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As we wait for the first result – politicalbetting.com

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  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,102
    edited April 28
    vik said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Do we get an exit poll once all the polls have closed?

    I was hoping so, but doesn't look like it.
    It's because the polls have not closed in Western Canada.
    But all 8 people living there have voted already, so couldn’t they close shop now and not hold this up? Some of us have an alarm going off in just 4 hours and I have a big bet on Conservative PV win.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,517
    Bloc Quebcois still stuck on 0 votes.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,102
    edited 12:04AM
    carnforth said:

    Official site elections.ca has crashed.

    Blame the weather.

    Pain in Spain as it’s mostly off the Mains.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,933
    edited 12:01AM
    Cookie said:

    While we're waiting, thoughts on Runcorn. I habe several family members in tge constituency. Some are making Reform-y noises. But the ones making Reform-y noises are the ones I think least likely to vote, while the ones making unreform-y noises are the most likely to. I still think Lab hold.

    Runcorn wouldn't have been the first place I'd put down as having Reform vibes. Based on nothing whatsoever other than knowing the place vaguely some 30 years ago, I'm going to agree with you.

    In the Flatlands, though, I think there's a bit of panic in the ruling (Labour) party. We've even had the socialist worker types going round with leaflets saying "Don't vote for the racists" and nothing much else.

    I expect if Reform do win they will find out on Day 1 that there's basically no money except that ring-fenced for legally required services. They'll then have nothing to do except in-fighting, which they do at least seem to be competent at.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 937
    First seat called by CBC - Libs hold Labrador.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,517
    Popular vote gap now down below 2% - 48.0% v 46.3%
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,252
    Andy_JS said:

    Betfair Exchange was 5 to 6 for Tories most seats until 30 minutes ago, now aroud 3 to 4.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.241109113

    The real news is that some liquidity has entered the Betfair market. That move you noted probably took about a tenner while people stayed out until the first news trickled through.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,102

    First seat called by CBC - Libs hold Labrador.

    Woof.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,517
    rcs1000 said:

    Popular vote gap now down below 2% - 48.0% v 46.3%

    Now Con 47.3%, Lib 46.9%
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,517
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Popular vote gap now down below 2% - 48.0% v 46.3%

    Now Con 47.3%, Lib 46.9%
    Con 47.1%, Lib 47.0%
  • vikvik Posts: 280
    edited 12:03AM

    First seat called by CBC - Libs hold Labrador.

    NDP getting absolutely crushed so far, in Labrador, from 24% last election to 7% now.

    Conservatives at almost the same 30%.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,517
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Popular vote gap now down below 2% - 48.0% v 46.3%

    Now Con 47.3%, Lib 46.9%
    Con 47.1%, Lib 47.0%
    Libs have now pulled ahead: 48.8% v 45.4%
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,517
    vik said:

    First seat called by CBC - Libs hold Labrador.

    NDP getting absolutely crushed so far, in Labrador, from 24% last election to 7% now.

    Conservatives at almost the same 30%.
    You think they're doing badly? The BQ hasn't managed a single vote yet.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,517
    Central Newfoundland has been called for the Conservatives. This is a seat they won by just 1% over the Libs in 2021, so getting it called so early is a big positive sign for them.
  • vikvik Posts: 280
    rcs1000 said:

    vik said:

    First seat called by CBC - Libs hold Labrador.

    NDP getting absolutely crushed so far, in Labrador, from 24% last election to 7% now.

    Conservatives at almost the same 30%.
    You think they're doing badly? The BQ hasn't managed a single vote yet.
    Even Yves Blanchet didn't vote for himself. :)
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,846

    Cookie said:

    While we're waiting, thoughts on Runcorn. I habe several family members in tge constituency. Some are making Reform-y noises. But the ones making Reform-y noises are the ones I think least likely to vote, while the ones making unreform-y noises are the most likely to. I still think Lab hold.

    Runcorn wouldn't have been the first place I'd put down as having Reform vibes. Based on nothing whatsoever other than knowing the place vaguely some 30 years ago, I'm going to agree with you.

    In the Flatlands, though, I think there's a bit of panic in the ruling (Labour) party. We've even had the socialist worker types going round with leaflets saying "Don't vote for the racists" and nothing much else.

    I expect if Reform do win they will find out on Day 1 that there's basically no money except that ring-fenced for legally required services. They'll then have nothing to do except in-fighting, which they do at least seem to be competent at.
    I think there is also alarm in Lab in much of GM, particularly in the north eaatern boroughs (i.e. Tameside/Oldham/Rochdale). Fortunately for them, there are no elections this year - remains to be seen in Reform can maintain their momentum through to May 2026.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,748
    rcs1000 said:

    Central Newfoundland has been called for the Conservatives. This is a seat they won by just 1% over the Libs in 2021, so getting it called so early is a big positive sign for them.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Newfoundland_(electoral_district)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,517
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Popular vote gap now down below 2% - 48.0% v 46.3%

    Now Con 47.3%, Lib 46.9%
    Con 47.1%, Lib 47.0%
    Libs have now pulled ahead: 48.8% v 45.4%
    Gap remaining pretty constant: now 48.9% v 45.5%.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,517
    carnforth said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Central Newfoundland has been called for the Conservatives. This is a seat they won by just 1% over the Libs in 2021, so getting it called so early is a big positive sign for them.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Newfoundland_(electoral_district)
    Wow - that seat has been on quite a journey.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,748
    rcs1000 said:

    carnforth said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Central Newfoundland has been called for the Conservatives. This is a seat they won by just 1% over the Libs in 2021, so getting it called so early is a big positive sign for them.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Newfoundland_(electoral_district)
    Wow - that seat has been on quite a journey.
    Also quite the variety of churches: "86.3% Christian (19% Catholic, 17.5% Pentecostal and other Charismatic, 17% Anglican, 14.6% Methodist and Wesleyan, 12.6% United Church)"
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,367
    Betfair Exchange's page on for the Canadian election seems to be down for me. Anyone else?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,981
    Well this is a novelty. The first time I’ve ever paid meaningful attention to a Canadian election.

    And I’m in the ideal time zone for it. Sitting outside on a balmy evening with a lager at Due in Chicago, waiting for a deep dish pizza and being waited on and regaled by the larger than life original founder.



    Last time I was here was in June 2016, a few days before the fateful referendum. I was with a client who was a very good travel companion but also a big Brexiteer and over a beer on an equally balmy evening overlooking the huge and unsightly Trump tower (even he wasn’t a fan) he explained how it was all about identity and to him America was much more familiar and like home than European countries.
  • vikvik Posts: 280
    rcs1000 said:

    Central Newfoundland has been called for the Conservatives. This is a seat they won by just 1% over the Libs in 2021, so getting it called so early is a big positive sign for them.

    The CBC website hasn't called it yet.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,367
    If the Conservatives win the popular vote and lose the election, it'll be 3 elections in a row with that scenario.
  • vikvik Posts: 280
    Andy_JS said:

    Betfair Exchange's page on for the Canadian election seems to be down for me. Anyone else?

    It's working for me.

    Right now, its Libs 1.6, Cons 2.44
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,869
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Popular vote gap now down below 2% - 48.0% v 46.3%

    Now Con 47.3%, Lib 46.9%
    Con 47.1%, Lib 47.0%
    Libs have now pulled ahead: 48.8% v 45.4%
    Gap remaining pretty constant: now 48.9% v 45.5%.
    Looks like the Liberals have it?

    Lots of lessons for Nige (and to a lesser extent, Kemi) in this...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,367
    TimS said:

    Well this is a novelty. The first time I’ve ever paid meaningful attention to a Canadian election.

    And I’m in the ideal time zone for it. Sitting outside on a balmy evening with a lager at Due in Chicago, waiting for a deep dish pizza and being waited on and regaled by the larger than life original founder.



    Last time I was here was in June 2016, a few days before the fateful referendum. I was with a client who was a very good travel companion but also a big Brexiteer and over a beer on an equally balmy evening overlooking the huge and unsightly Trump tower (even he wasn’t a fan) he explained how it was all about identity and to him America was much more familiar and like home than European countries.

    I had a vague idea you were with us for previous Canadian election nights, but I must be mis-remembering.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,517
    It's very hard to get a feel for how the parties are doing: at the top level, the Liberals have opened up quite a lead - 50 v 44 - but it's only 1% of polling places reporting, and it's only the Maritimes.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,981
    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Popular vote gap now down below 2% - 48.0% v 46.3%

    Now Con 47.3%, Lib 46.9%
    Con 47.1%, Lib 47.0%
    Libs have now pulled ahead: 48.8% v 45.4%
    Gap remaining pretty constant: now 48.9% v 45.5%.
    Looks like the Liberals have it?

    Lots of lessons for Nige (and to a lesser extent, Kemi) in this...
    I think that’s fairly meaningless at this stage. Not converted into national equivalent vote.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,517
    Most of Canada doesn't see polls close until 630pm Pacific (230am UK).
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,517
    vik said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Central Newfoundland has been called for the Conservatives. This is a seat they won by just 1% over the Libs in 2021, so getting it called so early is a big positive sign for them.

    The CBC website hasn't called it yet.
    Globe & Mail has. And the Cons are at 59.8%, with about 40% reported. So, it might be a little premature, but I suspect not.

    FWIW, the seat has swung very heavily away from the Liberals over the last 15 years: I don't know why.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,981
    Andy_JS said:

    TimS said:

    Well this is a novelty. The first time I’ve ever paid meaningful attention to a Canadian election.

    And I’m in the ideal time zone for it. Sitting outside on a balmy evening with a lager at Due in Chicago, waiting for a deep dish pizza and being waited on and regaled by the larger than life original founder.



    Last time I was here was in June 2016, a few days before the fateful referendum. I was with a client who was a very good travel companion but also a big Brexiteer and over a beer on an equally balmy evening overlooking the huge and unsightly Trump tower (even he wasn’t a fan) he explained how it was all about identity and to him America was much more familiar and like home than European countries.

    I had a vague idea you were with us for previous Canadian election nights, but I must be mis-remembering.
    Maybe that was the much more legendary, s-less, “Tim”
  • vikvik Posts: 280
    rcs1000 said:

    vik said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Central Newfoundland has been called for the Conservatives. This is a seat they won by just 1% over the Libs in 2021, so getting it called so early is a big positive sign for them.

    The CBC website hasn't called it yet.
    Globe & Mail has. And the Cons are at 59.8%, with about 40% reported. So, it might be a little premature, but I suspect not.

    FWIW, the seat has swung very heavily away from the Liberals over the last 15 years: I don't know why.
    Yeah, CBC has called it now for the Cons.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,496
    edited 12:25AM
    TimS said:

    Well this is a novelty. The first time I’ve ever paid meaningful attention to a Canadian election.

    And I’m in the ideal time zone for it. Sitting outside on a balmy evening with a lager at Due in Chicago, waiting for a deep dish pizza and being waited on and regaled by the larger than life original founder.



    Last time I was here was in June 2016, a few days before the fateful referendum. I was with a client who was a very good travel companion but also a big Brexiteer and over a beer on an equally balmy evening overlooking the huge and unsightly Trump tower (even he wasn’t a fan) he explained how it was all about identity and to him America was much more familiar and like home than European countries.

    Great City but I'd have struggled with a travel companion like that. Which hotel are you staying at?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,480
    rcs1000 said:

    It's very hard to get a feel for how the parties are doing: at the top level, the Liberals have opened up quite a lead - 50 v 44 - but it's only 1% of polling places reporting, and it's only the Maritimes.

    At present, I'm not especially worried.

    The Conservatives currently look (right now) like making about two gains in the Maritimes from the Liberals compared to 2021, both in rural areas. That was three a minute ago. It's changing as more polling stations report.

    The NDP vote is collapsing to the Liberals in line with the polls, putting them ahead in the PV.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,367
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,480
    Andy_JS said:
    That's an overreaction.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,981
    rcs1000 said:

    It's very hard to get a feel for how the parties are doing: at the top level, the Liberals have opened up quite a lead - 50 v 44 - but it's only 1% of polling places reporting, and it's only the Maritimes.

    Anyone done a holiday there? I quite fancy doing a bit of a road and ferry trip, starting in Newfoundland and taking in NS, Prince Edward Is and New Brunswick then heading into upland Quebec. I always wanted to visit that weird circular Quebecois lake (lake Manicouagan according to Google maps).
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,367
    Long Range Mountains is being reported as a Con gain from Lib.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,517
    Interestingly, the Liberals seem to be doing best where the NDP was strong before. Cape Spear has been called for the Liberals, and this is a seat where the NDP were second with 23% of the vote last time around. That vote has disappeared, they've dropped to just 6% (!), with the Liberals jumping from 55% to 65%.

    That, I think, is a reason to expect that Carney will probably be Prime Minister after the election. Basically, the NDP vote is going en mass to the Liberals, and there are a lot of Ridings where that will push the Liberals over the top.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,517
    First seat to change hands: it looks like the Conservatives have taken Long Range Mountains from the Liberals. No big NDP vote to squeeze left the Liberals flat while the Conservative vote increased.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,277
    Question for the brains trust? How long before the final vote count is complete? Hours or Days?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,480
    rcs1000 said:

    Interestingly, the Liberals seem to be doing best where the NDP was strong before. Cape Spear has been called for the Liberals, and this is a seat where the NDP were second with 23% of the vote last time around. That vote has disappeared, they've dropped to just 6% (!), with the Liberals jumping from 55% to 65%.

    That, I think, is a reason to expect that Carney will probably be Prime Minister after the election. Basically, the NDP vote is going en mass to the Liberals, and there are a lot of Ridings where that will push the Liberals over the top.

    Yes, that's how I see it.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,367
    Tories leading in Madawaska—Restigouche which went 52% Liberal, 28% Conservative last time. Only 25/186 reporting though.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,480
    Andy_JS said:

    Long Range Mountains is being reported as a Con gain from Lib.

    That's one of the two. That seat has been swinging to the Conservatives over the last few elections.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,367
    DM_Andy said:

    Question for the brains trust? How long before the final vote count is complete? Hours or Days?

    It mostly gets done within about 10 hours, usually, going from previous elections as I recall.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,981
    Roger said:

    TimS said:

    Well this is a novelty. The first time I’ve ever paid meaningful attention to a Canadian election.

    And I’m in the ideal time zone for it. Sitting outside on a balmy evening with a lager at Due in Chicago, waiting for a deep dish pizza and being waited on and regaled by the larger than life original founder.



    Last time I was here was in June 2016, a few days before the fateful referendum. I was with a client who was a very good travel companion but also a big Brexiteer and over a beer on an equally balmy evening overlooking the huge and unsightly Trump tower (even he wasn’t a fan) he explained how it was all about identity and to him America was much more familiar and like home than European countries.

    Great City but I'd have struggled with a travel companion like that. Which hotel are you staying at?
    The “Londonhouse” on East Wacker. It’s ok. Very central. Better than my last 2 visits.

    For such a huge city it has a very compact core. Very walkable, which is perhaps why the people are weirdly thin, like New Yorkers. They look practically European. Perhaps that’s just because the Europeans have got fatter. Like the cars: they're mostly driving what I’d describe as European style cars. But we’ve all embraced the SUV style in the last decade so the gap is smaller.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,480
    Andy_JS said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Question for the brains trust? How long before the final vote count is complete? Hours or Days?

    It mostly gets done within about 10 hours, usually, going from previous elections as I recall.
    Showing the Americans have no excuse.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,480
    Andy_JS said:

    Tories leading in Madawaska—Restigouche which went 52% Liberal, 28% Conservative last time. Only 25/186 reporting though.

    Yes, we have to be careful as we don't know if early polling stations are statistically representative of the seat.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,517
    St Margarets in Nova Scotia looks like it might be the first Con to Liberal result. It's neck and neck there right now (47.3 v 47.6), but the collapse of the NDP from 20% to 2% could well hand it to the Libs.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,981
    rcs1000 said:

    Interestingly, the Liberals seem to be doing best where the NDP was strong before. Cape Spear has been called for the Liberals, and this is a seat where the NDP were second with 23% of the vote last time around. That vote has disappeared, they've dropped to just 6% (!), with the Liberals jumping from 55% to 65%.

    That, I think, is a reason to expect that Carney will probably be Prime Minister after the election. Basically, the NDP vote is going en mass to the Liberals, and there are a lot of Ridings where that will push the Liberals over the top.

    So this is classic small party squeeze. Liberals doing to NDP (and BQ) what Cameron did to the Lib Dems in 2015 and Corbyn and May did to everyone in 2017.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,517

    Andy_JS said:

    Tories leading in Madawaska—Restigouche which went 52% Liberal, 28% Conservative last time. Only 25/186 reporting though.

    Yes, we have to be careful as we don't know if early polling stations are statistically representative of the seat.
    Particularly as polling stations are range from 10s of votes to 1,000s.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,517
    rcs1000 said:

    St Margarets in Nova Scotia looks like it might be the first Con to Liberal result. It's neck and neck there right now (47.3 v 47.6), but the collapse of the NDP from 20% to 2% could well hand it to the Libs.

    The Liberal candidate, who is leading, has the most fabulous name: Jessica Fancy-Landry
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,480
    rcs1000 said:

    First seat to change hands: it looks like the Conservatives have taken Long Range Mountains from the Liberals. No big NDP vote to squeeze left the Liberals flat while the Conservative vote increased.

    Which we should expect. Conservative polling is up from c.32-33% last time to c. 39-40% this time.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,981
    edited 12:39AM
    This is what will happen to the Greens and Gaza independents in 2029 if it looks like a Reform-Tory pact could kick Labour out.

    The Lib Dems have shielded themselves from this to an extent (as have Plaid - the SNP dynamic is a bit different) by being geographically concentrated.
  • vikvik Posts: 280
    rcs1000 said:

    Interestingly, the Liberals seem to be doing best where the NDP was strong before. Cape Spear has been called for the Liberals, and this is a seat where the NDP were second with 23% of the vote last time around. That vote has disappeared, they've dropped to just 6% (!), with the Liberals jumping from 55% to 65%.

    That, I think, is a reason to expect that Carney will probably be Prime Minister after the election. Basically, the NDP vote is going en mass to the Liberals, and there are a lot of Ridings where that will push the Liberals over the top.

    Yes, and that's also consistent with the overall vote so far.

    Cons are up significantly, from 34% to 44%, but Libs are also up significantly from 33% to 50%, with both the NDP getting decimated, from 18% to 4%.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,517

    rcs1000 said:

    First seat to change hands: it looks like the Conservatives have taken Long Range Mountains from the Liberals. No big NDP vote to squeeze left the Liberals flat while the Conservative vote increased.

    Which we should expect. Conservative polling is up from c.32-33% last time to c. 39-40% this time.
    It looks like the Liberals are winning where there is an NDP vote to squeeze, and the Conservatives are winning where there isn't.

  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,748
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    St Margarets in Nova Scotia looks like it might be the first Con to Liberal result. It's neck and neck there right now (47.3 v 47.6), but the collapse of the NDP from 20% to 2% could well hand it to the Libs.

    The Liberal candidate, who is leading, has the most fabulous name: Jessica Fancy-Landry
    Murder She Overwrote?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,338
    Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj is a federal electoral district in Quebec, Canada. I am not pronouncing that, even at gunpoint

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,517
    I think there's going to be quite a lot of seat turnover. Seats the Liberals won in two horse races against the Conservatives are flipping one way, while seats where the NDP had a big vote share are flipping in the other direction.
  • vikvik Posts: 280

    Andy_JS said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Question for the brains trust? How long before the final vote count is complete? Hours or Days?

    It mostly gets done within about 10 hours, usually, going from previous elections as I recall.
    Showing the Americans have no excuse.
    It's because California counts postal votes as long as they are mailed by election day.

    Australia is the same. Postal votes have to be mailed by election day, and are counted as long as they are received within 2 weeks after election day.

    Personally, I think the Californian/Australian system is more fair because it allows postal voters to take into account all campaign developments until the last day, before they cast their vote.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,480
    rcs1000 said:

    St Margarets in Nova Scotia looks like it might be the first Con to Liberal result. It's neck and neck there right now (47.3 v 47.6), but the collapse of the NDP from 20% to 2% could well hand it to the Libs.

    I've been watching that fluctuate for some time. Very interesting.

    We might be able to get ahead of the curve by looking at every seat where the NDP's are squeezable, versus where the Conservatives/Liberals are close with little to squeeze - especially in English Canada.

    In the former, we might expect a Liberal Gain. In the latter, a Conservative one. But there are more of the former.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,338
    edited 12:47AM
    I'm looking at the CBC coverage. Apart from the usual stupid Star Trek set design, the coverage is really good: calm, the graphics are clear, there's none of the performative gubbins of the US. I approve.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,517

    Andy_JS said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Question for the brains trust? How long before the final vote count is complete? Hours or Days?

    It mostly gets done within about 10 hours, usually, going from previous elections as I recall.
    Showing the Americans have no excuse.
    The problem is that there are at least 50 different things that Americas (particularly Californians) are voting for at any time. There's Councilmen, and Assembymen, and Senators, and Attorney Generals, and Secretary of States, and Governors, and Congressmen, and then there are tens of ballot propositions.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,367
    St John's East — safe Liberal seat in Newfoundland, Conservatives are on 36% compared to 18% last time, with 60/197 declared.

    https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/federal/2025/results/#/
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,367
    edited 12:52AM

    Andy_JS said:

    Tories leading in Madawaska—Restigouche which went 52% Liberal, 28% Conservative last time. Only 25/186 reporting though.

    Yes, we have to be careful as we don't know if early polling stations are statistically representative of the seat.
    It wouldn't be that difficult for them to compare like with like as the results come in, since the data is published down to the local neighbourhood areas at each election. But they don't for some reason.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 937
    Early days, ready for egg on face etc, but this has an overall feel to me of the outcome being a Liberal minority government.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,367

    Early days, ready for egg on face etc, but this has an overall feel to me of the outcome being a Liberal minority government.

    I never believed the EKOS polls giving the Liberals a substantial lead in the popular vote.
  • SagandSagand Posts: 39
    The results so far aren't out of line with the YouGov MRP which had the losses Lib - > Cons in Newfoundland but an overall Lib majority, still a long way to go.

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/52070-final-yougov-mrp-for-2025-canadian-federal-election-liberals-likely-to-win-majority-poll
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,480
    On these numbers, in the crucial province of Ontario, and subject to boundary changes: if I were a Conservative, I'd be worried about the Liberals taking Niagara Falls, Oshawa, and Peterborough. London—Fanshawe could also go Liberal from NDP on a collapse.

    If I were a Liberal, the Conservatives taking Vaughan—Woodbridge, Richmond Hill South, Newmarket—Aurora, Kitchener—Conestoga, Burlington, Mississauga—Lakeshore and maybe Oakville.

    But that churn still leaves total seats for each party about the same as last time. A few Conservative gains.

    Possible another Liberal minority.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,338

    Early days, ready for egg on face etc, but this has an overall feel to me of the outcome being a Liberal minority government.

    It's not looking good for my £20 on a Lib most votes. All the mood music is Libs underperforming.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,367
    Elections Canada site still down.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,480

    Early days, ready for egg on face etc, but this has an overall feel to me of the outcome being a Liberal minority government.

    Yes. I put a tenner on at 7/2. Wish I'd put more down now.

    I think PP will safely hold his seat, which means my 14/1 bet there won't look quite so clever in the morning.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,367
    edited 1:00AM
    viewcode said:

    Early days, ready for egg on face etc, but this has an overall feel to me of the outcome being a Liberal minority government.

    It's not looking good for my £20 on a Lib most votes. All the mood music is Libs underperforming.
    10 years in office is a long time. The media went overboard with the change in leader imo. The sort of thing the politically-obsessed are interested in, but not so much ordinary voters.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,480
    Andy_JS said:

    Early days, ready for egg on face etc, but this has an overall feel to me of the outcome being a Liberal minority government.

    I never believed the EKOS polls giving the Liberals a substantial lead in the popular vote.
    What we might be looking at is the Conservatives make some credible gains, and win the popular vote (just), but there's still a Liberal minority government.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,496
    edited 1:04AM
    TimS said:

    Roger said:

    TimS said:

    Well this is a novelty. The first time I’ve ever paid meaningful attention to a Canadian election.

    And I’m in the ideal time zone for it. Sitting outside on a balmy evening with a lager at Due in Chicago, waiting for a deep dish pizza and being waited on and regaled by the larger than life original founder.



    Last time I was here was in June 2016, a few days before the fateful referendum. I was with a client who was a very good travel companion but also a big Brexiteer and over a beer on an equally balmy evening overlooking the huge and unsightly Trump tower (even he wasn’t a fan) he explained how it was all about identity and to him America was much more familiar and like home than European countries.

    Great City but I'd have struggled with a travel companion like that. Which hotel are you staying at?
    The “Londonhouse” on East Wacker. It’s ok. Very central. Better than my last 2 visits.

    For such a huge city it has a very compact core. Very walkable, which is perhaps why the people are weirdly thin, like New Yorkers. They look practically European. Perhaps that’s just because the Europeans have got fatter. Like the cars: they're mostly driving what I’d describe as European style cars. But we’ve all embraced the SUV style in the last decade so the gap is smaller.
    I always stayed at the Radisson which had everything and the restaurant my New york producer liked best was Maggiano's. As you know New Yorkers are the most fussy eaters so going to the same place saved time going through every ingredient.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,480
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Question for the brains trust? How long before the final vote count is complete? Hours or Days?

    It mostly gets done within about 10 hours, usually, going from previous elections as I recall.
    Showing the Americans have no excuse.
    The problem is that there are at least 50 different things that Americas (particularly Californians) are voting for at any time. There's Councilmen, and Assembymen, and Senators, and Attorney Generals, and Secretary of States, and Governors, and Congressmen, and then there are tens of ballot propositions.
    Separate the ballots and do the Presidency first in separate box.

    All the peripheral bullshit can wait.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,496
    Looks a bit knife edge if you are listening to the commentary
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,480
    rcs1000 said:

    I think there's going to be quite a lot of seat turnover. Seats the Liberals won in two horse races against the Conservatives are flipping one way, while seats where the NDP had a big vote share are flipping in the other direction.

    It will be interesting to see Quebec. What happens to the BQ is crucial.

    There isn't much NDP to squeeze for the Liberals there.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,517

    Andy_JS said:

    Early days, ready for egg on face etc, but this has an overall feel to me of the outcome being a Liberal minority government.

    I never believed the EKOS polls giving the Liberals a substantial lead in the popular vote.
    What we might be looking at is the Conservatives make some credible gains, and win the popular vote (just), but there's still a Liberal minority government.
    Given the collapse of the NDP, I simply can't see a path to a Conservative government.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,367
    93% of votes so far going to the 2 main parties.

    https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/federal/2025/results/#/
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,480
    Looks like Jessica Fancy-Pants might grab South Shore-St. Margarets. 149/231 polls reporting. Leads by 427 votes.

    Madawaska-Restigouche leaning back Liberal. Only half in (84/186 polls) but the Liberal French dude with the long name leads by 1,267 votes.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,517

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Question for the brains trust? How long before the final vote count is complete? Hours or Days?

    It mostly gets done within about 10 hours, usually, going from previous elections as I recall.
    Showing the Americans have no excuse.
    The problem is that there are at least 50 different things that Americas (particularly Californians) are voting for at any time. There's Councilmen, and Assembymen, and Senators, and Attorney Generals, and Secretary of States, and Governors, and Congressmen, and then there are tens of ballot propositions.
    Separate the ballots and do the Presidency first in separate box.

    All the peripheral bullshit can wait.
    Yes: that's what should happen. Sadly, it doesn't happen like that.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,480
    edited 1:14AM
    The Conservatives do seem to be doing particularly well in Newfoundland.

    Historically, the Liberals have always done very well there - which I find funny as it's very English heritage/rural/conservative and I'd expect it to have voted pretty Tory outside St. Johns.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,517

    Looks like Jessica Fancy-Pants might grab South Shore-St. Margarets. 149/231 polls reporting. Leads by 427 votes.

    Madawaska-Restigouche leaning back Liberal. Only half in (84/186 polls) but the Liberal French dude with the long name leads by 1,267 votes.

    On the other hand, I think Conservatives are likely to gain Central Nova... although they might be in trouble in Cumberland-Colchester.

    Lots of incredibly tight races.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,367
    edited 1:16AM

    Looks like Jessica Fancy-Pants might grab South Shore-St. Margarets. 149/231 polls reporting. Leads by 427 votes.

    Madawaska-Restigouche leaning back Liberal. Only half in (84/186 polls) but the Liberal French dude with the long name leads by 1,267 votes.

    52%-28% last time so would be spectacular for the Conservatives.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,540

    The Conservatives do seem to be doing particularly well in Newfoundland.

    Historically, the Liberals have always done very well there - which I find funny as it's very English heritage/rural/conservative and I'd expect it to have voted pretty Tory outside St. Johns.

    12th July is a public holiday in Newfoundland, which I think is the only place outside Northern Ireland.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,480
    rcs1000 said:

    Looks like Jessica Fancy-Pants might grab South Shore-St. Margarets. 149/231 polls reporting. Leads by 427 votes.

    Madawaska-Restigouche leaning back Liberal. Only half in (84/186 polls) but the Liberal French dude with the long name leads by 1,267 votes.

    On the other hand, I think Conservatives are likely to gain Central Nova... although they might be in trouble in Cumberland-Colchester.

    Lots of incredibly tight races.
    That's interesting. On the result of last time, I'd expect Sean Fraser to hold Central Nova. There's a good amount of NDP to squeeze.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,921
    Morning from a bleary eyed Bishkek airport, Kyrgyzstan

    Had to rise at 4.30am. UGH. Why the fuck they put the airport an hour out of town in the steppes I do not know

    But at least the Canadian elex are interestingly close, to pass the time

    Cmon Pierre Poilieiverierverrre (sp?)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,480
    Andy_JS said:

    Looks like Jessica Fancy-Pants might grab South Shore-St. Margarets. 149/231 polls reporting. Leads by 427 votes.

    Madawaska-Restigouche leaning back Liberal. Only half in (84/186 polls) but the Liberal French dude with the long name leads by 1,267 votes.

    52%-28% last time so would be spectacular for the Conservatives.
    Very little NDP. The Conservative do seem to be getting some big jumps in their vote in some rural seats so far.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,480
    Sean_F said:

    The Conservatives do seem to be doing particularly well in Newfoundland.

    Historically, the Liberals have always done very well there - which I find funny as it's very English heritage/rural/conservative and I'd expect it to have voted pretty Tory outside St. Johns.

    12th July is a public holiday in Newfoundland, which I think is the only place outside Northern Ireland.
    Fascinating. I had to Google it to remind myself what that was, which is telling.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,517
    South Shore - St Margarets - Liberal lead up to almost 3% now; I think that's the first Liberal gain of the evening, going from 4 points behind the Conservatives to a lead of 3%.

    Only possible because of the large NDP vote to squeeze.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,367
    rcs1000 said:

    South Shore - St Margarets - Liberal lead up to almost 3% now; I think that's the first Liberal gain of the evening, going from 4 points behind the Conservatives to a lead of 3%.

    Only possible because of the large NDP vote to squeeze.

    Just 4% or so voting for NDP with a candidate present probably would have kept it in the Con column.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,517
    And now most of Canada's polling stations are closed: Quebec and Ontario are the key races.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,921
    I have to say the Kirghiz people seem singularly unmoved by the unexpectedly tight results in the Maritimes. A definite lack of election buzz here in Bishkek. People are just wandering around, drinking coffee, yawning - it’s almost as if they don’t care

    My guess? They’re faking indifference because it’s TOO exciting - like football fans unable to watch a penalty shoot out and pretending to do the dishes
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,517
    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    South Shore - St Margarets - Liberal lead up to almost 3% now; I think that's the first Liberal gain of the evening, going from 4 points behind the Conservatives to a lead of 3%.

    Only possible because of the large NDP vote to squeeze.

    Just 4% or so voting for NDP with a candidate present probably would have kept it in the Con column.
    The Independent is NDP, he just fucked up his filing.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,480
    rcs1000 said:

    And now most of Canada's polling stations are closed: Quebec and Ontario are the key races.

    Starting to come in now..
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,517
    In Trois-Rivières, the incumbent BQ are currently running third behind the Liberals and the Conservatives.
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