The Trump impact? – politicalbetting.com

System · April 15

The Trump impact? – politicalbetting.com

The number of Britons saying the economy is a top issue has reached its highest level since September 2023Economy: 58% (+2 from 5-7 Apr)Immigration: 44% (=)Health: 34% (=)Defence: 24% (+1)Crime: 21% (+1)Housing: 20% (+2)Environment: 15% (=)Welfare: 15% (-2)yougov.co.uk/topics/socie…

Read the full story here

Nigelb · April 15

Furst

Autocorrect wanted to alter that.
No way.

Nigelb · April 15

rottenborough said:

Nigelb said:
Cofounder of Y Combinator.

What an interesting twist of history it would be if the UK became a hub of intellectual refugees the way the US itself did in the 1930s and 40s. It wouldn't take much more than what's already happening...
https://x.com/paulg/status/1912147610296795176

Absolutely.

No 10 needs a team set up now to facilitate this: special visas, liaison with top HEIs, etc. Whatever it takes. Don't let a crisis go to waste.

Only problem is when the Trumpsters finds out.

Actually, there's one more problem - all those people over here who want to copy what Trump is doing over there.

ydoethur · April 15

FPT

jamesdoyle said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

MattW said:
Ex-Tree of the Day (Enfield)

Felling of ancient oak tree probed by police
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cewgypewepno

The cutting down of an ancient oak tree in north London is being investigated by the Metropolitan Police.

The remains of the oak, estimated to be up to 500 years old, were discovered by council workers last week in Whitewebbs Park, Enfield. An emergency tree preservation order has now been imposed on the base of its stump.

The tree, with a girth of 6.1m (20ft), was a nationally significant pedunculate oak and listed on the Woodland Trust's national ancient tree inventory

Why have people taken to cutting down ancient trees? What's in it for them? It does not look like a development site, and I've not heard of a TikTok lumberjack league.

And on the question of basic state competence, why was there not already a preservation order on it given it is on the ancient tree registry?
Councils don't generally put TPOs on trees on their own land, the general presumption being that they aren't having to protect them from the sort of owners who chop them down on a whim.
Local media are saying the tree was felled by owners of the nearby Toby Carvery. Watch this space.

Whut? Why the actual fuckety fuck would they do that?

Leon · April 15

Fpt for @viewcode on Wuhan

I have actually thought about doing this. Going there. Wuhan

But would the Chinese allow it? The lack of other journalistic reports from there makes me skeptical on this point

rcs1000 · April 15

On the previous thread there was a discussion about Covid vaccines, and their danger, etc.

And the funny bit is that I got involved in a "discussion" on this very issue on Substack only the other day. Someone claimed that Covid vaccines killed many times more people than the virus.

Now, there is a basic statistical point that it is entirely possible for Covid vaccines to kill more people than Covid, and yet for them still to be a net positive for mortality.

But I didn't want to go down that rabbit hole.

Instead, I posed the following question: If Covid vaccines killed many more people than the virus could, then any country that was isolated from the virus due to geography, but which had mass Covid vaccinations must have had much worse excess deaths than one that experienced the virus.

It is simply not possible for a country which did not get the virus, but did vaccinate everyone to have better outcomes, if the vaccine caused more death than the virus.

So how come Australia and New Zealand - which both have close to 100% Covid vaccination rates, but which never experienced Covid, due to closure of their borders - had no excess deaths in 2020 or 2021 at all?

rottenborough · April 15

Carville 'don't interrupt the enemy' strategy latest:

Spencer Hakimian
@SpencerHakimian
·
17m
30 Year Mortgages now cost 7.50% again.

Nothing working out for consumers here.

Just an avalanche of bad news one after another.

https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/1912146620637905027

rottenborough · April 15

Leon said:
Fpt for @viewcode on Wuhan

I have actually thought about doing this. Going there. Wuhan

But would the Chinese allow it? The lack of other journalistic reports from there makes me skeptical on this point

I suspect if you go there and started quizzing wet market vendors you may find a call to the UK consul is needed very urgently.

carnforth · April 15

jamesdoyle said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

MattW said:
Ex-Tree of the Day (Enfield)

Felling of ancient oak tree probed by police
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cewgypewepno

The cutting down of an ancient oak tree in north London is being investigated by the Metropolitan Police.

The remains of the oak, estimated to be up to 500 years old, were discovered by council workers last week in Whitewebbs Park, Enfield. An emergency tree preservation order has now been imposed on the base of its stump.

The tree, with a girth of 6.1m (20ft), was a nationally significant pedunculate oak and listed on the Woodland Trust's national ancient tree inventory

Why have people taken to cutting down ancient trees? What's in it for them? It does not look like a development site, and I've not heard of a TikTok lumberjack league.

And on the question of basic state competence, why was there not already a preservation order on it given it is on the ancient tree registry?
Councils don't generally put TPOs on trees on their own land, the general presumption being that they aren't having to protect them from the sort of owners who chop them down on a whim.
Local media are saying the tree was felled by owners of the nearby Toby Carvery. Watch this space.

Explains their roast pork.

Foss · April 15

ydoethur said:
FPT
jamesdoyle said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

MattW said:
Ex-Tree of the Day (Enfield)

Felling of ancient oak tree probed by police
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cewgypewepno

The cutting down of an ancient oak tree in north London is being investigated by the Metropolitan Police.

The remains of the oak, estimated to be up to 500 years old, were discovered by council workers last week in Whitewebbs Park, Enfield. An emergency tree preservation order has now been imposed on the base of its stump.

The tree, with a girth of 6.1m (20ft), was a nationally significant pedunculate oak and listed on the Woodland Trust's national ancient tree inventory

Why have people taken to cutting down ancient trees? What's in it for them? It does not look like a development site, and I've not heard of a TikTok lumberjack league.

And on the question of basic state competence, why was there not already a preservation order on it given it is on the ancient tree registry?
Councils don't generally put TPOs on trees on their own land, the general presumption being that they aren't having to protect them from the sort of owners who chop them down on a whim.
Local media are saying the tree was felled by owners of the nearby Toby Carvery. Watch this space.
Whut? Why the actual fuckety fuck would they do that?

The Mail has a story on it.

ydoethur · April 15

rottenborough said:

Leon said:
Fpt for @viewcode on Wuhan

I have actually thought about doing this. Going there. Wuhan

But would the Chinese allow it? The lack of other journalistic reports from there makes me skeptical on this point
I suspect if you go there and started quizzing wet market vendors you may find a call to the UK consul is needed very urgently.

Indeed.

They would go completely bats.

carnforth · April 15

Foss said:

ydoethur said:
FPT
jamesdoyle said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

MattW said:
Ex-Tree of the Day (Enfield)

Felling of ancient oak tree probed by police
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cewgypewepno

The cutting down of an ancient oak tree in north London is being investigated by the Metropolitan Police.

The remains of the oak, estimated to be up to 500 years old, were discovered by council workers last week in Whitewebbs Park, Enfield. An emergency tree preservation order has now been imposed on the base of its stump.

The tree, with a girth of 6.1m (20ft), was a nationally significant pedunculate oak and listed on the Woodland Trust's national ancient tree inventory

Why have people taken to cutting down ancient trees? What's in it for them? It does not look like a development site, and I've not heard of a TikTok lumberjack league.

And on the question of basic state competence, why was there not already a preservation order on it given it is on the ancient tree registry?
Councils don't generally put TPOs on trees on their own land, the general presumption being that they aren't having to protect them from the sort of owners who chop them down on a whim.
Local media are saying the tree was felled by owners of the nearby Toby Carvery. Watch this space.
Whut? Why the actual fuckety fuck would they do that?
The Mail has a story on it.

Ah, Toby Carvery claim it was dead.

ydoethur · April 15

carnforth said:

Foss said:

ydoethur said:
FPT
jamesdoyle said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

MattW said:
Ex-Tree of the Day (Enfield)

Felling of ancient oak tree probed by police
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cewgypewepno

The cutting down of an ancient oak tree in north London is being investigated by the Metropolitan Police.

The remains of the oak, estimated to be up to 500 years old, were discovered by council workers last week in Whitewebbs Park, Enfield. An emergency tree preservation order has now been imposed on the base of its stump.

The tree, with a girth of 6.1m (20ft), was a nationally significant pedunculate oak and listed on the Woodland Trust's national ancient tree inventory

Why have people taken to cutting down ancient trees? What's in it for them? It does not look like a development site, and I've not heard of a TikTok lumberjack league.

And on the question of basic state competence, why was there not already a preservation order on it given it is on the ancient tree registry?
Councils don't generally put TPOs on trees on their own land, the general presumption being that they aren't having to protect them from the sort of owners who chop them down on a whim.
Local media are saying the tree was felled by owners of the nearby Toby Carvery. Watch this space.
Whut? Why the actual fuckety fuck would they do that?
The Mail has a story on it.
Ah, Toby Carvery claim it was dead.

The wood doesn't look dead to me. And even if it was, they shouldn't have felled it willy nilly given it was council owned even if they leased the land.

I would really, really not want to be them or their contractor.

Peter_the_Punter · April 15

carnforth said:

Foss said:

ydoethur said:
FPT
jamesdoyle said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

MattW said:
Ex-Tree of the Day (Enfield)

Felling of ancient oak tree probed by police
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cewgypewepno

The cutting down of an ancient oak tree in north London is being investigated by the Metropolitan Police.

The remains of the oak, estimated to be up to 500 years old, were discovered by council workers last week in Whitewebbs Park, Enfield. An emergency tree preservation order has now been imposed on the base of its stump.

The tree, with a girth of 6.1m (20ft), was a nationally significant pedunculate oak and listed on the Woodland Trust's national ancient tree inventory

Why have people taken to cutting down ancient trees? What's in it for them? It does not look like a development site, and I've not heard of a TikTok lumberjack league.

And on the question of basic state competence, why was there not already a preservation order on it given it is on the ancient tree registry?
Councils don't generally put TPOs on trees on their own land, the general presumption being that they aren't having to protect them from the sort of owners who chop them down on a whim.
Local media are saying the tree was felled by owners of the nearby Toby Carvery. Watch this space.
Whut? Why the actual fuckety fuck would they do that?
The Mail has a story on it.
Ah, Toby Carvery claim it was dead.

Porky pies on the menu today?

williamglenn · April 15

Apparently the USP for Liz Truss's social media platform is that anything you post will self-destruct after a short period. Could be a winner.

Flatlander · April 15

carnforth said:

Foss said:

ydoethur said:
FPT
jamesdoyle said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

MattW said:
Ex-Tree of the Day (Enfield)

Felling of ancient oak tree probed by police
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cewgypewepno

The cutting down of an ancient oak tree in north London is being investigated by the Metropolitan Police.

The remains of the oak, estimated to be up to 500 years old, were discovered by council workers last week in Whitewebbs Park, Enfield. An emergency tree preservation order has now been imposed on the base of its stump.

The tree, with a girth of 6.1m (20ft), was a nationally significant pedunculate oak and listed on the Woodland Trust's national ancient tree inventory

Why have people taken to cutting down ancient trees? What's in it for them? It does not look like a development site, and I've not heard of a TikTok lumberjack league.

And on the question of basic state competence, why was there not already a preservation order on it given it is on the ancient tree registry?
Councils don't generally put TPOs on trees on their own land, the general presumption being that they aren't having to protect them from the sort of owners who chop them down on a whim.
Local media are saying the tree was felled by owners of the nearby Toby Carvery. Watch this space.
Whut? Why the actual fuckety fuck would they do that?
The Mail has a story on it.
Ah, Toby Carvery claim it was dead.

That didn't look dead at all, although to be fair it probably still isn't.

If you want to keep old oak trees going the best way is to pollard them. That might look similar to this but you would not take it down to just the main trunk.

Most of our really ancient oak trees were pollarded in the past.

However, you'd need all sorts of paperwork to do it on a TPO tree, particularly during the bird breeding season and on an old oak that likely has cavities used by bats.

Bet they want a car park extension or something.

Peter_the_Punter · April 15

ydoethur said:

carnforth said:

Foss said:

ydoethur said:
FPT
jamesdoyle said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

MattW said:
Ex-Tree of the Day (Enfield)

Felling of ancient oak tree probed by police
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cewgypewepno

The cutting down of an ancient oak tree in north London is being investigated by the Metropolitan Police.

The remains of the oak, estimated to be up to 500 years old, were discovered by council workers last week in Whitewebbs Park, Enfield. An emergency tree preservation order has now been imposed on the base of its stump.

The tree, with a girth of 6.1m (20ft), was a nationally significant pedunculate oak and listed on the Woodland Trust's national ancient tree inventory

Why have people taken to cutting down ancient trees? What's in it for them? It does not look like a development site, and I've not heard of a TikTok lumberjack league.

And on the question of basic state competence, why was there not already a preservation order on it given it is on the ancient tree registry?
Councils don't generally put TPOs on trees on their own land, the general presumption being that they aren't having to protect them from the sort of owners who chop them down on a whim.
Local media are saying the tree was felled by owners of the nearby Toby Carvery. Watch this space.
Whut? Why the actual fuckety fuck would they do that?
The Mail has a story on it.
Ah, Toby Carvery claim it was dead.
The wood doesn't look dead to me. And even if it was, they shouldn't have felled it willy nilly given it was council owned even if they leased the land.

I would really, really not want to be them or their contractor.

If it is true, and they do not have a really solid explanation, they have just ratnered their product.

ydoethur · April 15

Peter_the_Punter said:

ydoethur said:

carnforth said:

Foss said:

ydoethur said:
FPT
jamesdoyle said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

MattW said:
Ex-Tree of the Day (Enfield)

Felling of ancient oak tree probed by police
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cewgypewepno

The cutting down of an ancient oak tree in north London is being investigated by the Metropolitan Police.

The remains of the oak, estimated to be up to 500 years old, were discovered by council workers last week in Whitewebbs Park, Enfield. An emergency tree preservation order has now been imposed on the base of its stump.

The tree, with a girth of 6.1m (20ft), was a nationally significant pedunculate oak and listed on the Woodland Trust's national ancient tree inventory

Why have people taken to cutting down ancient trees? What's in it for them? It does not look like a development site, and I've not heard of a TikTok lumberjack league.

And on the question of basic state competence, why was there not already a preservation order on it given it is on the ancient tree registry?
Councils don't generally put TPOs on trees on their own land, the general presumption being that they aren't having to protect them from the sort of owners who chop them down on a whim.
Local media are saying the tree was felled by owners of the nearby Toby Carvery. Watch this space.
Whut? Why the actual fuckety fuck would they do that?
The Mail has a story on it.
Ah, Toby Carvery claim it was dead.
The wood doesn't look dead to me. And even if it was, they shouldn't have felled it willy nilly given it was council owned even if they leased the land.

I would really, really not want to be them or their contractor.
If it is true, and they do not have a really solid explanation, they have just ratnered their product.

By the time they've finished paying fines, costs and damages it will be the Home of the Roasted.

Foss · April 15

Peter_the_Punter said:

ydoethur said:

carnforth said:

Foss said:

ydoethur said:
FPT
jamesdoyle said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

MattW said:
Ex-Tree of the Day (Enfield)

Felling of ancient oak tree probed by police
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cewgypewepno

The cutting down of an ancient oak tree in north London is being investigated by the Metropolitan Police.

The remains of the oak, estimated to be up to 500 years old, were discovered by council workers last week in Whitewebbs Park, Enfield. An emergency tree preservation order has now been imposed on the base of its stump.

The tree, with a girth of 6.1m (20ft), was a nationally significant pedunculate oak and listed on the Woodland Trust's national ancient tree inventory

Why have people taken to cutting down ancient trees? What's in it for them? It does not look like a development site, and I've not heard of a TikTok lumberjack league.

And on the question of basic state competence, why was there not already a preservation order on it given it is on the ancient tree registry?
Councils don't generally put TPOs on trees on their own land, the general presumption being that they aren't having to protect them from the sort of owners who chop them down on a whim.
Local media are saying the tree was felled by owners of the nearby Toby Carvery. Watch this space.
Whut? Why the actual fuckety fuck would they do that?
The Mail has a story on it.
Ah, Toby Carvery claim it was dead.
The wood doesn't look dead to me. And even if it was, they shouldn't have felled it willy nilly given it was council owned even if they leased the land.

I would really, really not want to be them or their contractor.
If it is true, and they do not have a really solid explanation, they have just ratnered their product.

Unfortunately I'm not sure that the overlap between Toby Carvery users and people who value trees like this is that large.

Leon · April 15

ydoethur said:

carnforth said:

Foss said:

ydoethur said:
FPT
jamesdoyle said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

MattW said:
Ex-Tree of the Day (Enfield)

Felling of ancient oak tree probed by police
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cewgypewepno

The cutting down of an ancient oak tree in north London is being investigated by the Metropolitan Police.

The remains of the oak, estimated to be up to 500 years old, were discovered by council workers last week in Whitewebbs Park, Enfield. An emergency tree preservation order has now been imposed on the base of its stump.

The tree, with a girth of 6.1m (20ft), was a nationally significant pedunculate oak and listed on the Woodland Trust's national ancient tree inventory

Why have people taken to cutting down ancient trees? What's in it for them? It does not look like a development site, and I've not heard of a TikTok lumberjack league.

And on the question of basic state competence, why was there not already a preservation order on it given it is on the ancient tree registry?
Councils don't generally put TPOs on trees on their own land, the general presumption being that they aren't having to protect them from the sort of owners who chop them down on a whim.
Local media are saying the tree was felled by owners of the nearby Toby Carvery. Watch this space.
Whut? Why the actual fuckety fuck would they do that?
The Mail has a story on it.
Ah, Toby Carvery claim it was dead.
The wood doesn't look dead to me. And even if it was, they shouldn't have felled it willy nilly given it was council owned even if they leased the land.

I would really, really not want to be them or their contractor.

Yes, it looks extremely Not Dead in the photos. Old, grandly old, but not dead

I still haven't forgiven the HS2 c*nts that felled all the beautiful mature planes outside Euston Station. Trees which were not only majestic in themselves, but provided the precious public service of making it harder to see Euston Station

Leon · April 15

williamglenn said:
Apparently the USP for Liz Truss's social media platform is that anything you post will self-destruct after a short period. Could be a winner.

She should SO call it TheNecklace.com - linking people together on a spanking new website!

Nigelb · April 15

Leon said:
Fpt for @viewcode on Wuhan

I have actually thought about doing this. Going there. Wuhan

But would the Chinese allow it? The lack of other journalistic reports from there makes me skeptical on this point

You've missed the cherry blossom,
https://www.cathaypacific.com/cx/en_US/destinations/things-to-do.wuhan.html

Some information and links here:
https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/china/entry-requirements

DougSeal · April 15

williamglenn said:
Apparently the USP for Liz Truss's social media platform is that anything you post will self-destruct after a short period. Could be a winner.

Edit: Belatedly Doug got the joke.

Leon · April 15

Nigelb said:

Leon said:
Fpt for @viewcode on Wuhan

I have actually thought about doing this. Going there. Wuhan

But would the Chinese allow it? The lack of other journalistic reports from there makes me skeptical on this point
You've missed the cherry blossom,
https://www.cathaypacific.com/cx/en_US/destinations/things-to-do.wuhan.html

I know of an extremely nice 278 metre walk in Wuhan. I've actually measured the precise distance on Google Maps. Ends at some kind of market

Stuartinromford · April 15

DougSeal said:

williamglenn said:
Apparently the USP for Liz Truss's social media platform is that anything you post will self-destruct after a short period. Could be a winner.
Hooray. The Lettuce has reinvented Snapchat. And doubtless uninvented screenshots.

Well, as well as being an expert in rapid self-destruction, the last PM but one has experience in denying that the destruction ever happened.

DougSeal · April 15

Stuartinromford said:

DougSeal said:

williamglenn said:
Apparently the USP for Liz Truss's social media platform is that anything you post will self-destruct after a short period. Could be a winner.
Hooray. The Lettuce has reinvented Snapchat. And doubtless uninvented screenshots.
Well, as well as being an expert in rapid self-destruction, the last PM but one has experience in denying that the destruction ever happened.

I clearly missed the joke.

Stuartinromford · April 15

DougSeal said:

Stuartinromford said:

DougSeal said:

williamglenn said:
Apparently the USP for Liz Truss's social media platform is that anything you post will self-destruct after a short period. Could be a winner.
Hooray. The Lettuce has reinvented Snapchat. And doubtless uninvented screenshots.
Well, as well as being an expert in rapid self-destruction, the last PM but one has experience in denying that the destruction ever happened.
I clearly missed the joke.

But it also added to it.

DougSeal · April 15

Stuartinromford said:

DougSeal said:

Stuartinromford said:

DougSeal said:

williamglenn said:
Apparently the USP for Liz Truss's social media platform is that anything you post will self-destruct after a short period. Could be a winner.
Hooray. The Lettuce has reinvented Snapchat. And doubtless uninvented screenshots.
Well, as well as being an expert in rapid self-destruction, the last PM but one has experience in denying that the destruction ever happened.
I clearly missed the joke.
But it also added to it.

Thank you. It takes talent.

DougSeal · April 15

Whoever said on here that Truss is suffering symptoms of PTSD had a point.

Nigelb · April 15

Leon said:

Nigelb said:

Leon said:
Fpt for @viewcode on Wuhan

I have actually thought about doing this. Going there. Wuhan

But would the Chinese allow it? The lack of other journalistic reports from there makes me skeptical on this point
You've missed the cherry blossom,
https://www.cathaypacific.com/cx/en_US/destinations/things-to-do.wuhan.html
I know of an extremely nice 278 metre walk in Wuhan. I've actually measured the precise distance on Google Maps. Ends at some kind of market

I think you'd be allowed in. Probably.

But there might be consequences.
https://rsf.org/en/china-rsf-condemns-cyber-harassment-campaign-fuelled-state-backed-smear-campaign-against-two-french

TheScreamingEagles · April 15

DougSeal said:
Whoever said on here that Truss is suffering symptoms of PTSD had a point.

It was told to me by [redacted].

Scott_xP · April 15

@SpencerHakimian

Boeing is trading down -3.5% this morning while Airbus is trading up +0.5% this morning on the news that China will not be buying from Boeing anymore.

The tariffs are turning out to be a historic punishment on the American people and a historic opportunity for non-American companies.

The definition of stupidity is doing something that hurts you and helps others.

https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/1912126455871320509

Scott_xP · April 15

williamglenn said:
Apparently the USP for Liz Truss's social media platform is that anything you post will self-destruct after a short period. Could be a winner.

Apparently it is going to be called Liztickle

DougSeal · April 15

TheScreamingEagles said:

DougSeal said:
Whoever said on here that Truss is suffering symptoms of PTSD had a point.
It was told to me by [redacted].

You monstrous tease!

MattW · April 15

FPT

jamesdoyle said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

MattW said:
Ex-Tree of the Day (Enfield)

Felling of ancient oak tree probed by police
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cewgypewepno

The cutting down of an ancient oak tree in north London is being investigated by the Metropolitan Police.

The remains of the oak, estimated to be up to 500 years old, were discovered by council workers last week in Whitewebbs Park, Enfield. An emergency tree preservation order has now been imposed on the base of its stump.

The tree, with a girth of 6.1m (20ft), was a nationally significant pedunculate oak and listed on the Woodland Trust's national ancient tree inventory

Why have people taken to cutting down ancient trees? What's in it for them? It does not look like a development site, and I've not heard of a TikTok lumberjack league.

And on the question of basic state competence, why was there not already a preservation order on it given it is on the ancient tree registry?
Councils don't generally put TPOs on trees on their own land, the general presumption being that they aren't having to protect them from the sort of owners who chop them down on a whim.
Local media are saying the tree was felled by owners of the nearby Toby Carvery. Watch this space.

https://enfielddispatch.co.uk/toby-carvery-admits-felling-ancient-whitewebbs-oak-tree/

Allegedly it was a serious H&S hazard near the car park of the pub.

Here's the Google Streetview. https://maps.app.goo.gl/iUWFKqFghq5WysUf7

These people are going to be for the f*cking high jump.

And I think all similar trees will be TPOd quite soon.

No_Offence_Alan · April 15

ydoethur said:
FPT
jamesdoyle said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

MattW said:
Ex-Tree of the Day (Enfield)

Felling of ancient oak tree probed by police
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cewgypewepno

The cutting down of an ancient oak tree in north London is being investigated by the Metropolitan Police.

The remains of the oak, estimated to be up to 500 years old, were discovered by council workers last week in Whitewebbs Park, Enfield. An emergency tree preservation order has now been imposed on the base of its stump.

The tree, with a girth of 6.1m (20ft), was a nationally significant pedunculate oak and listed on the Woodland Trust's national ancient tree inventory

Why have people taken to cutting down ancient trees? What's in it for them? It does not look like a development site, and I've not heard of a TikTok lumberjack league.

And on the question of basic state competence, why was there not already a preservation order on it given it is on the ancient tree registry?
Councils don't generally put TPOs on trees on their own land, the general presumption being that they aren't having to protect them from the sort of owners who chop them down on a whim.
Local media are saying the tree was felled by owners of the nearby Toby Carvery. Watch this space.
Whut? Why the actual fuckety fuck would they do that?

Going trendy with circles of wood as plates?

Leon · April 15

Have we finally found the one thing that unites all of PB? All of us love big old trees and hate to see them hacked down for no reason? Or is there still some dark-hearted PB Scot Nat that likes the idea of dead English oaks?

TheScreamingEagles · April 15

DougSeal said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DougSeal said:
Whoever said on here that Truss is suffering symptoms of PTSD had a point.
It was told to me by [redacted].
You monstrous tease!

We talk about her being PM for 49 days, but she resigned on day 44, and she spent the days 3 through to 13 on the Queen’s death and funeral, so she really was only PM for about 30 days.

Getting ousted as PM after a month has an impact.

Easier to blame the blob/deep state than yourself.

There’s only seven living people in the world that know about leaving Number 10 for the final time, it is a profound change to your life.

DougSeal · April 15

TheScreamingEagles said:

DougSeal said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DougSeal said:
Whoever said on here that Truss is suffering symptoms of PTSD had a point.
It was told to me by [redacted].
You monstrous tease!
We talk about her being PM for 49 days, but she resigned on day 44, and she spent the days 3 through to 13 on the Queen’s death and funeral, so she really was only PM for about 30 days.

Getting ousted as PM after a month has an impact.

Easier to blame the blob/deep state than yourself.

There’s only seven living people in the world that know about leaving Number 10 for the final time, it is a profound change to your life.

If I were to be pedantic there’s a few more than that…

rottenborough · April 15

Scott_xP said:
@SpencerHakimian

Boeing is trading down -3.5% this morning while Airbus is trading up +0.5% this morning on the news that China will not be buying from Boeing anymore.

The tariffs are turning out to be a historic punishment on the American people and a historic opportunity for non-American companies.

The definition of stupidity is doing something that hurts you and helps others.

https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/1912126455871320509

Apple only down a tad, which is insane given that their entire business model could be destroyed in just 90 days time. Or sooner depending on the mood in the Oval Office.

BlancheLivermore · April 15

kinabalu said:

Malmesbury said:

Leon said:

viewcode said:

Leon said:

bondegezou said:

Mexicanpete said:

Roger said:

Mexicanpete said:

Roger said:

boulay said:
Holy crap - posters don’t like a poster and happy he isn’t hear cluttering up the site then feel the need to come on and post about said poster and clutter up the site with posts about evil drunk/fascist poster.

Here’s an idea, if you don’t like Leon then skip his posts, don’t respond, don’t post about him not being here.

It’s like saying Beetlejuice/candyman three times then moaning when he shows up.

Tragic.
The tragedy is that you are the only person who has mentioned him!

You really MUST be obsessed
Boulay did get a dozen likes for his defence of the PB One (whoever that might be). Perhaps we could have a regular themed event on the lines of Fox and friends. Fash and friends?
Now that's funny! 12 'likes' for saying he likes Leon!

He should become an influencer
Either that or Leon has used his 12 identities to demonstrate his gratitude.
I see Leon's continued descent down the rabbit hole has reached the anti-vax stage this morning.
I see you’re a still a wearying cretin. I merely asked if there are genuine, evidence-based concerns about the vaccines, as I’ve heard concerning stories/facts from clever friends...
I don't know what the "concerning stories/facts from clever friends" are so cannot comment on the specifics, but I think I can speak to the general case. Any surgical/medical intervention may cause a problem and that problem may be mild or severe. Consequently the existence of a "concerning story/facts" is not unsurprising.

To deal with this we need to know the rate: not just "a bad thing happened" but "the number of bad things happening is X per 100,000 patients". Once that is known the risk can be assessed. So to work that out you'll need to get studies and look at them.

It's' probably best to avoid preprints (unreviewed studies put up to excite comment) and i don't know how to deal with Plos One

As the internet continues to colonise our lives, this phenomenon of "I’ve heard concerning stories/facts from clever friends" continues to grow and concern. We are built to operate in small tribes on the savannah and our pattern recognition is geared to that. Our risk assessment capacity in the 2020s is fucked.
No, this is simply not true

The reason I was able to work out it likely came from the lab two years before the rest of PB is because I did the OPPOSITE of this. Even as everyone else was being sheperded to the neat desirable non-Chinese-annoying non-science-embarrassing conclusion it 100% came from the wet market, I stepped away from the consensus and used my own eyes and brain, and worked out this *certainty* was ludicrous. That there was, at the very least, a high likelihood it came from the lab

Years later everyone now mumbles and agrees and shuffles about and says "anyway what does it matter we can't ever know for SURE"

Twats
In the case of vaccine reactions, you can either take the scientific, detailed evidence from the reporting of effects*. There’s a whole raft of papers on the subject.

Or you can use feelz from your mates.

The scientific results are that the reactions to the various COVID vaccines are multiple orders of magnitude less probable and less serious than COVID itself. When you factor in the probability of getting COVID (which is still out there), it stills ends up as vastly more risky *not* to be vaccinated.

*there is a system of reporting such effects in every country I can think of.
Nothing more boring than ignorami "challenging the consensus" on things they don't understand.

Do "ignorami" know that ignoramus is a Latin verb form, meaning 'we do not know', so it may be considered ignorant to pluralise it as if it were a Latin noun?

rottenborough · April 15

‪Glen O'Hara‬ ‪@gsoh31.bsky.social‬
·
41s
A thousand US student visa terminations. No-one's going to study there then.

https://bsky.app/profile/gsoh31.bsky.social/post/3lmuey6bflc2f

How big is Harvard's endowment fund? There are going to need it...

LilaZ · April 15

Leon said:
Have we finally found the one thing that unites all of PB? All of us love big old trees and hate to see them hacked down for no reason? Or is there still some dark-hearted PB Scot Nat that likes the idea of dead English oaks?

I can't abide a tree.

Stuartinromford · April 15

TheScreamingEagles said:

DougSeal said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DougSeal said:
Whoever said on here that Truss is suffering symptoms of PTSD had a point.
It was told to me by [redacted].
You monstrous tease!
We talk about her being PM for 49 days, but she resigned on day 44, and she spent the days 3 through to 13 on the Queen’s death and funeral, so she really was only PM for about 30 days.

Getting ousted as PM after a month has an impact.

Easier to blame the blob/deep state than yourself.

There’s only seven living people in the world that know about leaving Number 10 for the final time, it is a profound change to your life.

Horrible as it must be for her, and mega-awks as it must be for all around her, that trauma does show a creditable slice of self-awareness. Not much, but some.

Contrast with Trump, Vance and co. What they have done is already far worse (not just screwing up, but actively evil), but it's hard to imagine them noticing that anything has gone wrong at all.

Leon · April 15

rottenborough said:

‪Glen O'Hara‬ ‪@gsoh31.bsky.social‬
·
41s
A thousand US student visa terminations. No-one's going to study there then.

https://bsky.app/profile/gsoh31.bsky.social/post/3lmuey6bflc2f

How big is Harvard's endowment fund? There are going to need it...

The humiliation of haughty, arrogant, uberWoke Harvard will be quite enjoyable, however

Sunil_Prasannan · April 15

Leon said:
Have we finally found the one thing that unites all of PB? All of us love big old trees and hate to see them hacked down for no reason? Or is there still some dark-hearted PB Scot Nat that likes the idea of dead English oaks?

LEAF IT OUT!!

DougSeal · April 15

Talking of Truss, I caught up with an old University chum for the first time in nearly 30 years on Sunday. He editor of the Oxford Student (OUSU funded rival of Cherwell) and told me of some of the lickspittle surrounding Truss when we were there (we were in the same year as her). I vaguely remembered some of the stories from the time but didn't associate them with her until he reminded me. For once in his existence it appears Leon might be right about something.

DougSeal · April 15

rottenborough said:

‪Glen O'Hara‬ ‪@gsoh31.bsky.social‬
·
41s
A thousand US student visa terminations. No-one's going to study there then.

https://bsky.app/profile/gsoh31.bsky.social/post/3lmuey6bflc2f

How big is Harvard's endowment fund? There are going to need it...

$53.2 billion as of June 30 last year

https://www.hmc.harvard.edu/partners-performance/

rottenborough · April 15

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

‪Glen O'Hara‬ ‪@gsoh31.bsky.social‬
·
41s
A thousand US student visa terminations. No-one's going to study there then.

https://bsky.app/profile/gsoh31.bsky.social/post/3lmuey6bflc2f

How big is Harvard's endowment fund? There are going to need it...
The humiliation of haughty, arrogant, uberWoke Harvard will be quite enjoyable, however

Only if you don't care whether the US remains a free and democratic society.

Nigelb · April 15

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

‪Glen O'Hara‬ ‪@gsoh31.bsky.social‬
·
41s
A thousand US student visa terminations. No-one's going to study there then.

https://bsky.app/profile/gsoh31.bsky.social/post/3lmuey6bflc2f

How big is Harvard's endowment fund? There are going to need it...
The humiliation of haughty, arrogant, uberWoke Harvard will be quite enjoyable, however
Only if you don't care whether the US remains a free and democratic society.

Leon apparently wants the same in the UK - unless he was just shitposting last night ?

Peter_the_Punter · April 15

LilaZ said:

Leon said:
Have we finally found the one thing that unites all of PB? All of us love big old trees and hate to see them hacked down for no reason? Or is there still some dark-hearted PB Scot Nat that likes the idea of dead English oaks?
I can't abide a tree.

You have been twigged as a Russian troll.

ydoethur · April 15

Peter_the_Punter said:

LilaZ said:

Leon said:
Have we finally found the one thing that unites all of PB? All of us love big old trees and hate to see them hacked down for no reason? Or is there still some dark-hearted PB Scot Nat that likes the idea of dead English oaks?
I can't abide a tree.
You have been twigged as a Russian troll.

Branching out from vaccine conspiracies?

Nigelb · April 15

Peter_the_Punter said:

LilaZ said:

Leon said:
Have we finally found the one thing that unites all of PB? All of us love big old trees and hate to see them hacked down for no reason? Or is there still some dark-hearted PB Scot Nat that likes the idea of dead English oaks?
I can't abide a tree.
You have been twigged as a Russian troll.

Who clearly doesn't know our anthem Abide with Tree.

Nigelb · April 15

ydoethur said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

LilaZ said:

Leon said:
Have we finally found the one thing that unites all of PB? All of us love big old trees and hate to see them hacked down for no reason? Or is there still some dark-hearted PB Scot Nat that likes the idea of dead English oaks?
I can't abide a tree.
You have been twigged as a Russian troll.
Branching out from vaccine conspiracies?

We rooted those out in the last thread.

ydoethur · April 15

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

LilaZ said:

Leon said:
Have we finally found the one thing that unites all of PB? All of us love big old trees and hate to see them hacked down for no reason? Or is there still some dark-hearted PB Scot Nat that likes the idea of dead English oaks?
I can't abide a tree.
You have been twigged as a Russian troll.
Branching out from vaccine conspiracies?
We rooted those out in the last thread.

I bough to your wisdom, and there I will leaf it.

Peter_the_Punter · April 15

ydoethur said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

LilaZ said:

Leon said:
Have we finally found the one thing that unites all of PB? All of us love big old trees and hate to see them hacked down for no reason? Or is there still some dark-hearted PB Scot Nat that likes the idea of dead English oaks?
I can't abide a tree.
You have been twigged as a Russian troll.
Branching out from vaccine conspiracies?

Tree puns are too easy.

DougSeal · April 15

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

LilaZ said:

Leon said:
Have we finally found the one thing that unites all of PB? All of us love big old trees and hate to see them hacked down for no reason? Or is there still some dark-hearted PB Scot Nat that likes the idea of dead English oaks?
I can't abide a tree.
You have been twigged as a Russian troll.
Branching out from vaccine conspiracies?
We rooted those out in the last thread.

It’s a re-leaf when people appreciate tree puns

LilaZ · April 15

rottenborough said:

Scott_xP said:
@SpencerHakimian

Boeing is trading down -3.5% this morning while Airbus is trading up +0.5% this morning on the news that China will not be buying from Boeing anymore.

The tariffs are turning out to be a historic punishment on the American people and a historic opportunity for non-American companies.

The definition of stupidity is doing something that hurts you and helps others.

https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/1912126455871320509
Apple only down a tad, which is insane given that their entire business model could be destroyed in just 90 days time. Or sooner depending on the mood in the Oval Office.

Many of the Trump administration's moves must be viewed in a quite particular context. The US is in undeclared tech war against China, most especially in Artificial Intelligence, and Apple is being brought to heel as part of that, or so I believe. And this is partly my field of expertise.

Foxy · April 15

rcs1000 said:
On the previous thread there was a discussion about Covid vaccines, and their danger, etc.

And the funny bit is that I got involved in a "discussion" on this very issue on Substack only the other day. Someone claimed that Covid vaccines killed many times more people than the virus.

Now, there is a basic statistical point that it is entirely possible for Covid vaccines to kill more people than Covid, and yet for them still to be a net positive for mortality.

But I didn't want to go down that rabbit hole.

Instead, I posed the following question: If Covid vaccines killed many more people than the virus could, then any country that was isolated from the virus due to geography, but which had mass Covid vaccinations must have had much worse excess deaths than one that experienced the virus.

It is simply not possible for a country which did not get the virus, but did vaccinate everyone to have better outcomes, if the vaccine caused more death than the virus.

So how come Australia and New Zealand - which both have close to 100% Covid vaccination rates, but which never experienced Covid, due to closure of their borders - had no excess deaths in 2020 or 2021 at all?

There is a very well established connection between covid vaccinations and myocarditis, but there is also a much more common connection between covid infection and myocarditis, and more severe too.

Indeed it wouldn't surprise me if the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular complications of covid infection are bigger killers now than respiratory complications. There's an increased risk of vascular events for about 6 months after infection.

Foxy · April 15

DougSeal said:

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

LilaZ said:

Leon said:
Have we finally found the one thing that unites all of PB? All of us love big old trees and hate to see them hacked down for no reason? Or is there still some dark-hearted PB Scot Nat that likes the idea of dead English oaks?
I can't abide a tree.
You have been twigged as a Russian troll.
Branching out from vaccine conspiracies?
We rooted those out in the last thread.
It’s a re-leaf when people appreciate tree puns

I am sycamore of them! Please stop.

Andy_JS · April 15

"Reform a ‘racist and far-right’ party, says teaching union after Farage attack

NEU leader says union is ‘living rent free’ in Farage’s head after the politician accused him of ‘poisoning the minds of our kids’"

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2025/apr/15/uk-politics-latest-news-us-uk-trade-steel-keir-starmer-sudan-nigel-farage

BlancheLivermore · April 15

I had an intensely amusing argument about Brexit with an Irish manager at work several years back

He scoffed about the idea of sovereignty being a good reason. Except he couldn't say sovereignty

He said "sovereign tree"

I made fifteen awful tree puns in the following two minutes, and he didn't twig

ydoethur · April 15

BlancheLivermore said:
I had an intensely amusing argument about Brexit with an Irish manager at work several years back

He scoffed about the idea of sovereignty being a good reason. Except he couldn't say sovereignty

He said "sovereign tree"

I made fifteen awful tree puns in the following two minutes, and he didn't twig

Bud was it deliberate?

Leon · April 15

Nigelb said:

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

‪Glen O'Hara‬ ‪@gsoh31.bsky.social‬
·
41s
A thousand US student visa terminations. No-one's going to study there then.

https://bsky.app/profile/gsoh31.bsky.social/post/3lmuey6bflc2f

How big is Harvard's endowment fund? There are going to need it...
The humiliation of haughty, arrogant, uberWoke Harvard will be quite enjoyable, however
Only if you don't care whether the US remains a free and democratic society.
Leon apparently wants the same in the UK - unless he was just shitposting last night ?

I certainly wasn't shitposting, and I certainly don't want the whole Trump lunatic agenda in the UK, the tariffs are mad, the Putin-loving foreign policy is all over the place...

But the forceful extermination of Woke, DEI, cultural Marxism? The rigorous moves against fake asylum claims, against mass migration, against leftist lawfare, against activist judges, against those who are conspiring to destroy the West? - and I am afraid I cannot think of a better descrption - yes. I want all that

Pulpstar · April 15

LilaZ said:

rottenborough said:

Scott_xP said:
@SpencerHakimian

Boeing is trading down -3.5% this morning while Airbus is trading up +0.5% this morning on the news that China will not be buying from Boeing anymore.

The tariffs are turning out to be a historic punishment on the American people and a historic opportunity for non-American companies.

The definition of stupidity is doing something that hurts you and helps others.

https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/1912126455871320509
Apple only down a tad, which is insane given that their entire business model could be destroyed in just 90 days time. Or sooner depending on the mood in the Oval Office.
Many of the Trump administration's moves must be viewed in a quite particular context. The US is in undeclared tech war against China, most especially in Artificial Intelligence, and Apple is being brought to heel as part of that, or so I believe. And this is partly my field of expertise.

Watching my pension performance has reminded me of England cricket in the 90s recently.

rottenborough · April 15

LilaZ said:

rottenborough said:

Scott_xP said:
@SpencerHakimian

Boeing is trading down -3.5% this morning while Airbus is trading up +0.5% this morning on the news that China will not be buying from Boeing anymore.

The tariffs are turning out to be a historic punishment on the American people and a historic opportunity for non-American companies.

The definition of stupidity is doing something that hurts you and helps others.

https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/1912126455871320509
Apple only down a tad, which is insane given that their entire business model could be destroyed in just 90 days time. Or sooner depending on the mood in the Oval Office.
Many of the Trump administration's moves must be viewed in a quite particular context. The US is in undeclared tech war against China, most especially in Artificial Intelligence, and Apple is being brought to heel as part of that, or so I believe. And this is partly my field of expertise.

How is wrecking Apple going to help the US in the AI race?

Leon · April 15

DougSeal said:
Talking of Truss, I caught up with an old University chum for the first time in nearly 30 years on Sunday. He editor of the Oxford Student (OUSU funded rival of Cherwell) and told me of some of the lickspittle surrounding Truss when we were there (we were in the same year as her). I vaguely remembered some of the stories from the time but didn't associate them with her until he reminded me. For once in his existence it appears Leon might be right about something.

lol

It always ends up here

"So it turns out Leon was right about something"

Lab Leak, Covid, THING, China, THING, Nordstream, Biden's decline, on and on

DougSeal · April 15

Leon said:

DougSeal said:
Talking of Truss, I caught up with an old University chum for the first time in nearly 30 years on Sunday. He editor of the Oxford Student (OUSU funded rival of Cherwell) and told me of some of the lickspittle surrounding Truss when we were there (we were in the same year as her). I vaguely remembered some of the stories from the time but didn't associate them with her until he reminded me. For once in his existence it appears Leon might be right about something.
lol

It always ends up here

"So it turns out Leon was right about something"

Lab Leak, Covid, THING, China, THING, Nordstream, Biden's decline, on and on

Quite. Although in this case you are apparently wrong about one SPECIFIC aspect of the issue, but right in the general orientation. Her sandwiches don't come from Subway.

carnforth · April 15

DougSeal said:
Talking of Truss, I caught up with an old University chum for the first time in nearly 30 years on Sunday. He editor of the Oxford Student (OUSU funded rival of Cherwell) and told me of some of the lickspittle surrounding Truss when we were there (we were in the same year as her). I vaguely remembered some of the stories from the time but didn't associate them with her until he reminded me. For once in his existence it appears Leon might be right about something.

Lickspittle? Did you mean Tittle-tattle?

DougSeal · April 15

carnforth said:

DougSeal said:
Talking of Truss, I caught up with an old University chum for the first time in nearly 30 years on Sunday. He editor of the Oxford Student (OUSU funded rival of Cherwell) and told me of some of the lickspittle surrounding Truss when we were there (we were in the same year as her). I vaguely remembered some of the stories from the time but didn't associate them with her until he reminded me. For once in his existence it appears Leon might be right about something.
Lickspittle? Did you mean Tittle-tattle?

Something like that, yeah

occasionalranter · April 15

rcs1000 said:
On the previous thread there was a discussion about Covid vaccines, and their danger, etc.

And the funny bit is that I got involved in a "discussion" on this very issue on Substack only the other day. Someone claimed that Covid vaccines killed many times more people than the virus.

Now, there is a basic statistical point that it is entirely possible for Covid vaccines to kill more people than Covid, and yet for them still to be a net positive for mortality.

But I didn't want to go down that rabbit hole.

Instead, I posed the following question: If Covid vaccines killed many more people than the virus could, then any country that was isolated from the virus due to geography, but which had mass Covid vaccinations must have had much worse excess deaths than one that experienced the virus.

It is simply not possible for a country which did not get the virus, but did vaccinate everyone to have better outcomes, if the vaccine caused more death than the virus.

So how come Australia and New Zealand - which both have close to 100% Covid vaccination rates, but which never experienced Covid, due to closure of their borders - had no excess deaths in 2020 or 2021 at all?

Talking of NZ, John Burn Murdoch did great work, including of course graphs, on the very different experiences of NZ and Hong Kong as Omicron finally spread through their populations. HK death rates much much higher due to low vax rates among the elderly, also poor efficacy of sinovax or whatever the local offering was...

SonofContrarian · April 15

Leon said:

Nigelb said:

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

rottenborough said:

‪Glen O'Hara‬ ‪@gsoh31.bsky.social‬
·
41s
A thousand US student visa terminations. No-one's going to study there then.

https://bsky.app/profile/gsoh31.bsky.social/post/3lmuey6bflc2f

How big is Harvard's endowment fund? There are going to need it...
The humiliation of haughty, arrogant, uberWoke Harvard will be quite enjoyable, however
Only if you don't care whether the US remains a free and democratic society.
Leon apparently wants the same in the UK - unless he was just shitposting last night ?
I certainly wasn't shitposting, and I certainly don't want the whole Trump lunatic agenda in the UK, the tariffs are mad, the Putin-loving foreign policy is all over the place...

But the forceful extermination of Woke, DEI, cultural Marxism? The rigorous moves against fake asylum claims, against mass migration, against leftist lawfare, against activist judges, against those who are conspiring to destroy the West? - and I am afraid I cannot think of a better descrption - yes. I want all that

Sounds like a poor man's Piers Morgan views..😏

Scott_xP · April 15

*OPENAI BUILDING A X-LIKE SOCIAL NETWORK: VERGE
*OPENAI SOCIAL NETWORK IN EARLY STAGES: VERGE

Musk is going to completely lose his shit

vik · April 15

DougSeal said:
Whoever said on here that Truss is suffering symptoms of PTSD had a point.

I doubt she has any significant PTSD. One has to be mentally tough to be a politician.

She has become a MAGA grifter, which is extremely lucrative, and the things she's saying about the "deep state" are just things that her American MAGA fans want to her.

Malmesbury · April 15

Scott_xP said:
*OPENAI BUILDING A X-LIKE SOCIAL NETWORK: VERGE
*OPENAI SOCIAL NETWORK IN EARLY STAGES: VERGE

Musk is going to completely lose his shit

Suddenly pivoting into unrelated business is a bad sign, generally. Hmmmmm….

DougSeal · April 15

Scott_xP said:
*OPENAI BUILDING A X-LIKE SOCIAL NETWORK: VERGE
*OPENAI SOCIAL NETWORK IN EARLY STAGES: VERGE

Musk is going to completely lose his shit

All these social networks…

kinabalu · April 15

Why is my top concern (Inequality) never included in these "most important issue" poll choices? Immigration, by contrast, is always there. People moan that they are not allowed to moan that there's too many foreigners around the place, but the fact is you can tick that box if you want to. You can register that view in one of these polls. Get your (strident and unpleasant) voice heard. I can't do that. My box isn't there to be ticked. So my voice is not heard.

williamglenn · April 15

Scott_xP said:
*OPENAI BUILDING A X-LIKE SOCIAL NETWORK: VERGE
*OPENAI SOCIAL NETWORK IN EARLY STAGES: VERGE

Musk is going to completely lose his shit

Has he heard about LizT yet?

Malmesbury · April 15

occasionalranter said:

rcs1000 said:
On the previous thread there was a discussion about Covid vaccines, and their danger, etc.

And the funny bit is that I got involved in a "discussion" on this very issue on Substack only the other day. Someone claimed that Covid vaccines killed many times more people than the virus.

Now, there is a basic statistical point that it is entirely possible for Covid vaccines to kill more people than Covid, and yet for them still to be a net positive for mortality.

But I didn't want to go down that rabbit hole.

Instead, I posed the following question: If Covid vaccines killed many more people than the virus could, then any country that was isolated from the virus due to geography, but which had mass Covid vaccinations must have had much worse excess deaths than one that experienced the virus.

It is simply not possible for a country which did not get the virus, but did vaccinate everyone to have better outcomes, if the vaccine caused more death than the virus.

So how come Australia and New Zealand - which both have close to 100% Covid vaccination rates, but which never experienced Covid, due to closure of their borders - had no excess deaths in 2020 or 2021 at all?
Talking of NZ, John Burn Murdoch did great work, including of course graphs, on the very different experiences of NZ and Hong Kong as Omicron finally spread through their populations. HK death rates much much higher due to low vax rates among the elderly, also poor efficacy of sinovax or whatever the local offering was...

A couple of HK people I knew sent me some of the stuff they were seeing on their social media about the vaccines. Weird stuff claiming that Western vaccines couldn’t work on Chinese people because Chinese people were better or something like that.

Leon · April 15

DougSeal said:

Leon said:

DougSeal said:
Talking of Truss, I caught up with an old University chum for the first time in nearly 30 years on Sunday. He editor of the Oxford Student (OUSU funded rival of Cherwell) and told me of some of the lickspittle surrounding Truss when we were there (we were in the same year as her). I vaguely remembered some of the stories from the time but didn't associate them with her until he reminded me. For once in his existence it appears Leon might be right about something.
lol

It always ends up here

"So it turns out Leon was right about something"

Lab Leak, Covid, THING, China, THING, Nordstream, Biden's decline, on and on
Quite. Although in this case you are apparently wrong about one SPECIFIC aspect of the issue, but right in the general orientation. Her sandwiches don't come from Subway.

She’s a switch. It’s obvious

If you don’t know what a switch is, a quick kinkygoogle will sort you out

And now, White Lotus Season 3 - which is, interestingly, by a distance the best of them so far, to my mind

Foxy · April 15

vik said:

DougSeal said:
Whoever said on here that Truss is suffering symptoms of PTSD had a point.
I doubt she has any significant PTSD. One has to be mentally tough to be a politician.

She has become a MAGA grifter, which is extremely lucrative, and the things she's saying about the "deep state" are just things that her American MAGA fans want to her.

In her recent US tour weren't there 2 men and a dog in the audience? As indeed on Johnsons recent tour of Oz.

Our country is pretty brutal on former PMs. No one is interested.

SonofContrarian · April 15

Foxy said:

rcs1000 said:
On the previous thread there was a discussion about Covid vaccines, and their danger, etc.

And the funny bit is that I got involved in a "discussion" on this very issue on Substack only the other day. Someone claimed that Covid vaccines killed many times more people than the virus.

Now, there is a basic statistical point that it is entirely possible for Covid vaccines to kill more people than Covid, and yet for them still to be a net positive for mortality.

But I didn't want to go down that rabbit hole.

Instead, I posed the following question: If Covid vaccines killed many more people than the virus could, then any country that was isolated from the virus due to geography, but which had mass Covid vaccinations must have had much worse excess deaths than one that experienced the virus.

It is simply not possible for a country which did not get the virus, but did vaccinate everyone to have better outcomes, if the vaccine caused more death than the virus.

So how come Australia and New Zealand - which both have close to 100% Covid vaccination rates, but which never experienced Covid, due to closure of their borders - had no excess deaths in 2020 or 2021 at all?
There is a very well established connection between covid vaccinations and myocarditis, but there is also a much more common connection between covid infection and myocarditis, and more severe too.

Indeed it wouldn't surprise me if the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular complications of covid infection are bigger killers now than respiratory complications. There's an increased risk of vascular events for about 6 months after infection.

Australia and New Zealand probably initially escaped the worst (prior immunity to coronoviruses may have played a part too) due to their ridiculous border closure policies but that led to other disastrous economic and social problems..They still ended up with plenty of excess deaths in 2022/3 too..

vik · April 15

Foxy said:

vik said:

DougSeal said:
Whoever said on here that Truss is suffering symptoms of PTSD had a point.
I doubt she has any significant PTSD. One has to be mentally tough to be a politician.

She has become a MAGA grifter, which is extremely lucrative, and the things she's saying about the "deep state" are just things that her American MAGA fans want to her.
In her recent US tour weren't there 2 men and a dog in the audience? As indeed on Johnsons recent tour of Oz.

Our country is pretty brutal on former PMs. No one is interested.

I think she was one of the speakers at CPAC ? There must be some demand for her, if she got booked as one of the speakers.

Obviously, she's trying to hone her material to make it more appealing to Americans, so the size of the audiences might be increasing.

Foss · April 15

DougSeal said:

Scott_xP said:
*OPENAI BUILDING A X-LIKE SOCIAL NETWORK: VERGE
*OPENAI SOCIAL NETWORK IN EARLY STAGES: VERGE

Musk is going to completely lose his shit
All these social networks…

We must be approaching peak social network. Again.

And the not-X market already seems to be filled with the (declining) Blue Sky, so I wonder who they want to populate it?

Roger · April 15

rottenborough said:

‪Glen O'Hara‬ ‪@gsoh31.bsky.social‬
·
41s
A thousand US student visa terminations. No-one's going to study there then.

https://bsky.app/profile/gsoh31.bsky.social/post/3lmuey6bflc2f

How big is Harvard's endowment fund? There are going to need it...

38D

rcs1000 · April 15

LilaZ said:

Leon said:
Have we finally found the one thing that unites all of PB? All of us love big old trees and hate to see them hacked down for no reason? Or is there still some dark-hearted PB Scot Nat that likes the idea of dead English oaks?
I can't abide a tree.

I hate trees. Nasty, suspicious things. Always poking their branches in where they're not wanted. Undermining buildings, and roads, and pavements. Causing accidents due to being placed alongside roads where poor unsuspecting motorists and cyclists least expect to see them. Shedding trash for a month a year, that clogs up drains.

MattW · April 15

DougSeal said:

rottenborough said:

‪Glen O'Hara‬ ‪@gsoh31.bsky.social‬
·
41s
A thousand US student visa terminations. No-one's going to study there then.

https://bsky.app/profile/gsoh31.bsky.social/post/3lmuey6bflc2f

How big is Harvard's endowment fund? There are going to need it...
$53.2 billion as of June 30 last year

https://www.hmc.harvard.edu/partners-performance/

That will deliver something like 2-2.5% on a recurring basis to be taken out, whilst the capital also increases by inflation each year - I think that is the normal guideline.

So $1.5bn or thereabouts.

How much research funding is Trump threatening to stop if they won't follow his predilections?

For Columbia University, iirc he was threatening $400m per annum, which was essentially as much as their endowment income.

rcs1000 · April 15

SonofContrarian said:

Foxy said:

rcs1000 said:
On the previous thread there was a discussion about Covid vaccines, and their danger, etc.

And the funny bit is that I got involved in a "discussion" on this very issue on Substack only the other day. Someone claimed that Covid vaccines killed many times more people than the virus.

Now, there is a basic statistical point that it is entirely possible for Covid vaccines to kill more people than Covid, and yet for them still to be a net positive for mortality.

But I didn't want to go down that rabbit hole.

Instead, I posed the following question: If Covid vaccines killed many more people than the virus could, then any country that was isolated from the virus due to geography, but which had mass Covid vaccinations must have had much worse excess deaths than one that experienced the virus.

It is simply not possible for a country which did not get the virus, but did vaccinate everyone to have better outcomes, if the vaccine caused more death than the virus.

So how come Australia and New Zealand - which both have close to 100% Covid vaccination rates, but which never experienced Covid, due to closure of their borders - had no excess deaths in 2020 or 2021 at all?
There is a very well established connection between covid vaccinations and myocarditis, but there is also a much more common connection between covid infection and myocarditis, and more severe too.

Indeed it wouldn't surprise me if the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular complications of covid infection are bigger killers now than respiratory complications. There's an increased risk of vascular events for about 6 months after infection.
Australia and New Zealand probably initially escaped the worst (prior immunity to coronoviruses may have played a part too) due to their ridiculous border closure policies but that led to other disastrous economic and social problems..They still ended up with plenty of excess deaths in 2022/3 too..

Yes, those incredibly unpopular border closures with - checks - massive public support.

DecrepiterJohnL · April 15

TheScreamingEagles said:

DougSeal said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DougSeal said:
Whoever said on here that Truss is suffering symptoms of PTSD had a point.
It was told to me by [redacted].
You monstrous tease!
We talk about her being PM for 49 days, but she resigned on day 44, and she spent the days 3 through to 13 on the Queen’s death and funeral, so she really was only PM for about 30 days.

Getting ousted as PM after a month has an impact.

Easier to blame the blob/deep state than yourself.

There’s only seven living people in the world that know about leaving Number 10 for the final time, it is a profound change to your life.

There are any number of videos on YouTube about leaving Downing Street.

What a prime minister's last day looks like (Sky News, 3m45s)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=znSXUf61pKY

Outgoing British Prime Minister Cameron spends last day in office (Al Jazeera, 2 mins)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gSf550SiB0M

What do former Prime Ministers do once they leave Downing Street? (Sky News, 8 mins)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JIQw-NBUMRs

David Cameron's last day as Prime Minister (France 24, 2m45s)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L50Q0o5ZJ60

And many others. The Cockerill one is good but old and long.

On Liz Truss specifically:-
A Timeline of Liz Truss’s 45 Days as U.K. Prime Minister (WSJ 4 mins)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6GiJ8iqycLg

The interest of the various foreign broadcasters shows Britain still punches above her weight.

rcs1000 · April 15

Leon said:

DougSeal said:
Talking of Truss, I caught up with an old University chum for the first time in nearly 30 years on Sunday. He editor of the Oxford Student (OUSU funded rival of Cherwell) and told me of some of the lickspittle surrounding Truss when we were there (we were in the same year as her). I vaguely remembered some of the stories from the time but didn't associate them with her until he reminded me. For once in his existence it appears Leon might be right about something.
lol

It always ends up here

"So it turns out Leon was right about something"

Lab Leak, Covid, THING, China, THING, Nordstream, Biden's decline, on and on

Except you've been conclusively proven wrong about Nordstream: it was the Ukrainians, as the NY Times (and other) have documented.

stodge · April 15

Afternoon all

Divergent and convergent polls in Canada this morning - Mainstream Research has gone from a 2 point Conservative lead to a 1 point Liberal lead while Liaison and Nanos have slightly reduced the Liberal lead to 5 and 5.3 respectively from 6 and 7 respectively on yesterday's daily rolling poll.

Meanwhile in Australia, the weekly Essential poll has the Coalition and Labor effectively tied (the Coalition up 32-31) with the 2pp vote having Labor ahead 50-45. Plenty of polling evidence Liberal leader Dutton's pro-Trump comments are coming back to haunt him among Australian voters.

Sunil_Prasannan · April 15

Leon said:

DougSeal said:
Talking of Truss, I caught up with an old University chum for the first time in nearly 30 years on Sunday. He editor of the Oxford Student (OUSU funded rival of Cherwell) and told me of some of the lickspittle surrounding Truss when we were there (we were in the same year as her). I vaguely remembered some of the stories from the time but didn't associate them with her until he reminded me. For once in his existence it appears Leon might be right about something.
lol

It always ends up here

"So it turns out Leon was right about something"

Lab Leak, Covid, THING, China, THING, Nordstream, Biden's decline, on and on

You told us the other day the capital of Kazakhstan is still called Nur-Sultan! It reverted to Astana in 2022.

MattW · April 15

vik said:

DougSeal said:
Whoever said on here that Truss is suffering symptoms of PTSD had a point.
I doubt she has any significant PTSD. One has to be mentally tough to be a politician.

She has become a MAGA grifter, which is extremely lucrative, and the things she's saying about the "deep state" are just things that her American MAGA fans want to her.

In her recent US tour weren't there 2 men and a dog in the audience? As indeed on Johnsons recent tour of Oz.

Our country is pretty brutal on former PMs. No one is interested.

She gets £115k per annum for public life thingummies, as I understand it, for life.

Stuartinromford · April 15

MattW said:

DougSeal said:

rottenborough said:

‪Glen O'Hara‬ ‪@gsoh31.bsky.social‬
·
41s
A thousand US student visa terminations. No-one's going to study there then.

https://bsky.app/profile/gsoh31.bsky.social/post/3lmuey6bflc2f

How big is Harvard's endowment fund? There are going to need it...
$53.2 billion as of June 30 last year

https://www.hmc.harvard.edu/partners-performance/
That will deliver something like 2-2.5% on a recurring basis to be taken out, whilst the capital also increases by inflation each year - I think that is the normal guideline.

So $1.5bn or thereabouts.

How much research funding is Trump threatening to stop if they won't follow his predilections?

For Columbia University, iirc he was threatening $400m per annum, which was essentially as much as their endowment income.

About $2 billion, according to the Beeb;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz01y9gkdm3o

Whether that's per year, or in total, doesn't seem clear from the reporting. Seriously difficult to manage, but probably not impossible. I suspect Harvard will still be doing what it does as smugly as ever when Trump and Vance are only appearing in "a warning from history" documentaries.

BlancheLivermore · April 15

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Leon said:

DougSeal said:
Talking of Truss, I caught up with an old University chum for the first time in nearly 30 years on Sunday. He editor of the Oxford Student (OUSU funded rival of Cherwell) and told me of some of the lickspittle surrounding Truss when we were there (we were in the same year as her). I vaguely remembered some of the stories from the time but didn't associate them with her until he reminded me. For once in his existence it appears Leon might be right about something.
lol

It always ends up here

"So it turns out Leon was right about something"

Lab Leak, Covid, THING, China, THING, Nordstream, Biden's decline, on and on
You told us the other day the capital of Kazakhstan is still called Nur-Sultan! It reverted to Astana in 2022.

It's clear that you think you have a point here

https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5177349/#Comment_5177349

TimS · April 15

MattW said:

DougSeal said:

rottenborough said:

‪Glen O'Hara‬ ‪@gsoh31.bsky.social‬
·
41s
A thousand US student visa terminations. No-one's going to study there then.

https://bsky.app/profile/gsoh31.bsky.social/post/3lmuey6bflc2f

How big is Harvard's endowment fund? There are going to need it...
$53.2 billion as of June 30 last year

https://www.hmc.harvard.edu/partners-performance/
That will deliver something like 2-2.5% on a recurring basis to be taken out, whilst the capital also increases by inflation each year - I think that is the normal guideline.

So $1.5bn or thereabouts.

How much research funding is Trump threatening to stop if they won't follow his predilections?

For Columbia University, iirc he was threatening $400m per annum, which was essentially as much as their endowment income.

The Harvard endowment apparently returns an average of over 9% per annum, consistently. It’s one of the case studies in Piketty’s capital in the 20th century.

Sunil_Prasannan · April 15

BlancheLivermore said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Leon said:

DougSeal said:
Talking of Truss, I caught up with an old University chum for the first time in nearly 30 years on Sunday. He editor of the Oxford Student (OUSU funded rival of Cherwell) and told me of some of the lickspittle surrounding Truss when we were there (we were in the same year as her). I vaguely remembered some of the stories from the time but didn't associate them with her until he reminded me. For once in his existence it appears Leon might be right about something.
lol

It always ends up here

"So it turns out Leon was right about something"

Lab Leak, Covid, THING, China, THING, Nordstream, Biden's decline, on and on
You told us the other day the capital of Kazakhstan is still called Nur-Sultan! It reverted to Astana in 2022.
It's clear that you think you have a point here

https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5177349/#Comment_5177349

I do indeed!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astana

Initially founded as Akmoly in 1830, the city was later renamed Akmolinsk, Tselinograd, and Akmola before adopting the name Astana in 1998, which means "capital city" in Kazakh.[15] In 2019, the city briefly adopted the name Nur-Sultan in honor of former president Nursultan Nazarbayev, but it returned to the name Astana in 2022.

MattW · April 15

Update on Orphan Shares.

I asked the other day week about dealing with shares that has reappeared in a parent's estate after we thought it was all wrapped up.

It seems that Sharegift - sharegift.org - offer an administratively easy way, avoiding me needing to get into accountants and solicitors, of aggregating lots of small and orphan shareholdings together, selling them, and of donating them to a charity of my choice. They have free service agreements with the various parties involved.

With (I think) no tax implications as charity donations are tax free.

https://www.sharegift.org/

They have done just under £60m of donations in this way since 1996.

BlancheLivermore · April 15

Sunil_Prasannan said:

BlancheLivermore said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Leon said:

DougSeal said:
Talking of Truss, I caught up with an old University chum for the first time in nearly 30 years on Sunday. He editor of the Oxford Student (OUSU funded rival of Cherwell) and told me of some of the lickspittle surrounding Truss when we were there (we were in the same year as her). I vaguely remembered some of the stories from the time but didn't associate them with her until he reminded me. For once in his existence it appears Leon might be right about something.
lol

It always ends up here

"So it turns out Leon was right about something"

Lab Leak, Covid, THING, China, THING, Nordstream, Biden's decline, on and on
You told us the other day the capital of Kazakhstan is still called Nur-Sultan! It reverted to Astana in 2022.
It's clear that you think you have a point here

https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5177349/#Comment_5177349
I do indeed!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astana

Initially founded as Akmoly in 1830, the city was later renamed Akmolinsk, Tselinograd, and Akmola before adopting the name Astana in 1998, which means "capital city" in Kazakh.[15] In 2019, the city briefly adopted the name Nur-Sultan in honor of former president Nursultan Nazarbayev, but it returned to the name Astana in 2022.

Leon called it Astana in the comment I just posted

I had to step in so that you wouldn't feel compelled to repost the exact same thing for the next decade

You have form

kinabalu · April 15

rcs1000 said:

LilaZ said:

Leon said:
Have we finally found the one thing that unites all of PB? All of us love big old trees and hate to see them hacked down for no reason? Or is there still some dark-hearted PB Scot Nat that likes the idea of dead English oaks?
I can't abide a tree.
I hate trees. Nasty, suspicious things. Always poking their branches in where they're not wanted. Undermining buildings, and roads, and pavements. Causing accidents due to being placed alongside roads where poor unsuspecting motorists and cyclists least expect to see them. Shedding trash for a month a year, that clogs up drains.

Block the light also if they stand in the wrong place.

Omnium · April 15

rcs1000 said:

LilaZ said:

Leon said:
Have we finally found the one thing that unites all of PB? All of us love big old trees and hate to see them hacked down for no reason? Or is there still some dark-hearted PB Scot Nat that likes the idea of dead English oaks?
I can't abide a tree.
I hate trees. Nasty, suspicious things. Always poking their branches in where they're not wanted. Undermining buildings, and roads, and pavements. Causing accidents due to being placed alongside roads where poor unsuspecting motorists and cyclists least expect to see them. Shedding trash for a month a year, that clogs up drains.

I'd quite like to negotiate a truce in the tree war against my car. Whereas the ongoing war with old feathers I'm sorry to say will have to continue.

Howdy, Stranger!

Quick Links

Categories

The Trump impact? – politicalbetting.com

Comments