So Strava's sent me a message to say I have the third-fastest run time on a segment (part of a route).
Feeling rather proud, I logged in to see. And indeed, I was third fastest. On a segment on a new road.
That only three people had run along.
I'll still take that as a win.
Fantastic. That reminds me that I must visit those new Cambridge train stations sometime.
You mean Cambridge North and Cambridge South? North's been open some time but South is now not expected to open until early next year (2026): not because of construction delays to the station, but timetabling and resignalling work elsewhere. So if you want to get both at once, leave it until then.
I hope North revitalises that area somewhat: it's really near the science and business parks, but has always (*) felt a bit run-down.
Incidentally, in the spirit of PB pedantry could I point out that Vance did not serve in the US Army. He was a journalist in the Marine Corps. I have no idea if he has read any Greek classics.
He also seems to be on board with the Trump 'strategy'.
You know I really am beat as to what this strategy is, who is truly on board with it, and why.
I suspect there really is no strategy. Trump is winging it on the basis of the kind of economics espoused by red necked lounge lizards. The rest just nod along because it pays to do so....until it doesn't when they will reverse ferret immediately.
There are true believers, and for some Trump is in part a useful idiot currently going in their desired direction.
Have a listen here, especially to the integration of specific political policy with fundamentalist belief, and an identifying of divine aims with 'us'. That elevates policy to be unquestionable. I find that frightening. It starts fairly conventional, but then turns quite sinister - characterising 'woke' as almost a competing religion. 5 minute video.
"Rev. Dr. Uriesou Brito's prayer, opening the final day of the Washington DC National Conservatism Conference on July 10th, 2024." It's fascinating that the two people he quotes are GK Chesterton and CS Lewis; very USA. He identifies with a concept termed "biblical theocracy", which afaics is evolved Dominionism.
Imo it is the same for any fundamentalism - whether a version of evangelical here, socialist, free market, nationalist, or any other. Once reflection becomes impossible, you are lost.
On the feed there are also similar prayers from a Catholic (ex-Anglican) priest and a Rabbi - both are 1-2 minutes and far more conventional.
When are we going to stop pretending that those working from home are actually working?
Um... Even the Telegraph doesn't finger working from home and does, in fact, set out the assumed reasons. One not mentioned is presumably the increased number not in work?
Good article, Mr. F. The Athenians could've had a much better deal with the Spartans midway through the war, but hubris carried them away, and nemesis wasn't far behind.
Athens never missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity.
OTOH though it's fashionable, rightly, to emphasise the other sources of our civilization beyond the Greeks (and Jerusalem), if you took out Aristotle, Plato, Aeschylus, Sophocles, Homer, post Alexander Hellenism, the Greek speaking Eastern Empire, Thucydides, Herodotus and one or two others from our past there would be some gaps, and we would be a completely different people.
(On the plus side, the architecture of Edinburgh would be less gloomy).
A very different people.
And, you cannot even discuss government or law without using Roman concepts and terminology.
And, it’s all the more remarkable, when you consider that the vast majority of what was written by the ancients has vanished.
I am done with labour. If they are just going to pursue populist policies like kissing trumps arse, kicking downwards to hurt the poorest, insisting on red lines with the EU.... then their policies are just totally out of line with mine.
Labour insisting that it won't join the CU today - that was the straw that broke the dromedary. Just a total lack of solidarity with Canada and our European neighbours. My understanding is that even NZ aus and Jap would be interested in that arrangement. The UK would be out because Starmer appeases the populist right. To me he is like the cowardly lion. He needs to grow a pair.
Read the room Starmer. 2/3 of the electorate are rejoiners. They largely got you over the line in 2024.... and you are losing them.
They are a mix of white and East Asian - Russia and mongol/China essentially. Yet Russia has a media age of 40 and China is about the same (likewise USA, UK, France, all of us)
Here the media age is 27-29 and you really notice it. The exuberance
I wonder if Putin is minded to “re-absorb” Kazakhstan to ameliorate his demographic problem. They often speak Russian. The alphabet is Cyrillic. They are way less Muslim than Uzbekistan. Bars and pubs everywhere
When are we going to stop pretending that those working from home are actually working?
Have to say David, some of us work our socks off at home, but doubt I am the average.
Some of us don't bother putting our socks on in the first place.
I used to break in my ski boots while wearing a dressing gown. An odd mix. Fortunately that was in the days prior to zoom calls. I used to work from home before it was trendy, primarily because that was my office. I had nowhere else to go.
PS Skirting boards and ski boots don't mix well and the skirting boards lose.
There is much to Bessent analysis here re global imbalances obviously, but on the point about trade wars and surplus countries, they and the EU are finding that US stock markets are providing the most profound form of negotiation in and of themselves, as Handlesblatt reports:
Brussels is watching amazed, as Trump destroys the US economy. "Nobody in the Commission thought that the US government would be this stupid and self-destructive," an EU official tells me. "That they would blow up their own country by letting ChatGPT make their trade policy."
EU officials are quietly preparing brutal countermeasures — but they’re in no rush. Markets are doing the work for them.
Trump’s chaos is collapsing the US markets faster than any EU retaliation could. Inside the Commission and among EU governments, the mood is: Don't give Trump an excuse to blame this on others.
Inside the Commission and among EU trade ministers, the mood is calm — almost mocking. “We’ll just let them stew,” another senior official says. “If Trump doesn’t blink by the end of the month, we’re ready to hit hard.” But for now? They'll watch him sweat.
Habeck also mocked Elon Musk’s call for a US-EU "zero-tariff" deal: “It's sign of weakness and fear. If he has something to say, he should go to his President... Before we talk about zero tariffs, stop the nonsense and mess you just made in the last week.”
There is much to Bessent analysis here re global imbalances obviously, but on the point about trade wars and surplus countries, they and the EU are finding that US stock markets are providing the most profound form of negotiation in and of themselves, as Handlesblatt reports:
Brussels is watching amazed, as Trump destroys the US economy. "Nobody in the Commission thought that the US government would be this stupid and self-destructive," an EU official tells me. "That they would blow up their own country by letting ChatGPT make their trade policy."
EU officials are quietly preparing brutal countermeasures — but they’re in no rush. Markets are doing the work for them.
Trump’s chaos is collapsing the US markets faster than any EU retaliation could. Inside the Commission and among EU governments, the mood is: Don't give Trump an excuse to blame this on others.
Inside the Commission and among EU trade ministers, the mood is calm — almost mocking. “We’ll just let them stew,” another senior official says. “If Trump doesn’t blink by the end of the month, we’re ready to hit hard.” But for now? They'll watch him sweat.
Habeck also mocked Elon Musk’s call for a US-EU "zero-tariff" deal: “It's sign of weakness and fear. If he has something to say, he should go to his President... Before we talk about zero tariffs, stop the nonsense and mess you just made in the last week.”
They are a mix of white and East Asian - Russia and mongol/China essentially. Yet Russia has a media age of 40 and China is about the same (likewise USA, UK, France, all of us)
Here the media age is 27-29 and you really notice it. The exuberance
I wonder if Putin is minded to “re-absorb” Kazakhstan to ameliorate his demographic problem. They often speak Russian. The alphabet is Cyrillic. They are way less Muslim than Uzbekistan. Bars and pubs everywhere
Clearly I meant median age not “media” age. I’m not commenting on the relative youth of journalists. Blame auto complete and multitasking. I’m also looking for Trotsky’s old house
They are a mix of white and East Asian - Russia and mongol/China essentially. Yet Russia has a media age of 40 and China is about the same (likewise USA, UK, France, all of us)
Here the media age is 27-29 and you really notice it. The exuberance
I wonder if Putin is minded to “re-absorb” Kazakhstan to ameliorate his demographic problem. They often speak Russian. The alphabet is Cyrillic. They are way less Muslim than Uzbekistan. Bars and pubs everywhere
Leon met a lass She was not yet twenty one Near Almaty town.
@Foxy (or others with local experience) - I'm off to Leicester next month for a research meeting, hosted at De Montfort (near Castle Park). The recommended hotel is Holiday Inn Express next to King Power stadium, but that seems full. There's also a standard Holiday Inn* and Novotel nearby or a Premier Inn a bit further away, but next to the station, so no odds really. Any thoughts or other recommendations? Featherbedded academic budget is £140/night - in theory our administrator will book the cheapest on our travel system within a radius of the venue, but she has discretion and will generally book what I ask for as long as in budget (and sometimes beyond).
*I've not been to one of these for... well, I don't know how long - how do they compare to e.g. Premier Inn nowadays?
ETA: @DavidL - with this, I'm working from home while on PB
They are a mix of white and East Asian - Russia and mongol/China essentially. Yet Russia has a media age of 40 and China is about the same (likewise USA, UK, France, all of us)
Here the media age is 27-29 and you really notice it. The exuberance
I wonder if Putin is minded to “re-absorb” Kazakhstan to ameliorate his demographic problem. They often speak Russian. The alphabet is Cyrillic. They are way less Muslim than Uzbekistan. Bars and pubs everywhere
Would that secular-islam mix survive if Russia invaded? I suspect not.
Author of Mar A Lago accord concept that US tariff agenda is basically designed to cause negotiated dollar weakening, (now WH chief economist), gave speech yday which basically suggested that reserve status for dollar was a burden which others might need to “write checks” for
turns on its head the famous description of ex French President then fin minister Valéry Giscard d'Estaing the US enjoyed an “exorbitant privilege” with $ reserve status…
Instead Administration appears to believe this is an exorbitant burden for which US should be remunerated.
It’s part of a narrative that seeks to paint new tariffs (accepted without retaliation) as justifiable payment for burden of strong dollar (eg on US manufacturing exports and jobs)… this new mindset is extremely consequential. The tariffs aren’t going.
Dunning and Kruger would have a field day analysing the current US administration. But there must be some people in the US Cabinet who realise that we are seeing Orwell's "doublethink" applied to governance to a degree not seen before in an advanced economy. That we need to point to places like Cambodia or North Korea for comparisons with other governments pursuing the preposterous is telling.
The US is simultaneously the strongest but most attacked, the richest but most ripped-off, wants to trade with everyone and no-one, it's enemies are now allies, and it's allies now enemies. Up is down, black is white, etc.
"China exports lots of cheap stuff. If the US stops buying it, China will lose."
The problem, as they are finding out, is that US consumers like buying cheap Chinese stuff, and US manufacturers use lots of cheap Chinese stuff in their supply chains.
@Foxy (or others with local experience) - I'm off to Leicester next month for a research meeting, hosted at De Montfort (near Castle Park). The recommended hotel is Holiday Inn Express next to King Power stadium, but that seems full. There's also a standard Holiday Inn* and Novotel nearby or a Premier Inn a bit further away, but next to the station, so no odds really. Any thoughts or other recommendations? Featherbedded academic budget is £140/night - in theory our administrator will book the cheapest on our travel system within a radius of the venue, but she has discretion and will generally book what I ask for as long as in budget (and sometimes beyond).
*I've not been to one of these for... well, I don't know how long - how do they compare to e.g. Premier Inn nowadays?
ETA: @DavidL - with this, I'm working from home while on PB
If you're really on a budget, there's no issue with the Glenfield Lodge Guest House. Shared bathroom between rooms though.
When are we going to stop pretending that those working from home are actually working?
When are we going to stop pretending mass immigration is “essential” for economic growth?
We’ve had unprecedented immigration for 20 years or more and GDP per capita has been flat and public services have got worse. Mass immigration is a disaster
If anyone is looking for the actual numbers, UK GDP per capita was growing fast and consistently until 2007, and has been flat since then. There isn't an obvious link to levels of immigration or Brexit.
When are we going to stop pretending that those working from home are actually working?
When are we going to stop pretending mass immigration is “essential” for economic growth?
We’ve had unprecedented immigration for 20 years or more and GDP per capita has been flat and public services have got worse. Mass immigration is a disaster
If anyone is looking for the actual numbers, UK GDP per capita was growing fast and consistently until 2007, and has been flat since then. There isn't an obvious link to levels of immigration or Brexit.
@Foxy (or others with local experience) - I'm off to Leicester next month for a research meeting, hosted at De Montfort (near Castle Park). The recommended hotel is Holiday Inn Express next to King Power stadium, but that seems full. There's also a standard Holiday Inn* and Novotel nearby or a Premier Inn a bit further away, but next to the station, so no odds really. Any thoughts or other recommendations? Featherbedded academic budget is £140/night - in theory our administrator will book the cheapest on our travel system within a radius of the venue, but she has discretion and will generally book what I ask for as long as in budget (and sometimes beyond).
*I've not been to one of these for... well, I don't know how long - how do they compare to e.g. Premier Inn nowadays?
ETA: @DavidL - with this, I'm working from home while on PB
If you're really on a budget, there's no issue with the Glenfield Lodge Guest House. Shared bathroom between rooms though.
Thanks, probably looking more central though, ideally - between station and De Montfort or close to either. The budget covers the usual cheap business chains.
There is much to Bessent analysis here re global imbalances obviously, but on the point about trade wars and surplus countries, they and the EU are finding that US stock markets are providing the most profound form of negotiation in and of themselves, as Handlesblatt reports:
Brussels is watching amazed, as Trump destroys the US economy. "Nobody in the Commission thought that the US government would be this stupid and self-destructive," an EU official tells me. "That they would blow up their own country by letting ChatGPT make their trade policy."
EU officials are quietly preparing brutal countermeasures — but they’re in no rush. Markets are doing the work for them.
Trump’s chaos is collapsing the US markets faster than any EU retaliation could. Inside the Commission and among EU governments, the mood is: Don't give Trump an excuse to blame this on others.
Inside the Commission and among EU trade ministers, the mood is calm — almost mocking. “We’ll just let them stew,” another senior official says. “If Trump doesn’t blink by the end of the month, we’re ready to hit hard.” But for now? They'll watch him sweat.
Habeck also mocked Elon Musk’s call for a US-EU "zero-tariff" deal: “It's sign of weakness and fear. If he has something to say, he should go to his President... Before we talk about zero tariffs, stop the nonsense and mess you just made in the last week.”
There is much to Bessent analysis here re global imbalances obviously, but on the point about trade wars and surplus countries, they and the EU are finding that US stock markets are providing the most profound form of negotiation in and of themselves, as Handlesblatt reports:
Brussels is watching amazed, as Trump destroys the US economy. "Nobody in the Commission thought that the US government would be this stupid and self-destructive," an EU official tells me. "That they would blow up their own country by letting ChatGPT make their trade policy."
EU officials are quietly preparing brutal countermeasures — but they’re in no rush. Markets are doing the work for them.
Trump’s chaos is collapsing the US markets faster than any EU retaliation could. Inside the Commission and among EU governments, the mood is: Don't give Trump an excuse to blame this on others.
Inside the Commission and among EU trade ministers, the mood is calm — almost mocking. “We’ll just let them stew,” another senior official says. “If Trump doesn’t blink by the end of the month, we’re ready to hit hard.” But for now? They'll watch him sweat.
Habeck also mocked Elon Musk’s call for a US-EU "zero-tariff" deal: “It's sign of weakness and fear. If he has something to say, he should go to his President... Before we talk about zero tariffs, stop the nonsense and mess you just made in the last week.”
Thank goodness for Brexit and that we are out of the EU then.
"Hitting back hard" is cutting off your nose to spite your face.
'America is hurting because of their self-imposed tariffs, so if they don't blink we're going to retaliate by doing the exact same thing ourselves.'
Its the definition of madness.
We should follow the proudest British traditions of free trade and keep calm and carry on. No retaliation.
Tariffs are a form of economic warfare.
Trump essentially wants to punch others in the face, but says that he doesn't want them to him punch back in the face.
In actual fact, he despises those fail to punch back because he considers them "weak" & "holding no cards", and respects those like China who do punch back.
The correct strategy is to demonstrate "strength" to Trump by punching back hard, the way that China is doing.
There is much to Bessent analysis here re global imbalances obviously, but on the point about trade wars and surplus countries, they and the EU are finding that US stock markets are providing the most profound form of negotiation in and of themselves, as Handlesblatt reports:
Brussels is watching amazed, as Trump destroys the US economy. "Nobody in the Commission thought that the US government would be this stupid and self-destructive," an EU official tells me. "That they would blow up their own country by letting ChatGPT make their trade policy."
EU officials are quietly preparing brutal countermeasures — but they’re in no rush. Markets are doing the work for them.
Trump’s chaos is collapsing the US markets faster than any EU retaliation could. Inside the Commission and among EU governments, the mood is: Don't give Trump an excuse to blame this on others.
Inside the Commission and among EU trade ministers, the mood is calm — almost mocking. “We’ll just let them stew,” another senior official says. “If Trump doesn’t blink by the end of the month, we’re ready to hit hard.” But for now? They'll watch him sweat.
Habeck also mocked Elon Musk’s call for a US-EU "zero-tariff" deal: “It's sign of weakness and fear. If he has something to say, he should go to his President... Before we talk about zero tariffs, stop the nonsense and mess you just made in the last week.”
Am I right in thinking that the famous dictum you quote came to be used ironically, as a lesson in the value and necessity of diplomacy? In other words, the crude bullying of the weak by the strong became an example of how not to do things.
Or did the Greeks never learn?
Thanks, and no they did not. It's striking that people who invented political philosophy were so bad at politics in practice.
Sparta, the victor of the Pelopennesian War, rapidly made itself as hated as Athens had been. Sparta kept the spoils of the war to itself (a significant mark of disrespect to peer powers like Thebes and Corinth that fought Athens); it launched a war to "liberate" Greek cities under Persian rule, which in practice meant placing them under Spartan governors who fleeced them; then it abandoned them, in favour of becoming Persia's enforcer, in Greece. Sparta's own military power was shattered at the Battle of Leuktra in 371.
The one major Greek figure who was a skilled diplomat (as well as a skilled general) was Philip II, the father of Alexander the Great. He made a point of wooing his opponents, and offering them generous terms, following defeat. After him, the Macedonians ruled Greece with the same lack of tact as earlier powers had done.
It was a big "glass jaw" for the Hellenistic monarchies that fought Rome, that in general, they ruled over huge numbers of very unwilling subjects. They could field big armies, but a very high proportion of those armies were used to hold down provinces that would otherwise have revolted.
The Romans however, very much internalised this lesson. They were (compared to the Greeks), excellent diplomats, who almost always left something on the table for their allies, shared spoils equally with them in war, and took very seriously their obligations to defend them.
Am I right in thinking that the famous dictum you quote came to be used ironically, as a lesson in the value and necessity of diplomacy? In other words, the crude bullying of the weak by the strong became an example of how not to do things.
Or did the Greeks never learn?
Thanks, and no they did not. It's striking that people who invented political philosophy were so bad at politics in practice.
Sparta, the victor of the Pelopennesian War, rapidly made itself as hated as Athens had been. Sparta kept the spoils of the war to itself (a significant mark of disrespect to peer powers like Thebes and Corinth that fought Athens); it launched a war to "liberate" Greek cities under Persian rule, which in practice meant placing them under Spartan governors who fleeced them; then it abandoned them, in favour of becoming Persia's enforcer, in Greece. Sparta's own military power was shattered at the Battle of Leuktra in 371.
The one major Greek figure who was a skilled diplomat (as well as a skilled general) was Philip II, the father of Alexander the Great. He made a point of wooing his opponents, and offering them generous terms, following defeat. After him, the Macedonians ruled Greece with the same lack of tact as earlier powers had done.
It was a big "glass jaw" for the Hellenistic monarchies that fought Rome, that in general, they ruled over huge numbers of very unwilling subjects. They could field big armies, but a very high proportion of those armies were used to hold down provinces that would otherwise have revolted.
The Romans however, very much internalised this lesson. They were (compared to the Greeks), excellent diplomats, who almost always left something on the table for their allies, shared spoils equally with them in war, and took very seriously their obligations to defend them.
Thanks Sean.
You confirm the impression I have gathered rather late in life that the stereotupe is wrong. It was the Romans who were smart, and the Greeks a bit dumb, at least when it came to conquer and rule.
Fascinating.
The Romans lagged the Greeks in terms of the arts, philosophy, mathematics, and speculative thinking.
In terms of law, political science, logistics, and military science, they were in a completely different league.
The Roman way of empire was without doubt the best approach. Conquer your neighbours but then sell them the dream of being Roman, with the elites becoming Roman elites, with all the modern trappings - heating, luxury bathing, a common language, trade over thousands of miles, potential for advancement within the system. Add in usually being decent conquerers (unless you make the mistake of rebelling, of course...) and yes, the willingness of Rome to defend their newly minted territories and you have a powerful mix.
They are a mix of white and East Asian - Russia and mongol/China essentially. Yet Russia has a media age of 40 and China is about the same (likewise USA, UK, France, all of us)
Here the media age is 27-29 and you really notice it. The exuberance
I wonder if Putin is minded to “re-absorb” Kazakhstan to ameliorate his demographic problem. They often speak Russian. The alphabet is Cyrillic. They are way less Muslim than Uzbekistan. Bars and pubs everywhere
Leon met a lass She was not yet twenty one Near Almaty town.
Leon met a lass He noticed her exuberance She noticed his protuberance
Statement from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce last night—“The US threat to escalate tariffs on China is a mistake on top of a mistake. If the US insists on its own way, China will fight to the end.”
China also called for dialogue to resolve disputes in its statement.
When are we going to stop pretending that those working from home are actually working?
The article suggests the problems are falling oil extraction, lack of investment, and unreliable economic statistics.
Meanwhile, pro-ID card Labour MPs think the productivity problem is not enough ID cards:-
The letter calls on the government to revive the idea of ID cards – a hugely controversial policy proposal during Tony Blair’s era – but said digital IDs were the right route for the modern economy. It said it would mean that citizens could “engage with the state more seamlessly”, including booking GP appointments, renewing passports or paying tax.
When are we going to stop pretending that those working from home are actually working?
The article suggests the problems are falling oil extraction, lack of investment, and unreliable economic statistics.
Meanwhile, pro-ID card Labour MPs think the productivity problem is not enough ID cards:-
The letter calls on the government to revive the idea of ID cards – a hugely controversial policy proposal during Tony Blair’s era – but said digital IDs were the right route for the modern economy. It said it would mean that citizens could “engage with the state more seamlessly”, including booking GP appointments, renewing passports or paying tax.
When are we going to stop pretending that those working from home are actually working?
When are we going to stop pretending mass immigration is “essential” for economic growth?
We’ve had unprecedented immigration for 20 years or more and GDP per capita has been flat and public services have got worse. Mass immigration is a disaster
If anyone is looking for the actual numbers, UK GDP per capita was growing fast and consistently until 2007, and has been flat since then. There isn't an obvious link to levels of immigration or Brexit.
Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 1h Reply to Rob Ford So if the Home Office wants to reduce student migration numbers it needs to explain why it considers British families paying more for uni and/or the largest employer in many red wall towns going under is a price worth paying to reduce a form of migration that bothers no one
Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 1h Any Labour SpAd arguing for restricting student imm should be sat down in front of a map and asked three Qs: 1. Where do you think the unis in most financial trouble are? 2. How many people rely on them for jobs and income? 3. Which party represents these seats?
I am done with labour. If they are just going to pursue populist policies like kissing trumps arse, kicking downwards to hurt the poorest, insisting on red lines with the EU.... then their policies are just totally out of line with mine.
Labour insisting that it won't join the CU today - that was the straw that broke the dromedary. Just a total lack of solidarity with Canada and our European neighbours. My understanding is that even NZ aus and Jap would be interested in that arrangement. The UK would be out because Starmer appeases the populist right. To me he is like the cowardly lion. He needs to grow a pair.
Read the room Starmer. 2/3 of the electorate are rejoiners. They largely got you over the line in 2024.... and you are losing them.
Not joining the EU customs union shows a lack of solidarity with Canada???
I am done with labour. If they are just going to pursue populist policies like kissing trumps arse, kicking downwards to hurt the poorest, insisting on red lines with the EU.... then their policies are just totally out of line with mine.
Labour insisting that it won't join the CU today - that was the straw that broke the dromedary. Just a total lack of solidarity with Canada and our European neighbours. My understanding is that even NZ aus and Jap would be interested in that arrangement. The UK would be out because Starmer appeases the populist right. To me he is like the cowardly lion. He needs to grow a pair.
Read the room Starmer. 2/3 of the electorate are rejoiners. They largely got you over the line in 2024.... and you are losing them.
Kissing Trump's arse is the very opposite of a populist policy.
When are we going to stop pretending that those working from home are actually working?
The article suggests the problems are falling oil extraction, lack of investment, and unreliable economic statistics.
Meanwhile, pro-ID card Labour MPs think the productivity problem is not enough ID cards:-
The letter calls on the government to revive the idea of ID cards – a hugely controversial policy proposal during Tony Blair’s era – but said digital IDs were the right route for the modern economy. It said it would mean that citizens could “engage with the state more seamlessly”, including booking GP appointments, renewing passports or paying tax.
It might also flush out the hundred of thousands (millions?) who are working illegally.
Indeed, but we could eliminate that problem by becoming a cashless society rather than having draconian ID cards.
ID cards are not really draconian. Its only the potential application by the state that makes it so. For instance you have to show ID such as a passport when being employed at my Uni - an ID card would do that. You could show it at the GP or hospital. Lots of benefits to it.
@Foxy (or others with local experience) - I'm off to Leicester next month for a research meeting, hosted at De Montfort (near Castle Park). The recommended hotel is Holiday Inn Express next to King Power stadium, but that seems full. There's also a standard Holiday Inn* and Novotel nearby or a Premier Inn a bit further away, but next to the station, so no odds really. Any thoughts or other recommendations? Featherbedded academic budget is £140/night - in theory our administrator will book the cheapest on our travel system within a radius of the venue, but she has discretion and will generally book what I ask for as long as in budget (and sometimes beyond).
*I've not been to one of these for... well, I don't know how long - how do they compare to e.g. Premier Inn nowadays?
ETA: @DavidL - with this, I'm working from home while on PB
I stayed in that Holiday Inn last year - it’s OK but the car park was seriously expensive (to the point I remember that way more than the rest of the hotel). Also finding the car park entrance is “fun”
There is much to Bessent analysis here re global imbalances obviously, but on the point about trade wars and surplus countries, they and the EU are finding that US stock markets are providing the most profound form of negotiation in and of themselves, as Handlesblatt reports:
Brussels is watching amazed, as Trump destroys the US economy. "Nobody in the Commission thought that the US government would be this stupid and self-destructive," an EU official tells me. "That they would blow up their own country by letting ChatGPT make their trade policy."
EU officials are quietly preparing brutal countermeasures — but they’re in no rush. Markets are doing the work for them.
Trump’s chaos is collapsing the US markets faster than any EU retaliation could. Inside the Commission and among EU governments, the mood is: Don't give Trump an excuse to blame this on others.
Inside the Commission and among EU trade ministers, the mood is calm — almost mocking. “We’ll just let them stew,” another senior official says. “If Trump doesn’t blink by the end of the month, we’re ready to hit hard.” But for now? They'll watch him sweat.
Habeck also mocked Elon Musk’s call for a US-EU "zero-tariff" deal: “It's sign of weakness and fear. If he has something to say, he should go to his President... Before we talk about zero tariffs, stop the nonsense and mess you just made in the last week.”
Thank goodness for Brexit and that we are out of the EU then.
"Hitting back hard" is cutting off your nose to spite your face.
'America is hurting because of their self-imposed tariffs, so if they don't blink we're going to retaliate by doing the exact same thing ourselves.'
Its the definition of madness.
We should follow the proudest British traditions of free trade and keep calm and carry on. No retaliation.
Tariffs are a form of economic warfare.
Trump essentially wants to punch others in the face, but says that he doesn't want them to him punch back in the face.
In actual fact, he despises those fail to punch back because he considers them "weak" & "holding no cards", and respects those like China who do punch back.
The correct strategy is to demonstrate "strength" to Trump by punching back hard, the way that China is doing.
The US are punching themselves in the face. Why would we want to do the same?
When are we going to stop pretending that those working from home are actually working?
The article suggests the problems are falling oil extraction, lack of investment, and unreliable economic statistics.
Meanwhile, pro-ID card Labour MPs think the productivity problem is not enough ID cards:-
The letter calls on the government to revive the idea of ID cards – a hugely controversial policy proposal during Tony Blair’s era – but said digital IDs were the right route for the modern economy. It said it would mean that citizens could “engage with the state more seamlessly”, including booking GP appointments, renewing passports or paying tax.
It might also flush out the hundred of thousands (millions?) who are working illegally.
Indeed, but we could eliminate that problem by becoming a cashless society rather than having draconian ID cards.
ID cards are not really draconian. Its only the potential application by the state that makes it so. For instance you have to show ID such as a passport when being employed at my Uni - an ID card would do that. You could show it at the GP or hospital. Lots of benefits to it.
There is much to Bessent analysis here re global imbalances obviously, but on the point about trade wars and surplus countries, they and the EU are finding that US stock markets are providing the most profound form of negotiation in and of themselves, as Handlesblatt reports:
Brussels is watching amazed, as Trump destroys the US economy. "Nobody in the Commission thought that the US government would be this stupid and self-destructive," an EU official tells me. "That they would blow up their own country by letting ChatGPT make their trade policy."
EU officials are quietly preparing brutal countermeasures — but they’re in no rush. Markets are doing the work for them.
Trump’s chaos is collapsing the US markets faster than any EU retaliation could. Inside the Commission and among EU governments, the mood is: Don't give Trump an excuse to blame this on others.
Inside the Commission and among EU trade ministers, the mood is calm — almost mocking. “We’ll just let them stew,” another senior official says. “If Trump doesn’t blink by the end of the month, we’re ready to hit hard.” But for now? They'll watch him sweat.
Habeck also mocked Elon Musk’s call for a US-EU "zero-tariff" deal: “It's sign of weakness and fear. If he has something to say, he should go to his President... Before we talk about zero tariffs, stop the nonsense and mess you just made in the last week.”
Thank goodness for Brexit and that we are out of the EU then.
"Hitting back hard" is cutting off your nose to spite your face.
'America is hurting because of their self-imposed tariffs, so if they don't blink we're going to retaliate by doing the exact same thing ourselves.'
Its the definition of madness.
We should follow the proudest British traditions of free trade and keep calm and carry on. No retaliation.
Tariffs are a form of economic warfare.
Trump essentially wants to punch others in the face, but says that he doesn't want them to him punch back in the face.
In actual fact, he despises those fail to punch back because he considers them "weak" & "holding no cards", and respects those like China who do punch back.
The correct strategy is to demonstrate "strength" to Trump by punching back hard, the way that China is doing.
The correct strategy will vary from country to country.
For many countries allowing both the USA and China be damaged by them having a trade war is the correct strategy.
When are we going to stop pretending that those working from home are actually working?
The article suggests the problems are falling oil extraction, lack of investment, and unreliable economic statistics.
Meanwhile, pro-ID card Labour MPs think the productivity problem is not enough ID cards:-
The letter calls on the government to revive the idea of ID cards – a hugely controversial policy proposal during Tony Blair’s era – but said digital IDs were the right route for the modern economy. It said it would mean that citizens could “engage with the state more seamlessly”, including booking GP appointments, renewing passports or paying tax.
It might also flush out the hundred of thousands (millions?) who are working illegally.
Indeed, but we could eliminate that problem by becoming a cashless society rather than having draconian ID cards.
ID cards are not really draconian. Its only the potential application by the state that makes it so. For instance you have to show ID such as a passport when being employed at my Uni - an ID card would do that. You could show it at the GP or hospital. Lots of benefits to it.
When are we going to stop pretending that those working from home are actually working?
The article suggests the problems are falling oil extraction, lack of investment, and unreliable economic statistics.
Meanwhile, pro-ID card Labour MPs think the productivity problem is not enough ID cards:-
The letter calls on the government to revive the idea of ID cards – a hugely controversial policy proposal during Tony Blair’s era – but said digital IDs were the right route for the modern economy. It said it would mean that citizens could “engage with the state more seamlessly”, including booking GP appointments, renewing passports or paying tax.
It might also flush out the hundred of thousands (millions?) who are working illegally.
Indeed, but we could eliminate that problem by becoming a cashless society rather than having draconian ID cards.
ID cards are not really draconian. Its only the potential application by the state that makes it so. For instance you have to show ID such as a passport when being employed at my Uni - an ID card would do that. You could show it at the GP or hospital. Lots of benefits to it.
They are a mix of white and East Asian - Russia and mongol/China essentially. Yet Russia has a media age of 40 and China is about the same (likewise USA, UK, France, all of us)
Here the media age is 27-29 and you really notice it. The exuberance
I wonder if Putin is minded to “re-absorb” Kazakhstan to ameliorate his demographic problem. They often speak Russian. The alphabet is Cyrillic. They are way less Muslim than Uzbekistan. Bars and pubs everywhere
Would that secular-islam mix survive if Russia invaded? I suspect not.
Judging by Almaty, its biggest city and cultural capital, Kazakhstan is far less Islamic than the UK
I’ve seen a tiny handful of headscarves. Booze is ubiquitous. Everyone dresses like they are in Beijing or Moscow. Not a hint of religiosity
I’ve just been into the famous green bazaar and you can’t move for pork - and also horse meat - entire aisles of it
Why didn’t Putin invade Kazakhstan?! I can’t see them fighting back the way Ukraine has done
When are we going to stop pretending that those working from home are actually working?
The article suggests the problems are falling oil extraction, lack of investment, and unreliable economic statistics.
Meanwhile, pro-ID card Labour MPs think the productivity problem is not enough ID cards:-
The letter calls on the government to revive the idea of ID cards – a hugely controversial policy proposal during Tony Blair’s era – but said digital IDs were the right route for the modern economy. It said it would mean that citizens could “engage with the state more seamlessly”, including booking GP appointments, renewing passports or paying tax.
It might also flush out the hundred of thousands (millions?) who are working illegally.
Indeed, but we could eliminate that problem by becoming a cashless society rather than having draconian ID cards.
ID cards are not really draconian. Its only the potential application by the state that makes it so. For instance you have to show ID such as a passport when being employed at my Uni - an ID card would do that. You could show it at the GP or hospital. Lots of benefits to it.
ID cards are profoundly unBritish.
Are they? In what way?
Set the people free were the words of Winston Churchill when he abolished war time ID cards.
@Foxy (or others with local experience) - I'm off to Leicester next month for a research meeting, hosted at De Montfort (near Castle Park). The recommended hotel is Holiday Inn Express next to King Power stadium, but that seems full. There's also a standard Holiday Inn* and Novotel nearby or a Premier Inn a bit further away, but next to the station, so no odds really. Any thoughts or other recommendations? Featherbedded academic budget is £140/night - in theory our administrator will book the cheapest on our travel system within a radius of the venue, but she has discretion and will generally book what I ask for as long as in budget (and sometimes beyond).
*I've not been to one of these for... well, I don't know how long - how do they compare to e.g. Premier Inn nowadays?
ETA: @DavidL - with this, I'm working from home while on PB
I stayed in that Holiday Inn last year - it’s OK but the car park was seriously expensive (to the point I remember that way more than the rest of the hotel). Also finding the car park entrance is “fun”
Train happily, so parking not a problem. I did raise an eyebrow at it being apparently located in the middle of a roundabout though
When are we going to stop pretending that those working from home are actually working?
The article suggests the problems are falling oil extraction, lack of investment, and unreliable economic statistics.
Meanwhile, pro-ID card Labour MPs think the productivity problem is not enough ID cards:-
The letter calls on the government to revive the idea of ID cards – a hugely controversial policy proposal during Tony Blair’s era – but said digital IDs were the right route for the modern economy. It said it would mean that citizens could “engage with the state more seamlessly”, including booking GP appointments, renewing passports or paying tax.
It might also flush out the hundred of thousands (millions?) who are working illegally.
Indeed, but we could eliminate that problem by becoming a cashless society rather than having draconian ID cards.
ID cards are not really draconian. Its only the potential application by the state that makes it so. For instance you have to show ID such as a passport when being employed at my Uni - an ID card would do that. You could show it at the GP or hospital. Lots of benefits to it.
ID cards are profoundly unBritish.
Are they? In what way?
Set the people free were the words of Winston Churchill when he abolished war time ID cards.
And yet the Brits love order, a queue, fairness. All these are things that ID cards could support.
There is much to Bessent analysis here re global imbalances obviously, but on the point about trade wars and surplus countries, they and the EU are finding that US stock markets are providing the most profound form of negotiation in and of themselves, as Handlesblatt reports:
Brussels is watching amazed, as Trump destroys the US economy. "Nobody in the Commission thought that the US government would be this stupid and self-destructive," an EU official tells me. "That they would blow up their own country by letting ChatGPT make their trade policy."
EU officials are quietly preparing brutal countermeasures — but they’re in no rush. Markets are doing the work for them.
Trump’s chaos is collapsing the US markets faster than any EU retaliation could. Inside the Commission and among EU governments, the mood is: Don't give Trump an excuse to blame this on others.
Inside the Commission and among EU trade ministers, the mood is calm — almost mocking. “We’ll just let them stew,” another senior official says. “If Trump doesn’t blink by the end of the month, we’re ready to hit hard.” But for now? They'll watch him sweat.
Habeck also mocked Elon Musk’s call for a US-EU "zero-tariff" deal: “It's sign of weakness and fear. If he has something to say, he should go to his President... Before we talk about zero tariffs, stop the nonsense and mess you just made in the last week.”
Thank goodness for Brexit and that we are out of the EU then.
"Hitting back hard" is cutting off your nose to spite your face.
'America is hurting because of their self-imposed tariffs, so if they don't blink we're going to retaliate by doing the exact same thing ourselves.'
Its the definition of madness.
We should follow the proudest British traditions of free trade and keep calm and carry on. No retaliation.
Tariffs are a form of economic warfare.
Trump essentially wants to punch others in the face, but says that he doesn't want them to him punch back in the face.
In actual fact, he despises those fail to punch back because he considers them "weak" & "holding no cards", and respects those like China who do punch back.
The correct strategy is to demonstrate "strength" to Trump by punching back hard, the way that China is doing.
You could punch back by doing something other than imposing tariffs. Not sure what, but I am not sure it even has to be trade-related. If you believe in free trade then engaging in a tariff war seems suboptimal.
When are we going to stop pretending that those working from home are actually working?
The article suggests the problems are falling oil extraction, lack of investment, and unreliable economic statistics.
Meanwhile, pro-ID card Labour MPs think the productivity problem is not enough ID cards:-
The letter calls on the government to revive the idea of ID cards – a hugely controversial policy proposal during Tony Blair’s era – but said digital IDs were the right route for the modern economy. It said it would mean that citizens could “engage with the state more seamlessly”, including booking GP appointments, renewing passports or paying tax.
It might also flush out the hundred of thousands (millions?) who are working illegally.
It might but surely even illegal workers contribute to GDP. There might be lots of good reasons for using ID cards to stop illegal workers from working, but boosting productivity is not one of them, pace these Labour MPs.
When are we going to stop pretending that those working from home are actually working?
The article suggests the problems are falling oil extraction, lack of investment, and unreliable economic statistics.
Meanwhile, pro-ID card Labour MPs think the productivity problem is not enough ID cards:-
The letter calls on the government to revive the idea of ID cards – a hugely controversial policy proposal during Tony Blair’s era – but said digital IDs were the right route for the modern economy. It said it would mean that citizens could “engage with the state more seamlessly”, including booking GP appointments, renewing passports or paying tax.
It might also flush out the hundred of thousands (millions?) who are working illegally.
Indeed, but we could eliminate that problem by becoming a cashless society rather than having draconian ID cards.
ID cards are not really draconian. Its only the potential application by the state that makes it so. For instance you have to show ID such as a passport when being employed at my Uni - an ID card would do that. You could show it at the GP or hospital. Lots of benefits to it.
Could would rapidly become must in lots of other life situations.
Am I right in thinking that the famous dictum you quote came to be used ironically, as a lesson in the value and necessity of diplomacy? In other words, the crude bullying of the weak by the strong became an example of how not to do things.
Or did the Greeks never learn?
Thanks, and no they did not. It's striking that people who invented political philosophy were so bad at politics in practice.
Sparta, the victor of the Pelopennesian War, rapidly made itself as hated as Athens had been. Sparta kept the spoils of the war to itself (a significant mark of disrespect to peer powers like Thebes and Corinth that fought Athens); it launched a war to "liberate" Greek cities under Persian rule, which in practice meant placing them under Spartan governors who fleeced them; then it abandoned them, in favour of becoming Persia's enforcer, in Greece. Sparta's own military power was shattered at the Battle of Leuktra in 371.
The one major Greek figure who was a skilled diplomat (as well as a skilled general) was Philip II, the father of Alexander the Great. He made a point of wooing his opponents, and offering them generous terms, following defeat. After him, the Macedonians ruled Greece with the same lack of tact as earlier powers had done.
It was a big "glass jaw" for the Hellenistic monarchies that fought Rome, that in general, they ruled over huge numbers of very unwilling subjects. They could field big armies, but a very high proportion of those armies were used to hold down provinces that would otherwise have revolted.
The Romans however, very much internalised this lesson. They were (compared to the Greeks), excellent diplomats, who almost always left something on the table for their allies, shared spoils equally with them in war, and took very seriously their obligations to defend them.
Am I right in thinking that the famous dictum you quote came to be used ironically, as a lesson in the value and necessity of diplomacy? In other words, the crude bullying of the weak by the strong became an example of how not to do things.
Or did the Greeks never learn?
Thanks, and no they did not. It's striking that people who invented political philosophy were so bad at politics in practice.
Sparta, the victor of the Pelopennesian War, rapidly made itself as hated as Athens had been. Sparta kept the spoils of the war to itself (a significant mark of disrespect to peer powers like Thebes and Corinth that fought Athens); it launched a war to "liberate" Greek cities under Persian rule, which in practice meant placing them under Spartan governors who fleeced them; then it abandoned them, in favour of becoming Persia's enforcer, in Greece. Sparta's own military power was shattered at the Battle of Leuktra in 371.
The one major Greek figure who was a skilled diplomat (as well as a skilled general) was Philip II, the father of Alexander the Great. He made a point of wooing his opponents, and offering them generous terms, following defeat. After him, the Macedonians ruled Greece with the same lack of tact as earlier powers had done.
It was a big "glass jaw" for the Hellenistic monarchies that fought Rome, that in general, they ruled over huge numbers of very unwilling subjects. They could field big armies, but a very high proportion of those armies were used to hold down provinces that would otherwise have revolted.
The Romans however, very much internalised this lesson. They were (compared to the Greeks), excellent diplomats, who almost always left something on the table for their allies, shared spoils equally with them in war, and took very seriously their obligations to defend them.
Thanks Sean.
You confirm the impression I have gathered rather late in life that the stereotupe is wrong. It was the Romans who were smart, and the Greeks a bit dumb, at least when it came to conquer and rule.
Fascinating.
The Romans lagged the Greeks in terms of the arts, philosophy, mathematics, and speculative thinking.
In terms of law, political science, logistics, and military science, they were in a completely different league.
The Roman way of empire was without doubt the best approach. Conquer your neighbours but then sell them the dream of being Roman, with the elites becoming Roman elites, with all the modern trappings - heating, luxury bathing, a common language, trade over thousands of miles, potential for advancement within the system. Add in usually being decent conquerers (unless you make the mistake of rebelling, of course...) and yes, the willingness of Rome to defend their newly minted territories and you have a powerful mix.
The conquest phase lasted about 165 years, up till the end of the reign of Augustus, and was largely due to the ambitions of soldier politicians running out of control.
Both before and after that period, Rome’s leaders preferred a more indirect form of control and overlordship.
What could be a more dramatic statement of power than to send out a proconsul with a dozen lictors, to confront a monarch at the head of 50,000 men, and order him not to attack Rome’s local ally if he knows what’s good for him - and have him turn tail 90% of the time?
Author of Mar A Lago accord concept that US tariff agenda is basically designed to cause negotiated dollar weakening, (now WH chief economist), gave speech yday which basically suggested that reserve status for dollar was a burden which others might need to “write checks” for
turns on its head the famous description of ex French President then fin minister Valéry Giscard d'Estaing the US enjoyed an “exorbitant privilege” with $ reserve status…
Instead Administration appears to believe this is an exorbitant burden for which US should be remunerated.
It’s part of a narrative that seeks to paint new tariffs (accepted without retaliation) as justifiable payment for burden of strong dollar (eg on US manufacturing exports and jobs)… this new mindset is extremely consequential. The tariffs aren’t going.
Dunning and Kruger would have a field day analysing the current US administration. But there must be some people in the US Cabinet who realise that we are seeing Orwell's "doublethink" applied to governance to a degree not seen before in an advanced economy. That we need to point to places like Cambodia or North Korea for comparisons with other governments pursuing the preposterous is telling.
The US is simultaneously the strongest but most attacked, the richest but most ripped-off, wants to trade with everyone and no-one, it's enemies are now allies, and it's allies now enemies. Up is down, black is white, etc.
Four years of this nonsense will end in calamity.
Yes, but victim status claiming is standard nowadays. Makes you top dog.
1/ Based on ongoing discussions in China, I am skeptical Beijing will blink on Pres. Trump’s recent tariff escalation threats. Chinese leaders understand holding firm will be economically costly. They’re preparing public to tolerate pain. Politics may drive decisions.
2/ Beijing doesn’t expect any breakthroughs or negotiations with Trump administration on horizon. They are digging in. They do not have clarity on what Trump is trying to achieve and are filling the vacuum with their own assumption, i.e., Trump’s goal is to undermine PRC economy.
3/ PRC leaders are skeptical that capitulating to Trump’s latest demands would resolve underlying challenge from the United States, which they judge is to undermine PRC economic strength. From this vantage, they assume there is little incentive to make concessions now.
4/ Xi also has his own politics to manage. He likely will go to great lengths to protect his political brand as a strong defender of national pride and honor. He doesn’t want to allow a perception to emerge at home or abroad of being muscled around by Trump.
5/ In other words, there are factors larger than raw calculations of economic output that will drive decisions in Beijing. Anyone expecting that Beijing will need to fold to protect its economic interests likely will be disappointed.
6/ Beijing won’t be able to match US escalation, but may look for other asymmetric response options. Official media will signal defiance and resolve. Beijing may tout inroads in external markets and promote domestic consumption. We’re far from end of story. Buckle up! End.
Author of Mar A Lago accord concept that US tariff agenda is basically designed to cause negotiated dollar weakening, (now WH chief economist), gave speech yday which basically suggested that reserve status for dollar was a burden which others might need to “write checks” for
turns on its head the famous description of ex French President then fin minister Valéry Giscard d'Estaing the US enjoyed an “exorbitant privilege” with $ reserve status…
Instead Administration appears to believe this is an exorbitant burden for which US should be remunerated.
It’s part of a narrative that seeks to paint new tariffs (accepted without retaliation) as justifiable payment for burden of strong dollar (eg on US manufacturing exports and jobs)… this new mindset is extremely consequential. The tariffs aren’t going.
Dunning and Kruger would have a field day analysing the current US administration. But there must be some people in the US Cabinet who realise that we are seeing Orwell's "doublethink" applied to governance to a degree not seen before in an advanced economy. That we need to point to places like Cambodia or North Korea for comparisons with other governments pursuing the preposterous is telling.
The US is simultaneously the strongest but most attacked, the richest but most ripped-off, wants to trade with everyone and no-one, it's enemies are now allies, and it's allies now enemies. Up is down, black is white, etc.
Four years of this nonsense will end in calamity.
Yes, but victim status claiming is standard nowadays. Makes you top dog.
Hardline nationalists, on both right and left, tend to combine triumphalism with self-pity.
There is much to Bessent analysis here re global imbalances obviously, but on the point about trade wars and surplus countries, they and the EU are finding that US stock markets are providing the most profound form of negotiation in and of themselves, as Handlesblatt reports:
Brussels is watching amazed, as Trump destroys the US economy. "Nobody in the Commission thought that the US government would be this stupid and self-destructive," an EU official tells me. "That they would blow up their own country by letting ChatGPT make their trade policy."
EU officials are quietly preparing brutal countermeasures — but they’re in no rush. Markets are doing the work for them.
Trump’s chaos is collapsing the US markets faster than any EU retaliation could. Inside the Commission and among EU governments, the mood is: Don't give Trump an excuse to blame this on others.
Inside the Commission and among EU trade ministers, the mood is calm — almost mocking. “We’ll just let them stew,” another senior official says. “If Trump doesn’t blink by the end of the month, we’re ready to hit hard.” But for now? They'll watch him sweat.
Habeck also mocked Elon Musk’s call for a US-EU "zero-tariff" deal: “It's sign of weakness and fear. If he has something to say, he should go to his President... Before we talk about zero tariffs, stop the nonsense and mess you just made in the last week.”
Thank goodness for Brexit and that we are out of the EU then.
"Hitting back hard" is cutting off your nose to spite your face.
'America is hurting because of their self-imposed tariffs, so if they don't blink we're going to retaliate by doing the exact same thing ourselves.'
Its the definition of madness.
We should follow the proudest British traditions of free trade and keep calm and carry on. No retaliation.
Tariffs are a form of economic warfare.
Trump essentially wants to punch others in the face, but says that he doesn't want them to him punch back in the face.
In actual fact, he despises those fail to punch back because he considers them "weak" & "holding no cards", and respects those like China who do punch back.
The correct strategy is to demonstrate "strength" to Trump by punching back hard, the way that China is doing.
You could punch back by doing something other than imposing tariffs. Not sure what, but I am not sure it even has to be trade-related. If you believe in free trade then engaging in a tariff war seems suboptimal.
How about casually letting it be known that HMG would not, in future, use any US owned Investment Banks, Lawyers, Accountants or consultants. Not an outright ban, of course - just a tactful observation of the Government's desire to support the British services sector, which contributes so much to our balance of payments etc.
When are we going to stop pretending that those working from home are actually working?
The article suggests the problems are falling oil extraction, lack of investment, and unreliable economic statistics.
Meanwhile, pro-ID card Labour MPs think the productivity problem is not enough ID cards:-
The letter calls on the government to revive the idea of ID cards – a hugely controversial policy proposal during Tony Blair’s era – but said digital IDs were the right route for the modern economy. It said it would mean that citizens could “engage with the state more seamlessly”, including booking GP appointments, renewing passports or paying tax.
It might also flush out the hundred of thousands (millions?) who are working illegally.
It might but surely even illegal workers contribute to GDP. There might be lots of good reasons for using ID cards to stop illegal workers from working, but boosting productivity is not one of them, pace these Labour MPs.
Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 1h Reply to Rob Ford So if the Home Office wants to reduce student migration numbers it needs to explain why it considers British families paying more for uni and/or the largest employer in many red wall towns going under is a price worth paying to reduce a form of migration that bothers no one
Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 1h Any Labour SpAd arguing for restricting student imm should be sat down in front of a map and asked three Qs: 1. Where do you think the unis in most financial trouble are? 2. How many people rely on them for jobs and income? 3. Which party represents these seats?
I am pro expanding rather than contracting overseas students - it is our best way of reducing our trade deficit. Let's not pretend it bothers no-one or doesn't create problems though.
About 20% stay on afterwards, again that is good for the country, but not in the minds of people who want 0 net migration. And we don't build enough accommodation for either the students or those that stay on afterwards - that is the real issue, we need to build more.
Great header, thanks Sean, I really enjoyed it. Off topic, been away from politics for a while focusing on things closer to home, so just catching up on Badenoch's outrageous comments about the Labour MPs detained by the Israelis. I'm gobsmacked. She's a disgrace to the office of LOTO.
Latest YouGov poll for The Times: Lab 24, Ref 23, Con 22, Lib Dem 17, Green 9
Lib Dems on highest poll rating with YouGov since before 2019 election. OGH used to focus on momentum, seems like the Lib Dems have some- and its concentrated in the south. The Tories seem set to have a very nasty local result indeed on May 1st.
Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 1h Reply to Rob Ford So if the Home Office wants to reduce student migration numbers it needs to explain why it considers British families paying more for uni and/or the largest employer in many red wall towns going under is a price worth paying to reduce a form of migration that bothers no one
Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 1h Any Labour SpAd arguing for restricting student imm should be sat down in front of a map and asked three Qs: 1. Where do you think the unis in most financial trouble are? 2. How many people rely on them for jobs and income? 3. Which party represents these seats?
I am pro expanding rather than contracting overseas students - it is our best way of reducing our trade deficit. Let's not pretend it bothers no-one or doesn't create problems though.
About 20% stay on afterwards, again that is good for the country, but not in the minds of people who want 0 net migration. And we don't build enough accommodation for either the students or those that stay on afterwards - that is the real issue, we need to build more.
When are we going to stop pretending that those working from home are actually working?
The article suggests the problems are falling oil extraction, lack of investment, and unreliable economic statistics.
Meanwhile, pro-ID card Labour MPs think the productivity problem is not enough ID cards:-
The letter calls on the government to revive the idea of ID cards – a hugely controversial policy proposal during Tony Blair’s era – but said digital IDs were the right route for the modern economy. It said it would mean that citizens could “engage with the state more seamlessly”, including booking GP appointments, renewing passports or paying tax.
It might also flush out the hundred of thousands (millions?) who are working illegally.
Estimates are that there are between half and three quarters of a million people living in the UK illegally, although not all of them will be working. There are then other people who are legally living in the UK, but not allowed to work, e.g. most asylum seekers, but the total number of people waiting on asylum decisions is only hundreds of thousands, and only a proportion of them will be illegally working. Therefore, overall, I think hundreds of thousands is correct, not millions.
Great header, thanks Sean, I really enjoyed it. Off topic, been away from politics for a while focusing on things closer to home, so just catching up on Badenoch's outrageous comments about the Labour MPs detained by the Israelis. I'm gobsmacked. She's a disgrace to the office of LOTO.
Latest YouGov poll for The Times: Lab 24, Ref 23, Con 22, Lib Dem 17, Green 9
Lib Dems on highest poll rating with YouGov since before 2019 election. OGH used to focus on momentum, seems like the Lib Dems have some- and its concentrated in the south. The Tories seem set to have a very nasty local result indeed on May 1st.
This was an extremely good thread and I do tend to agree with every point. Of course, as I've said, I do see a continuum between the America first policy that has run for decades, with what we see from Trump now. He is just doing it in a way that cannot be politely ignored.
When are we going to stop pretending that those working from home are actually working?
The article suggests the problems are falling oil extraction, lack of investment, and unreliable economic statistics.
Meanwhile, pro-ID card Labour MPs think the productivity problem is not enough ID cards:-
The letter calls on the government to revive the idea of ID cards – a hugely controversial policy proposal during Tony Blair’s era – but said digital IDs were the right route for the modern economy. It said it would mean that citizens could “engage with the state more seamlessly”, including booking GP appointments, renewing passports or paying tax.
It might also flush out the hundred of thousands (millions?) who are working illegally.
Indeed, but we could eliminate that problem by becoming a cashless society rather than having draconian ID cards.
ID cards are not really draconian. Its only the potential application by the state that makes it so. For instance you have to show ID such as a passport when being employed at my Uni - an ID card would do that. You could show it at the GP or hospital. Lots of benefits to it.
Making GP and hospital staff check ID cards, and having to deal with people not carrying them despite being allowed care, would waste a lot of man-hours.
When are we going to stop pretending that those working from home are actually working?
The article suggests the problems are falling oil extraction, lack of investment, and unreliable economic statistics.
Meanwhile, pro-ID card Labour MPs think the productivity problem is not enough ID cards:-
The letter calls on the government to revive the idea of ID cards – a hugely controversial policy proposal during Tony Blair’s era – but said digital IDs were the right route for the modern economy. It said it would mean that citizens could “engage with the state more seamlessly”, including booking GP appointments, renewing passports or paying tax.
It might also flush out the hundred of thousands (millions?) who are working illegally.
Indeed, but we could eliminate that problem by becoming a cashless society rather than having draconian ID cards.
ID cards are not really draconian. Its only the potential application by the state that makes it so. For instance you have to show ID such as a passport when being employed at my Uni - an ID card would do that. You could show it at the GP or hospital. Lots of benefits to it.
Making GP and hospital staff check ID cards, and having to deal with people not carrying them despite being allowed care, would waste a lot of man-hours.
We keep on finding reasons for not having them which are - but xyz will do something with it.
The whole point of the ID card would be to making vetting (and in your case getting medical records) easier when people have the card on them.
Watching how a bank works in Austria compared to the UK is one example. There it goes get ID check photo against person, verification complete 99/100 times.
Uk you’ve got 15 options to verify the user and it takes a heap of time (yes many of those options also exist in Austria but you rarely use them)
When are we going to stop pretending that those working from home are actually working?
The article suggests the problems are falling oil extraction, lack of investment, and unreliable economic statistics.
Meanwhile, pro-ID card Labour MPs think the productivity problem is not enough ID cards:-
The letter calls on the government to revive the idea of ID cards – a hugely controversial policy proposal during Tony Blair’s era – but said digital IDs were the right route for the modern economy. It said it would mean that citizens could “engage with the state more seamlessly”, including booking GP appointments, renewing passports or paying tax.
It might also flush out the hundred of thousands (millions?) who are working illegally.
Indeed, but we could eliminate that problem by becoming a cashless society rather than having draconian ID cards.
ID cards are not really draconian. Its only the potential application by the state that makes it so. For instance you have to show ID such as a passport when being employed at my Uni - an ID card would do that. You could show it at the GP or hospital. Lots of benefits to it.
Making GP and hospital staff check ID cards, and having to deal with people not carrying them despite being allowed care, would waste a lot of man-hours.
Presumably in insurance-based systems, there is no system for checking eligibility, as you say it would be a waste of time.
Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 1h Reply to Rob Ford So if the Home Office wants to reduce student migration numbers it needs to explain why it considers British families paying more for uni and/or the largest employer in many red wall towns going under is a price worth paying to reduce a form of migration that bothers no one
Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 1h Any Labour SpAd arguing for restricting student imm should be sat down in front of a map and asked three Qs: 1. Where do you think the unis in most financial trouble are? 2. How many people rely on them for jobs and income? 3. Which party represents these seats?
I am pro expanding rather than contracting overseas students - it is our best way of reducing our trade deficit. Let's not pretend it bothers no-one or doesn't create problems though.
About 20% stay on afterwards, again that is good for the country, but not in the minds of people who want 0 net migration. And we don't build enough accommodation for either the students or those that stay on afterwards - that is the real issue, we need to build more.
That's a big issue in Edinburgh - a very large chunk of the new developments and the resources that go into them are for PBSA. It doesn't solve the overall issue of demand/supply in our cities, because the student numbers have grown in line with the new accomodation rather than opening up flats other people.
In fact, I suggest the overall effect is to worsen the housing crisis. Demand is snowballing here even as we build tens of thousands of homes across the Lothians and the West of Scotland continues to depopulate.
Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 1h Reply to Rob Ford So if the Home Office wants to reduce student migration numbers it needs to explain why it considers British families paying more for uni and/or the largest employer in many red wall towns going under is a price worth paying to reduce a form of migration that bothers no one
Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 1h Any Labour SpAd arguing for restricting student imm should be sat down in front of a map and asked three Qs: 1. Where do you think the unis in most financial trouble are? 2. How many people rely on them for jobs and income? 3. Which party represents these seats?
I am pro expanding rather than contracting overseas students - it is our best way of reducing our trade deficit. Let's not pretend it bothers no-one or doesn't create problems though.
About 20% stay on afterwards, again that is good for the country, but not in the minds of people who want 0 net migration. And we don't build enough accommodation for either the students or those that stay on afterwards - that is the real issue, we need to build more.
When you have overseas students for 3 or 4 years you don't just take their money. You also get to spend 3 or 4 years showing them how good the British way of life is, and inculcating British values. Soft power and all that. Plus some of them stay on, get good jobs, pay taxes and contribute hugely. Students should never be the target except that there are a large number who come over with no intention of actually studying. I've seen it for myself at a Uni I guest lectured on a masters course. 50% were there for the masters. 50% were there to work, or get married or pregnant or whatever. They we forced to turn up to the lectures by being monitored (uni ID cards) but you cannot make them engage.
There is much to Bessent analysis here re global imbalances obviously, but on the point about trade wars and surplus countries, they and the EU are finding that US stock markets are providing the most profound form of negotiation in and of themselves, as Handlesblatt reports:
Brussels is watching amazed, as Trump destroys the US economy. "Nobody in the Commission thought that the US government would be this stupid and self-destructive," an EU official tells me. "That they would blow up their own country by letting ChatGPT make their trade policy."
EU officials are quietly preparing brutal countermeasures — but they’re in no rush. Markets are doing the work for them.
Trump’s chaos is collapsing the US markets faster than any EU retaliation could. Inside the Commission and among EU governments, the mood is: Don't give Trump an excuse to blame this on others.
Inside the Commission and among EU trade ministers, the mood is calm — almost mocking. “We’ll just let them stew,” another senior official says. “If Trump doesn’t blink by the end of the month, we’re ready to hit hard.” But for now? They'll watch him sweat.
Habeck also mocked Elon Musk’s call for a US-EU "zero-tariff" deal: “It's sign of weakness and fear. If he has something to say, he should go to his President... Before we talk about zero tariffs, stop the nonsense and mess you just made in the last week.”
I have huge confidence in the EU. If it wasn't for them and our reasonable links to them I think we would have every reason to be worried. It is even possible that in this post Trump world this could turn out to be the best thing that could have happened. The morality of the US and their dominance as is being seen now and in the middle east has always been suspect
When are we going to stop pretending that those working from home are actually working?
The article suggests the problems are falling oil extraction, lack of investment, and unreliable economic statistics.
Meanwhile, pro-ID card Labour MPs think the productivity problem is not enough ID cards:-
The letter calls on the government to revive the idea of ID cards – a hugely controversial policy proposal during Tony Blair’s era – but said digital IDs were the right route for the modern economy. It said it would mean that citizens could “engage with the state more seamlessly”, including booking GP appointments, renewing passports or paying tax.
It might also flush out the hundred of thousands (millions?) who are working illegally.
Estimates are that there are between half and three quarters of a million people living in the UK illegally, although not all of them will be working. There are then other people who are legally living in the UK, but not allowed to work, e.g. most asylum seekers, but the total number of people waiting on asylum decisions is only hundreds of thousands, and only a proportion of them will be illegally working. Therefore, overall, I think hundreds of thousands is correct, not millions.
It sounds a bit redundant to me as Google Wallet and Apple Wallet can already support various types of ID cards, driving licenses, and so on. I hope the UK government is not re-inventing the wheel and is simply issuing standards compliant digital documents.
The Chinese are now master-trolling the US about re-industrialization. Not just a frank reality check on how Americans are viewed by some in China but also a delightful glimpse at their sharp sense of humour. The psyops continue...
When are we going to stop pretending that those working from home are actually working?
The article suggests the problems are falling oil extraction, lack of investment, and unreliable economic statistics.
Meanwhile, pro-ID card Labour MPs think the productivity problem is not enough ID cards:-
The letter calls on the government to revive the idea of ID cards – a hugely controversial policy proposal during Tony Blair’s era – but said digital IDs were the right route for the modern economy. It said it would mean that citizens could “engage with the state more seamlessly”, including booking GP appointments, renewing passports or paying tax.
It might also flush out the hundred of thousands (millions?) who are working illegally.
Indeed, but we could eliminate that problem by becoming a cashless society rather than having draconian ID cards.
ID cards are not really draconian. Its only the potential application by the state that makes it so. For instance you have to show ID such as a passport when being employed at my Uni - an ID card would do that. You could show it at the GP or hospital. Lots of benefits to it.
Could would rapidly become must in lots of other life situations.
Good morning, everyone.
Only because it would make life easier - reality is no one is going to create extra work here because there is no money involved.
When are we going to stop pretending that those working from home are actually working?
When are we going to stop pretending mass immigration is “essential” for economic growth?
We’ve had unprecedented immigration for 20 years or more and GDP per capita has been flat and public services have got worse. Mass immigration is a disaster
If anyone is looking for the actual numbers, UK GDP per capita was growing fast and consistently until 2007, and has been flat since then. There isn't an obvious link to levels of immigration or Brexit.
One reason that is given is that normally during a large recession you get mass redundancies and firms going bust. The government at the time though not without reason that instead trying to keep as much employment as possible / minimize firms going bust was the best course of action. And that is what happened, instead whole workforces took pay cuts / long term pay freezes. This was also continued post 2010.
However, setting aside the short term terrible human cost, the flipside is that in previous big recession what you find the weak companies go bust if they can't become more efficient. The ones that do survive are the strongest and have found ways to do more for less / increase their competitiveness. And then when the economy starts to turn around those are the companies everybody has to match to survive.
Mrs U at the time was doing part-time work for a firm while studying who had a department that was solely tasked with undoing the fuck ups of regular employees. You would think then that come the downturn you would be like shit we better stop the f##k ups and then we won't need the unfucking up department. Nope, pay freeze all round. When the economy picked up, they struggled to grow as they were still as dysfunctional as before.
When are we going to stop pretending that those working from home are actually working?
The article suggests the problems are falling oil extraction, lack of investment, and unreliable economic statistics.
Meanwhile, pro-ID card Labour MPs think the productivity problem is not enough ID cards:-
The letter calls on the government to revive the idea of ID cards – a hugely controversial policy proposal during Tony Blair’s era – but said digital IDs were the right route for the modern economy. It said it would mean that citizens could “engage with the state more seamlessly”, including booking GP appointments, renewing passports or paying tax.
It might also flush out the hundred of thousands (millions?) who are working illegally.
Indeed, but we could eliminate that problem by becoming a cashless society rather than having draconian ID cards.
ID cards are not really draconian. Its only the potential application by the state that makes it so. For instance you have to show ID such as a passport when being employed at my Uni - an ID card would do that. You could show it at the GP or hospital. Lots of benefits to it.
Making GP and hospital staff check ID cards, and having to deal with people not carrying them despite being allowed care, would waste a lot of man-hours.
We keep on finding reasons for not having them which are - but xyz will do something with it.
The whole point of the ID card would be to making vetting (and in your case getting medical records) easier when people have the card on them.
Watching how a bank works in Austria compared to the UK is one example. There it goes get ID check photo against person, verification complete 99/100 times.
Uk you’ve got 15 options to verify the user and it takes a heap of time (yes many of those options also exist in Austria but you rarely use them)
Simply include a clause in the bill to introduce ID cards, such that any official advocating linking every database together and giving unlimited access be subject to immediate rendition to El Salvador without trial.
It sounds a bit redundant to me as Google Wallet and Apple Wallet can already support various types of ID cards, driving licenses, and so on. I hope the UK government is not re-inventing the wheel and is simply issuing standards compliant digital documents.
Yeah I have my NI number in there at the moment, that's as far as it goes I think. Or wait this is a bit reinventing the wheel/wallet. I suppose the gov't doesn't want to be tied into Google or Apple or w/e
The Nobs of Altrincham all need self-driving Teslas because the installation of a short cycle track and pedestrian crossing means that none of them can find the plonking great parish church any more, so the vicar claims that 40% of them have stopped coming. Perhaps only 60% will tolerate fools gladly.
What's happened is that 1/3 of the parish have a new crossing so it is no longer cut off by a 10k vehicles a day road, and he has a lovely new active travel route so they can all get to his church without a quarter mile diversion to find a crossing across the bloody main road.
God save us from whining (*&^^$&*ers.
(My lovingkindness muscles are under strain, today, after three cars full of police turned up to a minor incident in the local park, whilst other people leave their cars all over the f**cking pavements with ZERO intervention.)
Personally, I find this new pedestrian crossing over the busy Dunham Road very useful on the walk to my regular place of worship (not St Margaret's Church).
Thanks for the reply. I had a serious dig into this when the story was first out last year, and the non-attendance was already being blamed on the short cycle lane (before it was actually built iirc - then it was attendance at Christmas services).
The previous Vicar there was a character - a biker with a Harley that he used for charity fundraising.
What they actually have (in Church of England "cure of the parish" terms) is a superb new mission / engagement opportunity - 1/3 of their parish area is the other side of the main road and has been cut off since the (estd) 1960s. And they now have a significant route in the new active travel network going past their door and people waiting outside for a minute to cross the road on the pedestrian crossing, and they are now the focus where people will come to cross.
It's crying out for a carefully designed wayside pulpit, noticeboard and maybe a cafe, and some cycle and mobility aid parking at the church. Plus it's an ideal place for inclusive cycling trials, since they have a sealed path and car park. There is a ready built platform to reach a whole new demographic.
All the infra and organisations exist in Manchester, including grants for their cycle / mobility aid parking.
But ... no.
That's why I'm a little cross about it.
While the actual regular Parish church attendees can largely go hang with vastly extended journey times and sat nav confusion to accommodate these cyclists and pedestrian crossing
Have you looked at it?
It's literally 90-120 seconds round the block - or a slightly different route if you are not one of the people who arrive on that particular side of the building.
In return for the 1/3 of the parish who live across the A56 to be able to get there easily and safely for the first time in half a century, and for the people of Manchester to have safe and convenient local transport routes.
I think in this case any questions answer themselves.
Expensive iPhones for the US will mean, if anything, cheaper iPhones for us, no?
I Apple can't sell iPhones in America, they are going to try and recoup that loss somehow
If demand falls, you expect prices to fall.
This is Apple we are talking about. The only way you get a discount on their products if somebody has previously buggered it up and it has had to be repaired ;-)
When are we going to stop pretending that those working from home are actually working?
The article suggests the problems are falling oil extraction, lack of investment, and unreliable economic statistics.
Meanwhile, pro-ID card Labour MPs think the productivity problem is not enough ID cards:-
The letter calls on the government to revive the idea of ID cards – a hugely controversial policy proposal during Tony Blair’s era – but said digital IDs were the right route for the modern economy. It said it would mean that citizens could “engage with the state more seamlessly”, including booking GP appointments, renewing passports or paying tax.
It might also flush out the hundred of thousands (millions?) who are working illegally.
Estimates are that there are between half and three quarters of a million people living in the UK illegally, although not all of them will be working. There are then other people who are legally living in the UK, but not allowed to work, e.g. most asylum seekers, but the total number of people waiting on asylum decisions is only hundreds of thousands, and only a proportion of them will be illegally working. Therefore, overall, I think hundreds of thousands is correct, not millions.
But the key point is we don't actually know...
We don't actually know lots of things. How important is knowing the right number? (And would ID cards even then tell you and/or eliminate the problem? No.)
When are we going to stop pretending that those working from home are actually working?
The article suggests the problems are falling oil extraction, lack of investment, and unreliable economic statistics.
Meanwhile, pro-ID card Labour MPs think the productivity problem is not enough ID cards:-
The letter calls on the government to revive the idea of ID cards – a hugely controversial policy proposal during Tony Blair’s era – but said digital IDs were the right route for the modern economy. It said it would mean that citizens could “engage with the state more seamlessly”, including booking GP appointments, renewing passports or paying tax.
It might also flush out the hundred of thousands (millions?) who are working illegally.
Indeed, but we could eliminate that problem by becoming a cashless society rather than having draconian ID cards.
ID cards are not really draconian. Its only the potential application by the state that makes it so. For instance you have to show ID such as a passport when being employed at my Uni - an ID card would do that. You could show it at the GP or hospital. Lots of benefits to it.
Could would rapidly become must in lots of other life situations.
Good morning, everyone.
Only because it would make life easier - reality is no one is going to create extra work here because there is no money involved.
What's involved is power. Power exerted by authority over individuals.
Expensive iPhones for the US will mean, if anything, cheaper iPhones for us, no?
I Apple can't sell iPhones in America, they are going to try and recoup that loss somehow
If demand falls, you expect prices to fall.
This is Apple we are talking about. The only way you get a discount on their products if somebody has previously buggered it up and it has had to be repaired ;-)
The price of an entry level Mac has been roughly $1,000 since 1984 (You can obviously pay more than that as well)
Comments
I hope North revitalises that area somewhat: it's really near the science and business parks, but has always (*) felt a bit run-down.
(*) The thirty years I've been down here.
* Note to PB regulars: don't get excited, it's only a metaphorical railroad.
Still, Good Morning Mr Eagles, @bondegazou and everyone!
Morning Consult (4-6 Apr)
Approve 46% Disapprove 52% Net -6%
A week ago, same pollster:
Approve 47% Disapprove 50% Net -3%
A definite but gradual downward trend in approval.
Trump will be aware of the stock market crash.
He may be being shielded from negative opinion polls.
Just about to head off for a week in southern Bavaria mind you so will not be productive in next week.
Spring in the city
The merchants gaze at the stars
Bears snort, wakening
And, you cannot even discuss government or law without using Roman concepts and terminology.
And, it’s all the more remarkable, when you consider that the vast majority of what was written by the ancients has vanished.
Labour insisting that it won't join the CU today - that was the straw that broke the dromedary. Just a total lack of solidarity with Canada and our European neighbours. My understanding is that even NZ aus and Jap would be interested in that arrangement. The UK would be out because Starmer appeases the populist right. To me he is like the cowardly lion. He needs to grow a pair.
Read the room Starmer. 2/3 of the electorate are rejoiners. They largely got you over the line in 2024.... and you are losing them.
They are so young! And the women so pretty
They are a mix of white and East Asian - Russia and mongol/China essentially. Yet Russia has a media age of 40 and China is about the same (likewise USA, UK, France, all of us)
Here the media age is 27-29 and you really notice it. The exuberance
I wonder if Putin is minded to “re-absorb” Kazakhstan to ameliorate his demographic problem. They often speak Russian. The alphabet is Cyrillic. They are way less Muslim than Uzbekistan. Bars and pubs everywhere
PS Skirting boards and ski boots don't mix well and the skirting boards lose.
There is much to Bessent analysis here re global imbalances obviously, but on the point about trade wars and surplus countries, they and the EU are finding that US stock markets are providing the most profound form of negotiation in and of themselves, as Handlesblatt reports:
https://x.com/faisalislam/status/1909522166464274502
@HankeVela
Brussels is watching amazed, as Trump destroys the US economy. "Nobody in the Commission thought that the US government would be this stupid and self-destructive," an EU official tells me. "That they would blow up their own country by letting ChatGPT make their trade policy."
EU officials are quietly preparing brutal countermeasures — but they’re in no rush.
Markets are doing the work for them.
Trump’s chaos is collapsing the US markets faster than any EU retaliation could.
Inside the Commission and among EU governments, the mood is: Don't give Trump an excuse to blame this on others.
Inside the Commission and among EU trade ministers, the mood is calm — almost mocking.
“We’ll just let them stew,” another senior official says.
“If Trump doesn’t blink by the end of the month, we’re ready to hit hard.” But for now? They'll watch him sweat.
Habeck also mocked Elon Musk’s call for a US-EU "zero-tariff" deal:
“It's sign of weakness and fear. If he has something to say, he should go to his President... Before we talk about zero tariffs, stop the nonsense and mess you just made in the last week.”
https://x.com/HankeVela/status/1909259594787910009
"Hitting back hard" is cutting off your nose to spite your face.
'America is hurting because of their self-imposed tariffs, so if they don't blink we're going to retaliate by doing the exact same thing ourselves.'
Its the definition of madness.
We should follow the proudest British traditions of free trade and keep calm and carry on. No retaliation.
She was not yet twenty one
Near Almaty town.
*I've not been to one of these for... well, I don't know how long - how do they compare to e.g. Premier Inn nowadays?
ETA: @DavidL - with this, I'm working from home while on PB
The US is simultaneously the strongest but most attacked, the richest but most ripped-off, wants to trade with everyone and no-one, it's enemies are now allies, and it's allies now enemies. Up is down, black is white, etc.
Four years of this nonsense will end in calamity.
https://x.com/faisalislam/status/1909520480307929587
"China exports lots of cheap stuff. If the US stops buying it, China will lose."
The problem, as they are finding out, is that US consumers like buying cheap Chinese stuff, and US manufacturers use lots of cheap Chinese stuff in their supply chains.
Oops
I really enjoyed it.
Trump essentially wants to punch others in the face, but says that he doesn't want them to him punch back in the face.
In actual fact, he despises those fail to punch back because he considers them "weak" & "holding no cards", and respects those like China who do punch back.
The correct strategy is to demonstrate "strength" to Trump by punching back hard, the way that China is doing.
Of course, the EU has been hit harder that we have. Perhaps, if we'd NOT left their/our tariff would have been 15%!
He noticed her exuberance
She noticed his protuberance
Statement from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce last night—“The US threat to escalate tariffs on China is a mistake on top of a mistake. If the US insists on its own way, China will fight to the end.”
China also called for dialogue to resolve disputes in its statement.
https://x.com/annmarie/status/1909530611095629930
In the woods the bears shit.
I hurry to join them.
Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social
·
1h
Reply to
Rob Ford
So if the Home Office wants to reduce student migration numbers it needs to explain why it considers British families paying more for uni and/or the largest employer in many red wall towns going under is a price worth paying to reduce a form of migration that bothers no one
Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social
·
1h
Any Labour SpAd arguing for restricting student imm should be sat down in front of a map and asked three Qs:
1. Where do you think the unis in most financial trouble are?
2. How many people rely on them for jobs and income?
3. Which party represents these seats?
https://bsky.app/profile/robfordmancs.bsky.social/post/3lmbywiulhk2g
For many countries allowing both the USA and China be damaged by them having a trade war is the correct strategy.
I’ve seen a tiny handful of headscarves. Booze is ubiquitous. Everyone dresses like they are in Beijing or Moscow. Not a hint of religiosity
I’ve just been into the famous green bazaar and you can’t move for pork - and also horse meat - entire aisles of it
Why didn’t Putin invade Kazakhstan?! I can’t see them fighting back the way Ukraine has done
https://www.molsonhart.com/blog/america-underestimates-the-difficulty-of-bringing-manufacturing-back
Good morning, everyone.
Both before and after that period, Rome’s leaders preferred a more indirect form of control and overlordship.
What could be a more dramatic statement of power than to send out a proconsul with a dozen lictors, to confront a monarch at the head of 50,000 men, and order him not to attack Rome’s local ally if he knows what’s good for him - and have him turn tail 90% of the time?
1/ Based on ongoing discussions in China, I am skeptical Beijing will blink on Pres. Trump’s recent tariff escalation threats. Chinese leaders understand holding firm will be economically costly. They’re preparing public to tolerate pain. Politics may drive decisions.
2/ Beijing doesn’t expect any breakthroughs or negotiations with Trump administration on horizon. They are digging in. They do not have clarity on what Trump is trying to achieve and are filling the vacuum with their own assumption, i.e., Trump’s goal is to undermine PRC economy.
3/ PRC leaders are skeptical that capitulating to Trump’s latest demands would resolve underlying challenge from the United States, which they judge is to undermine PRC economic strength. From this vantage, they assume there is little incentive to make concessions now.
4/ Xi also has his own politics to manage. He likely will go to great lengths to protect his political brand as a strong defender of national pride and honor. He doesn’t want to allow a perception to emerge at home or abroad of being muscled around by Trump.
5/ In other words, there are factors larger than raw calculations of economic output that will drive decisions in Beijing. Anyone expecting that Beijing will need to fold to protect its economic interests likely will be disappointed.
6/ Beijing won’t be able to match US escalation, but may look for other asymmetric response options. Official media will signal defiance and resolve. Beijing may tout inroads in external markets and promote domestic consumption. We’re far from end of story. Buckle up! End.
https://x.com/ryanl_hass/status/1909447557161664850
About 20% stay on afterwards, again that is good for the country, but not in the minds of people who want 0 net migration. And we don't build enough accommodation for either the students or those that stay on afterwards - that is the real issue, we need to build more.
Lab 24, Ref 23, Con 22, Lib Dem 17, Green 9
Lib Dems on highest poll rating with YouGov since before 2019 election. OGH used to focus on momentum, seems like the Lib Dems have some- and its concentrated in the south. The Tories seem set to have a very nasty local result indeed on May 1st.
The whole point of the ID card would be to making vetting (and in your case getting medical records) easier when people have the card on them.
Watching how a bank works in Austria compared to the UK is one example. There it goes get ID check photo against person, verification complete 99/100 times.
Uk you’ve got 15 options to verify the user and it takes a heap of time (yes many of those options also exist in Austria but you rarely use them)
In fact, I suggest the overall effect is to worsen the housing crisis. Demand is snowballing here even as we build tens of thousands of homes across the Lothians and the West of Scotland continues to depopulate.
https://www.gov.uk/wallet
It sounds a bit redundant to me as Google Wallet and Apple Wallet can already support various types of ID cards, driving licenses, and so on. I hope the UK government is not re-inventing the wheel and is simply issuing standards compliant digital documents.
The Chinese are now master-trolling the US about re-industrialization.
Not just a frank reality check on how Americans are viewed by some in China but also a delightful glimpse at their sharp sense of humour. The psyops continue...
https://x.com/tellypolly/status/1909548985334767921
However, setting aside the short term terrible human cost, the flipside is that in previous big recession what you find the weak companies go bust if they can't become more efficient. The ones that do survive are the strongest and have found ways to do more for less / increase their competitiveness. And then when the economy starts to turn around those are the companies everybody has to match to survive.
Mrs U at the time was doing part-time work for a firm while studying who had a department that was solely tasked with undoing the fuck ups of regular employees. You would think then that come the downturn you would be like shit we better stop the f##k ups and then we won't need the unfucking up department. Nope, pay freeze all round. When the economy picked up, they struggled to grow as they were still as dysfunctional as before.
It's literally 90-120 seconds round the block - or a slightly different route if you are not one of the people who arrive on that particular side of the building.
In return for the 1/3 of the parish who live across the A56 to be able to get there easily and safely for the first time in half a century, and for the people of Manchester to have safe and convenient local transport routes.
I think in this case any questions answer themselves.