And just one final demonstration that it isn't that straightforward, having a cute dog attracts women, whereas my Cobra attracts men. The cute dog doesn't exude power and success whereas the Cobra does.
Is this a real Cobra, or one of those ones with wheels?
If wheels, is it a real one with wheels or a pretend one with wheels?
No it isn't a real one. A real one once went for $13.75 million, and typically for a 427 (my one) you would have to pay over $2 million. So as you might guess it is a pretend one and a lot lot lot cheaper. Makes a fabulous noise though and gets a huge amount of attention. It is huge fun, with the added bonus that @Dura_Ace will be so annoyed I bought one. He is right though it is a death trap with all the power going to the back wheel. It is just for posing.
But just to repeat the point in contradiction to @leon and his evolutionary theories of macho man, well the cute dog attracts loads of women (it is unreal) and the car attracts a huge crowd (but not a single woman) so the sentimental approach wins over the macho side as far as potential mates are concerned hands down. Whereas the men drool over the car their partners probably think I am a plonker.
I recall a series of reviews (something like 20 articles), in one of the better car magazine, of originals vs the reproductions. Done by professional race drivers, IIRC. The one for the Lancia Stratos vs a kit car was hilarious.
The Lister was better put together ?
IIRC the real Stratos broke down so much they could barely complete the test drive with it. They used the kit car to go and get spares and tools.
Justice Department Memo Claims Alien Enemies Act Allows Warrantless Home Searches and No Judicial Review The memo says "Alien Enemies" aren't subject "to a judicial review of the removal in any court of the United States."
In a March 14 memorandum, obtained by the open government group Property of the People through a public records request and first reported by USA Today, Attorney General Pam Bondi instructs federal law enforcement officers on how to carry out arrests on members of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua (TDA), which President Donald Trump has declared are "alien enemies" under the AEA.
The Trump administration has refused to disclose many of the operational details of its unprecedented invocation of the 1798 wartime law to send alleged TDA members to a prison in El Salvador under an agreement with that country's president, Nayib Bukele. The memo is one of the first public glimpses at the Trump administration's claims that it can identify, pursue, arrest, and deport migrants, unconstrained by the Fourth Amendment or due process...
This, of course, contravenes the subsequent SC ruling (and is in blatant violation of the Constitution). It seems, though, not to have been updated or withdrawn.
Twitter’s chief Farage hater has lost faith in Sir Keir
Why Labour's strategy of endlessly alienating its natural supporters, while conceding almost every argument to its opponents on the right, is a recipe for defeat
Some people here have said the judge arrested in the US had broken the law. This Twitter thread breaks down the indictment and shows that’s bollocks: https://x.com/annjacobsmke/status/1915857745170796595 The judge sent the man in question to where the agents were. They then just fucked up.
Guess what? MAGA lie, all the time, about everything.
You also need to be careful of random people on tw@tter. They purposely missed out the core claim against the judge paragraph 29 onwards of the indictment headed,
"DUGAN escorts Flores-Ruiz through a “jury door” to avoid his arrest"
which is the judge led the individual to a private area of the court and they escaped, which is what was reported by the media.
Now we will have to wait if all the statements hold up to further investigation.
It's irrelevant, because:
(1) Supreme Court precedent is that local officials (including Judges) are not legally obliged to aid Federal officials
and
(2) the same Supreme Court judgement that gave Trump effective immunity while in his position, gives a Judge effective immunity in managing their courtroom.
So, even if the Judge had said "leave by that exit and you can avoid the authorities" (which clearly wasn't the case given he traveled down in the elevator with an ICE agent), then said Judge has immunity.
The two day attendance at the NFL draft in Green Bay is currently estimated at 380 K, which will give you an idea of the appetite for pro football here.)
Some people here have said the judge arrested in the US had broken the law. This Twitter thread breaks down the indictment and shows that’s bollocks: https://x.com/annjacobsmke/status/1915857745170796595 The judge sent the man in question to where the agents were. They then just fucked up.
Guess what? MAGA lie, all the time, about everything.
You also need to be careful of random people on tw@tter. They purposely missed out the core claim against the judge paragraph 29 onwards of the indictment headed,
"DUGAN escorts Flores-Ruiz through a “jury door” to avoid his arrest"
which is the judge led the individual to a private area of the court and they escaped, which is what was reported by the media.
Now we will have to wait if all the statements hold up to further investigation.
It's irrelevant, because:
(1) Supreme Court precedent is that local officials (including Judges) are not legally obliged to aid Federal officials
and
(2) the same Supreme Court judgement that gave Trump effective immunity while in his position, gives a Judge effective immunity in managing their courtroom.
So, even if the Judge had said "leave by that exit and you can avoid the authorities" (which clearly wasn't the case given he traveled down in the elevator with an ICE agent), then said Judge has immunity.
The administration’s legal position on this is as dodgy as it is on much else. But it’s entirely consistent with everything else they’re trying to do using the Alien Enemies Act; a power grab.
I've backed the draw (24s) just in case and am going to enjoy the fight.
Eubank for me but odds not attractive.
Sky Sports showed the original Benn vs Eubank from 1990 last night, I caught the last three rounds. Brought back a lot of memories, being 15yo and watching in my parents front room. Benn wearing lairy shorts instead of his usual no nonsense get up, and climbing out from some kind of space rocket into the ring. Didn’t like that at the time and was sure it contributed to his defeat.
In my mind it was a Sunday night, but surely it can’t have been?
I've backed the draw (24s) just in case and am going to enjoy the fight.
Eubank for me but odds not attractive.
Sky Sports showed the original Benn vs Eubank from 1990 last night, I caught the last three rounds. Brought back a lot of memories, being 15yo and watching in my parents front room. Benn wearing lairy shorts instead of his usual no nonsense get up, and climbing out from some kind of space rocket into the ring. Didn’t like that at the time and was sure it contributed to his defeat.
In my mind it was a Sunday night, but surely it can’t have been?
Not sure don't remember anything happening on a Sunday in those days.
I've backed the draw (24s) just in case and am going to enjoy the fight.
Eubank for me but odds not attractive.
Sky Sports showed the original Benn vs Eubank from 1990 last night, I caught the last three rounds. Brought back a lot of memories, being 15yo and watching in my parents front room. Benn wearing lairy shorts instead of his usual no nonsense get up, and climbing out from some kind of space rocket into the ring. Didn’t like that at the time and was sure it contributed to his defeat.
In my mind it was a Sunday night, but surely it can’t have been?
"Nigel Benn vs. Chris Eubank, billed as Who's Fooling Who?, was a professional boxing match contested on 18 November 1990, for the WBO middleweight championship."
I've backed the draw (24s) just in case and am going to enjoy the fight.
Eubank for me but odds not attractive.
Sky Sports showed the original Benn vs Eubank from 1990 last night, I caught the last three rounds. Brought back a lot of memories, being 15yo and watching in my parents front room. Benn wearing lairy shorts instead of his usual no nonsense get up, and climbing out from some kind of space rocket into the ring. Didn’t like that at the time and was sure it contributed to his defeat.
In my mind it was a Sunday night, but surely it can’t have been?
"Nigel Benn vs. Chris Eubank, billed as Who's Fooling Who?, was a professional boxing match contested on 18 November 1990, for the WBO middleweight championship."
"Firstly, we will leave the European Convention on Human Rights and replace it with a British Bill of Rights. Secondly, we have drafted legislation to disapply certain articles of other international treaties which have been used to frustrate attempts to deport those here illegally. Specific clauses will ensure that no asylum or human rights legal claim can delay removals, and that UK courts cannot halt deportations by reference to international treaties that work against the interests of the British people."
I going to guess it isn't quite that easy. But I presume it doesn't really matter, its about producing a dividing line to sell to red wall.
"Firstly, we will leave the European Convention on Human Rights and replace it with a British Bill of Rights. Secondly, we have drafted legislation to disapply certain articles of other international treaties which have been used to frustrate attempts to deport those here illegally. Specific clauses will ensure that no asylum or human rights legal claim can delay removals, and that UK courts cannot halt deportations by reference to international treaties that work against the interests of the British people."
I going to guess it isn't quite that easy. But I presume it doesn't really matter, its about producing a dividing line to sell to red wall.
They could do all those things with a majority in Parliament.
"Firstly, we will leave the European Convention on Human Rights and replace it with a British Bill of Rights. Secondly, we have drafted legislation to disapply certain articles of other international treaties which have been used to frustrate attempts to deport those here illegally. Specific clauses will ensure that no asylum or human rights legal claim can delay removals, and that UK courts cannot halt deportations by reference to international treaties that work against the interests of the British people."
I going to guess it isn't quite that easy. But I presume it doesn't really matter, its about producing a dividing line to sell to red wall.
They could do all those things with a majority in Parliament.
I can foresee massive legal battles how the changes to the law / "disapplying" agreements aren't legally allowed because....
David Frum @davidfrum · 1h Interesting Canadian election polling news: Conservatives do better when pollsters ask, "How do you think your neighbors will vote?" It's the question that predicted the Brexit result when conventional polls missed it.
David Frum @davidfrum · 1h Interesting Canadian election polling news: Conservatives do better when pollsters ask, "How do you think your neighbors will vote?" It's the question that predicted the Brexit result when conventional polls missed it.
Has anyone complained about Trump wearing a blue suit to a funeral?
Only about a million users on X.
And 30 million on bluesky?
Somewhat related - two people I know who work in digital marketing have given up on bluesky. Almost zero engagement in practice. (They aren't doing anything contentious - just regular brand management).
Has anyone complained about Trump wearing a blue suit to a funeral?
Only about a million users on X.
And 30 million on bluesky?
Somewhat related - two people I know who work in digital marketing have given up on bluesky. Almost zero engagement in practice. (They aren't doing anything contentious - just regular brand management).
Quite the opposite for me. 4x more followers on X but 10x more engagement on Bluesky.
David Frum @davidfrum · 1h Interesting Canadian election polling news: Conservatives do better when pollsters ask, "How do you think your neighbors will vote?" It's the question that predicted the Brexit result when conventional polls missed it.
"...There are signs, though, that polls might be underestimating Conservatives’ support. When Focaldata asked voters who they believed their local communities would vote for, Conservatives fared slightly better. James Kanagasooriam, Focaldata’s chief research officer, says drawing on the “wisdom of the crowds” proved accurate in Brexit and during both Trump elections.
“The result suggests a Conservative vote lead and a sizeable polling error,” Kanagasooriam told POLITICO in an email. He added that it’s a trick to know how much weight to give the finding since it’s the only time the firm has deployed the question in Canada...."
There might be a better bet (if such markets were available) on LNP leader Peter Dutton losing his seat in Australia. He won the Dickson electorate 51.7-48.3 last time and he faces the same Labor candidate as last time.
I don't know if the market is also available on Betfair UK, but a market on Dutton's division is available on Betfair Australia. (It's in Queensland/QLD).
The current odds are: Dutton/LNP : 1.4 ALP: 2.32
Personally, I would be very happy if Dutton lost his seat, but I'm somewhat doubtful it'll happen.
Has anyone complained about Trump wearing a blue suit to a funeral?
Only about a million users on X.
And 30 million on bluesky?
Somewhat related - two people I know who work in digital marketing have given up on bluesky. Almost zero engagement in practice. (They aren't doing anything contentious - just regular brand management).
The stats show decline in many activity metrics like Posts, Likes, Follows since Nov.
David Frum @davidfrum · 1h Interesting Canadian election polling news: Conservatives do better when pollsters ask, "How do you think your neighbors will vote?" It's the question that predicted the Brexit result when conventional polls missed it.
"...There are signs, though, that polls might be underestimating Conservatives’ support. When Focaldata asked voters who they believed their local communities would vote for, Conservatives fared slightly better. James Kanagasooriam, Focaldata’s chief research officer, says drawing on the “wisdom of the crowds” proved accurate in Brexit and during both Trump elections.
“The result suggests a Conservative vote lead and a sizeable polling error,” Kanagasooriam told POLITICO in an email. He added that it’s a trick to know how much weight to give the finding since it’s the only time the firm has deployed the question in Canada...."
This might actually be a bad sign for the Conservatives & not a good sign.
To win, the Liberals to squeeze the NDP & Greens vote as much as possible.
If left-leaning people fear that their neighbours will vote Conservative, then they are a lot more likely to vote Liberal, in order to keep the Conservatives away from power.
David Frum @davidfrum · 1h Interesting Canadian election polling news: Conservatives do better when pollsters ask, "How do you think your neighbors will vote?" It's the question that predicted the Brexit result when conventional polls missed it.
"...There are signs, though, that polls might be underestimating Conservatives’ support. When Focaldata asked voters who they believed their local communities would vote for, Conservatives fared slightly better. James Kanagasooriam, Focaldata’s chief research officer, says drawing on the “wisdom of the crowds” proved accurate in Brexit and during both Trump elections.
“The result suggests a Conservative vote lead and a sizeable polling error,” Kanagasooriam told POLITICO in an email. He added that it’s a trick to know how much weight to give the finding since it’s the only time the firm has deployed the question in Canada...."
This might actually be a bad sign for the Conservatives & not a good sign.
To win, the Liberals to squeeze the NDP & Greens vote as much as possible.
If left-leaning people fear that their neighbours will vote Conservative, then they are a lot more likely to vote Liberal, in order to keep the Conservatives away from power.
The point is not that people think their neighbours are voting Conservative, it is that they are voting Conservative but don't want to tell the pollster.
David Frum @davidfrum · 1h Interesting Canadian election polling news: Conservatives do better when pollsters ask, "How do you think your neighbors will vote?" It's the question that predicted the Brexit result when conventional polls missed it.
"...There are signs, though, that polls might be underestimating Conservatives’ support. When Focaldata asked voters who they believed their local communities would vote for, Conservatives fared slightly better. James Kanagasooriam, Focaldata’s chief research officer, says drawing on the “wisdom of the crowds” proved accurate in Brexit and during both Trump elections.
“The result suggests a Conservative vote lead and a sizeable polling error,” Kanagasooriam told POLITICO in an email. He added that it’s a trick to know how much weight to give the finding since it’s the only time the firm has deployed the question in Canada...."
This might actually be a bad sign for the Conservatives & not a good sign.
To win, the Liberals to squeeze the NDP & Greens vote as much as possible.
If left-leaning people fear that their neighbours will vote Conservative, then they are a lot more likely to vote Liberal, in order to keep the Conservatives away from power.
I don't think it works like that. IIRC James Kanagasooriam got Brexit wrong, but that doesn't change the fact that this is a worrying datum that makes me distrust my earlier bet. Dayum
Has anyone complained about Trump wearing a blue suit to a funeral?
Only about a million users on X.
And 30 million on bluesky?
Somewhat related - two people I know who work in digital marketing have given up on bluesky. Almost zero engagement in practice. (They aren't doing anything contentious - just regular brand management).
Always wonder how much actual engagement they get on the big platforms. Sure the numbers might look great but who knows how the platform owners are manipulating the metrics. The google ads antitrust case should show advertisers that these platforms cannot be trusted.
David Frum @davidfrum · 1h Interesting Canadian election polling news: Conservatives do better when pollsters ask, "How do you think your neighbors will vote?" It's the question that predicted the Brexit result when conventional polls missed it.
"...There are signs, though, that polls might be underestimating Conservatives’ support. When Focaldata asked voters who they believed their local communities would vote for, Conservatives fared slightly better. James Kanagasooriam, Focaldata’s chief research officer, says drawing on the “wisdom of the crowds” proved accurate in Brexit and during both Trump elections.
“The result suggests a Conservative vote lead and a sizeable polling error,” Kanagasooriam told POLITICO in an email. He added that it’s a trick to know how much weight to give the finding since it’s the only time the firm has deployed the question in Canada...."
This might actually be a bad sign for the Conservatives & not a good sign.
To win, the Liberals to squeeze the NDP & Greens vote as much as possible.
If left-leaning people fear that their neighbours will vote Conservative, then they are a lot more likely to vote Liberal, in order to keep the Conservatives away from power.
The point is not that people think their neighbours are voting Conservative, it is that they are voting Conservative but don't want to tell the pollster.
Yes. It's a device for telling the pollster what they *really* think.
I have broken my rule of leaving betting until the last minute. Bad me.
I'll keep my existing bet on grounds of "no panic reversions", but I'm far less certain than I was of earlier this evening.
David Frum @davidfrum · 1h Interesting Canadian election polling news: Conservatives do better when pollsters ask, "How do you think your neighbors will vote?" It's the question that predicted the Brexit result when conventional polls missed it.
"...There are signs, though, that polls might be underestimating Conservatives’ support. When Focaldata asked voters who they believed their local communities would vote for, Conservatives fared slightly better. James Kanagasooriam, Focaldata’s chief research officer, says drawing on the “wisdom of the crowds” proved accurate in Brexit and during both Trump elections.
“The result suggests a Conservative vote lead and a sizeable polling error,” Kanagasooriam told POLITICO in an email. He added that it’s a trick to know how much weight to give the finding since it’s the only time the firm has deployed the question in Canada...."
This might actually be a bad sign for the Conservatives & not a good sign.
To win, the Liberals to squeeze the NDP & Greens vote as much as possible.
If left-leaning people fear that their neighbours will vote Conservative, then they are a lot more likely to vote Liberal, in order to keep the Conservatives away from power.
The point is not that people think their neighbours are voting Conservative, it is that they are voting Conservative but don't want to tell the pollster.
Yes. It's a device for telling the pollster what they *really* think.
I have broken my rule of leaving betting until the last minute. Bad me.
I'll keep my existing bet on grounds of "no panic reversions", but I'm far less certain than I was of earlier this evening.
Might a factor be that Trumpski has shut up about Canada for last two weeks?
David Frum @davidfrum · 1h Interesting Canadian election polling news: Conservatives do better when pollsters ask, "How do you think your neighbors will vote?" It's the question that predicted the Brexit result when conventional polls missed it.
"...There are signs, though, that polls might be underestimating Conservatives’ support. When Focaldata asked voters who they believed their local communities would vote for, Conservatives fared slightly better. James Kanagasooriam, Focaldata’s chief research officer, says drawing on the “wisdom of the crowds” proved accurate in Brexit and during both Trump elections.
“The result suggests a Conservative vote lead and a sizeable polling error,” Kanagasooriam told POLITICO in an email. He added that it’s a trick to know how much weight to give the finding since it’s the only time the firm has deployed the question in Canada...."
I believe in that particular polling as strong at predicting results in tight looking contests. As a result I have just placed a three digit political bet on Conservatives winning the popular vote.
I understand, by all means correct me, by Conservatives winning the popular vote, if Libs are not far behind, seats and potential for forming government favours the libs even in PV loss.
Canada are over due a change election, libs changing leader and Trumps anti Canada politicking I think has shaped campaign and media in a more artificial way - but need for change election is still substantially there as the bottom line of this election. I’m cocky and confident Cons winning PV is a winning bet.
David Frum @davidfrum · 1h Interesting Canadian election polling news: Conservatives do better when pollsters ask, "How do you think your neighbors will vote?" It's the question that predicted the Brexit result when conventional polls missed it.
"...There are signs, though, that polls might be underestimating Conservatives’ support. When Focaldata asked voters who they believed their local communities would vote for, Conservatives fared slightly better. James Kanagasooriam, Focaldata’s chief research officer, says drawing on the “wisdom of the crowds” proved accurate in Brexit and during both Trump elections.
“The result suggests a Conservative vote lead and a sizeable polling error,” Kanagasooriam told POLITICO in an email. He added that it’s a trick to know how much weight to give the finding since it’s the only time the firm has deployed the question in Canada...."
This might actually be a bad sign for the Conservatives & not a good sign.
To win, the Liberals to squeeze the NDP & Greens vote as much as possible.
If left-leaning people fear that their neighbours will vote Conservative, then they are a lot more likely to vote Liberal, in order to keep the Conservatives away from power.
The point is not that people think their neighbours are voting Conservative, it is that they are voting Conservative but don't want to tell the pollster.
Yes. It's a device for telling the pollster what they *really* think.
I have broken my rule of leaving betting until the last minute. Bad me.
I'll keep my existing bet on grounds of "no panic reversions", but I'm far less certain than I was of earlier this evening.
Might a factor be that Trumpski has shut up about Canada for last two weeks?
People don't believe facts. They believe stories. Whenever an unexplained datum comes along there is confusion and stress until a story is invented to explain it, then everybody calms down. I call this process "fabulism". I tend to distrust fabulism, as the story overrules the facts. I dn't know *why* the "what do you think the neighbours will vote" works, I just know that it does.
David Frum @davidfrum · 1h Interesting Canadian election polling news: Conservatives do better when pollsters ask, "How do you think your neighbors will vote?" It's the question that predicted the Brexit result when conventional polls missed it.
"...There are signs, though, that polls might be underestimating Conservatives’ support. When Focaldata asked voters who they believed their local communities would vote for, Conservatives fared slightly better. James Kanagasooriam, Focaldata’s chief research officer, says drawing on the “wisdom of the crowds” proved accurate in Brexit and during both Trump elections.
“The result suggests a Conservative vote lead and a sizeable polling error,” Kanagasooriam told POLITICO in an email. He added that it’s a trick to know how much weight to give the finding since it’s the only time the firm has deployed the question in Canada...."
This might actually be a bad sign for the Conservatives & not a good sign.
To win, the Liberals to squeeze the NDP & Greens vote as much as possible.
If left-leaning people fear that their neighbours will vote Conservative, then they are a lot more likely to vote Liberal, in order to keep the Conservatives away from power.
The point is not that people think their neighbours are voting Conservative, it is that they are voting Conservative but don't want to tell the pollster.
Yes. It's a device for telling the pollster what they *really* think.
I have broken my rule of leaving betting until the last minute. Bad me.
I'll keep my existing bet on grounds of "no panic reversions", but I'm far less certain than I was of earlier this evening.
Might a factor be that Trumpski has shut up about Canada for last two weeks?
People don't believe facts. They believe stories. Whenever an unexplained datum comes along there is confusion and stress until a story is invented to explain it, then everybody calms down. I call this process "fabulism". I tend to distrust fabulism, as the story overrules the facts. I dn't know *why* the "what do you think the neighbours will vote" works, I just know that it does.
"I love rumours! Facts can be so misleading, but rumours, true or false, are often revealing.”
Whilst theoretically true it only need be said when things are looking bad. If the Liberal rise (or slight Con dip) is exaggerated to any degree it would make for a more interestingly unknown night.
David Frum @davidfrum · 1h Interesting Canadian election polling news: Conservatives do better when pollsters ask, "How do you think your neighbors will vote?" It's the question that predicted the Brexit result when conventional polls missed it.
"...There are signs, though, that polls might be underestimating Conservatives’ support. When Focaldata asked voters who they believed their local communities would vote for, Conservatives fared slightly better. James Kanagasooriam, Focaldata’s chief research officer, says drawing on the “wisdom of the crowds” proved accurate in Brexit and during both Trump elections.
“The result suggests a Conservative vote lead and a sizeable polling error,” Kanagasooriam told POLITICO in an email. He added that it’s a trick to know how much weight to give the finding since it’s the only time the firm has deployed the question in Canada...."
This might actually be a bad sign for the Conservatives & not a good sign.
To win, the Liberals to squeeze the NDP & Greens vote as much as possible.
If left-leaning people fear that their neighbours will vote Conservative, then they are a lot more likely to vote Liberal, in order to keep the Conservatives away from power.
The point is not that people think their neighbours are voting Conservative, it is that they are voting Conservative but don't want to tell the pollster.
It's an interesting metric to be sure, and if not one any party would hope to rely upon.
David Frum @davidfrum · 1h Interesting Canadian election polling news: Conservatives do better when pollsters ask, "How do you think your neighbors will vote?" It's the question that predicted the Brexit result when conventional polls missed it.
"...There are signs, though, that polls might be underestimating Conservatives’ support. When Focaldata asked voters who they believed their local communities would vote for, Conservatives fared slightly better. James Kanagasooriam, Focaldata’s chief research officer, says drawing on the “wisdom of the crowds” proved accurate in Brexit and during both Trump elections.
“The result suggests a Conservative vote lead and a sizeable polling error,” Kanagasooriam told POLITICO in an email. He added that it’s a trick to know how much weight to give the finding since it’s the only time the firm has deployed the question in Canada...."
This might actually be a bad sign for the Conservatives & not a good sign.
To win, the Liberals to squeeze the NDP & Greens vote as much as possible.
If left-leaning people fear that their neighbours will vote Conservative, then they are a lot more likely to vote Liberal, in order to keep the Conservatives away from power.
The point is not that people think their neighbours are voting Conservative, it is that they are voting Conservative but don't want to tell the pollster.
Yes. It's a device for telling the pollster what they *really* think.
I have broken my rule of leaving betting until the last minute. Bad me.
I'll keep my existing bet on grounds of "no panic reversions", but I'm far less certain than I was of earlier this evening.
Might a factor be that Trumpski has shut up about Canada for last two weeks?
People don't believe facts. They believe stories. Whenever an unexplained datum comes along there is confusion and stress until a story is invented to explain it, then everybody calms down. I call this process "fabulism". I tend to distrust fabulism, as the story overrules the facts. I dn't know *why* the "what do you think the neighbours will vote" works, I just know that it does.
Voters might lie to pollsters about their own vote - something known for a long time as shyness. But this type of question removes all shyness from polling, and removes polling failure and surprise results.
David Frum @davidfrum · 1h Interesting Canadian election polling news: Conservatives do better when pollsters ask, "How do you think your neighbors will vote?" It's the question that predicted the Brexit result when conventional polls missed it.
"...There are signs, though, that polls might be underestimating Conservatives’ support. When Focaldata asked voters who they believed their local communities would vote for, Conservatives fared slightly better. James Kanagasooriam, Focaldata’s chief research officer, says drawing on the “wisdom of the crowds” proved accurate in Brexit and during both Trump elections.
“The result suggests a Conservative vote lead and a sizeable polling error,” Kanagasooriam told POLITICO in an email. He added that it’s a trick to know how much weight to give the finding since it’s the only time the firm has deployed the question in Canada...."
This might actually be a bad sign for the Conservatives & not a good sign.
To win, the Liberals to squeeze the NDP & Greens vote as much as possible.
If left-leaning people fear that their neighbours will vote Conservative, then they are a lot more likely to vote Liberal, in order to keep the Conservatives away from power.
The point is not that people think their neighbours are voting Conservative, it is that they are voting Conservative but don't want to tell the pollster.
Yes. It's a device for telling the pollster what they *really* think.
I have broken my rule of leaving betting until the last minute. Bad me.
I'll keep my existing bet on grounds of "no panic reversions", but I'm far less certain than I was of earlier this evening.
Might a factor be that Trumpski has shut up about Canada for last two weeks?
People don't believe facts. They believe stories. Whenever an unexplained datum comes along there is confusion and stress until a story is invented to explain it, then everybody calms down. I call this process "fabulism". I tend to distrust fabulism, as the story overrules the facts. I dn't know *why* the "what do you think the neighbours will vote" works, I just know that it does.
"I love rumours! Facts can be so misleading, but rumours, true or false, are often revealing.”
I know it's a quote from Hans Landa, but it's still a good point. Facts are facts, but ideas are tools, and an idea is not good because it's true, it's good because it's useful. Ideas stay current even when they are disproved if they enable you to do things you want to do. We surround ourselves with ideas and stories, but as gamblers we must deal with the facts.
The early vote in Canada was higher than 2021 . Although whether that means overall turnout is higher is still uncertain . If we do see overall higher turnout one would normally think that would favour the change candidate .
But this would ignore the Trump factor , it also ignores how Carney has managed to make himself not look like continuity Trudeau .
Poilievre has tried to portray him that way and has really upped the “ change mantra “.
The polling question that is much more important than the headline figure is the favoured PM. Carney is further ahead there than the simple voter intention by party .
And we also need to look at the so called “ younger people will turn out “ which we’ve heard lots about but hardly ever materialises . The only recent election where that happened was in Poland .
We do see the reverse demographic of what one might expect . Carney does much better with retirees who tend to have higher turnout , Poilievre with younger people.
I’d not be pinning hopes on younger voters coming to Poilievres aid !
And voter efficiency is really another problem for the CPC .
I recently found an old cricket card game in a cupboard called Armchair cricket. Looking over the scoring sheets played when I was a child we were clearly using the 'basic' rules of the game, as the regular rules are the most hilariously overdesigned thing I've ever seen, as it even provides for an ability to get out hit ball or obstructing the field.
The early vote in Canada was higher than 2021 . Although whether that means overall turnout is higher is still uncertain . If we do see overall higher turnout one would normally think that would favour the change candidate .
But this would ignore the Trump factor , it also ignores how Carney has managed to make himself not look like continuity Trudeau .
Poilievre has tried to portray him that way and has really upped the “ change mantra “.
The polling question that is much more important than the headline figure is the favoured PM. Carney is further ahead there than the simple voter intention by party .
And we also need to look at the so called “ younger people will turn out “ which we’ve heard lots about but hardly ever materialises . The only recent election where that happened was in Poland .
We do see the reverse demographic of what one might expect . Carney does much better with retirees who tend to have higher turnout , Poilievre with younger people.
I’d not be pinning hopes on younger voters coming to Poilievres aid !
And voter efficiency is really another problem for the CPC .
I don't really see what's so amazing about Carney, but he's nailed the transition to make an incumbent party look fresh again.
I recently found an old cricket card game in a cupboard called Armchair cricket. Looking over the scoring sheets played when I was a child we were clearly using the 'basic' rules of the game, as the regular rules are the most hilariously overdesigned thing I've ever seen, as it even provides for an ability to get out hit ball or obstructing the field.
Here's a taster
I had that game as a kid.
It appears somebody wrote a pc game version of it.
Interesting that they give themselves the full five years to achieve it - whatever the realities or merits (or not) of the proposals I would imagine the time frame would make it appear more credible to some of those enticed by the prospect.
I recently found an old cricket card game in a cupboard called Armchair cricket. Looking over the scoring sheets played when I was a child we were clearly using the 'basic' rules of the game, as the regular rules are the most hilariously overdesigned thing I've ever seen, as it even provides for an ability to get out hit ball or obstructing the field.
Here's a taster
I had that game as a kid.
Did you play the full rules? As it is a bit intimidating. And passive aggressive.
"Any query that arises during a game should be covered by a thorough reading of the rules which the inventor has developed over many years"
Might have played well in the modern era as easier to look up examples online, but I doubt it has survived to mass play today.
I recently found an old cricket card game in a cupboard called Armchair cricket. Looking over the scoring sheets played when I was a child we were clearly using the 'basic' rules of the game, as the regular rules are the most hilariously overdesigned thing I've ever seen, as it even provides for an ability to get out hit ball or obstructing the field.
Here's a taster
I had that game as a kid.
Did you play the full rules? As it is a bit intimidating. And passive aggressive.
"Any query that arises during a game should be covered by a thorough reading of the rules which the inventor has developed over many years"
Might have played well in the modern era as easier to look up examples online, but I doubt it has survived to mass play today.
I can't remember to be honest. But I do remember playing it with my Dad on rainy days during summer holidays.
But this would ignore the Trump factor , it also ignores how Carney has managed to make himself not look like continuity Trudeau .
Yes, Carney's first act of eliminating the Carbon tax was excellent politics & showed that he understood that he needed to change things & show people that he wasn't just a continuation of the Trudeau government.
In Australia, we had a somewhat analogous situation in 2013, when the Gillard Labor government was extremely unpopular because it had also introduced a Carbon Tax.
Gillard was then toppled by her Party, and Kevin Rudd took over as PM, but Rudd failed to make any substantial policy change & kept the Carbon Tax in place, and then went on to lose the election in a landslide.
The key lesson (which also applies to what happened last year in the USA), is that people are usually initially receptive & willing to give the governing party a chance, when a new leader takes over from an unpopular existing leader. But, the new leader then has to clearly show that he (or she) understands which existing policies are making people unhappy & is willing to clearly break with the policies of the previous leader & do things differently.
Which 3 political parties have a bicycle as their symbol?
Hint: they are in 3 different countries.
The only one that comes to mind is the Samajwadi Party in India
That's one of them. The other two are from countries nearby.
The use of the symbol made me think of the boot, ship, etc., in Monopoly. It's cooler than the use of numbers by political parties in Brazil. It's similarly for appealing to non-literate voters but it's also designed to appeal to people in a few different social classes. There's probably a reference to the Ashoka Chakra in there somewhere too. Clever piece of design.
But this would ignore the Trump factor , it also ignores how Carney has managed to make himself not look like continuity Trudeau .
Yes, Carney's first act of eliminating the Carbon tax was excellent politics & showed that he understood that he needed to change things & show people that he wasn't just a continuation of the Trudeau government.
In Australia, we had a somewhat analogous situation in 2013, when the Gillard Labor government was extremely unpopular because it had also introduced a Carbon Tax.
Gillard was then toppled by her Party, and Kevin Rudd took over as PM, but Rudd failed to make any substantial policy change & kept the Carbon Tax in place, and then went on to lose the election in a landslide.
The key lesson (which also applies to what happened last year in the USA), is that people are usually initially receptive & willing to give the governing party a chance, when a new leader takes over from an unpopular existing leader. But, the new leader then has to clearly show that he (or she) understands which existing policies are making people unhappy & is willing to clearly break with the policies of the previous leader & do things differently.
Yes, there might be a fear that you get attacked for having supported previous thing you are now changing (easier for Carney to do though), but if the public like you and agree with a need for change they won't necessarily hold it against your party.
Former FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe (a Democrat) says the Judge Dugan case is legally valid, but the way she was arrested was showed "performative cruelty."
And just one final demonstration that it isn't that straightforward, having a cute dog attracts women, whereas my Cobra attracts men. The cute dog doesn't exude power and success whereas the Cobra does.
Is this a real Cobra, or one of those ones with wheels?
If wheels, is it a real one with wheels or a pretend one with wheels?
No it isn't a real one. A real one once went for $13.75 million, and typically for a 427 (my one) you would have to pay over $2 million. So as you might guess it is a pretend one and a lot lot lot cheaper. Makes a fabulous noise though and gets a huge amount of attention. It is huge fun, with the added bonus that @Dura_Ace will be so annoyed I bought one. He is right though it is a death trap with all the power going to the back wheel. It is just for posing.
Oh God.
What engine does it have? If it's the 7.0 Ford FE Side Oiler that it needs to be a "427" then I suppose I am impressed in a low key, resigned sort of way. LS1/2, ok I suppose. Big block 454, I guess. Small block 357, at least they are cheap. Rover/Buick 289 V8, I'd rather walk while listening to a hypothetical Badenoch hosted podcast about trans.
I've recentily discovered that once they get to 15+ years old, Maserati GranTurismos are basically free. The first gen ones share a lot of parts with Ferrari 430/458 and are fucking part out goldmines. Then I happened on a 2009 4.7 S with the Graziano MC-Shift transmission in Blu Malago and appear to have kept it.
So this is my advice: when you finally realise that kit car ownership means the depression makes you tired but the stress keeps you wake, get rid and get a 2009-2012 Maserati GranCabrio.
And just one final demonstration that it isn't that straightforward, having a cute dog attracts women, whereas my Cobra attracts men. The cute dog doesn't exude power and success whereas the Cobra does.
Is this a real Cobra, or one of those ones with wheels?
If wheels, is it a real one with wheels or a pretend one with wheels?
No it isn't a real one. A real one once went for $13.75 million, and typically for a 427 (my one) you would have to pay over $2 million. So as you might guess it is a pretend one and a lot lot lot cheaper. Makes a fabulous noise though and gets a huge amount of attention. It is huge fun, with the added bonus that @Dura_Ace will be so annoyed I bought one. He is right though it is a death trap with all the power going to the back wheel. It is just for posing.
Oh God.
What engine does it have? If it's the 7.0 Ford FE Side Oiler that it needs to be a "427" then I suppose I am impressed in a low key, resigned sort of way. LS1/2, ok I suppose. Big block 454, I guess. Small block 357, at least they are cheap. Rover/Buick 289 V8, I'd rather walk while listening to a hypothetical Badenoch hosted podcast about trans.
I've recentily discovered that once they get to 15+ years old, Maserati GranTurismos are basically free. The first gen ones share a lot of parts with Ferrari 430/458 and are fucking part out goldmines. Then I happened on a 2009 4.7 S with the Graziano MC-Shift transmission in Blu Malago and appear to have kept it.
So this is my advice: when you finally realise that kit car ownership means the depression makes you tired but the stress keeps you wake, get rid and get a 2009-2012 Maserati GranCabrio.
And just one final demonstration that it isn't that straightforward, having a cute dog attracts women, whereas my Cobra attracts men. The cute dog doesn't exude power and success whereas the Cobra does.
Is this a real Cobra, or one of those ones with wheels?
If wheels, is it a real one with wheels or a pretend one with wheels?
No it isn't a real one. A real one once went for $13.75 million, and typically for a 427 (my one) you would have to pay over $2 million. So as you might guess it is a pretend one and a lot lot lot cheaper. Makes a fabulous noise though and gets a huge amount of attention. It is huge fun, with the added bonus that @Dura_Ace will be so annoyed I bought one. He is right though it is a death trap with all the power going to the back wheel. It is just for posing.
Oh God.
What engine does it have? If it's the 7.0 Ford FE Side Oiler that it needs to be a "427" then I suppose I am impressed in a low key, resigned sort of way. LS1/2, ok I suppose. Big block 454, I guess. Small block 357, at least they are cheap. Rover/Buick 289 V8, I'd rather walk while listening to a hypothetical Badenoch hosted podcast about trans.
I've recentily discovered that once they get to 15+ years old, Maserati GranTurismos are basically free. The first gen ones share a lot of parts with Ferrari 430/458 and are fucking part out goldmines. Then I happened on a 2009 4.7 S with the Graziano MC-Shift transmission in Blu Malago and appear to have kept it.
So this is my advice: when you finally realise that kit car ownership means the depression makes you tired but the stress keeps you wake, get rid and get a 2009-2012 Maserati GranCabrio.
Is the kit car scene sizeable these days?
Nowhere near what it was in the 70s/80s. Modern cars are less suitable as donor vehicles and the proliferation of aftermarket upgrades means modifying a production car is a far more cost-effective route to the deathtrap ownership experience.
David Frum @davidfrum · 1h Interesting Canadian election polling news: Conservatives do better when pollsters ask, "How do you think your neighbors will vote?" It's the question that predicted the Brexit result when conventional polls missed it.
"...There are signs, though, that polls might be underestimating Conservatives’ support. When Focaldata asked voters who they believed their local communities would vote for, Conservatives fared slightly better. James Kanagasooriam, Focaldata’s chief research officer, says drawing on the “wisdom of the crowds” proved accurate in Brexit and during both Trump elections.
“The result suggests a Conservative vote lead and a sizeable polling error,” Kanagasooriam told POLITICO in an email. He added that it’s a trick to know how much weight to give the finding since it’s the only time the firm has deployed the question in Canada...."
This might actually be a bad sign for the Conservatives & not a good sign.
To win, the Liberals to squeeze the NDP & Greens vote as much as possible.
If left-leaning people fear that their neighbours will vote Conservative, then they are a lot more likely to vote Liberal, in order to keep the Conservatives away from power.
The point is not that people think their neighbours are voting Conservative, it is that they are voting Conservative but don't want to tell the pollster.
I don't think there's any significant reason that Canadians might be reluctant to tell pollsters that they are voting Conservative.
The pollster (& David Frum) are basing their argument on the polling before the Brexit vote.
The key difference is the murder of Jo Cox, which would have geniunely made Leave voters uncomfortable about telling pollsters about their Leave vote. And, in fact, a majority of polls just prior to Cox's murder were showing a Leave majority. It was only after her death that nearly all the polls suddenly began showing a Remain majority.
There isn't anything similar in the Canadian election. Poilievre has also said that he will take a tough negotiating stand against Trump & that Canada's sovereignty is non-negotiable. Meaning that a Conservative voter is unlikely to feel that a pollster will consider them to be "unpatriotic" if they tell the pollster that they are voting Conservative.
I think the Liberal rise in the polls is driven more by a feeling of horror at watching Trumpian policies being put into practice & a fear of similar policies being implemented in Canada, because of Poilievre's Trumpian rhetoric.
A similar dynamic is playing out in Australia, where Dutton's Trumpian rhetoric and copying of Trumpian policies such as forced return-to-office & mass cutting of public servants, are making people fearful of voting for the Coalition.
Trump hasn't (as yet anyway) made any threats to Australia's sovereignty, but the movement towards the centre-left is very similar to that in Canada.
David Frum @davidfrum · 1h Interesting Canadian election polling news: Conservatives do better when pollsters ask, "How do you think your neighbors will vote?" It's the question that predicted the Brexit result when conventional polls missed it.
"...There are signs, though, that polls might be underestimating Conservatives’ support. When Focaldata asked voters who they believed their local communities would vote for, Conservatives fared slightly better. James Kanagasooriam, Focaldata’s chief research officer, says drawing on the “wisdom of the crowds” proved accurate in Brexit and during both Trump elections.
“The result suggests a Conservative vote lead and a sizeable polling error,” Kanagasooriam told POLITICO in an email. He added that it’s a trick to know how much weight to give the finding since it’s the only time the firm has deployed the question in Canada...."
This might actually be a bad sign for the Conservatives & not a good sign.
To win, the Liberals to squeeze the NDP & Greens vote as much as possible.
If left-leaning people fear that their neighbours will vote Conservative, then they are a lot more likely to vote Liberal, in order to keep the Conservatives away from power.
The point is not that people think their neighbours are voting Conservative, it is that they are voting Conservative but don't want to tell the pollster.
I don't think there's any significant reason that Canadians might be reluctant to tell pollsters that they are voting Conservative.
The pollster (& David Frum) are basing their argument on the polling before the Brexit vote.
The key difference is the murder of Jo Cox, which would have geniunely made Leave voters uncomfortable about telling pollsters about their Leave vote. And, in fact, a majority of polls just prior to Cox's murder were showing a Leave majority. It was only after her death that nearly all the polls suddenly began showing a Remain majority.
There isn't anything similar in the Canadian election. Poilievre has also said that he will take a tough negotiating stand against Trump & that Canada's sovereignty is non-negotiable. Meaning that a Conservative voter is unlikely to feel that a pollster will consider them to be "unpatriotic" if they tell the pollster that they are voting Conservative.
I think the Liberal rise in the polls is driven more by a feeling of horror at watching Trumpian policies being put into practice & a fear of similar policies being implemented in Canada, because of Poilievre's Trumpian rhetoric.
A similar dynamic is playing out in Australia, where Dutton's Trumpian rhetoric and copying of Trumpian policies such as forced return-to-office & mass cutting of public servants, are making people fearful of voting for the Coalition.
Trump hasn't (as yet anyway) made any threats to Australia's sovereignty, but the movement towards the centre-left is very similar to that in Canada.
Makes you wonder what’s wrong with so many UK voters, who are still telling pollsters they are flirting with our own Trump fanboi.
Former FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe (a Democrat) says the Judge Dugan case is legally valid, but the way she was arrested was showed "performative cruelty."
That's one of Trump's hallmarks, ppur encourager les autres.
There are also questions about how many thousands of innocents he has deported without respecting their constitutional rights, particularly foreign students with valid documents.
David Frum @davidfrum · 1h Interesting Canadian election polling news: Conservatives do better when pollsters ask, "How do you think your neighbors will vote?" It's the question that predicted the Brexit result when conventional polls missed it.
"...There are signs, though, that polls might be underestimating Conservatives’ support. When Focaldata asked voters who they believed their local communities would vote for, Conservatives fared slightly better. James Kanagasooriam, Focaldata’s chief research officer, says drawing on the “wisdom of the crowds” proved accurate in Brexit and during both Trump elections.
“The result suggests a Conservative vote lead and a sizeable polling error,” Kanagasooriam told POLITICO in an email. He added that it’s a trick to know how much weight to give the finding since it’s the only time the firm has deployed the question in Canada...."
This might actually be a bad sign for the Conservatives & not a good sign.
To win, the Liberals to squeeze the NDP & Greens vote as much as possible.
If left-leaning people fear that their neighbours will vote Conservative, then they are a lot more likely to vote Liberal, in order to keep the Conservatives away from power.
The point is not that people think their neighbours are voting Conservative, it is that they are voting Conservative but don't want to tell the pollster.
I don't think there's any significant reason that Canadians might be reluctant to tell pollsters that they are voting Conservative.
The pollster (& David Frum) are basing their argument on the polling before the Brexit vote.
The key difference is the murder of Jo Cox, which would have geniunely made Leave voters uncomfortable about telling pollsters about their Leave vote. And, in fact, a majority of polls just prior to Cox's murder were showing a Leave majority. It was only after her death that nearly all the polls suddenly began showing a Remain majority.
There isn't anything similar in the Canadian election. Poilievre has also said that he will take a tough negotiating stand against Trump & that Canada's sovereignty is non-negotiable. Meaning that a Conservative voter is unlikely to feel that a pollster will consider them to be "unpatriotic" if they tell the pollster that they are voting Conservative.
I think the Liberal rise in the polls is driven more by a feeling of horror at watching Trumpian policies being put into practice & a fear of similar policies being implemented in Canada, because of Poilievre's Trumpian rhetoric.
A similar dynamic is playing out in Australia, where Dutton's Trumpian rhetoric and copying of Trumpian policies such as forced return-to-office & mass cutting of public servants, are making people fearful of voting for the Coalition.
Trump hasn't (as yet anyway) made any threats to Australia's sovereignty, but the movement towards the centre-left is very similar to that in Canada.
Makes you wonder what’s wrong with so many UK voters, who are still telling pollsters they are flirting with our own Trump fanboi.
As I see that, Ref UK rely on their supporters and voters being low information, manipulate them, and treat them like Trump's mushrooms. They rely on them not thinking for themselves.
Keep them in a deafening echo chamber full of shouting, and they can't hear anything that's happening outside.
"Firstly, we will leave the European Convention on Human Rights and replace it with a British Bill of Rights. Secondly, we have drafted legislation to disapply certain articles of other international treaties which have been used to frustrate attempts to deport those here illegally. Specific clauses will ensure that no asylum or human rights legal claim can delay removals, and that UK courts cannot halt deportations by reference to international treaties that work against the interests of the British people."
I going to guess it isn't quite that easy. But I presume it doesn't really matter, its about producing a dividing line to sell to red wall.
It isn't, because there's a whole legal industry and 3rd sector dedicating to stopping him that can't be hobbled through the ballot box.
Arguably, they are to the State today what the trade unions of the 1970s were then.
A few hours after an AP became the first big poll with Trump's approval rating under 40%, WaPo released the second, with his approval also at 39%.
some stuff that jumps out: —67% oppose ending birthright citizenship; 31% support. —70% oppose intervening in private universities; 28% support. —approval rating among independents is 33-58. —approval rating on the economy is 39-61. —53% of Republicans say federal judges shouldn't get to block POTUS
"Firstly, we will leave the European Convention on Human Rights and replace it with a British Bill of Rights. Secondly, we have drafted legislation to disapply certain articles of other international treaties which have been used to frustrate attempts to deport those here illegally. Specific clauses will ensure that no asylum or human rights legal claim can delay removals, and that UK courts cannot halt deportations by reference to international treaties that work against the interests of the British people."
I going to guess it isn't quite that easy. But I presume it doesn't really matter, its about producing a dividing line to sell to red wall.
It isn't, because there's a whole legal industry and 3rd sector dedicating to stopping him that can't be hobbled through the ballot box.
Arguably, they are to the State today what the trade unions of the 1970s were then.
Sounds like you'd be quite comfortable with whatever they are doing to others but what happens when they start those you'd relate to.
David Frum @davidfrum · 1h Interesting Canadian election polling news: Conservatives do better when pollsters ask, "How do you think your neighbors will vote?" It's the question that predicted the Brexit result when conventional polls missed it.
"...There are signs, though, that polls might be underestimating Conservatives’ support. When Focaldata asked voters who they believed their local communities would vote for, Conservatives fared slightly better. James Kanagasooriam, Focaldata’s chief research officer, says drawing on the “wisdom of the crowds” proved accurate in Brexit and during both Trump elections.
“The result suggests a Conservative vote lead and a sizeable polling error,” Kanagasooriam told POLITICO in an email. He added that it’s a trick to know how much weight to give the finding since it’s the only time the firm has deployed the question in Canada...."
I believe in that particular polling as strong at predicting results in tight looking contests. As a result I have just placed a three digit political bet on Conservatives winning the popular vote.
I understand, by all means correct me, by Conservatives winning the popular vote, if Libs are not far behind, seats and potential for forming government favours the libs even in PV loss.
Canada are over due a change election, libs changing leader and Trumps anti Canada politicking I think has shaped campaign and media in a more artificial way - but need for change election is still substantially there as the bottom line of this election. I’m cocky and confident Cons winning PV is a winning bet.
James Kanagasooriam is someone who I take very seriously.
If he says the Conservatives could win the PV, my ears prick up.
60 Chinese car brands....60....all with better tech than Western cars many available at rock bottom prices e.g. $15-20k for cars that cost $50-60k min from Western car companies. Tesla is f##ked, everybody put the real prestige brands are f##ked unless huge protectionism.
NEW: PublicSquare, a website that lets you search for businesses in your community that explicitly want you to know they endorse Trump/MAGA values, is backfiring as people use it to boycott those businesses.
A few hours after an AP became the first big poll with Trump's approval rating under 40%, WaPo released the second, with his approval also at 39%.
some stuff that jumps out: —67% oppose ending birthright citizenship; 31% support. —70% oppose intervening in private universities; 28% support. —approval rating among independents is 33-58. —approval rating on the economy is 39-61. —53% of Republicans say federal judges shouldn't get to block POTUS
It's weird: I would support ending birthright citizenship. But I would obviously only do so via the democratic process. I'm very surprised - given my general (small l) liberal values - that I'm so out of step with US public opinion.
Comments
Biden 4 years.
Everyone else 0 years.
The memo says "Alien Enemies" aren't subject "to a judicial review of the removal in any court of the United States."
https://reason.com/2025/04/25/justice-department-memo-claims-alien-enemies-act-allows-warrantless-home-searches-and-no-judicial-review/
Newly uncovered guidance from the Justice Department claims the Alien Enemies Act (AEA) allows federal law enforcement officers to enter the houses of suspected gang members without a warrant and remove them from the country without any judicial review.
In a March 14 memorandum, obtained by the open government group Property of the People through a public records request and first reported by USA Today, Attorney General Pam Bondi instructs federal law enforcement officers on how to carry out arrests on members of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua (TDA), which President Donald Trump has declared are "alien enemies" under the AEA.
The Trump administration has refused to disclose many of the operational details of its unprecedented invocation of the 1798 wartime law to send alleged TDA members to a prison in El Salvador under an agreement with that country's president, Nayib Bukele. The memo is one of the first public glimpses at the Trump administration's claims that it can identify, pursue, arrest, and deport migrants, unconstrained by the Fourth Amendment or due process...
This, of course, contravenes the subsequent SC ruling (and is in blatant violation of the Constitution). It seems, though, not to have been updated or withdrawn.
Why Labour's strategy of endlessly alienating its natural supporters, while conceding almost every argument to its opponents on the right, is a recipe for defeat
https://x.com/adambienkov/status/1916124272311079397?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
(1) Supreme Court precedent is that local officials (including Judges) are not legally obliged to aid Federal officials
and
(2) the same Supreme Court judgement that gave Trump effective immunity while in his position, gives a Judge effective immunity in managing their courtroom.
So, even if the Judge had said "leave by that exit and you can avoid the authorities" (which clearly wasn't the case given he traveled down in the elevator with an ICE agent), then said Judge has immunity.
Eubank for me but odds not attractive.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_and_American_football
(FWIW, I think that the new UFL will succeed, in a minor way -- assuming the Loser stays out.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Football_League_(2024)
The two day attendance at the NFL draft in Green Bay is currently estimated at 380 K, which will give you an idea of the appetite for pro football here.)
But it’s entirely consistent with everything else they’re trying to do using the Alien Enemies Act; a power grab.
Kitten Navidad in Airplane or Airplane II
In my mind it was a Sunday night, but surely it can’t have been?
Senior is acting as though he's fighting tonight.
"Nigel Benn vs. Chris Eubank, billed as Who's Fooling Who?, was a professional boxing match contested on 18 November 1990, for the WBO middleweight championship."
The 18th of November in 1990 was a Sunday
https://www.dayoftheweek.org/?m=November&d=18&y=1990&go=Go
TL;DR - by year five after Nigel becomes PM all (claimed) 1.2 million illegals will have been deported. No appeals before they leave.
Zia Yusuf
@ZiaYusufUK
As Prime Minister, Nigel Farage will ensure the deportation of all illegal immigrants in this country within 5 years.
https://x.com/ZiaYusufUK/status/1916219350010273933
If someone offered me the choice of a billion pounds today, or the chance to be 15 again in 1990 I’d take the latter without hesitation
https://x.com/cricketissimple/status/1916135499972108684?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
I going to guess it isn't quite that easy. But I presume it doesn't really matter, its about producing a dividing line to sell to red wall.
David Frum
@davidfrum
·
1h
Interesting Canadian election polling news: Conservatives do better when pollsters ask, "How do you think your neighbors will vote?" It's the question that predicted the Brexit result when conventional polls missed it.
Which 3 political parties have a bicycle as their symbol?
Hint: they are in 3 different countries.
https://www.irishstar.com/news/boston-news/real-reason-prince-william-donald-35124019
Visegrád 24
@visegrad24
BREAKING:
Fighting between Indian and Pakistani forces is spreading along the Line of Control.
Starmers ex-girlfriend from about 40 years ago is a pro-trans judge … yawn .
“The result suggests a Conservative vote lead and a sizeable polling error,” Kanagasooriam told POLITICO in an email. He added that it’s a trick to know how much weight to give the finding since it’s the only time the firm has deployed the question in Canada...."
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/26/canada-election-poll-favorability-00311632
See also https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/international/international/45th-canadian-federal-election/246088372/main-markets
The current odds are:
Dutton/LNP : 1.4
ALP: 2.32
Personally, I would be very happy if Dutton lost his seat, but I'm somewhat doubtful it'll happen.
https://bsky.jazco.dev/stats
To win, the Liberals to squeeze the NDP & Greens vote as much as possible.
If left-leaning people fear that their neighbours will vote Conservative, then they are a lot more likely to vote Liberal, in order to keep the Conservatives away from power.
I understand, by all means correct me, by Conservatives winning the popular vote, if Libs are not far behind, seats and potential for forming government favours the libs even in PV loss.
Canada are over due a change election, libs changing leader and Trumps anti Canada politicking I think has shaped campaign and media in a more artificial way - but need for change election is still substantially there as the bottom line of this election. I’m cocky and confident Cons winning PV is a winning bet.
Whilst theoretically true it only need be said when things are looking bad. If the Liberal rise (or slight Con dip) is exaggerated to any degree it would make for a more interestingly unknown night.
That’s my fabulist answer 😌
But this would ignore the Trump factor , it also ignores how Carney has managed to make himself not look like continuity Trudeau .
Poilievre has tried to portray him that way and has really upped the “ change mantra “.
The polling question that is much more important than the headline figure is the favoured PM. Carney is further ahead there than the simple voter intention by party .
And we also need to look at the so called “ younger people will turn out “ which we’ve heard lots about but hardly ever materialises . The only recent election where that happened was in Poland .
We do see the reverse demographic of what one might expect . Carney does much better with retirees who tend to have higher turnout , Poilievre with younger people.
I’d not be pinning hopes on younger voters coming to Poilievres aid !
And voter efficiency is really another problem for the CPC .
But if you could overlook all that, once the fighters were in the ring it was a right old ding dong and as you say, cracking entertainment.
Here's a taster
It appears somebody wrote a pc game version of it.
"Any query that arises during a game should be covered by a thorough reading of the rules which the inventor has developed over many years"
Might have played well in the modern era as easier to look up examples online, but I doubt it has survived to mass play today.
In Australia, we had a somewhat analogous situation in 2013, when the Gillard Labor government was extremely unpopular because it had also introduced a Carbon Tax.
Gillard was then toppled by her Party, and Kevin Rudd took over as PM, but Rudd failed to make any substantial policy change & kept the Carbon Tax in place, and then went on to lose the election in a landslide.
The key lesson (which also applies to what happened last year in the USA), is that people are usually initially receptive & willing to give the governing party a chance, when a new leader takes over from an unpopular existing leader. But, the new leader then has to clearly show that he (or she) understands which existing policies are making people unhappy & is willing to clearly break with the policies of the previous leader & do things differently.
The use of the symbol made me think of the boot, ship, etc., in Monopoly. It's cooler than the use of numbers by political parties in Brazil. It's similarly for appealing to non-literate voters but it's also designed to appeal to people in a few different social classes. There's probably a reference to the Ashoka Chakra in there somewhere too. Clever piece of design.
https://x.com/ThomasSowell/status/1916274505296843176
Trump officials deport two-year-old US citizen and mother of one-year-old girl
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/26/trump-administration-child-deportation
The supreme court will definitely rule against this. The constitutional absolutists won't have it.
What engine does it have? If it's the 7.0 Ford FE Side Oiler that it needs to be a "427" then I suppose I am impressed in a low key, resigned sort of way. LS1/2, ok I suppose. Big block 454, I guess. Small block 357, at least they are cheap. Rover/Buick 289 V8, I'd rather walk while listening to a hypothetical Badenoch hosted podcast about trans.
I've recentily discovered that once they get to 15+ years old, Maserati GranTurismos are basically free. The first gen ones share a lot of parts with Ferrari 430/458 and are fucking part out goldmines. Then I happened on a 2009 4.7 S with the Graziano MC-Shift transmission in Blu Malago and appear to have kept it.
So this is my advice: when you finally realise that kit car ownership means the depression makes you tired but the stress keeps you wake, get rid and get a 2009-2012 Maserati GranCabrio.
The pollster (& David Frum) are basing their argument on the polling before the Brexit vote.
The key difference is the murder of Jo Cox, which would have geniunely made Leave voters uncomfortable about telling pollsters about their Leave vote. And, in fact, a majority of polls just prior to Cox's murder were showing a Leave majority. It was only after her death that nearly all the polls suddenly began showing a Remain majority.
There isn't anything similar in the Canadian election. Poilievre has also said that he will take a tough negotiating stand against Trump & that Canada's sovereignty is non-negotiable. Meaning that a Conservative voter is unlikely to feel that a pollster will consider them to be "unpatriotic" if they tell the pollster that they are voting Conservative.
I think the Liberal rise in the polls is driven more by a feeling of horror at watching Trumpian policies being put into practice & a fear of similar policies being implemented in Canada, because of Poilievre's Trumpian rhetoric.
A similar dynamic is playing out in Australia, where Dutton's Trumpian rhetoric and copying of Trumpian policies such as forced return-to-office & mass cutting of public servants, are making people fearful of voting for the Coalition.
Trump hasn't (as yet anyway) made any threats to Australia's sovereignty, but the movement towards the centre-left is very similar to that in Canada.
There are also questions about how many thousands of innocents he has deported without respecting their constitutional rights, particularly foreign students with valid documents.
Keep them in a deafening echo chamber full of shouting, and they can't hear anything that's happening outside.
Arguably, they are to the State today what the trade unions of the 1970s were then.
A few hours after an AP became the first big poll with Trump's approval rating under 40%, WaPo released the second, with his approval also at 39%.
some stuff that jumps out:
—67% oppose ending birthright citizenship; 31% support.
—70% oppose intervening in private universities; 28% support.
—approval rating among independents is 33-58.
—approval rating on the economy is 39-61.
—53% of Republicans say federal judges shouldn't get to block POTUS
https://bsky.app/profile/taniel.bsky.social/post/3lnrhrc7sf22q
Did you take part in the Milgram experiment?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milgram_experiment
If he says the Conservatives could win the PV, my ears prick up.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J2oCmtWOUkQ
60 Chinese car brands....60....all with better tech than Western cars many available at rock bottom prices e.g. $15-20k for cars that cost $50-60k min from Western car companies. Tesla is f##ked, everybody put the real prestige brands are f##ked unless huge protectionism.
@jbendery.bsky.social
NEW: PublicSquare, a website that lets you search for businesses in your community that explicitly want you to know they endorse Trump/MAGA values, is backfiring as people use it to boycott those businesses.
https://bsky.app/profile/jbendery.bsky.social/post/3lnpuelyzhs2f