Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Three months ago Pierre Poilievre’s party was leading by 27% in the polls – politicalbetting.com

245

Comments

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,856
    Andy_JS said:

    kinabalu said:

    Well you have to feel for Poilievre. Three months ago he's nailed on to be PM of Canada. Now he not only isn't, he's lost his seat. Politics is a rough old game.

    And none of it was his fault.
    No, just events really.

    As a general point I think the influence of randomness on everything (inc sport and politics) is under-appreciated. It's an input into my betting, that is. I look for where odds aren't paying sufficient regard to randomness.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,604
    Scott_xP said:

    The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs

    He is going to scrap his previous policy

    This is not a retreat...

    Spencer Hakimian
    @SpencerHakimian
    ·
    6m
    *LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.

    🤣🤣🤣
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,604
    I thought Bezos was besties with Trump?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,926

    Pulpstar said:

    FPT: The question of what's driving Trump's unpopularity

    (((Harry Enten)))
    @ForecasterEnten
    ·
    1m
    Trump's worst number? 60% say he's out of touch with most Americans. Why?

    Tariffs. They're what most associate with Trump & are incredibly unpopular (65% disapprove).

    If term 1 was about Trump's personality/Twitter use 100 days in, term 2 is about a very unpopular policy.

    He still has his supporters:

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1917233413506965757

    Ainsley Earhardt: "He is so good at communicating. It's such a gift ... He knows about every sport. He knows about trade. He knows about the border. He's so equipped for this job, and I think he's having more fun this go round ... he is gifted."
    Good at communicating? These days he can barely string a coherent sentence together.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,604
    Bessant looks like a man about to walk to me.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,604
    Chris said:

    Pulpstar said:

    FPT: The question of what's driving Trump's unpopularity

    (((Harry Enten)))
    @ForecasterEnten
    ·
    1m
    Trump's worst number? 60% say he's out of touch with most Americans. Why?

    Tariffs. They're what most associate with Trump & are incredibly unpopular (65% disapprove).

    If term 1 was about Trump's personality/Twitter use 100 days in, term 2 is about a very unpopular policy.

    He still has his supporters:

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1917233413506965757

    Ainsley Earhardt: "He is so good at communicating. It's such a gift ... He knows about every sport. He knows about trade. He knows about the border. He's so equipped for this job, and I think he's having more fun this go round ... he is gifted."
    Good at communicating? These days he can barely string a coherent sentence together.
    There is no point trying to bring reason to this: these people are in a cult and literally worship him and, as someone on PB (sorry forget who) keeps saying, allows them to project all their fantasies and hopes on to.

    The important question is what is the ceiling for the cult? How many independents will peel off from this bollocks?
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,520

    Bessant looks like a man about to walk to me.

    The whole Trump admin has the stench of Hitler/Mussolini about it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,919
    edited April 29

    Scott_xP said:

    The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs

    He is going to scrap his previous policy

    This is not a retreat...

    Spencer Hakimian
    @SpencerHakimian
    ·
    6m
    *LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.

    🤣🤣🤣
    Still trying to wrap my head around that.
    I think I give up.

    Is it because tariffs are "just like VAT" ?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,604

    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar
    ·
    6m
    for the second straight day, Leavitt is doing a White House briefing exclusively for MAGA influencers

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1917254789005463629
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,650
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs

    He is going to scrap his previous policy

    This is not a retreat...

    Spencer Hakimian
    @SpencerHakimian
    ·
    6m
    *LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.

    🤣🤣🤣
    Still trying to wrap my head around that.
    I think I give up.
    File under "Yer don't know what yer doin'..."
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,604
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs

    He is going to scrap his previous policy

    This is not a retreat...

    Spencer Hakimian
    @SpencerHakimian
    ·
    6m
    *LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.

    🤣🤣🤣
    Still trying to wrap my head around that.
    I think I give up.
    "Don't think you can just come over here and build a car factory and bring manufacturing jobs back to the heartland. That's not the point of this tariff policy at all."
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,604

    Bessant looks like a man about to walk to me.

    The whole Trump admin has the stench of Hitler/Mussolini about it.
    The Amazon thing is fascinating. Do they smell blood in the water, given the polling? Prepared to fight back?

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,356
    Andy_JS said:

    kinabalu said:

    Well you have to feel for Poilievre. Three months ago he's nailed on to be PM of Canada. Now he not only isn't, he's lost his seat. Politics is a rough old game.

    And none of it was his fault.
    On the contrary. He chose to be pro-Trump.

    He chose the Face-Eating Leopard.

    I do feel slightly for him, as I do with Truss. From being top of the heap, or at least next top of the heap, to being chucked out of your own seat is a hell of a long drop. It unhinged people

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,356

    Bessant looks like a man about to walk to me.

    The whole Trump admin has the stench of Hitler/Mussolini about it.
    Really? I didn't think Trump was anywhere near so professional and organised.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,356

    slade said:

    7 former Labour councillors in Slough have joined the Lib Dems.

    "Slough Liberal Democrat councillor group will be greatly strengthened by the addition of Cllr Sabia Akram, Cllr Waqas Sabah, Cllr Zaffar Ajaib, Cllr Haqeeq Dar, Cllr Mohammed Nazir, Cllr Naveeda Qaseem, Cllr Jamila Sabah..."

    South Asian politics playing out?
    Gaza perhaps.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,351
    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Donny phoned Bezos this morning when the story broke

    Amazon then released a statement saying they had no plans to show tariff costs on their website

    So what’s he been offered as a concession ?
    He gets to keep his kneecaps?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,650
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    kinabalu said:

    Well you have to feel for Poilievre. Three months ago he's nailed on to be PM of Canada. Now he not only isn't, he's lost his seat. Politics is a rough old game.

    And none of it was his fault.
    On the contrary. He chose to be pro-Trump.

    He chose the Face-Eating Leopard.

    I do feel slightly for him, as I do with Truss. From being top of the heap, or at least next top of the heap, to being chucked out of your own seat is a hell of a long drop. It unhinged people

    In Truss's case, it's for unhinged people...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,919
    Mass shooting reported in Uppsala.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,419

    Actually the best comparison for Pierre is Jeremy Corbyn.

    Corbyn's ratings went into the toilet and never recovered after his response to the Salisbury poisonings, after that he was seen a Britain hating traitor who would always side with our enemies.

    As a former Tory MP observed to me at the time, the SNP, a party committed to the break up of the UK, were convinced by the evidence of Russian involvement but Corbyn wasn't.

    I think this is a bit of a stupid comparison (a Tory MP being stupid, whatever next?). The SNP aren't some kind of anti-patriotic party, quite the opposite. They are Scottish patriots, just not British patriots. And indeed some of those more on the Sturgeon civic nationalist wing aren't even hostile to England, they just don't want to be ruled from Westmister. So there's no reason at all for the SNP to be favourably disposed to Putin's Russia.
    Corbyn's stupidity on this topic on the other hand was all too evident. Unfortunately like many on the far left he extrapolated from the many failures of Western foreign policy to deduce that Russia is somehow a victim rather than what it has become - one of the most explicitly imperialist countries in the world.
    Salmond's SNP panda-ed to China.
    And Cameron and Osborne rolled out the red carpet to Beijing around the same time. I don't have much time for the SNP but the way that some English rightwingers can't get their head past the idea that they are some kind of traitors is absurd.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,650

    Bessant looks like a man about to walk to me.

    I stand by my prediction that Trump's administration will be unrecognisable by the New Year.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,496

    Bessant looks like a man about to walk to me.

    I stand by my prediction that Trump's administration will be unrecognisable by the New Year.
    You think blue-rinse?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,756

    IanB2 said:

    Is it just me, or are we now awash with flies, in this warm weather?

    All manner of stuff is out. Not just flies, but hoverflies, butterflies - and just seen a black oil beetle. The moths have been active the last few nights, with some of the bigger beasts waking up. I expect the cockchafers* will be out very shortly.

    *mentioned solely so that TSE can have a snigger...
    I remember when Bradley Walsh on ITV's The Chase had a snigger or two when "cockchafer" came up in a question :lol:
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,712
    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Donny phoned Bezos this morning when the story broke

    Amazon then released a statement saying they had no plans to show tariff costs on their website

    So what’s he been offered as a concession ?
    He gets to keep his kneecaps?
    They’ve lost the Eden Project gig though !
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,430

    IanB2 said:

    Is it just me, or are we now awash with flies, in this warm weather?

    All manner of stuff is out. Not just flies, but hoverflies, butterflies - and just seen a black oil beetle. The moths have been active the last few nights, with some of the bigger beasts waking up. I expect the cockchafers* will be out very shortly.

    *mentioned solely so that TSE can have a snigger...
    I did a 44km bike ride on Sunday, and forgot my glasses. I did not get a single fly in my eye. This morning I did a 24km ride with my sunglasses on, and I got two insects in my eye within the first kilometre...

    As as aside, I spent the day in Cambridge yesterday doing chores (*), and I saw my first electric tandem bike. Then, an hour later, I saw a different type of tandem bike, also electric. You wait years for an electric tandem, then two come along at once!

    (*) A codeword for enjoying the sunshine.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,356
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Is Nunavut the world's lowest pop density electoral division ?

    Amazing how it's an undersized constituency considering how colosally massive it is. I guess polar bears don't vote :D

    Similar applies in the Hebrides.
    Nunavut, area of France, Spain, UK, Germany and Portugal combined (ish). Population of Warwick.
    Northwest Territories must be up there too. Over a million square kilometres and 40 000 people.

    Notable though for being the birthplace of PM Carney, with his father a school teacher and mother a homemaker. Real log cabin stuff.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,712
    So labour, today, come out in a cynical ploy before the locals on deporting asylum seekers convicted of sex crimes although it will never happen, the legal system will see to that.

    Meanwhile in opposition they steadfastly opposed it !

    https://x.com/benobesejecty/status/1917241602306707965?s=61
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,650
    Foxy said:

    slade said:

    7 former Labour councillors in Slough have joined the Lib Dems.

    "Slough Liberal Democrat councillor group will be greatly strengthened by the addition of Cllr Sabia Akram, Cllr Waqas Sabah, Cllr Zaffar Ajaib, Cllr Haqeeq Dar, Cllr Mohammed Nazir, Cllr Naveeda Qaseem, Cllr Jamila Sabah..."

    South Asian politics playing out?
    Gaza perhaps.
    Always the most likely. But I can't say I'm familiar with LibDem policy on it.

  • TazTaz Posts: 17,712

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs

    He is going to scrap his previous policy

    This is not a retreat...

    Spencer Hakimian
    @SpencerHakimian
    ·
    6m
    *LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.

    🤣🤣🤣
    Still trying to wrap my head around that.
    I think I give up.
    "Don't think you can just come over here and build a car factory and bring manufacturing jobs back to the heartland. That's not the point of this tariff policy at all."
    Why should they get tariff relief if it’s a screwdriver facility largely reliant on parts from overseas. 🤷‍♂️

    Tariff relief is coming in for car makers based on the domestic content.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,756
    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Is Nunavut the world's lowest pop density electoral division ?

    Amazing how it's an undersized constituency considering how colosally massive it is. I guess polar bears don't vote :D

    Similar applies in the Hebrides.
    Nunavut, area of France, Spain, UK, Germany and Portugal combined (ish). Population of Warwick.
    Northwest Territories must be up there too. Over a million square kilometres and 40 000 people.

    Notable though for being the birthplace of PM Carney, with his father a school teacher and mother a homemaker. Real log cabin stuff.
    Nunavut, density 0.02 people/sq. km.
    Northwest Territories, density 0.03 people/sq. km.
    Yukon, density 0.08 people/sq. km.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,356

    IanB2 said:

    Is it just me, or are we now awash with flies, in this warm weather?

    All manner of stuff is out. Not just flies, but hoverflies, butterflies - and just seen a black oil beetle. The moths have been active the last few nights, with some of the bigger beasts waking up. I expect the cockchafers* will be out very shortly.

    *mentioned solely so that TSE can have a snigger...
    I did a 44km bike ride on Sunday, and forgot my glasses. I did not get a single fly in my eye. This morning I did a 24km ride with my sunglasses on, and I got two insects in my eye within the first kilometre...

    As as aside, I spent the day in Cambridge yesterday doing chores (*), and I saw my first electric tandem bike. Then, an hour later, I saw a different type of tandem bike, also electric. You wait years for an electric tandem, then two come along at once!

    (*) A codeword for enjoying the sunshine.
    After my drive back from the IoW at the weekend I had a bug spattered grille and windscreen. I havent seen that for years.

    Insects are BACK!
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,712

    Foxy said:

    slade said:

    7 former Labour councillors in Slough have joined the Lib Dems.

    "Slough Liberal Democrat councillor group will be greatly strengthened by the addition of Cllr Sabia Akram, Cllr Waqas Sabah, Cllr Zaffar Ajaib, Cllr Haqeeq Dar, Cllr Mohammed Nazir, Cllr Naveeda Qaseem, Cllr Jamila Sabah..."

    South Asian politics playing out?
    Gaza perhaps.
    Always the most likely. But I can't say I'm familiar with LibDem policy on it.

    It will vary from ward to ward based on the electorate.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,848

    Scott_xP said:

    The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs

    He is going to scrap his previous policy

    This is not a retreat...

    Spencer Hakimian
    @SpencerHakimian
    ·
    6m
    *LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.

    🤣🤣🤣
    Lol wtf. This has got to be the most stupid policy I've ever seen. What's the endgame here, lock out foreign car makers from the US market so that the likes of GM and Ford have a duopoly?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,543
    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs

    He is going to scrap his previous policy

    This is not a retreat...

    Spencer Hakimian
    @SpencerHakimian
    ·
    6m
    *LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.

    🤣🤣🤣
    Still trying to wrap my head around that.
    I think I give up.
    "Don't think you can just come over here and build a car factory and bring manufacturing jobs back to the heartland. That's not the point of this tariff policy at all."
    Why should they get tariff relief if it’s a screwdriver facility largely reliant on parts from overseas. 🤷‍♂️

    Tariff relief is coming in for car makers based on the domestic content.
    You pay tariffs on imported car parts already.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,496

    IanB2 said:

    Is it just me, or are we now awash with flies, in this warm weather?

    All manner of stuff is out. Not just flies, but hoverflies, butterflies - and just seen a black oil beetle. The moths have been active the last few nights, with some of the bigger beasts waking up. I expect the cockchafers* will be out very shortly.

    *mentioned solely so that TSE can have a snigger...
    I remember when Bradley Walsh on ITV's The Chase had a snigger or two when "cockchafer" came up in a question :lol:
    Well there it stands. My long time like for @Sunil_Prasannan washed away. He's clearly come out now as 'cheap seats' Sunil. A big positive on trains, but there is no way back from the gratuitous chumminess with ghastly. Ghastly and all his mates.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,756
    Taz said:

    viewcode said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Donny phoned Bezos this morning when the story broke

    Amazon then released a statement saying they had no plans to show tariff costs on their website

    So what’s he been offered as a concession ?
    He gets to keep his kneecaps?
    They’ve lost the Eden Project gig though !
    Apparently, they're headlining the Wide Awake Festival in Brockwell Park, Sarf London, next month.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,543

    Scott_xP said:

    The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs

    He is going to scrap his previous policy

    This is not a retreat...

    Spencer Hakimian
    @SpencerHakimian
    ·
    6m
    *LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.

    🤣🤣🤣
    That is insane.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,356
    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    slade said:

    7 former Labour councillors in Slough have joined the Lib Dems.

    "Slough Liberal Democrat councillor group will be greatly strengthened by the addition of Cllr Sabia Akram, Cllr Waqas Sabah, Cllr Zaffar Ajaib, Cllr Haqeeq Dar, Cllr Mohammed Nazir, Cllr Naveeda Qaseem, Cllr Jamila Sabah..."

    South Asian politics playing out?
    Gaza perhaps.
    Always the most likely. But I can't say I'm familiar with LibDem policy on it.

    It will vary from ward to ward based on the electorate.
    I know that you are not making a serious response. The correct answer is found here:

    https://www.libdems.org.uk/conference/motions/autumn-2024/f32
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,295
    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs

    He is going to scrap his previous policy

    This is not a retreat...

    Spencer Hakimian
    @SpencerHakimian
    ·
    6m
    *LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.

    🤣🤣🤣
    Lol wtf. This has got to be the most stupid policy I've ever seen. What's the endgame here, lock out foreign car makers from the US market so that the likes of GM and Ford have a duopoly?
    Trumps issue is that he sees Mercedes in New York but not GM in Paris or Frankfurt. So Mercedes building in the US doesn't fix it for him. It has nothing to do with economics as understood by the rest of the world.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,543
    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs

    He is going to scrap his previous policy

    This is not a retreat...

    Spencer Hakimian
    @SpencerHakimian
    ·
    6m
    *LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.

    🤣🤣🤣
    Lol wtf. This has got to be the most stupid policy I've ever seen. What's the endgame here, lock out foreign car makers from the US market so that the likes of GM and Ford have a duopoly?
    And how are you going to attract investment from the likes of TSMC if you are saying "well we might just tariff what you make here if we feel like it"?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,756
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Is it just me, or are we now awash with flies, in this warm weather?

    All manner of stuff is out. Not just flies, but hoverflies, butterflies - and just seen a black oil beetle. The moths have been active the last few nights, with some of the bigger beasts waking up. I expect the cockchafers* will be out very shortly.

    *mentioned solely so that TSE can have a snigger...
    I did a 44km bike ride on Sunday, and forgot my glasses. I did not get a single fly in my eye. This morning I did a 24km ride with my sunglasses on, and I got two insects in my eye within the first kilometre...

    As as aside, I spent the day in Cambridge yesterday doing chores (*), and I saw my first electric tandem bike. Then, an hour later, I saw a different type of tandem bike, also electric. You wait years for an electric tandem, then two come along at once!

    (*) A codeword for enjoying the sunshine.
    After my drive back from the IoW at the weekend I had a bug spattered grille and windscreen. I havent seen that for years.

    Insects are BACK!
    Except for the ones your grille and windscreen gratuitously MURDERED!

    (Just kiddin')
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,282
    FPT: US Amazon has a policy that differs from long-established American law for stores: When I go into Best Buy, or a supermarket, I can usually see where a product was produced before I buy it. With Amazon, I usually can't. (American producers can include that in their descriptions, and sometimes do.)

    Some Americans are willing to pay more for products that are produced in ways and places they approve of. (I am one of them: I prefer, for example, to avoid products made by the ChiComs -- when I can.)

    Amazon would, I believe, be hurt by a requirement that they state the origin for every product they sell.

    (My apologies for being vague on the legal requirements. I am not a lawyer, much less one specializing in that subject.)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,848
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs

    He is going to scrap his previous policy

    This is not a retreat...

    Spencer Hakimian
    @SpencerHakimian
    ·
    6m
    *LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.

    🤣🤣🤣
    Lol wtf. This has got to be the most stupid policy I've ever seen. What's the endgame here, lock out foreign car makers from the US market so that the likes of GM and Ford have a duopoly?
    And how are you going to attract investment from the likes of TSMC if you are saying "well we might just tariff what you make here if we feel like it"?
    Yeah it's completely mental. I don't understand this thinking at all, propping up failing US car companies by effectively blocking foreign brands just seems like a step into the dark for the US economy. There's a tiny kernel of logic behind tariffs to bring back manufacturing, but this makes less than zero sense. Foreign companies will quietly freeze investment and redirect to Mexico, why bother with a higher US cost structure when you get the same tariffs from low cost Mexico anyway?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,543
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs

    He is going to scrap his previous policy

    This is not a retreat...

    Spencer Hakimian
    @SpencerHakimian
    ·
    6m
    *LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.

    🤣🤣🤣
    Lol wtf. This has got to be the most stupid policy I've ever seen. What's the endgame here, lock out foreign car makers from the US market so that the likes of GM and Ford have a duopoly?
    And how are you going to attract investment from the likes of TSMC if you are saying "well we might just tariff what you make here if we feel like it"?
    Yeah it's completely mental. I don't understand this thinking at all, propping up failing US car companies by effectively blocking foreign brands just seems like a step into the dark for the US economy. There's a tiny kernel of logic behind tariffs to bring back manufacturing, but this makes less than zero sense. Foreign companies will quietly freeze investment and redirect to Mexico, why bother with a higher US cost structure when you get the same tariffs from low cost Mexico anyway?
    And in Mexico you don't need to pay for the tariffs on steel and aluminum, and on car parts.

    It's a genuinely retarded policy that will reduce US manufacturing.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,848

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs

    He is going to scrap his previous policy

    This is not a retreat...

    Spencer Hakimian
    @SpencerHakimian
    ·
    6m
    *LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.

    🤣🤣🤣
    Lol wtf. This has got to be the most stupid policy I've ever seen. What's the endgame here, lock out foreign car makers from the US market so that the likes of GM and Ford have a duopoly?
    Trumps issue is that he sees Mercedes in New York but not GM in Paris or Frankfurt. So Mercedes building in the US doesn't fix it for him. It has nothing to do with economics as understood by the rest of the world.
    Because they're shite. America has/had an internationally competitive marque but then Elon Musk went and fucked it.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,892
    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs

    He is going to scrap his previous policy

    This is not a retreat...

    Spencer Hakimian
    @SpencerHakimian
    ·
    6m
    *LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.

    🤣🤣🤣
    Lol wtf. This has got to be the most stupid policy I've ever seen. What's the endgame here, lock out foreign car makers from the US market so that the likes of GM and Ford have a duopoly?
    "Lets put a tariff on automakers who build their cars in our country"

    YES AND HO

    Who is going to be the MAGA Peter Mannion and declare "that's fucking mental"?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,950
    edited April 29

    Bessant looks like a man about to walk to me.

    The whole Trump admin has the stench of Hitler/Mussolini about it.
    Trump 2.0 is way less impressive than Hitler or Mussolini

    Hitler did conquer nearly all of Europe and came quite close to winning a world war. Mussolini did something cool with trains, I forget exactly what

    Eg what was Trump thinking with that *tweet* last night banging on about Canada as the 51st state AGAIN just before the election. What did it benefit him!?

    Either he’s a Russian agent sent to roil the West or he is a piece of performance art or he is now actually
    insane and there is no one in his inner circle able or willing to say Get a grip

    Hitler was a model of calm good sense in contrast. At least until ~1942
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,295
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs

    He is going to scrap his previous policy

    This is not a retreat...

    Spencer Hakimian
    @SpencerHakimian
    ·
    6m
    *LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.

    🤣🤣🤣
    Lol wtf. This has got to be the most stupid policy I've ever seen. What's the endgame here, lock out foreign car makers from the US market so that the likes of GM and Ford have a duopoly?
    Trumps issue is that he sees Mercedes in New York but not GM in Paris or Frankfurt. So Mercedes building in the US doesn't fix it for him. It has nothing to do with economics as understood by the rest of the world.
    Because they're shite. America has/had an internationally competitive marque but then Elon Musk went and fucked it.
    Not just shite, but completely unsuitable for export markets too. However, if they are shite compared to the competition and you want to see a similar percentage of US cars in Europe to European cars in the US, you have to raise the price of the EU brands in the US.

    Commentators are still analysing policy as if it exists in the real world, rather than in Trumps alternative reality.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,496
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs

    He is going to scrap his previous policy

    This is not a retreat...

    Spencer Hakimian
    @SpencerHakimian
    ·
    6m
    *LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.

    🤣🤣🤣
    Lol wtf. This has got to be the most stupid policy I've ever seen. What's the endgame here, lock out foreign car makers from the US market so that the likes of GM and Ford have a duopoly?
    And how are you going to attract investment from the likes of TSMC if you are saying "well we might just tariff what you make here if we feel like it"?
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs

    He is going to scrap his previous policy

    This is not a retreat...

    Spencer Hakimian
    @SpencerHakimian
    ·
    6m
    *LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.

    🤣🤣🤣
    Lol wtf. This has got to be the most stupid policy I've ever seen. What's the endgame here, lock out foreign car makers from the US market so that the likes of GM and Ford have a duopoly?
    And how are you going to attract investment from the likes of TSMC if you are saying "well we might just tariff what you make here if we feel like it"?
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs

    He is going to scrap his previous policy

    This is not a retreat...

    Spencer Hakimian
    @SpencerHakimian
    ·
    6m
    *LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.

    🤣🤣🤣
    Lol wtf. This has got to be the most stupid policy I've ever seen. What's the endgame here, lock out foreign car makers from the US market so that the likes of GM and Ford have a duopoly?
    And how are you going to attract investment from the likes of TSMC if you are saying "well we might just tariff what you make here if we feel like it"?
    Investment by TSMC or otherwise is irrelevant.

    It's all about national output. Widgets, Ideas, whatever. Stuff. We need to make the most commercially viable stuff. We need to make it now and I want to see evidence of doing so here. (Withnail..)

  • eekeek Posts: 29,789
    Some of you may appreciate this.

    Trump is just an Hallucinating AI made human

    https://www.techdirt.com/2025/04/29/the-hallucinating-chatgpt-presidency/
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,399
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs

    He is going to scrap his previous policy

    This is not a retreat...

    Spencer Hakimian
    @SpencerHakimian
    ·
    6m
    *LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.

    🤣🤣🤣
    Lol wtf. This has got to be the most stupid policy I've ever seen. What's the endgame here, lock out foreign car makers from the US market so that the likes of GM and Ford have a duopoly?
    And how are you going to attract investment from the likes of TSMC if you are saying "well we might just tariff what you make here if we feel like it"?
    Yeah it's completely mental. I don't understand this thinking at all, propping up failing US car companies by effectively blocking foreign brands just seems like a step into the dark for the US economy. There's a tiny kernel of logic behind tariffs to bring back manufacturing, but this makes less than zero sense. Foreign companies will quietly freeze investment and redirect to Mexico, why bother with a higher US cost structure when you get the same tariffs from low cost Mexico anyway?
    The thinking (such as it is) is "I like tariffs". Imagine that said in the same voice Waynetta Slob used to say "I'm having a fag."

    The tariffs aren't a means to an end, they are an end in themselves.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,789
    edited April 29

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs

    He is going to scrap his previous policy

    This is not a retreat...

    Spencer Hakimian
    @SpencerHakimian
    ·
    6m
    *LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.

    🤣🤣🤣
    Lol wtf. This has got to be the most stupid policy I've ever seen. What's the endgame here, lock out foreign car makers from the US market so that the likes of GM and Ford have a duopoly?
    Trumps issue is that he sees Mercedes in New York but not GM in Paris or Frankfurt. So Mercedes building in the US doesn't fix it for him. It has nothing to do with economics as understood by the rest of the world.
    GM used to sell a lot of cars across Europe - but the brand was Opal or Vauxhall depending on where you looked.

    Likewise Ford used to sell a lot of cars for decades the Fiesta was the top selling car in the UK and I think the Puma is close to the position now.

    But all those cars were models explicitly built for the overseas market because American cars are designed for american roads and are just too big for the rest of the world.

    The issue is that Trump is an idiot surrounded by idiots who want to keep the chief idiot happy.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,543
    OK.

    The Lutnick thing is not *quite* as stupid as it appears. What is happening is that US automakers (i.e. Ford, GM, Tesla) won't be subject to tariffs on imported car parts. While Mercedes Benz will be.

    It's basically just a massive subsidy for US automakers.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 953
    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs

    He is going to scrap his previous policy

    This is not a retreat...

    Spencer Hakimian
    @SpencerHakimian
    ·
    6m
    *LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.

    🤣🤣🤣
    Lol wtf. This has got to be the most stupid policy I've ever seen. What's the endgame here, lock out foreign car makers from the US market so that the likes of GM and Ford have a duopoly?
    Trumps issue is that he sees Mercedes in New York but not GM in Paris or Frankfurt. So Mercedes building in the US doesn't fix it for him. It has nothing to do with economics as understood by the rest of the world.
    GM used to sell a lot of cars across Europe - but the brand was Opal or Vauxhall depending on where you looked.

    Likewise Ford used to sell a lot of cars for decades the Fiesta was the top selling car in the UK and I think the Puma is close to the position now.

    But all those cars were models explicitly built for the overseas market because American cars are designed for american roads and are just too big for the rest of the world.

    The issue is that Trump is an idiot surrounded by idiots who want to keep the chief idiot happy.
    The people that ran Ford and Vauxhall were also idiots sadly. When they started to lose market share they cut their european engineering divisions. The same notion that they could sell US cars in Europe.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,382

    Scott_xP said:

    The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs

    He is going to scrap his previous policy

    This is not a retreat...

    Spencer Hakimian
    @SpencerHakimian
    ·
    6m
    *LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.

    🤣🤣🤣
    Now that is properly A grade bonkers.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,496
    rcs1000 said:

    OK.

    The Lutnick thing is not *quite* as stupid as it appears. What is happening is that US automakers (i.e. Ford, GM, Tesla) won't be subject to tariffs on imported car parts. While Mercedes Benz will be.

    It's basically just a massive subsidy for US automakers.

    Lutnick (who I've met) strikes me as the sort of person that'll be baffled as to where he is. He's an awful choice, but he will really work at not being so awful.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,729

    Scott_xP said:

    The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs

    He is going to scrap his previous policy

    This is not a retreat...

    Spencer Hakimian
    @SpencerHakimian
    ·
    6m
    *LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.

    🤣🤣🤣
    I've given myself an aneurysm trying to make sense of this policy.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,316
    I’m not convinced even Trump knows what he’s doing it all for now, other than to get more attention.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 2,015
    Omnium said:

    rcs1000 said:

    OK.

    The Lutnick thing is not *quite* as stupid as it appears. What is happening is that US automakers (i.e. Ford, GM, Tesla) won't be subject to tariffs on imported car parts. While Mercedes Benz will be.

    It's basically just a massive subsidy for US automakers.

    Lutnick (who I've met) strikes me as the sort of person that'll be baffled as to where he is. He's an awful choice, but he will really work at not being so awful.
    He looks completely insane on TV. Though that maybe because you simply have to act that way in the court of the mad king.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,950
    rcs1000 said:

    OK.

    The Lutnick thing is not *quite* as stupid as it appears. What is happening is that US automakers (i.e. Ford, GM, Tesla) won't be subject to tariffs on imported car parts. While Mercedes Benz will be.

    It's basically just a massive subsidy for US automakers.

    One of Trump’s problems is that he’s mentally stuck in his heyday. The 1980s-90s. He’s like one of those whining old geezers - you know the sort, we get them on here - “music was better in my day, back in the [insert decade of his/her teens and 20s]”

    Trump is stuck in about 1987 or 1995 when America was economically hegemonic and really could order the world around. He’s probably tried to adapt to the new order but deep down, nah

    Hence his foreign policy which basically consists of him shouting at other countries and expecting them to obey. And an economic policy which makes sense if America is 35% of world GDP and China isn’t a deadly rival which can ride out any American tantrums - indeed benefit from them
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,896
    Andy_JS said:

    kinabalu said:

    Well you have to feel for Poilievre. Three months ago he's nailed on to be PM of Canada. Now he not only isn't, he's lost his seat. Politics is a rough old game.

    And none of it was his fault.
    Yes and No. Poilievre is an aggressive attack dog politician who has never run anything. I suspect he would be found wanting as prime minister. It was his misfortune to be found out BEFORE being elected.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,789
    edited April 29

    Scott_xP said:

    The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs

    He is going to scrap his previous policy

    This is not a retreat...

    Spencer Hakimian
    @SpencerHakimian
    ·
    6m
    *LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.

    🤣🤣🤣
    I've given myself an aneurysm trying to make sense of this policy.
    I wonder how quickly Mercedes, BMW and co close their US factories - if there is zero advantage building cars in the US they may as well build the few cars they sell to the USA in Germany where the factories aren't running at capacity.

    At very first glance I could see that the idea had merit in helping US car manufacturers but it only took 30 seconds for common sense to make the serious flaws obvious.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,270
    Scott_xP said:

    Donny phoned Bezos this morning when the story broke

    Amazon then released a statement saying they had no plans to show tariff costs on their website

    This Donny, he wouldn't by any chance be Donny from NASA which pays for Jeff's big rockets?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,316
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    OK.

    The Lutnick thing is not *quite* as stupid as it appears. What is happening is that US automakers (i.e. Ford, GM, Tesla) won't be subject to tariffs on imported car parts. While Mercedes Benz will be.

    It's basically just a massive subsidy for US automakers.

    One of Trump’s problems is that he’s mentally stuck in his heyday. The 1980s-90s. He’s like one of those whining old geezers - you know the sort, we get them on here - “music was better in my day, back in the [insert decade of his/her teens and 20s]”

    Trump is stuck in about 1987 or 1995 when America was economically hegemonic and really could order the world around. He’s probably tried to adapt to the new order but deep down, nah

    Hence his foreign policy which basically consists of him shouting at other countries and expecting them to obey. And an economic policy which makes sense if America is 35% of world GDP and China isn’t a deadly rival which can ride out any American tantrums - indeed benefit from them
    America is also much better at persuading people when people believed they could rely on the US government to provide an economic, political and military safety net. None of which any of us really believe anymore.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,355
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs

    He is going to scrap his previous policy

    This is not a retreat...

    Spencer Hakimian
    @SpencerHakimian
    ·
    6m
    *LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.

    🤣🤣🤣
    Lol wtf. This has got to be the most stupid policy I've ever seen. What's the endgame here, lock out foreign car makers from the US market so that the likes of GM and Ford have a duopoly?
    And how are you going to attract investment from the likes of TSMC if you are saying "well we might just tariff what you make here if we feel like it"?
    Some developing countries require foreign investors to make a joint venture with a local company, with the local company owning a majority share. Perhaps this is what Trump is aspiring to, and is just confused, the senile racist shithead.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,207

    I think Mark Carney has to resign now, I've seen footage of him 'dancing' last night.

    https://x.com/sot6ixtv/status/1917205166731694439


    He was interviewed by Faisal, he commented that Mario Cumo said you campaign in poetry and govern in prose. Well, said Mark Carney, I campaigned in prose and will govern, in...technospeak maybe.

    He is extremely bright, articulate, got a sense of humour and a clear vision of how the world works. I am frankly jealous of Canada, whatever his dancing is like.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,896

    I’m far from convinced (as some seem to be) that the Canadian result points to what will happen to Reform at the next GE (or beforehand).

    The Canadian situation was brought about by a very particular set of events that were immediate in the minds of voters. Canada is also much more badly hit by Trump’s trade policies and his general unhinged-ness, being next door. The Liberals also did an exceptionally well-timed switcheroo at the top.

    We have had a lot of predictions that Trump’s antics would damage Reform. As of today, their poll rating is holding up and they will take a load of council seats on Thursday, and potentially win a Westminster by election. I could be persuaded that Trump might be a brake on them expanding their position further, but we don’t have any real evidence of that yet.

    Yup. I don't assume people who self-indulgently voted for Brexit would not self-indulgently vote for the man most responsible for it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,950
    OK London. I haven’t seen you for six weeks

    Impress me
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,419
    Leon said:

    OK London. I haven’t seen you for six weeks

    Impress me

    The weather is beautiful and London looks very charming and sociable and full of the joys of Spring.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,203
    Wow - just back from a long run. The city is ALIVE. Literally thousands of people heading to the coast, cyclists, runners. Insects galore and the birds have gone quite mad, goldfinches fluttering all around my head. The gorse smells amazing.

    I can't work out if I should go the beach or watch the football.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,207
    Apologies if this has been covered but absolutely horrendous forecasts by the Atlantic Fed for tomorrow morning forecasting -1.5% (or even -2.7% on a different measure). US figures are always inflated by the tendency to give annual rather than quarterly figures but these are really bad numbers. Really bad. Trumpian even.
    https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,203
    edited April 29
    Something is definitely up with the insects. Anyone know what is happening?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,950

    Leon said:

    OK London. I haven’t seen you for six weeks

    Impress me

    The weather is beautiful and London looks very charming and sociable and full of the joys of Spring.
    I’m stuck in a fast black surrounded by about 300,000 arsenal fans near Highbury

    lol. They seem quite happy TBF


  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,316
    FF43 said:

    I’m far from convinced (as some seem to be) that the Canadian result points to what will happen to Reform at the next GE (or beforehand).

    The Canadian situation was brought about by a very particular set of events that were immediate in the minds of voters. Canada is also much more badly hit by Trump’s trade policies and his general unhinged-ness, being next door. The Liberals also did an exceptionally well-timed switcheroo at the top.

    We have had a lot of predictions that Trump’s antics would damage Reform. As of today, their poll rating is holding up and they will take a load of council seats on Thursday, and potentially win a Westminster by election. I could be persuaded that Trump might be a brake on them expanding their position further, but we don’t have any real evidence of that yet.

    Yup. I don't assume people who self-indulgently voted for Brexit would not self-indulgently vote for the man most responsible for it.
    Farage also doesn’t need to make MAGA converts of everyone.

    He just needs enough people to feel let down by Labour and the Tories.

    Reform are a NOTA party.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,399
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    OK.

    The Lutnick thing is not *quite* as stupid as it appears. What is happening is that US automakers (i.e. Ford, GM, Tesla) won't be subject to tariffs on imported car parts. While Mercedes Benz will be.

    It's basically just a massive subsidy for US automakers.

    One of Trump’s problems is that he’s mentally stuck in his heyday. The 1980s-90s. He’s like one of those whining old geezers - you know the sort, we get them on here - “music was better in my day, back in the [insert decade of his/her teens and 20s]”

    Trump is stuck in about 1987 or 1995 when America was economically hegemonic and really could order the world around. He’s probably tried to adapt to the new order but deep down, nah

    Hence his foreign policy which basically consists of him shouting at other countries and expecting them to obey. And an economic policy which makes sense if America is 35% of world GDP and China isn’t a deadly rival which can ride out any American tantrums - indeed benefit from them
    And in some ways, that's fine- most of us have a heyday, and wish things were still like that. It's the human bit of the conservative instinct. To an extent, it's even right. Both Thatcherites pining for the 80s and Red Wallers wishing that their town still had an [whatever] factory like the 70s are keen on Farage for that reason, albeit with contradictory tensions in that coalition.

    The problem comes when it becomes dominant- especially when you have someone like Trump, with massive ego, minimal impulse control and a dodgy understanding of the Good Old Days.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,419
    DavidL said:

    I think Mark Carney has to resign now, I've seen footage of him 'dancing' last night.

    https://x.com/sot6ixtv/status/1917205166731694439


    He was interviewed by Faisal, he commented that Mario Cumo said you campaign in poetry and govern in prose. Well, said Mark Carney, I campaigned in prose and will govern, in...technospeak maybe.

    He is extremely bright, articulate, got a sense of humour and a clear vision of how the world works. I am frankly jealous of Canada, whatever his dancing is like.
    I remember seeing him speaking off the cuff at a British embassy event in DC - the Chancellor of the time had been called back to London last minute to deal with some Brexit related bullshit and Carney stepped in to make some remarks, and was charming, smart and genuinely, properly, funny. An impressive man.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,355
    rcs1000 said:

    OK.

    The Lutnick thing is not *quite* as stupid as it appears. What is happening is that US automakers (i.e. Ford, GM, Tesla) won't be subject to tariffs on imported car parts. While Mercedes Benz will be.

    It's basically just a massive subsidy for US automakers.

    Wasn't Trump saying earlier this month "Mercedes have to move their production to the US", and this month he's saying Mercedes US plants can fuck off?

    And what about next week? Could be anything. Fining people for not buying Teslas?

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,207

    DavidL said:

    I think Mark Carney has to resign now, I've seen footage of him 'dancing' last night.

    https://x.com/sot6ixtv/status/1917205166731694439


    He was interviewed by Faisal, he commented that Mario Cumo said you campaign in poetry and govern in prose. Well, said Mark Carney, I campaigned in prose and will govern, in...technospeak maybe.

    He is extremely bright, articulate, got a sense of humour and a clear vision of how the world works. I am frankly jealous of Canada, whatever his dancing is like.
    I remember seeing him speaking off the cuff at a British embassy event in DC - the Chancellor of the time had been called back to London last minute to deal with some Brexit related bullshit and Carney stepped in to make some remarks, and was charming, smart and genuinely, properly, funny. An impressive man.
    Yet another thing George Osborne was right about.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,756
    Leon said:

    OK London. I haven’t seen you for six weeks

    Impress me

    Coal Drops Yard, behind King's Cross:


  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,441
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Is it just me, or are we now awash with flies, in this warm weather?

    All manner of stuff is out. Not just flies, but hoverflies, butterflies - and just seen a black oil beetle. The moths have been active the last few nights, with some of the bigger beasts waking up. I expect the cockchafers* will be out very shortly.

    *mentioned solely so that TSE can have a snigger...
    I did a 44km bike ride on Sunday, and forgot my glasses. I did not get a single fly in my eye. This morning I did a 24km ride with my sunglasses on, and I got two insects in my eye within the first kilometre...

    As as aside, I spent the day in Cambridge yesterday doing chores (*), and I saw my first electric tandem bike. Then, an hour later, I saw a different type of tandem bike, also electric. You wait years for an electric tandem, then two come along at once!

    (*) A codeword for enjoying the sunshine.
    After my drive back from the IoW at the weekend I had a bug spattered grille and windscreen. I havent seen that for years.

    Insects are BACK!
    That reminds me of the old saw If you go any slower they'll be mashing on the back.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,270
    DavidL said:

    I think Mark Carney has to resign now, I've seen footage of him 'dancing' last night.

    https://x.com/sot6ixtv/status/1917205166731694439


    He was interviewed by Faisal, he commented that Mario Cumo said you campaign in poetry and govern in prose. Well, said Mark Carney, I campaigned in prose and will govern, in...technospeak maybe.

    He is extremely bright, articulate, got a sense of humour and a clear vision of how the world works. I am frankly jealous of Canada, whatever his dancing is like.
    Bill Clinton used the same quote from Mario Cuomo.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,950

    Leon said:

    OK London. I haven’t seen you for six weeks

    Impress me

    Coal Drops Yard, behind King's Cross:


    Looks worryingly empty

    I love Coal Drops Yard - it’s one of the best bits of the magnificent King’s X development. But it’s just not working. It’s too inaccessible and too posh

    They need to drastically rethink it and provide some radical new way to there - and reason to go there
  • MJWMJW Posts: 2,015
    FF43 said:

    I’m far from convinced (as some seem to be) that the Canadian result points to what will happen to Reform at the next GE (or beforehand).

    The Canadian situation was brought about by a very particular set of events that were immediate in the minds of voters. Canada is also much more badly hit by Trump’s trade policies and his general unhinged-ness, being next door. The Liberals also did an exceptionally well-timed switcheroo at the top.

    We have had a lot of predictions that Trump’s antics would damage Reform. As of today, their poll rating is holding up and they will take a load of council seats on Thursday, and potentially win a Westminster by election. I could be persuaded that Trump might be a brake on them expanding their position further, but we don’t have any real evidence of that yet.

    Yup. I don't assume people who self-indulgently voted for Brexit would not self-indulgently vote for the man most responsible for it.
    Given the next election isn't until till 2029 you'd be a fool to use an election in another country as in any way predictive.

    But if we're reading anything into it on one data point, it's that the story wasn't a collapse in the Conservative vote but a consolidation around their opponents. Being seen as a bit Trumpy might not damage you particularly but it seems to heavily motivate your opponents into forming a coherent vote against.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,307
    edited April 29

    FF43 said:

    I’m far from convinced (as some seem to be) that the Canadian result points to what will happen to Reform at the next GE (or beforehand).

    The Canadian situation was brought about by a very particular set of events that were immediate in the minds of voters. Canada is also much more badly hit by Trump’s trade policies and his general unhinged-ness, being next door. The Liberals also did an exceptionally well-timed switcheroo at the top.

    We have had a lot of predictions that Trump’s antics would damage Reform. As of today, their poll rating is holding up and they will take a load of council seats on Thursday, and potentially win a Westminster by election. I could be persuaded that Trump might be a brake on them expanding their position further, but we don’t have any real evidence of that yet.

    Yup. I don't assume people who self-indulgently voted for Brexit would not self-indulgently vote for the man most responsible for it.
    Farage also doesn’t need to make MAGA converts of everyone.

    He just needs enough people to feel let down by Labour and the Tories.

    Reform are a NOTA party.
    They don't have a monopoly on the NOTA vote though, do they? Lib Dems regained some of that turf in 2024 having lost it through involvement in the Coalition (making them a OOTA vote for a time). The Greens and Scots/Welsh nationalists also have NOTA appeal.

    You can argue in a sense RefUK have greater NOTA appeal - they got more votes than any of those at the last General Election, and are polling higher now. But here's the rub... all those other NOTA parties were more efficient at turning votes into seats in 2024 - the Lib Dems by MILES. That's because they have fewer perceived negatives for NOTA voters (a big negative for Farage being the MAGA connection, which is highly unpopular in the UK).
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,419
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I think Mark Carney has to resign now, I've seen footage of him 'dancing' last night.

    https://x.com/sot6ixtv/status/1917205166731694439


    He was interviewed by Faisal, he commented that Mario Cumo said you campaign in poetry and govern in prose. Well, said Mark Carney, I campaigned in prose and will govern, in...technospeak maybe.

    He is extremely bright, articulate, got a sense of humour and a clear vision of how the world works. I am frankly jealous of Canada, whatever his dancing is like.
    I remember seeing him speaking off the cuff at a British embassy event in DC - the Chancellor of the time had been called back to London last minute to deal with some Brexit related bullshit and Carney stepped in to make some remarks, and was charming, smart and genuinely, properly, funny. An impressive man.
    Yet another thing George Osborne was right about.
    That's a short list. Brexit, Carney, the OBR... er, that's it.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,856
    MJW said:

    Omnium said:

    rcs1000 said:

    OK.

    The Lutnick thing is not *quite* as stupid as it appears. What is happening is that US automakers (i.e. Ford, GM, Tesla) won't be subject to tariffs on imported car parts. While Mercedes Benz will be.

    It's basically just a massive subsidy for US automakers.

    Lutnick (who I've met) strikes me as the sort of person that'll be baffled as to where he is. He's an awful choice, but he will really work at not being so awful.
    He looks completely insane on TV. Though that maybe because you simply have to act that way in the court of the mad king.
    There's a touch of Chauncy Gardiner about all this.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,712
    rcs1000 said:

    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs

    He is going to scrap his previous policy

    This is not a retreat...

    Spencer Hakimian
    @SpencerHakimian
    ·
    6m
    *LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.

    🤣🤣🤣
    Still trying to wrap my head around that.
    I think I give up.
    "Don't think you can just come over here and build a car factory and bring manufacturing jobs back to the heartland. That's not the point of this tariff policy at all."
    Why should they get tariff relief if it’s a screwdriver facility largely reliant on parts from overseas. 🤷‍♂️

    Tariff relief is coming in for car makers based on the domestic content.
    You pay tariffs on imported car parts already.
    Yeah, I know that.

    https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1917254411962954135?s=61

    This is what they are saying.

    ‘US Commerce Secretary Lutnick says that all cars finished with 85% domestic content will have zero auto tariffs. US carmakers will receive 15% offset for value of vehicles ageists parts imports‘

    So get to 85% domestic content then no tariffs for all car manufacturers.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,905

    DavidL said:

    I think Mark Carney has to resign now, I've seen footage of him 'dancing' last night.

    https://x.com/sot6ixtv/status/1917205166731694439


    He was interviewed by Faisal, he commented that Mario Cumo said you campaign in poetry and govern in prose. Well, said Mark Carney, I campaigned in prose and will govern, in...technospeak maybe.

    He is extremely bright, articulate, got a sense of humour and a clear vision of how the world works. I am frankly jealous of Canada, whatever his dancing is like.
    I remember seeing him speaking off the cuff at a British embassy event in DC - the Chancellor of the time had been called back to London last minute to deal with some Brexit related bullshit and Carney stepped in to make some remarks, and was charming, smart and genuinely, properly, funny. An impressive man.
    Sadly his tenure at the Bank of England was marked by political granstanding and (far more importantly) ruinous money printing.

    Glad you found him so charming though - makes all the rampant inflation worthwhile somehow doesn't it?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,879
    Leon said:

    OK London. I haven’t seen you for six weeks

    Impress me

    Temperatures won't be far off 30C on Thursday and Primrose will look lovely.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,355
    Won't the end effect (apart from nobody being able to plan any kind of business in the US) be that in the US "American" cars will be full of foreign parts and "foreign" cars will be made of American parts?

    Though it's unlikely the latest policy will last more than a couple of weeks.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,905
    edited April 29

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I think Mark Carney has to resign now, I've seen footage of him 'dancing' last night.

    https://x.com/sot6ixtv/status/1917205166731694439


    He was interviewed by Faisal, he commented that Mario Cumo said you campaign in poetry and govern in prose. Well, said Mark Carney, I campaigned in prose and will govern, in...technospeak maybe.

    He is extremely bright, articulate, got a sense of humour and a clear vision of how the world works. I am frankly jealous of Canada, whatever his dancing is like.
    I remember seeing him speaking off the cuff at a British embassy event in DC - the Chancellor of the time had been called back to London last minute to deal with some Brexit related bullshit and Carney stepped in to make some remarks, and was charming, smart and genuinely, properly, funny. An impressive man.
    Yet another thing George Osborne was right about.
    That's a short list. Brexit, Carney, the OBR... er, that's it.
    When does the list start?
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,307
    edited April 29

    DavidL said:

    I think Mark Carney has to resign now, I've seen footage of him 'dancing' last night.

    https://x.com/sot6ixtv/status/1917205166731694439


    He was interviewed by Faisal, he commented that Mario Cumo said you campaign in poetry and govern in prose. Well, said Mark Carney, I campaigned in prose and will govern, in...technospeak maybe.

    He is extremely bright, articulate, got a sense of humour and a clear vision of how the world works. I am frankly jealous of Canada, whatever his dancing is like.
    I remember seeing him speaking off the cuff at a British embassy event in DC - the Chancellor of the time had been called back to London last minute to deal with some Brexit related bullshit and Carney stepped in to make some remarks, and was charming, smart and genuinely, properly, funny. An impressive man.
    Sadly his tenure at the Bank of England was marked by political granstanding and (far more importantly) ruinous money printing.

    Glad you found him so charming though - makes all the rampant inflation worthwhile somehow doesn't it?
    Hi Liz, hope you're keeping well.

    As a minor fact check, and without defending every aspect of Carney's record, CPI was at 1.5% when he left the Bank of England.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,582
    Leon said:

    Bessant looks like a man about to walk to me.

    The whole Trump admin has the stench of Hitler/Mussolini about it.
    Trump 2.0 is way less impressive than Hitler or Mussolini

    Hitler did conquer nearly all of Europe and came quite close to winning a world war. Mussolini did something cool with trains, I forget exactly what

    Eg what was Trump thinking with that *tweet* last night banging on about Canada as the 51st state AGAIN just before the election. What did it benefit him!?

    Either he’s a Russian agent sent to roil the West or he is a piece of performance art or he is now actually
    insane and there is no one in his inner circle able or willing to say Get a grip

    Hitler was a model of calm good sense in contrast. At least until ~1942
    I think I might entirely forgive Trump if he outs himself as a Dadaist.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,905

    DavidL said:

    I think Mark Carney has to resign now, I've seen footage of him 'dancing' last night.

    https://x.com/sot6ixtv/status/1917205166731694439


    He was interviewed by Faisal, he commented that Mario Cumo said you campaign in poetry and govern in prose. Well, said Mark Carney, I campaigned in prose and will govern, in...technospeak maybe.

    He is extremely bright, articulate, got a sense of humour and a clear vision of how the world works. I am frankly jealous of Canada, whatever his dancing is like.
    I remember seeing him speaking off the cuff at a British embassy event in DC - the Chancellor of the time had been called back to London last minute to deal with some Brexit related bullshit and Carney stepped in to make some remarks, and was charming, smart and genuinely, properly, funny. An impressive man.
    Sadly his tenure at the Bank of England was marked by political granstanding and (far more importantly) ruinous money printing.

    Glad you found him so charming though - makes all the rampant inflation worthwhile somehow doesn't it?
    Hi Liz, hope you're keeping well.
    With much respect and affection for the lady, I don't think she's as funny as me.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,919
    rcs1000 said:

    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs

    He is going to scrap his previous policy

    This is not a retreat...

    Spencer Hakimian
    @SpencerHakimian
    ·
    6m
    *LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.

    🤣🤣🤣
    Still trying to wrap my head around that.
    I think I give up.
    "Don't think you can just come over here and build a car factory and bring manufacturing jobs back to the heartland. That's not the point of this tariff policy at all."
    Why should they get tariff relief if it’s a screwdriver facility largely reliant on parts from overseas. 🤷‍♂️

    Tariff relief is coming in for car makers based on the domestic content.
    You pay tariffs on imported car parts already.
    I love the way the administration announces its latest batshit policy, and a load of people crop up trying to rationalise it.
    Rather than saying, "that's batshit".
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,712
    rcs1000 said:

    OK.

    The Lutnick thing is not *quite* as stupid as it appears. What is happening is that US automakers (i.e. Ford, GM, Tesla) won't be subject to tariffs on imported car parts. While Mercedes Benz will be.

    It's basically just a massive subsidy for US automakers.

    It is not ‘how it appears’ it’s how some people choose to present it here without actually looking at the detail behind it. Just cut and paste some crap off Twitter from someone with an agenda like Krassenstein or Rupar, and present it as fact and people soak it up like a sponge as it reflects their prejudices.

    Yes, it is a massive subsidy but it is also showing that they are starting to roll back on the tariffs, mitigating the effects, and that’s not a bad thing.
  • DavidL said:

    I think Mark Carney has to resign now, I've seen footage of him 'dancing' last night.

    https://x.com/sot6ixtv/status/1917205166731694439


    He was interviewed by Faisal, he commented that Mario Cumo said you campaign in poetry and govern in prose. Well, said Mark Carney, I campaigned in prose and will govern, in...technospeak maybe.

    He is extremely bright, articulate, got a sense of humour and a clear vision of how the world works. I am frankly jealous of Canada, whatever his dancing is like.
    I remember seeing him speaking off the cuff at a British embassy event in DC - the Chancellor of the time had been called back to London last minute to deal with some Brexit related bullshit and Carney stepped in to make some remarks, and was charming, smart and genuinely, properly, funny. An impressive man.
    Sadly his tenure at the Bank of England was marked by political granstanding and (far more importantly) ruinous money printing.

    Glad you found him so charming though - makes all the rampant inflation worthwhile somehow doesn't it?
    Hi Liz, hope you're keeping well.
    With much respect and affection for the lady, I don't think she's as funny as me.
    Oh, I think the rest of us find her FAR funnier.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,905

    DavidL said:

    I think Mark Carney has to resign now, I've seen footage of him 'dancing' last night.

    https://x.com/sot6ixtv/status/1917205166731694439


    He was interviewed by Faisal, he commented that Mario Cumo said you campaign in poetry and govern in prose. Well, said Mark Carney, I campaigned in prose and will govern, in...technospeak maybe.

    He is extremely bright, articulate, got a sense of humour and a clear vision of how the world works. I am frankly jealous of Canada, whatever his dancing is like.
    I remember seeing him speaking off the cuff at a British embassy event in DC - the Chancellor of the time had been called back to London last minute to deal with some Brexit related bullshit and Carney stepped in to make some remarks, and was charming, smart and genuinely, properly, funny. An impressive man.
    Sadly his tenure at the Bank of England was marked by political granstanding and (far more importantly) ruinous money printing.

    Glad you found him so charming though - makes all the rampant inflation worthwhile somehow doesn't it?
    Hi Liz, hope you're keeping well.
    With much respect and affection for the lady, I don't think she's as funny as me.
    Oh, I think the rest of us find her FAR funnier.
    I'm sure she's sobbing all the way to the bank.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,419
    DavidL said:

    Apologies if this has been covered but absolutely horrendous forecasts by the Atlantic Fed for tomorrow morning forecasting -1.5% (or even -2.7% on a different measure). US figures are always inflated by the tendency to give annual rather than quarterly figures but these are really bad numbers. Really bad. Trumpian even.
    https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

    Yes my Q1 GDP tracker is similar. We'll get the first proper estimate from the BEA on Thursday. But there's some funny stuff going on with imports (tariff front-running, basically), even adjusting for an additional distortion related to gold flows. Imports are subtracted from the other items to estimate GDP, so the imports surge accounts for much of the likely weakness in the headline number. In theory the imports have an offset in consumption spending, fixed investment or a temporary build in inventories, but it looks like this isn't showing up in the data yet. So the weakness is probably more a reflection of imperfect measurement as much as anything else.
    There is also some evidence for residual seasonality biasing the Q1 numbers down since Covid. In other words, you should take Q1 weakness with a pinch of salt. On the other hand, Q2 and Q3 may well be properly, legitimately, terrible, because Trump has decided to blow up the economy.
  • DavidL said:

    I think Mark Carney has to resign now, I've seen footage of him 'dancing' last night.

    https://x.com/sot6ixtv/status/1917205166731694439


    He was interviewed by Faisal, he commented that Mario Cumo said you campaign in poetry and govern in prose. Well, said Mark Carney, I campaigned in prose and will govern, in...technospeak maybe.

    He is extremely bright, articulate, got a sense of humour and a clear vision of how the world works. I am frankly jealous of Canada, whatever his dancing is like.
    I remember seeing him speaking off the cuff at a British embassy event in DC - the Chancellor of the time had been called back to London last minute to deal with some Brexit related bullshit and Carney stepped in to make some remarks, and was charming, smart and genuinely, properly, funny. An impressive man.
    Sadly his tenure at the Bank of England was marked by political granstanding and (far more importantly) ruinous money printing.

    Glad you found him so charming though - makes all the rampant inflation worthwhile somehow doesn't it?
    Hi Liz, hope you're keeping well.
    With much respect and affection for the lady, I don't think she's as funny as me.
    Oh, I think the rest of us find her FAR funnier.
    I'm sure she's sobbing all the way to the bank.
    I'm sure she scrapes a living, but people don't laugh at her because she's struggling to buy butter.

    The amusement comes from the spectacular failure of her short time in office, from her failure to have taken any meaningful lessons from it, and from her increasingly desperate and doomed attempts to regain the relevance and influence she ever so briefly enjoyed.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,919

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The Mad King is about to announce his new policy on auto tariffs

    He is going to scrap his previous policy

    This is not a retreat...

    Spencer Hakimian
    @SpencerHakimian
    ·
    6m
    *LUTNICK: TARIFF WILL APPLY TO FOREIGN CAR MAKERS BUILDING CARS IN U.S.

    🤣🤣🤣
    Lol wtf. This has got to be the most stupid policy I've ever seen. What's the endgame here, lock out foreign car makers from the US market so that the likes of GM and Ford have a duopoly?
    And how are you going to attract investment from the likes of TSMC if you are saying "well we might just tariff what you make here if we feel like it"?
    Yeah it's completely mental. I don't understand this thinking at all, propping up failing US car companies by effectively blocking foreign brands just seems like a step into the dark for the US economy. There's a tiny kernel of logic behind tariffs to bring back manufacturing, but this makes less than zero sense. Foreign companies will quietly freeze investment and redirect to Mexico, why bother with a higher US cost structure when you get the same tariffs from low cost Mexico anyway?
    The thinking (such as it is) is "I like tariffs". Imagine that said in the same voice Waynetta Slob used to say "I'm having a fag."

    The tariffs aren't a means to an end, they are an end in themselves.
    Except they're not.
    They change every week or so.
Sign In or Register to comment.