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An update on my 14/1 bet – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,438
edited 6:28AM in General
An update on my 14/1 bet – politicalbetting.com

A truly stunning result for the Canadian Liberal Party. Mark Carney (with a lot of help from Donald Trump) has secured one of the greatest comebacks in electoral history. Liberals are up seats but so are the Conservatives. NDP rout. Libs likely a minority and will have to work with others.

Read the full story here

«13456

Comments

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,160
    Let us not forget the Canadian Conservatives are up 9% on the last Canadian election and have also gained seats too.

    It is not so much being close to Trump has damaged them, Poilievre was not Maga enough for Trump anyway, more the threat of Trump's tariffs and annexation talk has united the Canadian left and liberals behind the Liberal Party. Hence the collapse in the NDP vote via tactical votes for Carney's Liberals
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,160
    As I posted on the last thread this Canadian election result is also a big boost for NiMBYs as well as Trump haters.

    'Poilievre was also promising lots of new homes and to build far more affordable homes especially for young Canadians.

    So his defeat may boost Canadian NIMBYs and that could also see a knock on boost to UK NIMBYs.

    The UK Liberal Democrats are even more NIMBY than their Canadian Liberal cousins and will be hoping for gains in the local elections in England this week to match the Canadian Liberals win'
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,481
    Carleton update. 19 polling stations left to report. Poilievre still trails by over 1,800 votes.


  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,374
    In ‘Look what you might have won Canada’ news, Trump is apparently holding a 100 days celebration rally in Michigan today. Is there a market on how many lies he’ll tell?
  • vikvik Posts: 280
    Bruce Fanjoy now at 50.1% with 249/266 reported.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,481
    vik said:

    Bruce Fanjoy now at 50.1% with 249/266 reported.

    I think he's done it
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,160
    edited 6:37AM
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Let us not forget the Canadian Conservatives are up 9% on the last Canadian election and have also gained seats too.

    It is not so much being close to Trump has damaged them, Poilievre was not Maga enough for Trump anyway, more the threat of Trump's tariffs and annexation talk has united the Canadian left and liberals behind the Liberal Party. Hence the collapse in the NDP vote via tactical votes for Carney's Liberals

    Spoken like a true Corbynite in 2017.
    Corbyn did gain 30 seats in 2017 and nearly became PM but was beaten by tactical votes against him as the Canadian Liberals have won it seems via tactical anti Trump votes
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,145
    edited 6:41AM
    How long before Trump calls Poilievre a loser ?

    Ignoring of course that his constant anti-Canadian tirades helped facilitate that .
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,750
    edited 6:42AM
    Former Poliviere staffer writes on results:

    https://unherd.com/newsroom/canadas-liberals-can-thank-trump-for-election-win/
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,893
    Well done 14/1ers.
  • vikvik Posts: 280
    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Let us not forget the Canadian Conservatives are up 9% on the last Canadian election and have also gained seats too.

    It is not so much being close to Trump has damaged them, Poilievre was not Maga enough for Trump anyway, more the threat of Trump's tariffs and annexation talk has united the Canadian left and liberals behind the Liberal Party. Hence the collapse in the NDP vote via tactical votes for Carney's Liberals

    Spoken like a true Corbynite in 2017.
    Corbyn did gain 30 seats in 2017 and nearly became PM but was beaten by tactical votes against him as the Canadian Liberals have won it seems via tactical anti Trump votes
    I suspect that Corbyn in 2017 benefited from a last-ditch attempt by Remainers to somehow block Brexit.

    They were willing to swallow Corbyn's extremism if it somehow meant a very soft Brexit, or even possibly no Brexit. And yes, I understand that Corbyn was also pro-Brexit, but the option was either Tories or Labour, and Labour was a lot less pro-Brexit than the Tories.

    I think it wasn't a vote "for" Corbyn's extremist leftism, but a vote "against" extremist Brexitism.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    Clearly Trudeau was massively unpopular and the twin effect of switching to Carney and the Trump mayhem has combined to boost the Liberal support. From what I can see the Conservatives have done well but the circumstances have allowed the Liberals to squeak through.

    There are dangers for both parties, the danger for Conservatives in Canada is overanalysing the situation. Poilievre was clearly on to something but if the party decides his approach needs sweeping change it could retard efforts for the next election. The danger for the Liberals is that squeezing out a species of victory in unique circumstances will leave them highly vulnerable to a very rapid backlash if the electorate see stuff happening that prompts some buyers remorse.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,567
    edited 6:47AM
    nico67 said:

    How long before Trump calls Poilievre a loser ?

    Ignoring of course that his constant anti-Canadian tirades helped facilitate that .

    They call him pathetic Poilievre, everybody says it...
  • vikvik Posts: 280
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    nico67 said:

    How long before Trump calls Poilievre a loser ?

    Ignoring of course that his constant anti-Canadian tirades helped facilitate that .

    They call him pathetic Poilievre, everybody says it...
    Trump can't pronounce Poilievre. He'll probably go with "pathetic Pierre".
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,713
    Heh.

    More appropriate what3words fun.

    That anti-wheelchair barrier I was complaining about the other day has a political What3Words address:

    https://what3words.com/unfair.whips.club
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,567
    edited 6:50AM
    One of Prince Andrew's prized business assets was administered for two years by a company controlled by the controversial millionaire Doug Barrowman, the BBC can reveal.

    Pitch@Palace Global remained the prince's company, under his control. But in line with longstanding royal practice, it was owned under the names of other people or companies, acting on his behalf as so-called "nominees".

    Documents filed at Companies House show that from 2021, the nominee owner was Knox House Trustees (UK), which was controlled and ultimately owned by Mr Barrowman until 2023.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9vep0p877wo
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,684
    Peak Lib Dems

    https://x.com/libdems/status/1916918565241839788?s=61
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,145
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    nico67 said:

    How long before Trump calls Poilievre a loser ?

    Ignoring of course that his constant anti-Canadian tirades helped facilitate that .

    They call him pathetic Poilievre, everybody says it...
    The NDP clearly voted tactically in huge numbers , and it could be some PCP thought Poilievre wasn’t in danger of losing his seat .
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,885
    vik said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    nico67 said:

    How long before Trump calls Poilievre a loser ?

    Ignoring of course that his constant anti-Canadian tirades helped facilitate that .

    They call him pathetic Poilievre, everybody says it...
    Trump can't pronounce Poilievre. He'll probably go with "pathetic Pierre".
    Pitiful PP.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,160
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ToryJim said:

    Clearly Trudeau was massively unpopular and the twin effect of switching to Carney and the Trump mayhem has combined to boost the Liberal support. From what I can see the Conservatives have done well but the circumstances have allowed the Liberals to squeak through.

    There are dangers for both parties, the danger for Conservatives in Canada is overanalysing the situation. Poilievre was clearly on to something but if the party decides his approach needs sweeping change it could retard efforts for the next election. The danger for the Liberals is that squeezing out a species of victory in unique circumstances will leave them highly vulnerable to a very rapid backlash if the electorate see stuff happening that prompts some buyers remorse.

    I wonder if this is Canada's 1992.

    Win an election after replacing an unpopular leader/defeating an unpopular LOTO which leads to a shellacking at the following GE.
    Trump won't be in office by the time of the next Canadian election either
  • vikvik Posts: 280
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ToryJim said:

    Clearly Trudeau was massively unpopular and the twin effect of switching to Carney and the Trump mayhem has combined to boost the Liberal support. From what I can see the Conservatives have done well but the circumstances have allowed the Liberals to squeak through.

    There are dangers for both parties, the danger for Conservatives in Canada is overanalysing the situation. Poilievre was clearly on to something but if the party decides his approach needs sweeping change it could retard efforts for the next election. The danger for the Liberals is that squeezing out a species of victory in unique circumstances will leave them highly vulnerable to a very rapid backlash if the electorate see stuff happening that prompts some buyers remorse.

    I wonder if this is Canada's 1992.

    Win an election after replacing an unpopular leader/defeating an unpopular LOTO which leads to a shellacking at the following GE.
    It depends on the Conservatives.

    If they ditch Pierre & Maple MAGAism, and go with a sensible centrist as party leader (who stays far far away from Jordan Peterson), then it'll be a landslide to Conservatives.

    If, on the other hand, they become even more extreme right-wing, then it might be another close election.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,885
    Drinking champagne could reduce risk of sudden cardiac arrest, study suggests
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/apr/29/drink-champagne-reduce-risk-sudden-cardiac-arrest-study-suggests
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,630
    Nigelb said:

    vik said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    nico67 said:

    How long before Trump calls Poilievre a loser ?

    Ignoring of course that his constant anti-Canadian tirades helped facilitate that .

    They call him pathetic Poilievre, everybody says it...
    Trump can't pronounce Poilievre. He'll probably go with "pathetic Pierre".
    Pitiful PP.
    The PP Guy
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,149
    edited 6:54AM
    HYUFD said:

    Let us not forget the Canadian Conservatives are up 9% on the last Canadian election and have also gained seats too.

    It is not so much being close to Trump has damaged them, Poilievre was not Maga enough for Trump anyway, more the threat of Trump's tariffs and annexation talk has united the Canadian left and liberals behind the Liberal Party. Hence the collapse in the NDP vote via tactical votes for Carney's Liberals

    Good luck with that.

    It’s clearly a rejection of Trump (just look at the polls, prior!); hence why so many minor party supporters were pushed into taking a position.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,718
    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ToryJim said:

    Clearly Trudeau was massively unpopular and the twin effect of switching to Carney and the Trump mayhem has combined to boost the Liberal support. From what I can see the Conservatives have done well but the circumstances have allowed the Liberals to squeak through.

    There are dangers for both parties, the danger for Conservatives in Canada is overanalysing the situation. Poilievre was clearly on to something but if the party decides his approach needs sweeping change it could retard efforts for the next election. The danger for the Liberals is that squeezing out a species of victory in unique circumstances will leave them highly vulnerable to a very rapid backlash if the electorate see stuff happening that prompts some buyers remorse.

    I wonder if this is Canada's 1992.

    Win an election after replacing an unpopular leader/defeating an unpopular LOTO which leads to a shellacking at the following GE.
    Trump won't be in office by the time of the next Canadian election either
    Oh you sweet innocent child.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,750
    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ToryJim said:

    Clearly Trudeau was massively unpopular and the twin effect of switching to Carney and the Trump mayhem has combined to boost the Liberal support. From what I can see the Conservatives have done well but the circumstances have allowed the Liberals to squeak through.

    There are dangers for both parties, the danger for Conservatives in Canada is overanalysing the situation. Poilievre was clearly on to something but if the party decides his approach needs sweeping change it could retard efforts for the next election. The danger for the Liberals is that squeezing out a species of victory in unique circumstances will leave them highly vulnerable to a very rapid backlash if the electorate see stuff happening that prompts some buyers remorse.

    I wonder if this is Canada's 1992.

    Win an election after replacing an unpopular leader/defeating an unpopular LOTO which leads to a shellacking at the following GE.
    Trump won't be in office by the time of the next Canadian election either
    By the latest possible date of the next election, no.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,885
    Evidently not.

    Trump: ‘I run the country and the world’
    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5270899-trump-i-run-the-country-and-the-world/
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,342
    vik said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Let us not forget the Canadian Conservatives are up 9% on the last Canadian election and have also gained seats too.

    It is not so much being close to Trump has damaged them, Poilievre was not Maga enough for Trump anyway, more the threat of Trump's tariffs and annexation talk has united the Canadian left and liberals behind the Liberal Party. Hence the collapse in the NDP vote via tactical votes for Carney's Liberals

    Spoken like a true Corbynite in 2017.
    Corbyn did gain 30 seats in 2017 and nearly became PM but was beaten by tactical votes against him as the Canadian Liberals have won it seems via tactical anti Trump votes
    I suspect that Corbyn in 2017 benefited from a last-ditch attempt by Remainers to somehow block Brexit.

    They were willing to swallow Corbyn's extremism if it somehow meant a very soft Brexit, or even possibly no Brexit. And yes, I understand that Corbyn was also pro-Brexit, but the option was either Tories or Labour, and Labour was a lot less pro-Brexit than the Tories.

    I think it wasn't a vote "for" Corbyn's extremist leftism, but a vote "against" extremist Brexitism.
    That was certainly part of it. but there was genuine Corbynmania.

    Corbyns speech at Tranmere Rovers is where it began. and transformed the campaign.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,481
    Carleton update. 14 polls left. PP now over 2,000 votes behind.


  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,630
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    One of Prince Andrew's prized business assets was administered for two years by a company controlled by the controversial millionaire Doug Barrowman, the BBC can reveal.

    Pitch@Palace Global remained the prince's company, under his control. But in line with longstanding royal practice, it was owned under the names of other people or companies, acting on his behalf as so-called "nominees".

    Documents filed at Companies House show that from 2021, the nominee owner was Knox House Trustees (UK), which was controlled and ultimately owned by Mr Barrowman until 2023.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9vep0p877wo

    John Barrowman might have been more fitting...
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,993
    vik said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Let us not forget the Canadian Conservatives are up 9% on the last Canadian election and have also gained seats too.

    It is not so much being close to Trump has damaged them, Poilievre was not Maga enough for Trump anyway, more the threat of Trump's tariffs and annexation talk has united the Canadian left and liberals behind the Liberal Party. Hence the collapse in the NDP vote via tactical votes for Carney's Liberals

    Spoken like a true Corbynite in 2017.
    Corbyn did gain 30 seats in 2017 and nearly became PM but was beaten by tactical votes against him as the Canadian Liberals have won it seems via tactical anti Trump votes
    I suspect that Corbyn in 2017 benefited from a last-ditch attempt by Remainers to somehow block Brexit.

    They were willing to swallow Corbyn's extremism if it somehow meant a very soft Brexit, or even possibly no Brexit. And yes, I understand that Corbyn was also pro-Brexit, but the option was either Tories or Labour, and Labour was a lot less pro-Brexit than the Tories.

    I think it wasn't a vote "for" Corbyn's extremist leftism, but a vote "against" extremist Brexitism.
    It was a vote against making any sensible attempt to fix the problem of funding social care for the elderly.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 688
    Nigelb said:

    Evidently not.

    Trump: ‘I run the country and the world’
    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5270899-trump-i-run-the-country-and-the-world/

    Seems that Russia doesn't think so as they start stockpiling weapons on the Finnish border.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,389
    Casino_Royale said:

    Carleton update. 14 polls left. PP now over 2,000 votes behind.


    Poilievre doesn't seem to have enough fans to bring him joy.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,481
    I hope the Fanboys are experiencing Fanjoy.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,342
    Now let's see if Labour can pull off the same, with a leadership shift and swing away from Trumpism to keep them in power by defeating an opposition leader who idolises MAGA and the cult of Trump.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,750
    Taz said:

    Peak Lib Dems

    https://x.com/libdems/status/1916918565241839788?s=61

    Do people merely fall for Lib Dem shamelessness or are they actually attracted to it? The later is rather Trumpian...
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,468
    I'd be wary of reading too much from Canada to elsewhere. Canada has a unique rally to the flag effect as Trump is literally threatening Canada with annexation.

    That doesn't apply to the UK or Australia.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,389
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ToryJim said:

    Clearly Trudeau was massively unpopular and the twin effect of switching to Carney and the Trump mayhem has combined to boost the Liberal support. From what I can see the Conservatives have done well but the circumstances have allowed the Liberals to squeak through.

    There are dangers for both parties, the danger for Conservatives in Canada is overanalysing the situation. Poilievre was clearly on to something but if the party decides his approach needs sweeping change it could retard efforts for the next election. The danger for the Liberals is that squeezing out a species of victory in unique circumstances will leave them highly vulnerable to a very rapid backlash if the electorate see stuff happening that prompts some buyers remorse.

    I wonder if this is Canada's 1992.

    Win an election after replacing an unpopular leader/defeating an unpopular LOTO which leads to a shellacking at the following GE.
    Depends a bit if there's a Canadian version of Black Wednesday and Blair in the pipeline. But yes, eventually the pendulum insists on swinging.
  • flanner2flanner2 Posts: 21
    Taz said:

    Peak Lib Dems

    https://x.com/libdems/status/1916918565241839788?s=61

    Wait till you see the results on Friday. Then you'll see that we won't reach Peak LibDems till they become our real Opposition party in 2028 or 2029. And possibly our majority government in 2032
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,342
    Taz said:

    Peak Lib Dems

    https://x.com/libdems/status/1916918565241839788?s=61

    A chart for the real gourmet!
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,145
    There were certain ridings where the combined centre left vote would have easily defeated the CPC but there seems to have been a degree of confusion as to who was best placed to beat the CPC .
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,160
    edited 7:04AM
    flanner2 said:

    Taz said:

    Peak Lib Dems

    https://x.com/libdems/status/1916918565241839788?s=61

    Wait till you see the results on Friday. Then you'll see that we won't reach Peak LibDems till they become our real Opposition party in 2028 or 2029. And possibly our majority government in 2032
    EC projects LDs will be third on Thursday behind the Tories and Reform
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_lepoll_20250314.html

    Note in classic LD barchart fashion that change in poll ratings is over the last 3 months, since the last GE the LDs are only up around 1% while Reform are up about 10%
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,492
    F1: Undercutters Ep18 looks forward (ahem) to Miami, one of my least favourite tracks. But it was where Norris got his first win, last year. And there's some interesting news about engines in 2026 (Ferrari fans may not like how things seem to be developing):

    Podbean: https://undercutters.podbean.com/e/f1-2025-miami-grand-prix-preview-and-predictions/

    Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/f1-2025-miami-grand-prix-preview-and-predictions/id1786574257?i=1000705370196

    Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/76DF3M01az3ioIAee1dhil

    Amazon: https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/bcfe213b-55fb-408a-a823-dc6693ee9f78/episodes/74fe53d1-3ead-4e95-9025-3375badfe4f4/undercutters---f1-podcast-f1-2025-miami-grand-prix-preview-and-predictions

    Transcript: https://morrisf1.blogspot.com/2025/04/f1-2025-miami-grand-prix-preview-and.html
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,180
    The West is still very divided and I am not sure, short of a major war, how it can be fixed.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,160
    Foxy said:

    Now let's see if Labour can pull off the same, with a leadership shift and swing away from Trumpism to keep them in power by defeating an opposition leader who idolises MAGA and the cult of Trump.

    So fail to win a majority like Carney has still failed to do in Canada? That would mean 100 Labour MPs still losing their seats given Labour started from a higher base than the Liberals
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,481
    Gallowgate said:

    The West is still very divided and I am not sure, short of a major war, how it can be fixed.

    Morning, Gallowgate.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,516
    Pierre riding for a fall?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,645
    Gallowgate said:

    The West is still very divided and I am not sure, short of a major war, how it can be fixed.

    I think risk of civil war/state secession is pretty high in the US over the next 4 years. Like >10% chance.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,180
    Casino_Royale said:

    Gallowgate said:

    The West is still very divided and I am not sure, short of a major war, how it can be fixed.

    Morning, Gallowgate.
    Morning. Although I am not sure whether you’re disagreeing with my post or not
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,750
    HYUFD said:

    flanner2 said:

    Taz said:

    Peak Lib Dems

    https://x.com/libdems/status/1916918565241839788?s=61

    Wait till you see the results on Friday. Then you'll see that we won't reach Peak LibDems till they become our real Opposition party in 2028 or 2029. And possibly our majority government in 2032
    EC projects LDs will be third on Thursday behind the Tories and Reform
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_lepoll_20250314.html

    Note in classic LD barchart fashion that change in poll ratings is over the last 3 months, since the last GE the LDs are only up around 1% while Reform are up about 10%
    The more important failure is that everything in the graph is MoE, no?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,160
    vik said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ToryJim said:

    Clearly Trudeau was massively unpopular and the twin effect of switching to Carney and the Trump mayhem has combined to boost the Liberal support. From what I can see the Conservatives have done well but the circumstances have allowed the Liberals to squeak through.

    There are dangers for both parties, the danger for Conservatives in Canada is overanalysing the situation. Poilievre was clearly on to something but if the party decides his approach needs sweeping change it could retard efforts for the next election. The danger for the Liberals is that squeezing out a species of victory in unique circumstances will leave them highly vulnerable to a very rapid backlash if the electorate see stuff happening that prompts some buyers remorse.

    I wonder if this is Canada's 1992.

    Win an election after replacing an unpopular leader/defeating an unpopular LOTO which leads to a shellacking at the following GE.
    It depends on the Conservatives.

    If they ditch Pierre & Maple MAGAism, and go with a sensible centrist as party leader (who stays far far away from Jordan Peterson), then it'll be a landslide to Conservatives.

    If, on the other hand, they become even more extreme right-wing, then it might be another close election.
    The Canadian Conservatives are currently on 41% of the vote, their highest voteshare since 1988, so hardly a massive rejection of Poilievre extremism but a vote that in normal circumstances would see Poilievre win and get a majority government.

    Only massive NDP tactical votes for the Liberals defeated him
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,292
    Conservatives campaigning for Reform again. What on earth are they thinking? If the measures are too little, too late who do they think has been in power from 2010-2024?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvg7q0e77exo

    Asylum seekers will be denied the right to stay in the UK if they have been convicted of sexual offences, the government has announced.

    Terrorists, war criminals and any other criminals whose offences carry a sentence of one year or more can already be refused asylum under the Refugee Convention.

    Under the changes, this will be extended to anyone convicted in the UK of a crime which places them on the sex offenders register, regardless of the length of their sentence.

    Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said this would "ensure these appalling crimes are taken seriously" but the Conservatives said the measures were "too little, too late".
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,497
    An embarrassment for Trump which is good. I'm a fan of Mark Carney. Full on anti Brexit which puts him in a different league to most current British politicians. Meanwhile I've just heard them say that Trump has the lowest opinion poll rating of any President at this stage in the last 80 years.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,481
    Gallowgate said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Gallowgate said:

    The West is still very divided and I am not sure, short of a major war, how it can be fixed.

    Morning, Gallowgate.
    Morning. Although I am not sure whether you’re disagreeing with my post or not
    I recommend a nice refreshing shower and a strong cup of coffee.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,497
    Nigelb said:

    Drinking champagne could reduce risk of sudden cardiac arrest, study suggests
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/apr/29/drink-champagne-reduce-risk-sudden-cardiac-arrest-study-suggests

    Maybe we could get it on the national health
  • vikvik Posts: 280
    Fanjoy now at 50.2%.

    255/266 reported.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,210
    Roger said:

    I've just heard them say that Trump has the lowest opinion poll rating of any President at this stage in the last 80 years.

    He is not happy about it

    https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1917079035420508422
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,750
    Countdown to Carney relinquishing his British and Irish citizenships like he promised.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,481
    vik said:

    Fanjoy now at 50.2%.

    255/266 reported.

    Did publicity shy PP have a market on publicity hungry PP losing ?

    Never checked.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,121
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Oh Canada! With Trump and the power of Trump having been defeated, its time to listen to Carney. The previous US-led free trade world "is over". Instead of wazzocking around like Starmer trying to obsequiously crawl to defend this former world order we should ally with our brothers and sisters in Canada in building the new one.

    We will butt lick Trump and continue circling the drain given the craven useless clowns running the UK
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,885
    Gallowgate said:

    The West is still very divided and I am not sure, short of a major war, how it can be fixed.

    There is widespread discontent regarding living standards and migration. Regardless of which party is elected in which country that is pretty universal.

    Wars tend to focus attention onto the Big Thing with the smaller annoyances swept aside. The US has launched a trade war against us and I think that focus is now swinging onto where we go from here and what the new world will look like.

    Reconfigured global trade, increased defence spending, a push towards self-sufficiency away from dodgy bastards like Russia and the US. This offers the prospect of change which can positively affect people's daily grievances. If you offer the status quo in an election I can see how you would get beaten. Offer change? We can fix things.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,468
    From PPICIPM to POPPWAS in a couple of months.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 914
    Gallowgate said:

    The West is still very divided and I am not sure, short of a major war, how it can be fixed.

    Cheer up, we could have a PB Pals battalion!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,594
    Morning all,

    Just woken to the news. Just LOL. The stable genius at work again.



  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,481
    Roger said:

    An embarrassment for Trump which is good. I'm a fan of Mark Carney. Full on anti Brexit which puts him in a different league to most current British politicians. Meanwhile I've just heard them say that Trump has the lowest opinion poll rating of any President at this stage in the last 80 years.

    Can you please not comment on, like, anything until all the results are in ?

    Some of us have money riding on this.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,481
    Roger said:

    An embarrassment for Trump which is good. I'm a fan of Mark Carney. Full on anti Brexit which puts him in a different league to most current British politicians. Meanwhile I've just heard them say that Trump has the lowest opinion poll rating of any President at this stage in the last 80 years.

    Can you please not comment on, like, anything until all the results are in ?

    Some of us have money riding on this.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,210
    @DecisionDeskHQ
    With 254 of 266 polls reporting, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre's gap behind his Liberal challenger in his Ontario riding goes back up to ~4% from the previous vote drop.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,210
    Casino_Royale said:

    Some of us have money riding on this.

    Some of us got 15/1
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,145
    I’ve stayed up all night and looks like I’ll have to stay up a while longer to see if an LPC majority is possible.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,492
    JosiasJessop said:

    Gallowgate said:

    The West is still very divided and I am not sure, short of a major war, how it can be fixed.

    Destroy the Internet. ;)

    IMV a massive issue is people being sold simple 'solutions' to complex problems. We saw this with Brexit, where we were told all the ills of the country were down to the EU. Then we left, and the problems remained. Therefore many of the Brexiteers shout "It was done wrong!!!!", and move onto the next issue that's the cause of all the ills: immigration.

    They're simple answers that will make little difference to complex problems. But the nature of the Internet sells the simple soundbite-style solutions well, and complex solutions are hard to sell.

    Also, enemies can use the Internet to divide the public. Make much of nonsensical wedge issues to divide, often using the 'other' as a target. It's not your fault - it's *their* fault. Hate your fellow countryman, not us.
    To be fair, some are now selling the 'rejoin and everything's better' simple solution. The problem we face as a country have to be tackled and the only question is the manner of the pain involved.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,372
    Roger said:

    Nigelb said:

    Drinking champagne could reduce risk of sudden cardiac arrest, study suggests
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/apr/29/drink-champagne-reduce-risk-sudden-cardiac-arrest-study-suggests

    Maybe we could get it on the national health
    By the time NHS procurement get involved a £15 bottle from Aldi will have cost the taxpayer a thousand pounds. It'll be like paracetamol. 37 pence for 16 in Home Bargains and a tenner to the NHS purchasing directly from big pharma.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,210
    Time to revisit some of these...

    https://bsky.app/profile/jessicaelgot.bsky.social/post/3lnwkkj74lk2j
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,481
    Unpopular said:

    Gallowgate said:

    The West is still very divided and I am not sure, short of a major war, how it can be fixed.

    Cheer up, we could have a PB Pals battalion!
    I know hyperbole is more engaging but a close election result in Canada doesn't mean a major war is needed to clear the air.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,769
    malcolmg said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Oh Canada! With Trump and the power of Trump having been defeated, its time to listen to Carney. The previous US-led free trade world "is over". Instead of wazzocking around like Starmer trying to obsequiously crawl to defend this former world order we should ally with our brothers and sisters in Canada in building the new one.

    We will butt lick Trump and continue circling the drain given the craven useless clowns running the UK
    The most Trump-butt-licking party, Reform UK, are expected to win our next elections.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,497
    Foxy said:

    vik said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Let us not forget the Canadian Conservatives are up 9% on the last Canadian election and have also gained seats too.

    It is not so much being close to Trump has damaged them, Poilievre was not Maga enough for Trump anyway, more the threat of Trump's tariffs and annexation talk has united the Canadian left and liberals behind the Liberal Party. Hence the collapse in the NDP vote via tactical votes for Carney's Liberals

    Spoken like a true Corbynite in 2017.
    Corbyn did gain 30 seats in 2017 and nearly became PM but was beaten by tactical votes against him as the Canadian Liberals have won it seems via tactical anti Trump votes
    I suspect that Corbyn in 2017 benefited from a last-ditch attempt by Remainers to somehow block Brexit.

    They were willing to swallow Corbyn's extremism if it somehow meant a very soft Brexit, or even possibly no Brexit. And yes, I understand that Corbyn was also pro-Brexit, but the option was either Tories or Labour, and Labour was a lot less pro-Brexit than the Tories.

    I think it wasn't a vote "for" Corbyn's extremist leftism, but a vote "against" extremist Brexitism.
    That was certainly part of it. but there was genuine Corbynmania.

    Corbyns speech at Tranmere Rovers is where it began. and transformed the campaign.
    I think the most salient fact was that Mrs May was a certainty but not likable enough to want to give her a landslide. I'm sure if there was a possibility of Corbyn winning voters would have been more circumspect
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,306
    HYUFD said:

    vik said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ToryJim said:

    Clearly Trudeau was massively unpopular and the twin effect of switching to Carney and the Trump mayhem has combined to boost the Liberal support. From what I can see the Conservatives have done well but the circumstances have allowed the Liberals to squeak through.

    There are dangers for both parties, the danger for Conservatives in Canada is overanalysing the situation. Poilievre was clearly on to something but if the party decides his approach needs sweeping change it could retard efforts for the next election. The danger for the Liberals is that squeezing out a species of victory in unique circumstances will leave them highly vulnerable to a very rapid backlash if the electorate see stuff happening that prompts some buyers remorse.

    I wonder if this is Canada's 1992.

    Win an election after replacing an unpopular leader/defeating an unpopular LOTO which leads to a shellacking at the following GE.
    It depends on the Conservatives.

    If they ditch Pierre & Maple MAGAism, and go with a sensible centrist as party leader (who stays far far away from Jordan Peterson), then it'll be a landslide to Conservatives.

    If, on the other hand, they become even more extreme right-wing, then it might be another close election.
    The Canadian Conservatives are currently on 41% of the vote, their highest voteshare since 1988, so hardly a massive rejection of Poilievre extremism but a vote that in normal circumstances would see Poilievre win and get a majority government.

    Only massive NDP tactical votes for the Liberals defeated him
    Tactical voting is a natural consequence of one party putting forward a controversial candidate. Poilievre's Trump sympathies were enough this election to make that the key factor, coming from a position where the Liberal government was deeply unpopular and due a spell in opposition.

    If parties don't want others to tactically vote against them, they need to be positioned accordingly.

    If the Canadian Conservatives had been anti-Trump from the start in the same way Merz was in Germany, then they would have won very comfortably today.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 948
    Casino_Royale said:

    Roger said:

    An embarrassment for Trump which is good. I'm a fan of Mark Carney. Full on anti Brexit which puts him in a different league to most current British politicians. Meanwhile I've just heard them say that Trump has the lowest opinion poll rating of any President at this stage in the last 80 years.

    Can you please not comment on, like, anything until all the results are in ?

    Some of us have money riding on this.
    Never stopped any commenting before...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,288
    a
    Casino_Royale said:

    Nigelb said:

    Drinking champagne could reduce risk of sudden cardiac arrest, study suggests
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/apr/29/drink-champagne-reduce-risk-sudden-cardiac-arrest-study-suggests

    Well, if I must.
    So Taittinger Blanc de Blanc? Though your chances of finding a drinkable, genuine ‘43 are basically zero.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,769
    Mexicanpete said:

    Roger said:

    Nigelb said:

    Drinking champagne could reduce risk of sudden cardiac arrest, study suggests
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/apr/29/drink-champagne-reduce-risk-sudden-cardiac-arrest-study-suggests

    Maybe we could get it on the national health
    By the time NHS procurement get involved a £15 bottle from Aldi will have cost the taxpayer a thousand pounds. It'll be like paracetamol. 37 pence for 16 in Home Bargains and a tenner to the NHS purchasing directly from big pharma.
    The NHS is extraordinarily good at negotiating drug prices: https://firstwordpharma.com/story/5802523 They pay about a third of what the same drugs cost in the US.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,306
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    From PPICIPM to POPPWAS in a couple of months.

    Did he hire Truss as a political strategist?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,497
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Oh Canada! With Trump and the power of Trump having been defeated, its time to listen to Carney. The previous US-led free trade world "is over". Instead of wazzocking around like Starmer trying to obsequiously crawl to defend this former world order we should ally with our brothers and sisters in Canada in building the new one.

    It's certainly reassuring to have him in the anti Trump pro civilised nations corner.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,750
    bondegezou said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Roger said:

    Nigelb said:

    Drinking champagne could reduce risk of sudden cardiac arrest, study suggests
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/apr/29/drink-champagne-reduce-risk-sudden-cardiac-arrest-study-suggests

    Maybe we could get it on the national health
    By the time NHS procurement get involved a £15 bottle from Aldi will have cost the taxpayer a thousand pounds. It'll be like paracetamol. 37 pence for 16 in Home Bargains and a tenner to the NHS purchasing directly from big pharma.
    The NHS is extraordinarily good at negotiating drug prices: https://firstwordpharma.com/story/5802523 They pay about a third of what the same drugs cost in the US.
    Yeah, the high cost of paracetamol to the NHS is the prescribing (pharmacist) fee, as I understand it.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,372
    Casino_Royale said:

    Roger said:

    An embarrassment for Trump which is good. I'm a fan of Mark Carney. Full on anti Brexit which puts him in a different league to most current British politicians. Meanwhile I've just heard them say that Trump has the lowest opinion poll rating of any President at this stage in the last 80 years.

    Can you please not comment on, like, anything until all the results are in ?

    Some of us have money riding on this.
    Are you now expecting a late win for the Cons after Roger's intervention?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,854
    JosiasJessop said:

    Gallowgate said:

    The West is still very divided and I am not sure, short of a major war, how it can be fixed.

    Destroy the Internet. ;)

    IMV a massive issue is people being sold simple 'solutions' to complex problems. We saw this with Brexit, where we were told all the ills of the country were down to the EU. Then we left, and the problems remained. Therefore many of the Brexiteers shout "It was done wrong!!!!", and move onto the next issue that's the cause of all the ills: immigration.

    They're simple answers that will make little difference to complex problems. But the nature of the Internet sells the simple soundbite-style solutions well, and complex solutions are hard to sell.

    Also, enemies can use the Internet to divide the public. Make much of nonsensical wedge issues to divide, often using the 'other' as a target. It's not your fault - it's *their* fault. Hate your fellow countryman, not us.
    People voted for Brexit for many reeasons - but I don't think it's particularly controversial to say that some people voted Brexit because of immigration. Which hasn't come down. So they are still quite strongly against immigration.

    And they're not against immigration because it's presented as a magic bullet to the country's ills. They're against it because we've had more immigration in the last 25 years than at any point, ever, in our island's history, in either relative or absolute terms - and there is no polity anywhere in the world, ever, who will look up and say 'ooh, look, lots of people with a different culture arriving! Brilliant!'
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,519
    JosiasJessop said:

    Gallowgate said:

    The West is still very divided and I am not sure, short of a major war, how it can be fixed.

    Destroy the Internet. ;)

    IMV a massive issue is people being sold simple 'solutions' to complex problems. We saw this with Brexit, where we were told all the ills of the country were down to the EU. Then we left, and the problems remained. Therefore many of the Brexiteers shout "It was done wrong!!!!", and move onto the next issue that's the cause of all the ills: immigration.

    They're simple answers that will make little difference to complex problems. But the nature of the Internet sells the simple soundbite-style solutions well, and complex solutions are hard to sell.

    Also, enemies can use the Internet to divide the public. Make much of nonsensical wedge issues to divide, often using the 'other' as a target. It's not your fault - it's *their* fault. Hate your fellow countryman, not us.
    Overly simple or lying solutions to complex issues long predate the internet.

    The whole socialist movement owes its existence to that, as do organised religion and plenty of other inane ideologies.

    As long as simple people have as many votes as the informed and the educated, you'll have a premium on superficial soundbites and inanities that don't pan out in practice.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,170
    edited 7:27AM
    JosiasJessop said:

    Gallowgate said:

    The West is still very divided and I am not sure, short of a major war, how it can be fixed.

    Destroy the Internet. ;)

    IMV a massive issue is people being sold simple 'solutions' to complex problems. We saw this with Brexit, where we were told all the ills of the country were down to the EU. Then we left, and the problems remained. Therefore many of the Brexiteers shout "It was done wrong!!!!", and move onto the next issue that's the cause of all the ills: immigration.

    They're simple answers that will make little difference to complex problems. But the nature of the Internet sells the simple soundbite-style solutions well, and complex solutions are hard to sell.

    Also, enemies can use the Internet to divide the public. Make much of nonsensical wedge issues to divide, often using the 'other' as a target. It's not your fault - it's *their* fault. Hate your fellow countryman, not us.
    The internet is still a net plus. The one thing we need to change is the use of algorithms on social media that drive engagement by encouraging strife and discord. I'd also ban online advertising.

    So, okay, two things.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,803
    (1/5)

    Farage I suspect will wisely keep himself away from Trump going forward.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,632
    Casino_Royale said:

    If just 10 extra seats had flipped Liberal to Conservative, then Poilievre would be PM today and it'd be a Conservative victory the media were talking about.

    Carney's victory is razer-thin, and it's almost certain Trump lost it for the Conservatives.

    I entirely expect the nuances of this to be lost in the media reporting afterwards.

    Such is their way. What a few months it has been for them all, what rage and joy some must feel at the changes in fortune.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,372
    edited 7:31AM
    bondegezou said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Roger said:

    Nigelb said:

    Drinking champagne could reduce risk of sudden cardiac arrest, study suggests
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/apr/29/drink-champagne-reduce-risk-sudden-cardiac-arrest-study-suggests

    Maybe we could get it on the national health
    By the time NHS procurement get involved a £15 bottle from Aldi will have cost the taxpayer a thousand pounds. It'll be like paracetamol. 37 pence for 16 in Home Bargains and a tenner to the NHS purchasing directly from big pharma.
    The NHS is extraordinarily good at negotiating drug prices: https://firstwordpharma.com/story/5802523 They pay about a third of what the same drugs cost in the US.
    When my late father was being delivered his weekly cocktail of cancer and Parkinson's drugs I checked out the cost of paracetamol to the NHS and it was absurdly expensive. I cancelled them and bought them myself from the supermarket instead. The cost to the NHS for otherwise over the counter drugs on prescription was outrageous.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,389
    JosiasJessop said:

    Gallowgate said:

    The West is still very divided and I am not sure, short of a major war, how it can be fixed.

    Destroy the Internet. ;)

    IMV a massive issue is people being sold simple 'solutions' to complex problems. We saw this with Brexit, where we were told all the ills of the country were down to the EU. Then we left, and the problems remained. Therefore many of the Brexiteers shout "It was done wrong!!!!", and move onto the next issue that's the cause of all the ills: immigration.

    They're simple answers that will make little difference to complex problems. But the nature of the Internet sells the simple soundbite-style solutions well, and complex solutions are hard to sell.

    Also, enemies can use the Internet to divide the public. Make much of nonsensical wedge issues to divide, often using the 'other' as a target. It's not your fault - it's *their* fault. Hate your fellow countryman, not us.
    Part of the trouble is that the simple problems have been solved. We generally agree now that peace is preferable to war, treating people as chattels is bad, and so on. All of those needed to be worked out, but ultimately they were simple.

    Now, we're left with the difficult problems, the ones with fiendish tradeoffs. What's the right balance of our prosperity vs. future pollution, or the rights of two different marginalised groups?

    They're difficult, which is why we don't have an agreed answer. Exactly the wrong problems to fit in social media.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,630
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    (1/5)

    Farage I suspect will wisely keep himself away from Trump going forward.

    With the state of Trump's polling, everybody will.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,160
    edited 7:34AM
    Ratters said:

    HYUFD said:

    vik said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ToryJim said:

    Clearly Trudeau was massively unpopular and the twin effect of switching to Carney and the Trump mayhem has combined to boost the Liberal support. From what I can see the Conservatives have done well but the circumstances have allowed the Liberals to squeak through.

    There are dangers for both parties, the danger for Conservatives in Canada is overanalysing the situation. Poilievre was clearly on to something but if the party decides his approach needs sweeping change it could retard efforts for the next election. The danger for the Liberals is that squeezing out a species of victory in unique circumstances will leave them highly vulnerable to a very rapid backlash if the electorate see stuff happening that prompts some buyers remorse.

    I wonder if this is Canada's 1992.

    Win an election after replacing an unpopular leader/defeating an unpopular LOTO which leads to a shellacking at the following GE.
    It depends on the Conservatives.

    If they ditch Pierre & Maple MAGAism, and go with a sensible centrist as party leader (who stays far far away from Jordan Peterson), then it'll be a landslide to Conservatives.

    If, on the other hand, they become even more extreme right-wing, then it might be another close election.
    The Canadian Conservatives are currently on 41% of the vote, their highest voteshare since 1988, so hardly a massive rejection of Poilievre extremism but a vote that in normal circumstances would see Poilievre win and get a majority government.

    Only massive NDP tactical votes for the Liberals defeated him
    Tactical voting is a natural consequence of one party putting forward a controversial candidate. Poilievre's Trump sympathies were enough this election to make that the key factor, coming from a position where the Liberal government was deeply unpopular and due a spell in opposition.

    If parties don't want others to tactically vote against them, they need to be positioned accordingly.

    If the Canadian Conservatives had been anti-Trump from the start in the same way Merz was in Germany, then they would have won very comfortably today.
    Poilievre was anti Trump's tariffs, anti 51st state and pro Zelensky. Policy wise he and the Conservatives were closer to Merz than Trump (the AfD in Germany and PPC in Canada are the real MAGA parties there) and Merz let us remember got less than 30% of the vote for the CDU even if still largest party and did not get a majority but has had to form another coalition with the SPD
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,372
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    (1/5)

    Farage I suspect will wisely keep himself away from Trump going forward.

    I doubt that Horse. He just won't be able to stay away. I doubt he sees Trump's unpopularity. Nigel's news sources all believe Trump to be doing a sterling job.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,292
    Cookie said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Gallowgate said:

    The West is still very divided and I am not sure, short of a major war, how it can be fixed.

    Destroy the Internet. ;)

    IMV a massive issue is people being sold simple 'solutions' to complex problems. We saw this with Brexit, where we were told all the ills of the country were down to the EU. Then we left, and the problems remained. Therefore many of the Brexiteers shout "It was done wrong!!!!", and move onto the next issue that's the cause of all the ills: immigration.

    They're simple answers that will make little difference to complex problems. But the nature of the Internet sells the simple soundbite-style solutions well, and complex solutions are hard to sell.

    Also, enemies can use the Internet to divide the public. Make much of nonsensical wedge issues to divide, often using the 'other' as a target. It's not your fault - it's *their* fault. Hate your fellow countryman, not us.
    People voted for Brexit for many reeasons - but I don't think it's particularly controversial to say that some people voted Brexit because of immigration. Which hasn't come down. So they are still quite strongly against immigration.

    And they're not against immigration because it's presented as a magic bullet to the country's ills. They're against it because we've had more immigration in the last 25 years than at any point, ever, in our island's history, in either relative or absolute terms - and there is no polity anywhere in the world, ever, who will look up and say 'ooh, look, lots of people with a different culture arriving! Brilliant!'
    The problem is most voters are for or against things on the basis of ceteris paribus. So yes, they are clearly against immigration, but are they against immigration if it leads to their grandparents care home being chronically understaffed, long waiting lists for that hip operation, and a weaker economy?

    Some will be, others won't. Once in power a government that cuts immigration dramatically (below trend level rather than Boris wave level) will have to face those realities and as they have made no mention of them will get the blame and face disillusionment, just as the Tories and Labour have found.
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