I have to say the Kirghiz people seem singularly unmoved by the unexpectedly tight results in the Maritimes. A definite lack of election buzz here in Bishkek. People are just wandering around, drinking coffee, yawning - it’s almost as if they don’t care
My guess? They’re faking indifference because it’s TOO exciting - like football fans unable to watch a penalty shoot out and pretending to do the dishes
F*ck off then? It's politicalbetting.com. And it's an election night.
Bro, it’s a joke. I’m mocking our geekiness - me very much included
I’m fascinated by the Canuck elex. I’m pointing out that 99.94% of humanity - esp in Central Asia - is not
I can never understand why the Conservatives do so well in that southern area of Quebec province where 99% speak French, especially around the Beauce constituency.
That’s good. Also, thank god the Canucks very sensibly have the lefties in red and the righties in blue
Why the F did America choose to be exceptional and have it the other way round, unlike every other country on earth. Even now when I see “red states” or “blue voters” I have to remind myself that means right wing states and left wing voters
I can never understand why the Conservatives do so well in that southern area of Quebec province where 99% speak French, especially around the Beauce constituency.
I haven't checked, but like there used to be Tartan Tories who voted SNP you can get Croissant Conservateurs who sometimes vote BQ and sometimes Conservative, especially if the candidate is French Canadian.
Katherine Swampy of the NDP is currently leading in Leduc-Wetaskiwin.
There's no electoral value in me sharing that with you lot; but I thought both her name and her riding name were notably weird and deserved more exposure.
Looks like it will firm up at 3 Conservative Gains in the Maritimes, and one Liberal Gain. Net Conservative Gain of 2.
I think that's exactly what the YouGov MRP predicted: +2 for the Cons in the Maritimes.
YouGov MRP looks good, but I wonder if the Liberals will just fall short of a majority.
I wouldn't be surprised to see 10-15 unexpected Conservative gains.
At Canadian general elections only one thing really matters: how the parties do in the Greater Toronto Area. I've watched lots of these elections where the whole narrative gets turned on its head by what happens there. The Liberals might sweep most of that area and then they win a big majority. What happens elsewhere isn't very important.
Early days, but looks like there will be a lot of turnover (in all directions) in Quebec.
Trump must be especially confusing for quebecois separatists. On the one hand there will be an urge to unite with all Canada against the feared southern foe, on the other hand it must alienate some against all anglophone politics
Looks like it will firm up at 3 Conservative Gains in the Maritimes, and one Liberal Gain. Net Conservative Gain of 2.
I think that's exactly what the YouGov MRP predicted: +2 for the Cons in the Maritimes.
YouGov MRP looks good, but I wonder if the Liberals will just fall short of a majority.
I wouldn't be surprised to see 10-15 unexpected Conservative gains.
At Canadian general elections only one thing really matters: how the parties do in the Greater Toronto Area. I've watched lots of these elections where the whole narrative gets turned on its head by what happens there. The Liberals might sweep most of that area and then they win a big majority. What happens elsewhere isn't very important.
Over half of all Canadians live in the Quebec City–Windsor Corridor.
Early days, but looks like there will be a lot of turnover (in all directions) in Quebec.
Trump must be especially confusing for quebecois separatists. On the one hand there will be an urge to unite with all Canada against the feared southern foe, on the other hand it must alienate some against all anglophone politics
Looking at the early numbers, the BQ is getting whupped, with both Conservatives and Liberals benefiting. (There's more Liberal benefit, but I think the Conservatives will pick up a seat or two.)
Looks like it will firm up at 3 Conservative Gains in the Maritimes, and one Liberal Gain. Net Conservative Gain of 2.
I think that's exactly what the YouGov MRP predicted: +2 for the Cons in the Maritimes.
YouGov MRP looks good, but I wonder if the Liberals will just fall short of a majority.
I wouldn't be surprised to see 10-15 unexpected Conservative gains.
At Canadian general elections only one thing really matters: how the parties do in the Greater Toronto Area. I've watched lots of these elections where the whole narrative gets turned on its head by what happens there. The Liberals might sweep most of that area and then they win a big majority. What happens elsewhere isn't very important.
Over half of all Canadians live in the Quebec City–Windsor Corridor.
Katherine Swampy of the NDP is currently leading in Leduc-Wetaskiwin.
There's no electoral value in me sharing that with you lot; but I thought both her name and her riding name were notably weird and deserved more exposure.
I expect the BQ to shed a few seats to the Liberals in the (very) greater Montreal area. The Conservatives may pick up a couple elsewhere.
Could I have found "Nunavut" on a map before this election? Probably not. But I might have gotten it on a multiple choice question. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nunavut
Ok laid off all my liability at 1.03, because I want to sleep. Only cost me £15.
I should be up just over £200, and another £35 if it's a Liberal minority. Will drop a tenner on Carleton I suspect, as PP won't lose his seat on these figures.
By the way, I only know two Canadian voters. They're both in a safe riding in Saskatchewan, and I think they both will vote for the losing Liberal candidate.
Not sure anybody is going to notice another 100 Indians when you are taking a million other immigrants.
Bloomberg has a very different take
My reflexive presumption is that Labour will have achieved the worst deal possible for the UK, especially for its poorer native workers
BUT we don’t know yet
Youa re certainly right to be sceptical. On the evidence so far they are about as good at the Art of the Deal as Trump. Although unlike Trump I am not sure they are exactly trying that hard.
CBC projecting a Liberal Govt, although whether minority or majority is not specified. Trump to Poilievre: drop dead. Now let's see what happens in Australia.
Not sure anybody is going to notice another 100 Indians when you are taking a million other immigrants.
Bloomberg has a very different take
My reflexive presumption is that Labour will have achieved the worst deal possible for the UK, especially for its poorer native workers
BUT we don’t know yet
Youa re certainly right to be sceptical. On the evidence so far they are about as good at the Art of the Deal as Trump. Although unlike Trump I am not sure they are exactly trying that hard.
They do try hard. They try hard to fuck over Britain and British people and the British interest: Every Single Time
CBC projecting a Liberal Govt, although whether minority or majority is not specified. Trump to Poilievre: drop dead. Now let's see what happens in Australia.
Dutton is another Trump minime, just like Poilievre. He will hopefully meet the same political fate.
Not sure anybody is going to notice another 100 Indians when you are taking a million other immigrants.
Bloomberg has a very different take
My reflexive presumption is that Labour will have achieved the worst deal possible for the UK, especially for its poorer native workers
BUT we don’t know yet
Youa re certainly right to be sceptical. On the evidence so far they are about as good at the Art of the Deal as Trump. Although unlike Trump I am not sure they are exactly trying that hard.
What was the Labour prediction after Blair opened the gates to Eastern Europe? We expect 11,000? In the end 1 million came
Given that Starmer is infinity times worse than Blair if Starmer’s predicting “100 Indians” that actually suggests 100,000,000 will arrive at Gatwick
Not sure anybody is going to notice another 100 Indians when you are taking a million other immigrants.
Bloomberg has a very different take
My reflexive presumption is that Labour will have achieved the worst deal possible for the UK, especially for its poorer native workers
BUT we don’t know yet
Youa re certainly right to be sceptical. On the evidence so far they are about as good at the Art of the Deal as Trump. Although unlike Trump I am not sure they are exactly trying that hard.
What was the Labour prediction after Blair opened the gates to Eastern Europe? We expect 11,000? In the end 1 million came
Given that Starmer is infinity times worse than Blair if Starmer’s predicting “100 Indians” that actually suggests 100,000,000 will arrive at Gatwick
Keith Vaz went to Stansted Airport on the first day and made jokes when only one person arrived.
With British Colombia still to come, I think it's highly likely that the Liberals outpoll the Conservatives - probably by 3 percentage points or more.
Even though I’m on the right I would prefer that outcome. Governments winning power while losing the popular vote always makes me faintly nauseous
That utter c*nt Trump is fucking up the new right across the world
Oh, he's almost certainly going to result in "woke" becoming more entrenched, because oppositionalism.
Certainly possible in the Anglosphere
However I believe it’s a delay rather than a diversion. The pendulum swing will come but Trump has likely set it back a few years. Stupid twat that he is
Don’t underestimate the appeal of Mark Carney who was the perfect candidate to bring this astonishing turnaround in the Libs fortunes .
Calm , charismatic and scrubs up well .
He leaves me cold. Don't understand his appeal at all.
People liked his calm manner and wanted someone with experience. Poilievre is a career politician who until recently was using Trumpian language , attacking the media and threatening to defund the CBC .
Not sure anybody is going to notice another 100 Indians when you are taking a million other immigrants.
Bloomberg has a very different take
My reflexive presumption is that Labour will have achieved the worst deal possible for the UK, especially for its poorer native workers
BUT we don’t know yet
Youa re certainly right to be sceptical. On the evidence so far they are about as good at the Art of the Deal as Trump. Although unlike Trump I am not sure they are exactly trying that hard.
What was the Labour prediction after Blair opened the gates to Eastern Europe? We expect 11,000? In the end 1 million came
Given that Starmer is infinity times worse than Blair if Starmer’s predicting “100 Indians” that actually suggests 100,000,000 will arrive at Gatwick
Keith Vaz went to Stansted Airport on the first day and made jokes when only one person arrived.
Yes I remember
Then incredibly they did the same for Bulgaria and Romania. Oh, only a few will come. Let’s make jokes at airports etc
The 338 site was saying a 65% chance of a Liberal majority just before voting ended, but now it's on a knife-edge. So looks as if the polls and prediction pages did overestimate the Liberals a bit.
The 338 site was saying a 65% chance of a Liberal majority just before voting ended, but now it's on a knife-edge. So looks as if the polls and prediction pages did overestimate the Liberals a bit.
Yep, it's going to be super close whether they make it.
The 338 site was saying a 65% chance of a Liberal majority just before voting ended, but now it's on a knife-edge. So looks as if the polls and prediction pages did overestimate the Liberals a bit.
Yep, it's going to be super close whether they make it.
My gut right now is that they fall just short (say 170 seats), but they could easily end up on 175 or 165.
Bloc Quebecois looking like they're hanging on with very low vote shares in close races. I thought they'd have fewer than 20 seats, and it looks like they'll be more like 25.
Most of British Colombia still to come, which is the weakest area for the Conservatives vote share-wise. (Still a bunch of Saskatchewan and Alberta, mind, where they will be very strong.)
I'm going to bed, folks. I don't know whether the Libs will get most votes, but I'm less panicky than what I was. I'll find out in the morning. Nighty-night, don't let the bed bugs bite.
Worth noting that in the Maritimes, the last votes in the each Riding (which were the early votes) seemed to boost the Liberal share meaningfully.
St Margarets, for example, was neck-and-neck at 60% counted... and I just looked now and it's a 10 point Liberal lead.
And Terra Nova - The Peninsulas was called for the Conservatives. But now looks like it might flip, with the last few polling places all giving big boosts to the Liberals.
Worth noting that in the Maritimes, the last votes in the each Riding (which were the early votes) seemed to boost the Liberal share meaningfully.
St Margarets, for example, was neck-and-neck at 60% counted... and I just looked now and it's a 10 point Liberal lead.
And Terra Nova - The Peninsulas was called for the Conservatives. But now looks like it might flip, with the last few polling places all giving big boosts to the Liberals.
Interesting. The popular vote is going to be very close again because Alberta hasn't reported that many votes.
Worth noting that in the Maritimes, the last votes in the each Riding (which were the early votes) seemed to boost the Liberal share meaningfully.
St Margarets, for example, was neck-and-neck at 60% counted... and I just looked now and it's a 10 point Liberal lead.
And Terra Nova - The Peninsulas was called for the Conservatives. But now looks like it might flip, with the last few polling places all giving big boosts to the Liberals.
Interesting. The popular vote is going to be very close again because Alberta hasn't reported that many votes.
While that's true of Alberta, it's also true of British Colombia, which is the Conservatives weakest province.
Question for the brains trust? How long before the final vote count is complete? Hours or Days?
It mostly gets done within about 10 hours, usually, going from previous elections as I recall.
Showing the Americans have no excuse.
The problem is that there are at least 50 different things that Americas (particularly Californians) are voting for at any time. There's Councilmen, and Assembymen, and Senators, and Attorney Generals, and Secretary of States, and Governors, and Congressmen, and then there are tens of ballot propositions.
Comments
If you see a better one, share it.
I’m fascinated by the Canuck elex. I’m pointing out that 99.94% of humanity - esp in Central Asia - is not
Currently, that order is reversed.
That’s good. Also, thank god the Canucks very sensibly have the lefties in red and the righties in blue
Why the F did America choose to be exceptional and have it the other way round, unlike every other country on earth. Even now when I see “red states” or “blue voters” I have to remind myself that means right wing states and left wing voters
I wouldn't be surprised to see 10-15 unexpected Conservative gains.
More than £500m wiped off high street retailer’s market value amid disruptions"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/04/28/almost-800m-wiped-ms-online-orders-halted-fourth-day/
There's no electoral value in me sharing that with you lot; but I thought both her name and her riding name were notably weird and deserved more exposure.
IF this is true it’s another paragraph in Labour’s loooooooooong suicide note
Could I have found "Nunavut" on a map before this election? Probably not. But I might have gotten it on a multiple choice question. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nunavut
I should be up just over £200, and another £35 if it's a Liberal minority. Will drop a tenner on Carleton I suspect, as PP won't lose his seat on these figures.
"The new rules will lead to around 100 new visas for Indian workers each year, a U.K. official told POLITICO."
https://www.politico.eu/article/india-visa-new-rules-pave-way-uk-trade-deal/
Not sure anybody is going to notice another 100 Indians when you are taking a million other immigrants.
My reflexive presumption is that Labour will have achieved the worst deal possible for the UK, especially for its poorer native workers
BUT we don’t know yet
The LPC projected to win .
That utter c*nt Trump is fucking up the new right across the world
Calm , charismatic and scrubs up well .
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-demands-investigations-negative-approval-rating-polls-2064949
Given that Starmer is infinity times worse than Blair if Starmer’s predicting “100 Indians” that actually suggests 100,000,000 will arrive at Gatwick
And it will annoy the right wing media here so even more enjoyable.
Not Trudeau.
Seems vaguely competent.
However I believe it’s a delay rather than a diversion. The pendulum swing will come but Trump has likely set it back a few years. Stupid twat that he is
Then incredibly they did the same for Bulgaria and Romania. Oh, only a few will come. Let’s make jokes at airports etc
100,000s came
Lib 150
Con 128
BQ 22
NDP 7
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJL-Kpt6lUw
152
129
22
7
Points to about 170 for the Libs.
Liberal
50%
Conservative
38.5%
Bloc Québécois
4.9%
New Democrat
4.4%
Green
1%
Lib 44.4%
Con 40.8%
https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/federal/2025/results/#/
Lots of votes in Alberta still to be counted.
Lib 157
Con 144
https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/federal/2025/results/#/
Lib 43.6%
Con 41.1%
https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/federal/2025/results/#/
Lib 156
Con 146
Lib 156
Con 148
St Margarets, for example, was neck-and-neck at 60% counted... and I just looked now and it's a 10 point Liberal lead.
And Terra Nova - The Peninsulas was called for the Conservatives. But now looks like it might flip, with the last few polling places all giving big boosts to the Liberals.
Con 152
Personally, I suspect not, but it's certainly *very* close.
Now 155-151
Betfair: Con were 1,000 - and over £200 matched at 1,000!
Con 115
Lib 110
BQ 20
NDP 1
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vDNmB72Bg0Y