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Political betting is being blamed for the Tories losing control of every council tonight

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  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,591
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    This is the second-closest election I've ever observed after Winchester 1997 was which was a 2 vote win by the LDs, although that was a general election.

    It was contested by the Tories, a by-election was called, but the LDs won by quite a massive margin second time around!
    Whatever happened to the winning Liberal Democrat MP?
    I can remember someone posting on this site:

    “OMG, I’ve just found out what he paid extra for!”
    My vocabulary expanded. Although I must confess, I've not yet found the need to use the word in question.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,567
    The Tory vote in Doncaster looks surprisingly high.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,631
    That’s three close shaves for Labour. Reform have won the Greater Lincolnshire mayoralty, although it is yet to be announced.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,570
    tlg86 said:

    The Tory vote in Doncaster looks surprisingly high.

    Popular Tory candidate costs Reform the mayoralty.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,740
    Sean_F said:

    That’s three close shaves for Labour. Reform have won the Greater Lincolnshire mayoralty, although it is yet to be announced.

    Ultimately, a win is a win, particularly when you are in government. The more things you can hang onto the better for when the big show comes around.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,570
    edited May 2
    Economist article which indirectly explains why Farage & co are doing well.

    "Police forces have stepped back from dealing with petty crime: shoplifting has octupled over the past decade; a well-oiled network ferries stolen phones to shopping malls in Shenzhen within a fortnight. Prosecution rates have plummeted and the prisons are full. The National Health Service (NHS) rations care, with waiting-lists running into the millions. Roads are crumbling faster than local councils can fix them.
    Behind each of these woes lies a shift in the priorities of the state, which has slowly been reshaped over the past decade or two. Years of feeble economic growth and yo-yoing austerity have led to a country-size triage operation. Urgent needs are still met, but only by neglecting the day-to-day basics that keep the governed consenting. This “state of last resort” stretches from the NHS to the asylum system, but is starkest in street-level services and policing." (£)

    https://www.economist.com/leaders/2025/05/01/britains-social-contract-is-fraying
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,580
    tlg86 said:

    The Tory vote in Doncaster looks surprisingly high.

    I noted that Doncaster's history with the English Democrats might suppress Reform in a place that, on the face of it, they'd be favourites in on a good night.

    Not sure I foresaw that as a Tory surge though!
  • MJWMJW Posts: 2,018

    Sean_F said:

    That’s three close shaves for Labour. Reform have won the Greater Lincolnshire mayoralty, although it is yet to be announced.

    Ultimately, a win is a win, particularly when you are in government. The more things you can hang onto the better for when the big show comes around.
    Early days, but Labour appear to be getting quite lucky in terms of dodging the kind of absolute shocker that would define the night as disastrous rather than a merely bad one currently unpopular governments have, without necessarily being toast. Even Runcorn being close makes it easier to gloss over a bit ('could have gone either way, will be different in a GE') than a significant Reform majority would.

    Which is terrible news for Badenoch, as it would make a Tory wipeout the headline story of the night. I'm not sure we've ever seen an opposition in such dire straits.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,273
    Reform falling just short everywhere - with the by-election to follow?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,721
    Reading through all these comments the LDs seem notably absent - saving it all up for the ones being counted later today i guess.

    Labour clinging on in a few places would be a great result for them - councillors are many but mayors are high profile. And clinging on at a by-election saved Starmer's early leadership.

    Tory predictions round my way varied but were not too great for Reform - the overnight results may make the former more nervous.
  • vikvik Posts: 306
    IanB2 said:

    Reform falling just short everywhere - with the by-election to follow?

    Stop the Count!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,570
    IanB2 said:

    Reform falling just short everywhere - with the by-election to follow?

    They haven't fallen short in Lincolnshire.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,273
    From the Guardian, just out:

    We’ve just been told that the recount has almost been completed but it has thrown up a number of “doubtful” ballot papers that now need to be assessed by the candidates.

    Earlier, we had been told that as few as four ballot papers had been deemed in doubt - before they were then accepted as valid Reform UK votes. Now it appears that more than four ballot papers are in doubt.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,567
    We're now at the hanging chad stage of the count in Runcorn and Helsby.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,721
    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    Ratters said:

    This is going to be a dreadful election for Labour and the Tories isn't it? And Reform's first real mark on local councils.

    I wonder if there will end up many Reform Vs Lib Dem first and second places? My instinct is that they largely inhabit mutually exclusive areas, but there must be a middle ground somewhere and they end up #1 and #2...

    The entirety of metropolitan France is effectively Reform vs Lib Dem (well not strictly the entirety, but a lot of it) so it’s quite possible. So is Poland, so is Italy, and so of course is Canada.

    The Lib Dems have an opportunity to represent the Macronist globalist liberal centre. I can feel the retching from parts of this site already. What used to be known as the Blairites and Cameroons, but ideally without the authoritarian instinct of both of those. To do so they must shed the beard and sandal image.
    That is because Macron's party is now the main non populist right party in France, albeit in the last French legislative election Melenchon's left of centre block came first, Macron's centrist block (who ended up governing with the centre right LRs) second and Le Pen's block third.

    Poland is centre right v nationalist right, the Democratic Party in Italy are more centre left than the LDs as the main opponents to Meloni's block (though there are some smaller parties like Renzi's closer to the LDs ideologically). Canada is basically a merged Conservative and Reform party v a LD party now, their Labour party, the NDP near wiped out on Monday
    This reinforces where I think things are going:

    - A centre-right/left party representing multilateralism, liberalism, free trade, capitalism, some degree of social reform but anti-revolution and virulently anti-Putin
    - A populist, nationalist right wing party with a strong anti-immigration and anti-woke platform, with a mildly pro-Russian foreign policy
    - A radical left party with elements of anti-Semitism, pacifism and eco-zealotry
    - localist, regionalist and separatist identity parties

    The challenge for the Lib Dems and Labour is which occupies the space of the first category. The challenge for the Tories is do they try to occupy the first, or the second.
    An interesting post and list. Could be right.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,567
    kle4 said:

    Reading through all these comments the LDs seem notably absent - saving it all up for the ones being counted later today i guess.

    Labour clinging on in a few places would be a great result for them - councillors are many but mayors are high profile. And clinging on at a by-election saved Starmer's early leadership.

    Tory predictions round my way varied but were not too great for Reform - the overnight results may make the former more nervous.

    The cancelling of some county council elections was terrible for the Lib Dems.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,721
    IanB2 said:

    From the Guardian, just out:

    We’ve just been told that the recount has almost been completed but it has thrown up a number of “doubtful” ballot papers that now need to be assessed by the candidates.

    Earlier, we had been told that as few as four ballot papers had been deemed in doubt - before they were then accepted as valid Reform UK votes. Now it appears that more than four ballot papers are in doubt.

    4 would be very low for doubtfuls in fairness.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,570
    edited May 2
    Sky News reporting that originally Labour were ahead by 10 votes before it changed to Reform ahead by 4 votes, but now apparently there has been a slight change which has not particularly pleased Reform.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,721
    MJW said:

    Sean_F said:

    That’s three close shaves for Labour. Reform have won the Greater Lincolnshire mayoralty, although it is yet to be announced.

    Ultimately, a win is a win, particularly when you are in government. The more things you can hang onto the better for when the big show comes around.
    Early days, but Labour appear to be getting quite lucky in terms of dodging the kind of absolute shocker that would define the night as disastrous rather than a merely bad one currently unpopular governments have, without necessarily being toast. Even Runcorn being close makes it easier to gloss over a bit ('could have gone either way, will be different in a GE') than a significant Reform majority would.

    Which is terrible news for Badenoch, as it would make a Tory wipeout the headline story of the night. I'm not sure we've ever seen an opposition in such dire straits.
    Yes, a few high profile wins and the low number of councillors to lose means Labour get a pass.

    Badenoch may be cooked. Jenrick will be so upset.

    Still don't see how they cut a deal with Reform though - they want to replace the Tories and a merger or alliance might cost them ex Labour votes.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,740
    Andy_JS said:

    Sky News reporting that originally Labour were ahead by 10 votes before it changed to Reform ahead by 4 votes, but now apparently there has been a slight change which has not particularly pleased Reform.

    Stop the steal....somebody get the Four Seasons (Gardeners) on the phone.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,570
    tlg86 said:

    We're now at the hanging chad stage of the count in Runcorn and Helsby.

    Thank goodness there aren't any hanging chads.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,273
    edited May 2
    Starmer already has his ‘Westminster and Wandsworth’ story; if they can sneak the by-election it doesn’t really matter for him what happens in the locals, with relatively few Labour seats at stake anyway.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,740
    All three mayoral positions that Labour have won tonight have been won on low shares of the vote.

    The party won just 30% in North Tyneside and just 25% in both the West of England and Doncaster.

    In all three contests, the first three candidates got more than 20% of the vote.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,273
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    From the Guardian, just out:

    We’ve just been told that the recount has almost been completed but it has thrown up a number of “doubtful” ballot papers that now need to be assessed by the candidates.

    Earlier, we had been told that as few as four ballot papers had been deemed in doubt - before they were then accepted as valid Reform UK votes. Now it appears that more than four ballot papers are in doubt.

    4 would be very low for doubtfuls in fairness.
    For sure. But most of them will be blanks or clear Xs in more than one box - the number that are genuinely doubtful, in that you can credibly argue it both ways, is usually tiny (or none).
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,570
    Let's be honest: although a fairly close result is fun, we really didn't need a result which oscillates between 4 votes ahead for one party and 10 votes ahead for another one in the current febrile political environment.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,565
    Andy_JS said:

    Just voted. Didn't go over to the dark side, despite temptation.

    Isn't this very normal for you?

    You always talk Right, but vote Left.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,500
    Good morning, everyone.

    Just seen there's a by-election recount. Regardless of the ultimate outcome, thanks to those who tipped Labour at 3.5, as that was clearly value.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,944
    edited May 2
    Morning all!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,570
    Farage has appeared on walkabout.
  • scampi25scampi25 Posts: 109
    Looks like Reform have won.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,721
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    From the Guardian, just out:

    We’ve just been told that the recount has almost been completed but it has thrown up a number of “doubtful” ballot papers that now need to be assessed by the candidates.

    Earlier, we had been told that as few as four ballot papers had been deemed in doubt - before they were then accepted as valid Reform UK votes. Now it appears that more than four ballot papers are in doubt.

    4 would be very low for doubtfuls in fairness.
    For sure. But most of them will be blanks or clear Xs in more than one box - the number that are genuinely doubtful, in that you can credibly argue it both ways, is usually tiny (or none).
    Yes, other than the aforementioned penis ballots (and ive seen anyone object to them being counted) few doubtfuls are really unclear.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 2,018
    kle4 said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    Ratters said:

    This is going to be a dreadful election for Labour and the Tories isn't it? And Reform's first real mark on local councils.

    I wonder if there will end up many Reform Vs Lib Dem first and second places? My instinct is that they largely inhabit mutually exclusive areas, but there must be a middle ground somewhere and they end up #1 and #2...

    The entirety of metropolitan France is effectively Reform vs Lib Dem (well not strictly the entirety, but a lot of it) so it’s quite possible. So is Poland, so is Italy, and so of course is Canada.

    The Lib Dems have an opportunity to represent the Macronist globalist liberal centre. I can feel the retching from parts of this site already. What used to be known as the Blairites and Cameroons, but ideally without the authoritarian instinct of both of those. To do so they must shed the beard and sandal image.
    That is because Macron's party is now the main non populist right party in France, albeit in the last French legislative election Melenchon's left of centre block came first, Macron's centrist block (who ended up governing with the centre right LRs) second and Le Pen's block third.

    Poland is centre right v nationalist right, the Democratic Party in Italy are more centre left than the LDs as the main opponents to Meloni's block (though there are some smaller parties like Renzi's closer to the LDs ideologically). Canada is basically a merged Conservative and Reform party v a LD party now, their Labour party, the NDP near wiped out on Monday
    This reinforces where I think things are going:

    - A centre-right/left party representing multilateralism, liberalism, free trade, capitalism, some degree of social reform but anti-revolution and virulently anti-Putin
    - A populist, nationalist right wing party with a strong anti-immigration and anti-woke platform, with a mildly pro-Russian foreign policy
    - A radical left party with elements of anti-Semitism, pacifism and eco-zealotry
    - localist, regionalist and separatist identity parties

    The challenge for the Lib Dems and Labour is which occupies the space of the first category. The challenge for the Tories is do they try to occupy the first, or the second.
    An interesting post and list. Could be right.
    Weirdly though, it may not be that much of a challenge for Labour/Lib Dems as their votes are so regionally complimentary. Providing Labour goes into a GE having not done too much stuff that absolutely enrages Lib Dems they can almost run parallel campaigns implicitly endorsing the other as the anti-right-wing populist option.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,570
    Well it looks like Ref have definitely won.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,721
    Andy_JS said:

    Let's be honest: although a fairly close result is fun, we really didn't need a result which oscillates between 4 votes ahead for one party and 10 votes ahead for another one in the current febrile political environment.

    Disagree, close is usually better than not close even in tense times. We are not (yet) i think at a stage where either side crying foul as a political move would help them.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,565
    kle4 said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    Ratters said:

    This is going to be a dreadful election for Labour and the Tories isn't it? And Reform's first real mark on local councils.

    I wonder if there will end up many Reform Vs Lib Dem first and second places? My instinct is that they largely inhabit mutually exclusive areas, but there must be a middle ground somewhere and they end up #1 and #2...

    The entirety of metropolitan France is effectively Reform vs Lib Dem (well not strictly the entirety, but a lot of it) so it’s quite possible. So is Poland, so is Italy, and so of course is Canada.

    The Lib Dems have an opportunity to represent the Macronist globalist liberal centre. I can feel the retching from parts of this site already. What used to be known as the Blairites and Cameroons, but ideally without the authoritarian instinct of both of those. To do so they must shed the beard and sandal image.
    That is because Macron's party is now the main non populist right party in France, albeit in the last French legislative election Melenchon's left of centre block came first, Macron's centrist block (who ended up governing with the centre right LRs) second and Le Pen's block third.

    Poland is centre right v nationalist right, the Democratic Party in Italy are more centre left than the LDs as the main opponents to Meloni's block (though there are some smaller parties like Renzi's closer to the LDs ideologically). Canada is basically a merged Conservative and Reform party v a LD party now, their Labour party, the NDP near wiped out on Monday
    This reinforces where I think things are going:

    - A centre-right/left party representing multilateralism, liberalism, free trade, capitalism, some degree of social reform but anti-revolution and virulently anti-Putin
    - A populist, nationalist right wing party with a strong anti-immigration and anti-woke platform, with a mildly pro-Russian foreign policy
    - A radical left party with elements of anti-Semitism, pacifism and eco-zealotry
    - localist, regionalist and separatist identity parties

    The challenge for the Lib Dems and Labour is which occupies the space of the first category. The challenge for the Tories is do they try to occupy the first, or the second.
    An interesting post and list. Could be right.
    I'm not sure I much fancy any of those.

    The solution to it would be for the centre-parties to revise their liberal dogma on immigration, take the heat out of socio-cultural matters, generate greater economic growth, and use that to fund better public services. All with much better explanations being made to the public, and absolute respect being shown in understanding their concerns.

    I suspect it's what Starmer is trying to do.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,570
    Perhaps the recount changed it from 4 to 6 votes in Ref's favour.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,944
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    From the Guardian, just out:

    We’ve just been told that the recount has almost been completed but it has thrown up a number of “doubtful” ballot papers that now need to be assessed by the candidates.

    Earlier, we had been told that as few as four ballot papers had been deemed in doubt - before they were then accepted as valid Reform UK votes. Now it appears that more than four ballot papers are in doubt.

    4 would be very low for doubtfuls in fairness.
    For sure. But most of them will be blanks or clear Xs in more than one box - the number that are genuinely doubtful, in that you can credibly argue it both ways, is usually tiny (or none).
    Yes, other than the aforementioned penis ballots (and ive seen anyone object to them being counted) few doubtfuls are really unclear.
    Some witty PBer (ahem) wrote a very hilarious limerick about this when we last discussed it.

    South West Surrey is home to a voter
    Who spoils his ballot with scrota
    And several large cockses
    Spanning various boxes
    Which identifies him as a floater
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 713
    Pulpstar said:

    Aapl reckon they've moved the entire US bound supply chain out of China.
    I guess when you've got hundreds of billions of dollars in the bank you can stick up new factories in India, Vietnam or wherever pretty fast lol

    You can set up new factories pretty quickly if you are moving existing product lines. If you are ordering a new line, it'll take a lot more time. But the point here, is that it hasn't moved to the US where as promised by Lutnick.

    "will result in things like the army of millions and millions of human beings screwing in little screws to make iPhones coming to the US."
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,570
    edited May 2
    The whole attempt to associate Farage with Trump hasn't really worked as far as voters are concerned.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,740
    edited May 2
    Andy_JS said:

    Farage has appeared on walkabout.

    His poor driver must have been bored senseless hiding around the corner all night just in case a quick getaway was required.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,944

    kle4 said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    Ratters said:

    This is going to be a dreadful election for Labour and the Tories isn't it? And Reform's first real mark on local councils.

    I wonder if there will end up many Reform Vs Lib Dem first and second places? My instinct is that they largely inhabit mutually exclusive areas, but there must be a middle ground somewhere and they end up #1 and #2...

    The entirety of metropolitan France is effectively Reform vs Lib Dem (well not strictly the entirety, but a lot of it) so it’s quite possible. So is Poland, so is Italy, and so of course is Canada.

    The Lib Dems have an opportunity to represent the Macronist globalist liberal centre. I can feel the retching from parts of this site already. What used to be known as the Blairites and Cameroons, but ideally without the authoritarian instinct of both of those. To do so they must shed the beard and sandal image.
    That is because Macron's party is now the main non populist right party in France, albeit in the last French legislative election Melenchon's left of centre block came first, Macron's centrist block (who ended up governing with the centre right LRs) second and Le Pen's block third.

    Poland is centre right v nationalist right, the Democratic Party in Italy are more centre left than the LDs as the main opponents to Meloni's block (though there are some smaller parties like Renzi's closer to the LDs ideologically). Canada is basically a merged Conservative and Reform party v a LD party now, their Labour party, the NDP near wiped out on Monday
    This reinforces where I think things are going:

    - A centre-right/left party representing multilateralism, liberalism, free trade, capitalism, some degree of social reform but anti-revolution and virulently anti-Putin
    - A populist, nationalist right wing party with a strong anti-immigration and anti-woke platform, with a mildly pro-Russian foreign policy
    - A radical left party with elements of anti-Semitism, pacifism and eco-zealotry
    - localist, regionalist and separatist identity parties

    The challenge for the Lib Dems and Labour is which occupies the space of the first category. The challenge for the Tories is do they try to occupy the first, or the second.
    An interesting post and list. Could be right.
    I'm not sure I much fancy any of those.

    The solution to it would be for the centre-parties to revise their liberal dogma on immigration, take the heat out of socio-cultural matters, generate greater economic growth, and use that to fund better public services. All with much better explanations being made to the public, and absolute respect being shown in understanding their concerns.

    I suspect it's what Starmer is trying to do.
    I find these concepts rather abstract. What is right wing? What is centrist? A coal mine was described here the day before yesterday as 'unthinkable', but in Germany, a country that is tortured by its right wing past, it is considered regrettable but simply practical. What 'centrism' really is in the UK is a set of previously fashionable, deeply damaging, anti-British, anti-growth, and anti-human being policies. Politics will be defined by a race away from that.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,500
    Andy_JS said:

    The whole attempt to associate Farage with Trump hasn't really worked as far as voters are concerned.

    While I'm paying less attention to politics than I did, has there even been an attempt to associate Farage with Trump? Not on my radar at all.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,570
    edited May 2
    Runcorn & Helsby

    RefUK 12,645 (38.72%)
    Lab 12,639 (38.70%)
    Con 2,341 (7.17%)
    Grn 2,314 (7.09%)
    LD 942 (2.88%)
    Lib 454 (1.39%)
    Ind Williams 363 (1.11%)
    Ind McKay 269 (0.82%)
    Workers 164 (0.50%)
    Rejoin EU 129 (0.40%)
    Loony 128 (0.39%)
    Eng Dem 95 (0.29%)
    SDP 68 (0.21%)
    Volt 54 (0.17%)
    Constitution 50 (0.15%)

    Rejected 85

    Majority 6 (0.02%)

    Total votes 32,655
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,721
    edited May 2
    Andy_JS said:

    The whole attempt to associate Farage with Trump hasn't really worked as far as voters are concerned.

    Your characterisation is a little off. He associates himself with Trump voluntarily(albeit he's sensibly dialed it back), there's no attempt to do so.

    What hasn't worked is attempting to make voters at these elections care about that association.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,944
    Andy_JS said:

    Runcorn & Helsby

    RefUK 12,645
    Lab 12,639
    Con 2,341
    Grn 2,314
    LD 942
    Lib 454
    Ind Williams 363
    Ind McKay 269
    Workers 164
    Rejoin EU 129
    Loony 128
    Eng Dem 95
    SDP 68
    Volt 54
    Constitution 50

    Rejected 85

    Majority 6

    Just rejoice at that news.
  • scampi25scampi25 Posts: 109
    The new MP is speaking very well.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,740
    There are only 17 previous by-elections in which a majority as big as the 35% majority Labour enjoyed has been overturned.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,565

    kle4 said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    Ratters said:

    This is going to be a dreadful election for Labour and the Tories isn't it? And Reform's first real mark on local councils.

    I wonder if there will end up many Reform Vs Lib Dem first and second places? My instinct is that they largely inhabit mutually exclusive areas, but there must be a middle ground somewhere and they end up #1 and #2...

    The entirety of metropolitan France is effectively Reform vs Lib Dem (well not strictly the entirety, but a lot of it) so it’s quite possible. So is Poland, so is Italy, and so of course is Canada.

    The Lib Dems have an opportunity to represent the Macronist globalist liberal centre. I can feel the retching from parts of this site already. What used to be known as the Blairites and Cameroons, but ideally without the authoritarian instinct of both of those. To do so they must shed the beard and sandal image.
    That is because Macron's party is now the main non populist right party in France, albeit in the last French legislative election Melenchon's left of centre block came first, Macron's centrist block (who ended up governing with the centre right LRs) second and Le Pen's block third.

    Poland is centre right v nationalist right, the Democratic Party in Italy are more centre left than the LDs as the main opponents to Meloni's block (though there are some smaller parties like Renzi's closer to the LDs ideologically). Canada is basically a merged Conservative and Reform party v a LD party now, their Labour party, the NDP near wiped out on Monday
    This reinforces where I think things are going:

    - A centre-right/left party representing multilateralism, liberalism, free trade, capitalism, some degree of social reform but anti-revolution and virulently anti-Putin
    - A populist, nationalist right wing party with a strong anti-immigration and anti-woke platform, with a mildly pro-Russian foreign policy
    - A radical left party with elements of anti-Semitism, pacifism and eco-zealotry
    - localist, regionalist and separatist identity parties

    The challenge for the Lib Dems and Labour is which occupies the space of the first category. The challenge for the Tories is do they try to occupy the first, or the second.
    An interesting post and list. Could be right.
    I'm not sure I much fancy any of those.

    The solution to it would be for the centre-parties to revise their liberal dogma on immigration, take the heat out of socio-cultural matters, generate greater economic growth, and use that to fund better public services. All with much better explanations being made to the public, and absolute respect being shown in understanding their concerns.

    I suspect it's what Starmer is trying to do.
    I find these concepts rather abstract. What is right wing? What is centrist? A coal mine was described here the day before yesterday as 'unthinkable', but in Germany, a country that is tortured by its right wing past, it is considered regrettable but simply practical. What 'centrism' really is in the UK is a set of previously fashionable, deeply damaging, anti-British, anti-growth, and anti-human being policies. Politics will be defined by a race away from that.
    Two issues: (1) we are not growing anymore, driving high tax and shitty services and (2) liberal elites still have their taboos, which drives an absolute arrogance towards listening to any dissent.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,570
    Commiserations to the Labour canvassers in this seat, to lose by such a tiny majority must be horrible.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,438
    edited May 2
    Battlebus said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Aapl reckon they've moved the entire US bound supply chain out of China.
    I guess when you've got hundreds of billions of dollars in the bank you can stick up new factories in India, Vietnam or wherever pretty fast lol

    You can set up new factories pretty quickly if you are moving existing product lines. If you are ordering a new line, it'll take a lot more time. But the point here, is that it hasn't moved to the US where as promised by Lutnick.

    "will result in things like the army of millions and millions of human beings screwing in little screws to make iPhones coming to the US."
    The economic risk for the US standing up for Taiwan just slightly dropped - again.
  • Nunu3Nunu3 Posts: 279
    dixiedean said:

    Some monster swings Con to Ref in Broxbourne.
    30%+.

    why is Broxbourne in the home counties so LEAVE/Reform friendly?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,721

    There are only 17 previous by-elections in which a majority as big as the 35% majority Labour enjoyed has been overturned.

    About half of them in the last 5 years?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,721

    kle4 said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    Ratters said:

    This is going to be a dreadful election for Labour and the Tories isn't it? And Reform's first real mark on local councils.

    I wonder if there will end up many Reform Vs Lib Dem first and second places? My instinct is that they largely inhabit mutually exclusive areas, but there must be a middle ground somewhere and they end up #1 and #2...

    The entirety of metropolitan France is effectively Reform vs Lib Dem (well not strictly the entirety, but a lot of it) so it’s quite possible. So is Poland, so is Italy, and so of course is Canada.

    The Lib Dems have an opportunity to represent the Macronist globalist liberal centre. I can feel the retching from parts of this site already. What used to be known as the Blairites and Cameroons, but ideally without the authoritarian instinct of both of those. To do so they must shed the beard and sandal image.
    That is because Macron's party is now the main non populist right party in France, albeit in the last French legislative election Melenchon's left of centre block came first, Macron's centrist block (who ended up governing with the centre right LRs) second and Le Pen's block third.

    Poland is centre right v nationalist right, the Democratic Party in Italy are more centre left than the LDs as the main opponents to Meloni's block (though there are some smaller parties like Renzi's closer to the LDs ideologically). Canada is basically a merged Conservative and Reform party v a LD party now, their Labour party, the NDP near wiped out on Monday
    This reinforces where I think things are going:

    - A centre-right/left party representing multilateralism, liberalism, free trade, capitalism, some degree of social reform but anti-revolution and virulently anti-Putin
    - A populist, nationalist right wing party with a strong anti-immigration and anti-woke platform, with a mildly pro-Russian foreign policy
    - A radical left party with elements of anti-Semitism, pacifism and eco-zealotry
    - localist, regionalist and separatist identity parties

    The challenge for the Lib Dems and Labour is which occupies the space of the first category. The challenge for the Tories is do they try to occupy the first, or the second.
    An interesting post and list. Could be right.
    I'm not sure I much fancy any of those.

    The solution to it would be for the centre-parties to revise their liberal dogma on immigration, take the heat out of socio-cultural matters, generate greater economic growth, and use that to fund better public services. All with much better explanations being made to the public, and absolute respect being shown in understanding their concerns.

    I suspect it's what Starmer is trying to do.
    I find these concepts rather abstract. What is right wing? What is centrist? A coal mine was described here the day before yesterday as 'unthinkable', but in Germany, a country that is tortured by its right wing past, it is considered regrettable but simply practical. What 'centrism' really is in the UK is a set of previously fashionable, deeply damaging, anti-British, anti-growth, and anti-human being policies. Politics will be defined by a race away from that.
    Two issues: (1) we are not growing anymore, driving high tax and shitty services and (2) liberal elites still have their taboos, which drives an absolute arrogance towards listening to any dissent.
    I think that is mostly fair. We're paying more for less, with little prospect of that changing given our own taboos.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,245
    Every vote really does count .

    Labour almost pulled off a miracle but not to be .
  • Nunu3Nunu3 Posts: 279
    Andy_JS said:

    Let's be honest: although a fairly close result is fun, we really didn't need a result which oscillates between 4 votes ahead for one party and 10 votes ahead for another one in the current febrile political environment.

    thats FPTP
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,431
    ...
    Cookie said:

    Taz said:

    Rambling speech from failed candidate.

    Democrats need to move on.

    https://youtu.be/Zw7AeBdulw4?si=hrnNBKoNBBYejBpe

    You may not like her, but the World would be a far safer place if she'd got a couple more percentage points last November.
    The world would be a far better place if the Dems had come up with a candidate with a broader appeal to the American electorate.
    No, you are gaslighting.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,721
    nico67 said:

    Every vote really does count .

    Labour almost pulled off a miracle but not to be .

    It really should not have needed a miracle.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,944

    Andy_JS said:

    Runcorn & Helsby

    RefUK 12,645 (38.72%)
    Lab 12,639 (38.70%)
    Con 2,341 (7.17%)
    Grn 2,314 (7.09%)
    LD 942 (2.88%)
    Lib 454 (1.39%)
    Ind Williams 363 (1.11%)
    Ind McKay 269 (0.82%)
    Workers 164 (0.50%)
    Rejoin EU 129 (0.40%)
    Loony 128 (0.39%)
    Eng Dem 95 (0.29%)
    SDP 68 (0.21%)
    Volt 54 (0.17%)
    Constitution 50 (0.15%)

    Rejected 85

    Majority 6 (0.02%)

    Total votes 32,655

    Those 6 votes will change the narrative today. And Labour were value.
    We have to remind ourselves it was their 16th safest seat. Well done the people who turned out and voted Reform in the face of such an entrenched vote.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,570
    edited May 2
    Starmer didn't campaign in the seat, but difficult to say whether he would have boosted the Labour total or not.
  • Nunu3Nunu3 Posts: 279
    Andy_JS said:

    The whole attempt to associate Farage with Trump hasn't really worked as far as voters are concerned.

    the attempt being done by Farage himself....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,721
    Good thing the result was when the sun had come up - if it was middle of the night Farage might have gone out celebrating and risked a Mike Amesbury incident.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,570
    The number of female MPs has risen from 263 to 264, the highest ever, 40.6% of the total.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,740
    Andy_JS said:

    Starmer didn't campaign in the seat, but difficult to say whether he would have boosted the Labour total or not.

    At one point wasn't it convention that the PM would not do so?
  • Nunu3Nunu3 Posts: 279
    scampi25 said:

    The new MP is speaking very well.

    She must be careful not to outshine Farage.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,740
    Andy_JS said:

    The number of female MPs has risen from 263 to 264, the highest ever, 40.6% of the total.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LS37SNYjg8w
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,245

    nico67 said:

    Every vote really does count .

    Labour almost pulled off a miracle but not to be .

    pulled off a miracle ? One of their safest seats....you make it sound like they were the ones with 35% deficit to make up.

    I am sure it will go back to Labour at the next GE.
    Labour were expected to lose but nearly scraped over the line which would have been a shock.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,721

    Andy_JS said:

    Runcorn & Helsby

    RefUK 12,645 (38.72%)
    Lab 12,639 (38.70%)
    Con 2,341 (7.17%)
    Grn 2,314 (7.09%)
    LD 942 (2.88%)
    Lib 454 (1.39%)
    Ind Williams 363 (1.11%)
    Ind McKay 269 (0.82%)
    Workers 164 (0.50%)
    Rejoin EU 129 (0.40%)
    Loony 128 (0.39%)
    Eng Dem 95 (0.29%)
    SDP 68 (0.21%)
    Volt 54 (0.17%)
    Constitution 50 (0.15%)

    Rejected 85

    Majority 6 (0.02%)

    Total votes 32,655

    Those 6 votes will change the narrative today. And Labour were value.
    We have to remind ourselves it was their 16th safest seat. Well done the people who turned out and voted Reform in the face of such an entrenched vote.
    Turnout was good too, which is positive. Not merely a win due to apathy.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,944

    ...

    Cookie said:

    Taz said:

    Rambling speech from failed candidate.

    Democrats need to move on.

    https://youtu.be/Zw7AeBdulw4?si=hrnNBKoNBBYejBpe

    You may not like her, but the World would be a far safer place if she'd got a couple more percentage points last November.
    The world would be a far better place if the Dems had come up with a candidate with a broader appeal to the American electorate.
    No, you are gaslighting.
    He is really offering good advice.

    Democrats should now try to find a comforting, 1990s-style Mom and apple pie unifying candidate to make the Trump era look like a monstrous freak show. What they seem likelier to do is see any decline in Trump's popularity as an opportunity to get a far more radical agenda through because people have nowhere else to go. Setting up an extremely polarised election where whoever replaces Trump (or Trump himself) can win because people can't stomach what the Democrats are offering.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,570
    edited May 2

    Andy_JS said:

    Starmer didn't campaign in the seat, but difficult to say whether he would have boosted the Labour total or not.

    At one point wasn't it convention that the PM would not do so?
    I believe so. Thought to be undignified or something.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,443
    edited May 2

    kle4 said:

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    Ratters said:

    This is going to be a dreadful election for Labour and the Tories isn't it? And Reform's first real mark on local councils.

    I wonder if there will end up many Reform Vs Lib Dem first and second places? My instinct is that they largely inhabit mutually exclusive areas, but there must be a middle ground somewhere and they end up #1 and #2...

    The entirety of metropolitan France is effectively Reform vs Lib Dem (well not strictly the entirety, but a lot of it) so it’s quite possible. So is Poland, so is Italy, and so of course is Canada.

    The Lib Dems have an opportunity to represent the Macronist globalist liberal centre. I can feel the retching from parts of this site already. What used to be known as the Blairites and Cameroons, but ideally without the authoritarian instinct of both of those. To do so they must shed the beard and sandal image.
    That is because Macron's party is now the main non populist right party in France, albeit in the last French legislative election Melenchon's left of centre block came first, Macron's centrist block (who ended up governing with the centre right LRs) second and Le Pen's block third.

    Poland is centre right v nationalist right, the Democratic Party in Italy are more centre left than the LDs as the main opponents to Meloni's block (though there are some smaller parties like Renzi's closer to the LDs ideologically). Canada is basically a merged Conservative and Reform party v a LD party now, their Labour party, the NDP near wiped out on Monday
    This reinforces where I think things are going:

    - A centre-right/left party representing multilateralism, liberalism, free trade, capitalism, some degree of social reform but anti-revolution and virulently anti-Putin
    - A populist, nationalist right wing party with a strong anti-immigration and anti-woke platform, with a mildly pro-Russian foreign policy
    - A radical left party with elements of anti-Semitism, pacifism and eco-zealotry
    - localist, regionalist and separatist identity parties

    The challenge for the Lib Dems and Labour is which occupies the space of the first category. The challenge for the Tories is do they try to occupy the first, or the second.
    An interesting post and list. Could be right.
    I'm not sure I much fancy any of those.

    The solution to it would be for the centre-parties to revise their liberal dogma on immigration, take the heat out of socio-cultural matters, generate greater economic growth, and use that to fund better public services. All with much better explanations being made to the public, and absolute respect being shown in understanding their concerns.

    I suspect it's what Starmer is trying to do.
    I find these concepts rather abstract. What is right wing? What is centrist? A coal mine was described here the day before yesterday as 'unthinkable', but in Germany, a country that is tortured by its right wing past, it is considered regrettable but simply practical. What 'centrism' really is in the UK is a set of previously fashionable, deeply damaging, anti-British, anti-growth, and anti-human being policies. Politics will be defined by a race away from that.
    Now, now. Be truthful. What I said was 'unthinkable' was coal for power generation. I'm actually in favour of a (relatively) small coal mine or two for fringe uses. Such as steam railways. ;) But not regressing back to using it for power generation, which would require several orders of magnitude more coal extracted.

    We are also not Germany. Their coal production is very different to ours, often using vast open-cast pits to get dirty brown coal. These are very different to the majority of our old, deep, pits - and Germany has stopped 'hard' coal mining, though continue lignite mining.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Germany#/media/File:Fossil_fuel_consumption_in_Germany.svg
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,883
    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,245
    Apparently the WFA and changes to PIP were real issues for Labour both of which were totally self inflicted .
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,944
    kle4 said:

    Good thing the result was when the sun had come up - if it was middle of the night Farage might have gone out celebrating and risked a Mike Amesbury incident.

    Hopefully Labour have been sensible enough to keep Mike away from the sherry.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,107
    Hahahaha

    GET IN
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,107
    Labour are so fucked
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,431

    All three mayoral positions that Labour have won tonight have been won on low shares of the vote.

    The party won just 30% in North Tyneside and just 25% in both the West of England and Doncaster.

    In all three contests, the first three candidates got more than 20% of the vote.

    Essentially Jenrick is right. If he and Farage make a pact one of them becomes PM, the other becomes deputy and Labour have no seats! The future is RefCon!
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,245

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    Definitely. It was certainly far from boring that by election !
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,107
    Historic by-election. We will always remember Runcorn

    Reminds me of some of the early shocking SNP wins. Except the timeline is vastly accelerated
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,570

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,721

    All three mayoral positions that Labour have won tonight have been won on low shares of the vote.

    The party won just 30% in North Tyneside and just 25% in both the West of England and Doncaster.

    In all three contests, the first three candidates got more than 20% of the vote.

    Essentially Jenrick is right. If he and Farage make a pact one of them becomes PM, the other becomes deputy and Labour have no seats! The future is RefCon!
    The problem is in the cutting of a deal. Tories are bigger but Reform are much better motivated and confident.

    And people underestimate how many Tories really dont like Reform. Is it most? Probably not, but it seems to get ignored or assumed to just be fear.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,740
    edited May 2
    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?
    The only way out of everything is growth, but outside of the US (pre-2025) most developed countries have struggled to grow at a consistent rate to outstrip costs of aging population, etc.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,570
    I predicted a 1% Ref win, it was 0.02%. But at least I got the winner right, unlike with the US election.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,431
    kle4 said:

    All three mayoral positions that Labour have won tonight have been won on low shares of the vote.

    The party won just 30% in North Tyneside and just 25% in both the West of England and Doncaster.

    In all three contests, the first three candidates got more than 20% of the vote.

    Essentially Jenrick is right. If he and Farage make a pact one of them becomes PM, the other becomes deputy and Labour have no seats! The future is RefCon!
    The problem is in the cutting of a deal. Tories are bigger but Reform are much better motivated and confident.

    And people underestimate how many Tories really dont like Reform. Is it most? Probably not, but it seems to get ignored or assumed to just be fear.
    If HYUFD is a Tory bellwether he seems cool with Farage as PM and Jenrick as deputy.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,883
    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?
    What do you suggest? How are Reform going to fix it?

    Deal with tax loopholes comprehensively. Make multinationals pay their way.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 713
    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?
    This will be the core issue for the new Reform councils/councillors. How do they achieve their aims when there is no money. Or will the Westminster austerity be replaced by a local (Reform) austerity?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,721

    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?
    What do you suggest? How are Reform going to fix it?

    Deal with tax loopholes comprehensively. Make multinationals pay their way.
    And then they all leave presumably. Tough choices only.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,740
    edited May 2
    If the Tories and Reform did a deal, could we see Labour / Lib Dems also do a deal? And we become more like Germany where in parts of the country parties don't stand against one another e.g Lib Dem have the South West to themselves.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,808
    Battlebus said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?
    This will be the core issue for the new Reform councils/councillors. How do they achieve their aims when there is no money. Or will the Westminster austerity be replaced by a local (Reform) austerity?
    They'll just do what Labour did. No money nothing to do with us it's central government picking on our votes. Vote for a Reform government to fix it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,721
    Battlebus said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don’t envy Labour but the clear message from his support at the last GE and before was that people are done with austerity. To double down on it whilst doing stuff that really upsets middle England, like the war on nature, has been politics at its poorest.

    How can austerity end without raising taxes which are already at a high level?
    This will be the core issue for the new Reform councils/councillors. How do they achieve their aims when there is no money. Or will the Westminster austerity be replaced by a local (Reform) austerity?
    People by and large do not realise how bad local government finances are, they overestimate how much waste remains, and underestimate the impact if we were to pare things back to statutory services only.

    So whether Reform enact tough changes or fall into regular patterns will be interesting.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,808
    Tory voters in Doncaster should be ashamed, they could have scared the crap out of that idiot Miliband.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,740

    Congrats to the new MP for Runcorn and Helsby, and commiserations to the loser. Such a close loss must really hurt.

    Now, any betting as to how long it is before the new MP falls out with Farage? ;)

    Looking at her back story seems like she doesn't shy away from having bust ups when she was a Tory.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,694
    IanB2 said:

    Nunu3 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Let's be honest: although a fairly close result is fun, we really didn't need a result which oscillates between 4 votes ahead for one party and 10 votes ahead for another one in the current febrile political environment.

    thats FPTP
    A sensible Labour Party would be reflecting on the merits of a preferential voting system….
    Yes, Starmer has it within his power to change the voting system. He won't.
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