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Political betting is back in the news – politicalbetting.com
Political betting is back in the news – politicalbetting.com
A former Conservative MP, senior Conservative aides and a Conservative member of the Welsh parliament have all been charged by the Gambling Commission with criminal cheating, after placing bets on the date of the general election with insider knowledgewww.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025…
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Having said that, I bet it's happened as long as there have been betting markets. The Internet probably makes it a little easier to do so anonymously, though...
Mind, he was so bad at political management he usually lost both the vote and the bet anyway.
The President, having launched a global trade war, feted in the Oval Office a Central American dictator who runs a mega-prison known for starvation and torture - a prison to which our government has, by its own admission, sent at least one person "in error."
They disappeared a man without a single criminal charge who's lived and worked here for 15 years - who was alleged to be a member of a gang based in a state he never lived by one anonymous informant. No other evidence. No trial. No conviction. Nothing but a legal order that he not be deported to El Salvador, where he's now serving a life sentence.
The Supreme Court just ruled, without any noted dissent, that the government must facilitate the man's release.
But Trump and his dictator friend said no. They laughed. They mocked the journalist who asked whether they'd abide by the Court's order. The Attorney General, the Secretary of State, and the White House Deputy Chief all lied about the facts of the case. Then the President repeated his proposal to send American citizens to the dictator's prison, and asked him to build five more.
The same day we found out that the government knowingly disappeared a PhD student for nothing but an op-ed, a man's 19-year old son who agents admitted was the wrong kid, and a visa-holding Russian scientist at Harvard who forgot to declare frog embryos at the border.
But: it's all breaking through. It's getting more coverage. More people are paying attention. More elected Democrats are speaking up. More conservative pundits and legal scholars are speaking up. Even Joe Rogan thinks it's bullshit.
Now we have to keep pushing. This is much bigger than immigration or deportation policy - this is about whether we live in a free country or a police state. It's the whole ballgame.
https://x.com/jonfavs/status/1911995867407827204
Immigration: +4%
Jobs: -15%
Foreign Affairs: -16%
Civil Rights: -17%
Trade: -22%
Inflation: -29%
YouGov / Apr 9, 2025 / n=1000
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1911905596133036148
Because at the moment his inflationary policies haven't really kicked off.
“The officers grabbed him and two other boys right at the entrance to our building. One said, ‘No, he’s not the one,’ like they were looking for someone else. But the other said, ‘Take him anyway.’ “
https://x.com/JayinKyiv/status/1911784481465245987
Trump is apparently considering sanctioning Ukrainian government officials to force them to sign over Ukraine's oil, gas, minerals and infrastructure.
On Betfair they were at 1.5 for most seats yesterday, when they should be down near 1.2 IMHO.
Good morning, everybody.
The whole effect made him look like a refugee from a charity shop.
Uh oh, just had a knock at the door.
As with many people the world over, it's always Someone Else's Fault.
Over tight suit, with deliberate undersizing in an attempt to emphasise the torso.
One thing he got right was the black* shirt, as the prime function of a suit is to direct the gaze to the wearers face and with a high contrast face this works.
*right in so many ways...
https://x.com/dieworkwear/status/1912027638706979037?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
I haven't given up on the US just yet. Though while the current administration is in power, it's actively hostile towards other democracies.
No, we can't visit them
However a caution (and possibly a note to employers?) is all that is needed rather than prosecutions, they are unlikely to ever repeat the offence.
Indeed the Gambling Commission's position paper on cheating would not even get to the caution level, this is their action for use of restriced information:
"The Commission would have concerns in this area.
In most cases, the appropriate form of sanction
would be through the Sports Body or through the
employer, combined with the betting operator
refusing the bet under contractual terms.
The Commission may consider taking action to void a bet."
https://assets.ctfassets.net/j16ev64qyf6l/4KPgzbWpVpd5ZPsE444S9F/f4c8a91df1d3e578d698a6fbd24c5a55/Misuse-of-inside-information.pdf
Prosecutions are also a waste of court and legal time, it will be hard to prove and I suspect if defendents push it they stand a good chance of acquittal.
* Note to PB pedants. Please don't correct me with fact
- punishment
- justice for the aggrieved parties
- publicly making the law plain, and the consequences for breaking it
- etc
In this case, the accusation is that inside information was used to rig a market. One area that is quite good in UK law is that (despite various attempts to claim it is limited) this principle has been applied to just about any market.
What is the point of regulatory bodies establishing guidelines if we don't follow them?
If they had traded shares (say) they would be in the shit. Why should a betting market be different?
Wrongly identified as a terrorist by US morons who don’t care who they deport. “Get him back” say the courts. “We’re under no obligation” says the government despite the ruling placing them under obligation.
And now the denouement. “We can’t” says Trump because his bezzie in El Salvador refuses to “smuggle a terrorist” into the US.
Take note. In Trump’s America you have no rights.
Before 9am = 1
9am - 5pm = 10
5pm - 8pm = 30
8pm - 10pm = 75
10pm - 11pm = 200
11pm - midnight = 75
The Editor has been steamed? How interesting - adopting Finnish customs.
Causation may be a function of alcohol and people on their own consuming it.
If you had the above conversations and legislated appropriately then the courts role would be much lesser. In my view it suits politicians for the courts to take the heat. Laziness and cowardice.
REMAIN 48
Here’s an idea, if you don’t like Leon then skip his posts, don’t respond, don’t post about him not being here.
It’s like saying Beetlejuice/candyman three times then moaning when he shows up.
Tragic.
1) Trump has downsides but could there be an upside?
2) Does Trump mean what he has said, and how much of it?
3) What are the ways of diverting him early from the dictatorship agenda?
4) Can the ordinary instruments of power (Congress, courts, business, academia, media, the public) in the USA slow this down or stop it growing?
We are now at:
5) What are the possible ways of stopping this now it is a fait accompli; are there any?
And next perhaps:
6) Will there be free and fair elections next year/ever?
7) If and when the military get involved, which side will they be on?
8) When USA citizens apply for asylum in the UK/Canada/EU what will the response be?
They, nearly all, prefer a style where the smart ones triangulate and the idiots pontificate.
Triangulation - saying things that maximise popularity, while using the law to block the pieces of the rhetoric *you don't actually want*. So they can actually say different things to different groups. Bill Clinton was a master of this technique. Relying on the law to overturn policies is a key point for those in power, in this method.
Pontification - see Farage. Just say what the Head Count want to hear and ignore the reality.
Dissent about Deltics
Impassioned arguments about the brilliance of Radiohead’s Pyramid Song
Pineapple on Pizza
Not pledging fealty to battle woke
Ah yes, we do know. They are all grounds, as is looking funny or being in the wrong place at the wrong time.
Difficult to imagine a fictional representation of Trump and his coterie that could be more farcical than the reality though.
- 'Smelling of foreign food'
- 'Urinating in a public convenience'
- 'Coughing without due care and attention.'
- 'Walking on the cracks in the pavement'
- 'Walking in a loud shirt in a built-up area during the hours of darkness'
- 'Walking around with an offensive wife.'
- 'Possession of curly black hair and thick lips.'
The first one in this account also had a Court Order from 2019 affirming his right to stay aiui.
The incoherence of their arguments are now plain to see.
It was all about sovereignty......
The rare incidents of people who struggle with this are treated medically.
After the near death experience in Treasuries, it is now clear that US high yield debt markets have basically shut. That is going to lead to increasing problems for corporate finance across the board. Investment confidence is already low, but the actual ability to even transact is also in trouble. Demand for US goods has fallen sharply, US tourism is facing a major fall in overseas visitors. Multi national firms like Boeing can not offer accurate delivery times because their supply chains are being snarled up with tariffs. Inflation and interest rates are set to rise very sharply.
So, reduced demand, higher costs, reduced debt capacity. The only real question now is how deep the US depression will get, and to what degree that leads to civil unrest.
BTW, Britain should not be signing anything economic with the Trump regime unless it is literally the USA rolling over on every point of discussion.
I suggest this WRT Garcia and family: the democratic western nations all together offer asylum and a home to Garcia and family, with the proviso that any country (obvs USA and El Salvador) can initiate extradition proceedings for his return from wherever he is sent.
In El Salvador...
In 2016 it was not incoherent to prefer to be outside the 'ever closer union'. All you had to be was someone who did not wish to part of a movement towards further political union of most of Europe. Once the Euro and FoM and elected parliament were in place it was not possible to overlook the ultimate intention, even though Remain tried hard to do so.
A Norway/Swiss style Brexit solution was and still is the best available.
After they've had the show trials.
Deltics are only liked by people who know nothing about locomotives. Those who do love the likes of the Class 28, class 17 or the superb Fell 10100. Or anything produced at Derby.
https://www.computerweekly.com/news/366622533/Government-faces-claims-of-serious-cyber-security-and-data-protection-problems-in-One-Login-digital-ID
So, about that government ID card scheme?
Best leave it to the private sector, and jigsaw identification. Oh, hold on:-
Hertz confirms customer info, drivers' licenses stolen in data breach
...
The company says that the data varies per individual but could contain customers' names, contact information, date of birth, credit card information, driver's license information, and information related to workers' compensation claims.
In addition, Hertz says a small number may have had their Social Security numbers or government identification stolen.
https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/security/hertz-confirms-customer-info-drivers-licenses-stolen-in-data-breach/
I'm beginning to wonder if the hype about the devastating effects of the NI employer rise and minimum wage rise was overblown. Even though these have only just been implemented, employers have had 6 months to prepare.
Ta, but no.
The EU have explicitly ruled out a Swiss solution about twenty thousand times (they're trying to bully the Swiss into abandoning it too) and the Norwegian situation would last about five minutes as it is incompatible with any kind of sovereignty. "Government by fax" and all that.
When they replaced the diesels on a German E boat with Deltics, they had a problem. They were *too light* and *too powerful*. In the end, they had to change the propellors and add ballast. And the boat was about 10 knots faster, even then. Oh, and they had lots of spare space in the engine room.
People are free to ignore just ignore and get on with their lives in bliss. I suspect Leon would be quite happy to have the attention.