politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With the TV debates making the news Andy Cooke’s counter-fa

Andy Cooke, a longstanding PBer and contributor has written two Kindle counter factuals starting starting with the premise of what would have happened if UKIP had been part of the leaders’ debates at GE2010.
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peter_from_putney said:
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SeanT - I have news for you ...... we are in fact now barely 3.5 months away from the General Election, even less than that from when people start casting their postal votes!
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I was going to say that Peter. Not only that but February is short month and we (UKIP) may have more positive fallout from the UKIP Spring Conference in Margate on Feb 27/28th.
Not aware of that spelling of Tories
SeanT said:
This is brilliant, on so many levels:
UAF @uaf 14m14 minutes ago
Resistance to Pegida - 'Intolerance must not be tolerated', http://fb.me/4JB4fmSY1
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Yes, the European Greens don't know where to turn now that the cat is out of the bag, for even morons to see, of what Islamism really means for Europe.
Betfair Sportsbook are
5/4 Yes
4/7 No
to the question "Will a debate between just Cameron and Miliband take place"
5/4 seems fair to me
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379413001819
Any thoughts on organising a Pub session overnight at Dirty Dicks or elsewhere on 7-8 May, obviously with TV and wifi access for us punters ...... I reckon it would be great fun and well attended. I'd be happy to pay say £10-£15 for some bar snacks + tea & coffee to be available.
Cash tied up: £415
UKIP/Other -£290
Lab -£135
Con +£20
Lib Dem +£70
I'd have thought Lib Dem/UKIP would have to be in as many debates as Con/Lab as they enjoy "major party" status.
No Bet for me.
I could see that as being one of the reasons. I would have thought UKIP could have made more progress as they aren't an England only party. It is interesting speaking to people in the North of England who truly hate the Tories but are quite sympathetic to UKIP. Only a personal anecdote but there are a fair few Lab -> UKIP switchers up there, in some cases former union officials. This does not seem to have been replicated in Scotland to such an extent.
Many of the seats which would elect Tory MPs if they were in England elect the SNP. Hence the SLAB label 'tartan tories'.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30870423
"German magazine Der Spiegel reported on Friday that intelligence agencies had intercepted messages from known jihadists planning strikes against the group."
[I think Pegida's wrong, and that they go too far, but there is an issue with Western limp-wristedness which has seen political leaders utterly fail to stand up for civilised values such as freedom of speech].
So far Pegida has attracted many marchers but also united Germany's politicians in saying how horrid and wrong they are.
UKIP might be able to gain some leverage in Scotland, once they get rid of the bufoon that is their sole elected Scottish representative.
I recall attending a similar office-based all night event at Kings Cross on the night Obama was elected as POTUS, when we PBers emerged bleary-eyed at around 6 a.m.
I've also now got paperback versions, for those who don't like using Kindles:
The Fourth Lectern at £2.99
The Fifth Lectern at £5.99
(Apologies that the price is higher, but that's the best I could get them done for)
Although these differences can be exaggerated, if Scotland had a similar political climate to England, it should really have returned 15-20 Tory MPs at the last election, and that would have possibly nudged Cameron (just) to a small overall majority.
They still sell like hot cakes on the internet because it's the only version with a free roaming mobile phone internet connection which works anywhere in the world.
IIRC, there were around 15 of us present that evening from PB.com and apart from OGH who put in a guest appearance before retiring early to his bed, the only PBers still around 6 years later are PtP, Double Carpet, Nick Palmer and yours truly .... an indication of the churn rate on the site.
I'd be really keen to host a event on election night for PB.com readers having read the site most days for a decade! The pub really is perfect for this type of thing. Getting an all night licence via a TEN would be no problem, particularly as it would be ticketed, so those who fancied something stronger than coffee would be well served too!
Mr. JS, I think that must be the version I have. I like the keyboard, as I use it for redrafting and making notes. Do new versions not have a free internet connection?
Those who do leave tend to come back. Eventually.
It's very hard to stay away: once a PB'er, always a PB'er.
And I'd offer to sign your copy, but I'm not sure how to go about that for an ebook...
Thanks for putting forward your premises as a possible venue.
Now that Fat's Steve's offered to become involved, I'm encouraged that something might be do-able.
http://i.imgur.com/mmV3E8i.jpg
One of the American commentators called it "pseudo-solidarity"
Generally level-headed responses about Muslims - people think there's a problem but find most Muslims friendly. And various questions trying to elicit signs of anti-semitism get a resounding negative.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/05/15/eff_whos_got_your_back_2014/ Perhaps the wrong government, such a shame Obama wasn't interested
https://twitter.com/alantravis40/status/556152716964405249
In principle its a bad idea, you just do not let those who threaten put you off. German agencies, however, have felt the marches were a wide open target and its noticeable that the railway station in Dresden was a proposed target for Jihadis. To what extent though the political establishment have used that threat as a way of trying to stifle the momentum of Pegida is an open question.
The other night I posted how Kosher supermarket terrorist Ahmed Coulibaly looked to have led plenty of breadcrumbs that has linked together a lot of individuals. This definitely appears to have been the case, quite literally. It is reported they tested pizza crusts from his bins for DNA that they matched to names.
More importantly but not yet admitted, as intelligence services in the respective countries keep denying links between their respective arrest operations, Coulibaly was very much a link man and his comms and other history has turned up some significant information regarding Jihadis outside of France as well as within.
So far looks a bit of a random one but someone has been lifted.
You may recall we had a few disagreements on here in the mid 2000s!
If you host the GE2015 event will Tipopils be on at a discount?
https://twitter.com/Colderthananice
Con gain angus north and mearns!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albert_McQuarrie
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Myles_(politician)
And really, 'care so much'??
'CHILDREN in Scotland have been the victims of evil ritual abuse including rape, murder and even the production of so-called ‘snuff films’ '
'One veteran campaigner said he had even heard of babies being born and never registered, so the innocent youngsters would not be missed when they were eventually killed by secret paedophile networks.'
'the ritual abuse of children is said to have gone unchecked in Scotland for decades'
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/533158/Child-abusers-filmed-murder-claims-charity
Braveheart indeed.
http://www.highlandclearances.co.uk/clearances/postclearances_whoownsscotland.htm
Many of these estates were created during the Highland Clearances, although many of the Highlanders settled overseas, a reasonable % stayed on in the Central belt of Scotland. This might in part explain why the left wing parties are dominant.
PS a good reason is down to the attitudes of plankton like Watcher and Flightpath.
I heard recently too that there were some very hostile acts conducted against Buddhists in Thailand. Why?
Now I can completely understand wishing to poke a Christian in the eye (verbally, not literally), and so too a Muslim - I've met many examples of both faiths that are bloody annoying. What I'm asking though is whether it's really the case that I've led some sort of charmed life and have failed to meet all the evil Jews, and evil Buddhists which people seem to rail against?
If someone tells me that I'm daft as a brush for my Atheism I don't mind at all - you can bang on all day about it, I won't mind. If on the other hand I tell someone of faith that they might (just might) be wrong it'll undoubtedly cause them to become almost sulphur-emitting.
Jews are great. Muslims are great. Christians are great, and any other religion you might pick. There's the odd daft belief here and there, but hey who am I to comment - although I don't get my daft beliefs out of a belief-cook-book I'm no less prone to them.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jan/18/germany-xenophobic-anti-islamic-pegida-france