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The Trump impact? – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,559

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Talking of Truss, I caught up with an old University chum for the first time in nearly 30 years on Sunday. He editor of the Oxford Student (OUSU funded rival of Cherwell) and told me of some of the lickspittle surrounding Truss when we were there (we were in the same year as her). I vaguely remembered some of the stories from the time but didn't associate them with her until he reminded me. For once in his existence it appears Leon might be right about something.

    lol

    It always ends up here

    "So it turns out Leon was right about something"

    Lab Leak, Covid, THING, China, THING, Nordstream, Biden's decline, on and on
    You told us the other day the capital of Kazakhstan is still called Nur-Sultan! It reverted to Astana in 2022.
    It's clear that you think you have a point here

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5177349/#Comment_5177349
    I do indeed!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astana

    Initially founded as Akmoly in 1830, the city was later renamed Akmolinsk, Tselinograd, and Akmola before adopting the name Astana in 1998, which means "capital city" in Kazakh.[15] In 2019, the city briefly adopted the name Nur-Sultan in honor of former president Nursultan Nazarbayev, but it returned to the name Astana in 2022.
    Leon called it Astana in the comment I just posted

    Leon called it Nur-Sultan in this comment on Sunday 8.18pm:

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5176716/#Comment_5176716
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,574
    edited April 15
    On that oak tree which has been destroyed, it is on the edge of a complex planning application on an adjacent former golf course for Spurs for a training centre.

    So I speculate that they hoped to clear it out on the quiet for whatever reason and that no one would notice in the dealings with hundreds of trees and realignment of umpteen footpaths and accesses by Spurs.

    The statements coming from Toby Carvery are very notably defending their removing it as a significant 'Health and Safety Risk' to their car park, as they are grateful to have been 'advised by our experts'.

    IMO they are putting a pre-emptive dictionary down their trousers, in the hope that it will be difficult to prosecute, and also a Plan B to blame somebody else just in case.
  • vikvik Posts: 247
    edited April 15
    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the previous thread there was a discussion about Covid vaccines, and their danger, etc.

    And the funny bit is that I got involved in a "discussion" on this very issue on Substack only the other day. Someone claimed that Covid vaccines killed many times more people than the virus.

    Now, there is a basic statistical point that it is entirely possible for Covid vaccines to kill more people than Covid, and yet for them still to be a net positive for mortality.

    But I didn't want to go down that rabbit hole.

    Instead, I posed the following question: If Covid vaccines killed many more people than the virus could, then any country that was isolated from the virus due to geography, but which had mass Covid vaccinations must have had much worse excess deaths than one that experienced the virus.

    It is simply not possible for a country which did not get the virus, but did vaccinate everyone to have better outcomes, if the vaccine caused more death than the virus.

    So how come Australia and New Zealand - which both have close to 100% Covid vaccination rates, but which never experienced Covid, due to closure of their borders - had no excess deaths in 2020 or 2021 at all?

    There is a very well established connection between covid vaccinations and myocarditis, but there is also a much more common connection between covid infection and myocarditis, and more severe too.

    Indeed it wouldn't surprise me if the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular complications of covid infection are bigger killers now than respiratory complications. There's an increased risk of vascular events for about 6 months after infection.
    Australia and New Zealand probably initially escaped the worst (prior immunity to coronoviruses may have played a part too) due to their ridiculous border closure policies but that led to other disastrous economic and social problems..They still ended up with plenty of excess deaths in 2022/3 too..
    Yes, those incredibly unpopular border closures with - checks - massive public support.
    The claim that Australia has "disastrous economic and social problems" is also total rubbish.

    Australia has problems with inflation, but so has every other developed country. Otherwise, the country is perfectly fine.

    Also it's worth noting that our Right-wing lunatics (One Nation Party) struggle to reach 10% in polls, and are currently around 8% in the polling averages.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,574

    MattW said:

    DougSeal said:


    ‪Glen O'Hara‬ ‪@gsoh31.bsky.social‬
    ·
    41s
    A thousand US student visa terminations. No-one's going to study there then.

    https://bsky.app/profile/gsoh31.bsky.social/post/3lmuey6bflc2f



    How big is Harvard's endowment fund? There are going to need it...

    $53.2 billion as of June 30 last year

    https://www.hmc.harvard.edu/partners-performance/
    That will deliver something like 2-2.5% on a recurring basis to be taken out, whilst the capital also increases by inflation each year - I think that is the normal guideline.

    So $1.5bn or thereabouts.

    How much research funding is Trump threatening to stop if they won't follow his predilections?

    For Columbia University, iirc he was threatening $400m per annum, which was essentially as much as their endowment income.
    About $2 billion, according to the Beeb;

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz01y9gkdm3o

    Whether that's per year, or in total, doesn't seem clear from the reporting. Seriously difficult to manage, but probably not impossible. I suspect Harvard will still be doing what it does as smugly as ever when Trump and Vance are only appearing in "a warning from history" documentaries.
    If Trump just stops it, that's a $2bn hole in the accounts - even if temporary. And the endowment income will be committed already. Presumably they can liquidate some assets - but it's a big hit.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,624
    kinabalu said:

    Why is my top concern (Inequality) never included in these "most important issue" poll choices? Immigration, by contrast, is always there. People moan that they are not allowed to moan that there's too many foreigners around the place, but the fact is you can tick that box if you want to. You can register that view in one of these polls. Get your (strident and unpleasant) voice heard. I can't do that. My box isn't there to be ticked. So my voice is not heard.

    Isn’t this polling done with an open ended question and then answers are coded by the pollster?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,574
    kinabalu said:

    Why is my top concern (Inequality) never included in these "most important issue" poll choices? Immigration, by contrast, is always there. People moan that they are not allowed to moan that there's too many foreigners around the place, but the fact is you can tick that box if you want to. You can register that view in one of these polls. Get your (strident and unpleasant) voice heard. I can't do that. My box isn't there to be ticked. So my voice is not heard.

    I'd say because inequality is not something that can be pointed at easily by the man on the Clapped Out Omnibus. It is diffuse.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,624

    kinabalu said:

    Why is my top concern (Inequality) never included in these "most important issue" poll choices? Immigration, by contrast, is always there. People moan that they are not allowed to moan that there's too many foreigners around the place, but the fact is you can tick that box if you want to. You can register that view in one of these polls. Get your (strident and unpleasant) voice heard. I can't do that. My box isn't there to be ticked. So my voice is not heard.

    Isn’t this polling done with an open ended question and then answers are coded by the pollster?
    Ok, so, no, I’m wrong, YouGov doesn’t do that, but some other pollsters do.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,814
    MattW said:

    On that oak tree which has been destroyed, it is on the edge of a complex planning application on an adjacent former golf course for Spurs for a training centre.

    So I speculate that they hoped to clear it out on the quiet for whatever reason and that no one would notice in the dealings with hundreds of trees and realignment of umpteen footpaths and accesses by Spurs.

    The statements coming from Toby Carvery are very notably defending their removing it as a significant 'Health and Safety Risk' to their car park, as they are grateful to have been 'advised by our experts'.

    IMO they are putting a pre-emptive dictionary down their trousers, in the hope that it will be difficult to prosecute, and also a Plan B to blame somebody else just in case.

    just a load of oak nonsense if you ask me
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,446
    Bill Kristol
    @BillKristol
    ·
    16h
    A handful of R senators and House members could announce: They're caucusing with the Dems for now and will vote for Schumer for Majority Leader and Jeffries for Speaker. And they'll do this in order to work with Democrats to construct guardrails against dictatorship.

    https://x.com/BillKristol/status/1911938619884843486
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,292
    Toby Woodcutter.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,371
    Western car companies are so f##ked,

    ‘The EV that does everything’ complete with 10 minute charging and 825 km range
    https://electrek.co/2025/04/15/zeekr-unveils-7gt-as-the-ev-that-does-everything-complete-with-10-minute-charging-and-825-km-range/

    For £20k
  • vikvik Posts: 247
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    DougSeal said:


    ‪Glen O'Hara‬ ‪@gsoh31.bsky.social‬
    ·
    41s
    A thousand US student visa terminations. No-one's going to study there then.

    https://bsky.app/profile/gsoh31.bsky.social/post/3lmuey6bflc2f



    How big is Harvard's endowment fund? There are going to need it...

    $53.2 billion as of June 30 last year

    https://www.hmc.harvard.edu/partners-performance/
    That will deliver something like 2-2.5% on a recurring basis to be taken out, whilst the capital also increases by inflation each year - I think that is the normal guideline.

    So $1.5bn or thereabouts.

    How much research funding is Trump threatening to stop if they won't follow his predilections?

    For Columbia University, iirc he was threatening $400m per annum, which was essentially as much as their endowment income.
    About $2 billion, according to the Beeb;

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz01y9gkdm3o

    Whether that's per year, or in total, doesn't seem clear from the reporting. Seriously difficult to manage, but probably not impossible. I suspect Harvard will still be doing what it does as smugly as ever when Trump and Vance are only appearing in "a warning from history" documentaries.
    If Trump just stops it, that's a $2bn hole in the accounts - even if temporary. And the endowment income will be committed already. Presumably they can liquidate some assets - but it's a big hit.
    The news reports say that the $2bn is for "multi-year grants", but don't specify the exact number of years. Both sides have an interest in magnifying the amounts involved, and the actual amounts per year might be a lot less than than $2bn.

    I think a future Democratic administration would also be happy to return all the frozen funds back to Harvard, so the hit would only be temporary.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,371

    Scott_xP said:

    *OPENAI BUILDING A X-LIKE SOCIAL NETWORK: VERGE
    *OPENAI SOCIAL NETWORK IN EARLY STAGES: VERGE

    Musk is going to completely lose his shit

    Suddenly pivoting into unrelated business is a bad sign, generally. Hmmmmm….
    The Social Media for bots....bots talking to bots.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,283
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    DougSeal said:


    ‪Glen O'Hara‬ ‪@gsoh31.bsky.social‬
    ·
    41s
    A thousand US student visa terminations. No-one's going to study there then.

    https://bsky.app/profile/gsoh31.bsky.social/post/3lmuey6bflc2f



    How big is Harvard's endowment fund? There are going to need it...

    $53.2 billion as of June 30 last year

    https://www.hmc.harvard.edu/partners-performance/
    That will deliver something like 2-2.5% on a recurring basis to be taken out, whilst the capital also increases by inflation each year - I think that is the normal guideline.

    So $1.5bn or thereabouts.

    How much research funding is Trump threatening to stop if they won't follow his predilections?

    For Columbia University, iirc he was threatening $400m per annum, which was essentially as much as their endowment income.
    About $2 billion, according to the Beeb;

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz01y9gkdm3o

    Whether that's per year, or in total, doesn't seem clear from the reporting. Seriously difficult to manage, but probably not impossible. I suspect Harvard will still be doing what it does as smugly as ever when Trump and Vance are only appearing in "a warning from history" documentaries.
    If Trump just stops it, that's a $2bn hole in the accounts - even if temporary. And the endowment income will be committed already. Presumably they can liquidate some assets - but it's a big hit.
    It is a big hit: there will be a significant negative impact on financial support for poorer students, fees will probably have to rise (from their already insane levels), and there will be cutbacks in terms of teaching, research, and the like.

    Basically: belts will need to be tightened, no matter how large the endowment.

    On the other hand, Harvard's endowment and fee income is so large, that I'm sure it can stick two fingers up at the government.

    An interesting question is the extent to which States step up and support institutions. Could Massachusetts offer additional help for poorer students going to Harvard, for example? Or could a group of Democratic states combine and offer funding grants for research into climate change?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,719
    MattW said:

    kinabalu said:

    Why is my top concern (Inequality) never included in these "most important issue" poll choices? Immigration, by contrast, is always there. People moan that they are not allowed to moan that there's too many foreigners around the place, but the fact is you can tick that box if you want to. You can register that view in one of these polls. Get your (strident and unpleasant) voice heard. I can't do that. My box isn't there to be ticked. So my voice is not heard.

    I'd say because inequality is not something that can be pointed at easily by the man on the Clapped Out Omnibus. It is diffuse.
    Yes, I suppose it kind of underlies other specific areas such as economy, nhs, housing etc. Ok, I'm mollified.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,719

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Talking of Truss, I caught up with an old University chum for the first time in nearly 30 years on Sunday. He editor of the Oxford Student (OUSU funded rival of Cherwell) and told me of some of the lickspittle surrounding Truss when we were there (we were in the same year as her). I vaguely remembered some of the stories from the time but didn't associate them with her until he reminded me. For once in his existence it appears Leon might be right about something.

    lol

    It always ends up here

    "So it turns out Leon was right about something"

    Lab Leak, Covid, THING, China, THING, Nordstream, Biden's decline, on and on
    You told us the other day the capital of Kazakhstan is still called Nur-Sultan! It reverted to Astana in 2022.
    It's clear that you think you have a point here

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5177349/#Comment_5177349
    I do indeed!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astana

    Initially founded as Akmoly in 1830, the city was later renamed Akmolinsk, Tselinograd, and Akmola before adopting the name Astana in 1998, which means "capital city" in Kazakh.[15] In 2019, the city briefly adopted the name Nur-Sultan in honor of former president Nursultan Nazarbayev, but it returned to the name Astana in 2022.
    Leon called it Astana in the comment I just posted

    Leon called it Nur-Sultan in this comment on Sunday 8.18pm:

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5176716/#Comment_5176716
    "Nur-Sultan" ... lol.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,283

    Bill Kristol
    @BillKristol
    ·
    16h
    A handful of R senators and House members could announce: They're caucusing with the Dems for now and will vote for Schumer for Majority Leader and Jeffries for Speaker. And they'll do this in order to work with Democrats to construct guardrails against dictatorship.

    https://x.com/BillKristol/status/1911938619884843486

    Not going to happen because you would get kicked out of the Republican Party, and would face threats of violence.

    For members of the House of Representatives it would result in you being Primaried and losing by a massive margin.

    Some Senators, many of whom are retiring, might have a different view (Murkowski, Collins and McConnell for instance). But most are scared of the immediate threat of the Primary over the more abstract threat of the voters kicking you out.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,397
    College said:


    In today's thrilling action on Political Betting com, board member Sunil_Prasannan reminded the board that board member Leon had referred to the Kazakh capital as Astana, the name by which it stopped being known in 2022, but board member BlancheLivermore was quick to point out that in fact board member Leon had referred to it under its current name of Nur-Sultan as recently as (Continued on Page 903.)

    Er - other way around. It was called Nur-Sultan from 2019-22 but then reverted to Astana.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,148
    edited April 15
    kinabalu said:

    Why is my top concern (Inequality) never included in these "most important issue" poll choices? Immigration, by contrast, is always there. People moan that they are not allowed to moan that there's too many foreigners around the place, but the fact is you can tick that box if you want to. You can register that view in one of these polls. Get your (strident and unpleasant) voice heard. I can't do that. My box isn't there to be ticked. So my voice is not heard.

    My bugbear with this sort of polling is that it flags the issue, but not your opinion

    So for example I could tick defence, but it doesn't mean that I want more spending, it could be less or simply spent differently. Ditto government borrowing, whether I want more or less.
  • CollegeCollege Posts: 63
    ydoethur said:

    College said:


    In today's thrilling action on Political Betting com, board member Sunil_Prasannan reminded the board that board member Leon had referred to the Kazakh capital as Astana, the name by which it stopped being known in 2022, but board member BlancheLivermore was quick to point out that in fact board member Leon had referred to it under its current name of Nur-Sultan as recently as (Continued on Page 903.)

    Er - other way around. It was called Nur-Sultan from 2019-22 but then reverted to Astana.
    OMG I am sorry!
  • gettingbettergettingbetter Posts: 583
    College said:

    ydoethur said:

    College said:


    In today's thrilling action on Political Betting com, board member Sunil_Prasannan reminded the board that board member Leon had referred to the Kazakh capital as Astana, the name by which it stopped being known in 2022, but board member BlancheLivermore was quick to point out that in fact board member Leon had referred to it under its current name of Nur-Sultan as recently as (Continued on Page 903.)

    Er - other way around. It was called Nur-Sultan from 2019-22 but then reverted to Astana.
    OMG I am sorry!
    When I was last there Almaty was the capital. I don't remember being impressed by the cities but the mountains are some of the most beautiful places in the world I have seen (I am not well travelled like Leon).
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,446
    rcs1000 said:

    Bill Kristol
    @BillKristol
    ·
    16h
    A handful of R senators and House members could announce: They're caucusing with the Dems for now and will vote for Schumer for Majority Leader and Jeffries for Speaker. And they'll do this in order to work with Democrats to construct guardrails against dictatorship.

    https://x.com/BillKristol/status/1911938619884843486

    Not going to happen because you would get kicked out of the Republican Party, and would face threats of violence.

    For members of the House of Representatives it would result in you being Primaried and losing by a massive margin.

    Some Senators, many of whom are retiring, might have a different view (Murkowski, Collins and McConnell for instance). But most are scared of the immediate threat of the Primary over the more abstract threat of the voters kicking you out.
    I think the idea would be that it is high time to rise above such fears and go down fighting for your country.

    I can see a flaw here though...
  • CollegeCollege Posts: 63
    Scott_xP said:

    @SpencerHakimian

    Boeing is trading down -3.5% this morning while Airbus is trading up +0.5% this morning on the news that China will not be buying from Boeing anymore.

    The tariffs are turning out to be a historic punishment on the American people and a historic opportunity for non-American companies.

    The definition of stupidity is doing something that hurts you and helps others.

    https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/1912126455871320509

    It sounds as though Spencer Hakimian may have read Carlo Cipolla's book The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity. Highly recommended!
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,158
    College said:

    ydoethur said:

    College said:


    In today's thrilling action on Political Betting com, board member Sunil_Prasannan reminded the board that board member Leon had referred to the Kazakh capital as Astana, the name by which it stopped being known in 2022, but board member BlancheLivermore was quick to point out that in fact board member Leon had referred to it under its current name of Nur-Sultan as recently as (Continued on Page 903.)

    Er - other way around. It was called Nur-Sultan from 2019-22 but then reverted to Astana.
    OMG I am sorry!
    We also know that the Kazakh pro cycling team are called XDS Astana.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,396

    Bill Kristol
    @BillKristol
    ·
    16h
    A handful of R senators and House members could announce: They're caucusing with the Dems for now and will vote for Schumer for Majority Leader and Jeffries for Speaker. And they'll do this in order to work with Democrats to construct guardrails against dictatorship.

    https://x.com/BillKristol/status/1911938619884843486

    Could, but will they?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,129
    edited April 15

    Western car companies are so f##ked,

    ‘The EV that does everything’ complete with 10 minute charging and 825 km range
    https://electrek.co/2025/04/15/zeekr-unveils-7gt-as-the-ev-that-does-everything-complete-with-10-minute-charging-and-825-km-range/

    For £20k

    Maybe western car makers should buy the rights to the tech, build under licence and rebadge - even redesign exteriors and/or interiors.

    If you think how the e-tron and Taycan are basically the same car underneath, tweaked to target market then no reason why not.

    If you are Citroen why not rebadge the Zeekr as the Citroen DS and sell loads in Europe to people who don’t want a “Chinese” car.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,446

    ‪Aaron Rupar‬ ‪@atrupar.com‬
    ·
    14m
    Trump to Fox on deporting Americans to a gulag in El Salvador: "We want to do it. I would love to do that."

    https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,521
    rcs1000 said:

    LilaZ said:

    Leon said:

    Have we finally found the one thing that unites all of PB? All of us love big old trees and hate to see them hacked down for no reason? Or is there still some dark-hearted PB Scot Nat that likes the idea of dead English oaks?

    I can't abide a tree.
    I hate trees. Nasty, suspicious things. Always poking their branches in where they're not wanted. Undermining buildings, and roads, and pavements. Causing accidents due to being placed alongside roads where poor unsuspecting motorists and cyclists least expect to see them. Shedding trash for a month a year, that clogs up drains.
    Stealing our CO2.
  • CollegeCollege Posts: 63
    edited April 15
    slade said:

    College said:

    ydoethur said:

    College said:


    In today's thrilling action on Political Betting com, board member Sunil_Prasannan reminded the board that board member Leon had referred to the Kazakh capital as Astana, the name by which it stopped being known in 2022, but board member BlancheLivermore was quick to point out that in fact board member Leon had referred to it under its current name of Nur-Sultan as recently as (Continued on Page 903.)

    Er - other way around. It was called Nur-Sultan from 2019-22 but then reverted to Astana.
    OMG I am sorry!
    We also know that the Kazakh pro cycling team are called XDS Astana.
    I only like the Colombian women's cycling team.
    And I would do even if they called themselves XDS Santa Fé de Bogotá.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,719


    ‪Aaron Rupar‬ ‪@atrupar.com‬
    ·
    14m
    Trump to Fox on deporting Americans to a gulag in El Salvador: "We want to do it. I would love to do that."

    https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com

    Bet Lozza was lapping that up.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,204
    Scott_xP said:

    *OPENAI BUILDING A X-LIKE SOCIAL NETWORK: VERGE
    *OPENAI SOCIAL NETWORK IN EARLY STAGES: VERGE

    Musk is going to completely lose his shit

    If you liked Musk, you'll love Sam Altman
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,290
    slade said:

    College said:

    ydoethur said:

    College said:


    In today's thrilling action on Political Betting com, board member Sunil_Prasannan reminded the board that board member Leon had referred to the Kazakh capital as Astana, the name by which it stopped being known in 2022, but board member BlancheLivermore was quick to point out that in fact board member Leon had referred to it under its current name of Nur-Sultan as recently as (Continued on Page 903.)

    Er - other way around. It was called Nur-Sultan from 2019-22 but then reverted to Astana.
    OMG I am sorry!
    We also know that the Kazakh pro cycling team are called XDS Astana.
    You may know that - I had neither heard of them nor care.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,319
    AnneJGP said:

    Bill Kristol
    @BillKristol
    ·
    16h
    A handful of R senators and House members could announce: They're caucusing with the Dems for now and will vote for Schumer for Majority Leader and Jeffries for Speaker. And they'll do this in order to work with Democrats to construct guardrails against dictatorship.

    https://x.com/BillKristol/status/1911938619884843486

    Could, but will they?
    Unfortunately, @rcs1000 is right; the cost to any Republicans who do that will likely be huge. It's perfectly rational for them to look round nervously and hope that someone else does the necessary.

    Yes, it's cowardly, but most of us are. Given a choice of almost certainly getting into hot water now compared with very probably going to Hell in the future, most people look the other way. It's why evil thrives for so long.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,563


    ‪Aaron Rupar‬ ‪@atrupar.com‬
    ·
    14m
    Trump to Fox on deporting Americans to a gulag in El Salvador: "We want to do it. I would love to do that."

    https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com

    I wonder how long before Biden is locked up in El Salvador.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,654
    edited April 15
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Talking of Truss, I caught up with an old University chum for the first time in nearly 30 years on Sunday. He editor of the Oxford Student (OUSU funded rival of Cherwell) and told me of some of the lickspittle surrounding Truss when we were there (we were in the same year as her). I vaguely remembered some of the stories from the time but didn't associate them with her until he reminded me. For once in his existence it appears Leon might be right about something.

    lol

    It always ends up here

    "So it turns out Leon was right about something"

    Lab Leak, Covid, THING, China, THING, Nordstream, Biden's decline, on and on
    Except you've been conclusively proven wrong about Nordstream: it was the Ukrainians, as the NY Times (and other) have documented.
    I always said it would be the US, but using a proxy to provide plausible deniability

    The idea that the Ukes did this by themselves without asking for Biden’s permission (and surely some tactical help) is ludicrous
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,204
    AnneJGP said:

    Bill Kristol
    @BillKristol
    ·
    16h
    A handful of R senators and House members could announce: They're caucusing with the Dems for now and will vote for Schumer for Majority Leader and Jeffries for Speaker. And they'll do this in order to work with Democrats to construct guardrails against dictatorship.

    https://x.com/BillKristol/status/1911938619884843486

    Could, but will they?
    I *could* win next week's euromillions too
  • CollegeCollege Posts: 63
    edited April 15
    Scott_xP said:

    *OPENAI BUILDING A X-LIKE SOCIAL NETWORK: VERGE
    *OPENAI SOCIAL NETWORK IN EARLY STAGES: VERGE

    Musk is going to completely lose his shit

    AIX - the micromessaging service where contributors only need type two characters and then a computer program fills in the rest of their tweet for them, taking account of their desired amount of snark, their level of interest, the moon phase, etc...

    ...to be superseded before 2030 by China's Brain Computer Interface AIX where they don't even have to type.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,563
    I don’t suppose this beer will be available in Toby Carveries.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,521
    Remember that deal which Trump blew up last time he was in office ?

    On Fox News, Steve Witkoff suggests the US does not seek a dismantlement of Iran's nuclear program, but suggests a focus on "verification," including on Iran's missile program, something Iran has previously written off as non-negotiable.
    https://x.com/FaytuksNetwork/status/1911968104697024555
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,559
    ydoethur said:

    College said:


    In today's thrilling action on Political Betting com, board member Sunil_Prasannan reminded the board that board member Leon had referred to the Kazakh capital as Astana, the name by which it stopped being known in 2022, but board member BlancheLivermore was quick to point out that in fact board member Leon had referred to it under its current name of Nur-Sultan as recently as (Continued on Page 903.)

    Er - other way around. It was called Nur-Sultan from 2019-22 but then reverted to Astana.
    Founded as Akmoly, 1830
    then:
    Akmolinsk, 1832
    Tselinograd, 1961
    Akmola, 1991
    Astana, 1998
    Nur-Sultan, 2019
    Astana, 2022

  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,654
    edited April 15

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Talking of Truss, I caught up with an old University chum for the first time in nearly 30 years on Sunday. He editor of the Oxford Student (OUSU funded rival of Cherwell) and told me of some of the lickspittle surrounding Truss when we were there (we were in the same year as her). I vaguely remembered some of the stories from the time but didn't associate them with her until he reminded me. For once in his existence it appears Leon might be right about something.

    lol

    It always ends up here

    "So it turns out Leon was right about something"

    Lab Leak, Covid, THING, China, THING, Nordstream, Biden's decline, on and on
    You told us the other day the capital of Kazakhstan is still called Nur-Sultan! It reverted to Astana in 2022.
    It's clear that you think you have a point here

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5177349/#Comment_5177349
    I do indeed!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astana

    Initially founded as Akmoly in 1830, the city was later renamed Akmolinsk, Tselinograd, and Akmola before adopting the name Astana in 1998, which means "capital city" in Kazakh.[15] In 2019, the city briefly adopted the name Nur-Sultan in honor of former president Nursultan Nazarbayev, but it returned to the name Astana in 2022.
    Leon called it Astana in the comment I just posted

    Leon called it Nur-Sultan in this comment on Sunday 8.18pm:

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5176716/#Comment_5176716
    On the other fucking hand, I am actually here in Astana nee Nur Sultan nee Astana, and I can report that tho it is has officially changed its name BACK to Astana, very many people still call it Nur Sultan; after Nur Sultan Nazarbayev, who founded it

    Here is my hand FILLING the golden handshape of Nur Sultan Nazarbayev, which is in the golden globe at the top of the tower that looms over his surreal steppe land Singapore: Nur Sultan Astana




  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,148
    College said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @SpencerHakimian

    Boeing is trading down -3.5% this morning while Airbus is trading up +0.5% this morning on the news that China will not be buying from Boeing anymore.

    The tariffs are turning out to be a historic punishment on the American people and a historic opportunity for non-American companies.

    The definition of stupidity is doing something that hurts you and helps others.

    https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/1912126455871320509

    It sounds as though Spencer Hakimian may have read Carlo Cipolla's book The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity. Highly recommended!
    I hadn't run across it so thanks.

    A concise summary here

    https://youtu.be/OIqd8ABi6YA?si=LeIjwuMZDzzgPV7x
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,636
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    LilaZ said:

    Leon said:

    Have we finally found the one thing that unites all of PB? All of us love big old trees and hate to see them hacked down for no reason? Or is there still some dark-hearted PB Scot Nat that likes the idea of dead English oaks?

    I can't abide a tree.
    I hate trees. Nasty, suspicious things. Always poking their branches in where they're not wanted. Undermining buildings, and roads, and pavements. Causing accidents due to being placed alongside roads where poor unsuspecting motorists and cyclists least expect to see them. Shedding trash for a month a year, that clogs up drains.
    Stealing our CO2.
    What have the trees ever done for us?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,459
    vik said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the previous thread there was a discussion about Covid vaccines, and their danger, etc.

    And the funny bit is that I got involved in a "discussion" on this very issue on Substack only the other day. Someone claimed that Covid vaccines killed many times more people than the virus.

    Now, there is a basic statistical point that it is entirely possible for Covid vaccines to kill more people than Covid, and yet for them still to be a net positive for mortality.

    But I didn't want to go down that rabbit hole.

    Instead, I posed the following question: If Covid vaccines killed many more people than the virus could, then any country that was isolated from the virus due to geography, but which had mass Covid vaccinations must have had much worse excess deaths than one that experienced the virus.

    It is simply not possible for a country which did not get the virus, but did vaccinate everyone to have better outcomes, if the vaccine caused more death than the virus.

    So how come Australia and New Zealand - which both have close to 100% Covid vaccination rates, but which never experienced Covid, due to closure of their borders - had no excess deaths in 2020 or 2021 at all?

    There is a very well established connection between covid vaccinations and myocarditis, but there is also a much more common connection between covid infection and myocarditis, and more severe too.

    Indeed it wouldn't surprise me if the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular complications of covid infection are bigger killers now than respiratory complications. There's an increased risk of vascular events for about 6 months after infection.
    Australia and New Zealand probably initially escaped the worst (prior immunity to coronoviruses may have played a part too) due to their ridiculous border closure policies but that led to other disastrous economic and social problems..They still ended up with plenty of excess deaths in 2022/3 too..
    Yes, those incredibly unpopular border closures with - checks - massive public support.
    The claim that Australia has "disastrous economic and social problems" is also total rubbish.

    Australia has problems with inflation, but so has every other developed country. Otherwise, the country is perfectly fine.

    Also it's worth noting that our Right-wing lunatics (One Nation Party) struggle to reach 10% in polls, and are currently around 8% in the polling averages.
    Good to see an Aussie poster. The rubbish you pass off for cricketing endeavour doesn't have to stain your nation after all :)



  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,204
    Just had the reform candidate come round leafletting, looked slightly older than her leaflet picture - which is a positive tbh. Might consider voting for her..
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,283
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On the previous thread there was a discussion about Covid vaccines, and their danger, etc.

    And the funny bit is that I got involved in a "discussion" on this very issue on Substack only the other day. Someone claimed that Covid vaccines killed many times more people than the virus.

    Now, there is a basic statistical point that it is entirely possible for Covid vaccines to kill more people than Covid, and yet for them still to be a net positive for mortality.

    But I didn't want to go down that rabbit hole.

    Instead, I posed the following question: If Covid vaccines killed many more people than the virus could, then any country that was isolated from the virus due to geography, but which had mass Covid vaccinations must have had much worse excess deaths than one that experienced the virus.

    It is simply not possible for a country which did not get the virus, but did vaccinate everyone to have better outcomes, if the vaccine caused more death than the virus.

    So how come Australia and New Zealand - which both have close to 100% Covid vaccination rates, but which never experienced Covid, due to closure of their borders - had no excess deaths in 2020 or 2021 at all?

    There is a very well established connection between covid vaccinations and myocarditis, but there is also a much more common connection between covid infection and myocarditis, and more severe too.

    Indeed it wouldn't surprise me if the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular complications of covid infection are bigger killers now than respiratory complications. There's an increased risk of vascular events for about 6 months after infection.
    Should I be cautious about getting back into my cycling once Covid departs? (Especially the bits where my heart rate ends up in the 170s because I'm going up a 12% incline)
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,459

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    LilaZ said:

    Leon said:

    Have we finally found the one thing that unites all of PB? All of us love big old trees and hate to see them hacked down for no reason? Or is there still some dark-hearted PB Scot Nat that likes the idea of dead English oaks?

    I can't abide a tree.
    I hate trees. Nasty, suspicious things. Always poking their branches in where they're not wanted. Undermining buildings, and roads, and pavements. Causing accidents due to being placed alongside roads where poor unsuspecting motorists and cyclists least expect to see them. Shedding trash for a month a year, that clogs up drains.
    Stealing our CO2.
    What have the trees ever done for us?
    Leaf it alone.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,559
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Talking of Truss, I caught up with an old University chum for the first time in nearly 30 years on Sunday. He editor of the Oxford Student (OUSU funded rival of Cherwell) and told me of some of the lickspittle surrounding Truss when we were there (we were in the same year as her). I vaguely remembered some of the stories from the time but didn't associate them with her until he reminded me. For once in his existence it appears Leon might be right about something.

    lol

    It always ends up here

    "So it turns out Leon was right about something"

    Lab Leak, Covid, THING, China, THING, Nordstream, Biden's decline, on and on
    You told us the other day the capital of Kazakhstan is still called Nur-Sultan! It reverted to Astana in 2022.
    It's clear that you think you have a point here

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5177349/#Comment_5177349
    I do indeed!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astana

    Initially founded as Akmoly in 1830, the city was later renamed Akmolinsk, Tselinograd, and Akmola before adopting the name Astana in 1998, which means "capital city" in Kazakh.[15] In 2019, the city briefly adopted the name Nur-Sultan in honor of former president Nursultan Nazarbayev, but it returned to the name Astana in 2022.
    Leon called it Astana in the comment I just posted

    Leon called it Nur-Sultan in this comment on Sunday 8.18pm:

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5176716/#Comment_5176716
    On the other fucking hand, I am actually here in Astana nee Nur Sultan nee Astana, and I can report that tho it is has officially changed its name BACK to Astana, very many people still call it Nur Sultan; after Nur Sultan Azarbeyev, who founded it

    Here is my hand FILLING the golden handshake of Nur Sultan Nazarbayev, which is in the golden globe at the top of the tower that looms over his surreal steppe land Singapore: Nur Sultan Astana




    If you did your research, the city is actually "nee" Akmoly.

    Founded as Akmoly, 1830
    then:
    Akmolinsk, 1832
    Tselinograd, 1961
    Akmola, 1991
    Astana, 1998
    Nur-Sultan, 2019
    Astana, 2022

    Nur-Sultan is actually the second briefest name (3 years). Only the original name, Akmoly, lasted a shorter period of time (2 years).
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,764
    edited April 15
    Did nobody comment that yet again the economic news in the UK is positive? Strange.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,283
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:


    ‪Glen O'Hara‬ ‪@gsoh31.bsky.social‬
    ·
    41s
    A thousand US student visa terminations. No-one's going to study there then.

    https://bsky.app/profile/gsoh31.bsky.social/post/3lmuey6bflc2f



    How big is Harvard's endowment fund? There are going to need it...

    The humiliation of haughty, arrogant, uberWoke Harvard will be quite enjoyable, however
    Only if you don't care whether the US remains a free and democratic society.
    Leon apparently wants the same in the UK - unless he was just shitposting last night ?
    I certainly wasn't shitposting, and I certainly don't want the whole Trump lunatic agenda in the UK, the tariffs are mad, the Putin-loving foreign policy is all over the place...

    But the forceful extermination of Woke, DEI, cultural Marxism? The rigorous moves against fake asylum claims, against mass migration, against leftist lawfare, against activist judges, against those who are conspiring to destroy the West? - and I am afraid I cannot think of a better descrption - yes. I want all that
    Except, of course, by doing it in the way he's doing it, he's going to end up entrenching DEI.

    Oppositionialism.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,574
    vik said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    DougSeal said:


    ‪Glen O'Hara‬ ‪@gsoh31.bsky.social‬
    ·
    41s
    A thousand US student visa terminations. No-one's going to study there then.

    https://bsky.app/profile/gsoh31.bsky.social/post/3lmuey6bflc2f



    How big is Harvard's endowment fund? There are going to need it...

    $53.2 billion as of June 30 last year

    https://www.hmc.harvard.edu/partners-performance/
    That will deliver something like 2-2.5% on a recurring basis to be taken out, whilst the capital also increases by inflation each year - I think that is the normal guideline.

    So $1.5bn or thereabouts.

    How much research funding is Trump threatening to stop if they won't follow his predilections?

    For Columbia University, iirc he was threatening $400m per annum, which was essentially as much as their endowment income.
    About $2 billion, according to the Beeb;

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz01y9gkdm3o

    Whether that's per year, or in total, doesn't seem clear from the reporting. Seriously difficult to manage, but probably not impossible. I suspect Harvard will still be doing what it does as smugly as ever when Trump and Vance are only appearing in "a warning from history" documentaries.
    If Trump just stops it, that's a $2bn hole in the accounts - even if temporary. And the endowment income will be committed already. Presumably they can liquidate some assets - but it's a big hit.
    The news reports say that the $2bn is for "multi-year grants", but don't specify the exact number of years. Both sides have an interest in magnifying the amounts involved, and the actual amounts per year might be a lot less than than $2bn.

    I think a future Democratic administration would also be happy to return all the frozen funds back to Harvard, so the hit would only be temporary.
    Yes - but that requires Harvard to cover it all in the interim.

    TBF arguably they are in a position to do so, of all the Universities under threat.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,204
    MattW said:

    vik said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    DougSeal said:


    ‪Glen O'Hara‬ ‪@gsoh31.bsky.social‬
    ·
    41s
    A thousand US student visa terminations. No-one's going to study there then.

    https://bsky.app/profile/gsoh31.bsky.social/post/3lmuey6bflc2f



    How big is Harvard's endowment fund? There are going to need it...

    $53.2 billion as of June 30 last year

    https://www.hmc.harvard.edu/partners-performance/
    That will deliver something like 2-2.5% on a recurring basis to be taken out, whilst the capital also increases by inflation each year - I think that is the normal guideline.

    So $1.5bn or thereabouts.

    How much research funding is Trump threatening to stop if they won't follow his predilections?

    For Columbia University, iirc he was threatening $400m per annum, which was essentially as much as their endowment income.
    About $2 billion, according to the Beeb;

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz01y9gkdm3o

    Whether that's per year, or in total, doesn't seem clear from the reporting. Seriously difficult to manage, but probably not impossible. I suspect Harvard will still be doing what it does as smugly as ever when Trump and Vance are only appearing in "a warning from history" documentaries.
    If Trump just stops it, that's a $2bn hole in the accounts - even if temporary. And the endowment income will be committed already. Presumably they can liquidate some assets - but it's a big hit.
    The news reports say that the $2bn is for "multi-year grants", but don't specify the exact number of years. Both sides have an interest in magnifying the amounts involved, and the actual amounts per year might be a lot less than than $2bn.

    I think a future Democratic administration would also be happy to return all the frozen funds back to Harvard, so the hit would only be temporary.
    Yes - but that requires Harvard to cover it all in the interim.

    TBF arguably they are in a position to do so, of all the Universities under threat.
    Soros can always get his chequebook out
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,283
    vik said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    DougSeal said:


    ‪Glen O'Hara‬ ‪@gsoh31.bsky.social‬
    ·
    41s
    A thousand US student visa terminations. No-one's going to study there then.

    https://bsky.app/profile/gsoh31.bsky.social/post/3lmuey6bflc2f



    How big is Harvard's endowment fund? There are going to need it...

    $53.2 billion as of June 30 last year

    https://www.hmc.harvard.edu/partners-performance/
    That will deliver something like 2-2.5% on a recurring basis to be taken out, whilst the capital also increases by inflation each year - I think that is the normal guideline.

    So $1.5bn or thereabouts.

    How much research funding is Trump threatening to stop if they won't follow his predilections?

    For Columbia University, iirc he was threatening $400m per annum, which was essentially as much as their endowment income.
    About $2 billion, according to the Beeb;

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz01y9gkdm3o

    Whether that's per year, or in total, doesn't seem clear from the reporting. Seriously difficult to manage, but probably not impossible. I suspect Harvard will still be doing what it does as smugly as ever when Trump and Vance are only appearing in "a warning from history" documentaries.
    If Trump just stops it, that's a $2bn hole in the accounts - even if temporary. And the endowment income will be committed already. Presumably they can liquidate some assets - but it's a big hit.
    The news reports say that the $2bn is for "multi-year grants", but don't specify the exact number of years. Both sides have an interest in magnifying the amounts involved, and the actual amounts per year might be a lot less than than $2bn.

    I think a future Democratic administration would also be happy to return all the frozen funds back to Harvard, so the hit would only be temporary.
    Which is why Harvard has suggested just issuing bonds, and carrying on as normal.
  • (Post 2/5)

    The Red Wall polling suggests Farage is a very big limiter on their support. This should worry Reform as this near their peak IMHO.

    Labour gets a new leader by 2029 and the economy is looking good, they get re-elected. Call me stupid.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,574
    A fascinating article about how Russian diplomacy works:

    https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/04/14/i-trained-with-russian-diplomats-i-can-tell-you-how-they-work-a88722

    Every course, no matter the topic, bowed to the same deities of geopolitical realism. We were soaked in realpolitik as if the Cold War had never ended and trained to act accordingly.

    People often ask me why Russian diplomats are so hard to deal with. My answer as an insider of this system is simple: to understand Russian diplomacy, you need to understand how Russian diplomats are made. And that means understanding MGIMO. It is the Hogwarts of the Russian foreign policy elite, the place where the worldview of Russian diplomats is shaped, hammered in and sealed.

    Unlike the West, where diplomats are usually brought up on liberal institutionalism — the idea that diplomacy is about cooperation — MGIMO teaches the opposite: offensive realism. Not the nuanced academic kind, but its hardened, ossified version where power is truth, might makes right and "spheres of influence" are gospel.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,283
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Talking of Truss, I caught up with an old University chum for the first time in nearly 30 years on Sunday. He editor of the Oxford Student (OUSU funded rival of Cherwell) and told me of some of the lickspittle surrounding Truss when we were there (we were in the same year as her). I vaguely remembered some of the stories from the time but didn't associate them with her until he reminded me. For once in his existence it appears Leon might be right about something.

    lol

    It always ends up here

    "So it turns out Leon was right about something"

    Lab Leak, Covid, THING, China, THING, Nordstream, Biden's decline, on and on
    Except you've been conclusively proven wrong about Nordstream: it was the Ukrainians, as the NY Times (and other) have documented.
    I always said it would be the US, but using a proxy to provide plausible deniability

    The idea that the Ukes did this by themselves without asking for Biden’s permission (and surely some tactical help) is ludicrous
    So, what you're saying is that there's no actual evidence that the US is involved? (Other than your gut feeling.)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,290
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Talking of Truss, I caught up with an old University chum for the first time in nearly 30 years on Sunday. He editor of the Oxford Student (OUSU funded rival of Cherwell) and told me of some of the lickspittle surrounding Truss when we were there (we were in the same year as her). I vaguely remembered some of the stories from the time but didn't associate them with her until he reminded me. For once in his existence it appears Leon might be right about something.

    lol

    It always ends up here

    "So it turns out Leon was right about something"

    Lab Leak, Covid, THING, China, THING, Nordstream, Biden's decline, on and on
    You told us the other day the capital of Kazakhstan is still called Nur-Sultan! It reverted to Astana in 2022.
    It's clear that you think you have a point here

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5177349/#Comment_5177349
    I do indeed!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astana

    Initially founded as Akmoly in 1830, the city was later renamed Akmolinsk, Tselinograd, and Akmola before adopting the name Astana in 1998, which means "capital city" in Kazakh.[15] In 2019, the city briefly adopted the name Nur-Sultan in honor of former president Nursultan Nazarbayev, but it returned to the name Astana in 2022.
    Leon called it Astana in the comment I just posted

    Leon called it Nur-Sultan in this comment on Sunday 8.18pm:

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5176716/#Comment_5176716
    On the other fucking hand, I am actually here in Astana nee Nur Sultan nee Astana, and I can report that tho it is has officially changed its name BACK to Astana, very many people still call it Nur Sultan; after Nur Sultan Nazarbayev, who founded it

    Here is my hand FILLING the golden handshape of Nur Sultan Nazarbayev, which is in the golden globe at the top of the tower that looms over his surreal steppe land Singapore: Nur Sultan Astana




    Tiny fingers bro. Never mind, eh.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,654

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Talking of Truss, I caught up with an old University chum for the first time in nearly 30 years on Sunday. He editor of the Oxford Student (OUSU funded rival of Cherwell) and told me of some of the lickspittle surrounding Truss when we were there (we were in the same year as her). I vaguely remembered some of the stories from the time but didn't associate them with her until he reminded me. For once in his existence it appears Leon might be right about something.

    lol

    It always ends up here

    "So it turns out Leon was right about something"

    Lab Leak, Covid, THING, China, THING, Nordstream, Biden's decline, on and on
    You told us the other day the capital of Kazakhstan is still called Nur-Sultan! It reverted to Astana in 2022.
    It's clear that you think you have a point here

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5177349/#Comment_5177349
    I do indeed!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astana

    Initially founded as Akmoly in 1830, the city was later renamed Akmolinsk, Tselinograd, and Akmola before adopting the name Astana in 1998, which means "capital city" in Kazakh.[15] In 2019, the city briefly adopted the name Nur-Sultan in honor of former president Nursultan Nazarbayev, but it returned to the name Astana in 2022.
    Leon called it Astana in the comment I just posted

    Leon called it Nur-Sultan in this comment on Sunday 8.18pm:

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5176716/#Comment_5176716
    On the other fucking hand, I am actually here in Astana nee Nur Sultan nee Astana, and I can report that tho it is has officially changed its name BACK to Astana, very many people still call it Nur Sultan; after Nur Sultan Azarbeyev, who founded it

    Here is my hand FILLING the golden handshake of Nur Sultan Nazarbayev, which is in the golden globe at the top of the tower that looms over his surreal steppe land Singapore: Nur Sultan Astana




    If you did your research, the city is actually "nee" Akmoly.

    Founded as Akmoly, 1830
    then:
    Akmolinsk, 1832
    Tselinograd, 1961
    Akmola, 1991
    Astana, 1998
    Nur-Sultan, 2019
    Astana, 2022

    Nur-Sultan is actually the second briefest name (3 years). Only the original name, Akmoly, lasted a shorter period of time (2 years).
    Mate, I’m here

    THE LOCALS STILL CALL IT NUR SULTAN

    No idea why. Tho they do seem to revere him - old Nazarbayev - there were long queues to put your hand in his golden hand. And he did successfully steer Kazakhstan out of the USSR into a reasonably prosperous independence, and the country looks OK, with lots of babies and no litter

    I encountered the same in Yangon, where a LOT of people, especially the young, were calling it “Rangoon”. However I suspect this was and is a quiet act of defiance against a hated regime (unlike KZ)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,559
    rcs1000 said:

    vik said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    DougSeal said:


    ‪Glen O'Hara‬ ‪@gsoh31.bsky.social‬
    ·
    41s
    A thousand US student visa terminations. No-one's going to study there then.

    https://bsky.app/profile/gsoh31.bsky.social/post/3lmuey6bflc2f



    How big is Harvard's endowment fund? There are going to need it...

    $53.2 billion as of June 30 last year

    https://www.hmc.harvard.edu/partners-performance/
    That will deliver something like 2-2.5% on a recurring basis to be taken out, whilst the capital also increases by inflation each year - I think that is the normal guideline.

    So $1.5bn or thereabouts.

    How much research funding is Trump threatening to stop if they won't follow his predilections?

    For Columbia University, iirc he was threatening $400m per annum, which was essentially as much as their endowment income.
    About $2 billion, according to the Beeb;

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz01y9gkdm3o

    Whether that's per year, or in total, doesn't seem clear from the reporting. Seriously difficult to manage, but probably not impossible. I suspect Harvard will still be doing what it does as smugly as ever when Trump and Vance are only appearing in "a warning from history" documentaries.
    If Trump just stops it, that's a $2bn hole in the accounts - even if temporary. And the endowment income will be committed already. Presumably they can liquidate some assets - but it's a big hit.
    The news reports say that the $2bn is for "multi-year grants", but don't specify the exact number of years. Both sides have an interest in magnifying the amounts involved, and the actual amounts per year might be a lot less than than $2bn.

    I think a future Democratic administration would also be happy to return all the frozen funds back to Harvard, so the hit would only be temporary.
    Which is why Harvard has suggested just issuing bonds, and carrying on as normal.
    Interestingly, I wandered along the South Bank last Monday, starting at Blackfriars station, and ended up at Southwark Cathedral. Inside the cathedral is a little chapel commemorating one John Harvard, born in 1607, and baptised in the cathedral's predecessor on the same site, St Saviour's Church:


  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,595

    Did nobody comment that yet again the economic news in the UK is positive? Strange.

    What news? A quick scan of the BBC shows nothing on the economy and the only story I heard earlier was about fewer job vacancies.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,654
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:


    ‪Glen O'Hara‬ ‪@gsoh31.bsky.social‬
    ·
    41s
    A thousand US student visa terminations. No-one's going to study there then.

    https://bsky.app/profile/gsoh31.bsky.social/post/3lmuey6bflc2f



    How big is Harvard's endowment fund? There are going to need it...

    The humiliation of haughty, arrogant, uberWoke Harvard will be quite enjoyable, however
    Only if you don't care whether the US remains a free and democratic society.
    Leon apparently wants the same in the UK - unless he was just shitposting last night ?
    I certainly wasn't shitposting, and I certainly don't want the whole Trump lunatic agenda in the UK, the tariffs are mad, the Putin-loving foreign policy is all over the place...

    But the forceful extermination of Woke, DEI, cultural Marxism? The rigorous moves against fake asylum claims, against mass migration, against leftist lawfare, against activist judges, against those who are conspiring to destroy the West? - and I am afraid I cannot think of a better descrption - yes. I want all that
    Except, of course, by doing it in the way he's doing it, he's going to end up entrenching DEI.

    Oppositionialism.
    Yes, his horrific economic and foreign policy howlers are fucking up the good stuff he’s doing with Woke
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,290

    Did nobody comment that yet again the economic news in the UK is positive? Strange.

    Link?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,595

    (Post 2/5)

    The Red Wall polling suggests Farage is a very big limiter on their support. This should worry Reform as this near their peak IMHO.

    Labour gets a new leader by 2029 and the economy is looking good, they get re-elected. Call me stupid.

    Why would they need a new leader. Starmer is in excellent health and has no need to go.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,290

    rcs1000 said:

    vik said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    DougSeal said:


    ‪Glen O'Hara‬ ‪@gsoh31.bsky.social‬
    ·
    41s
    A thousand US student visa terminations. No-one's going to study there then.

    https://bsky.app/profile/gsoh31.bsky.social/post/3lmuey6bflc2f



    How big is Harvard's endowment fund? There are going to need it...

    $53.2 billion as of June 30 last year

    https://www.hmc.harvard.edu/partners-performance/
    That will deliver something like 2-2.5% on a recurring basis to be taken out, whilst the capital also increases by inflation each year - I think that is the normal guideline.

    So $1.5bn or thereabouts.

    How much research funding is Trump threatening to stop if they won't follow his predilections?

    For Columbia University, iirc he was threatening $400m per annum, which was essentially as much as their endowment income.
    About $2 billion, according to the Beeb;

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz01y9gkdm3o

    Whether that's per year, or in total, doesn't seem clear from the reporting. Seriously difficult to manage, but probably not impossible. I suspect Harvard will still be doing what it does as smugly as ever when Trump and Vance are only appearing in "a warning from history" documentaries.
    If Trump just stops it, that's a $2bn hole in the accounts - even if temporary. And the endowment income will be committed already. Presumably they can liquidate some assets - but it's a big hit.
    The news reports say that the $2bn is for "multi-year grants", but don't specify the exact number of years. Both sides have an interest in magnifying the amounts involved, and the actual amounts per year might be a lot less than than $2bn.

    I think a future Democratic administration would also be happy to return all the frozen funds back to Harvard, so the hit would only be temporary.
    Which is why Harvard has suggested just issuing bonds, and carrying on as normal.
    Interestingly, I wandered along the South Bank last Monday, starting at Blackfriars station, and ended up at Southwark Cathedral. Inside the cathedral is a little chapel commemorating one John Harvard, born in 1607, and baptised in the cathedral's predecessor on the same site, St Saviour's Church:


    Autocorrect seems to have made up your first word Sunil, just saying.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,559

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Talking of Truss, I caught up with an old University chum for the first time in nearly 30 years on Sunday. He editor of the Oxford Student (OUSU funded rival of Cherwell) and told me of some of the lickspittle surrounding Truss when we were there (we were in the same year as her). I vaguely remembered some of the stories from the time but didn't associate them with her until he reminded me. For once in his existence it appears Leon might be right about something.

    lol

    It always ends up here

    "So it turns out Leon was right about something"

    Lab Leak, Covid, THING, China, THING, Nordstream, Biden's decline, on and on
    You told us the other day the capital of Kazakhstan is still called Nur-Sultan! It reverted to Astana in 2022.
    It's clear that you think you have a point here

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5177349/#Comment_5177349
    I do indeed!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astana

    Initially founded as Akmoly in 1830, the city was later renamed Akmolinsk, Tselinograd, and Akmola before adopting the name Astana in 1998, which means "capital city" in Kazakh.[15] In 2019, the city briefly adopted the name Nur-Sultan in honor of former president Nursultan Nazarbayev, but it returned to the name Astana in 2022.
    Leon called it Astana in the comment I just posted

    Leon called it Nur-Sultan in this comment on Sunday 8.18pm:

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5176716/#Comment_5176716
    On the other fucking hand, I am actually here in Astana nee Nur Sultan nee Astana, and I can report that tho it is has officially changed its name BACK to Astana, very many people still call it Nur Sultan; after Nur Sultan Nazarbayev, who founded it

    Here is my hand FILLING the golden handshape of Nur Sultan Nazarbayev, which is in the golden globe at the top of the tower that looms over his surreal steppe land Singapore: Nur Sultan Astana




    Tiny fingers bro. Never mind, eh.
    Starting the reactor to give Mars an atmosphere?
    "See you at the party, Richter Leon!"
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,574
    edited April 15
    rcs1000 said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    DougSeal said:


    ‪Glen O'Hara‬ ‪@gsoh31.bsky.social‬
    ·
    41s
    A thousand US student visa terminations. No-one's going to study there then.

    https://bsky.app/profile/gsoh31.bsky.social/post/3lmuey6bflc2f



    How big is Harvard's endowment fund? There are going to need it...

    $53.2 billion as of June 30 last year

    https://www.hmc.harvard.edu/partners-performance/
    That will deliver something like 2-2.5% on a recurring basis to be taken out, whilst the capital also increases by inflation each year - I think that is the normal guideline.

    So $1.5bn or thereabouts.

    How much research funding is Trump threatening to stop if they won't follow his predilections?

    For Columbia University, iirc he was threatening $400m per annum, which was essentially as much as their endowment income.
    About $2 billion, according to the Beeb;

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz01y9gkdm3o

    Whether that's per year, or in total, doesn't seem clear from the reporting. Seriously difficult to manage, but probably not impossible. I suspect Harvard will still be doing what it does as smugly as ever when Trump and Vance are only appearing in "a warning from history" documentaries.
    If Trump just stops it, that's a $2bn hole in the accounts - even if temporary. And the endowment income will be committed already. Presumably they can liquidate some assets - but it's a big hit.
    It is a big hit: there will be a significant negative impact on financial support for poorer students, fees will probably have to rise (from their already insane levels), and there will be cutbacks in terms of teaching, research, and the like.

    Basically: belts will need to be tightened, no matter how large the endowment.

    On the other hand, Harvard's endowment and fee income is so large, that I'm sure it can stick two fingers up at the government.

    An interesting question is the extent to which States step up and support institutions. Could Massachusetts offer additional help for poorer students going to Harvard, for example? Or could a group of Democratic states combine and offer funding grants for research into climate change?
    I linked to a Fiona Hill 10 minute segment on the impact of Trump on the US Education / Tech Research sector a month or so ago.

    Her verdict: "They are killing the golden goose."

    Deep Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MdgvrK3zyWU&t=2401s
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,654
    edited April 15
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Talking of Truss, I caught up with an old University chum for the first time in nearly 30 years on Sunday. He editor of the Oxford Student (OUSU funded rival of Cherwell) and told me of some of the lickspittle surrounding Truss when we were there (we were in the same year as her). I vaguely remembered some of the stories from the time but didn't associate them with her until he reminded me. For once in his existence it appears Leon might be right about something.

    lol

    It always ends up here

    "So it turns out Leon was right about something"

    Lab Leak, Covid, THING, China, THING, Nordstream, Biden's decline, on and on
    Except you've been conclusively proven wrong about Nordstream: it was the Ukrainians, as the NY Times (and other) have documented.
    I always said it would be the US, but using a proxy to provide plausible deniability

    The idea that the Ukes did this by themselves without asking for Biden’s permission (and surely some tactical help) is ludicrous
    So, what you're saying is that there's no actual evidence that the US is involved? (Other than your gut feeling.)
    Seriously. Think about it. You’re not dumb

    Do you honestly believe the Ukrainians - entirely dependent on the goodwill of Joe Biden’s admin - went off and torched Nordstream to please themselves, to fuck Germany and Russia, without a care in the world as to what their most important ally and chief armourer, the USA, felt about this assault? An assault on the energy infra and heavy industry of a hugely important NATO ally, Germany? Do you think that’s what happened? A couple of guys in Kyiv bought a dinghy and got pissed and did it for shits and gigs?

    Or do you think the Ukrainians read the many many signals of desire from the Biden admin (“we want to end Nordstream”, “if Russian invades Ukraine Nordstream will be finished”) and the Ukes went to DC and said “look, you want Nordstream ended, but you can’t do it because Germany will be pissed as fuck, so give us some assistance and we will do it, and you can deny it forever, so it’s win win for us both?”

    Which of those is the most likely scenario?

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,559
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:


    ‪Glen O'Hara‬ ‪@gsoh31.bsky.social‬
    ·
    41s
    A thousand US student visa terminations. No-one's going to study there then.

    https://bsky.app/profile/gsoh31.bsky.social/post/3lmuey6bflc2f



    How big is Harvard's endowment fund? There are going to need it...

    The humiliation of haughty, arrogant, uberWoke Harvard will be quite enjoyable, however
    Only if you don't care whether the US remains a free and democratic society.
    Leon apparently wants the same in the UK - unless he was just shitposting last night ?
    I certainly wasn't shitposting, and I certainly don't want the whole Trump lunatic agenda in the UK, the tariffs are mad, the Putin-loving foreign policy is all over the place...

    But the forceful extermination of Woke, DEI, cultural Marxism? The rigorous moves against fake asylum claims, against mass migration, against leftist lawfare, against activist judges, against those who are conspiring to destroy the West? - and I am afraid I cannot think of a better descrption - yes. I want all that
    Except, of course, by doing it in the way he's doing it, he's going to end up entrenching DEI.

    Oppositionialism.
    Yes, his horrific economic and foreign policy howlers are fucking up the good stuff he’s doing with Woke
    Oh, do fuck off about "Woke"! You're a "citizen of nowhere", gallivanting around the globe, and living in possibly the "wokest" part of London when you do bother staying in this country!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,654
    edited April 15

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Talking of Truss, I caught up with an old University chum for the first time in nearly 30 years on Sunday. He editor of the Oxford Student (OUSU funded rival of Cherwell) and told me of some of the lickspittle surrounding Truss when we were there (we were in the same year as her). I vaguely remembered some of the stories from the time but didn't associate them with her until he reminded me. For once in his existence it appears Leon might be right about something.

    lol

    It always ends up here

    "So it turns out Leon was right about something"

    Lab Leak, Covid, THING, China, THING, Nordstream, Biden's decline, on and on
    You told us the other day the capital of Kazakhstan is still called Nur-Sultan! It reverted to Astana in 2022.
    It's clear that you think you have a point here

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5177349/#Comment_5177349
    I do indeed!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astana

    Initially founded as Akmoly in 1830, the city was later renamed Akmolinsk, Tselinograd, and Akmola before adopting the name Astana in 1998, which means "capital city" in Kazakh.[15] In 2019, the city briefly adopted the name Nur-Sultan in honor of former president Nursultan Nazarbayev, but it returned to the name Astana in 2022.
    Leon called it Astana in the comment I just posted

    Leon called it Nur-Sultan in this comment on Sunday 8.18pm:

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5176716/#Comment_5176716
    On the other fucking hand, I am actually here in Astana nee Nur Sultan nee Astana, and I can report that tho it is has officially changed its name BACK to Astana, very many people still call it Nur Sultan; after Nur Sultan Nazarbayev, who founded it

    Here is my hand FILLING the golden handshape of Nur Sultan Nazarbayev, which is in the golden globe at the top of the tower that looms over his surreal steppe land Singapore: Nur Sultan Astana




    Tiny fingers bro. Never mind, eh.
    But special golden fingernails
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,283
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Talking of Truss, I caught up with an old University chum for the first time in nearly 30 years on Sunday. He editor of the Oxford Student (OUSU funded rival of Cherwell) and told me of some of the lickspittle surrounding Truss when we were there (we were in the same year as her). I vaguely remembered some of the stories from the time but didn't associate them with her until he reminded me. For once in his existence it appears Leon might be right about something.

    lol

    It always ends up here

    "So it turns out Leon was right about something"

    Lab Leak, Covid, THING, China, THING, Nordstream, Biden's decline, on and on
    Except you've been conclusively proven wrong about Nordstream: it was the Ukrainians, as the NY Times (and other) have documented.
    I always said it would be the US, but using a proxy to provide plausible deniability

    The idea that the Ukes did this by themselves without asking for Biden’s permission (and surely some tactical help) is ludicrous
    So, what you're saying is that there's no actual evidence that the US is involved? (Other than your gut feeling.)
    Seriously. Think about it. You’re not dumb

    Do you honestly believe the Ukrainians - entirely dependent on the goodwill of Joe Biden’s admin - went off and torched Nordstream to please themselves, to fuck Germany and Russia, without a care in the world as to what their most important ally and chief armourer, the USA, felt about this assault? An assault on the energy infra and heavy industry of a hugely important NATO ally, Germany? Do you think that’s what happened? A couple of guys in Kyiv bought a dinghy and got pissed and did it for shits and gigs?

    Or do you think the Ukrainians read the many many signals of desire from the Biden admin (“we want to end Nordstream”, “if Russian invades Ukraine Nordstream will be finished”) and the Ukes went to DC and said “look, you want Nordstream ended, but you can’t do it because Germany will be pissed as fuck, so give us some assistance and we will do it, and you can deny it forever, so it’s win win for us both?”

    Which of those is the most likely scenario?

    Again: you have no evidence.

    You original assertion was that it was the Americans. Now you say it was the Ukrainians with American connivance. Without evidence.

    And use that as example of you being right.

    If that is you being right, I'd hate to see what you being wrong looks like.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,407
    edited April 15
    Watching Ch4 get excited that JD Vance might give the UK a trade deal 'Because President Trump feels a strong connection with the UK and the Queen' is making me feel nauseous

    Can Starmer resist crawling on all fours and tell them to go f*** themselves?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,283
    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    DougSeal said:


    ‪Glen O'Hara‬ ‪@gsoh31.bsky.social‬
    ·
    41s
    A thousand US student visa terminations. No-one's going to study there then.

    https://bsky.app/profile/gsoh31.bsky.social/post/3lmuey6bflc2f



    How big is Harvard's endowment fund? There are going to need it...

    $53.2 billion as of June 30 last year

    https://www.hmc.harvard.edu/partners-performance/
    That will deliver something like 2-2.5% on a recurring basis to be taken out, whilst the capital also increases by inflation each year - I think that is the normal guideline.

    So $1.5bn or thereabouts.

    How much research funding is Trump threatening to stop if they won't follow his predilections?

    For Columbia University, iirc he was threatening $400m per annum, which was essentially as much as their endowment income.
    About $2 billion, according to the Beeb;

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz01y9gkdm3o

    Whether that's per year, or in total, doesn't seem clear from the reporting. Seriously difficult to manage, but probably not impossible. I suspect Harvard will still be doing what it does as smugly as ever when Trump and Vance are only appearing in "a warning from history" documentaries.
    If Trump just stops it, that's a $2bn hole in the accounts - even if temporary. And the endowment income will be committed already. Presumably they can liquidate some assets - but it's a big hit.
    It is a big hit: there will be a significant negative impact on financial support for poorer students, fees will probably have to rise (from their already insane levels), and there will be cutbacks in terms of teaching, research, and the like.

    Basically: belts will need to be tightened, no matter how large the endowment.

    On the other hand, Harvard's endowment and fee income is so large, that I'm sure it can stick two fingers up at the government.

    An interesting question is the extent to which States step up and support institutions. Could Massachusetts offer additional help for poorer students going to Harvard, for example? Or could a group of Democratic states combine and offer funding grants for research into climate change?
    I linked to a Fiona Hill 10 minute segment on the impact of Trump on the US Education / Tech Research sector a month or so ago.

    Her verdict: "They are killing the golden goose."

    Deep Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MdgvrK3zyWU&t=2401s
    According to t'internet it's slightly larger than that... but not much. ("For the Class of 2028, Harvard received 54,008 applications and extended offers of admission to 1,937 students.")

    Which is staggeringly few, considering how big the US is.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,654
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Talking of Truss, I caught up with an old University chum for the first time in nearly 30 years on Sunday. He editor of the Oxford Student (OUSU funded rival of Cherwell) and told me of some of the lickspittle surrounding Truss when we were there (we were in the same year as her). I vaguely remembered some of the stories from the time but didn't associate them with her until he reminded me. For once in his existence it appears Leon might be right about something.

    lol

    It always ends up here

    "So it turns out Leon was right about something"

    Lab Leak, Covid, THING, China, THING, Nordstream, Biden's decline, on and on
    Except you've been conclusively proven wrong about Nordstream: it was the Ukrainians, as the NY Times (and other) have documented.
    I always said it would be the US, but using a proxy to provide plausible deniability

    The idea that the Ukes did this by themselves without asking for Biden’s permission (and surely some tactical help) is ludicrous
    So, what you're saying is that there's no actual evidence that the US is involved? (Other than your gut feeling.)
    Seriously. Think about it. You’re not dumb

    Do you honestly believe the Ukrainians - entirely dependent on the goodwill of Joe Biden’s admin - went off and torched Nordstream to please themselves, to fuck Germany and Russia, without a care in the world as to what their most important ally and chief armourer, the USA, felt about this assault? An assault on the energy infra and heavy industry of a hugely important NATO ally, Germany? Do you think that’s what happened? A couple of guys in Kyiv bought a dinghy and got pissed and did it for shits and gigs?

    Or do you think the Ukrainians read the many many signals of desire from the Biden admin (“we want to end Nordstream”, “if Russian invades Ukraine Nordstream will be finished”) and the Ukes went to DC and said “look, you want Nordstream ended, but you can’t do it because Germany will be pissed as fuck, so give us some assistance and we will do it, and you can deny it forever, so it’s win win for us both?”

    Which of those is the most likely scenario?

    Again: you have no evidence.

    You original assertion was that it was the Americans. Now you say it was the Ukrainians with American connivance. Without evidence.

    And use that as example of you being right.

    If that is you being right, I'd hate to see what you being wrong looks like.
    If I remember correctly, your big theory was it was done by Russian oligarchs trying to undermine Putin in ways which never made any fucking sense whatsoever. So perhaps we shouldn’t go further down this memory lane, eh
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,283
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Talking of Truss, I caught up with an old University chum for the first time in nearly 30 years on Sunday. He editor of the Oxford Student (OUSU funded rival of Cherwell) and told me of some of the lickspittle surrounding Truss when we were there (we were in the same year as her). I vaguely remembered some of the stories from the time but didn't associate them with her until he reminded me. For once in his existence it appears Leon might be right about something.

    lol

    It always ends up here

    "So it turns out Leon was right about something"

    Lab Leak, Covid, THING, China, THING, Nordstream, Biden's decline, on and on
    Except you've been conclusively proven wrong about Nordstream: it was the Ukrainians, as the NY Times (and other) have documented.
    I always said it would be the US, but using a proxy to provide plausible deniability

    The idea that the Ukes did this by themselves without asking for Biden’s permission (and surely some tactical help) is ludicrous
    So, what you're saying is that there's no actual evidence that the US is involved? (Other than your gut feeling.)
    Seriously. Think about it. You’re not dumb

    Do you honestly believe the Ukrainians - entirely dependent on the goodwill of Joe Biden’s admin - went off and torched Nordstream to please themselves, to fuck Germany and Russia, without a care in the world as to what their most important ally and chief armourer, the USA, felt about this assault? An assault on the energy infra and heavy industry of a hugely important NATO ally, Germany? Do you think that’s what happened? A couple of guys in Kyiv bought a dinghy and got pissed and did it for shits and gigs?

    Or do you think the Ukrainians read the many many signals of desire from the Biden admin (“we want to end Nordstream”, “if Russian invades Ukraine Nordstream will be finished”) and the Ukes went to DC and said “look, you want Nordstream ended, but you can’t do it because Germany will be pissed as fuck, so give us some assistance and we will do it, and you can deny it forever, so it’s win win for us both?”

    Which of those is the most likely scenario?

    Again: you have no evidence.

    You original assertion was that it was the Americans. Now you say it was the Ukrainians with American connivance. Without evidence.

    And use that as example of you being right.

    If that is you being right, I'd hate to see what you being wrong looks like.
    If I remember correctly, your big theory was it was done by Russian oligarchs trying to undermine Putin in ways which never made any fucking sense whatsoever. So perhaps we shouldn’t go further down this memory lane, eh
    I am quite relaxed about you searching my posts. So knock yourself out.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,654
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Talking of Truss, I caught up with an old University chum for the first time in nearly 30 years on Sunday. He editor of the Oxford Student (OUSU funded rival of Cherwell) and told me of some of the lickspittle surrounding Truss when we were there (we were in the same year as her). I vaguely remembered some of the stories from the time but didn't associate them with her until he reminded me. For once in his existence it appears Leon might be right about something.

    lol

    It always ends up here

    "So it turns out Leon was right about something"

    Lab Leak, Covid, THING, China, THING, Nordstream, Biden's decline, on and on
    Except you've been conclusively proven wrong about Nordstream: it was the Ukrainians, as the NY Times (and other) have documented.
    I always said it would be the US, but using a proxy to provide plausible deniability

    The idea that the Ukes did this by themselves without asking for Biden’s permission (and surely some tactical help) is ludicrous
    So, what you're saying is that there's no actual evidence that the US is involved? (Other than your gut feeling.)
    Seriously. Think about it. You’re not dumb

    Do you honestly believe the Ukrainians - entirely dependent on the goodwill of Joe Biden’s admin - went off and torched Nordstream to please themselves, to fuck Germany and Russia, without a care in the world as to what their most important ally and chief armourer, the USA, felt about this assault? An assault on the energy infra and heavy industry of a hugely important NATO ally, Germany? Do you think that’s what happened? A couple of guys in Kyiv bought a dinghy and got pissed and did it for shits and gigs?

    Or do you think the Ukrainians read the many many signals of desire from the Biden admin (“we want to end Nordstream”, “if Russian invades Ukraine Nordstream will be finished”) and the Ukes went to DC and said “look, you want Nordstream ended, but you can’t do it because Germany will be pissed as fuck, so give us some assistance and we will do it, and you can deny it forever, so it’s win win for us both?”

    Which of those is the most likely scenario?

    Again: you have no evidence.

    You original assertion was that it was the Americans. Now you say it was the Ukrainians with American connivance. Without evidence.

    And use that as example of you being right.

    If that is you being right, I'd hate to see what you being wrong looks like.
    If I remember correctly, your big theory was it was done by Russian oligarchs trying to undermine Putin in ways which never made any fucking sense whatsoever. So perhaps we shouldn’t go further down this memory lane, eh
    I am quite relaxed about you searching my posts. So knock yourself out.
    I searched mine instead


    Flag Quote · Like
    Leon Posts: 59,533
    October 2022


    “I am fairly confident the USA did Nordstream, tho they might have used a proxy to get it done yet avoid the blame (Ukraine itself, or maybe the Poles or Finns)

    The strategic prize of keeping Germany on the western side, reliant on America, and also of cutting off Putin's options - one day selling more gas to Europe - was irresistible for Washington. And recall we have several vids of Biden and aides months ago saying the USA would do exactly this: cut Nordsream (one way or another)”



    That was in OCTOBER 2022

    Honestly, sometimes I amaze myself
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,654
    This site doesn’t deserve me, and should certainly start paying me
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,559
    Leon said:

    This site doesn’t deserve me, and should certainly start paying me

    You could always set up your own. How about "Leonbetting.com"?
  • Leon said:

    This site doesn’t deserve me, and should certainly start paying me

    You could always set up your own. How about "Leonbetting.com"?
    Politicalbedwetting.com ?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,654
    Rrrrrirght, I need some kip

    Night nighty from NUR SULTAN, NEE ASTANA, PB

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,228
    Leon said:

    This site doesn’t deserve me, and should certainly start paying me

    I sense a business opportunity for OGH.

    Daily auction of Leon to be banned for the day or paid by the readership. Banned all the money goes to OGH, paid split 45/45. I'll take my agents 10%.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,397
    Leon said:

    This site doesn’t deserve me, and should certainly start paying me

    Just you? Or certain others as well?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,446
    Republicans against Trump
    @RpsAgainstTrump
    ·
    1h
    Steve Bannon: We're working on 5 or 6 different alternatives for how Trump could run again and be president…I continue to say that on the afternoon of January 20th, 2029, Donald Trump is going to be president for his third term.
    (This is blatantly unconstitutional)

    https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1912193386813042995
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,717

    ydoethur said:

    LilaZ said:

    Leon said:

    Have we finally found the one thing that unites all of PB? All of us love big old trees and hate to see them hacked down for no reason? Or is there still some dark-hearted PB Scot Nat that likes the idea of dead English oaks?

    I can't abide a tree.
    You have been twigged as a Russian troll.
    Branching out from vaccine conspiracies?
    Tree puns are too easy.
    You’ve got it nailed
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,760
    edited April 15
    Based on this video people are still underestimating the impact that the rise of Chinese industry will have on the world and the West.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDnajEMvcF8

    For around 15% of the price [of a 7 series] you can have better technology than in every single Mercedes, every single BMW, every single Rolls-Royce, every single Audi, every single Porsche. This is miles better. It's not even a close comparison.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,446
    Leon said:

    This site doesn’t deserve me, and should certainly start paying me

    If you did more foreign travel and posted more photos of exotic animal meals then maybe, but as things stand I think we should decline.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,228

    Republicans against Trump
    @RpsAgainstTrump
    ·
    1h
    Steve Bannon: We're working on 5 or 6 different alternatives for how Trump could run again and be president…I continue to say that on the afternoon of January 20th, 2029, Donald Trump is going to be president for his third term.
    (This is blatantly unconstitutional)

    https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1912193386813042995

    They need to rebrand as conservatives against Trump if they can't bring themselves to switch party. The Republican party is Trump.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,969
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:


    ‪Glen O'Hara‬ ‪@gsoh31.bsky.social‬
    ·
    41s
    A thousand US student visa terminations. No-one's going to study there then.

    https://bsky.app/profile/gsoh31.bsky.social/post/3lmuey6bflc2f



    How big is Harvard's endowment fund? There are going to need it...

    The humiliation of haughty, arrogant, uberWoke Harvard will be quite enjoyable, however
    Only if you don't care whether the US remains a free and democratic society.
    Leon apparently wants the same in the UK - unless he was just shitposting last night ?
    I certainly wasn't shitposting, and I certainly don't want the whole Trump lunatic agenda in the UK, the tariffs are mad, the Putin-loving foreign policy is all over the place...

    But the forceful extermination of Woke, DEI, cultural Marxism? The rigorous moves against fake asylum claims, against mass migration, against leftist lawfare, against activist judges, against those who are conspiring to destroy the West? - and I am afraid I cannot think of a better descrption - yes. I want all that
    Except, of course, by doing it in the way he's doing it, he's going to end up entrenching DEI.

    Oppositionialism.
    Yes, his horrific economic and foreign policy howlers are fucking up the good stuff he’s doing with Woke
    Also - Trump's way of achieving his goals is to publicly bully and berate people, which means that they get their backs up.

    If Trump had really wanted to dismantle DEI he would simply have announced that for all future grant applications, universities would need to demonstrate that said grant application would not be tainted by such policies. It would be very hard to object to that, but academics questing after grant money would need to make sure their departments didn't have that. Indeed: ambitious academics would therefore head to States where such policies were less common.

    And because it would be a small, incremental, change, it would be hard for anyone to get worked up over it.

    It would have pushed the agenda, and almost certainly made a great many institutions change their policies.

    Now, instead, he's generated a ton of opposition to his policies. And he's tried to force private institutions to bend to his will in the most unsubtle way possible.
    True. But good governance is hardly the point with Trump. It's all about being performative, owning the libs, and firing up the base. With a bit of gratuitous cruelty thrown in.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,211

    Based on this video people are still underestimating the impact that the rise of Chinese industry will have on the world and the West.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDnajEMvcF8

    For around 15% of the price [of a 7 series] you can have better technology than in every single Mercedes, every single BMW, every single Rolls-Royce, every single Audi, every single Porsche. This is miles better. It's not even a close comparison.

    Indeed. We may have to sell the British car industry to foreign ownership...

    ...oh
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,717
    MattW said:

    Update on Orphan Shares.

    I asked the other day week about dealing with shares that has reappeared in a parent's estate after we thought it was all wrapped up.

    It seems that Sharegift - sharegift.org - offer an administratively easy way, avoiding me needing to get into accountants and solicitors, of aggregating lots of small and orphan shareholdings together, selling them, and of donating them to a charity of my choice. They have free service agreements with the various parties involved.

    With (I think) no tax implications as charity donations are tax free.

    https://www.sharegift.org/

    They have done just under £60m of donations in this way since 1996.

    On tax you may be able to get a benefit on your own tax return if it is worth the hassle
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,559
    Leon said:

    Rrrrrirght, I need some kip

    Night nighty from NUR SULTAN, NEE ASTANA, PB

    NEE AKMOLY!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,283

    Republicans against Trump
    @RpsAgainstTrump
    ·
    1h
    Steve Bannon: We're working on 5 or 6 different alternatives for how Trump could run again and be president…I continue to say that on the afternoon of January 20th, 2029, Donald Trump is going to be president for his third term.
    (This is blatantly unconstitutional)

    https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1912193386813042995

    Given the direction of Trump's poll ratings, and how his party performed in the Florida Special Elections, I suspect the Democrats would be overjoyed to face Trump again in 2028:


  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,407
    The US are arresting students. This is heading for the great days of the early 70's. What is this Trump government turning into?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,319

    Republicans against Trump
    @RpsAgainstTrump
    ·
    1h
    Steve Bannon: We're working on 5 or 6 different alternatives for how Trump could run again and be president…I continue to say that on the afternoon of January 20th, 2029, Donald Trump is going to be president for his third term.
    (This is blatantly unconstitutional)

    https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1912193386813042995

    They need to rebrand as conservatives against Trump if they can't bring themselves to switch party. The Republican party is Trump.
    And that's an important difference to 1930s Germany. Most people joining the Nazi party knew who its leader was. Taking over an extant party, which has a history and ought to have patronised MAGA to death... that's quite an achievement.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,717
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Talking of Truss, I caught up with an old University chum for the first time in nearly 30 years on Sunday. He editor of the Oxford Student (OUSU funded rival of Cherwell) and told me of some of the lickspittle surrounding Truss when we were there (we were in the same year as her). I vaguely remembered some of the stories from the time but didn't associate them with her until he reminded me. For once in his existence it appears Leon might be right about something.

    lol

    It always ends up here

    "So it turns out Leon was right about something"

    Lab Leak, Covid, THING, China, THING, Nordstream, Biden's decline, on and on
    You told us the other day the capital of Kazakhstan is still called Nur-Sultan! It reverted to Astana in 2022.
    It's clear that you think you have a point here

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5177349/#Comment_5177349
    I do indeed!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astana

    Initially founded as Akmoly in 1830, the city was later renamed Akmolinsk, Tselinograd, and Akmola before adopting the name Astana in 1998, which means "capital city" in Kazakh.[15] In 2019, the city briefly adopted the name Nur-Sultan in honor of former president Nursultan Nazarbayev, but it returned to the name Astana in 2022.
    Leon called it Astana in the comment I just posted

    Leon called it Nur-Sultan in this comment on Sunday 8.18pm:

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5176716/#Comment_5176716
    On the other fucking hand, I am actually here in Astana nee Nur Sultan nee Astana, and I can report that tho it is has officially changed its name BACK to Astana, very many people still call it Nur Sultan; after Nur Sultan Nazarbayev, who founded it

    Here is my hand FILLING the golden handshape of Nur Sultan Nazarbayev, which is in the golden globe at the top of the tower that looms over his surreal steppe land Singapore: Nur Sultan Astana




    What little fingers you have
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,319
    rcs1000 said:

    Republicans against Trump
    @RpsAgainstTrump
    ·
    1h
    Steve Bannon: We're working on 5 or 6 different alternatives for how Trump could run again and be president…I continue to say that on the afternoon of January 20th, 2029, Donald Trump is going to be president for his third term.
    (This is blatantly unconstitutional)

    https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1912193386813042995

    Given the direction of Trump's poll ratings, and how his party performed in the Florida Special Elections, I suspect the Democrats would be overjoyed to face Trump again in 2028:


    In a free and fair election, perhaps...

    (At some point, Trump reaches the point where the only safe way for him to leave the White House is in a coffin. I'm not sure that threshold hasn't already been crossed.)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,211

    rcs1000 said:

    Republicans against Trump
    @RpsAgainstTrump
    ·
    1h
    Steve Bannon: We're working on 5 or 6 different alternatives for how Trump could run again and be president…I continue to say that on the afternoon of January 20th, 2029, Donald Trump is going to be president for his third term.
    (This is blatantly unconstitutional)

    https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1912193386813042995

    Given the direction of Trump's poll ratings, and how his party performed in the Florida Special Elections, I suspect the Democrats would be overjoyed to face Trump again in 2028:


    In a free and fair election, perhaps...

    (At some point, Trump reaches the point where the only safe way for him to leave the White House is in a coffin. I'm not sure that threshold hasn't already been crossed.)
    I'm pretty sure that's the most unsafe way of leaving the White House. :)
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