Political betting is being blamed for the Tories losing control of every council tonight

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  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Andy_JS said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Lucky escape for Labour in Redbridge / Hainault where they win by one vote over an independent.

    Slipped under the radar, had no idea there was a by-election in da North Ilford Ghetto :lol:
    I wonder if this was the same indy who nearly defeated Wes Streeting at the general election?
    No, not a Gaza indy
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Can't see Labour gaining 72 wards based on these early results lol
  • KnightOut
    KnightOut Posts: 169
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Another candidate has arrived here at the Runcorn and Helsby count - and a party leader at that.

    It’s Howling Laud Hope of the Monster Raving Loony Party.

    IIRC he was once elected to a town council in somewhere like Tiverton.
    Bloody hell he is 82 and still doing this lark.
    Does he still spend the whole day drinking in a local Spoons before heading to the count?

    I had a couple of pleasant pints with him on the day of the Tooting By Election a few years back.
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    "Staffordshire County Council
    @StaffordshireCC
    Lichfield – Lichfield Rural East

    Tracey Dougherty, Reform UK: 1197 - ELECTED
    Jennifer Mackintosh, Labour Party: 357
    Andrew Rushton, Lib Dem: 575
    Alan White, Local Conservative: 958

    Reform win from Con."

    https://x.com/StaffordshireCC/status/1918105424101810254
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    Broxbourne splits 4;2 Con, Reform on Herts County Council.
  • dixiedean
    dixiedean Posts: 30,317
    Some monster swings Con to Ref in Broxbourne.
    30%+.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    North Tyneside soon
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    dixiedean said:

    Some monster swings Con to Ref in Broxbourne.
    30%+.

    Labour third in Waltham Cross which is usually their best area.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,732
    Jon Craig pumping that it is close between Labour and Reform in Runcorn.
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    edited May 2
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Jon Craig pumping that it is close between Labour and Reform in Runcorn.

    my prediction was a Ref win by just 1% and I'm sticking with that.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Has the more leafy vote held up for the Tories whilst the white working class has just decamped en masse to Reform ?
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    Andy_JS said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Jon Craig pumping that it is close between Labour and Reform in Runcorn.

    my prediction was a Ref win by just 1% and I'm sticking with that.
    On the basis of what we’ve seen so far, I would be surprised if RefUK fail to win comfortably.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    Pulpstar said:

    Has the more leafy vote held up for the Tories whilst the white working class has just decamped en masse to Reform ?

    I think the two divisions Reform gained in Broxbourne were the poshest.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,080
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Lucky escape for Labour in Redbridge / Hainault where they win by one vote over an independent.

    Slipped under the radar, had no idea there was a by-election in da North Ilford Ghetto :lol:
    Just to be clear, I'm in a different ward.
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    edited May 2
    Pulpstar said:

    Has the more leafy vote held up for the Tories whilst the white working class has just decamped en masse to Reform ?

    It's held up better but not completely. Lichfield Rural South is above as leafy as it gets in the Midlands and the Tories held on but it was pretty close.

    https://x.com/Lichfield_DC/status/1918110607263371344
    https://x.com/Lichfield_DC/status/1918110625504362553
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    RefUK saying Lab has held on in North Tyneside by 444 votes.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,080
    Tice, unsurprisingly, calling Lincolnshire for Reform.
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    Ref + Tories get more than 50% of votes in North Tyneside but Lab wins it narrowly.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    Andy_JS said:

    RefUK saying Lab has held on in North Tyneside by 444 votes.

    One can assume that Lincolnshire and Doncaster have gone Reform.
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    "Tamworth - Perrycrofts

    Ian Stuart Cooper Reform UK 1517 35% Elected
    Robert Steven Pritchard Conservative 1037 24% Not elected
    Richard John Samuel Kingstone Independent 1021 23% Not elected
    Gareth Coates Labour 588 14% Not elected
    Owxn Harrison Smith Green Party 160 4% Not elected
    Lisa Jane Morris UK Independence Party 27 1% Not elected

    Tamworth - The Heaths

    Hayley Coles Reform UK 2020 55% Elected
    Brett Bryan Beetham Conservative 746 20% Not elected
    Chris Bain Labour and Co-operative Party 595 16% Not elected
    Emily Walker Green Party 233 6% Not elected
    Tony Fergus UK Independence Party 65 2% Not elected


    Tamworth - Watling

    Wayne Luca Reform UK 2164 56% Elected
    Jeremy Oates Conservative 1004 26% Not elected
    Ben Clarke Labour 702 18% Not elected"

    https://vote-2012.proboards.com/posts/recent
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    edited May 2
    Rumour that Labour may have held Runcorn by 200 votes. Merseyside effect.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    Andy_JS said:

    Rumour that Labour may have held Runcorn by 200 votes. Merseyside effect.

    If it was that close, wouldn't there would be a recount?
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    GIN1138 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Rumour that Labour may have held Runcorn by 200 votes. Merseyside effect.

    If it was that close, wouldn't there would be a recount?
    Yes
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    edited May 2
    GIN1138 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Rumour that Labour may have held Runcorn by 200 votes. Merseyside effect.

    If it was that close, wouldn't there would be a recount?
    You'd think so. We could be in for a 5 or 6 in the morning result, which is not what I was hoping for.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    Reform are ahead 8/1 in Staffordshire. My guess is that council will be a Reform gain.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,732
    I forgot that Arron Banks is Reform candidate for Mayor of West of England.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Matched at 2-1 for lab in Runcorn for £4 lol
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I forgot that Arron Banks is Reform candidate for Mayor of West of England.

    Can't believe that Bristol could be represented by Arron Banks.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,732
    Andy_JS said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I forgot that Arron Banks is Reform candidate for Mayor of West of England.

    Can't believe that Bristol could be represented by Arron Banks.
    As I say, they will be rioting in the streets.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Reform ahead in Runcorn betting but not overwhelmingly so now
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I forgot that Arron Banks is Reform candidate for Mayor of West of England.

    Can't believe that Bristol could be represented by Arron Banks.
    As I say, they will be rioting in the streets.
    It looks like there may have been some complacency from lefties in Bristol and Bath with turnout being disappointing compared to what you'd usually expect.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    There must be a good chance that both Labour and Conservatives will fall into the high teens in NEV share.
  • Cookie
    Cookie Posts: 15,685
    Andy_JS said:

    "Tamworth - Perrycrofts

    Ian Stuart Cooper Reform UK 1517 35% Elected
    Robert Steven Pritchard Conservative 1037 24% Not elected
    Richard John Samuel Kingstone Independent 1021 23% Not elected
    Gareth Coates Labour 588 14% Not elected
    Owxn Harrison Smith Green Party 160 4% Not elected
    Lisa Jane Morris UK Independence Party 27 1% Not elected

    Tamworth - The Heaths

    Hayley Coles Reform UK 2020 55% Elected
    Brett Bryan Beetham Conservative 746 20% Not elected
    Chris Bain Labour and Co-operative Party 595 16% Not elected
    Emily Walker Green Party 233 6% Not elected
    Tony Fergus UK Independence Party 65 2% Not elected


    Tamworth - Watling

    Wayne Luca Reform UK 2164 56% Elected
    Jeremy Oates Conservative 1004 26% Not elected
    Ben Clarke Labour 702 18% Not elected"

    https://vote-2012.proboards.com/posts/recent

    Owxn?
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Sean_F said:

    There must be a good chance that both Labour and Conservatives will fall into the high teens in NEV share.

    I could be wrong, but I think this has been quite a good evening for Reform.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Betting odds more confident with Labour/ Runcorn now
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    There must be a good chance that both Labour and Conservatives will fall into the high teens in NEV share.

    I could be wrong, but I think this has been quite a good evening for Reform.
    Expectations were high, and they seem to have exceeded them.
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    There must be a good chance that both Labour and Conservatives will fall into the high teens in NEV share.

    I could be wrong, but I think this has been quite a good evening for Reform.
    Expectations were high, and they seem to have exceeded them.
    Runcorn would be something of a dampener if they fall short.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,732
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    There must be a good chance that both Labour and Conservatives will fall into the high teens in NEV share.

    I could be wrong, but I think this has been quite a good evening for Reform.
    Expectations were high, and they seem to have exceeded them.
    If they don't win Runcorn is that a big dent to it? PR wise I think it could be.
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    There must be a good chance that both Labour and Conservatives will fall into the high teens in NEV share.

    I could be wrong, but I think this has been quite a good evening for Reform.
    Expectations were high, and they seem to have exceeded them.
    If they don't win Runcorn is that a big dent to it? PR wise I think it could be.
    Questions will be asked about their choice of candidate, someone who was a prominent Tory councillor until quite recently IIRC.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    There must be a good chance that both Labour and Conservatives will fall into the high teens in NEV share.

    I could be wrong, but I think this has been quite a good evening for Reform.
    Expectations were high, and they seem to have exceeded them.
    If they don't win Runcorn is that a big dent to it? PR wise I think it could be.
    Not if they win, say, 600 seats, and 3 - 4 Mayoralties.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,080
    Martin Baxter on GB News.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    They're going to choke on their soy lattes in Clifton if Banks wins lol
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Martin Baxter on GB News.

    Missed him.
  • Cookie
    Cookie Posts: 15,685
    Sean_F said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    There must be a good chance that both Labour and Conservatives will fall into the high teens in NEV share.

    I could be wrong, but I think this has been quite a good evening for Reform.
    Expectations were high, and they seem to have exceeded them.
    If they don't win Runcorn is that a big dent to it? PR wise I think it could be.
    Not if they win, say, 600 seats, and 3 - 4 Mayoralties.
    I think Reform's chances in Runcorn were always overstated. Not natural Reform territory. If they don't win it, they did remarkably well to get this close.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,080
    Recount in Runcorn?!
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    Cookie said:

    Sean_F said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    There must be a good chance that both Labour and Conservatives will fall into the high teens in NEV share.

    I could be wrong, but I think this has been quite a good evening for Reform.
    Expectations were high, and they seem to have exceeded them.
    If they don't win Runcorn is that a big dent to it? PR wise I think it could be.
    Not if they win, say, 600 seats, and 3 - 4 Mayoralties.
    I think Reform's chances in Runcorn were always overstated. Not natural Reform territory. If they don't win it, they did remarkably well to get this close.
    If they do lose by 200 votes, the talk about posh Tories in Helsby voting Labour to stop Ref could indeed be an accurate account of what happened. There wouldn't be many voters in that category but there could be up to 500 or so.
  • vik
    vik Posts: 550
    Cookie said:

    Sean_F said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    There must be a good chance that both Labour and Conservatives will fall into the high teens in NEV share.

    I could be wrong, but I think this has been quite a good evening for Reform.
    Expectations were high, and they seem to have exceeded them.
    If they don't win Runcorn is that a big dent to it? PR wise I think it could be.
    Not if they win, say, 600 seats, and 3 - 4 Mayoralties.
    I think Reform's chances in Runcorn were always overstated. Not natural Reform territory. If they don't win it, they did remarkably well to get this close.
    Not on politicalbetting.com they weren't. Lol.

    It was considered a foregone conclusion here.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,080
    Andy_JS said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Martin Baxter on GB News.

    Missed him.
    He's on now
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Martin Baxter on GB News.

    Missed him.
    He's on now
    Watching now.
  • vino
    vino Posts: 182
    Cookie said:

    Sean_F said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    There must be a good chance that both Labour and Conservatives will fall into the high teens in NEV share.

    I could be wrong, but I think this has been quite a good evening for Reform.
    Expectations were high, and they seem to have exceeded them.
    If they don't win Runcorn is that a big dent to it? PR wise I think it could be.
    Not if they win, say, 600 seats, and 3 - 4 Mayoralties.
    I think Reform's chances in Runcorn were always overstated. Not natural Reform territory. If they don't win it, they did remarkably well to get this close.
    Agree entirely - hoped as the first results of the night came through that they stood a good chance.
  • vino
    vino Posts: 182
    vik said:

    Cookie said:

    Sean_F said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    There must be a good chance that both Labour and Conservatives will fall into the high teens in NEV share.

    I could be wrong, but I think this has been quite a good evening for Reform.
    Expectations were high, and they seem to have exceeded them.
    If they don't win Runcorn is that a big dent to it? PR wise I think it could be.
    Not if they win, say, 600 seats, and 3 - 4 Mayoralties.
    I think Reform's chances in Runcorn were always overstated. Not natural Reform territory. If they don't win it, they did remarkably well to get this close.
    Not on politicalbetting.com they weren't. Lol.

    It was considered a foregone conclusion here.
    Only by rich,privately educated remainers who haven't got a clue about Reform voters
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,732
    Do we reckon Farage is hiding around the corner, if Reform don't win, he disappears into the night?
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    edited May 2
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Do we reckon Farage is hiding around the corner, if Reform don't win, he disappears into the night?

    Yes, pretty much. He'll probably be heading to Staffs instead which is almost certainly going to be an easy win for the party.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    Reform win Boston by 55% to 20%.
  • Gardenwalker
    Gardenwalker Posts: 22,434
    I predicted a Labour win in Runcorn.
    Let’s see.

    My record on by-elections and general elections is pretty good.

    On referenda and Trump-elections, it’s shit.
  • Cookie
    Cookie Posts: 15,685
    vik said:

    Cookie said:

    Sean_F said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    There must be a good chance that both Labour and Conservatives will fall into the high teens in NEV share.

    I could be wrong, but I think this has been quite a good evening for Reform.
    Expectations were high, and they seem to have exceeded them.
    If they don't win Runcorn is that a big dent to it? PR wise I think it could be.
    Not if they win, say, 600 seats, and 3 - 4 Mayoralties.
    I think Reform's chances in Runcorn were always overstated. Not natural Reform territory. If they don't win it, they did remarkably well to get this close.
    Not on politicalbetting.com they weren't. Lol.

    It was considered a foregone conclusion here.
    I'd say there was a range of opinions on here. I'm one of at least several who thought a Labour win more likely.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Aapl reckon they've moved the entire US bound supply chain out of China.
    I guess when you've got hundreds of billions of dollars in the bank you can stick up new factories in India, Vietnam or wherever pretty fast lol
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    Partial recount in Runcorn, but RefUK should request a full recount because votes have been known to be found lying around in the past.
  • vik
    vik Posts: 550
    Labour now at 1.35 for Runcorn.

    Wow.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,732
    Now piles of ballot papers are being put back in front of the teams doing the counting. It's definitely a re-check of bundles at the very least.
  • vik
    vik Posts: 550
    Cookie said:

    vik said:

    Cookie said:

    Sean_F said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    There must be a good chance that both Labour and Conservatives will fall into the high teens in NEV share.

    I could be wrong, but I think this has been quite a good evening for Reform.
    Expectations were high, and they seem to have exceeded them.
    If they don't win Runcorn is that a big dent to it? PR wise I think it could be.
    Not if they win, say, 600 seats, and 3 - 4 Mayoralties.
    I think Reform's chances in Runcorn were always overstated. Not natural Reform territory. If they don't win it, they did remarkably well to get this close.
    Not on politicalbetting.com they weren't. Lol.

    It was considered a foregone conclusion here.
    I'd say there was a range of opinions on here. I'm one of at least several who thought a Labour win more likely.
    For sure, there were are a few people saying otherwise, like you and MoonRabbit, but the overall consensus here was that it would be an easy Reform win.
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Now piles of ballot papers are being put back in front of the teams doing the counting. It's definitely a re-check of bundles at the very least.

    Why not request a full recount? No harm in asking the returning officer for one.
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    vik said:

    Cookie said:

    vik said:

    Cookie said:

    Sean_F said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    There must be a good chance that both Labour and Conservatives will fall into the high teens in NEV share.

    I could be wrong, but I think this has been quite a good evening for Reform.
    Expectations were high, and they seem to have exceeded them.
    If they don't win Runcorn is that a big dent to it? PR wise I think it could be.
    Not if they win, say, 600 seats, and 3 - 4 Mayoralties.
    I think Reform's chances in Runcorn were always overstated. Not natural Reform territory. If they don't win it, they did remarkably well to get this close.
    Not on politicalbetting.com they weren't. Lol.

    It was considered a foregone conclusion here.
    I'd say there was a range of opinions on here. I'm one of at least several who thought a Labour win more likely.
    For sure, there were are a few people saying otherwise, like you and MoonRabbit, but the overall consensus here was that it would be an easy Reform win.
    That wasn't my impression, there were more people saying a close Reform win than an easy one.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,732
    edited May 2
    Candidates in Runcorn and Helsby have been told that there are some discrepancies with the bundles of ballot papers, which could lead to further delay in the declaration.

    Is it going to come down to how many people who drew a penis on their ballot paper are adjudged to have made a vote for x....
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    Reform lead 20/6 in Staffordshire.
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    edited May 2
    Sean_F said:

    Reform lead 20/6 in Staffordshire.

    Most of the seats in Cannock Chase and East Staffordshire will go to Reform tomorrow. Those are better areas for Reform than most of the places that have already declared.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    Reform win South Holland by 48% to 29%.
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    I'm starting to think this is less than 100 votes by the amount of time it's taking.
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    edited May 2
    Rumour that 4 votes in it, possibly in Reform's favour. Bloody hell.
  • vik
    vik Posts: 550
    Andy_JS said:

    Rumour that 4 votes in it, possibly in Reform's favour. Bloody hell.

    Yeah. Wow!!!
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,732
    Andy_JS said:

    Rumour that 4 votes in it, possibly in Reform's favour. Bloody hell.

    Have another go....same time next Thursday.
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    edited May 2
    4 votes, my god. :):):):):)
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,080
    Within 4 votes!!
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    4 votes is overturnable in a recount tbh, Reform should be maybe 10-11 favs ?
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    edited May 2
    Labour aren't going to let this result be announced until about 3 full recounts have been conducted, we're going to be here for a long time.

    Sometimes the returning officer lets the counters go home for a few hours in these circumstances.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    You’d need probably a couple of recounts.
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Within 4 votes!!

    Democracy in action, wonderful.
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    Anybody think Starmer is going to be trying a sneaky unravelling of Brexit after tonight?
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    edited May 2
    Funny thing is that about 45 minutes ago Reform people at the count were looking very gloomy, so maybe some votes were found lying around that boosted their total slightly.
  • DecrepiterJohnL
    DecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,769
    vik said:

    Labour now at 1.35 for Runcorn.

    Wow.

    Now Reform 1.34 so they've flip-flopped.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    Andy_JS said:

    Funny thing is that about 45 minutes ago Reform people at the count were looking very gloomy, so maybe some votes were found lying around that boosted their total slightly.

    They may have found a bundle or two in the wrong pile.
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    This is the second-closest election I've ever observed after Winchester 1997 was which was a 2 vote win by the LDs, although that was a general election.
  • DecrepiterJohnL
    DecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,769
    edited May 2
    MarqueeMark said:

    Anybody think Starmer is going to be trying a sneaky unravelling of Brexit after tonight?

    What does that mean? Any agreement with the EU could be characterised as a sneaky unravelling of Brexit.

    Any negotiation with the EU could be characterised as trying a sneaky unravelling of Brexit.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,080
    Andy_JS said:

    This is the second-closest election I've ever observed after Winchester 1997 was which was a 2 vote win by the LDs, although that was a general election.

    It was contested by the Tories, a by-election was called, but the LDs won by quite a massive margin second time around!
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Locals reminding me a bit of the 2019 euro elections
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,080
    Well this is going to take a while, so good night all!
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,732
    A Reform UK official tells the BBC the first count put their party four votes ahead of Labour.

    They add that Labour asked for the full recount that’s now happening.

    Separately, two other party officials confirm that Reform UK were four votes ahead of Labour on the first count.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    edited May 2
    Judging by the results from North Tyneside and Broxbourne, Reform may be doing well in quite prosperous areas, not just the Red Wall.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,732
    In a twist, it seems the Conservatives have re-entered the race at Doncaster racecourse - site of the Doncaster mayoral count.

    For most of the night, we thought it was quite close between Labour and Reform, but since the counting of the postal votes, there seems to be a surge for the Conservatives.

    So it seems that this have gone from a very, very tight race between two parties to a tight race between three parties.

    There is also a slight quirk in that two candidates have the surname Jones - incumbent Labour mayor Ros Jones and Reform candidate Alexander Jones.
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Andy_JS said:

    This is the second-closest election I've ever observed after Winchester 1997 was which was a 2 vote win by the LDs, although that was a general election.

    It was contested by the Tories, a by-election was called, but the LDs won by quite a massive margin second time around!
    True. oh, i've just remembered the 4 vote majority in Fermanagh and South Tyrone in 2005 maybe, or 2010. Too tired to look it up.
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    This is all we need. If Reform don’t win, there will be claims of vote rigging.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Andy_JS said:

    This is the second-closest election I've ever observed after Winchester 1997 was which was a 2 vote win by the LDs, although that was a general election.

    It was contested by the Tories, a by-election was called, but the LDs won by quite a massive margin second time around!
    Whatever happened to the winning Liberal Democrat MP?
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    rcs1000 said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Andy_JS said:

    This is the second-closest election I've ever observed after Winchester 1997 was which was a 2 vote win by the LDs, although that was a general election.

    It was contested by the Tories, a by-election was called, but the LDs won by quite a massive margin second time around!
    Whatever happened to the winning Liberal Democrat MP?
    I can remember someone posting on this site:

    “OMG, I’ve just found out what he paid extra for!”
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,732
    tlg86 said:

    This is all we need. If Reform don’t win, there will be claims of vote rigging.

    Its the deep state ;-)
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    tlg86 said:

    This is all we need. If Reform don’t win, there will be claims of vote rigging.

    It's very rare that leads are overturned. But 4 votes is a genuinely tiny margin.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,732
    West of England result about to be declared
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    West of England result about to be declared

    I think it would be the most extraordinary result I've ever witnessed if Banks wins it.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    So far Reform have won 6/6 on Lincs. County Council.
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    edited May 2
    West of England mayoral result

    Lab 51,197 (24.97%)
    RefUK 45,252 (22.07%)
    Green 41,094 (20.04%)
    Con 34,092 (16.63%)
    LD 28,711 (14.00%)
    Scott Ind 4,682 (2.28%)
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    edited May 2
    Doncaster mayoral result (top 4 candidates)

    Lab 23,805
    Reform 23,107
    Con 18,982
    Grn 2,449
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