Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

A reminder that getting out the vote is crucial – politicalbetting.com

1567810

Comments

  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,371
    viewcode said:

    Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Mayoral election, 2025

    Con win. The margin is 5%. Polls had them with a 7-10% lead in that mayorality. They are underperforming their polls, even from a low base.

    Details from BBC

    • Conservative, Paul Bristow 60,243 28.4%
    • Reform UK, Ryan Coogan 49,647 23.4%
    • Labour, Anna Smith 42,671 20.1%
    • Liberal Democrat, Lorna Dupré 41,611 19.6%
    • Green, Bob Ensch, 18,255 8.6%
    Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2025/england/mayors/E47000008
    The Tories finally get their little consolation prize to cling onto.

    Badenoch will be en route to Peterborough, I expect…
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,095
    "The Conservative leader of Kent County Council has described his party's situation at the local elections as "apocalyptic".

    Roger Gough said he was not sure he would hang on to his own seat at Sevenoaks and Darent Valley North.

    It comes as the results have started to be declared in Kent with the Conservatives losing 13 of the first 15 seats, 12 of which were won by Reform UK.

    All 72 electoral divisions across the county are up for election - equating to 81 councillors in total"

    - BBC Live


    Just sit back and bask in that. Hahahahahah
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,570
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Reform now well ahead on council seats declared with Labour only fifth.

    Reform 335, Conservatives 121, LDs 112, Independent 38, Labour 29, Greens 27

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c39jedewxp8t

    This is an astounding performance by Reform. Seismic changes

    Remember they are starting, essentially, from zero

    It's like winning a 200m sprint where everyone else is already running but you have to crouch, wait, on your marks, Go
    Labour have won 31 seats out of 720 declared so far.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,811

    .

    TOPPING said:

    It's complicated, but if I had to identify one single thing behind the Reform surge it would be asylum seekers in hotels. There's enough outrage about this to add quite a few percent to the Reform vote everywhere as, rightly or wrongly (probably the latter), people think they could solve it.

    This ties in with the boats. Now, this election notwithstanding, where I think those who don't like foreigners are making their position known, the UK has consistently shown that it is happy to have immigrants, and plenty of them. What they don't like is being out of control, or freeloaders.

    The boats represent a tangible example of the government not being able to control its own borders, and hence why successive governments are so keen to stop them, despite the tiny numbers arriving in this way.

    Likewise, "asylum hotels" are seen as freeloading and jumping the queue. And every freeborn Englishman detests queue jumpers.
    The people in hotels would love to have jobs. That’s what they’re hoping for, to get asylum and to be allowed to get a job. The rules don’t let them have jobs. The system forces them not to do anything and the Tories then produced these very long proceeding times.
    Sure. Not the point. People (UK people) see them as freeloading and getting room service of coffee and pain au chocolat plus a spa treatment at the taxpayers' expense.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,811
    Leon said:

    Am I right that Reform now look likely to exceed their highest expectation, in councils and councillors?

    What were their highest expectations.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,095
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Am I right that Reform now look likely to exceed their highest expectation, in councils and councillors?

    What were their highest expectations.
    I'm genuinely not sure, hence the question!

    But IIRC something around 600 councillors was seen as a great outcome for them? And with so many yet to count, they could go over that?

    However I am, to put it mildly, not an expert on English local politics, hence my question to PBers who will know far better

    On the other hand, Reform have slightly underperformed in mayoralties. But I don't think they will be worried by that
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,132
    viewcode said:

    Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Mayoral election, 2025

    Con win. The margin is 5%. Polls had them with a 7-10% lead in that mayorality. They are underperforming their polls, even from a low base.

    Details from BBC

    • Conservative, Paul Bristow 60,243 28.4%
    • Reform UK, Ryan Coogan 49,647 23.4%
    • Labour, Anna Smith 42,671 20.1%
    • Liberal Democrat, Lorna Dupré 41,611 19.6%
    • Green, Bob Ensch, 18,255 8.6%
    Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2025/england/mayors/E47000008
    Either Labour or Reform would be celebrating instead, if they had an alliance between them. And why not, Ref and Labour voters are as one on left wing economics, makes the two voter bases much closer to each other than Conservatism and Populist ideology can ever be.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,441
    Pulpstar said:

    The Greens are 1 behind Labour. The Lib Dems are 6 behind the Tories.

    Lib Dems are neck and neck with the Tories, Looking like the Greens will overtake Labour.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,360
    Andy_JS said:

    "Children rescued from four-year Covid lockdown in ‘horror house’
    German parents arrested after discovery at home in Oviedo, Spain" (£)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/05/01/children-rescued-from-four-year-covid-lockdown-horror-house/

    The pandemic broke out in early 2020 and is widely suspected to have originated from a biological laboratory in Wuhan, China.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/05/01/children-rescued-from-four-year-covid-lockdown-horror-house/ (£££)

    Now look what you've done.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,267
    edited May 2
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Reform now well ahead on council seats declared with Labour only fifth.

    Reform 335, Conservatives 121, LDs 112, Independent 38, Labour 29, Greens 27

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c39jedewxp8t

    This is an astounding performance by Reform. Seismic changes

    Remember they are starting, essentially, from zero

    It's like winning a 200m sprint where everyone else is already running but you have to crouch, wait, on your marks, Go
    For now but these were provincial England elections only where Reform would be expected to do best, no doubt a very good day for Farage nonetheless with the Runcorn by election win on top.

    However Farage haters of whichever of the main parties will now be looking to tactically vote for whichever party is best placed to beat Reform in their ward or constituency in elections to come up to and including the next GE
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,974
    edited May 2
    If you group the independents then Labour are currently vying for fifth place with the Greens in declared councillors.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,844
    Andy_JS said:

    Harry has lost his court case over security.

    😂😂😂😂
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,426
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Am I right that Reform now look likely to exceed their highest expectation, in councils and councillors?

    What were their highest expectations.
    I'm genuinely not sure, hence the question!

    But IIRC something around 600 councillors was seen as a great outcome for them? And with so many yet to count, they could go over that?

    However I am, to put it mildly, not an expert on English local politics, hence my question to PBers who will know far better

    On the other hand, Reform have slightly underperformed in mayoralties. But I don't think they will be worried by that
    I don't think the number of votes cast nor the percentages for Reform bear that out. They did unexpectedly well in WOE and North Tyneside, for example. Happy to be contradicted if wrong.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,539
    Catercalysmic!!!!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,095

    Andy_JS said:

    "Children rescued from four-year Covid lockdown in ‘horror house’
    German parents arrested after discovery at home in Oviedo, Spain" (£)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/05/01/children-rescued-from-four-year-covid-lockdown-horror-house/

    The pandemic broke out in early 2020 and is widely suspected to have originated from a biological laboratory in Wuhan, China.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/05/01/children-rescued-from-four-year-covid-lockdown-horror-house/ (£££)

    Now look what you've done.
    It's not disputed by anyone serious any more. It came from the lab
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,272
    Leon said:

    "The Conservative leader of Kent County Council has described his party's situation at the local elections as "apocalyptic".

    Roger Gough said he was not sure he would hang on to his own seat at Sevenoaks and Darent Valley North.

    It comes as the results have started to be declared in Kent with the Conservatives losing 13 of the first 15 seats, 12 of which were won by Reform UK.

    All 72 electoral divisions across the county are up for election - equating to 81 councillors in total"

    - BBC Live


    Just sit back and bask in that. Hahahahahah

    He’s been my mothers county councillor for twenty years.

    The Tories haven’t won a single seat in Kent, yet
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,570
    edited May 2
    Kent results so far

    Gravesham Rural: RefUK
    Maidstone SE: RefUK
    Cheriton: LD
    Maidstone S: RefUK
    Folkeston E: RefUK
    Gravesend E: RefUK
    Hythe W: RefUK
    Folkestone W: RefUK
    Eltham Valley: RefUK
    Maidstone Rural S: RefUK
    Canterbury City N: Lab
    Romney Marsh: RefUK
    Margate: RefUK
    Canterbury N: LD
    Maidstone NE: LD
    Sittingbourne N: RefUK
    Tunbridge Wells N: LD
    Tunbridge Wells E: LD
    Swale E: Green
    Canterbury City S: Lab
    Tunbridge Wells S: LD
    Maidstone Rural N: RefUK
    Dartford E: RefUK
    Dover W: RefUK
    Dartford NE: RefUK
    Dartford Rural: RefUK
    Maidstone Rural W: RefUK
    Dartford W: RefUK
    Dartford Rural: RefUK
    Dartford W: RefUK
    Canterbury S: LD
    Sittingbourne S: RefUK
    Swanscombe: RefUK
    Dover N: RefUK
    Tunbridge Wells Rural: LD
    Cliftonville: RefUK
    Wilmington: RefUK
    Swale W: RefUK
    Sandwich: RefUK

    https://x.com/Kent_cc

    28 out of 39 RefUK.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,132

    MattW said:

    KnightOut said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Most Ref voters want left-wing economic policies, of the sort Callaghan was in favour of in the late 70s.

    That's probably the dictionary definition of 'far right' these days...
    In the USA, that's some way beyond far left !
    Okay then, proper serious question. All the other G7 countries can supply us with this oh so important ”virgin steel” we can only supply ourselves by Nationalising. How do the other G7 countries manage it without nationalisation?
    Bump. All those who said Nationalisation a great idea, need to answer this.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,630
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Am I right that Reform now look likely to exceed their highest expectation, in councils and councillors?

    What were their highest expectations.
    I'm genuinely not sure, hence the question!

    But IIRC something around 600 councillors was seen as a great outcome for them? And with so many yet to count, they could go over that?

    However I am, to put it mildly, not an expert on English local politics, hence my question to PBers who will know far better

    On the other hand, Reform have slightly underperformed in mayoralties. But I don't think they will be worried by that
    Politics UK had them on 522 seats. 700 seems more likely.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,272
    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    I think we might get a couple of CON-REF MP defections in the coming weeks.

    What practical difference does it make if RefUK go to say 12 MPs, or 25MPs, from the current 5 (since this morning)?
    Potentially huge. If there were more than one or two individual defections then Reform credibility increases and at the same time Tory credibility, already in tatters, decreases. The point comes when for more and more Tory MPs the only career future in politics is by defecting. Once started it is self reinforcing.

    Such a point could be when you have been smashed in an election and you are starting to be below 20% in the polls, your leader isn't very effective and is failing to lead the counter offensive after a rout. That's today.

    The Tories, unlike Labour, cannot position themselves as the binary opposition to Reform. Labour can, which is why Labour's problem, while real, has a possible solution. (Competence, luck, delivery, centre left). If the Tories have a solution, it is not clear what it can be.
    It also puts the LibDems closer to official opposition status….
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,910

    .

    TOPPING said:

    It's complicated, but if I had to identify one single thing behind the Reform surge it would be asylum seekers in hotels. There's enough outrage about this to add quite a few percent to the Reform vote everywhere as, rightly or wrongly (probably the latter), people think they could solve it.

    This ties in with the boats. Now, this election notwithstanding, where I think those who don't like foreigners are making their position known, the UK has consistently shown that it is happy to have immigrants, and plenty of them. What they don't like is being out of control, or freeloaders.

    The boats represent a tangible example of the government not being able to control its own borders, and hence why successive governments are so keen to stop them, despite the tiny numbers arriving in this way.

    Likewise, "asylum hotels" are seen as freeloading and jumping the queue. And every freeborn Englishman detests queue jumpers.
    The people in hotels would love to have jobs. That’s what they’re hoping for, to get asylum and to be allowed to get a job. The rules don’t let them have jobs. The system forces them not to do anything and the Tories then produced these very long proceeding times.
    *processing
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,630
    Andy_JS said:

    Kent results so far

    Gravesham Rural: RefUK
    Maidstone SE: RefUK
    Cheriton: LD
    Maidstone S: RefUK
    Folkeston E: RefUK
    Gravesend E: RefUK
    Hythe W: RefUK
    Folkestone W: RefUK
    Eltham Valley: RefUK
    Maidstone Rural S: RefUK
    Canterbury City N: Lab
    Romney Marsh: RefUK
    Margate: RefUK
    Canterbury N: LD
    Maidstone NE: LD
    Sittingbourne N: RefUK
    Tunbridge Wells N: LD
    Tunbridge Wells E: LD
    Swale E: Green
    Canterbury City S: Lab
    Tunbridge Wells S: LD
    Maidstone Rural N: RefUK
    Dartford E: RefUK
    Dover W: RefUK
    Dartford NE: RefUK
    Dartford Rural: RefUK
    Maidstone Rural W: RefUK
    Dartford W: RefUK
    Dartford Rural: RefUK
    Dartford W: RefUK
    Canterbury S: LD
    Sittingbourne S: RefUK
    Swanscombe: RefUK
    Dover N: RefUK
    Tunbridge Wells Rural: LD
    Cliftonville: RefUK
    Wilmington: RefUK
    Swale W: RefUK
    Sandwich: RefUK

    https://x.com/Kent_cc

    Reform gain.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,166
    Lib Dems now overtake the Conservatives in councillors - 135 to 134.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,910
    HYUFD said:

    Reform now well ahead on council seats declared with Labour only fifth.

    Reform 335, Conservatives 121, LDs 112, Independent 38, Labour 29, Greens 27

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c39jedewxp8t

    LibDems second and Labour at risk of falling to sixth. The "big two" parties are out of the top two.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,693
    Striking result from Minchinghampton, south of Cheltenham:

    Minchinhampton held by Greens

    Bella Amory Conservative 444

    Adam Giles Crispin Cain Liberal Democrats 131

    David James Carter Labour 236

    John Lee Marsden Reform UK 622

    Chloe Isobel Turner Green Party 2199


    If you have ever been there you may have noted the resemblance it bears to Middle Earth.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,773

    viewcode said:

    Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Mayoral election, 2025

    Con win. The margin is 5%. Polls had them with a 7-10% lead in that mayorality. They are underperforming their polls, even from a low base.

    Details from BBC

    • Conservative, Paul Bristow 60,243 28.4%
    • Reform UK, Ryan Coogan 49,647 23.4%
    • Labour, Anna Smith 42,671 20.1%
    • Liberal Democrat, Lorna Dupré 41,611 19.6%
    • Green, Bob Ensch, 18,255 8.6%
    Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2025/england/mayors/E47000008
    The Tories finally get their little consolation prize to cling onto.

    Badenoch will be en route to Peterborough, I expect…
    A break of journey on her way to the back benches.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,272
    edited May 2
    Andy_JS said:

    Kent results so far

    Gravesham Rural: RefUK
    Maidstone SE: RefUK
    Cheriton: LD
    Maidstone S: RefUK
    Folkeston E: RefUK
    Gravesend E: RefUK
    Hythe W: RefUK
    Folkestone W: RefUK
    Eltham Valley: RefUK
    Maidstone Rural S: RefUK
    Canterbury City N: Lab
    Romney Marsh: RefUK
    Margate: RefUK
    Canterbury N: LD
    Maidstone NE: LD
    Sittingbourne N: RefUK
    Tunbridge Wells N: LD
    Tunbridge Wells E: LD
    Swale E: Green
    Canterbury City S: Lab
    Tunbridge Wells S: LD
    Maidstone Rural N: RefUK
    Dartford E: RefUK
    Dover W: RefUK
    Dartford NE: RefUK
    Dartford Rural: RefUK
    Maidstone Rural W: RefUK
    Dartford W: RefUK
    Dartford Rural: RefUK
    Dartford W: RefUK
    Canterbury S: LD
    Sittingbourne S: RefUK
    Swanscombe: RefUK
    Dover N: RefUK
    Tunbridge Wells Rural: LD
    Cliftonville: RefUK
    Wilmington: RefUK
    Swale W: RefUK
    Sandwich: RefUK

    https://x.com/Kent_cc

    28 out of 39 RefUK.

    The Tories just won their first seat, in posh Cranbrook to the west of Tunbridge Wells

    FPTP is punishing the Tories bigly in these elections, as ultimate karma
  • ManOfGwentManOfGwent Posts: 158
    edited May 2
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Am I right that Reform now look likely to exceed their highest expectation, in councils and councillors?

    I thought Reform would come first: they're leading in the national polls, they had a favorable (i.e. Brexity) set of elections this year, and they stood in almost every ward.

    However, the extent of their victory is really quite something. They have absolutely swept the board. They're not going to be running a few councils - they're going to be running lots.

    Labour have been destroyed - they could end up trailing Independents and the Greens. The Conservatives have done little better: they've lost three quarters of seats, and could end up below the Liberal Democrats. The LibDems have done OK - they've markedly increased their representation, and might well be second in terms of number of Councillors. While the Greens have increased their number of Councillors, they're stuck well below the number of Independents.

    So, yes, the story is Reform.

    Which is great for Reform, but also brings with it a challenge. Running councils is a thankless job, because of the number of things you are legally required to spend money on. It's also highly likely that most of the elected representatives won't know much about how councils are run.

    Let's see how they do.
    They will do what Labour in Wales have done for the last 25 years. Blame central government for any failures. Remarkably successful tactic.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,438
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Am I right that Reform now look likely to exceed their highest expectation, in councils and councillors?

    What were their highest expectations.
    I'm genuinely not sure, hence the question!

    But IIRC something around 600 councillors was seen as a great outcome for them? And with so many yet to count, they could go over that?

    However I am, to put it mildly, not an expert on English local politics, hence my question to PBers who will know far better

    On the other hand, Reform have slightly underperformed in mayoralties. But I don't think they will be worried by that
    Between +311 and +697, depending.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,910
    MattW said:

    I think we might get a couple of CON-REF MP defections in the coming weeks.

    What practical difference does it make if RefUK go to say 12 MPs, or 25MPs, from the current 5 (since this morning)?
    A few places on select committees.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,648
    Wes Streeting coming in for criticism here. Tbh, I think he might be right to allocate the money but not ring-fence so local boards can make their own prioritization decisions.
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwynqx77dn5o
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,923
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Reform now well ahead on council seats declared with Labour only fifth.

    Reform 335, Conservatives 121, LDs 112, Independent 38, Labour 29, Greens 27

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c39jedewxp8t

    This is an astounding performance by Reform. Seismic changes

    Remember they are starting, essentially, from zero

    It's like winning a 200m sprint where everyone else is already running but you have to crouch, wait, on your marks, Go
    For now but these were provincial England elections only where Reform would be expected to do best, no doubt a very good day for Farage nonetheless with the Runcorn by election win on top.

    However Farage haters of whichever of the main parties will now be looking to tactically vote for whichever party is best placed to beat Reform in their ward or constituency in elections to come up to and including the next GE
    The potrntial number of tactical voters of any sort is much smaller than we well-informed denizens of internet fora often imagine.
    And the potential number of Con voters who will vote Lab to keep out Ref is tiny.
    And the potential number of Lab voters who will vote Con to keep out Ref is infinitessimal.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,910

    .

    TOPPING said:

    It's complicated, but if I had to identify one single thing behind the Reform surge it would be asylum seekers in hotels. There's enough outrage about this to add quite a few percent to the Reform vote everywhere as, rightly or wrongly (probably the latter), people think they could solve it.

    This ties in with the boats. Now, this election notwithstanding, where I think those who don't like foreigners are making their position known, the UK has consistently shown that it is happy to have immigrants, and plenty of them. What they don't like is being out of control, or freeloaders.

    The boats represent a tangible example of the government not being able to control its own borders, and hence why successive governments are so keen to stop them, despite the tiny numbers arriving in this way.

    Likewise, "asylum hotels" are seen as freeloading and jumping the queue. And every freeborn Englishman detests queue jumpers.
    The people in hotels would love to have jobs. That’s what they’re hoping for, to get asylum and to be allowed to get a job. The rules don’t let them have jobs. The system forces them not to do anything and the Tories then produced these very long proceeding times.
    Do you not see how allowing asylum seekers to work would be abused? It would also undermine the visa system and is against the interests of local workers.
    I'm not saying it's a good idea to allow asylum seekers to work. I'm saying that calling them freeloaders is inaccurate. What would be good is to process applications as quickly as possible, to deport those we should deport quickly and to admit those we want to admit quickly so they can stop freeloading and start contributing.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,272
    edited May 2
    In the Cambs CC elections, the LDs now have the entire south of the county, outside the city itself. None of the city wards have yet declared, but hopefully Labour will get a drubbing
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,693
    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Am I right that Reform now look likely to exceed their highest expectation, in councils and councillors?

    What were their highest expectations.
    I'm genuinely not sure, hence the question!

    But IIRC something around 600 councillors was seen as a great outcome for them? And with so many yet to count, they could go over that?

    However I am, to put it mildly, not an expert on English local politics, hence my question to PBers who will know far better

    On the other hand, Reform have slightly underperformed in mayoralties. But I don't think they will be worried by that
    Politics UK had them on 522 seats. 700 seems more likely.
    I had 700 as the benchmark figure, but always difficult to assess council elections. It's clearly a storming success nevertheless.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,570

    I think we might get a couple of CON-REF MP defections in the coming weeks.

    Chris Chope and John Hayes would be obvious candidates.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,095
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Am I right that Reform now look likely to exceed their highest expectation, in councils and councillors?

    I thought Reform would come first: they're leading in the national polls, they had a favorable (i.e. Brexity) set of elections this year, and they stood in almost every ward.

    However, the extent of their victory is really quite something. They have absolutely swept the board. They're not going to be running a few councils - they're going to be running lots.

    Labour have been destroyed - they could end up trailing Independents and the Greens. The Conservatives have done little better: they've lost three quarters of seats, and could end up below the Liberal Democrats. The LibDems have done OK - they've markedly increased their representation, and might well be second in terms of number of Councillors. While the Greens have increased their number of Councillors, they're stuck well below the number of Independents.

    So, yes, the story is Reform.

    Which is great for Reform, but also brings with it a challenge. Running councils is a thankless job, because of the number of things you are legally required to spend money on. It's also highly likely that most of the elected representatives won't know much about how councils are run.

    Let's see how they do.
    Yes, "ruling" might be a challenge, especially at local level

    However this did not stop Le Pen's RN from rising to the top. Indeed, this is exactly the path the RN followed: win locally, then get lots of MPs, then finally say: look, to do the overall job, we need to be the government; and until Le Pen got legally nobbled, it was all going right for them (and might still do)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,974
    rcs1000 said:

    Which is great for Reform, but also brings with it a challenge. Running councils is a thankless job, because of the number of things you are legally required to spend money on. It's also highly likely that most of the elected representatives won't know much about how councils are run.

    Which is potentially a great position to be in for a party seeking national power to Reform the country. They will have endless examples to draw on of dysfunctional outcomes caused by statutory obligations imposed on local government.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,910
    TOPPING said:

    .

    TOPPING said:

    It's complicated, but if I had to identify one single thing behind the Reform surge it would be asylum seekers in hotels. There's enough outrage about this to add quite a few percent to the Reform vote everywhere as, rightly or wrongly (probably the latter), people think they could solve it.

    This ties in with the boats. Now, this election notwithstanding, where I think those who don't like foreigners are making their position known, the UK has consistently shown that it is happy to have immigrants, and plenty of them. What they don't like is being out of control, or freeloaders.

    The boats represent a tangible example of the government not being able to control its own borders, and hence why successive governments are so keen to stop them, despite the tiny numbers arriving in this way.

    Likewise, "asylum hotels" are seen as freeloading and jumping the queue. And every freeborn Englishman detests queue jumpers.
    The people in hotels would love to have jobs. That’s what they’re hoping for, to get asylum and to be allowed to get a job. The rules don’t let them have jobs. The system forces them not to do anything and the Tories then produced these very long proceeding times.
    Sure. Not the point. People (UK people) see them as freeloading and getting room service of coffee and pain au chocolat plus a spa treatment at the taxpayers' expense.
    Wouldn't it be a good thing if UK people were better informed as to reality?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,693
    IanB2 said:

    In the Cambs CC elections, the LDs now have the entire south of the county, outside the city itself.

    You mean Hyufd and his Essex Fusiliers can't break through?
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,116
    IanB2 said:

    Anyhow, there's no election fever up here where we are today



    The view over Arthur's Seat is even better IMO. I used to pass that way every day on the way to work.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,570
    The Tories have finally managed to win a seat on Kent council in Cranbrook by 17 votes over RefUK.

    https://democracy.kent.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=712&RPID=278405173
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,862
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Am I right that Reform now look likely to exceed their highest expectation, in councils and councillors?

    What were their highest expectations.
    I'm genuinely not sure, hence the question!

    But IIRC something around 600 councillors was seen as a great outcome for them? And with so many yet to count, they could go over that?

    However I am, to put it mildly, not an expert on English local politics, hence my question to PBers who will know far better

    On the other hand, Reform have slightly underperformed in mayoralties. But I don't think they will be worried by that
    The highest forecast I have seen was +697, from Electoral Calculus.

    https://www.markpack.org.uk/174615/local-election-predictions/

    It will be easy to get the delta mixed up with the total including seats not in the election. They have iirc 100+ in seats not up today. There is also an overlap.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,948
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Reform now well ahead on council seats declared with Labour only fifth.

    Reform 335, Conservatives 121, LDs 112, Independent 38, Labour 29, Greens 27

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c39jedewxp8t

    This is an astounding performance by Reform. Seismic changes

    Remember they are starting, essentially, from zero

    It's like winning a 200m sprint where everyone else is already running but you have to crouch, wait, on your marks, Go
    Labour have won 31 seats out of 720 declared so far.
    It would be interesting to see a matrix showing which parties seats have changed between, rather than just totals for each party.

    For example, is the proportion of ex-Tory seats won by Reform different from the proportion of ex-Labour seats.

    Does anyone know whether that kind of data is available?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,923

    viewcode said:

    Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Mayoral election, 2025

    Con win. The margin is 5%. Polls had them with a 7-10% lead in that mayorality. They are underperforming their polls, even from a low base.

    Details from BBC

    • Conservative, Paul Bristow 60,243 28.4%
    • Reform UK, Ryan Coogan 49,647 23.4%
    • Labour, Anna Smith 42,671 20.1%
    • Liberal Democrat, Lorna Dupré 41,611 19.6%
    • Green, Bob Ensch, 18,255 8.6%
    Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2025/england/mayors/E47000008
    Either Labour or Reform would be celebrating instead, if they had an alliance between them. And why not, Ref and Labour voters are as one on left wing economics, makes the two voter bases much closer to each other than Conservatism and Populist ideology can ever be.
    I don't know if you are teasing or not. If you are, you make a very good point parodying those who would happily add in another party's vote totals to their own and reach conclusions based on that. If you are not, you make an equally good point; @Stuartinromford (I think) posted some research this morning about what Ref voters appear to want; and what they appear to want is Dr. David Owen.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,974

    .

    TOPPING said:

    It's complicated, but if I had to identify one single thing behind the Reform surge it would be asylum seekers in hotels. There's enough outrage about this to add quite a few percent to the Reform vote everywhere as, rightly or wrongly (probably the latter), people think they could solve it.

    This ties in with the boats. Now, this election notwithstanding, where I think those who don't like foreigners are making their position known, the UK has consistently shown that it is happy to have immigrants, and plenty of them. What they don't like is being out of control, or freeloaders.

    The boats represent a tangible example of the government not being able to control its own borders, and hence why successive governments are so keen to stop them, despite the tiny numbers arriving in this way.

    Likewise, "asylum hotels" are seen as freeloading and jumping the queue. And every freeborn Englishman detests queue jumpers.
    The people in hotels would love to have jobs. That’s what they’re hoping for, to get asylum and to be allowed to get a job. The rules don’t let them have jobs. The system forces them not to do anything and the Tories then produced these very long proceeding times.
    Do you not see how allowing asylum seekers to work would be abused? It would also undermine the visa system and is against the interests of local workers.
    I'm not saying it's a good idea to allow asylum seekers to work. I'm saying that calling them freeloaders is inaccurate. What would be good is to process applications as quickly as possible, to deport those we should deport quickly and to admit those we want to admit quickly so they can stop freeloading and start contributing.
    Contributing to holding down wages and competing for housing... Giving Deliveroo an even more plentiful supply of migrant workers might be in their interests but it's not in the national interest.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,095
    It is with a heavy heart that I have to tell PB that yes, the worst rumours are true

    Mebyon Kernow, the "Sons of Cornwall", have lost a councillor
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,371

    rcs1000 said:

    Which is great for Reform, but also brings with it a challenge. Running councils is a thankless job, because of the number of things you are legally required to spend money on. It's also highly likely that most of the elected representatives won't know much about how councils are run.

    Which is potentially a great position to be in for a party seeking national power to Reform the country. They will have endless examples to draw on of dysfunctional outcomes caused by statutory obligations imposed on local government.
    That’s certainly the angle they’ll be going for. A bit like the 2019 Tory gambit “we’re being stopped from doing what we want, so you need to give us power to let us do it.”
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,272

    Striking result from Minchinghampton, south of Cheltenham:

    Minchinhampton held by Greens

    Bella Amory Conservative 444

    Adam Giles Crispin Cain Liberal Democrats 131

    David James Carter Labour 236

    John Lee Marsden Reform UK 622

    Chloe Isobel Turner Green Party 2199


    If you have ever been there you may have noted the resemblance it bears to Middle Earth.

    Their invisibility ring is certainly working.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,570
    Tories went into the election with 62 out of 81 councillors in Kent. They currently have 1 out of about 40.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,426

    MattW said:

    KnightOut said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Most Ref voters want left-wing economic policies, of the sort Callaghan was in favour of in the late 70s.

    That's probably the dictionary definition of 'far right' these days...
    In the USA, that's some way beyond far left !
    Okay then, proper serious question. All the other G7 countries can supply us with this oh so important ”virgin steel” we can only supply ourselves by Nationalising. How do the other G7 countries manage it without nationalisation?
    Bump. All those who said Nationalisation a great idea, need to answer this.
    They never let their steel industry deteriorate to the point that it was all foreign owned? I don't know if that's a true answer, but I'm sure somebody will contradict me if wrong.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,923

    .

    TOPPING said:

    It's complicated, but if I had to identify one single thing behind the Reform surge it would be asylum seekers in hotels. There's enough outrage about this to add quite a few percent to the Reform vote everywhere as, rightly or wrongly (probably the latter), people think they could solve it.

    This ties in with the boats. Now, this election notwithstanding, where I think those who don't like foreigners are making their position known, the UK has consistently shown that it is happy to have immigrants, and plenty of them. What they don't like is being out of control, or freeloaders.

    The boats represent a tangible example of the government not being able to control its own borders, and hence why successive governments are so keen to stop them, despite the tiny numbers arriving in this way.

    Likewise, "asylum hotels" are seen as freeloading and jumping the queue. And every freeborn Englishman detests queue jumpers.
    The people in hotels would love to have jobs. That’s what they’re hoping for, to get asylum and to be allowed to get a job. The rules don’t let them have jobs. The system forces them not to do anything and the Tories then produced these very long proceeding times.
    Do you not see how allowing asylum seekers to work would be abused? It would also undermine the visa system and is against the interests of local workers.
    I'm not saying it's a good idea to allow asylum seekers to work. I'm saying that calling them freeloaders is inaccurate. What would be good is to process applications as quickly as possible, to deport those we should deport quickly and to admit those we want to admit quickly so they can stop freeloading and start contributing.
    Contributing to holding down wages and competing for housing... Giving Deliveroo an even more plentiful supply of migrant workers might be in their interests but it's not in the national interest.
    On a related note, I've just come back from Sale town centre to find a small tent encampment has been set up by MEANA men who are apparently asylum seekers who have been granted leave to remain. I don't know whether the same things are features of other small provincial towns and suburbs, but I'd suggest it hasn't done Reform's chances any harm.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,961
    Moggy says that "Conservatism" is having a fantastic election...
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,441

    Striking result from Minchinghampton, south of Cheltenham:

    Minchinhampton held by Greens

    Bella Amory Conservative 444

    Adam Giles Crispin Cain Liberal Democrats 131

    David James Carter Labour 236

    John Lee Marsden Reform UK 622

    Chloe Isobel Turner Green Party 2199


    If you have ever been there you may have noted the resemblance it bears to Middle Earth.

    Looks like the Lib Dems will certainly have the administration, and if they take Bishops Cleeve and Winchcombe/Woodmancote as well as the two Tewkesbury seats, they may get a majority too.

    In Devon, as I predicted, they will be short by one
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,844
    So far it looks like Reform performing to par or just above, Lib Dems performing well, Green a few gains, Labour as expected and the Tories getting an absolute dicking.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,248
    edited May 2

    rcs1000 said:

    Which is great for Reform, but also brings with it a challenge. Running councils is a thankless job, because of the number of things you are legally required to spend money on. It's also highly likely that most of the elected representatives won't know much about how councils are run.

    Which is potentially a great position to be in for a party seeking national power to Reform the country. They will have endless examples to draw on of dysfunctional outcomes caused by statutory obligations imposed on local government.
    Those statutory obligations are little things like education, social work, bins collection and social care. Also child safeguarding - is that something Reform are going to complain about?!

    In fact, a lot of stuff that is "broken" about the UK is actually at the local level.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,910

    .

    TOPPING said:

    It's complicated, but if I had to identify one single thing behind the Reform surge it would be asylum seekers in hotels. There's enough outrage about this to add quite a few percent to the Reform vote everywhere as, rightly or wrongly (probably the latter), people think they could solve it.

    This ties in with the boats. Now, this election notwithstanding, where I think those who don't like foreigners are making their position known, the UK has consistently shown that it is happy to have immigrants, and plenty of them. What they don't like is being out of control, or freeloaders.

    The boats represent a tangible example of the government not being able to control its own borders, and hence why successive governments are so keen to stop them, despite the tiny numbers arriving in this way.

    Likewise, "asylum hotels" are seen as freeloading and jumping the queue. And every freeborn Englishman detests queue jumpers.
    The people in hotels would love to have jobs. That’s what they’re hoping for, to get asylum and to be allowed to get a job. The rules don’t let them have jobs. The system forces them not to do anything and the Tories then produced these very long proceeding times.
    Do you not see how allowing asylum seekers to work would be abused? It would also undermine the visa system and is against the interests of local workers.
    I'm not saying it's a good idea to allow asylum seekers to work. I'm saying that calling them freeloaders is inaccurate. What would be good is to process applications as quickly as possible, to deport those we should deport quickly and to admit those we want to admit quickly so they can stop freeloading and start contributing.
    Contributing to holding down wages and competing for housing... Giving Deliveroo an even more plentiful supply of migrant workers might be in their interests but it's not in the national interest.
    How is it more in the national interest to have someone you should be deporting sitting around in your country being paid for?

    How is it more in the national interest to have someone you should be admitting sitting around in your country being paid for when they could be contributing, paying tax and integrating into their new community?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,570

    I've stopped for a beer in Nay

    Nay is about thirteen miles from where I stayed last night in Gan

    Gan is about five miles from Pau

    They all have proper rugby clubs

    I bet there aren't three other rugby clubs with three letter town or city names within twenty miles of each other

    I bet nobody will ever bother to check this, or ever bother to point it out again

    This is south west France?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,910
    Cookie said:

    .

    TOPPING said:

    It's complicated, but if I had to identify one single thing behind the Reform surge it would be asylum seekers in hotels. There's enough outrage about this to add quite a few percent to the Reform vote everywhere as, rightly or wrongly (probably the latter), people think they could solve it.

    This ties in with the boats. Now, this election notwithstanding, where I think those who don't like foreigners are making their position known, the UK has consistently shown that it is happy to have immigrants, and plenty of them. What they don't like is being out of control, or freeloaders.

    The boats represent a tangible example of the government not being able to control its own borders, and hence why successive governments are so keen to stop them, despite the tiny numbers arriving in this way.

    Likewise, "asylum hotels" are seen as freeloading and jumping the queue. And every freeborn Englishman detests queue jumpers.
    The people in hotels would love to have jobs. That’s what they’re hoping for, to get asylum and to be allowed to get a job. The rules don’t let them have jobs. The system forces them not to do anything and the Tories then produced these very long proceeding times.
    Do you not see how allowing asylum seekers to work would be abused? It would also undermine the visa system and is against the interests of local workers.
    I'm not saying it's a good idea to allow asylum seekers to work. I'm saying that calling them freeloaders is inaccurate. What would be good is to process applications as quickly as possible, to deport those we should deport quickly and to admit those we want to admit quickly so they can stop freeloading and start contributing.
    Contributing to holding down wages and competing for housing... Giving Deliveroo an even more plentiful supply of migrant workers might be in their interests but it's not in the national interest.
    On a related note, I've just come back from Sale town centre to find a small tent encampment has been set up by MEANA men who are apparently asylum seekers who have been granted leave to remain. I don't know whether the same things are features of other small provincial towns and suburbs, but I'd suggest it hasn't done Reform's chances any harm.
    If they have been granted leave to remain, they are not asylum seekers. They have been given asylum. They are asylum gainers.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,630
    Cookie said:

    .

    TOPPING said:

    It's complicated, but if I had to identify one single thing behind the Reform surge it would be asylum seekers in hotels. There's enough outrage about this to add quite a few percent to the Reform vote everywhere as, rightly or wrongly (probably the latter), people think they could solve it.

    This ties in with the boats. Now, this election notwithstanding, where I think those who don't like foreigners are making their position known, the UK has consistently shown that it is happy to have immigrants, and plenty of them. What they don't like is being out of control, or freeloaders.

    The boats represent a tangible example of the government not being able to control its own borders, and hence why successive governments are so keen to stop them, despite the tiny numbers arriving in this way.

    Likewise, "asylum hotels" are seen as freeloading and jumping the queue. And every freeborn Englishman detests queue jumpers.
    The people in hotels would love to have jobs. That’s what they’re hoping for, to get asylum and to be allowed to get a job. The rules don’t let them have jobs. The system forces them not to do anything and the Tories then produced these very long proceeding times.
    Do you not see how allowing asylum seekers to work would be abused? It would also undermine the visa system and is against the interests of local workers.
    I'm not saying it's a good idea to allow asylum seekers to work. I'm saying that calling them freeloaders is inaccurate. What would be good is to process applications as quickly as possible, to deport those we should deport quickly and to admit those we want to admit quickly so they can stop freeloading and start contributing.
    Contributing to holding down wages and competing for housing... Giving Deliveroo an even more plentiful supply of migrant workers might be in their interests but it's not in the national interest.
    On a related note, I've just come back from Sale town centre to find a small tent encampment has been set up by MEANA men who are apparently asylum seekers who have been granted leave to remain. I don't know whether the same things are features of other small provincial towns and suburbs, but I'd suggest it hasn't done Reform's chances any harm.
    Many people on the “mainstream” right lost sight of the fact that it’s in their interests to have a large bourgoisie, in favour of making quick bucks, by driving down wages, and driving up property prices.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,267
    edited May 2
    Taz said:

    So far it looks like Reform performing to par or just above, Lib Dems performing well, Green a few gains, Labour as expected and the Tories getting an absolute dicking.

    Labour are currently an abysmal 5th on seats, Reform have won control of over half the councils declared which is birdie or even hole in one level for Farage not 'to par' and the LDs making a few gains in Remain areas like the Greens.

    Yes the Tories are doing dreadfully in terms of councils and seats lost but are still second behind Reform
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,095
    Cookie said:

    .

    TOPPING said:

    It's complicated, but if I had to identify one single thing behind the Reform surge it would be asylum seekers in hotels. There's enough outrage about this to add quite a few percent to the Reform vote everywhere as, rightly or wrongly (probably the latter), people think they could solve it.

    This ties in with the boats. Now, this election notwithstanding, where I think those who don't like foreigners are making their position known, the UK has consistently shown that it is happy to have immigrants, and plenty of them. What they don't like is being out of control, or freeloaders.

    The boats represent a tangible example of the government not being able to control its own borders, and hence why successive governments are so keen to stop them, despite the tiny numbers arriving in this way.

    Likewise, "asylum hotels" are seen as freeloading and jumping the queue. And every freeborn Englishman detests queue jumpers.
    The people in hotels would love to have jobs. That’s what they’re hoping for, to get asylum and to be allowed to get a job. The rules don’t let them have jobs. The system forces them not to do anything and the Tories then produced these very long proceeding times.
    Do you not see how allowing asylum seekers to work would be abused? It would also undermine the visa system and is against the interests of local workers.
    I'm not saying it's a good idea to allow asylum seekers to work. I'm saying that calling them freeloaders is inaccurate. What would be good is to process applications as quickly as possible, to deport those we should deport quickly and to admit those we want to admit quickly so they can stop freeloading and start contributing.
    Contributing to holding down wages and competing for housing... Giving Deliveroo an even more plentiful supply of migrant workers might be in their interests but it's not in the national interest.
    On a related note, I've just come back from Sale town centre to find a small tent encampment has been set up by MEANA men who are apparently asylum seekers who have been granted leave to remain. I don't know whether the same things are features of other small provincial towns and suburbs, but I'd suggest it hasn't done Reform's chances any harm.
    They are everywhere

    I met a friend yesterday for drinks, Tramadol and Gascake, and he told me of a recent visit to Bournemouth - a town he knows well, as he's from Dorset

    Bournemouth has always had a grungey side but he said it is now positively menacing for a mile or more, in the town centre. With asylum seekers - exactly as you describe - loitering eveywhere, apparently doing nothing

    They all have to go. Send them all home. Withdraw from the EHRC and cancel the general right to asylum, except for unique cases like Ukraine and HK. Enough

    We've got them in Camden too, but to be fair they probably make Camden Town, by the Tube, a bit nicer
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,116

    MattW said:

    KnightOut said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Most Ref voters want left-wing economic policies, of the sort Callaghan was in favour of in the late 70s.

    That's probably the dictionary definition of 'far right' these days...
    In the USA, that's some way beyond far left !
    Okay then, proper serious question. All the other G7 countries can supply us with this oh so important ”virgin steel” we can only supply ourselves by Nationalising. How do the other G7 countries manage it without nationalisation?
    UK producers face energy costs approximately 80-90% higher than Germany, the highest of these examples

  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,910
    Taz said:

    So far it looks like Reform performing to par or just above, Lib Dems performing well, Green a few gains, Labour as expected and the Tories getting an absolute dicking.

    Labour have lost a higher proportion of their councillors than the Conservatives have. They're getting an absolute dicking too.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,923

    .

    TOPPING said:

    It's complicated, but if I had to identify one single thing behind the Reform surge it would be asylum seekers in hotels. There's enough outrage about this to add quite a few percent to the Reform vote everywhere as, rightly or wrongly (probably the latter), people think they could solve it.

    This ties in with the boats. Now, this election notwithstanding, where I think those who don't like foreigners are making their position known, the UK has consistently shown that it is happy to have immigrants, and plenty of them. What they don't like is being out of control, or freeloaders.

    The boats represent a tangible example of the government not being able to control its own borders, and hence why successive governments are so keen to stop them, despite the tiny numbers arriving in this way.

    Likewise, "asylum hotels" are seen as freeloading and jumping the queue. And every freeborn Englishman detests queue jumpers.
    The people in hotels would love to have jobs. That’s what they’re hoping for, to get asylum and to be allowed to get a job. The rules don’t let them have jobs. The system forces them not to do anything and the Tories then produced these very long proceeding times.
    Do you not see how allowing asylum seekers to work would be abused? It would also undermine the visa system and is against the interests of local workers.
    I'm not saying it's a good idea to allow asylum seekers to work. I'm saying that calling them freeloaders is inaccurate. What would be good is to process applications as quickly as possible, to deport those we should deport quickly and to admit those we want to admit quickly so they can stop freeloading and start contributing.
    I think you and I probably have slightly differing views of immigration - but I cannot see anything in that post to disagree with.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,588
    Taz said:

    So far it looks like Reform performing to par or just above, Lib Dems performing well, Green a few gains, Labour as expected and the Tories getting an absolute dicking.

    I would say Reform is doing extremely well, the LibDems quite well, Greens are falling slightly short, and both Labour and Conservatives are being hammered.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,570
    Changes according to the Guardian (seems to be different to BBC and Sky)

    Ref +72
    Con -50
    Lab -14
    LD -1
    Oth -5

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,693
    Cicero said:

    Striking result from Minchinghampton, south of Cheltenham:

    Minchinhampton held by Greens

    Bella Amory Conservative 444

    Adam Giles Crispin Cain Liberal Democrats 131

    David James Carter Labour 236

    John Lee Marsden Reform UK 622

    Chloe Isobel Turner Green Party 2199


    If you have ever been there you may have noted the resemblance it bears to Middle Earth.

    Looks like the Lib Dems will certainly have the administration, and if they take Bishops Cleeve and Winchcombe/Woodmancote as well as the two Tewkesbury seats, they may get a majority too.

    In Devon, as I predicted, they will be short by one
    Well if they don't win Bishops Cleeve, Cicero, I will eat my yellow socks. They should also take Winchcombe, where I voted for them personally.

    Still think it's pushing it to win an 'overall' but with Green and sundry other support they shouldn't have difficulty governing (to the extent any Council is allowed to govern.)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,272
    edited May 2
    All the county divisions in South Cambs district are now declared; the LDs have won the lot, a few narrowly (gains from both Tory and Labour) but most with around half the vote.

    In East Cambs, one Tory has held on, and there’s one Reform gain. The rest are all LibDem.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,799

    Cookie said:

    .

    TOPPING said:

    It's complicated, but if I had to identify one single thing behind the Reform surge it would be asylum seekers in hotels. There's enough outrage about this to add quite a few percent to the Reform vote everywhere as, rightly or wrongly (probably the latter), people think they could solve it.

    This ties in with the boats. Now, this election notwithstanding, where I think those who don't like foreigners are making their position known, the UK has consistently shown that it is happy to have immigrants, and plenty of them. What they don't like is being out of control, or freeloaders.

    The boats represent a tangible example of the government not being able to control its own borders, and hence why successive governments are so keen to stop them, despite the tiny numbers arriving in this way.

    Likewise, "asylum hotels" are seen as freeloading and jumping the queue. And every freeborn Englishman detests queue jumpers.
    The people in hotels would love to have jobs. That’s what they’re hoping for, to get asylum and to be allowed to get a job. The rules don’t let them have jobs. The system forces them not to do anything and the Tories then produced these very long proceeding times.
    Do you not see how allowing asylum seekers to work would be abused? It would also undermine the visa system and is against the interests of local workers.
    I'm not saying it's a good idea to allow asylum seekers to work. I'm saying that calling them freeloaders is inaccurate. What would be good is to process applications as quickly as possible, to deport those we should deport quickly and to admit those we want to admit quickly so they can stop freeloading and start contributing.
    Contributing to holding down wages and competing for housing... Giving Deliveroo an even more plentiful supply of migrant workers might be in their interests but it's not in the national interest.
    On a related note, I've just come back from Sale town centre to find a small tent encampment has been set up by MEANA men who are apparently asylum seekers who have been granted leave to remain. I don't know whether the same things are features of other small provincial towns and suburbs, but I'd suggest it hasn't done Reform's chances any harm.
    If they have been granted leave to remain, they are not asylum seekers. They have been given asylum. They are asylum gainers.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/granting-discretionary-leave/discretionary-leave-accessible
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,095
    rcs1000 said:

    Taz said:

    So far it looks like Reform performing to par or just above, Lib Dems performing well, Green a few gains, Labour as expected and the Tories getting an absolute dicking.

    I would say Reform is doing extremely well, the LibDems quite well, Greens are falling slightly short, and both Labour and Conservatives are being hammered.
    Yes, your analysis is right and Taz is uncharacteristically wrong. This is an outstanding performance by Reform, and both Labour and the Tories are being marmalised, arguably Labour is doing even WORSE
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 6,293
    Andy_JS said:

    I've stopped for a beer in Nay

    Nay is about thirteen miles from where I stayed last night in Gan

    Gan is about five miles from Pau

    They all have proper rugby clubs

    I bet there aren't three other rugby clubs with three letter town or city names within twenty miles of each other

    I bet nobody will ever bother to check this, or ever bother to point it out again

    This is south west France?
    It is. I can see the Pyrenees just above the pharmacy across the road
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,245
    So Reform haven’t got a clue and have duped the gullible. Apparently they’ll start with cutting traffic calming measures so more people can end up as roadkill .

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,267
    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Reform now well ahead on council seats declared with Labour only fifth.

    Reform 335, Conservatives 121, LDs 112, Independent 38, Labour 29, Greens 27

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c39jedewxp8t

    This is an astounding performance by Reform. Seismic changes

    Remember they are starting, essentially, from zero

    It's like winning a 200m sprint where everyone else is already running but you have to crouch, wait, on your marks, Go
    For now but these were provincial England elections only where Reform would be expected to do best, no doubt a very good day for Farage nonetheless with the Runcorn by election win on top.

    However Farage haters of whichever of the main parties will now be looking to tactically vote for whichever party is best placed to beat Reform in their ward or constituency in elections to come up to and including the next GE
    The potrntial number of tactical voters of any sort is much smaller than we well-informed denizens of internet fora often imagine.
    And the potential number of Con voters who will vote Lab to keep out Ref is tiny.
    And the potential number of Lab voters who will vote Con to keep out Ref is infinitessimal.
    No but the potential number of LD and Green voters who will vote Labour to keep out Ref is high and in the few seats where Reform and the Tories were the top 2 last time you may well get some Labour and LD voters holding their nose and voting Tory
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,570
    The world according to Mogg.

    "Jacob Rees-Mogg says 'conservatism having fantastic 24 hours', as he urges Tories and Reform UK to work together"

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2025/may/02/local-elections-polls-labour-tories-reform-council-mayor-uk-politics-live-news
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,948
    Eabhal said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Which is great for Reform, but also brings with it a challenge. Running councils is a thankless job, because of the number of things you are legally required to spend money on. It's also highly likely that most of the elected representatives won't know much about how councils are run.

    Which is potentially a great position to be in for a party seeking national power to Reform the country. They will have endless examples to draw on of dysfunctional outcomes caused by statutory obligations imposed on local government.
    Those statutory obligations are little things like education, social work, bins collection and social care. Also child safeguarding - is that something Reform are going to complain about?!

    In fact, a lot of stuff that is "broken" about the UK is actually governed at the local level.
    At a guess, we're going to end up with quite a lot of town hall mini-Trumps trying to slash services so that they can cut council tax. That may be popular with ex-Tory Refukkers, but perhaps not so much with ex-Labour ones.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,693

    Andy_JS said:

    I've stopped for a beer in Nay

    Nay is about thirteen miles from where I stayed last night in Gan

    Gan is about five miles from Pau

    They all have proper rugby clubs

    I bet there aren't three other rugby clubs with three letter town or city names within twenty miles of each other

    I bet nobody will ever bother to check this, or ever bother to point it out again

    This is south west France?
    It is. I can see the Pyrenees just above the pharmacy across the road
    Visit the racetrack at Pau, if you can, Blanche.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,272

    Moggy says that "Conservatism" is having a fantastic election...

    What an idiot
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,353
    Devon completes their count.

    East Devon (11/11)
    Axminister: Ind gain from Con
    Broadcylst (2): 1 Grn hold, 1 Ref gain from Con
    Exmouth (2): 1 Con hold, 1 Ref gain from Con
    Exmouth and Budleigh Salterton Coastal: LD gain from Con
    Feniton & Honiton: LD gain from Con
    Otter Valley: Ind hold
    Seaton & Colyton: LD gain from Con
    Sidmouth: LD gain from Con
    Whimple and Blackdown: LD gain from Con

    Exeter (9/9)
    Alphington & Cowick: Ref gain from Lab
    Duryard & Pennsylvania: LD gain from Con
    Exwick & St Thomas: Ref gain from Lab
    Heavitree & Whipton Barton: Grn gain from Lab
    Pinhoe & Mincinglake: Ref gain from Lab
    St Sidwells & St James: Grn gain from Lab
    St Davids & Haven Banks: Grn gain from Lab
    Wearside & Topsham: Con hold
    Wonford & St Loyes: Ref gain from Lab

    Mid Devon (6/6)
    Crediton: LD hold
    Creedy Taw & Mid Exe: LD gain from Con
    Cullompton & Bradninch: LD gain from Con
    Willand & Uffculme: LD gain from Con
    Tiverton East: Ref gain from Con
    Tiverton West: LD gain from Con

    North Devon (8/8)
    Barnstaple North: LD hold
    Barnstaple South: LD hold
    Braunton Rural: LD gain from Con
    Chulmleigh & Landkey: LD gain from Con
    Combe Martin Rural: Con hold
    Fremington Rural: LD gain from Ind
    Ilfracombe: Grn gain from Con
    South Molton: Ref gain from Con

    South Hams (7/7)
    Bickley & Wembury: Con hold
    Dartmouth & Marldon: LD gain from Con
    Ivybridge: LD gain from Con
    Kingsbridge: LD hold
    Salcombe: LD gain from Con
    South Brent & Yealmpton: LD hold
    Totnes & Dartington: Grn hold

    Teignbridge (10/10)
    Ashburton & Buckfastleigh: Con hold
    Bovey Rural: LD gain from Con
    Chudleigh & Teign Valley: LD gain from Con
    Dawlish: LD hold
    Exminster & Haldon: LD hold
    Ipplepen & The Kerswells: Ref gain from LD
    Kingsteignton & Teign Estuary: Ref gain from Con
    Newton Abbot North: Ref gain from Con
    Newton Abbot South: Ref gain from Ind
    Teignmouth: LD hold

    Torridge (5/5)
    Bideford East: Ref gain from Con
    Bideford West & Hartland: Ref gain from Con
    Holsworthy Rural: Ref gain from Con
    Northam: Con hold
    Torrington Rural: LD gain from Con

    West Devon (4/4)
    Hatherleigh & Chagford: Ref gain from Con
    Okehampton Rural: Ref gain from Con
    Tavistock: Con hold
    Yelverton Rural: Ref gain from Con

    After 60/60 seats declared
    Reform: 18 (+18) (12 gains from Con, 4 from Lab, 1 from LD, 1 from Ind)
    Liberal Democrats: 27 (+18) (18 gains from Con, 1 from Ind, 1 loss to Ref)
    Conservatives: 7 (-32) (18 losses to LD, 12 to Ref, 1 to Grn, 1 to Ind)
    Green: 6 (+4) (3 gains from Lab, 1 from Con)
    Labour: 0 (-7) (4 losses to Ref, 3 to Grn)
    Independent: 2 (-1) (1 gain from Con, 1 loss to LD, 1 loss to Ref)
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,371
    edited May 2
    Taz said:

    So far it looks like Reform performing to par or just above, Lib Dems performing well, Green a few gains, Labour as expected and the Tories getting an absolute dicking.

    Reform - very well indeed
    LDs - well
    Greens - par/quite well
    Labour - disaster
    Tory - disaster +1

    Is pretty much how I see things.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,588
    Andy_JS said:

    Changes according to the Guardian (seems to be different to BBC and Sky)

    Ref +72
    Con -50
    Lab -14
    LD -1
    Oth -5

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk

    That is exceptionally out of date - ignore.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,328
    Ref gain Nottinghamshire, and Labour win a 2nd seat !
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,693
    Chris said:

    Eabhal said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Which is great for Reform, but also brings with it a challenge. Running councils is a thankless job, because of the number of things you are legally required to spend money on. It's also highly likely that most of the elected representatives won't know much about how councils are run.

    Which is potentially a great position to be in for a party seeking national power to Reform the country. They will have endless examples to draw on of dysfunctional outcomes caused by statutory obligations imposed on local government.
    Those statutory obligations are little things like education, social work, bins collection and social care. Also child safeguarding - is that something Reform are going to complain about?!

    In fact, a lot of stuff that is "broken" about the UK is actually governed at the local level.
    At a guess, we're going to end up with quite a lot of town hall mini-Trumps trying to slash services so that they can cut council tax. That may be popular with ex-Tory Refukkers, but perhaps not so much with ex-Labour ones.
    Would be very difficult, Chris, without breaching statutory obligations. This is where I think we will find the Refukkers are well and truly cattle trucked.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,229
    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Reform now well ahead on council seats declared with Labour only fifth.

    Reform 335, Conservatives 121, LDs 112, Independent 38, Labour 29, Greens 27

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c39jedewxp8t

    This is an astounding performance by Reform. Seismic changes

    Remember they are starting, essentially, from zero

    It's like winning a 200m sprint where everyone else is already running but you have to crouch, wait, on your marks, Go
    For now but these were provincial England elections only where Reform would be expected to do best, no doubt a very good day for Farage nonetheless with the Runcorn by election win on top.

    However Farage haters of whichever of the main parties will now be looking to tactically vote for whichever party is best placed to beat Reform in their ward or constituency in elections to come up to and including the next GE
    The potrntial number of tactical voters of any sort is much smaller than we well-informed denizens of internet fora often imagine.
    And the potential number of Con voters who will vote Lab to keep out Ref is tiny.
    And the potential number of Lab voters who will vote Con to keep out Ref is infinitessimal.
    No but the potential number of LD and Green voters who will vote Labour to keep out Ref is high and in the few seats where Reform and the Tories were the top 2 last time you may well get some Labour and LD voters holding their nose and voting Tory
    Labour will need to convince potential LD and Grn voters that they are, in fact, best placed to stop Reform. They might also want to consider sounding a bit more socially liberal if they want tactical votes from social liberals.
  • twistedfirestopper3twistedfirestopper3 Posts: 2,542
    edited May 2
    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    .

    TOPPING said:

    It's complicated, but if I had to identify one single thing behind the Reform surge it would be asylum seekers in hotels. There's enough outrage about this to add quite a few percent to the Reform vote everywhere as, rightly or wrongly (probably the latter), people think they could solve it.

    This ties in with the boats. Now, this election notwithstanding, where I think those who don't like foreigners are making their position known, the UK has consistently shown that it is happy to have immigrants, and plenty of them. What they don't like is being out of control, or freeloaders.

    The boats represent a tangible example of the government not being able to control its own borders, and hence why successive governments are so keen to stop them, despite the tiny numbers arriving in this way.

    Likewise, "asylum hotels" are seen as freeloading and jumping the queue. And every freeborn Englishman detests queue jumpers.
    The people in hotels would love to have jobs. That’s what they’re hoping for, to get asylum and to be allowed to get a job. The rules don’t let them have jobs. The system forces them not to do anything and the Tories then produced these very long proceeding times.
    Do you not see how allowing asylum seekers to work would be abused? It would also undermine the visa system and is against the interests of local workers.
    I'm not saying it's a good idea to allow asylum seekers to work. I'm saying that calling them freeloaders is inaccurate. What would be good is to process applications as quickly as possible, to deport those we should deport quickly and to admit those we want to admit quickly so they can stop freeloading and start contributing.
    Contributing to holding down wages and competing for housing... Giving Deliveroo an even more plentiful supply of migrant workers might be in their interests but it's not in the national interest.
    On a related note, I've just come back from Sale town centre to find a small tent encampment has been set up by MEANA men who are apparently asylum seekers who have been granted leave to remain. I don't know whether the same things are features of other small provincial towns and suburbs, but I'd suggest it hasn't done Reform's chances any harm.
    They are everywhere

    I met a friend yesterday for drinks, Tramadol and Gascake, and he told me of a recent visit to Bournemouth - a town he knows well, as he's from Dorset

    Bournemouth has always had a grungey side but he said it is now positively menacing for a mile or more, in the town centre. With asylum seekers - exactly as you describe - loitering eveywhere, apparently doing nothing

    They all have to go. Send them all home. Withdraw from the EHRC and cancel the general right to asylum, except for unique cases like Ukraine and HK. Enough

    We've got them in Camden too, but to be fair they probably make Camden Town, by the Tube, a bit nicer
    I visit Bournemouth and surrounding areas a lot. I was there last week and can tell you that the towncentre does indeed have a homeless problem, but the vast majority appear to be British.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,267
    Reform have now gained control of Derbyshire council too
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,811

    TOPPING said:

    .

    TOPPING said:

    It's complicated, but if I had to identify one single thing behind the Reform surge it would be asylum seekers in hotels. There's enough outrage about this to add quite a few percent to the Reform vote everywhere as, rightly or wrongly (probably the latter), people think they could solve it.

    This ties in with the boats. Now, this election notwithstanding, where I think those who don't like foreigners are making their position known, the UK has consistently shown that it is happy to have immigrants, and plenty of them. What they don't like is being out of control, or freeloaders.

    The boats represent a tangible example of the government not being able to control its own borders, and hence why successive governments are so keen to stop them, despite the tiny numbers arriving in this way.

    Likewise, "asylum hotels" are seen as freeloading and jumping the queue. And every freeborn Englishman detests queue jumpers.
    The people in hotels would love to have jobs. That’s what they’re hoping for, to get asylum and to be allowed to get a job. The rules don’t let them have jobs. The system forces them not to do anything and the Tories then produced these very long proceeding times.
    Sure. Not the point. People (UK people) see them as freeloading and getting room service of coffee and pain au chocolat plus a spa treatment at the taxpayers' expense.
    Wouldn't it be a good thing if UK people were better informed as to reality?
    Bless.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,770
    I will not visit any county with a Reform council.

    Like Trump’s America you have to hit them in their wallets.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,944
    viewcode said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    tlg86 said:

    Another Tory source contacts me with this upbeat assessment: "Don’t forget to pay attention to the West Country and South West. Yes Reform exist here, but it’s the Lib Dems we’re getting a f*****g pounding from".

    Tory source warms to their Lib Dem theme: "The Lib Dems are like Japanese knot weed. Once they're in it takes a flamethrower and a crucifix to get rid of them".


    From the Twitter feed of Dan Hodges.

    I'm not sure what I'd advise the Tories to do, however, they already lost a load of seats to the Lib Dems last time. What seats they do have are more at risk from Reform than the Lib Dems.
    The Tories are buggered either way.

    Come up with a strategy that wins back seats like Witney and Esher & Walton and also wins back the Stoke seats.
    Two basic problems:
    1) What are the Conservatives for? What do you stand for? Whats the big picture?
    2) Proven to be utterly crap in office. Not just ineffectual, but catastrophically poor at governing

    This can be fixed. But it means dropping "tactics" like going after Labour over woke issues and going back to "rebuild Britain through Business". And you'll only get away with that by accepting how catastrophic a job was done in government and changing direction.

    Reform are out there saying Britain is Broken. At a fundamental level. And have some new ideas to go after. Tories seem to be claiming it isn't broken actually because you did a brilliant job actually but all the stuff that is broken actually is Labour's fault because actually that Keir Starmer was in charge from opposition.
    What should the Tories be for?

    Sound money, low inflation, no QE nonsense, a balanced budget, an improved trading situation; equality of opportunity, reward for effort and hard work (implying lower taxes), care with the public purse ensuring tax payers money is spent carefully and wisely; support and care for those that need it but with a priority, where appropriate, of encouraging people to provide for themselves and for their families; a strong defence; immigration that benefits UK plc by bringing in people with talents, investment and entrepreneurial drive; the rule of law and respect for institutions, home ownership, self sufficiency and self reliance; and a strong sense of the national interest over sectorial interests.

    The problem is that if you mark the government from 2019 to 2024 out of 10 on that list you struggle to get a pass mark. And I really don't know if this matches Kemi's aspirations or not. I will not be voting Tory with any enthusiasm until I have had assurances about a lot of this.
    I disagree with many of the policies, but go back to the two landslide Tory administrations of the 80s. A clear brand image and policy platform, aspiration at the heart both of the politics and the economy, a significant program of economic and social reform, and the part Labour never wanted to credit - significant investment into skills and training and regeneration.

    In summary, what the Tories need to rediscover is capitalism. They binned it off firstly in favour of bankism and then oligarchism. Money needs to circulate. Jobs need to pay more than bills, so that people have cash to spend on stuff which creates jobs which drives growth and so on.

    Too much cash has been taken away by a small number of individuals and companies, with the Tories promoting their needs. Which is why "fuck business" was so damaging - it wasn't just a whoops moment, it was active policy.
    But a lot of what the Tories did under Thatcher in the 1980s could only be done once.
    You can't sell off millions of council houses on the cheap more than once.
    You can't privatise the profitable bits of the public sector more than once.
    You can't steal Scotland's oil revenues more than once.
    And the legacy of all three poisons our politics still
    Would you deny that Labour inherited a golden legacy in 1997?
    When I was doing my journalism degree in 1997 I wrote a number of stories on my course. One that stuck with me was the terrible nature of so many of the city schools - literally falling down. One with a steel endoskeleton which had been installed in classrooms because the roof was falling down.

    And remember the NHS? Similarly crumbling hospitals, endless waits for treatment.

    Governments delivering a golden legacy don't get demolished by landslides.
    Isn't an endoskeleton just a skeleton?
    Um...? Yes, but the existence of "exoskeleton" demanded the existence of "endoskeleton".
    I don't see why.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,272
    DM_Andy said:

    Devon completes their count.

    East Devon (11/11)
    Axminister: Ind gain from Con
    Broadcylst (2): 1 Grn hold, 1 Ref gain from Con
    Exmouth (2): 1 Con hold, 1 Ref gain from Con
    Exmouth and Budleigh Salterton Coastal: LD gain from Con
    Feniton & Honiton: LD gain from Con
    Otter Valley: Ind hold
    Seaton & Colyton: LD gain from Con
    Sidmouth: LD gain from Con
    Whimple and Blackdown: LD gain from Con

    Exeter (9/9)
    Alphington & Cowick: Ref gain from Lab
    Duryard & Pennsylvania: LD gain from Con
    Exwick & St Thomas: Ref gain from Lab
    Heavitree & Whipton Barton: Grn gain from Lab
    Pinhoe & Mincinglake: Ref gain from Lab
    St Sidwells & St James: Grn gain from Lab
    St Davids & Haven Banks: Grn gain from Lab
    Wearside & Topsham: Con hold
    Wonford & St Loyes: Ref gain from Lab

    Mid Devon (6/6)
    Crediton: LD hold
    Creedy Taw & Mid Exe: LD gain from Con
    Cullompton & Bradninch: LD gain from Con
    Willand & Uffculme: LD gain from Con
    Tiverton East: Ref gain from Con
    Tiverton West: LD gain from Con

    North Devon (8/8)
    Barnstaple North: LD hold
    Barnstaple South: LD hold
    Braunton Rural: LD gain from Con
    Chulmleigh & Landkey: LD gain from Con
    Combe Martin Rural: Con hold
    Fremington Rural: LD gain from Ind
    Ilfracombe: Grn gain from Con
    South Molton: Ref gain from Con

    South Hams (7/7)
    Bickley & Wembury: Con hold
    Dartmouth & Marldon: LD gain from Con
    Ivybridge: LD gain from Con
    Kingsbridge: LD hold
    Salcombe: LD gain from Con
    South Brent & Yealmpton: LD hold
    Totnes & Dartington: Grn hold

    Teignbridge (10/10)
    Ashburton & Buckfastleigh: Con hold
    Bovey Rural: LD gain from Con
    Chudleigh & Teign Valley: LD gain from Con
    Dawlish: LD hold
    Exminster & Haldon: LD hold
    Ipplepen & The Kerswells: Ref gain from LD
    Kingsteignton & Teign Estuary: Ref gain from Con
    Newton Abbot North: Ref gain from Con
    Newton Abbot South: Ref gain from Ind
    Teignmouth: LD hold

    Torridge (5/5)
    Bideford East: Ref gain from Con
    Bideford West & Hartland: Ref gain from Con
    Holsworthy Rural: Ref gain from Con
    Northam: Con hold
    Torrington Rural: LD gain from Con

    West Devon (4/4)
    Hatherleigh & Chagford: Ref gain from Con
    Okehampton Rural: Ref gain from Con
    Tavistock: Con hold
    Yelverton Rural: Ref gain from Con

    After 60/60 seats declared
    Reform: 18 (+18) (12 gains from Con, 4 from Lab, 1 from LD, 1 from Ind)
    Liberal Democrats: 27 (+18) (18 gains from Con, 1 from Ind, 1 loss to Ref)
    Conservatives: 7 (-32) (18 losses to LD, 12 to Ref, 1 to Grn, 1 to Ind)
    Green: 6 (+4) (3 gains from Lab, 1 from Con)
    Labour: 0 (-7) (4 losses to Ref, 3 to Grn)
    Independent: 2 (-1) (1 gain from Con, 1 loss to LD, 1 loss to Ref)

    LibDem/Green administration?
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 948

    Striking result from Minchinghampton, south of Cheltenham:

    Minchinhampton held by Greens

    Bella Amory Conservative 444

    Adam Giles Crispin Cain Liberal Democrats 131

    David James Carter Labour 236

    John Lee Marsden Reform UK 622

    Chloe Isobel Turner Green Party 2199


    If you have ever been there you may have noted the resemblance it bears to Middle Earth.

    Mordor, Gondor, or The Shire?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,811
    Leon said:

    It is with a heavy heart that I have to tell PB that yes, the worst rumours are true

    Mebyon Kernow, the "Sons of Cornwall", have lost a councillor

    Ah. I thought he was the pretender to the throne of England.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,570
    HYUFD said:

    Reform have now gained control of Derbyshire council too

    No surprise at all. Probably has the best demographics of anywhere for the party.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,974
    Starmer’s comms are truly inept.

    https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1918276396566143014

    National security is the bedrock of our Plan for Change.

    I am determined to keep this country safe and invest in defence spending that will bring jobs and growth.

    We’re going further and faster to deliver the security you deserve.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,948

    Chris said:

    Eabhal said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Which is great for Reform, but also brings with it a challenge. Running councils is a thankless job, because of the number of things you are legally required to spend money on. It's also highly likely that most of the elected representatives won't know much about how councils are run.

    Which is potentially a great position to be in for a party seeking national power to Reform the country. They will have endless examples to draw on of dysfunctional outcomes caused by statutory obligations imposed on local government.
    Those statutory obligations are little things like education, social work, bins collection and social care. Also child safeguarding - is that something Reform are going to complain about?!

    In fact, a lot of stuff that is "broken" about the UK is actually governed at the local level.
    At a guess, we're going to end up with quite a lot of town hall mini-Trumps trying to slash services so that they can cut council tax. That may be popular with ex-Tory Refukkers, but perhaps not so much with ex-Labour ones.
    Would be very difficult, Chris, without breaching statutory obligations. This is where I think we will find the Refukkers are well and truly cattle trucked.
    Doesn't that just mean they'll have to slash services without such protection, and even so will be able to deliver only modest tax cuts? Which could be the worst of both worlds.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,229
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Taz said:

    So far it looks like Reform performing to par or just above, Lib Dems performing well, Green a few gains, Labour as expected and the Tories getting an absolute dicking.

    I would say Reform is doing extremely well, the LibDems quite well, Greens are falling slightly short, and both Labour and Conservatives are being hammered.
    Yes, your analysis is right and Taz is uncharacteristically wrong. This is an outstanding performance by Reform, and both Labour and the Tories are being marmalised, arguably Labour is doing even WORSE
    No, Labour is doing better than the Tories (and Reform, while having an excellent round, isn't quite outstanding for the same reason).

    And that reason is three mayoralities that tipped red on a knife-edge: Doncaster, North Tyne and West of England. They could easily have all been Reform gains.

    For practical purposes, it doesn't matter hugely in the big picture (though three extra mayors would have given Reform a wider set of media heads to use) but the bottom line is results and while Reform's councillor results are indeed outstanding, the night could easily have been better still for them in the higher-profile races.
Sign In or Register to comment.