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A reminder that getting out the vote is crucial – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,447
edited May 2 in General
A reminder that getting out the vote is crucial – politicalbetting.com

I’ve only just woken up so not had time to properly analyse the early results but the by-election shows why every little helps when it comes to winning.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,247
    edited May 2
    First by six votes
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,961
    First before the corrupt election officials STOLE THE ELECTION
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,270
    Closest by-election EVER!
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,821
    edited May 2
    (1/5)

    To me this suggests the anti-Reform vote is very strong. Voters are still willing to vote tactically to stop a party they dont like. Well done to Reform UK all the same.

    Honestly I thought Reform would walk it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,739
    US Vice-President JD Vance has said the war in Ukraine is "not going to end any time soon", in an interview with Fox News.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,359
    Liverpool fans' celebrations caused earth tremor
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn8vey9355po
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,908
    edited May 2

    (1/5)

    To me this suggests the anti-Reform vote is very strong. Voters are still willing to vote tactically to stop a party they dont like. Well done to Reform UK all the same.

    Honestly I thought Reform would walk it.

    Most voters are willing to vote tactically, except Green supporters.

    I also thought Reform would walk it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,721

    US Vice-President JD Vance has said the war in Ukraine is "not going to end any time soon", in an interview with Fox News.

    I'm sure he's working hard to help Russia end it.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,908

    US Vice-President JD Vance has said the war in Ukraine is "not going to end any time soon", in an interview with Fox News.

    Even the fool can be correct on occasion.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,109
    Seems to be the tories and Labour haven’t quite grasped the mood out there - seemingly continuing in the same way they have for decades and changing nothing.

    Starmer needs to stop the “smash the gangs” rubbish as quite clearly it’s making no difference. Reeves needs to go. And we need to start having an honest conversation about the NHS and whether there is a “better way”.

    Badenoch - well, she’s quite useless. She won’t be around for much longer I think.

    Apart from that, really fascinating time in politics
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,808
    Why on earth do Labour put Ellie Reeves on to talk for them ? She;s appalling.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,721
    There was at least one ward level prediction for the locals, it would be interesting if the overnights matched it, before we go into today's.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,821
    (2/5)

    Farage is still bigging up Musk and by implication Trump despite both having categorically failed to cut anything.

    As I said a few days ago, I still think things will look very different by 2029.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,563
    IanB2 said:

    Closest by-election EVER!

    Reform won BIGLY. People are telling me this is this the greatest by-election EVER. No-one has ever won like this before!! It's true.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,821
    (3/5)

    As for Labour’s policy on the boats, I think they’ve got to make a deal of some kind with France and perhaps look at other changes to the law.

    I really do not like the idea we leave the EHRC though. I’d like somebody to explain why we must do that to solve this problem.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,432

    (1/5)

    To me this suggests the anti-Reform vote is very strong. Voters are still willing to vote tactically to stop a party they dont like. Well done to Reform UK all the same.

    Honestly I thought Reform would walk it.

    Most voters are willing to vote tactically, except Green supporters.

    I also thought Reform would walk it.
    Something similar in Uxbridge, wasn't it? With the added irony that Labour's failure to win nudged the party in a less green direction.

    Realos vs. Fundis. It's always been a problem on the left- some people want everything and hence end up with nothing. Right-wingers have tended to be more pragmatic, which is why they win more often.

    It's what makes the rise of Reform (who have Fundi-right as their core) so discombobulating. Especially when coupled with a Labour government which is mostly about grim pragmatism.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,270
    edited May 2

    (1/5)

    To me this suggests the anti-Reform vote is very strong. Voters are still willing to vote tactically to stop a party they dont like. Well done to Reform UK all the same.

    Honestly I thought Reform would walk it.

    Most voters are willing to vote tactically, except Green supporters.

    I also thought Reform would walk it.
    The bigger picture, pending the councils, is that Reform has fallen short on expectations. Probably thanks to Trump.

    And Jenkyns, as a former minister with her own power base, and known stroppy character, is clearly going to be trouble for Farage.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 711
    Had a couple of bets. Labour to win (5/2) as I thought they'd get out the vote. And if they didn't, Reform to win with over 40% of the vote (3/1).

    Bugger.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,873
    nico67 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?
    Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.
    Which party is going to be brave enough to end the triple lock ? My answer none .
    It's not just the state pension, public sector pensions need a 30-40% haircut too. In too many areas we're living well beyond our means and our welfare state is far, far beyond a safety net. Cut a million people from state employment to take us back to 2017, taper the state pension for higher rate tax payers, merge NI and income tax so that non-working income is taxed at the same rate as working income, cut to £2k the cash ISA allowance, push through a 30-40% haircut for defined benefit pensions (even for people currently receiving them), introduce much, much tougher criteria to receive disability benefits and exclude all but 5% of the most serious mental health cases by default. The rest can go back to work or live on £450 per month or whatever UC is for unemployed people. Also get rid of UC, move back to the old system if JSA and ESA, UC is an experiment that hasn't worked, it's just encouraged people to game the system worse than ever.

    I think if Labour started that programme today by the end of the parliament we could be in a position to actually pay front line service staff more and attract better quality candidates for teachers, police, nurses etc...

    What we have now is an underfunded and hugely over funded state at the same time it's literally the worst of both worlds.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,563

    US Vice-President JD Vance has said the war in Ukraine is "not going to end any time soon", in an interview with Fox News.

    A complete waste of human life. Tragic doesn't come close.

    I really hope Putin and his acolytes one day meet a very sticky end, and they are haunted for eternity in purgatory.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,270

    Why on earth do Labour put Ellie Reeves on to talk for them ? She;s appalling.

    She has the same mid-sentence ‘err’ affliction as her sister.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,739

    Why on earth do Labour put Ellie Reeves on to talk for them ? She;s appalling.

    Sister - Rachel Reeves, Labour MP
    Husband - John Cryer, former Labour MP
    Father in law - Bob Cryer, former Labour MP
    Mother in law - Ann Cryer, former Labour MP
    Other than entertainment, is there an "industry" that has a worse problem with nepotism?
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,883
    MaxPB said:

    nico67 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?
    Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.
    Which party is going to be brave enough to end the triple lock ? My answer none .
    It's not just the state pension, public sector pensions need a 30-40% haircut too. In too many areas we're living well beyond our means and our welfare state is far, far beyond a safety net. Cut a million people from state employment to take us back to 2017, taper the state pension for higher rate tax payers, merge NI and income tax so that non-working income is taxed at the same rate as working income, cut to £2k the cash ISA allowance, push through a 30-40% haircut for defined benefit pensions (even for people currently receiving them), introduce much, much tougher criteria to receive disability benefits and exclude all but 5% of the most serious mental health cases by default. The rest can go back to work or live on £450 per month or whatever UC is for unemployed people. Also get rid of UC, move back to the old system if JSA and ESA, UC is an experiment that hasn't worked, it's just encouraged people to game the system worse than ever.

    I think if Labour started that programme today by the end of the parliament we could be in a position to actually pay front line service staff more and attract better quality candidates for teachers, police, nurses etc...

    What we have now is an underfunded and hugely over funded state at the same time it's literally the worst of both worlds.
    I’m sure impoverishing millions will work out fine for you Max.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,558

    (1/5)

    To me this suggests the anti-Reform vote is very strong. Voters are still willing to vote tactically to stop a party they dont like. Well done to Reform UK all the same.

    Honestly I thought Reform would walk it.

    Most voters are willing to vote tactically, except Green supporters.

    I also thought Reform would walk it.
    Doesn't that depend on the variety of Green voters ?

    Environmental Greens, Nimby Greens, Trot Greens and Hamas Greens are all different.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,961

    Seems to be the tories and Labour haven’t quite grasped the mood out there - seemingly continuing in the same way they have for decades and changing nothing.

    Starmer needs to stop the “smash the gangs” rubbish as quite clearly it’s making no difference. Reeves needs to go. And we need to start having an honest conversation about the NHS and whether there is a “better way”.

    Badenoch - well, she’s quite useless. She won’t be around for much longer I think.

    Apart from that, really fascinating time in politics

    Here's the problem - Labour will rightly start quoting statistics at people showing how many extra GP appointments they have created. Whilst I have no doubt that statistically that is true, people's lived experience is far worse.

    What Labour seem to have blissfully forgotten in office is that statistics are not reality - they disguise reality. So many people can't see a GP and the queue for a scan to get onto a waiting list is in itself lengthy. So when they are they told that actually we're added another half a million GP appointments actually, they get rightly insulted.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,770

    Why on earth do Labour put Ellie Reeves on to talk for them ? She;s appalling.

    She read law, Labour have concluded the country loves a lawyer.

    Labour's biggest ever majorities have all been won by lawyers.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,839

    (1/5)

    To me this suggests the anti-Reform vote is very strong. Voters are still willing to vote tactically to stop a party they dont like. Well done to Reform UK all the same.

    Honestly I thought Reform would walk it.

    Most voters are willing to vote tactically, except Green supporters.

    I also thought Reform would walk it.
    A majority of 6 votes and less than 40% is not walking it.

    I'm surprised that 20% of the vote was spread across no hopers - that actually gives Reform more hope than anything else - in an election when only 2 parties could win 20% of voters actually went out and voted for no chance candidates.

    But if we go back to Tuesday I pointed out that 45-49.9% for reform at 8 was unlikely and that Labour at 4 was value. Got to say both statements were true because although Labour lost it was only 4/7 voters in it
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 711
    MaxPB said:

    nico67 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?
    Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.
    Which party is going to be brave enough to end the triple lock ? My answer none .
    It's not just the state pension, public sector pensions need a 30-40% haircut too. In too many areas we're living well beyond our means and our welfare state is far, far beyond a safety net. Cut a million people from state employment to take us back to 2017, taper the state pension for higher rate tax payers, merge NI and income tax so that non-working income is taxed at the same rate as working income, cut to £2k the cash ISA allowance, push through a 30-40% haircut for defined benefit pensions (even for people currently receiving them), introduce much, much tougher criteria to receive disability benefits and exclude all but 5% of the most serious mental health cases by default. The rest can go back to work or live on £450 per month or whatever UC is for unemployed people. Also get rid of UC, move back to the old system if JSA and ESA, UC is an experiment that hasn't worked, it's just encouraged people to game the system worse than ever.

    I think if Labour started that programme today by the end of the parliament we could be in a position to actually pay front line service staff more and attract better quality candidates for teachers, police, nurses etc...

    What we have now is an underfunded and hugely over funded state at the same time it's literally the worst of both worlds.
    But if you cut it (e.g. WFA/PIP) your client votes goes elsewhere. Nowt wrong with the politicians - but the electorate .....
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,821
    (4/5)

    What this by-election does show is that Reform is a real and obvious risk to Labour. But the good news is they have levers to pull should they want to. Or it might get a lot worse.

    The real risk for the Tories is they become irrelevant.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,359
    So, Andrea Jenkyns for next Prime Minister?

    Well, no, because Starmer will retire before the election so the next PM will be Labour, but Jenkyns could be the one after that.

    Reform could win the next election while Nigel Farage loses Clacton, a destination not in his satnav, a constituency he has largely ignored, holding (it is alleged) no surgeries there.

    If that happens, and if Dame Sir Andrea has stood as an MP, then she would be probably the most experienced Reform member, having been a whip and junior minister under Boris and Liz Truss.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,270
    edited May 2
    MaxPB said:

    nico67 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?
    Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.
    Which party is going to be brave enough to end the triple lock ? My answer none .
    It's not just the state pension, public sector pensions need a 30-40% haircut too. In too many areas we're living well beyond our means and our welfare state is far, far beyond a safety net. Cut a million people from state employment to take us back to 2017, taper the state pension for higher rate tax payers, merge NI and income tax so that non-working income is taxed at the same rate as working income, cut to £2k the cash ISA allowance, push through a 30-40% haircut for defined benefit pensions (even for people currently receiving them), introduce much, much tougher criteria to receive disability benefits and exclude all but 5% of the most serious mental health cases by default. The rest can go back to work or live on £450 per month or whatever UC is for unemployed people. Also get rid of UC, move back to the old system if JSA and ESA, UC is an experiment that hasn't worked, it's just encouraged people to game the system worse than ever.

    A mix of good and practicable ideas, there. Just a shame that few of the good ones are practicable and few of the practicable ones are any good…. ;)
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,944

    (1/5)

    To me this suggests the anti-Reform vote is very strong. Voters are still willing to vote tactically to stop a party they dont like. Well done to Reform UK all the same.

    Honestly I thought Reform would walk it.

    Most voters are willing to vote tactically, except Green supporters.

    I also thought Reform would walk it.
    It's good that they didn't, for Reform. It will help ensure they bust a gut to represent the seat well (though the new MP seems a pretty good egg anyway). They deserved to lose really after the appalling Lowe shenanigans. Not that Lowe isn't a pain in the hoop, but they way they 'dealt' with it has been shite, and probably cost them a few hundred votes in the seat.

    However, let's rememember this was Labour's 16th safest seat. It is amusing to think of a similar General Election result leaving them with 15 MPs. :lol:
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,844
    edited May 2
    FPT

    < blockquote class="Quote" rel="Taz">
    nico67 said:

    The problem with a Tory Reform pact is the notion that you can just add their vote totals together .

    The Tories would lose some of their voters who won’t support a pact . And there would be large tactical voting against any Tory Reform candidates .

    Many Reform voters are lapsed Labour voters. Certainly in my area. They won’t want to vote Tory either. Their voting Reform partly as NOTA and partly for the reasons Rochdale outlined, certainly around here. They’re not all thick, stupid, gullible, racist. Many just want a better life, tidier streets, less petty crime, less potholes and some civic pride.

    Reform may surprise on the upside (trademark PB) or not, but in Durham labour were shit, the coalition were shit, so why not give them a go.


  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,437

    US Vice-President JD Vance has said the war in Ukraine is "not going to end any time soon", in an interview with Fox News.

    A complete waste of human life. Tragic doesn't come close.

    I really hope Putin and his acolytes one day meet a very sticky end, and they are haunted for eternity in purgatory.
    Do Trump & Vance count as his acolytes?
    Cos I’m up for that.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,839

    Seems to be the tories and Labour haven’t quite grasped the mood out there - seemingly continuing in the same way they have for decades and changing nothing.

    Starmer needs to stop the “smash the gangs” rubbish as quite clearly it’s making no difference. Reeves needs to go. And we need to start having an honest conversation about the NHS and whether there is a “better way”.

    Badenoch - well, she’s quite useless. She won’t be around for much longer I think.

    Apart from that, really fascinating time in politics

    Here's the problem - Labour will rightly start quoting statistics at people showing how many extra GP appointments they have created. Whilst I have no doubt that statistically that is true, people's lived experience is far worse.

    What Labour seem to have blissfully forgotten in office is that statistics are not reality - they disguise reality. So many people can't see a GP and the queue for a scan to get onto a waiting list is in itself lengthy. So when they are they told that actually we're added another half a million GP appointments actually, they get rightly insulted.
    The actual problem you have is that it's patchy. I can get a same day phone GP appointment if I need it. Mrs Eek has had various scans within 2-4 weeks recently.

    But that level of service isn't the same everywhere and worse GPs are private organisations not quite the NHS. So it's hard to change things..
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,371
    IanB2 said:

    (1/5)

    To me this suggests the anti-Reform vote is very strong. Voters are still willing to vote tactically to stop a party they dont like. Well done to Reform UK all the same.

    Honestly I thought Reform would walk it.

    Most voters are willing to vote tactically, except Green supporters.

    I also thought Reform would walk it.
    The bigger picture, pending the councils, is that Reform has fallen short on expectations. Probably thanks to Trump.

    And Jenkyns, as a former minister with her own power base, and known stroppy character, is clearly going to be trouble for Farage.
    I’m not sure where the “short on expectations” is coming from. Maybe not winning those extra mayoralties, although they came closer than I expected them to in West of England. If anyone was expecting a stonking win in Runcorn I don’t think they were looking at the seat profile. That was always, to my mind, a genuine coin toss.

    The party are now a genuine electoral force and the main parties are going to have to, in their own ways, work out how to deal with them. However, it’s also correct that Reform in charge in places could put a dampener on the Party’s advance if they’re shown to generally make a mess of things.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,721

    US Vice-President JD Vance has said the war in Ukraine is "not going to end any time soon", in an interview with Fox News.

    A complete waste of human life. Tragic doesn't come close.

    I really hope Putin and his acolytes one day meet a very sticky end, and they are haunted for eternity in purgatory.
    Do Trump & Vance count as his acolytes?
    Cos I’m up for that.
    Fellow travellers at the least.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,563
    MaxPB said:

    nico67 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?
    Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.
    Which party is going to be brave enough to end the triple lock ? My answer none .
    It's not just the state pension, public sector pensions need a 30-40% haircut too. In too many areas we're living well beyond our means and our welfare state is far, far beyond a safety net. Cut a million people from state employment to take us back to 2017, taper the state pension for higher rate tax payers, merge NI and income tax so that non-working income is taxed at the same rate as working income, cut to £2k the cash ISA allowance, push through a 30-40% haircut for defined benefit pensions (even for people currently receiving them), introduce much, much tougher criteria to receive disability benefits and exclude all but 5% of the most serious mental health cases by default. The rest can go back to work or live on £450 per month or whatever UC is for unemployed people. Also get rid of UC, move back to the old system if JSA and ESA, UC is an experiment that hasn't worked, it's just encouraged people to game the system worse than ever.

    I think if Labour started that programme today by the end of the parliament we could be in a position to actually pay front line service staff more and attract better quality candidates for teachers, police, nurses etc...

    What we have now is an underfunded and hugely over funded state at the same time it's literally the worst of both worlds.
    This. And I've had quite enough of much of the public sector, which I think is full of timeservers and wasters in the 30k-60k bracket who are there to simply follow policy and police compliance and hoover up massive pensions. We don't need them. Benefits should be time-limited to 6 months only, and then it's food stamps only and hostels.

    Culturally, everyone needs to understand you are responsible for wealth creation, personally, and for making your own way in the world.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,961
    MaxPB said:

    nico67 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?
    Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.
    Which party is going to be brave enough to end the triple lock ? My answer none .
    It's not just the state pension, public sector pensions need a 30-40% haircut too. In too many areas we're living well beyond our means and our welfare state is far, far beyond a safety net. Cut a million people from state employment to take us back to 2017, taper the state pension for higher rate tax payers, merge NI and income tax so that non-working income is taxed at the same rate as working income, cut to £2k the cash ISA allowance, push through a 30-40% haircut for defined benefit pensions (even for people currently receiving them), introduce much, much tougher criteria to receive disability benefits and exclude all but 5% of the most serious mental health cases by default. The rest can go back to work or live on £450 per month or whatever UC is for unemployed people. Also get rid of UC, move back to the old system if JSA and ESA, UC is an experiment that hasn't worked, it's just encouraged people to game the system worse than ever.

    I think if Labour started that programme today by the end of the parliament we could be in a position to actually pay front line service staff more and attract better quality candidates for teachers, police, nurses etc...

    What we have now is an underfunded and hugely over funded state at the same time it's literally the worst of both worlds.
    You aren't going far enough. That list looks like reforms but in practice is just cuts. You say "go back to work" but the jobs aren't there, and the few who find a job quickly experience why in work benefits are so well used - work doesn't pay the bills.

    Unless you reimagine the welfare state in its entirety and make some surgical cuts to the cost of living, what you proposed creates a massive recession as circulating cash collapses which buggers local economies and makes the crumbling ruins of our towns collapse even faster.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,821
    edited May 2
    (5/5

    I do think Labour run a real risk of thinking statistics will make people feel better even if they don’t. A similar mistake to what the Democrats did.

    They really need to show some progress on things.

    I thought the fly tipping policy was one of their better “unique” ideas.

    I’ve really enjoyed @RochdalePioneers’ analysis as it fills in a lot of blindspots for me and they seem to have got little wrong so far.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,808

    Why on earth do Labour put Ellie Reeves on to talk for them ? She;s appalling.

    She read law, Labour have concluded the country loves a lawyer.

    Labour's biggest ever majorities have all been won by lawyers.
    She might as well come on TV and just bleat four legs good two legs bad

    Brainless.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,563

    MaxPB said:

    nico67 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?
    Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.
    Which party is going to be brave enough to end the triple lock ? My answer none .
    It's not just the state pension, public sector pensions need a 30-40% haircut too. In too many areas we're living well beyond our means and our welfare state is far, far beyond a safety net. Cut a million people from state employment to take us back to 2017, taper the state pension for higher rate tax payers, merge NI and income tax so that non-working income is taxed at the same rate as working income, cut to £2k the cash ISA allowance, push through a 30-40% haircut for defined benefit pensions (even for people currently receiving them), introduce much, much tougher criteria to receive disability benefits and exclude all but 5% of the most serious mental health cases by default. The rest can go back to work or live on £450 per month or whatever UC is for unemployed people. Also get rid of UC, move back to the old system if JSA and ESA, UC is an experiment that hasn't worked, it's just encouraged people to game the system worse than ever.

    I think if Labour started that programme today by the end of the parliament we could be in a position to actually pay front line service staff more and attract better quality candidates for teachers, police, nurses etc...

    What we have now is an underfunded and hugely over funded state at the same time it's literally the worst of both worlds.
    You aren't going far enough. That list looks like reforms but in practice is just cuts. You say "go back to work" but the jobs aren't there, and the few who find a job quickly experience why in work benefits are so well used - work doesn't pay the bills.

    Unless you reimagine the welfare state in its entirety and make some surgical cuts to the cost of living, what you proposed creates a massive recession as circulating cash collapses which buggers local economies and makes the crumbling ruins of our towns collapse even faster.
    The jobs are there - it's just very difficult for anyone who's been out of work a long time to get one because they are seen as "suspect".
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,739

    (5/5

    I do think Labour run a real risk of thinking statistics will make people feel better even if they don’t. A similar mistake to what the Democrats did.

    They really need to show some progress on things.

    I thought the fly tipping policy was one of their better “unique” ideas.

    I have been watching some of Rory Sutherland talks recently, politicians at the moment seem to do the opposite of any advice he would give to market your ideas better.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,908
    eek said:

    (1/5)

    To me this suggests the anti-Reform vote is very strong. Voters are still willing to vote tactically to stop a party they dont like. Well done to Reform UK all the same.

    Honestly I thought Reform would walk it.

    Most voters are willing to vote tactically, except Green supporters.

    I also thought Reform would walk it.
    A majority of 6 votes and less than 40% is not walking it.

    I'm surprised that 20% of the vote was spread across no hopers - that actually gives Reform more hope than anything else - in an election when only 2 parties could win 20% of voters actually went out and voted for no chance candidates.

    But if we go back to Tuesday I pointed out that 45-49.9% for reform at 8 was unlikely and that Labour at 4 was value. Got to say both statements were true because although Labour lost it was only 4/7 voters in it
    Yes, a majority of 6 votes and less than 40% is not walking it. I thought they would walk it and they didn’t. I said yesterday that the value bet was for Reform to win. I’d thought they win by thousands or maybe hundreds.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,563

    US Vice-President JD Vance has said the war in Ukraine is "not going to end any time soon", in an interview with Fox News.

    A complete waste of human life. Tragic doesn't come close.

    I really hope Putin and his acolytes one day meet a very sticky end, and they are haunted for eternity in purgatory.
    Do Trump & Vance count as his acolytes?
    Cos I’m up for that.
    No, they don't.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,739
    edited May 2

    Why on earth do Labour put Ellie Reeves on to talk for them ? She;s appalling.

    She read law, Labour have concluded the country loves a lawyer.

    Labour's biggest ever majorities have all been won by lawyers.
    She might as well come on TV and just bleat four legs good two legs bad

    Brainless.
    Well she did go to Oxford so that probably explains it.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,772
    West of England Mayor wins on 25% of the vote. A mandate?

    There is a strong case for AV in these elections. Mind, if there had been, Reform may have won in Donny and N Tyneside.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,270
    edited May 2

    IanB2 said:

    (1/5)

    To me this suggests the anti-Reform vote is very strong. Voters are still willing to vote tactically to stop a party they dont like. Well done to Reform UK all the same.

    Honestly I thought Reform would walk it.

    Most voters are willing to vote tactically, except Green supporters.

    I also thought Reform would walk it.
    The bigger picture, pending the councils, is that Reform has fallen short on expectations. Probably thanks to Trump.

    And Jenkyns, as a former minister with her own power base, and known stroppy character, is clearly going to be trouble for Farage.
    I’m not sure where the “short on expectations” is coming from. Maybe not winning those extra mayoralties, although they came closer than I expected them to in West of England. If anyone was expecting a stonking win in Runcorn I don’t think they were looking at the seat profile. That was always, to my mind, a genuine coin toss.

    The party are now a genuine electoral force and the main parties are going to have to, in their own ways, work out how to deal with them. However, it’s also correct that Reform in charge in places could put a dampener on the Party’s advance if they’re shown to generally make a mess of things.
    We’re in the stage of counterreaction against disillusion when, as for the SDP during the early ‘80s, Reform is expected to win almost everything. When they don’t, that’s falling short.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,534
    It feels like they've tilted England on it's side and all the fascists have rolled down towards the East coast
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,245
    Taz said:

    FPT

    < blockquote class="Quote" rel="Taz">

    nico67 said:

    The problem with a Tory Reform pact is the notion that you can just add their vote totals together .

    The Tories would lose some of their voters who won’t support a pact . And there would be large tactical voting against any Tory Reform candidates .

    Many Reform voters are lapsed Labour voters. Certainly in my area. They won’t want to vote Tory either. Their voting Reform partly as NOTA and partly for the reasons Rochdale outlined, certainly around here. They’re not all thick, stupid, gullible, racist. Many just want a better life, tidier streets, less petty crime, less potholes and some civic pride.

    Reform may surprise on the upside (trademark PB) or not, but in Durham labour were shit, the coalition were shit, so why not give them a go.


    At the moment they don’t have sole charge of any councils . I hope they win at least one so can put their plans into operation and then can be judged . We’ll see where the cuts are going to happen and what locals think of them .
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,502

    Why on earth do Labour put Ellie Reeves on to talk for them ? She;s appalling.

    She read law, Labour have concluded the country loves a lawyer.

    Labour's biggest ever majorities have all been won by lawyers.
    She might as well come on TV and just bleat four legs good two legs bad

    Brainless.
    No doubt has the CV for the TV.

    I always wondered why they put forwards the Eagle sisters too.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,770

    West of England Mayor wins on 25% of the vote. A mandate?

    There is a strong case for AV in these elections. Mind, if there had been, Reform may have won in Donny and N Tyneside.

    I hear you, I'll write an AV thread over the weekend
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,563
    Roger said:

    It feels like they've tilted England on it's side and all the fascists have rolled down towards the East coast

    Oh God, you're such an irredeemable plonker.

    Go into a home, Roger.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,066

    Why on earth do Labour put Ellie Reeves on to talk for them ? She;s appalling.

    Sister - Rachel Reeves, Labour MP
    Husband - John Cryer, former Labour MP
    Father in law - Bob Cryer, former Labour MP
    Mother in law - Ann Cryer, former Labour MP
    Other than entertainment, is there an "industry" that has a worse problem with nepotism?
    It's a recurring difficulty with the monarchy as well.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,432
    Taz said:

    FPT

    < blockquote class="Quote" rel="Taz">

    nico67 said:

    The problem with a Tory Reform pact is the notion that you can just add their vote totals together .

    The Tories would lose some of their voters who won’t support a pact . And there would be large tactical voting against any Tory Reform candidates .

    Many Reform voters are lapsed Labour voters. Certainly in my area. They won’t want to vote Tory either. Their voting Reform partly as NOTA and partly for the reasons Rochdale outlined, certainly around here. They’re not all thick, stupid, gullible, racist. Many just want a better life, tidier streets, less petty crime, less potholes and some civic pride.

    Reform may surprise on the upside (trademark PB) or not, but in Durham labour were shit, the coalition were shit, so why not give them a go.


    Many are, but most aren't. There was a rather near report into Reform-curious Labour voters recently. Some details in this thread;

    Firstly, to understand Labour/Reform switching it's important to put it in perspective.

    Historically speaking, Reform voters are not ‘Labour’s lost voters’. 74% of Reform 2024 voters have not voted Labour in a single election since 2005. It's mostly an anti-Labour vote.

    https://bsky.app/profile/steveakehurst.bsky.social/post/3lnua73au2c27
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,371
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    (1/5)

    To me this suggests the anti-Reform vote is very strong. Voters are still willing to vote tactically to stop a party they dont like. Well done to Reform UK all the same.

    Honestly I thought Reform would walk it.

    Most voters are willing to vote tactically, except Green supporters.

    I also thought Reform would walk it.
    The bigger picture, pending the councils, is that Reform has fallen short on expectations. Probably thanks to Trump.

    And Jenkyns, as a former minister with her own power base, and known stroppy character, is clearly going to be trouble for Farage.
    I’m not sure where the “short on expectations” is coming from. Maybe not winning those extra mayoralties, although they came closer than I expected them to in West of England. If anyone was expecting a stonking win in Runcorn I don’t think they were looking at the seat profile. That was always, to my mind, a genuine coin toss.

    The party are now a genuine electoral force and the main parties are going to have to, in their own ways, work out how to deal with them. However, it’s also correct that Reform in charge in places could put a dampener on the Party’s advance if they’re shown to generally make a mess of things.
    We’re in the stage of counterreaction against disillusion when, as for the SDP during the early ‘80s, Reform is expected to win almost everything. When they don’t, that’s falling short.
    That would be a misreading of the polls though.

    There’s three parties pretty much in a deadlock, each around the mid 20s (in recent months with Reform perhaps a touch higher and the Tories a touch lower, but not a tremendous amount in it).

    A national picture like that isn’t going to throw up one party winning everything.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 872
    If I were a right of centre voter then I would be extremely concerned that an electorally strong right wing party is on course to be replaced by an electorally weak one because of the mechanics of FPTP. It's exactly what happened to the Liberals ensuring more than a century of Conservative dominance.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,839

    MaxPB said:

    nico67 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?
    Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.
    Which party is going to be brave enough to end the triple lock ? My answer none .
    It's not just the state pension, public sector pensions need a 30-40% haircut too. In too many areas we're living well beyond our means and our welfare state is far, far beyond a safety net. Cut a million people from state employment to take us back to 2017, taper the state pension for higher rate tax payers, merge NI and income tax so that non-working income is taxed at the same rate as working income, cut to £2k the cash ISA allowance, push through a 30-40% haircut for defined benefit pensions (even for people currently receiving them), introduce much, much tougher criteria to receive disability benefits and exclude all but 5% of the most serious mental health cases by default. The rest can go back to work or live on £450 per month or whatever UC is for unemployed people. Also get rid of UC, move back to the old system if JSA and ESA, UC is an experiment that hasn't worked, it's just encouraged people to game the system worse than ever.

    I think if Labour started that programme today by the end of the parliament we could be in a position to actually pay front line service staff more and attract better quality candidates for teachers, police, nurses etc...

    What we have now is an underfunded and hugely over funded state at the same time it's literally the worst of both worlds.
    You aren't going far enough. That list looks like reforms but in practice is just cuts. You say "go back to work" but the jobs aren't there, and the few who find a job quickly experience why in work benefits are so well used - work doesn't pay the bills.

    Unless you reimagine the welfare state in its entirety and make some surgical cuts to the cost of living, what you proposed creates a massive recession as circulating cash collapses which buggers local economies and makes the crumbling ruins of our towns collapse even faster.
    The jobs are there - it's just very difficult for anyone who's been out of work a long time to get one because they are seen as "suspect".
    Are the jobs there where people can get to them or are they in places where as Norman Tebbit says you need to get on your bike / car?

  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,066

    Why on earth do Labour put Ellie Reeves on to talk for them ? She;s appalling.

    Sister - Rachel Reeves, Labour MP
    Husband - John Cryer, former Labour MP
    Father in law - Bob Cryer, former Labour MP
    Mother in law - Ann Cryer, former Labour MP
    You missed out her descent from Alfred the Great, Edward III via the Beauforts, Charlemagne, Rollo and Pedro the Cruel.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,961

    MaxPB said:

    nico67 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?
    Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.
    Which party is going to be brave enough to end the triple lock ? My answer none .
    It's not just the state pension, public sector pensions need a 30-40% haircut too. In too many areas we're living well beyond our means and our welfare state is far, far beyond a safety net. Cut a million people from state employment to take us back to 2017, taper the state pension for higher rate tax payers, merge NI and income tax so that non-working income is taxed at the same rate as working income, cut to £2k the cash ISA allowance, push through a 30-40% haircut for defined benefit pensions (even for people currently receiving them), introduce much, much tougher criteria to receive disability benefits and exclude all but 5% of the most serious mental health cases by default. The rest can go back to work or live on £450 per month or whatever UC is for unemployed people. Also get rid of UC, move back to the old system if JSA and ESA, UC is an experiment that hasn't worked, it's just encouraged people to game the system worse than ever.

    I think if Labour started that programme today by the end of the parliament we could be in a position to actually pay front line service staff more and attract better quality candidates for teachers, police, nurses etc...

    What we have now is an underfunded and hugely over funded state at the same time it's literally the worst of both worlds.
    You aren't going far enough. That list looks like reforms but in practice is just cuts. You say "go back to work" but the jobs aren't there, and the few who find a job quickly experience why in work benefits are so well used - work doesn't pay the bills.

    Unless you reimagine the welfare state in its entirety and make some surgical cuts to the cost of living, what you proposed creates a massive recession as circulating cash collapses which buggers local economies and makes the crumbling ruins of our towns collapse even faster.
    The jobs are there - it's just very difficult for anyone who's been out of work a long time to get one because they are seen as "suspect".
    If only that was true. There are few jobs in so many communities. Again, park the national statistics and look at it at a granular level. Speak to people. Look at towns and regions where the deprivation is crushing. You think that we can cure Middlesbrough by tipping people off welfare into all of those jobs which sit unfilled?

    What jobs?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,873

    MaxPB said:

    nico67 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?
    Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.
    Which party is going to be brave enough to end the triple lock ? My answer none .
    It's not just the state pension, public sector pensions need a 30-40% haircut too. In too many areas we're living well beyond our means and our welfare state is far, far beyond a safety net. Cut a million people from state employment to take us back to 2017, taper the state pension for higher rate tax payers, merge NI and income tax so that non-working income is taxed at the same rate as working income, cut to £2k the cash ISA allowance, push through a 30-40% haircut for defined benefit pensions (even for people currently receiving them), introduce much, much tougher criteria to receive disability benefits and exclude all but 5% of the most serious mental health cases by default. The rest can go back to work or live on £450 per month or whatever UC is for unemployed people. Also get rid of UC, move back to the old system if JSA and ESA, UC is an experiment that hasn't worked, it's just encouraged people to game the system worse than ever.

    I think if Labour started that programme today by the end of the parliament we could be in a position to actually pay front line service staff more and attract better quality candidates for teachers, police, nurses etc...

    What we have now is an underfunded and hugely over funded state at the same time it's literally the worst of both worlds.
    You aren't going far enough. That list looks like reforms but in practice is just cuts. You say "go back to work" but the jobs aren't there, and the few who find a job quickly experience why in work benefits are so well used - work doesn't pay the bills.

    Unless you reimagine the welfare state in its entirety and make some surgical cuts to the cost of living, what you proposed creates a massive recession as circulating cash collapses which buggers local economies and makes the crumbling ruins of our towns collapse even faster.
    There's around 750k vacancies in the country. The idea that there's not enough jobs out there for people to do is absurd. It's just that the layabout on PIP pretending to be sad doesn't want to do the jobs that are available at their skill level. You seem comfortable with allowing people to just opt out of working and living with their hands in our pockets off welfare, I'm not. The nation needs a solid decade of tough love the same as Argentina is getting now. We've lived beyond our means for far too many years, the state is bloated with people who sit at home pretending to work collecting £40-50k salaries and huge pensions and the state pension is paid to people like my parents who literally don't need it, I think they have a six figure household income, they both get whatever the state pension is which makes absolutely no sense to me. There's better uses for that ~£20k than giving it to people who earn as much as that.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,627
    Northumberland ended Con 28, Reform 23, Labour 8, Ind 7, Lib Dem 3, Green 2. A decent Conservative result.

    But, Reform look set to take Staffs and Lincs
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,961
    Roger said:

    It feels like they've tilted England on it's side and all the fascists have rolled down towards the East coast

    Reform voters are not fascists.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,839
    nico67 said:

    Taz said:

    FPT

    < blockquote class="Quote" rel="Taz">

    nico67 said:

    The problem with a Tory Reform pact is the notion that you can just add their vote totals together .

    The Tories would lose some of their voters who won’t support a pact . And there would be large tactical voting against any Tory Reform candidates .

    Many Reform voters are lapsed Labour voters. Certainly in my area. They won’t want to vote Tory either. Their voting Reform partly as NOTA and partly for the reasons Rochdale outlined, certainly around here. They’re not all thick, stupid, gullible, racist. Many just want a better life, tidier streets, less petty crime, less potholes and some civic pride.

    Reform may surprise on the upside (trademark PB) or not, but in Durham labour were shit, the coalition were shit, so why not give them a go.

    At the moment they don’t have sole charge of any councils . I hope they win at least one so can put their plans into operation and then can be judged . We’ll see where the cuts are going to happen and what locals think of them .

    I half suspect Reform will win a council possibly Kent (for obvious reasons which are irrelevant to the election that has just been fought). And will then discover that all the council's money is spent on legally required items (social care, planning, libraries, bins) so there is very little they can do.

    Hence Reform will fail the way every other council will as social care eats more and more of the total budget up and nothing can be improved.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,412
    Omnium said:

    Why on earth do Labour put Ellie Reeves on to talk for them ? She;s appalling.

    She read law, Labour have concluded the country loves a lawyer.

    Labour's biggest ever majorities have all been won by lawyers.
    She might as well come on TV and just bleat four legs good two legs bad

    Brainless.
    No doubt has the CV for the TV.

    I always wondered why they put forwards the Eagle sisters too.
    It's a hospital pass, having to face the questions over an appalling performance.

    It was Cleverly's gig at the last election, and I have some respect for whoever volunteers to go over the top into the guns. A lot just go to ground.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,739
    edited May 2
    Foxy said:

    Omnium said:

    Why on earth do Labour put Ellie Reeves on to talk for them ? She;s appalling.

    She read law, Labour have concluded the country loves a lawyer.

    Labour's biggest ever majorities have all been won by lawyers.
    She might as well come on TV and just bleat four legs good two legs bad

    Brainless.
    No doubt has the CV for the TV.

    I always wondered why they put forwards the Eagle sisters too.
    It's a hospital pass, having to face the questions over an appalling performance.

    It was Cleverly's gig at the last election, and I have some respect for whoever volunteers to go over the top into the guns. A lot just go to ground.
    Cleverly is keeping a very low profile these days. Is he waiting for when the ball spills out the back of the scrum?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,563
    I think the Tories are probably finished.

    I think they're just totally boxed in and socially incapable of squaring the circle.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,739

    I think the Tories are probably finished.

    I think they're just totally boxed in and socially incapable of squaring the circle.

    Also lacking in talent.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,359
    Who did worst at the polls?

    The Greens were odds-on favourites to win the West of England mayoralty, led opinion polls, but finished third behind Labour and Reform.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,873

    MaxPB said:

    nico67 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?
    Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.
    Which party is going to be brave enough to end the triple lock ? My answer none .
    It's not just the state pension, public sector pensions need a 30-40% haircut too. In too many areas we're living well beyond our means and our welfare state is far, far beyond a safety net. Cut a million people from state employment to take us back to 2017, taper the state pension for higher rate tax payers, merge NI and income tax so that non-working income is taxed at the same rate as working income, cut to £2k the cash ISA allowance, push through a 30-40% haircut for defined benefit pensions (even for people currently receiving them), introduce much, much tougher criteria to receive disability benefits and exclude all but 5% of the most serious mental health cases by default. The rest can go back to work or live on £450 per month or whatever UC is for unemployed people. Also get rid of UC, move back to the old system if JSA and ESA, UC is an experiment that hasn't worked, it's just encouraged people to game the system worse than ever.

    I think if Labour started that programme today by the end of the parliament we could be in a position to actually pay front line service staff more and attract better quality candidates for teachers, police, nurses etc...

    What we have now is an underfunded and hugely over funded state at the same time it's literally the worst of both worlds.
    You aren't going far enough. That list looks like reforms but in practice is just cuts. You say "go back to work" but the jobs aren't there, and the few who find a job quickly experience why in work benefits are so well used - work doesn't pay the bills.

    Unless you reimagine the welfare state in its entirety and make some surgical cuts to the cost of living, what you proposed creates a massive recession as circulating cash collapses which buggers local economies and makes the crumbling ruins of our towns collapse even faster.
    The jobs are there - it's just very difficult for anyone who's been out of work a long time to get one because they are seen as "suspect".
    If only that was true. There are few jobs in so many communities. Again, park the national statistics and look at it at a granular level. Speak to people. Look at towns and regions where the deprivation is crushing. You think that we can cure Middlesbrough by tipping people off welfare into all of those jobs which sit unfilled?

    What jobs?
    Maybe, just maybe, if these people weren't allowed to sit on benefits then they might go out and do something else? Start a business? Become deliveroo riders, Uber drivers, we always have a shortage of care workers as you point out on a regular basis, create a training pathway for it.

    People who are sufficiently motivated (facing homelessness) will find a way to get work, even if it starts small with temporary jobs or part time work.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,462

    Seems to be the tories and Labour haven’t quite grasped the mood out there - seemingly continuing in the same way they have for decades and changing nothing.

    Starmer needs to stop the “smash the gangs” rubbish as quite clearly it’s making no difference. Reeves needs to go. And we need to start having an honest conversation about the NHS and whether there is a “better way”.

    Badenoch - well, she’s quite useless. She won’t be around for much longer I think.

    Apart from that, really fascinating time in politics

    IMHO we should restrict what is available on the NHS. Emergency care, obviously, and basic services. But a lot of things we just can't afford, yes, like latest treatments for X, Y, Z. If we have to borrow money to support our standard if living we aren't a wealthy country.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,839

    MaxPB said:

    nico67 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?
    Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.
    Which party is going to be brave enough to end the triple lock ? My answer none .
    It's not just the state pension, public sector pensions need a 30-40% haircut too. In too many areas we're living well beyond our means and our welfare state is far, far beyond a safety net. Cut a million people from state employment to take us back to 2017, taper the state pension for higher rate tax payers, merge NI and income tax so that non-working income is taxed at the same rate as working income, cut to £2k the cash ISA allowance, push through a 30-40% haircut for defined benefit pensions (even for people currently receiving them), introduce much, much tougher criteria to receive disability benefits and exclude all but 5% of the most serious mental health cases by default. The rest can go back to work or live on £450 per month or whatever UC is for unemployed people. Also get rid of UC, move back to the old system if JSA and ESA, UC is an experiment that hasn't worked, it's just encouraged people to game the system worse than ever.

    I think if Labour started that programme today by the end of the parliament we could be in a position to actually pay front line service staff more and attract better quality candidates for teachers, police, nurses etc...

    What we have now is an underfunded and hugely over funded state at the same time it's literally the worst of both worlds.
    You aren't going far enough. That list looks like reforms but in practice is just cuts. You say "go back to work" but the jobs aren't there, and the few who find a job quickly experience why in work benefits are so well used - work doesn't pay the bills.

    Unless you reimagine the welfare state in its entirety and make some surgical cuts to the cost of living, what you proposed creates a massive recession as circulating cash collapses which buggers local economies and makes the crumbling ruins of our towns collapse even faster.
    The jobs are there - it's just very difficult for anyone who's been out of work a long time to get one because they are seen as "suspect".
    There is actually a secondary problem here - at £12.21 an hour staff need to be productive quickly. And an awful lot of unemployed people simply won't be reliable enough for someone to risk the cost of employing them..
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,697
    edited May 2
    Reform majority = 6 votes

    Rejoin EU candidate = 129 votes

    Vote Rejoin, get Reform.

    "Aw, bugger..."
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,961

    (5/5

    I do think Labour run a real risk of thinking statistics will make people feel better even if they don’t. A similar mistake to what the Democrats did.

    They really need to show some progress on things.

    I thought the fly tipping policy was one of their better “unique” ideas.

    I’ve really enjoyed @RochdalePioneers’ analysis as it fills in a lot of blindspots for me and they seem to have got little wrong so far.

    Thanks! Statistics are there to show progress, but they're being misused.

    Two routes Labour could take:
    "We know the NHS is a terrible mess in many areas. We're going as fast as we can to get appointments working everywhere - and national figures show we're making some progress. The Tories left a fragmented and broken NHS which is why the service you get may well still be very poor. We're on it"

    or

    "Thank's to the decisive leadership of Keir Starmer we've actually added half a million GP appointments in 6 months, which has actually transformed the NHS from the broken mess left by the Tories"

    Guess which line Wes Fleetingintelligence is taking?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,772

    I think the Tories are probably finished.

    I think they're just totally boxed in and socially incapable of squaring the circle.

    So they're in a circular box?
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 711
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    nico67 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?
    Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.
    Which party is going to be brave enough to end the triple lock ? My answer none .
    It's not just the state pension, public sector pensions need a 30-40% haircut too. In too many areas we're living well beyond our means and our welfare state is far, far beyond a safety net. Cut a million people from state employment to take us back to 2017, taper the state pension for higher rate tax payers, merge NI and income tax so that non-working income is taxed at the same rate as working income, cut to £2k the cash ISA allowance, push through a 30-40% haircut for defined benefit pensions (even for people currently receiving them), introduce much, much tougher criteria to receive disability benefits and exclude all but 5% of the most serious mental health cases by default. The rest can go back to work or live on £450 per month or whatever UC is for unemployed people. Also get rid of UC, move back to the old system if JSA and ESA, UC is an experiment that hasn't worked, it's just encouraged people to game the system worse than ever.

    I think if Labour started that programme today by the end of the parliament we could be in a position to actually pay front line service staff more and attract better quality candidates for teachers, police, nurses etc...

    What we have now is an underfunded and hugely over funded state at the same time it's literally the worst of both worlds.
    You aren't going far enough. That list looks like reforms but in practice is just cuts. You say "go back to work" but the jobs aren't there, and the few who find a job quickly experience why in work benefits are so well used - work doesn't pay the bills.

    Unless you reimagine the welfare state in its entirety and make some surgical cuts to the cost of living, what you proposed creates a massive recession as circulating cash collapses which buggers local economies and makes the crumbling ruins of our towns collapse even faster.
    There's around 750k vacancies in the country. The idea that there's not enough jobs out there for people to do is absurd. It's just that the layabout on PIP pretending to be sad doesn't want to do the jobs that are available at their skill level. You seem comfortable with allowing people to just opt out of working and living with their hands in our pockets off welfare, I'm not. The nation needs a solid decade of tough love the same as Argentina is getting now. We've lived beyond our means for far too many years, the state is bloated with people who sit at home pretending to work collecting £40-50k salaries and huge pensions and the state pension is paid to people like my parents who literally don't need it, I think they have a six figure household income, they both get whatever the state pension is which makes absolutely no sense to me. There's better uses for that ~£20k than giving it to people who earn as much as that.
    Have no wish to spoil your rant but PIP like UC is for mainly for working people. A lot of PIP is spent on Motability cars to allow people to get to the workplace.

    Sorry for the interruption. Please continue.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,627

    Reform majority = 6 votes

    Rejoin EU candidate = 129 votes

    Vote Rejoin, get Reform.

    "Aw, bugger..."

    “Oh dear. How sad. Never mind.”
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,739
    edited May 2
    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    nico67 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?
    Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.
    Which party is going to be brave enough to end the triple lock ? My answer none .
    It's not just the state pension, public sector pensions need a 30-40% haircut too. In too many areas we're living well beyond our means and our welfare state is far, far beyond a safety net. Cut a million people from state employment to take us back to 2017, taper the state pension for higher rate tax payers, merge NI and income tax so that non-working income is taxed at the same rate as working income, cut to £2k the cash ISA allowance, push through a 30-40% haircut for defined benefit pensions (even for people currently receiving them), introduce much, much tougher criteria to receive disability benefits and exclude all but 5% of the most serious mental health cases by default. The rest can go back to work or live on £450 per month or whatever UC is for unemployed people. Also get rid of UC, move back to the old system if JSA and ESA, UC is an experiment that hasn't worked, it's just encouraged people to game the system worse than ever.

    I think if Labour started that programme today by the end of the parliament we could be in a position to actually pay front line service staff more and attract better quality candidates for teachers, police, nurses etc...

    What we have now is an underfunded and hugely over funded state at the same time it's literally the worst of both worlds.
    You aren't going far enough. That list looks like reforms but in practice is just cuts. You say "go back to work" but the jobs aren't there, and the few who find a job quickly experience why in work benefits are so well used - work doesn't pay the bills.

    Unless you reimagine the welfare state in its entirety and make some surgical cuts to the cost of living, what you proposed creates a massive recession as circulating cash collapses which buggers local economies and makes the crumbling ruins of our towns collapse even faster.
    The jobs are there - it's just very difficult for anyone who's been out of work a long time to get one because they are seen as "suspect".
    There is actually a secondary problem here - at £12.21 an hour staff need to be productive quickly. And an awful lot of unemployed people simply won't be reliable enough for someone to risk the cost of employing them..
    Its not just the £12 / hr, its the likes of the NI and of course Big Ange is adding even more cost with her "reforms".

    Its more like £20 / hr, and say you work on 10% margin, that means that member of staff needs to be making you £200 / hr in gross income.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,443
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    nico67 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?
    Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.
    Which party is going to be brave enough to end the triple lock ? My answer none .
    It's not just the state pension, public sector pensions need a 30-40% haircut too. In too many areas we're living well beyond our means and our welfare state is far, far beyond a safety net. Cut a million people from state employment to take us back to 2017, taper the state pension for higher rate tax payers, merge NI and income tax so that non-working income is taxed at the same rate as working income, cut to £2k the cash ISA allowance, push through a 30-40% haircut for defined benefit pensions (even for people currently receiving them), introduce much, much tougher criteria to receive disability benefits and exclude all but 5% of the most serious mental health cases by default. The rest can go back to work or live on £450 per month or whatever UC is for unemployed people. Also get rid of UC, move back to the old system if JSA and ESA, UC is an experiment that hasn't worked, it's just encouraged people to game the system worse than ever.

    I think if Labour started that programme today by the end of the parliament we could be in a position to actually pay front line service staff more and attract better quality candidates for teachers, police, nurses etc...

    What we have now is an underfunded and hugely over funded state at the same time it's literally the worst of both worlds.
    You aren't going far enough. That list looks like reforms but in practice is just cuts. You say "go back to work" but the jobs aren't there, and the few who find a job quickly experience why in work benefits are so well used - work doesn't pay the bills.

    Unless you reimagine the welfare state in its entirety and make some surgical cuts to the cost of living, what you proposed creates a massive recession as circulating cash collapses which buggers local economies and makes the crumbling ruins of our towns collapse even faster.
    There's around 750k vacancies in the country. The idea that there's not enough jobs out there for people to do is absurd. It's just that the layabout on PIP pretending to be sad doesn't want to do the jobs that are available at their skill level. You seem comfortable with allowing people to just opt out of working and living with their hands in our pockets off welfare, I'm not. The nation needs a solid decade of tough love the same as Argentina is getting now. We've lived beyond our means for far too many years, the state is bloated with people who sit at home pretending to work collecting £40-50k salaries and huge pensions and the state pension is paid to people like my parents who literally don't need it, I think they have a six figure household income, they both get whatever the state pension is which makes absolutely no sense to me. There's better uses for that ~£20k than giving it to people who earn as much as that.
    There are many issues with vacancies and employment: yes, there are many vacancies, but many of these are in locations away from where people live, or require skills that the people do not have. Not everyone can move across the country for work, even if they want: things like family support structures and childcare are where they are.

    I see skills as a massive problem, and whilst improved education is a fix for that, it is also incredibly laggy. For this reason I'd like to see adult education funding significantly increased, and perhaps even some benefits being dependent on it - though that would be massively controversial. But again, that would be laggy.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,770
    edited May 2

    Who did worst at the polls?

    The Greens were odds-on favourites to win the West of England mayoralty, led opinion polls, but finished third behind Labour and Reform.

    Based on my early analysis I think Find Out Now did worst.

    A modest and self effacing chap last week advised backing Labour to win the West of England mayoral race at 9/2.

    Ladbrokes have some markets up on the various mayoral races (including ones not in the screenshot) and based on these polls from YouGov I wonder the value might be backing Labour to win the West of England race

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2025/04/25/dame-andrea-jenkyns-your-time-has-come/
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,371

    I think the Tories are probably finished.

    I think they're just totally boxed in and socially incapable of squaring the circle.

    I expect them to fumble around for a while yet. Some of the results show there are still pockets of Tory support (see Northumberland where they’ve lost loads of seats but are still the largest party).

    But the longer this standoff with Reform goes on for, the more likely it is that they’re eventually going to collapse.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,443

    I think the Tories are probably finished.

    I think they're just totally boxed in and socially incapable of squaring the circle.

    So they're in a circular box?
    A turret?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,432

    I think the Tories are probably finished.

    I think they're just totally boxed in and socially incapable of squaring the circle.

    Remember the advice on fighting a war on two fronts?

    Don't.

    Once the Conservatives failed to strangle Faragism at birth, something like this was fairly likely to be the endpoint.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,066

    (5/5

    I do think Labour run a real risk of thinking statistics will make people feel better even if they don’t. A similar mistake to what the Democrats did.

    They really need to show some progress on things.

    I thought the fly tipping policy was one of their better “unique” ideas.

    I have been watching some of Rory Sutherland talks recently, politicians at the moment seem to do the opposite of any advice he would give to market your ideas better.
    The 'market in ideas' depends on the historic situation. Reform, Green and LD can do this in the pure form of ideas not having to be tested by recent or past performance in national government.

    The Tory situation is currently hopeless - with neither ideas, good communication to us nor articulation of principle and a terrible track record and no-one listening - and this will take time or a party revolution to alter.

    With Labour really only actual current delivery and competence and top quality communication are going to count. They are middling at best in all three; Runcorn etc shows, I think, only how firm is the 'anyone but Reform' vote.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,770

    Foxy said:

    Omnium said:

    Why on earth do Labour put Ellie Reeves on to talk for them ? She;s appalling.

    She read law, Labour have concluded the country loves a lawyer.

    Labour's biggest ever majorities have all been won by lawyers.
    She might as well come on TV and just bleat four legs good two legs bad

    Brainless.
    No doubt has the CV for the TV.

    I always wondered why they put forwards the Eagle sisters too.
    It's a hospital pass, having to face the questions over an appalling performance.

    It was Cleverly's gig at the last election, and I have some respect for whoever volunteers to go over the top into the guns. A lot just go to ground.
    Cleverly is keeping a very low profile these days. Is he waiting for when the ball spills out the back of the scrum?
    I know he's thinking of running for Mayor of London, under FPTP he could win with circa 22% of the vote.

    That said he's got to wait three years but If the ball came loose from the back of the scrum before then.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,961
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    nico67 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?
    Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.
    Which party is going to be brave enough to end the triple lock ? My answer none .
    It's not just the state pension, public sector pensions need a 30-40% haircut too. In too many areas we're living well beyond our means and our welfare state is far, far beyond a safety net. Cut a million people from state employment to take us back to 2017, taper the state pension for higher rate tax payers, merge NI and income tax so that non-working income is taxed at the same rate as working income, cut to £2k the cash ISA allowance, push through a 30-40% haircut for defined benefit pensions (even for people currently receiving them), introduce much, much tougher criteria to receive disability benefits and exclude all but 5% of the most serious mental health cases by default. The rest can go back to work or live on £450 per month or whatever UC is for unemployed people. Also get rid of UC, move back to the old system if JSA and ESA, UC is an experiment that hasn't worked, it's just encouraged people to game the system worse than ever.

    I think if Labour started that programme today by the end of the parliament we could be in a position to actually pay front line service staff more and attract better quality candidates for teachers, police, nurses etc...

    What we have now is an underfunded and hugely over funded state at the same time it's literally the worst of both worlds.
    You aren't going far enough. That list looks like reforms but in practice is just cuts. You say "go back to work" but the jobs aren't there, and the few who find a job quickly experience why in work benefits are so well used - work doesn't pay the bills.

    Unless you reimagine the welfare state in its entirety and make some surgical cuts to the cost of living, what you proposed creates a massive recession as circulating cash collapses which buggers local economies and makes the crumbling ruins of our towns collapse even faster.
    The jobs are there - it's just very difficult for anyone who's been out of work a long time to get one because they are seen as "suspect".
    If only that was true. There are few jobs in so many communities. Again, park the national statistics and look at it at a granular level. Speak to people. Look at towns and regions where the deprivation is crushing. You think that we can cure Middlesbrough by tipping people off welfare into all of those jobs which sit unfilled?

    What jobs?
    Maybe, just maybe, if these people weren't allowed to sit on benefits then they might go out and do something else? Start a business? Become deliveroo riders, Uber drivers, we always have a shortage of care workers as you point out on a regular basis, create a training pathway for it.

    People who are sufficiently motivated (facing homelessness) will find a way to get work, even if it starts small with temporary jobs or part time work.
    You're singing to the choir. I've started 3 businesses and I'm working on a 4th. This isn't about thrusting young entrepreneurs like me and thee.

    As any business owner will tell you, running a business is an opportunity to get kicked in the nads repeatedly. You have to have a perverse desire for pain to do it - and so many small businesses in their growth phase do not make enough profits to pay their own bills, never mind a salary which pays the employee's bills.

    As for Deliveroo etc, these are transitory and illusory. Non-businesses which won't be here long term as there's no way to make an army of slaves business viable on modern wages. All we're seeing now is the battle of VC investors to bankrupt the competition (the collect underpants phase) before they go bust themselves.

    Like you I want more capitalism in action. Businesses are great, but you can't just shove people onto the street and say "start a business". Because we've already seen that in action in the form of our national crime wave.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,437
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    nico67 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?
    Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.
    Which party is going to be brave enough to end the triple lock ? My answer none .
    It's not just the state pension, public sector pensions need a 30-40% haircut too. In too many areas we're living well beyond our means and our welfare state is far, far beyond a safety net. Cut a million people from state employment to take us back to 2017, taper the state pension for higher rate tax payers, merge NI and income tax so that non-working income is taxed at the same rate as working income, cut to £2k the cash ISA allowance, push through a 30-40% haircut for defined benefit pensions (even for people currently receiving them), introduce much, much tougher criteria to receive disability benefits and exclude all but 5% of the most serious mental health cases by default. The rest can go back to work or live on £450 per month or whatever UC is for unemployed people. Also get rid of UC, move back to the old system if JSA and ESA, UC is an experiment that hasn't worked, it's just encouraged people to game the system worse than ever.

    I think if Labour started that programme today by the end of the parliament we could be in a position to actually pay front line service staff more and attract better quality candidates for teachers, police, nurses etc...

    What we have now is an underfunded and hugely over funded state at the same time it's literally the worst of both worlds.
    You aren't going far enough. That list looks like reforms but in practice is just cuts. You say "go back to work" but the jobs aren't there, and the few who find a job quickly experience why in work benefits are so well used - work doesn't pay the bills.

    Unless you reimagine the welfare state in its entirety and make some surgical cuts to the cost of living, what you proposed creates a massive recession as circulating cash collapses which buggers local economies and makes the crumbling ruins of our towns collapse even faster.
    The jobs are there - it's just very difficult for anyone who's been out of work a long time to get one because they are seen as "suspect".
    If only that was true. There are few jobs in so many communities. Again, park the national statistics and look at it at a granular level. Speak to people. Look at towns and regions where the deprivation is crushing. You think that we can cure Middlesbrough by tipping people off welfare into all of those jobs which sit unfilled?

    What jobs?
    Maybe, just maybe, if these people weren't allowed to sit on benefits then they might go out and do something else? Start a business? Become deliveroo riders, Uber drivers, we always have a shortage of care workers as you point out on a regular basis, create a training pathway for it.

    People who are sufficiently motivated (facing homelessness) will find a way to get work, even if it starts small with temporary jobs or part time work.
    There are 300k+ people in England who haven’t found homelessness enough of a motivation to start a business. What went wrong there?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,908

    I think the Tories are probably finished.

    I think they're just totally boxed in and socially incapable of squaring the circle.

    So they're in a circular box?
    A turret?
    A hatbox.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,270
    algarkirk said:

    Why on earth do Labour put Ellie Reeves on to talk for them ? She;s appalling.

    Sister - Rachel Reeves, Labour MP
    Husband - John Cryer, former Labour MP
    Father in law - Bob Cryer, former Labour MP
    Mother in law - Ann Cryer, former Labour MP
    You missed out her descent from Alfred the Great, Edward III via the Beauforts, Charlemagne, Rollo and Pedro the Cruel.
    Regular PB’ers of at least median IQ will know that those, unlike having a family stuffed with Labour MPs, are all ten a penny….
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,371
    edited May 2
    To eek’s comment upthread re Reform running councils (quote formatting has has gone away for me)

    That will go one of two ways. Remember that for populists it is always someone else’s fault. If they can’t do much of any note because it’s legally required, they’ll make loud noises about the fact that they need to change the law to allow them to do so.

    It doesn’t necessarily work as a strategy - and I said upthread it’s still an opportunity for the other parties to put them under some genuine scrutiny now - but that surely has to be the way they’ll play it. And it might work.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,943

    I think the Tories are probably finished.

    I think they're just totally boxed in and socially incapable of squaring the circle.

    Remember the advice on fighting a war on two fronts?

    Don't.

    Once the Conservatives failed to strangle Faragism at birth, something like this was fairly likely to be the endpoint.
    Obviously the danger for them is that they get squashed by Reform, and that when the Reform bubble bursts Labour will be the beneficiary.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,558
    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    nico67 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?
    Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.
    Which party is going to be brave enough to end the triple lock ? My answer none .
    It's not just the state pension, public sector pensions need a 30-40% haircut too. In too many areas we're living well beyond our means and our welfare state is far, far beyond a safety net. Cut a million people from state employment to take us back to 2017, taper the state pension for higher rate tax payers, merge NI and income tax so that non-working income is taxed at the same rate as working income, cut to £2k the cash ISA allowance, push through a 30-40% haircut for defined benefit pensions (even for people currently receiving them), introduce much, much tougher criteria to receive disability benefits and exclude all but 5% of the most serious mental health cases by default. The rest can go back to work or live on £450 per month or whatever UC is for unemployed people. Also get rid of UC, move back to the old system if JSA and ESA, UC is an experiment that hasn't worked, it's just encouraged people to game the system worse than ever.

    I think if Labour started that programme today by the end of the parliament we could be in a position to actually pay front line service staff more and attract better quality candidates for teachers, police, nurses etc...

    What we have now is an underfunded and hugely over funded state at the same time it's literally the worst of both worlds.
    You aren't going far enough. That list looks like reforms but in practice is just cuts. You say "go back to work" but the jobs aren't there, and the few who find a job quickly experience why in work benefits are so well used - work doesn't pay the bills.

    Unless you reimagine the welfare state in its entirety and make some surgical cuts to the cost of living, what you proposed creates a massive recession as circulating cash collapses which buggers local economies and makes the crumbling ruins of our towns collapse even faster.
    The jobs are there - it's just very difficult for anyone who's been out of work a long time to get one because they are seen as "suspect".
    There is actually a secondary problem here - at £12.21 an hour staff need to be productive quickly. And an awful lot of unemployed people simply won't be reliable enough for someone to risk the cost of employing them..
    £12.21 is only the start.

    By the time you add on employers NI, holiday pay, sick pay, employers pension contributions and any training costs then you're looking at over £16 per hour cost to the employer.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,246
    edited May 2
    AnneJGP said:

    Seems to be the tories and Labour haven’t quite grasped the mood out there - seemingly continuing in the same way they have for decades and changing nothing.

    Starmer needs to stop the “smash the gangs” rubbish as quite clearly it’s making no difference. Reeves needs to go. And we need to start having an honest conversation about the NHS and whether there is a “better way”.

    Badenoch - well, she’s quite useless. She won’t be around for much longer I think.

    Apart from that, really fascinating time in politics

    IMHO we should restrict what is available on the NHS. Emergency care, obviously, and basic services. But a lot of things we just can't afford, yes, like latest treatments for X, Y, Z. If we have to borrow money to support our standard if living we aren't a wealthy country.
    I think the brutal but necessary action is to freeze hospital spending in nominal terms until it represents the same proportion of health spending as it did 20 years ago. Tighten up QALYs and revert the emphasis to public health and primary care.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,993
    Sean_F said:

    Northumberland ended Con 28, Reform 23, Labour 8, Ind 7, Lib Dem 3, Green 2. A decent Conservative result.

    But, Reform look set to take Staffs and Lincs

    Rural Northumberland likely to be fairly resilient though I note Tories actually held on in the towns - Ponteland, Cramlington, Morpeth.

    Reform seem to have done for Labour in the more industrial parts of the county.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,998
    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    nico67 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?
    Growth. Essentially, it can't. We can't afford the level of welfare we're currently paying for - we've basically got UBI for anyone who can pass a PIP and keeping anyone over 65 in clover.
    Which party is going to be brave enough to end the triple lock ? My answer none .
    It's not just the state pension, public sector pensions need a 30-40% haircut too. In too many areas we're living well beyond our means and our welfare state is far, far beyond a safety net. Cut a million people from state employment to take us back to 2017, taper the state pension for higher rate tax payers, merge NI and income tax so that non-working income is taxed at the same rate as working income, cut to £2k the cash ISA allowance, push through a 30-40% haircut for defined benefit pensions (even for people currently receiving them), introduce much, much tougher criteria to receive disability benefits and exclude all but 5% of the most serious mental health cases by default. The rest can go back to work or live on £450 per month or whatever UC is for unemployed people. Also get rid of UC, move back to the old system if JSA and ESA, UC is an experiment that hasn't worked, it's just encouraged people to game the system worse than ever.

    A mix of good and practicable ideas, there. Just a shame that few of the good ones are practicable and few of the practicable ones are any good…. ;)
    Which are both good and practicable, then ?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,270
    edited May 2
    eek said:

    nico67 said:

    Taz said:

    FPT

    < blockquote class="Quote" rel="Taz">

    nico67 said:

    The problem with a Tory Reform pact is the notion that you can just add their vote totals together .

    The Tories would lose some of their voters who won’t support a pact . And there would be large tactical voting against any Tory Reform candidates .

    Many Reform voters are lapsed Labour voters. Certainly in my area. They won’t want to vote Tory either. Their voting Reform partly as NOTA and partly for the reasons Rochdale outlined, certainly around here. They’re not all thick, stupid, gullible, racist. Many just want a better life, tidier streets, less petty crime, less potholes and some civic pride.

    Reform may surprise on the upside (trademark PB) or not, but in Durham labour were shit, the coalition were shit, so why not give them a go.

    At the moment they don’t have sole charge of any councils . I hope they win at least one so can put their plans into operation and then can be judged . We’ll see where the cuts are going to happen and what locals think of them .
    I half suspect Reform will win a council possibly Kent (for obvious reasons which are irrelevant to the election that has just been fought). And will then discover that all the council's money is spent on legally required items (social care, planning, libraries, bins) so there is very little they can do.

    Hence Reform will fail the way every other council will as social care eats more and more of the total budget up and nothing can be improved.

    - Quote break here - not mine above
    -
    Kent is about to be abolished, so not the best example
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,437

    I think the Tories are probably finished.

    I think they're just totally boxed in and socially incapable of squaring the circle.

    So they're in a circular box?
    A flying saucer, being probed by aliens.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,270
    edited May 2

    Reform majority = 6 votes

    Rejoin EU candidate = 129 votes

    Vote Rejoin, get Reform.

    "Aw, bugger..."

    People who care about Brexit that much were hardly likely to vote Labour anyway
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