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Political betting is being blamed for the Tories losing control of every council tonight

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Comments

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,890
    HYUFD said:

    This is CCHQ expectations management so they can say even holding 1 council was better than expected.

    Electoral Calculus has the Conservatives still holding overall control of Buckinghamshire, Leicestershire and Wiltshire
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_lepoll_20250314.html

    The last few years they've been terrible at expectation management as they've always managed to do worse than their worst expectations lol!

    Seems that game has improved as you can't do any worse than what they are spinning (losing overall control of every council)
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,525
    edited May 1

    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    carnforth said:

    Today's picture:



    "Shoplifting now so bad you need a log scale" (via Twitter)

    It's a complete collapse of the rule of law. Only Reeves knows how we are going to get inflation down when shops' overheads are increasing like this. We are all paying for this failure every time we go shopping.
    FWIW, theft isn't a huge cost to most retailers. Certainly adds some costs (particularly tagging and untagging high value items and security salaries), but ultimately the turnover is so massive, and the margin so small, that it doesn't do too much damage. It might add just 2-5% to your annual shopping bill, even now.

    It's difficult to find a solution. I used to deal with professional thieves with a list of high value stuff. My local food shop gets swept by 16-year olds looking for a buzz. A lot of stolen bikes just get dumped in a hedge.
    Is it that difficult? The consequences of stealing need to be worse than the benefits of stealing. If they aren't, people will steal. If they are, the vast majority won't.
    The vast majority won't either way, its the same people who do it again and again.

    Prison works, if only because while people are incarcerated they're not committing crimes and getting one serial criminal off the streets prevents many, many crimes.
    Eh? Lots of people in prison commit crimes, from smuggling drugs to assaulting prison officers or each other to attempting to escape. And there's plenty of evidence that once they're released, as virtually all of them will be, they are more likely to commit crimes than they would have been had they not been in prison. The indirect effects of incarceration, too, like family breakup or kids growing up without a parent, however terrible, are crushing. Otherwise America, which jails five times as many people as we do per head, and ten or twenty times more than most civilised countries, would be an oasis of law and order, and Japan a crime-ridden shithole.

    And all the while, of course, presenting the taxpayer with a huge bill for their board and lodging.

    Prison is at best slightly better than the other dismal alternatives, and at worst completely counter-productive.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,944
    ..

    Anecdote alert:

    Father-in-law (94) rang up at 8:30pm wanting a lift to the polling station despite stating earlier he "couldn't be bothered".

    Has watched quite a lot of GB News in his time so I assumed he was Reform adjacent since he isn't exactly PC either.

    Said 'Farage is too close to Trump' whilst on the way.


    Chalk one up for the incumbent red team, I think, although I can't be sure.

    I wonder if there will be a lot of this, despite the polling?

    Or just trying to put you off the scent.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,740
    What time are we expecting the byelection result?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,245

    What time are we expecting the byelection result?

    It’s supposed to be around 3 am but it probably depends on turnout .
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,570
    I was hoping for 4-4 in the snooker match between Trump and Williams but it looks like it's going to be 5-3 instead.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,318
    Regarding shoplifting:

    Can we have a system a bit like speeding tickets where it is a civil offence with increasing fines without the need for being proven guilty beyond reasonable doubt and clogging up the courts?

    CCTV catches you stealing? Fine 50x value of items, or £1,000, whichever is highest. Maybe subject to a maximum. If you appeal it's done on balance of probabilities.

    Repeat offenders see higher fines and eventually a criminal case. But we need speedy justice for low level crime to deter this sort of shit.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,570
    HYUFD said:

    This is CCHQ expectations management so they can say even holding 1 council was better than expected.

    Electoral Calculus has the Conservatives still holding overall control of Buckinghamshire, Leicestershire and Wiltshire
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_lepoll_20250314.html

    IIRC Bucks was the only council the Tories retained in either 1993 or 1995, can't remember which.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,570
    I don't really believe this, I think the Greens will win West of England.

    "Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️
    @LeftieStats
    ‼️POLL | Reform LEAD in West of England

    🟣 REF 25% (+25)
    🟢 GRN 24% (+2)
    🔴 LAB 19% (-14)
    🔵 CON 17% (-12)
    🟠 LD 11% (-5)

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 29-30 Apr (+/- vs 2021)"

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1918055428875010093
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,961

    ..

    Anecdote alert:

    Father-in-law (94) rang up at 8:30pm wanting a lift to the polling station despite stating earlier he "couldn't be bothered".

    Has watched quite a lot of GB News in his time so I assumed he was Reform adjacent since he isn't exactly PC either.

    Said 'Farage is too close to Trump' whilst on the way.


    Chalk one up for the incumbent red team, I think, although I can't be sure.

    I wonder if there will be a lot of this, despite the polling?

    Or just trying to put you off the scent.
    Well, that's possible, but I don't think so.

    There is definitely some contamination spreading to Farage from the US.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,184

    If the Tories are blaming the betting furore then they've learned nothing yet about why they lost the election.

    The Tories were deeply unpopular long before the story about betting on the election date ever came up.

    I think a story like the insider betting on the election date can be not very important in itself, but it can be emblematic of many other failings - in this case, perhaps, a sense that the Tories were more interested in extracting a financial advantage, than the supposed day job of being a politician. "They don't care about anything, but making themselves a few bob."
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,740
    edited May 1
    Ratters said:

    Regarding shoplifting:

    Can we have a system a bit like speeding tickets where it is a civil offence with increasing fines without the need for being proven guilty beyond reasonable doubt and clogging up the courts?

    CCTV catches you stealing? Fine 50x value of items, or £1,000, whichever is highest. Maybe subject to a maximum. If you appeal it's done on balance of probabilities.

    Repeat offenders see higher fines and eventually a criminal case. But we need speedy justice for low level crime to deter this sort of shit.

    1) Fines are always a problem because you have to collect them. We aren't starting from a place like Singapore where fines are commonly used, enforcement / detection is very high.

    2) Detection rates are really low

    3) Your approach you will only really catch the junkies who stagger in to steal some booze, who won't ever pay the fine and have bigger issues and aren't the real core of what is driving the massive increases.

    4) The professional gangs just come in with faces covered, so CCTV doesn't help.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,084

    TimS said:

    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    carnforth said:

    Today's picture:



    "Shoplifting now so bad you need a log scale" (via Twitter)

    It's a complete collapse of the rule of law. Only Reeves knows how we are going to get inflation down when shops' overheads are increasing like this. We are all paying for this failure every time we go shopping.
    FWIW, theft isn't a huge cost to most retailers. Certainly adds some costs (particularly tagging and untagging high value items and security salaries), but ultimately the turnover is so massive, and the margin so small, that it doesn't do too much damage. It might add just 2-5% to your annual shopping bill, even now.

    It's difficult to find a solution. I used to deal with professional thieves with a list of high value stuff. My local food shop gets swept by 16-year olds looking for a buzz. A lot of stolen bikes just get dumped in a hedge.
    Is it that difficult? The consequences of stealing need to be worse than the benefits of stealing. If they aren't, people will steal. If they are, the vast majority won't.
    The vast majority won't either way, its the same people who do it again and again.

    Prison works, if only because while people are incarcerated they're not committing crimes and getting one serial criminal off the streets prevents many, many crimes.
    Having looked at the stats I now conclude that the only thing that works with petty crime is social shame and taboo. As with littering.

    We achieved it with drink driving and seatbelts, we’ve achieved with smoking indoors, maybe we can have a go at least with the non organised crime bits of shoplifting. (Organised crime now accounts for quite a high percentage of shop theft).
    Your comment makes no sense to me, organised crime accounts for a high percentage so the only thing that works is something that doesn't target organised crime?

    Getting the criminals nicked, prosecuted and imprisoned takes the criminals off the street and stops the crimes. The problem is that even if people are caught currently, it takes years to face prosecution (if they do) and then they'll get a suspended sentence, if anything.
    Organised crime is about 30%. So there’s still a good 70% to be aiming at.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,740
    edited May 1
    Andy_JS said:

    I don't really believe this, I think the Greens will win West of England.

    "Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️
    @LeftieStats
    ‼️POLL | Reform LEAD in West of England

    🟣 REF 25% (+25)
    🟢 GRN 24% (+2)
    🔴 LAB 19% (-14)
    🔵 CON 17% (-12)
    🟠 LD 11% (-5)

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 29-30 Apr (+/- vs 2021)"

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1918055428875010093

    The area contained in that mayoral area is very diverse (I don't just mean in a terms of black, asian, people etc).
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,095
    Has anyone compared what happened to New York City from 1950-1980, because that is exactly what is happening to the UK, except it is accelerated
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,315
    Andy_JS said:

    I don't really believe this, I think the Greens will win West of England.

    "Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️
    @LeftieStats
    ‼️POLL | Reform LEAD in West of England

    🟣 REF 25% (+25)
    🟢 GRN 24% (+2)
    🔴 LAB 19% (-14)
    🔵 CON 17% (-12)
    🟠 LD 11% (-5)

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 29-30 Apr (+/- vs 2021)"

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1918055428875010093

    A lot comes down to the relative turnout of the 3 authorities. Ref won't do that well in Bristol, but better in the other two councils. The Greens will be the other way round.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,184
    edited May 1
    MaxPB said:

    Ratters said:

    Regarding shoplifting:

    Can we have a system a bit like speeding tickets where it is a civil offence with increasing fines without the need for being proven guilty beyond reasonable doubt and clogging up the courts?

    CCTV catches you stealing? Fine 50x value of items, or £1,000, whichever is highest. Maybe subject to a maximum. If you appeal it's done on balance of probabilities.

    Repeat offenders see higher fines and eventually a criminal case. But we need speedy justice for low level crime to deter this sort of shit.

    Stick them in the clink for 20+ years, deport the foreigners and have done with them. A few exemplary sentences ought to be enough. Do it for a few months and then any outbreak of thieving do it again, after a few rounds the problem will resolve itself. Make a big song and dance over the extra long sentencing and deportations, have the PM tell the nation that we won't stand for it and actually mean it. Fuck the do gooders and human rights brigade if they pipe up.
    Long sentences haven't proven much of a deterrent in the US.

    I think what works is increasing the rate of conviction, and reducing the time from offence to conviction. The response to the riots should be a guide here. You could have specialist courts set up to prosecute these cases quickly. Speed up the whole process. Once people get the message that there will be consequences pretty soon, the consequences themselves don't necessarily have to be as severe as a couple of decades in the clink.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,500
    .
    Fishing said:

    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    carnforth said:

    Today's picture:



    "Shoplifting now so bad you need a log scale" (via Twitter)

    It's a complete collapse of the rule of law. Only Reeves knows how we are going to get inflation down when shops' overheads are increasing like this. We are all paying for this failure every time we go shopping.
    FWIW, theft isn't a huge cost to most retailers. Certainly adds some costs (particularly tagging and untagging high value items and security salaries), but ultimately the turnover is so massive, and the margin so small, that it doesn't do too much damage. It might add just 2-5% to your annual shopping bill, even now.

    It's difficult to find a solution. I used to deal with professional thieves with a list of high value stuff. My local food shop gets swept by 16-year olds looking for a buzz. A lot of stolen bikes just get dumped in a hedge.
    Is it that difficult? The consequences of stealing need to be worse than the benefits of stealing. If they aren't, people will steal. If they are, the vast majority won't.
    The vast majority won't either way, its the same people who do it again and again.

    Prison works, if only because while people are incarcerated they're not committing crimes and getting one serial criminal off the streets prevents many, many crimes.
    Eh? Lots of people in prison commit crimes, from smuggling drugs to assaulting prison officers or each other to attempting to escape. And there's plenty of evidence that once they're released, as virtually all of them will be, they are more likely to commit crimes than they would have been had they not been in prison. The indirect effects of incarceration, too, like family breakup or kids growing up without a parent, however terrible, are crushing. Otherwise America, which jails five times as many people as we do per head, and ten or twenty times more than most civilised countries, would be an oasis of law and order, and Japan a crime-ridden shithole.

    And all the while, of course, presenting the taxpayer with a huge bill for their board and lodging.

    Prison is at best slightly better than the other dismal alternatives, and at worst completely counter-productive.
    'once they've been released' - yes they do, however while they're incarcerated they're not committing crimes. Releasing people back onto the streets who are guilty means they're just committing more crimes continuously.

    The other problem with America is they jail far, far, far too many people for victimless "crimes". That's the worst of both worlds.

    America has a lot more problems than just the fact it has prisons. If America decided to stop jailing its criminals, it wouldn't see its crime rate go down.

    Prison should only be used for criminals and crimes should only be crimes because they have victims.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,084
    edited May 1
    I am enjoying a quite good airport lounge, the Polaris lounge Chicago, which opened this week. Only quite good because it’s noisy, the seats aren’t that comfortable, but if you’re in a sociable mood it’s up there with - though not quite - the Virgin lounge in T3. Or the Finnair lounge in Helsinki.

    They have a “speakeasy” where you get served cocktails and the bartenders do their best Fred Siriex efforts to get fellow travellers talking to each other. I made the mistake of asking for a “Malort” which apparently is the Chicago spirit, based on wormwood. I assumed it would be a sweet (because USA) absinthe. Sadly neither sweet nor particularly like absinthe. Just bitter. Like drinking a shot of neat Campari.

    I had a nice, brief chat with my attractive neighbour at the bar. Politics didn’t come up. But the obviously in-his-30s Canadian to my right got asked for ID, which was amusing.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,831
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    I just got really pleasantly drunk in Richmond by the river with an old friend and then we did a new drug called “gascake”

    There has been a high tide. Many are confused. I am zoinked




    Errr - isn't that just California weed?
    he's an old man who's just discovered how to connect his phone to his speaker, just smile politely
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,084

    MaxPB said:

    Ratters said:

    Regarding shoplifting:

    Can we have a system a bit like speeding tickets where it is a civil offence with increasing fines without the need for being proven guilty beyond reasonable doubt and clogging up the courts?

    CCTV catches you stealing? Fine 50x value of items, or £1,000, whichever is highest. Maybe subject to a maximum. If you appeal it's done on balance of probabilities.

    Repeat offenders see higher fines and eventually a criminal case. But we need speedy justice for low level crime to deter this sort of shit.

    Stick them in the clink for 20+ years, deport the foreigners and have done with them. A few exemplary sentences ought to be enough. Do it for a few months and then any outbreak of thieving do it again, after a few rounds the problem will resolve itself. Make a big song and dance over the extra long sentencing and deportations, have the PM tell the nation that we won't stand for it and actually mean it. Fuck the do gooders and human rights brigade if they pipe up.
    Long sentences haven't proven much of a deterrent in the US.

    I think what works is increasing the rate of conviction, and reducing the time from offence to conviction. The response to the riots should be a guide here. You could have specialist courts set up to prosecute these cases quickly. Speed up the whole process. Once people get the message that there will be consequences pretty soon, the consequences themselves don't necessarily have to be as severe as a couple of decades in the clink.
    Absolutely. Policing: knowing you’ll get caught. If there’s a low risk of getting caught then the sentence is irrelevant. Just catch the fuckers.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,721
    Andy_JS said:

    I don't really believe this, I think the Greens will win West of England.

    "Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️
    @LeftieStats
    ‼️POLL | Reform LEAD in West of England

    🟣 REF 25% (+25)
    🟢 GRN 24% (+2)
    🔴 LAB 19% (-14)
    🔵 CON 17% (-12)
    🟠 LD 11% (-5)

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 29-30 Apr (+/- vs 2021)"

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1918055428875010093

    I'm surprised how low the LD score is.

    Either way it looks like one of the more interesting contests.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,740
    edited May 1
    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don't really believe this, I think the Greens will win West of England.

    "Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️
    @LeftieStats
    ‼️POLL | Reform LEAD in West of England

    🟣 REF 25% (+25)
    🟢 GRN 24% (+2)
    🔴 LAB 19% (-14)
    🔵 CON 17% (-12)
    🟠 LD 11% (-5)

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 29-30 Apr (+/- vs 2021)"

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1918055428875010093

    I'm surprised how low the LD score is.

    Either way it looks like one of the more interesting contests.
    Greenies have been very popular in Bristol for quite a while. Bath has a Lib Dem MP but she isn't very popular (went backwards at the last GE) and if I remember correctly Green did quite well there too.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,721

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don't really believe this, I think the Greens will win West of England.

    "Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️
    @LeftieStats
    ‼️POLL | Reform LEAD in West of England

    🟣 REF 25% (+25)
    🟢 GRN 24% (+2)
    🔴 LAB 19% (-14)
    🔵 CON 17% (-12)
    🟠 LD 11% (-5)

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 29-30 Apr (+/- vs 2021)"

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1918055428875010093

    I'm surprised how low the LD score is.

    Either way it looks like one of the more interesting contests.
    Greenies have been very popular in Bristol for quite a while. Bath has a Lib Dem MP but she isn't very popular (went backwards at the last GE) and if I remember correctly Green did quite well there too.
    The Greens do look to be struggling to break through in this round of council contests, so winning a mayoralty would probably be fair reward.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,267
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    This is CCHQ expectations management so they can say even holding 1 council was better than expected.

    Electoral Calculus has the Conservatives still holding overall control of Buckinghamshire, Leicestershire and Wiltshire
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_lepoll_20250314.html

    IIRC Bucks was the only council the Tories retained in either 1993 or 1995, can't remember which.
    1993 county council elections
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,245
    If it’s very close and Labour lose the by-election then the moronic WFA cut will be what costs them .
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,818
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Rambling speech from failed candidate.

    Democrats need to move on.

    https://youtu.be/Zw7AeBdulw4?si=hrnNBKoNBBYejBpe

    Hmm... TAZ stands for Trump-Admiring Zealot?
    Wrong.

    It’s the in ring name of the human suplex machine, Taz. A fine wrestler.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taz_(wrestler)

    As for me admiring Trump, someone I’ve never praised and this his economic policies are ruinous. you really are a spacker for even suggesting it.
    Calm down, dear!!!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,438
    Leon said:

    Has anyone compared what happened to New York City from 1950-1980, because that is exactly what is happening to the UK, except it is accelerated

    Without the great music, art, literature & filmmaking presumably.
  • theoldpoliticstheoldpolitics Posts: 282
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don't really believe this, I think the Greens will win West of England.

    "Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️
    @LeftieStats
    ‼️POLL | Reform LEAD in West of England

    🟣 REF 25% (+25)
    🟢 GRN 24% (+2)
    🔴 LAB 19% (-14)
    🔵 CON 17% (-12)
    🟠 LD 11% (-5)

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 29-30 Apr (+/- vs 2021)"

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1918055428875010093

    I'm surprised how low the LD score is.

    Either way it looks like one of the more interesting contests.
    Greenies have been very popular in Bristol for quite a while. Bath has a Lib Dem MP but she isn't very popular (went backwards at the last GE) and if I remember correctly Green did quite well there too.
    The Greens do look to be struggling to break through in this round of council contests, so winning a mayoralty would probably be fair reward.
    There's an outside possibility of them becoming the official opposition in Oxfordshire, mind you, if the stars align very precisely and the Tories are smashed as badly as expected in the Tory-LD marginals. Whether official opposition is an upgrade from junior partner in a minority administration is left as an exercise for the reader.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,184
    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone read Embassytown, by China Mieville? I loved Perdido Street Station and the Scar, but realized I bought the Kindle book but never read it.

    I've read Perdido Street Station, its two sequels (The Scar and Iron Council), King Rat, Kraken, Un Lun Dun and his (harrowing) collection of short stories, Looking for Jake. All have been excellent, and, when I finally have a home of my own, and space to put some new books in, I intend to catch up with the rest of the books that he's written.

    Incidentally, there's a tabletop miniature skirmish game being developed which is very much in the same sort of style of Fantasy. The last time I heard it had the working title of "Union Jacked", though that has been through a few iterations, one very much in TSE's taste...
    Gang Banged
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,330
    Jon Craig@joncraig
    Stay up late for Runcorn & Helsby Labour v Reform by-election drama on Sky News. Reform insider: “I think it will be within 1,000 votes, but I reckon we will edge it. To use a Farageism: ‘We’ll win it by a gnat’s knob.’”
    https://x.com/joncraig/status/1918048252915515485
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,588
    Re shoplifting, wouldn't it be simplest to allow shops to dispense their own justice? If they want to shoot shoplifters, they should be allowed. If they want to brand people who shoplift, they should be allowed.

    And if people don't want to visit stores that execute shoplifters, then they will not.

    Basically let the market decide.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,400
    Spent the last few days on the election trail. Anecdotal, obviously. But hardly found anyone who wasn’t voting Reform.

    https://x.com/dpjhodges/status/1918049399038505031?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • Nunu3Nunu3 Posts: 279

    Andy_JS said:

    I don't really believe this, I think the Greens will win West of England.

    "Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️
    @LeftieStats
    ‼️POLL | Reform LEAD in West of England

    🟣 REF 25% (+25)
    🟢 GRN 24% (+2)
    🔴 LAB 19% (-14)
    🔵 CON 17% (-12)
    🟠 LD 11% (-5)

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 29-30 Apr (+/- vs 2021)"

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1918055428875010093

    A lot comes down to the relative turnout of the 3 authorities. Ref won't do that well in Bristol, but better in the other two councils. The Greens will be the other way round.
    I thought Bristol already has a mayor. Will this be duplication?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,740
    edited May 1
    Nunu3 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don't really believe this, I think the Greens will win West of England.

    "Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️
    @LeftieStats
    ‼️POLL | Reform LEAD in West of England

    🟣 REF 25% (+25)
    🟢 GRN 24% (+2)
    🔴 LAB 19% (-14)
    🔵 CON 17% (-12)
    🟠 LD 11% (-5)

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 29-30 Apr (+/- vs 2021)"

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1918055428875010093

    A lot comes down to the relative turnout of the 3 authorities. Ref won't do that well in Bristol, but better in the other two councils. The Greens will be the other way round.
    I thought Bristol already has a mayor. Will this be duplication?
    They voted to scrap the directly elected Bristol City mayor role last year in a referendum.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,721
    edited May 1
    Nunu3 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don't really believe this, I think the Greens will win West of England.

    "Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️
    @LeftieStats
    ‼️POLL | Reform LEAD in West of England

    🟣 REF 25% (+25)
    🟢 GRN 24% (+2)
    🔴 LAB 19% (-14)
    🔵 CON 17% (-12)
    🟠 LD 11% (-5)

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 29-30 Apr (+/- vs 2021)"

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1918055428875010093

    A lot comes down to the relative turnout of the 3 authorities. Ref won't do that well in Bristol, but better in the other two councils. The Greens will be the other way round.
    I thought Bristol already has a mayor. Will this be duplication?
    They got rid of the City Mayor (I think the Greens helped lead the charge on that) and moved to a committee system. So local authority no longer has a mayor (well, a Lord Mayor, ie a Chairman), but the regional authority does.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,084

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don't really believe this, I think the Greens will win West of England.

    "Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️
    @LeftieStats
    ‼️POLL | Reform LEAD in West of England

    🟣 REF 25% (+25)
    🟢 GRN 24% (+2)
    🔴 LAB 19% (-14)
    🔵 CON 17% (-12)
    🟠 LD 11% (-5)

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 29-30 Apr (+/- vs 2021)"

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1918055428875010093

    I'm surprised how low the LD score is.

    Either way it looks like one of the more interesting contests.
    Greenies have been very popular in Bristol for quite a while. Bath has a Lib Dem MP but she isn't very popular (went backwards at the last GE) and if I remember correctly Green did quite well there too.
    Wera Hobhouse is the MP and I agree, she’s just a bit too eccentric. One of the old school, nice enough but a bit away with the fairies.
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,315
    Nunu3 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don't really believe this, I think the Greens will win West of England.

    "Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️
    @LeftieStats
    ‼️POLL | Reform LEAD in West of England

    🟣 REF 25% (+25)
    🟢 GRN 24% (+2)
    🔴 LAB 19% (-14)
    🔵 CON 17% (-12)
    🟠 LD 11% (-5)

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 29-30 Apr (+/- vs 2021)"

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1918055428875010093

    A lot comes down to the relative turnout of the 3 authorities. Ref won't do that well in Bristol, but better in the other two councils. The Greens will be the other way round.
    I thought Bristol already has a mayor. Will this be duplication?
    Bristol had a mayor but they've now ditched that and gone back to the standard council model
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,799
    edited May 1
    rcs1000 said:

    Re shoplifting, wouldn't it be simplest to allow shops to dispense their own justice? If they want to shoot shoplifters, they should be allowed. If they want to brand people who shoplift, they should be allowed.

    And if people don't want to visit stores that execute shoplifters, then they will not.

    Basically let the market decide.

    Liked for the (presumably) unintended pun.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,923
    TimS said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don't really believe this, I think the Greens will win West of England.

    "Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️
    @LeftieStats
    ‼️POLL | Reform LEAD in West of England

    🟣 REF 25% (+25)
    🟢 GRN 24% (+2)
    🔴 LAB 19% (-14)
    🔵 CON 17% (-12)
    🟠 LD 11% (-5)

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 29-30 Apr (+/- vs 2021)"

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1918055428875010093

    I'm surprised how low the LD score is.

    Either way it looks like one of the more interesting contests.
    Greenies have been very popular in Bristol for quite a while. Bath has a Lib Dem MP but she isn't very popular (went backwards at the last GE) and if I remember correctly Green did quite well there too.
    Wera Hobhouse is the MP and I agree, she’s just a bit too eccentric. One of the old school, nice enough but a bit away with the fairies.
    I'm kind of pleased that old-fashioned Lib MPs of this sort still exist. Adds to the gaiety of the nation.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,721

    Nunu3 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don't really believe this, I think the Greens will win West of England.

    "Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️
    @LeftieStats
    ‼️POLL | Reform LEAD in West of England

    🟣 REF 25% (+25)
    🟢 GRN 24% (+2)
    🔴 LAB 19% (-14)
    🔵 CON 17% (-12)
    🟠 LD 11% (-5)

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 29-30 Apr (+/- vs 2021)"

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1918055428875010093

    A lot comes down to the relative turnout of the 3 authorities. Ref won't do that well in Bristol, but better in the other two councils. The Greens will be the other way round.
    I thought Bristol already has a mayor. Will this be duplication?
    Bristol had a mayor but they've now ditched that and gone back to the standard council model
    I haven't seen figures on it, but would the traditional committee system still be the standard? Leader/Cabinet or Mayor/Cabinet may be more prevalent?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,721
    edited May 1
    TimS said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don't really believe this, I think the Greens will win West of England.

    "Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️
    @LeftieStats
    ‼️POLL | Reform LEAD in West of England

    🟣 REF 25% (+25)
    🟢 GRN 24% (+2)
    🔴 LAB 19% (-14)
    🔵 CON 17% (-12)
    🟠 LD 11% (-5)

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 29-30 Apr (+/- vs 2021)"

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1918055428875010093

    I'm surprised how low the LD score is.

    Either way it looks like one of the more interesting contests.
    Greenies have been very popular in Bristol for quite a while. Bath has a Lib Dem MP but she isn't very popular (went backwards at the last GE) and if I remember correctly Green did quite well there too.
    Wera Hobhouse is the MP and I agree, she’s just a bit too eccentric. One of the old school, nice enough but a bit away with the fairies.
    A 5G conspiracy theorist to boot (or an appeaser of the conspiracy theorists, which is even worse).
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,084
    isam said:

    Spent the last few days on the election trail. Anecdotal, obviously. But hardly found anyone who wasn’t voting Reform.

    https://x.com/dpjhodges/status/1918049399038505031?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Does feel like this’ll be the story of the night.

    The Reform storm. The Farage Barrage. The fash splash. The knave wave. The Britain Trump jump.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,874
    edited May 1
    TimS said:

    MaxPB said:

    Ratters said:

    Regarding shoplifting:

    Can we have a system a bit like speeding tickets where it is a civil offence with increasing fines without the need for being proven guilty beyond reasonable doubt and clogging up the courts?

    CCTV catches you stealing? Fine 50x value of items, or £1,000, whichever is highest. Maybe subject to a maximum. If you appeal it's done on balance of probabilities.

    Repeat offenders see higher fines and eventually a criminal case. But we need speedy justice for low level crime to deter this sort of shit.

    Stick them in the clink for 20+ years, deport the foreigners and have done with them. A few exemplary sentences ought to be enough. Do it for a few months and then any outbreak of thieving do it again, after a few rounds the problem will resolve itself. Make a big song and dance over the extra long sentencing and deportations, have the PM tell the nation that we won't stand for it and actually mean it. Fuck the do gooders and human rights brigade if they pipe up.
    Long sentences haven't proven much of a deterrent in the US.

    I think what works is increasing the rate of conviction, and reducing the time from offence to conviction. The response to the riots should be a guide here. You could have specialist courts set up to prosecute these cases quickly. Speed up the whole process. Once people get the message that there will be consequences pretty soon, the consequences themselves don't necessarily have to be as severe as a couple of decades in the clink.
    Absolutely. Policing: knowing you’ll get caught. If there’s a low risk of getting caught then the sentence is irrelevant. Just catch the fuckers.
    But when they get caught they actually need to be punished with a jail sentence. The problem is that when these people get caught they get let off and are out stealing the very same afternoon they get arrested. Instant deportation for foreigners caught stealing (or of any crime really) with no right of appeal and exemplary sentences for citizens. Do it for a few months and substantially raise the risk in people's risk/reward calculation. If you have a 100% chance of being let off after being caught then what's the incentive to stop? If you have a 100% chance of getting a 20 year sentence or deportation after being caught people will think twice. The key is to catch them, as you rightly say, but to also action sentencing and deportations rapidly. As in within a few days for deportation and within a weeks for sentencing.

    As soon as word gets out vast majority of it will stop and then you're left with drug addicts and kleptomaniacs. The issue is that ordinary people and gangs see literally no downside risk to stealing at the moment.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,721
    TimS said:

    isam said:

    Spent the last few days on the election trail. Anecdotal, obviously. But hardly found anyone who wasn’t voting Reform.

    https://x.com/dpjhodges/status/1918049399038505031?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Does feel like this’ll be the story of the night.

    The Reform storm. The Farage Barrage. The fash splash. The knave wave. The Britain Trump jump.
    Even the worst predictions would have them win hundreds, and probably the most of anyone. If they can win the parliamentary by-election and actually control some councils that is adding lustre to the story, but even a 'bad' night, where the Tories have most seats and retain several councils, won't be that disappointing for them surely.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,740
    edited May 1
    TimS said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don't really believe this, I think the Greens will win West of England.

    "Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️
    @LeftieStats
    ‼️POLL | Reform LEAD in West of England

    🟣 REF 25% (+25)
    🟢 GRN 24% (+2)
    🔴 LAB 19% (-14)
    🔵 CON 17% (-12)
    🟠 LD 11% (-5)

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 29-30 Apr (+/- vs 2021)"

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1918055428875010093

    I'm surprised how low the LD score is.

    Either way it looks like one of the more interesting contests.
    Greenies have been very popular in Bristol for quite a while. Bath has a Lib Dem MP but she isn't very popular (went backwards at the last GE) and if I remember correctly Green did quite well there too.
    Wera Hobhouse is the MP and I agree, she’s just a bit too eccentric. One of the old school, nice enough but a bit away with the fairies.
    I know somebody who had dealings with her, a natural lib dem voter and came away absolutely incensed with her. Apparently got lectured on Brexit and the Tories, the Tories, Brexit, the Tories after they went to speak to them about something non-political that they needed help with. And then after been lectured to about totally irrelevant issues, was then told to go away couldn't help them. When it really was a classic speak to your MP issue as they can help.

    When I go to visit them if I want to have some fun I only need to mention how's your local MP these days...then I get the 5G conspiracy theorist rant....
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,923
    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don't really believe this, I think the Greens will win West of England.

    "Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️
    @LeftieStats
    ‼️POLL | Reform LEAD in West of England

    🟣 REF 25% (+25)
    🟢 GRN 24% (+2)
    🔴 LAB 19% (-14)
    🔵 CON 17% (-12)
    🟠 LD 11% (-5)

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 29-30 Apr (+/- vs 2021)"

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1918055428875010093

    I'm surprised how low the LD score is.

    Either way it looks like one of the more interesting contests.
    We were talking about tactical voting in Rumcorn and Helsby earlier - wouls Tories vote Ref tactically to keep out Lab? Or vote Lab tactically to keep out Ref? I suggested they would probably bet best advised to vote Tory.
    But if I was a Tory in the West of England faced with the prospect of a green metro mayor, I'd definifely be voting Reform tactically.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,084
    edited May 1
    MaxPB said:

    TimS said:

    MaxPB said:

    Ratters said:

    Regarding shoplifting:

    Can we have a system a bit like speeding tickets where it is a civil offence with increasing fines without the need for being proven guilty beyond reasonable doubt and clogging up the courts?

    CCTV catches you stealing? Fine 50x value of items, or £1,000, whichever is highest. Maybe subject to a maximum. If you appeal it's done on balance of probabilities.

    Repeat offenders see higher fines and eventually a criminal case. But we need speedy justice for low level crime to deter this sort of shit.

    Stick them in the clink for 20+ years, deport the foreigners and have done with them. A few exemplary sentences ought to be enough. Do it for a few months and then any outbreak of thieving do it again, after a few rounds the problem will resolve itself. Make a big song and dance over the extra long sentencing and deportations, have the PM tell the nation that we won't stand for it and actually mean it. Fuck the do gooders and human rights brigade if they pipe up.
    Long sentences haven't proven much of a deterrent in the US.

    I think what works is increasing the rate of conviction, and reducing the time from offence to conviction. The response to the riots should be a guide here. You could have specialist courts set up to prosecute these cases quickly. Speed up the whole process. Once people get the message that there will be consequences pretty soon, the consequences themselves don't necessarily have to be as severe as a couple of decades in the clink.
    Absolutely. Policing: knowing you’ll get caught. If there’s a low risk of getting caught then the sentence is irrelevant. Just catch the fuckers.
    But when they get caught they actually need to be punished with a jail sentence. The problem is that when these people get caught they get let off and are out stealing the very same afternoon they get arrested. Instant deportation for foreigners caught stealing (or of any crime really) with no right of appeal and exemplary sentences for citizens. Do it for a few months and substantially raise the risk in people's risk/reward calculation. If you have a 100% chance of being let off after being caught then what's the incentive to stop? If you have a 100% chance of getting a 10 year sentence or deportation after being caught people will think twice. The key is to catch them, as you rightly say, but to also action sentencing and deportations rapidly. As in within a few days for deportation and within a weeks for sentencing.

    As soon as word gets out vast majority of it will stop and then you're left with drug addicts and kleptomaniacs. The issue is that ordinary people and gangs see literally no downside risk to stealing at the moment.
    There’s quite a wide gulf between “100% chance of being let off” and “prison sentence”. Prison is a perp finishing school.

    One of the Singapore policies that steers this side of the totalitarian line is punitive, confiscatory fines. Those plus community service plus parental financial liability if the miscreant is under 18 are surely all better options that stuffing the prisons even fuller when prison populations in equivalent European countries with lower crime rates and way lower reoffending rates are so much lower.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,721
    Cookie said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don't really believe this, I think the Greens will win West of England.

    "Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️
    @LeftieStats
    ‼️POLL | Reform LEAD in West of England

    🟣 REF 25% (+25)
    🟢 GRN 24% (+2)
    🔴 LAB 19% (-14)
    🔵 CON 17% (-12)
    🟠 LD 11% (-5)

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 29-30 Apr (+/- vs 2021)"

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1918055428875010093

    I'm surprised how low the LD score is.

    Either way it looks like one of the more interesting contests.
    We were talking about tactical voting in Rumcorn and Helsby earlier - wouls Tories vote Ref tactically to keep out Lab? Or vote Lab tactically to keep out Ref? I suggested they would probably bet best advised to vote Tory.
    But if I was a Tory in the West of England faced with the prospect of a green metro mayor, I'd definifely be voting Reform tactically.
    Would also depend on the nature of the local Tory vote - some Tories hate (and fear) Reform, others are really keen to be friends even if they retain brand loyalty.

    During the post coalition years in the SW it did feel like a lot of the LD vote was already more blue leaning that it was in other areas.

    There only appear to be a handful of Green councillors outside Bristol, so the Tory vote may not be comfortable with the idea of radical inner city green mayor and shoot for Banks instead.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,084

    TimS said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don't really believe this, I think the Greens will win West of England.

    "Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️
    @LeftieStats
    ‼️POLL | Reform LEAD in West of England

    🟣 REF 25% (+25)
    🟢 GRN 24% (+2)
    🔴 LAB 19% (-14)
    🔵 CON 17% (-12)
    🟠 LD 11% (-5)

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 29-30 Apr (+/- vs 2021)"

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1918055428875010093

    I'm surprised how low the LD score is.

    Either way it looks like one of the more interesting contests.
    Greenies have been very popular in Bristol for quite a while. Bath has a Lib Dem MP but she isn't very popular (went backwards at the last GE) and if I remember correctly Green did quite well there too.
    Wera Hobhouse is the MP and I agree, she’s just a bit too eccentric. One of the old school, nice enough but a bit away with the fairies.
    I know somebody who had dealings with her, a natural lib dem voter and came away absolutely incensed with her. Apparently got lectured on Brexit and the Tories, the Tories, Brexit, the Tories after they went to speak to them about something non-political that they needed help with. And then after been lectured to about totally irrelevant issues, was then told to go away couldn't help them. When it really was a classic speak to your MP issue as they can help.

    When I go to visit them if I want to have some fun I only need to mention how's your local MP these days...then I get the 5G conspiracy theorist rant....
    My one personal interaction with her also involved being lectured.
  • Nunu3Nunu3 Posts: 279
    when will the first council seats actually report?
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,318
    edited May 1
    rcs1000 said:

    Re shoplifting, wouldn't it be simplest to allow shops to dispense their own justice? If they want to shoot shoplifters, they should be allowed. If they want to brand people who shoplift, they should be allowed.

    And if people don't want to visit stores that execute shoplifters, then they will not.

    Basically let the market decide.

    Does this not end up in the exact same position we're currently in, but a random selection of falsely accused people get killed every now and again?

    1) Many people, myself included, would refuse to shop at the Execution-Shops. So there would remain Non-Execution-Shops for wet liberals like me who have money but don't like public executions.

    2) The Execution Shops would be very popular with people who dislike shoplifters, but unfortunately very unpopular with shoplifters. But there will always be some false accusations, so sadly some anti-crime shoppers will need to be murdered for the greater good.

    3) Shoplifting continues as normal from Non-Execution shops where no one dies, whilst across the street there is an occasional hanging of an overzealous shopper.

    Selection bias at work once again...
  • gettingbettergettingbetter Posts: 588
    rcs1000 said:

    Re shoplifting, wouldn't it be simplest to allow shops to dispense their own justice? If they want to shoot shoplifters, they should be allowed. If they want to brand people who shoplift, they should be allowed.

    And if people don't want to visit stores that execute shoplifters, then they will not.

    Basically let the market decide.

    I understand your sentiments but this is too extreme, and shooting is absurd, some of these people have spouses and children. Perhaps a sort of electronic branding would work so other shops would be warned if they entered.
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,315
    Cookie said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don't really believe this, I think the Greens will win West of England.

    "Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️
    @LeftieStats
    ‼️POLL | Reform LEAD in West of England

    🟣 REF 25% (+25)
    🟢 GRN 24% (+2)
    🔴 LAB 19% (-14)
    🔵 CON 17% (-12)
    🟠 LD 11% (-5)

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 29-30 Apr (+/- vs 2021)"

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1918055428875010093

    I'm surprised how low the LD score is.

    Either way it looks like one of the more interesting contests.
    We were talking about tactical voting in Rumcorn and Helsby earlier - wouls Tories vote Ref tactically to keep out Lab? Or vote Lab tactically to keep out Ref? I suggested they would probably bet best advised to vote Tory.
    But if I was a Tory in the West of England faced with the prospect of a green metro mayor, I'd definifely be voting Reform tactically.
    Probably some of each. The thing to bear in mind is that the remaining Tory 2024 voters are likely to be older and many will have lost their winter fuel allowance.

    I haven't bet on Runcorn but I would back Ref.

    The pitch for Ref (and also other parties like Green/LD) is "This is a free hit, vote to give Labour a kicking"
    The pitch for Lab is essentially "vote for us to stop a party with 4 MPs from having 5 MPs"
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,799
    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don't really believe this, I think the Greens will win West of England.

    "Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️
    @LeftieStats
    ‼️POLL | Reform LEAD in West of England

    🟣 REF 25% (+25)
    🟢 GRN 24% (+2)
    🔴 LAB 19% (-14)
    🔵 CON 17% (-12)
    🟠 LD 11% (-5)

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 29-30 Apr (+/- vs 2021)"

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1918055428875010093

    I'm surprised how low the LD score is.

    Either way it looks like one of the more interesting contests.
    Greenies have been very popular in Bristol for quite a while. Bath has a Lib Dem MP but she isn't very popular (went backwards at the last GE) and if I remember correctly Green did quite well there too.
    Wera Hobhouse is the MP and I agree, she’s just a bit too eccentric. One of the old school, nice enough but a bit away with the fairies.
    I know somebody who had dealings with her, a natural lib dem voter and came away absolutely incensed with her. Apparently got lectured on Brexit and the Tories, the Tories, Brexit, the Tories after they went to speak to them about something non-political that they needed help with. And then after been lectured to about totally irrelevant issues, was then told to go away couldn't help them. When it really was a classic speak to your MP issue as they can help.

    When I go to visit them if I want to have some fun I only need to mention how's your local MP these days...then I get the 5G conspiracy theorist rant....
    My one personal interaction with her also involved being lectured.
    An interesting political journey:

    "Hobhouse was first elected in 2004 as a Conservative councillor for the ward of Norden on Rochdale Council, Greater Manchester. Her political career in Rochdale was defined by the Spodden Valley asbestos controversy, which was the proposed development of 650 homes on an asbestos-contaminated site.[8] Hobhouse and her husband opposed the proposals, leading them to defect to the Liberal Democrats in 2005. They were criticised at the time for not triggering by-elections to seek fresh mandates as Liberal Democrat councillors.[9][10] The development was successfully blocked in 2011.[11]"
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,874
    TimS said:

    MaxPB said:

    TimS said:

    MaxPB said:

    Ratters said:

    Regarding shoplifting:

    Can we have a system a bit like speeding tickets where it is a civil offence with increasing fines without the need for being proven guilty beyond reasonable doubt and clogging up the courts?

    CCTV catches you stealing? Fine 50x value of items, or £1,000, whichever is highest. Maybe subject to a maximum. If you appeal it's done on balance of probabilities.

    Repeat offenders see higher fines and eventually a criminal case. But we need speedy justice for low level crime to deter this sort of shit.

    Stick them in the clink for 20+ years, deport the foreigners and have done with them. A few exemplary sentences ought to be enough. Do it for a few months and then any outbreak of thieving do it again, after a few rounds the problem will resolve itself. Make a big song and dance over the extra long sentencing and deportations, have the PM tell the nation that we won't stand for it and actually mean it. Fuck the do gooders and human rights brigade if they pipe up.
    Long sentences haven't proven much of a deterrent in the US.

    I think what works is increasing the rate of conviction, and reducing the time from offence to conviction. The response to the riots should be a guide here. You could have specialist courts set up to prosecute these cases quickly. Speed up the whole process. Once people get the message that there will be consequences pretty soon, the consequences themselves don't necessarily have to be as severe as a couple of decades in the clink.
    Absolutely. Policing: knowing you’ll get caught. If there’s a low risk of getting caught then the sentence is irrelevant. Just catch the fuckers.
    But when they get caught they actually need to be punished with a jail sentence. The problem is that when these people get caught they get let off and are out stealing the very same afternoon they get arrested. Instant deportation for foreigners caught stealing (or of any crime really) with no right of appeal and exemplary sentences for citizens. Do it for a few months and substantially raise the risk in people's risk/reward calculation. If you have a 100% chance of being let off after being caught then what's the incentive to stop? If you have a 100% chance of getting a 10 year sentence or deportation after being caught people will think twice. The key is to catch them, as you rightly say, but to also action sentencing and deportations rapidly. As in within a few days for deportation and within a weeks for sentencing.

    As soon as word gets out vast majority of it will stop and then you're left with drug addicts and kleptomaniacs. The issue is that ordinary people and gangs see literally no downside risk to stealing at the moment.
    There’s quite a wide gulf between “100% chance of being let off” and “prison sentence”. Prison is a perp finishing school.

    One of the Singapore policies that steers this side of the totalitarian line is punitive, confiscatory fines. Those plus community service plus parental financial liability if the miscreant is under 18 are surely all better options that stuffing the prisons even fuller when prison populations in equivalent European countries with lower crime rates and way lower reoffending rates are so much lower.
    We have a much more broken society than much of Europe. Our values system is broken and the social contract is breaking in real time. The easy thing we can do is suspend article 8 rights for foreign criminals and use instant deportation and lifetime no right of return using biometrics to block them from ever re-entering. The more difficult thing we need to do is bring the many, many millions of people who see petty and minor crimes and not really crime back into the real world. Fines they won't ever pay won't do it. Crime needs to have real risk attached to it again and there's a disconnect between what a law abiding society expects of each other and what we actually have today.

    I'm serious when I say we should instantly deport any foreigners caught in any kind of crime, even "minor" stuff like fare evasion. We gain nothing from their presence in the country and we're becoming a joke.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,721
    carnforth said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don't really believe this, I think the Greens will win West of England.

    "Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️
    @LeftieStats
    ‼️POLL | Reform LEAD in West of England

    🟣 REF 25% (+25)
    🟢 GRN 24% (+2)
    🔴 LAB 19% (-14)
    🔵 CON 17% (-12)
    🟠 LD 11% (-5)

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 29-30 Apr (+/- vs 2021)"

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1918055428875010093

    I'm surprised how low the LD score is.

    Either way it looks like one of the more interesting contests.
    Greenies have been very popular in Bristol for quite a while. Bath has a Lib Dem MP but she isn't very popular (went backwards at the last GE) and if I remember correctly Green did quite well there too.
    Wera Hobhouse is the MP and I agree, she’s just a bit too eccentric. One of the old school, nice enough but a bit away with the fairies.
    I know somebody who had dealings with her, a natural lib dem voter and came away absolutely incensed with her. Apparently got lectured on Brexit and the Tories, the Tories, Brexit, the Tories after they went to speak to them about something non-political that they needed help with. And then after been lectured to about totally irrelevant issues, was then told to go away couldn't help them. When it really was a classic speak to your MP issue as they can help.

    When I go to visit them if I want to have some fun I only need to mention how's your local MP these days...then I get the 5G conspiracy theorist rant....
    My one personal interaction with her also involved being lectured.
    An interesting political journey:

    "Hobhouse was first elected in 2004 as a Conservative councillor for the ward of Norden on Rochdale Council, Greater Manchester. Her political career in Rochdale was defined by the Spodden Valley asbestos controversy, which was the proposed development of 650 homes on an asbestos-contaminated site.[8] Hobhouse and her husband opposed the proposals, leading them to defect to the Liberal Democrats in 2005. They were criticised at the time for not triggering by-elections to seek fresh mandates as Liberal Democrat councillors.[9][10] The development was successfully blocked in 2011.[11]"
    6 years from proposal to blocking, even holding things up (justified or unjustified) takes bloody years.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,588
    Ratters said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Re shoplifting, wouldn't it be simplest to allow shops to dispense their own justice? If they want to shoot shoplifters, they should be allowed. If they want to brand people who shoplift, they should be allowed.

    And if people don't want to visit stores that execute shoplifters, then they will not.

    Basically let the market decide.

    Does this not end up in the exact same position we're currently in, but a random selection of falsely accused people get killed every now and again?

    1) Many people, myself included, would refuse to shop at the Execution-Shops. So there would remain Non-Execution-Shops for wet liberals like me who have money but don't like public executions.

    2) The Execution Shops would be very popular with people who dislike shoplifters, but unfortunately very unpopular with shoplifters. But there will always be some false accusations, so sadly some anti-crime shoppers will need to be murdered for the greater good.

    3) Shoplifting continues as normal from Non-Execution shops where no one dies, whilst across the street there is an occasional hanging of an overzealous shopper.

    Selection bias at work once again...
    I'm struggling to see the problem. If you choose to shop in an execution store, you're choosing to take the risk that they might mistake you for a shoplifter.

    Against that, the goods will probably be slightly cheaper, because there will be less wastage.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,690
    isam said:

    Spent the last few days on the election trail. Anecdotal, obviously. But hardly found anyone who wasn’t voting Reform.

    https://x.com/dpjhodges/status/1918049399038505031?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    meaningless unless we know where he went
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,961

    rcs1000 said:

    Re shoplifting, wouldn't it be simplest to allow shops to dispense their own justice? If they want to shoot shoplifters, they should be allowed. If they want to brand people who shoplift, they should be allowed.

    And if people don't want to visit stores that execute shoplifters, then they will not.

    Basically let the market decide.

    I understand your sentiments but this is too extreme, and shooting is absurd, some of these people have spouses and children. Perhaps a sort of electronic branding would work so other shops would be warned if they entered.
    Auto-locking lobby entrances.

    Leave them on full display all day. If it reaches 50C in there, well, so be it.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,438
    Ratters said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Re shoplifting, wouldn't it be simplest to allow shops to dispense their own justice? If they want to shoot shoplifters, they should be allowed. If they want to brand people who shoplift, they should be allowed.

    And if people don't want to visit stores that execute shoplifters, then they will not.

    Basically let the market decide.

    Does this not end up in the exact same position we're currently in, but a random selection of falsely accused people get killed every now and again?

    1) Many people, myself included, would refuse to shop at the Execution-Shops. So there would remain Non-Execution-Shops for wet liberals like me who have money but don't like public executions.

    2) The Execution Shops would be very popular with people who dislike shoplifters, but unfortunately very unpopular with shoplifters. But there will always be some false accusations, so sadly some anti-crime shoppers will need to be murdered for the greater good.

    3) Shoplifting continues as normal from Non-Execution shops where no one dies, whilst across the street there is an occasional hanging of an overzealous shopper.

    Selection bias at work once again...
    Richard Madeley a goner.
    Oh well, we’ll just have to bear up.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,799
    carnforth said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don't really believe this, I think the Greens will win West of England.

    "Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️
    @LeftieStats
    ‼️POLL | Reform LEAD in West of England

    🟣 REF 25% (+25)
    🟢 GRN 24% (+2)
    🔴 LAB 19% (-14)
    🔵 CON 17% (-12)
    🟠 LD 11% (-5)

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 29-30 Apr (+/- vs 2021)"

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1918055428875010093

    I'm surprised how low the LD score is.

    Either way it looks like one of the more interesting contests.
    Greenies have been very popular in Bristol for quite a while. Bath has a Lib Dem MP but she isn't very popular (went backwards at the last GE) and if I remember correctly Green did quite well there too.
    Wera Hobhouse is the MP and I agree, she’s just a bit too eccentric. One of the old school, nice enough but a bit away with the fairies.
    I know somebody who had dealings with her, a natural lib dem voter and came away absolutely incensed with her. Apparently got lectured on Brexit and the Tories, the Tories, Brexit, the Tories after they went to speak to them about something non-political that they needed help with. And then after been lectured to about totally irrelevant issues, was then told to go away couldn't help them. When it really was a classic speak to your MP issue as they can help.

    When I go to visit them if I want to have some fun I only need to mention how's your local MP these days...then I get the 5G conspiracy theorist rant....
    My one personal interaction with her also involved being lectured.
    An interesting political journey:

    "Hobhouse was first elected in 2004 as a Conservative councillor for the ward of Norden on Rochdale Council, Greater Manchester. Her political career in Rochdale was defined by the Spodden Valley asbestos controversy, which was the proposed development of 650 homes on an asbestos-contaminated site.[8] Hobhouse and her husband opposed the proposals, leading them to defect to the Liberal Democrats in 2005. They were criticised at the time for not triggering by-elections to seek fresh mandates as Liberal Democrat councillors.[9][10] The development was successfully blocked in 2011.[11]"
    Her husband does run a manufacturing firm though, so I warm to him:

    https://compotex.com/
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,095
    I AM COMPLETELY FUCKED ON GASCAKE

    London is my town. I love it. London is going down

    Like all of the west

    But I will not abandon her, this is my city, Camden is insane, why can’t we put a Jew on the moon, I’m here for the end. To see it all end

    Never eat Kyrgyz cheese
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,740
    edited May 1
    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don't really believe this, I think the Greens will win West of England.

    "Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️
    @LeftieStats
    ‼️POLL | Reform LEAD in West of England

    🟣 REF 25% (+25)
    🟢 GRN 24% (+2)
    🔴 LAB 19% (-14)
    🔵 CON 17% (-12)
    🟠 LD 11% (-5)

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 29-30 Apr (+/- vs 2021)"

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1918055428875010093

    I'm surprised how low the LD score is.

    Either way it looks like one of the more interesting contests.
    Greenies have been very popular in Bristol for quite a while. Bath has a Lib Dem MP but she isn't very popular (went backwards at the last GE) and if I remember correctly Green did quite well there too.
    Wera Hobhouse is the MP and I agree, she’s just a bit too eccentric. One of the old school, nice enough but a bit away with the fairies.
    I know somebody who had dealings with her, a natural lib dem voter and came away absolutely incensed with her. Apparently got lectured on Brexit and the Tories, the Tories, Brexit, the Tories after they went to speak to them about something non-political that they needed help with. And then after been lectured to about totally irrelevant issues, was then told to go away couldn't help them. When it really was a classic speak to your MP issue as they can help.

    When I go to visit them if I want to have some fun I only need to mention how's your local MP these days...then I get the 5G conspiracy theorist rant....
    My one personal interaction with her also involved being lectured.
    At one point, Mrs U job involved a quite a lot of interaction with politicians. Norman Lamb got top marks for the yellow peril team from her (and this was before the story of how he remortgaged his house to support Tinchy Stryder early career and sad story of his son struggles).
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,084
    edited May 1
    MaxPB said:

    TimS said:

    MaxPB said:

    TimS said:

    MaxPB said:

    Ratters said:

    Regarding shoplifting:

    Can we have a system a bit like speeding tickets where it is a civil offence with increasing fines without the need for being proven guilty beyond reasonable doubt and clogging up the courts?

    CCTV catches you stealing? Fine 50x value of items, or £1,000, whichever is highest. Maybe subject to a maximum. If you appeal it's done on balance of probabilities.

    Repeat offenders see higher fines and eventually a criminal case. But we need speedy justice for low level crime to deter this sort of shit.

    Stick them in the clink for 20+ years, deport the foreigners and have done with them. A few exemplary sentences ought to be enough. Do it for a few months and then any outbreak of thieving do it again, after a few rounds the problem will resolve itself. Make a big song and dance over the extra long sentencing and deportations, have the PM tell the nation that we won't stand for it and actually mean it. Fuck the do gooders and human rights brigade if they pipe up.
    Long sentences haven't proven much of a deterrent in the US.

    I think what works is increasing the rate of conviction, and reducing the time from offence to conviction. The response to the riots should be a guide here. You could have specialist courts set up to prosecute these cases quickly. Speed up the whole process. Once people get the message that there will be consequences pretty soon, the consequences themselves don't necessarily have to be as severe as a couple of decades in the clink.
    Absolutely. Policing: knowing you’ll get caught. If there’s a low risk of getting caught then the sentence is irrelevant. Just catch the fuckers.
    But when they get caught they actually need to be punished with a jail sentence. The problem is that when these people get caught they get let off and are out stealing the very same afternoon they get arrested. Instant deportation for foreigners caught stealing (or of any crime really) with no right of appeal and exemplary sentences for citizens. Do it for a few months and substantially raise the risk in people's risk/reward calculation. If you have a 100% chance of being let off after being caught then what's the incentive to stop? If you have a 100% chance of getting a 10 year sentence or deportation after being caught people will think twice. The key is to catch them, as you rightly say, but to also action sentencing and deportations rapidly. As in within a few days for deportation and within a weeks for sentencing.

    As soon as word gets out vast majority of it will stop and then you're left with drug addicts and kleptomaniacs. The issue is that ordinary people and gangs see literally no downside risk to stealing at the moment.
    There’s quite a wide gulf between “100% chance of being let off” and “prison sentence”. Prison is a perp finishing school.

    One of the Singapore policies that steers this side of the totalitarian line is punitive, confiscatory fines. Those plus community service plus parental financial liability if the miscreant is under 18 are surely all better options that stuffing the prisons even fuller when prison populations in equivalent European countries with lower crime rates and way lower reoffending rates are so much lower.
    We have a much more broken society than much of Europe. Our values system is broken and the social contract is breaking in real time. The easy thing we can do is suspend article 8 rights for foreign criminals and use instant deportation and lifetime no right of return using biometrics to block them from ever re-entering. The more difficult thing we need to do is bring the many, many millions of people who see petty and minor crimes and not really crime back into the real world. Fines they won't ever pay won't do it. Crime needs to have real risk attached to it again and there's a disconnect between what a law abiding society expects of each other and what we actually have today.

    I'm serious when I say we should instantly deport any foreigners caught in any kind of crime, even "minor" stuff like fare evasion. We gain nothing from their presence in the country and we're becoming a joke.
    Though on shoplifting we seem to be in line with the rest of Europe. On violent crime we are worse than most, except France. Yet on incarceration rates we are way ahead. And the vast majority of criminals are proudly home grown.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,690
    Turns on TV.

    Finds Laura K has been selected by the geniuses at the bbc to front the whole election night.

    Listens to three minutes of dumbed down platitudinal nonsense about how not all places have elections.

    Goes back to the Internet...

    Am I alone?

  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,284
    Coincidence? As I walked north from the local Google campus, I came to an area with ditches alongside the old railroad right of way. The ditches were filled with water -- and more than a few male frogs going "ribbett".

    For the same reason those pop stars you were discussing earlier today, sang. Perhaps your discussion inspired the frogs. (Sadly, when I came back through the area almost two hours later, the concert was ended.)
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,318
    rcs1000 said:

    Ratters said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Re shoplifting, wouldn't it be simplest to allow shops to dispense their own justice? If they want to shoot shoplifters, they should be allowed. If they want to brand people who shoplift, they should be allowed.

    And if people don't want to visit stores that execute shoplifters, then they will not.

    Basically let the market decide.

    Does this not end up in the exact same position we're currently in, but a random selection of falsely accused people get killed every now and again?

    1) Many people, myself included, would refuse to shop at the Execution-Shops. So there would remain Non-Execution-Shops for wet liberals like me who have money but don't like public executions.

    2) The Execution Shops would be very popular with people who dislike shoplifters, but unfortunately very unpopular with shoplifters. But there will always be some false accusations, so sadly some anti-crime shoppers will need to be murdered for the greater good.

    3) Shoplifting continues as normal from Non-Execution shops where no one dies, whilst across the street there is an occasional hanging of an overzealous shopper.

    Selection bias at work once again...
    I'm struggling to see the problem. If you choose to shop in an execution store, you're choosing to take the risk that they might mistake you for a shoplifter.

    Against that, the goods will probably be slightly cheaper, because there will be less wastage.
    I was going to say that I'm not convinced that the market for "3%-cheaper-goods-with-a-small-risk-of-public-execution" would be rather small, but then I remembered Trump is President and Reform are going to win the most seats tomorrow, so I suspect it'd be a very strong business idea. If only Labour weren't stifling local businesses with red tape that is holding back growth by preventing them from murdering customers for suspected misdemeanours.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,740

    Coincidence? As I walked north from the local Google campus, I came to an area with ditches alongside the old railroad right of way. The ditches were filled with water -- and more than a few male frogs going "ribbett".

    For the same reason those pop stars you were discussing earlier today, sang. Perhaps your discussion inspired the frogs. (Sadly, when I came back through the area almost two hours later, the concert was ended.)

    You been on that gascake as well?
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,705
    Leon said:

    I AM COMPLETELY FUCKED ON GASCAKE

    London is my town. I love it. London is going down

    Like all of the west

    But I will not abandon her, this is my city, Camden is insane, why can’t we put a Jew on the moon, I’m here for the end. To see it all end

    Never eat Kyrgyz cheese

    I remember smoking carpet strands and cocodamol once, in a joint held together with Evostik, when we desperate in the early 90s.

    Clearly not up there with Kyrgyz cheese.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,890
    edited May 1
    Nunu3 said:

    when will the first council seats actually report?

    Most seats and councils counting tomorrow.

    Think we're get the by election tonight, though?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,084

    Coincidence? As I walked north from the local Google campus, I came to an area with ditches alongside the old railroad right of way. The ditches were filled with water -- and more than a few male frogs going "ribbett".

    For the same reason those pop stars you were discussing earlier today, sang. Perhaps your discussion inspired the frogs. (Sadly, when I came back through the area almost two hours later, the concert was ended.)

    That’s up there with Cantona’s seagulls.

    As it happens I was on the local Google campus on Tuesday, in Chicago. No frogs (species, not nationality).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,721

    Turns on TV.

    Finds Laura K has been selected by the geniuses at the bbc to front the whole election night.

    Listens to three minutes of dumbed down platitudinal nonsense about how not all places have elections.

    Goes back to the Internet...

    Am I alone?

    Election programs are weird. The truly engaged will probably find them to be trite and lacking in substance, as presumably they feel the need to cater to at least some sector of the otherwise not very engaged.

    But if you are engaged enough to tune in you probably find it still a bit overly jargony and detailed focused as you really just want to know broad themes and the outcome.
  • vikvik Posts: 306
    TimS said:

    MaxPB said:

    TimS said:

    MaxPB said:

    Ratters said:

    Regarding shoplifting:

    Can we have a system a bit like speeding tickets where it is a civil offence with increasing fines without the need for being proven guilty beyond reasonable doubt and clogging up the courts?

    CCTV catches you stealing? Fine 50x value of items, or £1,000, whichever is highest. Maybe subject to a maximum. If you appeal it's done on balance of probabilities.

    Repeat offenders see higher fines and eventually a criminal case. But we need speedy justice for low level crime to deter this sort of shit.

    Stick them in the clink for 20+ years, deport the foreigners and have done with them. A few exemplary sentences ought to be enough. Do it for a few months and then any outbreak of thieving do it again, after a few rounds the problem will resolve itself. Make a big song and dance over the extra long sentencing and deportations, have the PM tell the nation that we won't stand for it and actually mean it. Fuck the do gooders and human rights brigade if they pipe up.
    Long sentences haven't proven much of a deterrent in the US.

    I think what works is increasing the rate of conviction, and reducing the time from offence to conviction. The response to the riots should be a guide here. You could have specialist courts set up to prosecute these cases quickly. Speed up the whole process. Once people get the message that there will be consequences pretty soon, the consequences themselves don't necessarily have to be as severe as a couple of decades in the clink.
    Absolutely. Policing: knowing you’ll get caught. If there’s a low risk of getting caught then the sentence is irrelevant. Just catch the fuckers.
    But when they get caught they actually need to be punished with a jail sentence. The problem is that when these people get caught they get let off and are out stealing the very same afternoon they get arrested. Instant deportation for foreigners caught stealing (or of any crime really) with no right of appeal and exemplary sentences for citizens. Do it for a few months and substantially raise the risk in people's risk/reward calculation. If you have a 100% chance of being let off after being caught then what's the incentive to stop? If you have a 100% chance of getting a 10 year sentence or deportation after being caught people will think twice. The key is to catch them, as you rightly say, but to also action sentencing and deportations rapidly. As in within a few days for deportation and within a weeks for sentencing.

    As soon as word gets out vast majority of it will stop and then you're left with drug addicts and kleptomaniacs. The issue is that ordinary people and gangs see literally no downside risk to stealing at the moment.
    There’s quite a wide gulf between “100% chance of being let off” and “prison sentence”. Prison is a perp finishing school.

    One of the Singapore policies that steers this side of the totalitarian line is punitive, confiscatory fines. Those plus community service plus parental financial liability if the miscreant is under 18 are surely all better options that stuffing the prisons even fuller when prison populations in equivalent European countries with lower crime rates and way lower reoffending rates are so much lower.
    Shoplifting can be easily stopped if shops just hired more security to watch people.

    Only a mentally ill person would shoplift something if there's a burly security guard standing there watching you do it.

    And yes, that would result in prices going up, but it would also result in more direct job creation.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,084
    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    I AM COMPLETELY FUCKED ON GASCAKE

    London is my town. I love it. London is going down

    Like all of the west

    But I will not abandon her, this is my city, Camden is insane, why can’t we put a Jew on the moon, I’m here for the end. To see it all end

    Never eat Kyrgyz cheese

    I remember smoking carpet strands and cocodamol once, in a joint held together with Evostik, when we desperate in the early 90s.

    Clearly not up there with Kyrgyz cheese.

    Vodka and Calpol. Unbeatable.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,705

    Turns on TV.

    Finds Laura K has been selected by the geniuses at the bbc to front the whole election night.

    Listens to three minutes of dumbed down platitudinal nonsense about how not all places have elections.

    Goes back to the Internet...

    Am I alone?

    Getting the value out of that ChatGPT subscription though :



    "Certainly! I can write some boiler-plate text about an election!..."
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,248
    edited May 1
    vik said:

    TimS said:

    MaxPB said:

    TimS said:

    MaxPB said:

    Ratters said:

    Regarding shoplifting:

    Can we have a system a bit like speeding tickets where it is a civil offence with increasing fines without the need for being proven guilty beyond reasonable doubt and clogging up the courts?

    CCTV catches you stealing? Fine 50x value of items, or £1,000, whichever is highest. Maybe subject to a maximum. If you appeal it's done on balance of probabilities.

    Repeat offenders see higher fines and eventually a criminal case. But we need speedy justice for low level crime to deter this sort of shit.

    Stick them in the clink for 20+ years, deport the foreigners and have done with them. A few exemplary sentences ought to be enough. Do it for a few months and then any outbreak of thieving do it again, after a few rounds the problem will resolve itself. Make a big song and dance over the extra long sentencing and deportations, have the PM tell the nation that we won't stand for it and actually mean it. Fuck the do gooders and human rights brigade if they pipe up.
    Long sentences haven't proven much of a deterrent in the US.

    I think what works is increasing the rate of conviction, and reducing the time from offence to conviction. The response to the riots should be a guide here. You could have specialist courts set up to prosecute these cases quickly. Speed up the whole process. Once people get the message that there will be consequences pretty soon, the consequences themselves don't necessarily have to be as severe as a couple of decades in the clink.
    Absolutely. Policing: knowing you’ll get caught. If there’s a low risk of getting caught then the sentence is irrelevant. Just catch the fuckers.
    But when they get caught they actually need to be punished with a jail sentence. The problem is that when these people get caught they get let off and are out stealing the very same afternoon they get arrested. Instant deportation for foreigners caught stealing (or of any crime really) with no right of appeal and exemplary sentences for citizens. Do it for a few months and substantially raise the risk in people's risk/reward calculation. If you have a 100% chance of being let off after being caught then what's the incentive to stop? If you have a 100% chance of getting a 10 year sentence or deportation after being caught people will think twice. The key is to catch them, as you rightly say, but to also action sentencing and deportations rapidly. As in within a few days for deportation and within a weeks for sentencing.

    As soon as word gets out vast majority of it will stop and then you're left with drug addicts and kleptomaniacs. The issue is that ordinary people and gangs see literally no downside risk to stealing at the moment.
    There’s quite a wide gulf between “100% chance of being let off” and “prison sentence”. Prison is a perp finishing school.

    One of the Singapore policies that steers this side of the totalitarian line is punitive, confiscatory fines. Those plus community service plus parental financial liability if the miscreant is under 18 are surely all better options that stuffing the prisons even fuller when prison populations in equivalent European countries with lower crime rates and way lower reoffending rates are so much lower.
    Shoplifting can be easily stopped if shops just hired more security to watch people.

    Only a mentally ill person would shoplift something if there's a burly security guard standing there watching you do it.

    And yes, that would result in prices going up, but it would also result in more direct job creation.
    Some do it right in front of the staff and security, particularly the kids.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,084
    edited May 1
    Eabhal said:

    vik said:

    TimS said:

    MaxPB said:

    TimS said:

    MaxPB said:

    Ratters said:

    Regarding shoplifting:

    Can we have a system a bit like speeding tickets where it is a civil offence with increasing fines without the need for being proven guilty beyond reasonable doubt and clogging up the courts?

    CCTV catches you stealing? Fine 50x value of items, or £1,000, whichever is highest. Maybe subject to a maximum. If you appeal it's done on balance of probabilities.

    Repeat offenders see higher fines and eventually a criminal case. But we need speedy justice for low level crime to deter this sort of shit.

    Stick them in the clink for 20+ years, deport the foreigners and have done with them. A few exemplary sentences ought to be enough. Do it for a few months and then any outbreak of thieving do it again, after a few rounds the problem will resolve itself. Make a big song and dance over the extra long sentencing and deportations, have the PM tell the nation that we won't stand for it and actually mean it. Fuck the do gooders and human rights brigade if they pipe up.
    Long sentences haven't proven much of a deterrent in the US.

    I think what works is increasing the rate of conviction, and reducing the time from offence to conviction. The response to the riots should be a guide here. You could have specialist courts set up to prosecute these cases quickly. Speed up the whole process. Once people get the message that there will be consequences pretty soon, the consequences themselves don't necessarily have to be as severe as a couple of decades in the clink.
    Absolutely. Policing: knowing you’ll get caught. If there’s a low risk of getting caught then the sentence is irrelevant. Just catch the fuckers.
    But when they get caught they actually need to be punished with a jail sentence. The problem is that when these people get caught they get let off and are out stealing the very same afternoon they get arrested. Instant deportation for foreigners caught stealing (or of any crime really) with no right of appeal and exemplary sentences for citizens. Do it for a few months and substantially raise the risk in people's risk/reward calculation. If you have a 100% chance of being let off after being caught then what's the incentive to stop? If you have a 100% chance of getting a 10 year sentence or deportation after being caught people will think twice. The key is to catch them, as you rightly say, but to also action sentencing and deportations rapidly. As in within a few days for deportation and within a weeks for sentencing.

    As soon as word gets out vast majority of it will stop and then you're left with drug addicts and kleptomaniacs. The issue is that ordinary people and gangs see literally no downside risk to stealing at the moment.
    There’s quite a wide gulf between “100% chance of being let off” and “prison sentence”. Prison is a perp finishing school.

    One of the Singapore policies that steers this side of the totalitarian line is punitive, confiscatory fines. Those plus community service plus parental financial liability if the miscreant is under 18 are surely all better options that stuffing the prisons even fuller when prison populations in equivalent European countries with lower crime rates and way lower reoffending rates are so much lower.
    Shoplifting can be easily stopped if shops just hired more security to watch people.

    Only a mentally ill person would shoplift something if there's a burly security guard standing there watching you do it.

    And yes, that would result in prices going up, but it would also result in more direct job creation.
    Some do it right in front of the staff and security, particularly the kids.
    But most, and I say this as a parent of children who have at least some acquaintances who’ve dabbled, would shit themselves if they thought there was a risk of actually being caught and prosecuted.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,690
    Leon said:

    I AM COMPLETELY FUCKED ON GASCAKE

    London is my town. I love it. London is going down

    Like all of the west

    But I will not abandon her, this is my city, Camden is insane, why can’t we put a Jew on the moon, I’m here for the end. To see it all end

    Never eat Kyrgyz cheese

    LOL.

    Pretty sure it is only three days or so since you told us England was utterly and totally finished and London even more so as it drowns under a wave of migrant criminals and you were never going to leave the litter and graffiti free streets of Tashkent.

    Still, a week is a long time in politics. :smiley:
  • Nunu3Nunu3 Posts: 279
    Throston (Hartlepool) Council By-Election Result: RFM: 58.3% (+42.1) LAB: 31.8% (-30.6) CON: 9.9% (-11.5) Reform GAIN from Labour. Changes w/ 2024.

    bloodbath incoming?
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,961
    Eabhal said:

    vik said:

    TimS said:

    MaxPB said:

    TimS said:

    MaxPB said:

    Ratters said:

    Regarding shoplifting:

    Can we have a system a bit like speeding tickets where it is a civil offence with increasing fines without the need for being proven guilty beyond reasonable doubt and clogging up the courts?

    CCTV catches you stealing? Fine 50x value of items, or £1,000, whichever is highest. Maybe subject to a maximum. If you appeal it's done on balance of probabilities.

    Repeat offenders see higher fines and eventually a criminal case. But we need speedy justice for low level crime to deter this sort of shit.

    Stick them in the clink for 20+ years, deport the foreigners and have done with them. A few exemplary sentences ought to be enough. Do it for a few months and then any outbreak of thieving do it again, after a few rounds the problem will resolve itself. Make a big song and dance over the extra long sentencing and deportations, have the PM tell the nation that we won't stand for it and actually mean it. Fuck the do gooders and human rights brigade if they pipe up.
    Long sentences haven't proven much of a deterrent in the US.

    I think what works is increasing the rate of conviction, and reducing the time from offence to conviction. The response to the riots should be a guide here. You could have specialist courts set up to prosecute these cases quickly. Speed up the whole process. Once people get the message that there will be consequences pretty soon, the consequences themselves don't necessarily have to be as severe as a couple of decades in the clink.
    Absolutely. Policing: knowing you’ll get caught. If there’s a low risk of getting caught then the sentence is irrelevant. Just catch the fuckers.
    But when they get caught they actually need to be punished with a jail sentence. The problem is that when these people get caught they get let off and are out stealing the very same afternoon they get arrested. Instant deportation for foreigners caught stealing (or of any crime really) with no right of appeal and exemplary sentences for citizens. Do it for a few months and substantially raise the risk in people's risk/reward calculation. If you have a 100% chance of being let off after being caught then what's the incentive to stop? If you have a 100% chance of getting a 10 year sentence or deportation after being caught people will think twice. The key is to catch them, as you rightly say, but to also action sentencing and deportations rapidly. As in within a few days for deportation and within a weeks for sentencing.

    As soon as word gets out vast majority of it will stop and then you're left with drug addicts and kleptomaniacs. The issue is that ordinary people and gangs see literally no downside risk to stealing at the moment.
    There’s quite a wide gulf between “100% chance of being let off” and “prison sentence”. Prison is a perp finishing school.

    One of the Singapore policies that steers this side of the totalitarian line is punitive, confiscatory fines. Those plus community service plus parental financial liability if the miscreant is under 18 are surely all better options that stuffing the prisons even fuller when prison populations in equivalent European countries with lower crime rates and way lower reoffending rates are so much lower.
    Shoplifting can be easily stopped if shops just hired more security to watch people.

    Only a mentally ill person would shoplift something if there's a burly security guard standing there watching you do it.

    And yes, that would result in prices going up, but it would also result in more direct job creation.
    Some do it right in front of the staff and security, particularly the kids.
    Perhaps we'll just have to go back to Open All Hours style shopping, where everything is behind the counter.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,248
    ohnotnow said:

    Turns on TV.

    Finds Laura K has been selected by the geniuses at the bbc to front the whole election night.

    Listens to three minutes of dumbed down platitudinal nonsense about how not all places have elections.

    Goes back to the Internet...

    Am I alone?

    Getting the value out of that ChatGPT subscription though :



    "Certainly! I can write some boiler-plate text about an election!..."
    We need more abrasive journalism in this country. "You'd have to be seriously odd to stay up for this one". "This has almost no effect on anything", "It's impossible to come to any sensible political analysis from this disparate set of results".
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,890
    I think I'd have voted for REF in Runcorn as Labour deserve to lose the seat after their MP decided to attack a member of the public.

    I wouldn't vote REF in Runcorn in a general election...
  • vikvik Posts: 306
    Eabhal said:

    vik said:

    TimS said:

    MaxPB said:

    TimS said:

    MaxPB said:

    Ratters said:

    Regarding shoplifting:

    Can we have a system a bit like speeding tickets where it is a civil offence with increasing fines without the need for being proven guilty beyond reasonable doubt and clogging up the courts?

    CCTV catches you stealing? Fine 50x value of items, or £1,000, whichever is highest. Maybe subject to a maximum. If you appeal it's done on balance of probabilities.

    Repeat offenders see higher fines and eventually a criminal case. But we need speedy justice for low level crime to deter this sort of shit.

    Stick them in the clink for 20+ years, deport the foreigners and have done with them. A few exemplary sentences ought to be enough. Do it for a few months and then any outbreak of thieving do it again, after a few rounds the problem will resolve itself. Make a big song and dance over the extra long sentencing and deportations, have the PM tell the nation that we won't stand for it and actually mean it. Fuck the do gooders and human rights brigade if they pipe up.
    Long sentences haven't proven much of a deterrent in the US.

    I think what works is increasing the rate of conviction, and reducing the time from offence to conviction. The response to the riots should be a guide here. You could have specialist courts set up to prosecute these cases quickly. Speed up the whole process. Once people get the message that there will be consequences pretty soon, the consequences themselves don't necessarily have to be as severe as a couple of decades in the clink.
    Absolutely. Policing: knowing you’ll get caught. If there’s a low risk of getting caught then the sentence is irrelevant. Just catch the fuckers.
    But when they get caught they actually need to be punished with a jail sentence. The problem is that when these people get caught they get let off and are out stealing the very same afternoon they get arrested. Instant deportation for foreigners caught stealing (or of any crime really) with no right of appeal and exemplary sentences for citizens. Do it for a few months and substantially raise the risk in people's risk/reward calculation. If you have a 100% chance of being let off after being caught then what's the incentive to stop? If you have a 100% chance of getting a 10 year sentence or deportation after being caught people will think twice. The key is to catch them, as you rightly say, but to also action sentencing and deportations rapidly. As in within a few days for deportation and within a weeks for sentencing.

    As soon as word gets out vast majority of it will stop and then you're left with drug addicts and kleptomaniacs. The issue is that ordinary people and gangs see literally no downside risk to stealing at the moment.
    There’s quite a wide gulf between “100% chance of being let off” and “prison sentence”. Prison is a perp finishing school.

    One of the Singapore policies that steers this side of the totalitarian line is punitive, confiscatory fines. Those plus community service plus parental financial liability if the miscreant is under 18 are surely all better options that stuffing the prisons even fuller when prison populations in equivalent European countries with lower crime rates and way lower reoffending rates are so much lower.
    Shoplifting can be easily stopped if shops just hired more security to watch people.

    Only a mentally ill person would shoplift something if there's a burly security guard standing there watching you do it.

    And yes, that would result in prices going up, but it would also result in more direct job creation.
    Some do it right in front of the staff and security, particularly the kids.
    Yes, I guess it's a problem if the guards aren't armed.

    If they guards really burly & scary-looking, then even many of the kids might be reluctant to steal.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,084
    Nunu3 said:

    Throston (Hartlepool) Council By-Election Result: RFM: 58.3% (+42.1) LAB: 31.8% (-30.6) CON: 9.9% (-11.5) Reform GAIN from Labour. Changes w/ 2024.

    bloodbath incoming?

    Bloodbath
    Incoming
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,630
    Nunu3 said:

    Throston (Hartlepool) Council By-Election Result: RFM: 58.3% (+42.1) LAB: 31.8% (-30.6) CON: 9.9% (-11.5) Reform GAIN from Labour. Changes w/ 2024.

    bloodbath incoming?

    That is … quite something. I would not be surprised if Reform take Northumberland, as well as Durham.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,095
    I think, as @rcs1000 professionally suggests; that this so-called “gascake” is just a form of Californian weed, albeit it arrives in the uk as a light brown powder, akin to calfskin smack

    If you smoke it by the twilit river at Richmond upon Thames along with an old friend and two bottles of excellent Spanish rose and a slow release Tramadol 100mg and a dose of jet lag from Bishkek Kyrgyzstan then you feel quite exceptionally happy. Also irritated. Yet happy

    🤷🏼‍♂️
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,705
    As the BBC's live news has just given me the momentous news that :

    Doncaster looks like a three-horse race, says Labour insider

    I think I will give up for the night. And a Janice Joplin performance I hadn't come across before courtesy of YT's random algorithm :

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=htBMVERLGpc
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,084
    Oh shit, politicians of all stripes are going to be taking “lessons” from these elections aren’t they? Which are to be substance-free culture warriors.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,248

    Eabhal said:

    vik said:

    TimS said:

    MaxPB said:

    TimS said:

    MaxPB said:

    Ratters said:

    Regarding shoplifting:

    Can we have a system a bit like speeding tickets where it is a civil offence with increasing fines without the need for being proven guilty beyond reasonable doubt and clogging up the courts?

    CCTV catches you stealing? Fine 50x value of items, or £1,000, whichever is highest. Maybe subject to a maximum. If you appeal it's done on balance of probabilities.

    Repeat offenders see higher fines and eventually a criminal case. But we need speedy justice for low level crime to deter this sort of shit.

    Stick them in the clink for 20+ years, deport the foreigners and have done with them. A few exemplary sentences ought to be enough. Do it for a few months and then any outbreak of thieving do it again, after a few rounds the problem will resolve itself. Make a big song and dance over the extra long sentencing and deportations, have the PM tell the nation that we won't stand for it and actually mean it. Fuck the do gooders and human rights brigade if they pipe up.
    Long sentences haven't proven much of a deterrent in the US.

    I think what works is increasing the rate of conviction, and reducing the time from offence to conviction. The response to the riots should be a guide here. You could have specialist courts set up to prosecute these cases quickly. Speed up the whole process. Once people get the message that there will be consequences pretty soon, the consequences themselves don't necessarily have to be as severe as a couple of decades in the clink.
    Absolutely. Policing: knowing you’ll get caught. If there’s a low risk of getting caught then the sentence is irrelevant. Just catch the fuckers.
    But when they get caught they actually need to be punished with a jail sentence. The problem is that when these people get caught they get let off and are out stealing the very same afternoon they get arrested. Instant deportation for foreigners caught stealing (or of any crime really) with no right of appeal and exemplary sentences for citizens. Do it for a few months and substantially raise the risk in people's risk/reward calculation. If you have a 100% chance of being let off after being caught then what's the incentive to stop? If you have a 100% chance of getting a 10 year sentence or deportation after being caught people will think twice. The key is to catch them, as you rightly say, but to also action sentencing and deportations rapidly. As in within a few days for deportation and within a weeks for sentencing.

    As soon as word gets out vast majority of it will stop and then you're left with drug addicts and kleptomaniacs. The issue is that ordinary people and gangs see literally no downside risk to stealing at the moment.
    There’s quite a wide gulf between “100% chance of being let off” and “prison sentence”. Prison is a perp finishing school.

    One of the Singapore policies that steers this side of the totalitarian line is punitive, confiscatory fines. Those plus community service plus parental financial liability if the miscreant is under 18 are surely all better options that stuffing the prisons even fuller when prison populations in equivalent European countries with lower crime rates and way lower reoffending rates are so much lower.
    Shoplifting can be easily stopped if shops just hired more security to watch people.

    Only a mentally ill person would shoplift something if there's a burly security guard standing there watching you do it.

    And yes, that would result in prices going up, but it would also result in more direct job creation.
    Some do it right in front of the staff and security, particularly the kids.
    Perhaps we'll just have to go back to Open All Hours style shopping, where everything is behind the counter.
    It will just work like pay-at-the-pump. You'll have to touch your card on entry to the shop (with your balaclava pulled down and possible facial recognition to the bank), £200 hold, chuck your goods into your bag, barcodes will scan automatically as you leave, reimburse your account.

    As labour gets relatively more expensive I expect this to happen remarkably quickly.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,961
    ohnotnow said:

    As the BBC's live news has just given me the momentous news that :

    Doncaster looks like a three-horse race, says Labour insider

    I think I will give up for the night. And a Janice Joplin performance I hadn't come across before courtesy of YT's random algorithm :

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=htBMVERLGpc

    Three horse race? I seriously doubt that, although I can't see any other candidates gathering many votes.

    Labour vs Reform. Tories a reasonable vote but some distance behind.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,438
    Election Maps UK results spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1M1ip0S8TVIaWSaKCJ-KA2dDhuuLXLgKCItBRTmhhyfc/edit?gid=1587932240#gid=1587932240

    Unsurprisingly, it’s currently empty.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,690
    Eabhal said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Turns on TV.

    Finds Laura K has been selected by the geniuses at the bbc to front the whole election night.

    Listens to three minutes of dumbed down platitudinal nonsense about how not all places have elections.

    Goes back to the Internet...

    Am I alone?

    Getting the value out of that ChatGPT subscription though :



    "Certainly! I can write some boiler-plate text about an election!..."
    We need more abrasive journalism in this country. "You'd have to be seriously odd to stay up for this one". "This has almost no effect on anything", "It's impossible to come to any sensible political analysis from this disparate set of results".
    Go TO BED NOW. None of this matters.

  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,084
    Leon said:

    I think, as @rcs1000 professionally suggests; that this so-called “gascake” is just a form of Californian weed, albeit it arrives in the uk as a light brown powder, akin to calfskin smack

    If you smoke it by the twilit river at Richmond upon Thames along with an old friend and two bottles of excellent Spanish rose and a slow release Tramadol 100mg and a dose of jet lag from Bishkek Kyrgyzstan then you feel quite exceptionally happy. Also irritated. Yet happy

    🤷🏼‍♂️

    Irritated yet happy. Quite an evocative phrase. It takes me back to evenings in hot places where I didn’t take sufficient precautions against mosquitos, but drank enough not to care, and found the itch and scratching thereof to be somewhere on the boundary between aggravating and sort of pleasant.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,961
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    vik said:

    TimS said:

    MaxPB said:

    TimS said:

    MaxPB said:

    Ratters said:

    Regarding shoplifting:

    Can we have a system a bit like speeding tickets where it is a civil offence with increasing fines without the need for being proven guilty beyond reasonable doubt and clogging up the courts?

    CCTV catches you stealing? Fine 50x value of items, or £1,000, whichever is highest. Maybe subject to a maximum. If you appeal it's done on balance of probabilities.

    Repeat offenders see higher fines and eventually a criminal case. But we need speedy justice for low level crime to deter this sort of shit.

    Stick them in the clink for 20+ years, deport the foreigners and have done with them. A few exemplary sentences ought to be enough. Do it for a few months and then any outbreak of thieving do it again, after a few rounds the problem will resolve itself. Make a big song and dance over the extra long sentencing and deportations, have the PM tell the nation that we won't stand for it and actually mean it. Fuck the do gooders and human rights brigade if they pipe up.
    Long sentences haven't proven much of a deterrent in the US.

    I think what works is increasing the rate of conviction, and reducing the time from offence to conviction. The response to the riots should be a guide here. You could have specialist courts set up to prosecute these cases quickly. Speed up the whole process. Once people get the message that there will be consequences pretty soon, the consequences themselves don't necessarily have to be as severe as a couple of decades in the clink.
    Absolutely. Policing: knowing you’ll get caught. If there’s a low risk of getting caught then the sentence is irrelevant. Just catch the fuckers.
    But when they get caught they actually need to be punished with a jail sentence. The problem is that when these people get caught they get let off and are out stealing the very same afternoon they get arrested. Instant deportation for foreigners caught stealing (or of any crime really) with no right of appeal and exemplary sentences for citizens. Do it for a few months and substantially raise the risk in people's risk/reward calculation. If you have a 100% chance of being let off after being caught then what's the incentive to stop? If you have a 100% chance of getting a 10 year sentence or deportation after being caught people will think twice. The key is to catch them, as you rightly say, but to also action sentencing and deportations rapidly. As in within a few days for deportation and within a weeks for sentencing.

    As soon as word gets out vast majority of it will stop and then you're left with drug addicts and kleptomaniacs. The issue is that ordinary people and gangs see literally no downside risk to stealing at the moment.
    There’s quite a wide gulf between “100% chance of being let off” and “prison sentence”. Prison is a perp finishing school.

    One of the Singapore policies that steers this side of the totalitarian line is punitive, confiscatory fines. Those plus community service plus parental financial liability if the miscreant is under 18 are surely all better options that stuffing the prisons even fuller when prison populations in equivalent European countries with lower crime rates and way lower reoffending rates are so much lower.
    Shoplifting can be easily stopped if shops just hired more security to watch people.

    Only a mentally ill person would shoplift something if there's a burly security guard standing there watching you do it.

    And yes, that would result in prices going up, but it would also result in more direct job creation.
    Some do it right in front of the staff and security, particularly the kids.
    Perhaps we'll just have to go back to Open All Hours style shopping, where everything is behind the counter.
    It will just work like pay-at-the-pump. You'll have to touch your card on entry to the shop (with your balaclava pulled down and possible facial recognition to the bank), £200 hold, chuck your goods into your bag, barcodes will scan automatically as you leave, reimburse your account.

    As labour gets relatively more expensive I expect this to happen remarkably quickly.
    £200 might not involve a reimbursement for those of us shopping for 3 households.

    But yes, I can see that happening, definitely. The technology is there.

  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,084
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    vik said:

    TimS said:

    MaxPB said:

    TimS said:

    MaxPB said:

    Ratters said:

    Regarding shoplifting:

    Can we have a system a bit like speeding tickets where it is a civil offence with increasing fines without the need for being proven guilty beyond reasonable doubt and clogging up the courts?

    CCTV catches you stealing? Fine 50x value of items, or £1,000, whichever is highest. Maybe subject to a maximum. If you appeal it's done on balance of probabilities.

    Repeat offenders see higher fines and eventually a criminal case. But we need speedy justice for low level crime to deter this sort of shit.

    Stick them in the clink for 20+ years, deport the foreigners and have done with them. A few exemplary sentences ought to be enough. Do it for a few months and then any outbreak of thieving do it again, after a few rounds the problem will resolve itself. Make a big song and dance over the extra long sentencing and deportations, have the PM tell the nation that we won't stand for it and actually mean it. Fuck the do gooders and human rights brigade if they pipe up.
    Long sentences haven't proven much of a deterrent in the US.

    I think what works is increasing the rate of conviction, and reducing the time from offence to conviction. The response to the riots should be a guide here. You could have specialist courts set up to prosecute these cases quickly. Speed up the whole process. Once people get the message that there will be consequences pretty soon, the consequences themselves don't necessarily have to be as severe as a couple of decades in the clink.
    Absolutely. Policing: knowing you’ll get caught. If there’s a low risk of getting caught then the sentence is irrelevant. Just catch the fuckers.
    But when they get caught they actually need to be punished with a jail sentence. The problem is that when these people get caught they get let off and are out stealing the very same afternoon they get arrested. Instant deportation for foreigners caught stealing (or of any crime really) with no right of appeal and exemplary sentences for citizens. Do it for a few months and substantially raise the risk in people's risk/reward calculation. If you have a 100% chance of being let off after being caught then what's the incentive to stop? If you have a 100% chance of getting a 10 year sentence or deportation after being caught people will think twice. The key is to catch them, as you rightly say, but to also action sentencing and deportations rapidly. As in within a few days for deportation and within a weeks for sentencing.

    As soon as word gets out vast majority of it will stop and then you're left with drug addicts and kleptomaniacs. The issue is that ordinary people and gangs see literally no downside risk to stealing at the moment.
    There’s quite a wide gulf between “100% chance of being let off” and “prison sentence”. Prison is a perp finishing school.

    One of the Singapore policies that steers this side of the totalitarian line is punitive, confiscatory fines. Those plus community service plus parental financial liability if the miscreant is under 18 are surely all better options that stuffing the prisons even fuller when prison populations in equivalent European countries with lower crime rates and way lower reoffending rates are so much lower.
    Shoplifting can be easily stopped if shops just hired more security to watch people.

    Only a mentally ill person would shoplift something if there's a burly security guard standing there watching you do it.

    And yes, that would result in prices going up, but it would also result in more direct job creation.
    Some do it right in front of the staff and security, particularly the kids.
    Perhaps we'll just have to go back to Open All Hours style shopping, where everything is behind the counter.
    It will just work like pay-at-the-pump. You'll have to touch your card on entry to the shop (with your balaclava pulled down and possible facial recognition to the bank), £200 hold, chuck your goods into your bag, barcodes will scan automatically as you leave, reimburse your account.

    As labour gets relatively more expensive I expect this to happen remarkably quickly.
    Some shops like Costco have membership. That might be a way forward.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,690
    Please make it stop.

    So missing Vincent Hanna.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,699

    Turns on TV.

    Finds Laura K has been selected by the geniuses at the bbc to front the whole election night.

    Listens to three minutes of dumbed down platitudinal nonsense about how not all places have elections.

    Goes back to the Internet...

    Am I alone?

    C'mon Laura K - to compete, we need to know your most exotic high...
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,315
    An interesting thing to note is that the overnight counts are mainly Lab defences, while a lot of the Con ones are counting Friday. So the early headline could be Lab getting kicked before switching to Tory pain later
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