China is a place with vast riches and vast poverty. In that, it is like many countries, especially larger ones. Life in Manhattan or the City of London is very different from life in Whitley City or Jaywick. Fucker Carlson and some other pro-Russia @sshats like showing videos of central Moscow and St Petersberg as examples of how well Russians live; videos that are not exactly typical for the Russian population.
Тут или главбухом быть или двор мести. Here you're the chief accountant or you sweep the yard.
A Liberal Democrat MP has been refused entry to Hong Kong to visit her newborn grandson.
Wera Hobhouse, 65, flew to the Chinese region — a British territory until 1997 — on Thursday but was held at airport security, questioned and put on the first flight home five hours later.
She had her passport confiscated, was asked about her job and purpose of her trip, had her luggage searched and swabbed, and was then escorted to the boarding gate by four immigration officers.
Hobhouse said she had been “shocked” and was “very close to tears” when she was refused entry. She said she had not been able to hug her son who, was waiting for her in the arrivals hall. Hobhouse, elected in Bath in 2017, was given no explanation as to why her entry was refused but she believes it is because she is an MP.
She is a member of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, an international group of politicians that scrutinises Beijing’s approach to human rights and the rules-based order. She has criticised the crackdown on free speech in Hong Kong.
Members of a parliamentary committee were told they would be barred from Hong Kong when they announced they intended to visit in 2014 as part of an inquiry, but Hobhouse is the first MP known to have been refused entry on arrival since 1997.
What a load of whining bollocks. How many right wing people has the UK piously refused to allow into the country - including politicians - because they offended Establishment Woke Sensitivities
Honestly. Western Hypocrisy - especially on “human rights “ - is becoming one of our worst traits
Wera Hobhouse is MP for Bath. There is a lot of Bath-based wankery around 5G masts and Covid. More of a reason to bar her access.
"if the world’s population is ever to accept the mass vaccination campaign we need to free us from the pandemic, a full-frontal assault on conspiracy theories will be essential.
Instead of rebutting them, the Lib Dems have encouraged them. When 343 Bath residents objected to the council granting planning permission for the mast upgrade, Lib Dem councillors, with the support of Bath’s Lib Dem MP, Wera Hobhouse, decided to comply with the wishes of the dupes and cranks"
Oddly enough, Bath was one of the LD's worst results last year. Obviously, the Conservatives were flattened into third place behind Labour but the Greens polled strongly in fourth. Not one of Reform's better results either,
I have a friend who lives in Bath, natural Lib Dem voter and had the misfortune of going to Wera for help with a long running issue in which stuck with the state computer system says no. Lets just say if I want to see them explode all I need to do is casually mention her name.
Apparently the conversation went Tories, Tories, Tories, Tories, Brexit, Brexit, Brexit, Tories, (none of which was relevant to the issue at hand), followed by well what do you want me to do about in a huff...followed by given the run around.
Might explain some of the under-performance if that is typical (along with the weird 5G stuff).
Same thing happened with the Elizabeth Line too. Are the metrics the government uses to justify rail lines just fundamentally broken? Perhaps we should be building far more rail transport if the demand predictions are this out of whack.
Went to Ashington in January, back then Seaton Delaval was the only intermediate stop!
Good job you only collect routes and not possible stops on a route.
The bit I'm surprised at is that the usage estimates are so low - but I suspect that was gamed to fit an investment limit (£x0m is fine £x+y0m is going to be rejected).
Same thing happened with the Elizabeth Line too. Are the metrics the government uses to justify rail lines just fundamentally broken? Perhaps we should be building far more rail transport if the demand predictions are this out of whack.
Yea, they are. It's almost impossible to make a business case for rail under treasury green book rules.
Does the same go for new roads, or are road projects somehow different?
(The total lack of major roadbuilding in the north implies that the same problem exists there too tbh.)
As I understand it, the M25 usage exceeded all expectations too. Something to do with the Treasury looking at current demand but not at how a project might create demand. Before the M25, no-one in their right mind drove across London unless they had to.
I have certainly been on a couple of trips on the Elizabeth Line that I wouldn't have done in the past because it would have been technically possible, but a balls ache. It was fairly easy to get from Hampshire to Ilford for 9am for a parkrun, for example, and just involved a short tube hop from Waterloo to Tottenham Court Road to get on the Elizabeth Line which took me straight there. I had time to walk from Ilford station to Valentines Park and to stop for a coffee on the way.
The contract I'm doing at the moment is because I've found a decent cheap hotel right by Romford station and the commute on the Lizzie line is 40 minutes and completely painless.
Need to work out if I'm going down this week but I think I have to because a detonated a bomb under the project last week - the supplier did about 8 days of recorded (and unfinished incomplete) work while reporting 24 man days.
PB brains trust: Have any one you stayed over on the Isle of Wight? Any recommendations for a decent hotel for a 3-4 day break (a family of three)?
Depends on your criteria, as ever. Excellent, expensive places to stay: The Terrace, Ventnor; The Seaview, Seaview; The George, Yarmouth; Foresters Hall, Cowes; Royal Hotel, Ventnor. Mid-range: The Hambrough, Ventnor; the Wight Mouse, Chale, Wellington, Ventnor. Cheaper places to stay: The Brunswick, Shanklin; the Crab & Lobster, Bembridge; Luccombe Manor, Luccombe
If you are coming by car, check out the parking arrangements - a few of the above have limited options
Same thing happened with the Elizabeth Line too. Are the metrics the government uses to justify rail lines just fundamentally broken? Perhaps we should be building far more rail transport if the demand predictions are this out of whack.
Yep - the numbers from Manchester to London alone are wrong because demand is currently restricted by supply
It then didn't estimate extra demand and missed out all the benefits of extra capacity on the existing routes.
Problem is the costs look high because 30+ years of necessary but skipped improvements have had to be included in the HS2 costs.
PB brains trust: Have any one you stayed over on the Isle of Wight? Any recommendations for a decent hotel for a 3-4 day break (a family of three)?
Depends on your criteria, as ever. Excellent, expensive places to stay: The Terrace, Ventnor; The Seaview, Seaview; The George, Yarmouth; Foresters Hall, Cowes; Royal Hotel, Ventnor. Mid-range: The Hambrough, Ventnor; the Wight Mouse, Chale, Wellington, Ventnor. Cheaper places to stay: The Brunswick, Shanklin; the Crab & Lobster, Bembridge; Luccombe Manor, Luccombe
If you are coming by car, check out the parking arrangements - a few of the above have limited options
There is a Premier Inn which was very comfortable and with a good breakfast and on site free parking. Staff were nice. It is somewhere near the middle of the island, so you are a maximum of 7 miles from anywhere. The older style hotels are all a bit like Fawlty Towers!
Do we have extradition arrangements with Bangladesh?
And Good Morning all. Not quite as bright and sunny see today, but very pleasant.
Yes, but they’re Category 2 type B, so they have to provide more paperwork than, say, France, and the Secretary of State has to approve. AIUI.
Just a thought, occasioned by this thread. We have, AIUI, an extradition treaty with the USA. Would now be an appropriate time to review it? After all we don't want anyone chased over here for upsetting Trump, do we?
LOL, I asked ChatGPT to produce an image of a plushy Tim Apple holding Donald Trump by the balls but it wouldn't let me, but did produce this instead. Finally after all these years a new Apple product category.
The prime minister has told colleagues not to waste any time on feverish speculation about the intentions of the US president. This is sensible counsel after 10 days in which Typhoon Orange has wreaked havoc in global markets. Allies say he regards it as “a duty” to try to “get on with Trump”. “Don’t poke the beast” remains the watchword at Number 10, even as the beast rampages around chewing the legs off the global economy.
Ministers appear increasingly pessimistic about negotiating away the 10% “baseline” tariff that has been imposed on Britain as it has been on most countries. “Tariffs are here for good,” remarks an official. The current focus is on trying to contain the damage threatened by elevated 25% tariffs on cars, steel and aluminium. Sir Keir hopes to attract credit for throwing lifelines to vulnerable industries, as the government did yesterday...
Crisis can be an excuse to cower or it can be a spur to grasp opportunity. A growing number of Labour voices see an opening for the Starmer government to pivot towards Europe. The prime minister tells friends that the UK is being taken seriously by the rest of its continent in a way that it has not been for a decade. Trump, Ukraine and not treating the EU as an enemy have played roles in the rebuilding of bridges. But the fabled “reset” in relations with our closest neighbours has thus far produced more warm words than it has concrete agreements that could lift growth. To sense how the wind is shifting, keep a weather eye on the chancellor. In the run-up to next month’s important EU/UK summit, Ms Reeves has started using much sharper and more ambitious language about removing trade barriers with the union. “We’re getting more confident about how we talk about it in public,” says one cabinet member. Number 10 is wary of any move that might be depicted as “undoing Brexit”, but polling tells us that a chunky majority of Britons now devoutly wish that it could be undone. The perils posed to prosperity by Donald Trump make it more imperative to relieve the impediments to growth that Britain has inflicted upon itself.
“Keep calm and carry on” has served Sir Keir well in the opening phases of this crisis. Bigger, bolder moves will be demanded of him before it is over
For me, what is missing their is any indication that the Starmer Government has contingency plans to manage what may credibly happen, for example a bad scenario of Trump withdrawing all US forces from Europe at 3 months' notice.
Or to exploit opportunities we which may become available, for examples waves of researchers seeking to leave the USA because they are at risk of being detained and renditioned illegally by Trump's secret police - as is already happening.
The same may happen for US companies looking for a new base in a civilised country characterised by the rule of law.
The UK is still in many ways the most suitable new home for such companies or organisations. I can see something like Freedom House needing to leave the USA; in due course they will be targetted.
There are many other aspects which getting no perceptible attention from Starmer's Govt.
Tories and RefUK would be infinitely worse with their USA fetish, but Labour are not up to scratch.
I am still not seeing much evidence to dissuade me from the view that Reform has peaked.
Ist May may well answer that question
Ist May will generate big headlines... doubled vote since GE, hundreds of new councillors, councils controlled etc... so even if below expectations it will tend to accelerate the trend
The 1st May will be a good performance for Reform no doubt about it but that will in my view be their peak. Nothing is dissuading me from that view.
Also Farage wants to put DOGE into every council, so who will provide these services when they are destroyed and is talking up Trump’s disaster honestly a good strategy? They wisely backed nationalisation of British Steel but then they also have these weird policies too.
Reform are exposed as soon as they become serious as their platform is fundamentally undeliverable and unaffordable.
It is what struck me in rich parts of Asia, not many Teslas, lots of BYDs. Tesla stock was a sell regardless of Musk political antics. On my travels around the UK, I have notices lots of BYD dealerships popping up.
Thank goodness (most of) the little feckers can’t grow a moustache. The mullet/‘tache combo is very popular round my bit.
Several of my son’s late teen friends have started sporting moustaches of dubious quality. I have kept my silence on their choice of facial hair
There are certain pungent comparisons available but not many that are disapproving and contemptuous but not massively hostile.
Gary Glitter is a useful one for old men with dodgy Goaty beards, or pubic hair from the 1972 Joy of Sex.
Perhaps the best I can do for teenage 'taches is Zorro, but in the end it's usually whatever they think will impress the laydees.
And I'd far prefer that to having them hooning around in tosser-tanks with tuned exhausts. At least a moustache only embarrasses the person cultivating it.
The 1st May will be a good performance for Reform no doubt about it but that will in my view be their peak. Nothing is dissuading me from that view.
Also Farage wants to put DOGE into every council, so who will provide these services when they are destroyed and is talking up Trump’s disaster honestly a good strategy? They wisely backed nationalisation of British Steel but then they also have these weird policies too.
Reform are exposed as soon as they become serious as their platform is fundamentally undeliverable and unaffordable.
I thought you said they "had peaked"? Now you are saying they will peak in 2 weeks' time.
As of now, 31 people are known to have been killed in Sumy by the Russian ballistic missile strike. Among those killed were two children. My condolences to the families and loved ones… More than 84 people have been wounded, including 10 children. All of them are receiving the necessary assistance. https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1911374389746004111
The prime minister has told colleagues not to waste any time on feverish speculation about the intentions of the US president. This is sensible counsel after 10 days in which Typhoon Orange has wreaked havoc in global markets. Allies say he regards it as “a duty” to try to “get on with Trump”. “Don’t poke the beast” remains the watchword at Number 10, even as the beast rampages around chewing the legs off the global economy.
Ministers appear increasingly pessimistic about negotiating away the 10% “baseline” tariff that has been imposed on Britain as it has been on most countries. “Tariffs are here for good,” remarks an official. The current focus is on trying to contain the damage threatened by elevated 25% tariffs on cars, steel and aluminium. Sir Keir hopes to attract credit for throwing lifelines to vulnerable industries, as the government did yesterday...
Crisis can be an excuse to cower or it can be a spur to grasp opportunity. A growing number of Labour voices see an opening for the Starmer government to pivot towards Europe. The prime minister tells friends that the UK is being taken seriously by the rest of its continent in a way that it has not been for a decade. Trump, Ukraine and not treating the EU as an enemy have played roles in the rebuilding of bridges. But the fabled “reset” in relations with our closest neighbours has thus far produced more warm words than it has concrete agreements that could lift growth. To sense how the wind is shifting, keep a weather eye on the chancellor. In the run-up to next month’s important EU/UK summit, Ms Reeves has started using much sharper and more ambitious language about removing trade barriers with the union. “We’re getting more confident about how we talk about it in public,” says one cabinet member. Number 10 is wary of any move that might be depicted as “undoing Brexit”, but polling tells us that a chunky majority of Britons now devoutly wish that it could be undone. The perils posed to prosperity by Donald Trump make it more imperative to relieve the impediments to growth that Britain has inflicted upon itself.
“Keep calm and carry on” has served Sir Keir well in the opening phases of this crisis. Bigger, bolder moves will be demanded of him before it is over
For me, what is missing their is any indication that the Starmer Government has contingency plans to manage what may credibly happen, for example a bad scenario of Trump withdrawing all US forces from Europe at 3 months' notice.
Or to exploit opportunities we which may become available, for examples waves of researchers seeking to leave the USA because they are at risk of being detained and renditioned illegally by Trump's secret police - as is already happening.
The same may happen for US companies looking for a new base in a civilised country characterised by the rule of law.
The UK is still in many ways the most suitable new home for such companies or organisations. I can see something like Freedom House needing to leave the USA; in due course they will be targetted.
There are many other aspects which getting no perceptible attention from Starmer's Govt.
Tories and RefUK would be infinitely worse with their USA fetish, but Labour are not up to scratch.
I find this government rather odd. Starmer as a stated lifetime socialist was all about nationalisation of things when he ran for leadership and even after that. Now there is here something that is prime for nationalisation, but they are only sort of nationalising and I imagine the majority of the public could see this as for the greater good, but they are tip toeing around actually committing to nationalisation and also claiming they are going to try and find a private sector buyer (when last time the only option was the Chinese and now they have already ruled out any Chinese company from bidding).
I can't work out the logic politically or even economically.
Its like the unwillingness to find any extra fiver for a new super high tech Astra Zeneca facility in the North West.
The prime minister has told colleagues not to waste any time on feverish speculation about the intentions of the US president. This is sensible counsel after 10 days in which Typhoon Orange has wreaked havoc in global markets. Allies say he regards it as “a duty” to try to “get on with Trump”. “Don’t poke the beast” remains the watchword at Number 10, even as the beast rampages around chewing the legs off the global economy.
Ministers appear increasingly pessimistic about negotiating away the 10% “baseline” tariff that has been imposed on Britain as it has been on most countries. “Tariffs are here for good,” remarks an official. The current focus is on trying to contain the damage threatened by elevated 25% tariffs on cars, steel and aluminium. Sir Keir hopes to attract credit for throwing lifelines to vulnerable industries, as the government did yesterday...
Crisis can be an excuse to cower or it can be a spur to grasp opportunity. A growing number of Labour voices see an opening for the Starmer government to pivot towards Europe. The prime minister tells friends that the UK is being taken seriously by the rest of its continent in a way that it has not been for a decade. Trump, Ukraine and not treating the EU as an enemy have played roles in the rebuilding of bridges. But the fabled “reset” in relations with our closest neighbours has thus far produced more warm words than it has concrete agreements that could lift growth. To sense how the wind is shifting, keep a weather eye on the chancellor. In the run-up to next month’s important EU/UK summit, Ms Reeves has started using much sharper and more ambitious language about removing trade barriers with the union. “We’re getting more confident about how we talk about it in public,” says one cabinet member. Number 10 is wary of any move that might be depicted as “undoing Brexit”, but polling tells us that a chunky majority of Britons now devoutly wish that it could be undone. The perils posed to prosperity by Donald Trump make it more imperative to relieve the impediments to growth that Britain has inflicted upon itself.
“Keep calm and carry on” has served Sir Keir well in the opening phases of this crisis. Bigger, bolder moves will be demanded of him before it is over
For me, what is missing their is any indication that the Starmer Government has contingency plans to manage what may credibly happen, for example a bad scenario of Trump withdrawing all US forces from Europe at 3 months' notice.
Or to exploit opportunities we which may become available, for examples waves of researchers seeking to leave the USA because they are at risk of being detained and renditioned illegally by Trump's secret police - as is already happening.
The same may happen for US companies looking for a new base in a civilised country characterised by the rule of law.
The UK is still in many ways the most suitable new home for such companies or organisations. I can see something like Freedom House needing to leave the USA; in due course they will be targetted.
There are many other aspects which getting no perceptible attention from Starmer's Govt.
Tories and RefUK would be infinitely worse with their USA fetish, but Labour are not up to scratch.
To all appearances, Labour didn't have any contingency plans in case they were elected last GE.
The 1st May will be a good performance for Reform no doubt about it but that will in my view be their peak. Nothing is dissuading me from that view.
Also Farage wants to put DOGE into every council, so who will provide these services when they are destroyed and is talking up Trump’s disaster honestly a good strategy? They wisely backed nationalisation of British Steel but then they also have these weird policies too.
Reform are exposed as soon as they become serious as their platform is fundamentally undeliverable and unaffordable.
I thought you said they "had peaked"? Now you are saying they will peak in 2 weeks' time.
They have peaked. I suspect they will flatline now until the local elections and that will be it. Downhill from here.
The Trump love is still strong with this arsehole.
It's a tricky position he's in.
The "cutting woke waste" fairy is the only way anyone has of resolving the high tax/poor services dilemma that everyone is struggling with.
Once you have a Union Flag flying outside County Hall and rejigged planning policy so that Ed Milliband can overturn your solar farm refusals, what is the distinctively Reform way of running the county council?
If you look at recent polls, I would struggle to conclude that Reform hasn’t peaked. They’re now down on where they were a few weeks ago, even with the pollster that always puts them ahead.
The Trump love is still strong with this arsehole.
It's a tricky position he's in.
The "cutting woke waste" fairy is the only way anyone has of resolving the high tax/poor services dilemma that everyone is struggling with.
Once you have a Union Flag flying outside County Hall and rejigged planning policy so that Ed Milliband can overturn your solar farm refusals, what is the distinctively Reform way of running the county council?
For me, I am not sure “let’s cut councils more” is a popular move. Perhaps if they can link it to “woke” then they might gain traction but fundamentally that still doesn’t seem like a strategy to win a majority.
Labour is screwed though if Reform and the Tories make a deal.
I find this government rather odd. Starmer as a stated lifetime socialist was all about nationalisation of things when he ran for leadership and even after that. Now there is here something that is prime for nationalisation, but they are only sort of nationalising and I imagine the majority of the public could see this as for the greater good, but they are tip toeing around actually committing to nationalisation and also claiming they are going to try and find a private sector buyer (when last time the only option was the Chinese and now they have already ruled out any Chinese company from bidding).
I can't work out the logic politically or even economically.
Its like the unwillingness to find any extra fiver for a new super high tech AstraZeneca facility in the North West.
They have no theory of the world other than "do Thatcherism more politely" and "stupid Green stuff". Literally. The impression I got from "Taken as Red" and "Get In" is that they don't have any political theory other than crowd pleasing headlines and metropolitan elite nostrums. They think the machine works without their involvement, whereas it's a full-time job just trying to make sure the wheels don't come off.
Or, as I put it, they don't know how to fly the plane.
Same thing happened with the Elizabeth Line too. Are the metrics the government uses to justify rail lines just fundamentally broken? Perhaps we should be building far more rail transport if the demand predictions are this out of whack.
Yep - the numbers from Manchester to London alone are wrong because demand is currently restricted by supply
It then didn't estimate extra demand and missed out all the benefits of extra capacity on the existing routes.
Problem is the costs look high because 30+ years of necessary but skipped improvements have had to be included in the HS2 costs.
"Physicists, brought up on a diet of astounding theories and successful models, have the ability to distinguish a theory from a model and a good model from a bad one. Economists for the most part have never seen a genuine theory, and so discrimination is harder." - Emanuel Derman
PB brains trust: Have any one you stayed over on the Isle of Wight? Any recommendations for a decent hotel for a 3-4 day break (a family of three)?
Depends on your criteria, as ever. Excellent, expensive places to stay: The Terrace, Ventnor; The Seaview, Seaview; The George, Yarmouth; Foresters Hall, Cowes; Royal Hotel, Ventnor. Mid-range: The Hambrough, Ventnor; the Wight Mouse, Chale, Wellington, Ventnor. Cheaper places to stay: The Brunswick, Shanklin; the Crab & Lobster, Bembridge; Luccombe Manor, Luccombe
If you are coming by car, check out the parking arrangements - a few of the above have limited options
I stayed in the Trouville Hotel in Sandown for a week, which was fine and on the seafront but quite traditional. You can get there by rail - I cycled across the island, which was fine. There are quite a few rail stations.
Currently the Trouville looks like £100-120 a night, before you exercise your discounting skills.
The Trump love is still strong with this arsehole.
It's a tricky position he's in.
The "cutting woke waste" fairy is the only way anyone has of resolving the high tax/poor services dilemma that everyone is struggling with.
Once you have a Union Flag flying outside County Hall and rejigged planning policy so that Ed Milliband can overturn your solar farm refusals, what is the distinctively Reform way of running the county council?
The Trump love is still strong with this arsehole.
It's a tricky position he's in.
The "cutting woke waste" fairy is the only way anyone has of resolving the high tax/poor services dilemma that everyone is struggling with.
Once you have a Union Flag flying outside County Hall and rejigged planning policy so that Ed Milliband can overturn your solar farm refusals, what is the distinctively Reform way of running the county council?
That he still sees Musk's widely discredited efforts in government as any kind of template to be followed, ought to be disqualifying in itself.
As of now, 31 people are known to have been killed in Sumy by the Russian ballistic missile strike. Among those killed were two children. My condolences to the families and loved ones… More than 84 people have been wounded, including 10 children. All of them are receiving the necessary assistance. https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1911374389746004111
If you are still SMO-curious there was an interesting article in the Times last Thursday. Replete with many MoD leaks in the "Journalism is the First Draft of History" style of that recent NYT article. Though not as well written obviously. Everything that went wrong was the fault of the Ukrainians (unreliable liars) and the Americans (trigger happy cowboys). Everything that went right was to the eternal credit of the British (principled yet pragmatic strategic visionaries).
Everybody involved seems to want their version of events on the record lately.
I find this government rather odd. Starmer as a stated lifetime socialist was all about nationalisation of things when he ran for leadership and even after that. Now there is here something that is prime for nationalisation, but they are only sort of nationalising and I imagine the majority of the public could see this as for the greater good, but they are tip toeing around actually committing to nationalisation and also claiming they are going to try and find a private sector buyer (when last time the only option was the Chinese and now they have already ruled out any Chinese company from bidding).
I can't work out the logic politically or even economically.
Its like the unwillingness to find any extra fiver for a new super high tech AstraZeneca facility in the North West.
They have no theory of the world other than "do Thatcherism more politely" and "stupid Green stuff". Literally. The impression I got from "Taken as Red" and "Get In" is that they don't have any political theory other than crowd pleasing headlines and metropolitan elite nostrums. They think the machine works without their involvement, whereas it's a full-time job just trying to make sure the wheels don't come off.
Or, as I put it, they don't know how to fly the plane.
There is a 'thing' though, shared in my opinion by the British civil service, and to be fair by some within the Tory Party, that Britain's national interest is bad and dirty, and that actually the admirable course of action is to kick the lumpen proles of Blighty in the gonads and call it high-minded fairness and competition.
I think it went into overdrive after Brexit, when in my opinion, a great many people in administration decided that Britain's national interest was Brexit's national interest, which they actively loathed, so they would do all they could to undermine the country. The long term plan being to return us suitably chastened to the bosom of Europe.
A more prosaic possibility or perhaps added dimension is that a lot of people are at it.
Either way, they all have to go, the Labour Party of course but a complete gutting of institutions is required too.
If you look at recent polls, I would struggle to conclude that Reform hasn’t peaked. They’re now down on where they were a few weeks ago, even with the pollster that always puts them ahead.
The graph on the Wki page shows they have dropped back slightly. But they are now ahead as Labour have dropped back more. The LibDems and Greens are up a bit, the Tories stabilised.
I wouldn't call that a "peak" though, just a temporary movement in the numbers. They are likely to get good headlines out of the Locals and that will lead to better opinion poll scoring.
At the moment, the voters seem willing to vote for a party they know f*** all about. The peak will come when they find out how shit they are at running local councils and when there are a lot more Reform office holders to be exposed as grufters and racists
The Trump love is still strong with this arsehole.
It's a tricky position he's in.
The "cutting woke waste" fairy is the only way anyone has of resolving the high tax/poor services dilemma that everyone is struggling with.
Once you have a Union Flag flying outside County Hall and rejigged planning policy so that Ed Milliband can overturn your solar farm refusals, what is the distinctively Reform way of running the county council?
Do we have a general thought for "Reform success" at the coming local elections?
I'm sticking to my "500 or more" will be OK - for them, but perhaps not the Councils they win, if any.
The Trump love is still strong with this arsehole.
It's a tricky position he's in.
The "cutting woke waste" fairy is the only way anyone has of resolving the high tax/poor services dilemma that everyone is struggling with.
Once you have a Union Flag flying outside County Hall and rejigged planning policy so that Ed Milliband can overturn your solar farm refusals, what is the distinctively Reform way of running the county council?
Do we have a general thought for "Reform success" at the coming local elections.
I'm sticking to my "500 or more" will be OK - for them, but perhaps not the Councils they win, if any.
I'm not sure it matters. Even if they do appreciably worse than their opinion polling suggests they should, the headline will be about hundreds of new councillors. I am not sure 200 or 500 will make much of a difference as they can spin it as "we came from nowhere"
As of now, 31 people are known to have been killed in Sumy by the Russian ballistic missile strike. Among those killed were two children. My condolences to the families and loved ones… More than 84 people have been wounded, including 10 children. All of them are receiving the necessary assistance. https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1911374389746004111
If you are still SMO-curious there was an interesting article in the Times last Thursday. Replete with many MoD leaks in the "Journalism is the First Draft of History" style of that recent NYT article. Though not as well written obviously. Everything that went wrong was the fault of the Ukrainians (unreliable liars) and the Americans (trigger happy cowboys). Everything that went right was to the eternal credit of the British (principled yet pragmatic strategic visionaries).
Everybody involved seems to want their version of events on the record lately.
The UK centric spin sounds almost as imaginative as the US version.
Double tap attack, btw, using anti-personnel warheads. Very special.
The Trump love is still strong with this arsehole.
It's a tricky position he's in.
The "cutting woke waste" fairy is the only way anyone has of resolving the high tax/poor services dilemma that everyone is struggling with.
Once you have a Union Flag flying outside County Hall and rejigged planning policy so that Ed Milliband can overturn your solar farm refusals, what is the distinctively Reform way of running the county council?
Do you think that Farage knows that Councils are essentially providers of various social services? And that this provision is legally mandated?
So *keeping* bin collection is going to be a major issue.
In my area, so of the richer people are already contracting with various companies to do extra bin collection (council is once every two weeks)
If you look at recent polls, I would struggle to conclude that Reform hasn’t peaked. They’re now down on where they were a few weeks ago, even with the pollster that always puts them ahead.
The graph on the Wki page shows they have dropped back slightly. But they are now ahead as Labour have dropped back more. The LibDems and Greens are up a bit, the Tories stabilised.
I wouldn't call that a "peak" though, just a temporary movement in the numbers. They are likely to get good headlines out of the Locals and that will lead to better opinion poll scoring.
At the moment, the voters seem willing to vote for a party they know f*** all about. The peak will come when they find out how shit they are at running local councils and when there are a lot more Reform office holders to be exposed as grufters and racists
That’s a good response and I think you’ve convinced me that I am wrong.
They will get a rise of some kind post election - because whenever a party is perceived to win they seem to go up.
But the thrust of my view I still think is right. Reform will peak and then it will be downhill.
Labour will benefit from that and much will be driven by their moves on immigration. If they cut that, it will be a different conversation IMHO.
The Trump love is still strong with this arsehole.
It's a tricky position he's in.
The "cutting woke waste" fairy is the only way anyone has of resolving the high tax/poor services dilemma that everyone is struggling with.
Once you have a Union Flag flying outside County Hall and rejigged planning policy so that Ed Milliband can overturn your solar farm refusals, what is the distinctively Reform way of running the county council?
Do you think that Farage knows that Councils are essentially providers of various social services? And that this provision is legally mandated?
So *keeping* bin collection is going to be a major issue.
In my area, so of the richer people are already contracting with various companies to do extra bin collection (council is once every two weeks)
social services may be legally mandated but doesn't stop a slash and burn Reform DOGE from cuts.
PB brains trust: Have any one you stayed over on the Isle of Wight? Any recommendations for a decent hotel for a 3-4 day break (a family of three)?
Depends on your criteria, as ever. Excellent, expensive places to stay: The Terrace, Ventnor; The Seaview, Seaview; The George, Yarmouth; Foresters Hall, Cowes; Royal Hotel, Ventnor. Mid-range: The Hambrough, Ventnor; the Wight Mouse, Chale, Wellington, Ventnor. Cheaper places to stay: The Brunswick, Shanklin; the Crab & Lobster, Bembridge; Luccombe Manor, Luccombe
If you are coming by car, check out the parking arrangements - a few of the above have limited options
I stayed in the Trouville Hotel in Sandown for a week, which was fine and on the seafront but quite traditional. You can get there by rail - I cycled across the island, which was fine. There are quite a few rail stations.
Currently the Trouville looks like £100-120 a night, before you exercise your discounting skills.
Same thing happened with the Elizabeth Line too. Are the metrics the government uses to justify rail lines just fundamentally broken? Perhaps we should be building far more rail transport if the demand predictions are this out of whack.
Yep - the numbers from Manchester to London alone are wrong because demand is currently restricted by supply
It then didn't estimate extra demand and missed out all the benefits of extra capacity on the existing routes.
Problem is the costs look high because 30+ years of necessary but skipped improvements have had to be included in the HS2 costs.
There have been many improvements to the main Manchester to London route over the last thirty years. The entire West Coast Main Line Upgrade package was near the start of that period; it cost ten times over budget, took years longer than expected, and did not deliver everything (though line speed and capacity was increased).
But the idea that improvements were 'skipped' is ridiculous.
But the WCML Upgrade package shows exactly why HS2 is needed, and why the "just improve the existing route!" are wrong.
(I won't even mention the "reopen the Great Central!" nutters, as they are utterly clueless fuckwits who should be ut in stocks and laughed at by passers-by...
PB brains trust: Have any one you stayed over on the Isle of Wight? Any recommendations for a decent hotel for a 3-4 day break (a family of three)?
Depends on your criteria, as ever. Excellent, expensive places to stay: The Terrace, Ventnor; The Seaview, Seaview; The George, Yarmouth; Foresters Hall, Cowes; Royal Hotel, Ventnor. Mid-range: The Hambrough, Ventnor; the Wight Mouse, Chale, Wellington, Ventnor. Cheaper places to stay: The Brunswick, Shanklin; the Crab & Lobster, Bembridge; Luccombe Manor, Luccombe
If you are coming by car, check out the parking arrangements - a few of the above have limited options
I stayed in the Trouville Hotel in Sandown for a week, which was fine and on the seafront but quite traditional. You can get there by rail - I cycled across the island, which was fine. There are quite a few rail stations.
Currently the Trouville looks like £100-120 a night, before you exercise your discounting skills.
PB brains trust: Have any one you stayed over on the Isle of Wight? Any recommendations for a decent hotel for a 3-4 day break (a family of three)?
Depends on your criteria, as ever. Excellent, expensive places to stay: The Terrace, Ventnor; The Seaview, Seaview; The George, Yarmouth; Foresters Hall, Cowes; Royal Hotel, Ventnor. Mid-range: The Hambrough, Ventnor; the Wight Mouse, Chale, Wellington, Ventnor. Cheaper places to stay: The Brunswick, Shanklin; the Crab & Lobster, Bembridge; Luccombe Manor, Luccombe
If you are coming by car, check out the parking arrangements - a few of the above have limited options
I stayed in the Trouville Hotel in Sandown for a week, which was fine and on the seafront but quite traditional. You can get there by rail - I cycled across the island, which was fine. There are quite a few rail stations.
Currently the Trouville looks like £100-120 a night, before you exercise your discounting skills.
Sandown is a dump, just to bear in mind.
I booked a hotel in Sandown. When my wife saw the nylon sheets we were on the last ferry back to Pompey and in the Holiday Inn Express on the A27 before the clock struck midnight.
If you look at recent polls, I would struggle to conclude that Reform hasn’t peaked. They’re now down on where they were a few weeks ago, even with the pollster that always puts them ahead.
The graph on the Wki page shows they have dropped back slightly. But they are now ahead as Labour have dropped back more. The LibDems and Greens are up a bit, the Tories stabilised.
I wouldn't call that a "peak" though, just a temporary movement in the numbers. They are likely to get good headlines out of the Locals and that will lead to better opinion poll scoring.
At the moment, the voters seem willing to vote for a party they know f*** all about. The peak will come when they find out how shit they are at running local councils and when there are a lot more Reform office holders to be exposed as grufters and racists
That’s a good response and I think you’ve convinced me that I am wrong.
They will get a rise of some kind post election - because whenever a party is perceived to win they seem to go up.
But the thrust of my view I still think is right. Reform will peak and then it will be downhill.
Labour will benefit from that and much will be driven by their moves on immigration. If they cut that, it will be a different conversation IMHO.
The problem Labour has on immigration is similar to the Tory problem on the NHS.
They are never going to get credit for it. The most they will get is “they didn’t burn it down”
If you look at recent polls, I would struggle to conclude that Reform hasn’t peaked. They’re now down on where they were a few weeks ago, even with the pollster that always puts them ahead.
The graph on the Wki page shows they have dropped back slightly. But they are now ahead as Labour have dropped back more. The LibDems and Greens are up a bit, the Tories stabilised.
I wouldn't call that a "peak" though, just a temporary movement in the numbers. They are likely to get good headlines out of the Locals and that will lead to better opinion poll scoring.
At the moment, the voters seem willing to vote for a party they know f*** all about. The peak will come when they find out how shit they are at running local councils and when there are a lot more Reform office holders to be exposed as grufters and racists
That’s a good response and I think you’ve convinced me that I am wrong.
They will get a rise of some kind post election - because whenever a party is perceived to win they seem to go up.
But the thrust of my view I still think is right. Reform will peak and then it will be downhill.
Labour will benefit from that and much will be driven by their moves on immigration. If they cut that, it will be a different conversation IMHO.
The problem Labour has on immigration is similar to the Tory problem on the NHS.
They are never going to get credit for it. The most they will get is “they didn’t burn it down”
This is the main rebuttal to my argument which I acknowledge.
I was intrigued by somebody here who posted that Labour will get credit for austerity as they are expected to spend lots.
Goons attempting to enter Primary (Elementary) Schools to interview children, falsely claiming that they have permission from the parents to do the interviews.
I find this government rather odd. Starmer as a stated lifetime socialist was all about nationalisation of things when he ran for leadership and even after that. Now there is here something that is prime for nationalisation, but they are only sort of nationalising and I imagine the majority of the public could see this as for the greater good, but they are tip toeing around actually committing to nationalisation and also claiming they are going to try and find a private sector buyer (when last time the only option was the Chinese and now they have already ruled out any Chinese company from bidding).
I can't work out the logic politically or even economically.
Its like the unwillingness to find any extra fiver for a new super high tech AstraZeneca facility in the North West.
They have no theory of the world other than "do Thatcherism more politely" and "stupid Green stuff". Literally. The impression I got from "Taken as Red" and "Get In" is that they don't have any political theory other than crowd pleasing headlines and metropolitan elite nostrums. They think the machine works without their involvement, whereas it's a full-time job just trying to make sure the wheels don't come off.
Or, as I put it, they don't know how to fly the plane.
There is a 'thing' though, shared in my opinion by the British civil service, and to be fair by some within the Tory Party, that Britain's national interest is bad and dirty, and that actually the admirable course of action is to kick the lumpen proles of Blighty in the gonads and call it high-minded fairness and competition.
I think it went into overdrive after Brexit, when in my opinion, a great many people in administration decided that Britain's national interest was Brexit's national interest, which they actively loathed, so they would do all they could to undermine the country. The long term plan being to return us suitably chastened to the bosom of Europe.
A more prosaic possibility or perhaps added dimension is that a lot of people are at it.
Either way, they all have to go, the Labour Party of course but a complete gutting of institutions is required too.
Yes. A Reform-led government is necessary but not sufficient. What we need is a Trump-style revolution (without the crazy economics, foolish foreign policy and basic weirdness). Trump did well with his initial 50 days in completely shattering the confidence of the Woke left and dismantling decades of Woke bureauwank
We need the same. Sack half the judges, for a start. Destroy the quangos. Make it illegal to work for migration and asylum cases. Repeal the Equality Act. Repeal any DEI crap. Swift deportations of all foreign criminals. Prohibit the seeking of asylum unless in exceptional cases (HK, Ukraine). Leave the ECHR
And on and on. Basically we need a coup d’etat
At the moment I honestly do not regard this Labour government as legitimate and I feel no moral requirement to obey British laws. It cannot defend our borders, it cannot defend our citizens, it actively and racially discriminates against me as a British white male and against my daughters for merely being white
So the United Kingdom government and all its agencies can go fuck itself
The Trump love is still strong with this arsehole.
It's a tricky position he's in.
The "cutting woke waste" fairy is the only way anyone has of resolving the high tax/poor services dilemma that everyone is struggling with.
Once you have a Union Flag flying outside County Hall and rejigged planning policy so that Ed Milliband can overturn your solar farm refusals, what is the distinctively Reform way of running the county council?
It becomes less of a fairy if the party highlighting it have done their homework, which it appears Reform have.
Have any of the other parties who stand to gain councillors not lose them (Lib Dems, Greens) been looking into potential savings and bothered their arses doing FOI requests to identify waste?
Same thing happened with the Elizabeth Line too. Are the metrics the government uses to justify rail lines just fundamentally broken? Perhaps we should be building far more rail transport if the demand predictions are this out of whack.
Yep - the numbers from Manchester to London alone are wrong because demand is currently restricted by supply
It then didn't estimate extra demand and missed out all the benefits of extra capacity on the existing routes.
Problem is the costs look high because 30+ years of necessary but skipped improvements have had to be included in the HS2 costs.
There have been many improvements to the main Manchester to London route over the last thirty years. The entire West Coast Main Line Upgrade package was near the start of that period; it cost ten times over budget, took years longer than expected, and did not deliver everything (though line speed and capacity was increased).
But the idea that improvements were 'skipped' is ridiculous.
But the WCML Upgrade package shows exactly why HS2 is needed, and why the "just improve the existing route!" are wrong.
(I won't even mention the "reopen the Great Central!" nutters, as they are utterly clueless fuckwits who should be ut in stocks and laughed at by passers-by...
Is it really possible that the Treasury are using models for infrastructure usage that don’t deal with demand being restricted by supply?
The Trump love is still strong with this arsehole.
It's a tricky position he's in.
The "cutting woke waste" fairy is the only way anyone has of resolving the high tax/poor services dilemma that everyone is struggling with.
Once you have a Union Flag flying outside County Hall and rejigged planning policy so that Ed Milliband can overturn your solar farm refusals, what is the distinctively Reform way of running the county council?
It becomes less of a fairy if the party highlighting it have done their homework, which it appears Reform have.
Have any of the other parties who stand to gain councillors not lose them (Lib Dems, Greens) been looking into potential savings and bothered their arses doing FOI requests to identify waste?
Do you think politically allying with Trump’s terminology is wise though? When the biggest barrier to voting Reform is that Farage is up his arse?
I'm not sure I believe it would cost only a couple of hundred million a year to keep the site running. If that is the case, then it would seem, in the short to medium term at least, something of a no brainer.
I find this government rather odd. Starmer as a stated lifetime socialist was all about nationalisation of things when he ran for leadership and even after that. Now there is here something that is prime for nationalisation, but they are only sort of nationalising and I imagine the majority of the public could see this as for the greater good, but they are tip toeing around actually committing to nationalisation and also claiming they are going to try and find a private sector buyer (when last time the only option was the Chinese and now they have already ruled out any Chinese company from bidding).
I can't work out the logic politically or even economically.
Its like the unwillingness to find any extra fiver for a new super high tech AstraZeneca facility in the North West.
They have no theory of the world other than "do Thatcherism more politely" and "stupid Green stuff". Literally. The impression I got from "Taken as Red" and "Get In" is that they don't have any political theory other than crowd pleasing headlines and metropolitan elite nostrums. They think the machine works without their involvement, whereas it's a full-time job just trying to make sure the wheels don't come off.
Or, as I put it, they don't know how to fly the plane.
There is a 'thing' though, shared in my opinion by the British civil service, and to be fair by some within the Tory Party, that Britain's national interest is bad and dirty, and that actually the admirable course of action is to kick the lumpen proles of Blighty in the gonads and call it high-minded fairness and competition.
I think it went into overdrive after Brexit, when in my opinion, a great many people in administration decided that Britain's national interest was Brexit's national interest, which they actively loathed, so they would do all they could to undermine the country. The long term plan being to return us suitably chastened to the bosom of Europe.
A more prosaic possibility or perhaps added dimension is that a lot of people are at it.
Either way, they all have to go, the Labour Party of course but a complete gutting of institutions is required too.
Yes. A Reform-led government is necessary but not sufficient. What we need is a Trump-style revolution (without the crazy economics, foolish foreign policy and basic weirdness). Trump did well with his initial 50 days in completely shattering the confidence of the Woke left and dismantling decades of Woke bureauwank
We need the same. Sack half the judges, for a start. Destroy the quangos. Make it illegal to work for migration and asylum cases. Repeal the Equality Act. Repeal any DEI crap. Swift deportations of all foreign criminals. Prohibit the seeking of asylum unless in exceptional cases (HK, Ukraine). Leave the ECHR
And on and on. Basically we need a coup d’etat
At the moment I honestly do not regard this Labour government as legitimate and I feel no moral requirement to obey British laws. It cannot defend our borders, it cannot defend our citizens, it actively and racially discriminates against me as a British white male and against my daughters for merely being white
So the United Kingdom government and all its agencies can go fuck itself
Says PB’s resident low-IQ twat…who actually voted himself for this government.
You’d be best advised to wait and see how things turn out in the US, currently.
If the judiciary, and Congress, and the press had done their jobs, Trump would not be President.
If they did their jobs now he might still be President, but he would be rendered mostly harmless.
I understand it was naked self-interest that led them all to claim that the Emperor was garbed in fine raiments, but "Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked."
Last week the tide went out on the bond market and Trump was badly exposed.
There is a tide in the affairs of men Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune; Omitted, all the voyage of their life Is bound in shallows and in miseries.
This is the moment.
Seize the fortunes, or be bound in misery forever...
The Trump love is still strong with this arsehole.
It's a tricky position he's in.
The "cutting woke waste" fairy is the only way anyone has of resolving the high tax/poor services dilemma that everyone is struggling with.
Once you have a Union Flag flying outside County Hall and rejigged planning policy so that Ed Milliband can overturn your solar farm refusals, what is the distinctively Reform way of running the county council?
It becomes less of a fairy if the party highlighting it have done their homework, which it appears Reform have.
Have any of the other parties who stand to gain councillors not lose them (Lib Dems, Greens) been looking into potential savings and bothered their arses doing FOI requests to identify waste?
Do you think politically allying with Trump’s terminology is wise though? When the biggest barrier to voting Reform is that Farage is up his arse?
The main issue is not terminology.
It is that huge swathes of what Trump tried to do were simply illegal, and in breach of the USA Constitution.
If you look at recent polls, I would struggle to conclude that Reform hasn’t peaked. They’re now down on where they were a few weeks ago, even with the pollster that always puts them ahead.
The graph on the Wki page shows they have dropped back slightly. But they are now ahead as Labour have dropped back more. The LibDems and Greens are up a bit, the Tories stabilised.
I wouldn't call that a "peak" though, just a temporary movement in the numbers. They are likely to get good headlines out of the Locals and that will lead to better opinion poll scoring.
At the moment, the voters seem willing to vote for a party they know f*** all about. The peak will come when they find out how shit they are at running local councils and when there are a lot more Reform office holders to be exposed as grufters and racists
That’s a good response and I think you’ve convinced me that I am wrong.
They will get a rise of some kind post election - because whenever a party is perceived to win they seem to go up.
But the thrust of my view I still think is right. Reform will peak and then it will be downhill.
Labour will benefit from that and much will be driven by their moves on immigration. If they cut that, it will be a different conversation IMHO.
I think the peak could be quite a high one, and I think their trajectory will be similar to that of Sinn Fein, in the last Irish Parliament.
At one point, they had a very clear lead as the protest party of choice, before falling back in the year coming up to the general election, while still achieving a fairly good result, at the end.
I expect that Electoral Calculus is broadly right, and by 2027, Reform might easily have c.2,000 councillors, and have control of quite a few authorities. They'll probably win Runcorn, and other by-elections, in that period.
Whether Oxford or Cambridge, the girls (and later the guys) have worked immensely hard for this opportunity. The strength required - physical and mental - to do this is quite something. A DQ would ruin the event for both sides.
The Trump love is still strong with this arsehole.
It's a tricky position he's in.
The "cutting woke waste" fairy is the only way anyone has of resolving the high tax/poor services dilemma that everyone is struggling with.
Once you have a Union Flag flying outside County Hall and rejigged planning policy so that Ed Milliband can overturn your solar farm refusals, what is the distinctively Reform way of running the county council?
It becomes less of a fairy if the party highlighting it have done their homework, which it appears Reform have.
Have any of the other parties who stand to gain councillors not lose them (Lib Dems, Greens) been looking into potential savings and bothered their arses doing FOI requests to identify waste?
Do you think politically allying with Trump’s terminology is wise though? When the biggest barrier to voting Reform is that Farage is up his arse?
Yes. Not because the concept is popular or unpopular, just because it's a phrase that has entered the public consciousness that deals with active intervention to strip out waste. The concept 'reduce waste' itself no longer has any meaning, because it has been used by every UK Government without exception, and all have added to the waste. There's no point in saying those words.
I'm not sure I believe it would cost only a couple of hundred million a year to keep the site running. If that is the case, then it would seem, in the short to medium term at least, something of a no brainer.
Keeping the blast furnaces running at a low pace wouldn’t cost sagans
I think what happened here is that a Chinese company with problems of its own tried subsidy farming, when it bought the plant.
The apparently open ended demand for money reminds of the ludicrous bid for making British passports, way back, by a British firm…. “Mr Government - fix all the problems in my company by giving me all the money”.
O/T the Canadian elections, oddly, the Conservatives' vote share would be enough to win, in normal circumstances, at c.39% on average. It's just, the circumstances are not normal, and the non-Conservative vote has collapsed to the Liberals.
If you look at recent polls, I would struggle to conclude that Reform hasn’t peaked. They’re now down on where they were a few weeks ago, even with the pollster that always puts them ahead.
The graph on the Wki page shows they have dropped back slightly. But they are now ahead as Labour have dropped back more. The LibDems and Greens are up a bit, the Tories stabilised.
I wouldn't call that a "peak" though, just a temporary movement in the numbers. They are likely to get good headlines out of the Locals and that will lead to better opinion poll scoring.
At the moment, the voters seem willing to vote for a party they know f*** all about. The peak will come when they find out how shit they are at running local councils and when there are a lot more Reform office holders to be exposed as grufters and racists
That’s a good response and I think you’ve convinced me that I am wrong.
They will get a rise of some kind post election - because whenever a party is perceived to win they seem to go up.
But the thrust of my view I still think is right. Reform will peak and then it will be downhill.
Labour will benefit from that and much will be driven by their moves on immigration. If they cut that, it will be a different conversation IMHO.
I think the peak could be quite a high one, and I think their trajectory will be similar to that of Sinn Fein, in the last Irish Parliament.
At one point, they had a very clear lead as the protest party of choice, before falling back in the year coming up to the general election, while still achieving a fairly good result, at the end.
I expect that Electoral Calculus is broadly right, and by 2027, Reform might easily have c.2,000 councillors, and have control of quite a few authorities. They'll probably win Runcorn, and other by-elections, in that period.
Yeah good response.
It is interesting that we both agree on their being a peak, just not exactly how high or when it will be.
Labour is in the fortunate position of having a lot of time.
If we are to play the optimistic game - of which I am happy to be called stupid - things may look very different by 2029.
Imagine that the economy has grown some, there’s a budget surplus, immigration has been cut, waiting lists have come down, Trump has destroyed any popularity for populism…
What exactly will be the reasons to vote for Reform then? And that’s before we analyse their policies.
Feels all very Lib Dem Joe Swinson to me, was popular until people worked out how stupid her cancel Brexit policy was.
O/T the Canadian elections, oddly, the Conservatives' vote share would be enough to win, in normal circumstances, at c.39% on average. It's just, the circumstances are not normal, and the non-Conservative vote has collapsed to the Liberals.
One wonders, if people here are choosing between Reform and Labour, will people really vote for the Greens?
Comments
(I'm so unsophisticated I've used the word sophisticated in subsequent posts)
Тут или главбухом быть или двор мести.
Here you're the chief accountant or you sweep the yard.
As the song (Еду в Магадан) says...
Apparently the conversation went Tories, Tories, Tories, Tories, Brexit, Brexit, Brexit, Tories, (none of which was relevant to the issue at hand), followed by well what do you want me to do about in a huff...followed by given the run around.
Might explain some of the under-performance if that is typical (along with the weird 5G stuff).
The bit I'm surprised at is that the usage estimates are so low - but I suspect that was gamed to fit an investment limit (£x0m is fine £x+y0m is going to be rejected).
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/04/13/tulip-siddiq-issued-arrest-warrant-on-corruption-charges/
Need to work out if I'm going down this week but I think I have to because a detonated a bomb under the project last week - the supplier did about 8 days of recorded (and unfinished incomplete) work while reporting 24 man days.
If you are coming by car, check out the parking arrangements - a few of the above have limited options
Yep - the numbers from Manchester to London alone are wrong because demand is currently restricted by supply
It then didn't estimate extra demand and missed out all the benefits of extra capacity on the existing routes.
Problem is the costs look high because 30+ years of necessary but skipped improvements have had to be included in the HS2 costs.
And Good Morning all. Not quite as bright and sunny see today, but very pleasant.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2025/apr/13/ufc-314-trump-standing-ovation-volkanovski-lopes
After all we don't want anyone chased over here for upsetting Trump, do we?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/04/13/tulip-siddiq-issued-arrest-warrant-on-corruption-charges/
Or to exploit opportunities we which may become available, for examples waves of researchers seeking to leave the USA because they are at risk of being detained and renditioned illegally by Trump's secret police - as is already happening.
The same may happen for US companies looking for a new base in a civilised country characterised by the rule of law.
The UK is still in many ways the most suitable new home for such companies or organisations. I can see something like Freedom House needing to leave the USA; in due course they will be targetted.
There are many other aspects which getting no perceptible attention from Starmer's Govt.
Tories and RefUK would be infinitely worse with their USA fetish, but Labour are not up to scratch.
HAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHA
It is the "London Scheme":
https://production-new-commonwealth-files.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/migrated/key_reform_pdfs/P15370_13_ROL_Schemes_Int_Cooperation.pdf
Also Farage wants to put DOGE into every council, so who will provide these services when they are destroyed and is talking up Trump’s disaster honestly a good strategy? They wisely backed nationalisation of British Steel but then they also have these weird policies too.
Reform are exposed as soon as they become serious as their platform is fundamentally undeliverable and unaffordable.
Иә, дұрыс айтасыз, мен Нұр-Сұлтандамын.
Gary Glitter is a useful one for old men with dodgy Goaty beards, or pubic hair from the 1972 Joy of Sex.
Perhaps the best I can do for teenage 'taches is Zorro, but in the end it's usually whatever they think will impress the laydees.
And I'd far prefer that to having them hooning around in tosser-tanks with tuned exhausts. At least a moustache only embarrasses the person cultivating it.
"I've looked at the numbers... we probably need a DOGE for every single county council in England"
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage says he does "accept that it's been very tough for county councils"
https://x.com/BBCPolitics/status/1911353690436280536
The Trump love is still strong with this arsehole.
https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1911374389746004111
While Witkoff goes sightseeing with his Russian mates.
https://x.com/yarotrof/status/1911335765239345387
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c87p3lep19yo
I find this government rather odd. Starmer as a stated lifetime socialist was all about nationalisation of things when he ran for leadership and even after that. Now there is here something that is prime for nationalisation, but they are only sort of nationalising and I imagine the majority of the public could see this as for the greater good, but they are tip toeing around actually committing to nationalisation and also claiming they are going to try and find a private sector buyer (when last time the only option was the Chinese and now they have already ruled out any Chinese company from bidding).
I can't work out the logic politically or even economically.
Its like the unwillingness to find any extra fiver for a new super high tech Astra Zeneca facility in the North West.
The "cutting woke waste" fairy is the only way anyone has of resolving the high tax/poor services dilemma that everyone is struggling with.
Once you have a Union Flag flying outside County Hall and rejigged planning policy so that Ed Milliband can overturn your solar farm refusals, what is the distinctively Reform way of running the county council?
https://x.com/nbcsnl/status/1911293068021469611?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/bangladesh-prisoner-pack/information-for-british-prisoners-in-bangladesh
Labour is screwed though if Reform and the Tories make a deal.
Or, as I put it, they don't know how to fly the plane.
Which, given your moniker, seems apt.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/12/22/how-beach-hut-dream-turned-into-a-planning-nightmare/
I stayed in the Trouville Hotel in Sandown for a week, which was fine and on the seafront but quite traditional. You can get there by rail - I cycled across the island, which was fine. There are quite a few rail stations.
Currently the Trouville looks like £100-120 a night, before you exercise your discounting skills.
Everybody involved seems to want their version of events on the record lately.
I think it went into overdrive after Brexit, when in my opinion, a great many people in administration decided that Britain's national interest was Brexit's national interest, which they actively loathed, so they would do all they could to undermine the country. The long term plan being to return us suitably chastened to the bosom of Europe.
A more prosaic possibility or perhaps added dimension is that a lot of people are at it.
Either way, they all have to go, the Labour Party of course but a complete gutting of institutions is required too.
I wouldn't call that a "peak" though, just a temporary movement in the numbers. They are likely to get good headlines out of the Locals and that will lead to better opinion poll scoring.
At the moment, the voters seem willing to vote for a party they know f*** all about. The peak will come when they find out how shit they are at running local councils and when there are a lot more Reform office holders to be exposed as grufters and racists
I'm sticking to my "500 or more" will be OK - for them, but perhaps not the Councils they win, if any.
We just deliver parcels and get paid slightly bigger peanuts
Double tap attack, btw, using anti-personnel warheads.
Very special.
So *keeping* bin collection is going to be a major issue.
In my area, so of the richer people are already contracting with various companies to do extra bin collection (council is once every two weeks)
They will get a rise of some kind post election - because whenever a party is perceived to win they seem to go up.
But the thrust of my view I still think is right. Reform will peak and then it will be downhill.
Labour will benefit from that and much will be driven by their moves on immigration. If they cut that, it will be a different conversation IMHO.
But the idea that improvements were 'skipped' is ridiculous.
But the WCML Upgrade package shows exactly why HS2 is needed, and why the "just improve the existing route!" are wrong.
(I won't even mention the "reopen the Great Central!" nutters, as they are utterly clueless fuckwits who should be ut in stocks and laughed at by passers-by...
The move would reportedly have Japan take a more involved role in training Ukrainian forces, potentially sending troops to Europe to do so.
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1911343402752364805
Caveats: this only tells you how outcomes shift, not indivdual votes, and low turnout doesn't help.
They are never going to get credit for it. The most they will get is “they didn’t burn it down”
Sir Humphrey would be happy.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/apr/13/gaza-city-hospital-hit-ahli-baptist-civil-defence-agency-israel-intensifies-military-operations-katz
..The Palestinian civil defence agency said Israel’s air force fired missiles at al-Ahli hospital, also known as the Baptist or Ahli Arab hospital. It is {was) the only hospital still functioning in Gaza City after the destruction of medical facilities in the northern area of the strip...
I was intrigued by somebody here who posted that Labour will get credit for austerity as they are expected to spend lots.
Goons attempting to enter Primary (Elementary) Schools to interview children, falsely claiming that they have permission from the parents to do the interviews.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/immigration-agents-turned-away-after-trying-to-enter-la-elementary-schools/ar-AA1CLyp6
We need the same. Sack half the judges, for a start. Destroy the quangos. Make it illegal to work for migration and asylum cases. Repeal the Equality Act. Repeal any DEI crap. Swift deportations of all foreign criminals. Prohibit the seeking of asylum unless in exceptional cases (HK, Ukraine). Leave the ECHR
And on and on. Basically we need a coup d’etat
At the moment I honestly do not regard this Labour government as legitimate and I feel no moral requirement to obey British laws. It cannot defend our borders, it cannot defend our citizens, it actively and racially discriminates against me as a British
white male and against my daughters for merely being white
So the United Kingdom government and all its agencies can go fuck itself
Have any of the other parties who stand to gain councillors not lose them (Lib Dems, Greens) been looking into potential savings and bothered their arses doing FOI requests to identify waste?
Perhaps they believe in Phlogiston?
Jonathan Reynolds says ‘high trust bar’ now in place for Chinese companies to invest in critical UK infrastructure
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/apr/13/no-guarantee-british-steel-plant-will-be-able-to-continue-says-business-secretary
I'm not sure I believe it would cost only a couple of hundred million a year to keep the site running.
If that is the case, then it would seem, in the short to medium term at least, something of a no brainer.
You’d be best advised to wait and see how things turn out in the US, currently.
If they did their jobs now he might still be President, but he would be rendered mostly harmless.
I understand it was naked self-interest that led them all to claim that the Emperor was garbed in fine raiments, but "Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked."
Last week the tide went out on the bond market and Trump was badly exposed.
There is a tide in the affairs of men
Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life
Is bound in shallows and in miseries.
This is the moment.
Seize the fortunes, or be bound in misery forever...
It is that huge swathes of what Trump tried to do were simply illegal, and in breach of the USA Constitution.
He's trying to burn the USA down.
At one point, they had a very clear lead as the protest party of choice, before falling back in the year coming up to the general election, while still achieving a fairly good result, at the end.
I expect that Electoral Calculus is broadly right, and by 2027, Reform might easily have c.2,000 councillors, and have control of quite a few authorities. They'll probably win Runcorn, and other by-elections, in that period.
It also piggy backs on to a lot of hard work done by actual people into Government waste, which is rampant in the UK: https://youtu.be/dE4TghZ44mo?feature=shared
I think what happened here is that a Chinese company with problems of its own tried subsidy farming, when it bought the plant.
The apparently open ended demand for money reminds of the ludicrous bid for making British passports, way back, by a British firm…. “Mr Government - fix all the problems in my company by giving me all the money”.
It is interesting that we both agree on their being a peak, just not exactly how high or when it will be.
Labour is in the fortunate position of having a lot of time.
If we are to play the optimistic game - of which I am happy to be called stupid - things may look very different by 2029.
Imagine that the economy has grown some, there’s a budget surplus, immigration has been cut, waiting lists have come down, Trump has destroyed any popularity for populism…
What exactly will be the reasons to vote for Reform then? And that’s before we analyse their policies.
Feels all very Lib Dem Joe Swinson to me, was popular until people worked out how stupid her cancel Brexit policy was.