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A Cambridge madness – politicalbetting.com

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  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,779

    This is a brilliant piece.

    The key thing to me is an open attitude to risk. We don't have it. In fact, we are totally uncomfortable with changing any established process or way of doing things as we fear that alone carries risk. We don't want to take any responsibility for doing things differently because we don't understand it and we worry we might get singled out for it. Financing is done by box tick-list compliance return and not assessed as an opportunity for return.

    How many people on here know that if you use more than half of credit card limit that your credit score drops from 'excellent' to 'fair'? And then you can't access any other finance unless at a high interest rate?

    I didn't. I did it because Barclaycard had a cash balance 0% offer until 2026 and it was an easy way of me raising money for investing and betting at no cost. When I tried to take out a loan for redeveloping my garage I was shocked at the APR. I had to google to find out why. No-one told me. I tried to explain to FirstDirect that my income had increased, my mortgage had gone down, and there was no risk - in fact it was lower - but they said "the decision stands". So I didn't get finance, they didn't get the commercial loan interest as a bank, and local businesses didn't get the money spent on their trades.

    Process.

    So now I will have to sell investments to lower my credit card borrowing just to ensure I tick a box so I can access finance in a month or two by playing the game.
    Silly.

    It’s not economically efficient to assess each small application individually - they just apply their scoring system. The cost of opening up your application and making a specific assessment outweighs the extra income.
    I think that's an excuse. They could easily test quite quickly using income and affordability tests, includng debt exposure, which could be largely automated.

    It's more they're not comfortable doing so.
    The regulators have determined the scoring models irrespective of personal circumstances. The only way to diverge is as a result of a personal discussion.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,638

    Taz said:

    Meanwhile CGT receipts fall

    https://x.com/merrynsw/status/1916039681088561165?s=61

    This is before CGT increases to 24%

    Why risk capital if you get penalised for the gain ?

    Taz said:

    Meanwhile CGT receipts fall

    https://x.com/merrynsw/status/1916039681088561165?s=61

    This is before CGT increases to 24%

    Why risk capital if you get penalised for the gain ?

    Leave it under the mattress if you want. The cumulative tax exemptions for investors are way too high. The govt should give (some) tax exemption for the first £500k or so but once you are in the millions the state is better off if people spend it rather than save it.
    But it’s not a choice of leave it under the mattress or risk it.

    There are plenty of other places to invest.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,655

    xkcd today is on point.




    Jeez - I hadn't seen the clip that the image links through to. That poor woman seems (rightly!) terrified.

    https://xkcd.com/3081/

  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,963

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    DavidL said:

    Excellent piece highlighting our best prospect of getting out of this low to no growth hell we have been in since 2008. We need innovation and we then need to make sure that UK plc funds it and gains the benefits of it.

    One of our best prospects, but I don’t think it’s enough. By “it” I mean encouraging more innovative businesses to scale up here. ARM took decades to build and you’d need dozens of them to scratch the surface.

    What we really need now is something even more traditionally British. A good old consumer boom. We used to be masters at spending. We even got good at spending on the never never. Then in 2008 we lost the ability, and we started saving and credit institutions stopped lending. Not because British consumers were a huge risk, but because of some very silly American derivative instruments that nobody understood. Casino’s credit rating story is a small example of the role financial services played in this.

    But we never stopped saving. The Eurozone crisis came along, we tightened our belts. Brexit came along, we stopped spending again and saved more. Then Covid, so we stopped spending and saved. Then Ukraine.

    We need a consumer splurge, and a construction boom, and a big expansion of credit. We need to bring back boom
    and bust.
    Do you know what the UK's trade balance has been since 2008 ?

    A deficit of over £400bn during a period which you think we lost the ability to spend money we didn't have.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/ikbj/mret
    UK private net debt since 2009 has fallen consistently, just as in Japan. And as a result, government borrowing has been rising. We really don’t want to become like Japan.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/private-debt-to-gdp

    Trade deficits are not the same as fiscal deficits. As Trump is clumsily but very dramatically demonstrating this month.
    That private sector debt has fallen is a good thing, that government sector debt has risen is a bad thing.

    Having consumption under control and investing your surplus income is a good thing at the individual level, at the business level and at the government level.

    What the country does not need is to increase consumption on more imported tat, or more foreign holidays, at the expense of that future investment.
    I disagree. I know it seems counterintuitive- we’re always told that we don’t save and invest enough, and that being careful is important, but the economic history of us and our peers doesn’t back up the intuition. And we’re not investing, we’re saving. In low risk assets.

    Our long term growth rate has fallen in lock step with our propensity to spend. Same as Japan, France, Italy etc. households have more wealth, more savings, but they’re not spending so they’re bankrupting the government.

    When countries go through consumer booms most of the incremental spending is not on “foreign tat” or holidays but on everything including home improvements, extensions, new cars, eating out. And even on imported goods loads of the margin - often half or more - remains with distributors and retailers and installers here in the UK. Even more so if we get some dumping from countries locked out of the US market - they’ll be exporting at a loss which is great news for our retailers.

    And it’s not just households. Private debt includes business. UK businesses are cautious asset sweaters just like our households. Less business spending and investment than almost all peer countries.
    We've seen what happens when the plan is to 'spend ourselves rich' with both the 2008 bank crashes and Liz Truss in 2022.

    Yet on both occasions both myself and the business I work for survived and prospered. We did this because we avoided debt, had money in the bank and could survive hard times when others who didn't failed instead.

    By the way if you want an example of a business which was happy to 'sweat assets' then take a look at Thames Water.

    In any case your whole strategy cannot be applied.

    Why ? Because those individuals and businesses which chose to live within their means and save/invest their excess income have mostly prospered, are happy with the results and are unlikely to change their behaviour.

    While those individuals and businesses which chose to 'spend themselves rich' and to 'sweat their assets' have tended to struggle and so ultimately cannot increase their excess spending.
    I think you agree my point about sweating assets then. It’s the British disease. And households do it too.

    Your post is a very good illustration of the difference between individual and national priorities. We’d still be living in caves if every family just saved its excess income. But it often makes sense at the household level.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,872
    edited April 26
    I don’t want to worry anyone but I am increasingly tempted to believe that reality as we know it is an illusion, and in fact we - I - live in a simulation

    If that is the case it means none of you exist. I hope this doesn’t put a dent in your weekend, especially @Cookie who is off to enjoy the snooker
  • Good morning, everyone.

    IanB2 said:

    It's wall-to-wall dead pope on the media this morning.

    Same as last time.

    "Pope remains dead" is not the most exciting headline. And other things are happening.
    The Pope's dead??
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,227

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    DavidL said:

    Excellent piece highlighting our best prospect of getting out of this low to no growth hell we have been in since 2008. We need innovation and we then need to make sure that UK plc funds it and gains the benefits of it.

    One of our best prospects, but I don’t think it’s enough. By “it” I mean encouraging more innovative businesses to scale up here. ARM took decades to build and you’d need dozens of them to scratch the surface.

    What we really need now is something even more traditionally British. A good old consumer boom. We used to be masters at spending. We even got good at spending on the never never. Then in 2008 we lost the ability, and we started saving and credit institutions stopped lending. Not because British consumers were a huge risk, but because of some very silly American derivative instruments that nobody understood. Casino’s credit rating story is a small example of the role financial services played in this.

    But we never stopped saving. The Eurozone crisis came along, we tightened our belts. Brexit came along, we stopped spending again and saved more. Then Covid, so we stopped spending and saved. Then Ukraine.

    We need a consumer splurge, and a construction boom, and a big expansion of credit. We need to bring back boom
    and bust.
    Do you know what the UK's trade balance has been since 2008 ?

    A deficit of over £400bn during a period which you think we lost the ability to spend money we didn't have.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/ikbj/mret
    UK private net debt since 2009 has fallen consistently, just as in Japan. And as a result, government borrowing has been rising. We really don’t want to become like Japan.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/private-debt-to-gdp

    Trade deficits are not the same as fiscal deficits. As Trump is clumsily but very dramatically demonstrating this month.
    That private sector debt has fallen is a good thing, that government sector debt has risen is a bad thing.

    Having consumption under control and investing your surplus income is a good thing at the individual level, at the business level and at the government level.

    What the country does not need is to increase consumption on more imported tat, or more foreign holidays, at the expense of that future investment.
    I disagree. I know it seems counterintuitive- we’re always told that we don’t save and invest enough, and that being careful is important, but the economic history of us and our peers doesn’t back up the intuition. And we’re not investing, we’re saving. In low risk assets.

    Our long term growth rate has fallen in lock step with our propensity to spend. Same as Japan, France, Italy etc. households have more wealth, more savings, but they’re not spending so they’re bankrupting the government.

    When countries go through consumer booms most of the incremental spending is not on “foreign tat” or holidays but on everything including home improvements, extensions, new cars, eating out. And even on imported goods loads of the margin - often half or more - remains with distributors and retailers and installers here in the UK. Even more so if we get some dumping from countries locked out of the US market - they’ll be exporting at a loss which is great news for our retailers.

    And it’s not just households. Private debt includes business. UK businesses are cautious asset sweaters just like our households. Less business spending and investment than almost all peer countries.
    Ooh. I wonder if that distinction between saving and investing is the key to the matter.

    If so, what's the way out? It feels like it may be one of those problems where the sensible thing individually turns out foolish on a wider scale, but that may just be my prejudices speaking.
    Most so-called investment these days is in housing (rent or mortgage) which generates almost no additional economic activity.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,571
    Interesting piece on young female voting:


    We obsess over the angry young men going Reform. But what of the anxious young women going Green?
    Gaby Hinsliff

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/apr/25/young-men-reform-women-green-voters
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,571
    How's Trump going to cope with all these hours where he is not the centre of attention?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,808

    Good morning, everyone.

    IanB2 said:

    It's wall-to-wall dead pope on the media this morning.

    Same as last time.

    "Pope remains dead" is not the most exciting headline. And other things are happening.
    The Pope's dead??
    It's been more than three days, so I think we can say so with some confidence.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,963

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    DavidL said:

    Excellent piece highlighting our best prospect of getting out of this low to no growth hell we have been in since 2008. We need innovation and we then need to make sure that UK plc funds it and gains the benefits of it.

    One of our best prospects, but I don’t think it’s enough. By “it” I mean encouraging more innovative businesses to scale up here. ARM took decades to build and you’d need dozens of them to scratch the surface.

    What we really need now is something even more traditionally British. A good old consumer boom. We used to be masters at spending. We even got good at spending on the never never. Then in 2008 we lost the ability, and we started saving and credit institutions stopped lending. Not because British consumers were a huge risk, but because of some very silly American derivative instruments that nobody understood. Casino’s credit rating story is a small example of the role financial services played in this.

    But we never stopped saving. The Eurozone crisis came along, we tightened our belts. Brexit came along, we stopped spending again and saved more. Then Covid, so we stopped spending and saved. Then Ukraine.

    We need a consumer splurge, and a construction boom, and a big expansion of credit. We need to bring back boom
    and bust.
    Do you know what the UK's trade balance has been since 2008 ?

    A deficit of over £400bn during a period which you think we lost the ability to spend money we didn't have.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/ikbj/mret
    UK private net debt since 2009 has fallen consistently, just as in Japan. And as a result, government borrowing has been rising. We really don’t want to become like Japan.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/private-debt-to-gdp

    Trade deficits are not the same as fiscal deficits. As Trump is clumsily but very dramatically demonstrating this month.
    That private sector debt has fallen is a good thing, that government sector debt has risen is a bad thing.

    Having consumption under control and investing your surplus income is a good thing at the individual level, at the business level and at the government level.

    What the country does not need is to increase consumption on more imported tat, or more foreign holidays, at the expense of that future investment.
    I disagree. I know it seems counterintuitive- we’re always told that we don’t save and invest enough, and that being careful is important, but the economic history of us and our peers doesn’t back up the intuition. And we’re not investing, we’re saving. In low risk assets.

    Our long term growth rate has fallen in lock step with our propensity to spend. Same as Japan, France, Italy etc. households have more wealth, more savings, but they’re not spending so they’re bankrupting the government.

    When countries go through consumer booms most of the incremental spending is not on “foreign tat” or holidays but on everything including home improvements, extensions, new cars, eating out. And even on imported goods loads of the margin - often half or more - remains with distributors and retailers and installers here in the UK. Even more so if we get some dumping from countries locked out of the US market - they’ll be exporting at a loss which is great news for our retailers.

    And it’s not just households. Private debt includes business. UK businesses are cautious asset sweaters just like our households. Less business spending and investment than almost all peer countries.
    Ooh. I wonder if that distinction between saving and investing is the key to the matter.

    If so, what's the way out? It feels like it may be one of those problems where the sensible thing individually turns out foolish on a wider scale, but that may just be my prejudices speaking.
    Most so-called investment these days is in housing (rent or mortgage) which generates almost no additional economic activity.
    Investing in home improvements is very good for generating economic activity though. Most of the money goes to services, or to the wholesale and retail margins on goods, and if it involves improving energy efficiency and insulation then it also reduces expenditure on oil and gas imports.
  • TimS said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    DavidL said:

    Excellent piece highlighting our best prospect of getting out of this low to no growth hell we have been in since 2008. We need innovation and we then need to make sure that UK plc funds it and gains the benefits of it.

    One of our best prospects, but I don’t think it’s enough. By “it” I mean encouraging more innovative businesses to scale up here. ARM took decades to build and you’d need dozens of them to scratch the surface.

    What we really need now is something even more traditionally British. A good old consumer boom. We used to be masters at spending. We even got good at spending on the never never. Then in 2008 we lost the ability, and we started saving and credit institutions stopped lending. Not because British consumers were a huge risk, but because of some very silly American derivative instruments that nobody understood. Casino’s credit rating story is a small example of the role financial services played in this.

    But we never stopped saving. The Eurozone crisis came along, we tightened our belts. Brexit came along, we stopped spending again and saved more. Then Covid, so we stopped spending and saved. Then Ukraine.

    We need a consumer splurge, and a construction boom, and a big expansion of credit. We need to bring back boom
    and bust.
    Do you know what the UK's trade balance has been since 2008 ?

    A deficit of over £400bn during a period which you think we lost the ability to spend money we didn't have.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/ikbj/mret
    UK private net debt since 2009 has fallen consistently, just as in Japan. And as a result, government borrowing has been rising. We really don’t want to become like Japan.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/private-debt-to-gdp

    Trade deficits are not the same as fiscal deficits. As Trump is clumsily but very dramatically demonstrating this month.
    That private sector debt has fallen is a good thing, that government sector debt has risen is a bad thing.

    Having consumption under control and investing your surplus income is a good thing at the individual level, at the business level and at the government level.

    What the country does not need is to increase consumption on more imported tat, or more foreign holidays, at the expense of that future investment.
    I disagree. I know it seems counterintuitive- we’re always told that we don’t save and invest enough, and that being careful is important, but the economic history of us and our peers doesn’t back up the intuition. And we’re not investing, we’re saving. In low risk assets.

    Our long term growth rate has fallen in lock step with our propensity to spend. Same as Japan, France, Italy etc. households have more wealth, more savings, but they’re not spending so they’re bankrupting the government.

    When countries go through consumer booms most of the incremental spending is not on “foreign tat” or holidays but on everything including home improvements, extensions, new cars, eating out. And even on imported goods loads of the margin - often half or more - remains with distributors and retailers and installers here in the UK. Even more so if we get some dumping from countries locked out of the US market - they’ll be exporting at a loss which is great news for our retailers.

    And it’s not just households. Private debt includes business. UK businesses are cautious asset sweaters just like our households. Less business spending and investment than almost all peer countries.
    Ooh. I wonder if that distinction between saving and investing is the key to the matter.

    If so, what's the way out? It feels like it may be one of those problems where the sensible thing individually turns out foolish on a wider scale, but that may just be my prejudices speaking.
    Most so-called investment these days is in housing (rent or mortgage) which generates almost no additional economic activity.


    That’s what I’m getting at with my complaint about inequality up thread. If your only asset is unaffordable and you will never catch up if you risk it and lose, you ain’t gonna throw it away on an uncertainty.

    Increasing house prices through first time buyer support was a massive mistake. It pushed us all into fear of pauperisation.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,336

    Interesting piece on young female voting:


    We obsess over the angry young men going Reform. But what of the anxious young women going Green?
    Gaby Hinsliff

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/apr/25/young-men-reform-women-green-voters

    The young women in our local Green party seem more angry than anxious TBH. Animal welfare issues in particular are guaranteed to get them in a state of agitated militancy in short order.

    Very few cis-males come through the ivy shrouded doors though so maybe Hinsliff is on to something.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,241


    Sinclair was the epitome of “throw a half finished product, as cheap as possible, over the wall”.

    True, but the cost mattered. The original ZX Spectrum was 125 quid in 1982, which is the equivalent of about 440 quid today. The BBC Micro, which came out at about the same time, cost 299 quid for the cheapest model, which in today's money is over a grand. There were a lot of people who could stretch to buying a Spectrum who would never have been able to justify to themselves dropping that much money on a Beeb.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,577
    7.3 million Canadians have already voted.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,474
    "I'm canvassing for the Greens. The Greys want parity with the Reds.

    We can look cute too"


  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,401

    This is a brilliant piece.

    The key thing to me is an open attitude to risk. We don't have it. In fact, we are totally uncomfortable with changing any established process or way of doing things as we fear that alone carries risk. We don't want to take any responsibility for doing things differently because we don't understand it and we worry we might get singled out for it. Financing is done by box tick-list compliance return and not assessed as an opportunity for return.

    How many people on here know that if you use more than half of credit card limit that your credit score drops from 'excellent' to 'fair'? And then you can't access any other finance unless at a high interest rate?

    I didn't. I did it because Barclaycard had a cash balance 0% offer until 2026 and it was an easy way of me raising money for investing and betting at no cost. When I tried to take out a loan for redeveloping my garage I was shocked at the APR. I had to google to find out why. No-one told me. I tried to explain to FirstDirect that my income had increased, my mortgage had gone down, and there was no risk - in fact it was lower - but they said "the decision stands". So I didn't get finance, they didn't get the commercial loan interest as a bank, and local businesses didn't get the money spent on their trades.

    Process.

    So now I will have to sell investments to lower my credit card borrowing just to ensure I tick a box so I can access finance in a month or two by playing the game.
    Silly.

    It’s not economically efficient to assess each small application individually - they just apply their scoring system. The cost of opening up your application and making a specific assessment outweighs the extra income.
    I think that's an excuse. They could easily test quite quickly using income and affordability tests, includng debt exposure, which could be largely automated.

    It's more they're not comfortable doing so.
    The regulators have determined the scoring models irrespective of personal circumstances. The only way to diverge is as a result of a personal discussion.
    So we have two problems (1) regulation, that doesn't make any sense and (2) personal discussions they don't want to have.

    I spent 15 minutes on the phone to the loans department where they wouldn't take personal circumstance into account, although they could have done so. They did so because of risk aversion and fear, not time and cost. It wouldn't have cost them anything to do so.

    I think you're making excuses. You're part of the problem.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,577
    Roger said:

    "I'm canvassing for the Greens. The Greys want parity with the Reds.

    We can look cute too"


    Wot, no images of grey squirrels gnawing into a bird box to scoop out the chicks or eggs?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,474

    Roger said:

    "I'm canvassing for the Greens. The Greys want parity with the Reds.

    We can look cute too"


    Wot, no images of grey squirrels gnawing into a bird box to scoop out the chicks or eggs?
    Tory Prejudice!!
  • CollegeCollege Posts: 122
    edited April 26
    The reason people say "died by suicide" is to avoid saying "committed suicide" which frames the act as a crime or sin. If you want to suggest that a person who supposedly died by suicide was in fact murdered, you should say they "were suicided".
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,808
    On topic (and thanks for an excellent header), is it really true that we no longer have an appetite for risk ?

    There are bits of the economy (eg Fintech development) where we still compete globally.

    It's perhaps more that we don't have anywhere near the depth of capital available elsewhere; that we've lost the appetite to risk large amounts on new manufacturing technologies; that we have far poorer resilience to failure than places like the US.

    Some of those things are cultural, so tough to fix. Others might be amenable to change, given a government with a clue.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575
    Leon said:

    I don’t want to worry anyone but I am increasingly tempted to believe that reality as we know it is an illusion, and in fact we - I - live in a simulation

    If that is the case it means none of you exist. I hope this doesn’t put a dent in your weekend, especially @Cookie who is off to enjoy the snooker

    Leon goes from five a day to scoring a Descartes.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,539
    isam said:
    - So this funeral will be a sort of summit.
    - Yes. It's a heaven-sent opportunity.
    - Literally.
    - Yes.
    - Better than a summit because there are no expectations.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,553
    edited April 26

    This is a brilliant piece.

    The key thing to me is an open attitude to risk. We don't have it. In fact, we are totally uncomfortable with changing any established process or way of doing things as we fear that alone carries risk. We don't want to take any responsibility for doing things differently because we don't understand it and we worry we might get singled out for it. Financing is done by box tick-list compliance return and not assessed as an opportunity for return.

    How many people on here know that if you use more than half of credit card limit that your credit score drops from 'excellent' to 'fair'? And then you can't access any other finance unless at a high interest rate?

    I didn't. I did it because Barclaycard had a cash balance 0% offer until 2026 and it was an easy way of me raising money for investing and betting at no cost. When I tried to take out a loan for redeveloping my garage I was shocked at the APR. I had to google to find out why. No-one told me. I tried to explain to FirstDirect that my income had increased, my mortgage had gone down, and there was no risk - in fact it was lower - but they said "the decision stands". So I didn't get finance, they didn't get the commercial loan interest as a bank, and local businesses didn't get the money spent on their trades.

    Process.

    So now I will have to sell investments to lower my credit card borrowing just to ensure I tick a box so I can access finance in a month or two by playing the game.
    Silly.

    It’s not economically efficient to assess each small application individually - they just apply their scoring system. The cost of opening up your application and making a specific assessment outweighs the extra income.
    I think that's an excuse. They could easily test quite quickly using income and affordability tests, includng debt exposure, which could be largely automated.

    It's more they're not comfortable doing so.
    You can break through that wall. Sorry long explanation:

    As you know because we discussed it sometime ago I am a credit card tart. I used to do what @malcolmg was talking about many years ago. I would take out 0% cards then look for free balance transfers to 0% cards when the 0% timeline was about to run out. I would invest the money keeping a big balance on credit cards at 0%. I built up to about 20 cards. After the transfer I tended to keep the old cards, with nothing on the card so ended up with a good credit rating and each time I applied I got more and more credit at 0%. I got it to over £100K.

    Eventually I stopped when interest rates went down and it was too much hassle to manage. Having paid off all the cards and with a huge combined credit limit we both have really good credit ratings.

    I kept my cards but my wife wasn't happy keeping all of hers so she cancelled them all and just used a joint card. She then decided she wanted a new one for day to day use separate from me.

    Now we ran into the tick box issue (ironic seeing as previously she had ridiculous credit).

    We don't have an income (other than one state pension). We are not taking our pension yet because we don't need to. We are very lucky, we have plenty of saving to live off. As far as the credit card company is concerned though: No income means no credit card. Explain the circumstances to them and they relent and give my wife a card with a £200 limit. That is useless. I email the CEO and explain our circumstances. She gets a card with a £15K limit.

    Annoying, but you have to bypass the tick box part that says 'No'.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,808
    College said:

    The reason people say "died by suicide" is to avoid saying "committed suicide" which frames the act as a crime or sin. If you want to suggest that a person who supposedly died by suicide was in fact murdered, you should say they "were suicided".

    Not in this case.

    It's a direct quote from Giuffre's family - there's no official cause of death for now. Clearly they believe it a result of the abuse she previously suffered.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,622

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    An interesting listen, a conversation on The Weekly Show between Jon Stewart and Rory Stewart.

    Good Saturday morning background.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=at-smySDPNU

    I switched it off, Robinson's gleeful banality in fckng overdrive just too much.
    It's a podcast of a conversation; I did not see any Robinsons :smile: .
    Apols, reply should have been to @boulay


    '“Look at his shoes, a down to earth, simple man, one of us”

    No, not TSE but a quote from Radcliffe just now on Today, English chap in charge of the Dominicans about the pope.'

    'I switched it off, Robinson's gleeful banality in fckng overdrive just too much.'
    Who'd have thought the Italians could organise something like this with such quiet dignity. It's difficult not to compare it with the general trashiness that emanates from the US at the moment. Hopefully it might be a cue for a Western world reset.
    Though the next Pope may well not be from the Western world, plenty of African and Asian cardinals in the congregation this morning and Francis himself was of course Argentine which is borderline western at best
    Argentine of Italian heritage.
    On the news yesterday they called him "the first non-European Pope" which of course is bollocks. (Peter was from what is now the Golan Heights and plenty of Hellenised Asians folliwed). Not sure when the last non-European one was, though.

    I did think Francis was the best way they could find to elect an Italian, without appearing to do so
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,963
    isam said:
    Ralph Fiennes just out of shot, breathing loudly and looking worried.
  • CollegeCollege Posts: 122
    edited April 26
    Nigelb said:

    College said:

    The reason people say "died by suicide" is to avoid saying "committed suicide" which frames the act as a crime or sin. If you want to suggest that a person who supposedly died by suicide was in fact murdered, you should say they "were suicided".

    Not in this case.

    It's a direct quote from Giuffre's family - there's no official cause of death for now. Clearly they believe it a result of the abuse she previously suffered.
    "Died by suicide" is standard lingo, as advised by the American Psychiatric Association, the NSPCC, etc. etc. etc.

    Michele Sindona was suicided. Jeffrey Epstein probably was too. I haven't followed Virginia Giuffre.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,402
    pm215 said:


    Sinclair was the epitome of “throw a half finished product, as cheap as possible, over the wall”.

    True, but the cost mattered. The original ZX Spectrum was 125 quid in 1982, which is the equivalent of about 440 quid today. The BBC Micro, which came out at about the same time, cost 299 quid for the cheapest model, which in today's money is over a grand. There were a lot of people who could stretch to buying a Spectrum who would never have been able to justify to themselves dropping that much money on a Beeb.
    That price should also be compared to the American competitors, such as the IBM PC or Apple II / Lisa / Mac (depending on year). IIRC they were much more expensive.

    The BBC Micro was, by design, massively expandable and rugged - both required for the schools environment. Sadly, Acorn's 'cheap' version - the Electron - was delayed and released at just the wrong time. This nearly killed the company as they were left with enough unsold stock to bury a car.

    There are lots of what-ifs in the history of Acorn, as there are with many companies.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,553
    Leon said:

    I don’t want to worry anyone but I am increasingly tempted to believe that reality as we know it is an illusion, and in fact we - I - live in a simulation

    If that is the case it means none of you exist. I hope this doesn’t put a dent in your weekend, especially @Cookie who is off to enjoy the snooker

    If we don't exist it won't put us off our weekend. In fact the weekend and snooker won't exist either.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,227

    How's Trump going to cope with all these hours where he is not the centre of attention?

    By making himself the centre of attention. He will simply walk to the front and centre of any group photos.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,989

    FPT...

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    I'm not sure being a councillor now, for any party, is any fun.

    You're severely constrained in what you can do by national policy and hand-me-down budget, and mainly there to take the blame for executing it and trying to square the impossible.

    I think (once) Hampshire County Council sent a "what would you cut?" list round as a survey to help guide councillors. I went through it, largely looking at the big line items on social care/support and suggestions on what to trim to balance the budget/invest elsewhere, and got surprising resistance from my very right-wing parents when I suggested qualifying it all.

    There is no appetite for it.

    Hampshire Tories are in deep trouble, having tried to get permission for an extraordinary 15% council tax increase with something similar again next year, but been held to the national cap of (effectively) 5%. The county is heading the way of Surrey.

    Meanwhile Kemi is doing her best to assure everyone that voting Tory means sound financial management….
    So much is a statutory responsibility that the council cannot legally cut that bankruptcy is a constant fear.

    Farage wants to cut children's services for special educational needs for example. Even if that were desired, it would require national policy change, not local.
    Yes, that's the point.
    So if Reform do as well as expected and end up running some councils and mayoralities, what happens next?

    They will face the same hideous maths as the Uniparty politicians they despise. And the things that seem to be the focus of their campaigning (pro boat stopping, anti solar farms) aren't really going to be in their control.
    Reminds me of the unexpectedly high number of Scottish Tories elected to councils in 2017 who were just itching to vote for The Union at council meetings.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,950

    Thanks for all the kind comments, everyone. I shall try to respond later this afternoon.

    Apologies for not being here for my own threader, but it might be interesting to know why I was not here.

    Earlier this week, a 17 year old lad went missing from a nearby village. This morning, at least 100 of us - possibly up to 200 - met up for an official police search. I joined a group of six other strangers, and we drove off to search a nearby village. After walking four miles over two hours, around muddy fields and searching ditches and culverts, I met another group who said the search had been called off. I've heard nothing official, but it looks like bad news.

    I have several things to say about this.

    Obviously, condolences to the lad's family. It must be a hideous time.
    But on a slight bright side, it's good to see so many people turn up to try to help. And it sounds as though one group did help.
    Making a few assumptions: we need to talk more about mental health, especially for boys and men. Life can be tough for everyone, and the 'traditional' way men are meant to be - stiff upper lip, never crying, never talking about emotions - might well be quite harmful. If you feel low, talk to someone. It's not unmanly. And we need to teach our kids that as well.

    Finally, it was all slightly disorganised. Each group was given a set area to search, but there was no connection back to base. This seems an ideal job for there to be an app that would automatically show the police where you are, and where you have searched, and allow them to give you updates. Once I heard the news about the search being called off, there was no way, aside from calling one of my group who I had the number of, to tell them about it. I'm sure it could be better done.

    But thanks again to everyone who turned out. There are many, many good people out there in society.

    Apols for the rant.

    Agree. But.
    We've been talking more about mental health gradually throughout the whole of my adult life. More and more people are doing it more often than ever before. The stigma is declining.
    And yet...mental health isn't improving.
    What we haven't done is train enough professionals or spend the money.
    Crucially. We haven't asked why with all the material advances we aren't any happier?
    And where does this epidemic of misery, anger and dissatisfaction come from?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,836
    Leon said:

    I don’t want to worry anyone but I am increasingly tempted to believe that reality as we know it is an illusion, and in fact we - I - live in a simulation

    If that is the case it means none of you exist. I hope this doesn’t put a dent in your weekend, especially @Cookie who is off to enjoy the snooker

    That's ok. Watching live snooker is actually enjoyably like living in a simulation anyway. Certainly doesn't feel like anything humans would have come up with by themselves.

    I am actually thoroughly enjoying the two Chinese fellas I had never heard of and have for no obvious reason instantly attached my allegiance to one of them. Not Lei, the other one. It's the mid-session interval and I've already forgotten his name. Snooker is by turns the worst I've seen in 25 years and the best I've seen in 25 years. John Parrot's commentary swings from derision to adulation. It is found comedy.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,963

    pm215 said:


    Sinclair was the epitome of “throw a half finished product, as cheap as possible, over the wall”.

    True, but the cost mattered. The original ZX Spectrum was 125 quid in 1982, which is the equivalent of about 440 quid today. The BBC Micro, which came out at about the same time, cost 299 quid for the cheapest model, which in today's money is over a grand. There were a lot of people who could stretch to buying a Spectrum who would never have been able to justify to themselves dropping that much money on a Beeb.
    That price should also be compared to the American competitors, such as the IBM PC or Apple II / Lisa / Mac (depending on year). IIRC they were much more expensive.

    The BBC Micro was, by design, massively expandable and rugged - both required for the schools environment. Sadly, Acorn's 'cheap' version - the Electron - was delayed and released at just the wrong time. This nearly killed the company as they were left with enough unsold stock to bury a car.

    There are lots of what-ifs in the history of Acorn, as there are with many companies.
    We had an Electron at home. I spent many happy hours as a child programming it in BBC basic. The likes of the Spectrum were I think considered a bit flash by my parents.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,402

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    1st.

    Bonus fact: in the early days the ARM was designed on BBC Micros. I've seen photographs but cannot find one easily this morning.

    I'm disappointed that the header missed an obvious and awesome pun:

    'From little Acorns, mighty oak trees grow.'

    A subtle Blackadder reference is an inadequate compensation, especially since I assume it was put in to make sure TSE would publish.
    We were all mightily fed up with the 'mighty oaks' saying ... 😀

    When we did a joint venture with Apple, the internal project name was 'fruit and nut-...
    Tbf, @Selebian had a much better pun.

    I take it that the ubiquity of the 'mighty oaks' statement means as a slogan it is now fully washed up and on the beech?
    That should be plane to see.
    If we're going to make tree puns all morning, I maple out of posting.
    When it comes to tree puns, I think most of the chestnuts have been done now.

    Thanks JJ for an interesting header. One question- how much were the team behind ARM looking to make an enormously successful business, and how much were they tinkering to do something useful and cool?

    One of my (mostly instinctive prejudiced) thoughts about all this is that intentionality (the unicorn stuff beloved of VCs and governments) is less useful than lots of people trying ideas, many of which will fail, some of which will make a decent return and a few of which will be spectacular. The me-and-us thing again. Or the memory holing of luck as an ingredient in success.
    "Thanks JJ for an interesting header. One question- how much were the team behind ARM looking to make an enormously successful business, and how much were they tinkering to do something useful and cool?"

    To give you a better response - they were tinkerers. There was a need with requirements, many of which were to do with keeping cost down. This meant they had to be quite innovative, and it just so happened the company had a core team of brilliant people who could suddenly pivot to become chip architects and designers. I've talked to a couple of them, and heard interviews with others, and I don't think any of them ever dreamed ARM would become what it is. It was a lucky fluke, but you only get lucky if you take the risk.

    It was simply cool and interesting, and that often matters more than money to great engineers.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,227
    tlg86 said:

    isam said:
    - So this funeral will be a sort of summit.
    - Yes. It's a heaven-sent opportunity.
    - Literally.
    - Yes.
    - Better than a summit because there are no expectations.
    Pope Francis' funeral is chance for 'brush-by' diplomacy
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c99p52nmxngo
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,638
    Ouch !


  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,950
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    I don’t want to worry anyone but I am increasingly tempted to believe that reality as we know it is an illusion, and in fact we - I - live in a simulation

    If that is the case it means none of you exist. I hope this doesn’t put a dent in your weekend, especially @Cookie who is off to enjoy the snooker

    That's ok. Watching live snooker is actually enjoyably like living in a simulation anyway. Certainly doesn't feel like anything humans would have come up with by themselves.

    I am actually thoroughly enjoying the two Chinese fellas I had never heard of and have for no obvious reason instantly attached my allegiance to one of them. Not Lei, the other one. It's the mid-session interval and I've already forgotten his name. Snooker is by turns the worst I've seen in 25 years and the best I've seen in 25 years. John Parrot's commentary swings from derision to adulation. It is found comedy.
    You're watching at least one, possibly two, future world champions.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,344

    Fffs said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    It's wall-to-wall dead pope on the media this morning.

    And yet we have India and Pakistan, both nuclear powers, facing off. We have the US government arresting a Judge. We have the continuing determination on the part of China to humiliate Trump. We have his absurd attempts to negotiate a peace in Ukraine coming to a crisis point. We have an economic policy framework in the UK which bears ever less contact with reality. We even have (trying to stifle a yawn) important(ish) local authority elections next week.

    (Its actually a bit dismaying how many of those stories revolve around Trump. I need to find others.)
    If by the horrible combination of blackmail, threats and selling out there is a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, is there a chance that Trump will get the Nobel? I can't think of any situation more fitting of the phrase peace with dishonour.

    I would say no chance. People hate him.
    They should give it to Zelensky instead
    Interesting concept - giving it to him for not succumbing to an unjust peace settlement...
    It is not a " peace settlement" it is a Mafia ultimatum.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,989
    pm215 said:


    Sinclair was the epitome of “throw a half finished product, as cheap as possible, over the wall”.

    True, but the cost mattered. The original ZX Spectrum was 125 quid in 1982, which is the equivalent of about 440 quid today. The BBC Micro, which came out at about the same time, cost 299 quid for the cheapest model, which in today's money is over a grand. There were a lot of people who could stretch to buying a Spectrum who would never have been able to justify to themselves dropping that much money on a Beeb.
    But when the government was offering schools 50% of the price of their first school computer, guess which one the schools went for?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,138
    edited April 26
    Nigelb said:
    A chance but Tagle or Besungu are more likely given 79% of the Philippines is Roman Catholic as are 55% of the population of the Democratic Republic of Congo but only 11% of South Koreans are RC
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,963
    dixiedean said:

    Thanks for all the kind comments, everyone. I shall try to respond later this afternoon.

    Apologies for not being here for my own threader, but it might be interesting to know why I was not here.

    Earlier this week, a 17 year old lad went missing from a nearby village. This morning, at least 100 of us - possibly up to 200 - met up for an official police search. I joined a group of six other strangers, and we drove off to search a nearby village. After walking four miles over two hours, around muddy fields and searching ditches and culverts, I met another group who said the search had been called off. I've heard nothing official, but it looks like bad news.

    I have several things to say about this.

    Obviously, condolences to the lad's family. It must be a hideous time.
    But on a slight bright side, it's good to see so many people turn up to try to help. And it sounds as though one group did help.
    Making a few assumptions: we need to talk more about mental health, especially for boys and men. Life can be tough for everyone, and the 'traditional' way men are meant to be - stiff upper lip, never crying, never talking about emotions - might well be quite harmful. If you feel low, talk to someone. It's not unmanly. And we need to teach our kids that as well.

    Finally, it was all slightly disorganised. Each group was given a set area to search, but there was no connection back to base. This seems an ideal job for there to be an app that would automatically show the police where you are, and where you have searched, and allow them to give you updates. Once I heard the news about the search being called off, there was no way, aside from calling one of my group who I had the number of, to tell them about it. I'm sure it could be better done.

    But thanks again to everyone who turned out. There are many, many good people out there in society.

    Apols for the rant.

    Agree. But.
    We've been talking more about mental health gradually throughout the whole of my adult life. More and more people are doing it more often than ever before. The stigma is declining.
    And yet...mental health isn't improving.
    What we haven't done is train enough professionals or spend the money.
    Crucially. We haven't asked why with all the material advances we aren't any happier?
    And where does this epidemic of misery, anger and dissatisfaction come from?
    I think stoicism and the stiff upper lip are being unfairly castigated as we seek to find explanations for unhappiness.

    They have an important place, in my view, and can help people to avoid catastrophising and maintain perspective when things seem to be going wrong. Some of the most timeless and helpful advice is “this too will pass”.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,808
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:
    A chance but Tagle or Besungu are more likely given 79% of the Philippines is Roman Catholic as are 55% of the population of the Democratic Republic of Congo but only 11% of South Koreans are RC
    See the article for the counter arguments.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,571

    Alex Wickham
    @alexwickham
    ·
    2h
    — Tory MPs and aides say it is the overwhelming view across the party that Badenoch will not lead them into the next election
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,402
    dixiedean said:

    Thanks for all the kind comments, everyone. I shall try to respond later this afternoon.

    Apologies for not being here for my own threader, but it might be interesting to know why I was not here.

    Earlier this week, a 17 year old lad went missing from a nearby village. This morning, at least 100 of us - possibly up to 200 - met up for an official police search. I joined a group of six other strangers, and we drove off to search a nearby village. After walking four miles over two hours, around muddy fields and searching ditches and culverts, I met another group who said the search had been called off. I've heard nothing official, but it looks like bad news.

    I have several things to say about this.

    Obviously, condolences to the lad's family. It must be a hideous time.
    But on a slight bright side, it's good to see so many people turn up to try to help. And it sounds as though one group did help.
    Making a few assumptions: we need to talk more about mental health, especially for boys and men. Life can be tough for everyone, and the 'traditional' way men are meant to be - stiff upper lip, never crying, never talking about emotions - might well be quite harmful. If you feel low, talk to someone. It's not unmanly. And we need to teach our kids that as well.

    Finally, it was all slightly disorganised. Each group was given a set area to search, but there was no connection back to base. This seems an ideal job for there to be an app that would automatically show the police where you are, and where you have searched, and allow them to give you updates. Once I heard the news about the search being called off, there was no way, aside from calling one of my group who I had the number of, to tell them about it. I'm sure it could be better done.

    But thanks again to everyone who turned out. There are many, many good people out there in society.

    Apols for the rant.

    Agree. But.
    We've been talking more about mental health gradually throughout the whole of my adult life. More and more people are doing it more often than ever before. The stigma is declining.
    And yet...mental health isn't improving.
    What we haven't done is train enough professionals or spend the money.
    Crucially. We haven't asked why with all the material advances we aren't any happier?
    And where does this epidemic of misery, anger and dissatisfaction come from?
    "And yet...mental health isn't improving."

    Perhaps it is, but because people talk about it more, we get to see more people who are deeply unhappy, whereas before they would be invisible?

    Agree with much of the rest of your comment.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,808
    Van freed after two years trapped in car park
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c20z46p0p6jo
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,401
    kjh said:

    This is a brilliant piece.

    The key thing to me is an open attitude to risk. We don't have it. In fact, we are totally uncomfortable with changing any established process or way of doing things as we fear that alone carries risk. We don't want to take any responsibility for doing things differently because we don't understand it and we worry we might get singled out for it. Financing is done by box tick-list compliance return and not assessed as an opportunity for return.

    How many people on here know that if you use more than half of credit card limit that your credit score drops from 'excellent' to 'fair'? And then you can't access any other finance unless at a high interest rate?

    I didn't. I did it because Barclaycard had a cash balance 0% offer until 2026 and it was an easy way of me raising money for investing and betting at no cost. When I tried to take out a loan for redeveloping my garage I was shocked at the APR. I had to google to find out why. No-one told me. I tried to explain to FirstDirect that my income had increased, my mortgage had gone down, and there was no risk - in fact it was lower - but they said "the decision stands". So I didn't get finance, they didn't get the commercial loan interest as a bank, and local businesses didn't get the money spent on their trades.

    Process.

    So now I will have to sell investments to lower my credit card borrowing just to ensure I tick a box so I can access finance in a month or two by playing the game.
    Silly.

    It’s not economically efficient to assess each small application individually - they just apply their scoring system. The cost of opening up your application and making a specific assessment outweighs the extra income.
    I think that's an excuse. They could easily test quite quickly using income and affordability tests, includng debt exposure, which could be largely automated.

    It's more they're not comfortable doing so.
    You can break through that wall. Sorry long explanation:

    As you know because we discussed it sometime ago I am a credit card tart. I used to do what @malcolmg was talking about many years ago. I would take out 0% cards then look for free balance transfers to 0% cards when the 0% timeline was about to run out. I would invest the money keeping a big balance on credit cards at 0%. I built up to about 20 cards. After the transfer I tended to keep the old cards, with nothing on the card so ended up with a good credit rating and each time I applied I got more and more credit at 0%. I got it to over £100K.

    Eventually I stopped when interest rates went down and it was too much hassle to manage. Having paid off all the cards and with a huge combined credit limit we both have really good credit ratings.

    I kept my cards but my wife wasn't happy keeping all of hers so she cancelled them all and just used a joint card. She then decided she wanted a new one for day to day use separate from me.

    Now we ran into the tick box issue (ironic seeing as previously she had ridiculous credit).

    We don't have an income (other than one state pension). We are not taking our pension yet because we don't need to. We are very lucky, we have plenty of saving to live off. As far as the credit card company is concerned though: No income means no credit card. Explain the circumstances to them and they relent and give my wife a card with a £200 limit. That is useless. I email the CEO and explain our circumstances. She gets a card with a £15K limit.

    Annoying, but you have to bypass the tick box part that says 'No'.
    Thanks @kjh - maybe I should try emailing the CEO!

    The thing is my 0% balance transfer time period hadn't run out so I had no idea there was a problem. My understanding was that as long as I was making at least minimum repayments and staying within my credit limit then my credit score wouldn't be affected.

    That is not the case.

    However, I could take out many cards and possibly borrow 6 of 7 times as much and have a better credit score if I distribute the debt properly.

    How does that many any sense?
  • dixiedean said:

    Thanks for all the kind comments, everyone. I shall try to respond later this afternoon.

    Apologies for not being here for my own threader, but it might be interesting to know why I was not here.

    Earlier this week, a 17 year old lad went missing from a nearby village. This morning, at least 100 of us - possibly up to 200 - met up for an official police search. I joined a group of six other strangers, and we drove off to search a nearby village. After walking four miles over two hours, around muddy fields and searching ditches and culverts, I met another group who said the search had been called off. I've heard nothing official, but it looks like bad news.

    I have several things to say about this.

    Obviously, condolences to the lad's family. It must be a hideous time.
    But on a slight bright side, it's good to see so many people turn up to try to help. And it sounds as though one group did help.
    Making a few assumptions: we need to talk more about mental health, especially for boys and men. Life can be tough for everyone, and the 'traditional' way men are meant to be - stiff upper lip, never crying, never talking about emotions - might well be quite harmful. If you feel low, talk to someone. It's not unmanly. And we need to teach our kids that as well.

    Finally, it was all slightly disorganised. Each group was given a set area to search, but there was no connection back to base. This seems an ideal job for there to be an app that would automatically show the police where you are, and where you have searched, and allow them to give you updates. Once I heard the news about the search being called off, there was no way, aside from calling one of my group who I had the number of, to tell them about it. I'm sure it could be better done.

    But thanks again to everyone who turned out. There are many, many good people out there in society.

    Apols for the rant.

    Agree. But.
    We've been talking more about mental health gradually throughout the whole of my adult life. More and more people are doing it more often than ever before. The stigma is declining.
    And yet...mental health isn't improving.
    What we haven't done is train enough professionals or spend the money.
    Crucially. We haven't asked why with all the material advances we aren't any happier?
    And where does this epidemic of misery, anger and dissatisfaction come from?
    Unsustainable advances, mainly. Fossil fuels were not a bad thing to prime the civilisational pump but they are gonna fuck us all up soon enough.

    Anxiety about the future is a big thing undermining any confidence in material wealth. Children know what we are doing to the world.

    It’s difficult to thrive in a dying system.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,808

    Fffs said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    It's wall-to-wall dead pope on the media this morning.

    And yet we have India and Pakistan, both nuclear powers, facing off. We have the US government arresting a Judge. We have the continuing determination on the part of China to humiliate Trump. We have his absurd attempts to negotiate a peace in Ukraine coming to a crisis point. We have an economic policy framework in the UK which bears ever less contact with reality. We even have (trying to stifle a yawn) important(ish) local authority elections next week.

    (Its actually a bit dismaying how many of those stories revolve around Trump. I need to find others.)
    If by the horrible combination of blackmail, threats and selling out there is a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, is there a chance that Trump will get the Nobel? I can't think of any situation more fitting of the phrase peace with dishonour.

    I would say no chance. People hate him.
    They should give it to Zelensky instead
    Interesting concept - giving it to him for not succumbing to an unjust peace settlement...
    It is not a " peace settlement" it is a Mafia ultimatum.
    Maybe without Vance around to wreck things again and incite conflict, Zelensky can get a few things through to the dipshit.
    https://x.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1916070369762422986
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,808
    Interesting stats from Japan; the sort of numbers to drive Leon or william to distraction.

    As of Nov 2024, foreigners are only 2.9% of the country's population. But among those in their 20s they are near 10%..
    https://x.com/Msamalam/status/1915176148297789498
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,580
    dixiedean said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    I don’t want to worry anyone but I am increasingly tempted to believe that reality as we know it is an illusion, and in fact we - I - live in a simulation

    If that is the case it means none of you exist. I hope this doesn’t put a dent in your weekend, especially @Cookie who is off to enjoy the snooker

    That's ok. Watching live snooker is actually enjoyably like living in a simulation anyway. Certainly doesn't feel like anything humans would have come up with by themselves.

    I am actually thoroughly enjoying the two Chinese fellas I had never heard of and have for no obvious reason instantly attached my allegiance to one of them. Not Lei, the other one. It's the mid-session interval and I've already forgotten his name. Snooker is by turns the worst I've seen in 25 years and the best I've seen in 25 years. John Parrot's commentary swings from derision to adulation. It is found comedy.
    You're watching at least one, possibly two, future world champions.
    Mrs C and I like the snooker too. It's a cruel ..... sport? game? though, we always think because if someone's running up a century the opponent is forced to sit and watch, quietly. Can't even talk to someone.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,359
    Nigelb said:

    Fffs said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    It's wall-to-wall dead pope on the media this morning.

    And yet we have India and Pakistan, both nuclear powers, facing off. We have the US government arresting a Judge. We have the continuing determination on the part of China to humiliate Trump. We have his absurd attempts to negotiate a peace in Ukraine coming to a crisis point. We have an economic policy framework in the UK which bears ever less contact with reality. We even have (trying to stifle a yawn) important(ish) local authority elections next week.

    (Its actually a bit dismaying how many of those stories revolve around Trump. I need to find others.)
    If by the horrible combination of blackmail, threats and selling out there is a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, is there a chance that Trump will get the Nobel? I can't think of any situation more fitting of the phrase peace with dishonour.

    I would say no chance. People hate him.
    They should give it to Zelensky instead
    Interesting concept - giving it to him for not succumbing to an unjust peace settlement...
    It is not a " peace settlement" it is a Mafia ultimatum.
    Maybe without Vance around to wreck things again and incite conflict, Zelensky can get a few things through to the dipshit.
    https://x.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1916070369762422986
    Vance will regret killing the Pope in that scenario.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,401

    Thanks for all the kind comments, everyone. I shall try to respond later this afternoon.

    Apologies for not being here for my own threader, but it might be interesting to know why I was not here.

    Earlier this week, a 17 year old lad went missing from a nearby village. This morning, at least 100 of us - possibly up to 200 - met up for an official police search. I joined a group of six other strangers, and we drove off to search a nearby village. After walking four miles over two hours, around muddy fields and searching ditches and culverts, I met another group who said the search had been called off. I've heard nothing official, but it looks like bad news.

    I have several things to say about this.

    Obviously, condolences to the lad's family. It must be a hideous time.
    But on a slight bright side, it's good to see so many people turn up to try to help. And it sounds as though one group did help.
    Making a few assumptions: we need to talk more about mental health, especially for boys and men. Life can be tough for everyone, and the 'traditional' way men are meant to be - stiff upper lip, never crying, never talking about emotions - might well be quite harmful. If you feel low, talk to someone. It's not unmanly. And we need to teach our kids that as well.

    Finally, it was all slightly disorganised. Each group was given a set area to search, but there was no connection back to base. This seems an ideal job for there to be an app that would automatically show the police where you are, and where you have searched, and allow them to give you updates. Once I heard the news about the search being called off, there was no way, aside from calling one of my group who I had the number of, to tell them about it. I'm sure it could be better done.

    But thanks again to everyone who turned out. There are many, many good people out there in society.

    Apols for the rant.

    Yes, there are many good people out there.


    I think it's really hard for men to get it right. They don't have many positive role models out there and, to some extent, they're almost not allowed to be - except as an "ally".

    That'd how Tate gets traction. We need better answers.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,349
    edited April 26
    dixiedean said:

    Thanks for all the kind comments, everyone. I shall try to respond later this afternoon.

    Apologies for not being here for my own threader, but it might be interesting to know why I was not here.

    Earlier this week, a 17 year old lad went missing from a nearby village. This morning, at least 100 of us - possibly up to 200 - met up for an official police search. I joined a group of six other strangers, and we drove off to search a nearby village. After walking four miles over two hours, around muddy fields and searching ditches and culverts, I met another group who said the search had been called off. I've heard nothing official, but it looks like bad news.

    I have several things to say about this.

    Obviously, condolences to the lad's family. It must be a hideous time.
    But on a slight bright side, it's good to see so many people turn up to try to help. And it sounds as though one group did help.
    Making a few assumptions: we need to talk more about mental health, especially for boys and men. Life can be tough for everyone, and the 'traditional' way men are meant to be - stiff upper lip, never crying, never talking about emotions - might well be quite harmful. If you feel low, talk to someone. It's not unmanly. And we need to teach our kids that as well.

    Finally, it was all slightly disorganised. Each group was given a set area to search, but there was no connection back to base. This seems an ideal job for there to be an app that would automatically show the police where you are, and where you have searched, and allow them to give you updates. Once I heard the news about the search being called off, there was no way, aside from calling one of my group who I had the number of, to tell them about it. I'm sure it could be better done.

    But thanks again to everyone who turned out. There are many, many good people out there in society.

    Apols for the rant.

    Agree. But.
    We've been talking more about mental health gradually throughout the whole of my adult life. More and more people are doing it more often than ever before. The stigma is declining.
    And yet...mental health isn't improving.
    What we haven't done is train enough professionals or spend the money.
    Crucially. We haven't asked why with all the material advances we aren't any happier?
    And where does this epidemic of misery, anger and dissatisfaction come from?
    The problem as I see it is that everyone's mental health is different, and so needs different treatment.

    I suffered from quite bad anxiety as a teenager, and when i was laying in bed at night unable to sleep, my Dad told me how many people were worse off than me, there were kids dying of cancer in Great Ormond St who would give anything to have my problems etc, and that made it worse... I started hating myself for being so selfish, which made me more anxious, and so on. My Dad is a lovely bloke to be clear, he just comes from a background of tough love, where you don't complain or cry. He thought me realising how I was relatively well off would help. Maybe I could have done with someone telling me it was ok to feel this way etc.

    But on the other hand, someone who has been mollycoddled their whole life could probably do with a kick up the arse, get out and get some fresh air, do some hard work, embrace the challenge, toughen up! Diff'rent strokes

    As you say, mental health awareness is everywhere now, and it seems to encourage more people to think they have poor mental health, rather than life having ups and downs. I think the "get fit, stop drinking/drugs, get off your phone and get outside" route should be the first port of call to separate the genuinely mentally ill from those who feel down/anxious/sketchy because they're not doing enough exercise
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,138
    edited April 26


    Alex Wickham
    @alexwickham
    ·
    2h
    — Tory MPs and aides say it is the overwhelming view across the party that Badenoch will not lead them into the next election

    In which case it would probably be Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride by coronation who replaces her, as IDS was replaced by Michael Howard by coronation of Tory MPs in 2003. Or if not enough Tory MPs behind one candidate to get a coronation most likely Jenrick who would likely win the membership vote now if he could force a contest
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,580
    Nigelb said:

    Van freed after two years trapped in car park
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c20z46p0p6jo

    Serious problems pending for owners, leasers and repairers. What are the batteries and tyres like?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,402
    pm215 said:

    I'm of the school of thought that says that the key factor in Arm's success was "right business model at the right time" (licensing the CPU to all comers in a way that they could put it into their own chips, at the point where the mobile phone revolution was just starting). The tech was good, which always helps, and there were undoubtedly many points where things could have gone pear shaped, but it's the business model that made them super successful. Similarly, to the extent that they get displaced by RISCV that will also be down to "right business model at the right time" rather than whether it is technically better or worse.

    Yes, Robin Saxby should get an honour for the way he shepherded ARM forward as its first CEO and developed its business model. A great man. There was a *lot* of reticence to using ARM up to the mid-1990s, and a heck of a lot of work needed doing, not just on developing new chip versions, but in getting the tools to create chips. And the compilers. Never forget the compilers...

    But my point is that ARM could easily have failed, as Acorn did. There was more than a little luck in its success. But you cannot be lucky if you do not try, and that means we need more small groups of people doing something, to borrow Jobs' phrase 'insanely great'. Not because they will make a fortune, but because it is cool. And we need to support those people.

    It should be noted that as ARM destroyed Acorn, essentially its parent, it saved Apple.
    https://appleinsider.com/articles/20/06/09/how-arm-has-already-saved-apple---twice
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,401

    dixiedean said:

    Thanks for all the kind comments, everyone. I shall try to respond later this afternoon.

    Apologies for not being here for my own threader, but it might be interesting to know why I was not here.

    Earlier this week, a 17 year old lad went missing from a nearby village. This morning, at least 100 of us - possibly up to 200 - met up for an official police search. I joined a group of six other strangers, and we drove off to search a nearby village. After walking four miles over two hours, around muddy fields and searching ditches and culverts, I met another group who said the search had been called off. I've heard nothing official, but it looks like bad news.

    I have several things to say about this.

    Obviously, condolences to the lad's family. It must be a hideous time.
    But on a slight bright side, it's good to see so many people turn up to try to help. And it sounds as though one group did help.
    Making a few assumptions: we need to talk more about mental health, especially for boys and men. Life can be tough for everyone, and the 'traditional' way men are meant to be - stiff upper lip, never crying, never talking about emotions - might well be quite harmful. If you feel low, talk to someone. It's not unmanly. And we need to teach our kids that as well.

    Finally, it was all slightly disorganised. Each group was given a set area to search, but there was no connection back to base. This seems an ideal job for there to be an app that would automatically show the police where you are, and where you have searched, and allow them to give you updates. Once I heard the news about the search being called off, there was no way, aside from calling one of my group who I had the number of, to tell them about it. I'm sure it could be better done.

    But thanks again to everyone who turned out. There are many, many good people out there in society.

    Apols for the rant.

    Agree. But.
    We've been talking more about mental health gradually throughout the whole of my adult life. More and more people are doing it more often than ever before. The stigma is declining.
    And yet...mental health isn't improving.
    What we haven't done is train enough professionals or spend the money.
    Crucially. We haven't asked why with all the material advances we aren't any happier?
    And where does this epidemic of misery, anger and dissatisfaction come from?
    "And yet...mental health isn't improving."

    Perhaps it is, but because people talk about it more, we get to see more people who are deeply unhappy, whereas before they would be invisible?

    Agree with much of the rest of your comment.
    My mental health has been the worst when my self-esteem has been hit and I don't think I'm appreciated or valued enough, and you can spiral down.

    Status and recognition is hugely important to men.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,571
    HYUFD said:


    Alex Wickham
    @alexwickham
    ·
    2h
    — Tory MPs and aides say it is the overwhelming view across the party that Badenoch will not lead them into the next election

    In which case it would probably be Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride by coronation who replaces her, as IDS was replaced by Michael Howard by coronation of Tory MPs in 2003. Or if not enough Tory MPs behind one candidate to get a coronation most likely Jenrick who would likely win the membership vote now if he could force a contest
    Jenrick's gang are not going to allow a Stride coronation surely?
  • ajbajb Posts: 155
    HYUFD said:

    Plenty of heads of state at the Pope's funeral, including Trump, Macron, the President of Germany, Milei, the King of Spain and Prince William and Zelensky. A reminder he was a head of state of the Vatican city as well as head of the Roman Catholic church

    That's not why they're there. All those people wouldn't have gone to the funeral of the head of state of Vanuatu
  • isamisam Posts: 41,349


    Alex Wickham
    @alexwickham
    ·
    2h
    — Tory MPs and aides say it is the overwhelming view across the party that Badenoch will not lead them into the next election

    That would be a shame. The opportunity for the Right to have a black female leader shouldn't be wasted. People fed up with woke etc should be straining every sinew to make it work, and I would include Farage in that
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,848
    ...
    HYUFD said:


    Alex Wickham
    @alexwickham
    ·
    2h
    — Tory MPs and aides say it is the overwhelming view across the party that Badenoch will not lead them into the next election

    In which case it would probably be Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride by coronation who replaces her, as IDS was replaced by Michael Howard by coronation of Tory MPs in 2003. Or if not enough Tory MPs behind one candidate to get a coronation most likely Jenrick who would likely win the membership vote now if he could force a contest
    Er, no.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,344
    HYUFD said:


    Alex Wickham
    @alexwickham
    ·
    2h
    — Tory MPs and aides say it is the overwhelming view across the party that Badenoch will not lead them into the next election

    In which case it would probably be Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride by coronation who replaces her, as IDS was replaced by Michael Howard by coronation of Tory MPs in 2003. Or if not enough Tory MPs behind one candidate to get a coronation most likely Jenrick who would likely win the membership vote now if he could force a contest
    Are you sure you are not wish casting rather than repeating the anticipated reality?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,580
    One male mental health issue, this has just appeared on the Essex section of the BBC News page.
    "A dad said he had applied to send his son to a new school after the head teacher imposed hour-long detentions for pupils talking in corridors between lessons."

    Apparently the lad has problems if he can't say something to someone, and while I have some sympathy with those who say he should just keep it buttoned until an official break I seem to recall that a brief conversation after a lesson wa the norm even in the rather tightly disciplined school I attended.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,292

    HYUFD said:


    Alex Wickham
    @alexwickham
    ·
    2h
    — Tory MPs and aides say it is the overwhelming view across the party that Badenoch will not lead them into the next election

    In which case it would probably be Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride by coronation who replaces her, as IDS was replaced by Michael Howard by coronation of Tory MPs in 2003. Or if not enough Tory MPs behind one candidate to get a coronation most likely Jenrick who would likely win the membership vote now if he could force a contest
    Jenrick's gang are not going to allow a Stride coronation surely?
    He would walk it.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,402

    dixiedean said:

    Thanks for all the kind comments, everyone. I shall try to respond later this afternoon.

    Apologies for not being here for my own threader, but it might be interesting to know why I was not here.

    Earlier this week, a 17 year old lad went missing from a nearby village. This morning, at least 100 of us - possibly up to 200 - met up for an official police search. I joined a group of six other strangers, and we drove off to search a nearby village. After walking four miles over two hours, around muddy fields and searching ditches and culverts, I met another group who said the search had been called off. I've heard nothing official, but it looks like bad news.

    I have several things to say about this.

    Obviously, condolences to the lad's family. It must be a hideous time.
    But on a slight bright side, it's good to see so many people turn up to try to help. And it sounds as though one group did help.
    Making a few assumptions: we need to talk more about mental health, especially for boys and men. Life can be tough for everyone, and the 'traditional' way men are meant to be - stiff upper lip, never crying, never talking about emotions - might well be quite harmful. If you feel low, talk to someone. It's not unmanly. And we need to teach our kids that as well.

    Finally, it was all slightly disorganised. Each group was given a set area to search, but there was no connection back to base. This seems an ideal job for there to be an app that would automatically show the police where you are, and where you have searched, and allow them to give you updates. Once I heard the news about the search being called off, there was no way, aside from calling one of my group who I had the number of, to tell them about it. I'm sure it could be better done.

    But thanks again to everyone who turned out. There are many, many good people out there in society.

    Apols for the rant.

    Agree. But.
    We've been talking more about mental health gradually throughout the whole of my adult life. More and more people are doing it more often than ever before. The stigma is declining.
    And yet...mental health isn't improving.
    What we haven't done is train enough professionals or spend the money.
    Crucially. We haven't asked why with all the material advances we aren't any happier?
    And where does this epidemic of misery, anger and dissatisfaction come from?
    "And yet...mental health isn't improving."

    Perhaps it is, but because people talk about it more, we get to see more people who are deeply unhappy, whereas before they would be invisible?

    Agree with much of the rest of your comment.
    My mental health has been the worst when my self-esteem has been hit and I don't think I'm appreciated or valued enough, and you can spiral down.

    Status and recognition is hugely important to men.
    Oddly enough, they're not to me. I'm pretty much a nobody, and I'm pretty much happy with that. I wonder whether introversion vs extroversion character traits play a part?

    (Having said that, I do maintain a website. Is that a search for status and recognition?)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,580
    ajb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Plenty of heads of state at the Pope's funeral, including Trump, Macron, the President of Germany, Milei, the King of Spain and Prince William and Zelensky. A reminder he was a head of state of the Vatican city as well as head of the Roman Catholic church

    That's not why they're there. All those people wouldn't have gone to the funeral of the head of state of Vanuatu
    They couldn't have all got on the island. Not with their security teams and whatever.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,280
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:


    Alex Wickham
    @alexwickham
    ·
    2h
    — Tory MPs and aides say it is the overwhelming view across the party that Badenoch will not lead them into the next election

    In which case it would probably be Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride by coronation who replaces her, as IDS was replaced by Michael Howard by coronation of Tory MPs in 2003. Or if not enough Tory MPs behind one candidate to get a coronation most likely Jenrick who would likely win the membership vote now if he could force a contest
    Jenrick's gang are not going to allow a Stride coronation surely?
    He would walk it.
    I doubt he would put in the hard yards if he won though.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,349
    Good acting from Ed Davey, but I was sure the punchline was going to be another Lib Dem was the person playing the loud music on the train

    https://x.com/libdems/status/1915453112770269600?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • dixiedean said:

    Thanks for all the kind comments, everyone. I shall try to respond later this afternoon.

    Apologies for not being here for my own threader, but it might be interesting to know why I was not here.

    Earlier this week, a 17 year old lad went missing from a nearby village. This morning, at least 100 of us - possibly up to 200 - met up for an official police search. I joined a group of six other strangers, and we drove off to search a nearby village. After walking four miles over two hours, around muddy fields and searching ditches and culverts, I met another group who said the search had been called off. I've heard nothing official, but it looks like bad news.

    I have several things to say about this.

    Obviously, condolences to the lad's family. It must be a hideous time.
    But on a slight bright side, it's good to see so many people turn up to try to help. And it sounds as though one group did help.
    Making a few assumptions: we need to talk more about mental health, especially for boys and men. Life can be tough for everyone, and the 'traditional' way men are meant to be - stiff upper lip, never crying, never talking about emotions - might well be quite harmful. If you feel low, talk to someone. It's not unmanly. And we need to teach our kids that as well.

    Finally, it was all slightly disorganised. Each group was given a set area to search, but there was no connection back to base. This seems an ideal job for there to be an app that would automatically show the police where you are, and where you have searched, and allow them to give you updates. Once I heard the news about the search being called off, there was no way, aside from calling one of my group who I had the number of, to tell them about it. I'm sure it could be better done.

    But thanks again to everyone who turned out. There are many, many good people out there in society.

    Apols for the rant.

    Agree. But.
    We've been talking more about mental health gradually throughout the whole of my adult life. More and more people are doing it more often than ever before. The stigma is declining.
    And yet...mental health isn't improving.
    What we haven't done is train enough professionals or spend the money.
    Crucially. We haven't asked why with all the material advances we aren't any happier?
    And where does this epidemic of misery, anger and dissatisfaction come from?
    "And yet...mental health isn't improving."

    Perhaps it is, but because people talk about it more, we get to see more people who are deeply unhappy, whereas before they would be invisible?

    Agree with much of the rest of your comment.
    My mental health has been the worst when my self-esteem has been hit and I don't think I'm appreciated or valued enough, and you can spiral down.

    Status and recognition is hugely important to men.
    Being kind to your mates is important.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,138
    Cardinal Robert Saul from Guinea emerges as conservative cardinals favourite to succeed Pope Francis

    https://www.foxnews.com/world/5-quotes-from-cardinal-robert-sarah-favorite-among-conservatives-succeed-pope-francis
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,401

    dixiedean said:

    Thanks for all the kind comments, everyone. I shall try to respond later this afternoon.

    Apologies for not being here for my own threader, but it might be interesting to know why I was not here.

    Earlier this week, a 17 year old lad went missing from a nearby village. This morning, at least 100 of us - possibly up to 200 - met up for an official police search. I joined a group of six other strangers, and we drove off to search a nearby village. After walking four miles over two hours, around muddy fields and searching ditches and culverts, I met another group who said the search had been called off. I've heard nothing official, but it looks like bad news.

    I have several things to say about this.

    Obviously, condolences to the lad's family. It must be a hideous time.
    But on aand bright side, it's good to see so many people turn up to try to help. And it sounds as though one group did help.
    Making a few assumptions: we need to talk more about mental health, especially for boys and men. Life can be tough for everyone, and the 'traditional' way men are meant to be - stiff upper lip, never crying, never talking about emotions - might well be quite harmful. If you feel low, talk to someone. It's not unmanly. And we need to teach our kids that as well.

    Finally, it was all slightly disorganised. Each group was given a set area to search, but there was no connection back to base. This seems an ideal job for there to be an app that would automatically show the police where you are, and where you have searched, and allow them to give you updates. Once I heard the news about the search being called off, there was no way, aside from calling one of my group who I had the number of, to tell them about it. I'm sure it could be better done.

    But thanks again to everyone who turned out. There are many, many good people out there in society.

    Apols for the rant.

    Agree. But.
    We've been talking more about mental health gradually throughout the whole of my adult life. More and more people are doing it more often than ever before. The stigma is declining.
    And yet...mental health isn't improving.
    What we haven't done is train enough professionals or spend the money.
    Crucially. We haven't asked why with all the material advances we aren't any happier?
    And where does this epidemic of misery, anger and dissatisfaction come from?
    "And yet...mental health isn't improving."

    Perhaps it is, but because people talk about it more, we get to see more people who are deeply unhappy, whereas before they would be invisible?

    Agree with much of the rest of your comment.
    My mental health has been the worst when my self-esteem has been hit and I don't think I'm appreciated or valued enough, and you can spiral down.

    Status and recognition is hugely important to men.
    Oddly enough, they're not to me. I'm pretty much a nobody, and I'm pretty much happy with that. I wonder whether introversion vs extroversion character traits play a part?

    (Having said that, I do maintain a website. Is that a search for status and recognition?)
    Status and recognition doesn't necessarily mean publicly, of course.

    You could take pride in your walking prowess and achievements, or detailed knowledge of transport or industry, for example.

    But you have to have something.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,401

    dixiedean said:

    Thanks for all the kind comments, everyone. I shall try to respond later this afternoon.

    Apologies for not being here for my own threader, but it might be interesting to know why I was not here.

    Earlier this week, a 17 year old lad went missing from a nearby village. This morning, at least 100 of us - possibly up to 200 - met up for an official police search. I joined a group of six other strangers, and we drove off to search a nearby village. After walking four miles over two hours, around muddy fields and searching ditches and culverts, I met another group who said the search had been called off. I've heard nothing official, but it looks like bad news.

    I have several things to say about this.

    Obviously, condolences to the lad's family. It must be a hideous time.
    But on a slight bright side, it's good to see so many people turn up to try to help. And it sounds as though one group did help.
    Making a few assumptions: we need to talk more about mental health, especially for boys and men. Life can be tough for everyone, and the 'traditional' way men are meant to be - stiff upper lip, never crying, never talking about emotions - might well be quite harmful. If you feel low, talk to someone. It's not unmanly. And we need to teach our kids that as well.

    Finally, it was all slightly disorganised. Each group was given a set area to search, but there was no connection back to base. This seems an ideal job for there to be an app that would automatically show the police where you are, and where you have searched, and allow them to give you updates. Once I heard the news about the search being called off, there was no way, aside from calling one of my group who I had the number of, to tell them about it. I'm sure it could be better done.

    But thanks again to everyone who turned out. There are many, many good people out there in society.

    Apols for the rant.

    Agree. But.
    We've been talking more about mental health gradually throughout the whole of my adult life. More and more people are doing it more often than ever before. The stigma is declining.
    And yet...mental health isn't improving.
    What we haven't done is train enough professionals or spend the money.
    Crucially. We haven't asked why with all the material advances we aren't any happier?
    And where does this epidemic of misery, anger and dissatisfaction come from?
    "And yet...mental health isn't improving."

    Perhaps it is, but because people talk about it more, we get to see more people who are deeply unhappy, whereas before they would be invisible?

    Agree with much of the rest of your comment.
    My mental health has been the worst when my self-esteem has been hit and I don't think I'm appreciated or valued enough, and you can spiral down.

    Status and recognition is hugely important to men.
    Being kind to your mates is important.
    Yes, your mates are hugely important.

    Guys do find it hard to open up though, and prefer to crack jokes.

    Funnily enough, that's not always a problem - black humour and letting off steam is important as well as fun - but there needs to be a place for "the chat" if needed, as well.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,848
    edited April 26
    Very good thread by Josias. Something of a tease as it suggests no immediate political solutions, just a pithy summary of the problem and a call to action.

    It would be good to see this turned into a series.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,737

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    An interesting listen, a conversation on The Weekly Show between Jon Stewart and Rory Stewart.

    Good Saturday morning background.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=at-smySDPNU

    I switched it off, Robinson's gleeful banality in fckng overdrive just too much.
    It's a podcast of a conversation; I did not see any Robinsons :smile: .
    Apols, reply should have been to @boulay


    '“Look at his shoes, a down to earth, simple man, one of us”

    No, not TSE but a quote from Radcliffe just now on Today, English chap in charge of the Dominicans about the pope.'

    'I switched it off, Robinson's gleeful banality in fckng overdrive just too much.'
    Who'd have thought the Italians could organise something like this with such quiet dignity. It's difficult not to compare it with the general trashiness that emanates from the US at the moment. Hopefully it might be a cue for a Western world reset.
    Though the next Pope may well not be from the Western world, plenty of African and Asian cardinals in the congregation this morning and Francis himself was of course Argentine which is borderline western at best
    Argentine of Italian heritage.
    On the news yesterday they called him "the first non-European Pope" which of course is bollocks. (Peter was from what is now the Golan Heights and plenty of Hellenised Asians folliwed). Not sure when the last non-European one was, though.

    I did think Francis was the best way they could find to elect an Italian, without appearing to do so
    Gregory III (731-741) was the last non-European Pope before Francis. He was from Syria.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,138

    HYUFD said:


    Alex Wickham
    @alexwickham
    ·
    2h
    — Tory MPs and aides say it is the overwhelming view across the party that Badenoch will not lead them into the next election

    In which case it would probably be Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride by coronation who replaces her, as IDS was replaced by Michael Howard by coronation of Tory MPs in 2003. Or if not enough Tory MPs behind one candidate to get a coronation most likely Jenrick who would likely win the membership vote now if he could force a contest
    Jenrick's gang are not going to allow a Stride coronation surely?
    Badenoch and Cleverly got 65% of Tory MPs votes combined in the final MPs round of the Tory leadership last year, their votes would likely largely transfer en masse to Stride if Badenoch was removed to keep out Jenrick.

    In the October 2022 Tory leadership contest after Truss resigned the 1922 cttee stated each candidate needed a third of Tory MPs behind them to be nominated, only Sunak met that threshold and so was effectively elected by coronation.

    Jenrick got 34% of Tory MPs in the final round last year so could just about force a contest to the membership with Stride, which he would likely win. Hence it is a risk for Tory MPs who dislike Badenoch but hate Jenrick even more to no confidence her. It is close though and would only need a handful of Jenrick backing MPs to shift to Stride to enable a coronation
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,401

    Very good thread by Josias. Something of a tease as it suggests no immediate political solutions, just a pithy summary of the problem and a call to action.

    It would be good to see this turned into a series.

    It would require political leadership, detailed understanding of risk, hard work on regulation and flexibility thereof, where appropriate, repeal of some silly laws, and more comfort with people taking risk and making decisions and supporting them where they do it (because they will occasionally fail and get it wrong) and not hanging them out to dry instead.

    How likely is that?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,292

    dixiedean said:

    Thanks for all the kind comments, everyone. I shall try to respond later this afternoon.

    Apologies for not being here for my own threader, but it might be interesting to know why I was not here.

    Earlier this week, a 17 year old lad went missing from a nearby village. This morning, at least 100 of us - possibly up to 200 - met up for an official police search. I joined a group of six other strangers, and we drove off to search a nearby village. After walking four miles over two hours, around muddy fields and searching ditches and culverts, I met another group who said the search had been called off. I've heard nothing official, but it looks like bad news.

    I have several things to say about this.

    Obviously, condolences to the lad's family. It must be a hideous time.
    But on a slight bright side, it's good to see so many people turn up to try to help. And it sounds as though one group did help.
    Making a few assumptions: we need to talk more about mental health, especially for boys and men. Life can be tough for everyone, and the 'traditional' way men are meant to be - stiff upper lip, never crying, never talking about emotions - might well be quite harmful. If you feel low, talk to someone. It's not unmanly. And we need to teach our kids that as well.

    Finally, it was all slightly disorganised. Each group was given a set area to search, but there was no connection back to base. This seems an ideal job for there to be an app that would automatically show the police where you are, and where you have searched, and allow them to give you updates. Once I heard the news about the search being called off, there was no way, aside from calling one of my group who I had the number of, to tell them about it. I'm sure it could be better done.

    But thanks again to everyone who turned out. There are many, many good people out there in society.

    Apols for the rant.

    Agree. But.
    We've been talking more about mental health gradually throughout the whole of my adult life. More and more people are doing it more often than ever before. The stigma is declining.
    And yet...mental health isn't improving.
    What we haven't done is train enough professionals or spend the money.
    Crucially. We haven't asked why with all the material advances we aren't any happier?
    And where does this epidemic of misery, anger and dissatisfaction come from?
    "And yet...mental health isn't improving."

    Perhaps it is, but because people talk about it more, we get to see more people who are deeply unhappy, whereas before they would be invisible?

    Agree with much of the rest of your comment.
    My mental health has been the worst when my self-esteem has been hit and I don't think I'm appreciated or valued enough, and you can spiral down.

    Status and recognition is hugely important to men.
    Oddly enough, they're not to me. I'm pretty much a nobody, and I'm pretty much happy with that. I wonder whether introversion vs extroversion character traits play a part?

    (Having said that, I do maintain a website. Is that a search for status and recognition?)

    dixiedean said:

    Thanks for all the kind comments, everyone. I shall try to respond later this afternoon.

    Apologies for not being here for my own threader, but it might be interesting to know why I was not here.

    Earlier this week, a 17 year old lad went missing from a nearby village. This morning, at least 100 of us - possibly up to 200 - met up for an official police search. I joined a group of six other strangers, and we drove off to search a nearby village. After walking four miles over two hours, around muddy fields and searching ditches and culverts, I met another group who said the search had been called off. I've heard nothing official, but it looks like bad news.

    I have several things to say about this.

    Obviously, condolences to the lad's family. It must be a hideous time.
    But on a slight bright side, it's good to see so many people turn up to try to help. And it sounds as though one group did help.
    Making a few assumptions: we need to talk more about mental health, especially for boys and men. Life can be tough for everyone, and the 'traditional' way men are meant to be - stiff upper lip, never crying, never talking about emotions - might well be quite harmful. If you feel low, talk to someone. It's not unmanly. And we need to teach our kids that as well.

    Finally, it was all slightly disorganised. Each group was given a set area to search, but there was no connection back to base. This seems an ideal job for there to be an app that would automatically show the police where you are, and where you have searched, and allow them to give you updates. Once I heard the news about the search being called off, there was no way, aside from calling one of my group who I had the number of, to tell them about it. I'm sure it could be better done.

    But thanks again to everyone who turned out. There are many, many good people out there in society.

    Apols for the rant.

    Agree. But.
    We've been talking more about mental health gradually throughout the whole of my adult life. More and more people are doing it more often than ever before. The stigma is declining.
    And yet...mental health isn't improving.
    What we haven't done is train enough professionals or spend the money.
    Crucially. We haven't asked why with all the material advances we aren't any happier?
    And where does this epidemic of misery, anger and dissatisfaction come from?
    "And yet...mental health isn't improving."

    Perhaps it is, but because people talk about it more, we get to see more people who are deeply unhappy, whereas before they would be invisible?

    Agree with much of the rest of your comment.
    My mental health has been the worst when my self-esteem has been hit and I don't think I'm appreciated or valued enough, and you can spiral down.

    Status and recognition is hugely important to men.
    Oddly enough, they're not to me. I'm pretty much a nobody, and I'm pretty much happy with that. I wonder whether introversion vs extroversion character traits play a part?

    (Having said that, I do maintain a website. Is that a search for status and recognition?)
    Nor me either. I have never sought to measure myself by the opinion of others. Happiness comes from focusing on intrinsic goals rather than extrinsic ones. When I think of the people that I am jealous of, so far as ai can think of anyone to be jealous of, it's people like my friends working in Africa.

    It does depend very much on personality though. Most alpha males are doomed to unhappiness, while Sigma or delta males find it easier. It isn't always possible to change though.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,950
    There is also contentment v happiness.
    The former has been declining as society pushes wants rather than needs.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,401
    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Thanks for all the kind comments, everyone. I shall try to respond later this afternoon.

    Apologies for not being here for my own threader, but it might be interesting to know why I was not here.

    Earlier this week, a 17 year old lad went missing from a nearby village. This morning, at least 100 of us - possibly up to 200 - met up for an official police search. I joined a group of six other strangers, and we drove off to search a nearby village. After walking four miles over two hours, around muddy fields and searching ditches and culverts, I met another group who said the search had been called off. I've heard nothing official, but it looks like bad news.

    I have several things to say about this.

    Obviously, condolences to the lad's family. It must be a hideous time.
    But on a slight bright side, it's good to see so many people turn up to try to help. And it sounds as though one group did help.
    Making a few assumptions: we need to talk more about mental health, especially for boys and men. Life can be tough for everyone, and the 'traditional' way men are meant to be - stiff upper lip, never crying, never talking about emotions - might well be quite harmful. If you feel low, talk to someone. It's not unmanly. And we need to teach our kids that as well.

    Finally, it was all slightly disorganised. Each group was given a set area to search, but there was no connection back to base. This seems an ideal job for there to be an app that would automatically show the police where you are, and where you have searched, and allow them to give you updates. Once I heard the news about the search being called off, there was no way, aside from calling one of my group who I had the number of, to tell them about it. I'm sure it could be better done.

    But thanks again to everyone who turned out. There are many, many good people out there in society.

    Apols for the rant.

    Agree. But.
    We've been talking more about mental health gradually throughout the whole of my adult life. More and more people are doing it more often than ever before. The stigma is declining.
    And yet...mental health isn't improving.
    What we haven't done is train enough professionals or spend the money.
    Crucially. We haven't asked why with all the material advances we aren't any happier?
    And where does this epidemic of misery, anger and dissatisfaction come from?
    "And yet...mental health isn't improving."

    Perhaps it is, but because people talk about it more, we get to see more people who are deeply unhappy, whereas before they would be invisible?

    Agree with much of the rest of your comment.
    My mental health has been the worst when my self-esteem has been hit and I don't think I'm appreciated or valued enough, and you can spiral down.

    Status and recognition is hugely important to men.
    Oddly enough, they're not to me. I'm pretty much a nobody, and I'm pretty much happy with that. I wonder whether introversion vs extroversion character traits play a part?

    (Having said that, I do maintain a website. Is that a search for status and recognition?)

    dixiedean said:

    Thanks for all the kind comments, everyone. I shall try to respond later this afternoon.

    Apologies for not being here for my own threader, but it might be interesting to know why I was not here.

    Earlier this week, a 17 year old lad went missing from a nearby village. This morning, at least 100 of us - possibly up to 200 - met up for an official police search. I joined a group of six other strangers, and we drove off to search a nearby village. After walking four miles over two hours, around muddy fields and searching ditches and culverts, I met another group who said the search had been called off. I've heard nothing official, but it looks like bad news.

    I have several things to say about this.

    Obviously, condolences to the lad's family. It must be a hideous time.
    But on a slight bright side, it's good to see so many people turn up to try to help. And it sounds as though one group did help.
    Making a few assumptions: we need to talk more about mental health, especially for boys and men. Life can be tough for everyone, and the 'traditional' way men are meant to be - stiff upper lip, never crying, never talking about emotions - might well be quite harmful. If you feel low, talk to someone. It's not unmanly. And we need to teach our kids that as well.

    Finally, it was all slightly disorganised. Each group was given a set area to search, but there was no connection back to base. This seems an ideal job for there to be an app that would automatically show the police where you are, and where you have searched, and allow them to give you updates. Once I heard the news about the search being called off, there was no way, aside from calling one of my group who I had the number of, to tell them about it. I'm sure it could be better done.

    But thanks again to everyone who turned out. There are many, many good people out there in society.

    Apols for the rant.

    Agree. But.
    We've been talking more about mental health gradually throughout the whole of my adult life. More and more people are doing it more often than ever before. The stigma is declining.
    And yet...mental health isn't improving.
    What we haven't done is train enough professionals or spend the money.
    Crucially. We haven't asked why with all the material advances we aren't any happier?
    And where does this epidemic of misery, anger and dissatisfaction come from?
    "And yet...mental health isn't improving."

    Perhaps it is, but because people talk about it more, we get to see more people who are deeply unhappy, whereas before they would be invisible?

    Agree with much of the rest of your comment.
    My mental health has been the worst when my self-esteem has been hit and I don't think I'm appreciated or valued enough, and you can spiral down.

    Status and recognition is hugely important to men.
    Oddly enough, they're not to me. I'm pretty much a nobody, and I'm pretty much happy with that. I wonder whether introversion vs extroversion character traits play a part?

    (Having said that, I do maintain a website. Is that a search for status and recognition?)
    Nor me either. I have never sought to measure myself by the opinion of others. Happiness comes from focusing on intrinsic goals rather than extrinsic ones. When I think of the people that I am jealous of, so far as ai can think of anyone to be jealous of, it's people like my friends working in Africa.

    It does depend very much on personality though. Most alpha males are doomed to unhappiness, while Sigma or delta males find it easier. It isn't always possible to change though.

    You talk about your status as a senior hospital consultant quite a lot, even if you don't realise you do.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,349
    Good meeting. We discussed a lot one on one. Hoping for results on everything we covered. Protecting lives of our people. Full and unconditional ceasefire. Reliable and lasting peace that will prevent another war from breaking out. Very symbolic meeting that has potential to become historic, if we achieve joint results. Thank you @POTUS.

    https://x.com/zelenskyyua/status/1916089502088524203?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,292
    Sean_F said:

    isam said:

    dixiedean said:

    Thanks for all the kind comments, everyone. I shall try to respond later this afternoon.

    Apologies for not being here for my own threader, but it might be interesting to know why I was not here.

    Earlier this week, a 17 year old lad went missing from a nearby village. This morning, at least 100 of us - possibly up to 200 - met up for an official police search. I joined a group of six other strangers, and we drove off to search a nearby village. After walking four miles over two hours, around muddy fields and searching ditches and culverts, I met another group who said the search had been called off. I've heard nothing official, but it looks like bad news.

    I have several things to say about this.

    Obviously, condolences to the lad's family. It must be a hideous time.
    But on a slight bright side, it's good to see so many people turn up to try to help. And it sounds as though one group did help.
    Making a few assumptions: we need to talk more about mental health, especially for boys and men. Life can be tough for everyone, and the 'traditional' way men are meant to be - stiff upper lip, never crying, never talking about emotions - might well be quite harmful. If you feel low, talk to someone. It's not unmanly. And we need to teach our kids that as well.

    Finally, it was all slightly disorganised. Each group was given a set area to search, but there was no connection back to base. This seems an ideal job for there to be an app that would automatically show the police where you are, and where you have searched, and allow them to give you updates. Once I heard the news about the search being called off, there was no way, aside from calling one of my group who I had the number of, to tell them about it. I'm sure it could be better done.

    But thanks again to everyone who turned out. There are many, many good people out there in society.

    Apols for the rant.

    Agree. But.
    We've been talking more about mental health gradually throughout the whole of my adult life. More and more people are doing it more often than ever before. The stigma is declining.
    And yet...mental health isn't improving.
    What we haven't done is train enough professionals or spend the money.
    Crucially. We haven't asked why with all the material advances we aren't any happier?
    And where does this epidemic of misery, anger and dissatisfaction come from?
    The problem as I see it is that everyone's mental health is different, and so needs different treatment.

    I suffered from quite bad anxiety as a teenager, and when i was laying in bed at night unable to sleep, my Dad told me how many people were worse off than me, there were kids dying of cancer in Great Ormond St who would give anything to have my problems etc, and that made it worse... I started hating myself for being so selfish, which made me more anxious, and so on. My Dad is a lovely bloke to be clear, he just comes from a background of tough love, where you don't complain or cry. He thought me realising how I was relatively well off would help. Maybe I could have done with someone telling me it was ok to feel this way etc.

    But on the other hand, someone who has been mollycoddled their whole life could probably do with a kick up the arse, get out and get some fresh air, do some hard work, embrace the challenge, toughen up! Diff'rent strokes

    As you say, mental health awareness is everywhere now, and it seems to encourage more people to think they have poor mental health, rather than life having ups and downs. I think the "get fit, stop drinking/drugs, get off your phone and get outside" route should be the first port of call to separate the genuinely mentally ill from those who feel down/anxious/sketchy because they're not doing enough exercise
    I had a couple of issues when I was a teenager, including significant health issues, and I used to think that I was depressed. Looking back, and having known people suffering from deep depression - including one who took his own life - I realised I have never been depressed. I was just a little down. The Black Dog is unmistakable, and thankfully has never stalked me.

    I'd also agree that people are different, and require different approaches. Some people may require different approaches at different times.

    But one thing that works for me is that I'm a bit of a Tigger, cheerfully bouncing around. I take little joy in silly little things. Even today, traipsing around fields looking for someone, I took joy in just being out in the fresh air, walking fields I'd probably never get the opportunity to walk again (as "I'm searching for a missing person!" would probably stall even the harshest GOML.) Perhaps taking silly little pieces of joy out of silly little things makes me silly, but I'm thankful that's the way I am.
    I suffer quite a lot from anxiety. I've found that exercise, and socialising with other people, is the best way to cope with it, even though instinctively, I just wish to hide away.
    Male friendships are more like the parallel play of young children, so develop from an interest in a specific task, with the chats over tea or coffee not part of the formal agenda. Male conversation is also often indirect, so "how are you getting on with those brake pipes?" rather than "how are you getting on?". The intent is the same, but less full on.

    Ferry now docked, so clocking off for a bit.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,197

    tlg86 said:

    isam said:
    - So this funeral will be a sort of summit.
    - Yes. It's a heaven-sent opportunity.
    - Literally.
    - Yes.
    - Better than a summit because there are no expectations.
    Pope Francis' funeral is chance for 'brush-by' diplomacy
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c99p52nmxngo
    One of the very best Yes PM episodes comes to mind.
    https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=yes+prime+minister+episodes+the+funeral&qpvt=yes+prime+minister+episodes+the+funeral&FORM=VDRE
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,138
    edited April 26

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    DavidL said:

    Excellent piece highlighting our best prospect of getting out of this low to no growth hell we have been in since 2008. We need innovation and we then need to make sure that UK plc funds it and gains the benefits of it.

    One of our best prospects, but I don’t think it’s enough. By “it” I mean encouraging more innovative businesses to scale up here. ARM took decades to build and you’d need dozens of them to scratch the surface.

    What we really need now is something even more traditionally British. A good old consumer boom. We used to be masters at spending. We even got good at spending on the never never. Then in 2008 we lost the ability, and we started saving and credit institutions stopped lending. Not because British consumers were a huge risk, but because of some very silly American derivative instruments that nobody understood. Casino’s credit rating story is a small example of the role financial services played in this.

    But we never stopped saving. The Eurozone crisis came along, we tightened our belts. Brexit came along, we stopped spending again and saved more. Then Covid, so we stopped spending and saved. Then Ukraine.

    We need a consumer splurge, and a construction boom, and a big expansion of credit. We need to bring back boom
    and bust.
    Do you know what the UK's trade balance has been since 2008 ?

    A deficit of over £400bn during a period which you think we lost the ability to spend money we didn't have.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/ikbj/mret
    UK private net debt since 2009 has fallen consistently, just as in Japan. And as a result, government borrowing has been rising. We really don’t want to become like Japan.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/private-debt-to-gdp

    Trade deficits are not the same as fiscal deficits. As Trump is clumsily but very dramatically demonstrating this month.
    That private sector debt has fallen is a good thing, that government sector debt has risen is a bad thing.

    Having consumption under control and investing your surplus income is a good thing at the individual level, at the business level and at the government level.

    What the country does not need is to increase consumption on more imported tat, or more foreign holidays, at the expense of that future investment.
    I disagree. I know it seems counterintuitive- we’re always told that we don’t save and invest enough, and that being careful is important, but the economic history of us and our peers doesn’t back up the intuition. And we’re not investing, we’re saving. In low risk assets.

    Our long term growth rate has fallen in lock step with our propensity to spend. Same as Japan, France, Italy etc. households have more wealth, more savings, but they’re not spending so they’re bankrupting the government.

    When countries go through consumer booms most of the incremental spending is not on “foreign tat” or holidays but on everything including home improvements, extensions, new cars, eating out. And even on imported goods loads of the margin - often half or more - remains with distributors and retailers and installers here in the UK. Even more so if we get some dumping from countries locked out of the US market - they’ll be exporting at a loss which is great news for our retailers.

    And it’s not just households. Private debt includes business. UK businesses are cautious asset sweaters just like our households. Less business spending and investment than almost all peer countries.
    Ooh. I wonder if that distinction between saving and investing is the key to the matter.

    If so, what's the way out? It feels like it may be one of those problems where the sensible thing individually turns out foolish on a wider scale, but that may just be my prejudices speaking.
    Most so-called investment these days is in housing (rent or mortgage) which generates almost no additional economic activity.
    Housing theory of everything strikes again.

    It'd be best for the country if we could get house prices back down to 2-3x income and then keep it stable there - with the BoE having responsibility for ensuring stability of house price to income ratios.

    Investments should be on productivity. And investments in housing should be improving the quality of homes, or building new ones, not merely having more of them.

    Median UK income is £37,430, so median UK house prices should be in the range of £74,860 - £112,290
    Not going to happen unless fewer women work full time, especially after having children so we go back to one earner couples to get mortgages. Also slashed immigration so less demand as well as more new affordable homes being built and the average mortgage bank and building societies give is 4 or 4.5 x salary not 2 to 3 times so even if you saw all the above house prices would only need to be in the range of £149k to £168k (which would be more than half the current average UK house price of £285k anyway)
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/december2023
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,808

    pm215 said:

    I'm of the school of thought that says that the key factor in Arm's success was "right business model at the right time" (licensing the CPU to all comers in a way that they could put it into their own chips, at the point where the mobile phone revolution was just starting). The tech was good, which always helps, and there were undoubtedly many points where things could have gone pear shaped, but it's the business model that made them super successful. Similarly, to the extent that they get displaced by RISCV that will also be down to "right business model at the right time" rather than whether it is technically better or worse.

    Yes, Robin Saxby should get an honour for the way he shepherded ARM forward as its first CEO and developed its business model. A great man. There was a *lot* of reticence to using ARM up to the mid-1990s, and a heck of a lot of work needed doing, not just on developing new chip versions, but in getting the tools to create chips. And the compilers. Never forget the compilers...

    But my point is that ARM could easily have failed, as Acorn did. There was more than a little luck in its success. But you cannot be lucky if you do not try, and that means we need more small groups of people doing something, to borrow Jobs' phrase 'insanely great'. Not because they will make a fortune, but because it is cool. And we need to support those people.

    It should be noted that as ARM destroyed Acorn, essentially its parent, it saved Apple.
    https://appleinsider.com/articles/20/06/09/how-arm-has-already-saved-apple---twice
    Yes, I remember that episode.

    Apple is a good example of persistence in tech. A British equivalent would have folded or been sold, long before the things that made it unique captured huge markets.

    Similar story in biotech. Back in the 80s/90s, we were up there with the US as the best in the world.
    Greg Winter won a Nobel prize for his antibody discoveries. He was one of the developers of phage display technology which enable the generation of massive antibody libraries (analogous to an artificial bit of the immune system which dues something similar).
    That was then first commercialised by Cambridge Antibody Technology, who developed what became for the best part of a decade, the world's most valuable drug (Humira).

    CAT ended up with something like a 1.5% royalty. The US company which commercialised it became a new large pharma - Abbvie.
    It's now larger then either of the two British pharmas, GSK and AZN. And didn't even exist back then.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,197
    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Thanks for all the kind comments, everyone. I shall try to respond later this afternoon.

    Apologies for not being here for my own threader, but it might be interesting to know why I was not here.

    Earlier this week, a 17 year old lad went missing from a nearby village. This morning, at least 100 of us - possibly up to 200 - met up for an official police search. I joined a group of six other strangers, and we drove off to search a nearby village. After walking four miles over two hours, around muddy fields and searching ditches and culverts, I met another group who said the search had been called off. I've heard nothing official, but it looks like bad news.

    I have several things to say about this.

    Obviously, condolences to the lad's family. It must be a hideous time.
    But on a slight bright side, it's good to see so many people turn up to try to help. And it sounds as though one group did help.
    Making a few assumptions: we need to talk more about mental health, especially for boys and men. Life can be tough for everyone, and the 'traditional' way men are meant to be - stiff upper lip, never crying, never talking about emotions - might well be quite harmful. If you feel low, talk to someone. It's not unmanly. And we need to teach our kids that as well.

    Finally, it was all slightly disorganised. Each group was given a set area to search, but there was no connection back to base. This seems an ideal job for there to be an app that would automatically show the police where you are, and where you have searched, and allow them to give you updates. Once I heard the news about the search being called off, there was no way, aside from calling one of my group who I had the number of, to tell them about it. I'm sure it could be better done.

    But thanks again to everyone who turned out. There are many, many good people out there in society.

    Apols for the rant.

    Agree. But.
    We've been talking more about mental health gradually throughout the whole of my adult life. More and more people are doing it more often than ever before. The stigma is declining.
    And yet...mental health isn't improving.
    What we haven't done is train enough professionals or spend the money.
    Crucially. We haven't asked why with all the material advances we aren't any happier?
    And where does this epidemic of misery, anger and dissatisfaction come from?
    "And yet...mental health isn't improving."

    Perhaps it is, but because people talk about it more, we get to see more people who are deeply unhappy, whereas before they would be invisible?

    Agree with much of the rest of your comment.
    My mental health has been the worst when my self-esteem has been hit and I don't think I'm appreciated or valued enough, and you can spiral down.

    Status and recognition is hugely important to men.
    Oddly enough, they're not to me. I'm pretty much a nobody, and I'm pretty much happy with that. I wonder whether introversion vs extroversion character traits play a part?

    (Having said that, I do maintain a website. Is that a search for status and recognition?)

    dixiedean said:

    Thanks for all the kind comments, everyone. I shall try to respond later this afternoon.

    Apologies for not being here for my own threader, but it might be interesting to know why I was not here.

    Earlier this week, a 17 year old lad went missing from a nearby village. This morning, at least 100 of us - possibly up to 200 - met up for an official police search. I joined a group of six other strangers, and we drove off to search a nearby village. After walking four miles over two hours, around muddy fields and searching ditches and culverts, I met another group who said the search had been called off. I've heard nothing official, but it looks like bad news.

    I have several things to say about this.

    Obviously, condolences to the lad's family. It must be a hideous time.
    But on a slight bright side, it's good to see so many people turn up to try to help. And it sounds as though one group did help.
    Making a few assumptions: we need to talk more about mental health, especially for boys and men. Life can be tough for everyone, and the 'traditional' way men are meant to be - stiff upper lip, never crying, never talking about emotions - might well be quite harmful. If you feel low, talk to someone. It's not unmanly. And we need to teach our kids that as well.

    Finally, it was all slightly disorganised. Each group was given a set area to search, but there was no connection back to base. This seems an ideal job for there to be an app that would automatically show the police where you are, and where you have searched, and allow them to give you updates. Once I heard the news about the search being called off, there was no way, aside from calling one of my group who I had the number of, to tell them about it. I'm sure it could be better done.

    But thanks again to everyone who turned out. There are many, many good people out there in society.

    Apols for the rant.

    Agree. But.
    We've been talking more about mental health gradually throughout the whole of my adult life. More and more people are doing it more often than ever before. The stigma is declining.
    And yet...mental health isn't improving.
    What we haven't done is train enough professionals or spend the money.
    Crucially. We haven't asked why with all the material advances we aren't any happier?
    And where does this epidemic of misery, anger and dissatisfaction come from?
    "And yet...mental health isn't improving."

    Perhaps it is, but because people talk about it more, we get to see more people who are deeply unhappy, whereas before they would be invisible?

    Agree with much of the rest of your comment.
    My mental health has been the worst when my self-esteem has been hit and I don't think I'm appreciated or valued enough, and you can spiral down.

    Status and recognition is hugely important to men.
    Oddly enough, they're not to me. I'm pretty much a nobody, and I'm pretty much happy with that. I wonder whether introversion vs extroversion character traits play a part?

    (Having said that, I do maintain a website. Is that a search for status and recognition?)
    Nor me either. I have never sought to measure myself by the opinion of others. Happiness comes from focusing on intrinsic goals rather than extrinsic ones. When I think of the people that I am jealous of, so far as ai can think of anyone to be jealous of, it's people like my friends working in Africa.

    It does depend very much on personality though. Most alpha males are doomed to unhappiness, while Sigma or delta males find it easier. It isn't always possible to change though.

    Sounds very Stoic to me. I have myself been increasingly attracted to that philosophy as I have grown older. It seems to give me a sound moral and ethical base without the need for religious belief. And it does provide considerable contentment.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 682
    isam said:
    Are they discussing the internal decor for Trump Resort Kiev?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177
    Nigelb said:

    pm215 said:

    I'm of the school of thought that says that the key factor in Arm's success was "right business model at the right time" (licensing the CPU to all comers in a way that they could put it into their own chips, at the point where the mobile phone revolution was just starting). The tech was good, which always helps, and there were undoubtedly many points where things could have gone pear shaped, but it's the business model that made them super successful. Similarly, to the extent that they get displaced by RISCV that will also be down to "right business model at the right time" rather than whether it is technically better or worse.

    Yes, Robin Saxby should get an honour for the way he shepherded ARM forward as its first CEO and developed its business model. A great man. There was a *lot* of reticence to using ARM up to the mid-1990s, and a heck of a lot of work needed doing, not just on developing new chip versions, but in getting the tools to create chips. And the compilers. Never forget the compilers...

    But my point is that ARM could easily have failed, as Acorn did. There was more than a little luck in its success. But you cannot be lucky if you do not try, and that means we need more small groups of people doing something, to borrow Jobs' phrase 'insanely great'. Not because they will make a fortune, but because it is cool. And we need to support those people.

    It should be noted that as ARM destroyed Acorn, essentially its parent, it saved Apple.
    https://appleinsider.com/articles/20/06/09/how-arm-has-already-saved-apple---twice
    Yes, I remember that episode.

    Apple is a good example of persistence in tech. A British equivalent would have folded or been sold, long before the things that made it unique captured huge markets.

    Similar story in biotech. Back in the 80s/90s, we were up there with the US as the best in the world.
    Greg Winter won a Nobel prize for his antibody discoveries. He was one of the developers of phage display technology which enable the generation of massive antibody libraries (analogous to an artificial bit of the immune system which dues something similar).
    That was then first commercialised by Cambridge Antibody Technology, who developed what became for the best part of a decade, the world's most valuable drug (Humira).

    CAT ended up with something like a 1.5% royalty. The US company which commercialised it became a new large pharma - Abbvie.
    It's now larger then either of the two British pharmas, GSK and AZN. And didn't even exist back then.
    I take a Humira bio similar. I owe those guys a lot!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,808
    isam said:

    Good meeting. We discussed a lot one on one. Hoping for results on everything we covered. Protecting lives of our people. Full and unconditional ceasefire. Reliable and lasting peace that will prevent another war from breaking out. Very symbolic meeting that has potential to become historic, if we achieve joint results. Thank you @POTUS.

    https://x.com/zelenskyyua/status/1916089502088524203?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Breaking down barriers ?
    https://x.com/BohuslavskaKate/status/1915873340549431538
  • HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    DavidL said:

    Excellent piece highlighting our best prospect of getting out of this low to no growth hell we have been in since 2008. We need innovation and we then need to make sure that UK plc funds it and gains the benefits of it.

    One of our best prospects, but I don’t think it’s enough. By “it” I mean encouraging more innovative businesses to scale up here. ARM took decades to build and you’d need dozens of them to scratch the surface.

    What we really need now is something even more traditionally British. A good old consumer boom. We used to be masters at spending. We even got good at spending on the never never. Then in 2008 we lost the ability, and we started saving and credit institutions stopped lending. Not because British consumers were a huge risk, but because of some very silly American derivative instruments that nobody understood. Casino’s credit rating story is a small example of the role financial services played in this.

    But we never stopped saving. The Eurozone crisis came along, we tightened our belts. Brexit came along, we stopped spending again and saved more. Then Covid, so we stopped spending and saved. Then Ukraine.

    We need a consumer splurge, and a construction boom, and a big expansion of credit. We need to bring back boom
    and bust.
    Do you know what the UK's trade balance has been since 2008 ?

    A deficit of over £400bn during a period which you think we lost the ability to spend money we didn't have.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/ikbj/mret
    UK private net debt since 2009 has fallen consistently, just as in Japan. And as a result, government borrowing has been rising. We really don’t want to become like Japan.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/private-debt-to-gdp

    Trade deficits are not the same as fiscal deficits. As Trump is clumsily but very dramatically demonstrating this month.
    That private sector debt has fallen is a good thing, that government sector debt has risen is a bad thing.

    Having consumption under control and investing your surplus income is a good thing at the individual level, at the business level and at the government level.

    What the country does not need is to increase consumption on more imported tat, or more foreign holidays, at the expense of that future investment.
    I disagree. I know it seems counterintuitive- we’re always told that we don’t save and invest enough, and that being careful is important, but the economic history of us and our peers doesn’t back up the intuition. And we’re not investing, we’re saving. In low risk assets.

    Our long term growth rate has fallen in lock step with our propensity to spend. Same as Japan, France, Italy etc. households have more wealth, more savings, but they’re not spending so they’re bankrupting the government.

    When countries go through consumer booms most of the incremental spending is not on “foreign tat” or holidays but on everything including home improvements, extensions, new cars, eating out. And even on imported goods loads of the margin - often half or more - remains with distributors and retailers and installers here in the UK. Even more so if we get some dumping from countries locked out of the US market - they’ll be exporting at a loss which is great news for our retailers.

    And it’s not just households. Private debt includes business. UK businesses are cautious asset sweaters just like our households. Less business spending and investment than almost all peer countries.
    Ooh. I wonder if that distinction between saving and investing is the key to the matter.

    If so, what's the way out? It feels like it may be one of those problems where the sensible thing individually turns out foolish on a wider scale, but that may just be my prejudices speaking.
    Most so-called investment these days is in housing (rent or mortgage) which generates almost no additional economic activity.
    Housing theory of everything strikes again.

    It'd be best for the country if we could get house prices back down to 2-3x income and then keep it stable there - with the BoE having responsibility for ensuring stability of house price to income ratios.

    Investments should be on productivity. And investments in housing should be improving the quality of homes, or building new ones, not merely having more of them.

    Median UK income is £37,430, so median UK house prices should be in the range of £74,860 - £112,290
    Not going to happen unless fewer women work full time, especially after having children so we go back to one earner couples to get mortgages. Also slashed immigration so less demand as well as more new affordable homes being built and the average mortgage bank and building societies give is 4 or 4.5 x salary not 2 to 3 times so even if you saw all the above house prices would only need to be in the range of £149k to £168k (which would be more than half the current average UK house price of £285k anyway)
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/december2023
    There is absolutely no reason why prices need to be the maximum people can borrow and it absolutely should be (and was in the past) possible to pay for a house on a single income.

    The second income ought to be able to go on luxuries, holidays, improve quality of life, or choosing to not have one - not just be pissed away on increased costs.

    If supply exceeds demand then prices come down. Competition keeps prices down, the problem is a lack of competition and a restricted market drives prices up currently.
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