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Perhaps the government will not get the blame – politicalbetting.com
Perhaps the government will not get the blame – politicalbetting.com
In recent years the trend has been for incumbent governments to lose elections in part because of the cost of living crises and it is possible the current Labour government will join that list.
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That said, I'm not sure any of this will help the government very much in the long term. By the time of the next election, the question of who dug the hole will be secondary to the need to climb out of it.
https://x.com/maxtempers/status/1905922408378146995
Expanding on this, the British state is excellent at externalising the blame for its own behaviour.
‘Why are new builds so shoddy? Must be the greedy developers’
‘Why are energy costs so high? Must be the ravenous privatised utility companies’
‘Why are manufacturing plants shutting down? Must be the evil foreign owners’
Outcomes that are a product of bad incentive structures as a result of sweeping top-down mandates and state intervention are pinned on the private sector.
We have lived through two extraordinary events in the past few years - Covid and Ukraine - and in both the government stepped in to mitigate the issues through furlough and the energy payments. I am fairly convinced that a lot of people now think the government is able to do this any time there are negative economic outcomes. This has not been helped by the very poor coverage of what all this spending meant long term - the media were poor at questioning it; and the opposition at the time wanted more of it.
However, after the absolute rout across global markets it is pretty clear that Trump is facing a choice: walk back from this disaster or own it.
Or Reform, maybe.
I’ve had the pleasure (sic) of getting to know many politicians well over the years.
Those that impressed: Paddy Mayhew, David Trimble, Paddy Ashdown, Norman Fowler, Quintin Hogg, Micky Ancram, John Smith
Those that stood out on the other side: Cameron, Osborne, Ken Clarke, Michael Heseltine, Tony Blair.
Average import tariff applied was around 2.2% on Biden leaving office (itself possibly up from 1.3% in 2021, though not sure Wiki gives a like for like measure)
Tarriffs applied before April raised that to around 11% average.
Tarriffs now stand at 22.5% average (likely that number moves organically as trade flows reorganise to stone extent).
So, a bit above VAT sized on imported goods, and obviously state sales taxes on top.
https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/where-we-stand-fiscal-economic-and-distributional-effects-all-us-tariffs-enacted-2025-through-april
(FPT)
UK issued debit and credit cards were used to make 31.4 billion transactions in 2024 (both here and abroad) - up from 30.2 billion transactions in 2023, according to UK Finance research.
At the end of 2024 there were 163.4 million UK debit and credit cards issued, up from 159.7 million at the end of 2023. The total value of transactions on these cards was just over £1 trillion during 2024 - in line with 2023 - and split between:
Debit card spend of £797 billion - down 0.8% compared to 2023
Credit card transactions worth £249 billion - up 5.3% compared to 2023 (credit card transactions include card purchases, cash withdrawals and balance transfers)
Since 2019, the value of debit and credit card transactions made by UK cardholders has increased by 26%; however, the number of transactions made on these cards has risen by 42%. This shows a move towards a larger number of payments for a lower average value, driven by factors including:
People moving away from cash towards debit cards
The continued trend towards small businesses accepting card payments, and for cards being accepted for low value transactions
The growth of contactless payments, with it being easier to make lower value transactions using cards as well as smartphones and watches
There were 18.9 billion contactless transactions made in 2024 - a 3.4% increase compared to 2023. The average value of a contactless transaction in 2024 was £15.86 - a 1.7% rise compared to 2023. These figures include both UK issued cards and overseas cards being used within the UK.
https://retailtechinnovationhub.com/home/2025/4/1/1-trillion-worth-of-uk-card-transactions-in-2024-as-people-move-away-from-cash-and-contactless-booms
I had a black spot quite some time ago I need to take the time to look at today.
How about Europe agrees not to cancel all of their orders with US arms companies?
https://pressgazette.co.uk/media_law/dale-vince-libel-guido-fawkes/
Ken Clarke I met at the Cambridge Union, where he demonstrated an extraordinary ability to drink alcohol and smoke. He was clearly very smart. But he was like a very smart homeless person, who would never achieve his potential.
Quentin Hogg I would have loved to have met.
PIED PIPER
Apply Birmingham City Council
But yes, most of us should have suffered more than we did, which wasn't very much. But electorally, suicidal.
Is this what the decadence that precedes decline and fall looks like?
Facts have no place in his head
Crises present opportunities. Governance requires responsibility.
Handle the crisis well, you get the credit.
Handle it badly, you get the blame.
There is no "but it started in America/was a global pandemic" get out of jail free card at the next election if you mishandle the situation and the public are pissed off.
We have confirmed that the NSA director, Gen. Tim Haugh, and his deputy Wendy Noble, were fired on Thursday. Reason is unclear.
https://x.com/nakashimae/status/1907986291829952553
I can’t decide which is worse: That Laura Loomer can get the head of the NSA fired or that the president of the United States used 30 minutes of a work day to meet with Laura Loomer. He shouldn’t have the time.
https://x.com/mitchprothero/status/1908039924395151765
Before the Election many could not believe - even in informed circles - that they were getting an Erdogan, a Chavez, or an Idi Amin *, or the implications of electing a career criminal, or a party that had become a Trump Family operation, or the implications of lunatic economic policies or previous outright denial of electoral manipulation.
The same goes for Trump burning down the rule of law as it applies to him and his Government, and internationally, and his attempts politically to instrumentralise tariffs and the USA's military.
* He's not at Amin yet, imo - Judges are not yet physically in prison being beaten to a pulp.
CHORTLE.
I note only Tories on your "unimpressive" list.😂
Sky reporting Trump says Keir Starmer is very happy with US tariff treatment
Also went on to say Trump and his team are very bullish and gone off to Florida and no doubt the golf course
In response to @Cicero Trump owns this 100%
Some odd inclusions and some even odder inclusions
https://www.timeout.com/uk/news/britains-15-poshest-towns-in-2025-032425
A lot of folks want to argue for a future-world that doesn't yet exist, in which the Trump tariffs guide us to a perfect equilibrium for US growth. But the tariff plan announced yesterday does exist. We can read it. It does not make sense and is not defensible on its own terms.
https://x.com/DKThomp/status/1907918528826741171
One question that arises is whether in future allegedly libellous content could simply be deleted under the Online Safety Act. Has Nadine Dorries killed the libel industry? Won't anyone think of the lawyers?
The question in the header isn't particularly useful, tbh. A better one would be to find out who people will blame most for a rise in prices. For water and energy, I sense that most of the anger is still directed at the private companies rather than the regulator/government - which I disagree with personally. In a market with natural monopolies, it's incumbent on the government to regulate it properly.
Who on earth other than Trump thinks Starmer is happy to see tariffs slapped on UK exports to the US?
Hmmm - Rule of Law vs 'censorship'.
It is interesting to see that the long-running EU case against Twitter for failing to manage their platform in accordance with the law is coming to a head. This, if I have it right, dates back to Spring 2023:
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_23_6709
I don't think the UK has an effective regulator for this type of platform - the TRobinsonNewEra account on Twitter still has the 'documentary' for which Tommy Robinson got himself locked up for publishing as its pinned tweet, with Twitter publishing it to the UK jurisdiction.
On a separate note Twitter has been lax for a very long time on addressing child abuse images:
https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/elon-musk-twitter-child-exploitation-b2235416.html
That's eaving aside Musk's attempts to interfere in European politics, when his party has been whinging about a few campaigners going across from the UK - with has been SOP both ways for half a century.
Personally, I think stronger regulation is indicated. Musk & Co may be treated as being above the law in the USA; I think it is one of the lines European countries need to hold - as is eg the authority of the International Criminal Court which is also under attack.
I also don't think he's going to win the economics prize either
For some reason it's been colonised by emigrés from Islington, presumably because it's got a couple of private schools and a train line to London.
PS What are the Bamford's food businesses - are they part of the JCB empire?
Unless there is intervention of some unpredictable sort (act of God, military, civil opposition), the remaining question is over the degree to which the rule of law and constitution is thrown over.
Is this the first one Guido has lost? It seems to be a breach in his "offshoring to avoid liability" fortress. The last time I heard I think his company was incorporated in the Caribbean somewhere, where anyone suing for defamation had to stump up £10k up front.
If that is the setup, then Dale Vince can afford it.
It's quite interesting that Richard Tice is also involved, and that Dale Vince - against whom Guido made accusations in relation to commentary around Gaza - is framing it as around 'freedom of speech without being defamed by the Right' question.
Edit.
That people are not in fact "rational actors who will maximise profit" explains why markets were so blindsided by Trump doing exactly what he's been saying he'll do for months.
There is far too much emphasis on 'protecting the poor' at the expense of the average person.
Its often said that the only two certainties in life are death and taxes.
Well they're wrong, there's another, the poor.
No matter how much money is given to them, no matter how many freebies are donated to them, no matter how many opportunities are created for them the poor keep on increasing in numbers.
Here are the next generation of 'the poor':
More than half a million young people who are not working or studying have never had a job, an analysis has found.
Most of those not in education, employment or training (Neet) are also not looking for a job and an increasing number report sickness as the main reason.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/young-people-work-training-benefits-fgdg998tk
After them will follow most of the SEND kids currently bankrupting local councils.
Am I right a 10% tariff will be on the wholesale cost as delivered to the USA border, which would be on perhaps half of the retail, so an approx. 5% loading on retail price?
Is the tariff also on the delivery charge?
Anthony Wills runs the Kilchoman distillery on the island of Islay and says he feels "deflated" at the prospect of tariffs. "It's a huge blow for the industry," he says.
"For us personally, it represents 10% of our sales. So it's clearly going to be a big blow, especially with the current economic headwinds that we're all experiencing, we're all going to find this very difficult and very challenging."
The industry has been hit with US tariffs before, with a 25% levy on single malts back in 2019. The Scottish Whisky Association estimates that for the 18 months the tariffs were in place, the industry lost £600m in sales.
Mr Wills says he split the cost of the tariff with his US importer so the price would stay the same for their American customers.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq80vyyln40o
What is your remedy? A cull.
I agree too many people are reliant on benefits, and that is a culture that needs to be changed, but until that culture is changed, morality suggests we can't let these people starve. That is one of my issues over the cruelty of "Austerity 2.0".
A better headline would be “pleasant towns it’s worth visiting”.
If - and it's a big if - these tariffs stay in place for the rest of Trump's term (?), it will interesting to see if we start to export more as a result of this relatively advantageous position, and whether the mad formula is dynamic and picks up this change and applies it to the tariff charged on UK goods.
?
Its not about being unsympathetic or that people would not struggle, its how many would and how much, and arguments over whether some woukd have struggled but gotten by versus those for whom it was existential.
Or more briefly, targeting.
The boring technical one is that his objectives (fund the government and reduce imports) contradict.
The fundamental one is that Trump is not, and never has been, a serious individual.
Sadly the Nobel committee is concerned about theories and real world reality usually gets in the way in Economics because the numerous side factors usually override the theory..
What he actually wants is every World leader to grovel at his feet and offer favours in return for leniency. In fact he claims it has already happened.
What will actually happen is large trading blocks like the EU will slap him about while the UK watches on from the sidelines.
Is there a Darwin Award for Economics?