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Brits are not expecting the government to handle the tariffs well – politicalbetting.com

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  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,211
    Leon said:

    No visa needed for Brits. The Uzbeks are really keen on tourism. They make it as easy as possible. No queue for passports either, and Tashkent is a small efficient airport near the city

    It is one of the fastest smoothest entries to a foreign country I’ve ever experienced
    https://www.state.gov/reports/2023-country-reports-on-human-rights-practices/uzbekistan/
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,574
    edited April 3
    Have we done the actual calculation used to come up with these tariff levels?

    (Apols if it is a repost.)

    Here’s what the White House and its crack team of trade investigators seems to have done: Take the US’s goods trade deficit with any particular country, and divide it by the total amount of goods imported from that country. Cut that percentage in half, and there’s the US’s “reciprocal” tariff rate.

    We can confirm this fits* the numbers for the first 24 countries listed, which we checked by hand because we could hardly believe it and also because we refuse to use AI for anything. Kudos to @orthonormalist and James Surowiecki, who both put it together, more or less.

    Let’s look at Bangladesh as an example. The US imported $8.4bn of goods from Bangladesh in 2024, giving it a $6.2bn trade deficit with the country. 6.2 divided by 8.4 is 0.738.

    And what do you know? The White House says that the country has “charged” 74 per cent “tariffs” against the US, “including currency manipulation and trade barriers”.

    https://archive.is/vEgsp#selection-2183.0-2209.81

    (The USA's core problem is that Mr Chump is, in practice, a f*ckwit, who has surrounded himself with mushrooms so there's no one to save him from himself. But the entire world knows this - like the Pobble who has no toes:

    The Chump with no grey cells
    Had once as many as we;
    When they said, 'Some day you may lose them all;'--
    He replied, -- 'Fish fiddle de-dee!')
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,257
    TimS said:

    In slightly happier news I think we could get close to an all time solar generation record today, despite it only being April.

    Wall to wall across virtually the entire country, and already 9.5gw just under an hour before peak insolation. Yesterday peaked around 10.7 I think.

    I’m in danger of a sunburned nose in a place not usually noted for such detriments (and more prosaic than Bokhara).


  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,096

    Thank you
    It was part of the Profumo affair. MRD was replying to what has been described as the worst question ever in the history of cross-examination. The barrister was the Cambridge-educated lawyer James Burge, QC, who inspired Rumpole of the Bailey. MRD had also been a lover of Rachman, the notorious slum landlord, and the swindler Savundra. It was all go in the swinging sixties.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,751

    I’m in danger of a sunburned nose in a place not usually noted for such detriments (and more prosaic than Bokhara).


    Are you on top of the Usher Hall? How lovely.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,624
    Foxy said:

    Oil! I posted it first...

    https://bsky.app/profile/foxinsoxuk.bsky.social/post/3lluf326xak2d
    I was going to re-skeet that, but then I realised I might have to fly to the States soon...
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,536
    Scott_xP said:

    We're about to find out...

    https://x.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1907770021046006026
    ‘this post has been deleted’
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,536

    I’m in danger of a sunburned nose in a place not usually noted for such detriments (and more prosaic than Bokhara).


    Looks glorious. Having a tipple too ?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,053
    Taz said:

    ‘this post has been deleted’
    I would have posted the image, but my quota is full
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,053
    @DeItaone

    TRUMP TARIFFS SET TO WIPE OUT NEARLY $2 TRILLION FROM US STOCKS

    Roughly $1.7 trillion is set to be erased from the S&P 500 Index when trading opens Thursday amid worries that President Donald Trump’s sweeping new round of tariffs could plunge the economy into a recession.

    https://x.com/DeItaone/status/1907773519334719823
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,536
    Scott_xP said:

    I would have posted the image, but my quota is full
    What was the gist of what they were saying ?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,319
    edited April 3
    TimS said:

    In slightly happier news I think we could get close to an all time solar generation record today, despite it only being April.

    Wall to wall across virtually the entire country, and already 9.5gw just under an hour before peak insolation. Yesterday peaked around 10.7 I think.

    According to the NESO app, here was a record broken on Tuesday, peaking at 12.5 GW.

    A couple of doublings of panel area, and we really will be wondering what to do with all this cheap energy.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,053
    Taz said:

    What was the gist of what they were saying ?
    It was an image
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,291
    viewcode said:

    If anybody is wondering why the proposed new air fighter for the USA is called "F-47", the rumour is that it's because Trump II is the 47th POTUS.

    (facepalm)

    It's the same reason that HMS Queen Elizabeth was named thusly. To make it hard to cancel when the costs explode.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,257

    Are you on top of the Usher Hall? How lovely.
    Right coast but a bit further north, Aberdeen Art Gallery. Still a sentimental favourite after all those years, and its newish rooftop cafe a real boon in weather like this.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 856
    edited April 3
    Non Politics Betting Post


    SkyBet.

    Premier League.

    Dual Forecast: Liverpool & Nottingham Forest both to finish top 2 - 50/1
    Straight Forecast: Liverpool 1st, Nottingham Forest 2nd - 40/1

    Ignoring that the latter is a subset of the former so should be a longer price, these prices very much do not seem consistent with Nottingham Forest to come 2nd of about 12/1... which is pretty much what they are.

    DYOR.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,257
    Taz said:

    Looks glorious. Having a tipple too ?
    Just an Americano, I‘ll save the tippling for the evening..
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,624

    To play Devil's Advocate for a minute, economic theory absolutely states that tariffs are harmful.

    Economic theory states that all taxes are harmful, and tariffs are a tax.

    Tariffs, like all taxes, create a deadweight welfare loss.

    There are though many people who react with outrage at the idea of tariffs going up who nonetheless would support other taxes going up - whether that be income tax, national insurance, VAT or anything else. People who argue that the benefits from taxation outweigh the economic harm that taxes cause.

    America has a tremendous budget deficit. It arguably needs to raise taxes to close the deficit, even if those taxes cause economic harm.

    If a different tax had been raised by a different President of a different Party many of those objecting today would be supporting that and many of those today supporting it would be objecting.
    No. Economic theory states neither of those things. Economic theory is slightly more sophisticated.

    But Trump's approach to economics is almost as wrong as Erdoğan's. Erdoğan eventually gave in to economic theory. Will Trump?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,155
    Scott_xP said:

    @DeItaone

    TRUMP TARIFFS SET TO WIPE OUT NEARLY $2 TRILLION FROM US STOCKS

    Roughly $1.7 trillion is set to be erased from the S&P 500 Index when trading opens Thursday amid worries that President Donald Trump’s sweeping new round of tariffs could plunge the economy into a recession.

    https://x.com/DeItaone/status/1907773519334719823

    Is that a lot?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,760
    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1907773831336571319

    THE OPERATION IS OVER! THE PATIENT LIVED, AND IS HEALING. THE PROGNOSIS IS THAT THE PATIENT WILL BE FAR STRONGER, BIGGER, BETTER, AND MORE RESILIENT THAN EVER BEFORE. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,521

    To play Devil's Advocate for a minute, economic theory absolutely states that tariffs are harmful.

    Economic theory states that all taxes are harmful, and tariffs are a tax.

    Tariffs, like all taxes, create a deadweight welfare loss.

    There are though many people who react with outrage at the idea of tariffs going up who nonetheless would support other taxes going up - whether that be income tax, national insurance, VAT or anything else. People who argue that the benefits from taxation outweigh the economic harm that taxes cause.

    America has a tremendous budget deficit. It arguably needs to raise taxes to close the deficit, even if those taxes cause economic harm.

    If a different tax had been raised by a different President of a different Party many of those objecting today would be supporting that and many of those today supporting it would be objecting.
    The Senate is in the process of voting through a $3.5 trillion tax cut.

    What this is about as much as anything else, is shifting the burden of taxation from the rich onto the middle class.
    Screwing the world economy is a by product.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 856

    Is that a lot?
    About 3-4% off the top of my head. Which is yes. Although what actually happens during the trading day is more releavnt.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,751

    Right coast but a bit further north, Aberdeen Art Gallery. Still a sentimental favourite after all those years, and its newish rooftop cafe a real boon in weather like this.
    Oh dear, really should have known that, I've been on that roof. Time for glasses.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,624
    MattW said:

    Have we done the actual calculation used to come up with these tariff levels?

    (Apols if it is a repost.)

    Here’s what the White House and its crack team of trade investigators seems to have done: Take the US’s goods trade deficit with any particular country, and divide it by the total amount of goods imported from that country. Cut that percentage in half, and there’s the US’s “reciprocal” tariff rate.

    We can confirm this fits* the numbers for the first 24 countries listed, which we checked by hand because we could hardly believe it and also because we refuse to use AI for anything. Kudos to @orthonormalist and James Surowiecki, who both put it together, more or less.

    Let’s look at Bangladesh as an example. The US imported $8.4bn of goods from Bangladesh in 2024, giving it a $6.2bn trade deficit with the country. 6.2 divided by 8.4 is 0.738.

    And what do you know? The White House says that the country has “charged” 74 per cent “tariffs” against the US, “including currency manipulation and trade barriers”.

    https://archive.is/vEgsp#selection-2183.0-2209.81

    (The USA's core problem is that Mr Chump is, in practice, a f*ckwit, who has surrounded himself with mushrooms so there's no one to save him from himself. But the entire world knows this - like the Pobble who has no toes:

    The Chump with no grey cells
    Had once as many as we;
    When they said, 'Some day you may lose them all;'--
    He replied, -- 'Fish fiddle de-dee!')

    Pretty much confirmed by the White House that this is what they did: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c93gq72n7y1o
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,521
    Dura_Ace said:

    It's the same reason that HMS Queen Elizabeth was named thusly. To make it hard to cancel when the costs explode.
    Except in this case it might also have been part of the winning bid pitch.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,488

    Once again I feel the need to reiterate that I didn't even mention customs issues, it was completely you - I have no idea why we're having this adventure into your brain.

    All I can say is if we're limited to contributing to the debate only on issues where we have a professional background, I look forward to hearing from you a good deal less in future.
    You literally started your post with 'The subject of trade frictions with the EU is an interesting one, despite having nothing to do with the current topic' and then talked about customs issues and how to solve them for the rest of your post that went on for several paragraphs. It was all your post was about. Do you not know what you typed?

    I thought you might be interested in real life experiences relating to what you just typed and which had nothing to do with the previous conversation. Talk about completely misreading a post. Only my last very short sentence related to the previous discussion.

    I wasn't even arguing with you are disagreeing with you. Just providing some info. Again talk about completely misreading a post.

    With regard to only discussing stuff on which one has a professional background, obviously that is bonkers, everyone can talk about anything, although actually I do tend to post only about stuff I know about (or fun stuff), but I just don't get your reluctance to give anything away about yourself or was @Selebian right and you are Liz Truss. Come on what harm can it do. Give us some insight into your expertise? Are you an Economist, Doctor, Lawyer, Scientist, Business owner, work in Government? What harm can it do? It can do some good to know from what perspective you come from. We get nothing from you on that front.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,148

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1907773831336571319

    THE OPERATION IS OVER! THE PATIENT LIVED, AND IS HEALING. THE PROGNOSIS IS THAT THE PATIENT WILL BE FAR STRONGER, BIGGER, BETTER, AND MORE RESILIENT THAN EVER BEFORE. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!

    Trump: Making Depressions Great Again!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,053
    So much stupid...

    @atrupar.com‬

    BOLDUAN: What is the White House reaction to global markets tumbling this morning and futures down sharply?

    LEAVITT: To anyone on Wall Street this morning, I would say trust in President Trump. This is a president who is doubling down ... this is a national emergency

    https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3llvwt6s2wl25
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,202

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1907773831336571319

    THE OPERATION IS OVER! THE PATIENT LIVED, AND IS HEALING. THE PROGNOSIS IS THAT THE PATIENT WILL BE FAR STRONGER, BIGGER, BETTER, AND MORE RESILIENT THAN EVER BEFORE. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1907773831336571319

    THE OPERATION IS OVER! THE PATIENT LIVED, AND IS HEALING. THE PROGNOSIS IS THAT THE PATIENT WILL BE FAR STRONGER, BIGGER, BETTER, AND MORE RESILIENT THAN EVER BEFORE. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!

    MRDA!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,521
    MattW said:

    Have we done the actual calculation used to come up with these tariff levels?

    (Apols if it is a repost.)

    Here’s what the White House and its crack team of trade investigators seems to have done: Take the US’s goods trade deficit with any particular country, and divide it by the total amount of goods imported from that country. Cut that percentage in half, and there’s the US’s “reciprocal” tariff rate.

    We can confirm this fits* the numbers for the first 24 countries listed, which we checked by hand because we could hardly believe it and also because we refuse to use AI for anything. Kudos to @orthonormalist and James Surowiecki, who both put it together, more or less.

    Let’s look at Bangladesh as an example. The US imported $8.4bn of goods from Bangladesh in 2024, giving it a $6.2bn trade deficit with the country. 6.2 divided by 8.4 is 0.738.

    And what do you know? The White House says that the country has “charged” 74 per cent “tariffs” against the US, “including currency manipulation and trade barriers”.

    https://archive.is/vEgsp#selection-2183.0-2209.81

    (The USA's core problem is that Mr Chump is, in practice, a f*ckwit, who has surrounded himself with mushrooms so there's no one to save him from himself. But the entire world knows this - like the Pobble who has no toes:

    The Chump with no grey cells
    Had once as many as we;
    When they said, 'Some day you may lose them all;'--
    He replied, -- 'Fish fiddle de-dee!')

    Which Bangladesh manufactured goods are likely to be produced int eh US as a result ?
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,536

    About 3-4% off the top of my head. Which is yes. Although what actually happens during the trading day is more releavnt.
    Even with that the S&P500 is higher than it was 12 months ago.

    The short term reaction is irrelevant IMV, as it will be knee jerk, it is what happens when the dust settles that matters and many many people will make a lot of money trading the volatility.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,202
    edited April 3
    Scott_xP said:
    She's really, really good. How on earth that roaster Mason got the editor's gig after they binned Kuennsberg I will never know?

    What are you saying? "She's not obviously a Tory..."
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,465
    Leon said:

    Oh do shut the fuck up

    An Air Uzbek return ticket from Heathrow-Tashkent at peak season (spring or autumn) is £650-£800

    That’s not bad considering the distance

    Once you are here prices are about 1/3 of Western Europe - or less. And that includes hotels and good restaurants. A hearty lunch for FOUR with a few beers costs about £50. The food is not amazing but it’s not terrible

    The sights - Samarkand, Bukhara, Khiva, and all that goes with them - are outstanding. World class. Samarkand is like a kind of Islamic Florence

    Given the cheapness of the destination (once you’ve bought the air ticket) you can have a unique life-long memorable holiday here for about the same price as a week or two in Portugal or Greece, but with far fewer tourists
    You've sold it to me:

    “Thy dawn, O Master of the world, thy dawn
    The hour the lilies open on the lawn
    The hour the grey wings pass beyond the mountains
    The hour of silence, when we hear the fountains
    The hour that dreams are brighter and winds colder
    The hour that young love wakes on a white shoulder
    O Master of the world, the Northern Dawn
    That hour, O Master shall be bright for thee
    Thy merchants chase the morning down the sea
    The braves who fight thy war unsheathe the sabre
    The slaves who work thy mines are lashed to labour
    For thee the waggons of the world are drawn— The ebony of night, the red of dawn!"
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,317
    Nigelb said:

    The Senate is in the process of voting through a $3.5 trillion tax cut.

    What this is about as much as anything else, is shifting the burden of taxation from the rich onto the middle class.
    Screwing the world economy is a by product.
    I 100% agree with you.

    Hence the Devil's Advocate comment.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,053

    She's really, really good. How on earth that roaster Mason got the editor's gig after they binned Kuennsberg I will never know?

    What are you saying? "She's not obviously a Tory..."
    IIRC she turned it down at the time. Family/personal reasons
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,202
    Nigelb said:

    That was the Remain campaign, wasn't it ?
    As I recall the Remain campaign wasn't quite so upbeat.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,918
    China's IDR downgraded by Fitch.
    Is Russia the only country exempt from tariffs?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,446
    Scott_xP said:

    IIRC she turned it down at the time. Family/personal reasons
    That's my recollection.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,053
    dixiedean said:

    China's IDR downgraded by Fitch.
    Is Russia the only country exempt from tariffs?

    North Korea also
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,202
    edited April 3
    Taz said:

    Alternatively can he just shut up. His show is low rent rage bait where he gets inarticulate people to call up to just be condescending to them. Prick.
    You have a whole raft of right wing commentators ( LBC has a shed load throughout the day, Ferrari, Swarbrick, Dale and Miraj) in the UK broadcast media, please don't deny us Centrist Dads our token centre-left winger. host.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,574
    edited April 3
    Selebian said:

    Cheeky question as I've just realised you might be a fount of knowledge here - I have some colleagues trying to recruit for a study of children and young people with disabilities and their mobility needs - do Wheels for Wellbeing have much contact with that younger group? Or do you know of other organisations that do?

    They're looking to interview young people (age 8-18) and also parents (of children any age up to 18) on experiences and difficulties with mobility, so need charity contacts for recruitment via social media, mailing lists etc. They're aware of Newlife and LimbBo, though I don't think they've had any luck getting in touch with the latter.
    They can probably help. Here are a few details.

    1 - No problem; attention and education are both reasons why I try and post slightly specialist views on general forums such as PB.

    2 - They should know, or will know who to ask. They do deal with children. Contacts: 020 7346 8482 info@wheelsforwellbeing.org.uk 336 Brixton Road, London, SW9 7AA
    https://wheelsforwellbeing.org.uk/

    @wheelsforwellbeing.org.uk or @tandemkate on Bsky. (Kate Ball is policy/campaigning and based in Derby, but is also a mum of 4, 2 of whom are disabled. W4W generally have staff who are disabled, and the senior staff are mainly a "Monstrous Regiment of Women" (c) John Knox, which is cool.)

    3 - They also have the "The Disabled Cycling Activists' Network, DCAN", which has about 100 activists in it. It's a Discord forum maintained for resources, support, ideas etc.
    https://wheelsforwellbeing.org.uk/wheels-for-wellbeing-launch-the-disabled-cycling-activists-network-dcan/

    4 - The larger Operational side does try out sessions for adapted cycles and mobility aids, also for children. Example: https://wheelsforwellbeing.org.uk/sessions-for-children/
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,148
    Scott_xP said:

    North Korea also
    And Belarus.

    I wonder what it is that attracts Trump to despots?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,751
    dixiedean said:

    China's IDR downgraded by Fitch.
    Is Russia the only country exempt from tariffs?

    Russia is (according to someone in this thread) already tariffed at 35%.


  • TazTaz Posts: 17,536
    edited April 3

    You have a whole raft of right wing commentators ( LBC has a shed load throughout the day, Ferrari, Swarbrick and Dale) in the UK broadcast media, please don't deny us Centrist Dads our token centre-left winger. host.

    I’m complaining about the format of his show not his politics. 🙄
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,243
    MattW said:

    They can probably help. Here are a few details.

    1 - No problem; attention and education are both reasons why I try and post slightly specialist views on general forums such as PB.

    2 - They should know, or will know who to ask. They do deal with children. Contacts: 020 7346 8482 info@wheelsforwellbeing.org.uk 336 Brixton Road, London, SW9 7AA
    https://wheelsforwellbeing.org.uk/

    @wheelsforwellbeing.org.uk or @tandemkate on Bsky. (Kate Ball is policy/campaigning and based in Derby, but is also a mum of 4, 2 of whom are disabled. W4W generally have staff who are disabled, and the senior staff are mainly a "Monstrous Regiment of Women" (c) John Knox, which is cool.)

    3 - They also have the "The Disabled Cycling Activists' Network, DCAN", which has about 100 activists in it. It's a Discord forum maintained for resources, support, ideas etc.
    https://wheelsforwellbeing.org.uk/wheels-for-wellbeing-launch-the-disabled-cycling-activists-network-dcan/

    4 - The larger Operational side does try out sessions for adapted cycles and mobility aids, also for children. Example: https://wheelsforwellbeing.org.uk/sessions-for-children/
    Thanks, that's very helpful - I'll pass it on.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,202
    Scott_xP said:

    IIRC she turned it down at the time. Family/personal reasons

    That's my recollection.
    Shame, mind.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,243
    Ambiguous Beeb headline: "Tate receives 'transformational' gift from US donors"

    Turns out - happily - that it's an artwork to the Tate modern, not a legal fighting fund for Andrew

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cm24mpx1xveo
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,835
    edited April 3
    Roger said:

    Starmer looks pretty stupid today. He will be seen by voters and the EU as a 'Judas' and in the US and the wider world as Trumps poodle.

    We are prepared to break ranks with the EU who we do 10x as much trade with for a pointless pat on the head from Donald.

    Historically the role of the quisling is one that lives in the memory for a long time. We have been asked to choose between our nearest and dearest or Trump and his clown show and we've gone for the clown show.

    They say Starmer's a lucky general and they're right. If he had any sensible opposition he'd be out on his ear

    Try and stay calm, Roger.

    But if you really want to panic, I'd consider withdrawing your millions and hiding it all under the floorboards of your mansions...
  • eekeek Posts: 29,700
    malcolmg said:

    They just assumed no-one could be that stupid and it was just another one of his fantasies.
    The issue was that it was so stupid no one sane thought it would be implemented as someone would stop it.

    Meanwhile regardless of the economic issues it shows that Trump isn’t bright and that the USA needs to be treated with kid gloves as you quietly separate yourself from them
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,202
    Taz said:


    I’m complaining about the format of his show not his politics. 🙄
    Fair enough, I'm awarding you a Ray Liotta.

    I'd rather listen to a three hour O' Brexit monologue than his Idiot's Corner callers. I quite like Mystery Hour too.

    But he doubtless lurks on PB and snaffles our ideas.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,465
    edited April 3
    There's an Electoral Calculus MRP poll, partially reported as:

    Reform 227 seats,
    Labour 180 seats
    Conservative 130 seats.

    Despite the criticisms, on current polling, Kemi would be a part of the government, either through a Con/Lab Grand Coalition, or a Con/Reform coalition.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,053
    @cfishman
    Here's the thing that might happen with Trump's tariffs.

    It's not 1893. It's not 1933.

    We—the United States—have spent 50 years creating a web of global trade, an interwoven global economy.

    Now, Trump is using garden shears to cut the US out of that network.

    2/ We've been the indispensable trade partner—the US is 26% of global GDP, and a great place to sell your stuff. We have well-off consumers with plenty of disposable income.

    But if Trump is unbending, the world could simply comply—and trade among themselves.

    3/ We are 26% of the global market. But that means 74% of the global market is out there without us.

    Including all of the EU, whose unified economy is almost the size of the US, with similar consumers. And the Chinese economy.

    The world will be sad to see us go...

    4/ But they could, in the short- to medium-term, just trade around us.

    We would be ceding the global economic stage.

    Ceding economic influence. Cultural influence. Leadership. Leverage.

    What could have been a 2nd 'American Century' could quickly become a 'Chinese Century.'

    5/ Far from ushering in a golden age of American revival, this could be the moment the US began sliding into economic isolation, diplomatic isolation, economic irrelevance.

    We're a huge, vital market.

    But how much tumult, confusion & unpredictability can a nation take?

    https://x.com/cfishman/status/1907573487004266958
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,835
    Sean_F said:

    There's an Electoral Calculus MRP poll, partially reported as:

    Reform 227 seats,
    Labour 180 seats
    Conservative 130 seats.

    NFICNFIPM
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,202
    GIN1138 said:

    Try and stay calm, Roger.

    But if you really want to panic, I'd consider withdrawing your millions and hiding it all under the floorboards of your mansions...
    Roger is right though. Starmer has had a shocker in the last 24 hours. Not quite Reeves Select Committee levels of ineptitude, but close. I am starting to channel my inner @BJO. Is Burnham available?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,202
    edited April 3
    Sean_F said:

    There's an Electoral Calculus MRP poll, partially reported as:

    Reform 227 seats,
    Labour 180 seats
    Conservative 130 seats.

    Despite the criticisms, on current polling, Kemi would be a part of the government, either through a Con/Lab Grand Coalition, or a Con/Reform coalition.

    That's a comfortable RefCon majority.

    Nigel keeping his head down over Trump tariffs whilst Starmer and Badenoch put their feet in their mouths.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,654
    boulay said:

    You mention lunch with beers - I take it it’s quite relaxed re booze? What’s the nightlife like?
    Pretty relaxed re booze, certainly in the major destinations - Samarkand, Bukhara. But some restaurants don’t serve it - and yet when you ask they will nip to the shop next door and buy beers. They want the custom

    Don’t expect high end cocktails outside Tashkent or five star hotels in Samarkand

    Nightlife does exist - bars, tea houses, general urban life (esp when the days are so hot everyone lives after dusk). But you’re not going to meet sexy Uzbek girls in a nightclub, or if you do bring folding money

    In my pro opinion this is an incredible destination right now - given the mix of superb sights and lack of crime and notable cheapness. And ease of getting around on high speed trains

    And I certainly do not say this as advertorial. I’ve just come from Uruguay which was fun but there’s no way I’d recommend it unless you’ve been everywhere else
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,101

    You're the dumb one if you think that suffering double the harm is better than half the harm, just because you'd prefer no harm.

    I'd prefer not to get injured, but if I am hurt I'd rather lose one pint of blood than two. That doesn't mean I'm eager to lose a pint of blood any time soon, but if something were to happen outside my control, I'd prefer a lesser harm than a greater one.
    That's looking at trade with the USA in isolation - 10% advantage in £60 billion exports to USA versus the self imposed harm of non-tariff barriers on £360 billion of exports to the EU? That gave us big increases in inflation and food prices which we're still suffering from.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,129
    Leon said:

    Pretty relaxed re booze, certainly in the major destinations - Samarkand, Bukhara. But some restaurants don’t serve it - and yet when you ask they will nip to the shop next door and buy beers. They want the custom

    Don’t expect high end cocktails outside Tashkent or five star hotels in Samarkand

    Nightlife does exist - bars, tea houses, general urban life (esp when the days are so hot everyone lives after dusk). But you’re not going to meet sexy Uzbek girls in a nightclub, or if you do bring folding money

    In my pro opinion this is an incredible destination right now - given the mix of superb sights and lack of crime and notable cheapness. And ease of getting around on high speed trains

    And I certainly do not say this as advertorial. I’ve just come from Uruguay which was fun but there’s no way I’d recommend it unless you’ve been everywhere else
    Thanks - will add it to list.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,751
    Selebian said:

    Ambiguous Beeb headline: "Tate receives 'transformational' gift from US donors"

    Turns out - happily - that it's an artwork to the Tate modern, not a legal fighting fund for Andrew

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cm24mpx1xveo

    Is it one of Damien Hirst's animals in aspick? They were fairly transformational over time I understand.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,101
    Ratters said:

    What's to stop companies looking to tariff shop given the arbitrary and vastly differing tariff levels?

    EU companies set up UK plc and export goods for a marginal fee (let's say 0.5%), UK plc puts a stamp on the box as our value add and then exports to the US at 10% tariff rather than the EU's 20%?

    Norfolk Island says thanks for the tip - but don't tell DJT, Pike!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,835
    edited April 3

    That's a comfortable RefCon majority.

    Nigel keeping his head down over Trump tariffs whilst Starmer and Badenoch put their feet in their mouths.

    What exactly would you (and Roger?) have Starmer say and do?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,053
    @jimsciutto

    The administration claims tariffs will strengthen the U.S. economy and U.S. businesses but the world markets, composed of many millions of investors with money on the line, are quite definitively betting the opposite. Who do you believe?

    https://x.com/jimsciutto/status/1907785314610852276
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,202
    GIN1138 said:


    What exactly would you (and Roger?) have Starmer say and do?
    Not equivocate like an idiot*. He's a rabbit in the headlights whilst Von Der Leyen and Carney have taken the bull by the horns. They are the new Leaders of the West while Starmer performs lapdog tricks for the smelly one.

    * I may be proved wrong.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,760
    edited April 3
    Scott_xP said:

    @cfishman
    Here's the thing that might happen with Trump's tariffs.

    It's not 1893. It's not 1933.

    We—the United States—have spent 50 years creating a web of global trade, an interwoven global economy.

    Now, Trump is using garden shears to cut the US out of that network.

    2/ We've been the indispensable trade partner—the US is 26% of global GDP, and a great place to sell your stuff. We have well-off consumers with plenty of disposable income.

    But if Trump is unbending, the world could simply comply—and trade among themselves.

    3/ We are 26% of the global market. But that means 74% of the global market is out there without us.

    Including all of the EU, whose unified economy is almost the size of the US, with similar consumers. And the Chinese economy.

    The world will be sad to see us go...

    4/ But they could, in the short- to medium-term, just trade around us.

    We would be ceding the global economic stage.

    Ceding economic influence. Cultural influence. Leadership. Leverage.

    What could have been a 2nd 'American Century' could quickly become a 'Chinese Century.'

    5/ Far from ushering in a golden age of American revival, this could be the moment the US began sliding into economic isolation, diplomatic isolation, economic irrelevance.

    We're a huge, vital market.

    But how much tumult, confusion & unpredictability can a nation take?

    https://x.com/cfishman/status/1907573487004266958

    Does he really think that if Trump had lost the election, the economic trajectories of China and the USA were heralding another American century? Do you really think that?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,760
    Scott_xP said:

    @jimsciutto

    The administration claims tariffs will strengthen the U.S. economy and U.S. businesses but the world markets, composed of many millions of investors with money on the line, are quite definitively betting the opposite. Who do you believe?

    https://x.com/jimsciutto/status/1907785314610852276

    If Nike's profits depend on making cheaply and importing to the USA and tariffs disrupt that model, it's clear why it might affect the stock price of Nike, but not at all clear why that's bad for America.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,319

    Russia is (according to someone in this thread) already tariffed at 35%.


    I posted earlier that "column 2" countries - Russia, Belarus, Cuba and North Korea - already have tariffs of 35%, and are not included in the latest changes. But I think they have to pay the tariff in column 2 in the various documents here

    https://hts.usitc.gov/

    So maybe there's no easy answer as they seem to vary mostly between 10% and 80%. Can't remember now where I found the 35% figure.

    Using the formula used for other countries Russia should have a flat tariff of about 40%.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,291
    "Letby babies ‘died from poor care and natural causes not murder’

    ‘I have never seen so much evidence of innocence,’ says barrister delivering report from 21 experts to Criminal Cases Review Commission" (£)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/04/03/letby-babies-died-from-poor-care-natural-causes-not-murder/
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,835
    edited April 3

    Not equivocate like an idiot*. He's a rabbit in the headlights whilst Von Der Leyen and Carney have taken the bull by the horns. They are the new Leaders of the West while Starmer performs lapdog tricks for the smelly one.

    * I may be proved wrong.
    What have VDL and Carney actually achieved though?

    You basically want Starmer to call a presser, look at the cameras and tell the Orange One to fuck off? That's fine, I understand the sentiment and it would make everyone feel better.

    And then what?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,202
    GIN1138 said:

    NFICNFIPM
    But Trump, Musk and Vance are not so keen on Nigel as the rest of us.

    SYLICIPM
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,291
    Sean_F said:

    There's an Electoral Calculus MRP poll, partially reported as:

    Reform 227 seats,
    Labour 180 seats
    Conservative 130 seats.

    Despite the criticisms, on current polling, Kemi would be a part of the government, either through a Con/Lab Grand Coalition, or a Con/Reform coalition.

    What on earth are the percentages leading to these figures...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,202
    GIN1138 said:

    What have VDL and Carney actually achieved though?

    You basically want Starmer to call a presser, look at the cameras and tell the Orange One to fuck off? That's fine, I understand the sentiment and it would make everyone feel better.

    And then what?
    Rescind the unprecedented second State Visit.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,053
    @seungminkim

    NEW YORK (AP) — Dow drops 1,150 points as US stocks see the biggest declines in a global sell-off following Trump's latest tariff volley.

    @elwasson

    NASDAQ falls 4.40% at the open

    @RpsAgainstTrump

    JPMorgan says Donald Trump’s tariffs represent “the largest tax increase since the Revenue Act of 1968” and could push the U.S. economy “perilously close to slipping into recession” by driving up inflation and crippling consumer spending.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,624
    Andy_JS said:

    "Letby babies ‘died from poor care and natural causes not murder’

    ‘I have never seen so much evidence of innocence,’ says barrister delivering report from 21 experts to Criminal Cases Review Commission" (£)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/04/03/letby-babies-died-from-poor-care-natural-causes-not-murder/

    Barrister working for Letby says Letby is innocent.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,717

    Yet, for some reason, there are loads of British producers who now refuse to sell to the EU, or can't tell you how much the customs officials will charge you for your order when it arrives.

    One British company selling to the EU did refund me the customs charge I had to pay, but they said they couldn't pay it in advance because the system was so complicated.

    You might, of course, believe that the cost of increased trade friction is worth it, but
    that doesn't mean the cost doesn't exist. And it annoys me not to be able to buy goods from Britain that I would like.
    And that is entirely the voice of the politicians and bureaucrats in Brussels

    The UK offered a deal with equivalence on regulation. In simple terms that means “the UK and the EU are both mature western economies that will broadly speaking have a similar approach. Unless by exception we will assume that anything regulated in the UK is acceptable in Europe as well and vice versa”

    That would have eliminated all the paperwork and bureaucracy and maintained flexibility on both sides

    The EU said Non! We must have dynamic alignment. Which meant that any time the EU changed their regulations the UK would have to follow suit or be blocked from the single market immediately.

    That is clearly unacceptable to a newly independent state.

    This really could all be easily solved with equivalence
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,465
    Andy_JS said:

    What on earth are the percentages leading to these figures...
    25/23/23.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,521

    But Trump, Musk and Vance are not so keen on Nigel as the rest of us.

    SYLICIPM
    And I'm not so keen on them.
    Seems only fair.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,760
    Scott_xP said:

    @seungminkim

    NEW YORK (AP) — Dow drops 1,150 points as US stocks see the biggest declines in a global sell-off following Trump's latest tariff volley.

    The left talk the talk about inequality and asset wealth, but Trump walks the walk.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,751
    edited April 3

    Not equivocate like an idiot*. He's a rabbit in the headlights whilst Von Der Leyen and Carney have taken the bull by the horns. They are the new Leaders of the West while Starmer performs lapdog tricks for the smelly one.

    * I may be proved wrong.
    Why is politics some sort of beauty parade over who 'leads the West' for you? It is an utterly facile and corrosive view of statecraft.

    Give me a Swiss style state any day, where you never hear about them in the news, but they just keep going being democratic and getting comparatively richer as everyone else shits the bed trying to 'lead the West'.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,317
    sarissa said:

    That's looking at trade with the USA in isolation - 10% advantage in £60 billion exports to USA versus the self imposed harm of non-tariff barriers on £360 billion of exports to the EU? That gave us big increases in inflation and food prices which we're still suffering from.
    What harm? What suffering?

    We've grown at a comparable rate to the Euro Area and we have had a comparable level of inflation to them too.

    Inflation spiked globally due to Covid and the Ukraine War, not Brexit.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,202
    Nigelb said:

    And I'm not so keen on them.
    Seems only fair.
    How's the tattoo healing?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,202

    The left talk the talk about inequality and asset wealth, but Trump walks the walk.
    You do post some w@nk!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,053

    The left talk the talk about inequality and asset wealth, but Trump walks the walk.
    @timsteno
    *APPLE SHARES FALL 8.5%, ERASING $255 BILLION IN VALUE
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,099

    The left talk the talk about inequality and asset wealth, but Trump walks the walk.
    Levelling down.
  • novanova Posts: 754
    Sean_F said:

    There's an Electoral Calculus MRP poll, partially reported as:

    Reform 227 seats,
    Labour 180 seats
    Conservative 130 seats.

    Despite the criticisms, on current polling, Kemi would be a part of the government, either through a Con/Lab Grand Coalition, or a Con/Reform coalition.

    She should probably ask Ed Miliband and Jeremy Corbyn for tips, on how to deal with such an exciting predicted future.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,760
    Scott_xP said:

    @timsteno
    *APPLE SHARES FALL 8.5%, ERASING $255 BILLION IN VALUE
    What do you think is the correct value of an Apple share without Trump?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,202

    Why is politics some sort of beauty parade over who 'leads the West' for you? It is an utterly facile and corrosive view of statecraft.

    Give me a Swiss style state any day, where you never hear about them in the news, but they just keep going being democratic and getting comparatively richer as everyone else shits the bed trying to 'lead the West'.
    Yeah, but you want Putin to lead the West. Next.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,053
    Ah, let the purges begin...

    @maggieNYT

    NEW: In Oval Office meeting yesterday, Laura Loomer presented the president with a list of NSC staff she said were disloyal and should be fired. Mike Waltz was there defending his team.

    https://x.com/maggieNYT/status/1907790556387832142
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,053

    What do you think is the correct value of an Apple share without Trump?
    I think yesterday Americans had $225 Billion dollars more in their pension pots
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,760
    Scott_xP said:

    I think yesterday Americans had $225 Billion dollars more in their pension pots
    Was that fair value or not? Would you have been a buyer or a seller at those prices?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,053

    Would you have been a buyer or a seller at those prices?

    No
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,465
    @Leon If I went to Uzbekistan, for say, eight days, would you advise doing all of Tashkent, Bukhara, Samarkand, and Khiva, or sticking to one or two cities?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,624

    Was that fair value or not? Would you have been a buyer or a seller at those prices?
    Pack it in, william. You're just being silly now.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 923

    The left talk the talk about inequality and asset wealth, but Trump walks the walk.
    You think this is going to harm the wealthy?
    This will just hit ordinary people's pension savings and investments as their investment funds react slower and will be on the downside of the trading. Then there'll be job cuts and suppressed wages as companies batten down the hatches to try and survive.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,317

    Barrister working for Letby says Letby is innocent.

    Barrister working for Letby says Letby is innocent.
    As increasingly do a plethora of medical experts who are not working for Letby.

    There are enough question marks to warrant serious review of the case now. I would like that to be done with an open mind, which it does not seem you have.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,319
    Scott_xP said:

    @cfishman
    Here's the thing that might happen with Trump's tariffs.

    It's not 1893. It's not 1933.

    We—the United States—have spent 50 years creating a web of global trade, an interwoven global economy.

    Now, Trump is using garden shears to cut the US out of that network.

    2/ We've been the indispensable trade partner—the US is 26% of global GDP, and a great place to sell your stuff. We have well-off consumers with plenty of disposable income.

    But if Trump is unbending, the world could simply comply—and trade among themselves.

    3/ We are 26% of the global market. But that means 74% of the global market is out there without us.

    Including all of the EU, whose unified economy is almost the size of the US, with similar consumers. And the Chinese economy.

    The world will be sad to see us go...

    4/ But they could, in the short- to medium-term, just trade around us.

    We would be ceding the global economic stage.

    Ceding economic influence. Cultural influence. Leadership. Leverage.

    What could have been a 2nd 'American Century' could quickly become a 'Chinese Century.'

    5/ Far from ushering in a golden age of American revival, this could be the moment the US began sliding into economic isolation, diplomatic isolation, economic irrelevance.

    We're a huge, vital market.

    But how much tumult, confusion & unpredictability can a nation take?

    https://x.com/cfishman/status/1907573487004266958

    Worth remembering that the USA is a lot less than 26% of global trade. (Partly because the US is such a big economy).

    eg The US is the largest export market for Germany, but that still only accounts for about 10% of German exports. It's a lot less than Germany exports to the Netherlands plus Poland.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,053
    @TheDailyShow

    CNN: Stock market plummets
    MSNBC: Stock market craters
    Highlights for Children: Stock market down big
    FOX News:

    https://x.com/TheDailyShow/status/1907792153234887109
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,760

    Pack it in, william. You're just being silly now.
    It would be a bit boring if nobody were defending the tariff gambit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,907
    Scott_xP said:

    @cfishman
    Here's the thing that might happen with Trump's tariffs.

    It's not 1893. It's not 1933.

    We—the United States—have spent 50 years creating a web of global trade, an interwoven global economy.

    Now, Trump is using garden shears to cut the US out of that network.

    2/ We've been the indispensable trade partner—the US is 26% of global GDP, and a great place to sell your stuff. We have well-off consumers with plenty of disposable income.

    But if Trump is unbending, the world could simply comply—and trade among themselves.

    3/ We are 26% of the global market. But that means 74% of the global market is out there without us.

    Including all of the EU, whose unified economy is almost the size of the US, with similar consumers. And the Chinese economy.

    The world will be sad to see us go...

    4/ But they could, in the short- to medium-term, just trade around us.

    We would be ceding the global economic stage.

    Ceding economic influence. Cultural influence. Leadership. Leverage.

    What could have been a 2nd 'American Century' could quickly become a 'Chinese Century.'

    5/ Far from ushering in a golden age of American revival, this could be the moment the US began sliding into economic isolation, diplomatic isolation, economic irrelevance.

    We're a huge, vital market.

    But how much tumult, confusion & unpredictability can a nation take?

    https://x.com/cfishman/status/1907573487004266958

    It was cheap Chinese goods in the US market that partly motivated these tariffs to increase US manufacturing production
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,155

    It would be a bit boring if nobody were defending the tariff gambit.
    It’s not a game
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