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Perhaps the government will not get the blame – politicalbetting.com

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  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,801



    I think it is quite clear that in the minds of a lot of voters Reform does NOT equal Trump.

    Farage's spat with Musk was probably quite helpful.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,057

    The Dow Jones is looking pretty horrendous at the moment

    The Dow Jones is looking pretty horrendous at the moment

    You ain't seen nothing yet.
    The S&P has just dropped to an 11-month low, having now fallen below the level it bottomed out at last August.
    Another 20% to go?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,155
    HYUFD said:

    Worse news for the steelworkers and tertiary workers of Scunny I would have thought. Vauxhall vans closed their doors in Luton last week after 120 years.

    Because these industries have been decimated over the decades from cheap overseas labour and Thatcher's law change which has allowed the Chinese and the Indians to own steelmaking capacity in the UK, has ensured when the doors finally close there aren't too many employees left to sack anyway. Through the 1990s and 2000s we rode the wave of exporting steel jobs to Korea, Italy, China and India and benefitted from unprecedented low inflation as a result. It is Labour's fault only by dint of incumbency.
    'Britain First' comes the Farage cry in response. As the above shows the idea free market liberal globalisation has been perfection is of course rubbish, there is a reason the likes of Trump get elected to pursue protectionism
    The USA is about to demonstrate why protectionism on stilts leads to disaster.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,525
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don't understand how reform isn't tanking totally in the polls. Reform want exactly what Trump is doing. Gut the state, cut all social services, privatise health care, tariffs and trade barriers, cut benefits.... Look where it is going for the USA. And I bet you the ones who would suffer under a reform regime are: low education, low income reform voters... it is so freaking mad. You would have to be mad to vote reform.

    Because a lot of British voters are in the same mood as the voters who just elected Trump. They want things turned upside down because the current situation isn't working for them.
    As we see across the pond, when voters vote for Populists as "things couldn't get any worse", things almost always get rapidly worse.
    A fall in the stock market doesn't constitute things getting worse, unless perhaps you own stocks using leverage.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550

    I don't understand how reform isn't tanking totally in the polls. Reform want exactly what Trump is doing. Gut the state, cut all social services, privatise health care, tariffs and trade barriers, cut benefits.... Look where it is going for the USA. And I bet you the ones who would suffer under a reform regime are: low education, low income reform voters... it is so freaking mad. You would have to be mad to vote reform.

    The only people in this country with a favourable opinion of Donald Trump are Reform supporters and it applies to about half of them. Quite a stat.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,155
    GIN1138 said:

    It’s all going a bit Liz Truss (x200) isn’t it?

    Only thing is, there's no mechanism for GOP to get rid of the Orange One, unlike the Tories and Liz...
    Yes there is.

    They can vote to impeach him. 2/3 of senate required iirc.

    There's enough impeachment material to fill Mara-a-lago twice over.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,996

    I don't understand how reform isn't tanking totally in the polls. Reform want exactly what Trump is doing. Gut the state, cut all social services, privatise health care, tariffs and trade barriers, cut benefits.... Look where it is going for the USA. And I bet you the ones who would suffer under a reform regime are: low education, low income reform voters... it is so freaking mad. You would have to be mad to vote reform.

    Because Reform is a “plague on all your houses” party...
    Is that what they're promising ?
    Doesn't sound appealing to me.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,996

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don't understand how reform isn't tanking totally in the polls. Reform want exactly what Trump is doing. Gut the state, cut all social services, privatise health care, tariffs and trade barriers, cut benefits.... Look where it is going for the USA. And I bet you the ones who would suffer under a reform regime are: low education, low income reform voters... it is so freaking mad. You would have to be mad to vote reform.

    Because a lot of British voters are in the same mood as the voters who just elected Trump. They want things turned upside down because the current situation isn't working for them.
    As we see across the pond, when voters vote for Populists as "things couldn't get any worse", things almost always get rapidly worse.
    A fall in the stock market doesn't constitute things getting worse, unless perhaps you own stocks using leverage.
    The cratering stockmarket is predicting things getting worse.
    And if the fall is large enough, will become a contributing factor.

    You are whistling in the wind.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,400
    Foxy said:
    Whoa!

    An MSP has only defected from one party to another once before, when Ash Regan left the SNP for Alba last year. (Michelle Ballantyne went from the Conservatives to Reform, but had several months sitting as an independent in between.)
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,057

    GIN1138 said:

    It’s all going a bit Liz Truss (x200) isn’t it?

    Only thing is, there's no mechanism for GOP to get rid of the Orange One, unlike the Tories and Liz...
    Yes there is.

    They can vote to impeach him. 2/3 of senate required iirc.

    There's enough impeachment material to fill Mara-a-lago twice over.
    Doesnt Mr Vance believe in the tariff shit too? He certainly believes in backing Russia over the west.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,525
    kinabalu said:

    I don't understand how reform isn't tanking totally in the polls. Reform want exactly what Trump is doing. Gut the state, cut all social services, privatise health care, tariffs and trade barriers, cut benefits.... Look where it is going for the USA. And I bet you the ones who would suffer under a reform regime are: low education, low income reform voters... it is so freaking mad. You would have to be mad to vote reform.

    The only people in this country with a favourable opinion of Donald Trump are Reform supporters and it applies to about half of them. Quite a stat.
    Realistically the closest thing we have to Trump in British politics is probably the Labour party: policies to favour workers over owners of capital, scepticism about free trade, control of borders.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,400
    GIN1138 said:

    It’s all going a bit Liz Truss (x200) isn’t it?

    Only thing is, there's no mechanism for GOP to get rid of the Orange One, unlike the Tories and Liz...
    If 20 Republican Senators want to support impeachment, they'd be rid of him.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,594
    edited April 4

    I don't understand how reform isn't tanking totally in the polls. Reform want exactly what Trump is doing. Gut the state, cut all social services, privatise health care, tariffs and trade barriers, cut benefits.... Look where it is going for the USA. And I bet you the ones who would suffer under a reform regime are: low education, low income reform voters... it is so freaking mad. You would have to be mad to vote reform.

    Reform voters are mostly like Trump voters and nationalist party voters in Europe white skilled working class or lower middle class, work in the private sector or run small businesses and not in the public sector and are not on benefits, want immigration slashed, want a war on woke and hate large global corporations. So why wouldn't they vote for Farage?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,155
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @atrupar.com‬

    Marco Rubio: "Market are crashing."

    https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3llylwzfycu2d

    Sure, blame the markets.
    We all know who the driver is.
    Siri, show me a man who sold his soul for a few months at the head of the State Department.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,525
    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1908173381457063955

    Just had a very productive call with To Lam, General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, who told me that Vietnam wants to cut their Tariffs down to ZERO if they are able to make an agreement with the U.S. I thanked him on behalf of our Country, and said I look forward to a meeting in the near future.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,155
    It gets better. If oil continues to drop then it gets below the rate at which all this shale oil/gas extraction in US that Trump wets himself about becomes not worth the candle iirc.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,057

    kinabalu said:

    I don't understand how reform isn't tanking totally in the polls. Reform want exactly what Trump is doing. Gut the state, cut all social services, privatise health care, tariffs and trade barriers, cut benefits.... Look where it is going for the USA. And I bet you the ones who would suffer under a reform regime are: low education, low income reform voters... it is so freaking mad. You would have to be mad to vote reform.

    The only people in this country with a favourable opinion of Donald Trump are Reform supporters and it applies to about half of them. Quite a stat.
    Realistically the closest thing we have to Trump in British politics is probably the Labour party: policies to favour workers over owners of capital, scepticism about free trade, control of borders.
    The closest thing we have to Trump over here are pre-schoolers hyped up after eating way too much sugar.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550
    edited April 4
    GIN1138 said:



    I think it is quite clear that in the minds of a lot of voters Reform does NOT equal Trump.

    Farage's spat with Musk was probably quite helpful.
    I think it was. Farage can only win a GE with a large slice of the general protest vote and he won't get that as a Trump tribute act. He knows this, wily unit that he is, hence we'll see him tacking 'moderate' but retaining his anti-immigration USP. If he can pull off the pivot, plus retain most of the racist vote with some artful dogwhistle, and the economy stays sluggish or worse, he's in with a big chance of becoming PM.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,163

    The Dow Jones is looking pretty horrendous at the moment

    The Dow Jones is looking pretty horrendous at the moment

    You ain't seen nothing yet.
    The S&P has just dropped to an 11-month low, having now fallen below the level it bottomed out at last August.
    Another 20% to go?
    I'm not going to predict the actions of market traders who couldn't see a trade war coming.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,400

    GIN1138 said:

    It’s all going a bit Liz Truss (x200) isn’t it?

    Only thing is, there's no mechanism for GOP to get rid of the Orange One, unlike the Tories and Liz...
    Yes there is.

    They can vote to impeach him. 2/3 of senate required iirc.

    There's enough impeachment material to fill Mara-a-lago twice over.
    Doesnt Mr Vance believe in the tariff shit too? He certainly believes in backing Russia over the west.
    It’s hard to know what Vance without Trump would be like, but the Senate can impeach him first if they so wish, then they’d get Mike Johnson as President. Get rid of him and they get Chuck Grassley, then Marco Rubio.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,657
    Oh

    @karaswisher.bsky.social‬

    Several sources tell me a passel of high profile tech and also finance leaders is making a trip to Mar-a-Lago to read Trump the riot act — um talk common sense — to him on the tariffs. Their million dollar donations to the inauguration is turning into billions in losses.

    https://bsky.app/profile/karaswisher.bsky.social/post/3llynh6uoyk2z
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,159
    The details of Baxter's new MRP poll are on this page, including an interactive constituency map.

    https://plmr.co.uk/theroadto2029/
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,057

    The Dow Jones is looking pretty horrendous at the moment

    The Dow Jones is looking pretty horrendous at the moment

    You ain't seen nothing yet.
    The S&P has just dropped to an 11-month low, having now fallen below the level it bottomed out at last August.
    Another 20% to go?
    I'm not going to predict the actions of market traders who couldn't see a trade war coming.
    Generally crashes overshoot and bounce back.

    This time the market will be trying to use the crash as pressure on the government to change direction, or at least sharply slow down.

    There is a long way to go.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,400

    kinabalu said:

    I don't understand how reform isn't tanking totally in the polls. Reform want exactly what Trump is doing. Gut the state, cut all social services, privatise health care, tariffs and trade barriers, cut benefits.... Look where it is going for the USA. And I bet you the ones who would suffer under a reform regime are: low education, low income reform voters... it is so freaking mad. You would have to be mad to vote reform.

    The only people in this country with a favourable opinion of Donald Trump are Reform supporters and it applies to about half of them. Quite a stat.
    Realistically the closest thing we have to Trump in British politics is probably the Labour party: policies to favour workers over owners of capital, scepticism about free trade, control of borders.
    No, William, you are being silly again.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,238

    Worse news for the steelworkers and tertiary workers of Scunny I would have thought. Vauxhall vans closed their doors in Luton last week after 120 years.

    Because these industries have been decimated over the decades from cheap overseas labour and Thatcher's law change which has allowed the Chinese and the Indians to own steelmaking capacity in the UK, has ensured when the doors finally close there aren't too many employees left to sack anyway. Through the 1990s and 2000s we rode the wave of exporting steel jobs to Korea, Italy, China and India and benefitted from unprecedented low inflation as a result. It is Labour's fault only by dint of incumbency.
    Are you sayig that Labour are historically the party of protectionism? I am sure that would be news to Blair and Brown.

    Given the basic market economics, the cheapness of labour and goods and the wholesale Government intervention in China and India to prop up industries financially, the only way we were ever going to compete with those countries in heavy industry in a globalised market was with protectionism.

    No, sorry that is wrong. Even with protectionism we were never going to save our heavy industries. This is the fault with globalisation. It might be good for the GDP figures and the profits of the big multinationals but it is crap for the skilled and semi skilled workers. The idea we all get wealthier from Globalisation is on a par with the myth of trickle down.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,057

    GIN1138 said:

    It’s all going a bit Liz Truss (x200) isn’t it?

    Only thing is, there's no mechanism for GOP to get rid of the Orange One, unlike the Tories and Liz...
    Yes there is.

    They can vote to impeach him. 2/3 of senate required iirc.

    There's enough impeachment material to fill Mara-a-lago twice over.
    Doesnt Mr Vance believe in the tariff shit too? He certainly believes in backing Russia over the west.
    It’s hard to know what Vance without Trump would be like, but the Senate can impeach him first if they so wish, then they’d get Mike Johnson as President. Get rid of him and they get Chuck Grassley, then Marco Rubio.
    At least Biden could have a laugh if we get down to Grassley.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,082
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Roger said:

    isam said:


    Scott_xP said:

    @lizziedearden

    Breaking: Russell Brand has been charged with the following offences:

    One count of rape
    One count of indecent assault
    One count of oral rape
    Two counts of sexual assault

    Met says the charges relate to the following alleged incidents:

    - 1999, woman raped in Bournemouth area
    - 2001, woman indecently assaulted in Westminster, London
    - 2004, woman orally raped and sexually assaulted in Westminster
    - 2004-5, woman sexually assaulted in Westminster

    https://x.com/lizziedearden/status/1908143027802996871

    Is it bad form to share this from a decade ago?


    Plenty of people were keen to be seen alongside him a decade or so ago. O'Brien also belittled one of Brand's accusers on social media




    I think it is. We've all been photographed with people who later became wrong 'uns. To share the reflected shame of someone who later sinned is not reasonable. Particularly 10 years later
    The crimes Brand is accused of took place way before Owen Jones and James O'Brien championed him, and boasting about such behaviour was part of his stand up
    Brand joking about the crime he is now accused of.

    https://www.news.com.au/entertainment/celebrity-life/xrated-joke-proves-that-russell-brand-was-always-vile/news-story/9e249bf638def9995b6325c0bf6426cd
    He probably shouldn't have boasted of being a "sexual predator".
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,657
    Oh

    @zackzwiezen.com‬

    BREAKING: Nintendo is halting Switch 2 pre-orders due to Trump tariffs. The console is still set to launch in June. But the price might increase

    https://bsky.app/profile/zackzwiezen.com/post/3llyo5plftc2b
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,155
    Scott_xP said:

    Oh

    @karaswisher.bsky.social‬

    Several sources tell me a passel of high profile tech and also finance leaders is making a trip to Mar-a-Lago to read Trump the riot act — um talk common sense — to him on the tariffs. Their million dollar donations to the inauguration is turning into billions in losses.

    https://bsky.app/profile/karaswisher.bsky.social/post/3llynh6uoyk2z

    If only anyone had any idea that this was what he was going to do.

    Maybe one of these finance "leaders" could have gone along to a rally or two where Trumpski told everyone who was listening that McKinley was his hero and guiding star and he was going to replace income tax with tariffs on foreigners and all their devilish wares.

    Repeatedly. Night after night after night.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550

    kinabalu said:

    I don't understand how reform isn't tanking totally in the polls. Reform want exactly what Trump is doing. Gut the state, cut all social services, privatise health care, tariffs and trade barriers, cut benefits.... Look where it is going for the USA. And I bet you the ones who would suffer under a reform regime are: low education, low income reform voters... it is so freaking mad. You would have to be mad to vote reform.

    The only people in this country with a favourable opinion of Donald Trump are Reform supporters and it applies to about half of them. Quite a stat.
    Realistically the closest thing we have to Trump in British politics is probably the Labour party: policies to favour workers over owners of capital, scepticism about free trade, control of borders.
    I do keep cautioning people not to look for the 'point' of Trump. There isn't one.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,155

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1908173381457063955

    Just had a very productive call with To Lam, General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, who told me that Vietnam wants to cut their Tariffs down to ZERO if they are able to make an agreement with the U.S. I thanked him on behalf of our Country, and said I look forward to a meeting in the near future.

    Trump starting to look for a way out?
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 6,214
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Roger said:

    isam said:


    Scott_xP said:

    @lizziedearden

    Breaking: Russell Brand has been charged with the following offences:

    One count of rape
    One count of indecent assault
    One count of oral rape
    Two counts of sexual assault

    Met says the charges relate to the following alleged incidents:

    - 1999, woman raped in Bournemouth area
    - 2001, woman indecently assaulted in Westminster, London
    - 2004, woman orally raped and sexually assaulted in Westminster
    - 2004-5, woman sexually assaulted in Westminster

    https://x.com/lizziedearden/status/1908143027802996871

    Is it bad form to share this from a decade ago?


    Plenty of people were keen to be seen alongside him a decade or so ago. O'Brien also belittled one of Brand's accusers on social media




    I think it is. We've all been photographed with people who later became wrong 'uns. To share the reflected shame of someone who later sinned is not reasonable. Particularly 10 years later
    The crimes Brand is accused of took place way before Owen Jones and James O'Brien championed him, and boasting about such behaviour was part of his stand up
    Brand joking about the crime he is now accused of.

    https://www.news.com.au/entertainment/celebrity-life/xrated-joke-proves-that-russell-brand-was-always-vile/news-story/9e249bf638def9995b6325c0bf6426cd
    He probably shouldn't have boasted of being a "sexual predator".
    But Roger thinks he's alright, so he must be as innocent as all the others
  • @MarqueeMark it seems awfully early to be predicting a Reform win.

    Of course, I suspect you were predicting a decade of Johnson in 2021 too.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,525

    kinabalu said:

    I don't understand how reform isn't tanking totally in the polls. Reform want exactly what Trump is doing. Gut the state, cut all social services, privatise health care, tariffs and trade barriers, cut benefits.... Look where it is going for the USA. And I bet you the ones who would suffer under a reform regime are: low education, low income reform voters... it is so freaking mad. You would have to be mad to vote reform.

    The only people in this country with a favourable opinion of Donald Trump are Reform supporters and it applies to about half of them. Quite a stat.
    Realistically the closest thing we have to Trump in British politics is probably the Labour party: policies to favour workers over owners of capital, scepticism about free trade, control of borders.
    No, William, you are being silly again.
    I know Labour have abandoned many of their beliefs in an attempt to become a neo-Thatcherite party, but their core values are as I said.

    Arguably Harold Wilson wrote the Trump playbook when he broke international law to impose import surcharges in the 1960s.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 6,214

    @MarqueeMark it seems awfully early to be predicting a Reform win.

    Of course, I suspect you were predicting a decade of Johnson in 2021 too.

    Reform peaked ages ago
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,657
    It's official...

    @lindayueh

    Nasdaq enters bear territory defined as an index which falls by 20% or more
    Tech companies rely on trade and manufacturing in China, so this sector has taken a significant knock from Trump’s 34% on Chinese goods — & China's retaliatory 34% levy on US goods

    https://x.com/lindayueh/status/1908177875213119565
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,150
    theakes said:

    3 local main type of local by elections yesterday:

    St Helens: Reform walked in over the Lib Dems who previously held the seat
    Neath: Lib Dem gain from Plaid, former not stood there for ages, ward part of Brecon constituency
    Lincoln: Lib Dem gain from Labour, former were fourth a couple of elections ago

    Total Votes cast:-

    Lib Dems: 896
    Labour 787
    Reform 777
    Con 145
    Green 87

    Any portents for May 1st, St Helens result suggest Reform will storm in at Runcorn. However its full impact may be lost as Reform unlikely to make the MOST local election gains or seats.

    The Lib Dem gain in NPT was from Labour although the other seat in the ward is held by Plaid.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,093

    boulay said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Foxy said:

    We're doomed. The sooner the AI Robot war exterminates humanity, the better.

    The tariffs were created by AI

    The war already started...
    Wait until AI decides that food production is an unneccessary waste. And closes it all down...
    They started small. Massive tariffs on Madagascar, where most of the Vanilla in the World comes from.

    Are Americans about to stop eating ice cream?
    I suspect that most Americans are eating Vanilla Ice Cream that has never seen any Vanilla tbh.
    Don't they make fake vanilla with beaver arseholes?
    No. Castoreum can be used as a food additive in the US, but you don't make vanillin from it. Most vanillin is made from wood.
    I know, but I believe that it used to be used more as a flavouring

    Whatever, I know that if I'm ever in close proximity to a beaver, I will try to sniff its backside
    I don't know whether I would advise that, but let it be noted that UK government is trying to make your dream easier: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/wild-release-and-management-of-beavers-in-england
    "Beavers, Sir - undreds of 'em!"
    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Hundreds-Beavers-Mike-Cheslik/dp/B0D7JL238L/ref=sr_1_1
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,656

    GIN1138 said:

    It’s all going a bit Liz Truss (x200) isn’t it?

    Only thing is, there's no mechanism for GOP to get rid of the Orange One, unlike the Tories and Liz...
    Yes there is.

    They can vote to impeach him. 2/3 of senate required iirc.

    There's enough impeachment material to fill Mara-a-lago twice over.
    Doesnt Mr Vance believe in the tariff shit too? He certainly believes in backing Russia over the west.
    It’s hard to know what Vance without Trump would be like, but the Senate can impeach him first if they so wish, then they’d get Mike Johnson as President. Get rid of him and they get Chuck Grassley, then Marco Rubio.
    Articles of impeachment first have to pass the House in order to be sent to the Senate IIUC. So a few more in the other place have to flip too.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,057

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1908173381457063955

    Just had a very productive call with To Lam, General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, who told me that Vietnam wants to cut their Tariffs down to ZERO if they are able to make an agreement with the U.S. I thanked him on behalf of our Country, and said I look forward to a meeting in the near future.

    The tariffs are not based on Vietnam's tariffs but the relative trade deficit.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,996
    The good news for the Republicans is that they don't have to wait for 2026 (and inevitable disappointment) for their red wave.


  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,400
    DougSeal said:

    GIN1138 said:

    It’s all going a bit Liz Truss (x200) isn’t it?

    Only thing is, there's no mechanism for GOP to get rid of the Orange One, unlike the Tories and Liz...
    Yes there is.

    They can vote to impeach him. 2/3 of senate required iirc.

    There's enough impeachment material to fill Mara-a-lago twice over.
    Doesnt Mr Vance believe in the tariff shit too? He certainly believes in backing Russia over the west.
    It’s hard to know what Vance without Trump would be like, but the Senate can impeach him first if they so wish, then they’d get Mike Johnson as President. Get rid of him and they get Chuck Grassley, then Marco Rubio.
    Articles of impeachment first have to pass the House in order to be sent to the Senate IIUC. So a few more in the other place have to flip too.
    True, buy only… 4, is it now?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,866
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    nico67 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Oh

    @lancelachlan

    MAGA farmers are furious over China’s new 34% tariffs - some say they could go bankrupt as their exports are no longer competitive.

    https://x.com/lancelachlan/status/1908143281612918993

    Apparently they’re going to be giving them financial help . Farm subsidies paid by US tax payers to alleviate Trumps moronic tariffs.
    So, Trump's copying the Argentinian model, albeit Peron rather than Milei?
    Trump is Peron, protectionist nationalism, Musk is Milei, slash the state libertarianism
    No.

    Milei is implementing a fairly conventional set of structural changes - it's just dramatic in terms of the disaster area that is the Argentine economy. It was a country where inflation was at 250% and you had economic refugees from Argentina in *Peru*.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,407

    @MarqueeMark it seems awfully early to be predicting a Reform win.

    Of course, I suspect you were predicting a decade of Johnson in 2021 too.

    Reform peaked ages ago
    I think it's known as the stone age.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,163

    GIN1138 said:

    It’s all going a bit Liz Truss (x200) isn’t it?

    Only thing is, there's no mechanism for GOP to get rid of the Orange One, unlike the Tories and Liz...
    Yes there is.

    They can vote to impeach him. 2/3 of senate required iirc.

    There's enough impeachment material to fill Mara-a-lago twice over.
    Doesnt Mr Vance believe in the tariff shit too? He certainly believes in backing Russia over the west.
    It’s hard to know what Vance without Trump would be like, but the Senate can impeach him first if they so wish, then they’d get Mike Johnson as President. Get rid of him and they get Chuck Grassley, then Marco Rubio.
    It's more likely that they'd get some other Republican that could be foisted on Vance as VP, in a similar way to how Ford became President.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,352
    edited April 4
    Omnium said:

    @MarqueeMark it seems awfully early to be predicting a Reform win.

    Of course, I suspect you were predicting a decade of Johnson in 2021 too.

    Reform peaked ages ago
    I think it's known as the stone age.
    On the latest version of the wikipedia chart Labour rolling average also looks to have peaked and gone back into decline.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,400
    Omnium said:

    @MarqueeMark it seems awfully early to be predicting a Reform win.

    Of course, I suspect you were predicting a decade of Johnson in 2021 too.

    Reform peaked ages ago
    I think it's known as the stone age.
    People in the British Isles during the Stone Age were Black, so probably not keen on some of Reform UK’s policies against Black History Month.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,407

    kinabalu said:

    I don't understand how reform isn't tanking totally in the polls. Reform want exactly what Trump is doing. Gut the state, cut all social services, privatise health care, tariffs and trade barriers, cut benefits.... Look where it is going for the USA. And I bet you the ones who would suffer under a reform regime are: low education, low income reform voters... it is so freaking mad. You would have to be mad to vote reform.

    The only people in this country with a favourable opinion of Donald Trump are Reform supporters and it applies to about half of them. Quite a stat.
    Realistically the closest thing we have to Trump in British politics is probably the Labour party: policies to favour workers over owners of capital, scepticism about free trade, control of borders.
    No, William, you are being silly again.
    I know Labour have abandoned many of their beliefs in an attempt to become a neo-Thatcherite party, but their core values are as I said.

    Arguably Harold Wilson wrote the Trump playbook when he broke international law to impose import surcharges in the 1960s.
    Few are as daft as Wilson, although Atlee did the real damage.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,440

    NEW THREAD

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,155
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I don't understand how reform isn't tanking totally in the polls. Reform want exactly what Trump is doing. Gut the state, cut all social services, privatise health care, tariffs and trade barriers, cut benefits.... Look where it is going for the USA. And I bet you the ones who would suffer under a reform regime are: low education, low income reform voters... it is so freaking mad. You would have to be mad to vote reform.

    The only people in this country with a favourable opinion of Donald Trump are Reform supporters and it applies to about half of them. Quite a stat.
    Realistically the closest thing we have to Trump in British politics is probably the Labour party: policies to favour workers over owners of capital, scepticism about free trade, control of borders.
    I do keep cautioning people not to look for the 'point' of Trump. There isn't one.
    Trump is the "point" of Trump. Nothing more. Nothing less.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,877
    HYUFD said:

    I don't understand how reform isn't tanking totally in the polls. Reform want exactly what Trump is doing. Gut the state, cut all social services, privatise health care, tariffs and trade barriers, cut benefits.... Look where it is going for the USA. And I bet you the ones who would suffer under a reform regime are: low education, low income reform voters... it is so freaking mad. You would have to be mad to vote reform.

    Reform voters are mostly like Trump voters and nationalist party voters in Europe white skilled working class or lower middle class, work in the private sector or run small businesses and not in the public sector and are not on benefits, want immigration slashed, want a war on woke and hate large global corporations. So why wouldn't they vote for Farage?
    Because there must come a point when even the most gullible people can see what a disaster such simplistic populist claptrap leads to? Have you forgotten what happened to Liz Truss already?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550
    edited April 4

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1908173381457063955

    Just had a very productive call with To Lam, General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, who told me that Vietnam wants to cut their Tariffs down to ZERO if they are able to make an agreement with the U.S. I thanked him on behalf of our Country, and said I look forward to a meeting in the near future.

    The tariffs are not based on Vietnam's tariffs but the relative trade deficit.
    Because in Trumpthink a trade deficit with a country means you are losing to them. Eg from their relatively harsh treatment we can deduce that mighty Botswana is whupping the hell out of the poor downtrodden USA.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,514
    edited April 4

    kinabalu said:

    I don't understand how reform isn't tanking totally in the polls. Reform want exactly what Trump is doing. Gut the state, cut all social services, privatise health care, tariffs and trade barriers, cut benefits.... Look where it is going for the USA. And I bet you the ones who would suffer under a reform regime are: low education, low income reform voters... it is so freaking mad. You would have to be mad to vote reform.

    The only people in this country with a favourable opinion of Donald Trump are Reform supporters and it applies to about half of them. Quite a stat.
    Realistically the closest thing we have to Trump in British politics is probably the Labour party: policies to favour workers over owners of capital, scepticism about free trade, control of borders.
    Scepticism about free trade?!

    The closest Labour have ever come to that was with the Mosely Memorandum in 1930-31 and, 45 years later, the Alternative Economic Strategy. Both were rightly given short shrift by the leadership.

    Otherwise, there was the period in late 1945 when, yes, a siege economy was considered - but only as a last resort in the event of not being able to negotiate what became the Anglo-American Loan. I don't think anyone ever saw it as being desirable!

    You'll note that the Wilson government ridiculed Maxwell's "I'm Backing Britain" even at a time when British politics was at its most dirigiste, and the Mélenchonism-lite idea of Progressive Protection didn't get much of a hearing even at the height of Corbynism.

    The reality is that Labour have been more consistently pro-free trade than even the Liberals (who wavered in the 1920s & 50s).
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,210
    Scott_xP said:

    Meanwhile, Donny actually posted a video that says "Trump is purposely crashing the stock market."

    https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1908143516233998760

    @Trinhnomics

    Burning the house to cook steak. 🥩 The amazing thing is that he thinks it is a win & so is his base.

    Golfing now to enjoy his win of crashing equities to boost bonds or to lower bond yields.

    Of course they buy this narrative. They don’t own anything. So you can’t lose if you don’t own anything or have anything of meaning to protect. Better to burn it all down so everyone is equally disillusioned.

    Wait a minute. Stalin did it. Make Russia Great Again.

    https://x.com/Trinhnomics/status/1908150665928753546

    This interesting thread on Twitter says it’s purposeful but has the rationale.

    https://x.com/tanvi_ratna/status/1907880105369845865?s=61
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 624

    GIN1138 said:

    It’s all going a bit Liz Truss (x200) isn’t it?

    Only thing is, there's no mechanism for GOP to get rid of the Orange One, unlike the Tories and Liz...
    If 20 Republican Senators want to support impeachment, they'd be rid of him.
    Replaced by who? If it’s Vance, does the world want or need that. Having Vance there is as good a reason as any to let him continue and have his ‘legacy’
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,525
    edited April 4
    .....
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