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An update on my 14/1 bet – politicalbetting.com
An update on my 14/1 bet – politicalbetting.com
A truly stunning result for the Canadian Liberal Party. Mark Carney (with a lot of help from Donald Trump) has secured one of the greatest comebacks in electoral history. Liberals are up seats but so are the Conservatives. NDP rout. Libs likely a minority and will have to work with others.
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It is not so much being close to Trump has damaged them, Poilievre was not Maga enough for Trump anyway, more the threat of Trump's tariffs and annexation talk has united the Canadian left and liberals behind the Liberal Party. Hence the collapse in the NDP vote via tactical votes for Carney's Liberals
'Poilievre was also promising lots of new homes and to build far more affordable homes especially for young Canadians.
So his defeat may boost Canadian NIMBYs and that could also see a knock on boost to UK NIMBYs.
The UK Liberal Democrats are even more NIMBY than their Canadian Liberal cousins and will be hoping for gains in the local elections in England this week to match the Canadian Liberals win'
Ignoring of course that his constant anti-Canadian tirades helped facilitate that .
https://unherd.com/newsroom/canadas-liberals-can-thank-trump-for-election-win/
They were willing to swallow Corbyn's extremism if it somehow meant a very soft Brexit, or even possibly no Brexit. And yes, I understand that Corbyn was also pro-Brexit, but the option was either Tories or Labour, and Labour was a lot less pro-Brexit than the Tories.
I think it wasn't a vote "for" Corbyn's extremist leftism, but a vote "against" extremist Brexitism.
There are dangers for both parties, the danger for Conservatives in Canada is overanalysing the situation. Poilievre was clearly on to something but if the party decides his approach needs sweeping change it could retard efforts for the next election. The danger for the Liberals is that squeezing out a species of victory in unique circumstances will leave them highly vulnerable to a very rapid backlash if the electorate see stuff happening that prompts some buyers remorse.
Win an election after replacing an unpopular leader/defeating an unpopular LOTO which leads to a shellacking at the following GE.
More appropriate what3words fun.
That anti-wheelchair barrier I was complaining about the other day has a political What3Words address:
https://what3words.com/unfair.whips.club
Pitch@Palace Global remained the prince's company, under his control. But in line with longstanding royal practice, it was owned under the names of other people or companies, acting on his behalf as so-called "nominees".
Documents filed at Companies House show that from 2021, the nominee owner was Knox House Trustees (UK), which was controlled and ultimately owned by Mr Barrowman until 2023.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9vep0p877wo
https://x.com/libdems/status/1916918565241839788?s=61
If they ditch Pierre & Maple MAGAism, and go with a sensible centrist as party leader (who stays far far away from Jordan Peterson), then it'll be a landslide to Conservatives.
If, on the other hand, they become even more extreme right-wing, then it might be another close election.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/apr/29/drink-champagne-reduce-risk-sudden-cardiac-arrest-study-suggests
It’s clearly a rejection of Trump (just look at the polls, prior!); hence why so many minor party supporters were pushed into taking a position.
Trump: ‘I run the country and the world’
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5270899-trump-i-run-the-country-and-the-world/
Corbyns speech at Tranmere Rovers is where it began. and transformed the campaign.
That doesn't apply to the UK or Australia.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_lepoll_20250314.html
Note in classic LD barchart fashion that change in poll ratings is over the last 3 months, since the last GE the LDs are only up around 1% while Reform are up about 10%
Podbean: https://undercutters.podbean.com/e/f1-2025-miami-grand-prix-preview-and-predictions/
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/f1-2025-miami-grand-prix-preview-and-predictions/id1786574257?i=1000705370196
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/76DF3M01az3ioIAee1dhil
Amazon: https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/bcfe213b-55fb-408a-a823-dc6693ee9f78/episodes/74fe53d1-3ead-4e95-9025-3375badfe4f4/undercutters---f1-podcast-f1-2025-miami-grand-prix-preview-and-predictions
Transcript: https://morrisf1.blogspot.com/2025/04/f1-2025-miami-grand-prix-preview-and.html
Only massive NDP tactical votes for the Liberals defeated him
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvg7q0e77exo
Asylum seekers will be denied the right to stay in the UK if they have been convicted of sexual offences, the government has announced.
Terrorists, war criminals and any other criminals whose offences carry a sentence of one year or more can already be refused asylum under the Refugee Convention.
Under the changes, this will be extended to anyone convicted in the UK of a crime which places them on the sex offenders register, regardless of the length of their sentence.
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said this would "ensure these appalling crimes are taken seriously" but the Conservatives said the measures were "too little, too late".
255/266 reported.
https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1917079035420508422
Never checked.
Wars tend to focus attention onto the Big Thing with the smaller annoyances swept aside. The US has launched a trade war against us and I think that focus is now swinging onto where we go from here and what the new world will look like.
Reconfigured global trade, increased defence spending, a push towards self-sufficiency away from dodgy bastards like Russia and the US. This offers the prospect of change which can positively affect people's daily grievances. If you offer the status quo in an election I can see how you would get beaten. Offer change? We can fix things.
Just woken to the news. Just LOL. The stable genius at work again.
Some of us have money riding on this.
Some of us have money riding on this.
With 254 of 266 polls reporting, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre's gap behind his Liberal challenger in his Ontario riding goes back up to ~4% from the previous vote drop.
IMV a massive issue is people being sold simple 'solutions' to complex problems. We saw this with Brexit, where we were told all the ills of the country were down to the EU. Then we left, and the problems remained. Therefore many of the Brexiteers shout "It was done wrong!!!!", and move onto the next issue that's the cause of all the ills: immigration.
They're simple answers that will make little difference to complex problems. But the nature of the Internet sells the simple soundbite-style solutions well, and complex solutions are hard to sell.
Also, enemies can use the Internet to divide the public. Make much of nonsensical wedge issues to divide, often using the 'other' as a target. It's not your fault - it's *their* fault. Hate your fellow countryman, not us.
https://bsky.app/profile/jessicaelgot.bsky.social/post/3lnwkkj74lk2j
If parties don't want others to tactically vote against them, they need to be positioned accordingly.
If the Canadian Conservatives had been anti-Trump from the start in the same way Merz was in Germany, then they would have won very comfortably today.
And they're not against immigration because it's presented as a magic bullet to the country's ills. They're against it because we've had more immigration in the last 25 years than at any point, ever, in our island's history, in either relative or absolute terms - and there is no polity anywhere in the world, ever, who will look up and say 'ooh, look, lots of people with a different culture arriving! Brilliant!'
The whole socialist movement owes its existence to that, as do organised religion and plenty of other inane ideologies.
As long as simple people have as many votes as the informed and the educated, you'll have a premium on superficial soundbites and inanities that don't pan out in practice.
So, okay, two things.
Farage I suspect will wisely keep himself away from Trump going forward.
Now, we're left with the difficult problems, the ones with fiendish tradeoffs. What's the right balance of our prosperity vs. future pollution, or the rights of two different marginalised groups?
They're difficult, which is why we don't have an agreed answer. Exactly the wrong problems to fit in social media.
Some will be, others won't. Once in power a government that cuts immigration dramatically (below trend level rather than Boris wave level) will have to face those realities and as they have made no mention of them will get the blame and face disillusionment, just as the Tories and Labour have found.