Well you have to feel for Poilievre. Three months ago he's nailed on to be PM of Canada. Now he not only isn't, he's lost his seat. Politics is a rough old game.
And none of it was his fault.
No, just events really.
As a general point I think the influence of randomness on everything (inc sport and politics) is under-appreciated. It's an input into my betting, that is. I look for where odds aren't paying sufficient regard to randomness.
Ainsley Earhardt: "He is so good at communicating. It's such a gift ... He knows about every sport. He knows about trade. He knows about the border. He's so equipped for this job, and I think he's having more fun this go round ... he is gifted."
Good at communicating? These days he can barely string a coherent sentence together.
Ainsley Earhardt: "He is so good at communicating. It's such a gift ... He knows about every sport. He knows about trade. He knows about the border. He's so equipped for this job, and I think he's having more fun this go round ... he is gifted."
Good at communicating? These days he can barely string a coherent sentence together.
There is no point trying to bring reason to this: these people are in a cult and literally worship him and, as someone on PB (sorry forget who) keeps saying, allows them to project all their fantasies and hopes on to.
The important question is what is the ceiling for the cult? How many independents will peel off from this bollocks?
The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs
He is going to scrap his previous policy
This is not a retreat...
Spencer Hakimian @SpencerHakimian · 6m *LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.
🤣🤣🤣
Still trying to wrap my head around that. I think I give up.
"Don't think you can just come over here and build a car factory and bring manufacturing jobs back to the heartland. That's not the point of this tariff policy at all."
Well you have to feel for Poilievre. Three months ago he's nailed on to be PM of Canada. Now he not only isn't, he's lost his seat. Politics is a rough old game.
And none of it was his fault.
On the contrary. He chose to be pro-Trump.
He chose the Face-Eating Leopard.
I do feel slightly for him, as I do with Truss. From being top of the heap, or at least next top of the heap, to being chucked out of your own seat is a hell of a long drop. It unhinged people
7 former Labour councillors in Slough have joined the Lib Dems.
"Slough Liberal Democrat councillor group will be greatly strengthened by the addition of Cllr Sabia Akram, Cllr Waqas Sabah, Cllr Zaffar Ajaib, Cllr Haqeeq Dar, Cllr Mohammed Nazir, Cllr Naveeda Qaseem, Cllr Jamila Sabah..."
Well you have to feel for Poilievre. Three months ago he's nailed on to be PM of Canada. Now he not only isn't, he's lost his seat. Politics is a rough old game.
And none of it was his fault.
On the contrary. He chose to be pro-Trump.
He chose the Face-Eating Leopard.
I do feel slightly for him, as I do with Truss. From being top of the heap, or at least next top of the heap, to being chucked out of your own seat is a hell of a long drop. It unhinged people
Actually the best comparison for Pierre is Jeremy Corbyn.
Corbyn's ratings went into the toilet and never recovered after his response to the Salisbury poisonings, after that he was seen a Britain hating traitor who would always side with our enemies.
As a former Tory MP observed to me at the time, the SNP, a party committed to the break up of the UK, were convinced by the evidence of Russian involvement but Corbyn wasn't.
I think this is a bit of a stupid comparison (a Tory MP being stupid, whatever next?). The SNP aren't some kind of anti-patriotic party, quite the opposite. They are Scottish patriots, just not British patriots. And indeed some of those more on the Sturgeon civic nationalist wing aren't even hostile to England, they just don't want to be ruled from Westmister. So there's no reason at all for the SNP to be favourably disposed to Putin's Russia. Corbyn's stupidity on this topic on the other hand was all too evident. Unfortunately like many on the far left he extrapolated from the many failures of Western foreign policy to deduce that Russia is somehow a victim rather than what it has become - one of the most explicitly imperialist countries in the world.
Salmond's SNP panda-ed to China.
And Cameron and Osborne rolled out the red carpet to Beijing around the same time. I don't have much time for the SNP but the way that some English rightwingers can't get their head past the idea that they are some kind of traitors is absurd.
Is it just me, or are we now awash with flies, in this warm weather?
All manner of stuff is out. Not just flies, but hoverflies, butterflies - and just seen a black oil beetle. The moths have been active the last few nights, with some of the bigger beasts waking up. I expect the cockchafers* will be out very shortly.
*mentioned solely so that TSE can have a snigger...
I remember when Bradley Walsh on ITV's The Chase had a snigger or two when "cockchafer" came up in a question
Is it just me, or are we now awash with flies, in this warm weather?
All manner of stuff is out. Not just flies, but hoverflies, butterflies - and just seen a black oil beetle. The moths have been active the last few nights, with some of the bigger beasts waking up. I expect the cockchafers* will be out very shortly.
*mentioned solely so that TSE can have a snigger...
I did a 44km bike ride on Sunday, and forgot my glasses. I did not get a single fly in my eye. This morning I did a 24km ride with my sunglasses on, and I got two insects in my eye within the first kilometre...
As as aside, I spent the day in Cambridge yesterday doing chores (*), and I saw my first electric tandem bike. Then, an hour later, I saw a different type of tandem bike, also electric. You wait years for an electric tandem, then two come along at once!
So labour, today, come out in a cynical ploy before the locals on deporting asylum seekers convicted of sex crimes although it will never happen, the legal system will see to that.
Meanwhile in opposition they steadfastly opposed it !
7 former Labour councillors in Slough have joined the Lib Dems.
"Slough Liberal Democrat councillor group will be greatly strengthened by the addition of Cllr Sabia Akram, Cllr Waqas Sabah, Cllr Zaffar Ajaib, Cllr Haqeeq Dar, Cllr Mohammed Nazir, Cllr Naveeda Qaseem, Cllr Jamila Sabah..."
South Asian politics playing out?
Gaza perhaps.
Always the most likely. But I can't say I'm familiar with LibDem policy on it.
The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs
He is going to scrap his previous policy
This is not a retreat...
Spencer Hakimian @SpencerHakimian · 6m *LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.
🤣🤣🤣
Still trying to wrap my head around that. I think I give up.
"Don't think you can just come over here and build a car factory and bring manufacturing jobs back to the heartland. That's not the point of this tariff policy at all."
Why should they get tariff relief if it’s a screwdriver facility largely reliant on parts from overseas. 🤷♂️
Tariff relief is coming in for car makers based on the domestic content.
Is it just me, or are we now awash with flies, in this warm weather?
All manner of stuff is out. Not just flies, but hoverflies, butterflies - and just seen a black oil beetle. The moths have been active the last few nights, with some of the bigger beasts waking up. I expect the cockchafers* will be out very shortly.
*mentioned solely so that TSE can have a snigger...
I did a 44km bike ride on Sunday, and forgot my glasses. I did not get a single fly in my eye. This morning I did a 24km ride with my sunglasses on, and I got two insects in my eye within the first kilometre...
As as aside, I spent the day in Cambridge yesterday doing chores (*), and I saw my first electric tandem bike. Then, an hour later, I saw a different type of tandem bike, also electric. You wait years for an electric tandem, then two come along at once!
(*) A codeword for enjoying the sunshine.
After my drive back from the IoW at the weekend I had a bug spattered grille and windscreen. I havent seen that for years.
7 former Labour councillors in Slough have joined the Lib Dems.
"Slough Liberal Democrat councillor group will be greatly strengthened by the addition of Cllr Sabia Akram, Cllr Waqas Sabah, Cllr Zaffar Ajaib, Cllr Haqeeq Dar, Cllr Mohammed Nazir, Cllr Naveeda Qaseem, Cllr Jamila Sabah..."
South Asian politics playing out?
Gaza perhaps.
Always the most likely. But I can't say I'm familiar with LibDem policy on it.
It will vary from ward to ward based on the electorate.
The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs
He is going to scrap his previous policy
This is not a retreat...
Spencer Hakimian @SpencerHakimian · 6m *LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.
🤣🤣🤣
Lol wtf. This has got to be the most stupid policy I've ever seen. What's the endgame here, lock out foreign car makers from the US market so that the likes of GM and Ford have a duopoly?
The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs
He is going to scrap his previous policy
This is not a retreat...
Spencer Hakimian @SpencerHakimian · 6m *LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.
🤣🤣🤣
Still trying to wrap my head around that. I think I give up.
"Don't think you can just come over here and build a car factory and bring manufacturing jobs back to the heartland. That's not the point of this tariff policy at all."
Why should they get tariff relief if it’s a screwdriver facility largely reliant on parts from overseas. 🤷♂️
Tariff relief is coming in for car makers based on the domestic content.
Is it just me, or are we now awash with flies, in this warm weather?
All manner of stuff is out. Not just flies, but hoverflies, butterflies - and just seen a black oil beetle. The moths have been active the last few nights, with some of the bigger beasts waking up. I expect the cockchafers* will be out very shortly.
*mentioned solely so that TSE can have a snigger...
I remember when Bradley Walsh on ITV's The Chase had a snigger or two when "cockchafer" came up in a question
Well there it stands. My long time like for @Sunil_Prasannan washed away. He's clearly come out now as 'cheap seats' Sunil. A big positive on trains, but there is no way back from the gratuitous chumminess with ghastly. Ghastly and all his mates.
7 former Labour councillors in Slough have joined the Lib Dems.
"Slough Liberal Democrat councillor group will be greatly strengthened by the addition of Cllr Sabia Akram, Cllr Waqas Sabah, Cllr Zaffar Ajaib, Cllr Haqeeq Dar, Cllr Mohammed Nazir, Cllr Naveeda Qaseem, Cllr Jamila Sabah..."
South Asian politics playing out?
Gaza perhaps.
Always the most likely. But I can't say I'm familiar with LibDem policy on it.
It will vary from ward to ward based on the electorate.
I know that you are not making a serious response. The correct answer is found here:
The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs
He is going to scrap his previous policy
This is not a retreat...
Spencer Hakimian @SpencerHakimian · 6m *LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.
🤣🤣🤣
Lol wtf. This has got to be the most stupid policy I've ever seen. What's the endgame here, lock out foreign car makers from the US market so that the likes of GM and Ford have a duopoly?
Trumps issue is that he sees Mercedes in New York but not GM in Paris or Frankfurt. So Mercedes building in the US doesn't fix it for him. It has nothing to do with economics as understood by the rest of the world.
The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs
He is going to scrap his previous policy
This is not a retreat...
Spencer Hakimian @SpencerHakimian · 6m *LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.
🤣🤣🤣
Lol wtf. This has got to be the most stupid policy I've ever seen. What's the endgame here, lock out foreign car makers from the US market so that the likes of GM and Ford have a duopoly?
And how are you going to attract investment from the likes of TSMC if you are saying "well we might just tariff what you make here if we feel like it"?
Is it just me, or are we now awash with flies, in this warm weather?
All manner of stuff is out. Not just flies, but hoverflies, butterflies - and just seen a black oil beetle. The moths have been active the last few nights, with some of the bigger beasts waking up. I expect the cockchafers* will be out very shortly.
*mentioned solely so that TSE can have a snigger...
I did a 44km bike ride on Sunday, and forgot my glasses. I did not get a single fly in my eye. This morning I did a 24km ride with my sunglasses on, and I got two insects in my eye within the first kilometre...
As as aside, I spent the day in Cambridge yesterday doing chores (*), and I saw my first electric tandem bike. Then, an hour later, I saw a different type of tandem bike, also electric. You wait years for an electric tandem, then two come along at once!
(*) A codeword for enjoying the sunshine.
After my drive back from the IoW at the weekend I had a bug spattered grille and windscreen. I havent seen that for years.
Insects are BACK!
Except for the ones your grille and windscreen gratuitously MURDERED!
FPT: US Amazon has a policy that differs from long-established American law for stores: When I go into Best Buy, or a supermarket, I can usually see where a product was produced before I buy it. With Amazon, I usually can't. (American producers can include that in their descriptions, and sometimes do.)
Some Americans are willing to pay more for products that are produced in ways and places they approve of. (I am one of them: I prefer, for example, to avoid products made by the ChiComs -- when I can.)
Amazon would, I believe, be hurt by a requirement that they state the origin for every product they sell.
(My apologies for being vague on the legal requirements. I am not a lawyer, much less one specializing in that subject.)
The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs
He is going to scrap his previous policy
This is not a retreat...
Spencer Hakimian @SpencerHakimian · 6m *LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.
🤣🤣🤣
Lol wtf. This has got to be the most stupid policy I've ever seen. What's the endgame here, lock out foreign car makers from the US market so that the likes of GM and Ford have a duopoly?
And how are you going to attract investment from the likes of TSMC if you are saying "well we might just tariff what you make here if we feel like it"?
Yeah it's completely mental. I don't understand this thinking at all, propping up failing US car companies by effectively blocking foreign brands just seems like a step into the dark for the US economy. There's a tiny kernel of logic behind tariffs to bring back manufacturing, but this makes less than zero sense. Foreign companies will quietly freeze investment and redirect to Mexico, why bother with a higher US cost structure when you get the same tariffs from low cost Mexico anyway?
The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs
He is going to scrap his previous policy
This is not a retreat...
Spencer Hakimian @SpencerHakimian · 6m *LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.
🤣🤣🤣
Lol wtf. This has got to be the most stupid policy I've ever seen. What's the endgame here, lock out foreign car makers from the US market so that the likes of GM and Ford have a duopoly?
And how are you going to attract investment from the likes of TSMC if you are saying "well we might just tariff what you make here if we feel like it"?
Yeah it's completely mental. I don't understand this thinking at all, propping up failing US car companies by effectively blocking foreign brands just seems like a step into the dark for the US economy. There's a tiny kernel of logic behind tariffs to bring back manufacturing, but this makes less than zero sense. Foreign companies will quietly freeze investment and redirect to Mexico, why bother with a higher US cost structure when you get the same tariffs from low cost Mexico anyway?
And in Mexico you don't need to pay for the tariffs on steel and aluminum, and on car parts.
It's a genuinely retarded policy that will reduce US manufacturing.
The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs
He is going to scrap his previous policy
This is not a retreat...
Spencer Hakimian @SpencerHakimian · 6m *LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.
🤣🤣🤣
Lol wtf. This has got to be the most stupid policy I've ever seen. What's the endgame here, lock out foreign car makers from the US market so that the likes of GM and Ford have a duopoly?
Trumps issue is that he sees Mercedes in New York but not GM in Paris or Frankfurt. So Mercedes building in the US doesn't fix it for him. It has nothing to do with economics as understood by the rest of the world.
Because they're shite. America has/had an internationally competitive marque but then Elon Musk went and fucked it.
The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs
He is going to scrap his previous policy
This is not a retreat...
Spencer Hakimian @SpencerHakimian · 6m *LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.
🤣🤣🤣
Lol wtf. This has got to be the most stupid policy I've ever seen. What's the endgame here, lock out foreign car makers from the US market so that the likes of GM and Ford have a duopoly?
"Lets put a tariff on automakers who build their cars in our country"
YES AND HO
Who is going to be the MAGA Peter Mannion and declare "that's fucking mental"?
The whole Trump admin has the stench of Hitler/Mussolini about it.
Trump 2.0 is way less impressive than Hitler or Mussolini
Hitler did conquer nearly all of Europe and came quite close to winning a world war. Mussolini did something cool with trains, I forget exactly what
Eg what was Trump thinking with that *tweet* last night banging on about Canada as the 51st state AGAIN just before the election. What did it benefit him!?
Either he’s a Russian agent sent to roil the West or he is a piece of performance art or he is now actually insane and there is no one in his inner circle able or willing to say Get a grip
Hitler was a model of calm good sense in contrast. At least until ~1942
The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs
He is going to scrap his previous policy
This is not a retreat...
Spencer Hakimian @SpencerHakimian · 6m *LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.
🤣🤣🤣
Lol wtf. This has got to be the most stupid policy I've ever seen. What's the endgame here, lock out foreign car makers from the US market so that the likes of GM and Ford have a duopoly?
Trumps issue is that he sees Mercedes in New York but not GM in Paris or Frankfurt. So Mercedes building in the US doesn't fix it for him. It has nothing to do with economics as understood by the rest of the world.
Because they're shite. America has/had an internationally competitive marque but then Elon Musk went and fucked it.
Not just shite, but completely unsuitable for export markets too. However, if they are shite compared to the competition and you want to see a similar percentage of US cars in Europe to European cars in the US, you have to raise the price of the EU brands in the US.
Commentators are still analysing policy as if it exists in the real world, rather than in Trumps alternative reality.
The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs
He is going to scrap his previous policy
This is not a retreat...
Spencer Hakimian @SpencerHakimian · 6m *LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.
🤣🤣🤣
Lol wtf. This has got to be the most stupid policy I've ever seen. What's the endgame here, lock out foreign car makers from the US market so that the likes of GM and Ford have a duopoly?
And how are you going to attract investment from the likes of TSMC if you are saying "well we might just tariff what you make here if we feel like it"?
The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs
He is going to scrap his previous policy
This is not a retreat...
Spencer Hakimian @SpencerHakimian · 6m *LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.
🤣🤣🤣
Lol wtf. This has got to be the most stupid policy I've ever seen. What's the endgame here, lock out foreign car makers from the US market so that the likes of GM and Ford have a duopoly?
And how are you going to attract investment from the likes of TSMC if you are saying "well we might just tariff what you make here if we feel like it"?
The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs
He is going to scrap his previous policy
This is not a retreat...
Spencer Hakimian @SpencerHakimian · 6m *LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.
🤣🤣🤣
Lol wtf. This has got to be the most stupid policy I've ever seen. What's the endgame here, lock out foreign car makers from the US market so that the likes of GM and Ford have a duopoly?
And how are you going to attract investment from the likes of TSMC if you are saying "well we might just tariff what you make here if we feel like it"?
Investment by TSMC or otherwise is irrelevant.
It's all about national output. Widgets, Ideas, whatever. Stuff. We need to make the most commercially viable stuff. We need to make it now and I want to see evidence of doing so here. (Withnail..)
The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs
He is going to scrap his previous policy
This is not a retreat...
Spencer Hakimian @SpencerHakimian · 6m *LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.
🤣🤣🤣
Lol wtf. This has got to be the most stupid policy I've ever seen. What's the endgame here, lock out foreign car makers from the US market so that the likes of GM and Ford have a duopoly?
And how are you going to attract investment from the likes of TSMC if you are saying "well we might just tariff what you make here if we feel like it"?
Yeah it's completely mental. I don't understand this thinking at all, propping up failing US car companies by effectively blocking foreign brands just seems like a step into the dark for the US economy. There's a tiny kernel of logic behind tariffs to bring back manufacturing, but this makes less than zero sense. Foreign companies will quietly freeze investment and redirect to Mexico, why bother with a higher US cost structure when you get the same tariffs from low cost Mexico anyway?
The thinking (such as it is) is "I like tariffs". Imagine that said in the same voice Waynetta Slob used to say "I'm having a fag."
The tariffs aren't a means to an end, they are an end in themselves.
The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs
He is going to scrap his previous policy
This is not a retreat...
Spencer Hakimian @SpencerHakimian · 6m *LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.
🤣🤣🤣
Lol wtf. This has got to be the most stupid policy I've ever seen. What's the endgame here, lock out foreign car makers from the US market so that the likes of GM and Ford have a duopoly?
Trumps issue is that he sees Mercedes in New York but not GM in Paris or Frankfurt. So Mercedes building in the US doesn't fix it for him. It has nothing to do with economics as understood by the rest of the world.
GM used to sell a lot of cars across Europe - but the brand was Opal or Vauxhall depending on where you looked.
Likewise Ford used to sell a lot of cars for decades the Fiesta was the top selling car in the UK and I think the Puma is close to the position now.
But all those cars were models explicitly built for the overseas market because American cars are designed for american roads and are just too big for the rest of the world.
The issue is that Trump is an idiot surrounded by idiots who want to keep the chief idiot happy.
The Lutnick thing is not *quite* as stupid as it appears. What is happening is that US automakers (i.e. Ford, GM, Tesla) won't be subject to tariffs on imported car parts. While Mercedes Benz will be.
It's basically just a massive subsidy for US automakers.
The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs
He is going to scrap his previous policy
This is not a retreat...
Spencer Hakimian @SpencerHakimian · 6m *LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.
🤣🤣🤣
Lol wtf. This has got to be the most stupid policy I've ever seen. What's the endgame here, lock out foreign car makers from the US market so that the likes of GM and Ford have a duopoly?
Trumps issue is that he sees Mercedes in New York but not GM in Paris or Frankfurt. So Mercedes building in the US doesn't fix it for him. It has nothing to do with economics as understood by the rest of the world.
GM used to sell a lot of cars across Europe - but the brand was Opal or Vauxhall depending on where you looked.
Likewise Ford used to sell a lot of cars for decades the Fiesta was the top selling car in the UK and I think the Puma is close to the position now.
But all those cars were models explicitly built for the overseas market because American cars are designed for american roads and are just too big for the rest of the world.
The issue is that Trump is an idiot surrounded by idiots who want to keep the chief idiot happy.
The people that ran Ford and Vauxhall were also idiots sadly. When they started to lose market share they cut their european engineering divisions. The same notion that they could sell US cars in Europe.
The Lutnick thing is not *quite* as stupid as it appears. What is happening is that US automakers (i.e. Ford, GM, Tesla) won't be subject to tariffs on imported car parts. While Mercedes Benz will be.
It's basically just a massive subsidy for US automakers.
Lutnick (who I've met) strikes me as the sort of person that'll be baffled as to where he is. He's an awful choice, but he will really work at not being so awful.
The Lutnick thing is not *quite* as stupid as it appears. What is happening is that US automakers (i.e. Ford, GM, Tesla) won't be subject to tariffs on imported car parts. While Mercedes Benz will be.
It's basically just a massive subsidy for US automakers.
Lutnick (who I've met) strikes me as the sort of person that'll be baffled as to where he is. He's an awful choice, but he will really work at not being so awful.
He looks completely insane on TV. Though that maybe because you simply have to act that way in the court of the mad king.
The Lutnick thing is not *quite* as stupid as it appears. What is happening is that US automakers (i.e. Ford, GM, Tesla) won't be subject to tariffs on imported car parts. While Mercedes Benz will be.
It's basically just a massive subsidy for US automakers.
One of Trump’s problems is that he’s mentally stuck in his heyday. The 1980s-90s. He’s like one of those whining old geezers - you know the sort, we get them on here - “music was better in my day, back in the [insert decade of his/her teens and 20s]”
Trump is stuck in about 1987 or 1995 when America was economically hegemonic and really could order the world around. He’s probably tried to adapt to the new order but deep down, nah
Hence his foreign policy which basically consists of him shouting at other countries and expecting them to obey. And an economic policy which makes sense if America is 35% of world GDP and China isn’t a deadly rival which can ride out any American tantrums - indeed benefit from them
Well you have to feel for Poilievre. Three months ago he's nailed on to be PM of Canada. Now he not only isn't, he's lost his seat. Politics is a rough old game.
And none of it was his fault.
Yes and No. Poilievre is an aggressive attack dog politician who has never run anything. I suspect he would be found wanting as prime minister. It was his misfortune to be found out BEFORE being elected.
The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs
He is going to scrap his previous policy
This is not a retreat...
Spencer Hakimian @SpencerHakimian · 6m *LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.
🤣🤣🤣
I've given myself an aneurysm trying to make sense of this policy.
I wonder how quickly Mercedes, BMW and co close their US factories - if there is zero advantage building cars in the US they may as well build the few cars they sell to the USA in Germany where the factories aren't running at capacity.
At very first glance I could see that the idea had merit in helping US car manufacturers but it only took 30 seconds for common sense to make the serious flaws obvious.
The Lutnick thing is not *quite* as stupid as it appears. What is happening is that US automakers (i.e. Ford, GM, Tesla) won't be subject to tariffs on imported car parts. While Mercedes Benz will be.
It's basically just a massive subsidy for US automakers.
One of Trump’s problems is that he’s mentally stuck in his heyday. The 1980s-90s. He’s like one of those whining old geezers - you know the sort, we get them on here - “music was better in my day, back in the [insert decade of his/her teens and 20s]”
Trump is stuck in about 1987 or 1995 when America was economically hegemonic and really could order the world around. He’s probably tried to adapt to the new order but deep down, nah
Hence his foreign policy which basically consists of him shouting at other countries and expecting them to obey. And an economic policy which makes sense if America is 35% of world GDP and China isn’t a deadly rival which can ride out any American tantrums - indeed benefit from them
America is also much better at persuading people when people believed they could rely on the US government to provide an economic, political and military safety net. None of which any of us really believe anymore.
The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs
He is going to scrap his previous policy
This is not a retreat...
Spencer Hakimian @SpencerHakimian · 6m *LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.
🤣🤣🤣
Lol wtf. This has got to be the most stupid policy I've ever seen. What's the endgame here, lock out foreign car makers from the US market so that the likes of GM and Ford have a duopoly?
And how are you going to attract investment from the likes of TSMC if you are saying "well we might just tariff what you make here if we feel like it"?
Some developing countries require foreign investors to make a joint venture with a local company, with the local company owning a majority share. Perhaps this is what Trump is aspiring to, and is just confused, the senile racist shithead.
He was interviewed by Faisal, he commented that Mario Cumo said you campaign in poetry and govern in prose. Well, said Mark Carney, I campaigned in prose and will govern, in...technospeak maybe.
He is extremely bright, articulate, got a sense of humour and a clear vision of how the world works. I am frankly jealous of Canada, whatever his dancing is like.
I’m far from convinced (as some seem to be) that the Canadian result points to what will happen to Reform at the next GE (or beforehand).
The Canadian situation was brought about by a very particular set of events that were immediate in the minds of voters. Canada is also much more badly hit by Trump’s trade policies and his general unhinged-ness, being next door. The Liberals also did an exceptionally well-timed switcheroo at the top.
We have had a lot of predictions that Trump’s antics would damage Reform. As of today, their poll rating is holding up and they will take a load of council seats on Thursday, and potentially win a Westminster by election. I could be persuaded that Trump might be a brake on them expanding their position further, but we don’t have any real evidence of that yet.
Yup. I don't assume people who self-indulgently voted for Brexit would not self-indulgently vote for the man most responsible for it.
Wow - just back from a long run. The city is ALIVE. Literally thousands of people heading to the coast, cyclists, runners. Insects galore and the birds have gone quite mad, goldfinches fluttering all around my head. The gorse smells amazing.
I can't work out if I should go the beach or watch the football.
Apologies if this has been covered but absolutely horrendous forecasts by the Atlantic Fed for tomorrow morning forecasting -1.5% (or even -2.7% on a different measure). US figures are always inflated by the tendency to give annual rather than quarterly figures but these are really bad numbers. Really bad. Trumpian even. https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
I’m far from convinced (as some seem to be) that the Canadian result points to what will happen to Reform at the next GE (or beforehand).
The Canadian situation was brought about by a very particular set of events that were immediate in the minds of voters. Canada is also much more badly hit by Trump’s trade policies and his general unhinged-ness, being next door. The Liberals also did an exceptionally well-timed switcheroo at the top.
We have had a lot of predictions that Trump’s antics would damage Reform. As of today, their poll rating is holding up and they will take a load of council seats on Thursday, and potentially win a Westminster by election. I could be persuaded that Trump might be a brake on them expanding their position further, but we don’t have any real evidence of that yet.
Yup. I don't assume people who self-indulgently voted for Brexit would not self-indulgently vote for the man most responsible for it.
Farage also doesn’t need to make MAGA converts of everyone.
He just needs enough people to feel let down by Labour and the Tories.
The Lutnick thing is not *quite* as stupid as it appears. What is happening is that US automakers (i.e. Ford, GM, Tesla) won't be subject to tariffs on imported car parts. While Mercedes Benz will be.
It's basically just a massive subsidy for US automakers.
One of Trump’s problems is that he’s mentally stuck in his heyday. The 1980s-90s. He’s like one of those whining old geezers - you know the sort, we get them on here - “music was better in my day, back in the [insert decade of his/her teens and 20s]”
Trump is stuck in about 1987 or 1995 when America was economically hegemonic and really could order the world around. He’s probably tried to adapt to the new order but deep down, nah
Hence his foreign policy which basically consists of him shouting at other countries and expecting them to obey. And an economic policy which makes sense if America is 35% of world GDP and China isn’t a deadly rival which can ride out any American tantrums - indeed benefit from them
And in some ways, that's fine- most of us have a heyday, and wish things were still like that. It's the human bit of the conservative instinct. To an extent, it's even right. Both Thatcherites pining for the 80s and Red Wallers wishing that their town still had an [whatever] factory like the 70s are keen on Farage for that reason, albeit with contradictory tensions in that coalition.
The problem comes when it becomes dominant- especially when you have someone like Trump, with massive ego, minimal impulse control and a dodgy understanding of the Good Old Days.
He was interviewed by Faisal, he commented that Mario Cumo said you campaign in poetry and govern in prose. Well, said Mark Carney, I campaigned in prose and will govern, in...technospeak maybe.
He is extremely bright, articulate, got a sense of humour and a clear vision of how the world works. I am frankly jealous of Canada, whatever his dancing is like.
I remember seeing him speaking off the cuff at a British embassy event in DC - the Chancellor of the time had been called back to London last minute to deal with some Brexit related bullshit and Carney stepped in to make some remarks, and was charming, smart and genuinely, properly, funny. An impressive man.
The Lutnick thing is not *quite* as stupid as it appears. What is happening is that US automakers (i.e. Ford, GM, Tesla) won't be subject to tariffs on imported car parts. While Mercedes Benz will be.
It's basically just a massive subsidy for US automakers.
Wasn't Trump saying earlier this month "Mercedes have to move their production to the US", and this month he's saying Mercedes US plants can fuck off?
And what about next week? Could be anything. Fining people for not buying Teslas?
He was interviewed by Faisal, he commented that Mario Cumo said you campaign in poetry and govern in prose. Well, said Mark Carney, I campaigned in prose and will govern, in...technospeak maybe.
He is extremely bright, articulate, got a sense of humour and a clear vision of how the world works. I am frankly jealous of Canada, whatever his dancing is like.
I remember seeing him speaking off the cuff at a British embassy event in DC - the Chancellor of the time had been called back to London last minute to deal with some Brexit related bullshit and Carney stepped in to make some remarks, and was charming, smart and genuinely, properly, funny. An impressive man.
Is it just me, or are we now awash with flies, in this warm weather?
All manner of stuff is out. Not just flies, but hoverflies, butterflies - and just seen a black oil beetle. The moths have been active the last few nights, with some of the bigger beasts waking up. I expect the cockchafers* will be out very shortly.
*mentioned solely so that TSE can have a snigger...
I did a 44km bike ride on Sunday, and forgot my glasses. I did not get a single fly in my eye. This morning I did a 24km ride with my sunglasses on, and I got two insects in my eye within the first kilometre...
As as aside, I spent the day in Cambridge yesterday doing chores (*), and I saw my first electric tandem bike. Then, an hour later, I saw a different type of tandem bike, also electric. You wait years for an electric tandem, then two come along at once!
(*) A codeword for enjoying the sunshine.
After my drive back from the IoW at the weekend I had a bug spattered grille and windscreen. I havent seen that for years.
Insects are BACK!
That reminds me of the old saw If you go any slower they'll be mashing on the back.
He was interviewed by Faisal, he commented that Mario Cumo said you campaign in poetry and govern in prose. Well, said Mark Carney, I campaigned in prose and will govern, in...technospeak maybe.
He is extremely bright, articulate, got a sense of humour and a clear vision of how the world works. I am frankly jealous of Canada, whatever his dancing is like.
Bill Clinton used the same quote from Mario Cuomo.
I love Coal Drops Yard - it’s one of the best bits of the magnificent King’s X development. But it’s just not working. It’s too inaccessible and too posh
They need to drastically rethink it and provide some radical new way to there - and reason to go there
I’m far from convinced (as some seem to be) that the Canadian result points to what will happen to Reform at the next GE (or beforehand).
The Canadian situation was brought about by a very particular set of events that were immediate in the minds of voters. Canada is also much more badly hit by Trump’s trade policies and his general unhinged-ness, being next door. The Liberals also did an exceptionally well-timed switcheroo at the top.
We have had a lot of predictions that Trump’s antics would damage Reform. As of today, their poll rating is holding up and they will take a load of council seats on Thursday, and potentially win a Westminster by election. I could be persuaded that Trump might be a brake on them expanding their position further, but we don’t have any real evidence of that yet.
Yup. I don't assume people who self-indulgently voted for Brexit would not self-indulgently vote for the man most responsible for it.
Given the next election isn't until till 2029 you'd be a fool to use an election in another country as in any way predictive.
But if we're reading anything into it on one data point, it's that the story wasn't a collapse in the Conservative vote but a consolidation around their opponents. Being seen as a bit Trumpy might not damage you particularly but it seems to heavily motivate your opponents into forming a coherent vote against.
I’m far from convinced (as some seem to be) that the Canadian result points to what will happen to Reform at the next GE (or beforehand).
The Canadian situation was brought about by a very particular set of events that were immediate in the minds of voters. Canada is also much more badly hit by Trump’s trade policies and his general unhinged-ness, being next door. The Liberals also did an exceptionally well-timed switcheroo at the top.
We have had a lot of predictions that Trump’s antics would damage Reform. As of today, their poll rating is holding up and they will take a load of council seats on Thursday, and potentially win a Westminster by election. I could be persuaded that Trump might be a brake on them expanding their position further, but we don’t have any real evidence of that yet.
Yup. I don't assume people who self-indulgently voted for Brexit would not self-indulgently vote for the man most responsible for it.
Farage also doesn’t need to make MAGA converts of everyone.
He just needs enough people to feel let down by Labour and the Tories.
Reform are a NOTA party.
They don't have a monopoly on the NOTA vote though, do they? Lib Dems regained some of that turf in 2024 having lost it through involvement in the Coalition (making them a OOTA vote for a time). The Greens and Scots/Welsh nationalists also have NOTA appeal.
You can argue in a sense RefUK have greater NOTA appeal - they got more votes than any of those at the last General Election, and are polling higher now. But here's the rub... all those other NOTA parties were more efficient at turning votes into seats in 2024 - the Lib Dems by MILES. That's because they have fewer perceived negatives for NOTA voters (a big negative for Farage being the MAGA connection, which is highly unpopular in the UK).
He was interviewed by Faisal, he commented that Mario Cumo said you campaign in poetry and govern in prose. Well, said Mark Carney, I campaigned in prose and will govern, in...technospeak maybe.
He is extremely bright, articulate, got a sense of humour and a clear vision of how the world works. I am frankly jealous of Canada, whatever his dancing is like.
I remember seeing him speaking off the cuff at a British embassy event in DC - the Chancellor of the time had been called back to London last minute to deal with some Brexit related bullshit and Carney stepped in to make some remarks, and was charming, smart and genuinely, properly, funny. An impressive man.
Yet another thing George Osborne was right about.
That's a short list. Brexit, Carney, the OBR... er, that's it.
The Lutnick thing is not *quite* as stupid as it appears. What is happening is that US automakers (i.e. Ford, GM, Tesla) won't be subject to tariffs on imported car parts. While Mercedes Benz will be.
It's basically just a massive subsidy for US automakers.
Lutnick (who I've met) strikes me as the sort of person that'll be baffled as to where he is. He's an awful choice, but he will really work at not being so awful.
He looks completely insane on TV. Though that maybe because you simply have to act that way in the court of the mad king.
There's a touch of Chauncy Gardiner about all this.
The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs
He is going to scrap his previous policy
This is not a retreat...
Spencer Hakimian @SpencerHakimian · 6m *LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.
🤣🤣🤣
Still trying to wrap my head around that. I think I give up.
"Don't think you can just come over here and build a car factory and bring manufacturing jobs back to the heartland. That's not the point of this tariff policy at all."
Why should they get tariff relief if it’s a screwdriver facility largely reliant on parts from overseas. 🤷♂️
Tariff relief is coming in for car makers based on the domestic content.
‘US Commerce Secretary Lutnick says that all cars finished with 85% domestic content will have zero auto tariffs. US carmakers will receive 15% offset for value of vehicles ageists parts imports‘
So get to 85% domestic content then no tariffs for all car manufacturers.
He was interviewed by Faisal, he commented that Mario Cumo said you campaign in poetry and govern in prose. Well, said Mark Carney, I campaigned in prose and will govern, in...technospeak maybe.
He is extremely bright, articulate, got a sense of humour and a clear vision of how the world works. I am frankly jealous of Canada, whatever his dancing is like.
I remember seeing him speaking off the cuff at a British embassy event in DC - the Chancellor of the time had been called back to London last minute to deal with some Brexit related bullshit and Carney stepped in to make some remarks, and was charming, smart and genuinely, properly, funny. An impressive man.
Sadly his tenure at the Bank of England was marked by political granstanding and (far more importantly) ruinous money printing.
Glad you found him so charming though - makes all the rampant inflation worthwhile somehow doesn't it?
Won't the end effect (apart from nobody being able to plan any kind of business in the US) be that in the US "American" cars will be full of foreign parts and "foreign" cars will be made of American parts?
Though it's unlikely the latest policy will last more than a couple of weeks.
He was interviewed by Faisal, he commented that Mario Cumo said you campaign in poetry and govern in prose. Well, said Mark Carney, I campaigned in prose and will govern, in...technospeak maybe.
He is extremely bright, articulate, got a sense of humour and a clear vision of how the world works. I am frankly jealous of Canada, whatever his dancing is like.
I remember seeing him speaking off the cuff at a British embassy event in DC - the Chancellor of the time had been called back to London last minute to deal with some Brexit related bullshit and Carney stepped in to make some remarks, and was charming, smart and genuinely, properly, funny. An impressive man.
Yet another thing George Osborne was right about.
That's a short list. Brexit, Carney, the OBR... er, that's it.
He was interviewed by Faisal, he commented that Mario Cumo said you campaign in poetry and govern in prose. Well, said Mark Carney, I campaigned in prose and will govern, in...technospeak maybe.
He is extremely bright, articulate, got a sense of humour and a clear vision of how the world works. I am frankly jealous of Canada, whatever his dancing is like.
I remember seeing him speaking off the cuff at a British embassy event in DC - the Chancellor of the time had been called back to London last minute to deal with some Brexit related bullshit and Carney stepped in to make some remarks, and was charming, smart and genuinely, properly, funny. An impressive man.
Sadly his tenure at the Bank of England was marked by political granstanding and (far more importantly) ruinous money printing.
Glad you found him so charming though - makes all the rampant inflation worthwhile somehow doesn't it?
Hi Liz, hope you're keeping well.
As a minor fact check, and without defending every aspect of Carney's record, CPI was at 1.5% when he left the Bank of England.
The whole Trump admin has the stench of Hitler/Mussolini about it.
Trump 2.0 is way less impressive than Hitler or Mussolini
Hitler did conquer nearly all of Europe and came quite close to winning a world war. Mussolini did something cool with trains, I forget exactly what
Eg what was Trump thinking with that *tweet* last night banging on about Canada as the 51st state AGAIN just before the election. What did it benefit him!?
Either he’s a Russian agent sent to roil the West or he is a piece of performance art or he is now actually insane and there is no one in his inner circle able or willing to say Get a grip
Hitler was a model of calm good sense in contrast. At least until ~1942
I think I might entirely forgive Trump if he outs himself as a Dadaist.
He was interviewed by Faisal, he commented that Mario Cumo said you campaign in poetry and govern in prose. Well, said Mark Carney, I campaigned in prose and will govern, in...technospeak maybe.
He is extremely bright, articulate, got a sense of humour and a clear vision of how the world works. I am frankly jealous of Canada, whatever his dancing is like.
I remember seeing him speaking off the cuff at a British embassy event in DC - the Chancellor of the time had been called back to London last minute to deal with some Brexit related bullshit and Carney stepped in to make some remarks, and was charming, smart and genuinely, properly, funny. An impressive man.
Sadly his tenure at the Bank of England was marked by political granstanding and (far more importantly) ruinous money printing.
Glad you found him so charming though - makes all the rampant inflation worthwhile somehow doesn't it?
Hi Liz, hope you're keeping well.
With much respect and affection for the lady, I don't think she's as funny as me.
The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs
He is going to scrap his previous policy
This is not a retreat...
Spencer Hakimian @SpencerHakimian · 6m *LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.
🤣🤣🤣
Still trying to wrap my head around that. I think I give up.
"Don't think you can just come over here and build a car factory and bring manufacturing jobs back to the heartland. That's not the point of this tariff policy at all."
Why should they get tariff relief if it’s a screwdriver facility largely reliant on parts from overseas. 🤷♂️
Tariff relief is coming in for car makers based on the domestic content.
You pay tariffs on imported car parts already.
I love the way the administration announces its latest batshit policy, and a load of people crop up trying to rationalise it. Rather than saying, "that's batshit".
The Lutnick thing is not *quite* as stupid as it appears. What is happening is that US automakers (i.e. Ford, GM, Tesla) won't be subject to tariffs on imported car parts. While Mercedes Benz will be.
It's basically just a massive subsidy for US automakers.
It is not ‘how it appears’ it’s how some people choose to present it here without actually looking at the detail behind it. Just cut and paste some crap off Twitter from someone with an agenda like Krassenstein or Rupar, and present it as fact and people soak it up like a sponge as it reflects their prejudices.
Yes, it is a massive subsidy but it is also showing that they are starting to roll back on the tariffs, mitigating the effects, and that’s not a bad thing.
He was interviewed by Faisal, he commented that Mario Cumo said you campaign in poetry and govern in prose. Well, said Mark Carney, I campaigned in prose and will govern, in...technospeak maybe.
He is extremely bright, articulate, got a sense of humour and a clear vision of how the world works. I am frankly jealous of Canada, whatever his dancing is like.
I remember seeing him speaking off the cuff at a British embassy event in DC - the Chancellor of the time had been called back to London last minute to deal with some Brexit related bullshit and Carney stepped in to make some remarks, and was charming, smart and genuinely, properly, funny. An impressive man.
Sadly his tenure at the Bank of England was marked by political granstanding and (far more importantly) ruinous money printing.
Glad you found him so charming though - makes all the rampant inflation worthwhile somehow doesn't it?
Hi Liz, hope you're keeping well.
With much respect and affection for the lady, I don't think she's as funny as me.
He was interviewed by Faisal, he commented that Mario Cumo said you campaign in poetry and govern in prose. Well, said Mark Carney, I campaigned in prose and will govern, in...technospeak maybe.
He is extremely bright, articulate, got a sense of humour and a clear vision of how the world works. I am frankly jealous of Canada, whatever his dancing is like.
I remember seeing him speaking off the cuff at a British embassy event in DC - the Chancellor of the time had been called back to London last minute to deal with some Brexit related bullshit and Carney stepped in to make some remarks, and was charming, smart and genuinely, properly, funny. An impressive man.
Sadly his tenure at the Bank of England was marked by political granstanding and (far more importantly) ruinous money printing.
Glad you found him so charming though - makes all the rampant inflation worthwhile somehow doesn't it?
Hi Liz, hope you're keeping well.
With much respect and affection for the lady, I don't think she's as funny as me.
Apologies if this has been covered but absolutely horrendous forecasts by the Atlantic Fed for tomorrow morning forecasting -1.5% (or even -2.7% on a different measure). US figures are always inflated by the tendency to give annual rather than quarterly figures but these are really bad numbers. Really bad. Trumpian even. https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
Yes my Q1 GDP tracker is similar. We'll get the first proper estimate from the BEA on Thursday. But there's some funny stuff going on with imports (tariff front-running, basically), even adjusting for an additional distortion related to gold flows. Imports are subtracted from the other items to estimate GDP, so the imports surge accounts for much of the likely weakness in the headline number. In theory the imports have an offset in consumption spending, fixed investment or a temporary build in inventories, but it looks like this isn't showing up in the data yet. So the weakness is probably more a reflection of imperfect measurement as much as anything else. There is also some evidence for residual seasonality biasing the Q1 numbers down since Covid. In other words, you should take Q1 weakness with a pinch of salt. On the other hand, Q2 and Q3 may well be properly, legitimately, terrible, because Trump has decided to blow up the economy.
He was interviewed by Faisal, he commented that Mario Cumo said you campaign in poetry and govern in prose. Well, said Mark Carney, I campaigned in prose and will govern, in...technospeak maybe.
He is extremely bright, articulate, got a sense of humour and a clear vision of how the world works. I am frankly jealous of Canada, whatever his dancing is like.
I remember seeing him speaking off the cuff at a British embassy event in DC - the Chancellor of the time had been called back to London last minute to deal with some Brexit related bullshit and Carney stepped in to make some remarks, and was charming, smart and genuinely, properly, funny. An impressive man.
Sadly his tenure at the Bank of England was marked by political granstanding and (far more importantly) ruinous money printing.
Glad you found him so charming though - makes all the rampant inflation worthwhile somehow doesn't it?
Hi Liz, hope you're keeping well.
With much respect and affection for the lady, I don't think she's as funny as me.
Oh, I think the rest of us find her FAR funnier.
I'm sure she's sobbing all the way to the bank.
I'm sure she scrapes a living, but people don't laugh at her because she's struggling to buy butter.
The amusement comes from the spectacular failure of her short time in office, from her failure to have taken any meaningful lessons from it, and from her increasingly desperate and doomed attempts to regain the relevance and influence she ever so briefly enjoyed.
The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs
He is going to scrap his previous policy
This is not a retreat...
Spencer Hakimian @SpencerHakimian · 6m *LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.
🤣🤣🤣
Lol wtf. This has got to be the most stupid policy I've ever seen. What's the endgame here, lock out foreign car makers from the US market so that the likes of GM and Ford have a duopoly?
And how are you going to attract investment from the likes of TSMC if you are saying "well we might just tariff what you make here if we feel like it"?
Yeah it's completely mental. I don't understand this thinking at all, propping up failing US car companies by effectively blocking foreign brands just seems like a step into the dark for the US economy. There's a tiny kernel of logic behind tariffs to bring back manufacturing, but this makes less than zero sense. Foreign companies will quietly freeze investment and redirect to Mexico, why bother with a higher US cost structure when you get the same tariffs from low cost Mexico anyway?
The thinking (such as it is) is "I like tariffs". Imagine that said in the same voice Waynetta Slob used to say "I'm having a fag."
The tariffs aren't a means to an end, they are an end in themselves.
Comments
As a general point I think the influence of randomness on everything (inc sport and politics) is under-appreciated. It's an input into my betting, that is. I look for where odds aren't paying sufficient regard to randomness.
@SpencerHakimian
·
6m
*LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.
🤣🤣🤣
The important question is what is the ceiling for the cult? How many independents will peel off from this bollocks?
I think I give up.
Is it because tariffs are "just like VAT" ?
Aaron Rupar
@atrupar
·
6m
for the second straight day, Leavitt is doing a White House briefing exclusively for MAGA influencers
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1917254789005463629
He chose the Face-Eating Leopard.
I do feel slightly for him, as I do with Truss. From being top of the heap, or at least next top of the heap, to being chucked out of your own seat is a hell of a long drop. It unhinged people
As as aside, I spent the day in Cambridge yesterday doing chores (*), and I saw my first electric tandem bike. Then, an hour later, I saw a different type of tandem bike, also electric. You wait years for an electric tandem, then two come along at once!
(*) A codeword for enjoying the sunshine.
Notable though for being the birthplace of PM Carney, with his father a school teacher and mother a homemaker. Real log cabin stuff.
Meanwhile in opposition they steadfastly opposed it !
https://x.com/benobesejecty/status/1917241602306707965?s=61
Tariff relief is coming in for car makers based on the domestic content.
Northwest Territories, density 0.03 people/sq. km.
Yukon, density 0.08 people/sq. km.
Insects are BACK!
https://www.libdems.org.uk/conference/motions/autumn-2024/f32
(Just kiddin')
Some Americans are willing to pay more for products that are produced in ways and places they approve of. (I am one of them: I prefer, for example, to avoid products made by the ChiComs -- when I can.)
Amazon would, I believe, be hurt by a requirement that they state the origin for every product they sell.
(My apologies for being vague on the legal requirements. I am not a lawyer, much less one specializing in that subject.)
It's a genuinely retarded policy that will reduce US manufacturing.
YES AND HO
Who is going to be the MAGA Peter Mannion and declare "that's fucking mental"?
Hitler did conquer nearly all of Europe and came quite close to winning a world war. Mussolini did something cool with trains, I forget exactly what
Eg what was Trump thinking with that *tweet* last night banging on about Canada as the 51st state AGAIN just before the election. What did it benefit him!?
Either he’s a Russian agent sent to roil the West or he is a piece of performance art or he is now actually
insane and there is no one in his inner circle able or willing to say Get a grip
Hitler was a model of calm good sense in contrast. At least until ~1942
Commentators are still analysing policy as if it exists in the real world, rather than in Trumps alternative reality.
It's all about national output. Widgets, Ideas, whatever. Stuff. We need to make the most commercially viable stuff. We need to make it now and I want to see evidence of doing so here. (Withnail..)
Trump is just an Hallucinating AI made human
https://www.techdirt.com/2025/04/29/the-hallucinating-chatgpt-presidency/
The tariffs aren't a means to an end, they are an end in themselves.
Likewise Ford used to sell a lot of cars for decades the Fiesta was the top selling car in the UK and I think the Puma is close to the position now.
But all those cars were models explicitly built for the overseas market because American cars are designed for american roads and are just too big for the rest of the world.
The issue is that Trump is an idiot surrounded by idiots who want to keep the chief idiot happy.
The Lutnick thing is not *quite* as stupid as it appears. What is happening is that US automakers (i.e. Ford, GM, Tesla) won't be subject to tariffs on imported car parts. While Mercedes Benz will be.
It's basically just a massive subsidy for US automakers.
Trump is stuck in about 1987 or 1995 when America was economically hegemonic and really could order the world around. He’s probably tried to adapt to the new order but deep down, nah
Hence his foreign policy which basically consists of him shouting at other countries and expecting them to obey. And an economic policy which makes sense if America is 35% of world GDP and China isn’t a deadly rival which can ride out any American tantrums - indeed benefit from them
At very first glance I could see that the idea had merit in helping US car manufacturers but it only took 30 seconds for common sense to make the serious flaws obvious.
He was interviewed by Faisal, he commented that Mario Cumo said you campaign in poetry and govern in prose. Well, said Mark Carney, I campaigned in prose and will govern, in...technospeak maybe.
He is extremely bright, articulate, got a sense of humour and a clear vision of how the world works. I am frankly jealous of Canada, whatever his dancing is like.
Impress me
I can't work out if I should go the beach or watch the football.
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
lol. They seem quite happy TBF
He just needs enough people to feel let down by Labour and the Tories.
Reform are a NOTA party.
The problem comes when it becomes dominant- especially when you have someone like Trump, with massive ego, minimal impulse control and a dodgy understanding of the Good Old Days.
And what about next week? Could be anything. Fining people for not buying Teslas?
I love Coal Drops Yard - it’s one of the best bits of the magnificent King’s X development. But it’s just not working. It’s too inaccessible and too posh
They need to drastically rethink it and provide some radical new way to there - and reason to go there
But if we're reading anything into it on one data point, it's that the story wasn't a collapse in the Conservative vote but a consolidation around their opponents. Being seen as a bit Trumpy might not damage you particularly but it seems to heavily motivate your opponents into forming a coherent vote against.
You can argue in a sense RefUK have greater NOTA appeal - they got more votes than any of those at the last General Election, and are polling higher now. But here's the rub... all those other NOTA parties were more efficient at turning votes into seats in 2024 - the Lib Dems by MILES. That's because they have fewer perceived negatives for NOTA voters (a big negative for Farage being the MAGA connection, which is highly unpopular in the UK).
https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1917254411962954135?s=61
This is what they are saying.
‘US Commerce Secretary Lutnick says that all cars finished with 85% domestic content will have zero auto tariffs. US carmakers will receive 15% offset for value of vehicles ageists parts imports‘
So get to 85% domestic content then no tariffs for all car manufacturers.
Glad you found him so charming though - makes all the rampant inflation worthwhile somehow doesn't it?
Though it's unlikely the latest policy will last more than a couple of weeks.
As a minor fact check, and without defending every aspect of Carney's record, CPI was at 1.5% when he left the Bank of England.
Rather than saying, "that's batshit".
Yes, it is a massive subsidy but it is also showing that they are starting to roll back on the tariffs, mitigating the effects, and that’s not a bad thing.
There is also some evidence for residual seasonality biasing the Q1 numbers down since Covid. In other words, you should take Q1 weakness with a pinch of salt. On the other hand, Q2 and Q3 may well be properly, legitimately, terrible, because Trump has decided to blow up the economy.
The amusement comes from the spectacular failure of her short time in office, from her failure to have taken any meaningful lessons from it, and from her increasingly desperate and doomed attempts to regain the relevance and influence she ever so briefly enjoyed.
They change every week or so.