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Trump number 2 specials – politicalbetting.com

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  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,108

    I wonder if there's a market price for Vance taking over due to assassination?

    I got 18/1 on Trump being replaced this year. Manner unspecified
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,499

    Starmer will kiss the ass
    I sadly agree...
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 857
    Scott_xP said:

    I got 18/1 on Trump being replaced this year. Manner unspecified
    That seems decent - those are roughly the actuarial odds for a 78 year old American, so it's a free bet on everything else
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,227
    Well the US markets have opened with a note of sunny optimism - lets see how long it lasts !
  • eekeek Posts: 29,734

    To show my disgust at Trump I will never buy Jack Daniels or any other American alcoholic products.

    I drink - i don’t think I’ve ever willingly drunk an American alcoholic drink unless in the US
  • vikvik Posts: 248
    edited April 9
    eek said:

    Russia’s problem is that with the rest of the world also talking to China, Russia is nowhere near as important to China for trade as it was a week ago
    Russia's strong reaction is because of their deep alliance with China. They understand that when your ally gets attacked, then you take your ally's side.

    Trump & MAGA are really stupid & imagine that Putin would be willing to give up China & ally with the USA.

    China is a reliable ally, while any alliance with the USA would be very shaky & very temporary. Putin isn't stupid enough to take this gamble.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,296
    EU have just announced tit-for-tat tariffs. Starmer is the outlier.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,227
    Prohibition of "dual use" items to USA in place by China being introduced now. What we did to Russia back at the start of the Ukr war iirc.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,400

    Ah, we're good military allies rather than pathetic freeloading losers now.
    Time to set off Vance in grovelling mode.
    Too late though- the discount for US lack of reliability is already incoming.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,499

    Serious mode on.

    I thought what Ed Davey did during the election campaign was interesting and effective. Make a prat of yourself every day, usually with some kind of point if you looked hard enough, and crucially get some exposure. It did its job. Add in the unusual circumstances and the Lib Dems surged to a great result.

    But what's next?

    I think the Lib Dems need to stop trying to be all things to all men. Oppose any hint of new house building in your constituency whilst nationally campaigning for more housing. Realise that government is hard as Labour are suddenly finding out. Stop pretending that they can get away with saying "we're not like them" comparing with other politicians.

    Time to say what they would do. Time, perhaps to embrace the call of the EU again. If you believe that Britain should be in the EU have the courage of your convictions. Make the case. Explain how you will grow the economy. What you will do about immigration, be it small boats or jets into Heathrow.

    Until they do then they are surely doomed to be what they are now. 4th.

    There is a chance right now, but Davey needs to make the case. And it won't be via a waterslide or by playing crazy golf in speedos.
    It's still a problem getting exposure though. You only need to look at QT. BBC would rather put a reform or plaid on rather than a LibDem.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,227
    edited April 9
    vik said:

    Russia's strong reaction is because of their deep alliance with China. They understand that when your ally gets attacked, then you take your ally's side.

    Trump & MAGA are really stupid & imagine that Putin would be willing to give up China & ally with the USA.

    China is a reliable ally, while any alliance with the USA would be very shaky & very temporary. Putin isn't stupid enough to take this gamble.
    Remember Zelensky "found" a couple of Chinese bods in the Russian army the other day. And the US is still providing substantial support to Ukraine despite all the chatter.
    China is on the other side of the ledger in the war supporting Russia. It's important to remember the US when push and shove come is our ally, not China.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,835

    EU have just announced tit-for-tat tariffs. Starmer is the outlier.

    It's good that we are not governed by a panican.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,108
    @Ronxyz00

    Fox News tells a story a small business owner who used to pay $26,000 in tariffs on goods imported from China, but now faces a $346,000 tariff due to Trump’s new 104% tariff on Chinese imports.

    "We think that China is gonna have to pay for it. A special needs toy importer-- when the tariff went into effect, his tariff bill went from $26,000 at midnight to $346,000. And that's money that's got to have to come out of his pocket... They think foreign countries have to pay the tariff, that's not true. Tariffs are being paid by Americans."

    https://x.com/Ronxyz00/status/1909923574972105114
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,038

    EU have just announced tit-for-tat tariffs. Starmer is the outlier.

    The US imposed lower tariffs on UK than Chinese and EU imports
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,038
    Pulpstar said:

    Remember Zelensky "found" a couple of Chinese bods in the Russian army the other day. And the US is still providing substantial support to Ukraine despite all the chatter.
    China is on the other side of the ledger in the war supporting Russia. It's important to remember the US when push and shove come is our ally, not China.
    Though China was neutral in the recent UN vote on Ukraine while the US voted with Russia
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,106

    It's still a problem getting exposure though. You only need to look at QT. BBC would rather put a reform or plaid on rather than a LibDem.
    The BBC’s aversion to giving LibDems fair exposure on both QT and AQ is disappointing and mysterious, particularly since I’d wager the LibDems poll very well among BBC staff at all levels within the corporation.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,262
    Off topic, but may amuse some of you: We are having a special election here in King County: https://kingcounty.gov/en/dept/elections/election-information/2025/april-special

    In my part of the county, there is just one proposition to vote on: "The King County Council has passed Ordinance No. 19884 concerning this proposition for the regional automated fingerprint identification system (AFIS) levy. This proposition would fund the continued operation of the AFIS program to provide enhanced forensic fingerprint and palmprint technology and services to aid in the administration of justice. It would authorize an additional property tax for seven years beginning in 2026 at $0.0275 per $1,000 of assessed valuation, use the 2026 levy amount to compute limitations under Chapter 84.55 RCW for subsequent levies in 2027-2032, and exempt eligible seniors, veterans, and disabled persons under RCW 84.36.381."

    (RCW = Revised Code of Washington)

    Will I vote for it? Probably, though it looks like what is often called a "fireman first" proposition. (When a local government wants to raise taxes, it will sometimes threaten to reduce security personnel, for example, firemen.)

    ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_County,_Washington )
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,400
    Leon said:

    For the trillionth time, I said before the election that I would not ever vote for Trump because - much as I love his anti-Woke stuff (and I really really love it) - the chance he was serious about tariffs etc was far too big a risk to take. I compared him to a polar bear on a melting ice floe, you deal with the bear first by shooting it, as he is the proximal danger- then worry about your ice floe melting over time

    Turns out my worries about tariffs were justified. Unfortunately

    As for the Faroes I hope to go there this summer. I have an invite, but got to finalise deets. I'm keen - it sounds deliciously mad as a destination
    Trillionth? :-) your usual hyperbolic style.

    I just spent a couple of days there.

    It is insane, and the food scene is... um... interesting, though definitely not for the squeamish.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,038
    stodge said:

    Equally serious mode on….

    No one is asking Reform or Farage what they would be doing now were they in Government and the polls put them in a more likely position to be leading a minority Government than the LDs.

    However, it’s a specious line of reasoning as we were less than a year from an election and a minimum of three years from another General Election.

    Indeed, one could argue it’s far from clear what a future Conservative Government would do yet it seems the LDs are the ones who have to play their hand while the other parties are still looking at their cards.

    One could also argue those opposed to the LDs for whatever reason are simply frustrated at the ability of the party to seemingly do so much with so little. To be blunt for a Wednesday afternoon, the Conservatives made an unholy mess of their 14 years leading the Government, and they deserved the defeat handed them by the electorate last year.

    As their vote fragmented, including the large numbers of ex-Tories who stayed at home, the political map was redefined. Yet there are two sides to the question - why did the Conservatives lose seats like Chichester? Why did the Liberal Democrats win seats like Chichester? You have to answer both questions.
    Chichester voted Leave by less than the UK average, at the same time many traditional Labour seats which were strong Leave voted for Boris in 2019 and are now likely to go Reform
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,787
    HYUFD said:

    Chichester voted Leave by less than the UK average, at the same time many traditional Labour seats which were strong Leave voted for Boris in 2019 and are now likely to go Reform
    They voted Conservative. Not "for Boris"
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,038
    edited April 9

    They voted Conservative. Not "for Boris"
    No, they voted for Boris and Brexit. Those redwall seats had never voted Tory before , went back to Labour last year and now back Farage
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,106
    edited April 9
    Pulpstar said:

    Well the US markets have opened with a note of sunny optimism - lets see how long it lasts !

    Even Tesla shares are going up. Why would anyone buy Tesla shares right now? Their valuation was pumped up by the assumption that its healthy sales growth would continue for years to come - yet currently Tesla sales are in decline everywhere, and its used car prices have collapsed - and inflated even further by the expectation that association with Trump would do the company huge favours - yet Musk has turned himself into a global pariah such that their cars are being vandalised the world over and even other Tesla board members are calling for him to resign.

    And they face a wave of competition incoming from apparently pretty decent Chinese made EVs.

    A screaming sell.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,038

    Coastal states that voted for Trump: North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Louisiana, Texas, Mississippi, Alabama, Alaska. Which is 137 electoral votes.
    Still less than the coastal states that voted for Harris (though maybe I should have just said the west coast and North East Harris voting coastal states)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,038
    Cicero said:

    Farage? Wondering if RefUK might end up being yet another victim of the curse of Trump--- See Giuliani, R etc.
    No, their voters hate globalisation and immigration too and are also protectionist
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,108
    IanB2 said:

    Even Tesla shares are going up. Why would anyone buy Tesla shares right now? Their valuation was pumped up by the assumption that its healthy sales growth would continue for years to come - yet currently Tesla sales are in decline everywhere, and its used car prices have collapsed - and inflated even further by the expectation that association with Trump would do the company huge favours - yet Musk has turned himself into a global pariah such that other Tesla board members are calling for him to resign.

    A screaming sell.
    Tesla is a memestock. The price is completely untethered to value...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,108
    @SkyNews

    This is President Donald Trump’s "Border Czar" Tom Homan addressing the House of Representatives in Arizona. House Democrats shared a video showing people standing up and leaving the room as Homan was speaking.

    https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1909973741389426790
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,038
    Sean_F said:

    Not to mention that there are millions of people who voted for Trump, working in tech, and export-oriented businesses.
    There were millions in the rustbelt who voted for Harris but it doesn't change the point, the rustbelt and South and Midwest overall went for Trump and the Tech industry, Hollywood and Wall St and DC for Harris
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180
    Scott_xP said:

    @Ronxyz00

    Fox News tells a story a small business owner who used to pay $26,000 in tariffs on goods imported from China, but now faces a $346,000 tariff due to Trump’s new 104% tariff on Chinese imports.

    "We think that China is gonna have to pay for it. A special needs toy importer-- when the tariff went into effect, his tariff bill went from $26,000 at midnight to $346,000. And that's money that's got to have to come out of his pocket... They think foreign countries have to pay the tariff, that's not true. Tariffs are being paid by Americans."

    https://x.com/Ronxyz00/status/1909923574972105114

    So how does 100% of his tariffs increase his bill by 1500%? That’s total bollocks unless the vast bulk of his turnover was previously tariff free and now isn’t.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,787
    HYUFD said:

    No, they voted for Boris and Brexit, Those redwall seats had never voted Tory before , went back to Labour last year and now back Farage
    No, (as you would say), they voted against Corbyn. There have been numerous polls that demonstrated this but your love for the clownish charlatan blinds you. You are every bit as bad as the most stupid MAGA cult follower.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,296

    It's good that we are not governed by a panican.
    HYUFD said:

    The US imposed lower tariffs on UK than Chinese and EU imports
    What's wrong with you two? It's a capitulation.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,709
    Pulpstar said:

    Remember Zelensky "found" a couple of Chinese bods in the Russian army the other day. And the US is still providing substantial support to Ukraine despite all the chatter.
    China is on the other side of the ledger in the war supporting Russia. It's important to remember the US when push and shove come is our ally, not China.
    US companies are still testing their new products in Ukraine.

    MQ-35 V-BAT’s Capabilities Grow, Micro Guided Munitions Coming Next Year
    The combat-proven V-BAT can take off and land virtually anywhere and does the job of larger aircraft. Now it's getting a slew of major enhancements.
    https://www.twz.com/news-features/mq-35-v-bats-capabilities-grow-micro-guided-weapons-coming-next-year

  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,626

    It's still a problem getting exposure though. You only need to look at QT. BBC would rather put a reform or plaid on rather than a LibDem.
    Presumably there are stats for this, and you'd guess that with so many MPs the BBC will have to be more balanced. I know that Farage seems to be on a lot, as he is basically 'reform'. Isn't there a suspicion that the BBC running with Reform guests is to try to expose them a bit (as per the racist Nick Griffin, all those years ago?)
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,624
    eek said:

    I drink - i don’t think I’ve ever willingly drunk an American alcoholic drink unless in the US
    I have, not many, but certainly some reasonable stuff. I guess when it’s blisteringly hot and you’re sweating profusely even Carling would seem decent.

    When I was in Denver for my best mates wedding we did a brewery trip and the ales there were decent.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,106
    edited April 9
    Incoming via the BBC:

    George Saravelos, head of foreign exchange research at Deutsche Bank, wrote in a note to clients today that he feared that disorderly markets could eventually force the Federal Reserve to step in.

    He said: “We are witnessing a simultaneous collapse in the price of all US assets including equities, the dollar versus alternative reserve FX and the bond market. We are entering uncharted territory in the global financial system.” Saravelos argued that Trump’s hopes of reducing bilateral trade deficits are “functionally equivalent to lowering demand for US assets as well.

    He also noted that the next stage of escalation with China will be key. There could be serious problems if the US tries to use its financial power against China.

    "With a 100%+ tariff on China, there is little room now left for an escalation on the trade front. The next phase risks being an outright financial war involving Chinese ownership of US assets, both on the official and private sector front. It is important to note there can be no winner to such a war: it will damage both the owner (China) and the producer (US) of those assets. The loser will be the global economy.

    The Federal Reserve could cushion some of the blow, he argued, but in the end only one thing can properly stabilise markets: “a reversal in the policies of the Trump administration itself”.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,624
    Scott_xP said:

    Tesla is a memestock. The price is completely untethered to value...
    Tesla was a classic growth stock however it has stopped growing.

    Now it is fucked, it will find its natural value now.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180

    What's wrong with you two? It's a capitulation.
    The nasty big boy didn’t hit us as hard as the others so that’s a win. Apparently.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,108
    From earlier

    @josh_wingrove

    Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this morning floated the notion of striking tariff deals with friendly countries then pivoting to China. Talks with Japan are first on his agenda, he said.

    https://x.com/josh_wingrove/status/1909958742189224154

    Oh

    @WestWingReport

    U.S. is shut out:
    China, Japan and South Korea are now discussing a three-way free-trade deal, excluding America from its economic benefits. These three countries account for about 25% of the world’s economy

    https://x.com/WestWingReport/status/1909962588705747076
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,108
    How long can they keep this up?

    @davidfrum

    Yes, the captain intentionally piloted the ship into a huge iceberg, cracking the vessel like an egg.

    But the officers insist we'll all greatly benefit from an invigorating midnight swim through Arctic waters.

    https://x.com/davidfrum/status/1909948143078089198
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    DavidL said:

    So how does 100% of his tariffs increase his bill by 1500%? That’s total bollocks unless the vast bulk of his turnover was previously tariff free and now isn’t.
    It's 104% tariffs now.

    104% gives a tariff bill of $346,000, so previously his $26,000 tariff bill equated to about 7.8% tariff overall.

    Perfectly plausible.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,682
    .
    DavidL said:

    So how does 100% of his tariffs increase his bill by 1500%? That’s total bollocks unless the vast bulk of his turnover was previously tariff free and now isn’t.
    If a tariff goes from 10% (of the price of the thing being imported) to 100%, the tariff bill increases by 900%.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,108

    That seems decent - those are roughly the actuarial odds for a 78 year old American, so it's a free bet on everything else
    A "medical emergency" would seem the best solution, for all concerned
  • eekeek Posts: 29,734
    Scott_xP said:

    From earlier

    @josh_wingrove

    Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this morning floated the notion of striking tariff deals with friendly countries then pivoting to China. Talks with Japan are first on his agenda, he said.

    https://x.com/josh_wingrove/status/1909958742189224154

    Oh

    @WestWingReport

    U.S. is shut out:
    China, Japan and South Korea are now discussing a three-way free-trade deal, excluding America from its economic benefits. These three countries account for about 25% of the world’s economy

    https://x.com/WestWingReport/status/1909962588705747076

    The China / Japan / South Korea trade deal is old news from last week - which is why I suspect the White House story about countries phoning up begging for deals isn’t exactly that true. They are going to be phoning up in a Nelson Muntz way (sorry no photo as I used that earlier today)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180

    .

    If a tariff goes from 10% (of the price of the thing being imported) to 100%, the tariff bill increases by 900%.
    Yes but not 1500%. This is really bad and getting worse but I think this is an exaggeration.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,734
    Scott_xP said:

    A "medical emergency" would seem the best solution, for all concerned
    The damage is done though - what Trump had pulled off means that at best you should treat the USA with suspicion
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,664

    NEW THREAD

  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,695
    Scott_xP said:


    @WestWingReport

    U.S. is shut out:
    China, Japan and South Korea are now discussing a three-way free-trade deal, excluding America from its economic benefits. These three countries account for about 25% of the world’s economy

    https://x.com/WestWingReport/status/1909962588705747076

    What is this supposed to mean? Three countries signing a mutual FTA, or lesser trade deal, might have happened because of Trump but it has nothing to do with "excluding America". It's like saying our FTA with Canada or the EU "excludes America".
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,607
    IanB2 said:

    The BBC’s aversion to giving LibDems fair exposure on both QT and AQ is disappointing and mysterious, particularly since I’d wager the LibDems poll very well among BBC staff at all levels within the corporation.
    Question Time is run by a private production company that historically has been accused of persistent right wing bias in panel choices & who they let in to the live audience.

    They would probably argue that those people “make for good TV” of course.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,734
    edited April 9
    IanB2 said:

    Even Tesla shares are going up. Why would anyone buy Tesla shares right now? Their valuation was pumped up by the assumption that its healthy sales growth would continue for years to come - yet currently Tesla sales are in decline everywhere, and its used car prices have collapsed - and inflated even further by the expectation that association with Trump would do the company huge favours - yet Musk has turned himself into a global pariah such that their cars are being vandalised the world over and even other Tesla board members are calling for him to resign.

    And they face a wave of competition incoming from apparently pretty decent Chinese made EVs.

    A screaming sell.
    If ever there was a stock that was a modern day equivalent to tulip mania it’s Tesla stock. It’s defied reality for at least the last 5 years
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    DavidL said:

    Yes but not 1500%. This is really bad and getting worse but I think this is an exaggeration.
    $26k to $346k is 1330% not 1500%.

    Look the guy might be making up or exaggerating his numbers but it's not implausible, depending on what goods he is importing. (Interesting it's Fox New reporting it too.)
  • PJHPJH Posts: 814
    IanB2 said:

    The BBC’s aversion to giving LibDems fair exposure on both QT and AQ is disappointing and mysterious, particularly since I’d wager the LibDems poll very well among BBC staff at all levels within the corporation.
    Perhaps there's a bit of "coach's son" syndrome - making sure they are seen not to be pandering to those they are most sympathetic to? They certainly aren't showing the alternative approach, blatant favouritism.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180
    Taz said:

    Tesla was a classic growth stock however it has stopped growing.

    Now it is fucked, it will find its natural value now.
    If Tesla is going to survive Musk is going to have to sell it. What he has done to the brand with its main client base goes so far beyond Rattnering as to be on a different planet.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,734
    edited April 9
    Pulpstar said:

    Remember Zelensky "found" a couple of Chinese bods in the Russian army the other day. And the US is still providing substantial support to Ukraine despite all the chatter.
    China is on the other side of the ledger in the war supporting Russia. It's important to remember the US when push and shove come is our ally, not China.
    Was our ally - if you think that’s the case nowadays I think you will discover you were very mistaken
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,171

    I wonder if there's a market price for Vance taking over due to assassination?

    tbh I do not think I could stand another 60 years of Americans arguing about a cover-up and second shooter.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,108
    eek said:

    The damage is done though - what Trump had pulled off means that at best you should treat the USA with suspicion
    Yebbut, removing Trump is a necessary if insufficient condition of saving America.

    A medical emergency would be a 'good' way of doing that
  • eekeek Posts: 29,734
    I think whoever created the tag line “the future is bright, the future is orange” came from an alternative universe
  • BogotaBogota Posts: 119
    IanB2 said:

    Even Tesla shares are going up. Why would anyone buy Tesla shares right now? Their valuation was pumped up by the assumption that its healthy sales growth would continue for years to come - yet currently Tesla sales are in decline everywhere, and its used car prices have collapsed - and inflated even further by the expectation that association with Trump would do the company huge favours - yet Musk has turned himself into a global pariah such that their cars are being vandalised the world over and even other Tesla board members are calling for him to resign.

    And they face a wave of competition incoming from apparently pretty decent Chinese made EVs.

    A screaming sell.
    Markets are on a constant hunt for liquidity. They wont go down everyday no matter how bad the news is.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    This Thread is a screaming sell.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012

    As the biggest and staunchest atheist in the world, I do believe Jesus existed.

    I also think his message of peace, hope and love for the world and fellow humans was much to be admired.

    Christians who follow his message, and the New Testament, are the proper way. Those who believe in the Old Testament and 'bashing babies against rocks' (Psalm 137:9) are wrong and should be ignored.
    One of the very best fairly recent books on the life of the historical Jesus is by the late Maurice Casey who had no belief whatever in the Christian faith. The first 141 pages are on historical methodology. He thought the eccentrics who didn't believe that Jesus ever existed were a tiny bunch of nutters, and that we know quite a lot about him.

    By the way, Jesus studies overlaps the disciplines of theology, history, religious studies, middle eastern/west asian/oriental studies and classical studies. I can't think off hand of anyone in those disciplines who doesn't think Jesus is a historical character. He is better attested than loads of people from the era whose existence we don't seriously question, and better attested from near his own time than Alexander the Great. (Who also existed).
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,846
    Scott_xP said:

    @Ronxyz00

    Fox News tells a story a small business owner who used to pay $26,000 in tariffs on goods imported from China, but now faces a $346,000 tariff due to Trump’s new 104% tariff on Chinese imports.

    "We think that China is gonna have to pay for it. A special needs toy importer-- when the tariff went into effect, his tariff bill went from $26,000 at midnight to $346,000. And that's money that's got to have to come out of his pocket... They think foreign countries have to pay the tariff, that's not true. Tariffs are being paid by Americans."

    https://x.com/Ronxyz00/status/1909923574972105114

    The joy of that thread is that it demonstrates why Trump is right to abolish the Department of Education. When people are already unable to pass basic reading comprehension and mathematics, the DofE must be doing an awful job
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,400
    Leon said:

    That's a nice line, but it isn't true

    The Baltics are doing really well (but they joined the EU and as a consequence lost 1/3 of their populations, was it worth it?)

    Azerbaijan is doing fine - but that's oil

    Armenia is an impoverished dump

    Uzbekistan is poor

    Ukraine was poor, now even poorer

    Georgia is OK but war-torn

    Kazakhstan is quite well off

    Kyrgyzstan is poor

    There are too many variables to make your statement
    The Baltics are certainly doing well, despite everything. However the fall in population did not really come as a result of their accession to the EU. It happened in the 1940s.

    In 1938, in Estonia for example the population was 1.3 million, of which 88% were Estonian, with Russians being about 7% of the population. By 1989 the population was 1.5 million of which Estonians were only a bare 60%. Roughly one third of the pre war population was shot, sent to the camps or fled. The gap was filled in the 1960s and 1970s mostly by Russians.

    After independence was restored in 1991, the Russians that were part of the Soviet military had all left by 1994. Russian pensioners that retired to the Baltic (still a much higher standard of living than the rest of the USSR even after 40 years of occupation) also began to die off. Finally other Russian speakers also disproportionately emigrated, So today the population is 1.3 million and Estonians are 69% of the population. Of course both Russians and Estonians have taken advantage of the new freedom to travel, but for the last 5 years the population has been increasing.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,709
    eek said:

    The China / Japan / South Korea trade deal is old news from last week - which is why I suspect the White House story about countries phoning up begging for deals isn’t exactly that true. They are going to be phoning up in a Nelson Muntz way (sorry no photo as I used that earlier today)
    It's obvious spin.

    Of course countries like Japan and S Korea (which has an election in under 2 months' time) are going to talk to the US.
    Begging summer less likely.

    Note it's only last week that Trump was demanding more money from S Korea in return for stationing US troops there - while at the same time his administration was messaging that the S Koreans would have to shoulder more of the burden of their own defence, as US forces there would in future be tasked to the defence of Taiwan.

    The messaging from the White House in general, and the lamentable press secretary in particular, has been utterly risible.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,038

    No, (as you would say), they voted against Corbyn. There have been numerous polls that demonstrated this but your love for the clownish charlatan blinds you. You are every bit as bad as the most stupid MAGA cult follower.
    No, they didn't just vote against Corbyn, for starters the redwall seats mostly voted FOR Corbyn in 2017
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,400
    HYUFD said:

    No, their voters hate globalisation and immigration too and are also protectionist
    Not very keen on Nigel´s American pal though.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,550
    DavidL said:

    If Tesla is going to survive Musk is going to have to sell it. What he has done to the brand with its main client base goes so far beyond Rattnering as to be on a different planet.
    Something to do with Uranus? Buggered?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,282

    I wonder if there's a market price for Vance taking over due to assassination?

    Historically speaking, betting markets are voided in the event of the death of the principal. The most recent example was when Boris got COVID. In the past people used to insure the king as a method of betting, but laws were brought in to prevent it and the concept of "insurable interest" was born. The Blair reforms in the Noughties messed this up, but the principle and common decency still apply.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,282
    edited April 9

    It's good that we are not governed by a panican.
    Starmer has a real problem saying no to aggressive/legalistic opponents. Famously he can beat the crap out of Labour lefties (see "Out", "Get In", etc) but he kneels to Trump every time. The word for that is not "panican"
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161
    Pulpstar said:

    Prohibition of "dual use" items to USA in place by China being introduced now. What we did to Russia back at the start of the Ukr war iirc.

    The cost to China of going to war to take Taiwan is a lot lower now that they can't make so much money selling things to the US, and the US is much less able to contest an invasion because they've alienated all their allies and have damaged their own economy.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,329
    DavidL said:

    If Tesla is going to survive Musk is going to have to sell it. What he has done to the brand with its main client base goes so far beyond Rattnering as to be on a different planet.
    About the only interplanetary travel he’ll manage.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,695
    Just picked up a bottle of cheapo Aussie Shiraz from the dodgier of two corner shops near me. Only noticed when I got it home it's from 2017. God knows which sofa they found it down the back of.

    Actually tastes pretty good.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,302

    The cost to China of going to war to take Taiwan is a lot lower now that they can't make so much money selling things to the US, and the US is much less able to contest an invasion because they've alienated all their allies and have damaged their own economy.
    I don’t want it to be the case, but I suspect it would be greeted in a lot of quarters by simply looking the other way now.

    The US will find it hard to assemble allies, and Europe will be too focussed on the Russian threat.
This discussion has been closed.