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Tories won't be in the top 2 at the next election if Badenoch maintains these numbers
Tories won't be in the top 2 at the next election if Badenoch maintains these numbers– politicalbetting.com
She does have time to turn things around before the next election (if the Tory Party gives her time) but it appears the country has concluded that when it comes to Kemi Badenoch we might be talking about a .22 calibre mind in a .357 magnum world.
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It would have been so easy for him to take a backseat and say: "Here's the deal. It's the best deal available. The choice is yours. Whichever way you decide, I will implement the decision, and whichever way you decide, Britain will prosper." That would have taken so much of the divisiveness out of the question.
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2025/04/16/i-cannot-see-the-tories-finishing-in-the-top-2-at-the-next-election-if-badenoch-maintains-these-numbers/
My concerns remain. The EU is an essentially undemocratic institution. It now contains undemocratic members such as Hungary. The Euro was way ahead of its time. The economies of Europe were not nearly integrated enough to share the same currency, interest rates and monetary policies. The consequences for many have been disastrous. Their share of world GDP has fallen sharply as a result. Their bureaucracy makes it difficult to compete internationally. Even Vance is right sometimes.
OTOH the world has got a lot more uncertain than it was at the time of the vote. America is no longer a reliable friend or ally. There is much to be said for being part of a bigger club. Brexit has added to the paperwork of trade. It has had adverse effects on our freedom of movement throughout Europe and the ability to work there. We have not used our new freedoms well.
It’s still a balancing act. I think I would probably reach the same conclusion but I can see circumstances where I wouldn’t.
They still haven't bothered to do that.
We all want our economy to do better ( well all of us except some lunatic Greens and Ed). How do we achieve that in this complicated and uncertain world? How do we incentivise investment, innovation and productivity? What sort of society do we want?
Where is the modern equivalent of the monetarist school that drove Thatcher’s changes? Where are the ideas? Just not seeing them.
However unfortunately for them Jenrick has enough Tory MPs behind him to force a leadership contest he would easily win now with Conservative members if his opponent was Mel Stride. So the Tories are probably stuck with Kemi until the next GE
(Here's the 2 minute story on another channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=df6syRYlJ90 )
https://x.com/hmjileswrites/status/1909473848010891555?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
I do not see Jenrick as the answer, nor anyone else at present, so whatever will be wil be and I simply cannot get fazed by it
It's nothing very special, really. Try and be nice to people, avoid eating fat, read a good book every now and then, get some walking in, and try and live together in peace and harmony with people of all creeds and nations.
Harder work and fewer freebies than we're used to, but tough. It's nearly two decades since whoever-it-was said "we know what needs doing, just not how to win an election afterwards."
I am getting a bit antsy again over Kemi's glacial pace though. Ok, she came out against the Net Zero deadline and created a policy commission - great. So what about all the other issues? Immigration? Crime and Justice? Growth? - Presumably different people will be on all these different commissions, so why can't their work be concurrent, or at least overlapping? I don't mind the commissions being allowed to do their work, but if they haven't even started, it's like being in a restaurant and waiting for ages when you haven't even ordered.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Do not ever mess with angry women who know their stuff. And we do. We really do.
I see that Harriet Harman has already started misconstruing what the judgment says and means, just like people did with Forstater. Well, I and others will have something to say about that and we're not going to let her and others get away with yet more lies about what the law says.
Meanwhile I'm having blood tests for my heart. And some sort of heart scan will be needed. To find out if there is some sort of heart failure. Well, I'd bloody well like to know that too - and preferably before I die of boredom - or it - waiting to be told. Am on limited fluid intake so I have to pee in a blasted bedpan. Still waiting for the breast surgeons to see me and tell me that I have cancer or some other nastiness which seems to have shown up on the CT scan in my lymph nodes and which is what the doctors have been going on about since Sunday night and it is now Wednesday evening. Meanwhile I'm running out of knickers.
But apart from that it's all absolutely fucking peachy .......
Perhaps this is more of a cultural shift in that people aren't educated to think for themselves the way used to be. I've heard & read various indicators to that effect but tended to discount them.
Perhaps the neo-colonials could apply their superior brains to the question of what they themselves would do if someone told them come on, get out of our way and stop whingeing about your culture, because we've got important stuff to do, using our superior knowledge, culture, and technology.
But the aborigines are so "woke", right, such "diversity hire" types, out of kilter with whatever's happened in white "civilised" culture in the past five minutes.
In other news, I doubt that the reason so many who would otherwise vote Tory don't fancy the idea of Kemi Badenoch as prime minister is because they've assessed her as not being mentally astute. There may be something else about her they've noticed that for them is of more importance.
https://www.conservativepolicyforum.com/
https://www.conservatives.com/news/watch-live-kemi-launches-the-policy-renewal-programme
Best wishes. Hope it's sorted out today/tomorrow because SFA is likely to happen over Easter!
FWIW, as a lifelong Tory voter, Labour voting in 2024, and would be pleased to have a Tory party I could vote for again, if they didn't tell me, I wouldn't vote for them, as I am not voting for a party who would do a deal with Reform.
OTOH lots of potential voters would, I imagine, vote Reform if there was any chance of Tories dealing with Labour.
This is how far apart the Tory identities are. They have lost voters to: LDs, Lab, Reform, DK and NOTA and it is hard to see the formula which could get most of them back. Neither Labour's deep unpopularity nor Reform's romance with a wicked dictator has shifted them back. Hard to see what can.
Now the party of the working class is Reform so they pose a threat to Labour on class lines as much as the Tories on ideological grounds, hence the Conservatives, Labour and Reform are all close to level pegging in most polls
The causes of prosperity have not changed since Adam Smith - since long before Adam Smith - he just codified them. They are immutable laws - peace, easy taxes, and tolerable administration of justice.
I see our economy as a cork being forcibly held under the water at present. What healthy polity doesn't use its own coal to keep its last virgin steel producing furnace open, and needs to import it from another country, defeating the entire security exercise?
That is a country gnawing off its own leg. We don't need new ideas, we need to stop doing stupid shit.
Anyone know what is that supposed to mean? Seems like some sort of reference to guns and bullets, which hardly seems appropriate in relation to a politician?
Sadly he underestimated the strength of feeling against the EU amongst the public, and overestimated his own abilities.
the current need is for the government to run all the plethora of activity over which it already presides with great competence, and quite a lot of them are not. Look at: NHS waiting lists; some schools sub-optimal; criminal justice; even small bits like driving tests. Once all that is sorted and running excellently well, ideas can be tossed around. Competence is not an idea. It's a basic requirement of all systems.
I don't need Hayek, Marx, or Rawls to deliver state competence, we just need competence.
To add to that, the last huge shift was privatisation/big bang in the city/globalisation. While there are gains, there is also substantial disillusion about it too. Water? Banks? Plutocrat oligarchy?
After the next GE the best result for the Tories ironically might be a Labour and LD government in a hung parliament.
Then they can win back some home counties LDs who dislike Labour but voted Tory before and Farage will have twice failed to become PM as Reform leader so a leader like Jenrick could replace a defeated Badenoch and try and squeeze the Reform vote by showing only the Conservatives can still beat Labour.
If Farage became PM with Kemi Deputy however that could see further Tory leakage to the LDs while Reform as the main party of government could squeeze the right of the Tories too
On the day of the operation he told me that I wouldn't see summer without this operation and it has been a complete success
I am still monitored regularly by my haemotogist, annually by my vascular surgeon and cardiologist both of which happened in the last fortnight and all is well with my next reviews due in April 26
My wife, family, and myself are so grateful for the interventions and look forward to the future, though a wee bit slower than previously
I am sure you will get excellent treatment and wish you the very best
I make female Bishops in the Lords as 8 from 26 at present. In Diocesan Bishops iirc that is 8 from 42. There are 6 vacancies at present, and 2 of the 6 Acting Bishops are women, who are both little Bishops. I'd suggest women amongst the Lords Spiritual will be 11 or 12 when these vacancies are filled.
A third of little Bishops are now women (23), so there's a pipeline in place for future Diocesans. 23 is about 1/3 of the total.
Like @HYUFD I still don't see a woman as ABC this time, not least because "worldwide church" representation in the process has been increased. But I think there is a decent probability I could be mistaken.
* The makeup of the Crown Nomination Commission for a bishopric is such that, whilst blocking minorities don't exist aiui, in practice a near of blocking minority is possible due to the makeup of the commission, and the vote works on a supermajority of 10 from 17. I have heard a few moans about it. Plus CofE bodies generally are more comfortable with fudge and consensus, so dogmatics on an issue can have a modest extra influence.
Tho in a sense that is everyone. Best wishes to all!
The rent seeking cabal referred to will be rubbing its grubby, grimy, hands in glee at the thought.
https://x.com/archiehall/status/1912506248047509795?s=61
22lr: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jkCmI5-JRp8
357 Magnum: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CT-2BKZgZVA
Hospital isn't easy. If you get desperate for underwear, you could shove it in your washbag when they let you shower and give it a wash with shower gel? Would dry quite quickly, hospitals are usually sweltering.
And please remember, Doctors are for diagnosing, not necessarily to be treated with blind obedience - you must carefully consider your own path back to health, and use those analytical and research skills to ascertain the best way forward for you.
Wishing you an astonishingly speedy recovery.
Forget policies. If a party leader is going to be successful and win an election they have to look and sound like a PM. In particular their speech / diction / tone has to be authoritative, fluent and confident - they have to sound (and look) as if they are in charge and actually going to get things done.
Badenoch simply does not pass this test. It's blindingly obvious. She will never win a GE.
And the ridiculous thing is this should have been obvious to every MP well before the leadership election.
Sharpen your pointy elbows and take precisely nothing at face value unless you are absolutely sure it's been said or done for your and not the institution's benefit.
And yes as OKC notes it had better happen tomorrow because if not, precious little will happen until Tuesday.
Good luck.
Now, given the Chinese have flooded the market with subsidised steel themselves and there are possible security considerations around this, you can justify suspending those principles. But don't pretend autarky is consistent with them.
- Dr. Evil.
I don't think any of the particulars you suggest are lacking - nothing a bit of growing into the job won't give her. I wouldn't mind being represented at international junkets by PM Kemi.
It is the policy for me.
If you're going to be pedantic, at least be right.
(You could quibble about the .22, but that's also essentially an American standard.)
(Though that's a .44)
It's very odd.
As things stand even agreement on the appointment of diocesan bishops, who now are not very important people in the national picture or indeed the local one, is proving sometimes intractable.
For those outside all this, the irreconcilable issues include:
women - status and function
gays - including 'are there any?' from some of our overseas friends
sexual morality generally (but oddly excluding Jesus's teaching on remarriage after divorce as this sometimes touches the lives of the right sort)
what counts as orthodoxy/acceptability in credal belief.
NB Bishop of Chelmsford or Bishop of Newcastle would do. Both tough cookies.
They can't use the UK's most capable air to air (Meteor) or air to surface (SPEAR) missiles, as Lockheed never integrated them into the airframe.
And likely won't until the next decade.
I'm interested that the Metropolitan Police have closed their investigation viewing it as a "Civil Matter".
I don't see how the Sycamore Gap felling was "criminal damage" which has come to trial, and this one was not. Criminal damage can be intentional or reckless. That Met decision looks hasty. In both cases the destruction of the tree was by a party not entitled to do so (absent - maybe - the so far undisclosed terms of the lease held by the Toby Carvery, and exactly where the oak tree is located).
The Council had had a report done indicating a future lifetime of hundreds of years as recently as last December.
The Enfield Tree is assessed as far more important than the Sycamore.
For an appropriately strong response, the Met will have to reverse their decision, or perhaps the Council will need to forfeit the lease or threaten to do so. Toby Carvery are sloping their shoulders and hoping it will go away.
This one will run and run.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp8jwjx5kppo
Though I'm no supporter of the Conservatives, the truth is parties need time to adapt to the reality of a crushing defeat and let's not call a spade a garden implement, the defeat suffered by the Conservatives in July 2024 was historic in terms of seats lost and share of the vote.
The only consolation was they finished second on both measures thus remaining His Majesty's Official Opposition but beyond that there was very little from which comfort could be taken.
How should parties respond to defeats of that magnitude? The options are to become introspective or to start asking the tough questions about what went wrong and why it went wrong and then seek a new way forward. The Conservatives seem, to a point, to be doing the latter but consulting members on policy? It's an idea as long as the leadership is under no obligation to follow any of the policy suggestions.
At the moment, it has to be "back to basics" (as someone once said). What is the point of the Conservative Party? What differentiates it from Labour, Reform, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens? Is it to be economically liberal and socially conservative? Is it to be a party of low tax and low spending and what does that mean at a time of huge demands on the public finances?
The Party is currently adrift relying on a core of older voters to prop it up in the polls - the demographics from last year are damning and remain desperate - the lead in the 65+ age poll was 20 points at the election, it's now 6 points (according to today's YouGov data). 20% of those voting Conservative last July have gone to Reform and while there are some encouraging signs among the 18-24 age group whether that will be sustained remains to be seen.
I don't envy Badenoch any more than I envied Hague in 1997 - it will be a thankless task but the rest she can hope to do is put the foundations in place in terms of principles and organisation before moving on - I think the next successful Conservative leader has to be completely untainted with the failures of the 2010-24 period.
Whehter that's a Katie Lam or another of the 2024 intake I'm not sure.
"U.S. Department of Justice sues Maine over transgender athlete policy
Case is a matter of states rights and defending the rule of law, said Maine Gov. Janet Mills"
https://mainemorningstar.com/2025/04/16/u-s-department-of-justice-sues-maine-over-transgender-athlete-policy/
Although I agree on your main point.
The National Energy System Operator may have to tell some power stations to switch off this summer to maintain flexibility in the system" (£)
https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/energy/article/solar-power-surge-threatens-to-throw-britains-grid-off-balance-x78svvxn2
NY Times blog
Thinking of you.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-17/tuvalu-unveils-first-atm-electronic-banking/105185956
In Australia, the latest Freshwater Strategy poll has the Coalition ahead by seven (39-32) in the primary bote but the 2pp is now tied at 50.
There's some interesting analysis over on PB's Aussie cousin, Pollbludger, suggesting Labor has picked up in the rural seats - the heartland for the Coalition. It may be that any Labor improvement in the primary vote won't be reflected in seats or electorates.
Oddly enough, Labor is doing worst in the Inner Metropolitan seats which are its heartland so it may be overall seat numbers won't change very much with the Coalition parties slashing inner metropolitan Labor majorities and Labor cutting Coalition majorities in the countryside but the overall changes in seat numbers limited.
Back to Canada, and a poll in the traditional heartland of the Atlantic provinces shows the Liberals with a massive 39 point lead over the Conservatives. The four provinces contain 32 ridings which in 2021 returned 24 Liberals and 8 Conservatives. The NDP has basically fallen to the Liberals suggesting Liberal gains in the region are likely.
In Quebec, a 1.5% Liberal lead over the Bloc Quebecois in 2021 is now a 15 point lead (42-27) and a 15 point Liberal lead over the Conservatives is now a 21 point lead. Quebec has 78 ridings and in 2021 returned 35 Liberals, 32 Bloc Quebecois, 10 Conservatives and a single NDP MP.
We really need an Ontario regional poll (121 ridings) but the evidence continues to show the Liberals gaining far more from the NDP than anything they are losing to the Conservatives. Carney needs 20 gains to win a majority - will he get them from BQ and the NDP and will that be enough to offset any losses to the Conservatives?
I also wouldn't write off Starmer at this stage - come back to me in a couple of years on that one.
"Council fined millions after three busway deaths" (1)
and
"A crash between a fire engine and two buses has left 16 people injured, including children. The crash happened this afternoon (April 16) on the B1050 Station Road between Longstanton and Willingham. Cambridgeshire Police are at the scene, alongside other emergency services." (2)
The (mis)guided busway in Cambridge has been an absolute clusterfuck, with several deaths and injuries put down to it, and vast construction and legal costs. Hope the people injured in today's accident recover soon. The council have been absolutely desperate to sell it as being a success, but in reality it's been a barely-hidden scandal.
Oh, and I hope Ms Free gets good positive soon, and recovers well.
(1): https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdrg65y3107o
(2): https://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/news/local-news/live-b1050-updates-crash-closes-31438387
Spear 3 - which is still in development - is scheduled for full deployment on F35 in 2028, IIRC
@BulwarkOnline
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1m
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell: “The level of tariff increases announced so far is significantly larger than anticipated, and the same is likely to be true of the economic effect, which will include higher inflation and slower growth.”
https://x.com/BulwarkOnline/status/1912564860363083969
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Sacked by end of the week?
We have the best engines, we have the best aero-dynamicists, and we used to have sprightly boffin engineers. I'm sure we can do so again.