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A Cambridge madness – politicalbetting.com
A Cambridge madness – politicalbetting.com
A little over four decades ago, a small Cambridge computer company had a big problem. Their biggest-selling product used an elderly microprocessor, just as their competitors were moving to more capable ones. However, those processors were stopgaps that would soon be overhauled. So, the company, asked, why not go for a newer generation of microprocessor?
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Bonus fact: in the early days the ARM was designed on BBC Micros. I've seen photographs but cannot find one easily this morning.
Astonishing success story though.
'From little Acorns, mighty oak trees grow.'
A subtle Blackadder reference is an inadequate compensation, especially since I assume it was put in to make sure TSE would publish.
When we did a joint venture with Apple, the internal project name was 'fruit and nut-...
I take it that the ubiquity of the 'mighty oaks' statement means as a slogan it is now fully washed up and on the beech?
"RISC architecture is gonna change everything."
@riversmccown.bsky.social
Haven’t seen a Donald Trump statement tank someone’s stock so quickly since every other day this year.
https://bsky.app/profile/riversmccown.bsky.social/post/3lnoqxu6rvc2a
Off to the Crucible to see two Chinese players I've never heard of. Nevertheless, I am giddy as a brick. I'm on the 7.43 from Piccadilly, which the various online ticket apps had declined to let me travel on, declaring it full. As expected, the 7.43 from Manchester on a Saturday morning is not full. But those voices I can hear are those of middle aged men, leading me to suspect snooker makes up a large proportion of the demand for this service. Or perhaps they're all up early for the thrill of travelling through three of the UK's ten longest rail tunnels in a 50 minute journey.
The housing market maybe?
Totally unhelpful post unless we can identify the issues.
We need to make lightning strike not just once, but many times.
Who is 'We'? Is it the Government legislating for success - or the New10K - or a new quango somewhere? Or invite Musk over to live here (and pay taxes)
@dennycarter.bsky.social
The man knows the intricacies of the NFL Draft but not the latest in the first European land war since WWII
https://bsky.app/profile/dennycarter.bsky.social/post/3lnolwrgdes2z
The key thing to me is an open attitude to risk. We don't have it. In fact, we are totally uncomfortable with changing any established process or way of doing things as we fear that alone carries risk. We don't want to take any responsibility for doing things differently because we don't understand it and we worry we might get singled out for it. Financing is done by box tick-list compliance return and not assessed as an opportunity for return.
How many people on here know that if you use more than half of credit card limit that your credit score drops from 'excellent' to 'fair'? And then you can't access any other finance unless at a high interest rate?
I didn't. I did it because Barclaycard had a cash balance 0% offer until 2026 and it was an easy way of me raising money for investing and betting at no cost. When I tried to take out a loan for redeveloping my garage I was shocked at the APR. I had to google to find out why. No-one told me. I tried to explain to FirstDirect that my income had increased, my mortgage had gone down, and there was no risk - in fact it was lower - but they said "the decision stands". So I didn't get finance, they didn't get the commercial loan interest as a bank, and local businesses didn't get the money spent on their trades.
Process.
So now I will have to sell investments to lower my credit card borrowing just to ensure I tick a box so I can access finance in a month or two by playing the game. Silly.
Thanks JJ for an interesting header. One question- how much were the team behind ARM looking to make an enormously successful business, and how much were they tinkering to do something useful and cool?
One of my (mostly instinctive prejudiced) thoughts about all this is that intentionality (the unicorn stuff beloved of VCs and governments) is less useful than lots of people trying ideas, many of which will fail, some of which will make a decent return and a few of which will be spectacular. The me-and-us thing again. Or the memory holing of luck as an ingredient in success.
"Pope remains dead" is not the most exciting headline. And other things are happening.
It doesn't take into account at all people's actual circumstances, their income, their commitments, the interest rate, the monthly repayment levels, or that they might use it for stoozing or investing. It's just an automatic red-flag.
They aren't interested in hearing any reasons either. So in future I will do two things: (1) try and get my credit limit raised as high as possible and (2) always stay <50% beneath it, where it doesn't make sense for me to pay it off in full each month.
The key thing to me is an open attitude to risk. We don't have it. In fact, we are totally uncomfortable with changing any established process or way of doing things as we fear that alone carries risk. We don't want to take any responsibility for doing things differently because we don't understand it and we worry we might get singled out for it. Financing is done by box tick-list compliance return and not assessed as an opportunity for return.
How many people on here know that if you use more than half of credit card limit that your credit score drops from 'excellent' to 'fair'? And then you can't access any other finance unless at a high interest rate?
I didn't. I did it because Barclaycard had a cash balance 0% offer until 2026 and it was an easy way of me raising money for investing and betting at no cost. When I tried to take out a loan for redeveloping my garage I was shocked at the APR. I had to google to find out why. No-one told me. I tried to explain to FirstDirect that my income had increased, my mortgage had gone down, and there was no risk - in fact it was lower - but they said "the decision stands". So I didn't get finance, they didn't get the commercial loan interest as a bank, and local businesses didn't get the money spent on their trades.
Process.
So now I will have to sell investments to lower my credit card borrowing just to ensure I tick a box so I can access finance in a month or two by playing the game. Silly.
You just get yourself 5 cards and have a 100K limit and unless mental on spending have no issues. They will all offer you 0% interest money as well, some for 32 months and you can stick this in bank and get 5% versus the 3% charge.
(Its actually a bit dismaying how many of those stories revolve around Trump. I need to find others.)
Apols; I am unexpectedly busy thus am, will respond better later.
No, not TSE but a quote from Radcliffe just now on Today, English chap in charge of the Dominicans about the pope.
Good Saturday morning background.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=at-smySDPNU
The Graduate is here (free on the BBC):
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episodes/m000zpby/the-graduate
Yes. Exactly. Which, if you think about it, is rather silly - since this whole process bears absolutely no relation to the real risk.
'“Look at his shoes, a down to earth, simple man, one of us”
No, not TSE but a quote from Radcliffe just now on Today, English chap in charge of the Dominicans about the pope.'
'I switched it off, Robinson's gleeful banality in fckng overdrive just too much.'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyq7841w49o
Gregg Wallace has defended himself against allegations about him, insisting "they're not all true".
Reporter: There was a car bomb in Moscow this morning that killed a Russian general. Do you have any reaction to that?
Trump: Who killed what?
Reporter: A Russian general killed by a car bomb.
Trump: Well, you're just telling me that for the first time. Where did this take place?
Reporter: It took place in Moscow. It was a Russian general.
Trump: That's hitting close to home, right? That's a big one. I'll look at it...
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1915926450819240084
What we really need now is something even more traditionally British. A good old consumer boom. We used to be masters at spending. We even got good at spending on the never never. Then in 2008 we lost the ability, and we started saving and credit institutions stopped lending. Not because British consumers were a huge risk, but because of some very silly American derivative instruments that nobody understood. Casino’s credit rating story is a small example of the role financial services played in this.
But we never stopped saving. The Eurozone crisis came along, we tightened our belts. Brexit came along, we stopped spending again and saved more. Then Covid, so we stopped spending and saved. Then Ukraine.
We need a consumer splurge, and a construction boom, and a big expansion of credit. We need to bring back boom
and bust.
(UK?) Businesses want certainty including new product development. The Japanese go for incremental change rather than betting it all approach you see elsewhere.
I looked into it, and apparently someone using my name and address has been “purchasing on the dark web”. Which made me actually pay attention to those “your password has been included in a data leak” messages and sure enough, one of my user name / password combinations has been used “on the dark web”.
Quite how that works - surely my username and password are for specific websites or say banking apps, and they’ve not been spending my money? - I’ve no idea. But it’s intriguing. What are they buying? Dodgy porn? Drugs? Taking out a hit on a rival? Logging in here as a Russian troll on Saturday mornings?
The Pope asked whether they knew Jesus.
“Of course!” came the enthusiastic reply. “He pops by for a visit every couple of years.”
“Every couple of years? We’ve been waiting 2,000 years since his last visit!”
“That’s odd. May be he likes our chocolates?”
“Chocolate?”
“Every time he comes we give him our best chocolates. What do you do?”
@JosiasJessop thanks for an excellent header.
Good morning, everybody.
A deficit of over £400bn during a period which you think we lost the ability to spend money we didn't have.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/ikbj/mret
https://x.com/merrynsw/status/1916039681088561165?s=61
This is before CGT increases to 24%
Why risk capital if you get penalised for the gain ?
It's not great. Short straights, too narrow, many corners are one path only (so no overtaking). One F1 video I watched about it compared the circuit to Sochi, which feels accurate (and not a good thing).
Edited extra link: https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article/madrid-begins-construction-of-f1-venue-as-carlos-sainz-becomes-circuit.QNPOPW4X1ADeqPrT0fzRm
Article plus diagram here.
They will face the same hideous maths as the Uniparty politicians they despise. And the things that seem to be the focus of their campaigning (pro boat stopping, anti solar farms) aren't really going to be in their control.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/private-debt-to-gdp
Trade deficits are not the same as fiscal deficits. As Trump is clumsily but very dramatically demonstrating this month.
I am not a Catholic, but do have my own faith, and watching the Pope's funeral is such an uplifting occasion it reminds us that we must rediscover the beauty and precious nature of life and our interactions with each other
I would just comment that 'no Trump', this is not about you but far greater people than you will ever be
I understand Zelensky was applauded to his seat and there could be no better outcome of today's service than a fair and just peace between Ukraine and Russia
You are spectacularly missing the point. It was my right of way as a pedestrian. The cyclist didn't slow down, disobeying the red light, and missed me by a centimetre or two.
CGT take is heavily influenced by 1. equity valuations (whether the market is up or down) 2. Timing behaviour.
The CGT impact of capital flight by rich people would be seen only several years later.
ETA the actual article the tweeter is quoting explains the reason for the slowdown as per above. It’s a feature of how self assessment works that the economic conditions of 2 years ago drive the tax take now.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/apr/26/giorgia-meloni-awkward-weekend-funeral-pope-values-opposed
… Close allies of Meloni are attending, including the US president, Donald Trump, who Francis sharply criticised for his anti-immigration stance, saying: “Anyone who only wants to build walls and not bridges is not a Christian.” Also flying in is Argentina’s president, Javier Milei, who at various times called the pontiff an imbecile and a representative of the “evil one”.
In a joint session of parliament on Wednesday, Meloni cited how the pope “gave back a voice to those who did not have one”.
The words of Italy’s prime minister were sharply criticised by opposition parties in parliament. The leader of the centre-left opposition Democratic party, Elly Schlein, said: “Francis does not deserve the hypocrisy of those who deport migrants, take money from the poor, deny the climate emergency and deny care to those who cannot afford it.”
The former Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi of Italia Viva was equally scathing. “It is very funny that each of us seeks to grab a little piece of his legacy,” he said. Addressing the government’s members, he added: “Your detention camps for migrants were a disgrace to Pope Francis.”
On big issues, Meloni and the pope could not have been further apart. The climate emergency was for Francis a moral and spiritual crisis demanding a radical and systemic response, whereas for Meloni the ecological transition is subordinate to economic competitiveness and national interest...
Electoral Calculus also forecasts Reform will win control of Derbyshire, Durham and Kent county councils and Doncaster city council.
Reform are also projected to win most councillors on Lancashire, Northumberland, Nottinghamshire and Staffordshire county councils. So they will start having to face some responsibility, at least at local level
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_lepoll_20250314.html
Having consumption under control and investing your surplus income is a good thing at the individual level, at the business level and at the government level.
What the country does not need is to increase consumption on more imported tat, or more foreign holidays, at the expense of that future investment.
That enormous banked corner was obviously done with an eye to luring IndyCar to Europe.
It's already in Assetto Corsa. I drove it last night and gave it full send in a 919. It's a fantastic circuit but it needs a LOT of dicking around with gear ratios to get the best corner exit speeds. This may be less important in F1 as they have less low speed grip than the 919 and are usually tyre limited anyway.
Well all one can say is that it couldn't have happened at a more convenient moment.
I'm surprised at the lack of attention paid to what happened at Boeing.
To be followed by wall-to-wall "Have you seen Conclave?" on the media.
To be followed by wall-to-wall "new pope!" on the media.
To be followed by wall-to-wall speculation on the chromosome make-up of the new pope on the media...
Sad to think that in the end Arm has ended up on the US stock market.
Our long term growth rate has fallen in lock step with our propensity to spend. Same as Japan, France, Italy etc. households have more wealth, more savings, but they’re not spending so they’re bankrupting the government.
When countries go through consumer booms most of the incremental spending is not on “foreign tat” or holidays but on everything including home improvements, extensions, new cars, eating out. And even on imported goods loads of the margin - often half or more - remains with distributors and retailers and installers here in the UK. Even more so if we get some dumping from countries locked out of the US market - they’ll be exporting at a loss which is great news for our retailers.
And it’s not just households. Private debt includes business. UK businesses are cautious asset sweaters just like our households. Less business spending and investment than almost all peer countries.
Still very much a British business. Just with a Japanese parent. Conversely there are lots of very much non-British businesses (particularly natural resources companies) listed in London.
It was only after the business was taken over by Amstrad that they sold computers with a keyboard you could touch type on.
A classic was when a third party designed and sold a new housing for the ZX-81. Touch typing keyboard in a metal case. The RAM pack (more memory) fitted inside on a cable - eliminating “RAM pack wobble” which would crash the computer. The power supply was in a separated compartment, inside, eliminating a tangle of wire la and problems with the plug on the ZX81 dropping power when touched. The whole thing looked a bit like a BBC micro case.
Sinclair saw the solution to all of the issues with the ZX-81. Then he sued them….
Yet on both occasions both myself and the business I work for survived and prospered. We did this because we avoided debt, had money in the bank and could survive hard times when others who didn't failed instead.
By the way if you want an example of a business which was happy to 'sweat assets' then take a look at Thames Water.
In any case your whole strategy cannot be applied.
Why ? Because those individuals and businesses which chose to live within their means and save/invest their excess income have mostly prospered, are happy with the results and are unlikely to change their behaviour.
While those individuals and businesses which chose to 'spend themselves rich' and to 'sweat their assets' have tended to struggle and so ultimately cannot increase their excess spending.
If so, what's the way out? It feels like it may be one of those problems where the sensible thing individually turns out foolish on a wider scale, but that may just be my prejudices speaking.
It's more they're not comfortable doing so.
And, it seems to often bear little relation to your ability to pay and manage credit.