Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

The Trump impact? – politicalbetting.com

135

Comments

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,252
    edited April 15
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:


    ‪Glen O'Hara‬ ‪@gsoh31.bsky.social‬
    ·
    41s
    A thousand US student visa terminations. No-one's going to study there then.

    https://bsky.app/profile/gsoh31.bsky.social/post/3lmuey6bflc2f



    How big is Harvard's endowment fund? There are going to need it...

    The humiliation of haughty, arrogant, uberWoke Harvard will be quite enjoyable, however
    Only if you don't care whether the US remains a free and democratic society.
    Leon apparently wants the same in the UK - unless he was just shitposting last night ?
    I certainly wasn't shitposting, and I certainly don't want the whole Trump lunatic agenda in the UK, the tariffs are mad, the Putin-loving foreign policy is all over the place...

    But the forceful extermination of Woke, DEI, cultural Marxism? The rigorous moves against fake asylum claims, against mass migration, against leftist lawfare, against activist judges, against those who are conspiring to destroy the West? - and I am afraid I cannot think of a better descrption - yes. I want all that
    Except, of course, by doing it in the way he's doing it, he's going to end up entrenching DEI.

    Oppositionialism.
    Yes, his horrific economic and foreign policy howlers are fucking up the good stuff he’s doing with Woke
    Also - Trump's way of achieving his goals is to publicly bully and berate people, which means that they get their backs up.

    If Trump had really wanted to dismantle DEI he would simply have announced that for all future grant applications, universities would need to demonstrate that said grant application would not be tainted by such policies. It would be very hard to object to that, but academics questing after grant money would need to make sure their departments didn't have that. Indeed: ambitious academics would therefore head to States where such policies were less common.

    And because it would be a small, incremental, change, it would be hard for anyone to get worked up over it.

    It would have pushed the agenda, and almost certainly made a great many institutions change their policies.

    Now, instead, he's generated a ton of opposition to his policies. And he's tried to force private institutions to bend to his will in the most unsubtle way possible.
    Steven Pinker who has anti woke inclinations himself and has been critical of its role in academia, was supportive of Harvard’s stance on R4 this evening, indeed said they had no choice.
    Greenland, EU, Canada, Mexico, Denmark, China, academe, Trump the great unifier has brought them together
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,501
    Another secret PB lurker, apparently.

    Vance’s favorite demagogic tactic, which he brings to every argument, is to reshape his opponent’s position in an absurdly extreme and preposterous way so he gets to argue with a fictitious person who doesn’t exist. It would take one phone call from Trump - everyone knows that.
    https://x.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1912144987136942175

    If you're around, JD, Hi.
    And fuck off.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,088
    Keir Starmer's income tax, which we mentioned in the previous thread, has one curiosity I'd not noticed earlier.

    Sir Keir received most of his income from his role as an MP and smaller amounts from book royalties and £5,174 of interest on money in a savings account.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvgnvqvx7dvo

    How much money is sitting in a savings account to earn £5,000 interest in 23/24, and does the Chancellor of the Exchequer, who wants to boost shares instead, know about it?

    Shares over cash: what could go wrong? Which brings us round to the subject of this thread – The Trump Impact.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,972

    Did nobody comment that yet again the economic news in the UK is positive? Strange.

    What news? A quick scan of the BBC shows nothing on the economy and the only story I heard earlier was about fewer job vacancies.
    In the most recent Economist the columnist Charlemagne points out that we in Europe are: overregulated, overtaxed, indecisive, slow, boring, process dominated, defence dormice, demographically challenged, stuck in economic doldrums and naively moral. And that as a result we live in a space where we are allowed to have life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.

    Worth a read.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,747
    Nigelb said:

    Another secret PB lurker, apparently.

    Vance’s favorite demagogic tactic, which he brings to every argument, is to reshape his opponent’s position in an absurdly extreme and preposterous way so he gets to argue with a fictitious person who doesn’t exist. It would take one phone call from Trump - everyone knows that.
    https://x.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1912144987136942175

    If you're around, JD, Hi.
    And fuck off.

    Stephen Miller is there best communicator on this subject.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PJ6zD88OChw
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,316
    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Republicans against Trump
    @RpsAgainstTrump
    ·
    1h
    Steve Bannon: We're working on 5 or 6 different alternatives for how Trump could run again and be president…I continue to say that on the afternoon of January 20th, 2029, Donald Trump is going to be president for his third term.
    (This is blatantly unconstitutional)

    https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1912193386813042995

    Given the direction of Trump's poll ratings, and how his party performed in the Florida Special Elections, I suspect the Democrats would be overjoyed to face Trump again in 2028:


    In a free and fair election, perhaps...

    (At some point, Trump reaches the point where the only safe way for him to leave the White House is in a coffin. I'm not sure that threshold hasn't already been crossed.)
    I'm pretty sure that's the most unsafe way of leaving the White House. :)
    The precedent of Oliver Cromwell notwithstanding, Americans are unlikely to punish a corpse.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,191
    Second call

    I've uploaded the very rough first draft of my essay on Hyperliberalism: specifically, a review of the John Gray book "The New Leviathans", which introduces and explains the term. It is a first draft and will need one or two passes to tidy it up. If you want to be a prereader, please "like" this comment and I'll add you to the toilets.
  • rcs1000 said:

    On the previous thread there was a discussion about Covid vaccines, and their danger, etc.

    And the funny bit is that I got involved in a "discussion" on this very issue on Substack only the other day. Someone claimed that Covid vaccines killed many times more people than the virus.

    Now, there is a basic statistical point that it is entirely possible for Covid vaccines to kill more people than Covid, and yet for them still to be a net positive for mortality.

    But I didn't want to go down that rabbit hole.

    Instead, I posed the following question: If Covid vaccines killed many more people than the virus could, then any country that was isolated from the virus due to geography, but which had mass Covid vaccinations must have had much worse excess deaths than one that experienced the virus.

    It is simply not possible for a country which did not get the virus, but did vaccinate everyone to have better outcomes, if the vaccine caused more death than the virus.

    So how come Australia and New Zealand - which both have close to 100% Covid vaccination rates, but which never experienced Covid, due to closure of their borders - had no excess deaths in 2020 or 2021 at all?

    So many errors here where do i start.
    1. The covid vaccine rollout in Australia wasnt completed until late 2021 so the figures for excess deaths for 2020 and most of 2021 are pretty irrelevant. Relatively few people had been vaccinated even first half of 2021.
    2. So we move to 2022 the first year after the vaccine rollout where there was 11.7% excess deaths. Pretty significant no.

    https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Community_Affairs/ExcessMortality47/Report/Chapter_2_-_Provisional_mortality_data_and_contributing_factors_to_excess_mortality

    So ironically using your own argument there is a strong case for covid vaccines being involved in the sudden spike in excess deaths in 2022 the first year after the vaccine rollout.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,501

    Nigelb said:

    Another secret PB lurker, apparently.

    Vance’s favorite demagogic tactic, which he brings to every argument, is to reshape his opponent’s position in an absurdly extreme and preposterous way so he gets to argue with a fictitious person who doesn’t exist. It would take one phone call from Trump - everyone knows that.
    https://x.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1912144987136942175

    If you're around, JD, Hi.
    And fuck off.

    Stephen Miller is there best communicator on this subject.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PJ6zD88OChw
    He's a slightly more convincing liar, you think ?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,223

    Keir Starmer's income tax, which we mentioned in the previous thread, has one curiosity I'd not noticed earlier.

    Sir Keir received most of his income from his role as an MP and smaller amounts from book royalties and £5,174 of interest on money in a savings account.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvgnvqvx7dvo

    How much money is sitting in a savings account to earn £5,000 interest in 23/24, and does the Chancellor of the Exchequer, who wants to boost shares instead, know about it?

    Shares over cash: what could go wrong? Which brings us round to the subject of this thread – The Trump Impact.

    100-150k depending on the rate. He should be pretty wealthy after his career so imagine has at least 5x, probably more, in shares.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,747
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Another secret PB lurker, apparently.

    Vance’s favorite demagogic tactic, which he brings to every argument, is to reshape his opponent’s position in an absurdly extreme and preposterous way so he gets to argue with a fictitious person who doesn’t exist. It would take one phone call from Trump - everyone knows that.
    https://x.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1912144987136942175

    If you're around, JD, Hi.
    And fuck off.

    Stephen Miller is there best communicator on this subject.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PJ6zD88OChw
    He's a slightly more convincing liar, you think ?
    He's forensic.

    (And seeing your reply, I realise that I typed the wrong their so I will clock off.)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,501

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Another secret PB lurker, apparently.

    Vance’s favorite demagogic tactic, which he brings to every argument, is to reshape his opponent’s position in an absurdly extreme and preposterous way so he gets to argue with a fictitious person who doesn’t exist. It would take one phone call from Trump - everyone knows that.
    https://x.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1912144987136942175

    If you're around, JD, Hi.
    And fuck off.

    Stephen Miller is there best communicator on this subject.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PJ6zD88OChw
    He's a slightly more convincing liar, you think ?
    He's forensic.

    (And seeing your reply, I realise that I typed the wrong their so I will clock off.)
    Forensic like Goebbels.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,276

    rcs1000 said:

    On the previous thread there was a discussion about Covid vaccines, and their danger, etc.

    And the funny bit is that I got involved in a "discussion" on this very issue on Substack only the other day. Someone claimed that Covid vaccines killed many times more people than the virus.

    Now, there is a basic statistical point that it is entirely possible for Covid vaccines to kill more people than Covid, and yet for them still to be a net positive for mortality.

    But I didn't want to go down that rabbit hole.

    Instead, I posed the following question: If Covid vaccines killed many more people than the virus could, then any country that was isolated from the virus due to geography, but which had mass Covid vaccinations must have had much worse excess deaths than one that experienced the virus.

    It is simply not possible for a country which did not get the virus, but did vaccinate everyone to have better outcomes, if the vaccine caused more death than the virus.

    So how come Australia and New Zealand - which both have close to 100% Covid vaccination rates, but which never experienced Covid, due to closure of their borders - had no excess deaths in 2020 or 2021 at all?

    So many errors here where do i start.
    1. The covid vaccine rollout in Australia wasnt completed until late 2021 so the figures for excess deaths for 2020 and most of 2021 are pretty irrelevant. Relatively few people had been vaccinated even first half of 2021.
    2. So we move to 2022 the first year after the vaccine rollout where there was 11.7% excess deaths. Pretty significant no.

    https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Community_Affairs/ExcessMortality47/Report/Chapter_2_-_Provisional_mortality_data_and_contributing_factors_to_excess_mortality

    So ironically using your own argument there is a strong case for covid vaccines being involved in the sudden spike in excess deaths in 2022 the first year after the vaccine rollout.
    Sure, they didn't *finish* Covid vaccines until the end of 2021.

    Nevertheless, they had essentially no Covid deaths at all in 2021, and their entire country got vaccinated that year.

    And they had negative excess deaths.

    So; how come they managed negative excess deaths in 2021, if the Covid vaccine was worse than Covid?

    Unless you're arguing that these terrible negative impacts of the vaccine only took hold in 2022. By which point, conveniently, both countries now had Covid.

    But even then, if you look across the entire period of Covid (2020 to end 2022), there was essentially no change in all factors mortality in AU/NZ.

    There are two possible scenarious:

    (1) The whole Covid thing is a hoax
    (2) The combination of cutting themself off from the world while Covid was rampant and population immunity low, followed by mass Covid vaccines worked

    Personally, Occam's razer suggests the second. But knock yourself out if you want to go with another explanation.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,393
    viewcode said:

    Second call

    I've uploaded the very rough first draft of my essay on Hyperliberalism: specifically, a review of the John Gray book "The New Leviathans", which introduces and explains the term. It is a first draft and will need one or two passes to tidy it up. If you want to be a prereader, please "like" this comment and I'll add you to the toilets.

    Something I might be interested to read but being added to the toilets put me off rather.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,223
    viewcode said:

    Second call

    I've uploaded the very rough first draft of my essay on Hyperliberalism: specifically, a review of the John Gray book "The New Leviathans", which introduces and explains the term. It is a first draft and will need one or two passes to tidy it up. If you want to be a prereader, please "like" this comment and I'll add you to the toilets.

    Sounds like I am going to be outraged by liberals getting the blame for everything despite never getting in power.....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,501
    viewcode said:

    Second call

    I've uploaded the very rough first draft of my essay on Hyperliberalism: specifically, a review of the John Gray book "The New Leviathans", which introduces and explains the term. It is a first draft and will need one or two passes to tidy it up. If you want to be a prereader, please "like" this comment and I'll add you to the toilets.

    Sorry, I've been a bit busy today.
    Will take a look tomorrow.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,972
    I voted for this government, and while it is deeply imperfect and their communications and messaging are dire I think their aims are sound and their intentions are to do good and govern well in tough times. If there were a GE tomorrow they get my vote.

    Given all that, if my voice counted, I would urge the government to speak just slightly more clearly and plainly without going OTT about how the USA, a people with whom we have profound ties and for whom we have deep affection, is rapidly descending from admirable democracy to authoritarianism, then dictatorship and looks like ending in a truly abominable tyranny.

    In saying so little, there is a growing cognitive dissonance between the government (and European governments generally) and what thoughtful people of all political colours know to be the case. This can't go on.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,435
    edited April 15

    viewcode said:

    Second call

    I've uploaded the very rough first draft of my essay on Hyperliberalism: specifically, a review of the John Gray book "The New Leviathans", which introduces and explains the term. It is a first draft and will need one or two passes to tidy it up. If you want to be a prereader, please "like" this comment and I'll add you to the toilets.

    Sounds like I am going to be outraged by liberals getting the blame for everything despite never getting in power.....
    I started The New Leviathans a few months ago but found that my lack of in-depth knowledge of Hobbe's Leviathan line by line was a problem.

    Which is a shame because I have most of Grey's books and I really enjoy and rate them.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,589
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the previous thread there was a discussion about Covid vaccines, and their danger, etc.

    And the funny bit is that I got involved in a "discussion" on this very issue on Substack only the other day. Someone claimed that Covid vaccines killed many times more people than the virus.

    Now, there is a basic statistical point that it is entirely possible for Covid vaccines to kill more people than Covid, and yet for them still to be a net positive for mortality.

    But I didn't want to go down that rabbit hole.

    Instead, I posed the following question: If Covid vaccines killed many more people than the virus could, then any country that was isolated from the virus due to geography, but which had mass Covid vaccinations must have had much worse excess deaths than one that experienced the virus.

    It is simply not possible for a country which did not get the virus, but did vaccinate everyone to have better outcomes, if the vaccine caused more death than the virus.

    So how come Australia and New Zealand - which both have close to 100% Covid vaccination rates, but which never experienced Covid, due to closure of their borders - had no excess deaths in 2020 or 2021 at all?

    So many errors here where do i start.
    1. The covid vaccine rollout in Australia wasnt completed until late 2021 so the figures for excess deaths for 2020 and most of 2021 are pretty irrelevant. Relatively few people had been vaccinated even first half of 2021.
    2. So we move to 2022 the first year after the vaccine rollout where there was 11.7% excess deaths. Pretty significant no.

    https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Community_Affairs/ExcessMortality47/Report/Chapter_2_-_Provisional_mortality_data_and_contributing_factors_to_excess_mortality

    So ironically using your own argument there is a strong case for covid vaccines being involved in the sudden spike in excess deaths in 2022 the first year after the vaccine rollout.
    Sure, they didn't *finish* Covid vaccines until the end of 2021.

    Nevertheless, they had essentially no Covid deaths at all in 2021, and their entire country got vaccinated that year.

    And they had negative excess deaths.

    So; how come they managed negative excess deaths in 2021, if the Covid vaccine was worse than Covid?

    Unless you're arguing that these terrible negative impacts of the vaccine only took hold in 2022. By which point, conveniently, both countries now had Covid.

    But even then, if you look across the entire period of Covid (2020 to end 2022), there was essentially no change in all factors mortality in AU/NZ.

    There are two possible scenarious:

    (1) The whole Covid thing is a hoax
    (2) The combination of cutting themself off from the world while Covid was rampant and population immunity low, followed by mass Covid vaccines worked

    Personally, Occam's razer suggests the second. But knock yourself out if you want to go with another explanation.
    It’s amazing that after 4+ years of covid vaccines added to most people having had covid at least once that people are still banging on about vaccine harm. What about the fact that normal life has returned? There are still ghosts out there. I noticed some very worn floor stickers in the newsagent asking us to keep socially distant. And at work we’ve just had our doors painted after someone removed the covid occupancy signs, damaging the paint.
    There is no doubt some were harmed and died as a result of taking a vaccine. But there is also no doubt that vaccination played a huge role in getting us from March 2020 to here.

    What I am less sure about is the need for ongoing vaccination. I’ve avoided the last couple of calls, partly down to the horrific side effects (short lived but really hard hitting). I’ve also never knowingly had covid. I’d like to see the science on whether we need to keep vaccinating those who have already had multiple shots. I know that covid continues to evolve but not that much.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,405
    edited April 15
    Fishing said:

    Roger said:

    Watching Ch4 get excited that JD Vance might give the UK a trade deal 'Because President Trump feels a strong connection with the UK and the Queen' is making me feel nauseous

    Can Starmer resist crawling on all fours and tell them to go f*** themselves?

    Why is it bad that the Monarchy is advancing this country's interests by wielding its soft power? That is what it is there for. The former republican Trotskyite/Corbyn/God knows what Starmer should take full advantage.

    The late Queen was about the only person in the democratic world who could keep Trump in his place. She served this country for seventy years when she was alive, and is still apparently doing wonders from beyond the grave. Even Joe "God Save the Queen, Man" Biden, no friend to this country, said it was a privilege to have met her.

    We were truly lucky to have had her.
    It's nothing to do with feelings towards the Royal Family. The UK is being asked to sup with the Devil and it seems to be going along with it. To most in this country and Europe the Trump administration is venal if not corrupt and for the UK to prostitute the Royal family to try to gain favours is quite repellent. This warning is to Starmer. You're either with them or against them and if the government want to retain their credibility with the electors and Europe there is only one choice
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,276
    algarkirk said:

    I voted for this government, and while it is deeply imperfect and their communications and messaging are dire I think their aims are sound and their intentions are to do good and govern well in tough times. If there were a GE tomorrow they get my vote.

    Given all that, if my voice counted, I would urge the government to speak just slightly more clearly and plainly without going OTT about how the USA, a people with whom we have profound ties and for whom we have deep affection, is rapidly descending from admirable democracy to authoritarianism, then dictatorship and looks like ending in a truly abominable tyranny.

    In saying so little, there is a growing cognitive dissonance between the government (and European governments generally) and what thoughtful people of all political colours know to be the case. This can't go on.

    Rather than fixating on the US, I think it would be much more sensible for the current government to work on expanding ties with other developed world democracies:

    The EU, Canada, the EFTA countries, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan, Japan, Brazil, etc.

    There is a historic opportunity to expand TPP to make it a genuinely world wide bloc.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,276

    viewcode said:

    Second call

    I've uploaded the very rough first draft of my essay on Hyperliberalism: specifically, a review of the John Gray book "The New Leviathans", which introduces and explains the term. It is a first draft and will need one or two passes to tidy it up. If you want to be a prereader, please "like" this comment and I'll add you to the toilets.

    Sounds like I am going to be outraged by liberals getting the blame for everything despite never getting in power.....
    I started The New Leviathans a few months ago but found that my lack of in-depth knowledge of Hobbe's Leviathan line by line was a problem.

    Which is a shame because I have most of Grey's books and I really enjoy and rate them.
    ChatGPT will tell you all you need to know about Hobbe's Leviathan.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,589
    Roger said:


    Fishing said:

    Roger said:

    Watching Ch4 get excited that JD Vance might give the UK a trade deal 'Because President Trump feels a strong connection with the UK and the Queen' is making me feel nauseous

    Can Starmer resist crawling on all fours and tell them to go f*** themselves?

    Why is it bad that the Monarchy is advancing this country's interests by wielding its soft power? That is what it is there for. The former republican Trotskyite/Corbyn/God knows what Starmer should take full advantage.

    The late Queen was about the only person in the democratic world who could keep Trump in his place. She served this country for seventy years when she was alive, and is still apparently doing wonders from beyond the grave. Even Joe "God Save the Queen, Man" Biden, no friend to this country, said it was a privilege to have met her.

    We were truly lucky to have had her.
    It's nothing to do with feelings towards the Royal Family. The UK is being asked to sup with the Devil and it seems to be going along with it. To most in this country and Europe the Trump administration is venal if not corrupt and for the UK to prostitute the Royal family to try to gain favours is quite repellent. This warning is to Starmer. You're either with them or against them and if the government want to retain their credibility there is only one choice
    You salute the rank, not the man. We are playing nice because at some point in the future, Trump will no longer be president. You can have all you huffing and principles, but the real world demands more nuance than Student Uni level politics.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,050
    @phildstewart

    Scoop! Dan Caldwell, a senior advisor to U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, has been placed on administrative leave for an "unauthorized disclosure," a U.S. official says.

    Story coming.

    This comes after a March 21 memo ordering a Pentagon investigation into leaks ordered by Hegseth's chief of staff.

    https://x.com/phildstewart/status/1912220035495387313
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,896
    Given Labour's NI for employers and minimum wage rises have already cut the number of vacancies they certainly cannot escape blame for bad economic news. The UK's 10% tariff from Trump is of course no higher than any other nation and significantly lower than China faces
  • DonDon Posts: 5
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the previous thread there was a discussion about Covid vaccines, and their danger, etc.

    And the funny bit is that I got involved in a "discussion" on this very issue on Substack only the other day. Someone claimed that Covid vaccines killed many times more people than the virus.

    Now, there is a basic statistical point that it is entirely possible for Covid vaccines to kill more people than Covid, and yet for them still to be a net positive for mortality.

    But I didn't want to go down that rabbit hole.

    Instead, I posed the following question: If Covid vaccines killed many more people than the virus could, then any country that was isolated from the virus due to geography, but which had mass Covid vaccinations must have had much worse excess deaths than one that experienced the virus.

    It is simply not possible for a country which did not get the virus, but did vaccinate everyone to have better outcomes, if the vaccine caused more death than the virus.

    So how come Australia and New Zealand - which both have close to 100% Covid vaccination rates, but which never experienced Covid, due to closure of their borders - had no excess deaths in 2020 or 2021 at all?

    So many errors here where do i start.
    1. The covid vaccine rollout in Australia wasnt completed until late 2021 so the figures for excess deaths for 2020 and most of 2021 are pretty irrelevant. Relatively few people had been vaccinated even first half of 2021.
    2. So we move to 2022 the first year after the vaccine rollout where there was 11.7% excess deaths. Pretty significant no.

    https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Community_Affairs/ExcessMortality47/Report/Chapter_2_-_Provisional_mortality_data_and_contributing_factors_to_excess_mortality

    So ironically using your own argument there is a strong case for covid vaccines being involved in the sudden spike in excess deaths in 2022 the first year after the vaccine rollout.
    Sure, they didn't *finish* Covid vaccines until the end of 2021.

    Nevertheless, they had essentially no Covid deaths at all in 2021, and their entire country got vaccinated that year.

    And they had negative excess deaths.

    So; how come they managed negative excess deaths in 2021, if the Covid vaccine was worse than Covid?

    Unless you're arguing that these terrible negative impacts of the vaccine only took hold in 2022. By which point, conveniently, both countries now had Covid.

    But even then, if you look across the entire period of Covid (2020 to end 2022), there was essentially no change in all factors mortality in AU/NZ.

    There are two possible scenarious:

    (1) The whole Covid thing is a hoax
    (2) The combination of cutting themself off from the world while Covid was rampant and population immunity low, followed by mass Covid vaccines worked

    Personally, Occam's razer suggests the second. But knock yourself out if you want to go with another explanation.
    If you allow me more than 1 post before banning me next time that would be appreciated. Doesnt show you have much confidence in your argument but hey ho

    1. There were positive excess deaths in 2021 by 1.6% so you havent even got the basic facts right there.
    2. You talk about Australia having covid in 2022 as a reason for the excess deaths.
    But firstly by then it was the relatively weak omicron variant circulatimg which wasnt especially deadly hence most countries had opened up.
    And secondly even if the covid circulating in 2022 had been relatively deadly it was the job of vaccines to stop deaths. And excess deaths of 11.7% showed they did a poor job of this.
    So either the vaccines were contributing to the excess deaths in 2022 or the vaccines were useless at stopping covid anyway.

    You argue in a confused way sometimes but maybe you are just a bit rushed.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,589
    Fucking hell. Birmingham expect to be back to one bin collection a week from the weekend. Our lot aren’t on strike and we don’t even get that…
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,223
    edited April 15
    rcs1000 said:

    algarkirk said:

    I voted for this government, and while it is deeply imperfect and their communications and messaging are dire I think their aims are sound and their intentions are to do good and govern well in tough times. If there were a GE tomorrow they get my vote.

    Given all that, if my voice counted, I would urge the government to speak just slightly more clearly and plainly without going OTT about how the USA, a people with whom we have profound ties and for whom we have deep affection, is rapidly descending from admirable democracy to authoritarianism, then dictatorship and looks like ending in a truly abominable tyranny.

    In saying so little, there is a growing cognitive dissonance between the government (and European governments generally) and what thoughtful people of all political colours know to be the case. This can't go on.

    Rather than fixating on the US, I think it would be much more sensible for the current government to work on expanding ties with other developed world democracies:

    The EU, Canada, the EFTA countries, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan, Japan, Brazil, etc.

    There is a historic opportunity to expand TPP to make it a genuinely world wide bloc.
    The reality that we are not yet willing to accept or really even consider is that Trumps govt have brought forward Chinese dominance by somewhere between 20-30 years. Even combined the above will struggle to operate independently of both China and the USA. And combined is really hard and fragile (Germany Afd, France Le Pen, UK Farage, SK recent coup, Taiwan possible invasion) so probably won't happen in a sustained manner over a period of decades.

    We have to choose between China and the US. One is in many ways evil but fairly reliable and predictable. The other is currently less evil but increasingly unreliable and unpredictable despite many historic and social ties. Up until Nov 24 this was a straightforward choice, it is no longer clear cut.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,223
    HYUFD said:

    Given Labour's NI for employers and minimum wage rises have already cut the number of vacancies they certainly cannot escape blame for bad economic news. The UK's 10% tariff from Trump is of course no higher than any other nation and significantly lower than China faces

    Maybe its Labour reducing immigration from the Tory record highs that is cutting the number of vacancies.....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,380
    Don said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the previous thread there was a discussion about Covid vaccines, and their danger, etc.

    And the funny bit is that I got involved in a "discussion" on this very issue on Substack only the other day. Someone claimed that Covid vaccines killed many times more people than the virus.

    Now, there is a basic statistical point that it is entirely possible for Covid vaccines to kill more people than Covid, and yet for them still to be a net positive for mortality.

    But I didn't want to go down that rabbit hole.

    Instead, I posed the following question: If Covid vaccines killed many more people than the virus could, then any country that was isolated from the virus due to geography, but which had mass Covid vaccinations must have had much worse excess deaths than one that experienced the virus.

    It is simply not possible for a country which did not get the virus, but did vaccinate everyone to have better outcomes, if the vaccine caused more death than the virus.

    So how come Australia and New Zealand - which both have close to 100% Covid vaccination rates, but which never experienced Covid, due to closure of their borders - had no excess deaths in 2020 or 2021 at all?

    So many errors here where do i start.
    1. The covid vaccine rollout in Australia wasnt completed until late 2021 so the figures for excess deaths for 2020 and most of 2021 are pretty irrelevant. Relatively few people had been vaccinated even first half of 2021.
    2. So we move to 2022 the first year after the vaccine rollout where there was 11.7% excess deaths. Pretty significant no.

    https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Community_Affairs/ExcessMortality47/Report/Chapter_2_-_Provisional_mortality_data_and_contributing_factors_to_excess_mortality

    So ironically using your own argument there is a strong case for covid vaccines being involved in the sudden spike in excess deaths in 2022 the first year after the vaccine rollout.
    Sure, they didn't *finish* Covid vaccines until the end of 2021.

    Nevertheless, they had essentially no Covid deaths at all in 2021, and their entire country got vaccinated that year.

    And they had negative excess deaths.

    So; how come they managed negative excess deaths in 2021, if the Covid vaccine was worse than Covid?

    Unless you're arguing that these terrible negative impacts of the vaccine only took hold in 2022. By which point, conveniently, both countries now had Covid.

    But even then, if you look across the entire period of Covid (2020 to end 2022), there was essentially no change in all factors mortality in AU/NZ.

    There are two possible scenarious:

    (1) The whole Covid thing is a hoax
    (2) The combination of cutting themself off from the world while Covid was rampant and population immunity low, followed by mass Covid vaccines worked

    Personally, Occam's razer suggests the second. But knock yourself out if you want to go with another explanation.
    If you allow me more than 1 post before banning me next time that would be appreciated. Doesnt show you have much confidence in your argument but hey ho

    1. There were positive excess deaths in 2021 by 1.6% so you havent even got the basic facts right there.
    2. You talk about Australia having covid in 2022 as a reason for the excess deaths.
    But firstly by then it was the relatively weak omicron variant circulatimg which wasnt especially deadly hence most countries had opened up.
    And secondly even if the covid circulating in 2022 had been relatively deadly it was the job of vaccines to stop deaths. And excess deaths of 11.7% showed they did a poor job of this.
    So either the vaccines were contributing to the excess deaths in 2022 or the vaccines were useless at stopping covid anyway.

    You argue in a confused way sometimes but maybe you are just a bit rushed.
    *looks round, very puzzled*

    It's not Saturday lunchtime already, is it?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,589
    ydoethur said:

    Don said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the previous thread there was a discussion about Covid vaccines, and their danger, etc.

    And the funny bit is that I got involved in a "discussion" on this very issue on Substack only the other day. Someone claimed that Covid vaccines killed many times more people than the virus.

    Now, there is a basic statistical point that it is entirely possible for Covid vaccines to kill more people than Covid, and yet for them still to be a net positive for mortality.

    But I didn't want to go down that rabbit hole.

    Instead, I posed the following question: If Covid vaccines killed many more people than the virus could, then any country that was isolated from the virus due to geography, but which had mass Covid vaccinations must have had much worse excess deaths than one that experienced the virus.

    It is simply not possible for a country which did not get the virus, but did vaccinate everyone to have better outcomes, if the vaccine caused more death than the virus.

    So how come Australia and New Zealand - which both have close to 100% Covid vaccination rates, but which never experienced Covid, due to closure of their borders - had no excess deaths in 2020 or 2021 at all?

    So many errors here where do i start.
    1. The covid vaccine rollout in Australia wasnt completed until late 2021 so the figures for excess deaths for 2020 and most of 2021 are pretty irrelevant. Relatively few people had been vaccinated even first half of 2021.
    2. So we move to 2022 the first year after the vaccine rollout where there was 11.7% excess deaths. Pretty significant no.

    https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Community_Affairs/ExcessMortality47/Report/Chapter_2_-_Provisional_mortality_data_and_contributing_factors_to_excess_mortality

    So ironically using your own argument there is a strong case for covid vaccines being involved in the sudden spike in excess deaths in 2022 the first year after the vaccine rollout.
    Sure, they didn't *finish* Covid vaccines until the end of 2021.

    Nevertheless, they had essentially no Covid deaths at all in 2021, and their entire country got vaccinated that year.

    And they had negative excess deaths.

    So; how come they managed negative excess deaths in 2021, if the Covid vaccine was worse than Covid?

    Unless you're arguing that these terrible negative impacts of the vaccine only took hold in 2022. By which point, conveniently, both countries now had Covid.

    But even then, if you look across the entire period of Covid (2020 to end 2022), there was essentially no change in all factors mortality in AU/NZ.

    There are two possible scenarious:

    (1) The whole Covid thing is a hoax
    (2) The combination of cutting themself off from the world while Covid was rampant and population immunity low, followed by mass Covid vaccines worked

    Personally, Occam's razer suggests the second. But knock yourself out if you want to go with another explanation.
    If you allow me more than 1 post before banning me next time that would be appreciated. Doesnt show you have much confidence in your argument but hey ho

    1. There were positive excess deaths in 2021 by 1.6% so you havent even got the basic facts right there.
    2. You talk about Australia having covid in 2022 as a reason for the excess deaths.
    But firstly by then it was the relatively weak omicron variant circulatimg which wasnt especially deadly hence most countries had opened up.
    And secondly even if the covid circulating in 2022 had been relatively deadly it was the job of vaccines to stop deaths. And excess deaths of 11.7% showed they did a poor job of this.
    So either the vaccines were contributing to the excess deaths in 2022 or the vaccines were useless at stopping covid anyway.

    You argue in a confused way sometimes but maybe you are just a bit rushed.
    *looks round, very puzzled*

    It's not Saturday lunchtime already, is it?
    Easter’s not as bad as Christmas for that, but I’m on a week off and already lost track of what day it is.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,612
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Talking of Truss, I caught up with an old University chum for the first time in nearly 30 years on Sunday. He editor of the Oxford Student (OUSU funded rival of Cherwell) and told me of some of the lickspittle surrounding Truss when we were there (we were in the same year as her). I vaguely remembered some of the stories from the time but didn't associate them with her until he reminded me. For once in his existence it appears Leon might be right about something.

    lol

    It always ends up here

    "So it turns out Leon was right about something"

    Lab Leak, Covid, THING, China, THING, Nordstream, Biden's decline, on and on
    You told us the other day the capital of Kazakhstan is still called Nur-Sultan! It reverted to Astana in 2022.
    It's clear that you think you have a point here

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5177349/#Comment_5177349
    I do indeed!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astana

    Initially founded as Akmoly in 1830, the city was later renamed Akmolinsk, Tselinograd, and Akmola before adopting the name Astana in 1998, which means "capital city" in Kazakh.[15] In 2019, the city briefly adopted the name Nur-Sultan in honor of former president Nursultan Nazarbayev, but it returned to the name Astana in 2022.
    Leon called it Astana in the comment I just posted

    Leon called it Nur-Sultan in this comment on Sunday 8.18pm:

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5176716/#Comment_5176716
    On the other fucking hand, I am actually here in Astana nee Nur Sultan nee Astana, and I can report that tho it is has officially changed its name BACK to Astana, very many people still call it Nur Sultan; after Nur Sultan Nazarbayev, who founded it

    Here is my hand FILLING the golden handshape of Nur Sultan Nazarbayev, which is in the golden globe at the top of the tower that looms over his surreal steppe land Singapore: Nur Sultan Astana




    Tiny fingers bro. Never mind, eh.
    But special golden fingernails
    Is this your scat thing, again?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,380

    ydoethur said:

    Don said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the previous thread there was a discussion about Covid vaccines, and their danger, etc.

    And the funny bit is that I got involved in a "discussion" on this very issue on Substack only the other day. Someone claimed that Covid vaccines killed many times more people than the virus.

    Now, there is a basic statistical point that it is entirely possible for Covid vaccines to kill more people than Covid, and yet for them still to be a net positive for mortality.

    But I didn't want to go down that rabbit hole.

    Instead, I posed the following question: If Covid vaccines killed many more people than the virus could, then any country that was isolated from the virus due to geography, but which had mass Covid vaccinations must have had much worse excess deaths than one that experienced the virus.

    It is simply not possible for a country which did not get the virus, but did vaccinate everyone to have better outcomes, if the vaccine caused more death than the virus.

    So how come Australia and New Zealand - which both have close to 100% Covid vaccination rates, but which never experienced Covid, due to closure of their borders - had no excess deaths in 2020 or 2021 at all?

    So many errors here where do i start.
    1. The covid vaccine rollout in Australia wasnt completed until late 2021 so the figures for excess deaths for 2020 and most of 2021 are pretty irrelevant. Relatively few people had been vaccinated even first half of 2021.
    2. So we move to 2022 the first year after the vaccine rollout where there was 11.7% excess deaths. Pretty significant no.

    https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Community_Affairs/ExcessMortality47/Report/Chapter_2_-_Provisional_mortality_data_and_contributing_factors_to_excess_mortality

    So ironically using your own argument there is a strong case for covid vaccines being involved in the sudden spike in excess deaths in 2022 the first year after the vaccine rollout.
    Sure, they didn't *finish* Covid vaccines until the end of 2021.

    Nevertheless, they had essentially no Covid deaths at all in 2021, and their entire country got vaccinated that year.

    And they had negative excess deaths.

    So; how come they managed negative excess deaths in 2021, if the Covid vaccine was worse than Covid?

    Unless you're arguing that these terrible negative impacts of the vaccine only took hold in 2022. By which point, conveniently, both countries now had Covid.

    But even then, if you look across the entire period of Covid (2020 to end 2022), there was essentially no change in all factors mortality in AU/NZ.

    There are two possible scenarious:

    (1) The whole Covid thing is a hoax
    (2) The combination of cutting themself off from the world while Covid was rampant and population immunity low, followed by mass Covid vaccines worked

    Personally, Occam's razer suggests the second. But knock yourself out if you want to go with another explanation.
    If you allow me more than 1 post before banning me next time that would be appreciated. Doesnt show you have much confidence in your argument but hey ho

    1. There were positive excess deaths in 2021 by 1.6% so you havent even got the basic facts right there.
    2. You talk about Australia having covid in 2022 as a reason for the excess deaths.
    But firstly by then it was the relatively weak omicron variant circulatimg which wasnt especially deadly hence most countries had opened up.
    And secondly even if the covid circulating in 2022 had been relatively deadly it was the job of vaccines to stop deaths. And excess deaths of 11.7% showed they did a poor job of this.
    So either the vaccines were contributing to the excess deaths in 2022 or the vaccines were useless at stopping covid anyway.

    You argue in a confused way sometimes but maybe you are just a bit rushed.
    *looks round, very puzzled*

    It's not Saturday lunchtime already, is it?
    Easter’s not as bad as Christmas for that, but I’m on a week off and already lost track of what day it is.
    Well, for me it's rather a busy time of year, of course. Lots of sessions putting my weekly earnings in the multiple thousands mark.

    But that's why I'm worried because if it's Saturday I've missed two rather lucrative days.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,664

    Fucking hell. Birmingham expect to be back to one bin collection a week from the weekend. Our lot aren’t on strike and we don’t even get that…

    Until very recently, when wheelie bins became compulsory rather than merely widespread, Birmingham binmen would open your side gate, walk around the back of the house, pick the black bags out of the old aluminum bins and swing them over their shoulder, bolting the side gate on the way back to the lorry. So I have a soft spot for them, inefficient though it was.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,589
    Don said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the previous thread there was a discussion about Covid vaccines, and their danger, etc.

    And the funny bit is that I got involved in a "discussion" on this very issue on Substack only the other day. Someone claimed that Covid vaccines killed many times more people than the virus.

    Now, there is a basic statistical point that it is entirely possible for Covid vaccines to kill more people than Covid, and yet for them still to be a net positive for mortality.

    But I didn't want to go down that rabbit hole.

    Instead, I posed the following question: If Covid vaccines killed many more people than the virus could, then any country that was isolated from the virus due to geography, but which had mass Covid vaccinations must have had much worse excess deaths than one that experienced the virus.

    It is simply not possible for a country which did not get the virus, but did vaccinate everyone to have better outcomes, if the vaccine caused more death than the virus.

    So how come Australia and New Zealand - which both have close to 100% Covid vaccination rates, but which never experienced Covid, due to closure of their borders - had no excess deaths in 2020 or 2021 at all?

    So many errors here where do i start.
    1. The covid vaccine rollout in Australia wasnt completed until late 2021 so the figures for excess deaths for 2020 and most of 2021 are pretty irrelevant. Relatively few people had been vaccinated even first half of 2021.
    2. So we move to 2022 the first year after the vaccine rollout where there was 11.7% excess deaths. Pretty significant no.

    https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Community_Affairs/ExcessMortality47/Report/Chapter_2_-_Provisional_mortality_data_and_contributing_factors_to_excess_mortality

    So ironically using your own argument there is a strong case for covid vaccines being involved in the sudden spike in excess deaths in 2022 the first year after the vaccine rollout.
    Sure, they didn't *finish* Covid vaccines until the end of 2021.

    Nevertheless, they had essentially no Covid deaths at all in 2021, and their entire country got vaccinated that year.

    And they had negative excess deaths.

    So; how come they managed negative excess deaths in 2021, if the Covid vaccine was worse than Covid?

    Unless you're arguing that these terrible negative impacts of the vaccine only took hold in 2022. By which point, conveniently, both countries now had Covid.

    But even then, if you look across the entire period of Covid (2020 to end 2022), there was essentially no change in all factors mortality in AU/NZ.

    There are two possible scenarious:

    (1) The whole Covid thing is a hoax
    (2) The combination of cutting themself off from the world while Covid was rampant and population immunity low, followed by mass Covid vaccines worked

    Personally, Occam's razer suggests the second. But knock yourself out if you want to go with another explanation.
    If you allow me more than 1 post before banning me next time that would be appreciated. Doesnt show you have much confidence in your argument but hey ho

    1. There were positive excess deaths in 2021 by 1.6% so you havent even got the basic facts right there.
    2. You talk about Australia having covid in 2022 as a reason for the excess deaths.
    But firstly by then it was the relatively weak omicron variant circulatimg which wasnt especially deadly hence most countries had opened up.
    And secondly even if the covid circulating in 2022 had been relatively deadly it was the job of vaccines to stop deaths. And excess deaths of 11.7% showed they did a poor job of this.
    So either the vaccines were contributing to the excess deaths in 2022 or the vaccines were useless at stopping covid anyway.

    You argue in a confused way sometimes but maybe you are just a bit rushed.
    Omicron was ‘fairly weak’ in populations that had already had a lot of exposure to covid and had been vaccinated. No one in Australia had the initial exposures that most of the res5 of the world had, so there’s a potential explanation there.
    It’s not the lethality of the vaccines.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,747

    rcs1000 said:

    algarkirk said:

    I voted for this government, and while it is deeply imperfect and their communications and messaging are dire I think their aims are sound and their intentions are to do good and govern well in tough times. If there were a GE tomorrow they get my vote.

    Given all that, if my voice counted, I would urge the government to speak just slightly more clearly and plainly without going OTT about how the USA, a people with whom we have profound ties and for whom we have deep affection, is rapidly descending from admirable democracy to authoritarianism, then dictatorship and looks like ending in a truly abominable tyranny.

    In saying so little, there is a growing cognitive dissonance between the government (and European governments generally) and what thoughtful people of all political colours know to be the case. This can't go on.

    Rather than fixating on the US, I think it would be much more sensible for the current government to work on expanding ties with other developed world democracies:

    The EU, Canada, the EFTA countries, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan, Japan, Brazil, etc.

    There is a historic opportunity to expand TPP to make it a genuinely world wide bloc.
    The reality that we are not yet willing to accept or really even consider is that Trumps govt have brought forward Chinese dominance by somewhere between 20-30 years. Even combined the above will struggle to operate independently of both China and the USA. And combined is really hard and fragile (Germany Afd, France Le Pen, UK Farage, SK recent coup, Taiwan possible invasion) so probably won't happen in a sustained manner over a period of decades.

    We have to choose between China and the US. One is in many ways evil but fairly reliable and predictable. The other is currently less evil but increasingly unreliable and unpredictable despite many historic and social ties. Up until Nov 24 this was a straightforward choice, it is no longer clear cut.
    I don't think anything Trump has done is as consequntial as policies around the financial crisis (both leading up to it and in response to it). If you wanted to produce a list of 'guilty men', Alan Greenspan would be ahead of Trump.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,896

    HYUFD said:

    Given Labour's NI for employers and minimum wage rises have already cut the number of vacancies they certainly cannot escape blame for bad economic news. The UK's 10% tariff from Trump is of course no higher than any other nation and significantly lower than China faces

    Maybe its Labour reducing immigration from the Tory record highs that is cutting the number of vacancies.....
    It was Rishi's raising the visa wage requirement and restricting the ability of dependents that has done that, nothing Starmer has done.

    However fewer immigrants in jobs should mean more vacancies
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,144

    HYUFD said:

    Given Labour's NI for employers and minimum wage rises have already cut the number of vacancies they certainly cannot escape blame for bad economic news. The UK's 10% tariff from Trump is of course no higher than any other nation and significantly lower than China faces

    Maybe its Labour reducing immigration from the Tory record highs that is cutting the number of vacancies.....
    I note too in the header that health is going gradually down as a concern, a sign perhaps that some deliverism is actually happening.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,589
    carnforth said:

    Fucking hell. Birmingham expect to be back to one bin collection a week from the weekend. Our lot aren’t on strike and we don’t even get that…

    Until very recently, when wheelie bins became compulsory rather than merely widespread, Birmingham binmen would open your side gate, walk around the back of the house, pick the black bags out of the old aluminum bins and swing them over their shoulder, bolting the side gate on the way back to the lorry. So I have a soft spot for them, inefficient though it was.
    If I was PM, or perhaps ‘world king’, I would insist everyone had the same bin collection regime, and everyone had equal access to GPs. Sod immigration, it’s the little things that matter.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,144
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given Labour's NI for employers and minimum wage rises have already cut the number of vacancies they certainly cannot escape blame for bad economic news. The UK's 10% tariff from Trump is of course no higher than any other nation and significantly lower than China faces

    Maybe its Labour reducing immigration from the Tory record highs that is cutting the number of vacancies.....
    It was Rishi's raising the visa wage requirement and restricting the ability of dependents that has done that, nothing Starmer has done.

    However fewer immigrants in jobs should mean more vacancies
    but fewer immigrants means more jobs for the natives.
  • DonDon Posts: 5

    Don said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the previous thread there was a discussion about Covid vaccines, and their danger, etc.

    And the funny bit is that I got involved in a "discussion" on this very issue on Substack only the other day. Someone claimed that Covid vaccines killed many times more people than the virus.

    Now, there is a basic statistical point that it is entirely possible for Covid vaccines to kill more people than Covid, and yet for them still to be a net positive for mortality.

    But I didn't want to go down that rabbit hole.

    Instead, I posed the following question: If Covid vaccines killed many more people than the virus could, then any country that was isolated from the virus due to geography, but which had mass Covid vaccinations must have had much worse excess deaths than one that experienced the virus.

    It is simply not possible for a country which did not get the virus, but did vaccinate everyone to have better outcomes, if the vaccine caused more death than the virus.

    So how come Australia and New Zealand - which both have close to 100% Covid vaccination rates, but which never experienced Covid, due to closure of their borders - had no excess deaths in 2020 or 2021 at all?

    So many errors here where do i start.
    1. The covid vaccine rollout in Australia wasnt completed until late 2021 so the figures for excess deaths for 2020 and most of 2021 are pretty irrelevant. Relatively few people had been vaccinated even first half of 2021.
    2. So we move to 2022 the first year after the vaccine rollout where there was 11.7% excess deaths. Pretty significant no.

    https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Community_Affairs/ExcessMortality47/Report/Chapter_2_-_Provisional_mortality_data_and_contributing_factors_to_excess_mortality

    So ironically using your own argument there is a strong case for covid vaccines being involved in the sudden spike in excess deaths in 2022 the first year after the vaccine rollout.
    Sure, they didn't *finish* Covid vaccines until the end of 2021.

    Nevertheless, they had essentially no Covid deaths at all in 2021, and their entire country got vaccinated that year.

    And they had negative excess deaths.

    So; how come they managed negative excess deaths in 2021, if the Covid vaccine was worse than Covid?

    Unless you're arguing that these terrible negative impacts of the vaccine only took hold in 2022. By which point, conveniently, both countries now had Covid.

    But even then, if you look across the entire period of Covid (2020 to end 2022), there was essentially no change in all factors mortality in AU/NZ.

    There are two possible scenarious:

    (1) The whole Covid thing is a hoax
    (2) The combination of cutting themself off from the world while Covid was rampant and population immunity low, followed by mass Covid vaccines worked

    Personally, Occam's razer suggests the second. But knock yourself out if you want to go with another explanation.
    If you allow me more than 1 post before banning me next time that would be appreciated. Doesnt show you have much confidence in your argument but hey ho

    1. There were positive excess deaths in 2021 by 1.6% so you havent even got the basic facts right there.
    2. You talk about Australia having covid in 2022 as a reason for the excess deaths.
    But firstly by then it was the relatively weak omicron variant circulatimg which wasnt especially deadly hence most countries had opened up.
    And secondly even if the covid circulating in 2022 had been relatively deadly it was the job of vaccines to stop deaths. And excess deaths of 11.7% showed they did a poor job of this.
    So either the vaccines were contributing to the excess deaths in 2022 or the vaccines were useless at stopping covid anyway.

    You argue in a confused way sometimes but maybe you are just a bit rushed.
    Omicron was ‘fairly weak’ in populations that had already had a lot of exposure to covid and had been vaccinated. No one in Australia had the initial exposures that most of the res5 of the world had, so there’s a potential explanation there.
    It’s not the lethality of the vaccines.
    Well sure but most of Australia had been vaccinated by the time Omicron was circulating.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,144

    carnforth said:

    Fucking hell. Birmingham expect to be back to one bin collection a week from the weekend. Our lot aren’t on strike and we don’t even get that…

    Until very recently, when wheelie bins became compulsory rather than merely widespread, Birmingham binmen would open your side gate, walk around the back of the house, pick the black bags out of the old aluminum bins and swing them over their shoulder, bolting the side gate on the way back to the lorry. So I have a soft spot for them, inefficient though it was.
    If I was PM, or perhaps ‘world king’, I would insist everyone had the same bin collection regime, and everyone had equal access to GPs. Sod immigration, it’s the little things that matter.
    Sounds a bit Communist.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,664
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given Labour's NI for employers and minimum wage rises have already cut the number of vacancies they certainly cannot escape blame for bad economic news. The UK's 10% tariff from Trump is of course no higher than any other nation and significantly lower than China faces

    Maybe its Labour reducing immigration from the Tory record highs that is cutting the number of vacancies.....
    It was Rishi's raising the visa wage requirement and restricting the ability of dependents that has done that, nothing Starmer has done.

    However fewer immigrants in jobs should mean more vacancies
    but fewer immigrants means more jobs for the natives.
    You think the percentage of working age people who are immigrants is falling? I don't have the figures, but it seems unlikely...
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,589
    Don said:

    Don said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the previous thread there was a discussion about Covid vaccines, and their danger, etc.

    And the funny bit is that I got involved in a "discussion" on this very issue on Substack only the other day. Someone claimed that Covid vaccines killed many times more people than the virus.

    Now, there is a basic statistical point that it is entirely possible for Covid vaccines to kill more people than Covid, and yet for them still to be a net positive for mortality.

    But I didn't want to go down that rabbit hole.

    Instead, I posed the following question: If Covid vaccines killed many more people than the virus could, then any country that was isolated from the virus due to geography, but which had mass Covid vaccinations must have had much worse excess deaths than one that experienced the virus.

    It is simply not possible for a country which did not get the virus, but did vaccinate everyone to have better outcomes, if the vaccine caused more death than the virus.

    So how come Australia and New Zealand - which both have close to 100% Covid vaccination rates, but which never experienced Covid, due to closure of their borders - had no excess deaths in 2020 or 2021 at all?

    So many errors here where do i start.
    1. The covid vaccine rollout in Australia wasnt completed until late 2021 so the figures for excess deaths for 2020 and most of 2021 are pretty irrelevant. Relatively few people had been vaccinated even first half of 2021.
    2. So we move to 2022 the first year after the vaccine rollout where there was 11.7% excess deaths. Pretty significant no.

    https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Community_Affairs/ExcessMortality47/Report/Chapter_2_-_Provisional_mortality_data_and_contributing_factors_to_excess_mortality

    So ironically using your own argument there is a strong case for covid vaccines being involved in the sudden spike in excess deaths in 2022 the first year after the vaccine rollout.
    Sure, they didn't *finish* Covid vaccines until the end of 2021.

    Nevertheless, they had essentially no Covid deaths at all in 2021, and their entire country got vaccinated that year.

    And they had negative excess deaths.

    So; how come they managed negative excess deaths in 2021, if the Covid vaccine was worse than Covid?

    Unless you're arguing that these terrible negative impacts of the vaccine only took hold in 2022. By which point, conveniently, both countries now had Covid.

    But even then, if you look across the entire period of Covid (2020 to end 2022), there was essentially no change in all factors mortality in AU/NZ.

    There are two possible scenarious:

    (1) The whole Covid thing is a hoax
    (2) The combination of cutting themself off from the world while Covid was rampant and population immunity low, followed by mass Covid vaccines worked

    Personally, Occam's razer suggests the second. But knock yourself out if you want to go with another explanation.
    If you allow me more than 1 post before banning me next time that would be appreciated. Doesnt show you have much confidence in your argument but hey ho

    1. There were positive excess deaths in 2021 by 1.6% so you havent even got the basic facts right there.
    2. You talk about Australia having covid in 2022 as a reason for the excess deaths.
    But firstly by then it was the relatively weak omicron variant circulatimg which wasnt especially deadly hence most countries had opened up.
    And secondly even if the covid circulating in 2022 had been relatively deadly it was the job of vaccines to stop deaths. And excess deaths of 11.7% showed they did a poor job of this.
    So either the vaccines were contributing to the excess deaths in 2022 or the vaccines were useless at stopping covid anyway.

    You argue in a confused way sometimes but maybe you are just a bit rushed.
    Omicron was ‘fairly weak’ in populations that had already had a lot of exposure to covid and had been vaccinated. No one in Australia had the initial exposures that most of the res5 of the world had, so there’s a potential explanation there.
    It’s not the lethality of the vaccines.
    Well sure but most of Australia had been vaccinated by the time Omicron was circulating.
    But had not had the exposure to wild type covid.
    If you really care I expect you can find data on vaccine harms and deaths in Australia. I’m pretty sure there will be a reporting system there like our yellow card system in the U.K. I suspect you won’t because you have already decided it’s the vaccines that did it.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,589
    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:

    Fucking hell. Birmingham expect to be back to one bin collection a week from the weekend. Our lot aren’t on strike and we don’t even get that…

    Until very recently, when wheelie bins became compulsory rather than merely widespread, Birmingham binmen would open your side gate, walk around the back of the house, pick the black bags out of the old aluminum bins and swing them over their shoulder, bolting the side gate on the way back to the lorry. So I have a soft spot for them, inefficient though it was.
    If I was PM, or perhaps ‘world king’, I would insist everyone had the same bin collection regime, and everyone had equal access to GPs. Sod immigration, it’s the little things that matter.
    Sounds a bit Communist.
    Really? Why should Birmingham residents have their bin emptied once a week when mine is once a fortnight? And why should my dad get far better GP access because he lives in a village than I do in a small town?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,589
    Don said:

    Don said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the previous thread there was a discussion about Covid vaccines, and their danger, etc.

    And the funny bit is that I got involved in a "discussion" on this very issue on Substack only the other day. Someone claimed that Covid vaccines killed many times more people than the virus.

    Now, there is a basic statistical point that it is entirely possible for Covid vaccines to kill more people than Covid, and yet for them still to be a net positive for mortality.

    But I didn't want to go down that rabbit hole.

    Instead, I posed the following question: If Covid vaccines killed many more people than the virus could, then any country that was isolated from the virus due to geography, but which had mass Covid vaccinations must have had much worse excess deaths than one that experienced the virus.

    It is simply not possible for a country which did not get the virus, but did vaccinate everyone to have better outcomes, if the vaccine caused more death than the virus.

    So how come Australia and New Zealand - which both have close to 100% Covid vaccination rates, but which never experienced Covid, due to closure of their borders - had no excess deaths in 2020 or 2021 at all?

    So many errors here where do i start.
    1. The covid vaccine rollout in Australia wasnt completed until late 2021 so the figures for excess deaths for 2020 and most of 2021 are pretty irrelevant. Relatively few people had been vaccinated even first half of 2021.
    2. So we move to 2022 the first year after the vaccine rollout where there was 11.7% excess deaths. Pretty significant no.

    https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Community_Affairs/ExcessMortality47/Report/Chapter_2_-_Provisional_mortality_data_and_contributing_factors_to_excess_mortality

    So ironically using your own argument there is a strong case for covid vaccines being involved in the sudden spike in excess deaths in 2022 the first year after the vaccine rollout.
    Sure, they didn't *finish* Covid vaccines until the end of 2021.

    Nevertheless, they had essentially no Covid deaths at all in 2021, and their entire country got vaccinated that year.

    And they had negative excess deaths.

    So; how come they managed negative excess deaths in 2021, if the Covid vaccine was worse than Covid?

    Unless you're arguing that these terrible negative impacts of the vaccine only took hold in 2022. By which point, conveniently, both countries now had Covid.

    But even then, if you look across the entire period of Covid (2020 to end 2022), there was essentially no change in all factors mortality in AU/NZ.

    There are two possible scenarious:

    (1) The whole Covid thing is a hoax
    (2) The combination of cutting themself off from the world while Covid was rampant and population immunity low, followed by mass Covid vaccines worked

    Personally, Occam's razer suggests the second. But knock yourself out if you want to go with another explanation.
    If you allow me more than 1 post before banning me next time that would be appreciated. Doesnt show you have much confidence in your argument but hey ho

    1. There were positive excess deaths in 2021 by 1.6% so you havent even got the basic facts right there.
    2. You talk about Australia having covid in 2022 as a reason for the excess deaths.
    But firstly by then it was the relatively weak omicron variant circulatimg which wasnt especially deadly hence most countries had opened up.
    And secondly even if the covid circulating in 2022 had been relatively deadly it was the job of vaccines to stop deaths. And excess deaths of 11.7% showed they did a poor job of this.
    So either the vaccines were contributing to the excess deaths in 2022 or the vaccines were useless at stopping covid anyway.

    You argue in a confused way sometimes but maybe you are just a bit rushed.
    Omicron was ‘fairly weak’ in populations that had already had a lot of exposure to covid and had been vaccinated. No one in Australia had the initial exposures that most of the res5 of the world had, so there’s a potential explanation there.
    It’s not the lethality of the vaccines.
    Well sure but most of Australia had been vaccinated by the time Omicron was circulating.
    Also what was the take up? Doubt it was more than 90%. That’s a lot of unvaxxed folk out there.
  • DonDon Posts: 5

    Don said:

    Don said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the previous thread there was a discussion about Covid vaccines, and their danger, etc.

    And the funny bit is that I got involved in a "discussion" on this very issue on Substack only the other day. Someone claimed that Covid vaccines killed many times more people than the virus.

    Now, there is a basic statistical point that it is entirely possible for Covid vaccines to kill more people than Covid, and yet for them still to be a net positive for mortality.

    But I didn't want to go down that rabbit hole.

    Instead, I posed the following question: If Covid vaccines killed many more people than the virus could, then any country that was isolated from the virus due to geography, but which had mass Covid vaccinations must have had much worse excess deaths than one that experienced the virus.

    It is simply not possible for a country which did not get the virus, but did vaccinate everyone to have better outcomes, if the vaccine caused more death than the virus.

    So how come Australia and New Zealand - which both have close to 100% Covid vaccination rates, but which never experienced Covid, due to closure of their borders - had no excess deaths in 2020 or 2021 at all?

    So many errors here where do i start.
    1. The covid vaccine rollout in Australia wasnt completed until late 2021 so the figures for excess deaths for 2020 and most of 2021 are pretty irrelevant. Relatively few people had been vaccinated even first half of 2021.
    2. So we move to 2022 the first year after the vaccine rollout where there was 11.7% excess deaths. Pretty significant no.

    https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Community_Affairs/ExcessMortality47/Report/Chapter_2_-_Provisional_mortality_data_and_contributing_factors_to_excess_mortality

    So ironically using your own argument there is a strong case for covid vaccines being involved in the sudden spike in excess deaths in 2022 the first year after the vaccine rollout.
    Sure, they didn't *finish* Covid vaccines until the end of 2021.

    Nevertheless, they had essentially no Covid deaths at all in 2021, and their entire country got vaccinated that year.

    And they had negative excess deaths.

    So; how come they managed negative excess deaths in 2021, if the Covid vaccine was worse than Covid?

    Unless you're arguing that these terrible negative impacts of the vaccine only took hold in 2022. By which point, conveniently, both countries now had Covid.

    But even then, if you look across the entire period of Covid (2020 to end 2022), there was essentially no change in all factors mortality in AU/NZ.

    There are two possible scenarious:

    (1) The whole Covid thing is a hoax
    (2) The combination of cutting themself off from the world while Covid was rampant and population immunity low, followed by mass Covid vaccines worked

    Personally, Occam's razer suggests the second. But knock yourself out if you want to go with another explanation.
    If you allow me more than 1 post before banning me next time that would be appreciated. Doesnt show you have much confidence in your argument but hey ho

    1. There were positive excess deaths in 2021 by 1.6% so you havent even got the basic facts right there.
    2. You talk about Australia having covid in 2022 as a reason for the excess deaths.
    But firstly by then it was the relatively weak omicron variant circulatimg which wasnt especially deadly hence most countries had opened up.
    And secondly even if the covid circulating in 2022 had been relatively deadly it was the job of vaccines to stop deaths. And excess deaths of 11.7% showed they did a poor job of this.
    So either the vaccines were contributing to the excess deaths in 2022 or the vaccines were useless at stopping covid anyway.

    You argue in a confused way sometimes but maybe you are just a bit rushed.
    Omicron was ‘fairly weak’ in populations that had already had a lot of exposure to covid and had been vaccinated. No one in Australia had the initial exposures that most of the res5 of the world had, so there’s a potential explanation there.
    It’s not the lethality of the vaccines.
    Well sure but most of Australia had been vaccinated by the time Omicron was circulating.
    But had not had the exposure to wild type covid.
    If you really care I expect you can find data on vaccine harms and deaths in Australia. I’m pretty sure there will be a reporting system there like our yellow card system in the U.K. I suspect you won’t because you have already decided it’s the vaccines that did it.
    I havent decided anything. However by contrast you seem to have decided its definitely not the vaccines. I know who has a closed mind here.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,011
    Roger said:

    Fishing said:

    Roger said:

    Watching Ch4 get excited that JD Vance might give the UK a trade deal 'Because President Trump feels a strong connection with the UK and the Queen' is making me feel nauseous

    Can Starmer resist crawling on all fours and tell them to go f*** themselves?

    Why is it bad that the Monarchy is advancing this country's interests by wielding its soft power? That is what it is there for. The former republican Trotskyite/Corbyn/God knows what Starmer should take full advantage.

    The late Queen was about the only person in the democratic world who could keep Trump in his place. She served this country for seventy years when she was alive, and is still apparently doing wonders from beyond the grave. Even Joe "God Save the Queen, Man" Biden, no friend to this country, said it was a privilege to have met her.

    We were truly lucky to have had her.
    It's nothing to do with feelings towards the Royal Family. The UK is being asked to sup with the Devil and it seems to be going along with it. To most in this country and Europe the Trump administration is venal if not corrupt and for the UK to prostitute the Royal family to try to gain favours is quite repellent. This warning is to Starmer. You're either with them or against them and if the government want to retain their credibility with the electors and Europe there is only one choice
    Roger said:

    Fishing said:

    Roger said:

    Watching Ch4 get excited that JD Vance might give the UK a trade deal 'Because President Trump feels a strong connection with the UK and the Queen' is making me feel nauseous

    Can Starmer resist crawling on all fours and tell them to go f*** themselves?

    Why is it bad that the Monarchy is advancing this country's interests by wielding its soft power? That is what it is there for. The former republican Trotskyite/Corbyn/God knows what Starmer should take full advantage.

    The late Queen was about the only person in the democratic world who could keep Trump in his place. She served this country for seventy years when she was alive, and is still apparently doing wonders from beyond the grave. Even Joe "God Save the Queen, Man" Biden, no friend to this country, said it was a privilege to have met her.

    We were truly lucky to have had her.
    It's nothing to do with feelings towards the Royal Family. The UK is being asked to sup with the Devil and it seems to be going along with it. To most in this country and Europe the Trump administration is venal if not corrupt and for the UK to prostitute the Royal family to try to gain favours is quite repellent. This warning is to Starmer. You're either with them or against them and if the government want to retain their credibility with the electors and Europe there is only one choice
    Good evening

    I do not agree you either with them or against them as this is increasing division

    I am no supporter of Starmer, and think his fawning Palace invite to Trump on their meeting in the White House was ill-judged, but the US is a very important trading partner and as others have said he won't be there forever and we need good relations with the US

    So far Starmer has steered a difficult course quite well, and certainly making an enemy of Trump is not in the UKs best interests at this time
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,589
    Don said:

    Don said:

    Don said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the previous thread there was a discussion about Covid vaccines, and their danger, etc.

    And the funny bit is that I got involved in a "discussion" on this very issue on Substack only the other day. Someone claimed that Covid vaccines killed many times more people than the virus.

    Now, there is a basic statistical point that it is entirely possible for Covid vaccines to kill more people than Covid, and yet for them still to be a net positive for mortality.

    But I didn't want to go down that rabbit hole.

    Instead, I posed the following question: If Covid vaccines killed many more people than the virus could, then any country that was isolated from the virus due to geography, but which had mass Covid vaccinations must have had much worse excess deaths than one that experienced the virus.

    It is simply not possible for a country which did not get the virus, but did vaccinate everyone to have better outcomes, if the vaccine caused more death than the virus.

    So how come Australia and New Zealand - which both have close to 100% Covid vaccination rates, but which never experienced Covid, due to closure of their borders - had no excess deaths in 2020 or 2021 at all?

    So many errors here where do i start.
    1. The covid vaccine rollout in Australia wasnt completed until late 2021 so the figures for excess deaths for 2020 and most of 2021 are pretty irrelevant. Relatively few people had been vaccinated even first half of 2021.
    2. So we move to 2022 the first year after the vaccine rollout where there was 11.7% excess deaths. Pretty significant no.

    https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Community_Affairs/ExcessMortality47/Report/Chapter_2_-_Provisional_mortality_data_and_contributing_factors_to_excess_mortality

    So ironically using your own argument there is a strong case for covid vaccines being involved in the sudden spike in excess deaths in 2022 the first year after the vaccine rollout.
    Sure, they didn't *finish* Covid vaccines until the end of 2021.

    Nevertheless, they had essentially no Covid deaths at all in 2021, and their entire country got vaccinated that year.

    And they had negative excess deaths.

    So; how come they managed negative excess deaths in 2021, if the Covid vaccine was worse than Covid?

    Unless you're arguing that these terrible negative impacts of the vaccine only took hold in 2022. By which point, conveniently, both countries now had Covid.

    But even then, if you look across the entire period of Covid (2020 to end 2022), there was essentially no change in all factors mortality in AU/NZ.

    There are two possible scenarious:

    (1) The whole Covid thing is a hoax
    (2) The combination of cutting themself off from the world while Covid was rampant and population immunity low, followed by mass Covid vaccines worked

    Personally, Occam's razer suggests the second. But knock yourself out if you want to go with another explanation.
    If you allow me more than 1 post before banning me next time that would be appreciated. Doesnt show you have much confidence in your argument but hey ho

    1. There were positive excess deaths in 2021 by 1.6% so you havent even got the basic facts right there.
    2. You talk about Australia having covid in 2022 as a reason for the excess deaths.
    But firstly by then it was the relatively weak omicron variant circulatimg which wasnt especially deadly hence most countries had opened up.
    And secondly even if the covid circulating in 2022 had been relatively deadly it was the job of vaccines to stop deaths. And excess deaths of 11.7% showed they did a poor job of this.
    So either the vaccines were contributing to the excess deaths in 2022 or the vaccines were useless at stopping covid anyway.

    You argue in a confused way sometimes but maybe you are just a bit rushed.
    Omicron was ‘fairly weak’ in populations that had already had a lot of exposure to covid and had been vaccinated. No one in Australia had the initial exposures that most of the res5 of the world had, so there’s a potential explanation there.
    It’s not the lethality of the vaccines.
    Well sure but most of Australia had been vaccinated by the time Omicron was circulating.
    But had not had the exposure to wild type covid.
    If you really care I expect you can find data on vaccine harms and deaths in Australia. I’m pretty sure there will be a reporting system there like our yellow card system in the U.K. I suspect you won’t because you have already decided it’s the vaccines that did it.
    I havent decided anything. However by contrast you seem to have decided its definitely not the vaccines. I know who has a closed mind here.
    I’ve looked at the evidence around the vaccinations. It’s pretty unambiguous. People did undoubtedly die after being vaccinated. No question about that. But your assertion that Australia saw a spike in deaths because of the vaccines is preposterous.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,144

    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:

    Fucking hell. Birmingham expect to be back to one bin collection a week from the weekend. Our lot aren’t on strike and we don’t even get that…

    Until very recently, when wheelie bins became compulsory rather than merely widespread, Birmingham binmen would open your side gate, walk around the back of the house, pick the black bags out of the old aluminum bins and swing them over their shoulder, bolting the side gate on the way back to the lorry. So I have a soft spot for them, inefficient though it was.
    If I was PM, or perhaps ‘world king’, I would insist everyone had the same bin collection regime, and everyone had equal access to GPs. Sod immigration, it’s the little things that matter.
    Sounds a bit Communist.
    Really? Why should Birmingham residents have their bin emptied once a week when mine is once a fortnight? And why should my dad get far better GP access because he lives in a village than I do in a small town?
    Because we have local government, and local commissioning of heathcare, and the whole point of local decision making is that different places make different decisions depending on different circumstances.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,553

    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:

    Fucking hell. Birmingham expect to be back to one bin collection a week from the weekend. Our lot aren’t on strike and we don’t even get that…

    Until very recently, when wheelie bins became compulsory rather than merely widespread, Birmingham binmen would open your side gate, walk around the back of the house, pick the black bags out of the old aluminum bins and swing them over their shoulder, bolting the side gate on the way back to the lorry. So I have a soft spot for them, inefficient though it was.
    If I was PM, or perhaps ‘world king’, I would insist everyone had the same bin collection regime, and everyone had equal access to GPs. Sod immigration, it’s the little things that matter.
    Sounds a bit Communist.
    Really? Why should Birmingham residents have their bin emptied once a week when mine is once a fortnight? And why should my dad get far better GP access because he lives in a village than I do in a small town?
    We have once a week bins here in Redbridge too!
  • DonDon Posts: 5
    Look regarding the vaccines there are the extremists who say it was a global depopulation plan (unlikely given most of us are still here)
    Or more likely there were some issues with the vaccines that did lead to excess deaths but for obvious reason govts dont want to talk about this.
    Or there were no issues at all with the vaccines(which is almost certainly false as there have been confirmed harms from at least the astra zeneca vaccine.)
  • DonDon Posts: 5

    Don said:

    Don said:

    Don said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the previous thread there was a discussion about Covid vaccines, and their danger, etc.

    And the funny bit is that I got involved in a "discussion" on this very issue on Substack only the other day. Someone claimed that Covid vaccines killed many times more people than the virus.

    Now, there is a basic statistical point that it is entirely possible for Covid vaccines to kill more people than Covid, and yet for them still to be a net positive for mortality.

    But I didn't want to go down that rabbit hole.

    Instead, I posed the following question: If Covid vaccines killed many more people than the virus could, then any country that was isolated from the virus due to geography, but which had mass Covid vaccinations must have had much worse excess deaths than one that experienced the virus.

    It is simply not possible for a country which did not get the virus, but did vaccinate everyone to have better outcomes, if the vaccine caused more death than the virus.

    So how come Australia and New Zealand - which both have close to 100% Covid vaccination rates, but which never experienced Covid, due to closure of their borders - had no excess deaths in 2020 or 2021 at all?

    So many errors here where do i start.
    1. The covid vaccine rollout in Australia wasnt completed until late 2021 so the figures for excess deaths for 2020 and most of 2021 are pretty irrelevant. Relatively few people had been vaccinated even first half of 2021.
    2. So we move to 2022 the first year after the vaccine rollout where there was 11.7% excess deaths. Pretty significant no.

    https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Community_Affairs/ExcessMortality47/Report/Chapter_2_-_Provisional_mortality_data_and_contributing_factors_to_excess_mortality

    So ironically using your own argument there is a strong case for covid vaccines being involved in the sudden spike in excess deaths in 2022 the first year after the vaccine rollout.
    Sure, they didn't *finish* Covid vaccines until the end of 2021.

    Nevertheless, they had essentially no Covid deaths at all in 2021, and their entire country got vaccinated that year.

    And they had negative excess deaths.

    So; how come they managed negative excess deaths in 2021, if the Covid vaccine was worse than Covid?

    Unless you're arguing that these terrible negative impacts of the vaccine only took hold in 2022. By which point, conveniently, both countries now had Covid.

    But even then, if you look across the entire period of Covid (2020 to end 2022), there was essentially no change in all factors mortality in AU/NZ.

    There are two possible scenarious:

    (1) The whole Covid thing is a hoax
    (2) The combination of cutting themself off from the world while Covid was rampant and population immunity low, followed by mass Covid vaccines worked

    Personally, Occam's razer suggests the second. But knock yourself out if you want to go with another explanation.
    If you allow me more than 1 post before banning me next time that would be appreciated. Doesnt show you have much confidence in your argument but hey ho

    1. There were positive excess deaths in 2021 by 1.6% so you havent even got the basic facts right there.
    2. You talk about Australia having covid in 2022 as a reason for the excess deaths.
    But firstly by then it was the relatively weak omicron variant circulatimg which wasnt especially deadly hence most countries had opened up.
    And secondly even if the covid circulating in 2022 had been relatively deadly it was the job of vaccines to stop deaths. And excess deaths of 11.7% showed they did a poor job of this.
    So either the vaccines were contributing to the excess deaths in 2022 or the vaccines were useless at stopping covid anyway.

    You argue in a confused way sometimes but maybe you are just a bit rushed.
    Omicron was ‘fairly weak’ in populations that had already had a lot of exposure to covid and had been vaccinated. No one in Australia had the initial exposures that most of the res5 of the world had, so there’s a potential explanation there.
    It’s not the lethality of the vaccines.
    Well sure but most of Australia had been vaccinated by the time Omicron was circulating.
    But had not had the exposure to wild type covid.
    If you really care I expect you can find data on vaccine harms and deaths in Australia. I’m pretty sure there will be a reporting system there like our yellow card system in the U.K. I suspect you won’t because you have already decided it’s the vaccines that did it.
    I havent decided anything. However by contrast you seem to have decided its definitely not the vaccines. I know who has a closed mind here.
    I’ve looked at the evidence around the vaccinations. It’s pretty unambiguous. People did undoubtedly die after being vaccinated. No question about that. But your assertion that Australia saw a spike in deaths because of the vaccines is preposterous.
    There was a big spike in excess deaths in 2022 in many countries around the world.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,747
    Don said:

    Look regarding the vaccines there are the extremists who say it was a global depopulation plan (unlikely given most of us are still here)
    Or more likely there were some issues with the vaccines that did lead to excess deaths but for obvious reason govts dont want to talk about this.
    Or there were no issues at all with the vaccines(which is almost certainly false as there have been confirmed harms from at least the astra zeneca vaccine.)

    What would the expected rate of adverse events be if you injected saline into the same proportion of the population?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,286
    Don said:

    Look regarding the vaccines there are the extremists who say it was a global depopulation plan (unlikely given most of us are still here)
    Or more likely there were some issues with the vaccines that did lead to excess deaths but for obvious reason govts dont want to talk about this.
    Or there were no issues at all with the vaccines(which is almost certainly false as there have been confirmed harms from at least the astra zeneca vaccine.)

    Or there were a very small number of issues with the vaccines but that was far outweighed by the beneficial effects.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,144
    Don said:

    Look regarding the vaccines there are the extremists who say it was a global depopulation plan (unlikely given most of us are still here)
    Or more likely there were some issues with the vaccines that did lead to excess deaths but for obvious reason govts dont want to talk about this.
    Or there were no issues at all with the vaccines(which is almost certainly false as there have been confirmed harms from at least the astra zeneca vaccine.)

    or. like any other mediical treatment there were a few with vaccine side effects and many more who benefited.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,286
    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:

    Fucking hell. Birmingham expect to be back to one bin collection a week from the weekend. Our lot aren’t on strike and we don’t even get that…

    Until very recently, when wheelie bins became compulsory rather than merely widespread, Birmingham binmen would open your side gate, walk around the back of the house, pick the black bags out of the old aluminum bins and swing them over their shoulder, bolting the side gate on the way back to the lorry. So I have a soft spot for them, inefficient though it was.
    If I was PM, or perhaps ‘world king’, I would insist everyone had the same bin collection regime, and everyone had equal access to GPs. Sod immigration, it’s the little things that matter.
    Sounds a bit Communist.
    I always had Turbo down as a closet Soviet.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,589
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:

    Fucking hell. Birmingham expect to be back to one bin collection a week from the weekend. Our lot aren’t on strike and we don’t even get that…

    Until very recently, when wheelie bins became compulsory rather than merely widespread, Birmingham binmen would open your side gate, walk around the back of the house, pick the black bags out of the old aluminum bins and swing them over their shoulder, bolting the side gate on the way back to the lorry. So I have a soft spot for them, inefficient though it was.
    If I was PM, or perhaps ‘world king’, I would insist everyone had the same bin collection regime, and everyone had equal access to GPs. Sod immigration, it’s the little things that matter.
    Sounds a bit Communist.
    Really? Why should Birmingham residents have their bin emptied once a week when mine is once a fortnight? And why should my dad get far better GP access because he lives in a village than I do in a small town?
    Because we have local government, and local commissioning of heathcare, and the whole point of local decision making is that different places make different decisions depending on different circumstances.
    I’d support that more if local government was entirely funded locally, but it’s not. Too much influence from government.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,011

    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:

    Fucking hell. Birmingham expect to be back to one bin collection a week from the weekend. Our lot aren’t on strike and we don’t even get that…

    Until very recently, when wheelie bins became compulsory rather than merely widespread, Birmingham binmen would open your side gate, walk around the back of the house, pick the black bags out of the old aluminum bins and swing them over their shoulder, bolting the side gate on the way back to the lorry. So I have a soft spot for them, inefficient though it was.
    If I was PM, or perhaps ‘world king’, I would insist everyone had the same bin collection regime, and everyone had equal access to GPs. Sod immigration, it’s the little things that matter.
    Sounds a bit Communist.
    Really? Why should Birmingham residents have their bin emptied once a week when mine is once a fortnight? And why should my dad get far better GP access because he lives in a village than I do in a small town?
    We have once a week bins here in Redbridge too!
    Your lucky - our main bin is once a month but they do food, plastic and cardboard weekly
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,589
    Don said:

    Don said:

    Don said:

    Don said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the previous thread there was a discussion about Covid vaccines, and their danger, etc.

    And the funny bit is that I got involved in a "discussion" on this very issue on Substack only the other day. Someone claimed that Covid vaccines killed many times more people than the virus.

    Now, there is a basic statistical point that it is entirely possible for Covid vaccines to kill more people than Covid, and yet for them still to be a net positive for mortality.

    But I didn't want to go down that rabbit hole.

    Instead, I posed the following question: If Covid vaccines killed many more people than the virus could, then any country that was isolated from the virus due to geography, but which had mass Covid vaccinations must have had much worse excess deaths than one that experienced the virus.

    It is simply not possible for a country which did not get the virus, but did vaccinate everyone to have better outcomes, if the vaccine caused more death than the virus.

    So how come Australia and New Zealand - which both have close to 100% Covid vaccination rates, but which never experienced Covid, due to closure of their borders - had no excess deaths in 2020 or 2021 at all?

    So many errors here where do i start.
    1. The covid vaccine rollout in Australia wasnt completed until late 2021 so the figures for excess deaths for 2020 and most of 2021 are pretty irrelevant. Relatively few people had been vaccinated even first half of 2021.
    2. So we move to 2022 the first year after the vaccine rollout where there was 11.7% excess deaths. Pretty significant no.

    https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Community_Affairs/ExcessMortality47/Report/Chapter_2_-_Provisional_mortality_data_and_contributing_factors_to_excess_mortality

    So ironically using your own argument there is a strong case for covid vaccines being involved in the sudden spike in excess deaths in 2022 the first year after the vaccine rollout.
    Sure, they didn't *finish* Covid vaccines until the end of 2021.

    Nevertheless, they had essentially no Covid deaths at all in 2021, and their entire country got vaccinated that year.

    And they had negative excess deaths.

    So; how come they managed negative excess deaths in 2021, if the Covid vaccine was worse than Covid?

    Unless you're arguing that these terrible negative impacts of the vaccine only took hold in 2022. By which point, conveniently, both countries now had Covid.

    But even then, if you look across the entire period of Covid (2020 to end 2022), there was essentially no change in all factors mortality in AU/NZ.

    There are two possible scenarious:

    (1) The whole Covid thing is a hoax
    (2) The combination of cutting themself off from the world while Covid was rampant and population immunity low, followed by mass Covid vaccines worked

    Personally, Occam's razer suggests the second. But knock yourself out if you want to go with another explanation.
    If you allow me more than 1 post before banning me next time that would be appreciated. Doesnt show you have much confidence in your argument but hey ho

    1. There were positive excess deaths in 2021 by 1.6% so you havent even got the basic facts right there.
    2. You talk about Australia having covid in 2022 as a reason for the excess deaths.
    But firstly by then it was the relatively weak omicron variant circulatimg which wasnt especially deadly hence most countries had opened up.
    And secondly even if the covid circulating in 2022 had been relatively deadly it was the job of vaccines to stop deaths. And excess deaths of 11.7% showed they did a poor job of this.
    So either the vaccines were contributing to the excess deaths in 2022 or the vaccines were useless at stopping covid anyway.

    You argue in a confused way sometimes but maybe you are just a bit rushed.
    Omicron was ‘fairly weak’ in populations that had already had a lot of exposure to covid and had been vaccinated. No one in Australia had the initial exposures that most of the res5 of the world had, so there’s a potential explanation there.
    It’s not the lethality of the vaccines.
    Well sure but most of Australia had been vaccinated by the time Omicron was circulating.
    But had not had the exposure to wild type covid.
    If you really care I expect you can find data on vaccine harms and deaths in Australia. I’m pretty sure there will be a reporting system there like our yellow card system in the U.K. I suspect you won’t because you have already decided it’s the vaccines that did it.
    I havent decided anything. However by contrast you seem to have decided its definitely not the vaccines. I know who has a closed mind here.
    I’ve looked at the evidence around the vaccinations. It’s pretty unambiguous. People did undoubtedly die after being vaccinated. No question about that. But your assertion that Australia saw a spike in deaths because of the vaccines is preposterous.
    There was a big spike in excess deaths in 2022 in many countries around the world.
    Most countries completed vaccination programs in 2021. If it was the vaccines wot dun it, why not a spike then? More likely is the reopening of society in the face of covid still being a threat.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,589

    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:

    Fucking hell. Birmingham expect to be back to one bin collection a week from the weekend. Our lot aren’t on strike and we don’t even get that…

    Until very recently, when wheelie bins became compulsory rather than merely widespread, Birmingham binmen would open your side gate, walk around the back of the house, pick the black bags out of the old aluminum bins and swing them over their shoulder, bolting the side gate on the way back to the lorry. So I have a soft spot for them, inefficient though it was.
    If I was PM, or perhaps ‘world king’, I would insist everyone had the same bin collection regime, and everyone had equal access to GPs. Sod immigration, it’s the little things that matter.
    Sounds a bit Communist.
    I always had Turbo down as a closet Soviet.
    Well I do work at a Uni. Not many Tories on the staff…
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,589

    Don said:

    Look regarding the vaccines there are the extremists who say it was a global depopulation plan (unlikely given most of us are still here)
    Or more likely there were some issues with the vaccines that did lead to excess deaths but for obvious reason govts dont want to talk about this.
    Or there were no issues at all with the vaccines(which is almost certainly false as there have been confirmed harms from at least the astra zeneca vaccine.)

    What would the expected rate of adverse events be if you injected saline into the same proportion of the population?
    And as important how many would report events? After all the idea is have the shot and then something happens in the following weeks, and the two become linked,even if they should not be. That’s how Wakefield got started. Parents having kids ‘becoming’ autistic shortly after MMR vaccination when in reality the two events were not linked, except by timing.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,501
    Forget the immorality of this, and it is immoral. The idea that we can’t condemn a Russian war crime because it will make the Russians mad at the negotiating table is solid evidence that we are being played by the Russians at the negotiating table.
    https://x.com/JonahDispatch/status/1912198951396356509

    It’s also the fact that Trump has zero empathy.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,380
    Don said:

    Don said:

    Don said:

    Don said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the previous thread there was a discussion about Covid vaccines, and their danger, etc.

    And the funny bit is that I got involved in a "discussion" on this very issue on Substack only the other day. Someone claimed that Covid vaccines killed many times more people than the virus.

    Now, there is a basic statistical point that it is entirely possible for Covid vaccines to kill more people than Covid, and yet for them still to be a net positive for mortality.

    But I didn't want to go down that rabbit hole.

    Instead, I posed the following question: If Covid vaccines killed many more people than the virus could, then any country that was isolated from the virus due to geography, but which had mass Covid vaccinations must have had much worse excess deaths than one that experienced the virus.

    It is simply not possible for a country which did not get the virus, but did vaccinate everyone to have better outcomes, if the vaccine caused more death than the virus.

    So how come Australia and New Zealand - which both have close to 100% Covid vaccination rates, but which never experienced Covid, due to closure of their borders - had no excess deaths in 2020 or 2021 at all?

    So many errors here where do i start.
    1. The covid vaccine rollout in Australia wasnt completed until late 2021 so the figures for excess deaths for 2020 and most of 2021 are pretty irrelevant. Relatively few people had been vaccinated even first half of 2021.
    2. So we move to 2022 the first year after the vaccine rollout where there was 11.7% excess deaths. Pretty significant no.

    https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Community_Affairs/ExcessMortality47/Report/Chapter_2_-_Provisional_mortality_data_and_contributing_factors_to_excess_mortality

    So ironically using your own argument there is a strong case for covid vaccines being involved in the sudden spike in excess deaths in 2022 the first year after the vaccine rollout.
    Sure, they didn't *finish* Covid vaccines until the end of 2021.

    Nevertheless, they had essentially no Covid deaths at all in 2021, and their entire country got vaccinated that year.

    And they had negative excess deaths.

    So; how come they managed negative excess deaths in 2021, if the Covid vaccine was worse than Covid?

    Unless you're arguing that these terrible negative impacts of the vaccine only took hold in 2022. By which point, conveniently, both countries now had Covid.

    But even then, if you look across the entire period of Covid (2020 to end 2022), there was essentially no change in all factors mortality in AU/NZ.

    There are two possible scenarious:

    (1) The whole Covid thing is a hoax
    (2) The combination of cutting themself off from the world while Covid was rampant and population immunity low, followed by mass Covid vaccines worked

    Personally, Occam's razer suggests the second. But knock yourself out if you want to go with another explanation.
    If you allow me more than 1 post before banning me next time that would be appreciated. Doesnt show you have much confidence in your argument but hey ho

    1. There were positive excess deaths in 2021 by 1.6% so you havent even got the basic facts right there.
    2. You talk about Australia having covid in 2022 as a reason for the excess deaths.
    But firstly by then it was the relatively weak omicron variant circulatimg which wasnt especially deadly hence most countries had opened up.
    And secondly even if the covid circulating in 2022 had been relatively deadly it was the job of vaccines to stop deaths. And excess deaths of 11.7% showed they did a poor job of this.
    So either the vaccines were contributing to the excess deaths in 2022 or the vaccines were useless at stopping covid anyway.

    You argue in a confused way sometimes but maybe you are just a bit rushed.
    Omicron was ‘fairly weak’ in populations that had already had a lot of exposure to covid and had been vaccinated. No one in Australia had the initial exposures that most of the res5 of the world had, so there’s a potential explanation there.
    It’s not the lethality of the vaccines.
    Well sure but most of Australia had been vaccinated by the time Omicron was circulating.
    But had not had the exposure to wild type covid.
    If you really care I expect you can find data on vaccine harms and deaths in Australia. I’m pretty sure there will be a reporting system there like our yellow card system in the U.K. I suspect you won’t because you have already decided it’s the vaccines that did it.
    I havent decided anything. However by contrast you seem to have decided its definitely not the vaccines. I know who has a closed mind here.
    I’ve looked at the evidence around the vaccinations. It’s pretty unambiguous. People did undoubtedly die after being vaccinated. No question about that. But your assertion that Australia saw a spike in deaths because of the vaccines is preposterous.
    There was a big spike in excess deaths in 2022 in many countries around the world.
    So he got to five posts this time.

    But now, quiet goes the Don.

    (Anyone who spots the awesomeness of that pun clearly spends too much time reading Russian literature and must therefore be a Commie spy.)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,380

    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:

    Fucking hell. Birmingham expect to be back to one bin collection a week from the weekend. Our lot aren’t on strike and we don’t even get that…

    Until very recently, when wheelie bins became compulsory rather than merely widespread, Birmingham binmen would open your side gate, walk around the back of the house, pick the black bags out of the old aluminum bins and swing them over their shoulder, bolting the side gate on the way back to the lorry. So I have a soft spot for them, inefficient though it was.
    If I was PM, or perhaps ‘world king’, I would insist everyone had the same bin collection regime, and everyone had equal access to GPs. Sod immigration, it’s the little things that matter.
    Sounds a bit Communist.
    I always had Turbo down as a closet Soviet.
    Well I do work at a Uni. Not many Tories on the staff…
    Not that many Tories anywhere, these days.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:

    Fucking hell. Birmingham expect to be back to one bin collection a week from the weekend. Our lot aren’t on strike and we don’t even get that…

    Until very recently, when wheelie bins became compulsory rather than merely widespread, Birmingham binmen would open your side gate, walk around the back of the house, pick the black bags out of the old aluminum bins and swing them over their shoulder, bolting the side gate on the way back to the lorry. So I have a soft spot for them, inefficient though it was.
    If I was PM, or perhaps ‘world king’, I would insist everyone had the same bin collection regime, and everyone had equal access to GPs. Sod immigration, it’s the little things that matter.
    Sounds a bit Communist.
    Really? Why should Birmingham residents have their bin emptied once a week when mine is once a fortnight? And why should my dad get far better GP access because he lives in a village than I do in a small town?
    Because we have local government, and local commissioning of heathcare, and the whole point of local decision making is that different places make different decisions depending on different circumstances.
    Nah. As I have said before on here, abolish all local government, job creation for politicians that it is, and standardise all services to be run by Whitehall (largely contacted out) and accountable to a minister. Much better, and cheaper through scale. People treat local elections as a referendum on Westminster anyway.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,589
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:

    Fucking hell. Birmingham expect to be back to one bin collection a week from the weekend. Our lot aren’t on strike and we don’t even get that…

    Until very recently, when wheelie bins became compulsory rather than merely widespread, Birmingham binmen would open your side gate, walk around the back of the house, pick the black bags out of the old aluminum bins and swing them over their shoulder, bolting the side gate on the way back to the lorry. So I have a soft spot for them, inefficient though it was.
    If I was PM, or perhaps ‘world king’, I would insist everyone had the same bin collection regime, and everyone had equal access to GPs. Sod immigration, it’s the little things that matter.
    Sounds a bit Communist.
    I always had Turbo down as a closet Soviet.
    Well I do work at a Uni. Not many Tories on the staff…
    Not that many Tories anywhere, these days.
    Although, depending on confidence intervals about as many Labour, Lib Dem’s or Reform voters…
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,144
    We can also look at excess mortality in countries like Russia, with a lower vaccination rate:

    "We estimate that there were 351,158 excess deaths in 2020 and 678,022 in 2021 in the Russian Federation; and, in 2020, around 2.0 years of life expectancy lost. While the Russian Federation exhibits very high levels of excess mortality compared to other countries, there is a wide degree of regional variation: in 2021, excess deaths expressed as a percentage of expected deaths at the regional level range from 27% to 52%.

    Life expectancy loss is generally greater for males; while excess mortality is greater in urban areas. For Russia as whole, an average person who died due to the pandemic in 2020 would have otherwise lived for a further 14 more years (and as high as 18 years in some regions), disproving the widely held view that excess mortality during the pandemic period was concentrated among those with few years of life remaining–especially for females."

    https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9629588/
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,050
    @harrylitman.bsky.social‬

    The DOJ lawyer who made the mistake of answering the court's questions about Abrego-Garcia candidly (eg yes he was mistakenly deported, a fact the Administration already has acknowledged), which got him put on administrative leave, has now been fired, ending his 15-year DOJ career..

    https://bsky.app/profile/harrylitman.bsky.social/post/3lmuukvcjdk2f
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,204
    Just realised, the 6-3 decision in Trump Vs United States means presidents don't have to pay a blind bit of notice to what the Supreme Court says.
    Effectively undoes Marbury for presidential actions. Quite astonishing they didn't realise that it gave over 200 years of judicial power and takes the court back to it's pre-Jefferson rather more limited role where any president (Trump at the moment) is concerned.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,380
    Foxy said:

    We can also look at excess mortality in countries like Russia, with a lower vaccination rate:

    "We estimate that there were 351,158 excess deaths in 2020 and 678,022 in 2021 in the Russian Federation; and, in 2020, around 2.0 years of life expectancy lost. While the Russian Federation exhibits very high levels of excess mortality compared to other countries, there is a wide degree of regional variation: in 2021, excess deaths expressed as a percentage of expected deaths at the regional level range from 27% to 52%.

    Life expectancy loss is generally greater for males; while excess mortality is greater in urban areas. For Russia as whole, an average person who died due to the pandemic in 2020 would have otherwise lived for a further 14 more years (and as high as 18 years in some regions), disproving the widely held view that excess mortality during the pandemic period was concentrated among those with few years of life remaining–especially for females."

    https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9629588/

    Does that include the people who suffered severe side effects from refusing the vaccine approved by Putin?

    I understand this could involve the mysterious and sudden opening of a window of opportunity for a new career in Sky-diving.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    edited April 15
    Sorry, but is anyone really having a vaccine debate? We live in a free country with a good health service. If there were any question of vaccine efficacy, we’d have found out. At some point you trust people.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,380
    biggles said:

    Sorry, but is anyone really having a vaccine debate? We will in a free country with a good health service. If there were any question of vaccine efficacy, we’d have found out.

    It's not really a debate. More a bot on the side.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,286
    Don said:

    Don said:

    Don said:

    Don said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the previous thread there was a discussion about Covid vaccines, and their danger, etc.

    And the funny bit is that I got involved in a "discussion" on this very issue on Substack only the other day. Someone claimed that Covid vaccines killed many times more people than the virus.

    Now, there is a basic statistical point that it is entirely possible for Covid vaccines to kill more people than Covid, and yet for them still to be a net positive for mortality.

    But I didn't want to go down that rabbit hole.

    Instead, I posed the following question: If Covid vaccines killed many more people than the virus could, then any country that was isolated from the virus due to geography, but which had mass Covid vaccinations must have had much worse excess deaths than one that experienced the virus.

    It is simply not possible for a country which did not get the virus, but did vaccinate everyone to have better outcomes, if the vaccine caused more death than the virus.

    So how come Australia and New Zealand - which both have close to 100% Covid vaccination rates, but which never experienced Covid, due to closure of their borders - had no excess deaths in 2020 or 2021 at all?

    So many errors here where do i start.
    1. The covid vaccine rollout in Australia wasnt completed until late 2021 so the figures for excess deaths for 2020 and most of 2021 are pretty irrelevant. Relatively few people had been vaccinated even first half of 2021.
    2. So we move to 2022 the first year after the vaccine rollout where there was 11.7% excess deaths. Pretty significant no.

    https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Community_Affairs/ExcessMortality47/Report/Chapter_2_-_Provisional_mortality_data_and_contributing_factors_to_excess_mortality

    So ironically using your own argument there is a strong case for covid vaccines being involved in the sudden spike in excess deaths in 2022 the first year after the vaccine rollout.
    Sure, they didn't *finish* Covid vaccines until the end of 2021.

    Nevertheless, they had essentially no Covid deaths at all in 2021, and their entire country got vaccinated that year.

    And they had negative excess deaths.

    So; how come they managed negative excess deaths in 2021, if the Covid vaccine was worse than Covid?

    Unless you're arguing that these terrible negative impacts of the vaccine only took hold in 2022. By which point, conveniently, both countries now had Covid.

    But even then, if you look across the entire period of Covid (2020 to end 2022), there was essentially no change in all factors mortality in AU/NZ.

    There are two possible scenarious:

    (1) The whole Covid thing is a hoax
    (2) The combination of cutting themself off from the world while Covid was rampant and population immunity low, followed by mass Covid vaccines worked

    Personally, Occam's razer suggests the second. But knock yourself out if you want to go with another explanation.
    If you allow me more than 1 post before banning me next time that would be appreciated. Doesnt show you have much confidence in your argument but hey ho

    1. There were positive excess deaths in 2021 by 1.6% so you havent even got the basic facts right there.
    2. You talk about Australia having covid in 2022 as a reason for the excess deaths.
    But firstly by then it was the relatively weak omicron variant circulatimg which wasnt especially deadly hence most countries had opened up.
    And secondly even if the covid circulating in 2022 had been relatively deadly it was the job of vaccines to stop deaths. And excess deaths of 11.7% showed they did a poor job of this.
    So either the vaccines were contributing to the excess deaths in 2022 or the vaccines were useless at stopping covid anyway.

    You argue in a confused way sometimes but maybe you are just a bit rushed.
    Omicron was ‘fairly weak’ in populations that had already had a lot of exposure to covid and had been vaccinated. No one in Australia had the initial exposures that most of the res5 of the world had, so there’s a potential explanation there.
    It’s not the lethality of the vaccines.
    Well sure but most of Australia had been vaccinated by the time Omicron was circulating.
    But had not had the exposure to wild type covid.
    If you really care I expect you can find data on vaccine harms and deaths in Australia. I’m pretty sure there will be a reporting system there like our yellow card system in the U.K. I suspect you won’t because you have already decided it’s the vaccines that did it.
    I havent decided anything. However by contrast you seem to have decided its definitely not the vaccines. I know who has a closed mind here.
    I’ve looked at the evidence around the vaccinations. It’s pretty unambiguous. People did undoubtedly die after being vaccinated. No question about that. But your assertion that Australia saw a spike in deaths because of the vaccines is preposterous.
    There was a big spike in excess deaths in 2022 in many countries around the world.
    I know I am wasting my time arguing with a troll but that is patently not true. Check it out here or provide some counter-evidence.

    https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,371
    edited April 15
    Charities have criticised the government for cutting the amount of funding families in England can access to pay for therapy for adopted children by 40%.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj68y4epe33o

    Its another weird decision where it is absolutely buttons in the grand scheme of things. Costs £50m per year, and yes they haven't reduced the total amount, its another thing that even if it went up by 10%, its absolutely nought.

    I bet the premium they paid on the coal was more than all of this. David Lammy's private jet bill could pay for this.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,127

    Did nobody comment that yet again the economic news in the UK is positive? Strange.

    What do you have in mind? The GDP number was unexpectedly positive but that was 4 days ago. The news today is that low deposit mortgage deals are at their highest for 17 years which is not great for anyone.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:

    Fucking hell. Birmingham expect to be back to one bin collection a week from the weekend. Our lot aren’t on strike and we don’t even get that…

    Until very recently, when wheelie bins became compulsory rather than merely widespread, Birmingham binmen would open your side gate, walk around the back of the house, pick the black bags out of the old aluminum bins and swing them over their shoulder, bolting the side gate on the way back to the lorry. So I have a soft spot for them, inefficient though it was.
    If I was PM, or perhaps ‘world king’, I would insist everyone had the same bin collection regime, and everyone had equal access to GPs. Sod immigration, it’s the little things that matter.
    Sounds a bit Communist.
    I always had Turbo down as a closet Soviet.
    Well I do work at a Uni. Not many Tories on the staff…
    Not that many Tories anywhere, these days.
    Although, depending on confidence intervals about as many Labour, Lib Dem’s or Reform voters…
    “Libdems”? Didn’t they used to be the ones in the yellow ties? Or were they the ones that were led by Lee Majors, the unknown stuntman? I can’t quite remember.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,286

    Don said:

    Don said:

    Don said:

    Don said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the previous thread there was a discussion about Covid vaccines, and their danger, etc.

    And the funny bit is that I got involved in a "discussion" on this very issue on Substack only the other day. Someone claimed that Covid vaccines killed many times more people than the virus.

    Now, there is a basic statistical point that it is entirely possible for Covid vaccines to kill more people than Covid, and yet for them still to be a net positive for mortality.

    But I didn't want to go down that rabbit hole.

    Instead, I posed the following question: If Covid vaccines killed many more people than the virus could, then any country that was isolated from the virus due to geography, but which had mass Covid vaccinations must have had much worse excess deaths than one that experienced the virus.

    It is simply not possible for a country which did not get the virus, but did vaccinate everyone to have better outcomes, if the vaccine caused more death than the virus.

    So how come Australia and New Zealand - which both have close to 100% Covid vaccination rates, but which never experienced Covid, due to closure of their borders - had no excess deaths in 2020 or 2021 at all?

    So many errors here where do i start.
    1. The covid vaccine rollout in Australia wasnt completed until late 2021 so the figures for excess deaths for 2020 and most of 2021 are pretty irrelevant. Relatively few people had been vaccinated even first half of 2021.
    2. So we move to 2022 the first year after the vaccine rollout where there was 11.7% excess deaths. Pretty significant no.

    https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Community_Affairs/ExcessMortality47/Report/Chapter_2_-_Provisional_mortality_data_and_contributing_factors_to_excess_mortality

    So ironically using your own argument there is a strong case for covid vaccines being involved in the sudden spike in excess deaths in 2022 the first year after the vaccine rollout.
    Sure, they didn't *finish* Covid vaccines until the end of 2021.

    Nevertheless, they had essentially no Covid deaths at all in 2021, and their entire country got vaccinated that year.

    And they had negative excess deaths.

    So; how come they managed negative excess deaths in 2021, if the Covid vaccine was worse than Covid?

    Unless you're arguing that these terrible negative impacts of the vaccine only took hold in 2022. By which point, conveniently, both countries now had Covid.

    But even then, if you look across the entire period of Covid (2020 to end 2022), there was essentially no change in all factors mortality in AU/NZ.

    There are two possible scenarious:

    (1) The whole Covid thing is a hoax
    (2) The combination of cutting themself off from the world while Covid was rampant and population immunity low, followed by mass Covid vaccines worked

    Personally, Occam's razer suggests the second. But knock yourself out if you want to go with another explanation.
    If you allow me more than 1 post before banning me next time that would be appreciated. Doesnt show you have much confidence in your argument but hey ho

    1. There were positive excess deaths in 2021 by 1.6% so you havent even got the basic facts right there.
    2. You talk about Australia having covid in 2022 as a reason for the excess deaths.
    But firstly by then it was the relatively weak omicron variant circulatimg which wasnt especially deadly hence most countries had opened up.
    And secondly even if the covid circulating in 2022 had been relatively deadly it was the job of vaccines to stop deaths. And excess deaths of 11.7% showed they did a poor job of this.
    So either the vaccines were contributing to the excess deaths in 2022 or the vaccines were useless at stopping covid anyway.

    You argue in a confused way sometimes but maybe you are just a bit rushed.
    Omicron was ‘fairly weak’ in populations that had already had a lot of exposure to covid and had been vaccinated. No one in Australia had the initial exposures that most of the res5 of the world had, so there’s a potential explanation there.
    It’s not the lethality of the vaccines.
    Well sure but most of Australia had been vaccinated by the time Omicron was circulating.
    But had not had the exposure to wild type covid.
    If you really care I expect you can find data on vaccine harms and deaths in Australia. I’m pretty sure there will be a reporting system there like our yellow card system in the U.K. I suspect you won’t because you have already decided it’s the vaccines that did it.
    I havent decided anything. However by contrast you seem to have decided its definitely not the vaccines. I know who has a closed mind here.
    I’ve looked at the evidence around the vaccinations. It’s pretty unambiguous. People did undoubtedly die after being vaccinated. No question about that. But your assertion that Australia saw a spike in deaths because of the vaccines is preposterous.
    There was a big spike in excess deaths in 2022 in many countries around the world.
    Most countries completed vaccination programs in 2021. If it was the vaccines wot dun it, why not a spike then? More likely is the reopening of society in the face of covid still being a threat.
    In fact there was no such 'big spike' anyway.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,664
    Is TSE moonlighting as British woman tennis player?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/articles/c4grz104wyxo

    "Dart asks for Boisson to 'put on deodorant' in Rouen exit"
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,896
    edited April 15

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:

    Fucking hell. Birmingham expect to be back to one bin collection a week from the weekend. Our lot aren’t on strike and we don’t even get that…

    Until very recently, when wheelie bins became compulsory rather than merely widespread, Birmingham binmen would open your side gate, walk around the back of the house, pick the black bags out of the old aluminum bins and swing them over their shoulder, bolting the side gate on the way back to the lorry. So I have a soft spot for them, inefficient though it was.
    If I was PM, or perhaps ‘world king’, I would insist everyone had the same bin collection regime, and everyone had equal access to GPs. Sod immigration, it’s the little things that matter.
    Sounds a bit Communist.
    I always had Turbo down as a closet Soviet.
    Well I do work at a Uni. Not many Tories on the staff…
    Not that many Tories anywhere, these days.
    Although, depending on confidence intervals about as many Labour, Lib Dem’s or Reform voters…
    Indeed and I suspect even fewer open Reform than Tory backers on the Uni staff, yet Reform and the Tories combined are on 45% or so in most polls. Academics with leftwing liberal leanings may have ideological disagreements with Tories which they could engage in over high table but Farage's gang are just populist rightwing oiks beneath contempt they wouldn't be seen dead dining with
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,144
    DavidL said:

    Did nobody comment that yet again the economic news in the UK is positive? Strange.

    What do you have in mind? The GDP number was unexpectedly positive but that was 4 days ago. The news today is that low deposit mortgage deals are at their highest for 17 years which is not great for anyone.
    Higher interest rates are good for savers, and we need more saving.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,201
    Don said:

    Don said:

    Don said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the previous thread there was a discussion about Covid vaccines, and their danger, etc.

    And the funny bit is that I got involved in a "discussion" on this very issue on Substack only the other day. Someone claimed that Covid vaccines killed many times more people than the virus.

    Now, there is a basic statistical point that it is entirely possible for Covid vaccines to kill more people than Covid, and yet for them still to be a net positive for mortality.

    But I didn't want to go down that rabbit hole.

    Instead, I posed the following question: If Covid vaccines killed many more people than the virus could, then any country that was isolated from the virus due to geography, but which had mass Covid vaccinations must have had much worse excess deaths than one that experienced the virus.

    It is simply not possible for a country which did not get the virus, but did vaccinate everyone to have better outcomes, if the vaccine caused more death than the virus.

    So how come Australia and New Zealand - which both have close to 100% Covid vaccination rates, but which never experienced Covid, due to closure of their borders - had no excess deaths in 2020 or 2021 at all?

    So many errors here where do i start.
    1. The covid vaccine rollout in Australia wasnt completed until late 2021 so the figures for excess deaths for 2020 and most of 2021 are pretty irrelevant. Relatively few people had been vaccinated even first half of 2021.
    2. So we move to 2022 the first year after the vaccine rollout where there was 11.7% excess deaths. Pretty significant no.

    https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Community_Affairs/ExcessMortality47/Report/Chapter_2_-_Provisional_mortality_data_and_contributing_factors_to_excess_mortality

    So ironically using your own argument there is a strong case for covid vaccines being involved in the sudden spike in excess deaths in 2022 the first year after the vaccine rollout.
    Sure, they didn't *finish* Covid vaccines until the end of 2021.

    Nevertheless, they had essentially no Covid deaths at all in 2021, and their entire country got vaccinated that year.

    And they had negative excess deaths.

    So; how come they managed negative excess deaths in 2021, if the Covid vaccine was worse than Covid?

    Unless you're arguing that these terrible negative impacts of the vaccine only took hold in 2022. By which point, conveniently, both countries now had Covid.

    But even then, if you look across the entire period of Covid (2020 to end 2022), there was essentially no change in all factors mortality in AU/NZ.

    There are two possible scenarious:

    (1) The whole Covid thing is a hoax
    (2) The combination of cutting themself off from the world while Covid was rampant and population immunity low, followed by mass Covid vaccines worked

    Personally, Occam's razer suggests the second. But knock yourself out if you want to go with another explanation.
    If you allow me more than 1 post before banning me next time that would be appreciated. Doesnt show you have much confidence in your argument but hey ho

    1. There were positive excess deaths in 2021 by 1.6% so you havent even got the basic facts right there.
    2. You talk about Australia having covid in 2022 as a reason for the excess deaths.
    But firstly by then it was the relatively weak omicron variant circulatimg which wasnt especially deadly hence most countries had opened up.
    And secondly even if the covid circulating in 2022 had been relatively deadly it was the job of vaccines to stop deaths. And excess deaths of 11.7% showed they did a poor job of this.
    So either the vaccines were contributing to the excess deaths in 2022 or the vaccines were useless at stopping covid anyway.

    You argue in a confused way sometimes but maybe you are just a bit rushed.
    Omicron was ‘fairly weak’ in populations that had already had a lot of exposure to covid and had been vaccinated. No one in Australia had the initial exposures that most of the res5 of the world had, so there’s a potential explanation there.
    It’s not the lethality of the vaccines.
    Well sure but most of Australia had been vaccinated by the time Omicron was circulating.
    But had not had the exposure to wild type covid.
    If you really care I expect you can find data on vaccine harms and deaths in Australia. I’m pretty sure there will be a reporting system there like our yellow card system in the U.K. I suspect you won’t because you have already decided it’s the vaccines that did it.
    I havent decided anything. However by contrast you seem to have decided its definitely not the vaccines. I know who has a closed mind here.
    Five posts in and (anti-vax) studs are up.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,201
    edited April 15
    biggles said:

    Sorry, but is anyone really having a vaccine debate? We live in a free country with a good health service. If there were any question of vaccine efficacy, we’d have found out. At some point you trust people.

    Anti-vax was Leon's alternative thread last night, so it's a hot topic- unfortunately.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,664
    edited April 15

    Charities have criticised the government for cutting the amount of funding families in England can access to pay for therapy for adopted children by 40%.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj68y4epe33o

    Its another weird decision where it is absolutely buttons in the grand scheme of things. Costs £50m per year, and yes they haven't reduced the total amount, its another thing that even if it went up by 10%, its absolutely nought.

    I bet the premium they paid on the coal was more than all of this. David Lammy's private jet bill could pay for this.

    The fact that Tax'n'spend Labour halved foreign aid instead of taxing something, and got away with it, continues to blow my mind.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,589
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:

    Fucking hell. Birmingham expect to be back to one bin collection a week from the weekend. Our lot aren’t on strike and we don’t even get that…

    Until very recently, when wheelie bins became compulsory rather than merely widespread, Birmingham binmen would open your side gate, walk around the back of the house, pick the black bags out of the old aluminum bins and swing them over their shoulder, bolting the side gate on the way back to the lorry. So I have a soft spot for them, inefficient though it was.
    If I was PM, or perhaps ‘world king’, I would insist everyone had the same bin collection regime, and everyone had equal access to GPs. Sod immigration, it’s the little things that matter.
    Sounds a bit Communist.
    I always had Turbo down as a closet Soviet.
    Well I do work at a Uni. Not many Tories on the staff…
    Not that many Tories anywhere, these days.
    Although, depending on confidence intervals about as many Labour, Lib Dem’s or Reform voters…
    Indeed and I suspect even fewer open Reform than Tory backers on the Uni staff, yet Reform and the Tories combined are on 45% or so in most polls. Academics with leftwing leanings may have ideological disagreements with Tories but Farage's gang are just populist oiks beneath contempt
    Bath is an odd place in many ways but it does follow the typical academic mind set most of the time. After the 2019 election a colleague came up to me and said how awful the result was. I disagreed as I could not countenance Corbyn being anywhere near power. What was striking was the assumption my colleague had made about my opinion.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,144

    Charities have criticised the government for cutting the amount of funding families in England can access to pay for therapy for adopted children by 40%.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj68y4epe33o

    Its another weird decision where it is absolutely buttons in the grand scheme of things. Costs £50m per year, and yes they haven't reduced the total amount, its another thing that even if it went up by 10%, its absolutely nought.

    I bet the premium they paid on the coal was more than all of this. David Lammy's private jet bill could pay for this.

    Despite all the efforts at selection and screening, about 10% of adoptions wind up with the child back in care. It's very traumatic for all involved, and devastating for the child in particular. Sadly love doesn't conquer all, and many of these kids are heavily traumatised. Some counselling and support seems money well spent to me, to keep this to a minimum.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,664

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:

    Fucking hell. Birmingham expect to be back to one bin collection a week from the weekend. Our lot aren’t on strike and we don’t even get that…

    Until very recently, when wheelie bins became compulsory rather than merely widespread, Birmingham binmen would open your side gate, walk around the back of the house, pick the black bags out of the old aluminum bins and swing them over their shoulder, bolting the side gate on the way back to the lorry. So I have a soft spot for them, inefficient though it was.
    If I was PM, or perhaps ‘world king’, I would insist everyone had the same bin collection regime, and everyone had equal access to GPs. Sod immigration, it’s the little things that matter.
    Sounds a bit Communist.
    I always had Turbo down as a closet Soviet.
    Well I do work at a Uni. Not many Tories on the staff…
    Not that many Tories anywhere, these days.
    Although, depending on confidence intervals about as many Labour, Lib Dem’s or Reform voters…
    Indeed and I suspect even fewer open Reform than Tory backers on the Uni staff, yet Reform and the Tories combined are on 45% or so in most polls. Academics with leftwing leanings may have ideological disagreements with Tories but Farage's gang are just populist oiks beneath contempt
    Bath is an odd place in many ways but it does follow the typical academic mind set most of the time. After the 2019 election a colleague came up to me and said how awful the result was. I disagreed as I could not countenance Corbyn being anywhere near power. What was striking was the assumption my colleague had made about my opinion.
    Things people say when they assume no-one in the room could possibly have voted for Brexit are interesting. The things I've heard at my occasional visits to Fen Poly high tables over the past few years would make Roger seem demure.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,371
    edited April 15
    Foxy said:

    Charities have criticised the government for cutting the amount of funding families in England can access to pay for therapy for adopted children by 40%.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj68y4epe33o

    Its another weird decision where it is absolutely buttons in the grand scheme of things. Costs £50m per year, and yes they haven't reduced the total amount, its another thing that even if it went up by 10%, its absolutely nought.

    I bet the premium they paid on the coal was more than all of this. David Lammy's private jet bill could pay for this.

    Despite all the efforts at selection and screening, about 10% of adoptions wind up with the child back in care. It's very traumatic for all involved, and devastating for the child in particular. Sadly love doesn't conquer all, and many of these kids are heavily traumatised. Some counselling and support seems money well spent to me, to keep this to a minimum.
    The government keep doing this where they cut these schemes that really don't cost anything but hard to see how they aren't giving quite a lot of benefit for very little e.g. the push on teaching more maths. The £15m extra for the AZN research centre.

    Not only for Labour government to do this, but it won't achieve anything in terms of making the financial rules or not even if that is your motivation. Are we sure they haven't employed somebody from DOGE?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,488
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Did nobody comment that yet again the economic news in the UK is positive? Strange.

    What do you have in mind? The GDP number was unexpectedly positive but that was 4 days ago. The news today is that low deposit mortgage deals are at their highest for 17 years which is not great for anyone.
    Higher interest rates are good for savers, and we need more saving.
    Lower taxes are rather better. They let the thrifty and the aspirational keep more of their own money to save, and they increase the reward to saving by allowing them to keep more of the interest they earn.

    What's the point in saving now when the government's taxes mean you'll barely be breaking even in real terms after taxes?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,144
    carnforth said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:

    Fucking hell. Birmingham expect to be back to one bin collection a week from the weekend. Our lot aren’t on strike and we don’t even get that…

    Until very recently, when wheelie bins became compulsory rather than merely widespread, Birmingham binmen would open your side gate, walk around the back of the house, pick the black bags out of the old aluminum bins and swing them over their shoulder, bolting the side gate on the way back to the lorry. So I have a soft spot for them, inefficient though it was.
    If I was PM, or perhaps ‘world king’, I would insist everyone had the same bin collection regime, and everyone had equal access to GPs. Sod immigration, it’s the little things that matter.
    Sounds a bit Communist.
    I always had Turbo down as a closet Soviet.
    Well I do work at a Uni. Not many Tories on the staff…
    Not that many Tories anywhere, these days.
    Although, depending on confidence intervals about as many Labour, Lib Dem’s or Reform voters…
    Indeed and I suspect even fewer open Reform than Tory backers on the Uni staff, yet Reform and the Tories combined are on 45% or so in most polls. Academics with leftwing leanings may have ideological disagreements with Tories but Farage's gang are just populist oiks beneath contempt
    Bath is an odd place in many ways but it does follow the typical academic mind set most of the time. After the 2019 election a colleague came up to me and said how awful the result was. I disagreed as I could not countenance Corbyn being anywhere near power. What was striking was the assumption my colleague had made about my opinion.
    Things people say when they assume no-one in the room could possibly have voted for Brexit are interesting. The things I've heard at my occasional visits to Fen Poly high tables over the past few years would make Roger seem demure.
    It works both ways, most pubs have a pub bore who thinks himself witty and assumes everyone present is as bigoted and misogynist as himself.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,664
    edited April 15
    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:

    Fucking hell. Birmingham expect to be back to one bin collection a week from the weekend. Our lot aren’t on strike and we don’t even get that…

    Until very recently, when wheelie bins became compulsory rather than merely widespread, Birmingham binmen would open your side gate, walk around the back of the house, pick the black bags out of the old aluminum bins and swing them over their shoulder, bolting the side gate on the way back to the lorry. So I have a soft spot for them, inefficient though it was.
    If I was PM, or perhaps ‘world king’, I would insist everyone had the same bin collection regime, and everyone had equal access to GPs. Sod immigration, it’s the little things that matter.
    Sounds a bit Communist.
    I always had Turbo down as a closet Soviet.
    Well I do work at a Uni. Not many Tories on the staff…
    Not that many Tories anywhere, these days.
    Although, depending on confidence intervals about as many Labour, Lib Dem’s or Reform voters…
    Indeed and I suspect even fewer open Reform than Tory backers on the Uni staff, yet Reform and the Tories combined are on 45% or so in most polls. Academics with leftwing leanings may have ideological disagreements with Tories but Farage's gang are just populist oiks beneath contempt
    Bath is an odd place in many ways but it does follow the typical academic mind set most of the time. After the 2019 election a colleague came up to me and said how awful the result was. I disagreed as I could not countenance Corbyn being anywhere near power. What was striking was the assumption my colleague had made about my opinion.
    Things people say when they assume no-one in the room could possibly have voted for Brexit are interesting. The things I've heard at my occasional visits to Fen Poly high tables over the past few years would make Roger seem demure.
    It works both ways, most pubs have a pub bore who thinks himself witty and assumes everyone present is as bigoted and misogynist as himself.
    Indeed. But he's not the establishment. And nor is he in charge of admissions. One of the anecdotes I heard at dinner involves an interviewee who admitted voting Leave.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,050
    The DOJ are back in court arguing why they can't return the guy they mistakenly sent to a concentration camp in El Salvador.

    I don't think it's going well for them
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,144
    carnforth said:

    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:

    Fucking hell. Birmingham expect to be back to one bin collection a week from the weekend. Our lot aren’t on strike and we don’t even get that…

    Until very recently, when wheelie bins became compulsory rather than merely widespread, Birmingham binmen would open your side gate, walk around the back of the house, pick the black bags out of the old aluminum bins and swing them over their shoulder, bolting the side gate on the way back to the lorry. So I have a soft spot for them, inefficient though it was.
    If I was PM, or perhaps ‘world king’, I would insist everyone had the same bin collection regime, and everyone had equal access to GPs. Sod immigration, it’s the little things that matter.
    Sounds a bit Communist.
    I always had Turbo down as a closet Soviet.
    Well I do work at a Uni. Not many Tories on the staff…
    Not that many Tories anywhere, these days.
    Although, depending on confidence intervals about as many Labour, Lib Dem’s or Reform voters…
    Indeed and I suspect even fewer open Reform than Tory backers on the Uni staff, yet Reform and the Tories combined are on 45% or so in most polls. Academics with leftwing leanings may have ideological disagreements with Tories but Farage's gang are just populist oiks beneath contempt
    Bath is an odd place in many ways but it does follow the typical academic mind set most of the time. After the 2019 election a colleague came up to me and said how awful the result was. I disagreed as I could not countenance Corbyn being anywhere near power. What was striking was the assumption my colleague had made about my opinion.
    Things people say when they assume no-one in the room could possibly have voted for Brexit are interesting. The things I've heard at my occasional visits to Fen Poly high tables over the past few years would make Roger seem demure.
    It works both ways, most pubs have a pub bore who thinks himself witty and assumes everyone present is as bigoted and misogynist as himself.
    Indeed. But he's not the establishment. And nor is he in charge of admissions. One of the anecdotes I heard at dinner involves an interviewee who admitted voting Leave.
    How do you know he isn't the establishment? Or influencing people on Social or mainstream media? Or even running for political office?

  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,664
    Fishing said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Did nobody comment that yet again the economic news in the UK is positive? Strange.

    What do you have in mind? The GDP number was unexpectedly positive but that was 4 days ago. The news today is that low deposit mortgage deals are at their highest for 17 years which is not great for anyone.
    Higher interest rates are good for savers, and we need more saving.
    Lower taxes are rather better. They let the thrifty and the aspirational keep more of their own money to save, and they increase the reward to saving by allowing them to keep more of the interest they earn.

    What's the point in saving now when the government's taxes mean you'll barely be breaking even in real terms after taxes?
    £20000 per year is not a small allowance for tax-free savings.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,371
    Wealthier households could be made to shoulder higher costs for running and upgrading the UK’s network of energy cables and pipes to help low-income bill payers under new plans to be considered this summer.

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2025/apr/15/increased-bills-for-higher-earners-could-fund-uk-energy-upgrade-ofgem-says
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,286
    Fishing said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Did nobody comment that yet again the economic news in the UK is positive? Strange.

    What do you have in mind? The GDP number was unexpectedly positive but that was 4 days ago. The news today is that low deposit mortgage deals are at their highest for 17 years which is not great for anyone.
    Higher interest rates are good for savers, and we need more saving.
    Lower taxes are rather better. They let the thrifty and the aspirational keep more of their own money to save, and they increase the reward to saving by allowing them to keep more of the interest they earn.

    What's the point in saving now when the government's taxes mean you'll barely be breaking even in real terms after taxes?
    You've never heard of ISAs? £20k pa not enough tax free saving for you?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,664
    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:

    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:

    Fucking hell. Birmingham expect to be back to one bin collection a week from the weekend. Our lot aren’t on strike and we don’t even get that…

    Until very recently, when wheelie bins became compulsory rather than merely widespread, Birmingham binmen would open your side gate, walk around the back of the house, pick the black bags out of the old aluminum bins and swing them over their shoulder, bolting the side gate on the way back to the lorry. So I have a soft spot for them, inefficient though it was.
    If I was PM, or perhaps ‘world king’, I would insist everyone had the same bin collection regime, and everyone had equal access to GPs. Sod immigration, it’s the little things that matter.
    Sounds a bit Communist.
    I always had Turbo down as a closet Soviet.
    Well I do work at a Uni. Not many Tories on the staff…
    Not that many Tories anywhere, these days.
    Although, depending on confidence intervals about as many Labour, Lib Dem’s or Reform voters…
    Indeed and I suspect even fewer open Reform than Tory backers on the Uni staff, yet Reform and the Tories combined are on 45% or so in most polls. Academics with leftwing leanings may have ideological disagreements with Tories but Farage's gang are just populist oiks beneath contempt
    Bath is an odd place in many ways but it does follow the typical academic mind set most of the time. After the 2019 election a colleague came up to me and said how awful the result was. I disagreed as I could not countenance Corbyn being anywhere near power. What was striking was the assumption my colleague had made about my opinion.
    Things people say when they assume no-one in the room could possibly have voted for Brexit are interesting. The things I've heard at my occasional visits to Fen Poly high tables over the past few years would make Roger seem demure.
    It works both ways, most pubs have a pub bore who thinks himself witty and assumes everyone present is as bigoted and misogynist as himself.
    Indeed. But he's not the establishment. And nor is he in charge of admissions. One of the anecdotes I heard at dinner involves an interviewee who admitted voting Leave.
    How do you know he isn't the establishment? Or influencing people on Social or mainstream media? Or even running for political office?

    Fair point. Not sure about the last sentence though. Why shouldn't he run for office like anyone else?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,201
    ...
    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:

    Fucking hell. Birmingham expect to be back to one bin collection a week from the weekend. Our lot aren’t on strike and we don’t even get that…

    Until very recently, when wheelie bins became compulsory rather than merely widespread, Birmingham binmen would open your side gate, walk around the back of the house, pick the black bags out of the old aluminum bins and swing them over their shoulder, bolting the side gate on the way back to the lorry. So I have a soft spot for them, inefficient though it was.
    If I was PM, or perhaps ‘world king’, I would insist everyone had the same bin collection regime, and everyone had equal access to GPs. Sod immigration, it’s the little things that matter.
    Sounds a bit Communist.
    I always had Turbo down as a closet Soviet.
    Well I do work at a Uni. Not many Tories on the staff…
    Not that many Tories anywhere, these days.
    Although, depending on confidence intervals about as many Labour, Lib Dem’s or Reform voters…
    Indeed and I suspect even fewer open Reform than Tory backers on the Uni staff, yet Reform and the Tories combined are on 45% or so in most polls. Academics with leftwing leanings may have ideological disagreements with Tories but Farage's gang are just populist oiks beneath contempt
    Bath is an odd place in many ways but it does follow the typical academic mind set most of the time. After the 2019 election a colleague came up to me and said how awful the result was. I disagreed as I could not countenance Corbyn being anywhere near power. What was striking was the assumption my colleague had made about my opinion.
    Things people say when they assume no-one in the room could possibly have voted for Brexit are interesting. The things I've heard at my occasional visits to Fen Poly high tables over the past few years would make Roger seem demure.
    It works both ways, most pubs have a pub bore who thinks himself witty and assumes everyone present is as bigoted and misogynist as himself.
    This place is a bit like an online boozer. No pub bores who think themselves witty and prescient here, I don't think.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,336

    Wealthier households could be made to shoulder higher costs for running and upgrading the UK’s network of energy cables and pipes to help low-income bill payers under new plans to be considered this summer.

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2025/apr/15/increased-bills-for-higher-earners-could-fund-uk-energy-upgrade-ofgem-says

    Why isn't this just done via taxation?
Sign In or Register to comment.