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Perhaps the government will not get the blame – politicalbetting.com

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  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,569

    Even post-war, with the country bombed out and the rise of Council housing, we have never proportionately built as many houses as we did in the 1930s under a free market before Attlee's disastrous planning reforms.

    The free market works, when given space to do so.
    There were quite a lot of council houses built pre-war, often as part of slum clearance schemes.
    My late father-in-law worked for a Town Council in the North West which did a lot of slum clearance/council house building. He joined the department straight from school, after School Certificate, and was advised to put his name down for a house. When he protested that he didn't want one, it was pointed out that by the time he got to the top of the list he would. And indeed, on marriage, he and his new wife were able to move into a new council house, and lived for around 30 years.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 943
    Dopermean said:

    Pedantic correction - Sussex
    Essex vs Surrey, Essex batting line-up looking a bit thin, opening with Paul Walter.
    Surrey top 6 all former/current internationals.
    Essex / Somerset a value bet at circa 7s ?
    Surrey evens
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,729

    Can't see the article but is this creating many thousands of US well paid jobs for low skilled workers? I somehow doubt it - this is the reason behind the tariffs, not investment in machinery.
    Unlikely.
    And note this is from before Trump took office.

    The only thing tariffs are likely to do is to allow everyone in the production chain to raise their prices.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012
    edited April 4
    TOPPING said:

    Absolutely. Strictly. But I think we have to rub along as we can. We cannot say with absolute certainty that Tooth fairies, Santa, and god (the holy triumvirate) exist.

    But I am happy to enlist an amalgam of philosophical giants and operate under the assumption that none of them do.
    I am sure there is an argument which links the concept of a single self existent uncaused cause of all reality with the tooth fairy and Santa, but I don't know what it might be.

    American philosphers at this point would add that you have forgotten to add Linus's Great Pumpkin to your list. It is conventional to invoke it at this point. For example you will find it in Plantinga's 'Faith and Rationality'.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867

    https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1908086617698394571

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 28% (+2)
    LAB: 22% (-1)
    CON: 20% (-2)
    LDM: 13% (+1)
    GRN: 11% (=)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @FindoutnowUK, 2 Apr.
    Changes w/ 26 Mar.


    Find Out Now seem to consistently be outliers in terms of the REF vote shares and lead.

    That doesn't mean they are wrong as they may be picking up on something the others are missing, but it is noteworthy.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,029
    Roger said:

    Is that one of findoutnow's 10 minute polls?

    Looks like overall majority for Reform. A good result for Trump

    What is a findoutnow 10 minute poll ?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,534
    Cookie said:

    Off thread - I've just been to my youngest's Easter assembly. I will favour you all with a few thoughts:

    Again, a religious theme for Easter. I am mildly uncomfortable with this: I would imagine the large proportion of the school with a non-Christian heritage (I've mentioned before: from about 2% English-as-a-foreign-language 5 or 6 years ago, we are now at about 40%, with the bulk being Asian - along with of course a lot of Asians born here who speak English perfectly well but do not have a Christian heritage) are also rather uncomfortable with it. It's not like the Christmas story - which is part of our culture almost aside from the religious element - it's the actual stating-that-Jesus-came-back-to-life bit. Feels a bit uncomfortable getting Muslims and Hindus doing that. Also, it's rather harder to deliver the Easter story than the Christmas story in a primary school setting: a birth in difficult circumstances is believable and relatable; a man getting tortured to death is not relatable and a man coming back from the dead is not believable.
    Anyway, it was - because this is how primary school assemblies go - a retelling of the Christian Easter story, from the point of view of the trees which provided the wood for the manger, a fishing boat, and the cross, together with some twee and unnecessarily drawn out songs and one surprisingly jaunty and enjoyable one. Of its sort, it was actually quite good, though unfortunately the child who delivered the moral at the end delivered it so quietly that it was lost (possibly that we can all overcome disappointments and succeed in our dreams despite setbacks?). Happy to report my rather unfocused daughter delivered her couple of lines as Mary quite capably, before, unfortunately, going to sit behind the fat girl* behind whom she was lost from sight thereafter. Though enjoyably, for a primary school performance, the star of the show was tree #2, who with a few words and actions and a confident manner managed to be the centre of attention and managed somehow to knowingly catch the eye of everyone in the audience.

    So: uncomfortably religious, not really primary-school=appropriate, trite, some tedious songs with too many choruses - and yet from the efforts of kids and staff, actually rather charming. Realised with a jolt coming out that there's only a couple of these left, and the long kids-at-primary-school stage of my life, which has lasted almost a quarter of a lifetime, is - well the end of it is almost in sight. Feeling a little wistful about that.

    *the fat girl has all the hallmarks of one in my day who would have been socially shunned. I'm happy to report that this is not the case and she is as included in whatever it is 10 year old girls do as the rest of them and that they judge her purely by her personality. Also happy to report that she is surprisingly brilliant on stage. I hope this keeps up for her at secondary school.

    What's wrong with non-christians sitting through an Easter themed assembly?

    They are all at skool to learn presumably and learning about Easter seems rather appropriate given that it is almost Easter and the event has played, and to a lesser extent still plays, a huge part in the religious culture and history of this country.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705
    Nigelb said:

    Or indeed in the US.
    Though this price point will likely change now that Trump has tariffed cotton imports.

    How a $12.98 T-Shirt Is Made in America—at a Profit
    American Giant invested in machinery and made design changes to produce inexpensive T-shirts for Walmart
    https://www.wsj.com/business/retail/america-made-shirts-american-giant-6fb4ae70
    And people are expecting bilateral trade deals to take place to mitigate the effect of the tariffs.

    India provides a significant amount of textiles to the US, where it has a competitive (cost) advantage. If, as is possibly perhaps likely, they reduce tariffs to zero both ways then India will benefit greatly.

    https://www.business-standard.com/industry/news/trump-s-tariff-gives-indian-textile-exporters-an-edge-over-competitors-125040300158_1.html

    Incidentally, textile imports to the US were last year US$110bn. Or 0.4% of GDP before anyone gets too carried away. Computer hardware is by far the biggest component of US imports and who the hell knows how much a MacBook is these days. The price could go up by $1,000 and no one would know if it was tariff-induced or Apple's marketing strategy. No wonder the tech bros were at the inauguration.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,120

    Ouch.
    Indeed, but it must be noted that Trump and his team are not ashamed of that part of their history
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,792

    Believing in a free market and liberalisation of laws, and the reversal of socialist 1940s policies implemented under the Attlee government is the polar opposite of Trumpian economics, or simpleton.

    Its what the Conservatives used to believe in and did well in the 1980s, just a shame it wasn't done with housing.
    Nah, it is Trumpian and very very simpleton. All "free markets" have regulation. Planning laws are sometimes dumb, but overall they are there to provide structure. You are obsessed by it because you found it difficult to get on the housing ladder and this is your answer to that heartache. Except that it wouldn't be. It is as simplistic as Trump's Tariffs which are his emotional and childish response to the juvenile refrain "it's not fair". But hey, it is a free country and I support your right to have simplistic childish solutions to the country's challenges.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,481
    F1: fascinating info: Gasly's tyres lost 2.5kg after a long stint. This may be why he was disqualified.

    https://x.com/adamcooperF1/status/1908086952785768514
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,792

    Labour need to hammer Farage's close links to Trump from now until 2028 relentlessly.

    Except that Starmer has had his head further up Trump's rectum that he had a chat with Farage while he was up there
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,918
    boulay said:

    Surely you can’t be seriously complaining about an Easter thing having a religious theme - sort of the whole point of Easter and the therefore the holiday.



    It's a sobering thought that non-Christian countries have only one holiday a year - in the Summer.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,120
    @juliamacfarlane

    China finance ministry: Beijing to impose tariffs of 34% on ALL US goods

    https://x.com/juliamacfarlane/status/1908100520440402256
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,214
    edited April 4
    Foss said:

    According to the article the 'company buys yarn that is grown, spun, dyed and sewn in the U.S.'...
    Joking aside, cotton is grown on a very large scale in the US. It was* price competitive on the world market, because of automation.

    *Tariff war etc...
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,214
    HYUFD said:

    Neither is the word of God a democracy
    If he drops me a WhatsApp, I'll read it. Promise.

    By contrast, words written down *by men* 1500-3000 years ago may have some merit but I'll take them in context.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    Scott_xP said:

    @juliamacfarlane

    China finance ministry: Beijing to impose tariffs of 34% on ALL US goods

    https://x.com/juliamacfarlane/status/1908100520440402256

    Matches US tariff on Chinese imports
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,232
    edited April 4
    Straw poll on Facebook for local election by "Our Bassetlaw": (Self selecting, obviously no weighting or anything), various Notts County council.

    Labour 10%
    Lib Dem 3%
    Conservative 7%
    Green 5%
    Reform 68%

    1,363 votes.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,819
    boulay said:

    Surely you can’t be seriously complaining about an Easter thing having a religious theme - sort of the whole point of Easter and the therefore the holiday.



    I just find it a bit weird having religion at all in a school. I know it was a feature of my primary schooling in the 80s, but it seemed an incongruous going-through-the-motions-which-no-one-seriously-believed-in even then - mildly embarrassing for both staff and children*. I'd have thought we'd have moved beyond that by now. Leave religion to the religious and keep schools secular.

    And there is such a large proportion of the school which is of a religion other than Christianity - it seems odd to get them to participate in an assembly setting out in however primary-schoolish a way the basic tenets of a religion of which they are not part.


    *The more so, to our ten year-old-brains, when a substitute teacher came in who clearly believed all this - I remember her getting very agitated after a lack of attention to a prayer that we were begrudging God five minutes of our time, a complaint which drew as much blank incomprehension from the children as it did from the headteacher whom she needlessly drew into the whole palaver.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012
    TOPPING said:

    Absolutely. Strictly. But I think we have to rub along as we can. We cannot say with absolute certainty that Tooth fairies, Santa, and god (the holy triumvirate) exist.

    But I am happy to enlist an amalgam of philosophical giants and operate under the assumption that none of them do.
    I have a grandson who has a justified belief in Santa, in that he possesses mental assent and has grounds and reasons for so thinking. Which at six is fair enough. But, sorry to give away the secret, there are in fact very good reasons for thinking that this belief does not have the quality of being true. A plethora of far superior explanations for the Santa phenomenon exist. So I don't believe in Santa, though he does. he does not know that Santa exists, even though he thinks he does. Even at 6, epistemology is tough stuff.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,480

    There were quite a lot of council houses built pre-war, often as part of slum clearance schemes.
    My late father-in-law worked for a Town Council in the North West which did a lot of slum clearance/council house building. He joined the department straight from school, after School Certificate, and was advised to put his name down for a house. When he protested that he didn't want one, it was pointed out that by the time he got to the top of the list he would. And indeed, on marriage, he and his new wife were able to move into a new council house, and lived for around 30 years.
    Indeed, the St Helier Estate was built in the 1930s but by the London County Council as public housing rather than by property developers chasing a profit.

    Both my paternal and maternal families moved out from Inner London as part of the slum clearances. My mother's family were in Forest Gate and moved to West Wickham in 1935 while my father's family were in Clapton and moved to Shirley, Croydon in 1934.

    All of it was public housing built by the London County Council, sadly abolished. The peak of the housebuilding was in the 1930s but it did continue briefly after the war - the St Helier Estate suffered bomb damage during the Blitz and later as a result of V1 and V2 rockets and there was a lot of work done from 1945-50 to restore the Estate.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,507

    Ouch.
    I’ve discovered from discussions on social media, that Americans who believe that slavery was a kind of finishing school for Africans, are not outliers.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,534
    Pulpstar said:

    Straw poll on Facebook for local election by "Our Bassetlaw": (Self selecting, obviously no weighting or anything), various Notts County council.

    Labour 10%
    Lib Dem 3%
    Conservative 7%
    Green 5%
    Reform 68%

    1,363 votes.

    Dear God. Have these voters learnt nothing from the last 48 hours? Maybe they don't follow any news.

    Reform is Farage and Farage is Britain Trump.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    edited April 4
    Cookie said:

    Off thread - I've just been to my youngest's Easter assembly. I will favour you all with a few thoughts:

    Again, a religious theme for Easter. I am mildly uncomfortable with this: I would imagine the large proportion of the school with a non-Christian heritage (I've mentioned before: from about 2% English-as-a-foreign-language 5 or 6 years ago, we are now at about 40%, with the bulk being Asian - along with of course a lot of Asians born here who speak English perfectly well but do not have a Christian heritage) are also rather uncomfortable with it. It's not like the Christmas story - which is part of our culture almost aside from the religious element - it's the actual stating-that-Jesus-came-back-to-life bit. Feels a bit uncomfortable getting Muslims and Hindus doing that. Also, it's rather harder to deliver the Easter story than the Christmas story in a primary school setting: a birth in difficult circumstances is believable and relatable; a man getting tortured to death is not relatable and a man coming back from the dead is not believable.
    Anyway, it was - because this is how primary school assemblies go - a retelling of the Christian Easter story, from the point of view of the trees which provided the wood for the manger, a fishing boat, and the cross, together with some twee and unnecessarily drawn out songs and one surprisingly jaunty and enjoyable one. Of its sort, it was actually quite good, though unfortunately the child who delivered the moral at the end delivered it so quietly that it was lost (possibly that we can all overcome disappointments and succeed in our dreams despite setbacks?). Happy to report my rather unfocused daughter delivered her couple of lines as Mary quite capably, before, unfortunately, going to sit behind the fat girl* behind whom she was lost from sight thereafter. Though enjoyably, for a primary school performance, the star of the show was tree #2, who with a few words and actions and a confident manner managed to be the centre of attention and managed somehow to knowingly catch the eye of everyone in the audience.

    So: uncomfortably religious, not really primary-school=appropriate, trite, some tedious songs with too many choruses - and yet from the efforts of kids and staff, actually rather charming. Realised with a jolt coming out that there's only a couple of these left, and the long kids-at-primary-school stage of my life, which has lasted almost a quarter of a lifetime, is - well the end of it is almost in sight. Feeling a little wistful about that.

    *the fat girl has all the hallmarks of one in my day who would have been socially shunned. I'm happy to report that this is not the case and she is as included in whatever it is 10 year old girls do as the rest of them and that they judge her purely by her personality. Also happy to report that she is surprisingly brilliant on stage. I hope this keeps up for her at secondary school.

    So I assume you would also ban Ramadan, Eid, Hannukah and Diwali themed assemblies too in non faith state schools?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,481

    If he drops me a WhatsApp, I'll read it. Promise.

    By contrast, words written down *by men* 1500-3000 years ago may have some merit but I'll take them in context.
    The Seleukid/Hellenic influence is readily apparent when reading Genesis. It's why the tale of Eden makes no sense. It's a rip-off of Prometheus-Lucifer (Lucifer meaning light-bringer) gifting fire/technology/knowledge to mankind and getting punished, because Zeus-God is angry.

    But in the Christian version why would God allow Satan in? Why put the tree of knowledge there? How could an omniscient being not know Lucifer was crawling about?

    It then copies the follow-up story of Epimetheus and Pandora, Pandora being Eve, of course.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,534
    HYUFD said:

    Matches US tariff on Chinese imports
    Did we ever get clarity on whether Trump's Tariffs were also on supply chain parts?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,507
    Pulpstar said:

    Straw poll on Facebook for local election by "Our Bassetlaw": (Self selecting, obviously no weighting or anything), various Notts County council.

    Labour 10%
    Lib Dem 3%
    Conservative 7%
    Green 5%
    Reform 68%

    1,363 votes.

    25% nationwide might well = 63% in Bassetlaw.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    Roger said:

    Is that one of findoutnow's 10 minute polls?

    Looks like overall majority for Reform. A good result for Trump

    The FON poll yes gives a Reform majority, just, of 4 seats.

    Reform 327, Labour 150, LDs 56, Tories 50, SNP 37

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=N&CON=20&LAB=22&LIB=13&Reform=28&Green=11&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTReform=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2024base
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,232
    edited April 4

    Dear God. Have these voters learnt nothing from the last 48 hours? Maybe they don't follow any news.

    Reform is Farage and Farage is Britain Trump.

    It is ex-mining leave central around here, a place you'd expect Reform strength tbh. And the poll is both self selected and non weighted. But still interesting.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043

    Only if there's no competition.

    Liberate planning back to what it was like in the 1930s and it would be cheaper to build a new house next door to a too expensive one, which would drive the prices of too expensive ones down.

    Competition works. There's no reason why competition can't be made to apply to housing just as it does for other sectors.
    Even then would still not be affordable for one earner when most couples are 2 earners
  • scampi25scampi25 Posts: 99

    Dear God. Have these voters learnt nothing from the last 48 hours? Maybe they don't follow any news.

    Reform is Farage and Farage is Britain Trump.

    More likely they don't care. The trumpacysm does not guarantee that everyone here votes Labour
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,120
    @faisalislam

    China decries “unilateral bullying” of the US as it hits back with a 34% tariff on all US imports from next Thursday.

    European markets tumble 5% again.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,792
    TOPPING said:

    Absolutely. Strictly. But I think we have to rub along as we can. We cannot say with absolute certainty that Tooth fairies, Santa, and god (the holy triumvirate) exist.

    But I am happy to enlist an amalgam of philosophical giants and operate under the assumption that none of them do.
    Based on your posts (and particularly that one) I think it is fair to say that there is also a very large body of individuals both past and present who have intellectual capacity far greater than your own that still profess faith, or at least the possibility of a higher supreme being or universal intelligence.

    Drawing comparison between religious faith and Santa and the tooth fairy is about as pathetic and unimaginative an analogy as comparing every politician with Hitler.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    edited April 4
    Cookie said:

    Well yes there are some splodges elsewhere in the developed world were religious fervour is the norm (though I'd question rural Ireland, nowadays - 30 years ago perhaps). But they are exceptions.

    And yes, for centuries, traditional values and morality were the norm. I don't think that's an argument that it should be the norm now. I certainly wouldn't want the value of the Middle East to be the norm here. And plenty of things used to be the norm, like autocracy, outdoor defecation and grinding poverty - I don't think we should be looking to emulate those either.
    We were in Donegal a few years ago and met a man talking about looking out for the 'little people' and fairies.

    Donegal also rejected abortion in the referendum in Ireland in 2018
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,729
    TOPPING said:

    And people are expecting bilateral trade deals to take place to mitigate the effect of the tariffs.

    India provides a significant amount of textiles to the US, where it has a competitive (cost) advantage. If, as is possibly perhaps likely, they reduce tariffs to zero both ways then India will benefit greatly.

    https://www.business-standard.com/industry/news/trump-s-tariff-gives-indian-textile-exporters-an-edge-over-competitors-125040300158_1.html

    Incidentally, textile imports to the US were last year US$110bn. Or 0.4% of GDP before anyone gets too carried away. Computer hardware is by far the biggest component of US imports and who the hell knows how much a MacBook is these days. The price could go up by $1,000 and no one would know if it was tariff-induced or Apple's marketing strategy. No wonder the tech bros were at the inauguration.
    This is incoherent stuff from you.
    For one thing, Apple is the single company most affected by the tariffs. Their overseas manufacturing costs (assuming tariffs are indeed imposed) are going to rise by something like 40% for their US sales.

    Textiles might be a small component of the economy, but they're a much larger proportion of the sorting of the Trump voter you were waxing lyrical about earlier this morning.
    And 95% of US apparel is imported.

    The pain will be felt at both ends of society.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Straw poll on Facebook for local election by "Our Bassetlaw": (Self selecting, obviously no weighting or anything), various Notts County council.

    Labour 10%
    Lib Dem 3%
    Conservative 7%
    Green 5%
    Reform 68%

    1,363 votes.

    This sort of "poll" is absolutely worthless. I don't just say that because it has RefUK doing well (which is clear enough from genuine polls) - just that all such "polls" are pure voodoo.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,356
    GIN1138 said:


    Find Out Now seem to consistently be outliers in terms of the REF vote shares and lead.

    That doesn't mean they are wrong as they may be picking up on something the others are missing, but it is noteworthy.
    From memory, much stronger enthusiasm/claimed certainty to vote filter. And right now, Farage is attracting that "definitely going to vote for him" enthusiasm. How that plays out in a real election will become clearer as we go along.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,455

    This sort of "poll" is absolutely worthless. I don't just say that because it has RefUK doing well (which is clear enough from genuine polls) - just that all such "polls" are pure voodoo.
    I think Pulpstar knows this. More interesting is whether Findoutnow is also?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,729

    Did we ever get clarity on whether Trump's Tariffs were also on supply chain parts?
    The only clarity you get from Trump is the realisation that he's an idiot.
  • twistedfirestopper3twistedfirestopper3 Posts: 2,508
    edited April 4
    Religion is a load of old bollocks to me, and I choose not to believe any of it. Obviously, if some deity does ever take notice of me and says hello, I'll review my options.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,154
    edited April 4
    Pulpstar said:

    Straw poll on Facebook for local election by "Our Bassetlaw": (Self selecting, obviously no weighting or anything), various Notts County council.

    Labour 10%
    Lib Dem 3%
    Conservative 7%
    Green 5%
    Reform 68%

    1,363 votes.

    Which tells you everything you need to know about Facebook. I live in roughly the leftiest part of Scotland and people on my local Facebook group talk about running cyclists over and assassinating Ed Miliband.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,455
    edited April 4
    I wonder whether the temptation for China and Taiwan to bring out their own Apple computers (rebranded) becomes irresistable.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,819
    HYUFD said:

    So I assume you would also ban Ramadan, Eid, Hannukah and Diwali themed assemblies too in non faith state schools?
    Yes, I would. I am at least equally uncomfortable with these.
    (Well, 'ban' is a strong word. I don't know how I'd enforce it. But still.)
    I think religion is a perfectly reasonable pasttime for those who choose it.
    I also think it's a reasonably subject of study for those who choose it - my daughters at senior school both did RS in years 7-9, and it is taught a lot more interestingly than it was in my day - it is more like philosophy, whereas ours was just checkbox learning of 'this is what Jews do on a Saturday'.
    But I don't think it's something we should be presenting as truth or celebrating. The sectionalisation of our society isn't really anything to celebrate.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,729

    Joking aside, cotton is grown on a very large scale in the US. It was* price competitive on the world market, because of automation.

    *Tariff war etc...
    Tariffs will, of course, allow US producers to raise their prices domestically.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,356
    Nigelb said:

    The only clarity you get from Trump is the realisation that he's an idiot.
    I mean, yes he is, but look at all the people he has pushed past to get where he is- even if that's merely "outside jail".

    Strong "outsmarted by a red bus" vibes.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,729
    HYUFD said:

    Matches US tariff on Chinese imports
    let's see if Trump now sticks to his promise, and imposes an additional 34% on Chinese imports, in retaliation for the retaliation.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,214
    Eabhal said:

    Which tells you everything you need to know about Facebook. I live in roughly the leftiest part of Scotland and people on my local Facebook group talk about running cyclists over and assassinating Ed Miliband.
    The stuff I see on Farcebook varys according to account (I have several, which all have fake details, so I can see friends baby pics etc). Even not posting, the recommendations (presumably based on the people I have linked to and their likes) vary wildly.

    The algorithms of social media have the effect of trying to find extremism you will like, or rage hate on. Mainly the latter, I think.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,214

    Religion is a load of old bollocks to me, and I choose not to believe any of it. Obviously, if some deity does ever take notice of me and says hello, I'll review my options.

    Hi, we've just appointed you Emissary.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,729
    Cookie said:

    I just find it a bit weird having religion at all in a school. I know it was a feature of my primary schooling in the 80s, but it seemed an incongruous going-through-the-motions-which-no-one-seriously-believed-in even then - mildly embarrassing for both staff and children*. I'd have thought we'd have moved beyond that by now. Leave religion to the religious and keep schools secular.

    And there is such a large proportion of the school which is of a religion other than Christianity - it seems odd to get them to participate in an assembly setting out in however primary-schoolish a way the basic tenets of a religion of which they are not part.

    *The more so, to our ten year-old-brains, when a substitute teacher came in who clearly believed all this - I remember her getting very agitated after a lack of attention to a prayer that we were begrudging God five minutes of our time, a complaint which drew as much blank incomprehension from the children as it did from the headteacher whom she needlessly drew into the whole palaver.
    Against that, the C of E primary schools I'm familiar with which taught a Christian ethos - as opposed to faith - did so pretty effectively.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,091
    71% of Brits favour the UK retaliating on tariffs according to YouGov .

    Starmer is looking increasingly spineless .
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,214
    edited April 4

    This sort of "poll" is absolutely worthless. I don't just say that because it has RefUK doing well (which is clear enough from genuine polls) - just that all such "polls" are pure voodoo.
    Rather unfair on voodoo, really.

    "My name," a voice said, and Bobby wanted to scream
    when he realized that it came from his own mouth, "is
    Samedi, and you have slain my cousin's horse.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,729

    I mean, yes he is, but look at all the people he has pushed past to get where he is- even if that's merely "outside jail".

    Strong "outsmarted by a red bus" vibes.
    I can't deny his effectiveness is getting elected.
    He hasn't gotten any better at governing, though.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,214
    Nigelb said:

    Tariffs will, of course, allow US producers to raise their prices domestically.
    The US is the third largest exporter of cotton in the world. At the moment.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,569
    nico67 said:

    71% of Brits favour the UK retaliating on tariffs according to YouGov .

    Starmer is looking increasingly spineless .

    Sorry, disagree. I think Starmer's being sensible, in sitting back and waiting and watching. And, I assume planning in the background.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705
    algarkirk said:

    I am sure there is an argument which links the concept of a single self existent uncaused cause of all reality with the tooth fairy and Santa, but I don't know what it might be.

    American philosphers at this point would add that you have forgotten to add Linus's Great Pumpkin to your list. It is conventional to invoke it at this point.
    Chuck it in. Look, we as humans need to create entities for many reasons. Land grabs in mediaeval times, explaining volcanoes, keeping people scared and compliant. While conversely "we" like to think that we're not just randomly existing and that there is a "purpose" and, more importantly, that it doesn't all end when we breathe our last. Of course we do.

    So I perfectly understand religion from all sides. Just that I find it bizarre in particular today that it is so strong among those who are religious.

    I would categorise myself, for example, as being in the "anglican atheist" tradition by which I mean that the direction of travel of anglicanism inevitably leads to a place that, where once there were fripperies and icons and gods and paintings and crosses and whatnot, there is now nothing to get in the way of wanting (and trying) to do good in and of itself.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939
    HYUFD said:

    We were in Donegal a few years ago and met a man talking about looking out for the 'little people' and fairies.

    Donegal also rejected abortion in the referendum in Ireland in 2018
    Not surprising it doesn't like children or homosexuals either.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,091
    Nigelb said:

    Retaliatory tit for tat has always been popular with electorates.
    The results of such a policy, far less so.
    That’s true but the public mood has had enough of the Trump arselicking. And where is Farage has he said anything about the tariffs !

    Why is the UK media not nailing him to the wall over his Trump fawning .
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,091
    Starmer is screwed either way now . Any deal is likely to be just what Trump wants and will look like abject surrender.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705
    algarkirk said:

    I have a grandson who has a justified belief in Santa, in that he possesses mental assent and has grounds and reasons for so thinking. Which at six is fair enough. But, sorry to give away the secret, there are in fact very good reasons for thinking that this belief does not have the quality of being true. A plethora of far superior explanations for the Santa phenomenon exist. So I don't believe in Santa, though he does. he does not know that Santa exists, even though he thinks he does. Even at 6, epistemology is tough stuff.
    A belief in santa is just as sensible as a belief in god. No one has seen either and some of their works have been shown to be by the hand of humans.

    You cannot create a distinction between santa, the tooth fairy and god. Because they are all the subject of a belief (I won't say irrational) and none can be proved to exist. You might make condescending noises towards children who believe in santa (and, presumably, adults who believe in Thor or Osiris) but have no logical basis to do so. You can epistomolgise up your wazoo but it makes no odds.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,455
    edited April 4
    Sean_F said:

    I’ve discovered from discussions on social media, that Americans who believe that slavery was a kind of finishing school for Africans, are not outliers.
    Though a good example I think it would be difficult to find something which would lower most peoples expectations of the average American than at the moment. (WilliamGenn excepted)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,552
    nico67 said:

    That’s true but the public mood has had enough of the Trump arselicking. And where is Farage has he said anything about the tariffs !

    Why is the UK media not nailing him to the wall over his Trump fawning .
    The Tories should be. Also, Trump's tariffs not being imposed on Russia, Cuba, North Korea - should be some toxic guilt by association there. Farage has chosen a very poor friend in Putin.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    edited April 4
    nico67 said:

    Starmer is screwed either way now . Any deal is likely to be just what Trump wants and will look like abject surrender.

    He got a 10% tariff on UK imports, which is less than the tariffs the EU, China, Japan, India and Canada and South Africa got on their imports in the US.

    He should just take that and forget a trade deal with Trump
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705

    Based on your posts (and particularly that one) I think it is fair to say that there is also a very large body of individuals both past and present who have intellectual capacity far greater than your own that still profess faith, or at least the possibility of a higher supreme being or universal intelligence.

    Drawing comparison between religious faith and Santa and the tooth fairy is about as pathetic and unimaginative an analogy as comparing every politician with Hitler.
    "Religion is based primarily and mainly upon fear. It is partly the terror of the unknown and partly the wish to feel that you have a kind of elder brother who will stand by you in all your troubles and disputes. Fear is the basis of the whole thing – fear of the mysterious, fear of defeat, fear of death. Fear is the parent of cruelty, and therefore it is no wonder if cruelty and religion have gone hand in hand. It is because fear is at the basis of those two things."

    That seems to suit you as you appear to be a coward.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939
    Say what you like about Donny.
    He's bringing oil prices down.
    BIGLY!!!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    dixiedean said:

    Not surprising it doesn't like children or homosexuals either.
    It did vote for same sex marriage in 2015 but by less than the Irish average, it rejected divorce in the 1995 referendum
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    Cookie said:

    Yes, I would. I am at least equally uncomfortable with these.
    (Well, 'ban' is a strong word. I don't know how I'd enforce it. But still.)
    I think religion is a perfectly reasonable pasttime for those who choose it.
    I also think it's a reasonably subject of study for those who choose it - my daughters at senior school both did RS in years 7-9, and it is taught a lot more interestingly than it was in my day - it is more like philosophy, whereas ours was just checkbox learning of 'this is what Jews do on a Saturday'.
    But I don't think it's something we should be presenting as truth or celebrating. The sectionalisation of our society isn't really anything to celebrate.
    Some logic there but you won't win many votes by banning Easter, Eid, Diwali and Hannukah celebrations in non faith schools
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,106
    Im guessing Trump / MAGA are about to find out the reason why tariff tit for tat just ends up in a trade war
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,797

    https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1908086617698394571

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 28% (+2)
    LAB: 22% (-1)
    CON: 20% (-2)
    LDM: 13% (+1)
    GRN: 11% (=)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @FindoutnowUK, 2 Apr.
    Changes w/ 26 Mar.

    A magnificent poll

    I want Reform over 30 and both Lab and Con under 20
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,552
    dixiedean said:

    Say what you like about Donny.
    He's bringing oil prices down.
    BIGLY!!!

    No-one in America will drill! drill! drill! becaue the economics of exploration won't work at thee price.

    Of course, when he flattens Iran's hydrocrbons facilities at the start of June, they will bounce back.

    Even more so when Ukraine flattens Russia's.

    The Saudi's will cash in their investment in Clan Trump.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,729
    nico67 said:

    That’s true but the public mood has had enough of the Trump arselicking. And where is Farage has he said anything about the tariffs !

    Why is the UK media not nailing him to the wall over his Trump fawning .
    That's really the job of the other parties' politicians, and they should be doing it better. TBF to Ed Davey, he at least has had a go at it.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939
    Not according to Fox News.
    It's Dems in disarray.
    And somebody called Karen Read.
    And a college footballer run over by an immigrant.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,819
    HYUFD said:

    Some logic there but you won't win many votes by banning Easter, Eid, Diwali and Hannukah celebrations in non faith schools
    Maybe not. I suspect I am close to one end of the spectrum with my uncomfortablity with religion. I'm not furiously opposed to religion in its place, but I don't want it creeping into my place!
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,162
    Scott_xP said:

    @peterfrankopan

    Some thoughts on the tariff disaster:

    1. Tech bros took pride of place at Trump's inauguration two months ago
    2. They showed up in the expectation that the new administration would help their companies soar even higher

    3. They figured that Trump would push Europe to loosen regulation - and put pressure on China.
    4. To show fealty, some dropped DEI policies (Meta), others interfered with editorial policy (WaPo) and others prepared to serve (DOGE)

    5. That has turned out to be one of the worst bets in history. The values of their companies went down by c.$1tr yesterday in one day. Apple alone lost more than $300bn.
    6. Finally, Trump has done the impossible: to join Liz Truss in the Economic Mismanagement Hall of Shame

    https://x.com/peterfrankopan/status/1908082410278866981

    The other alternative is that the billionaire techbros now buy cheap stock, Trump then withdraws his tariffs, the stock market booms, and the billionaires become even richer.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,303
    FTSE continues to drop like a stone.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,397
    edited April 4
    Leon said:

    A magnificent poll

    I want Reform over 30 and both Lab and Con under 20
    Brown's very tired looking government managed a 20% in summer 2009. I don't think that a sitting Labour government has ever had a proper poll in the teens.

    EDIT: There was an 18% in May 2009
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,552
    edited April 4
    slade said:

    The other alternative is that the billionaire techbros now buy cheap stock, Trump then withdraws his tariffs, the stock market booms, and the billionaires become even richer.
    Another alternative is they shorted the stock and have already made untold billions.

    THEN they buy cheap. But - not yet. Further to fall...
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,819
    Nigelb said:

    Against that, the C of E primary schools I'm familiar with which taught a Christian ethos - as opposed to faith - did so pretty effectively.
    That's fair enough Nigel. And I don't mind the existence of CoE schools, and actually my understanding is where they have a monopoly - which is much of rural England - they don't exploit that by ramping up the religious aspect and the CoEness is kept pretty light touch. But I'd quite like the option to send my kids to a secular school, and they aren't really allowed to exist. They all still have this background religiosity. It baffles me, because my understanding is that we secularists are in the majority. But as I said to HYUFD, I'm close to one end of the spectrum of secularists in my discomfort with religion - most people care less than I do and many just want to see a primary school like their own primary school experience.

    (I'm still, 40 years later, angry about the inadequacy of my own primary school - which was no more than averagely crappy by the standards of its day. I didn't have an unhappy time there, but even at aged 10 I could tell the teachers were no great brains, and I resented that. But few hold this specific grudge.)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    edited April 4
    slade said:

    The other alternative is that the billionaire techbros now buy cheap stock, Trump then withdraws his tariffs, the stock market booms, and the billionaires become even richer.
    The average Trump voter doesn't give a shit about billionaires on the coasts, they want tariffs and rustbelt jobs back and to send illegal immigrants home.

    So that would be even more political suicide for Trump, indeed while Trump beat Harris US wide last year Harris won the billionaire vote with 83 US billionaires openly backing her to just 52 for Trump

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2024/10/30/kamala-harris-has-more-billionaires-prominently-backing-her-than-trump-bezos-and-griffin-weigh-in-updated/
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,214
    Scott_xP said:

    @juliamacfarlane

    China finance ministry: Beijing to impose tariffs of 34% on ALL US goods

    https://x.com/juliamacfarlane/status/1908100520440402256

    I'm sure Musk is fine with all this. Will be interesting to watch.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,214
    HYUFD said:

    The average Trump voter doesn't give a shit about billionaires on the coasts, they want tariffs and rustbelt jobs back.

    So that would be even more political suicide for Trump, indeed while Trump beat Harris US wide last year Harris won the billionaire vote with 83 US billionaires openly backing her to just 52 for Trump

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2024/10/30/kamala-harris-has-more-billionaires-prominently-backing-her-than-trump-bezos-and-griffin-weigh-in-updated/
    Trump gives a shit about (some) billionaires on the coast though: they control his means of communication.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,272
    Nigelb said:

    let's see if Trump now sticks to his promise, and imposes an additional 34% on Chinese imports, in retaliation for the retaliation.
    Can we just move quickly to 1000% tariffs and see how that works (or doesn't) rather than have months of repeated escalation.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,264
    Cookie said:

    Maybe not. I suspect I am close to one end of the spectrum with my uncomfortablity with religion. I'm not furiously opposed to religion in its place, but I don't want it creeping into my place!
    I share some of your discomfort. My children go to a CofE school due to few options locally; against stereotypes of CofE, there's quite a lot of religion, taught as fact. Goes with the territory (church school) but I'm not best pleased that my taxes fund this indoctrination in state schools, specifically my children's! They do also cover and celebrate/mark at least Eid and Diwali etc and they learn about other religions (I'd be fascinated to see how this is done "Muslims believe... And they're WRONG!"? :lol:). I'm in favour of schools teaching religion - as in what the major faiths and their beliefs and histories are - it encourages tolerance and understanding of others and an understanding of the world and history, but I'd like there to be the space in such teaching for acknowledgement that these are not uncontested truths.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705
    The interesting thing about the tariffs is that they were trailed bigly by, amongst others, the very person who said he was going to introduce them and for some reason the market didn't discount that and seemed to be shocked that it happened.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,507
    Leon said:

    A magnificent poll

    I want Reform over 30 and both Lab and Con under 20
    FPT Uzbekistan sounds fascinating.

    If say, I went there for a week, would you recommend seeing all of Khiva, Samarkand, Bukhara, and Tashkent, or just one or two of them?

  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,214

    FTSE continues to drop like a stone.

    Trump still has some way to go to match Hoover though, who presided over the Dow losing almost 90% between 1929-32 - although to be fair, Hoover didn't personally kick things off in the say Trump has.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,317
    Lots of possible answers to this but in a political context, what separates a Six Nations Rugby match from an Arsenal home game or a Sabrina Carpenter concert?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    Selebian said:

    I share some of your discomfort. My children go to a CofE school due to few options locally; against stereotypes of CofE, there's quite a lot of religion, taught as fact. Goes with the territory (church school) but I'm not best pleased that my taxes fund this indoctrination in state schools, specifically my children's! They do also cover and celebrate/mark at least Eid and Diwali etc and they learn about other religions (I'd be fascinated to see how this is done "Muslims believe... And they're WRONG!"? :lol:). I'm in favour of schools teaching religion - as in what the major faiths and their beliefs and histories are - it encourages tolerance and understanding of others and an understanding of the world and history, but I'd like there to be the space in such teaching for acknowledgement that these are not uncontested truths.
    Religious parents also have to fund non faith state schools via their taxes
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,272
    TOPPING said:

    The interesting thing about the tariffs is that they were trailed bigly by, amongst others, the very person who said he was going to introduce them and for some reason the market didn't discount that and seemed to be shocked that it happened.

    I wonder if said person has ever promised to do something and then not done it?
  • vikvik Posts: 248

    "He" - Starmer - didn't get anything. The tariff rates applied were completely independent of any relationship Trump has with any other leader or country (except maybe Russia, which didn't have any tariff rate announced). Britain would have had exactly the same rate if he'd acted with the same force and vigour as Carney.
    This is correct.

    2024 US exports of goods to the UK were more than imports, so the UK got the baseline 10% rate. Starmer did nothing to get the 10% rate.

    https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c4120.html
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,507
    TOPPING said:

    The interesting thing about the tariffs is that they were trailed bigly by, amongst others, the very person who said he was going to introduce them and for some reason the market didn't discount that and seemed to be shocked that it happened.

    When people tell you they're going to do something harmful it's a good idea to believe them.

    "Only a shallow person fails to judge by appearances."
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,264
    HYUFD said:

    Religious parents also have to fund non faith state schools via their taxes
    Yes, but the point of schools is (should be?) to educate. You can do that, including on religion, while offering both sides of an argument where there are contested facts.

    This comes down, largely, I guess to our intertwining of church and state. If there's a state church then there is logic to state schools promoting that church. So perhaps it's that more fundamental fact that I should wish to change.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    Cookie said:

    That's fair enough Nigel. And I don't mind the existence of CoE schools, and actually my understanding is where they have a monopoly - which is much of rural England - they don't exploit that by ramping up the religious aspect and the CoEness is kept pretty light touch. But I'd quite like the option to send my kids to a secular school, and they aren't really allowed to exist. They all still have this background religiosity. It baffles me, because my understanding is that we secularists are in the majority. But as I said to HYUFD, I'm close to one end of the spectrum of secularists in my discomfort with religion - most people care less than I do and many just want to see a primary school like their own primary school experience.

    (I'm still, 40 years later, angry about the inadequacy of my own primary school - which was no more than averagely crappy by the standards of its day. I didn't have an unhappy time there, but even at aged 10 I could tell the teachers were no great brains, and I resented that. But few hold this specific grudge.)
    Even now secularists aren't in the majority even here.

    In the last census 56% of England and Wales said they were Christian, Jewish, Muslim, Hindu, Sikh or Buddhist and 37% said they had no religion.
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/culturalidentity/religion/bulletins/religionenglandandwales/census2021

    Yet only 37% of state primary schools are now faith schools, 63% secular and just 19% of state secondary schools in the UK are faith schools, 81% secular. So if anything we have too few religious and faith schools not too many

    https://www.goodschoolsguide.co.uk/choosing-a-school/state-schools/faith-schools-in-the-uk#:~:text=There are nearly 8,000 mainstream,of secondaries are faith schools.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    Techne

    Lab 24%
    Ref 24%
    Con 23%
    LD 13%
    Grn 8%
    SNP 3%

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1908109232332763361
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,214
    Andy_JS said:

    Techne

    Lab 24%
    Ref 24%
    Con 23%
    LD 13%
    Grn 8%
    SNP 3%

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1908109232332763361

    So no change, again.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,214
    Sean_F said:

    When people tell you they're going to do something harmful it's a good idea to believe them.

    "Only a shallow person fails to judge by appearances."
    I do not think I have ever seen a book that cannot be judged by its cover.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,232
    edited April 4
    Juche yr 0 stuff being done in real time. Amazing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    Labour controlled Westminster city council tells staff to take a 'white privilege test'

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/04/03/westminster-city-council-staff-white-privilege-test/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,729
    Cookie said:

    That's fair enough Nigel. And I don't mind the existence of CoE schools, and actually my understanding is where they have a monopoly - which is much of rural England - they don't exploit that by ramping up the religious aspect and the CoEness is kept pretty light touch. But I'd quite like the option to send my kids to a secular school, and they aren't really allowed to exist. They all still have this background religiosity. It baffles me, because my understanding is that we secularists are in the majority. But as I said to HYUFD, I'm close to one end of the spectrum of secularists in my discomfort with religion - most people care less than I do and many just want to see a primary school like their own primary school experience.

    (I'm still, 40 years later, angry about the inadequacy of my own primary school - which was no more than averagely crappy by the standards of its day. I didn't have an unhappy time there, but even at aged 10 I could tell the teachers were no great brains, and I resented that. But few hold this specific grudge.)
    Oh, I hold plenty such grudges - and equally I resent religious indoctrination.
    I don't think we're that far apart, other than that my level of religious tolerance is perhaps a little higher.
This discussion has been closed.