I am happy to report that the greatest work of Islamic astronomy, Ulugh Beg’s Zij il-Sultani - an amazing “book of stars”…. is now kept in the Bodleian Library in Oxford, England
I reassured our Uzbek guide, Bobur, that this is the best place for it
I'm definitely visiting Uzbekistan in the next 12 months. Probably need a visa I assume.
No visa needed for Brits. The Uzbeks are really keen on tourism. They make it as easy as possible. No queue for passports either, and Tashkent is a small efficient airport near the city
It is one of the fastest smoothest entries to a foreign country I’ve ever experienced
Have we done the actual calculation used to come up with these tariff levels?
(Apols if it is a repost.)
Here’s what the White House and its crack team of trade investigators seems to have done: Take the US’s goods trade deficit with any particular country, and divide it by the total amount of goods imported from that country. Cut that percentage in half, and there’s the US’s “reciprocal” tariff rate.
We can confirm this fits* the numbers for the first 24 countries listed, which we checked by hand because we could hardly believe it and also because we refuse to use AI for anything. Kudos to @orthonormalist and James Surowiecki, who both put it together, more or less.
Let’s look at Bangladesh as an example. The US imported $8.4bn of goods from Bangladesh in 2024, giving it a $6.2bn trade deficit with the country. 6.2 divided by 8.4 is 0.738.
And what do you know? The White House says that the country has “charged” 74 per cent “tariffs” against the US, “including currency manipulation and trade barriers”. https://archive.is/vEgsp#selection-2183.0-2209.81
(The USA's core problem is that Mr Chump is, in practice, a f*ckwit, who has surrounded himself with mushrooms so there's no one to save him from himself. But the entire world knows this - like the Pobble who has no toes:
The Chump with no grey cells Had once as many as we; When they said, 'Some day you may lose them all;'-- He replied, -- 'Fish fiddle de-dee!')
In replying to Stella Creasy in the Commons just now Jonathan Reynolds said that he feels very strongly it is not a choice between the US and the EU, as they are two key long term trading and security partners
Mandy Rice-Davies was a 1960's model and showgirl famous for saying "well he would say that, wouldn't he" (technically "well he would, wouldn't he") in court. "MRDA" is a shorthand used to point out that the person would say a thing because of his/her bias.
Thank you
It was part of the Profumo affair. MRD was replying to what has been described as the worst question ever in the history of cross-examination. The barrister was the Cambridge-educated lawyer James Burge, QC, who inspired Rumpole of the Bailey. MRD had also been a lover of Rachman, the notorious slum landlord, and the swindler Savundra. It was all go in the swinging sixties.
Basically for Trump to be correct, essentially everybody else who ever studied trade, business, economics, diplomacy, psychology, conflict and more has to be wrong, and not a little wrong but profoundly wrong.
Basically for Trump to be correct, essentially everybody else who ever studied trade, business, economics, diplomacy, psychology, conflict and more has to be wrong, and not a little wrong but profoundly wrong.
TRUMP TARIFFS SET TO WIPE OUT NEARLY $2 TRILLION FROM US STOCKS
Roughly $1.7 trillion is set to be erased from the S&P 500 Index when trading opens Thursday amid worries that President Donald Trump’s sweeping new round of tariffs could plunge the economy into a recession.
Basically for Trump to be correct, essentially everybody else who ever studied trade, business, economics, diplomacy, psychology, conflict and more has to be wrong, and not a little wrong but profoundly wrong.
Basically for Trump to be correct, essentially everybody else who ever studied trade, business, economics, diplomacy, psychology, conflict and more has to be wrong, and not a little wrong but profoundly wrong.
In slightly happier news I think we could get close to an all time solar generation record today, despite it only being April.
Wall to wall across virtually the entire country, and already 9.5gw just under an hour before peak insolation. Yesterday peaked around 10.7 I think.
I’m in danger of a sunburned nose in a place not usually noted for such detriments (and more prosaic than Bokhara).
Are you on top of the Usher Hall? How lovely.
Right coast but a bit further north, Aberdeen Art Gallery. Still a sentimental favourite after all those years, and its newish rooftop cafe a real boon in weather like this.
Dual Forecast: Liverpool & Nottingham Forest both to finish top 2 - 50/1 Straight Forecast: Liverpool 1st, Nottingham Forest 2nd - 40/1
Ignoring that the latter is a subset of the former so should be a longer price, these prices very much do not seem consistent with Nottingham Forest to come 2nd of about 12/1... which is pretty much what they are.
Basically for Trump to be correct, essentially everybody else who ever studied trade, business, economics, diplomacy, psychology, conflict and more has to be wrong, and not a little wrong but profoundly wrong.
To play Devil's Advocate for a minute, economic theory absolutely states that tariffs are harmful.
Economic theory states that all taxes are harmful, and tariffs are a tax.
Tariffs, like all taxes, create a deadweight welfare loss.
There are though many people who react with outrage at the idea of tariffs going up who nonetheless would support other taxes going up - whether that be income tax, national insurance, VAT or anything else. People who argue that the benefits from taxation outweigh the economic harm that taxes cause.
America has a tremendous budget deficit. It arguably needs to raise taxes to close the deficit, even if those taxes cause economic harm.
If a different tax had been raised by a different President of a different Party many of those objecting today would be supporting that and many of those today supporting it would be objecting.
No. Economic theory states neither of those things. Economic theory is slightly more sophisticated.
But Trump's approach to economics is almost as wrong as Erdoğan's. Erdoğan eventually gave in to economic theory. Will Trump?
TRUMP TARIFFS SET TO WIPE OUT NEARLY $2 TRILLION FROM US STOCKS
Roughly $1.7 trillion is set to be erased from the S&P 500 Index when trading opens Thursday amid worries that President Donald Trump’s sweeping new round of tariffs could plunge the economy into a recession.
THE OPERATION IS OVER! THE PATIENT LIVED, AND IS HEALING. THE PROGNOSIS IS THAT THE PATIENT WILL BE FAR STRONGER, BIGGER, BETTER, AND MORE RESILIENT THAN EVER BEFORE. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!
Basically for Trump to be correct, essentially everybody else who ever studied trade, business, economics, diplomacy, psychology, conflict and more has to be wrong, and not a little wrong but profoundly wrong.
To play Devil's Advocate for a minute, economic theory absolutely states that tariffs are harmful.
Economic theory states that all taxes are harmful, and tariffs are a tax.
Tariffs, like all taxes, create a deadweight welfare loss.
There are though many people who react with outrage at the idea of tariffs going up who nonetheless would support other taxes going up - whether that be income tax, national insurance, VAT or anything else. People who argue that the benefits from taxation outweigh the economic harm that taxes cause.
America has a tremendous budget deficit. It arguably needs to raise taxes to close the deficit, even if those taxes cause economic harm.
If a different tax had been raised by a different President of a different Party many of those objecting today would be supporting that and many of those today supporting it would be objecting.
The Senate is in the process of voting through a $3.5 trillion tax cut.
What this is about as much as anything else, is shifting the burden of taxation from the rich onto the middle class. Screwing the world economy is a by product.
TRUMP TARIFFS SET TO WIPE OUT NEARLY $2 TRILLION FROM US STOCKS
Roughly $1.7 trillion is set to be erased from the S&P 500 Index when trading opens Thursday amid worries that President Donald Trump’s sweeping new round of tariffs could plunge the economy into a recession.
In slightly happier news I think we could get close to an all time solar generation record today, despite it only being April.
Wall to wall across virtually the entire country, and already 9.5gw just under an hour before peak insolation. Yesterday peaked around 10.7 I think.
I’m in danger of a sunburned nose in a place not usually noted for such detriments (and more prosaic than Bokhara).
Are you on top of the Usher Hall? How lovely.
Right coast but a bit further north, Aberdeen Art Gallery. Still a sentimental favourite after all those years, and its newish rooftop cafe a real boon in weather like this.
Oh dear, really should have known that, I've been on that roof. Time for glasses.
Have we done the actual calculation used to come up with these tariff levels?
(Apols if it is a repost.)
Here’s what the White House and its crack team of trade investigators seems to have done: Take the US’s goods trade deficit with any particular country, and divide it by the total amount of goods imported from that country. Cut that percentage in half, and there’s the US’s “reciprocal” tariff rate.
We can confirm this fits* the numbers for the first 24 countries listed, which we checked by hand because we could hardly believe it and also because we refuse to use AI for anything. Kudos to @orthonormalist and James Surowiecki, who both put it together, more or less.
Let’s look at Bangladesh as an example. The US imported $8.4bn of goods from Bangladesh in 2024, giving it a $6.2bn trade deficit with the country. 6.2 divided by 8.4 is 0.738.
And what do you know? The White House says that the country has “charged” 74 per cent “tariffs” against the US, “including currency manipulation and trade barriers”. https://archive.is/vEgsp#selection-2183.0-2209.81
(The USA's core problem is that Mr Chump is, in practice, a f*ckwit, who has surrounded himself with mushrooms so there's no one to save him from himself. But the entire world knows this - like the Pobble who has no toes:
The Chump with no grey cells Had once as many as we; When they said, 'Some day you may lose them all;'-- He replied, -- 'Fish fiddle de-dee!')
Starmer looks pretty stupid today. He will be seen by voters and the EU as a 'Judas' and in the US and the wider world as Trumps poodle.
We are prepared to break ranks with the EU who we do 10x as much trade with for a pointless pat on the head from Donald.
Historically the role of the quisling is one that lives in the memory for a long time. We have been asked to choose between our nearest and dearest or Trump and his clown show and we've gone for the clown show.
They say Starmer's a lucky general and they're right. If he had any sensible opposition he'd be out on his ear
You shouldn't underestimate how much trade we do with the US:
Top 10 UK export markets for goods and services in 20231
1 United States - £179.4bn - 21.2% of total 2 Germany - £59.4bn - 7.0% 3 Ireland - £54.0bn - 6.4% 4 Netherlands - £52.2bn - 6.2% 5 France - £45.4bn - 5.4%
So the EU is a lot more important than the US. Thanks for confirming.
And we have a comprehensive zero tariff, zero quota trade agreement with the EU along with reduced tariffs from USA too.
Win/win.
Yet, for some reason, there are loads of British producers who now refuse to sell to the EU, or can't tell you how much the customs officials will charge you for your order when it arrives.
One British company selling to the EU did refund me the customs charge I had to pay, but they said they couldn't pay it in advance because the system was so complicated.
You might, of course, believe that the cost of increased trade friction is worth it, but that doesn't mean the cost doesn't exist. And it annoys me not to be able to buy goods from Britain that I would like.
The subject of trade frictions with the EU is an interesting one, despite having nothing to do with the current topic.
It is understood, and understandable, that the EU aren't going to give us frictionless trade any more. However, I think it was and is down to our own Government to take steps to ameliorate these issues.
We had a transition period - did we use it to take every possible measure to ensure British exporters were ready for the new requirements? OK, if they want a biography for every whelk, how do we deliver that? Is there a digital solution? Could we use QR codes? Is Ai now a solution? We should have aimed at becoming a regulation-meeting superpower ‐ which would also have helped companies get ready to export elsewhere.
Failing those changes, if other issues lay with deliberate or just happenstantial obstructionism on the part of EU customs officials, how could we have supported them? We seem OK with vainly chucking hundreds of millions at the French to fail to deal with boat people. How about buying French customs officials new equipment to speed their import processes?
Failing ALL that, if it was still impossible for a few companies to export to the EU profitably, how did we/could we support those companies to find alternative markets - possibly by exporting elsewhere but more likely by displacing an import. This would seem particularly helpful in the case of British fish and British lamb ‐ neither of which we eat enough of within our national diet.
Instead, our authorities, in some cases wilfully in my view, especially in Scotland, just threw their hands up and offered hypocritical tea and sympathy.
So I don't accept that being an independent country is impossible due to EU trade frictions - indeed it is a return to the status quo. If you disagree, look at how saturated we are in Indian imports ‐ not just in textiles but in foods. They seem to manage and don't wish to join the EU to make their problems go away.
If you are taking something to the EU that you intend to bring back you are not exporting it. However quite reasonably the EU wants to ensure you really aren't exporting it (unlike when we were in the EU when this was not an issue). The same happens the other way. Now you may not think this is a big issue, but it is. Just about every exporter/importer is taking samples, or demo equipment, or stuff they need for construction or whatever across and it is a nightmare because although it will come back it might not come back in the same form. For example:
Motor racing teams - Stuff will be very different when it returns, eg tyres, cars, etc and there will be truckloads Musicians touring - Big vans full of stuff, that get broken, replaced, filed differently etc
Pre EU I spent at least an hour going through a carnet with french officials each time for just a car load of equipment for shows
A friend of mine who built stages for exhibitions and concerts etc in the UK and Europe packed up after Brexit as basically his European work had been removed. He just could not compete with EU companies with the added paperwork.
Again why don't you explain your expertise in these areas?
Once again I feel the need to reiterate that I didn't even mention customs issues, it was completely you - I have no idea why we're having this adventure into your brain.
All I can say is if we're limited to contributing to the debate only on issues where we have a professional background, I look forward to hearing from you a good deal less in future.
You literally started your post with 'The subject of trade frictions with the EU is an interesting one, despite having nothing to do with the current topic' and then talked about customs issues and how to solve them for the rest of your post that went on for several paragraphs. It was all your post was about. Do you not know what you typed?
I thought you might be interested in real life experiences relating to what you just typed and which had nothing to do with the previous conversation. Talk about completely misreading a post. Only my last very short sentence related to the previous discussion.
I wasn't even arguing with you are disagreeing with you. Just providing some info. Again talk about completely misreading a post.
With regard to only discussing stuff on which one has a professional background, obviously that is bonkers, everyone can talk about anything, although actually I do tend to post only about stuff I know about (or fun stuff), but I just don't get your reluctance to give anything away about yourself or was @Selebian right and you are Liz Truss. Come on what harm can it do. Give us some insight into your expertise? Are you an Economist, Doctor, Lawyer, Scientist, Business owner, work in Government? What harm can it do? It can do some good to know from what perspective you come from. We get nothing from you on that front.
THE OPERATION IS OVER! THE PATIENT LIVED, AND IS HEALING. THE PROGNOSIS IS THAT THE PATIENT WILL BE FAR STRONGER, BIGGER, BETTER, AND MORE RESILIENT THAN EVER BEFORE. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!
BOLDUAN: What is the White House reaction to global markets tumbling this morning and futures down sharply?
LEAVITT: To anyone on Wall Street this morning, I would say trust in President Trump. This is a president who is doubling down ... this is a national emergency
THE OPERATION IS OVER! THE PATIENT LIVED, AND IS HEALING. THE PROGNOSIS IS THAT THE PATIENT WILL BE FAR STRONGER, BIGGER, BETTER, AND MORE RESILIENT THAN EVER BEFORE. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!
THE OPERATION IS OVER! THE PATIENT LIVED, AND IS HEALING. THE PROGNOSIS IS THAT THE PATIENT WILL BE FAR STRONGER, BIGGER, BETTER, AND MORE RESILIENT THAN EVER BEFORE. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!
Have we done the actual calculation used to come up with these tariff levels?
(Apols if it is a repost.)
Here’s what the White House and its crack team of trade investigators seems to have done: Take the US’s goods trade deficit with any particular country, and divide it by the total amount of goods imported from that country. Cut that percentage in half, and there’s the US’s “reciprocal” tariff rate.
We can confirm this fits* the numbers for the first 24 countries listed, which we checked by hand because we could hardly believe it and also because we refuse to use AI for anything. Kudos to @orthonormalist and James Surowiecki, who both put it together, more or less.
Let’s look at Bangladesh as an example. The US imported $8.4bn of goods from Bangladesh in 2024, giving it a $6.2bn trade deficit with the country. 6.2 divided by 8.4 is 0.738.
And what do you know? The White House says that the country has “charged” 74 per cent “tariffs” against the US, “including currency manipulation and trade barriers”. https://archive.is/vEgsp#selection-2183.0-2209.81
(The USA's core problem is that Mr Chump is, in practice, a f*ckwit, who has surrounded himself with mushrooms so there's no one to save him from himself. But the entire world knows this - like the Pobble who has no toes:
The Chump with no grey cells Had once as many as we; When they said, 'Some day you may lose them all;'-- He replied, -- 'Fish fiddle de-dee!')
Which Bangladesh manufactured goods are likely to be produced int eh US as a result ?
TRUMP TARIFFS SET TO WIPE OUT NEARLY $2 TRILLION FROM US STOCKS
Roughly $1.7 trillion is set to be erased from the S&P 500 Index when trading opens Thursday amid worries that President Donald Trump’s sweeping new round of tariffs could plunge the economy into a recession.
About 3-4% off the top of my head. Which is yes. Although what actually happens during the trading day is more releavnt.
Even with that the S&P500 is higher than it was 12 months ago.
The short term reaction is irrelevant IMV, as it will be knee jerk, it is what happens when the dust settles that matters and many many people will make a lot of money trading the volatility.
I am happy to report that the greatest work of Islamic astronomy, Ulugh Beg’s Zij il-Sultani - an amazing “book of stars”…. is now kept in the Bodleian Library in Oxford, England
I reassured our Uzbek guide, Bobur, that this is the best place for it
I'm definitely visiting Uzbekistan in the next 12 months. Probably need a visa I assume.
No visa needed for Brits. The Uzbeks are really keen on tourism. They make it as easy as possible. No queue for passports either, and Tashkent is a small efficient airport near the city
It is one of the fastest smoothest entries to a foreign country I’ve ever experienced
The above is a paid for testimonial and should be disregarded.
Oh do shut the fuck up
An Air Uzbek return ticket from Heathrow-Tashkent at peak season (spring or autumn) is £650-£800
That’s not bad considering the distance
Once you are here prices are about 1/3 of Western Europe - or less. And that includes hotels and good restaurants. A hearty lunch for FOUR with a few beers costs about £50. The food is not amazing but it’s not terrible
The sights - Samarkand, Bukhara, Khiva, and all that goes with them - are outstanding. World class. Samarkand is like a kind of Islamic Florence
Given the cheapness of the destination (once you’ve bought the air ticket) you can have a unique life-long memorable holiday here for about the same price as a week or two in Portugal or Greece, but with far fewer tourists
You've sold it to me:
“Thy dawn, O Master of the world, thy dawn The hour the lilies open on the lawn The hour the grey wings pass beyond the mountains The hour of silence, when we hear the fountains The hour that dreams are brighter and winds colder The hour that young love wakes on a white shoulder O Master of the world, the Northern Dawn That hour, O Master shall be bright for thee Thy merchants chase the morning down the sea The braves who fight thy war unsheathe the sabre The slaves who work thy mines are lashed to labour For thee the waggons of the world are drawn— The ebony of night, the red of dawn!"
Basically for Trump to be correct, essentially everybody else who ever studied trade, business, economics, diplomacy, psychology, conflict and more has to be wrong, and not a little wrong but profoundly wrong.
To play Devil's Advocate for a minute, economic theory absolutely states that tariffs are harmful.
Economic theory states that all taxes are harmful, and tariffs are a tax.
Tariffs, like all taxes, create a deadweight welfare loss.
There are though many people who react with outrage at the idea of tariffs going up who nonetheless would support other taxes going up - whether that be income tax, national insurance, VAT or anything else. People who argue that the benefits from taxation outweigh the economic harm that taxes cause.
America has a tremendous budget deficit. It arguably needs to raise taxes to close the deficit, even if those taxes cause economic harm.
If a different tax had been raised by a different President of a different Party many of those objecting today would be supporting that and many of those today supporting it would be objecting.
The Senate is in the process of voting through a $3.5 trillion tax cut.
What this is about as much as anything else, is shifting the burden of taxation from the rich onto the middle class. Screwing the world economy is a by product.
The point being that Brexit was an economic disaster, and "only 10%" doesn't even begin to make up for it
No it wasn't Scott. Covid was an economic disaster. The Ukraine war was an economic disaster. Trumponomics might well be an economic disaster, Brexit was an invisible blip by comparison. My expectation is still that it will be a long-term positive, as I think there is a risk of the European economy going through some pretty turbulent times, but either way it is small beer compared to three other economic disasters that have happened since.
Seeing Brexit in isolation from the Trump tariffs, Covid and the Ukraine war makes no sense. Leaving the EU left us more exposed to the consequences of all three.
Hm. But I'd argue we dealt with Covid better than the EU - partly because of Brexit - and I'd argue that, partly as a result of Brexit, we were able to respond more decisively to Ukraine: had we still been a member of the EU, it would have been much more difficult to act unilaterally and any EU response would have been hindered by the anchor of Hungary (and then Slovakia). And we're surely in a better place to respond to Trumponomics outside the EU than in it?
Indeed.
Far from making us "exposed", Brexit has done what it was supposed to and made us more nimble and able to act independently.
It has also removed the EU security blanket and ensured fully accountability for the Government of the day. Of whom we've already evicted one and their replacement know they are fully accountable and can be evicted too.
Had we still been in the EU we'd be facing higher tariffs due to German exports and be expected to have a "unified" rather than individual response.
They should have put that on the side of the bus.
"In the event a lunatic starts a global trade war based on a ratio he copied from Wikipedia, massive trade friction with our nearest neighbours will be mitigated somewhat because our trade deficit on goods with the US will continue to be rubbish..."
Still better than anything Remain could have written by way of a persuasive argument...
The headline that would have persuaded me ( I didn't need persuading!) was "the EU are a bit corrupt and crap but nowhere near as bad as the shitshow that will transpire if we vote to leave".
That was the Remain campaign, wasn't it ?
As I recall the Remain campaign wasn't quite so upbeat.
If this is James O'Brien, can somebody tell him to start talking about the inaccessible Silvertown Tunnel disabled people bus !
Alternatively can he just shut up. His show is low rent rage bait where he gets inarticulate people to call up to just be condescending to them. Prick.
You have a whole raft of right wing commentators ( LBC has a shed load throughout the day, Ferrari, Swarbrick, Dale and Miraj) in the UK broadcast media, please don't deny us Centrist Dads our token centre-left winger. host.
Bad News: The cycle and mobility aid bus service proposal for the Silvertown Tunnel does not cope with normal mobility aids. Gah. Cockups continue. Is this being run by the goons of Network Rail?
Weirdly, aiui it does not even meet all the normal standards for TFL vehicles. Which is beyond nuts. As far as I can see there is only one ramp - so people who cannot turn round on board have to reverse off, down the ramp. And it can't "kneel" and extend the ramp at the same time, so it's steeper than necessary.
More encouraging. The story of a chap who has a rare (20 people worldwide) condition called MDP Syndrome, who is due a double amputation, and doing a "Goodbye Legs" sponsored ride.
His mobility aids are a Brompton and a Clip-on E-cycle which goes on his manual wheelchair. The latter cost £3-5k each and need to be on motability. Worth a read.
Cheeky question as I've just realised you might be a fount of knowledge here - I have some colleagues trying to recruit for a study of children and young people with disabilities and their mobility needs - do Wheels for Wellbeing have much contact with that younger group? Or do you know of other organisations that do?
They're looking to interview young people (age 8-18) and also parents (of children any age up to 18) on experiences and difficulties with mobility, so need charity contacts for recruitment via social media, mailing lists etc. They're aware of Newlife and LimbBo, though I don't think they've had any luck getting in touch with the latter.
They can probably help. Here are a few details.
1 - No problem; attention and education are both reasons why I try and post slightly specialist views on general forums such as PB.
2 - They should know, or will know who to ask. They do deal with children. Contacts: 020 7346 8482 info@wheelsforwellbeing.org.uk 336 Brixton Road, London, SW9 7AA https://wheelsforwellbeing.org.uk/
@wheelsforwellbeing.org.uk or @tandemkate on Bsky. (Kate Ball is policy/campaigning and based in Derby, but is also a mum of 4, 2 of whom are disabled. W4W generally have staff who are disabled, and the senior staff are mainly a "Monstrous Regiment of Women" (c) John Knox, which is cool.)
If this is James O'Brien, can somebody tell him to start talking about the inaccessible Silvertown Tunnel disabled people bus !
Alternatively can he just shut up. His show is low rent rage bait where he gets inarticulate people to call up to just be condescending to them. Prick.
You have a whole raft of right wing commentators ( LBC has a shed load throughout the day, Ferrari, Swarbrick and Dale) in the UK broadcast media, please don't deny us Centrist Dads our token centre-left winger. host.
I’m complaining about the format of his show not his politics. 🙄
Bad News: The cycle and mobility aid bus service proposal for the Silvertown Tunnel does not cope with normal mobility aids. Gah. Cockups continue. Is this being run by the goons of Network Rail?
Weirdly, aiui it does not even meet all the normal standards for TFL vehicles. Which is beyond nuts. As far as I can see there is only one ramp - so people who cannot turn round on board have to reverse off, down the ramp. And it can't "kneel" and extend the ramp at the same time, so it's steeper than necessary.
More encouraging. The story of a chap who has a rare (20 people worldwide) condition called MDP Syndrome, who is due a double amputation, and doing a "Goodbye Legs" sponsored ride.
His mobility aids are a Brompton and a Clip-on E-cycle which goes on his manual wheelchair. The latter cost £3-5k each and need to be on motability. Worth a read.
Cheeky question as I've just realised you might be a fount of knowledge here - I have some colleagues trying to recruit for a study of children and young people with disabilities and their mobility needs - do Wheels for Wellbeing have much contact with that younger group? Or do you know of other organisations that do?
They're looking to interview young people (age 8-18) and also parents (of children any age up to 18) on experiences and difficulties with mobility, so need charity contacts for recruitment via social media, mailing lists etc. They're aware of Newlife and LimbBo, though I don't think they've had any luck getting in touch with the latter.
They can probably help. Here are a few details.
1 - No problem; attention and education are both reasons why I try and post slightly specialist views on general forums such as PB.
2 - They should know, or will know who to ask. They do deal with children. Contacts: 020 7346 8482 info@wheelsforwellbeing.org.uk 336 Brixton Road, London, SW9 7AA https://wheelsforwellbeing.org.uk/
@wheelsforwellbeing.org.uk or @tandemkate on Bsky. (Kate Ball is policy/campaigning and based in Derby, but is also a mum of 4, 2 of whom are disabled. W4W generally have staff who are disabled, and the senior staff are mainly a "Monstrous Regiment of Women" (c) John Knox, which is cool.)
Starmer looks pretty stupid today. He will be seen by voters and the EU as a 'Judas' and in the US and the wider world as Trumps poodle.
We are prepared to break ranks with the EU who we do 10x as much trade with for a pointless pat on the head from Donald.
Historically the role of the quisling is one that lives in the memory for a long time. We have been asked to choose between our nearest and dearest or Trump and his clown show and we've gone for the clown show.
They say Starmer's a lucky general and they're right. If he had any sensible opposition he'd be out on his ear
Try and stay calm, Roger.
But if you really want to panic, I'd consider withdrawing your millions and hiding it all under the floorboards of your mansions...
They just assumed no-one could be that stupid and it was just another one of his fantasies.
The issue was that it was so stupid no one sane thought it would be implemented as someone would stop it.
Meanwhile regardless of the economic issues it shows that Trump isn’t bright and that the USA needs to be treated with kid gloves as you quietly separate yourself from them
If this is James O'Brien, can somebody tell him to start talking about the inaccessible Silvertown Tunnel disabled people bus !
Alternatively can he just shut up. His show is low rent rage bait where he gets inarticulate people to call up to just be condescending to them. Prick.
You have a whole raft of right wing commentators ( LBC has a shed load throughout the day, Ferrari, Swarbrick and Dale) in the UK broadcast media, please don't deny us Centrist Dads our token centre-left winger. host.
I’m complaining about the format of his show not his politics. 🙄
Fair enough, I'm awarding you a Ray Liotta.
I'd rather listen to a three hour O' Brexit monologue than his Idiot's Corner callers. I quite like Mystery Hour too.
But he doubtless lurks on PB and snaffles our ideas.
There's an Electoral Calculus MRP poll, partially reported as:
Reform 227 seats, Labour 180 seats Conservative 130 seats.
Despite the criticisms, on current polling, Kemi would be a part of the government, either through a Con/Lab Grand Coalition, or a Con/Reform coalition.
@cfishman Here's the thing that might happen with Trump's tariffs.
It's not 1893. It's not 1933.
We—the United States—have spent 50 years creating a web of global trade, an interwoven global economy.
Now, Trump is using garden shears to cut the US out of that network.
2/ We've been the indispensable trade partner—the US is 26% of global GDP, and a great place to sell your stuff. We have well-off consumers with plenty of disposable income.
But if Trump is unbending, the world could simply comply—and trade among themselves.
3/ We are 26% of the global market. But that means 74% of the global market is out there without us.
Including all of the EU, whose unified economy is almost the size of the US, with similar consumers. And the Chinese economy.
The world will be sad to see us go...
4/ But they could, in the short- to medium-term, just trade around us.
We would be ceding the global economic stage.
Ceding economic influence. Cultural influence. Leadership. Leverage.
What could have been a 2nd 'American Century' could quickly become a 'Chinese Century.'
5/ Far from ushering in a golden age of American revival, this could be the moment the US began sliding into economic isolation, diplomatic isolation, economic irrelevance.
We're a huge, vital market.
But how much tumult, confusion & unpredictability can a nation take?
Starmer looks pretty stupid today. He will be seen by voters and the EU as a 'Judas' and in the US and the wider world as Trumps poodle.
We are prepared to break ranks with the EU who we do 10x as much trade with for a pointless pat on the head from Donald.
Historically the role of the quisling is one that lives in the memory for a long time. We have been asked to choose between our nearest and dearest or Trump and his clown show and we've gone for the clown show.
They say Starmer's a lucky general and they're right. If he had any sensible opposition he'd be out on his ear
Try and stay calm, Roger.
But if you really want to panic, I'd consider withdrawing your millions and hiding it all under the floorboards of your mansions...
Roger is right though. Starmer has had a shocker in the last 24 hours. Not quite Reeves Select Committee levels of ineptitude, but close. I am starting to channel my inner @BJO. Is Burnham available?
There's an Electoral Calculus MRP poll, partially reported as:
Reform 227 seats, Labour 180 seats Conservative 130 seats.
Despite the criticisms, on current polling, Kemi would be a part of the government, either through a Con/Lab Grand Coalition, or a Con/Reform coalition.
That's a comfortable RefCon majority.
Nigel keeping his head down over Trump tariffs whilst Starmer and Badenoch put their feet in their mouths.
I am happy to report that the greatest work of Islamic astronomy, Ulugh Beg’s Zij il-Sultani - an amazing “book of stars”…. is now kept in the Bodleian Library in Oxford, England
I reassured our Uzbek guide, Bobur, that this is the best place for it
I'm definitely visiting Uzbekistan in the next 12 months. Probably need a visa I assume.
No visa needed for Brits. The Uzbeks are really keen on tourism. They make it as easy as possible. No queue for passports either, and Tashkent is a small efficient airport near the city
It is one of the fastest smoothest entries to a foreign country I’ve ever experienced
The above is a paid for testimonial and should be disregarded.
Oh do shut the fuck up
An Air Uzbek return ticket from Heathrow-Tashkent at peak season (spring or autumn) is £650-£800
That’s not bad considering the distance
Once you are here prices are about 1/3 of Western Europe - or less. And that includes hotels and good restaurants. A hearty lunch for FOUR with a few beers costs about £50. The food is not amazing but it’s not terrible
The sights - Samarkand, Bukhara, Khiva, and all that goes with them - are outstanding. World class. Samarkand is like a kind of Islamic Florence
Given the cheapness of the destination (once you’ve bought the air ticket) you can have a unique life-long memorable holiday here for about the same price as a week or two in Portugal or Greece, but with far fewer tourists
You mention lunch with beers - I take it it’s quite relaxed re booze? What’s the nightlife like?
Pretty relaxed re booze, certainly in the major destinations - Samarkand, Bukhara. But some restaurants don’t serve it - and yet when you ask they will nip to the shop next door and buy beers. They want the custom
Don’t expect high end cocktails outside Tashkent or five star hotels in Samarkand
Nightlife does exist - bars, tea houses, general urban life (esp when the days are so hot everyone lives after dusk). But you’re not going to meet sexy Uzbek girls in a nightclub, or if you do bring folding money
In my pro opinion this is an incredible destination right now - given the mix of superb sights and lack of crime and notable cheapness. And ease of getting around on high speed trains
And I certainly do not say this as advertorial. I’ve just come from Uruguay which was fun but there’s no way I’d recommend it unless you’ve been everywhere else
Brexit cost the UK economy 10 times as much as 'only having 10% tariffs instead of 20%' saves
There is no doubt this is a positive for Brexit and certainly will make the case to rejoin much harder to make
However, there is a real opportunity for an exciting and new arrangement with countries across the globe coming together in a new and wider security and trading association
The question to be asked is are today's politicians and leaders capable of delivering such a opportunity?
How could anyone possibly think this is a brexit benefit, bit like you only getting one leg cut off and saying it was beneficial as I have one left. madness, almost as crazy as Trumpitis.
In the land of the blind the one eyed man is king.
It'd be better to not have any tariffs, but since they're happening whether we like it or not, 10% is absolutely better than 20%.
Indeed it gives us a competitive advantage.
they walk our streets, how can people like you be so dumb and survive.
You're the dumb one if you think that suffering double the harm is better than half the harm, just because you'd prefer no harm.
I'd prefer not to get injured, but if I am hurt I'd rather lose one pint of blood than two. That doesn't mean I'm eager to lose a pint of blood any time soon, but if something were to happen outside my control, I'd prefer a lesser harm than a greater one.
That's looking at trade with the USA in isolation - 10% advantage in £60 billion exports to USA versus the self imposed harm of non-tariff barriers on £360 billion of exports to the EU? That gave us big increases in inflation and food prices which we're still suffering from.
I am happy to report that the greatest work of Islamic astronomy, Ulugh Beg’s Zij il-Sultani - an amazing “book of stars”…. is now kept in the Bodleian Library in Oxford, England
I reassured our Uzbek guide, Bobur, that this is the best place for it
I'm definitely visiting Uzbekistan in the next 12 months. Probably need a visa I assume.
No visa needed for Brits. The Uzbeks are really keen on tourism. They make it as easy as possible. No queue for passports either, and Tashkent is a small efficient airport near the city
It is one of the fastest smoothest entries to a foreign country I’ve ever experienced
The above is a paid for testimonial and should be disregarded.
Oh do shut the fuck up
An Air Uzbek return ticket from Heathrow-Tashkent at peak season (spring or autumn) is £650-£800
That’s not bad considering the distance
Once you are here prices are about 1/3 of Western Europe - or less. And that includes hotels and good restaurants. A hearty lunch for FOUR with a few beers costs about £50. The food is not amazing but it’s not terrible
The sights - Samarkand, Bukhara, Khiva, and all that goes with them - are outstanding. World class. Samarkand is like a kind of Islamic Florence
Given the cheapness of the destination (once you’ve bought the air ticket) you can have a unique life-long memorable holiday here for about the same price as a week or two in Portugal or Greece, but with far fewer tourists
You mention lunch with beers - I take it it’s quite relaxed re booze? What’s the nightlife like?
Pretty relaxed re booze, certainly in the major destinations - Samarkand, Bukhara. But some restaurants don’t serve it - and yet when you ask they will nip to the shop next door and buy beers. They want the custom
Don’t expect high end cocktails outside Tashkent or five star hotels in Samarkand
Nightlife does exist - bars, tea houses, general urban life (esp when the days are so hot everyone lives after dusk). But you’re not going to meet sexy Uzbek girls in a nightclub, or if you do bring folding money
In my pro opinion this is an incredible destination right now - given the mix of superb sights and lack of crime and notable cheapness. And ease of getting around on high speed trains
And I certainly do not say this as advertorial. I’ve just come from Uruguay which was fun but there’s no way I’d recommend it unless you’ve been everywhere else
What's to stop companies looking to tariff shop given the arbitrary and vastly differing tariff levels?
EU companies set up UK plc and export goods for a marginal fee (let's say 0.5%), UK plc puts a stamp on the box as our value add and then exports to the US at 10% tariff rather than the EU's 20%?
Norfolk Island says thanks for the tip - but don't tell DJT, Pike!
There's an Electoral Calculus MRP poll, partially reported as:
Reform 227 seats, Labour 180 seats Conservative 130 seats.
Despite the criticisms, on current polling, Kemi would be a part of the government, either through a Con/Lab Grand Coalition, or a Con/Reform coalition.
That's a comfortable RefCon majority.
Nigel keeping his head down over Trump tariffs whilst Starmer and Badenoch put their feet in their mouths.
What exactly would you (and Roger?) have Starmer say and do?
The administration claims tariffs will strengthen the U.S. economy and U.S. businesses but the world markets, composed of many millions of investors with money on the line, are quite definitively betting the opposite. Who do you believe?
There's an Electoral Calculus MRP poll, partially reported as:
Reform 227 seats, Labour 180 seats Conservative 130 seats.
Despite the criticisms, on current polling, Kemi would be a part of the government, either through a Con/Lab Grand Coalition, or a Con/Reform coalition.
That's a comfortable RefCon majority.
Nigel keeping his head down over Trump tariffs whilst Starmer and Badenoch put their feet in their mouths.
What exactly would you (and Roger?) have Starmer say and do?
Not equivocate like an idiot*. He's a rabbit in the headlights whilst Von Der Leyen and Carney have taken the bull by the horns. They are the new Leaders of the West while Starmer performs lapdog tricks for the smelly one.
@cfishman Here's the thing that might happen with Trump's tariffs.
It's not 1893. It's not 1933.
We—the United States—have spent 50 years creating a web of global trade, an interwoven global economy.
Now, Trump is using garden shears to cut the US out of that network.
2/ We've been the indispensable trade partner—the US is 26% of global GDP, and a great place to sell your stuff. We have well-off consumers with plenty of disposable income.
But if Trump is unbending, the world could simply comply—and trade among themselves.
3/ We are 26% of the global market. But that means 74% of the global market is out there without us.
Including all of the EU, whose unified economy is almost the size of the US, with similar consumers. And the Chinese economy.
The world will be sad to see us go...
4/ But they could, in the short- to medium-term, just trade around us.
We would be ceding the global economic stage.
Ceding economic influence. Cultural influence. Leadership. Leverage.
What could have been a 2nd 'American Century' could quickly become a 'Chinese Century.'
5/ Far from ushering in a golden age of American revival, this could be the moment the US began sliding into economic isolation, diplomatic isolation, economic irrelevance.
We're a huge, vital market.
But how much tumult, confusion & unpredictability can a nation take?
Does he really think that if Trump had lost the election, the economic trajectories of China and the USA were heralding another American century? Do you really think that?
The administration claims tariffs will strengthen the U.S. economy and U.S. businesses but the world markets, composed of many millions of investors with money on the line, are quite definitively betting the opposite. Who do you believe?
If Nike's profits depend on making cheaply and importing to the USA and tariffs disrupt that model, it's clear why it might affect the stock price of Nike, but not at all clear why that's bad for America.
China's IDR downgraded by Fitch. Is Russia the only country exempt from tariffs?
Russia is (according to someone in this thread) already tariffed at 35%.
I posted earlier that "column 2" countries - Russia, Belarus, Cuba and North Korea - already have tariffs of 35%, and are not included in the latest changes. But I think they have to pay the tariff in column 2 in the various documents here
There's an Electoral Calculus MRP poll, partially reported as:
Reform 227 seats, Labour 180 seats Conservative 130 seats.
Despite the criticisms, on current polling, Kemi would be a part of the government, either through a Con/Lab Grand Coalition, or a Con/Reform coalition.
That's a comfortable RefCon majority.
Nigel keeping his head down over Trump tariffs whilst Starmer and Badenoch put their feet in their mouths.
What exactly would you (and Roger?) have Starmer say and do?
Not equivocate like an idiot*. He's a rabbit in the headlights whilst Von Der Leyen and Carney have taken the bull by the horns. They are the new Leaders of the West while Starmer performs lapdog tricks for the smelly one.
* I may be proved wrong.
What have VDL and Carney actually achieved though?
You basically want Starmer to call a presser, look at the cameras and tell the Orange One to fuck off? That's fine, I understand the sentiment and it would make everyone feel better.
There's an Electoral Calculus MRP poll, partially reported as:
Reform 227 seats, Labour 180 seats Conservative 130 seats.
Despite the criticisms, on current polling, Kemi would be a part of the government, either through a Con/Lab Grand Coalition, or a Con/Reform coalition.
What on earth are the percentages leading to these figures...
There's an Electoral Calculus MRP poll, partially reported as:
Reform 227 seats, Labour 180 seats Conservative 130 seats.
Despite the criticisms, on current polling, Kemi would be a part of the government, either through a Con/Lab Grand Coalition, or a Con/Reform coalition.
That's a comfortable RefCon majority.
Nigel keeping his head down over Trump tariffs whilst Starmer and Badenoch put their feet in their mouths.
What exactly would you (and Roger?) have Starmer say and do?
Not equivocate like an idiot*. He's a rabbit in the headlights whilst Von Der Leyen and Carney have taken the bull by the horns. They are the new Leaders of the West while Starmer performs lapdog tricks for the smelly one.
* I may be proved wrong.
What have VDL and Carney actually achieved though?
You basically want Starmer to call a presser, look at the cameras and tell the Orange One to fuck off? That's fine, I understand the sentiment and it would make everyone feel better.
JPMorgan says Donald Trump’s tariffs represent “the largest tax increase since the Revenue Act of 1968” and could push the U.S. economy “perilously close to slipping into recession” by driving up inflation and crippling consumer spending.
Starmer looks pretty stupid today. He will be seen by voters and the EU as a 'Judas' and in the US and the wider world as Trumps poodle.
We are prepared to break ranks with the EU who we do 10x as much trade with for a pointless pat on the head from Donald.
Historically the role of the quisling is one that lives in the memory for a long time. We have been asked to choose between our nearest and dearest or Trump and his clown show and we've gone for the clown show.
They say Starmer's a lucky general and they're right. If he had any sensible opposition he'd be out on his ear
You shouldn't underestimate how much trade we do with the US:
Top 10 UK export markets for goods and services in 20231
1 United States - £179.4bn - 21.2% of total 2 Germany - £59.4bn - 7.0% 3 Ireland - £54.0bn - 6.4% 4 Netherlands - £52.2bn - 6.2% 5 France - £45.4bn - 5.4%
So the EU is a lot more important than the US. Thanks for confirming.
And we have a comprehensive zero tariff, zero quota trade agreement with the EU along with reduced tariffs from USA too.
Win/win.
Yet, for some reason, there are loads of British producers who now refuse to sell to the EU, or can't tell you how much the customs officials will charge you for your order when it arrives.
One British company selling to the EU did refund me the customs charge I had to pay, but they said they couldn't pay it in advance because the system was so complicated.
You might, of course, believe that the cost of increased trade friction is worth it, but that doesn't mean the cost doesn't exist. And it annoys me not to be able to buy goods from Britain that I would like.
And that is entirely the voice of the politicians and bureaucrats in Brussels
The UK offered a deal with equivalence on regulation. In simple terms that means “the UK and the EU are both mature western economies that will broadly speaking have a similar approach. Unless by exception we will assume that anything regulated in the UK is acceptable in Europe as well and vice versa”
That would have eliminated all the paperwork and bureaucracy and maintained flexibility on both sides
The EU said Non! We must have dynamic alignment. Which meant that any time the EU changed their regulations the UK would have to follow suit or be blocked from the single market immediately.
That is clearly unacceptable to a newly independent state.
This really could all be easily solved with equivalence
There's an Electoral Calculus MRP poll, partially reported as:
Reform 227 seats, Labour 180 seats Conservative 130 seats.
Despite the criticisms, on current polling, Kemi would be a part of the government, either through a Con/Lab Grand Coalition, or a Con/Reform coalition.
What on earth are the percentages leading to these figures...
There's an Electoral Calculus MRP poll, partially reported as:
Reform 227 seats, Labour 180 seats Conservative 130 seats.
Despite the criticisms, on current polling, Kemi would be a part of the government, either through a Con/Lab Grand Coalition, or a Con/Reform coalition.
That's a comfortable RefCon majority.
Nigel keeping his head down over Trump tariffs whilst Starmer and Badenoch put their feet in their mouths.
What exactly would you (and Roger?) have Starmer say and do?
Not equivocate like an idiot*. He's a rabbit in the headlights whilst Von Der Leyen and Carney have taken the bull by the horns. They are the new Leaders of the West while Starmer performs lapdog tricks for the smelly one.
* I may be proved wrong.
Why is politics some sort of beauty parade over who 'leads the West' for you? It is an utterly facile and corrosive view of statecraft.
Give me a Swiss style state any day, where you never hear about them in the news, but they just keep going being democratic and getting comparatively richer as everyone else shits the bed trying to 'lead the West'.
Brexit cost the UK economy 10 times as much as 'only having 10% tariffs instead of 20%' saves
There is no doubt this is a positive for Brexit and certainly will make the case to rejoin much harder to make
However, there is a real opportunity for an exciting and new arrangement with countries across the globe coming together in a new and wider security and trading association
The question to be asked is are today's politicians and leaders capable of delivering such a opportunity?
How could anyone possibly think this is a brexit benefit, bit like you only getting one leg cut off and saying it was beneficial as I have one left. madness, almost as crazy as Trumpitis.
In the land of the blind the one eyed man is king.
It'd be better to not have any tariffs, but since they're happening whether we like it or not, 10% is absolutely better than 20%.
Indeed it gives us a competitive advantage.
they walk our streets, how can people like you be so dumb and survive.
You're the dumb one if you think that suffering double the harm is better than half the harm, just because you'd prefer no harm.
I'd prefer not to get injured, but if I am hurt I'd rather lose one pint of blood than two. That doesn't mean I'm eager to lose a pint of blood any time soon, but if something were to happen outside my control, I'd prefer a lesser harm than a greater one.
That's looking at trade with the USA in isolation - 10% advantage in £60 billion exports to USA versus the self imposed harm of non-tariff barriers on £360 billion of exports to the EU? That gave us big increases in inflation and food prices which we're still suffering from.
What harm? What suffering?
We've grown at a comparable rate to the Euro Area and we have had a comparable level of inflation to them too.
Inflation spiked globally due to Covid and the Ukraine War, not Brexit.
There's an Electoral Calculus MRP poll, partially reported as:
Reform 227 seats, Labour 180 seats Conservative 130 seats.
Despite the criticisms, on current polling, Kemi would be a part of the government, either through a Con/Lab Grand Coalition, or a Con/Reform coalition.
She should probably ask Ed Miliband and Jeremy Corbyn for tips, on how to deal with such an exciting predicted future.
There's an Electoral Calculus MRP poll, partially reported as:
Reform 227 seats, Labour 180 seats Conservative 130 seats.
Despite the criticisms, on current polling, Kemi would be a part of the government, either through a Con/Lab Grand Coalition, or a Con/Reform coalition.
That's a comfortable RefCon majority.
Nigel keeping his head down over Trump tariffs whilst Starmer and Badenoch put their feet in their mouths.
What exactly would you (and Roger?) have Starmer say and do?
Not equivocate like an idiot*. He's a rabbit in the headlights whilst Von Der Leyen and Carney have taken the bull by the horns. They are the new Leaders of the West while Starmer performs lapdog tricks for the smelly one.
* I may be proved wrong.
Why is politics some sort of beauty parade over who 'leads the West' for you? It is an utterly facile and corrosive view of statecraft.
Give me a Swiss style state any day, where you never hear about them in the news, but they just keep going being democratic and getting comparatively richer as everyone else shits the bed trying to 'lead the West'.
NEW: In Oval Office meeting yesterday, Laura Loomer presented the president with a list of NSC staff she said were disloyal and should be fired. Mike Waltz was there defending his team.
@Leon If I went to Uzbekistan, for say, eight days, would you advise doing all of Tashkent, Bukhara, Samarkand, and Khiva, or sticking to one or two cities?
NEW YORK (AP) — Dow drops 1,150 points as US stocks see the biggest declines in a global sell-off following Trump's latest tariff volley.
The left talk the talk about inequality and asset wealth, but Trump walks the walk.
You think this is going to harm the wealthy? This will just hit ordinary people's pension savings and investments as their investment funds react slower and will be on the downside of the trading. Then there'll be job cuts and suppressed wages as companies batten down the hatches to try and survive.
Barrister working for Letby says Letby is innocent.
As increasingly do a plethora of medical experts who are not working for Letby.
There are enough question marks to warrant serious review of the case now. I would like that to be done with an open mind, which it does not seem you have.
@cfishman Here's the thing that might happen with Trump's tariffs.
It's not 1893. It's not 1933.
We—the United States—have spent 50 years creating a web of global trade, an interwoven global economy.
Now, Trump is using garden shears to cut the US out of that network.
2/ We've been the indispensable trade partner—the US is 26% of global GDP, and a great place to sell your stuff. We have well-off consumers with plenty of disposable income.
But if Trump is unbending, the world could simply comply—and trade among themselves.
3/ We are 26% of the global market. But that means 74% of the global market is out there without us.
Including all of the EU, whose unified economy is almost the size of the US, with similar consumers. And the Chinese economy.
The world will be sad to see us go...
4/ But they could, in the short- to medium-term, just trade around us.
We would be ceding the global economic stage.
Ceding economic influence. Cultural influence. Leadership. Leverage.
What could have been a 2nd 'American Century' could quickly become a 'Chinese Century.'
5/ Far from ushering in a golden age of American revival, this could be the moment the US began sliding into economic isolation, diplomatic isolation, economic irrelevance.
We're a huge, vital market.
But how much tumult, confusion & unpredictability can a nation take?
Worth remembering that the USA is a lot less than 26% of global trade. (Partly because the US is such a big economy).
eg The US is the largest export market for Germany, but that still only accounts for about 10% of German exports. It's a lot less than Germany exports to the Netherlands plus Poland.
@cfishman Here's the thing that might happen with Trump's tariffs.
It's not 1893. It's not 1933.
We—the United States—have spent 50 years creating a web of global trade, an interwoven global economy.
Now, Trump is using garden shears to cut the US out of that network.
2/ We've been the indispensable trade partner—the US is 26% of global GDP, and a great place to sell your stuff. We have well-off consumers with plenty of disposable income.
But if Trump is unbending, the world could simply comply—and trade among themselves.
3/ We are 26% of the global market. But that means 74% of the global market is out there without us.
Including all of the EU, whose unified economy is almost the size of the US, with similar consumers. And the Chinese economy.
The world will be sad to see us go...
4/ But they could, in the short- to medium-term, just trade around us.
We would be ceding the global economic stage.
Ceding economic influence. Cultural influence. Leadership. Leverage.
What could have been a 2nd 'American Century' could quickly become a 'Chinese Century.'
5/ Far from ushering in a golden age of American revival, this could be the moment the US began sliding into economic isolation, diplomatic isolation, economic irrelevance.
We're a huge, vital market.
But how much tumult, confusion & unpredictability can a nation take?
Comments
(Apols if it is a repost.)
Here’s what the White House and its crack team of trade investigators seems to have done: Take the US’s goods trade deficit with any particular country, and divide it by the total amount of goods imported from that country. Cut that percentage in half, and there’s the US’s “reciprocal” tariff rate.
We can confirm this fits* the numbers for the first 24 countries listed, which we checked by hand because we could hardly believe it and also because we refuse to use AI for anything. Kudos to @orthonormalist and James Surowiecki, who both put it together, more or less.
Let’s look at Bangladesh as an example. The US imported $8.4bn of goods from Bangladesh in 2024, giving it a $6.2bn trade deficit with the country. 6.2 divided by 8.4 is 0.738.
And what do you know? The White House says that the country has “charged” 74 per cent “tariffs” against the US, “including currency manipulation and trade barriers”.
https://archive.is/vEgsp#selection-2183.0-2209.81
(The USA's core problem is that Mr Chump is, in practice, a f*ckwit, who has surrounded himself with mushrooms so there's no one to save him from himself. But the entire world knows this - like the Pobble who has no toes:
The Chump with no grey cells
Had once as many as we;
When they said, 'Some day you may lose them all;'--
He replied, -- 'Fish fiddle de-dee!')
TRUMP TARIFFS SET TO WIPE OUT NEARLY $2 TRILLION FROM US STOCKS
Roughly $1.7 trillion is set to be erased from the S&P 500 Index when trading opens Thursday amid worries that President Donald Trump’s sweeping new round of tariffs could plunge the economy into a recession.
https://x.com/DeItaone/status/1907773519334719823
A couple of doublings of panel area, and we really will be wondering what to do with all this cheap energy.
SkyBet.
Premier League.
Dual Forecast: Liverpool & Nottingham Forest both to finish top 2 - 50/1
Straight Forecast: Liverpool 1st, Nottingham Forest 2nd - 40/1
Ignoring that the latter is a subset of the former so should be a longer price, these prices very much do not seem consistent with Nottingham Forest to come 2nd of about 12/1... which is pretty much what they are.
DYOR.
But Trump's approach to economics is almost as wrong as Erdoğan's. Erdoğan eventually gave in to economic theory. Will Trump?
THE OPERATION IS OVER! THE PATIENT LIVED, AND IS HEALING. THE PROGNOSIS IS THAT THE PATIENT WILL BE FAR STRONGER, BIGGER, BETTER, AND MORE RESILIENT THAN EVER BEFORE. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!
What this is about as much as anything else, is shifting the burden of taxation from the rich onto the middle class.
Screwing the world economy is a by product.
https://x.com/BBCNewsPR/status/1907776084722016319
I thought you might be interested in real life experiences relating to what you just typed and which had nothing to do with the previous conversation. Talk about completely misreading a post. Only my last very short sentence related to the previous discussion.
I wasn't even arguing with you are disagreeing with you. Just providing some info. Again talk about completely misreading a post.
With regard to only discussing stuff on which one has a professional background, obviously that is bonkers, everyone can talk about anything, although actually I do tend to post only about stuff I know about (or fun stuff), but I just don't get your reluctance to give anything away about yourself or was @Selebian right and you are Liz Truss. Come on what harm can it do. Give us some insight into your expertise? Are you an Economist, Doctor, Lawyer, Scientist, Business owner, work in Government? What harm can it do? It can do some good to know from what perspective you come from. We get nothing from you on that front.
@atrupar.com
BOLDUAN: What is the White House reaction to global markets tumbling this morning and futures down sharply?
LEAVITT: To anyone on Wall Street this morning, I would say trust in President Trump. This is a president who is doubling down ... this is a national emergency
https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3llvwt6s2wl25
The short term reaction is irrelevant IMV, as it will be knee jerk, it is what happens when the dust settles that matters and many many people will make a lot of money trading the volatility.
What are you saying? "She's not obviously a Tory..."
“Thy dawn, O Master of the world, thy dawn
The hour the lilies open on the lawn
The hour the grey wings pass beyond the mountains
The hour of silence, when we hear the fountains
The hour that dreams are brighter and winds colder
The hour that young love wakes on a white shoulder
O Master of the world, the Northern Dawn
That hour, O Master shall be bright for thee
Thy merchants chase the morning down the sea
The braves who fight thy war unsheathe the sabre
The slaves who work thy mines are lashed to labour
For thee the waggons of the world are drawn— The ebony of night, the red of dawn!"
Hence the Devil's Advocate comment.
Is Russia the only country exempt from tariffs?
1 - No problem; attention and education are both reasons why I try and post slightly specialist views on general forums such as PB.
2 - They should know, or will know who to ask. They do deal with children. Contacts: 020 7346 8482 info@wheelsforwellbeing.org.uk 336 Brixton Road, London, SW9 7AA
https://wheelsforwellbeing.org.uk/
@wheelsforwellbeing.org.uk or @tandemkate on Bsky. (Kate Ball is policy/campaigning and based in Derby, but is also a mum of 4, 2 of whom are disabled. W4W generally have staff who are disabled, and the senior staff are mainly a "Monstrous Regiment of Women" (c) John Knox, which is cool.)
3 - They also have the "The Disabled Cycling Activists' Network, DCAN", which has about 100 activists in it. It's a Discord forum maintained for resources, support, ideas etc.
https://wheelsforwellbeing.org.uk/wheels-for-wellbeing-launch-the-disabled-cycling-activists-network-dcan/
4 - The larger Operational side does try out sessions for adapted cycles and mobility aids, also for children. Example: https://wheelsforwellbeing.org.uk/sessions-for-children/
I wonder what it is that attracts Trump to despots?
I’m complaining about the format of his show not his politics. 🙄
Turns out - happily - that it's an artwork to the Tate modern, not a legal fighting fund for Andrew
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cm24mpx1xveo
But if you really want to panic, I'd consider withdrawing your millions and hiding it all under the floorboards of your mansions...
Meanwhile regardless of the economic issues it shows that Trump isn’t bright and that the USA needs to be treated with kid gloves as you quietly separate yourself from them
I'd rather listen to a three hour O' Brexit monologue than his Idiot's Corner callers. I quite like Mystery Hour too.
But he doubtless lurks on PB and snaffles our ideas.
Reform 227 seats,
Labour 180 seats
Conservative 130 seats.
Despite the criticisms, on current polling, Kemi would be a part of the government, either through a Con/Lab Grand Coalition, or a Con/Reform coalition.
Here's the thing that might happen with Trump's tariffs.
It's not 1893. It's not 1933.
We—the United States—have spent 50 years creating a web of global trade, an interwoven global economy.
Now, Trump is using garden shears to cut the US out of that network.
2/ We've been the indispensable trade partner—the US is 26% of global GDP, and a great place to sell your stuff. We have well-off consumers with plenty of disposable income.
But if Trump is unbending, the world could simply comply—and trade among themselves.
3/ We are 26% of the global market. But that means 74% of the global market is out there without us.
Including all of the EU, whose unified economy is almost the size of the US, with similar consumers. And the Chinese economy.
The world will be sad to see us go...
4/ But they could, in the short- to medium-term, just trade around us.
We would be ceding the global economic stage.
Ceding economic influence. Cultural influence. Leadership. Leverage.
What could have been a 2nd 'American Century' could quickly become a 'Chinese Century.'
5/ Far from ushering in a golden age of American revival, this could be the moment the US began sliding into economic isolation, diplomatic isolation, economic irrelevance.
We're a huge, vital market.
But how much tumult, confusion & unpredictability can a nation take?
https://x.com/cfishman/status/1907573487004266958
Nigel keeping his head down over Trump tariffs whilst Starmer and Badenoch put their feet in their mouths.
Don’t expect high end cocktails outside Tashkent or five star hotels in Samarkand
Nightlife does exist - bars, tea houses, general urban life (esp when the days are so hot everyone lives after dusk). But you’re not going to meet sexy Uzbek girls in a nightclub, or if you do bring folding money
In my pro opinion this is an incredible destination right now - given the mix of superb sights and lack of crime and notable cheapness. And ease of getting around on high speed trains
And I certainly do not say this as advertorial. I’ve just come from Uruguay which was fun but there’s no way I’d recommend it unless you’ve been everywhere else
What exactly would you (and Roger?) have Starmer say and do?
The administration claims tariffs will strengthen the U.S. economy and U.S. businesses but the world markets, composed of many millions of investors with money on the line, are quite definitively betting the opposite. Who do you believe?
https://x.com/jimsciutto/status/1907785314610852276
* I may be proved wrong.
https://hts.usitc.gov/
So maybe there's no easy answer as they seem to vary mostly between 10% and 80%. Can't remember now where I found the 35% figure.
Using the formula used for other countries Russia should have a flat tariff of about 40%.
‘I have never seen so much evidence of innocence,’ says barrister delivering report from 21 experts to Criminal Cases Review Commission" (£)
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/04/03/letby-babies-died-from-poor-care-natural-causes-not-murder/
You basically want Starmer to call a presser, look at the cameras and tell the Orange One to fuck off? That's fine, I understand the sentiment and it would make everyone feel better.
And then what?
SYLICIPM
NEW YORK (AP) — Dow drops 1,150 points as US stocks see the biggest declines in a global sell-off following Trump's latest tariff volley.
@elwasson
NASDAQ falls 4.40% at the open
@RpsAgainstTrump
JPMorgan says Donald Trump’s tariffs represent “the largest tax increase since the Revenue Act of 1968” and could push the U.S. economy “perilously close to slipping into recession” by driving up inflation and crippling consumer spending.
The UK offered a deal with equivalence on regulation. In simple terms that means “the UK and the EU are both mature western economies that will broadly speaking have a similar approach. Unless by exception we will assume that anything regulated in the UK is acceptable in Europe as well and vice versa”
That would have eliminated all the paperwork and bureaucracy and maintained flexibility on both sides
The EU said Non! We must have dynamic alignment. Which meant that any time the EU changed their regulations the UK would have to follow suit or be blocked from the single market immediately.
That is clearly unacceptable to a newly independent state.
This really could all be easily solved with equivalence
Seems only fair.
Give me a Swiss style state any day, where you never hear about them in the news, but they just keep going being democratic and getting comparatively richer as everyone else shits the bed trying to 'lead the West'.
We've grown at a comparable rate to the Euro Area and we have had a comparable level of inflation to them too.
Inflation spiked globally due to Covid and the Ukraine War, not Brexit.
*APPLE SHARES FALL 8.5%, ERASING $255 BILLION IN VALUE
@maggieNYT
NEW: In Oval Office meeting yesterday, Laura Loomer presented the president with a list of NSC staff she said were disloyal and should be fired. Mike Waltz was there defending his team.
https://x.com/maggieNYT/status/1907790556387832142
This will just hit ordinary people's pension savings and investments as their investment funds react slower and will be on the downside of the trading. Then there'll be job cuts and suppressed wages as companies batten down the hatches to try and survive.
There are enough question marks to warrant serious review of the case now. I would like that to be done with an open mind, which it does not seem you have.
eg The US is the largest export market for Germany, but that still only accounts for about 10% of German exports. It's a lot less than Germany exports to the Netherlands plus Poland.
CNN: Stock market plummets
MSNBC: Stock market craters
Highlights for Children: Stock market down big
FOX News:
https://x.com/TheDailyShow/status/1907792153234887109