This site is (understandably) united in condemning this Tarrify Trumpsterfuck
Perhaps someone needs to raise a counter-argument. Why? Because I recall a similar chorus of scorn and disdain from non-Brits when we voted for Brexit. And nearly all of these opinions were spectacularly ill-informed, eg I would hear liberal Americans saying "why the fuck have you cut yourself off from your major market" and when I pointed out to them the huge democratic flaws in the EU they not only didn't understand, they didn't even have the first idea. "What, your supreme court sits in a different country, and speaks a different language, and you don't vote for the people that make the laws??!
etc etc ETC
So is it possible Trump is doing a Brexit. ie something that makes sense in American terms, but the rest of us simply don't "get", and maybe never will?
I am merely throwing up the idea. Because, to me these tariffs look like madness - even if they are just some bluff designed to get better terms for USA Inc - they have caused hideous instability which will not be forgotten
Are we missing something?
Hard to see how it could be wise. Nobody understands economics though, so hard to be sure.
Try
That's my point
Have a go
We're having a collective and almighty go at Trumpism - doesn't matter at all what I think, we're going to see.
Trump and his cohorts have a deep seated conviction about the absolute power of the US to dictate to the rest of the world and that the world will fall into line. So, all this makes total sense to them as they believe the US will withstand and in the end it will lead to a lower deficit, lower taxes and a stronger American economy. Whether they are right or entirely deluded is what is now in play.
This site is (understandably) united in condemning this Tarrify Trumpsterfuck
Perhaps someone needs to raise a counter-argument. Why? Because I recall a similar chorus of scorn and disdain from non-Brits when we voted for Brexit. And nearly all of these opinions were spectacularly ill-informed, eg I would hear liberal Americans saying "why the fuck have you cut yourself off from your major market" and when I pointed out to them the huge democratic flaws in the EU they not only didn't understand, they didn't even have the first idea. "What, your supreme court sits in a different country, and speaks a different language, and you don't vote for the people that make the laws??!
etc etc ETC
So is it possible Trump is doing a Brexit. ie something that makes sense in American terms, but the rest of us simply don't "get", and maybe never will?
I am merely throwing up the idea. Because, to me these tariffs look like madness - even if they are just some bluff designed to get better terms for USA Inc - they have caused hideous instability which will not be forgotten
Are we missing something?
The world will adjust. The issue is how long that will take, how much pain there will be in the meantime and whether it is worth it. Trump and his cohorts have a deep seated conviction about the absolute power of the US to dictate to the rest of the world and that the world will fall into line. So, all this makes total sense to them as they believe the US will withstand and in the end it will lead to a lower deficit, lower taxes and a stronger American economy. Whether they are right or entirely deluded is what is now in play.
Contrarianism to test if there might be in something after all is worth doing, but with Trump there's always been a lot of 'there must be some secret sense behind X' which has been wishful thinking, when often the simpler explanation makes more sense. Even if Trump is somehow right on this one for the long term there'll be plenty of pain for them and the rest of us in the meantime.
This site is (understandably) united in condemning this Tarrify Trumpsterfuck
Perhaps someone needs to raise a counter-argument. Why? Because I recall a similar chorus of scorn and disdain from non-Brits when we voted for Brexit. And nearly all of these opinions were spectacularly ill-informed, eg I would hear liberal Americans saying "why the fuck have you cut yourself off from your major market" and when I pointed out to them the huge democratic flaws in the EU they not only didn't understand, they didn't even have the first idea. "What, your supreme court sits in a different country, and speaks a different language, and you don't vote for the people that make the laws??!
etc etc ETC
So is it possible Trump is doing a Brexit. ie something that makes sense in American terms, but the rest of us simply don't "get", and maybe never will?
I am merely throwing up the idea. Because, to me these tariffs look like madness - even if they are just some bluff designed to get better terms for USA Inc - they have caused hideous instability which will not be forgotten
Are we missing something?
Hard to see how it could be wise. Nobody understands economics though, so hard to be sure.
Try
That's my point
Have a go
The US runs a trade deficit.
Trump wants to reduce the trade deficit.
This is not stupid. The US has - for some time - lived beyond its means.
It is not entirely stupid to use tariffs as a one of the ways of achieving this, because they act as a sales tax, increasing the price of goods, and therefore reducing demand for them. (Because spending is price elastic. The more something costs, the less you buy of it.)
However, the way the US government is going about it is fundamentally stupid.
Firstly, there is the focus on bilateral trade balances, which is (to put it generously) misguided. See my video from earlier for a primer on it.
Secondly, if you want the tariffs to be a bargaining chip to get others to reduce their tariffs (and non tariff barriers), then you need to be seen as a reliable partner who keeps their word. The focus on Canada (which only runs a trade surplus with the US because of the Keystone pipeline that Trump actively supported) and on fentanyl from there (which is non-existent) makes it hard for others to negotiate with the US.
Thirdly, a major issue is that Americans save too little, and spend too much! (See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2pKS2TCd_3c) If you want to fundamentally change the trade deficit, you need to increase US household savings rates. (The tariffs will do this, but not in a particularly efficient way.)
Fourth, by constantly flip flopping, you discourage American businesses from investing in domestic production. Why build a factory to make hats, if the US government is likely to cut hat tariffs in a year?
The right way forward for the US is a combination of:
(1) Encouraging the Europeans and the Chinese to consume more! They oversave, and that's a problem. But imposing tariffs on these countries will make the problem worse, not better.
(2) Tax incentives and cheap financing for people to build US manufacturing facilities.
(3) Changing individual incentives to increase household savings rates and discourage consumer debt.
That's how you rebalance the US economy, and you do it without pissing everyone off.
Everyone wants there to be a grand scheme behind all of this but the terrible truth is that extremely stupid people are in charge and they have a fanatical devotion to wrong, childlike concepts of society and economics cooked up by right wing radio hosts in order to sell tainted dietary supplements
This follows on precisely from Signalgate, the lesson of which is these guys are morons. There is no plan. They have no clue.
They are not playing chess. They are not playing checkers.
They are eating the pieces off the board...
It is interesting because this is also where Trussian economics came from.
It starts from a simplistic vision (Truss - “I want low tax and high growth”, Trump “I want American jobs back”) and it uses blunt force tools, imposed quickly with much fanfare/shock and awe, without an understanding of the realities of the financial markets.
Interesting theory by one of our sons who called round this afternoon that it is Trump and his cohorts deliberate intention to collapse the world's markets and at a time of his choosing he and his associates will buy back billions of dollars of stock and then announce easing of sanctions and pocket the gain
He then rinses and repeats the exercise at will and the question then is
Who is to stop him ?
I've seen a version of that where the agenda is to force private services to be grown to replace demolished functions of the state.
The people best placed to run the large information systems involved being ... guess.
Several other PB Trump supporters appear to have gone into hiding.
Yes, TBF, kudos to William for sticking his head above the parapet.
But he's behind an irony shield. Then we have Topping using it to troll "the left". And of course Leon doing a mix of these plus seeking to stand out as 'free thinking'. All in all nobody is doing it (Trump support) straight. Perhaps that Moonshine poster would give it a crack if he were here. Been a while.
This site is (understandably) united in condemning this Tarrify Trumpsterfuck
Perhaps someone needs to raise a counter-argument. Why? Because I recall a similar chorus of scorn and disdain from non-Brits when we voted for Brexit. And nearly all of these opinions were spectacularly ill-informed, eg I would hear liberal Americans saying "why the fuck have you cut yourself off from your major market" and when I pointed out to them the huge democratic flaws in the EU they not only didn't understand, they didn't even have the first idea. "What, your supreme court sits in a different country, and speaks a different language, and you don't vote for the people that make the laws??!
etc etc ETC
So is it possible Trump is doing a Brexit. ie something that makes sense in American terms, but the rest of us simply don't "get", and maybe never will?
I am merely throwing up the idea. Because, to me these tariffs look like madness - even if they are just some bluff designed to get better terms for USA Inc - they have caused hideous instability which will not be forgotten
Are we missing something?
Not really.
There's a respectable argument for targeted tariffs intended to help the revival of US manufacturing (as a short term measure; in the longer run all they do is reduce its competitiveness) - but whacking tariffs in you raw materials suppliers is just daft.
And imposing unilateral tariffs on most of the globe is more or less insane.
The US IS no longer powerful enough to impose its will on the entire globe - even if these measures made sense, which they don't.
This isn't even Trump's usual zero sum game; it's lose/lose.
Impeachment would be difficult, unless he does something really crazy such as trying to "cancel" elections, but Congress can easily take away Trump's power to set Tariffs.
Congress is supposed to have this power under the Constitution, but voluntarily gave away the power to the President.
They'll still need a 2/3rd vote to override Trump's expected veto, but it is far easier to find the votes to do this. There are already 5 Senators in favour of this (McConnell, Murkowski, Collins, Rand Paul, Grassley).
Under virtually any other administration, Trump would have already - in two months - committed multiple impeachable actions. He's gone way beyond Nixon, never mind Clinton.
But the rules don't apply to him. For now.
Are we getting closer to either a Trumpist coup (Reichstag fire moment) or an anti-Trumpist coup (Trump and Trumpists arrested, soldiers on the street), or neither? Are both out of the question?
Everyone wants there to be a grand scheme behind all of this but the terrible truth is that extremely stupid people are in charge and they have a fanatical devotion to wrong, childlike concepts of society and economics cooked up by right wing radio hosts in order to sell tainted dietary supplements
This follows on precisely from Signalgate, the lesson of which is these guys are morons. There is no plan. They have no clue.
They are not playing chess. They are not playing checkers.
They are eating the pieces off the board...
It is interesting because this is also where Trussian economics came from.
It starts from a simplistic vision (Truss - “I want low tax and high growth”, Trump “I want American jobs back”) and it uses blunt force tools, imposed quickly with much fanfare/shock and awe, without an understanding of the realities of the financial markets.
Yes, the parallels are obvious.
Truss now has a martyr complex and will spend the rest of her life telling anyone who will listen she was thwarted by the deep state.
If Trump is forced by the immovable object of economic reality to abandon some of this batshittery (as she was) his martyr complex will be much more dangerous given millions of die hard fans with guns
This site is (understandably) united in condemning this Tarrify Trumpsterfuck
Perhaps someone needs to raise a counter-argument. Why? Because I recall a similar chorus of scorn and disdain from non-Brits when we voted for Brexit. And nearly all of these opinions were spectacularly ill-informed, eg I would hear liberal Americans saying "why the fuck have you cut yourself off from your major market" and when I pointed out to them the huge democratic flaws in the EU they not only didn't understand, they didn't even have the first idea. "What, your supreme court sits in a different country, and speaks a different language, and you don't vote for the people that make the laws??!
etc etc ETC
So is it possible Trump is doing a Brexit. ie something that makes sense in American terms, but the rest of us simply don't "get", and maybe never will?
I am merely throwing up the idea. Because, to me these tariffs look like madness - even if they are just some bluff designed to get better terms for USA Inc - they have caused hideous instability which will not be forgotten
Are we missing something?
The world will adjust. The issue is how long that will take, how much pain there will be in the meantime and whether it is worth it. Trump and his cohorts have a deep seated conviction about the absolute power of the US to dictate to the rest of the world and that the world will fall into line. So, all this makes total sense to them as they believe the US will withstand and in the end it will lead to a lower deficit, lower taxes and a stronger American economy. Whether they are right or entirely deluded is what is now in play.
At least you engaged with the question? And with some intelligence, so thanks
The whole thing reminds me of Thatcher's adoption of monetarism in the 1980s. A somewhat fringe economic theory. which she applied, and which drew absolute scorn from the majority of economists (and everyone else), and which led to a fairly dramatic recession and the Harrying of the North 2.0
Thatcher then went on to glory, as the greatest prime minister ever, as we all know, but was she ever vindicated in her weird economic experiment? I am not sure she was. Politically, she got lucky with 1. the Falklands, and then economically with 2. the sale of council houses - right to buy - and 3. privatisation - but as far as I know the latter two policies weren't in her original manifesto and of course the Falklands was a massive strike of "fortune"
So I am not convinced her original and unusual experiment was ever proved correct in theory and practise
This site is (understandably) united in condemning this Tarrify Trumpsterfuck
Perhaps someone needs to raise a counter-argument. Why? Because I recall a similar chorus of scorn and disdain from non-Brits when we voted for Brexit. And nearly all of these opinions were spectacularly ill-informed, eg I would hear liberal Americans saying "why the fuck have you cut yourself off from your major market" and when I pointed out to them the huge democratic flaws in the EU they not only didn't understand, they didn't even have the first idea. "What, your supreme court sits in a different country, and speaks a different language, and you don't vote for the people that make the laws??!
etc etc ETC
So is it possible Trump is doing a Brexit. ie something that makes sense in American terms, but the rest of us simply don't "get", and maybe never will?
I am merely throwing up the idea. Because, to me these tariffs look like madness - even if they are just some bluff designed to get better terms for USA Inc - they have caused hideous instability which will not be forgotten
Are we missing something?
Who is stupid enough not to get it?
The merit of tariffs is obvious. It leads to things being produced within the tariff barrier, or failing that, making a lot of tax money off imported goods.
Obviously they can be applied in a blundering or counterproductive way, but that isn't really my sense of what has happened. All I can really see is companies that have just been handed a huge bill, losing share value. Well obviously.
Of course, as a citizen of the UK, I am not pleased that we have been slapped by tariffs, and we should most certainly respond in kind. I think instinctively, I'd just whack up the digital sales tax. But we should also respond assertively to countries like India and China that have tariffs against us.
This site is (understandably) united in condemning this Tarrify Trumpsterfuck
Perhaps someone needs to raise a counter-argument. Why? Because I recall a similar chorus of scorn and disdain from non-Brits when we voted for Brexit. And nearly all of these opinions were spectacularly ill-informed, eg I would hear liberal Americans saying "why the fuck have you cut yourself off from your major market" and when I pointed out to them the huge democratic flaws in the EU they not only didn't understand, they didn't even have the first idea. "What, your supreme court sits in a different country, and speaks a different language, and you don't vote for the people that make the laws??!
etc etc ETC
So is it possible Trump is doing a Brexit. ie something that makes sense in American terms, but the rest of us simply don't "get", and maybe never will?
I am merely throwing up the idea. Because, to me these tariffs look like madness - even if they are just some bluff designed to get better terms for USA Inc - they have caused hideous instability which will not be forgotten
Are we missing something?
Hard to see how it could be wise. Nobody understands economics though, so hard to be sure.
Try
That's my point
Have a go
The US runs a trade deficit.
Trump wants to reduce the trade deficit.
This is not stupid. The US has - for some time - lived beyond its means.
It is not entirely stupid to use tariffs as a one of the ways of achieving this, because they act as a sales tax, increasing the price of goods, and therefore reducing demand for them. (Because spending is price elastic. The more something costs, the less you buy of it.)
However, the way the US government is going about it is fundamentally stupid.
Firstly, there is the focus on bilateral trade balances, which is (to put it generously) misguided. See my video from earlier for a primer on it.
Secondly, if you want the tariffs to be a bargaining chip to get others to reduce their tariffs (and non tariff barriers), then you need to be seen as a reliable partner who keeps their word. The focus on Canada (which only runs a trade surplus with the US because of the Keystone pipeline that Trump actively supported) and on fentanyl from there (which is non-existent) makes it hard for others to negotiate with the US.
Thirdly, a major issue is that Americans save too little, and spend too much! (See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2pKS2TCd_3c) If you want to fundamentally change the trade deficit, you need to increase US household savings rates. (The tariffs will do this, but not in a particularly efficient way.)
Fourth, by constantly flip flopping, you discourage American businesses from investing in domestic production. Why build a factory to make hats, if the US government is likely to cut hat tariffs in a year?
The right way forward for the US is a combination of:
(1) Encouraging the Europeans and the Chinese to consume more! They oversave, and that's a problem. But imposing tariffs on these countries will make the problem worse, not better.
(2) Tax incentives and cheap financing for people to build US manufacturing facilities.
(3) Changing individual incentives to increase household savings rates and discourage consumer debt.
That's how you rebalance the US economy, and you do it without pissing everyone off.
Why would you assume that Trump wants to use tariffs as a bargaining chip to get others to lower theirs when he has been very consistent in talking about using tariff revenue over the long term to fund the federal government? If he's constantly flip flopping, it's in order to reach a new normal with as little disruption as possible, not because he wants to abandon the policy.
This site is (understandably) united in condemning this Tarrify Trumpsterfuck
Perhaps someone needs to raise a counter-argument. Why? Because I recall a similar chorus of scorn and disdain from non-Brits when we voted for Brexit. And nearly all of these opinions were spectacularly ill-informed, eg I would hear liberal Americans saying "why the fuck have you cut yourself off from your major market" and when I pointed out to them the huge democratic flaws in the EU they not only didn't understand, they didn't even have the first idea. "What, your supreme court sits in a different country, and speaks a different language, and you don't vote for the people that make the laws??!
etc etc ETC
So is it possible Trump is doing a Brexit. ie something that makes sense in American terms, but the rest of us simply don't "get", and maybe never will?
I am merely throwing up the idea. Because, to me these tariffs look like madness - even if they are just some bluff designed to get better terms for USA Inc - they have caused hideous instability which will not be forgotten
Are we missing something?
Hard to see how it could be wise. Nobody understands economics though, so hard to be sure.
Try
That's my point
Have a go
We're having a collective and almighty go at Trumpism - doesn't matter at all what I think, we're going to see.
Its very interesting about 1930s Samarkand and Bokhara.
I am reading it right now! Also Hopkirk's The Great Game
Sadly it doesn't quite match up to Simon Sebag Montefiore's effusive foreword. It is pretty good, it's certainly interesting because I am here - the trouble is the Moscow-based stuff on the Stalinist show trials is genuinely compelling but the travel stuff - which is the bulk of the book - is a little ho-hum. He didn't really do much, in Central Asia?
However, I am only about halfway through, so maybe it will pick up
This site is (understandably) united in condemning this Tarrify Trumpsterfuck
Perhaps someone needs to raise a counter-argument. Why? Because I recall a similar chorus of scorn and disdain from non-Brits when we voted for Brexit. And nearly all of these opinions were spectacularly ill-informed, eg I would hear liberal Americans saying "why the fuck have you cut yourself off from your major market" and when I pointed out to them the huge democratic flaws in the EU they not only didn't understand, they didn't even have the first idea. "What, your supreme court sits in a different country, and speaks a different language, and you don't vote for the people that make the laws??!
etc etc ETC
So is it possible Trump is doing a Brexit. ie something that makes sense in American terms, but the rest of us simply don't "get", and maybe never will?
I am merely throwing up the idea. Because, to me these tariffs look like madness - even if they are just some bluff designed to get better terms for USA Inc - they have caused hideous instability which will not be forgotten
Are we missing something?
Hard to see how it could be wise. Nobody understands economics though, so hard to be sure.
A big shake-up of the global economy is bound to throw up plenty of new and worthwhile opportunities, and there has to be some possibility that they'll be enough to outweigh the damage caused.
Not sure I'd want to bet on it working out in the Trumpists favour, mind...
This site is (understandably) united in condemning this Tarrify Trumpsterfuck
Perhaps someone needs to raise a counter-argument. Why? Because I recall a similar chorus of scorn and disdain from non-Brits when we voted for Brexit. And nearly all of these opinions were spectacularly ill-informed, eg I would hear liberal Americans saying "why the fuck have you cut yourself off from your major market" and when I pointed out to them the huge democratic flaws in the EU they not only didn't understand, they didn't even have the first idea. "What, your supreme court sits in a different country, and speaks a different language, and you don't vote for the people that make the laws??!
etc etc ETC
So is it possible Trump is doing a Brexit. ie something that makes sense in American terms, but the rest of us simply don't "get", and maybe never will?
I am merely throwing up the idea. Because, to me these tariffs look like madness - even if they are just some bluff designed to get better terms for USA Inc - they have caused hideous instability which will not be forgotten
Are we missing something?
Hard to see how it could be wise. Nobody understands economics though, so hard to be sure.
Try
That's my point
Have a go
The US runs a trade deficit.
Trump wants to reduce the trade deficit.
This is not stupid. The US has - for some time - lived beyond its means.
It is not entirely stupid to use tariffs as a one of the ways of achieving this, because they act as a sales tax, increasing the price of goods, and therefore reducing demand for them. (Because spending is price elastic. The more something costs, the less you buy of it.)
However, the way the US government is going about it is fundamentally stupid.
Firstly, there is the focus on bilateral trade balances, which is (to put it generously) misguided. See my video from earlier for a primer on it.
Secondly, if you want the tariffs to be a bargaining chip to get others to reduce their tariffs (and non tariff barriers), then you need to be seen as a reliable partner who keeps their word. The focus on Canada (which only runs a trade surplus with the US because of the Keystone pipeline that Trump actively supported) and on fentanyl from there (which is non-existent) makes it hard for others to negotiate with the US.
Thirdly, a major issue is that Americans save too little, and spend too much! (See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2pKS2TCd_3c) If you want to fundamentally change the trade deficit, you need to increase US household savings rates. (The tariffs will do this, but not in a particularly efficient way.)
Fourth, by constantly flip flopping, you discourage American businesses from investing in domestic production. Why build a factory to make hats, if the US government is likely to cut hat tariffs in a year?
The right way forward for the US is a combination of:
(1) Encouraging the Europeans and the Chinese to consume more! They oversave, and that's a problem. But imposing tariffs on these countries will make the problem worse, not better.
(2) Tax incentives and cheap financing for people to build US manufacturing facilities.
(3) Changing individual incentives to increase household savings rates and discourage consumer debt.
That's how you rebalance the US economy, and you do it without pissing everyone off.
Why would you assume that Trump wants to use tariffs as a bargaining chip to get others to lower theirs when he has been very consistent in talking about using tariff revenue over the long term to fund the federal government? If he's constantly flip flopping, it's in order to reach a new normal with as little disruption as possible, not because he wants to abandon the policy.
This site is (understandably) united in condemning this Tarrify Trumpsterfuck
Perhaps someone needs to raise a counter-argument. Why? Because I recall a similar chorus of scorn and disdain from non-Brits when we voted for Brexit. And nearly all of these opinions were spectacularly ill-informed, eg I would hear liberal Americans saying "why the fuck have you cut yourself off from your major market" and when I pointed out to them the huge democratic flaws in the EU they not only didn't understand, they didn't even have the first idea. "What, your supreme court sits in a different country, and speaks a different language, and you don't vote for the people that make the laws??!
etc etc ETC
So is it possible Trump is doing a Brexit. ie something that makes sense in American terms, but the rest of us simply don't "get", and maybe never will?
I am merely throwing up the idea. Because, to me these tariffs look like madness - even if they are just some bluff designed to get better terms for USA Inc - they have caused hideous instability which will not be forgotten
Are we missing something?
Who is stupid enough not to get it?
The merit of tariffs is obvious. It leads to things being produced within the tariff barrier, or failing that, making a lot of tax money off imported goods.
Obviously they can be applied in a blundering or counterproductive way, but that isn't really my sense of what has happened. All I can really see is companies that have just been handed a huge bill, losing share value. Well obviously.
Of course, as a citizen of the UK, I am not pleased that we have been slapped by tariffs, and we should most certainly respond in kind. I think instinctively, I'd just whack up the digital sales tax. But we should also respond assertively to countries like India and China that have tariffs against us.
"It leads to things being produced within the tariff barrier"
The modern world isn't like that though. It is a complex web of supply chains.
Hospital leukemia checkup - saw the Consultant I lsat saw in 2023 when I was in hospital being de-absessed with surgery not applicable due to diabetic the healing times. He was the one who put me on a two week course of antibiotic infusions taking a couple of hours to drip in at 6am, 2pm and 10pm.
"You are back to normal" (that is, by the blood markers).
This site is (understandably) united in condemning this Tarrify Trumpsterfuck
Perhaps someone needs to raise a counter-argument. Why? Because I recall a similar chorus of scorn and disdain from non-Brits when we voted for Brexit. And nearly all of these opinions were spectacularly ill-informed, eg I would hear liberal Americans saying "why the fuck have you cut yourself off from your major market" and when I pointed out to them the huge democratic flaws in the EU they not only didn't understand, they didn't even have the first idea. "What, your supreme court sits in a different country, and speaks a different language, and you don't vote for the people that make the laws??!
etc etc ETC
So is it possible Trump is doing a Brexit. ie something that makes sense in American terms, but the rest of us simply don't "get", and maybe never will?
I am merely throwing up the idea. Because, to me these tariffs look like madness - even if they are just some bluff designed to get better terms for USA Inc - they have caused hideous instability which will not be forgotten
Are we missing something?
Who is stupid enough not to get it?
The merit of tariffs is obvious. It leads to things being produced within the tariff barrier, or failing that, making a lot of tax money off imported goods.
Obviously they can be applied in a blundering or counterproductive way, but that isn't really my sense of what has happened. All I can really see is companies that have just been handed a huge bill, losing share value. Well obviously.
Of course, as a citizen of the UK, I am not pleased that we have been slapped by tariffs, and we should most certainly respond in kind. I think instinctively, I'd just whack up the digital sales tax. But we should also respond assertively to countries like India and China that have tariffs against us.
Ummm:
If you keep flip flopping on tariffs, then who is going to invest in new US manufacturing capabilities?
I did post the other morning that I woke up with the terrible thought that what if Trump tariff madness did work, for Americans. What if 99% of world's economists are wrong?
Nigel Farage has spent the last decade licking the arse of a man who is now making millions of Britons poorer while having made all of us far less safe. It really should not be beyond the wit of his political rivals to make this point relentlessly.
Indeed. Labour need to hammer this every single day from now until 2028/9.
Farage is Britain Trump and he wants DOGE and all the attendant madness of a "reformation" and "clear out" etc etc.
That would be an implicit criticism of Trump, who Labour have been pretending to adore for the last three months or so though. How can they creditably do so? They can hardly say "We all slagged him off eight years ago when in opposition, then sucked up to him & said sorry last month, but now we've changed our minds again" can they?
"The UK's choice for the next ambassador to the US, Lord Peter Mandelson, has described his previous criticism of Donald Trump as "ill-judged and wrong".
Speaking in an interview with US broadcaster Fox News, he said the new US president had won "fresh respect" from him, adding he was "quite confident" Trump would approve of his appointment.
As part of the process Lord Mandelson's credentials have to be presented to Trump, which the president is reportedly expected to agree to.
In previous years, Lord Mandelson has described Trump as "reckless" and "a bully".
In an interview with an Italian journalist in 2019, he described Trump as "reckless and a danger to the world".
This followed a 2018 interview with the Evening Standard where he described Trump as "a bully".
But he told Fox News, external: "I made those remarks six years ago in 2019, led rather along this by an Italian journalist... it was a time in Britain by the way with very fraught politics and there was high emotion about many things in Britain at that time.
"I consider my remarks about President Trump as ill-judged and wrong."
This site is (understandably) united in condemning this Tarrify Trumpsterfuck
Perhaps someone needs to raise a counter-argument. Why? Because I recall a similar chorus of scorn and disdain from non-Brits when we voted for Brexit. And nearly all of these opinions were spectacularly ill-informed, eg I would hear liberal Americans saying "why the fuck have you cut yourself off from your major market" and when I pointed out to them the huge democratic flaws in the EU they not only didn't understand, they didn't even have the first idea. "What, your supreme court sits in a different country, and speaks a different language, and you don't vote for the people that make the laws??!
etc etc ETC
So is it possible Trump is doing a Brexit. ie something that makes sense in American terms, but the rest of us simply don't "get", and maybe never will?
I am merely throwing up the idea. Because, to me these tariffs look like madness - even if they are just some bluff designed to get better terms for USA Inc - they have caused hideous instability which will not be forgotten
Are we missing something?
Hard to see how it could be wise. Nobody understands economics though, so hard to be sure.
Try
That's my point
Have a go
The US runs a trade deficit.
Trump wants to reduce the trade deficit.
This is not stupid. The US has - for some time - lived beyond its means.
It is not entirely stupid to use tariffs as a one of the ways of achieving this, because they act as a sales tax, increasing the price of goods, and therefore reducing demand for them. (Because spending is price elastic. The more something costs, the less you buy of it.)
However, the way the US government is going about it is fundamentally stupid.
Firstly, there is the focus on bilateral trade balances, which is (to put it generously) misguided. See my video from earlier for a primer on it.
Secondly, if you want the tariffs to be a bargaining chip to get others to reduce their tariffs (and non tariff barriers), then you need to be seen as a reliable partner who keeps their word. The focus on Canada (which only runs a trade surplus with the US because of the Keystone pipeline that Trump actively supported) and on fentanyl from there (which is non-existent) makes it hard for others to negotiate with the US.
Thirdly, a major issue is that Americans save too little, and spend too much! (See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2pKS2TCd_3c) If you want to fundamentally change the trade deficit, you need to increase US household savings rates. (The tariffs will do this, but not in a particularly efficient way.)
Fourth, by constantly flip flopping, you discourage American businesses from investing in domestic production. Why build a factory to make hats, if the US government is likely to cut hat tariffs in a year?
The right way forward for the US is a combination of:
(1) Encouraging the Europeans and the Chinese to consume more! They oversave, and that's a problem. But imposing tariffs on these countries will make the problem worse, not better.
(2) Tax incentives and cheap financing for people to build US manufacturing facilities.
(3) Changing individual incentives to increase household savings rates and discourage consumer debt.
That's how you rebalance the US economy, and you do it without pissing everyone off.
Isn't a problem that the USA (and to a lesser extent the UK) has is that if you want to increase household savings that you need to reduce inequality ?
There being many millions who cannot increase their savings rate because they've got no money and don't have the skillset to increase their earnings.
And there being many million who do have money but are already heavily saving.
The number of people who could save more being relatively limited.
Similarly another economic problem is that:
There are many millions of people who need to earn more but don't have the skills.
Many millions of people who could earn more but don't need to.
And relatively few people who have both the ability and desire to earn more.
And its that smaller third group which tends to drive economic growth.
I did post the other morning that I woke up with the terrible thought that what if Trump tariff madness did work, for Americans. What if 99% of world's economists are wrong?
This site is (understandably) united in condemning this Tarrify Trumpsterfuck
Perhaps someone needs to raise a counter-argument. Why? Because I recall a similar chorus of scorn and disdain from non-Brits when we voted for Brexit. And nearly all of these opinions were spectacularly ill-informed, eg I would hear liberal Americans saying "why the fuck have you cut yourself off from your major market" and when I pointed out to them the huge democratic flaws in the EU they not only didn't understand, they didn't even have the first idea. "What, your supreme court sits in a different country, and speaks a different language, and you don't vote for the people that make the laws??!
etc etc ETC
So is it possible Trump is doing a Brexit. ie something that makes sense in American terms, but the rest of us simply don't "get", and maybe never will?
I am merely throwing up the idea. Because, to me these tariffs look like madness - even if they are just some bluff designed to get better terms for USA Inc - they have caused hideous instability which will not be forgotten
Are we missing something?
Hard to see how it could be wise. Nobody understands economics though, so hard to be sure.
Try
That's my point
Have a go
The US runs a trade deficit.
Trump wants to reduce the trade deficit.
This is not stupid. The US has - for some time - lived beyond its means.
It is not entirely stupid to use tariffs as a one of the ways of achieving this, because they act as a sales tax, increasing the price of goods, and therefore reducing demand for them. (Because spending is price elastic. The more something costs, the less you buy of it.)
However, the way the US government is going about it is fundamentally stupid.
Firstly, there is the focus on bilateral trade balances, which is (to put it generously) misguided. See my video from earlier for a primer on it.
Secondly, if you want the tariffs to be a bargaining chip to get others to reduce their tariffs (and non tariff barriers), then you need to be seen as a reliable partner who keeps their word. The focus on Canada (which only runs a trade surplus with the US because of the Keystone pipeline that Trump actively supported) and on fentanyl from there (which is non-existent) makes it hard for others to negotiate with the US.
Thirdly, a major issue is that Americans save too little, and spend too much! (See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2pKS2TCd_3c) If you want to fundamentally change the trade deficit, you need to increase US household savings rates. (The tariffs will do this, but not in a particularly efficient way.)
Fourth, by constantly flip flopping, you discourage American businesses from investing in domestic production. Why build a factory to make hats, if the US government is likely to cut hat tariffs in a year?
The right way forward for the US is a combination of:
(1) Encouraging the Europeans and the Chinese to consume more! They oversave, and that's a problem. But imposing tariffs on these countries will make the problem worse, not better.
(2) Tax incentives and cheap financing for people to build US manufacturing facilities.
(3) Changing individual incentives to increase household savings rates and discourage consumer debt.
That's how you rebalance the US economy, and you do it without pissing everyone off.
Why would you assume that Trump wants to use tariffs as a bargaining chip to get others to lower theirs when he has been very consistent in talking about using tariff revenue over the long term to fund the federal government? If he's constantly flip flopping, it's in order to reach a new normal with as little disruption as possible, not because he wants to abandon the policy.
This site is (understandably) united in condemning this Tarrify Trumpsterfuck
Perhaps someone needs to raise a counter-argument. Why? Because I recall a similar chorus of scorn and disdain from non-Brits when we voted for Brexit. And nearly all of these opinions were spectacularly ill-informed, eg I would hear liberal Americans saying "why the fuck have you cut yourself off from your major market" and when I pointed out to them the huge democratic flaws in the EU they not only didn't understand, they didn't even have the first idea. "What, your supreme court sits in a different country, and speaks a different language, and you don't vote for the people that make the laws??!
etc etc ETC
So is it possible Trump is doing a Brexit. ie something that makes sense in American terms, but the rest of us simply don't "get", and maybe never will?
I am merely throwing up the idea. Because, to me these tariffs look like madness - even if they are just some bluff designed to get better terms for USA Inc - they have caused hideous instability which will not be forgotten
Are we missing something?
Who is stupid enough not to get it?
The merit of tariffs is obvious. It leads to things being produced within the tariff barrier, or failing that, making a lot of tax money off imported goods.
Obviously they can be applied in a blundering or counterproductive way, but that isn't really my sense of what has happened. All I can really see is companies that have just been handed a huge bill, losing share value. Well obviously.
Of course, as a citizen of the UK, I am not pleased that we have been slapped by tariffs, and we should most certainly respond in kind. I think instinctively, I'd just whack up the digital sales tax. But we should also respond assertively to countries like India and China that have tariffs against us.
"It leads to things being produced within the tariff barrier"
The modern world isn't like that though. It is a complex web of supply chains.
True. And one of the biggest factors against the success of the experiment is the probability that the Democrats will reverse the policy. But I still think they might see some production return. Obviously those announcements won't happen the day after - it would be loony for the likes of Nike to endorse tariffs against them that way.
Hospital leukemia checkup - saw the Consultant I lsat saw in 2023 when I was in hospital being de-absessed with surgery not applicable due to diabetic the healing times. He was the one who put me on a two week course of antibiotic infusions taking a couple of hours to drip in at 6am, 2pm and 10pm.
"You are back to normal" (that is, by the blood markers).
This site is (understandably) united in condemning this Tarrify Trumpsterfuck
Perhaps someone needs to raise a counter-argument. Why? Because I recall a similar chorus of scorn and disdain from non-Brits when we voted for Brexit. And nearly all of these opinions were spectacularly ill-informed, eg I would hear liberal Americans saying "why the fuck have you cut yourself off from your major market" and when I pointed out to them the huge democratic flaws in the EU they not only didn't understand, they didn't even have the first idea. "What, your supreme court sits in a different country, and speaks a different language, and you don't vote for the people that make the laws??!
etc etc ETC
So is it possible Trump is doing a Brexit. ie something that makes sense in American terms, but the rest of us simply don't "get", and maybe never will?
I am merely throwing up the idea. Because, to me these tariffs look like madness - even if they are just some bluff designed to get better terms for USA Inc - they have caused hideous instability which will not be forgotten
Are we missing something?
Hard to see how it could be wise. Nobody understands economics though, so hard to be sure.
Try
That's my point
Have a go
The US runs a trade deficit.
Trump wants to reduce the trade deficit.
This is not stupid. The US has - for some time - lived beyond its means.
It is not entirely stupid to use tariffs as a one of the ways of achieving this, because they act as a sales tax, increasing the price of goods, and therefore reducing demand for them. (Because spending is price elastic. The more something costs, the less you buy of it.)
However, the way the US government is going about it is fundamentally stupid.
Firstly, there is the focus on bilateral trade balances, which is (to put it generously) misguided. See my video from earlier for a primer on it.
Secondly, if you want the tariffs to be a bargaining chip to get others to reduce their tariffs (and non tariff barriers), then you need to be seen as a reliable partner who keeps their word. The focus on Canada (which only runs a trade surplus with the US because of the Keystone pipeline that Trump actively supported) and on fentanyl from there (which is non-existent) makes it hard for others to negotiate with the US.
Thirdly, a major issue is that Americans save too little, and spend too much! (See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2pKS2TCd_3c) If you want to fundamentally change the trade deficit, you need to increase US household savings rates. (The tariffs will do this, but not in a particularly efficient way.)
Fourth, by constantly flip flopping, you discourage American businesses from investing in domestic production. Why build a factory to make hats, if the US government is likely to cut hat tariffs in a year?
The right way forward for the US is a combination of:
(1) Encouraging the Europeans and the Chinese to consume more! They oversave, and that's a problem. But imposing tariffs on these countries will make the problem worse, not better.
(2) Tax incentives and cheap financing for people to build US manufacturing facilities.
(3) Changing individual incentives to increase household savings rates and discourage consumer debt.
That's how you rebalance the US economy, and you do it without pissing everyone off.
Why would you assume that Trump wants to use tariffs as a bargaining chip to get others to lower theirs when he has been very consistent in talking about using tariff revenue over the long term to fund the federal government? If he's constantly flip flopping, it's in order to reach a new normal with as little disruption as possible, not because he wants to abandon the policy.
Nigel Farage has spent the last decade licking the arse of a man who is now making millions of Britons poorer while having made all of us far less safe. It really should not be beyond the wit of his political rivals to make this point relentlessly.
Indeed. Labour need to hammer this every single day from now until 2028/9.
Farage is Britain Trump and he wants DOGE and all the attendant madness of a "reformation" and "clear out" etc etc.
That would be an implicit criticism of Trump, who Labour have been pretending to adore for the last three months or so though. How can they creditably do so? They can hardly say "We all slagged him off eight years ago when in opposition, then sucked up to him & said sorry last month, but now we've changed our minds again" can they?
"The UK's choice for the next ambassador to the US, Lord Peter Mandelson, has described his previous criticism of Donald Trump as "ill-judged and wrong".
Speaking in an interview with US broadcaster Fox News, he said the new US president had won "fresh respect" from him, adding he was "quite confident" Trump would approve of his appointment.
As part of the process Lord Mandelson's credentials have to be presented to Trump, which the president is reportedly expected to agree to.
In previous years, Lord Mandelson has described Trump as "reckless" and "a bully".
In an interview with an Italian journalist in 2019, he described Trump as "reckless and a danger to the world".
This followed a 2018 interview with the Evening Standard where he described Trump as "a bully".
But he told Fox News, external: "I made those remarks six years ago in 2019, led rather along this by an Italian journalist... it was a time in Britain by the way with very fraught politics and there was high emotion about many things in Britain at that time.
"I consider my remarks about President Trump as ill-judged and wrong."
This site is (understandably) united in condemning this Tarrify Trumpsterfuck
Perhaps someone needs to raise a counter-argument. Why? Because I recall a similar chorus of scorn and disdain from non-Brits when we voted for Brexit. And nearly all of these opinions were spectacularly ill-informed, eg I would hear liberal Americans saying "why the fuck have you cut yourself off from your major market" and when I pointed out to them the huge democratic flaws in the EU they not only didn't understand, they didn't even have the first idea. "What, your supreme court sits in a different country, and speaks a different language, and you don't vote for the people that make the laws??!
etc etc ETC
So is it possible Trump is doing a Brexit. ie something that makes sense in American terms, but the rest of us simply don't "get", and maybe never will?
I am merely throwing up the idea. Because, to me these tariffs look like madness - even if they are just some bluff designed to get better terms for USA Inc - they have caused hideous instability which will not be forgotten
Are we missing something?
Hard to see how it could be wise. Nobody understands economics though, so hard to be sure.
A big shake-up of the global economy is bound to throw up plenty of new and worthwhile opportunities, and there has to be some possibility that they'll be enough to outweigh the damage caused.
Not sure I'd want to bet on it working out in the Trumpists favour, mind...
I'm sure you're right. Trade is very likely to continue.
It's really not so much of a shake-up, although I think it's reasonable that the markets have reacted as they have. The door is open for far worse after all.
This site is (understandably) united in condemning this Tarrify Trumpsterfuck
Perhaps someone needs to raise a counter-argument. Why? Because I recall a similar chorus of scorn and disdain from non-Brits when we voted for Brexit. And nearly all of these opinions were spectacularly ill-informed, eg I would hear liberal Americans saying "why the fuck have you cut yourself off from your major market" and when I pointed out to them the huge democratic flaws in the EU they not only didn't understand, they didn't even have the first idea. "What, your supreme court sits in a different country, and speaks a different language, and you don't vote for the people that make the laws??!
etc etc ETC
So is it possible Trump is doing a Brexit. ie something that makes sense in American terms, but the rest of us simply don't "get", and maybe never will?
I am merely throwing up the idea. Because, to me these tariffs look like madness - even if they are just some bluff designed to get better terms for USA Inc - they have caused hideous instability which will not be forgotten
Are we missing something?
Hard to see how it could be wise. Nobody understands economics though, so hard to be sure.
Try
That's my point
Have a go
The US runs a trade deficit.
Trump wants to reduce the trade deficit.
This is not stupid. The US has - for some time - lived beyond its means.
It is not entirely stupid to use tariffs as a one of the ways of achieving this, because they act as a sales tax, increasing the price of goods, and therefore reducing demand for them. (Because spending is price elastic. The more something costs, the less you buy of it.)
However, the way the US government is going about it is fundamentally stupid.
Firstly, there is the focus on bilateral trade balances, which is (to put it generously) misguided. See my video from earlier for a primer on it.
Secondly, if you want the tariffs to be a bargaining chip to get others to reduce their tariffs (and non tariff barriers), then you need to be seen as a reliable partner who keeps their word. The focus on Canada (which only runs a trade surplus with the US because of the Keystone pipeline that Trump actively supported) and on fentanyl from there (which is non-existent) makes it hard for others to negotiate with the US.
Thirdly, a major issue is that Americans save too little, and spend too much! (See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2pKS2TCd_3c) If you want to fundamentally change the trade deficit, you need to increase US household savings rates. (The tariffs will do this, but not in a particularly efficient way.)
Fourth, by constantly flip flopping, you discourage American businesses from investing in domestic production. Why build a factory to make hats, if the US government is likely to cut hat tariffs in a year?
The right way forward for the US is a combination of:
(1) Encouraging the Europeans and the Chinese to consume more! They oversave, and that's a problem. But imposing tariffs on these countries will make the problem worse, not better.
(2) Tax incentives and cheap financing for people to build US manufacturing facilities.
(3) Changing individual incentives to increase household savings rates and discourage consumer debt.
That's how you rebalance the US economy, and you do it without pissing everyone off.
Why would you assume that Trump wants to use tariffs as a bargaining chip to get others to lower theirs when he has been very consistent in talking about using tariff revenue over the long term to fund the federal government? If he's constantly flip flopping, it's in order to reach a new normal with as little disruption as possible, not because he wants to abandon the policy.
Several other PB Trump supporters appear to have gone into hiding.
Yes, TBF, kudos to William for sticking his head above the parapet.
But he's behind an irony shield. Then we have Topping using it to troll "the left". And of course Leon doing a mix of these plus seeking to stand out as 'free thinking'. All in all nobody is doing it (Trump support) straight. Perhaps that Moonshine poster would give it a crack if he were here. Been a while.
Look, I'm not pretending I don't think he spouts nonsense most of the time. But which of us can claim we don't at least occasionally do the same ?
It's up to the mods to decide whether he's just a troll. Which, while he often trolls, I don't think he is entirely.
And it does provide an interactive viewpoint from the orange side.
I did post the other morning that I woke up with the terrible thought that what if Trump tariff madness did work, for Americans. What if 99% of world's economists are wrong?
He'd win a landslide for the third term.
I felt sick.
How would you define 'work for Americans' ?
More jobs ? Lower prices ? Lower taxes ? Bigger pension pots ?
Hospital leukemia checkup - saw the Consultant I lsat saw in 2023 when I was in hospital being de-absessed with surgery not applicable due to diabetic the healing times. He was the one who put me on a two week course of antibiotic infusions taking a couple of hours to drip in at 6am, 2pm and 10pm.
"You are back to normal" (that is, by the blood markers).
This site is (understandably) united in condemning this Tarrify Trumpsterfuck
Perhaps someone needs to raise a counter-argument. Why? Because I recall a similar chorus of scorn and disdain from non-Brits when we voted for Brexit. And nearly all of these opinions were spectacularly ill-informed, eg I would hear liberal Americans saying "why the fuck have you cut yourself off from your major market" and when I pointed out to them the huge democratic flaws in the EU they not only didn't understand, they didn't even have the first idea. "What, your supreme court sits in a different country, and speaks a different language, and you don't vote for the people that make the laws??!
etc etc ETC
So is it possible Trump is doing a Brexit. ie something that makes sense in American terms, but the rest of us simply don't "get", and maybe never will?
I am merely throwing up the idea. Because, to me these tariffs look like madness - even if they are just some bluff designed to get better terms for USA Inc - they have caused hideous instability which will not be forgotten
Are we missing something?
Hard to see how it could be wise. Nobody understands economics though, so hard to be sure.
Try
That's my point
Have a go
The US runs a trade deficit.
Trump wants to reduce the trade deficit.
This is not stupid. The US has - for some time - lived beyond its means.
It is not entirely stupid to use tariffs as a one of the ways of achieving this, because they act as a sales tax, increasing the price of goods, and therefore reducing demand for them. (Because spending is price elastic. The more something costs, the less you buy of it.)
However, the way the US government is going about it is fundamentally stupid.
Firstly, there is the focus on bilateral trade balances, which is (to put it generously) misguided. See my video from earlier for a primer on it.
Secondly, if you want the tariffs to be a bargaining chip to get others to reduce their tariffs (and non tariff barriers), then you need to be seen as a reliable partner who keeps their word. The focus on Canada (which only runs a trade surplus with the US because of the Keystone pipeline that Trump actively supported) and on fentanyl from there (which is non-existent) makes it hard for others to negotiate with the US.
Thirdly, a major issue is that Americans save too little, and spend too much! (See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2pKS2TCd_3c) If you want to fundamentally change the trade deficit, you need to increase US household savings rates. (The tariffs will do this, but not in a particularly efficient way.)
Fourth, by constantly flip flopping, you discourage American businesses from investing in domestic production. Why build a factory to make hats, if the US government is likely to cut hat tariffs in a year?
The right way forward for the US is a combination of:
(1) Encouraging the Europeans and the Chinese to consume more! They oversave, and that's a problem. But imposing tariffs on these countries will make the problem worse, not better.
(2) Tax incentives and cheap financing for people to build US manufacturing facilities.
(3) Changing individual incentives to increase household savings rates and discourage consumer debt.
That's how you rebalance the US economy, and you do it without pissing everyone off.
Why would you assume that Trump wants to use tariffs as a bargaining chip to get others to lower theirs when he has been very consistent in talking about using tariff revenue over the long term to fund the federal government? If he's constantly flip flopping, it's in order to reach a new normal with as little disruption as possible, not because he wants to abandon the policy.
This site is (understandably) united in condemning this Tarrify Trumpsterfuck
Perhaps someone needs to raise a counter-argument. Why? Because I recall a similar chorus of scorn and disdain from non-Brits when we voted for Brexit. And nearly all of these opinions were spectacularly ill-informed, eg I would hear liberal Americans saying "why the fuck have you cut yourself off from your major market" and when I pointed out to them the huge democratic flaws in the EU they not only didn't understand, they didn't even have the first idea. "What, your supreme court sits in a different country, and speaks a different language, and you don't vote for the people that make the laws??!
etc etc ETC
So is it possible Trump is doing a Brexit. ie something that makes sense in American terms, but the rest of us simply don't "get", and maybe never will?
I am merely throwing up the idea. Because, to me these tariffs look like madness - even if they are just some bluff designed to get better terms for USA Inc - they have caused hideous instability which will not be forgotten
Are we missing something?
Hard to see how it could be wise. Nobody understands economics though, so hard to be sure.
Try
That's my point
Have a go
The US runs a trade deficit.
Trump wants to reduce the trade deficit.
This is not stupid. The US has - for some time - lived beyond its means.
It is not entirely stupid to use tariffs as a one of the ways of achieving this, because they act as a sales tax, increasing the price of goods, and therefore reducing demand for them. (Because spending is price elastic. The more something costs, the less you buy of it.)
However, the way the US government is going about it is fundamentally stupid.
Firstly, there is the focus on bilateral trade balances, which is (to put it generously) misguided. See my video from earlier for a primer on it.
Secondly, if you want the tariffs to be a bargaining chip to get others to reduce their tariffs (and non tariff barriers), then you need to be seen as a reliable partner who keeps their word. The focus on Canada (which only runs a trade surplus with the US because of the Keystone pipeline that Trump actively supported) and on fentanyl from there (which is non-existent) makes it hard for others to negotiate with the US.
Thirdly, a major issue is that Americans save too little, and spend too much! (See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2pKS2TCd_3c) If you want to fundamentally change the trade deficit, you need to increase US household savings rates. (The tariffs will do this, but not in a particularly efficient way.)
Fourth, by constantly flip flopping, you discourage American businesses from investing in domestic production. Why build a factory to make hats, if the US government is likely to cut hat tariffs in a year?
The right way forward for the US is a combination of:
(1) Encouraging the Europeans and the Chinese to consume more! They oversave, and that's a problem. But imposing tariffs on these countries will make the problem worse, not better.
(2) Tax incentives and cheap financing for people to build US manufacturing facilities.
(3) Changing individual incentives to increase household savings rates and discourage consumer debt.
That's how you rebalance the US economy, and you do it without pissing everyone off.
Isn't a problem that the USA (and to a lesser extent the UK) has is that if you want to increase household savings that you need to reduce inequality ?
There being many millions who cannot increase their savings rate because they've got no money and don't have the skillset to increase their earnings.
And there being many million who do have money but are already heavily saving.
The number of people who could save more being relatively limited.
Similarly another economic problem is that:
There are many millions of people who need to earn more but don't have the skills.
Many millions of people who could earn more but don't need to.
And relatively few people who have both the ability and desire to earn more.
And its that smaller third group which tends to drive economic growth.
There's a lot of truth in that, and a particular bugbear of mine is that the UK tax and benefits system seems expressly designed to discourage British people from working, therefore creating demand for immigrants.
Hospital leukemia checkup - saw the Consultant I lsat saw in 2023 when I was in hospital being de-absessed with surgery not applicable due to diabetic the healing times. He was the one who put me on a two week course of antibiotic infusions taking a couple of hours to drip in at 6am, 2pm and 10pm.
"You are back to normal" (that is, by the blood markers).
Bugger - I'm am now plumb out of excuses.
Fantastic news.
Thanks (and to the likers). Apparently the Hairy Bone Marrow cells * are down to a whisker - under 1%, so it should be a few years before it comes out of remission significantly.
* Not quite right - it's the blood cells that go 'Hairy', but it's near enough.
Hairy cell leukemia (HCL) is a rare, slow-growing type of blood cancer that affects white blood cells called B lymphocytes, characterized by abnormal B cells with hair-like projections under a microscope. (Me: the docs characterise slow-growing as "indolent").
My photo quota: Hairy Cells. There like one of those things you use to wash your window.
Nigel Farage has spent the last decade licking the arse of a man who is now making millions of Britons poorer while having made all of us far less safe. It really should not be beyond the wit of his political rivals to make this point relentlessly.
Indeed. Labour need to hammer this every single day from now until 2028/9.
Farage is Britain Trump and he wants DOGE and all the attendant madness of a "reformation" and "clear out" etc etc.
That would be an implicit criticism of Trump, who Labour have been pretending to adore for the last three months or so though. How can they creditably do so? They can hardly say "We all slagged him off eight years ago when in opposition, then sucked up to him & said sorry last month, but now we've changed our minds again" can they?
"The UK's choice for the next ambassador to the US, Lord Peter Mandelson, has described his previous criticism of Donald Trump as "ill-judged and wrong".
Speaking in an interview with US broadcaster Fox News, he said the new US president had won "fresh respect" from him, adding he was "quite confident" Trump would approve of his appointment.
As part of the process Lord Mandelson's credentials have to be presented to Trump, which the president is reportedly expected to agree to.
In previous years, Lord Mandelson has described Trump as "reckless" and "a bully".
In an interview with an Italian journalist in 2019, he described Trump as "reckless and a danger to the world".
This followed a 2018 interview with the Evening Standard where he described Trump as "a bully".
But he told Fox News, external: "I made those remarks six years ago in 2019, led rather along this by an Italian journalist... it was a time in Britain by the way with very fraught politics and there was high emotion about many things in Britain at that time.
"I consider my remarks about President Trump as ill-judged and wrong."
This site is (understandably) united in condemning this Tarrify Trumpsterfuck
Perhaps someone needs to raise a counter-argument. Why? Because I recall a similar chorus of scorn and disdain from non-Brits when we voted for Brexit. And nearly all of these opinions were spectacularly ill-informed, eg I would hear liberal Americans saying "why the fuck have you cut yourself off from your major market" and when I pointed out to them the huge democratic flaws in the EU they not only didn't understand, they didn't even have the first idea. "What, your supreme court sits in a different country, and speaks a different language, and you don't vote for the people that make the laws??!
etc etc ETC
So is it possible Trump is doing a Brexit. ie something that makes sense in American terms, but the rest of us simply don't "get", and maybe never will?
I am merely throwing up the idea. Because, to me these tariffs look like madness - even if they are just some bluff designed to get better terms for USA Inc - they have caused hideous instability which will not be forgotten
Are we missing something?
Hard to see how it could be wise. Nobody understands economics though, so hard to be sure.
Try
That's my point
Have a go
The US runs a trade deficit.
Trump wants to reduce the trade deficit.
This is not stupid. The US has - for some time - lived beyond its means.
It is not entirely stupid to use tariffs as a one of the ways of achieving this, because they act as a sales tax, increasing the price of goods, and therefore reducing demand for them. (Because spending is price elastic. The more something costs, the less you buy of it.)
However, the way the US government is going about it is fundamentally stupid.
Firstly, there is the focus on bilateral trade balances, which is (to put it generously) misguided. See my video from earlier for a primer on it.
Secondly, if you want the tariffs to be a bargaining chip to get others to reduce their tariffs (and non tariff barriers), then you need to be seen as a reliable partner who keeps their word. The focus on Canada (which only runs a trade surplus with the US because of the Keystone pipeline that Trump actively supported) and on fentanyl from there (which is non-existent) makes it hard for others to negotiate with the US.
Thirdly, a major issue is that Americans save too little, and spend too much! (See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2pKS2TCd_3c) If you want to fundamentally change the trade deficit, you need to increase US household savings rates. (The tariffs will do this, but not in a particularly efficient way.)
Fourth, by constantly flip flopping, you discourage American businesses from investing in domestic production. Why build a factory to make hats, if the US government is likely to cut hat tariffs in a year?
The right way forward for the US is a combination of:
(1) Encouraging the Europeans and the Chinese to consume more! They oversave, and that's a problem. But imposing tariffs on these countries will make the problem worse, not better.
(2) Tax incentives and cheap financing for people to build US manufacturing facilities.
(3) Changing individual incentives to increase household savings rates and discourage consumer debt.
That's how you rebalance the US economy, and you do it without pissing everyone off.
Why would you assume that Trump wants to use tariffs as a bargaining chip to get others to lower theirs when he has been very consistent in talking about using tariff revenue over the long term to fund the federal government? If he's constantly flip flopping, it's in order to reach a new normal with as little disruption as possible, not because he wants to abandon the policy.
This site is (understandably) united in condemning this Tarrify Trumpsterfuck
Perhaps someone needs to raise a counter-argument. Why? Because I recall a similar chorus of scorn and disdain from non-Brits when we voted for Brexit. And nearly all of these opinions were spectacularly ill-informed, eg I would hear liberal Americans saying "why the fuck have you cut yourself off from your major market" and when I pointed out to them the huge democratic flaws in the EU they not only didn't understand, they didn't even have the first idea. "What, your supreme court sits in a different country, and speaks a different language, and you don't vote for the people that make the laws??!
etc etc ETC
So is it possible Trump is doing a Brexit. ie something that makes sense in American terms, but the rest of us simply don't "get", and maybe never will?
I am merely throwing up the idea. Because, to me these tariffs look like madness - even if they are just some bluff designed to get better terms for USA Inc - they have caused hideous instability which will not be forgotten
Are we missing something?
The world will adjust. The issue is how long that will take, how much pain there will be in the meantime and whether it is worth it. Trump and his cohorts have a deep seated conviction about the absolute power of the US to dictate to the rest of the world and that the world will fall into line. So, all this makes total sense to them as they believe the US will withstand and in the end it will lead to a lower deficit, lower taxes and a stronger American economy. Whether they are right or entirely deluded is what is now in play.
Contrarianism to test if there might be in something after all is worth doing, but with Trump there's always been a lot of 'there must be some secret sense behind X' which has been wishful thinking, when often the simpler explanation makes more sense. Even if Trump is somehow right on this one for the long term there'll be plenty of pain for them and the rest of us in the meantime.
I don't think he is right. I don't think the US is big enough to dictate to the world. I think he has the world view of a New York property developer and that while his tactics may work there, the global economy is a whole lot more nuanced and complex than that. The US is 13% of it. That's big but it can be worked around.
This site is (understandably) united in condemning this Tarrify Trumpsterfuck
Perhaps someone needs to raise a counter-argument. Why? Because I recall a similar chorus of scorn and disdain from non-Brits when we voted for Brexit. And nearly all of these opinions were spectacularly ill-informed, eg I would hear liberal Americans saying "why the fuck have you cut yourself off from your major market" and when I pointed out to them the huge democratic flaws in the EU they not only didn't understand, they didn't even have the first idea. "What, your supreme court sits in a different country, and speaks a different language, and you don't vote for the people that make the laws??!
etc etc ETC
So is it possible Trump is doing a Brexit. ie something that makes sense in American terms, but the rest of us simply don't "get", and maybe never will?
I am merely throwing up the idea. Because, to me these tariffs look like madness - even if they are just some bluff designed to get better terms for USA Inc - they have caused hideous instability which will not be forgotten
Are we missing something?
Hard to see how it could be wise. Nobody understands economics though, so hard to be sure.
Try
That's my point
Have a go
The US runs a trade deficit.
Trump wants to reduce the trade deficit.
This is not stupid. The US has - for some time - lived beyond its means.
It is not entirely stupid to use tariffs as a one of the ways of achieving this, because they act as a sales tax, increasing the price of goods, and therefore reducing demand for them. (Because spending is price elastic. The more something costs, the less you buy of it.)
However, the way the US government is going about it is fundamentally stupid.
Firstly, there is the focus on bilateral trade balances, which is (to put it generously) misguided. See my video from earlier for a primer on it.
Secondly, if you want the tariffs to be a bargaining chip to get others to reduce their tariffs (and non tariff barriers), then you need to be seen as a reliable partner who keeps their word. The focus on Canada (which only runs a trade surplus with the US because of the Keystone pipeline that Trump actively supported) and on fentanyl from there (which is non-existent) makes it hard for others to negotiate with the US.
Thirdly, a major issue is that Americans save too little, and spend too much! (See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2pKS2TCd_3c) If you want to fundamentally change the trade deficit, you need to increase US household savings rates. (The tariffs will do this, but not in a particularly efficient way.)
Fourth, by constantly flip flopping, you discourage American businesses from investing in domestic production. Why build a factory to make hats, if the US government is likely to cut hat tariffs in a year?
The right way forward for the US is a combination of:
(1) Encouraging the Europeans and the Chinese to consume more! They oversave, and that's a problem. But imposing tariffs on these countries will make the problem worse, not better.
(2) Tax incentives and cheap financing for people to build US manufacturing facilities.
(3) Changing individual incentives to increase household savings rates and discourage consumer debt.
That's how you rebalance the US economy, and you do it without pissing everyone off.
Why would you assume that Trump wants to use tariffs as a bargaining chip to get others to lower theirs when he has been very consistent in talking about using tariff revenue over the long term to fund the federal government? If he's constantly flip flopping, it's in order to reach a new normal with as little disruption as possible, not because he wants to abandon the policy.
Hospital leukemia checkup - saw the Consultant I lsat saw in 2023 when I was in hospital being de-absessed with surgery not applicable due to diabetic the healing times. He was the one who put me on a two week course of antibiotic infusions taking a couple of hours to drip in at 6am, 2pm and 10pm.
"You are back to normal" (that is, by the blood markers).
Bugger - I'm am now plumb out of excuses.
Fantastic news.
Apparently the Hairy Bone Marrow cells * are down to a whisker - under 1%, so it should be a few years before it comes out of remission significantly.
* Not quite right - it's the blood cells that go 'Hairy', but it's near enough.
Hairy cell leukemia (HCL) is a rare, slow-growing type of blood cancer that affects white blood cells called B lymphocytes, characterized by abnormal B cells with hair-like projections under a microscope. (Me: the docs characterise slow-growing as "indolent").
My photo quota: Hairy Cells. There like one of those things you use to wash your window.
I send you every good wish over your health issues
I have experienced life threatening health issues over the last 18 months, and just grateful my haematologist, cardiologist and vascular surgeon have all signed me off in the last 3 weeks until next year
This site is (understandably) united in condemning this Tarrify Trumpsterfuck
Perhaps someone needs to raise a counter-argument. Why? Because I recall a similar chorus of scorn and disdain from non-Brits when we voted for Brexit. And nearly all of these opinions were spectacularly ill-informed, eg I would hear liberal Americans saying "why the fuck have you cut yourself off from your major market" and when I pointed out to them the huge democratic flaws in the EU they not only didn't understand, they didn't even have the first idea. "What, your supreme court sits in a different country, and speaks a different language, and you don't vote for the people that make the laws??!
etc etc ETC
So is it possible Trump is doing a Brexit. ie something that makes sense in American terms, but the rest of us simply don't "get", and maybe never will?
I am merely throwing up the idea. Because, to me these tariffs look like madness - even if they are just some bluff designed to get better terms for USA Inc - they have caused hideous instability which will not be forgotten
Are we missing something?
Who is stupid enough not to get it?
The merit of tariffs is obvious. It leads to things being produced within the tariff barrier, or failing that, making a lot of tax money off imported goods.
Obviously they can be applied in a blundering or counterproductive way, but that isn't really my sense of what has happened. All I can really see is companies that have just been handed a huge bill, losing share value. Well obviously.
Of course, as a citizen of the UK, I am not pleased that we have been slapped by tariffs, and we should most certainly respond in kind. I think instinctively, I'd just whack up the digital sales tax. But we should also respond assertively to countries like India and China that have tariffs against us.
"It leads to things being produced within the tariff barrier"
The modern world isn't like that though. It is a complex web of supply chains.
True. And one of the biggest factors against the success of the experiment is the probability that the Democrats will reverse the policy. But I still think they might see some production return. Obviously those announcements won't happen the day after - it would be loony for the likes of Nike to endorse tariffs against them that way.
My view is still that - assuming the Constitutional Republic continues to exist - it will really need a bout of constutional reform as happened in the 1860s after the Civil War, and the 1950s-1960s (ish) to deal with some of the flaws that have come to light. But that depends on election results.
I'd be wanting the Presidential Pardon abolished, for one thing, and replaced with something to be used about 99.8% less. I have no idea how that would work in the USA system, but it's one channel of major corruption that needs to go.
This site is (understandably) united in condemning this Tarrify Trumpsterfuck
Perhaps someone needs to raise a counter-argument. Why? Because I recall a similar chorus of scorn and disdain from non-Brits when we voted for Brexit. And nearly all of these opinions were spectacularly ill-informed, eg I would hear liberal Americans saying "why the fuck have you cut yourself off from your major market" and when I pointed out to them the huge democratic flaws in the EU they not only didn't understand, they didn't even have the first idea. "What, your supreme court sits in a different country, and speaks a different language, and you don't vote for the people that make the laws??!
etc etc ETC
So is it possible Trump is doing a Brexit. ie something that makes sense in American terms, but the rest of us simply don't "get", and maybe never will?
I am merely throwing up the idea. Because, to me these tariffs look like madness - even if they are just some bluff designed to get better terms for USA Inc - they have caused hideous instability which will not be forgotten
Are we missing something?
Who is stupid enough not to get it?
The merit of tariffs is obvious. It leads to things being produced within the tariff barrier, or failing that, making a lot of tax money off imported goods.
Obviously they can be applied in a blundering or counterproductive way, but that isn't really my sense of what has happened. All I can really see is companies that have just been handed a huge bill, losing share value. Well obviously.
Of course, as a citizen of the UK, I am not pleased that we have been slapped by tariffs, and we should most certainly respond in kind. I think instinctively, I'd just whack up the digital sales tax. But we should also respond assertively to countries like India and China that have tariffs against us.
"It leads to things being produced within the tariff barrier"
The modern world isn't like that though. It is a complex web of supply chains.
True. And one of the biggest factors against the success of the experiment is the probability that the Democrats will reverse the policy. But I still think they might see some production return. Obviously those announcements won't happen the day after - it would be loony for the likes of Nike to endorse tariffs against them that way.
My view is still that - assuming the Constitutional Republic continues to exist - it will really need a bout of constutional reform as happened in the 1860s after the Civil War, and the 1950s-1960s (ish) to deal with some of the flaws that have come to light. But that depends on election results.
I'd be wanting the Presidential Pardon abolished, for one thing, and replaced with something to be used about 99.8% less. I have no idea how that would work in the USA system, but it's one channel of major corruption that needs to go.
This site is (understandably) united in condemning this Tarrify Trumpsterfuck
Perhaps someone needs to raise a counter-argument. Why? Because I recall a similar chorus of scorn and disdain from non-Brits when we voted for Brexit. And nearly all of these opinions were spectacularly ill-informed, eg I would hear liberal Americans saying "why the fuck have you cut yourself off from your major market" and when I pointed out to them the huge democratic flaws in the EU they not only didn't understand, they didn't even have the first idea. "What, your supreme court sits in a different country, and speaks a different language, and you don't vote for the people that make the laws??!
etc etc ETC
So is it possible Trump is doing a Brexit. ie something that makes sense in American terms, but the rest of us simply don't "get", and maybe never will?
I am merely throwing up the idea. Because, to me these tariffs look like madness - even if they are just some bluff designed to get better terms for USA Inc - they have caused hideous instability which will not be forgotten
Are we missing something?
A lot of Americans don't have much to lose. The only semblance of self-worth they have is found in the ability of their country to fuck other countries up. That also goes for screwing rich people with lots of stocks. The reaction to Luigi - the murder of a CEO on behalf of millions of Americans with terrible health problems and/or medical debt - was a symptom of this.
Ultimately, it comes down to inequality. For many, this is inextricably linked to globalisation. No one has found a way or demonstrated a willingness to share the proceeds of free trade among the larger population. That leaves you with only one option: level down.
This site is (understandably) united in condemning this Tarrify Trumpsterfuck
Perhaps someone needs to raise a counter-argument. Why? Because I recall a similar chorus of scorn and disdain from non-Brits when we voted for Brexit. And nearly all of these opinions were spectacularly ill-informed, eg I would hear liberal Americans saying "why the fuck have you cut yourself off from your major market" and when I pointed out to them the huge democratic flaws in the EU they not only didn't understand, they didn't even have the first idea. "What, your supreme court sits in a different country, and speaks a different language, and you don't vote for the people that make the laws??!
etc etc ETC
So is it possible Trump is doing a Brexit. ie something that makes sense in American terms, but the rest of us simply don't "get", and maybe never will?
I am merely throwing up the idea. Because, to me these tariffs look like madness - even if they are just some bluff designed to get better terms for USA Inc - they have caused hideous instability which will not be forgotten
Are we missing something?
Who is stupid enough not to get it?
The merit of tariffs is obvious. It leads to things being produced within the tariff barrier, or failing that, making a lot of tax money off imported goods.
Obviously they can be applied in a blundering or counterproductive way, but that isn't really my sense of what has happened. All I can really see is companies that have just been handed a huge bill, losing share value. Well obviously.
Of course, as a citizen of the UK, I am not pleased that we have been slapped by tariffs, and we should most certainly respond in kind. I think instinctively, I'd just whack up the digital sales tax. But we should also respond assertively to countries like India and China that have tariffs against us.
"It leads to things being produced within the tariff barrier"
The modern world isn't like that though. It is a complex web of supply chains.
True. And one of the biggest factors against the success of the experiment is the probability that the Democrats will reverse the policy. But I still think they might see some production return. Obviously those announcements won't happen the day after - it would be loony for the likes of Nike to endorse tariffs against them that way.
My view is still that - assuming the Constitutional Republic continues to exist - it will really need a bout of constutional reform as happened in the 1860s after the Civil War, and the 1950s-1960s (ish) to deal with some of the flaws that have come to light. But that depends on election results.
I'd be wanting the Presidential Pardon abolished, for one thing, and replaced with something to be used about 99.8% less. I have no idea how that would work in the USA system, but it's one channel of major corruption that needs to go.
But it's far too early to tell.
Stop electing judges would help too.
Would it ?
In the UK they're appointed by the Lord Chancellor. So the US equivalent would be appointments by Pam Bondi right now. I think.
This site is (understandably) united in condemning this Tarrify Trumpsterfuck
Perhaps someone needs to raise a counter-argument. Why? Because I recall a similar chorus of scorn and disdain from non-Brits when we voted for Brexit. And nearly all of these opinions were spectacularly ill-informed, eg I would hear liberal Americans saying "why the fuck have you cut yourself off from your major market" and when I pointed out to them the huge democratic flaws in the EU they not only didn't understand, they didn't even have the first idea. "What, your supreme court sits in a different country, and speaks a different language, and you don't vote for the people that make the laws??!
etc etc ETC
So is it possible Trump is doing a Brexit. ie something that makes sense in American terms, but the rest of us simply don't "get", and maybe never will?
I am merely throwing up the idea. Because, to me these tariffs look like madness - even if they are just some bluff designed to get better terms for USA Inc - they have caused hideous instability which will not be forgotten
Are we missing something?
The world will adjust. The issue is how long that will take, how much pain there will be in the meantime and whether it is worth it. Trump and his cohorts have a deep seated conviction about the absolute power of the US to dictate to the rest of the world and that the world will fall into line. So, all this makes total sense to them as they believe the US will withstand and in the end it will lead to a lower deficit, lower taxes and a stronger American economy. Whether they are right or entirely deluded is what is now in play.
Contrarianism to test if there might be in something after all is worth doing, but with Trump there's always been a lot of 'there must be some secret sense behind X' which has been wishful thinking, when often the simpler explanation makes more sense. Even if Trump is somehow right on this one for the long term there'll be plenty of pain for them and the rest of us in the meantime.
I don't think he is right. I don't think the US is big enough to dictate to the world. I think he has the world view of a New York property developer and that while his tactics may work there, the global economy is a whole lot more nuanced and complex than that. The US is 13% of it. That's big but it can be worked around.
Trump is a bully who thinks he can bully the rest of the world. The rest of the world, including the UK, need to work together, and either stand up to him or ignore him. Isolate the fool, and his country of fools.
This site is (understandably) united in condemning this Tarrify Trumpsterfuck
Perhaps someone needs to raise a counter-argument. Why? Because I recall a similar chorus of scorn and disdain from non-Brits when we voted for Brexit. And nearly all of these opinions were spectacularly ill-informed, eg I would hear liberal Americans saying "why the fuck have you cut yourself off from your major market" and when I pointed out to them the huge democratic flaws in the EU they not only didn't understand, they didn't even have the first idea. "What, your supreme court sits in a different country, and speaks a different language, and you don't vote for the people that make the laws??!
etc etc ETC
So is it possible Trump is doing a Brexit. ie something that makes sense in American terms, but the rest of us simply don't "get", and maybe never will?
I am merely throwing up the idea. Because, to me these tariffs look like madness - even if they are just some bluff designed to get better terms for USA Inc - they have caused hideous instability which will not be forgotten
Are we missing something?
We are expected to believe US balance of trade = 0 is his version of fair, but.
I’m tempted** to see DT and his entourage leading a putative retreat from Glasnost and Perestroika. They can see that the neoliberal economics in the diet is causing an unhappy moment / movement and they want to purge expectation and gorge on desperation and despair.
I’m appalled, but kind of okay with it too. Apart from Taylor Swift and Bruce Springsteen, their products ain’t great* and there isn’t anything I particularly want to sell to them. ( wind turbines and apple pie? )
*I’m counting iPhone as Chinese. **I don’t even know if I’m serious. Maybe.
This site is (understandably) united in condemning this Tarrify Trumpsterfuck
Perhaps someone needs to raise a counter-argument. Why? Because I recall a similar chorus of scorn and disdain from non-Brits when we voted for Brexit. And nearly all of these opinions were spectacularly ill-informed, eg I would hear liberal Americans saying "why the fuck have you cut yourself off from your major market" and when I pointed out to them the huge democratic flaws in the EU they not only didn't understand, they didn't even have the first idea. "What, your supreme court sits in a different country, and speaks a different language, and you don't vote for the people that make the laws??!
etc etc ETC
So is it possible Trump is doing a Brexit. ie something that makes sense in American terms, but the rest of us simply don't "get", and maybe never will?
I am merely throwing up the idea. Because, to me these tariffs look like madness - even if they are just some bluff designed to get better terms for USA Inc - they have caused hideous instability which will not be forgotten
Are we missing something?
Hard to see how it could be wise. Nobody understands economics though, so hard to be sure.
Try
That's my point
Have a go
We're having a collective and almighty go at Trumpism - doesn't matter at all what I think, we're going to see.
Its very interesting about 1930s Samarkand and Bokhara.
I am reading it right now! Also Hopkirk's The Great Game
Sadly it doesn't quite match up to Simon Sebag Montefiore's effusive foreword. It is pretty good, it's certainly interesting because I am here - the trouble is the Moscow-based stuff on the Stalinist show trials is genuinely compelling but the travel stuff - which is the bulk of the book - is a little ho-hum. He didn't really do much, in Central Asia?
However, I am only about halfway through, so maybe it will pick up
He did a lot in Yugoslavia and in the SAS. Then became a Tory MP.
This site is (understandably) united in condemning this Tarrify Trumpsterfuck
Perhaps someone needs to raise a counter-argument. Why? Because I recall a similar chorus of scorn and disdain from non-Brits when we voted for Brexit. And nearly all of these opinions were spectacularly ill-informed, eg I would hear liberal Americans saying "why the fuck have you cut yourself off from your major market" and when I pointed out to them the huge democratic flaws in the EU they not only didn't understand, they didn't even have the first idea. "What, your supreme court sits in a different country, and speaks a different language, and you don't vote for the people that make the laws??!
etc etc ETC
So is it possible Trump is doing a Brexit. ie something that makes sense in American terms, but the rest of us simply don't "get", and maybe never will?
I am merely throwing up the idea. Because, to me these tariffs look like madness - even if they are just some bluff designed to get better terms for USA Inc - they have caused hideous instability which will not be forgotten
Are we missing something?
The world will adjust. The issue is how long that will take, how much pain there will be in the meantime and whether it is worth it. Trump and his cohorts have a deep seated conviction about the absolute power of the US to dictate to the rest of the world and that the world will fall into line. So, all this makes total sense to them as they believe the US will withstand and in the end it will lead to a lower deficit, lower taxes and a stronger American economy. Whether they are right or entirely deluded is what is now in play.
This is a point so often overlooked. The want to remake America and remake the rest of the World in its image. The first is an open question. It's entirely possible. The second. Well, they fundamentally don't understand they don't have consent. But that doesn't compute or bother them.
This site is (understandably) united in condemning this Tarrify Trumpsterfuck
Perhaps someone needs to raise a counter-argument. Why? Because I recall a similar chorus of scorn and disdain from non-Brits when we voted for Brexit. And nearly all of these opinions were spectacularly ill-informed, eg I would hear liberal Americans saying "why the fuck have you cut yourself off from your major market" and when I pointed out to them the huge democratic flaws in the EU they not only didn't understand, they didn't even have the first idea. "What, your supreme court sits in a different country, and speaks a different language, and you don't vote for the people that make the laws??!
etc etc ETC
So is it possible Trump is doing a Brexit. ie something that makes sense in American terms, but the rest of us simply don't "get", and maybe never will?
I am merely throwing up the idea. Because, to me these tariffs look like madness - even if they are just some bluff designed to get better terms for USA Inc - they have caused hideous instability which will not be forgotten
Are we missing something?
Hard to see how it could be wise. Nobody understands economics though, so hard to be sure.
Try
That's my point
Have a go
We're having a collective and almighty go at Trumpism - doesn't matter at all what I think, we're going to see.
Its very interesting about 1930s Samarkand and Bokhara.
I am reading it right now! Also Hopkirk's The Great Game
Sadly it doesn't quite match up to Simon Sebag Montefiore's effusive foreword. It is pretty good, it's certainly interesting because I am here - the trouble is the Moscow-based stuff on the Stalinist show trials is genuinely compelling but the travel stuff - which is the bulk of the book - is a little ho-hum. He didn't really do much, in Central Asia?
However, I am only about halfway through, so maybe it will pick up
He did a lot in Yugoslavia and in the SAS. Then became a Tory MP.
Apparently, he was the inspiration behind the character of James Bond.
Hospital leukemia checkup - saw the Consultant I lsat saw in 2023 when I was in hospital being de-absessed with surgery not applicable due to diabetic the healing times. He was the one who put me on a two week course of antibiotic infusions taking a couple of hours to drip in at 6am, 2pm and 10pm.
"You are back to normal" (that is, by the blood markers).
Bugger - I'm am now plumb out of excuses.
They can do wonderful things against leukemia these days. My cousin was diagnosed about six years ago (after living in Russia for many years, however much or little that might mean), and a doctor friend said that twenty years ago, that would have been that. But she's now as cured as you can be thanks to new drugs that were experimental a decade ago.
All the best with your continuing recovery anyway.
'A Reform UK candidate has been suspended from the party after posts on social media revealed his support for serial sex abuser Jimmy Savile.
Stephen Hartley was listed as standing for Reform UK in the Banbury Hardwick ward, ahead of local elections to Oxfordshire County Council on 1 May.
In an interview with the BBC, Mr Hartley confirmed he posted in 2022 that Savile was a "working class hero" and said that he may have "forgotten" to disclose his X account to Reform UK.'
'A Reform UK candidate has been suspended from the party after posts on social media revealed his support for serial sex abuser Jimmy Savile.
Stephen Hartley was listed as standing for Reform UK in the Banbury Hardwick ward, ahead of local elections to Oxfordshire County Council on 1 May.
In an interview with the BBC, Mr Hartley confirmed he posted in 2022 that Savile was a "working class hero" and said that he may have "forgotten" to disclose his X account to Reform UK.'
This site is (understandably) united in condemning this Tarrify Trumpsterfuck
Perhaps someone needs to raise a counter-argument. Why? Because I recall a similar chorus of scorn and disdain from non-Brits when we voted for Brexit. And nearly all of these opinions were spectacularly ill-informed, eg I would hear liberal Americans saying "why the fuck have you cut yourself off from your major market" and when I pointed out to them the huge democratic flaws in the EU they not only didn't understand, they didn't even have the first idea. "What, your supreme court sits in a different country, and speaks a different language, and you don't vote for the people that make the laws??!
etc etc ETC
So is it possible Trump is doing a Brexit. ie something that makes sense in American terms, but the rest of us simply don't "get", and maybe never will?
I am merely throwing up the idea. Because, to me these tariffs look like madness - even if they are just some bluff designed to get better terms for USA Inc - they have caused hideous instability which will not be forgotten
Are we missing something?
Hard to see how it could be wise. Nobody understands economics though, so hard to be sure.
Try
That's my point
Have a go
The US runs a trade deficit.
Trump wants to reduce the trade deficit.
This is not stupid. The US has - for some time - lived beyond its means.
It is not entirely stupid to use tariffs as a one of the ways of achieving this, because they act as a sales tax, increasing the price of goods, and therefore reducing demand for them. (Because spending is price elastic. The more something costs, the less you buy of it.)
However, the way the US government is going about it is fundamentally stupid.
Firstly, there is the focus on bilateral trade balances, which is (to put it generously) misguided. See my video from earlier for a primer on it.
Secondly, if you want the tariffs to be a bargaining chip to get others to reduce their tariffs (and non tariff barriers), then you need to be seen as a reliable partner who keeps their word. The focus on Canada (which only runs a trade surplus with the US because of the Keystone pipeline that Trump actively supported) and on fentanyl from there (which is non-existent) makes it hard for others to negotiate with the US.
Thirdly, a major issue is that Americans save too little, and spend too much! (See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2pKS2TCd_3c) If you want to fundamentally change the trade deficit, you need to increase US household savings rates. (The tariffs will do this, but not in a particularly efficient way.)
Fourth, by constantly flip flopping, you discourage American businesses from investing in domestic production. Why build a factory to make hats, if the US government is likely to cut hat tariffs in a year?
The right way forward for the US is a combination of:
(1) Encouraging the Europeans and the Chinese to consume more! They oversave, and that's a problem. But imposing tariffs on these countries will make the problem worse, not better.
(2) Tax incentives and cheap financing for people to build US manufacturing facilities.
(3) Changing individual incentives to increase household savings rates and discourage consumer debt.
That's how you rebalance the US economy, and you do it without pissing everyone off.
Why would you assume that Trump wants to use tariffs as a bargaining chip to get others to lower theirs when he has been very consistent in talking about using tariff revenue over the long term to fund the federal government? If he's constantly flip flopping, it's in order to reach a new normal with as little disruption as possible, not because he wants to abandon the policy.
Hospital leukemia checkup - saw the Consultant I lsat saw in 2023 when I was in hospital being de-absessed with surgery not applicable due to diabetic the healing times. He was the one who put me on a two week course of antibiotic infusions taking a couple of hours to drip in at 6am, 2pm and 10pm.
"You are back to normal" (that is, by the blood markers).
The so called better than expected job numbers in the USA are hiding over 250,000 job losses .
This is because the data is compiled up to the middle of the last month . Also workers on severance or paid leave are counted as employed .
Moving forward the reliability of any data depends on whether we see the Bureau of Labor Statistics free from the interference of DOGE and whether Trump fires the current head which was a Biden appointee .
This site is (understandably) united in condemning this Tarrify Trumpsterfuck
Perhaps someone needs to raise a counter-argument. Why? Because I recall a similar chorus of scorn and disdain from non-Brits when we voted for Brexit. And nearly all of these opinions were spectacularly ill-informed, eg I would hear liberal Americans saying "why the fuck have you cut yourself off from your major market" and when I pointed out to them the huge democratic flaws in the EU they not only didn't understand, they didn't even have the first idea. "What, your supreme court sits in a different country, and speaks a different language, and you don't vote for the people that make the laws??!
etc etc ETC
So is it possible Trump is doing a Brexit. ie something that makes sense in American terms, but the rest of us simply don't "get", and maybe never will?
I am merely throwing up the idea. Because, to me these tariffs look like madness - even if they are just some bluff designed to get better terms for USA Inc - they have caused hideous instability which will not be forgotten
Are we missing something?
Hard to see how it could be wise. Nobody understands economics though, so hard to be sure.
Try
That's my point
Have a go
We're having a collective and almighty go at Trumpism - doesn't matter at all what I think, we're going to see.
This site is (understandably) united in condemning this Tarrify Trumpsterfuck
Perhaps someone needs to raise a counter-argument. Why? Because I recall a similar chorus of scorn and disdain from non-Brits when we voted for Brexit. And nearly all of these opinions were spectacularly ill-informed, eg I would hear liberal Americans saying "why the fuck have you cut yourself off from your major market" and when I pointed out to them the huge democratic flaws in the EU they not only didn't understand, they didn't even have the first idea. "What, your supreme court sits in a different country, and speaks a different language, and you don't vote for the people that make the laws??!
etc etc ETC
So is it possible Trump is doing a Brexit. ie something that makes sense in American terms, but the rest of us simply don't "get", and maybe never will?
I am merely throwing up the idea. Because, to me these tariffs look like madness - even if they are just some bluff designed to get better terms for USA Inc - they have caused hideous instability which will not be forgotten
Are we missing something?
Hard to see how it could be wise. Nobody understands economics though, so hard to be sure.
Try
That's my point
Have a go
We're having a collective and almighty go at Trumpism - doesn't matter at all what I think, we're going to see.
Its very interesting about 1930s Samarkand and Bokhara.
I am reading it right now! Also Hopkirk's The Great Game
Sadly it doesn't quite match up to Simon Sebag Montefiore's effusive foreword. It is pretty good, it's certainly interesting because I am here - the trouble is the Moscow-based stuff on the Stalinist show trials is genuinely compelling but the travel stuff - which is the bulk of the book - is a little ho-hum. He didn't really do much, in Central Asia?
However, I am only about halfway through, so maybe it will pick up
You will see why I suggested you should throw yourself into the back of a moving truck soon.
Rory Stewart clearly loves Fitzroy. I like that about him.
Hospital leukemia checkup - saw the Consultant I lsat saw in 2023 when I was in hospital being de-absessed with surgery not applicable due to diabetic the healing times. He was the one who put me on a two week course of antibiotic infusions taking a couple of hours to drip in at 6am, 2pm and 10pm.
"You are back to normal" (that is, by the blood markers).
Bugger - I'm am now plumb out of excuses.
They can do wonderful things against leukemia these days. My cousin was diagnosed about six years ago (after living in Russia for many years, however much or little that might mean), and a doctor friend said that twenty years ago, that would have been that. But she's now as cured as you can be thanks to new drugs that were experimental a decade ago.
All the best with your continuing recovery anyway.
"But she's now as cured as you can be thanks to new drugs that were experimental a decade ago."
Absolutely. The financial damage of Trumpski will be off the scale but the actual physical harm of RFK running Health will be worse.
Several other PB Trump supporters appear to have gone into hiding.
Yes, TBF, kudos to William for sticking his head above the parapet.
But he's behind an irony shield. Then we have Topping using it to troll "the left". And of course Leon doing a mix of these plus seeking to stand out as 'free thinking'. All in all nobody is doing it (Trump support) straight. Perhaps that Moonshine poster would give it a crack if he were here. Been a while.
Look, I'm not pretending I don't think he spouts nonsense most of the time. But which of us can claim we don't at least occasionally do the same ?
It's up to the mods to decide whether he's just a troll. Which, while he often trolls, I don't think he is entirely.
And it does provide an interactive viewpoint from the orange side.
Hospital leukemia checkup - saw the Consultant I lsat saw in 2023 when I was in hospital being de-absessed with surgery not applicable due to diabetic the healing times. He was the one who put me on a two week course of antibiotic infusions taking a couple of hours to drip in at 6am, 2pm and 10pm.
"You are back to normal" (that is, by the blood markers).
Bugger - I'm am now plumb out of excuses.
Fantastic news.
Apparently the Hairy Bone Marrow cells * are down to a whisker - under 1%, so it should be a few years before it comes out of remission significantly.
* Not quite right - it's the blood cells that go 'Hairy', but it's near enough.
Hairy cell leukemia (HCL) is a rare, slow-growing type of blood cancer that affects white blood cells called B lymphocytes, characterized by abnormal B cells with hair-like projections under a microscope. (Me: the docs characterise slow-growing as "indolent").
My photo quota: Hairy Cells. There like one of those things you use to wash your window.
I send you every good wish over your health issues
I have experienced life threatening health issues over the last 18 months, and just grateful my haematologist, cardiologist and vascular surgeon have all signed me off in the last 3 weeks until next year
Cheers.
The next step is to continue improving the exercise, and lose a bit of weight.
The initial target is 5000-6000 steps per day, or an equivalent cycle trip. That's on track so far, so we'll see.
I may need lots of energy to dig up some wheelchair blocking horse-styles off our bridleways , once persuasion has been worked on the County Council.
People like Hegseth, Kennedy, and Gabbard are buffoons.
But, trying to understand the world outlook of intelligent MAGA’s like Vance, I think it’s like this.
Like Marxists, they see international power relations as about Who (rules) Whom. Every transaction has a winner and a loser. Gains for the USA mean losses for weaker nations, and gains for weaker nations mean losses for the USA.
In their eyes, the USA became great by enforcing its will upon weaker powers (Mexico, Spain, Hawaii, Indian nations). And, there is plainly truth in that.
As they see it, the rest of the world just sponges off the USA, and now it’s time to show them who’s boss.
This site is (understandably) united in condemning this Tarrify Trumpsterfuck
Perhaps someone needs to raise a counter-argument. Why? Because I recall a similar chorus of scorn and disdain from non-Brits when we voted for Brexit. And nearly all of these opinions were spectacularly ill-informed, eg I would hear liberal Americans saying "why the fuck have you cut yourself off from your major market" and when I pointed out to them the huge democratic flaws in the EU they not only didn't understand, they didn't even have the first idea. "What, your supreme court sits in a different country, and speaks a different language, and you don't vote for the people that make the laws??!
etc etc ETC
So is it possible Trump is doing a Brexit. ie something that makes sense in American terms, but the rest of us simply don't "get", and maybe never will?
I am merely throwing up the idea. Because, to me these tariffs look like madness - even if they are just some bluff designed to get better terms for USA Inc - they have caused hideous instability which will not be forgotten
Are we missing something?
Hard to see how it could be wise. Nobody understands economics though, so hard to be sure.
Try
That's my point
Have a go
The US runs a trade deficit.
Trump wants to reduce the trade deficit.
This is not stupid. The US has - for some time - lived beyond its means.
It is not entirely stupid to use tariffs as a one of the ways of achieving this, because they act as a sales tax, increasing the price of goods, and therefore reducing demand for them. (Because spending is price elastic. The more something costs, the less you buy of it.)
However, the way the US government is going about it is fundamentally stupid.
Firstly, there is the focus on bilateral trade balances, which is (to put it generously) misguided. See my video from earlier for a primer on it.
Secondly, if you want the tariffs to be a bargaining chip to get others to reduce their tariffs (and non tariff barriers), then you need to be seen as a reliable partner who keeps their word. The focus on Canada (which only runs a trade surplus with the US because of the Keystone pipeline that Trump actively supported) and on fentanyl from there (which is non-existent) makes it hard for others to negotiate with the US.
Thirdly, a major issue is that Americans save too little, and spend too much! (See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2pKS2TCd_3c) If you want to fundamentally change the trade deficit, you need to increase US household savings rates. (The tariffs will do this, but not in a particularly efficient way.)
Fourth, by constantly flip flopping, you discourage American businesses from investing in domestic production. Why build a factory to make hats, if the US government is likely to cut hat tariffs in a year?
The right way forward for the US is a combination of:
(1) Encouraging the Europeans and the Chinese to consume more! They oversave, and that's a problem. But imposing tariffs on these countries will make the problem worse, not better.
(2) Tax incentives and cheap financing for people to build US manufacturing facilities.
(3) Changing individual incentives to increase household savings rates and discourage consumer debt.
That's how you rebalance the US economy, and you do it without pissing everyone off.
Why would you assume that Trump wants to use tariffs as a bargaining chip to get others to lower theirs when he has been very consistent in talking about using tariff revenue over the long term to fund the federal government? If he's constantly flip flopping, it's in order to reach a new normal with as little disruption as possible, not because he wants to abandon the policy.
People like Hegseth, Kennedy, and Gabbard are buffoons.
But, trying to understand the world outlook of intelligent MAGA’s like Vance, I think it’s like this.
Like Marxists, they see international power relations as about Who (rules) Whom. Every transaction has a winner and a loser. Gains for the USA mean losses for weaker nations, and gains for weaker nations mean losses for the USA.
In their eyes, the USA became great by enforcing its will upon weaker powers (Mexico, Spain, Hawaii, Indian nations). And, there is plainly truth in that.
As they see it, the rest of the world just sponges off the USA, and now it’s time to show them who’s boss.
Hospital leukemia checkup - saw the Consultant I lsat saw in 2023 when I was in hospital being de-absessed with surgery not applicable due to diabetic the healing times. He was the one who put me on a two week course of antibiotic infusions taking a couple of hours to drip in at 6am, 2pm and 10pm.
"You are back to normal" (that is, by the blood markers).
Bugger - I'm am now plumb out of excuses.
Fantastic news.
Apparently the Hairy Bone Marrow cells * are down to a whisker - under 1%, so it should be a few years before it comes out of remission significantly.
* Not quite right - it's the blood cells that go 'Hairy', but it's near enough.
Hairy cell leukemia (HCL) is a rare, slow-growing type of blood cancer that affects white blood cells called B lymphocytes, characterized by abnormal B cells with hair-like projections under a microscope. (Me: the docs characterise slow-growing as "indolent").
My photo quota: Hairy Cells. There like one of those things you use to wash your window.
I send you every good wish over your health issues
I have experienced life threatening health issues over the last 18 months, and just grateful my haematologist, cardiologist and vascular surgeon have all signed me off in the last 3 weeks until next year
Cheers.
The next step is to continue improving the exercise, and lose a bit of weight.
The initial target is 5000-6000 steps per day, or an equivalent cycle trip. That's on track so far, so we'll see.
I may need lots of energy to dig up some wheelchair blocking horse-styles off our bridleways , once persuasion has been worked on the County Council.
From a friend who was volunteered in the Sustrans accessibility audit of the National Cycle Network in 2018, when they found 16,000 inaccessible barriers in 13,000 miles of path (in England we have about 140,000 miles of public footpath, plus maybe as much again that is not designated):
The Derbyshire people I've worked with before said quite often a bit of a yank with a crowbar was all that was needed. Sometimes they turn out to be very rotten so will come off with almost no effort.
People like Hegseth, Kennedy, and Gabbard are buffoons.
But, trying to understand the world outlook of intelligent MAGA’s like Vance, I think it’s like this.
Like Marxists, they see international power relations as about Who (rules) Whom. Every transaction has a winner and a loser. Gains for the USA mean losses for weaker nations, and gains for weaker nations mean losses for the USA.
In their eyes, the USA became great by enforcing its will upon weaker powers (Mexico, Spain, Hawaii, Indian nations). And, there is plainly truth in that.
As they see it, the rest of the world just sponges off the USA, and now it’s time to show them who’s boss.
China.
It’s a sad day when I’m forced to cheer on the Chinese government. I hope they inflict maximum pain.
Hospital leukemia checkup - saw the Consultant I lsat saw in 2023 when I was in hospital being de-absessed with surgery not applicable due to diabetic the healing times. He was the one who put me on a two week course of antibiotic infusions taking a couple of hours to drip in at 6am, 2pm and 10pm.
"You are back to normal" (that is, by the blood markers).
Bugger - I'm am now plumb out of excuses.
Fantastic news.
Apparently the Hairy Bone Marrow cells * are down to a whisker - under 1%, so it should be a few years before it comes out of remission significantly.
* Not quite right - it's the blood cells that go 'Hairy', but it's near enough.
Hairy cell leukemia (HCL) is a rare, slow-growing type of blood cancer that affects white blood cells called B lymphocytes, characterized by abnormal B cells with hair-like projections under a microscope. (Me: the docs characterise slow-growing as "indolent").
My photo quota: Hairy Cells. There like one of those things you use to wash your window.
I send you every good wish over your health issues
I have experienced life threatening health issues over the last 18 months, and just grateful my haematologist, cardiologist and vascular surgeon have all signed me off in the last 3 weeks until next year
Cheers.
The next step is to continue improving the exercise, and lose a bit of weight.
The initial target is 5000-6000 steps per day, or an equivalent cycle trip. That's on track so far, so we'll see.
I may need lots of energy to dig up some wheelchair blocking horse-styles off our bridleways , once persuasion has been worked on the County Council.
I've averaged 12,000 steps each day this week. Beautiful walks through Scottish hillsides and London parks in spectacular weather.
But not so sure it was appreciated by my knees though.
Irrespective of how much financial damage to individual people there's also what I would term financial scarring.
By this imagine if your financial assets fell by $20k for a couple of years and then recovered.
You might be back to where you started but the mental pain and fear that it could happen again might take much longer to disappear.
That’s your risk when you invest though - you can’t guarantee you won’t have losses from time to time.
Of course this has always been predicated on the market rising over the long term. If we were ever to hit a depression and an extended period of market stagnation/little growth, then this would be the killer.
People like Hegseth, Kennedy, and Gabbard are buffoons.
But, trying to understand the world outlook of intelligent MAGA’s like Vance, I think it’s like this.
Like Marxists, they see international power relations as about Who (rules) Whom. Every transaction has a winner and a loser. Gains for the USA mean losses for weaker nations, and gains for weaker nations mean losses for the USA.
In their eyes, the USA became great by enforcing its will upon weaker powers (Mexico, Spain, Hawaii, Indian nations). And, there is plainly truth in that.
As they see it, the rest of the world just sponges off the USA, and now it’s time to show them who’s boss.
That's a good analysis. I'd also venture that there is genuinely an argument that the amount of cheap needless Chinese crap that America (and not just America, I cam see a ton of it from where I'm sitting) consumes is doing the American economy harm. How do you stop this? Bluntly, tarriffs. They are as much a weapon against Americam consumers than against foreign economies.
This site is (understandably) united in condemning this Tarrify Trumpsterfuck
Perhaps someone needs to raise a counter-argument. Why? Because I recall a similar chorus of scorn and disdain from non-Brits when we voted for Brexit. And nearly all of these opinions were spectacularly ill-informed, eg I would hear liberal Americans saying "why the fuck have you cut yourself off from your major market" and when I pointed out to them the huge democratic flaws in the EU they not only didn't understand, they didn't even have the first idea. "What, your supreme court sits in a different country, and speaks a different language, and you don't vote for the people that make the laws??!
etc etc ETC
So is it possible Trump is doing a Brexit. ie something that makes sense in American terms, but the rest of us simply don't "get", and maybe never will?
I am merely throwing up the idea. Because, to me these tariffs look like madness - even if they are just some bluff designed to get better terms for USA Inc - they have caused hideous instability which will not be forgotten
Are we missing something?
Hard to see how it could be wise. Nobody understands economics though, so hard to be sure.
Try
That's my point
Have a go
The US runs a trade deficit.
Trump wants to reduce the trade deficit.
This is not stupid. The US has - for some time - lived beyond its means.
It is not entirely stupid to use tariffs as a one of the ways of achieving this, because they act as a sales tax, increasing the price of goods, and therefore reducing demand for them. (Because spending is price elastic. The more something costs, the less you buy of it.)
However, the way the US government is going about it is fundamentally stupid.
Firstly, there is the focus on bilateral trade balances, which is (to put it generously) misguided. See my video from earlier for a primer on it.
Secondly, if you want the tariffs to be a bargaining chip to get others to reduce their tariffs (and non tariff barriers), then you need to be seen as a reliable partner who keeps their word. The focus on Canada (which only runs a trade surplus with the US because of the Keystone pipeline that Trump actively supported) and on fentanyl from there (which is non-existent) makes it hard for others to negotiate with the US.
Thirdly, a major issue is that Americans save too little, and spend too much! (See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2pKS2TCd_3c) If you want to fundamentally change the trade deficit, you need to increase US household savings rates. (The tariffs will do this, but not in a particularly efficient way.)
Fourth, by constantly flip flopping, you discourage American businesses from investing in domestic production. Why build a factory to make hats, if the US government is likely to cut hat tariffs in a year?
The right way forward for the US is a combination of:
(1) Encouraging the Europeans and the Chinese to consume more! They oversave, and that's a problem. But imposing tariffs on these countries will make the problem worse, not better.
(2) Tax incentives and cheap financing for people to build US manufacturing facilities.
(3) Changing individual incentives to increase household savings rates and discourage consumer debt.
That's how you rebalance the US economy, and you do it without pissing everyone off.
Why would you assume that Trump wants to use tariffs as a bargaining chip to get others to lower theirs when he has been very consistent in talking about using tariff revenue over the long term to fund the federal government? If he's constantly flip flopping, it's in order to reach a new normal with as little disruption as possible, not because he wants to abandon the policy.
Hospital leukemia checkup - saw the Consultant I lsat saw in 2023 when I was in hospital being de-absessed with surgery not applicable due to diabetic the healing times. He was the one who put me on a two week course of antibiotic infusions taking a couple of hours to drip in at 6am, 2pm and 10pm.
"You are back to normal" (that is, by the blood markers).
Bugger - I'm am now plumb out of excuses.
Fantastic news.
Apparently the Hairy Bone Marrow cells * are down to a whisker - under 1%, so it should be a few years before it comes out of remission significantly.
* Not quite right - it's the blood cells that go 'Hairy', but it's near enough.
Hairy cell leukemia (HCL) is a rare, slow-growing type of blood cancer that affects white blood cells called B lymphocytes, characterized by abnormal B cells with hair-like projections under a microscope. (Me: the docs characterise slow-growing as "indolent").
My photo quota: Hairy Cells. There like one of those things you use to wash your window.
I send you every good wish over your health issues
I have experienced life threatening health issues over the last 18 months, and just grateful my haematologist, cardiologist and vascular surgeon have all signed me off in the last 3 weeks until next year
Cheers.
The next step is to continue improving the exercise, and lose a bit of weight.
The initial target is 5000-6000 steps per day, or an equivalent cycle trip. That's on track so far, so we'll see.
I may need lots of energy to dig up some wheelchair blocking horse-styles off our bridleways , once persuasion has been worked on the County Council.
I've averaged 12,000 steps each day this week. Beautiful walks through Scottish hillsides and London parks in spectacular weather.
But not so sure it was appreciated by my knees though.
I'm averaging 1,500 calories burnt in exercise every day this year. Today: a 32km bike ride (outside), a 2.5 km swim, and a 3-mile walk.
Due to this and carefully watching my diet, for the first time in thirty years, I am down to 80kg in weight. I wasn't sure that was possible.
Irrespective of how much financial damage to individual people there's also what I would term financial scarring.
By this imagine if your financial assets fell by $20k for a couple of years and then recovered.
You might be back to where you started but the mental pain and fear that it could happen again might take much longer to disappear.
That’s your risk when you invest though - you can’t guarantee you won’t have losses from time to time.
Of course this has always been predicated on the market rising over the long term. If we were ever to hit a depression and an extended period of market stagnation/little growth, then this would be the killer.
But its only when those losses hit that you realise how fast they can happen.
So many people will decide they need a bigger financial reserve than they previously thought.
Which in turn leads to lower discretionary spending in the short term and working longer in the medium term.
And a lingering anger towards people who put the financial markets at risk.
Hospital leukemia checkup - saw the Consultant I lsat saw in 2023 when I was in hospital being de-absessed with surgery not applicable due to diabetic the healing times. He was the one who put me on a two week course of antibiotic infusions taking a couple of hours to drip in at 6am, 2pm and 10pm.
"You are back to normal" (that is, by the blood markers).
Bugger - I'm am now plumb out of excuses.
They can do wonderful things against leukemia these days. My cousin was diagnosed about six years ago (after living in Russia for many years, however much or little that might mean), and a doctor friend said that twenty years ago, that would have been that. But she's now as cured as you can be thanks to new drugs that were experimental a decade ago.
All the best with your continuing recovery anyway.
Indeed, all the best to MattW.
In sadder news: a friend of mine lost his five-year long battle with cancer on Monday. Expected, but the news still felt like a punch in the gut.
Ugh, somebody take back control from these unelected rulers.
Prince Andrew embroils King in Chinese ‘spy’ scandal
Charles met the Duke of York to discuss his future, including plans for a investment scheme run by Yang Tengbo, an alleged spy for Beijing, a new document claims
The King secretly met the Duke of York to discuss his future including plans for a Chinese investment scheme run by an alleged Beijing spy, a new document claims on Friday.
A senior aide to Andrew said they both attended two clandestine meetings organised by Charles at Windsor Castle after the duke was ordered to cease being a working royal.
Dominic Hampshire provided a witness statement to the Special Immigration Appeals Commission (SIAC) in the case of Yang Tengbo, who was excluded from the UK on national security grounds.
He said that it “was clear that the duke’s reputation was irrecoverable” following a 2019 Newsnight interview in which he was questioned about claims by Virginia Giuffre that she was coerced into having sex with him aged 17.
The former British Army captain and intelligence officer added: “It was very clear internally within the royal household that we would have to look at options for the duke’s future away from royal duties.”
In a statement written in May last year the aide explained that over the previous six months “I have had two meetings with The Duke and His Majesty to discuss what The Duke can do moving forwards in a way that is acceptable to His Majesty.”
He added: “For both these meetings with His Majesty, despite less media interest in The Duke, we took all precautions to get in and out of Windsor Castle without being seen.”
People like Hegseth, Kennedy, and Gabbard are buffoons.
But, trying to understand the world outlook of intelligent MAGA’s like Vance, I think it’s like this.
Like Marxists, they see international power relations as about Who (rules) Whom. Every transaction has a winner and a loser. Gains for the USA mean losses for weaker nations, and gains for weaker nations mean losses for the USA.
In their eyes, the USA became great by enforcing its will upon weaker powers (Mexico, Spain, Hawaii, Indian nations). And, there is plainly truth in that.
As they see it, the rest of the world just sponges off the USA, and now it’s time to show them who’s boss.
Trying to take on the rest of the world at once isn't the wisest decision.
From yesterday. "U.S. companies cut 275,240 jobs in March, marking the highest number of layoffs since May 2020."
How many UK jobs will be cut this month by the NIEC increases?
Very few is my guess. It will primarily be passed on as reduced salaries and profits in the short term. At the bottom, wages for shelf stackers are still a bit higher than the new minimum wage, so I don't think you'll see a large increase in unemployment while that slack is still there.
Do you know how much more it costs to employ a minimum wage full time worker this week than it did last week?
This is more likely to lead to millions unemployed than Brexit ever was
If I had to come up with a policy to restrict economic growth; increasing NIECs would be fucking perfect
I tried to write a positive argument for Trump’s tariffs the other day almost as a thought experiment. Not sure it was completely persuasive but I will try and find it.
This site is (understandably) united in condemning this Tarrify Trumpsterfuck
Perhaps someone needs to raise a counter-argument. Why? Because I recall a similar chorus of scorn and disdain from non-Brits when we voted for Brexit. And nearly all of these opinions were spectacularly ill-informed, eg I would hear liberal Americans saying "why the fuck have you cut yourself off from your major market" and when I pointed out to them the huge democratic flaws in the EU they not only didn't understand, they didn't even have the first idea. "What, your supreme court sits in a different country, and speaks a different language, and you don't vote for the people that make the laws??!
etc etc ETC
So is it possible Trump is doing a Brexit. ie something that makes sense in American terms, but the rest of us simply don't "get", and maybe never will?
I am merely throwing up the idea. Because, to me these tariffs look like madness - even if they are just some bluff designed to get better terms for USA Inc - they have caused hideous instability which will not be forgotten
Are we missing something?
Is it not reasonably obvious?
Trump (or more likely those advising him) are not interested in American or world prosperity.
He/they are interested in predictable (to them) chaos from which he/they can personally profit.
FWIW I think Trump is probably stupid enough to be a true believer in these tarrifs. But behind him there is some utterly cynical money making going on, I'm sure.
ETA: I realise I haven't actually addressed your question as to whether this makes sense in American terms.
In a word, and with some understanding of economics, no. At least not economically.
Brexit was an economic disaster but had some political value (showing the country that democracy, however flawed, does actually work).
At a squint, in the far distance I can see (though it is probably just a mirage) that this might make sense to you if you are an American wanting to believe that we are not utterly beholden to the global financial system that we have created, but rather we can take decisive action to wrest back control of our economies.
Comments
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_Approaches
Its very interesting about 1930s Samarkand and Bokhara.
In the real World, the verdict is in
Trump wants to reduce the trade deficit.
This is not stupid. The US has - for some time - lived beyond its means.
It is not entirely stupid to use tariffs as a one of the ways of achieving this, because they act as a sales tax, increasing the price of goods, and therefore reducing demand for them. (Because spending is price elastic. The more something costs, the less you buy of it.)
However, the way the US government is going about it is fundamentally stupid.
Firstly, there is the focus on bilateral trade balances, which is (to put it generously) misguided. See my video from earlier for a primer on it.
Secondly, if you want the tariffs to be a bargaining chip to get others to reduce their tariffs (and non tariff barriers), then you need to be seen as a reliable partner who keeps their word. The focus on Canada (which only runs a trade surplus with the US because of the Keystone pipeline that Trump actively supported) and on fentanyl from there (which is non-existent) makes it hard for others to negotiate with the US.
Thirdly, a major issue is that Americans save too little, and spend too much! (See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2pKS2TCd_3c) If you want to fundamentally change the trade deficit, you need to increase US household savings rates. (The tariffs will do this, but not in a particularly efficient way.)
Fourth, by constantly flip flopping, you discourage American businesses from investing in domestic production. Why build a factory to make hats, if the US government is likely to cut hat tariffs in a year?
The right way forward for the US is a combination of:
(1) Encouraging the Europeans and the Chinese to consume more! They oversave, and that's a problem. But imposing tariffs on these countries will make the problem worse, not better.
(2) Tax incentives and cheap financing for people to build US manufacturing facilities.
(3) Changing individual incentives to increase household savings rates and discourage consumer debt.
That's how you rebalance the US economy, and you do it without pissing everyone off.
It starts from a simplistic vision (Truss - “I want low tax and high growth”, Trump “I want American jobs back”) and it uses blunt force tools, imposed quickly with much fanfare/shock and awe, without an understanding of the realities of the financial markets.
The people best placed to run the large information systems involved being ... guess.
There's a respectable argument for targeted tariffs intended to help the revival of US manufacturing (as a short term measure; in the longer run all they do is reduce its competitiveness) - but whacking tariffs in you raw materials suppliers is just daft.
And imposing unilateral tariffs on most of the globe is more or less insane.
The US IS no longer powerful enough to impose its will on the entire globe - even if these measures made sense, which they don't.
This isn't even Trump's usual zero sum game; it's lose/lose.
Per The Telegraph, Russian drone and missile strikes on Ukraine surged 52.5% after peace talks began—3,148 strikes in the 30 days before, 4,776 after.
https://nitter.poast.org/wartranslated/status/1908137627527627027#m
Truss now has a martyr complex and will spend the rest of her life telling anyone who will listen she was thwarted by the deep state.
If Trump is forced by the immovable object of economic reality to abandon some of this batshittery (as she was) his martyr complex will be much more dangerous given millions of die hard fans with guns
The whole thing reminds me of Thatcher's adoption of monetarism in the 1980s. A somewhat fringe economic theory. which she applied, and which drew absolute scorn from the majority of economists (and everyone else), and which led to a fairly dramatic recession and the Harrying of the North 2.0
Thatcher then went on to glory, as the greatest prime minister ever, as we all know, but was she ever vindicated in her weird economic experiment? I am not sure she was. Politically, she got lucky with 1. the Falklands, and then economically with 2. the sale of council houses - right to buy - and 3. privatisation - but as far as I know the latter two policies weren't in her original manifesto and of course the Falklands was a massive strike of "fortune"
So I am not convinced her original and unusual experiment was ever proved correct in theory and practise
NEW YORK — The U.S. stock market has now lost over $9 trillion in value since Trump’s inauguration.
https://x.com/NewsWire_US/status/1908187678312722619
Leon: "Maybe this is going to work..."
The merit of tariffs is obvious. It leads to things being produced within the tariff barrier, or failing that, making a lot of tax money off imported goods.
Obviously they can be applied in a blundering or counterproductive way, but that isn't really my sense of what has happened. All I can really see is companies that have just been handed a huge bill, losing share value. Well obviously.
Of course, as a citizen of the UK, I am not pleased that we have been slapped by tariffs, and we should most certainly respond in kind. I think instinctively, I'd just whack up the digital sales tax. But we should also respond assertively to countries like India and China that have tariffs against us.
Nero fiddled while Rome burned;
Trump golfed while world finances did
https://x.com/Number10cat/status/1908197107212648814
"Donald Trump is Liz Truss"
https://x.com/Scaramucci/status/1908090078888358025
Sadly it doesn't quite match up to Simon Sebag Montefiore's effusive foreword. It is pretty good, it's certainly interesting because I am here - the trouble is the Moscow-based stuff on the Stalinist show trials is genuinely compelling but the travel stuff - which is the bulk of the book - is a little ho-hum. He didn't really do much, in Central Asia?
However, I am only about halfway through, so maybe it will pick up
Not sure I'd want to bet on it working out in the Trumpists favour, mind...
Because he said the tariffs give the US "great negotiation power": https://www.foxnews.com/video/6370999576112
The modern world isn't like that though. It is a complex web of supply chains.
Hospital leukemia checkup - saw the Consultant I lsat saw in 2023 when I was in hospital being de-absessed with surgery not applicable due to diabetic the healing times. He was the one who put me on a two week course of antibiotic infusions taking a couple of hours to drip in at 6am, 2pm and 10pm.
"You are back to normal" (that is, by the blood markers).
Bugger - I'm am now plumb out of excuses.
If you keep flip flopping on tariffs, then who is going to invest in new US manufacturing capabilities?
He'd win a landslide for the third term.
I felt sick.
There being many millions who cannot increase their savings rate because they've got no money and don't have the skillset to increase their earnings.
And there being many million who do have money but are already heavily saving.
The number of people who could save more being relatively limited.
Similarly another economic problem is that:
There are many millions of people who need to earn more but don't have the skills.
Many millions of people who could earn more but don't need to.
And relatively few people who have both the ability and desire to earn more.
And its that smaller third group which tends to drive economic growth.
I love the 'constantly flip flopping...in order to teach a new normal with as little disruption as possible' too.
Is that really the most likely explanation for flip flopping by a politician?
It's really not so much of a shake-up, although I think it's reasonable that the markets have reacted as they have. The door is open for far worse after all.
When he says the tariffs give great negotiating power, what do you think he's talking about giving up instead of the tariffs?
But which of us can claim we don't at least occasionally do the same ?
It's up to the mods to decide whether he's just a troll.
Which, while he often trolls, I don't think he is entirely.
And it does provide an interactive viewpoint from the orange side.
More jobs ? Lower prices ? Lower taxes ? Bigger pension pots ?
And then decide how likely those were to happen.
By this imagine if your financial assets fell by $20k for a couple of years and then recovered.
You might be back to where you started but the mental pain and fear that it could happen again might take much longer to disappear.
* Not quite right - it's the blood cells that go 'Hairy', but it's near enough.
Hairy cell leukemia (HCL) is a rare, slow-growing type of blood cancer that affects white blood cells called B lymphocytes, characterized by abnormal B cells with hair-like projections under a microscope. (Me: the docs characterise slow-growing as "indolent").
My photo quota: Hairy Cells. There like one of those things you use to wash your window.
And he's said in the past that tariffs on Canada will be removed when fentanyl stops coming across the border.
So what exactly are you talking about?
What is is Trump is offering other than tariff reduction.
I have experienced life threatening health issues over the last 18 months, and just grateful my haematologist, cardiologist and vascular surgeon have all signed me off in the last 3 weeks until next year
I'd be wanting the Presidential Pardon abolished, for one thing, and replaced with something to be used about 99.8% less. I have no idea how that would work in the USA system, but it's one channel of major corruption that needs to go.
But it's far too early to tell.
Ultimately, it comes down to inequality. For many, this is inextricably linked to globalisation. No one has found a way or demonstrated a willingness to share the proceeds of free trade among the larger population. That leaves you with only one option: level down.
In the UK they're appointed by the Lord Chancellor. So the US equivalent would be appointments by Pam Bondi right now. I think.
I’ve no idea what he / MAGA want to achieve
I’m tempted** to see DT and his entourage leading a putative retreat from Glasnost and Perestroika. They can see that the neoliberal economics in the diet is causing an unhappy moment / movement and they want to purge expectation and gorge on desperation and despair.
I’m appalled, but kind of okay with it too. Apart from Taylor Swift and Bruce Springsteen, their products ain’t great* and there isn’t anything I particularly want to sell to them. ( wind turbines and apple pie? )
*I’m counting iPhone as Chinese.
**I don’t even know if I’m serious. Maybe.
The want to remake America and remake the rest of the World in its image.
The first is an open question. It's entirely possible.
The second. Well, they fundamentally don't understand they don't have consent. But that doesn't compute or bother them.
All the best with your continuing recovery anyway.
This is because the data is compiled up to the middle of the last month . Also workers on severance or paid leave are counted as employed .
Moving forward the reliability of any data depends on whether we see the Bureau of Labor Statistics free from the interference of DOGE and whether Trump fires the current head which was a Biden appointee .
Rory Stewart clearly loves Fitzroy.
I like that about him.
Absolutely. The financial damage of Trumpski will be off the scale but the actual physical harm of RFK running Health will be worse.
He’s extended the deadline for the Tik Tok sale by 75 days .
The next step is to continue improving the exercise, and lose a bit of weight.
The initial target is 5000-6000 steps per day, or an equivalent cycle trip. That's on track so far, so we'll see.
I may need lots of energy to dig up some wheelchair blocking horse-styles off our bridleways
But, trying to understand the world outlook of intelligent MAGA’s like Vance, I think it’s like this.
Like Marxists, they see international power relations as about Who (rules) Whom. Every transaction has a winner and a loser. Gains for the USA mean losses for weaker nations, and gains for weaker nations mean losses for the USA.
In their eyes, the USA became great by enforcing its will upon weaker powers (Mexico, Spain, Hawaii, Indian nations). And, there is plainly truth in that.
As they see it, the rest of the world just sponges off the USA, and now it’s time to show them who’s boss.
*an expression likely unknown to him.
The Derbyshire people I've worked with before said quite often a bit of a yank with a crowbar was all that was needed. Sometimes they turn out to be very rotten so will come off with almost no effort.
But not so sure it was appreciated by my knees though.
Of course this has always been predicated on the market rising over the long term. If we were ever to hit a depression and an extended period of market stagnation/little growth, then this would be the killer.
Fox host - waving iphone: don't drop these and make sure you have AppleCare folks.
I'd also venture that there is genuinely an argument that the amount of cheap needless Chinese crap that America (and not just America, I cam see a ton of it from where I'm sitting) consumes is doing the American economy harm. How do you stop this? Bluntly, tarriffs. They are as much a weapon against Americam consumers than against foreign economies.
Sounds like TV.
Donald knows about TV.
Let's make Loomer the new Nat Security head. She looks good on TV.
Due to this and carefully watching my diet, for the first time in thirty years, I am down to 80kg in weight. I wasn't sure that was possible.
So many people will decide they need a bigger financial reserve than they previously thought.
Which in turn leads to lower discretionary spending in the short term and working longer in the medium term.
And a lingering anger towards people who put the financial markets at risk.
In sadder news: a friend of mine lost his five-year long battle with cancer on Monday. Expected, but the news still felt like a punch in the gut.
Cancer is hideous.
Prince Andrew embroils King in Chinese ‘spy’ scandal
Charles met the Duke of York to discuss his future, including plans for a investment scheme run by Yang Tengbo, an alleged spy for Beijing, a new document claims
The King secretly met the Duke of York to discuss his future including plans for a Chinese investment scheme run by an alleged Beijing spy, a new document claims on Friday.
A senior aide to Andrew said they both attended two clandestine meetings organised by Charles at Windsor Castle after the duke was ordered to cease being a working royal.
Dominic Hampshire provided a witness statement to the Special Immigration Appeals Commission (SIAC) in the case of Yang Tengbo, who was excluded from the UK on national security grounds.
He said that it “was clear that the duke’s reputation was irrecoverable” following a 2019 Newsnight interview in which he was questioned about claims by Virginia Giuffre that she was coerced into having sex with him aged 17.
The former British Army captain and intelligence officer added: “It was very clear internally within the royal household that we would have to look at options for the duke’s future away from royal duties.”
In a statement written in May last year the aide explained that over the previous six months “I have had two meetings with The Duke and His Majesty to discuss what The Duke can do moving forwards in a way that is acceptable to His Majesty.”
He added: “For both these meetings with His Majesty, despite less media interest in The Duke, we took all precautions to get in and out of Windsor Castle without being seen.”
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/royal-family/article/prince-andrew-king-charles-china-5xsw6ndm5
This is more likely to lead to millions unemployed than Brexit ever was
If I had to come up with a policy to restrict economic growth; increasing NIECs would be fucking perfect
Trump (or more likely those advising him) are not interested in American or world prosperity.
He/they are interested in predictable (to them) chaos from which he/they can personally profit.
FWIW I think Trump is probably stupid enough to be a true believer in these tarrifs. But behind him there is some utterly cynical money making going on, I'm sure.
ETA: I realise I haven't actually addressed your question as to whether this makes sense in American terms.
In a word, and with some understanding of economics, no. At least not economically.
Brexit was an economic disaster but had some political value (showing the country that democracy, however flawed, does actually work).
At a squint, in the far distance I can see (though it is probably just a mirage) that this might make sense to you if you are an American wanting to believe that we are not utterly beholden to the global financial system that we have created, but rather we can take decisive action to wrest back control of our economies.