The UK exports £360bn of goods to the EU, on which we now struggle with big non tariff barriers, compared to £60bn to the US. Imagine looking at this sh1tshow and thinking it vindicates Brexit in any way.
So if tariffs/non-tariff barriers are BAD, you obviously think the EU are as bad as Trump, right?
What if Trump's tariffs work? From a US POV I mean. He'll be given a third term and a landslide.
If they work in the sense of creating more new manufacturing jobs than any cost of living rise, then a Farage government here, a government of Le Pen's party in France etc will soon be elected to follow suit and a new era of global protectionism will emerge
Brexit cost the UK economy 10 times as much as 'only having 10% tariffs instead of 20%' saves
The reason why our tariffs are lower is because our trade surplus ratio in goods with the US is smaller than the EU's. It's not actually based on the EU's tariffs on the US at all. (Hence why he claimed Cambodia has 97% tariffs - that's just their trade deficit).
So it's a good day at the office for our sub-optimal goods exports....
Exactly. It also means the value of any deal with the US is relatively less. This might matter if we are making concessions against our other interests.
Getting a deal with Trump doesn't remotely compensate for the opportunity cost of Brexit. The trade off is of course hypothetical because we've Brexited anyway.
Economists and think tankers have assessed overnight that the tariff calculations are really trade deficit calculations: based not on the tax charged on imports, but the volume of trade between two nations. If the United States is importing more from another country – and so has a ‘trade deficit’ with that country – the billions of dollars that deficit amounts to seems to better reflect the tariff listed next to the country’s name than the taxes on trade they actually collect. https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/do-trumps-tariff-calculations-add-up/
While we might justifiably be concerned about the overall current account deficit or surplus, as @DavidL often reminds us, it is a marker of pure economic ignorance to conflate that with bilateral imbalances of trade and imagine that any coherent trade policy can be based on that. Trump resorts to the basest "ripping us off" invective as if Americans' purchasing decisions were not free choices.
As I say a lot, tariffs against the British were responsible for Germany's successful industrialisation. We have a very long history of being pro-free trade, but that is because as the largest industrial producer, that situation favoured us.
What if Trump's tariffs work? From a US POV I mean. He'll be given a third term and a landslide.
If they work in the sense of creating more new manufacturing jobs than any cost of living rise, then a Farage government here, a government of Le Pen's party in France etc will soon be elected to follow suit and a new era of global protectionism will emerge
That would upend everything we know about economic theory.... and, I mean, just look at the nasdaq and s&p futures down 4% over night... that is money pulling out of american companies and projects. All the immediate effects are exactly what we expected them to be. Detrimental to the US. And sure it will also hurt the rest of the world, but mainly in the short run and it reorganises, and even then the pain will be orders of magnitude less than what the americans will experience. They are only 12% of global gdp.... they can't dictate terms like that. There are lots of other avenues for trade and capital among the rest of us. In 5-10 years the US will be a shadow of its former self... not unlike brexit britan. Brexit is made of the exact same stuff.... another example is Liz Truss' fiscal event or as the daily express called it: the first true brexit budget. I think this is the key wakness of right wing populism... it doesnt understand how things work... it believes its own delusions.
There is one school of thought which says the best course of action is to do nothing. Stand back and let the madman covered in gasoline burn
There is another which says this is an opportunity for the RoW to win the trade war, as the MAGA idiots who voted for Trumpski have zero appetite for the fight he has landed them in
The UK exports £360bn of goods to the EU, on which we now struggle with big non tariff barriers, compared to £60bn to the US. Imagine looking at this sh1tshow and thinking it vindicates Brexit in any way.
You are fighting yesterday's battles
And you are blinded to the opportunity this opens to many countries, including the EU, to develop a mutually beneficial security and trading association much wider than just the EU
What if Trump's tariffs work? From a US POV I mean. He'll be given a third term and a landslide.
They won't
Nobody will build the factories he imagines in the US because you can't trust the administration not to change direction on a whim (nor the rule of law)
More than that the US doesn't have some huge pool of cheap surplus labour just sitting around waiting to make things for the same cost as the people in China can.
A person might have a trade deficit with the milkman, that doesn't meant it would make sense for them to give up their well paid office job and buy a cow to redress the trade imbalance. Yet that is essentially what Trump is trying to do at a national scale.
Any EU country with a significant trade surplus with the US has done (relatively) very well out of this, protected by the EU-wide average. That's Germany and Italy (I guess Ireland is mainly services).
To an extent the government have had a small boost in that the US tariffs imposed on the UK are lower than those imposed on the EU, Japan, China, India, South Africa etc . Regardless of any subsequent UK response
Entirely by luck
Mainly as the US has a lower trade deficit with us already
Seems to work on countries in the new list, including best pal Netanyahu's Israel (tariff 17%). Canada and Mexico get special treatment. As do "Column 2" countries Russia, Belarus, North Korea and Cuba. Though I haven't found out for sure what the Russia tariff currently is, it says 35% in a document from 2022, but that might be out of date.
Can't fault the govts approach to the tariffs myself *. Do we want our goods to be more expensive from the US. Anyway 10% is no worse than our own VAT. * We should probably try and do a deal on the car tariffs.
I think the reality is the economy will absolutely tank and Trump will just lie about it and refuse to accept reality and the GOP will clap like seals. I wouldn't be surprised if he closes all the stats agencies that do stuff like consumer price index or just installs liars into them.
He has already said that any bad economic indicators are "fake news"
The problem he has (maybe) is that US consumers don't care about Global macroeconomics, but absolutely care about the cost of living, which is about to spike harder than they have ever seen
TwiX and Google will simply not allow the bad news to be seen.
Anybody who claims to know what the economic impact of the tariff eschaton is going to be is talking shit out of their arsehole.
If my time on pb.com has taught me anything, other than that urban planning is the most tedious subject on Earth, it's that nobody ever makes accurate economic predictions. In fact the verity of the prediction seems to correlate inversely with the confidence and clarity with which it is delivered.
Ahem
From about 2008 on this site, albeit often under the name Martin Day, I’ve been predicting that China would overtake the USA in power and importance
I thought it would be realised in basic terms like GDP - a kind of sorpasso - but no. It has arrived in voluntary American resignation, America admitting it is not hegemonic and no longer pre-eminent and all powerful and it must retreat and defend. That day arrived yesterday, tho Trump probably believes the opposite
I tried to simplify it to my kid like this: you buy something at the store for $50. Then Trump says that store stole $50 from you so he's going to tax the store $25. Store now charges $75.
A big reason why we’re here is Trump has long spoken like he honestly believes trade deficits are some sort of fee America pays and should retaliate against and most people in the media were like “he can’t actually mean that, that’s way too stupid” so they covered him like he meant something else.
Brexit cost the UK economy 10 times as much as 'only having 10% tariffs instead of 20%' saves
There is no doubt this is a positive for Brexit and certainly will make the case to rejoin much harder to make
However, there is a real opportunity for an exciting and new arrangement with countries across the globe coming together in a new and wider security and trading association
The question to be asked is are today's politicians and leaders capable of delivering such a opportunity?
Blimey!
I'll have a glass half full of whatever you're drinking.
The UK exports £360bn of goods to the EU, on which we now struggle with big non tariff barriers, compared to £60bn to the US. Imagine looking at this sh1tshow and thinking it vindicates Brexit in any way.
So if tariffs/non-tariff barriers are BAD, you obviously think the EU are as bad as Trump, right?
We demanded the barriers, not the EU. Tret us like a 3rd country Boris demanded.
The UK exports £360bn of goods to the EU, on which we now struggle with big non tariff barriers, compared to £60bn to the US. Imagine looking at this sh1tshow and thinking it vindicates Brexit in any way.
As Brexit was an exercise in smoke and mirrors, a big win can be claimed.
You are trying to spin yesterday's crushing defeat as a glorious victory
Brexit looks as dumb today as it did yesterday, and will continue to do so
100% Not only that... the vast majority of the electorate want to get back in, the vast majority of parliament want to get back in.... this is just a question of how long the government can fight political gravity....
I tried to simplify it to my kid like this: you buy something at the store for $50. Then Trump says that store stole $50 from you so he's going to tax the store $25. Store now charges $75.
A big reason why we’re here is Trump has long spoken like he honestly believes trade deficits are some sort of fee America pays and should retaliate against and most people in the media were like “he can’t actually mean that, that’s way too stupid” so they covered him like he meant something else.
"It was hard to find anyone with a bad word for Trump’s presidency [at Davos], which was said to promise a solidly Republican, business-friendly agenda of deregulation, tax cutting and “drill, baby, drill” repudiation of both net zero and prescriptive “diversity, inclusion and equity” dogmas."
"Virtually everyone agreed that America would boom.The tariff issue, it was widely admitted, was a concern, but wiser counsel would eventually prevail, and as in his first presidency, Trump’s bark would prove worse than his bite."
You are trying to spin yesterday's crushing defeat as a glorious victory
Brexit looks as dumb today as it did yesterday, and will continue to do so
Remoaners are always speciously pointing to the perceived lack of 'Brexit benefits' as if Brexit was meant to be an instant pay cheque, not a freedom that requires actual use to be enjoyed.
Well, by happy coincidence, here you go. Just by being outside the EU, tariffs on our exports to the US are halved vs. those being levied on those from the bloc. And it's happened regardless of how shit the British Government is. You're welcome.
What if Trump's tariffs work? From a US POV I mean. He'll be given a third term and a landslide.
If they work in the sense of creating more new manufacturing jobs than any cost of living rise, then a Farage government here, a government of Le Pen's party in France etc will soon be elected to follow suit and a new era of global protectionism will emerge
Where are these hordes of people who want to work on a 1950s style assembly line for minimum wage ?
People do not want those sort of jobs anymore and they certainly do not want the levels of pay they would offer.
Manufacturing businesses struggle to recruit skilled workers on high rates of pay.
Brexit cost the UK economy 10 times as much as 'only having 10% tariffs instead of 20%' saves
There is no doubt this is a positive for Brexit and certainly will make the case to rejoin much harder to make
However, there is a real opportunity for an exciting and new arrangement with countries across the globe coming together in a new and wider security and trading association
The question to be asked is are today's politicians and leaders capable of delivering such a opportunity?
Blimey!
I'll have a glass half full of whatever you're drinking.
Can't fault the govts approach to the tariffs myself *. Do we want our goods to be more expensive from the US. Anyway 10% is no worse than our own VAT. * We should probably try and do a deal on the car tariffs.
Any deal will involve grovelling to Trump and I would prefer we didn’t embarrass ourselves on a global stage like that to be honest.
What if Trump's tariffs work? From a US POV I mean. He'll be given a third term and a landslide.
If they work in the sense of creating more new manufacturing jobs than any cost of living rise, then a Farage government here, a government of Le Pen's party in France etc will soon be elected to follow suit and a new era of global protectionism will emerge
Where are these hordes of people who want to work on a 1950s style assembly line for minimum wage ?
People do not want those sort of jobs anymore and they certainly do not want the levels of pay they would offer.
Manufacturing businesses struggle to recruit skilled workers on high rates of pay.
There is absolutely zero evidence that people would rather rot on the dole than work in manufacturing. They haven't had the choice because manufacturing in the UK (and one must assume also in the US to an extent) has been made virtually impossible.
I am going to be saying this all day, but, all the bank economic models of tariffs had the dollar strengthening to offset ~40-80% of the tariff impact on prices. If you do a tariff regime so crazy the dollar weakens then you have put the Fed between a rock and a hard place.
The UK exports £360bn of goods to the EU, on which we now struggle with big non tariff barriers, compared to £60bn to the US. Imagine looking at this sh1tshow and thinking it vindicates Brexit in any way.
You are fighting yesterday's battles
And you are blinded to the opportunity this opens to many countries, including the EU, to develop a mutually beneficial security and trading association much wider than just the EU
Indeed Ed Davey said as much yesterday
We need to move on from Brexit - I have seen morons suggesting that 10-25% tariffs is a "Brexit bonus". It is not. Nor does that require endless whining about Brexit.
Yesterday we entered a new era. Brexit was in a previous era. As you say, we need to do things differently in this new world order, and that goes beyond the EU.
Davey could very well lead the LD polling numbers to new heights, especially if Starmer continues to be Quisling and Badenoch continues not to bother reading up on boring things like tariffs which are are distraction from Real Issues like whitey being fingered for black crimes on the telly.
You are trying to spin yesterday's crushing defeat as a glorious victory
Brexit looks as dumb today as it did yesterday, and will continue to do so
Remoaners are always speciously pointing to the perceived lack of 'Brexit benefits' as if Brexit was meant to be an instant pay cheque, not a freedom that requires actual use to be enjoyed.
Well, by happy coincidence, here you go. Just by being outside the EU, tariffs on our exports to the US are halved vs. those being levied on those from the bloc. And it's happened regardless of how shit the British Government is. You're welcome.
I would be interested to know what you do or did for a living? Did you actually export? Actually have real experience of the barriers Brexit caused. To anyone familiar with preparing carnets should be able to tell you.
What if Trump's tariffs work? From a US POV I mean. He'll be given a third term and a landslide.
If they work in the sense of creating more new manufacturing jobs than any cost of living rise, then a Farage government here, a government of Le Pen's party in France etc will soon be elected to follow suit and a new era of global protectionism will emerge
Where are these hordes of people who want to work on a 1950s style assembly line for minimum wage ?
People do not want those sort of jobs anymore and they certainly do not want the levels of pay they would offer.
Manufacturing businesses struggle to recruit skilled workers on high rates of pay.
There is absolutely zero evidence that people would rather rot on the dole than work in manufacturing. They haven't had the choice because manufacturing in the UK (and one must assume also in the US to an extent) has been made virtually impossible.
Literally rubbish. There’s plenty of manufacturing in the UK and the US. It just isn’t low value or low value added.
You are trying to spin yesterday's crushing defeat as a glorious victory
Brexit looks as dumb today as it did yesterday, and will continue to do so
Remoaners are always speciously pointing to the perceived lack of 'Brexit benefits' as if Brexit was meant to be an instant pay cheque, not a freedom that requires actual use to be enjoyed.
Well, by happy coincidence, here you go. Just by being outside the EU, tariffs on our exports to the US are halved vs. those being levied on those from the bloc. And it's happened regardless of how shit the British Government is. You're welcome.
I would be interested to know what you do or did for a living? Did you actually export? Actually have real experience of the barriers Brexit caused. To anyone familiar with preparing carnets should be able to tell you.
I can't see how this point is remotely connected with the point I just made.
You are trying to spin yesterday's crushing defeat as a glorious victory
Brexit looks as dumb today as it did yesterday, and will continue to do so
I do not need to spin something that is obvious
Brexit has happened and we need to take the opportunities now on offer across the globe
You will always lament Brexit but the UK is not about to rejoin the EU anytime soon
What Brexit opportunities?
Let's say Brexit has cost us £5 ( if you think that number too high, pick any number of £1 or greater- it is widely accepted there has been va cost to Brexit). Trump has charged us a £1 tariff giving a total of Brexit plus Trump of £6. If we remained in the EU that tariff would be doubled to £2 giving us £7. But we didn't Brexit so we can remove the £5 cost of Brexit. So without Brexit our tariff cost is £2. With Brexit our Brexit plus tariff cost is £6.
So long as the cost of Brexit ( in my exercise) is greater than £1, we have still lost out by Brexiting.
I am going to be saying this all day, but, all the bank economic models of tariffs had the dollar strengthening to offset ~40-80% of the tariff impact on prices. If you do a tariff regime so crazy the dollar weakens then you have put the Fed between a rock and a hard place.
What if Trump's tariffs work? From a US POV I mean. He'll be given a third term and a landslide.
If they work in the sense of creating more new manufacturing jobs than any cost of living rise, then a Farage government here, a government of Le Pen's party in France etc will soon be elected to follow suit and a new era of global protectionism will emerge
Where are these hordes of people who want to work on a 1950s style assembly line for minimum wage ?
People do not want those sort of jobs anymore and they certainly do not want the levels of pay they would offer.
Manufacturing businesses struggle to recruit skilled workers on high rates of pay.
There is absolutely zero evidence that people would rather rot on the dole than work in manufacturing. They haven't had the choice because manufacturing in the UK (and one must assume also in the US to an extent) has been made virtually impossible.
There's lots of evidence and every factory manager would be able to give it.
Do you really think that those on the sick, the layabouts, the early retired, the unskilled, the useless want to work on an assembly line for minimum wage ?
I've seen too many workers recruited for higher paid and easier production jobs have to be got rid of within a few weeks because they're no good.
You are trying to spin yesterday's crushing defeat as a glorious victory
Brexit looks as dumb today as it did yesterday, and will continue to do so
I do not need to spin something that is obvious
Brexit has happened and we need to take the opportunities now on offer across the globe
You will always lament Brexit but the UK is not about to rejoin the EU anytime soon
What Brexit opportunities?
Let's say Brexit has cost us £5 ( if you think that number too high, pick any number greater than £1). Trump has charged us a £1 tariff giving a total of Brexit plus Trump of £6. If we remained in the EU that tariff would be doubled to £2 giving us £7. But we didn't Brexit so we can remove the £5 cost of Brexit. So without Brexit our tariff cost is £2. With Brexit our Brexit plus tariff cost is £6.
So long as the cost of Brexit ( in my exercise) is greater than £1, we have still lost out by Brexiting.
The problem for many is the fact they didn't accept the referendum vote and the political class decided to have a bun fight over the issue rather than getting together and landing on a sensible solution
I voted remain but accepted the verdict and whilst it has faults it still is the way forward, especially in this new trading environment, and the politicians need to take the opportunity for a new world order to everyone's benefit excluding the US of course
If anyone still gives a fuck about it, there was an excellent long article on the SMO in the NYT on Sunday.
Some interesting snippets...
The UK has a lot of pull in Kiev because of the amount of troops (and others) they have inside Ukraine. In contrast to the US who go no further east than Wiesbaden. Which was news to me. SKS will be in the shit if any get captured.
Zaluzhniy was a fucking nightmare to deal with and he wouldn't speak to Gen. Miley. When Miley wanted to talk to him he had to call the CO of the California National Guard who spoke to some Ukrainian oligarch in LA with absolutely no links to organised crime. This guy would speak to the Ukranian Defence Minister who would then make Zaluzhniy phone Miley.
Zelenskiy, Zaluzhniy and Syrsky completed buggered the cucksteroffensive through infighting and micro-management against the advice of Gen. Donahue.
The combination of CIA intel + HIMARS was devastating and they rocked the Russians back to almost the point of defeat several times but the Ukrainian generals wouldn't press an advantage when they had it to the fury and frustration of the much more aggressive Americans.
Good article. The type of in-depth reportage you would never see in a British newspaper in a million years.
I am going to be saying this all day, but, all the bank economic models of tariffs had the dollar strengthening to offset ~40-80% of the tariff impact on prices. If you do a tariff regime so crazy the dollar weakens then you have put the Fed between a rock and a hard place.
If anyone still gives a fuck about it, there was an excellent long article on the SMO in the NYT on Sunday.
Some interesting snippets...
The UK has a lot of pull in Kiev because of the amount of troops (and others) they have inside Ukraine. In contrast to the US who go no further east than Wiesbaden. Which was news to me. SKS will be in the shit if any get captured.
Zaluzhniy was a fucking nightmare to deal with and he wouldn't speak to Gen. Miley. When Miley wanted to talk to him he had to call the CO of the California National Guard who spoke to some Ukrainian oligarch in LA with absolutely no links to organised crime. This guy would speak to the Ukranian Defence Minister who would then make Zaluzhniy phone Miley.
Zelenskiy, Zaluzhniy and Syrsky completed buggered the cucksteroffensive through infighting and micro-management against the advice of Gen. Donahue.
The combination of CIA intel + HIMARS was devastating and they rocked the Russians back to almost the point of defeat several times but the Ukrainian generals wouldn't press an advantage when they had it to the fury and frustration of the much more aggressive Americans.
Good article. The type of in-depth reportage you would never see in a British newspaper in a million years.
You are trying to spin yesterday's crushing defeat as a glorious victory
Brexit looks as dumb today as it did yesterday, and will continue to do so
Remoaners are always speciously pointing to the perceived lack of 'Brexit benefits' as if Brexit was meant to be an instant pay cheque, not a freedom that requires actual use to be enjoyed.
Well, by happy coincidence, here you go. Just by being outside the EU, tariffs on our exports to the US are halved vs. those being levied on those from the bloc. And it's happened regardless of how shit the British Government is. You're welcome.
I would be interested to know what you do or did for a living? Did you actually export? Actually have real experience of the barriers Brexit caused. To anyone familiar with preparing carnets should be able to tell you.
I can't see how this point is remotely connected with the point I just made.
Really? Just trying to find out if you have any experience of what you say on here. I have. So do you have any real knowledge of exporting to the EU pre and post Brexit? Have you ever filled in a carnet for instance and sat there at customs having a conversation with a French customs officer.
Maybe practical experience of the pre and post Brexit issues might change your views.
You are trying to spin yesterday's crushing defeat as a glorious victory
Brexit looks as dumb today as it did yesterday, and will continue to do so
Remoaners are always speciously pointing to the perceived lack of 'Brexit benefits' as if Brexit was meant to be an instant pay cheque, not a freedom that requires actual use to be enjoyed.
Well, by happy coincidence, here you go. Just by being outside the EU, tariffs on our exports to the US are halved vs. those being levied on those from the bloc. And it's happened regardless of how shit the British Government is. You're welcome.
If anyone still gives a fuck about it, there was an excellent long article on the SMO in the NYT on Sunday.
Some interesting snippets...
The UK has a lot of pull in Kiev because of the amount of troops (and others) they have inside Ukraine. In contrast to the US who go no further east than Wiesbaden. Which was news to me. SKS will be in the shit if any get captured.
Zaluzhniy was a fucking nightmare to deal with and he wouldn't speak to Gen. Miley. When Miley wanted to talk to him he had to call the CO of the California National Guard who spoke to some Ukrainian oligarch in LA with absolutely no links to organised crime. This guy would speak to the Ukranian Defence Minister who would then make Zaluzhniy phone Miley.
Zelenskiy, Zaluzhniy and Syrsky completed buggered the cucksteroffensive through infighting and micro-management against the advice of Gen. Donahue.
The combination of CIA intel + HIMARS was devastating and they rocked the Russians back to almost the point of defeat several times but the Ukrainian generals wouldn't press an advantage when they had it to the fury and frustration of the much more aggressive Americans.
Good article. The type of in-depth reportage you would never see in a British newspaper in a million years.
SKS will be in the shit if any get captured. by Baltic swamps ?
What if Trump's tariffs work? From a US POV I mean. He'll be given a third term and a landslide.
If they work in the sense of creating more new manufacturing jobs than any cost of living rise, then a Farage government here, a government of Le Pen's party in France etc will soon be elected to follow suit and a new era of global protectionism will emerge
Where are these hordes of people who want to work on a 1950s style assembly line for minimum wage ?
People do not want those sort of jobs anymore and they certainly do not want the levels of pay they would offer.
Manufacturing businesses struggle to recruit skilled workers on high rates of pay.
There is absolutely zero evidence that people would rather rot on the dole than work in manufacturing. They haven't had the choice because manufacturing in the UK (and one must assume also in the US to an extent) has been made virtually impossible.
There's lots of evidence and every factory manager would be able to give it.
Do you really think that those on the sick, the layabouts, the early retired, the unskilled, the useless want to work on an assembly line for minimum wage ?
I've seen too many workers recruited for higher paid and easier production jobs have to be got rid of within a few weeks because they're no good.
I do if the alternatives were not more lucrative than taking up that job.
Furthermore, we seem to be able to keep huge warehousing operations going to supply us with these Chinese imports, offering jobs that are just as mechanised and with similar pay to manufacturing jobs, and are in many ways less satisfying.
You are trying to spin yesterday's crushing defeat as a glorious victory
Brexit looks as dumb today as it did yesterday, and will continue to do so
I do not need to spin something that is obvious
Brexit has happened and we need to take the opportunities now on offer across the globe
You will always lament Brexit but the UK is not about to rejoin the EU anytime soon
What Brexit opportunities?
Let's say Brexit has cost us £5 ( if you think that number too high, pick any number greater than £1). Trump has charged us a £1 tariff giving a total of Brexit plus Trump of £6. If we remained in the EU that tariff would be doubled to £2 giving us £7. But we didn't Brexit so we can remove the £5 cost of Brexit. So without Brexit our tariff cost is £2. With Brexit our Brexit plus tariff cost is £6.
So long as the cost of Brexit ( in my exercise) is greater than £1, we have still lost out by Brexiting.
The problem for many is the fact they didn't accept the referendum vote and the political class decided to have a bun fight over the issue rather than getting together and landing on a sensible solution
I voted remain but accepted the verdict and whilst it has faults it still is the way forward, especially in this new trading environment, and the politicians need to take the opportunity for a new world order to everyone's benefit excluding the US of course
So do I accept the vote, and I also accept the EU won't want us back anytime soon with King Nigel waiting in the wings. All that said and done I wouldn't take that extra step you have taken and sell Brexit as a win for Britain.
The UK exports £360bn of goods to the EU, on which we now struggle with big non tariff barriers, compared to £60bn to the US. Imagine looking at this sh1tshow and thinking it vindicates Brexit in any way.
You are fighting yesterday's battles
And you are blinded to the opportunity this opens to many countries, including the EU, to develop a mutually beneficial security and trading association much wider than just the EU
Indeed Ed Davey said as much yesterday
A partial reset with the EU is indeed a big prize but the current government isn't pursuing it with any energy. The risk is it will push for a deal with Trump with relatively little upside at the expense of the country's wider interests.
If anyone still gives a fuck about it, there was an excellent long article on the SMO in the NYT on Sunday.
Some interesting snippets...
The UK has a lot of pull in Kiev because of the amount of troops (and others) they have inside Ukraine. In contrast to the US who go no further east than Wiesbaden. Which was news to me. SKS will be in the shit if any get captured.
Zaluzhniy was a fucking nightmare to deal with and he wouldn't speak to Gen. Miley. When Miley wanted to talk to him he had to call the CO of the California National Guard who spoke to some Ukrainian oligarch in LA with absolutely no links to organised crime. This guy would speak to the Ukranian Defence Minister who would then make Zaluzhniy phone Miley.
Zelenskiy, Zaluzhniy and Syrsky completed buggered the cucksteroffensive through infighting and micro-management against the advice of Gen. Donahue.
The combination of CIA intel + HIMARS was devastating and they rocked the Russians back to almost the point of defeat several times but the Ukrainian generals wouldn't press an advantage when they had it to the fury and frustration of the much more aggressive Americans.
Good article. The type of in-depth reportage you would never see in a British newspaper in a million years.
Obviously a certain amount of US spin in this article, but it rings true.
I imagine the failure of the counter-offensive made the Ukrainians very reluctant to go on the offensive against the Russian lines again, even though it’s not possible for the Russians to mine the entire front with the density they mined against the counter-offensive.
(It was a total command failure to advertise the location of the counter-offensive so far in advance & so obviously.)
I am going to be saying this all day, but, all the bank economic models of tariffs had the dollar strengthening to offset ~40-80% of the tariff impact on prices. If you do a tariff regime so crazy the dollar weakens then you have put the Fed between a rock and a hard place.
You are trying to spin yesterday's crushing defeat as a glorious victory
Brexit looks as dumb today as it did yesterday, and will continue to do so
Remoaners are always speciously pointing to the perceived lack of 'Brexit benefits' as if Brexit was meant to be an instant pay cheque, not a freedom that requires actual use to be enjoyed.
Well, by happy coincidence, here you go. Just by being outside the EU, tariffs on our exports to the US are halved vs. those being levied on those from the bloc. And it's happened regardless of how shit the British Government is. You're welcome.
Never before has an hour of Presidential rhetoric cost so many people so much. Markets continue to move after my previous tweet. The best estimate of the loss from tariff policy is now is closer to $30 trillion or $300,000 per family of four.
Never before has an hour of Presidential rhetoric cost so many people so much. Markets continue to move after my previous tweet. The best estimate of the loss from tariff policy is now is closer to $30 trillion or $300,000 per family of four.
You are trying to spin yesterday's crushing defeat as a glorious victory
Brexit looks as dumb today as it did yesterday, and will continue to do so
I do not need to spin something that is obvious
Brexit has happened and we need to take the opportunities now on offer across the globe
You will always lament Brexit but the UK is not about to rejoin the EU anytime soon
What Brexit opportunities?
Let's say Brexit has cost us £5 ( if you think that number too high, pick any number greater than £1). Trump has charged us a £1 tariff giving a total of Brexit plus Trump of £6. If we remained in the EU that tariff would be doubled to £2 giving us £7. But we didn't Brexit so we can remove the £5 cost of Brexit. So without Brexit our tariff cost is £2. With Brexit our Brexit plus tariff cost is £6.
So long as the cost of Brexit ( in my exercise) is greater than £1, we have still lost out by Brexiting.
The problem for many is the fact they didn't accept the referendum vote and the political class decided to have a bun fight over the issue rather than getting together and landing on a sensible solution
I voted remain but accepted the verdict and whilst it has faults it still is the way forward, especially in this new trading environment, and the politicians need to take the opportunity for a new world order to everyone's benefit excluding the US of course
So do I accept the vote, and I also accept the EU won't want us back anytime soon with King Nigel waiting in the wings. All that said and done I wouldn't take that extra step you have taken and sell Brexit as a win for Britain.
To be fair to Big_G I don't believe he is ramping 10-25% tariffs as a win. He's advocating that we create a new arrangement with the EU and others. If he was a mad Brexiteer the notion of any further deal with the EU would trigger conniptions.
The UK exports £360bn of goods to the EU, on which we now struggle with big non tariff barriers, compared to £60bn to the US. Imagine looking at this sh1tshow and thinking it vindicates Brexit in any way.
Sure, but this is a positive of Brexit, for now. Just outweighed by the other negatives.
With someone sane in the White House, being part of a big trading bloc working together would also be a disincentive to hit us with tariffs due to the greater impact of any response, but, well... Trump.
You are trying to spin yesterday's crushing defeat as a glorious victory
Brexit looks as dumb today as it did yesterday, and will continue to do so
Remoaners are always speciously pointing to the perceived lack of 'Brexit benefits' as if Brexit was meant to be an instant pay cheque, not a freedom that requires actual use to be enjoyed.
Well, by happy coincidence, here you go. Just by being outside the EU, tariffs on our exports to the US are halved vs. those being levied on those from the bloc. And it's happened regardless of how shit the British Government is. You're welcome.
I would be interested to know what you do or did for a living? Did you actually export? Actually have real experience of the barriers Brexit caused. To anyone familiar with preparing carnets should be able to tell you.
I can't see how this point is remotely connected with the point I just made.
Really? Just trying to find out if you have any experience of what you say on here. I have. So do you have any real knowledge of exporting to the EU pre and post Brexit? Have you ever filled in a carnet for instance and sat there at customs having a conversation with a French customs officer.
Maybe practical experience of the pre and post Brexit issues might change your views.
So what do you do?
I don't consider that to be any of your business.
Especially given that my point above has shit all to do with post-Brexit trade frictions with the EU, which I have never denied or belittled.
As an aside, a personal insight into the frustrations of exporting to the EU post-Brexit would not remotely change my views on the wider subject, for many reasons.
I thought it would be realised in basic terms like GDP - a kind of sorpasso - but no. It has arrived in voluntary American resignation, America admitting it is not hegemonic and no longer pre-eminent and all powerful and it must retreat and defend. That day arrived yesterday, tho Trump probably believes the opposite
One of the biggest issues for the Chinese government right now must be to not be seen to gloat, but they are surely very tempted to do so.
-We may have a 10% Brexit 'dividend' but the cost of that dividend is the significant lost output since Brexit and trade dislocation with the EU, which the somewhat more generous US treatment does not even nearly compensate for.
The point being that Brexit was an economic disaster, and "only 10%" doesn't even begin to make up for it
You think that it was a disaster, I don't. But I'm glad you concede my point by implication, even if you didn't display the character to acknowledge it openly.
The point being that Brexit was an economic disaster, and "only 10%" doesn't even begin to make up for it
No it wasn't Scott. Covid was an economic disaster. The Ukraine war was an economic disaster. Trumponomics might well be an economic disaster, Brexit was an invisible blip by comparison. My expectation is still that it will be a long-term positive, as I think there is a risk of the European economy going through some pretty turbulent times, but either way it is small beer compared to three other economic disasters that have happened since.
European finance ministers are being sensible. Calling for a negotiated settlement. Stating that actions will need to be taken to protect our interests if such a negotiation isn't possible.
So the obvious question is this - will Trump blink?
Trump doesn't understand tariffs. US Undersecretary for Trade Bonnie Blue didn't understand tariffs when she drew up the lunatic formula for the "tariffs" imposed on the US. MAGA voters think tariffs mean everyone else pays Murica.
The rest of the world? Like literally everyone else, we understand. Reported but understated is the almost embarrassed laughter being aimed at America. As the "tariffs" being imposed by ROW on the US don't exist, its impossible for them to be lifted, nor can many of these nations buy the "many billions of dollars in US goods" demanded.
The only deal which can be achieved is Trump climbing down. With the world laughing even harder at him. I can't see it happening. At which point we move past the negotiated settlement phase and into reciprocity and beyond.
If anyone still gives a fuck about it, there was an excellent long article on the SMO in the NYT on Sunday.
Some interesting snippets...
The UK has a lot of pull in Kiev because of the amount of troops (and others) they have inside Ukraine. In contrast to the US who go no further east than Wiesbaden. Which was news to me. SKS will be in the shit if any get captured.
Zaluzhniy was a fucking nightmare to deal with and he wouldn't speak to Gen. Miley. When Miley wanted to talk to him he had to call the CO of the California National Guard who spoke to some Ukrainian oligarch in LA with absolutely no links to organised crime. This guy would speak to the Ukranian Defence Minister who would then make Zaluzhniy phone Miley.
Zelenskiy, Zaluzhniy and Syrsky completed buggered the cucksteroffensive through infighting and micro-management against the advice of Gen. Donahue.
The combination of CIA intel + HIMARS was devastating and they rocked the Russians back to almost the point of defeat several times but the Ukrainian generals wouldn't press an advantage when they had it to the fury and frustration of the much more aggressive Americans.
Good article. The type of in-depth reportage you would never see in a British newspaper in a million years.
Very interesting. Thanks.
Meduza (shady Baltic outfit, possible CIA psyop but reliably anti-Russian) have finally done an English translation of their long article on the state of play inside Ukraine with a lot of detail on the 'Бусифікація'/'Busification' phenomenon which I have not seen reported on before in the Anglosphere. Not saying it hasn't been, just that I haven't seen it.
The point being that Brexit was an economic disaster, and "only 10%" doesn't even begin to make up for it
No it wasn't Scott. Covid was an economic disaster. The Ukraine war was an economic disaster. Trumponomics might well be an economic disaster, Brexit was an invisible blip by comparison. My expectation is still that it will be a long-term positive, as I think there is a risk of the European economy going through some pretty turbulent times, but either way it is small beer compared to three other economic disasters that have happened since.
Seeing Brexit in isolation from the Trump tariffs, Covid and the Ukraine war makes no sense. Leaving the EU left us more exposed to the consequences of all three.
The point being that Brexit was an economic disaster, and "only 10%" doesn't even begin to make up for it
No it wasn't Scott. Covid was an economic disaster. The Ukraine war was an economic disaster. Trumponomics might well be an economic disaster, Brexit was an invisible blip by comparison. My expectation is still that it will be a long-term positive, as I think there is a risk of the European economy going through some pretty turbulent times, but either way it is small beer compared to three other economic disasters that have happened since.
Come now, I wouldn't have expected such a narrow parochial view from you. Brexit may, compared to Covid etc, be a relatively small blip on UK economic prospects, but you're completely ignoring the way both French wine makers and German car manufacturers have been completely destroyed by Brexit
(The German car manufacturers are a bit fucked, actually, although I'm not sure we can completely credit Brexit)
PB continues with its brilliant ability to tie whatever is going on in the world to a referendum held nearly nine years ago.
Well.. it's affected our lives ever since...
Onthread.. why would anyone expect Govts to handle anything well. Post 1945 everything pretty much has been one fuck up after another. All parties are guilty of incompetence.
Let's look at the evidence
Competent Prime Minister's None Competent Chancellor of the Exchequer Only One. KEN Clarke
I thought it would be realised in basic terms like GDP - a kind of sorpasso - but no. It has arrived in voluntary American resignation, America admitting it is not hegemonic and no longer pre-eminent and all powerful and it must retreat and defend. That day arrived yesterday, tho Trump probably believes the opposite
One of the biggest issues for the Chinese government right now must be to not be seen to gloat, but they are surely very tempted to do so.
It’s definitely possible that we get a realignment towards China. All they have to do is basically nothing: Just by being a stable, predictable partner they will look like a more reliable place to build economic ties than the US.
You are trying to spin yesterday's crushing defeat as a glorious victory
Brexit looks as dumb today as it did yesterday, and will continue to do so
I do not need to spin something that is obvious
Brexit has happened and we need to take the opportunities now on offer across the globe
You will always lament Brexit but the UK is not about to rejoin the EU anytime soon
What Brexit opportunities?
Let's say Brexit has cost us £5 ( if you think that number too high, pick any number greater than £1). Trump has charged us a £1 tariff giving a total of Brexit plus Trump of £6. If we remained in the EU that tariff would be doubled to £2 giving us £7. But we didn't Brexit so we can remove the £5 cost of Brexit. So without Brexit our tariff cost is £2. With Brexit our Brexit plus tariff cost is £6.
So long as the cost of Brexit ( in my exercise) is greater than £1, we have still lost out by Brexiting.
The problem for many is the fact they didn't accept the referendum vote and the political class decided to have a bun fight over the issue rather than getting together and landing on a sensible solution
I voted remain but accepted the verdict and whilst it has faults it still is the way forward, especially in this new trading environment, and the politicians need to take the opportunity for a new world order to everyone's benefit excluding the US of course
So do I accept the vote, and I also accept the EU won't want us back anytime soon with King Nigel waiting in the wings. All that said and done I wouldn't take that extra step you have taken and sell Brexit as a win for Britain.
In the longer term it may well have proved an excellent decision
You are trying to spin yesterday's crushing defeat as a glorious victory
Brexit looks as dumb today as it did yesterday, and will continue to do so
Remoaners are always speciously pointing to the perceived lack of 'Brexit benefits' as if Brexit was meant to be an instant pay cheque, not a freedom that requires actual use to be enjoyed.
Well, by happy coincidence, here you go. Just by being outside the EU, tariffs on our exports to the US are halved vs. those being levied on those from the bloc. And it's happened regardless of how shit the British Government is. You're welcome.
I would be interested to know what you do or did for a living? Did you actually export? Actually have real experience of the barriers Brexit caused. To anyone familiar with preparing carnets should be able to tell you.
I can't see how this point is remotely connected with the point I just made.
Really? Just trying to find out if you have any experience of what you say on here. I have. So do you have any real knowledge of exporting to the EU pre and post Brexit? Have you ever filled in a carnet for instance and sat there at customs having a conversation with a French customs officer.
Maybe practical experience of the pre and post Brexit issues might change your views.
So what do you do?
I don't consider that to be any of your business.
Especially given that my point above has shit all to do with post-Brexit trade frictions with the EU, which I have never denied or belittled.
As an aside, a personal insight into the frustrations of exporting to the EU post-Brexit would not remotely change my views on the wider subject, for many reasons.
Hmm, it isn't, but you pontificate on stuff and we have no idea of your expertise or experience and just about everyone else here has given their background on stuff without doxing themselves.
And to say personal insight into a subject would not change your views on something is mind boggling. I don't know about you, but if I need an operation I go to a surgeon, if I want a bridge built I go to a civil engineer, etc. I don't go to some person with no experience who just gives his/her opinion with no actual experience and thinks actual knowledge might not change his/her mind on stuff.
I thought it would be realised in basic terms like GDP - a kind of sorpasso - but no. It has arrived in voluntary American resignation, America admitting it is not hegemonic and no longer pre-eminent and all powerful and it must retreat and defend. That day arrived yesterday, tho Trump probably believes the opposite
One of the biggest issues for the Chinese government right now must be to not be seen to gloat, but they are surely very tempted to do so.
The Chinese are very good at quietly accepting the benefits of terrible decisions made in the US and Europe. But Trump gifting them Asia, Africa and Latin America, while facilitating an unfreezing of relationships with European countries is probably more than they could have hoped for.
When the Trump presidency ends in ignominy, a lot of the people now cheerleading him will deny ever having backed it.
I think he’s just copying and pasting things people have said to him about Brexit.
Hannan still seems bewitched by the ghosts of Thatcher and Reagan. These are now discredited figures on the Right. He needs to move on or will find himself horribly marginalized.
Piquantly I am writing this in the Afrosiyab museum in Samarkand with its famous murals from a Sogdian palace - 7th century pre Islamic Samarkand - depicting Turkish, Chinese, Persian, Tibetan, Korean (?!) ambassadors and merchants and royals riding elephants and hunting panthers and bearing silks - on the Silk Road. The iconic world trade that made Samarkand rich in the first place
Tariffs. two points. On the article: I don't suppose one person in a thousand understands international trade, its barriers and constraints, well enough to have any idea what would count as handling the matter well or badly.
Secondly; it is easy to find comment saying 'Trump is marvellous, it's liberation day'; and easy to find comment saying 'Terrible; global slump coming, we are all doomed'. This doesn't seem to add a lot.
Does anyone know of well informed comment capable balancing the issues, and in particular knowing how other countries might have been using the instruments and barriers of international trade to their own advantage and against the USA?
PB continues with its brilliant ability to tie whatever is going on in the world to a referendum held nearly nine years ago.
Well.. it's affected our lives ever since...
Onthread.. why would anyone expect Govts to handle anything well. Post 1945 everything pretty much has been one fuck up after another. All parties are guilty of incompetence.
Let's look at the evidence
Competent Prime Minister's None Competent Chancellor of the Exchequer Only One. KEN Clarke
On the CofE:
I agree that many of the CofE's have been poor in the role, if not failures. Yet many of them, whether Conservative or Labour, have been far from stupid. Brown was not stupid. Darling was not stupid. Osborne was not stupid. Ditto Hammond, or Sunak.
You may not like them, for their politics or otherwise, but they were *not* thick.
Yet it can be argued they all performed poorly. And this is interesting, to me at least, because it indicates the problem may not be the people, but the role of CofE and the way the department interacts with the rest of the government.
Taking this further: may it be very difficult, if not impossible, for a CofE to be successful without a reform of the exchequer and wider government?
You are trying to spin yesterday's crushing defeat as a glorious victory
Brexit looks as dumb today as it did yesterday, and will continue to do so
I do not need to spin something that is obvious
Brexit has happened and we need to take the opportunities now on offer across the globe
You will always lament Brexit but the UK is not about to rejoin the EU anytime soon
What Brexit opportunities?
Let's say Brexit has cost us £5 ( if you think that number too high, pick any number greater than £1). Trump has charged us a £1 tariff giving a total of Brexit plus Trump of £6. If we remained in the EU that tariff would be doubled to £2 giving us £7. But we didn't Brexit so we can remove the £5 cost of Brexit. So without Brexit our tariff cost is £2. With Brexit our Brexit plus tariff cost is £6.
So long as the cost of Brexit ( in my exercise) is greater than £1, we have still lost out by Brexiting.
The problem for many is the fact they didn't accept the referendum vote and the political class decided to have a bun fight over the issue rather than getting together and landing on a sensible solution
I voted remain but accepted the verdict and whilst it has faults it still is the way forward, especially in this new trading environment, and the politicians need to take the opportunity for a new world order to everyone's benefit excluding the US of course
So do I accept the vote, and I also accept the EU won't want us back anytime soon with King Nigel waiting in the wings. All that said and done I wouldn't take that extra step you have taken and sell Brexit as a win for Britain.
In the longer term it may well have proved an excellent decision
We are long past the point where it would be easy to disentangle the effects of Brexit from all the other economic and political cross currents that we have seen since we left the EU, so I'm not sure such discussions have much merit any longer. However, I do have a personal interest in the matter.
Not long after the vote I offered to polish with my tongue the shoes of every single Brexiteer on PB if leaving was an economic success. As objective criteria I nominated our credit rating, which had been cut, and the exchange rate, which had droppred down to about £1/1.08euros. If our credit rating were restored and the rate returned to £1/1,3euros, polishing would commence immediately.
I think we are well past the point now where one could expect both conditions to be not only met but also plainly attributable to the economic benefits of leaving the EU. My offer is therefore now withdrawn.
Comments
"But what about the Brexit benefit????"
Getting a deal with Trump doesn't remotely compensate for the opportunity cost of Brexit. The trade off is of course hypothetical because we've Brexited anyway.
There is another which says this is an opportunity for the RoW to win the trade war, as the MAGA idiots who voted for Trumpski have zero appetite for the fight he has landed them in
And you are blinded to the opportunity this opens to many countries, including the EU, to develop a mutually beneficial security and trading association much wider than just the EU
Indeed Ed Davey said as much yesterday
A person might have a trade deficit with the milkman, that doesn't meant it would make sense for them to give up their well paid office job and buy a cow to redress the trade imbalance. Yet that is essentially what Trump is trying to do at a national scale.
Brexit looks as dumb today as it did yesterday, and will continue to do so
* We should probably try and do a deal on the car tariffs.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china-japan-south-korea-will-jointly-respond-us-tariffs-chinese-state-media-says-2025-03-31/?fbclid=IwY2xjawJbH-RleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHQkHsvu0-hlATl4w8J6m-JPbXRJmI_YT1wJP4Cdde6KSoLxoM0iDoyuDrQ_aem_ovfQySvlMjadf3vIj3ipVA
From about 2008 on this site, albeit often under the name Martin Day, I’ve been predicting that China would overtake the USA in power and importance
I thought it would be realised in basic terms like GDP - a kind of sorpasso - but no. It has arrived in voluntary American resignation, America admitting it is not hegemonic and no longer pre-eminent and all powerful and it must retreat and defend. That day arrived yesterday, tho Trump probably believes the opposite
I tried to simplify it to my kid like this: you buy something at the store for $50. Then Trump says that store stole $50 from you so he's going to tax the store $25. Store now charges $75.
https://bsky.app/profile/mmasnick.bsky.social/post/3llusi5paoc24
@willhardy.bsky.social
A big reason why we’re here is Trump has long spoken like he honestly believes trade deficits are some sort of fee America pays and should retaliate against and most people in the media were like “he can’t actually mean that, that’s way too stupid” so they covered him like he meant something else.
https://bsky.app/profile/willhardy.bsky.social/post/3llutj6rtts2p
Brexit has happened and we need to take the opportunities now on offer across the globe
You will always lament Brexit but the UK is not about to rejoin the EU anytime soon
I'll have a glass half full of whatever you're drinking.
"It was hard to find anyone with a bad word for Trump’s presidency [at Davos], which was said to promise a solidly Republican, business-friendly agenda of deregulation, tax cutting and “drill, baby, drill” repudiation of both net zero and prescriptive “diversity, inclusion and equity” dogmas."
"Virtually everyone agreed that America would boom.The tariff issue, it was widely admitted, was a concern, but wiser counsel would eventually prevail, and as in his first presidency, Trump’s bark would prove worse than his bite."
Jeremy Warner, Telegraph
If he does I expect Ed Davey to go ballistic
Well, by happy coincidence, here you go. Just by being outside the EU, tariffs on our exports to the US are halved vs. those being levied on those from the bloc. And it's happened regardless of how shit the British Government is. You're welcome.
People do not want those sort of jobs anymore and they certainly do not want the levels of pay they would offer.
Manufacturing businesses struggle to recruit skilled workers on high rates of pay.
https://x.com/EdwardJDavey/status/1907542330912960647?t=coTkSpi_Ior4onnt_2mDrw&s=19
ironeconomist.bsky.social
@ironeconomist.bsky.social
I am going to be saying this all day, but, all the bank economic models of tariffs had the dollar strengthening to offset ~40-80% of the tariff impact on prices. If you do a tariff regime so crazy the dollar weakens then you have put the Fed between a rock and a hard place.
https://bsky.app/profile/ironeconomist.bsky.social/post/3llvgvk62cc2i
Yesterday we entered a new era. Brexit was in a previous era. As you say, we need to do things differently in this new world order, and that goes beyond the EU.
Davey could very well lead the LD polling numbers to new heights, especially if Starmer continues to be Quisling and Badenoch continues not to bother reading up on boring things like tariffs which are are distraction from Real Issues like whitey being fingered for black crimes on the telly.
Let's say Brexit has cost us £5 ( if you think that number too high, pick any number of £1 or greater- it is widely accepted there has been va cost to Brexit). Trump has charged us a £1 tariff giving a total of Brexit plus Trump of £6. If we remained in the EU that tariff would be doubled to £2 giving us £7. But we didn't Brexit so we can remove the £5 cost of Brexit. So without Brexit our tariff cost is £2. With Brexit our Brexit plus tariff cost is £6.
So long as the cost of Brexit ( in my exercise) is greater than £1, we have still lost out by Brexiting.
The tariffs on our cars are exactly the same as BMW
"WHERE'S OUR BREXIT BONUS????"
Do you really think that those on the sick, the layabouts, the early retired, the unskilled, the useless want to work on an assembly line for minimum wage ?
I've seen too many workers recruited for higher paid and easier production jobs have to be got rid of within a few weeks because they're no good.
I voted remain but accepted the verdict and whilst it has faults it still is the way forward, especially in this new trading environment, and the politicians need to take the opportunity for a new world order to everyone's benefit excluding the US of course
Some interesting snippets...
The UK has a lot of pull in Kiev because of the amount of troops (and others) they have inside Ukraine. In contrast to the US who go no further east than Wiesbaden. Which was news to me. SKS will be in the shit if any get captured.
Zaluzhniy was a fucking nightmare to deal with and he wouldn't speak to Gen. Miley. When Miley wanted to talk to him he had to call the CO of the California National Guard who spoke to some Ukrainian oligarch in LA with absolutely no links to organised crime. This guy would speak to the Ukranian Defence Minister who would then make Zaluzhniy phone Miley.
Zelenskiy, Zaluzhniy and Syrsky completed buggered the cucksteroffensive through infighting and micro-management against the advice of Gen. Donahue.
The combination of CIA intel + HIMARS was devastating and they rocked the Russians back to almost the point of defeat several times but the Ukrainian generals wouldn't press an advantage when they had it to the fury and frustration of the much more aggressive Americans.
Good article. The type of in-depth reportage you would never see in a British newspaper in a million years.
Maybe practical experience of the pre and post Brexit issues might change your views.
So what do you do?
Furthermore, we seem to be able to keep huge warehousing operations going to supply us with these Chinese imports, offering jobs that are just as mechanised and with similar pay to manufacturing jobs, and are in many ways less satisfying.
I imagine the failure of the counter-offensive made the Ukrainians very reluctant to go on the offensive against the Russian lines again, even though it’s not possible for the Russians to mine the entire front with the density they mined against the counter-offensive.
(It was a total command failure to advertise the location of the counter-offensive so far in advance & so obviously.)
"Never in the field of human stupidity has so much been cost to so many by so few"
@DanielJHannan
When the Trump presidency ends in ignominy, a lot of the people now cheerleading him will deny ever having backed it.
But given the scale of human stupidity across history, that's no boast. And there's still time.
With someone sane in the White House, being part of a big trading bloc working together would also be a disincentive to hit us with tariffs due to the greater impact of any response, but, well... Trump.
Especially given that my point above has shit all to do with post-Brexit trade frictions with the EU, which I have never denied or belittled.
As an aside, a personal insight into the frustrations of exporting to the EU post-Brexit would not remotely change my views on the wider subject, for many reasons.
Hungary's actions are just not cricket.
You can explain to the EU fanatics that publishing stats on economics won’t convince Brexit voters but you can’t make them understand
So the obvious question is this - will Trump blink?
Trump doesn't understand tariffs. US Undersecretary for Trade Bonnie Blue didn't understand tariffs when she drew up the lunatic formula for the "tariffs" imposed on the US. MAGA voters think tariffs mean everyone else pays Murica.
The rest of the world? Like literally everyone else, we understand. Reported but understated is the almost embarrassed laughter being aimed at America. As the "tariffs" being imposed by ROW on the US don't exist, its impossible for them to be lifted, nor can many of these nations buy the "many billions of dollars in US goods" demanded.
The only deal which can be achieved is Trump climbing down. With the world laughing even harder at him. I can't see it happening. At which point we move past the negotiated settlement phase and into reciprocity and beyond.
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2025/03/27/please-don-t-use-my-name
(The German car manufacturers are a bit fucked, actually, although I'm not sure we can completely credit Brexit)
Onthread.. why would anyone expect Govts to handle anything well. Post 1945 everything pretty much has been one fuck up after another. All parties are guilty of incompetence.
Let's look at the evidence
Competent Prime Minister's None
Competent Chancellor of the Exchequer
Only One. KEN Clarke
And to say personal insight into a subject would not change your views on something is mind boggling. I don't know about you, but if I need an operation I go to a surgeon, if I want a bridge built I go to a civil engineer, etc. I don't go to some person with no experience who just gives his/her opinion with no actual experience and thinks actual knowledge might not change his/her mind on stuff.
The day after Trump crushes world trade
They are a really amazing glimpse of a lost world
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afrasiab_murals
https://www.propublica.org/article/inside-ice-air-deportation-flights
Who would have guessed ?
https://x.com/CountryFirstRep/status/1907559667972067531
Secondly; it is easy to find comment saying 'Trump is marvellous, it's liberation day'; and easy to find comment saying 'Terrible; global slump coming, we are all doomed'. This doesn't seem to add a lot.
Does anyone know of well informed comment capable balancing the issues, and in particular knowing how other countries might have been using the instruments and barriers of international trade to their own advantage and against the USA?
I agree that many of the CofE's have been poor in the role, if not failures. Yet many of them, whether Conservative or Labour, have been far from stupid. Brown was not stupid. Darling was not stupid. Osborne was not stupid. Ditto Hammond, or Sunak.
You may not like them, for their politics or otherwise, but they were *not* thick.
Yet it can be argued they all performed poorly. And this is interesting, to me at least, because it indicates the problem may not be the people, but the role of CofE and the way the department interacts with the rest of the government.
Taking this further: may it be very difficult, if not impossible, for a CofE to be successful without a reform of the exchequer and wider government?
Not long after the vote I offered to polish with my tongue the shoes of every single Brexiteer on PB if leaving was an economic success. As objective criteria I nominated our credit rating, which had been cut, and the exchange rate, which had droppred down to about £1/1.08euros. If our credit rating were restored and the rate returned to £1/1,3euros, polishing would commence immediately.
I think we are well past the point now where one could expect both conditions to be not only met but also plainly attributable to the economic benefits of leaving the EU. My offer is therefore now withdrawn.