An update on my 14/1 bet – politicalbetting.com
A truly stunning result for the Canadian Liberal Party. Mark Carney (with a lot of help from Donald Trump) has secured one of the greatest comebacks in electoral history. Liberals are up seats but so are the Conservatives. NDP rout. Libs likely a minority and will have to work with others.
Comments
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Let us not forget the Canadian Conservatives are up 9% on the last Canadian election and have also gained seats too.
It is not so much being close to Trump has damaged them, Poilievre was not Maga enough for Trump anyway, more the threat of Trump's tariffs and annexation talk has united the Canadian left and liberals behind the Liberal Party. Hence the collapse in the NDP vote via tactical votes for Carney's Liberals0 -
Spoken like a true Corbynite in 2017.HYUFD said:Let us not forget the Canadian Conservatives are up 9% on the last Canadian election and have also gained seats too.
It is not so much being close to Trump has damaged them, Poilievre was not Maga enough for Trump anyway, more the threat of Trump's tariffs and annexation talk has united the Canadian left and liberals behind the Liberal Party. Hence the collapse in the NDP vote via tactical votes for Carney's Liberals10 -
As I posted on the last thread this Canadian election result is also a big boost for NiMBYs as well as Trump haters.
'Poilievre was also promising lots of new homes and to build far more affordable homes especially for young Canadians.
So his defeat may boost Canadian NIMBYs and that could also see a knock on boost to UK NIMBYs.
The UK Liberal Democrats are even more NIMBY than their Canadian Liberal cousins and will be hoping for gains in the local elections in England this week to match the Canadian Liberals win'0 -
Carleton update. 19 polling stations left to report. Poilievre still trails by over 1,800 votes.
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In ‘Look what you might have won Canada’ news, Trump is apparently holding a 100 days celebration rally in Michigan today. Is there a market on how many lies he’ll tell?0
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Bruce Fanjoy now at 50.1% with 249/266 reported.0
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I think he's done itvik said:Bruce Fanjoy now at 50.1% with 249/266 reported.
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Corbyn did gain 30 seats in 2017 and nearly became PM but was beaten by tactical votes against him as the Canadian Liberals have won it seems via tactical anti Trump votesTheScreamingEagles said:
Spoken like a true Corbynite in 2017.HYUFD said:Let us not forget the Canadian Conservatives are up 9% on the last Canadian election and have also gained seats too.
It is not so much being close to Trump has damaged them, Poilievre was not Maga enough for Trump anyway, more the threat of Trump's tariffs and annexation talk has united the Canadian left and liberals behind the Liberal Party. Hence the collapse in the NDP vote via tactical votes for Carney's Liberals0 -
How long before Trump calls Poilievre a loser ?
Ignoring of course that his constant anti-Canadian tirades helped facilitate that .
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Former Poliviere staffer writes on results:
https://unherd.com/newsroom/canadas-liberals-can-thank-trump-for-election-win/1 -
Well done 14/1ers.4
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I suspect that Corbyn in 2017 benefited from a last-ditch attempt by Remainers to somehow block Brexit.HYUFD said:
Corbyn did gain 30 seats in 2017 and nearly became PM but was beaten by tactical votes against him as the Canadian Liberals have won it seems via tactical anti Trump votesTheScreamingEagles said:
Spoken like a true Corbynite in 2017.HYUFD said:Let us not forget the Canadian Conservatives are up 9% on the last Canadian election and have also gained seats too.
It is not so much being close to Trump has damaged them, Poilievre was not Maga enough for Trump anyway, more the threat of Trump's tariffs and annexation talk has united the Canadian left and liberals behind the Liberal Party. Hence the collapse in the NDP vote via tactical votes for Carney's Liberals
They were willing to swallow Corbyn's extremism if it somehow meant a very soft Brexit, or even possibly no Brexit. And yes, I understand that Corbyn was also pro-Brexit, but the option was either Tories or Labour, and Labour was a lot less pro-Brexit than the Tories.
I think it wasn't a vote "for" Corbyn's extremist leftism, but a vote "against" extremist Brexitism.1 -
Clearly Trudeau was massively unpopular and the twin effect of switching to Carney and the Trump mayhem has combined to boost the Liberal support. From what I can see the Conservatives have done well but the circumstances have allowed the Liberals to squeak through.
There are dangers for both parties, the danger for Conservatives in Canada is overanalysing the situation. Poilievre was clearly on to something but if the party decides his approach needs sweeping change it could retard efforts for the next election. The danger for the Liberals is that squeezing out a species of victory in unique circumstances will leave them highly vulnerable to a very rapid backlash if the electorate see stuff happening that prompts some buyers remorse.3 -
They call him pathetic Poilievre, everybody says it...nico67 said:How long before Trump calls Poilievre a loser ?
Ignoring of course that his constant anti-Canadian tirades helped facilitate that .1 -
Trump can't pronounce Poilievre. He'll probably go with "pathetic Pierre".FrancisUrquhart said:
They call him pathetic Poilievre, everybody says it...nico67 said:How long before Trump calls Poilievre a loser ?
Ignoring of course that his constant anti-Canadian tirades helped facilitate that .0 -
I wonder if this is Canada's 1992.ToryJim said:Clearly Trudeau was massively unpopular and the twin effect of switching to Carney and the Trump mayhem has combined to boost the Liberal support. From what I can see the Conservatives have done well but the circumstances have allowed the Liberals to squeak through.
There are dangers for both parties, the danger for Conservatives in Canada is overanalysing the situation. Poilievre was clearly on to something but if the party decides his approach needs sweeping change it could retard efforts for the next election. The danger for the Liberals is that squeezing out a species of victory in unique circumstances will leave them highly vulnerable to a very rapid backlash if the electorate see stuff happening that prompts some buyers remorse.
Win an election after replacing an unpopular leader/defeating an unpopular LOTO which leads to a shellacking at the following GE.5 -
Heh.
More appropriate what3words fun.
That anti-wheelchair barrier I was complaining about the other day has a political What3Words address:
https://what3words.com/unfair.whips.club2 -
One of Prince Andrew's prized business assets was administered for two years by a company controlled by the controversial millionaire Doug Barrowman, the BBC can reveal.
Pitch@Palace Global remained the prince's company, under his control. But in line with longstanding royal practice, it was owned under the names of other people or companies, acting on his behalf as so-called "nominees".
Documents filed at Companies House show that from 2021, the nominee owner was Knox House Trustees (UK), which was controlled and ultimately owned by Mr Barrowman until 2023.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9vep0p877wo0 -
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The NDP clearly voted tactically in huge numbers , and it could be some PCP thought Poilievre wasn’t in danger of losing his seat .FrancisUrquhart said:
They call him pathetic Poilievre, everybody says it...nico67 said:How long before Trump calls Poilievre a loser ?
Ignoring of course that his constant anti-Canadian tirades helped facilitate that .
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Pitiful PP.vik said:
Trump can't pronounce Poilievre. He'll probably go with "pathetic Pierre".FrancisUrquhart said:
They call him pathetic Poilievre, everybody says it...nico67 said:How long before Trump calls Poilievre a loser ?
Ignoring of course that his constant anti-Canadian tirades helped facilitate that .0 -
Trump won't be in office by the time of the next Canadian election eitherTheScreamingEagles said:
I wonder if this is Canada's 1992.ToryJim said:Clearly Trudeau was massively unpopular and the twin effect of switching to Carney and the Trump mayhem has combined to boost the Liberal support. From what I can see the Conservatives have done well but the circumstances have allowed the Liberals to squeak through.
There are dangers for both parties, the danger for Conservatives in Canada is overanalysing the situation. Poilievre was clearly on to something but if the party decides his approach needs sweeping change it could retard efforts for the next election. The danger for the Liberals is that squeezing out a species of victory in unique circumstances will leave them highly vulnerable to a very rapid backlash if the electorate see stuff happening that prompts some buyers remorse.
Win an election after replacing an unpopular leader/defeating an unpopular LOTO which leads to a shellacking at the following GE.0 -
It depends on the Conservatives.TheScreamingEagles said:
I wonder if this is Canada's 1992.ToryJim said:Clearly Trudeau was massively unpopular and the twin effect of switching to Carney and the Trump mayhem has combined to boost the Liberal support. From what I can see the Conservatives have done well but the circumstances have allowed the Liberals to squeak through.
There are dangers for both parties, the danger for Conservatives in Canada is overanalysing the situation. Poilievre was clearly on to something but if the party decides his approach needs sweeping change it could retard efforts for the next election. The danger for the Liberals is that squeezing out a species of victory in unique circumstances will leave them highly vulnerable to a very rapid backlash if the electorate see stuff happening that prompts some buyers remorse.
Win an election after replacing an unpopular leader/defeating an unpopular LOTO which leads to a shellacking at the following GE.
If they ditch Pierre & Maple MAGAism, and go with a sensible centrist as party leader (who stays far far away from Jordan Peterson), then it'll be a landslide to Conservatives.
If, on the other hand, they become even more extreme right-wing, then it might be another close election.0 -
Drinking champagne could reduce risk of sudden cardiac arrest, study suggests
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/apr/29/drink-champagne-reduce-risk-sudden-cardiac-arrest-study-suggests1 -
The PP GuyNigelb said:
Pitiful PP.vik said:
Trump can't pronounce Poilievre. He'll probably go with "pathetic Pierre".FrancisUrquhart said:
They call him pathetic Poilievre, everybody says it...nico67 said:How long before Trump calls Poilievre a loser ?
Ignoring of course that his constant anti-Canadian tirades helped facilitate that .1 -
Well, if I must.Nigelb said:Drinking champagne could reduce risk of sudden cardiac arrest, study suggests
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/apr/29/drink-champagne-reduce-risk-sudden-cardiac-arrest-study-suggests6 -
Good luck with that.HYUFD said:Let us not forget the Canadian Conservatives are up 9% on the last Canadian election and have also gained seats too.
It is not so much being close to Trump has damaged them, Poilievre was not Maga enough for Trump anyway, more the threat of Trump's tariffs and annexation talk has united the Canadian left and liberals behind the Liberal Party. Hence the collapse in the NDP vote via tactical votes for Carney's Liberals
It’s clearly a rejection of Trump (just look at the polls, prior!); hence why so many minor party supporters were pushed into taking a position.1 -
Oh you sweet innocent child.HYUFD said:
Trump won't be in office by the time of the next Canadian election eitherTheScreamingEagles said:
I wonder if this is Canada's 1992.ToryJim said:Clearly Trudeau was massively unpopular and the twin effect of switching to Carney and the Trump mayhem has combined to boost the Liberal support. From what I can see the Conservatives have done well but the circumstances have allowed the Liberals to squeak through.
There are dangers for both parties, the danger for Conservatives in Canada is overanalysing the situation. Poilievre was clearly on to something but if the party decides his approach needs sweeping change it could retard efforts for the next election. The danger for the Liberals is that squeezing out a species of victory in unique circumstances will leave them highly vulnerable to a very rapid backlash if the electorate see stuff happening that prompts some buyers remorse.
Win an election after replacing an unpopular leader/defeating an unpopular LOTO which leads to a shellacking at the following GE.2 -
By the latest possible date of the next election, no.HYUFD said:
Trump won't be in office by the time of the next Canadian election eitherTheScreamingEagles said:
I wonder if this is Canada's 1992.ToryJim said:Clearly Trudeau was massively unpopular and the twin effect of switching to Carney and the Trump mayhem has combined to boost the Liberal support. From what I can see the Conservatives have done well but the circumstances have allowed the Liberals to squeak through.
There are dangers for both parties, the danger for Conservatives in Canada is overanalysing the situation. Poilievre was clearly on to something but if the party decides his approach needs sweeping change it could retard efforts for the next election. The danger for the Liberals is that squeezing out a species of victory in unique circumstances will leave them highly vulnerable to a very rapid backlash if the electorate see stuff happening that prompts some buyers remorse.
Win an election after replacing an unpopular leader/defeating an unpopular LOTO which leads to a shellacking at the following GE.1 -
Evidently not.
Trump: ‘I run the country and the world’
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5270899-trump-i-run-the-country-and-the-world/
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That was certainly part of it. but there was genuine Corbynmania.vik said:
I suspect that Corbyn in 2017 benefited from a last-ditch attempt by Remainers to somehow block Brexit.HYUFD said:
Corbyn did gain 30 seats in 2017 and nearly became PM but was beaten by tactical votes against him as the Canadian Liberals have won it seems via tactical anti Trump votesTheScreamingEagles said:
Spoken like a true Corbynite in 2017.HYUFD said:Let us not forget the Canadian Conservatives are up 9% on the last Canadian election and have also gained seats too.
It is not so much being close to Trump has damaged them, Poilievre was not Maga enough for Trump anyway, more the threat of Trump's tariffs and annexation talk has united the Canadian left and liberals behind the Liberal Party. Hence the collapse in the NDP vote via tactical votes for Carney's Liberals
They were willing to swallow Corbyn's extremism if it somehow meant a very soft Brexit, or even possibly no Brexit. And yes, I understand that Corbyn was also pro-Brexit, but the option was either Tories or Labour, and Labour was a lot less pro-Brexit than the Tories.
I think it wasn't a vote "for" Corbyn's extremist leftism, but a vote "against" extremist Brexitism.
Corbyns speech at Tranmere Rovers is where it began. and transformed the campaign.0 -
Carleton update. 14 polls left. PP now over 2,000 votes behind.
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John Barrowman might have been more fitting...FrancisUrquhart said:One of Prince Andrew's prized business assets was administered for two years by a company controlled by the controversial millionaire Doug Barrowman, the BBC can reveal.
Pitch@Palace Global remained the prince's company, under his control. But in line with longstanding royal practice, it was owned under the names of other people or companies, acting on his behalf as so-called "nominees".
Documents filed at Companies House show that from 2021, the nominee owner was Knox House Trustees (UK), which was controlled and ultimately owned by Mr Barrowman until 2023.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9vep0p877wo1 -
It was a vote against making any sensible attempt to fix the problem of funding social care for the elderly.vik said:
I suspect that Corbyn in 2017 benefited from a last-ditch attempt by Remainers to somehow block Brexit.HYUFD said:
Corbyn did gain 30 seats in 2017 and nearly became PM but was beaten by tactical votes against him as the Canadian Liberals have won it seems via tactical anti Trump votesTheScreamingEagles said:
Spoken like a true Corbynite in 2017.HYUFD said:Let us not forget the Canadian Conservatives are up 9% on the last Canadian election and have also gained seats too.
It is not so much being close to Trump has damaged them, Poilievre was not Maga enough for Trump anyway, more the threat of Trump's tariffs and annexation talk has united the Canadian left and liberals behind the Liberal Party. Hence the collapse in the NDP vote via tactical votes for Carney's Liberals
They were willing to swallow Corbyn's extremism if it somehow meant a very soft Brexit, or even possibly no Brexit. And yes, I understand that Corbyn was also pro-Brexit, but the option was either Tories or Labour, and Labour was a lot less pro-Brexit than the Tories.
I think it wasn't a vote "for" Corbyn's extremist leftism, but a vote "against" extremist Brexitism.2 -
Seems that Russia doesn't think so as they start stockpiling weapons on the Finnish border.Nigelb said:Evidently not.
Trump: ‘I run the country and the world’
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5270899-trump-i-run-the-country-and-the-world/0 -
Poilievre doesn't seem to have enough fans to bring him joy.Casino_Royale said:Carleton update. 14 polls left. PP now over 2,000 votes behind.
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I hope the Fanboys are experiencing Fanjoy.2
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Now let's see if Labour can pull off the same, with a leadership shift and swing away from Trumpism to keep them in power by defeating an opposition leader who idolises MAGA and the cult of Trump.1
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Do people merely fall for Lib Dem shamelessness or are they actually attracted to it? The later is rather Trumpian...Taz said:1 -
I'd be wary of reading too much from Canada to elsewhere. Canada has a unique rally to the flag effect as Trump is literally threatening Canada with annexation.
That doesn't apply to the UK or Australia.1 -
Depends a bit if there's a Canadian version of Black Wednesday and Blair in the pipeline. But yes, eventually the pendulum insists on swinging.TheScreamingEagles said:
I wonder if this is Canada's 1992.ToryJim said:Clearly Trudeau was massively unpopular and the twin effect of switching to Carney and the Trump mayhem has combined to boost the Liberal support. From what I can see the Conservatives have done well but the circumstances have allowed the Liberals to squeak through.
There are dangers for both parties, the danger for Conservatives in Canada is overanalysing the situation. Poilievre was clearly on to something but if the party decides his approach needs sweeping change it could retard efforts for the next election. The danger for the Liberals is that squeezing out a species of victory in unique circumstances will leave them highly vulnerable to a very rapid backlash if the electorate see stuff happening that prompts some buyers remorse.
Win an election after replacing an unpopular leader/defeating an unpopular LOTO which leads to a shellacking at the following GE.0 -
Wait till you see the results on Friday. Then you'll see that we won't reach Peak LibDems till they become our real Opposition party in 2028 or 2029. And possibly our majority government in 2032Taz said:3 -
A chart for the real gourmet!Taz said:1 -
There were certain ridings where the combined centre left vote would have easily defeated the CPC but there seems to have been a degree of confusion as to who was best placed to beat the CPC .1
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EC projects LDs will be third on Thursday behind the Tories and Reformflanner2 said:
Wait till you see the results on Friday. Then you'll see that we won't reach Peak LibDems till they become our real Opposition party in 2028 or 2029. And possibly our majority government in 2032Taz said:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_lepoll_20250314.html
Note in classic LD barchart fashion that change in poll ratings is over the last 3 months, since the last GE the LDs are only up around 1% while Reform are up about 10%0 -
F1: Undercutters Ep18 looks forward (ahem) to Miami, one of my least favourite tracks. But it was where Norris got his first win, last year. And there's some interesting news about engines in 2026 (Ferrari fans may not like how things seem to be developing):
Podbean: https://undercutters.podbean.com/e/f1-2025-miami-grand-prix-preview-and-predictions/
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/f1-2025-miami-grand-prix-preview-and-predictions/id1786574257?i=1000705370196
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/76DF3M01az3ioIAee1dhil
Amazon: https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/bcfe213b-55fb-408a-a823-dc6693ee9f78/episodes/74fe53d1-3ead-4e95-9025-3375badfe4f4/undercutters---f1-podcast-f1-2025-miami-grand-prix-preview-and-predictions
Transcript: https://morrisf1.blogspot.com/2025/04/f1-2025-miami-grand-prix-preview-and.html1 -
Oh Canada! With Trump and the power of Trump having been defeated, its time to listen to Carney. The previous US-led free trade world "is over". Instead of wazzocking around like Starmer trying to obsequiously crawl to defend this former world order we should ally with our brothers and sisters in Canada in building the new one.7
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The West is still very divided and I am not sure, short of a major war, how it can be fixed.0
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So fail to win a majority like Carney has still failed to do in Canada? That would mean 100 Labour MPs still losing their seats given Labour started from a higher base than the LiberalsFoxy said:Now let's see if Labour can pull off the same, with a leadership shift and swing away from Trumpism to keep them in power by defeating an opposition leader who idolises MAGA and the cult of Trump.
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Morning, Gallowgate.Gallowgate said:The West is still very divided and I am not sure, short of a major war, how it can be fixed.
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Pierre riding for a fall?0
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I think risk of civil war/state secession is pretty high in the US over the next 4 years. Like >10% chance.Gallowgate said:The West is still very divided and I am not sure, short of a major war, how it can be fixed.
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Morning. Although I am not sure whether you’re disagreeing with my post or notCasino_Royale said:
Morning, Gallowgate.Gallowgate said:The West is still very divided and I am not sure, short of a major war, how it can be fixed.
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The more important failure is that everything in the graph is MoE, no?HYUFD said:
EC projects LDs will be third on Thursday behind the Tories and Reformflanner2 said:
Wait till you see the results on Friday. Then you'll see that we won't reach Peak LibDems till they become our real Opposition party in 2028 or 2029. And possibly our majority government in 2032Taz said:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_lepoll_20250314.html
Note in classic LD barchart fashion that change in poll ratings is over the last 3 months, since the last GE the LDs are only up around 1% while Reform are up about 10%0 -
The Canadian Conservatives are currently on 41% of the vote, their highest voteshare since 1988, so hardly a massive rejection of Poilievre extremism but a vote that in normal circumstances would see Poilievre win and get a majority government.vik said:
It depends on the Conservatives.TheScreamingEagles said:
I wonder if this is Canada's 1992.ToryJim said:Clearly Trudeau was massively unpopular and the twin effect of switching to Carney and the Trump mayhem has combined to boost the Liberal support. From what I can see the Conservatives have done well but the circumstances have allowed the Liberals to squeak through.
There are dangers for both parties, the danger for Conservatives in Canada is overanalysing the situation. Poilievre was clearly on to something but if the party decides his approach needs sweeping change it could retard efforts for the next election. The danger for the Liberals is that squeezing out a species of victory in unique circumstances will leave them highly vulnerable to a very rapid backlash if the electorate see stuff happening that prompts some buyers remorse.
Win an election after replacing an unpopular leader/defeating an unpopular LOTO which leads to a shellacking at the following GE.
If they ditch Pierre & Maple MAGAism, and go with a sensible centrist as party leader (who stays far far away from Jordan Peterson), then it'll be a landslide to Conservatives.
If, on the other hand, they become even more extreme right-wing, then it might be another close election.
Only massive NDP tactical votes for the Liberals defeated him0 -
Conservatives campaigning for Reform again. What on earth are they thinking? If the measures are too little, too late who do they think has been in power from 2010-2024?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvg7q0e77exo
Asylum seekers will be denied the right to stay in the UK if they have been convicted of sexual offences, the government has announced.
Terrorists, war criminals and any other criminals whose offences carry a sentence of one year or more can already be refused asylum under the Refugee Convention.
Under the changes, this will be extended to anyone convicted in the UK of a crime which places them on the sex offenders register, regardless of the length of their sentence.
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said this would "ensure these appalling crimes are taken seriously" but the Conservatives said the measures were "too little, too late".0 -
An embarrassment for Trump which is good. I'm a fan of Mark Carney. Full on anti Brexit which puts him in a different league to most current British politicians. Meanwhile I've just heard them say that Trump has the lowest opinion poll rating of any President at this stage in the last 80 years.3
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I recommend a nice refreshing shower and a strong cup of coffee.Gallowgate said:
Morning. Although I am not sure whether you’re disagreeing with my post or notCasino_Royale said:
Morning, Gallowgate.Gallowgate said:The West is still very divided and I am not sure, short of a major war, how it can be fixed.
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Maybe we could get it on the national healthNigelb said:Drinking champagne could reduce risk of sudden cardiac arrest, study suggests
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/apr/29/drink-champagne-reduce-risk-sudden-cardiac-arrest-study-suggests2 -
Fanjoy now at 50.2%.
255/266 reported.0 -
He is not happy about itRoger said:I've just heard them say that Trump has the lowest opinion poll rating of any President at this stage in the last 80 years.
https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/19170790354205084220 -
Countdown to Carney relinquishing his British and Irish citizenships like he promised.0
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Did publicity shy PP have a market on publicity hungry PP losing ?vik said:Fanjoy now at 50.2%.
255/266 reported.
Never checked.1 -
We will butt lick Trump and continue circling the drain given the craven useless clowns running the UKRochdalePioneers said:Oh Canada! With Trump and the power of Trump having been defeated, its time to listen to Carney. The previous US-led free trade world "is over". Instead of wazzocking around like Starmer trying to obsequiously crawl to defend this former world order we should ally with our brothers and sisters in Canada in building the new one.
0 -
There is widespread discontent regarding living standards and migration. Regardless of which party is elected in which country that is pretty universal.Gallowgate said:The West is still very divided and I am not sure, short of a major war, how it can be fixed.
Wars tend to focus attention onto the Big Thing with the smaller annoyances swept aside. The US has launched a trade war against us and I think that focus is now swinging onto where we go from here and what the new world will look like.
Reconfigured global trade, increased defence spending, a push towards self-sufficiency away from dodgy bastards like Russia and the US. This offers the prospect of change which can positively affect people's daily grievances. If you offer the status quo in an election I can see how you would get beaten. Offer change? We can fix things.3 -
From PPICIPM to POPPWAS in a couple of months.0
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Cheer up, we could have a PB Pals battalion!Gallowgate said:The West is still very divided and I am not sure, short of a major war, how it can be fixed.
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Morning all,
Just woken to the news. Just LOL. The stable genius at work again.
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Can you please not comment on, like, anything until all the results are in ?Roger said:An embarrassment for Trump which is good. I'm a fan of Mark Carney. Full on anti Brexit which puts him in a different league to most current British politicians. Meanwhile I've just heard them say that Trump has the lowest opinion poll rating of any President at this stage in the last 80 years.
Some of us have money riding on this.0 -
Can you please not comment on, like, anything until all the results are in ?Roger said:An embarrassment for Trump which is good. I'm a fan of Mark Carney. Full on anti Brexit which puts him in a different league to most current British politicians. Meanwhile I've just heard them say that Trump has the lowest opinion poll rating of any President at this stage in the last 80 years.
Some of us have money riding on this.1 -
@DecisionDeskHQ
With 254 of 266 polls reporting, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre's gap behind his Liberal challenger in his Ontario riding goes back up to ~4% from the previous vote drop.0 -
Some of us got 15/1Casino_Royale said:Some of us have money riding on this.
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Destroy the Internet.Gallowgate said:The West is still very divided and I am not sure, short of a major war, how it can be fixed.
IMV a massive issue is people being sold simple 'solutions' to complex problems. We saw this with Brexit, where we were told all the ills of the country were down to the EU. Then we left, and the problems remained. Therefore many of the Brexiteers shout "It was done wrong!!!!", and move onto the next issue that's the cause of all the ills: immigration.
They're simple answers that will make little difference to complex problems. But the nature of the Internet sells the simple soundbite-style solutions well, and complex solutions are hard to sell.
Also, enemies can use the Internet to divide the public. Make much of nonsensical wedge issues to divide, often using the 'other' as a target. It's not your fault - it's *their* fault. Hate your fellow countryman, not us.7 -
I’ve stayed up all night and looks like I’ll have to stay up a while longer to see if an LPC majority is possible.
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To be fair, some are now selling the 'rejoin and everything's better' simple solution. The problem we face as a country have to be tackled and the only question is the manner of the pain involved.JosiasJessop said:
Destroy the Internet.Gallowgate said:The West is still very divided and I am not sure, short of a major war, how it can be fixed.
IMV a massive issue is people being sold simple 'solutions' to complex problems. We saw this with Brexit, where we were told all the ills of the country were down to the EU. Then we left, and the problems remained. Therefore many of the Brexiteers shout "It was done wrong!!!!", and move onto the next issue that's the cause of all the ills: immigration.
They're simple answers that will make little difference to complex problems. But the nature of the Internet sells the simple soundbite-style solutions well, and complex solutions are hard to sell.
Also, enemies can use the Internet to divide the public. Make much of nonsensical wedge issues to divide, often using the 'other' as a target. It's not your fault - it's *their* fault. Hate your fellow countryman, not us.2 -
By the time NHS procurement get involved a £15 bottle from Aldi will have cost the taxpayer a thousand pounds. It'll be like paracetamol. 37 pence for 16 in Home Bargains and a tenner to the NHS purchasing directly from big pharma.Roger said:
Maybe we could get it on the national healthNigelb said:Drinking champagne could reduce risk of sudden cardiac arrest, study suggests
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/apr/29/drink-champagne-reduce-risk-sudden-cardiac-arrest-study-suggests0 -
Time to revisit some of these...
https://bsky.app/profile/jessicaelgot.bsky.social/post/3lnwkkj74lk2j2 -
I know hyperbole is more engaging but a close election result in Canada doesn't mean a major war is needed to clear the air.Unpopular said:
Cheer up, we could have a PB Pals battalion!Gallowgate said:The West is still very divided and I am not sure, short of a major war, how it can be fixed.
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The most Trump-butt-licking party, Reform UK, are expected to win our next elections.malcolmg said:
We will butt lick Trump and continue circling the drain given the craven useless clowns running the UKRochdalePioneers said:Oh Canada! With Trump and the power of Trump having been defeated, its time to listen to Carney. The previous US-led free trade world "is over". Instead of wazzocking around like Starmer trying to obsequiously crawl to defend this former world order we should ally with our brothers and sisters in Canada in building the new one.
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I think the most salient fact was that Mrs May was a certainty but not likable enough to want to give her a landslide. I'm sure if there was a possibility of Corbyn winning voters would have been more circumspectFoxy said:
That was certainly part of it. but there was genuine Corbynmania.vik said:
I suspect that Corbyn in 2017 benefited from a last-ditch attempt by Remainers to somehow block Brexit.HYUFD said:
Corbyn did gain 30 seats in 2017 and nearly became PM but was beaten by tactical votes against him as the Canadian Liberals have won it seems via tactical anti Trump votesTheScreamingEagles said:
Spoken like a true Corbynite in 2017.HYUFD said:Let us not forget the Canadian Conservatives are up 9% on the last Canadian election and have also gained seats too.
It is not so much being close to Trump has damaged them, Poilievre was not Maga enough for Trump anyway, more the threat of Trump's tariffs and annexation talk has united the Canadian left and liberals behind the Liberal Party. Hence the collapse in the NDP vote via tactical votes for Carney's Liberals
They were willing to swallow Corbyn's extremism if it somehow meant a very soft Brexit, or even possibly no Brexit. And yes, I understand that Corbyn was also pro-Brexit, but the option was either Tories or Labour, and Labour was a lot less pro-Brexit than the Tories.
I think it wasn't a vote "for" Corbyn's extremist leftism, but a vote "against" extremist Brexitism.
Corbyns speech at Tranmere Rovers is where it began. and transformed the campaign.0 -
Good Canadian election coverage throughout the early hours on PB. A shout out to RCS and Casino (foiling the Leon hijack was swift and brutal) among others.5
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Tactical voting is a natural consequence of one party putting forward a controversial candidate. Poilievre's Trump sympathies were enough this election to make that the key factor, coming from a position where the Liberal government was deeply unpopular and due a spell in opposition.HYUFD said:
The Canadian Conservatives are currently on 41% of the vote, their highest voteshare since 1988, so hardly a massive rejection of Poilievre extremism but a vote that in normal circumstances would see Poilievre win and get a majority government.vik said:
It depends on the Conservatives.TheScreamingEagles said:
I wonder if this is Canada's 1992.ToryJim said:Clearly Trudeau was massively unpopular and the twin effect of switching to Carney and the Trump mayhem has combined to boost the Liberal support. From what I can see the Conservatives have done well but the circumstances have allowed the Liberals to squeak through.
There are dangers for both parties, the danger for Conservatives in Canada is overanalysing the situation. Poilievre was clearly on to something but if the party decides his approach needs sweeping change it could retard efforts for the next election. The danger for the Liberals is that squeezing out a species of victory in unique circumstances will leave them highly vulnerable to a very rapid backlash if the electorate see stuff happening that prompts some buyers remorse.
Win an election after replacing an unpopular leader/defeating an unpopular LOTO which leads to a shellacking at the following GE.
If they ditch Pierre & Maple MAGAism, and go with a sensible centrist as party leader (who stays far far away from Jordan Peterson), then it'll be a landslide to Conservatives.
If, on the other hand, they become even more extreme right-wing, then it might be another close election.
Only massive NDP tactical votes for the Liberals defeated him
If parties don't want others to tactically vote against them, they need to be positioned accordingly.
If the Canadian Conservatives had been anti-Trump from the start in the same way Merz was in Germany, then they would have won very comfortably today.3 -
Never stopped any commenting before...Casino_Royale said:
Can you please not comment on, like, anything until all the results are in ?Roger said:An embarrassment for Trump which is good. I'm a fan of Mark Carney. Full on anti Brexit which puts him in a different league to most current British politicians. Meanwhile I've just heard them say that Trump has the lowest opinion poll rating of any President at this stage in the last 80 years.
Some of us have money riding on this.2 -
a
So Taittinger Blanc de Blanc? Though your chances of finding a drinkable, genuine ‘43 are basically zero.Casino_Royale said:
Well, if I must.Nigelb said:Drinking champagne could reduce risk of sudden cardiac arrest, study suggests
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/apr/29/drink-champagne-reduce-risk-sudden-cardiac-arrest-study-suggests0 -
The NHS is extraordinarily good at negotiating drug prices: https://firstwordpharma.com/story/5802523 They pay about a third of what the same drugs cost in the US.Mexicanpete said:
By the time NHS procurement get involved a £15 bottle from Aldi will have cost the taxpayer a thousand pounds. It'll be like paracetamol. 37 pence for 16 in Home Bargains and a tenner to the NHS purchasing directly from big pharma.Roger said:
Maybe we could get it on the national healthNigelb said:Drinking champagne could reduce risk of sudden cardiac arrest, study suggests
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/apr/29/drink-champagne-reduce-risk-sudden-cardiac-arrest-study-suggests0 -
Did he hire Truss as a political strategist?BartholomewRoberts said:From PPICIPM to POPPWAS in a couple of months.
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It's certainly reassuring to have him in the anti Trump pro civilised nations corner.RochdalePioneers said:Oh Canada! With Trump and the power of Trump having been defeated, its time to listen to Carney. The previous US-led free trade world "is over". Instead of wazzocking around like Starmer trying to obsequiously crawl to defend this former world order we should ally with our brothers and sisters in Canada in building the new one.
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Yeah, the high cost of paracetamol to the NHS is the prescribing (pharmacist) fee, as I understand it.bondegezou said:
The NHS is extraordinarily good at negotiating drug prices: https://firstwordpharma.com/story/5802523 They pay about a third of what the same drugs cost in the US.Mexicanpete said:
By the time NHS procurement get involved a £15 bottle from Aldi will have cost the taxpayer a thousand pounds. It'll be like paracetamol. 37 pence for 16 in Home Bargains and a tenner to the NHS purchasing directly from big pharma.Roger said:
Maybe we could get it on the national healthNigelb said:Drinking champagne could reduce risk of sudden cardiac arrest, study suggests
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/apr/29/drink-champagne-reduce-risk-sudden-cardiac-arrest-study-suggests0 -
Are you now expecting a late win for the Cons after Roger's intervention?Casino_Royale said:
Can you please not comment on, like, anything until all the results are in ?Roger said:An embarrassment for Trump which is good. I'm a fan of Mark Carney. Full on anti Brexit which puts him in a different league to most current British politicians. Meanwhile I've just heard them say that Trump has the lowest opinion poll rating of any President at this stage in the last 80 years.
Some of us have money riding on this.0 -
People voted for Brexit for many reeasons - but I don't think it's particularly controversial to say that some people voted Brexit because of immigration. Which hasn't come down. So they are still quite strongly against immigration.JosiasJessop said:
Destroy the Internet.Gallowgate said:The West is still very divided and I am not sure, short of a major war, how it can be fixed.
IMV a massive issue is people being sold simple 'solutions' to complex problems. We saw this with Brexit, where we were told all the ills of the country were down to the EU. Then we left, and the problems remained. Therefore many of the Brexiteers shout "It was done wrong!!!!", and move onto the next issue that's the cause of all the ills: immigration.
They're simple answers that will make little difference to complex problems. But the nature of the Internet sells the simple soundbite-style solutions well, and complex solutions are hard to sell.
Also, enemies can use the Internet to divide the public. Make much of nonsensical wedge issues to divide, often using the 'other' as a target. It's not your fault - it's *their* fault. Hate your fellow countryman, not us.
And they're not against immigration because it's presented as a magic bullet to the country's ills. They're against it because we've had more immigration in the last 25 years than at any point, ever, in our island's history, in either relative or absolute terms - and there is no polity anywhere in the world, ever, who will look up and say 'ooh, look, lots of people with a different culture arriving! Brilliant!'0 -
Overly simple or lying solutions to complex issues long predate the internet.JosiasJessop said:
Destroy the Internet.Gallowgate said:The West is still very divided and I am not sure, short of a major war, how it can be fixed.
IMV a massive issue is people being sold simple 'solutions' to complex problems. We saw this with Brexit, where we were told all the ills of the country were down to the EU. Then we left, and the problems remained. Therefore many of the Brexiteers shout "It was done wrong!!!!", and move onto the next issue that's the cause of all the ills: immigration.
They're simple answers that will make little difference to complex problems. But the nature of the Internet sells the simple soundbite-style solutions well, and complex solutions are hard to sell.
Also, enemies can use the Internet to divide the public. Make much of nonsensical wedge issues to divide, often using the 'other' as a target. It's not your fault - it's *their* fault. Hate your fellow countryman, not us.
The whole socialist movement owes its existence to that, as do organised religion and plenty of other inane ideologies.
As long as simple people have as many votes as the informed and the educated, you'll have a premium on superficial soundbites and inanities that don't pan out in practice.1 -
The internet is still a net plus. The one thing we need to change is the use of algorithms on social media that drive engagement by encouraging strife and discord. I'd also ban online advertising.JosiasJessop said:
Destroy the Internet.Gallowgate said:The West is still very divided and I am not sure, short of a major war, how it can be fixed.
IMV a massive issue is people being sold simple 'solutions' to complex problems. We saw this with Brexit, where we were told all the ills of the country were down to the EU. Then we left, and the problems remained. Therefore many of the Brexiteers shout "It was done wrong!!!!", and move onto the next issue that's the cause of all the ills: immigration.
They're simple answers that will make little difference to complex problems. But the nature of the Internet sells the simple soundbite-style solutions well, and complex solutions are hard to sell.
Also, enemies can use the Internet to divide the public. Make much of nonsensical wedge issues to divide, often using the 'other' as a target. It's not your fault - it's *their* fault. Hate your fellow countryman, not us.
So, okay, two things.0 -
(1/5)
Farage I suspect will wisely keep himself away from Trump going forward.0 -
Such is their way. What a few months it has been for them all, what rage and joy some must feel at the changes in fortune.Casino_Royale said:If just 10 extra seats had flipped Liberal to Conservative, then Poilievre would be PM today and it'd be a Conservative victory the media were talking about.
Carney's victory is razer-thin, and it's almost certain Trump lost it for the Conservatives.
I entirely expect the nuances of this to be lost in the media reporting afterwards.0 -
When my late father was being delivered his weekly cocktail of cancer and Parkinson's drugs I checked out the cost of paracetamol to the NHS and it was absurdly expensive. I cancelled them and bought them myself from the supermarket instead. The cost to the NHS for otherwise over the counter drugs on prescription was outrageous.bondegezou said:
The NHS is extraordinarily good at negotiating drug prices: https://firstwordpharma.com/story/5802523 They pay about a third of what the same drugs cost in the US.Mexicanpete said:
By the time NHS procurement get involved a £15 bottle from Aldi will have cost the taxpayer a thousand pounds. It'll be like paracetamol. 37 pence for 16 in Home Bargains and a tenner to the NHS purchasing directly from big pharma.Roger said:
Maybe we could get it on the national healthNigelb said:Drinking champagne could reduce risk of sudden cardiac arrest, study suggests
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/apr/29/drink-champagne-reduce-risk-sudden-cardiac-arrest-study-suggests3 -
Part of the trouble is that the simple problems have been solved. We generally agree now that peace is preferable to war, treating people as chattels is bad, and so on. All of those needed to be worked out, but ultimately they were simple.JosiasJessop said:
Destroy the Internet.Gallowgate said:The West is still very divided and I am not sure, short of a major war, how it can be fixed.
IMV a massive issue is people being sold simple 'solutions' to complex problems. We saw this with Brexit, where we were told all the ills of the country were down to the EU. Then we left, and the problems remained. Therefore many of the Brexiteers shout "It was done wrong!!!!", and move onto the next issue that's the cause of all the ills: immigration.
They're simple answers that will make little difference to complex problems. But the nature of the Internet sells the simple soundbite-style solutions well, and complex solutions are hard to sell.
Also, enemies can use the Internet to divide the public. Make much of nonsensical wedge issues to divide, often using the 'other' as a target. It's not your fault - it's *their* fault. Hate your fellow countryman, not us.
Now, we're left with the difficult problems, the ones with fiendish tradeoffs. What's the right balance of our prosperity vs. future pollution, or the rights of two different marginalised groups?
They're difficult, which is why we don't have an agreed answer. Exactly the wrong problems to fit in social media.1 -
With the state of Trump's polling, everybody will.BatteryCorrectHorse said:(1/5)
Farage I suspect will wisely keep himself away from Trump going forward.0 -
Poilievre was anti Trump's tariffs, anti 51st state and pro Zelensky. Policy wise he and the Conservatives were closer to Merz than Trump (the AfD in Germany and PPC in Canada are the real MAGA parties there) and Merz let us remember got less than 30% of the vote for the CDU even if still largest party and did not get a majority but has had to form another coalition with the SPDRatters said:
Tactical voting is a natural consequence of one party putting forward a controversial candidate. Poilievre's Trump sympathies were enough this election to make that the key factor, coming from a position where the Liberal government was deeply unpopular and due a spell in opposition.HYUFD said:
The Canadian Conservatives are currently on 41% of the vote, their highest voteshare since 1988, so hardly a massive rejection of Poilievre extremism but a vote that in normal circumstances would see Poilievre win and get a majority government.vik said:
It depends on the Conservatives.TheScreamingEagles said:
I wonder if this is Canada's 1992.ToryJim said:Clearly Trudeau was massively unpopular and the twin effect of switching to Carney and the Trump mayhem has combined to boost the Liberal support. From what I can see the Conservatives have done well but the circumstances have allowed the Liberals to squeak through.
There are dangers for both parties, the danger for Conservatives in Canada is overanalysing the situation. Poilievre was clearly on to something but if the party decides his approach needs sweeping change it could retard efforts for the next election. The danger for the Liberals is that squeezing out a species of victory in unique circumstances will leave them highly vulnerable to a very rapid backlash if the electorate see stuff happening that prompts some buyers remorse.
Win an election after replacing an unpopular leader/defeating an unpopular LOTO which leads to a shellacking at the following GE.
If they ditch Pierre & Maple MAGAism, and go with a sensible centrist as party leader (who stays far far away from Jordan Peterson), then it'll be a landslide to Conservatives.
If, on the other hand, they become even more extreme right-wing, then it might be another close election.
Only massive NDP tactical votes for the Liberals defeated him
If parties don't want others to tactically vote against them, they need to be positioned accordingly.
If the Canadian Conservatives had been anti-Trump from the start in the same way Merz was in Germany, then they would have won very comfortably today.0 -
I doubt that Horse. He just won't be able to stay away. I doubt he sees Trump's unpopularity. Nigel's news sources all believe Trump to be doing a sterling job.BatteryCorrectHorse said:(1/5)
Farage I suspect will wisely keep himself away from Trump going forward.0 -
The problem is most voters are for or against things on the basis of ceteris paribus. So yes, they are clearly against immigration, but are they against immigration if it leads to their grandparents care home being chronically understaffed, long waiting lists for that hip operation, and a weaker economy?Cookie said:
People voted for Brexit for many reeasons - but I don't think it's particularly controversial to say that some people voted Brexit because of immigration. Which hasn't come down. So they are still quite strongly against immigration.JosiasJessop said:
Destroy the Internet.Gallowgate said:The West is still very divided and I am not sure, short of a major war, how it can be fixed.
IMV a massive issue is people being sold simple 'solutions' to complex problems. We saw this with Brexit, where we were told all the ills of the country were down to the EU. Then we left, and the problems remained. Therefore many of the Brexiteers shout "It was done wrong!!!!", and move onto the next issue that's the cause of all the ills: immigration.
They're simple answers that will make little difference to complex problems. But the nature of the Internet sells the simple soundbite-style solutions well, and complex solutions are hard to sell.
Also, enemies can use the Internet to divide the public. Make much of nonsensical wedge issues to divide, often using the 'other' as a target. It's not your fault - it's *their* fault. Hate your fellow countryman, not us.
And they're not against immigration because it's presented as a magic bullet to the country's ills. They're against it because we've had more immigration in the last 25 years than at any point, ever, in our island's history, in either relative or absolute terms - and there is no polity anywhere in the world, ever, who will look up and say 'ooh, look, lots of people with a different culture arriving! Brilliant!'
Some will be, others won't. Once in power a government that cuts immigration dramatically (below trend level rather than Boris wave level) will have to face those realities and as they have made no mention of them will get the blame and face disillusionment, just as the Tories and Labour have found.0
