: Ref gain from Con
    Holsworthy Rural: Ref gain from Con
    Northam: Con hold
    Torrington Rural: LD gain from Con

    West Devon (4/4)
    Hatherleigh & Chagford: Ref gain from Con
    Okehampton Rural: Ref gain from Con
    Tavistock: Con hold
    Yelverton Rural: Ref gain from Con

    After 60/60 seats declared
    Reform: 18 (+18) (12 gains from Con, 4 from Lab, 1 from LD, 1 from Ind)
    Liberal Democrats: 27 (+18) (18 gains from Con, 1 from Ind, 1 loss to Ref)
    Conservatives: 7 (-32) (18 losses to LD, 12 to Ref, 1 to Grn, 1 to Ind)
    Green: 6 (+4) (3 gains from Lab, 1 from Con)
    Labour: 0 (-7) (4 losses to Ref, 3 to Grn)
    Independent: 2 (-1) (1 gain from Con, 1 loss to LD, 1 loss to Ref)

    LibDem/Green administration?
    Labour: ZERO

    I know this is provincial England, but Labour are being wiped out entirely. Shows they are doing easily as bad as the Tories

    Starmer has to act. He needs to sack Reeves and Miliband, for a start. Because as things stand he is hurtling to oblivion with no plan to change course
    How did they fail to win a seat in Exeter?
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,441
    Lib Dems take Gloucestershire,
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,116
    Staffordshire to the sea - the 'Teal Wall'? Have to think of a better name for it!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,808
    Any moment now Starmer will be learning the lessons.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,817

    Any moment now Starmer will be learning the lessons.

    Too busy changing.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,229
    Lib Dems have now moved into second place in councillors on the night, ahead of the Tories (but Reform with more than both combined). However, they look likely to miss out on the headline target of Hull & East Riding.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,689
    Notts falls to teals.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,565
    Andy_JS said:

    Another possible reason for the election result imo.

    "Proceduralism is killing Britain
    Process triumphs over principle and practicality in every aspect of life

    By Sebastian Milbank"

    https://thecritic.co.uk/proceduralism-is-killing-britain/

    This is spot on. Whenever one challenges it one is told it can't be changed due to regulators or legals or efficiency or REASONS.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 6,293

    Starmer’s comms are truly inept.

    https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1918276396566143014

    National security is the bedrock of our Plan for Change.

    I am determined to keep this country safe and invest in defence spending that will bring jobs and growth.

    We’re going further and faster to deliver the security you deserve.

    ChatGPT could write better stuff
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,565
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Devon completes their count.

    East Devon (11/11)
    Axminister: Ind gain from Con
    Broadcylst (2): 1 Grn hold, 1 Ref gain from Con
    Exmouth (2): 1 Con hold, 1 Ref gain from Con
    Exmouth and Budleigh Salterton Coastal: LD gain from Con
    Feniton & Honiton: LD gain from Con
    Otter Valley: Ind hold
    Seaton & Colyton: LD gain from Con
    Sidmouth: LD gain from Con
    Whimple and Blackdown: LD gain from Con

    Exeter (9/9)
    Alphington & Cowick: Ref gain from Lab
    Duryard & Pennsylvania: LD gain from Con
    Exwick & St Thomas: Ref gain from Lab
    Heavitree & Whipton Barton: Grn gain from Lab
    Pinhoe & Mincinglake: Ref gain from Lab
    St Sidwells & St James: Grn gain from Lab
    St Davids & Haven Banks: Grn gain from Lab
    Wearside & Topsham: Con hold
    Wonford & St Loyes: Ref gain from Lab

    Mid Devon (6/6)
    Crediton: LD hold
    Creedy Taw & Mid Exe: LD gain from Con
    Cullompton & Bradninch: LD gain from Con
    Willand & Uffculme: LD gain from Con
    Tiverton East: Ref gain from Con
    Tiverton West: LD gain from Con

    North Devon (8/8)
    Barnstaple North: LD hold
    Barnstaple South: LD hold
    Braunton Rural: LD gain from Con
    Chulmleigh & Landkey: LD gain from Con
    Combe Martin Rural: Con hold
    Fremington Rural: LD gain from Ind
    Ilfracombe: Grn gain from Con
    South Molton: Ref gain from Con

    South Hams (7/7)
    Bickley & Wembury: Con hold
    Dartmouth & Marldon: LD gain from Con
    Ivybridge: LD gain from Con
    Kingsbridge: LD hold
    Salcombe: LD gain from Con
    South Brent & Yealmpton: LD hold
    Totnes & Dartington: Grn hold

    Teignbridge (10/10)
    Ashburton & Buckfastleigh: Con hold
    Bovey Rural: LD gain from Con
    Chudleigh & Teign Valley: LD gain from Con
    Dawlish: LD hold
    Exminster & Haldon: LD hold
    Ipplepen & The Kerswells: Ref gain from LD
    Kingsteignton & Teign Estuary: Ref gain from Con
    Newton Abbot North: Ref gain from Con
    Newton Abbot South: Ref gain from Ind
    Teignmouth: LD hold

    Torridge (5/5)
    Bideford East: Ref gain from Con
    Bideford West & Hartland: Ref gain from Con
    Holsworthy Rural: Ref gain from Con
    Northam: Con hold
    Torrington Rural: LD gain from Con

    West Devon (4/4)
    Hatherleigh & Chagford: Ref gain from Con
    Okehampton Rural: Ref gain from Con
    Tavistock: Con hold
    Yelverton Rural: Ref gain from Con

    After 60/60 seats declared
    Reform: 18 (+18) (12 gains from Con, 4 from Lab, 1 from LD, 1 from Ind)
    Liberal Democrats: 27 (+18) (18 gains from Con, 1 from Ind, 1 loss to Ref)
    Conservatives: 7 (-32) (18 losses to LD, 12 to Ref, 1 to Grn, 1 to Ind)
    Green: 6 (+4) (3 gains from Lab, 1 from Con)
    Labour: 0 (-7) (4 losses to Ref, 3 to Grn)
    Independent: 2 (-1) (1 gain from Con, 1 loss to LD, 1 loss to Ref)

    LibDem/Green administration?
    Labour: ZERO

    I know this is provincial England, but Labour are being wiped out entirely. Shows they are doing easily as bad as the Tories

    Starmer has to act. He needs to sack Reeves and Miliband, for a start. Because as things stand he is hurtling to oblivion with no plan to change course
    He can't because he has to offer his base something and maintain the left part of his coalition too.

    And, they love Miliband - even though he's a prat.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,093

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    .

    TOPPING said:

    It's complicated, but if I had to identify one single thing behind the Reform surge it would be asylum seekers in hotels. There's enough outrage about this to add quite a few percent to the Reform vote everywhere as, rightly or wrongly (probably the latter), people think they could solve it.

    This ties in with the boats. Now, this election notwithstanding, where I think those who don't like foreigners are making their position known, the UK has consistently shown that it is happy to have immigrants, and plenty of them. What they don't like is being out of control, or freeloaders.

    The boats represent a tangible example of the government not being able to control its own borders, and hence why successive governments are so keen to stop them, despite the tiny numbers arriving in this way.

    Likewise, "asylum hotels" are seen as freeloading and jumping the queue. And every freeborn Englishman detests queue jumpers.
    The people in hotels would love to have jobs. That’s what they’re hoping for, to get asylum and to be allowed to get a job. The rules don’t let them have jobs. The system forces them not to do anything and the Tories then produced these very long proceeding times.
    Do you not see how allowing asylum seekers to work would be abused? It would also undermine the visa system and is against the interests of local workers.
    I'm not saying it's a good idea to allow asylum seekers to work. I'm saying that calling them freeloaders is inaccurate. What would be good is to process applications as quickly as possible, to deport those we should deport quickly and to admit those we want to admit quickly so they can stop freeloading and start contributing.
    Contributing to holding down wages and competing for housing... Giving Deliveroo an even more plentiful supply of migrant workers might be in their interests but it's not in the national interest.
    On a related note, I've just come back from Sale town centre to find a small tent encampment has been set up by MEANA men who are apparently asylum seekers who have been granted leave to remain. I don't know whether the same things are features of other small provincial towns and suburbs, but I'd suggest it hasn't done Reform's chances any harm.
    They are everywhere

    I met a friend yesterday for drinks, Tramadol and Gascake, and he told me of a recent visit to Bournemouth - a town he knows well, as he's from Dorset

    Bournemouth has always had a grungey side but he said it is now positively menacing for a mile or more, in the town centre. With asylum seekers - exactly as you describe - loitering eveywhere, apparently doing nothing

    They all have to go. Send them all home. Withdraw from the EHRC and cancel the general right to asylum, except for unique cases like Ukraine and HK. Enough

    We've got them in Camden too, but to be fair they probably make Camden Town, by the Tube, a bit nicer
    I visit Bournemouth and surrounding areas a lot. I was there last week and can tell you that the towncentre does indeed have a homeless problem, but the vast majority appear to be British.
    I never mentioned homeless - tho they too are an issue - I said people loitering around doing nothing. Asylum seekers in the main. And yes they are a big concern in Bournemouth


    "AN MP has called on the government to stop adding asylum hotels in Bournemouth."

    https://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/25017271.bournemouth-mp-asks-government-stop-adding-asylum-hotels/

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,567
    Not sexist in the slightest...

    https://x.com/BBCPolitics/status/1918214538438008980

    BBC Politics

    @BBCPolitics
    Reform UK's Andrea Jenkyns is the new mayor of Greater Lincolnshire, marking a return to politics for the former Greggs worker and Miss UK finalist
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,438
    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    .

    TOPPING said:

    It's complicated, but if I had to identify one single thing behind the Reform surge it would be asylum seekers in hotels. There's enough outrage about this to add quite a few percent to the Reform vote everywhere as, rightly or wrongly (probably the latter), people think they could solve it.

    This ties in with the boats. Now, this election notwithstanding, where I think those who don't like foreigners are making their position known, the UK has consistently shown that it is happy to have immigrants, and plenty of them. What they don't like is being out of control, or freeloaders.

    The boats represent a tangible example of the government not being able to control its own borders, and hence why successive governments are so keen to stop them, despite the tiny numbers arriving in this way.

    Likewise, "asylum hotels" are seen as freeloading and jumping the queue. And every freeborn Englishman detests queue jumpers.
    The people in hotels would love to have jobs. That’s what they’re hoping for, to get asylum and to be allowed to get a job. The rules don’t let them have jobs. The system forces them not to do anything and the Tories then produced these very long proceeding times.
    Do you not see how allowing asylum seekers to work would be abused? It would also undermine the visa system and is against the interests of local workers.
    I'm not saying it's a good idea to allow asylum seekers to work. I'm saying that calling them freeloaders is inaccurate. What would be good is to process applications as quickly as possible, to deport those we should deport quickly and to admit those we want to admit quickly so they can stop freeloading and start contributing.
    Contributing to holding down wages and competing for housing... Giving Deliveroo an even more plentiful supply of migrant workers might be in their interests but it's not in the national interest.
    On a related note, I've just come back from Sale town centre to find a small tent encampment has been set up by MEANA men who are apparently asylum seekers who have been granted leave to remain. I don't know whether the same things are features of other small provincial towns and suburbs, but I'd suggest it hasn't done Reform's chances any harm.
    They are everywhere

    I met a friend yesterday for drinks, Tramadol and Gascake, and he told me of a recent visit to Bournemouth - a town he knows well, as he's from Dorset

    Bournemouth has always had a grungey side but he said it is now positively menacing for a mile or more, in the town centre. With asylum seekers - exactly as you describe - loitering eveywhere, apparently doing nothing

    They all have to go. Send them all home. Withdraw from the EHRC and cancel the general right to asylum, except for unique cases like Ukraine and HK. Enough

    We've got them in Camden too, but to be fair they probably make Camden Town, by the Tube, a bit nicer
    Photoshop some Islamist downfall of the West type slogans onto pics of their knuckles and the jobs a good ‘un.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,093
    TOPPING said:

    Anyway, remember when I said I can't believe that Reform will get that many votes. Well...

    Yours
    TOPPING - your commentator with razor sharp political antennae

    Yes, one of your most hilariously inept predictions

    "I know I live in a Woke bubble, but surely people won't really vote for Reform? I just can't see it" etc etc etc

    However, you have the good grace to own up to a howling error, so fair play, Sir
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,570
    "Reform has now gained Lancashire County Council from the Conservatives."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c39jedewxp8t
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,921

    Cookie said:

    .

    TOPPING said:

    It's complicated, but if I had to identify one single thing behind the Reform surge it would be asylum seekers in hotels. There's enough outrage about this to add quite a few percent to the Reform vote everywhere as, rightly or wrongly (probably the latter), people think they could solve it.

    This ties in with the boats. Now, this election notwithstanding, where I think those who don't like foreigners are making their position known, the UK has consistently shown that it is happy to have immigrants, and plenty of them. What they don't like is being out of control, or freeloaders.

    The boats represent a tangible example of the government not being able to control its own borders, and hence why successive governments are so keen to stop them, despite the tiny numbers arriving in this way.

    Likewise, "asylum hotels" are seen as freeloading and jumping the queue. And every freeborn Englishman detests queue jumpers.
    The people in hotels would love to have jobs. That’s what they’re hoping for, to get asylum and to be allowed to get a job. The rules don’t let them have jobs. The system forces them not to do anything and the Tories then produced these very long proceeding times.
    Do you not see how allowing asylum seekers to work would be abused? It would also undermine the visa system and is against the interests of local workers.
    I'm not saying it's a good idea to allow asylum seekers to work. I'm saying that calling them freeloaders is inaccurate. What would be good is to process applications as quickly as possible, to deport those we should deport quickly and to admit those we want to admit quickly so they can stop freeloading and start contributing.
    Contributing to holding down wages and competing for housing... Giving Deliveroo an even more plentiful supply of migrant workers might be in their interests but it's not in the national interest.
    On a related note, I've just come back from Sale town centre to find a small tent encampment has been set up by MEANA men who are apparently asylum seekers who have been granted leave to remain. I don't know whether the same things are features of other small provincial towns and suburbs, but I'd suggest it hasn't done Reform's chances any harm.
    If they have been granted leave to remain, they are not asylum seekers. They have been given asylum. They are asylum gainers.
    Yes - to clarify, my understanding is that they were asylum seekers (I guess arriving via small boats) and are now asylum gainers.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,093

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Devon completes their count.

    East Devon (11/11)
    Axminister: Ind gain from Con
    Broadcylst (2): 1 Grn hold, 1 Ref gain from Con
    Exmouth (2): 1 Con hold, 1 Ref gain from Con
    Exmouth and Budleigh Salterton Coastal: LD gain from Con
    Feniton & Honiton: LD gain from Con
    Otter Valley: Ind hold
    Seaton & Colyton: LD gain from Con
    Sidmouth: LD gain from Con
    Whimple and Blackdown: LD gain from Con

    Exeter (9/9)
    Alphington & Cowick: Ref gain from Lab
    Duryard & Pennsylvania: LD gain from Con
    Exwick & St Thomas: Ref gain from Lab
    Heavitree & Whipton Barton: Grn gain from Lab
    Pinhoe & Mincinglake: Ref gain from Lab
    St Sidwells & St James: Grn gain from Lab
    St Davids & Haven Banks: Grn gain from Lab
    Wearside & Topsham: Con hold
    Wonford & St Loyes: Ref gain from Lab

    Mid Devon (6/6)
    Crediton: LD hold
    Creedy Taw & Mid Exe: LD gain from Con
    Cullompton & Bradninch: LD gain from Con
    Willand & Uffculme: LD gain from Con
    Tiverton East: Ref gain from Con
    Tiverton West: LD gain from Con

    North Devon (8/8)
    Barnstaple North: LD hold
    Barnstaple South: LD hold
    Braunton Rural: LD gain from Con
    Chulmleigh & Landkey: LD gain from Con
    Combe Martin Rural: Con hold
    Fremington Rural: LD gain from Ind
    Ilfracombe: Grn gain from Con
    South Molton: Ref gain from Con

    South Hams (7/7)
    Bickley & Wembury: Con hold
    Dartmouth & Marldon: LD gain from Con
    Ivybridge: LD gain from Con
    Kingsbridge: LD hold
    Salcombe: LD gain from Con
    South Brent & Yealmpton: LD hold
    Totnes & Dartington: Grn hold

    Teignbridge (10/10)
    Ashburton & Buckfastleigh: Con hold
    Bovey Rural: LD gain from Con
    Chudleigh & Teign Valley: LD gain from Con
    Dawlish: LD hold
    Exminster & Haldon: LD hold
    Ipplepen & The Kerswells: Ref gain from LD
    Kingsteignton & Teign Estuary: Ref gain from Con
    Newton Abbot North: Ref gain from Con
    Newton Abbot South: Ref gain from Ind
    Teignmouth: LD hold

    Torridge (5/5)
    Bideford East: Ref gain from Con
    Bideford West & Hartland: Ref gain from Con
    Holsworthy Rural: Ref gain from Con
    Northam: Con hold
    Torrington Rural: LD gain from Con

    West Devon (4/4)
    Hatherleigh & Chagford: Ref gain from Con
    Okehampton Rural: Ref gain from Con
    Tavistock: Con hold
    Yelverton Rural: Ref gain from Con

    After 60/60 seats declared
    Reform: 18 (+18) (12 gains from Con, 4 from Lab, 1 from LD, 1 from Ind)
    Liberal Democrats: 27 (+18) (18 gains from Con, 1 from Ind, 1 loss to Ref)
    Conservatives: 7 (-32) (18 losses to LD, 12 to Ref, 1 to Grn, 1 to Ind)
    Green: 6 (+4) (3 gains from Lab, 1 from Con)
    Labour: 0 (-7) (4 losses to Ref, 3 to Grn)
    Independent: 2 (-1) (1 gain from Con, 1 loss to LD, 1 loss to Ref)

    LibDem/Green administration?
    Labour: ZERO

    I know this is provincial England, but Labour are being wiped out entirely. Shows they are doing easily as bad as the Tories

    Starmer has to act. He needs to sack Reeves and Miliband, for a start. Because as things stand he is hurtling to oblivion with no plan to change course
    He can't because he has to offer his base something and maintain the left part of his coalition too.

    And, they love Miliband - even though he's a prat.
    Then Reeves at least, surely. Then he can backtrack on WFA if he is so inclined

    Just carrying on like this is not tenable. They literally have no plan, no ideas, nothing, and everything they have tried has turned to dredk
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,359
    rcs1000 said:

    Taz said:

    So far it looks like Reform performing to par or just above, Lib Dems performing well, Green a few gains, Labour as expected and the Tories getting an absolute dicking.

    I would say Reform is doing extremely well, the LibDems quite well, Greens are falling slightly short, and both Labour and Conservatives are being hammered.
    Greens fell well short in failing to win the West Country mayoralty for which they were odds-on favourites. Nor have they done much elsewhere despite the big parties' problems. They can't be happy with these results.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,993
    Andy_JS said:

    The world according to Mogg.

    "Jacob Rees-Mogg says 'conservatism having fantastic 24 hours', as he urges Tories and Reform UK to work together"

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2025/may/02/local-elections-polls-labour-tories-reform-council-mayor-uk-politics-live-news

    There's nothing "conservative" about Reform. They want to break the whole place up. They are populists - a different thing altogether.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,267

    I will not visit any county with a Reform council.

    Like Trump’s America you have to hit them in their wallets.

    If journeying from London to Sheffield by car then you might have to avoid service station and rest and lunch stops for a while.....
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,438
    edited May 2
    sarissa said:

    Staffordshire to the sea - the 'Teal Wall'? Have to think of a better name for it!

    Scieldweall
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,565
    Sean_F said:

    I think we could be seeing 700 + Reform councillors.

    Which means we'll probably get 437 different stories of lunacy and shenanigans over the next 4 years.

    Not sure this sort of profile will help them.

    Unless no-one really gives a crap about performance anymore, and it's just a pissing contest.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,693
    edited May 2

    rcs1000 said:

    Taz said:

    So far it looks like Reform performing to par or just above, Lib Dems performing well, Green a few gains, Labour as expected and the Tories getting an absolute dicking.

    I would say Reform is doing extremely well, the LibDems quite well, Greens are falling slightly short, and both Labour and Conservatives are being hammered.
    Greens fell well short in failing to win the West Country mayoralty for which they were odds-on favourites. Nor have they done much elsewhere despite the big parties' problems. They can't be happy with these results.
    They look to be doing ok in Gloucestershire, John, and are likely to hold significant influence here by effectively caucusing with the LDs, who look to be falling just short of outright control.


    Edit: And bang on cue the result from Stroud, which will surprise nobody who has visited recently. (It is actually a delightful place.)

    Stroud Central is Green gain from Labour

    Piers Hobson The Socialist Party of Great Britain 25

    George William James Liberal Democrats 195

    Hena Mannan-Rahman Conservative 309

    Chris Moore Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition 49

    Shelley Rider Labour 799

    Natalie Rothwell-Warn Green Party 2166

    Daryl Leslie Arthur Smith Reform UK 697
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,817
    tlg86 said:

    Not sexist in the slightest...

    https://x.com/BBCPolitics/status/1918214538438008980

    BBC Politics

    @BBCPolitics
    Reform UK's Andrea Jenkyns is the new mayor of Greater Lincolnshire, marking a return to politics for the former Greggs worker and Miss UK finalist

    She looks OK, but not as OK as Sarah Pochin.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,799

    carnforth said:

    Cookie said:

    .

    TOPPING said:

    It's complicated, but if I had to identify one single thing behind the Reform surge it would be asylum seekers in hotels. There's enough outrage about this to add quite a few percent to the Reform vote everywhere as, rightly or wrongly (probably the latter), people think they could solve it.

    This ties in with the boats. Now, this election notwithstanding, where I think those who don't like foreigners are making their position known, the UK has consistently shown that it is happy to have immigrants, and plenty of them. What they don't like is being out of control, or freeloaders.

    The boats represent a tangible example of the government not being able to control its own borders, and hence why successive governments are so keen to stop them, despite the tiny numbers arriving in this way.

    Likewise, "asylum hotels" are seen as freeloading and jumping the queue. And every freeborn Englishman detests queue jumpers.
    The people in hotels would love to have jobs. That’s what they’re hoping for, to get asylum and to be allowed to get a job. The rules don’t let them have jobs. The system forces them not to do anything and the Tories then produced these very long proceeding times.
    Do you not see how allowing asylum seekers to work would be abused? It would also undermine the visa system and is against the interests of local workers.
    I'm not saying it's a good idea to allow asylum seekers to work. I'm saying that calling them freeloaders is inaccurate. What would be good is to process applications as quickly as possible, to deport those we should deport quickly and to admit those we want to admit quickly so they can stop freeloading and start contributing.
    Contributing to holding down wages and competing for housing... Giving Deliveroo an even more plentiful supply of migrant workers might be in their interests but it's not in the national interest.
    On a related note, I've just come back from Sale town centre to find a small tent encampment has been set up by MEANA men who are apparently asylum seekers who have been granted leave to remain. I don't know whether the same things are features of other small provincial towns and suburbs, but I'd suggest it hasn't done Reform's chances any harm.
    If they have been granted leave to remain, they are not asylum seekers. They have been given asylum. They are asylum gainers.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/granting-discretionary-leave/discretionary-leave-accessible
    Cookie didn't say they had been granted Discretionary Leave. There are various different "leave to remain" categories. If that is what he meant, my apologies, I misunderstood. The numbers on Discretionary Leave are meant to be very low. They are an odd category. If I have this right, they cannot usually apply for any benefits, but they can work? This seems counterproductive and will lead to things like small tent encampments.
    Oh, I didn't think he did. I was just nitpicking...

    But if we refuse asylum and then can't deport, what can we do? I suspect sometimes it ends up being the same as having allowed the asylum claim just with extra steps...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,925
    SKS fans please explain.
    SKS will go down in history as the man who killed the Labour Party and handed the keys of No. 10 to the far right. Oh, and supported genocide.

    That's his legacy.

    And he couldn't have done it without the support of "left-leaning liberals" who demonised the jam man.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,328
    Tbh I'm sort of glad they have total control over Nottinghamshire council rather than being in hoc to independents from Ashfield and Mansfield.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,093

    Sean_F said:

    I think we could be seeing 700 + Reform councillors.

    Which means we'll probably get 437 different stories of lunacy and shenanigans over the next 4 years.

    Not sure this sort of profile will help them.

    Unless no-one really gives a crap about performance anymore, and it's just a pissing contest.
    As has been pointed out, they will simply blame national government, and say we need overall power

    And it has a good chance of succeeding. Many other insurgent parties have done this to great effect - eg the SNP
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,423
    Andy_JS said:

    Another possible reason for the election result imo.

    "Proceduralism is killing Britain
    Process triumphs over principle and practicality in every aspect of life

    By Sebastian Milbank"

    https://thecritic.co.uk/proceduralism-is-killing-britain/

    @Malmesbury , this one's for you I think.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,689
    Luke Tryl
    @luketryl.bsky.social‬

    Look at that pincer movement in Devon, the Conservative's controlled this council before and are now being eaten by the Liberal Democrats to the centre and Reform to their 'right', what's the platform that wins them both back?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,093
    Every time I reclick the BBC election website, the Reform number surges

    Now 465, with 13 councils still to declare, out of 23. Might hit 700? Even 750?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,570
    edited May 2
    Devon is probably going to be a LD-Green coalition (even though Con/Ref won 50% of votes).
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,184

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Devon completes their count.

    East Devon (11/11)
    Axminister: Ind gain from Con
    Broadcylst (2): 1 Grn hold, 1 Ref gain from Con
    Exmouth (2): 1 Con hold, 1 Ref gain from Con
    Exmouth and Budleigh Salterton Coastal: LD gain from Con
    Feniton & Honiton: LD gain from Con
    Otter Valley: Ind hold
    Seaton & Colyton: LD gain from Con
    Sidmouth: LD gain from Con
    Whimple and Blackdown: LD gain from Con

    Exeter (9/9)
    Alphington & Cowick: Ref gain from Lab
    Duryard & Pennsylvania: LD gain from Con
    Exwick & St Thomas: Ref gain from Lab
    Heavitree & Whipton Barton: Grn gain from Lab
    Pinhoe & Mincinglake: Ref gain from Lab
    St Sidwells & St James: Grn gain from Lab
    St Davids & Haven Banks: Grn gain from Lab
    Wearside & Topsham: Con hold
    Wonford & St Loyes: Ref gain from Lab

    Mid Devon (6/6)
    Crediton: LD hold
    Creedy Taw & Mid Exe: LD gain from Con
    Cullompton & Bradninch: LD gain from Con
    Willand & Uffculme: LD gain from Con
    Tiverton East: Ref gain from Con
    Tiverton West: LD gain from Con

    North Devon (8/8)
    Barnstaple North: LD hold
    Barnstaple South: LD hold
    Braunton Rural: LD gain from Con
    Chulmleigh & Landkey: LD gain from Con
    Combe Martin Rural: Con hold
    Fremington Rural: LD gain from Ind
    Ilfracombe: Grn gain from Con
    South Molton: Ref gain from Con

    South Hams (7/7)
    Bickley & Wembury: Con hold
    Dartmouth & Marldon: LD gain from Con
    Ivybridge: LD gain from Con
    Kingsbridge: LD hold
    Salcombe: LD gain from Con
    South Brent & Yealmpton: LD hold
    Totnes & Dartington: Grn hold

    Teignbridge (10/10)
    Ashburton & Buckfastleigh: Con hold
    Bovey Rural: LD gain from Con
    Chudleigh & Teign Valley: LD gain from Con
    Dawlish: LD hold
    Exminster & Haldon: LD hold
    Ipplepen & The Kerswells: Ref gain from LD
    Kingsteignton & Teign Estuary: Ref gain from Con
    Newton Abbot North: Ref gain from Con
    Newton Abbot South: Ref gain from Ind
    Teignmouth: LD hold

    Torridge (5/5)
    Bideford East: Ref gain from Con
    Bideford West & Hartland: Ref gain from Con
    Holsworthy Rural: Ref gain from Con
    Northam: Con hold
    Torrington Rural: LD gain from Con

    West Devon (4/4)
    Hatherleigh & Chagford: Ref gain from Con
    Okehampton Rural: Ref gain from Con
    Tavistock: Con hold
    Yelverton Rural: Ref gain from Con

    After 60/60 seats declared
    Reform: 18 (+18) (12 gains from Con, 4 from Lab, 1 from LD, 1 from Ind)
    Liberal Democrats: 27 (+18) (18 gains from Con, 1 from Ind, 1 loss to Ref)
    Conservatives: 7 (-32) (18 losses to LD, 12 to Ref, 1 to Grn, 1 to Ind)
    Green: 6 (+4) (3 gains from Lab, 1 from Con)
    Labour: 0 (-7) (4 losses to Ref, 3 to Grn)
    Independent: 2 (-1) (1 gain from Con, 1 loss to LD, 1 loss to Ref)

    LibDem/Green administration?
    Labour: ZERO

    I know this is provincial England, but Labour are being wiped out entirely. Shows they are doing easily as bad as the Tories

    Starmer has to act. He needs to sack Reeves and Miliband, for a start. Because as things stand he is hurtling to oblivion with no plan to change course
    He can't because he has to offer his base something and maintain the left part of his coalition too.

    And, they love Miliband - even though he's a prat.
    I don't think the affection for Milliband is a left/right issue. He has a couple of more simply emotional things going for him.

    Firstly he's a link to the before times. He was leader of Labour in what now can feel like a more innocent time - before Brexit, before Boris, before Corbyn, before Trump - when Farage could still be safely laughed at as splitting the Tory party asunder.

    Secondly, he stuck around. He didn't sod off too make millions elsewhere, he stayed in politics and he went through the difficult years of opposition with the rest of the party members. He was loyal to them and they will be loyal to him.

    I really don't think it has anything to do with his political positioning in the slightest.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,811
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Anyway, remember when I said I can't believe that Reform will get that many votes. Well...

    Yours
    TOPPING - your commentator with razor sharp political antennae

    Yes, one of your most hilariously inept predictions

    "I know I live in a Woke bubble, but surely people won't really vote for Reform? I just can't see it" etc etc etc

    However, you have the good grace to own up to a howling error, so fair play, Sir
    Howlingly funny saying I live in a woke bubble notwithstanding, I am very much a glass half full kind of guy. I really want to believe that on the whole people aren't fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists but there's no doubting today's vote.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,394
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Am I right that Reform now look likely to exceed their highest expectation, in councils and councillors?

    I thought Reform would come first: they're leading in the national polls, they had a favorable (i.e. Brexity) set of elections this year, and they stood in almost every ward.

    However, the extent of their victory is really quite something. They have absolutely swept the board. They're not going to be running a few councils - they're going to be running lots.

    Labour have been destroyed - they could end up trailing Independents and the Greens. The Conservatives have done little better: they've lost three quarters of seats, and could end up below the Liberal Democrats. The LibDems have done OK - they've markedly increased their representation, and might well be second in terms of number of Councillors. While the Greens have increased their number of Councillors, they're stuck well below the number of Independents.

    So, yes, the story is Reform.

    Which is great for Reform, but also brings with it a challenge. Running councils is a thankless job, because of the number of things you are legally required to spend money on. It's also highly likely that most of the elected representatives won't know much about how councils are run.

    Let's see how they do.
    Farage more or less says the same at the end of this interview; the greatest challenge is winning, because failing to deliver will mean the public say Reform are just like the rest

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DCATeZUGv08
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,772
    BBC: Too early to calculate Projected National Share
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,270
    LibDems have a majority of the divisions so far declared in Cambs, with mostly just Cambridge City - now mostly Labour but historically a LibDem/Labour battleground - to come
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,093
    Another startling fact, with 10 of 23 counties declared, 4 have ended up as No Overall Control, and Reform have won 6

    That's it. No other party has won a council, yet

    WTF
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,570
    edited May 2
    Kent = Ref majority.

    https://x.com/Kent_cc
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,270
    HYUFD said:

    I will not visit any county with a Reform council.

    Like Trump’s America you have to hit them in their wallets.

    If journeying from London to Sheffield by car then you might have to avoid service station and rest and lunch stops for a while.....
    Define visit as ‘be in’ and that might be a circuitous journey indeed
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,588
    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    I think we could be seeing 700 + Reform councillors.

    Which means we'll probably get 437 different stories of lunacy and shenanigans over the next 4 years.

    Not sure this sort of profile will help them.

    Unless no-one really gives a crap about performance anymore, and it's just a pissing contest.
    As has been pointed out, they will simply blame national government, and say we need overall power

    And it has a good chance of succeeding. Many other insurgent parties have done this to great effect - eg the SNP
    That doesn't always work 100%.

    Take Richmond-Upon-Thames in the 1980s. It was the Alliance's best prospect. They won 48 of 50 seats on the Council. And then they allowed themselves to be conned by a developer, the ice rink got closed (converted to flats), and the developer never delivered the promised new ice rink.

    Result: the LibDems got massacred on the council, while in the rest of the country they were making massive progress, and their best parliamentary seat prospect diminished significantly, until the Torypocalypse of 1997.

    So, sure, you can be insulated to some extent. But some things cut through.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,246
    nico67 said:

    So Reform haven’t got a clue and have duped the gullible. Apparently they’ll start with cutting traffic calming measures so more people can end up as roadkill .

    This will be the most interesting bit for me. Whenever there is outrage over something like 20mph, speed bumps, LTNs etc, it's quickly forgotten when it's outside your school, your house. That's why you get the fun of councillors in Wales finding it very difficult to find any roads to revert to 30mph.

    Local government is micro enough for Reform councillors to have to deal with constant complaints about crap driving around playgrounds and so on. How will they react?
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,347

    Luke Tryl
    @luketryl.bsky.social‬

    Look at that pincer movement in Devon, the Conservative's controlled this council before and are now being eaten by the Liberal Democrats to the centre and Reform to their 'right', what's the platform that wins them both back?

    Quite, losing 18 seats to Lib Dems and 12 to Reform. The same can be said about Labour, losing 4 seats to Reform and 3 to Greens.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,359
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    .

    TOPPING said:

    It's complicated, but if I had to identify one single thing behind the Reform surge it would be asylum seekers in hotels. There's enough outrage about this to add quite a few percent to the Reform vote everywhere as, rightly or wrongly (probably the latter), people think they could solve it.

    This ties in with the boats. Now, this election notwithstanding, where I think those who don't like foreigners are making their position known, the UK has consistently shown that it is happy to have immigrants, and plenty of them. What they don't like is being out of control, or freeloaders.

    The boats represent a tangible example of the government not being able to control its own borders, and hence why successive governments are so keen to stop them, despite the tiny numbers arriving in this way.

    Likewise, "asylum hotels" are seen as freeloading and jumping the queue. And every freeborn Englishman detests queue jumpers.
    The people in hotels would love to have jobs. That’s what they’re hoping for, to get asylum and to be allowed to get a job. The rules don’t let them have jobs. The system forces them not to do anything and the Tories then produced these very long proceeding times.
    Do you not see how allowing asylum seekers to work would be abused? It would also undermine the visa system and is against the interests of local workers.
    I'm not saying it's a good idea to allow asylum seekers to work. I'm saying that calling them freeloaders is inaccurate. What would be good is to process applications as quickly as possible, to deport those we should deport quickly and to admit those we want to admit quickly so they can stop freeloading and start contributing.
    Contributing to holding down wages and competing for housing... Giving Deliveroo an even more plentiful supply of migrant workers might be in their interests but it's not in the national interest.
    On a related note, I've just come back from Sale town centre to find a small tent encampment has been set up by MEANA men who are apparently asylum seekers who have been granted leave to remain. I don't know whether the same things are features of other small provincial towns and suburbs, but I'd suggest it hasn't done Reform's chances any harm.
    They are everywhere

    I met a friend yesterday for drinks, Tramadol and Gascake, and he told me of a recent visit to Bournemouth - a town he knows well, as he's from Dorset

    Bournemouth has always had a grungey side but he said it is now positively menacing for a mile or more, in the town centre. With asylum seekers - exactly as you describe - loitering eveywhere, apparently doing nothing

    They all have to go. Send them all home. Withdraw from the EHRC and cancel the general right to asylum, except for unique cases like Ukraine and HK. Enough

    We've got them in Camden too, but to be fair they probably make Camden Town, by the Tube, a bit nicer
    I visit Bournemouth and surrounding areas a lot. I was there last week and can tell you that the towncentre does indeed have a homeless problem, but the vast majority appear to be British.
    I never mentioned homeless - tho they too are an issue - I said people loitering around doing nothing. Asylum seekers in the main. And yes they are a big concern in Bournemouth


    "AN MP has called on the government to stop adding asylum hotels in Bournemouth."

    https://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/25017271.bournemouth-mp-asks-government-stop-adding-asylum-hotels/

    As I said the other day, the political risk for the government is that emptying asylum (and rough sleeping) hotels straight into Angela Rayner's newly-built houses might prove even more controversial.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,974

    SKS fans please explain.
    SKS will go down in history as the man who killed the Labour Party and handed the keys of No. 10 to the far right. Oh, and supported genocide.

    That's his legacy.

    And he couldn't have done it without the support of "left-leaning liberals" who demonised the jam man.

    He's just the person who happens to be in charge at the tail end of a failing regime and embodies all of its worst features. The Erich Honecker of the UK.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,093

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Devon completes their count.

    East Devon (11/11)
    Axminister: Ind gain from Con
    Broadcylst (2): 1 Grn hold, 1 Ref gain from Con
    Exmouth (2): 1 Con hold, 1 Ref gain from Con
    Exmouth and Budleigh Salterton Coastal: LD gain from Con
    Feniton & Honiton: LD gain from Con
    Otter Valley: Ind hold
    Seaton & Colyton: LD gain from Con
    Sidmouth: LD gain from Con
    Whimple and Blackdown: LD gain from Con

    Exeter (9/9)
    Alphington & Cowick: Ref gain from Lab
    Duryard & Pennsylvania: LD gain from Con
    Exwick & St Thomas: Ref gain from Lab
    Heavitree & Whipton Barton: Grn gain from Lab
    Pinhoe & Mincinglake: Ref gain from Lab
    St Sidwells & St James: Grn gain from Lab
    St Davids & Haven Banks: Grn gain from Lab
    Wearside & Topsham: Con hold
    Wonford & St Loyes: Ref gain from Lab

    Mid Devon (6/6)
    Crediton: LD hold
    Creedy Taw & Mid Exe: LD gain from Con
    Cullompton & Bradninch: LD gain from Con
    Willand & Uffculme: LD gain from Con
    Tiverton East: Ref gain from Con
    Tiverton West: LD gain from Con

    North Devon (8/8)
    Barnstaple North: LD hold
    Barnstaple South: LD hold
    Braunton Rural: LD gain from Con
    Chulmleigh & Landkey: LD gain from Con
    Combe Martin Rural: Con hold
    Fremington Rural: LD gain from Ind
    Ilfracombe: Grn gain from Con
    South Molton: Ref gain from Con

    South Hams (7/7)
    Bickley & Wembury: Con hold
    Dartmouth & Marldon: LD gain from Con
    Ivybridge: LD gain from Con
    Kingsbridge: LD hold
    Salcombe: LD gain from Con
    South Brent & Yealmpton: LD hold
    Totnes & Dartington: Grn hold

    Teignbridge (10/10)
    Ashburton & Buckfastleigh: Con hold
    Bovey Rural: LD gain from Con
    Chudleigh & Teign Valley: LD gain from Con
    Dawlish: LD hold
    Exminster & Haldon: LD hold
    Ipplepen & The Kerswells: Ref gain from LD
    Kingsteignton & Teign Estuary: Ref gain from Con
    Newton Abbot North: Ref gain from Con
    Newton Abbot South: Ref gain from Ind
    Teignmouth: LD hold

    Torridge (5/5)
    Bideford East: Ref gain from Con
    Bideford West & Hartland: Ref gain from Con
    Holsworthy Rural: Ref gain from Con
    Northam: Con hold
    Torrington Rural: LD gain from Con

    West Devon (4/4)
    Hatherleigh & Chagford: Ref gain from Con
    Okehampton Rural: Ref gain from Con
    Tavistock: Con hold
    Yelverton Rural: Ref gain from Con

    After 60/60 seats declared
    Reform: 18 (+18) (12 gains from Con, 4 from Lab, 1 from LD, 1 from Ind)
    Liberal Democrats: 27 (+18) (18 gains from Con, 1 from Ind, 1 loss to Ref)
    Conservatives: 7 (-32) (18 losses to LD, 12 to Ref, 1 to Grn, 1 to Ind)
    Green: 6 (+4) (3 gains from Lab, 1 from Con)
    Labour: 0 (-7) (4 losses to Ref, 3 to Grn)
    Independent: 2 (-1) (1 gain from Con, 1 loss to LD, 1 loss to Ref)

    LibDem/Green administration?
    Labour: ZERO

    I know this is provincial England, but Labour are being wiped out entirely. Shows they are doing easily as bad as the Tories

    Starmer has to act. He needs to sack Reeves and Miliband, for a start. Because as things stand he is hurtling to oblivion with no plan to change course
    He can't because he has to offer his base something and maintain the left part of his coalition too.

    And, they love Miliband - even though he's a prat.
    I don't think the affection for Milliband is a left/right issue. He has a couple of more simply emotional things going for him.

    Firstly he's a link to the before times. He was leader of Labour in what now can feel like a more innocent time - before Brexit, before Boris, before Corbyn, before Trump - when Farage could still be safely laughed at as splitting the Tory party asunder.

    Secondly, he stuck around. He didn't sod off too make millions elsewhere, he stayed in politics and he went through the difficult years of opposition with the rest of the party members. He was loyal to them and they will be loyal to him.

    I really don't think it has anything to do with his political positioning in the slightest.
    Then move him from Ministry of Net Zero Madness. Indeed, promote him

    Lammy is bloody useless as ForSec, put Miliband there where he can't do much damage, but he will have fun flying around the world, lording it over his brother
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,588

    Starmer’s comms are truly inept.

    https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1918276396566143014

    National security is the bedrock of our Plan for Change.

    I am determined to keep this country safe and invest in defence spending that will bring jobs and growth.

    We’re going further and faster to deliver the security you deserve.

    ChatGPT could write better stuff
    Labour is trying to save money by using the free version.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,808

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    .

    TOPPING said:

    It's complicated, but if I had to identify one single thing behind the Reform surge it would be asylum seekers in hotels. There's enough outrage about this to add quite a few percent to the Reform vote everywhere as, rightly or wrongly (probably the latter), people think they could solve it.

    This ties in with the boats. Now, this election notwithstanding, where I think those who don't like foreigners are making their position known, the UK has consistently shown that it is happy to have immigrants, and plenty of them. What they don't like is being out of control, or freeloaders.

    The boats represent a tangible example of the government not being able to control its own borders, and hence why successive governments are so keen to stop them, despite the tiny numbers arriving in this way.

    Likewise, "asylum hotels" are seen as freeloading and jumping the queue. And every freeborn Englishman detests queue jumpers.
    The people in hotels would love to have jobs. That’s what they’re hoping for, to get asylum and to be allowed to get a job. The rules don’t let them have jobs. The system forces them not to do anything and the Tories then produced these very long proceeding times.
    Do you not see how allowing asylum seekers to work would be abused? It would also undermine the visa system and is against the interests of local workers.
    I'm nWhich housesm?ot saying it's a good idea to allow asylum seekers to work. I'm saying that calling them freeloaders is inaccurate. What would be good is to process applications as quickly as possible, to deport those we should deport quickly and to admit those we want to admit quickly so they can stop freeloading and start contributing.
    Contributing to holding down wages and competing for housing... Giving Deliveroo an even more plentiful supply of migrant workers might be in their interests but it's not in the national interest.
    On a related note, I've just come back from Sale town centre to find a small tent encampment has been set up by MEANA men who are apparently asylum seekers who have been granted leave to remain. I don't know whether the same things are features of other small provincial towns and suburbs, but I'd suggest it hasn't done Reform's chances any harm.
    They are everywhere

    I met a friend yesterday for drinks, Tramadol and Gascake, and he told me of a recent visit to Bournemouth - a town he knows well, as he's from Dorset

    Bournemouth has always had a grungey side but he said it is now positively menacing for a mile or more, in the town centre. With asylum seekers - exactly as you describe - loitering eveywhere, apparently doing nothing

    They all have to go. Send them all home. Withdraw from the EHRC and cancel the general right to asylum, except for unique cases like Ukraine and HK. Enough

    We've got them in Camden too, but to be fair they probably make Camden Town, by the Tube, a bit nicer
    I visit Bournemouth and surrounding areas a lot. I was there last week and can tell you that the towncentre does indeed have a homeless problem, but the vast majority appear to be British.
    I never mentioned homeless - tho they too are an issue - I said people loitering around doing nothing. Asylum seekers in the main. And yes they are a big concern in Bournemouth


    "AN MP has called on the government to stop adding asylum hotels in Bournemouth."

    https://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/25017271.bournemouth-mp-asks-government-stop-adding-asylum-hotels/

    As I said the other day, the political risk for the government is that emptying asylum (and rough sleeping) hotels straight into Angela Rayner's newly-built houses might prove even more controversial.
    Which houses ?

    They arent building any
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,579
    edited May 2

    BBC: Too early to calculate Projected National Share

    The North and Midlands locals have been spectacular for Reform, perhaps far more so than the Runcorn and mayoral elections.

    They will need to see how the south plays out for a full NEV calculation, so fair enough.

    But are we looking at a Reform NEV towards 30 and Con and Labour struggling to hit 20 and only a little ahead of LD?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,693
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Anyway, remember when I said I can't believe that Reform will get that many votes. Well...

    Yours
    TOPPING - your commentator with razor sharp political antennae

    Yes, one of your most hilariously inept predictions

    "I know I live in a Woke bubble, but surely people won't really vote for Reform? I just can't see it" etc etc etc

    However, you have the good grace to own up to a howling error, so fair play, Sir
    Howlingly funny saying I live in a woke bubble notwithstanding, I am very much a glass half full kind of guy. I really want to believe that on the whole people aren't fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists but there's no doubting today's vote.

    Well, when Democracy fails to deliver, Topping....
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,772
    sarissa said:

    Staffordshire to the sea - the 'Teal Wall'? Have to think of a better name for it!

    Woke-free, from the Potteries to the Sea.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,184
    Leon said:

    Every time I reclick the BBC election website, the Reform number surges

    Now 465, with 13 councils still to declare, out of 23. Might hit 700? Even 750?

    Earlier they had won just over half the councillors declared, now just under half. 1600 to elect. 800 isn't impossible, depends on the profile of the councils left to declare.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,961
    edited May 2
    Andy_JS said:

    Another possible reason for the election result imo.

    "Proceduralism is killing Britain
    Process triumphs over principle and practicality in every aspect of life

    By Sebastian Milbank"

    https://thecritic.co.uk/proceduralism-is-killing-britain/

    My mother in law has just come out of hospital (home) after 11 days.

    She went in for an X ray. Whilst she was there they did a blood test and decided she needed antibiotics. It was 2am by that point and she was barely awake (and has severe dementia) so they failed to get the medicine down.

    So the process insisted she be admitted for IV, despite the "respect" form. Fine by morning, medically fit to go.

    The next 11 days were purely process for a "safe discharge". Utterly ridiculous and harmful to the patient.

    Nobody is allowed to do anything sensible.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,438
    Burnley Central East has elected the 'end “free mixing” between men and women.' candidate.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,270

    Leon said:

    Every time I reclick the BBC election website, the Reform number surges

    Now 465, with 13 councils still to declare, out of 23. Might hit 700? Even 750?

    Earlier they had won just over half the councillors declared, now just under half. 1600 to elect. 800 isn't impossible, depends on the profile of the councils left to declare.
    I’d say their better ones are overweight among the already declared.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,921
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Anyway, remember when I said I can't believe that Reform will get that many votes. Well...

    Yours
    TOPPING - your commentator with razor sharp political antennae

    Yes, one of your most hilariously inept predictions

    "I know I live in a Woke bubble, but surely people won't really vote for Reform? I just can't see it" etc etc etc

    However, you have the good grace to own up to a howling error, so fair play, Sir
    As a post, Topping's post yesterday was both self-aware (I know I live in a bubble) and astute (in that it showed the extent to which those of us within the bubble fail to acknowledge, engage with or even admit as valid the concerns of those of us outside it as they are, rather than as we would wish them to be). It also coined the term 'extra-bubbular'. So, as you say, fair play.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,840

    Luke Tryl
    @luketryl.bsky.social‬

    Look at that pincer movement in Devon, the Conservative's controlled this council before and are now being eaten by the Liberal Democrats to the centre and Reform to their 'right', what's the platform that wins them both back?

    There isn’t one - they need to pivot in one direction and win that vote back then quickly reverse course and win the other vote back without scaring the first lot away.

    It simply isn’t possible - the Lib Dems are going to steal the centralist Tory vote and Reform the right wing vote.

    After all the last Tory Government wasn’t competent and haven’t a chance of winning so why vote for them.

    That isn’t a proven that Kemi can explain and solve and neither will her replacement
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,588
    Foss said:

    Burnley Central East has elected the 'end “free mixing” between men and women.' candidate.

    He's opposed to self ID?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,770

    NEW THREAD

  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,857
    tlg86 said:

    Striking result from Minchinghampton, south of Cheltenham:

    Minchinhampton held by Greens

    Bella Amory Conservative 444

    Adam Giles Crispin Cain Liberal Democrats 131

    David James Carter Labour 236

    John Lee Marsden Reform UK 622

    Chloe Isobel Turner Green Party 2199


    If you have ever been there you may have noted the resemblance it bears to Middle Earth.

    Christ, look at house prices there:

    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/160214750#/?channel=RES_BUY
    Bit of an outlier you have there.

    That's 4x the size of the UK median house.

    Compared to my house in Ashfield, that's £3000 vs £2100 £/sqm.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,588

    Leon said:

    Every time I reclick the BBC election website, the Reform number surges

    Now 465, with 13 councils still to declare, out of 23. Might hit 700? Even 750?

    Earlier they had won just over half the councillors declared, now just under half. 1600 to elect. 800 isn't impossible, depends on the profile of the councils left to declare.
    The more rural areas have come first, so my guess is that they'll be in the 740-760 range.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,944
    edited May 2
    tlg86 said:

    Not sexist in the slightest...

    https://x.com/BBCPolitics/status/1918214538438008980

    BBC Politics

    @BBCPolitics
    Reform UK's Andrea Jenkyns is the new mayor of Greater Lincolnshire, marking a return to politics for the former Greggs worker and Miss UK finalist

    Just filed by our roving reporter, Roger of PB.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,844
    edited May 2
    nico67 said:

    So Reform haven’t got a clue and have duped the gullible. Apparently they’ll start with cutting traffic calming measures so more people can end up as roadkill .

    It’s atrocious how people fell for Farage’s Divisive and hateful rhetoric.

    Voting agains their own jnterests in favour of Trump.

    Smh.

    😘
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,093
    edited May 2
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    I think we could be seeing 700 + Reform councillors.

    Which means we'll probably get 437 different stories of lunacy and shenanigans over the next 4 years.

    Not sure this sort of profile will help them.

    Unless no-one really gives a crap about performance anymore, and it's just a pissing contest.
    As has been pointed out, they will simply blame national government, and say we need overall power

    And it has a good chance of succeeding. Many other insurgent parties have done this to great effect - eg the SNP
    That doesn't always work 100%.

    Take Richmond-Upon-Thames in the 1980s. It was the Alliance's best prospect. They won 48 of 50 seats on the Council. And then they allowed themselves to be conned by a developer, the ice rink got closed (converted to flats), and the developer never delivered the promised new ice rink.

    Result: the LibDems got massacred on the council, while in the rest of the country they were making massive progress, and their best parliamentary seat prospect diminished significantly, until the Torypocalypse of 1997.

    So, sure, you can be insulated to some extent. But some things cut through.
    Well yes, but this shift to Reform feels much more significant than the SDP or Alliance in the 80s. Because it is just one part of a huge secular shift to the popular/hard right across the West. Britain is merely catchinfg up with France, Italy, the USA, Sweden, etc

    If Starmer wants Labour to survive and even win, there is a way. Copy what the Danish Social Democrats did, get extremely tough on immigration and the culture wars. Bulldoze ethnic ghettoes, severely restrict asylum. That is the only way for the modern Left to prosper, and it works - the Danish centre left does well, still

    But Starmer hasn't got the minerals for this, so he won't do it, so he will lose horribly in 2028
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,184
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Devon completes their count.

    East Devon (11/11)
    Axminister: Ind gain from Con
    Broadcylst (2): 1 Grn hold, 1 Ref gain from Con
    Exmouth (2): 1 Con hold, 1 Ref gain from Con
    Exmouth and Budleigh Salterton Coastal: LD gain from Con
    Feniton & Honiton: LD gain from Con
    Otter Valley: Ind hold
    Seaton & Colyton: LD gain from Con
    Sidmouth: LD gain from Con
    Whimple and Blackdown: LD gain from Con

    Exeter (9/9)
    Alphington & Cowick: Ref gain from Lab
    Duryard & Pennsylvania: LD gain from Con
    Exwick & St Thomas: Ref gain from Lab
    Heavitree & Whipton Barton: Grn gain from Lab
    Pinhoe & Mincinglake: Ref gain from Lab
    St Sidwells & St James: Grn gain from Lab
    St Davids & Haven Banks: Grn gain from Lab
    Wearside & Topsham: Con hold
    Wonford & St Loyes: Ref gain from Lab

    Mid Devon (6/6)
    Crediton: LD hold
    Creedy Taw & Mid Exe: LD gain from Con
    Cullompton & Bradninch: LD gain from Con
    Willand & Uffculme: LD gain from Con
    Tiverton East: Ref gain from Con
    Tiverton West: LD gain from Con

    North Devon (8/8)
    Barnstaple North: LD hold
    Barnstaple South: LD hold
    Braunton Rural: LD gain from Con
    Chulmleigh & Landkey: LD gain from Con
    Combe Martin Rural: Con hold
    Fremington Rural: LD gain from Ind
    Ilfracombe: Grn gain from Con
    South Molton: Ref gain from Con

    South Hams (7/7)
    Bickley & Wembury: Con hold
    Dartmouth & Marldon: LD gain from Con
    Ivybridge: LD gain from Con
    Kingsbridge: LD hold
    Salcombe: LD gain from Con
    South Brent & Yealmpton: LD hold
    Totnes & Dartington: Grn hold

    Teignbridge (10/10)
    Ashburton & Buckfastleigh: Con hold
    Bovey Rural: LD gain from Con
    Chudleigh & Teign Valley: LD gain from Con
    Dawlish: LD hold
    Exminster & Haldon: LD hold
    Ipplepen & The Kerswells: Ref gain from LD
    Kingsteignton & Teign Estuary: Ref gain from Con
    Newton Abbot North: Ref gain from Con
    Newton Abbot South: Ref gain from Ind
    Teignmouth: LD hold

    Torridge (5/5)
    Bideford East: Ref gain from Con
    Bideford West & Hartland: Ref gain from Con
    Holsworthy Rural: Ref gain from Con
    Northam: Con hold
    Torrington Rural: LD gain from Con

    West Devon (4/4)
    Hatherleigh & Chagford: Ref gain from Con
    Okehampton Rural: Ref gain from Con
    Tavistock: Con hold
    Yelverton Rural: Ref gain from Con

    After 60/60 seats declared
    Reform: 18 (+18) (12 gains from Con, 4 from Lab, 1 from LD, 1 from Ind)
    Liberal Democrats: 27 (+18) (18 gains from Con, 1 from Ind, 1 loss to Ref)
    Conservatives: 7 (-32) (18 losses to LD, 12 to Ref, 1 to Grn, 1 to Ind)
    Green: 6 (+4) (3 gains from Lab, 1 from Con)
    Labour: 0 (-7) (4 losses to Ref, 3 to Grn)
    Independent: 2 (-1) (1 gain from Con, 1 loss to LD, 1 loss to Ref)

    LibDem/Green administration?
    Labour: ZERO

    I know this is provincial England, but Labour are being wiped out entirely. Shows they are doing easily as bad as the Tories

    Starmer has to act. He needs to sack Reeves and Miliband, for a start. Because as things stand he is hurtling to oblivion with no plan to change course
    He can't because he has to offer his base something and maintain the left part of his coalition too.

    And, they love Miliband - even though he's a prat.
    I don't think the affection for Milliband is a left/right issue. He has a couple of more simply emotional things going for him.

    Firstly he's a link to the before times. He was leader of Labour in what now can feel like a more innocent time - before Brexit, before Boris, before Corbyn, before Trump - when Farage could still be safely laughed at as splitting the Tory party asunder.

    Secondly, he stuck around. He didn't sod off too make millions elsewhere, he stayed in politics and he went through the difficult years of opposition with the rest of the party members. He was loyal to them and they will be loyal to him.

    I really don't think it has anything to do with his political positioning in the slightest.
    Then move him from Ministry of Net Zero Madness. Indeed, promote him

    Lammy is bloody useless as ForSec, put Miliband there where he can't do much damage, but he will have fun flying around the world, lording it over his brother
    I don't think Milliband is interested in any other job. He has the job he's most interested in.

    He could probably be persuaded to take Reeves' job, if it was presented as being a necessary sacrifice to help out in a crisis - but perhaps that would be an outcome where you'd rue both Reeves and Milliband losing their current jobs?
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,438
    rcs1000 said:

    Foss said:

    Burnley Central East has elected the 'end “free mixing” between men and women.' candidate.

    He's opposed to self ID?
    She.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,817

    sarissa said:

    Staffordshire to the sea - the 'Teal Wall'? Have to think of a better name for it!

    Woke-free, from the Potteries to the Sea.
    Staffs doesn't have a coastline, though Cheshire does.

    "From the Mersey to the Dee, Cheshire will be free!"
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,693
    Gloucestershire Final: LDs one short of overall control.

    Lib Dem - 27 - +11
    Reform 11 - +11
    Green 9 - +5
    Conservative 6 - 20
    Labour 1 - -3
    Independent 1 - -1
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,267
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    I think we could be seeing 700 + Reform councillors.

    Which means we'll probably get 437 different stories of lunacy and shenanigans over the next 4 years.

    Not sure this sort of profile will help them.

    Unless no-one really gives a crap about performance anymore, and it's just a pissing contest.
    As has been pointed out, they will simply blame national government, and say we need overall power

    And it has a good chance of succeeding. Many other insurgent parties have done this to great effect - eg the SNP
    That doesn't always work 100%.

    Take Richmond-Upon-Thames in the 1980s. It was the Alliance's best prospect. They won 48 of 50 seats on the Council. And then they allowed themselves to be conned by a developer, the ice rink got closed (converted to flats), and the developer never delivered the promised new ice rink.

    Result: the LibDems got massacred on the council, while in the rest of the country they were making massive progress, and their best parliamentary seat prospect diminished significantly, until the Torypocalypse of 1997.

    So, sure, you can be insulated to some extent. But some things cut through.
    Well yes, but this shift to Reform feels much more significant than the SDP or Alliance in the 80s. Because it is just one part of a huge secular shift to the popular/hard right across the West. Britain is merely catchinfg up with France, Italy, the USA, Sweden, etc

    If Starmer wants Labour to survive and even win, there is a way. Copy what the Danish Social Democrats did, get extremely tough on immigration and the culture wars. Bulldoze ethnic ghettoes, severely restrict asylum. That is the only way for the modern Left to prosper, and it works - the Danish centre left does well, still

    But Starmer hasn't got the minerals for this, so he won't do it, so he will lose horribly in 2028
    The hard right hasn't always won though, see the recent Canadian and French elections and as you say Denmark
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,693
    MattW said:

    tlg86 said:

    Striking result from Minchinghampton, south of Cheltenham:

    Minchinhampton held by Greens

    Bella Amory Conservative 444

    Adam Giles Crispin Cain Liberal Democrats 131

    David James Carter Labour 236

    John Lee Marsden Reform UK 622

    Chloe Isobel Turner Green Party 2199


    If you have ever been there you may have noted the resemblance it bears to Middle Earth.

    Christ, look at house prices there:

    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/160214750#/?channel=RES_BUY
    Bit of an outlier you have there.

    That's 4x the size of the UK median house.

    Compared to my house in Ashfield, that's £3000 vs £2100 £/sqm.
    Looks ideal for conversion to an asylum hotel.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,873

    It's complicated, but if I had to identify one single thing behind the Reform surge it would be asylum seekers in hotels. There's enough outrage about this to add quite a few percent to the Reform vote everywhere as, rightly or wrongly (probably the latter), people think they could solve it.

    Yes, housing asylum seekers/illegal immigrants in 4* hotels, giving them NHS queue jumps, free money is all causing a huge number of votes to go for Reform. The drum beat of ridiculous judgements on deporting foreign criminals has also been a huge driver as well. I think people probably feel as though voting in a tough as nails socially conservative reform government which will likely start sinking illegal immigrant boats in the channel is going to also start deporting illegals already here and end asylum seeking in the UK except for those we specifically invite such as Ukrainians and Hong Kongers.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,873
    TOPPING said:

    .

    TOPPING said:

    It's complicated, but if I had to identify one single thing behind the Reform surge it would be asylum seekers in hotels. There's enough outrage about this to add quite a few percent to the Reform vote everywhere as, rightly or wrongly (probably the latter), people think they could solve it.

    This ties in with the boats. Now, this election notwithstanding, where I think those who don't like foreigners are making their position known, the UK has consistently shown that it is happy to have immigrants, and plenty of them. What they don't like is being out of control, or freeloaders.

    The boats represent a tangible example of the government not being able to control its own borders, and hence why successive governments are so keen to stop them, despite the tiny numbers arriving in this way.

    Likewise, "asylum hotels" are seen as freeloading and jumping the queue. And every freeborn Englishman detests queue jumpers.
    The people in hotels would love to have jobs. That’s what they’re hoping for, to get asylum and to be allowed to get a job. The rules don’t let them have jobs. The system forces them not to do anything and the Tories then produced these very long proceeding times.
    Sure. Not the point. People (UK people) see them as freeloading and getting room service of coffee and pain au chocolat plus a spa treatment at the taxpayers' expense.
    And people who we don't want in the country in the first place. I think Labour needs to seriously consider closing the UK to new asylum applications and temporarily pause our members of whatever treaties is required to achieve this. If we're to avoid a Reform majority in 2029 we need a period of 4 years with no new asylum seekers and to deport all of the ones we do have as well as revoking visas for the low wage legal migrants and "students" that overstay and work illegally.

    They really, really need to get tough or watch as more and more people turn to Farage and we sleepwalk into a reform majority.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,270
    Sean_F said:

    I think we could be seeing 700 + Reform councillors.

    Probably nearer 650 max, unless there are surprises in the remaining results.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,565
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    .

    TOPPING said:

    It's complicated, but if I had to identify one single thing behind the Reform surge it would be asylum seekers in hotels. There's enough outrage about this to add quite a few percent to the Reform vote everywhere as, rightly or wrongly (probably the latter), people think they could solve it.

    This ties in with the boats. Now, this election notwithstanding, where I think those who don't like foreigners are making their position known, the UK has consistently shown that it is happy to have immigrants, and plenty of them. What they don't like is being out of control, or freeloaders.

    The boats represent a tangible example of the government not being able to control its own borders, and hence why successive governments are so keen to stop them, despite the tiny numbers arriving in this way.

    Likewise, "asylum hotels" are seen as freeloading and jumping the queue. And every freeborn Englishman detests queue jumpers.
    The people in hotels would love to have jobs. That’s what they’re hoping for, to get asylum and to be allowed to get a job. The rules don’t let them have jobs. The system forces them not to do anything and the Tories then produced these very long proceeding times.
    Sure. Not the point. People (UK people) see them as freeloading and getting room service of coffee and pain au chocolat plus a spa treatment at the taxpayers' expense.
    And people who we don't want in the country in the first place. I think Labour needs to seriously consider closing the UK to new asylum applications and temporarily pause our members of whatever treaties is required to achieve this. If we're to avoid a Reform majority in 2029 we need a period of 4 years with no new asylum seekers and to deport all of the ones we do have as well as revoking visas for the low wage legal migrants and "students" that overstay and work illegally.

    They really, really need to get tough or watch as more and more people turn to Farage and we sleepwalk into a reform majority.
    Why didn't the Tories do this?
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,462

    Luke Tryl
    @luketryl.bsky.social‬

    Look at that pincer movement in Devon, the Conservative's controlled this council before and are now being eaten by the Liberal Democrats to the centre and Reform to their 'right', what's the platform that wins them both back?

    In 5 or 10 years' time, people will probably be saying that whatever caused them to imitate the phoenix was always inevitable and foreseeable from the start.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,248
    edited May 2
    Given their starting position this is almost as bad for Labour than for the Tories. Both of them are losing almost exactly 70% of their seats.
    But the Tories started pretty close to a record high so they had a lot more to lose. To lose 70% from the abysmal performance Labour had the last time these seats were contested is spectacular.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,132

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Taz said:

    So far it looks like Reform performing to par or just above, Lib Dems performing well, Green a few gains, Labour as expected and the Tories getting an absolute dicking.

    I would say Reform is doing extremely well, the LibDems quite well, Greens are falling slightly short, and both Labour and Conservatives are being hammered.
    Yes, your analysis is right and Taz is uncharacteristically wrong. This is an outstanding performance by Reform, and both Labour and the Tories are being marmalised, arguably Labour is doing even WORSE
    No, Labour is doing better than the Tories (and Reform, while having an excellent round, isn't quite outstanding for the same reason).

    And that reason is three mayoralities that tipped red on a knife-edge: Doncaster, North Tyne and West of England. They could easily have all been Reform gains.

    For practical purposes, it doesn't matter hugely in the big picture (though three extra mayors would have given Reform a wider set of media heads to use) but the bottom line is results and while Reform's councillor results are indeed outstanding, the night could easily have been better still for them in the higher-profile races.
    The question though is why Reform fell short, and very nearly add the Westminster Seat gain to the list of Reform failure too. Is it evidence of a glass ceiling because they bring out coalitions against them and their policies?

    One thing to check would be if Reform failed where the turnouts were high, looked good where turnouts were low, as “coalition of the willing to stop them” didn’t feel much pressure to vote in this event?
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