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Brits are not expecting the government to handle the tariffs well – politicalbetting.com

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  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,502
    Scott_xP said:

    There is no doubt this is a positive for Brexit

    Nope

    @gilesyb.bsky.social‬

    The UK exports £360bn of goods to the EU, on which we now struggle with big non tariff barriers, compared to £60bn to the US. Imagine looking at this sh1tshow and thinking it vindicates Brexit in any way.
    So if tariffs/non-tariff barriers are BAD, you obviously think the EU are as bad as Trump, right?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,557

    Woke up with a terrible thought this morning.

    What if Trump's tariffs work? From a US POV I mean. He'll be given a third term and a landslide.

    If they work in the sense of creating more new manufacturing jobs than any cost of living rise, then a Farage government here, a government of Le Pen's party in France etc will soon be elected to follow suit and a new era of global protectionism will emerge
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,570
    Cars, which are some of our largest exports to the US, are now subject to a 25% tariff

    "But what about the Brexit benefit????"
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,098
    A decent wedge of our imports from US is medical and pharma. That's a 10% hit on NHS mainly I guess.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,813
    Eabhal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    It's also a good day at the office for Brexit.

    Bollocks

    Brexit cost the UK economy 10 times as much as 'only having 10% tariffs instead of 20%' saves
    The reason why our tariffs are lower is because our trade surplus ratio in goods with the US is smaller than the EU's. It's not actually based on the EU's tariffs on the US at all. (Hence why he claimed Cambodia has 97% tariffs - that's just their trade deficit).

    So it's a good day at the office for our sub-optimal goods exports....
    Exactly. It also means the value of any deal with the US is relatively less. This might matter if we are making concessions against our other interests.

    Getting a deal with Trump doesn't remotely compensate for the opportunity cost of Brexit. The trade off is of course hypothetical because we've Brexited anyway.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,477
    geoffw said:

    Quoting Kate Andrews in the Spectator:

    Economists and think tankers have assessed overnight that the tariff calculations are really trade deficit calculations: based not on the tax charged on imports, but the volume of trade between two nations. If the United States is importing more from another country – and so has a ‘trade deficit’ with that country – the billions of dollars that deficit amounts to seems to better reflect the tariff listed next to the country’s name than the taxes on trade they actually collect.
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/do-trumps-tariff-calculations-add-up/

    While we might justifiably be concerned about the overall current account deficit or surplus, as @DavidL often reminds us, it is a marker of pure economic ignorance to conflate that with bilateral imbalances of trade and imagine that any coherent trade policy can be based on that. Trump resorts to the basest "ripping us off" invective as if Americans' purchasing decisions were not free choices.

    As I say a lot, tariffs against the British were responsible for Germany's successful industrialisation. We have a very long history of being pro-free trade, but that is because as the largest industrial producer, that situation favoured us.
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 586
    edited April 3
    HYUFD said:

    Woke up with a terrible thought this morning.

    What if Trump's tariffs work? From a US POV I mean. He'll be given a third term and a landslide.

    If they work in the sense of creating more new manufacturing jobs than any cost of living rise, then a Farage government here, a government of Le Pen's party in France etc will soon be elected to follow suit and a new era of global protectionism will emerge
    That would upend everything we know about economic theory.... and, I mean, just look at the nasdaq and s&p futures down 4% over night... that is money pulling out of american companies and projects. All the immediate effects are exactly what we expected them to be. Detrimental to the US. And sure it will also hurt the rest of the world, but mainly in the short run and it reorganises, and even then the pain will be orders of magnitude less than what the americans will experience. They are only 12% of global gdp.... they can't dictate terms like that. There are lots of other avenues for trade and capital among the rest of us. In 5-10 years the US will be a shadow of its former self... not unlike brexit britan. Brexit is made of the exact same stuff.... another example is Liz Truss' fiscal event or as the daily express called it: the first true brexit budget. I think this is the key wakness of right wing populism... it doesnt understand how things work... it believes its own delusions.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,570
    There is one school of thought which says the best course of action is to do nothing. Stand back and let the madman covered in gasoline burn

    There is another which says this is an opportunity for the RoW to win the trade war, as the MAGA idiots who voted for Trumpski have zero appetite for the fight he has landed them in
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,920
    Scott_xP said:

    There is no doubt this is a positive for Brexit

    Nope

    @gilesyb.bsky.social‬

    The UK exports £360bn of goods to the EU, on which we now struggle with big non tariff barriers, compared to £60bn to the US. Imagine looking at this sh1tshow and thinking it vindicates Brexit in any way.
    You are fighting yesterday's battles

    And you are blinded to the opportunity this opens to many countries, including the EU, to develop a mutually beneficial security and trading association much wider than just the EU

    Indeed Ed Davey said as much yesterday
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,978
    Any EU country with a significant trade surplus with the US has done (relatively) very well out of this, protected by the EU-wide average. That's Germany and Italy (I guess Ireland is mainly services).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,557
    Scott_xP said:

    HYUFD said:

    To an extent the government have had a small boost in that the US tariffs imposed on the UK are lower than those imposed on the EU, Japan, China, India, South Africa etc . Regardless of any subsequent UK response

    Entirely by luck
    Mainly as the US has a lower trade deficit with us already
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,967
    A broad hint from Gvt on R4 this morning that a draft deal is already heading towards the Mango Mussolini's desk
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,284
    Ratters said:

    The Trump Tariff formula in full:

    The greater of

    - 10%
    and
    - 50% * (US trade deficit in goods to country/ total goods imported by the US from said country)

    Starmer's sucking up to Trump had no impact. It just so happens we don't have a trade surplus in goods with the US.

    https://on.ft.com/4iVuZts

    Seems to work on countries in the new list, including best pal Netanyahu's Israel (tariff 17%). Canada and Mexico get special treatment. As do "Column 2" countries Russia, Belarus, North Korea and Cuba. Though I haven't found out for sure what the Russia tariff currently is, it says 35% in a document from 2022, but that might be out of date.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,570

    You are fighting yesterday's battles

    You are trying to spin yesterday's crushing defeat as a glorious victory

    Brexit looks as dumb today as it did yesterday, and will continue to do so
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,967

    A decent wedge of our imports from US is medical and pharma. That's a 10% hit on NHS mainly I guess.

    There aren't any new restrictions coming the other way?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,088
    edited April 3
    Can't fault the govts approach to the tariffs myself *. Do we want our goods to be more expensive from the US. Anyway 10% is no worse than our own VAT.
    * We should probably try and do a deal on the car tariffs.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,919
    Scott_xP said:

    I think the reality is the economy will absolutely tank and Trump will just lie about it and refuse to accept reality and the GOP will clap like seals. I wouldn't be surprised if he closes all the stats agencies that do stuff like consumer price index or just installs liars into them.

    He has already said that any bad economic indicators are "fake news"

    The problem he has (maybe) is that US consumers don't care about Global macroeconomics, but absolutely care about the cost of living, which is about to spike harder than they have ever seen
    TwiX and Google will simply not allow the bad news to be seen.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,570
    @mmasnick.bsky.social‬

    I tried to simplify it to my kid like this: you buy something at the store for $50. Then Trump says that store stole $50 from you so he's going to tax the store $25. Store now charges $75.

    https://bsky.app/profile/mmasnick.bsky.social/post/3llusi5paoc24

    @willhardy.bsky.social‬

    A big reason why we’re here is Trump has long spoken like he honestly believes trade deficits are some sort of fee America pays and should retaliate against and most people in the media were like “he can’t actually mean that, that’s way too stupid” so they covered him like he meant something else.

    https://bsky.app/profile/willhardy.bsky.social/post/3llutj6rtts2p
  • FYI - If you do not know who Bonnie Blue is you should NOT google her.

    What’s she proposing now?
    Pegging the dollar with the dildo of consequences ?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,920
    Scott_xP said:

    You are fighting yesterday's battles

    You are trying to spin yesterday's crushing defeat as a glorious victory

    Brexit looks as dumb today as it did yesterday, and will continue to do so
    I do not need to spin something that is obvious

    Brexit has happened and we need to take the opportunities now on offer across the globe

    You will always lament Brexit but the UK is not about to rejoin the EU anytime soon
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,946

    Scott_xP said:

    It's also a good day at the office for Brexit.

    Bollocks

    Brexit cost the UK economy 10 times as much as 'only having 10% tariffs instead of 20%' saves
    There is no doubt this is a positive for Brexit and certainly will make the case to rejoin much harder to make

    However, there is a real opportunity for an exciting and new arrangement with countries across the globe coming together in a new and wider security and trading association

    The question to be asked is are today's politicians and leaders capable of delivering such a opportunity?
    Blimey!

    I'll have a glass half full of whatever you're drinking.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,660
    tlg86 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    There is no doubt this is a positive for Brexit

    Nope

    @gilesyb.bsky.social‬

    The UK exports £360bn of goods to the EU, on which we now struggle with big non tariff barriers, compared to £60bn to the US. Imagine looking at this sh1tshow and thinking it vindicates Brexit in any way.
    So if tariffs/non-tariff barriers are BAD, you obviously think the EU are as bad as Trump, right?
    We demanded the barriers, not the EU. Tret us like a 3rd country Boris demanded.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,946
    Scott_xP said:

    There is no doubt this is a positive for Brexit

    Nope

    @gilesyb.bsky.social‬

    The UK exports £360bn of goods to the EU, on which we now struggle with big non tariff barriers, compared to £60bn to the US. Imagine looking at this sh1tshow and thinking it vindicates Brexit in any way.
    As Brexit was an exercise in smoke and mirrors, a big win can be claimed.
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 586
    Scott_xP said:

    You are fighting yesterday's battles

    You are trying to spin yesterday's crushing defeat as a glorious victory

    Brexit looks as dumb today as it did yesterday, and will continue to do so
    100% Not only that... the vast majority of the electorate want to get back in, the vast majority of parliament want to get back in.... this is just a question of how long the government can fight political gravity....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,098
    Scott_xP said:

    @mmasnick.bsky.social‬

    I tried to simplify it to my kid like this: you buy something at the store for $50. Then Trump says that store stole $50 from you so he's going to tax the store $25. Store now charges $75.

    https://bsky.app/profile/mmasnick.bsky.social/post/3llusi5paoc24

    @willhardy.bsky.social‬

    A big reason why we’re here is Trump has long spoken like he honestly believes trade deficits are some sort of fee America pays and should retaliate against and most people in the media were like “he can’t actually mean that, that’s way too stupid” so they covered him like he meant something else.

    https://bsky.app/profile/willhardy.bsky.social/post/3llutj6rtts2p


    "It was hard to find anyone with a bad word for Trump’s presidency [at Davos], which was said to promise a solidly Republican, business-friendly agenda of deregulation, tax cutting and “drill, baby, drill” repudiation of both net zero and prescriptive “diversity, inclusion and equity” dogmas."

    "Virtually everyone agreed that America would boom.The tariff issue, it was widely admitted, was a concern, but wiser counsel would eventually prevail, and as in his first presidency, Trump’s bark would prove worse than his bite."

    Jeremy Warner, Telegraph
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,920
    IanB2 said:

    A broad hint from Gvt on R4 this morning that a draft deal is already heading towards the Mango Mussolini's desk

    I would not be surprised if Starmer is about to remove the DST which raises 800 million pa

    If he does I expect Ed Davey to go ballistic
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,477
    edited April 3
    Scott_xP said:

    You are fighting yesterday's battles

    You are trying to spin yesterday's crushing defeat as a glorious victory

    Brexit looks as dumb today as it did yesterday, and will continue to do so
    Remoaners are always speciously pointing to the perceived lack of 'Brexit benefits' as if Brexit was meant to be an instant pay cheque, not a freedom that requires actual use to be enjoyed.

    Well, by happy coincidence, here you go. Just by being outside the EU, tariffs on our exports to the US are halved vs. those being levied on those from the bloc. And it's happened regardless of how shit the British Government is. You're welcome.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,098
    IanB2 said:

    A decent wedge of our imports from US is medical and pharma. That's a 10% hit on NHS mainly I guess.

    There aren't any new restrictions coming the other way?
    Not sure what that means?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,413
    HYUFD said:

    Woke up with a terrible thought this morning.

    What if Trump's tariffs work? From a US POV I mean. He'll be given a third term and a landslide.

    If they work in the sense of creating more new manufacturing jobs than any cost of living rise, then a Farage government here, a government of Le Pen's party in France etc will soon be elected to follow suit and a new era of global protectionism will emerge
    Where are these hordes of people who want to work on a 1950s style assembly line for minimum wage ?

    People do not want those sort of jobs anymore and they certainly do not want the levels of pay they would offer.

    Manufacturing businesses struggle to recruit skilled workers on high rates of pay.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,920
    edited April 3

    Scott_xP said:

    It's also a good day at the office for Brexit.

    Bollocks

    Brexit cost the UK economy 10 times as much as 'only having 10% tariffs instead of 20%' saves
    There is no doubt this is a positive for Brexit and certainly will make the case to rejoin much harder to make

    However, there is a real opportunity for an exciting and new arrangement with countries across the globe coming together in a new and wider security and trading association

    The question to be asked is are today's politicians and leaders capable of delivering such a opportunity?
    Blimey!

    I'll have a glass half full of whatever you're drinking.
    Maybe read Ed Davey press release

    https://x.com/EdwardJDavey/status/1907542330912960647?t=coTkSpi_Ior4onnt_2mDrw&s=19
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,991
    Pulpstar said:

    Can't fault the govts approach to the tariffs myself *. Do we want our goods to be more expensive from the US. Anyway 10% is no worse than our own VAT.
    * We should probably try and do a deal on the car tariffs.

    Any deal will involve grovelling to Trump and I would prefer we didn’t embarrass ourselves on a global stage like that to be honest.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,477

    HYUFD said:

    Woke up with a terrible thought this morning.

    What if Trump's tariffs work? From a US POV I mean. He'll be given a third term and a landslide.

    If they work in the sense of creating more new manufacturing jobs than any cost of living rise, then a Farage government here, a government of Le Pen's party in France etc will soon be elected to follow suit and a new era of global protectionism will emerge
    Where are these hordes of people who want to work on a 1950s style assembly line for minimum wage ?

    People do not want those sort of jobs anymore and they certainly do not want the levels of pay they would offer.

    Manufacturing businesses struggle to recruit skilled workers on high rates of pay.
    There is absolutely zero evidence that people would rather rot on the dole than work in manufacturing. They haven't had the choice because manufacturing in the UK (and one must assume also in the US to an extent) has been made virtually impossible.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,098

    ironeconomist.bsky.social
    @ironeconomist.bsky.social‬

    I am going to be saying this all day, but, all the bank economic models of tariffs had the dollar strengthening to offset ~40-80% of the tariff impact on prices. If you do a tariff regime so crazy the dollar weakens then you have put the Fed between a rock and a hard place.

    https://bsky.app/profile/ironeconomist.bsky.social/post/3llvgvk62cc2i
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,660

    Scott_xP said:

    There is no doubt this is a positive for Brexit

    Nope

    @gilesyb.bsky.social‬

    The UK exports £360bn of goods to the EU, on which we now struggle with big non tariff barriers, compared to £60bn to the US. Imagine looking at this sh1tshow and thinking it vindicates Brexit in any way.
    You are fighting yesterday's battles

    And you are blinded to the opportunity this opens to many countries, including the EU, to develop a mutually beneficial security and trading association much wider than just the EU

    Indeed Ed Davey said as much yesterday
    We need to move on from Brexit - I have seen morons suggesting that 10-25% tariffs is a "Brexit bonus". It is not. Nor does that require endless whining about Brexit.

    Yesterday we entered a new era. Brexit was in a previous era. As you say, we need to do things differently in this new world order, and that goes beyond the EU.

    Davey could very well lead the LD polling numbers to new heights, especially if Starmer continues to be Quisling and Badenoch continues not to bother reading up on boring things like tariffs which are are distraction from Real Issues like whitey being fingered for black crimes on the telly.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,392

    Scott_xP said:

    You are fighting yesterday's battles

    You are trying to spin yesterday's crushing defeat as a glorious victory

    Brexit looks as dumb today as it did yesterday, and will continue to do so
    Remoaners are always speciously pointing to the perceived lack of 'Brexit benefits' as if Brexit was meant to be an instant pay cheque, not a freedom that requires actual use to be enjoyed.

    Well, by happy coincidence, here you go. Just by being outside the EU, tariffs on our exports to the US are halved vs. those being levied on those from the bloc. And it's happened regardless of how shit the British Government is. You're welcome.
    I would be interested to know what you do or did for a living? Did you actually export? Actually have real experience of the barriers Brexit caused. To anyone familiar with preparing carnets should be able to tell you.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,991
    edited April 3

    HYUFD said:

    Woke up with a terrible thought this morning.

    What if Trump's tariffs work? From a US POV I mean. He'll be given a third term and a landslide.

    If they work in the sense of creating more new manufacturing jobs than any cost of living rise, then a Farage government here, a government of Le Pen's party in France etc will soon be elected to follow suit and a new era of global protectionism will emerge
    Where are these hordes of people who want to work on a 1950s style assembly line for minimum wage ?

    People do not want those sort of jobs anymore and they certainly do not want the levels of pay they would offer.

    Manufacturing businesses struggle to recruit skilled workers on high rates of pay.
    There is absolutely zero evidence that people would rather rot on the dole than work in manufacturing. They haven't had the choice because manufacturing in the UK (and one must assume also in the US to an extent) has been made virtually impossible.
    Literally rubbish. There’s plenty of manufacturing in the UK and the US. It just isn’t low value or low value added.
  • scampi25scampi25 Posts: 75

    IanB2 said:

    A broad hint from Gvt on R4 this morning that a draft deal is already heading towards the Mango Mussolini's desk

    I would not be surprised if Starmer is about to remove the DST which raises 800 million pa

    If he does I expect Ed Davey to go ballistic
    Sounds like a good plan!🤣
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,477
    kjh said:

    Scott_xP said:

    You are fighting yesterday's battles

    You are trying to spin yesterday's crushing defeat as a glorious victory

    Brexit looks as dumb today as it did yesterday, and will continue to do so
    Remoaners are always speciously pointing to the perceived lack of 'Brexit benefits' as if Brexit was meant to be an instant pay cheque, not a freedom that requires actual use to be enjoyed.

    Well, by happy coincidence, here you go. Just by being outside the EU, tariffs on our exports to the US are halved vs. those being levied on those from the bloc. And it's happened regardless of how shit the British Government is. You're welcome.
    I would be interested to know what you do or did for a living? Did you actually export? Actually have real experience of the barriers Brexit caused. To anyone familiar with preparing carnets should be able to tell you.
    I can't see how this point is remotely connected with the point I just made.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,946
    edited April 3

    Scott_xP said:

    You are fighting yesterday's battles

    You are trying to spin yesterday's crushing defeat as a glorious victory

    Brexit looks as dumb today as it did yesterday, and will continue to do so
    I do not need to spin something that is obvious

    Brexit has happened and we need to take the opportunities now on offer across the globe

    You will always lament Brexit but the UK is not about to rejoin the EU anytime soon
    What Brexit opportunities?

    Let's say Brexit has cost us £5 ( if you think that number too high, pick any number of £1 or greater- it is widely accepted there has been va cost to Brexit). Trump has charged us a £1 tariff giving a total of Brexit plus Trump of £6. If we remained in the EU that tariff would be doubled to £2 giving us £7. But we didn't Brexit so we can remove the £5 cost of Brexit. So without Brexit our tariff cost is £2. With Brexit our Brexit plus tariff cost is £6.

    So long as the cost of Brexit ( in my exercise) is greater than £1, we have still lost out by Brexiting.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,570

    Just by being outside the EU, tariffs on our exports to the US are halved vs. those being levied on those from the bloc.

    Nope

    The tariffs on our cars are exactly the same as BMW

    "WHERE'S OUR BREXIT BONUS????"
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,584


    ironeconomist.bsky.social
    @ironeconomist.bsky.social‬

    I am going to be saying this all day, but, all the bank economic models of tariffs had the dollar strengthening to offset ~40-80% of the tariff impact on prices. If you do a tariff regime so crazy the dollar weakens then you have put the Fed between a rock and a hard place.

    https://bsky.app/profile/ironeconomist.bsky.social/post/3llvgvk62cc2i

    The $ is tanking.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,477
    scampi25 said:

    IanB2 said:

    A broad hint from Gvt on R4 this morning that a draft deal is already heading towards the Mango Mussolini's desk

    I would not be surprised if Starmer is about to remove the DST which raises 800 million pa

    If he does I expect Ed Davey to go ballistic
    Sounds like a good plan!🤣
    Personally I think it's a horrible plan. We should threaten to increase it.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,477
    Scott_xP said:

    Just by being outside the EU, tariffs on our exports to the US are halved vs. those being levied on those from the bloc.

    Nope

    The tariffs on our cars are exactly the same as BMW

    "WHERE'S OUR BREXIT BONUS????"
    Yes. And? If you'd like me to rephrase and add - *on everything except cars - I am happy to do so. The original argument is unchanged.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,413

    HYUFD said:

    Woke up with a terrible thought this morning.

    What if Trump's tariffs work? From a US POV I mean. He'll be given a third term and a landslide.

    If they work in the sense of creating more new manufacturing jobs than any cost of living rise, then a Farage government here, a government of Le Pen's party in France etc will soon be elected to follow suit and a new era of global protectionism will emerge
    Where are these hordes of people who want to work on a 1950s style assembly line for minimum wage ?

    People do not want those sort of jobs anymore and they certainly do not want the levels of pay they would offer.

    Manufacturing businesses struggle to recruit skilled workers on high rates of pay.
    There is absolutely zero evidence that people would rather rot on the dole than work in manufacturing. They haven't had the choice because manufacturing in the UK (and one must assume also in the US to an extent) has been made virtually impossible.
    There's lots of evidence and every factory manager would be able to give it.

    Do you really think that those on the sick, the layabouts, the early retired, the unskilled, the useless want to work on an assembly line for minimum wage ?

    I've seen too many workers recruited for higher paid and easier production jobs have to be got rid of within a few weeks because they're no good.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,920

    Scott_xP said:

    You are fighting yesterday's battles

    You are trying to spin yesterday's crushing defeat as a glorious victory

    Brexit looks as dumb today as it did yesterday, and will continue to do so
    I do not need to spin something that is obvious

    Brexit has happened and we need to take the opportunities now on offer across the globe

    You will always lament Brexit but the UK is not about to rejoin the EU anytime soon
    What Brexit opportunities?

    Let's say Brexit has cost us £5 ( if you think that number too high, pick any number greater than £1). Trump has charged us a £1 tariff giving a total of Brexit plus Trump of £6. If we remained in the EU that tariff would be doubled to £2 giving us £7. But we didn't Brexit so we can remove the £5 cost of Brexit. So without Brexit our tariff cost is £2. With Brexit our Brexit plus tariff cost is £6.

    So long as the cost of Brexit ( in my exercise) is greater than £1, we have still lost out by Brexiting.
    The problem for many is the fact they didn't accept the referendum vote and the political class decided to have a bun fight over the issue rather than getting together and landing on a sensible solution

    I voted remain but accepted the verdict and whilst it has faults it still is the way forward, especially in this new trading environment, and the politicians need to take the opportunity for a new world order to everyone's benefit excluding the US of course
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,946


    ironeconomist.bsky.social
    @ironeconomist.bsky.social‬

    I am going to be saying this all day, but, all the bank economic models of tariffs had the dollar strengthening to offset ~40-80% of the tariff impact on prices. If you do a tariff regime so crazy the dollar weakens then you have put the Fed between a rock and a hard place.

    https://bsky.app/profile/ironeconomist.bsky.social/post/3llvgvk62cc2i

    The $ is tanking.
    Genius! Exports cheaper, imports more expensive. 4D chess played like never before!
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,660
    Scott_xP said:

    Just by being outside the EU, tariffs on our exports to the US are halved vs. those being levied on those from the bloc.

    Nope

    The tariffs on our cars are exactly the same as BMW

    "WHERE'S OUR BREXIT BONUS????"
    Liar. We Dun Gud. RULE BRITANNIA
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,345
    Dura_Ace said:

    If anyone still gives a fuck about it, there was an excellent long article on the SMO in the NYT on Sunday.




    Some interesting snippets...

    The UK has a lot of pull in Kiev because of the amount of troops (and others) they have inside Ukraine. In contrast to the US who go no further east than Wiesbaden. Which was news to me. SKS will be in the shit if any get captured.

    Zaluzhniy was a fucking nightmare to deal with and he wouldn't speak to Gen. Miley. When Miley wanted to talk to him he had to call the CO of the California National Guard who spoke to some Ukrainian oligarch in LA with absolutely no links to organised crime. This guy would speak to the Ukranian Defence Minister who would then make Zaluzhniy phone Miley.

    Zelenskiy, Zaluzhniy and Syrsky completed buggered the cucksteroffensive through infighting and micro-management against the advice of Gen. Donahue.

    The combination of CIA intel + HIMARS was devastating and they rocked the Russians back to almost the point of defeat several times but the Ukrainian generals wouldn't press an advantage when they had it to the fury and frustration of the much more aggressive Americans.

    Good article. The type of in-depth reportage you would never see in a British newspaper in a million years.

    Very interesting. Thanks.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,392

    kjh said:

    Scott_xP said:

    You are fighting yesterday's battles

    You are trying to spin yesterday's crushing defeat as a glorious victory

    Brexit looks as dumb today as it did yesterday, and will continue to do so
    Remoaners are always speciously pointing to the perceived lack of 'Brexit benefits' as if Brexit was meant to be an instant pay cheque, not a freedom that requires actual use to be enjoyed.

    Well, by happy coincidence, here you go. Just by being outside the EU, tariffs on our exports to the US are halved vs. those being levied on those from the bloc. And it's happened regardless of how shit the British Government is. You're welcome.
    I would be interested to know what you do or did for a living? Did you actually export? Actually have real experience of the barriers Brexit caused. To anyone familiar with preparing carnets should be able to tell you.
    I can't see how this point is remotely connected with the point I just made.
    Really? Just trying to find out if you have any experience of what you say on here. I have. So do you have any real knowledge of exporting to the EU pre and post Brexit? Have you ever filled in a carnet for instance and sat there at customs having a conversation with a French customs officer.

    Maybe practical experience of the pre and post Brexit issues might change your views.

    So what do you do?
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,534

    Scott_xP said:

    You are fighting yesterday's battles

    You are trying to spin yesterday's crushing defeat as a glorious victory

    Brexit looks as dumb today as it did yesterday, and will continue to do so
    Remoaners are always speciously pointing to the perceived lack of 'Brexit benefits' as if Brexit was meant to be an instant pay cheque, not a freedom that requires actual use to be enjoyed.

    Well, by happy coincidence, here you go. Just by being outside the EU, tariffs on our exports to the US are halved vs. those being levied on those from the bloc. And it's happened regardless of how shit the British Government is. You're welcome.
    Our car industry gets hit with 25% though.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,088
    Dura_Ace said:

    If anyone still gives a fuck about it, there was an excellent long article on the SMO in the NYT on Sunday.




    Some interesting snippets...

    The UK has a lot of pull in Kiev because of the amount of troops (and others) they have inside Ukraine. In contrast to the US who go no further east than Wiesbaden. Which was news to me. SKS will be in the shit if any get captured.

    Zaluzhniy was a fucking nightmare to deal with and he wouldn't speak to Gen. Miley. When Miley wanted to talk to him he had to call the CO of the California National Guard who spoke to some Ukrainian oligarch in LA with absolutely no links to organised crime. This guy would speak to the Ukranian Defence Minister who would then make Zaluzhniy phone Miley.

    Zelenskiy, Zaluzhniy and Syrsky completed buggered the cucksteroffensive through infighting and micro-management against the advice of Gen. Donahue.

    The combination of CIA intel + HIMARS was devastating and they rocked the Russians back to almost the point of defeat several times but the Ukrainian generals wouldn't press an advantage when they had it to the fury and frustration of the much more aggressive Americans.

    Good article. The type of in-depth reportage you would never see in a British newspaper in a million years.

    SKS will be in the shit if any get captured. by Baltic swamps ?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,477

    HYUFD said:

    Woke up with a terrible thought this morning.

    What if Trump's tariffs work? From a US POV I mean. He'll be given a third term and a landslide.

    If they work in the sense of creating more new manufacturing jobs than any cost of living rise, then a Farage government here, a government of Le Pen's party in France etc will soon be elected to follow suit and a new era of global protectionism will emerge
    Where are these hordes of people who want to work on a 1950s style assembly line for minimum wage ?

    People do not want those sort of jobs anymore and they certainly do not want the levels of pay they would offer.

    Manufacturing businesses struggle to recruit skilled workers on high rates of pay.
    There is absolutely zero evidence that people would rather rot on the dole than work in manufacturing. They haven't had the choice because manufacturing in the UK (and one must assume also in the US to an extent) has been made virtually impossible.
    There's lots of evidence and every factory manager would be able to give it.

    Do you really think that those on the sick, the layabouts, the early retired, the unskilled, the useless want to work on an assembly line for minimum wage ?

    I've seen too many workers recruited for higher paid and easier production jobs have to be got rid of within a few weeks because they're no good.
    I do if the alternatives were not more lucrative than taking up that job.

    Furthermore, we seem to be able to keep huge warehousing operations going to supply us with these Chinese imports, offering jobs that are just as mechanised and with similar pay to manufacturing jobs, and are in many ways less satisfying.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,946

    Scott_xP said:

    You are fighting yesterday's battles

    You are trying to spin yesterday's crushing defeat as a glorious victory

    Brexit looks as dumb today as it did yesterday, and will continue to do so
    I do not need to spin something that is obvious

    Brexit has happened and we need to take the opportunities now on offer across the globe

    You will always lament Brexit but the UK is not about to rejoin the EU anytime soon
    What Brexit opportunities?

    Let's say Brexit has cost us £5 ( if you think that number too high, pick any number greater than £1). Trump has charged us a £1 tariff giving a total of Brexit plus Trump of £6. If we remained in the EU that tariff would be doubled to £2 giving us £7. But we didn't Brexit so we can remove the £5 cost of Brexit. So without Brexit our tariff cost is £2. With Brexit our Brexit plus tariff cost is £6.

    So long as the cost of Brexit ( in my exercise) is greater than £1, we have still lost out by Brexiting.
    The problem for many is the fact they didn't accept the referendum vote and the political class decided to have a bun fight over the issue rather than getting together and landing on a sensible solution

    I voted remain but accepted the verdict and whilst it has faults it still is the way forward, especially in this new trading environment, and the politicians need to take the opportunity for a new world order to everyone's benefit excluding the US of course
    So do I accept the vote, and I also accept the EU won't want us back anytime soon with King Nigel waiting in the wings. All that said and done I wouldn't take that extra step you have taken and sell Brexit as a win for Britain.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,813

    Scott_xP said:

    There is no doubt this is a positive for Brexit

    Nope

    @gilesyb.bsky.social‬

    The UK exports £360bn of goods to the EU, on which we now struggle with big non tariff barriers, compared to £60bn to the US. Imagine looking at this sh1tshow and thinking it vindicates Brexit in any way.
    You are fighting yesterday's battles

    And you are blinded to the opportunity this opens to many countries, including the EU, to develop a mutually beneficial security and trading association much wider than just the EU

    Indeed Ed Davey said as much yesterday
    A partial reset with the EU is indeed a big prize but the current government isn't pursuing it with any energy. The risk is it will push for a deal with Trump with relatively little upside at the expense of the country's wider interests.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,534
    Dura_Ace said:

    If anyone still gives a fuck about it, there was an excellent long article on the SMO in the NYT on Sunday.




    Some interesting snippets...

    The UK has a lot of pull in Kiev because of the amount of troops (and others) they have inside Ukraine. In contrast to the US who go no further east than Wiesbaden. Which was news to me. SKS will be in the shit if any get captured.

    Zaluzhniy was a fucking nightmare to deal with and he wouldn't speak to Gen. Miley. When Miley wanted to talk to him he had to call the CO of the California National Guard who spoke to some Ukrainian oligarch in LA with absolutely no links to organised crime. This guy would speak to the Ukranian Defence Minister who would then make Zaluzhniy phone Miley.

    Zelenskiy, Zaluzhniy and Syrsky completed buggered the cucksteroffensive through infighting and micro-management against the advice of Gen. Donahue.

    The combination of CIA intel + HIMARS was devastating and they rocked the Russians back to almost the point of defeat several times but the Ukrainian generals wouldn't press an advantage when they had it to the fury and frustration of the much more aggressive Americans.

    Good article. The type of in-depth reportage you would never see in a British newspaper in a million years.

    Obviously a certain amount of US spin in this article, but it rings true.

    I imagine the failure of the counter-offensive made the Ukrainians very reluctant to go on the offensive against the Russian lines again, even though it’s not possible for the Russians to mine the entire front with the density they mined against the counter-offensive.

    (It was a total command failure to advertise the location of the counter-offensive so far in advance & so obviously.)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,570

    The original argument is unchanged.

    And remains bollocks
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,584


    ironeconomist.bsky.social
    @ironeconomist.bsky.social‬

    I am going to be saying this all day, but, all the bank economic models of tariffs had the dollar strengthening to offset ~40-80% of the tariff impact on prices. If you do a tariff regime so crazy the dollar weakens then you have put the Fed between a rock and a hard place.

    https://bsky.app/profile/ironeconomist.bsky.social/post/3llvgvk62cc2i

    The $ is tanking.
    Genius! Exports cheaper, imports more expensive. 4D chess played like never before!
    Lol! And the tourist hotspots of the World are suddenly devoid of American tourists. Everybody wins!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,477
    Phil said:

    Scott_xP said:

    You are fighting yesterday's battles

    You are trying to spin yesterday's crushing defeat as a glorious victory

    Brexit looks as dumb today as it did yesterday, and will continue to do so
    Remoaners are always speciously pointing to the perceived lack of 'Brexit benefits' as if Brexit was meant to be an instant pay cheque, not a freedom that requires actual use to be enjoyed.

    Well, by happy coincidence, here you go. Just by being outside the EU, tariffs on our exports to the US are halved vs. those being levied on those from the bloc. And it's happened regardless of how shit the British Government is. You're welcome.
    Our car industry gets hit with 25% though.
    True, but as I've said, the point still stands.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,222
    Scott_xP said:

    @LHSummers

    Never before has an hour of Presidential rhetoric cost so many people so much. Markets continue to move after my previous tweet. The best estimate of the loss from tariff policy is now is closer to $30 trillion or $300,000 per family of four.

    https://x.com/LHSummers/status/1907607829231317473

    To paraphrase Churchill:
    "Never in the field of human stupidity has so much been cost to so many by so few"
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,570

    True, but as I've said, the point still stands.

    The point being that Brexit was an economic disaster, and "only 10%" doesn't even begin to make up for it
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,098
    Daniel Hannan
    @DanielJHannan

    When the Trump presidency ends in ignominy, a lot of the people now cheerleading him will deny ever having backed it.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,149
    Selebian said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @LHSummers

    Never before has an hour of Presidential rhetoric cost so many people so much. Markets continue to move after my previous tweet. The best estimate of the loss from tariff policy is now is closer to $30 trillion or $300,000 per family of four.

    https://x.com/LHSummers/status/1907607829231317473

    To paraphrase Churchill:
    "Never in the field of human stupidity has so much been cost to so many by so few"
    As things go, Trump's Tariffs probably don't even make the Top 100.

    But given the scale of human stupidity across history, that's no boast. And there's still time.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,088
    Hungary withdrawing from the ICC.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,660

    Scott_xP said:

    You are fighting yesterday's battles

    You are trying to spin yesterday's crushing defeat as a glorious victory

    Brexit looks as dumb today as it did yesterday, and will continue to do so
    I do not need to spin something that is obvious

    Brexit has happened and we need to take the opportunities now on offer across the globe

    You will always lament Brexit but the UK is not about to rejoin the EU anytime soon
    What Brexit opportunities?

    Let's say Brexit has cost us £5 ( if you think that number too high, pick any number greater than £1). Trump has charged us a £1 tariff giving a total of Brexit plus Trump of £6. If we remained in the EU that tariff would be doubled to £2 giving us £7. But we didn't Brexit so we can remove the £5 cost of Brexit. So without Brexit our tariff cost is £2. With Brexit our Brexit plus tariff cost is £6.

    So long as the cost of Brexit ( in my exercise) is greater than £1, we have still lost out by Brexiting.
    The problem for many is the fact they didn't accept the referendum vote and the political class decided to have a bun fight over the issue rather than getting together and landing on a sensible solution

    I voted remain but accepted the verdict and whilst it has faults it still is the way forward, especially in this new trading environment, and the politicians need to take the opportunity for a new world order to everyone's benefit excluding the US of course
    So do I accept the vote, and I also accept the EU won't want us back anytime soon with King Nigel waiting in the wings. All that said and done I wouldn't take that extra step you have taken and sell Brexit as a win for Britain.
    To be fair to Big_G I don't believe he is ramping 10-25% tariffs as a win. He's advocating that we create a new arrangement with the EU and others. If he was a mad Brexiteer the notion of any further deal with the EU would trigger conniptions.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,222
    Scott_xP said:

    There is no doubt this is a positive for Brexit

    Nope

    @gilesyb.bsky.social‬

    The UK exports £360bn of goods to the EU, on which we now struggle with big non tariff barriers, compared to £60bn to the US. Imagine looking at this sh1tshow and thinking it vindicates Brexit in any way.
    Sure, but this is a positive of Brexit, for now. Just outweighed by the other negatives.

    With someone sane in the White House, being part of a big trading bloc working together would also be a disincentive to hit us with tariffs due to the greater impact of any response, but, well... Trump.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,477
    edited April 3
    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    Scott_xP said:

    You are fighting yesterday's battles

    You are trying to spin yesterday's crushing defeat as a glorious victory

    Brexit looks as dumb today as it did yesterday, and will continue to do so
    Remoaners are always speciously pointing to the perceived lack of 'Brexit benefits' as if Brexit was meant to be an instant pay cheque, not a freedom that requires actual use to be enjoyed.

    Well, by happy coincidence, here you go. Just by being outside the EU, tariffs on our exports to the US are halved vs. those being levied on those from the bloc. And it's happened regardless of how shit the British Government is. You're welcome.
    I would be interested to know what you do or did for a living? Did you actually export? Actually have real experience of the barriers Brexit caused. To anyone familiar with preparing carnets should be able to tell you.
    I can't see how this point is remotely connected with the point I just made.
    Really? Just trying to find out if you have any experience of what you say on here. I have. So do you have any real knowledge of exporting to the EU pre and post Brexit? Have you ever filled in a carnet for instance and sat there at customs having a conversation with a French customs officer.

    Maybe practical experience of the pre and post Brexit issues might change your views.

    So what do you do?
    I don't consider that to be any of your business.

    Especially given that my point above has shit all to do with post-Brexit trade frictions with the EU, which I have never denied or belittled.

    As an aside, a personal insight into the frustrations of exporting to the EU post-Brexit would not remotely change my views on the wider subject, for many reasons.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,423
    Pulpstar said:

    Hungary withdrawing from the ICC.

    I didn’t realise Hungary played cricket.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,477

    Pulpstar said:

    Hungary withdrawing from the ICC.

    I didn’t realise Hungary played cricket.
    One less country to beat us.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,222

    Pulpstar said:

    Hungary withdrawing from the ICC.

    I didn’t realise Hungary played cricket.
    Not any more, it seems :wink:

    Hungary's actions are just not cricket.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,306
    Leon said:

    I thought it would be realised in basic terms like GDP - a kind of sorpasso - but no. It has arrived in voluntary American resignation, America admitting it is not hegemonic and no longer pre-eminent and all powerful and it must retreat and defend. That day arrived yesterday, tho Trump probably believes the opposite

    One of the biggest issues for the Chinese government right now must be to not be seen to gloat, but they are surely very tempted to do so.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,744
    PB continues with its brilliant ability to tie whatever is going on in the world to a referendum held nearly nine years ago.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,615
    Scott_xP said:

    @lewisgoodall.com‬

    -We may have a 10% Brexit 'dividend' but the cost of that dividend is the significant lost output since Brexit and trade dislocation with the EU, which the somewhat more generous US treatment does not even nearly compensate for.

    @mrjamesob.bsky.social‬

    You can explain it to them but you can’t understand it for them.

    I agree with James O,Brien!!!

    You can explain to the EU fanatics that publishing stats on economics won’t convince Brexit voters but you can’t make them understand
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,921

    PB continues with its brilliant ability to tie whatever is going on in the world to a referendum held nearly nine years ago.

    Well it does continue to define quite a lot about our relations with the rest of the world. Like it or not.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,477
    Scott_xP said:

    True, but as I've said, the point still stands.

    The point being that Brexit was an economic disaster, and "only 10%" doesn't even begin to make up for it
    You think that it was a disaster, I don't. But I'm glad you concede my point by implication, even if you didn't display the character to acknowledge it openly.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,706
    Scott_xP said:

    True, but as I've said, the point still stands.

    The point being that Brexit was an economic disaster, and "only 10%" doesn't even begin to make up for it
    No it wasn't Scott. Covid was an economic disaster. The Ukraine war was an economic disaster. Trumponomics might well be an economic disaster, Brexit was an invisible blip by comparison. My expectation is still that it will be a long-term positive, as I think there is a risk of the European economy going through some pretty turbulent times, but either way it is small beer compared to three other economic disasters that have happened since.

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,660
    European finance ministers are being sensible. Calling for a negotiated settlement. Stating that actions will need to be taken to protect our interests if such a negotiation isn't possible.

    So the obvious question is this - will Trump blink?

    Trump doesn't understand tariffs. US Undersecretary for Trade Bonnie Blue didn't understand tariffs when she drew up the lunatic formula for the "tariffs" imposed on the US. MAGA voters think tariffs mean everyone else pays Murica.

    The rest of the world? Like literally everyone else, we understand. Reported but understated is the almost embarrassed laughter being aimed at America. As the "tariffs" being imposed by ROW on the US don't exist, its impossible for them to be lifted, nor can many of these nations buy the "many billions of dollars in US goods" demanded.

    The only deal which can be achieved is Trump climbing down. With the world laughing even harder at him. I can't see it happening. At which point we move past the negotiated settlement phase and into reciprocity and beyond.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,233
    edited April 3
    Sean_F said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    If anyone still gives a fuck about it, there was an excellent long article on the SMO in the NYT on Sunday.




    Some interesting snippets...

    The UK has a lot of pull in Kiev because of the amount of troops (and others) they have inside Ukraine. In contrast to the US who go no further east than Wiesbaden. Which was news to me. SKS will be in the shit if any get captured.

    Zaluzhniy was a fucking nightmare to deal with and he wouldn't speak to Gen. Miley. When Miley wanted to talk to him he had to call the CO of the California National Guard who spoke to some Ukrainian oligarch in LA with absolutely no links to organised crime. This guy would speak to the Ukranian Defence Minister who would then make Zaluzhniy phone Miley.

    Zelenskiy, Zaluzhniy and Syrsky completed buggered the cucksteroffensive through infighting and micro-management against the advice of Gen. Donahue.

    The combination of CIA intel + HIMARS was devastating and they rocked the Russians back to almost the point of defeat several times but the Ukrainian generals wouldn't press an advantage when they had it to the fury and frustration of the much more aggressive Americans.

    Good article. The type of in-depth reportage you would never see in a British newspaper in a million years.

    Very interesting. Thanks.
    Meduza (shady Baltic outfit, possible CIA psyop but reliably anti-Russian) have finally done an English translation of their long article on the state of play inside Ukraine with a lot of detail on the 'Бусифікація'/'Busification' phenomenon which I have not seen reported on before in the Anglosphere. Not saying it hasn't been, just that I haven't seen it.

    https://meduza.io/en/feature/2025/03/27/please-don-t-use-my-name

  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,744
    Nigelb said:

    PB continues with its brilliant ability to tie whatever is going on in the world to a referendum held nearly nine years ago.

    Well it does continue to define quite a lot about our relations with the rest of the world. Like it or not.
    Yes, I know that of course. But, for now, Brexit is done and there seems little point in harping on about a scenario in which there is no Brexit.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,493

    Daniel Hannan
    @DanielJHannan

    When the Trump presidency ends in ignominy, a lot of the people now cheerleading him will deny ever having backed it.

    I think he’s just copying and pasting things people have said to him about Brexit.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,006
    Cookie said:

    Scott_xP said:

    True, but as I've said, the point still stands.

    The point being that Brexit was an economic disaster, and "only 10%" doesn't even begin to make up for it
    No it wasn't Scott. Covid was an economic disaster. The Ukraine war was an economic disaster. Trumponomics might well be an economic disaster, Brexit was an invisible blip by comparison. My expectation is still that it will be a long-term positive, as I think there is a risk of the European economy going through some pretty turbulent times, but either way it is small beer compared to three other economic disasters that have happened since.

    Seeing Brexit in isolation from the Trump tariffs, Covid and the Ukraine war makes no sense. Leaving the EU left us more exposed to the consequences of all three.

  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,222
    Cookie said:

    Scott_xP said:

    True, but as I've said, the point still stands.

    The point being that Brexit was an economic disaster, and "only 10%" doesn't even begin to make up for it
    No it wasn't Scott. Covid was an economic disaster. The Ukraine war was an economic disaster. Trumponomics might well be an economic disaster, Brexit was an invisible blip by comparison. My expectation is still that it will be a long-term positive, as I think there is a risk of the European economy going through some pretty turbulent times, but either way it is small beer compared to three other economic disasters that have happened since.

    Come now, I wouldn't have expected such a narrow parochial view from you. Brexit may, compared to Covid etc, be a relatively small blip on UK economic prospects, but you're completely ignoring the way both French wine makers and German car manufacturers have been completely destroyed by Brexit :cry:

    (The German car manufacturers are a bit fucked, actually, although I'm not sure we can completely credit Brexit)
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,615

    FYI - If you do not know who Bonnie Blue is you should NOT google her.

    What’s she proposing now?
    Pegging the dollar with the dildo of consequences ?
    I’m glad that this year I have proved my contracts in GBP and AUD. For the last few years I’ve been pricing in USD…
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,994

    PB continues with its brilliant ability to tie whatever is going on in the world to a referendum held nearly nine years ago.

    Well.. it's affected our lives ever since...

    Onthread.. why would anyone expect Govts to handle anything well. Post 1945 everything pretty much has been one fuck up after another. All parties are guilty of incompetence.

    Let's look at the evidence

    Competent Prime Minister's None
    Competent Chancellor of the Exchequer
    Only One. KEN Clarke
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,534
    glw said:

    Leon said:

    I thought it would be realised in basic terms like GDP - a kind of sorpasso - but no. It has arrived in voluntary American resignation, America admitting it is not hegemonic and no longer pre-eminent and all powerful and it must retreat and defend. That day arrived yesterday, tho Trump probably believes the opposite

    One of the biggest issues for the Chinese government right now must be to not be seen to gloat, but they are surely very tempted to do so.
    It’s definitely possible that we get a realignment towards China. All they have to do is basically nothing: Just by being a stable, predictable partner they will look like a more reliable place to build economic ties than the US.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,920

    Scott_xP said:

    You are fighting yesterday's battles

    You are trying to spin yesterday's crushing defeat as a glorious victory

    Brexit looks as dumb today as it did yesterday, and will continue to do so
    I do not need to spin something that is obvious

    Brexit has happened and we need to take the opportunities now on offer across the globe

    You will always lament Brexit but the UK is not about to rejoin the EU anytime soon
    What Brexit opportunities?

    Let's say Brexit has cost us £5 ( if you think that number too high, pick any number greater than £1). Trump has charged us a £1 tariff giving a total of Brexit plus Trump of £6. If we remained in the EU that tariff would be doubled to £2 giving us £7. But we didn't Brexit so we can remove the £5 cost of Brexit. So without Brexit our tariff cost is £2. With Brexit our Brexit plus tariff cost is £6.

    So long as the cost of Brexit ( in my exercise) is greater than £1, we have still lost out by Brexiting.
    The problem for many is the fact they didn't accept the referendum vote and the political class decided to have a bun fight over the issue rather than getting together and landing on a sensible solution

    I voted remain but accepted the verdict and whilst it has faults it still is the way forward, especially in this new trading environment, and the politicians need to take the opportunity for a new world order to everyone's benefit excluding the US of course
    So do I accept the vote, and I also accept the EU won't want us back anytime soon with King Nigel waiting in the wings. All that said and done I wouldn't take that extra step you have taken and sell Brexit as a win for Britain.
    In the longer term it may well have proved an excellent decision
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,392

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    Scott_xP said:

    You are fighting yesterday's battles

    You are trying to spin yesterday's crushing defeat as a glorious victory

    Brexit looks as dumb today as it did yesterday, and will continue to do so
    Remoaners are always speciously pointing to the perceived lack of 'Brexit benefits' as if Brexit was meant to be an instant pay cheque, not a freedom that requires actual use to be enjoyed.

    Well, by happy coincidence, here you go. Just by being outside the EU, tariffs on our exports to the US are halved vs. those being levied on those from the bloc. And it's happened regardless of how shit the British Government is. You're welcome.
    I would be interested to know what you do or did for a living? Did you actually export? Actually have real experience of the barriers Brexit caused. To anyone familiar with preparing carnets should be able to tell you.
    I can't see how this point is remotely connected with the point I just made.
    Really? Just trying to find out if you have any experience of what you say on here. I have. So do you have any real knowledge of exporting to the EU pre and post Brexit? Have you ever filled in a carnet for instance and sat there at customs having a conversation with a French customs officer.

    Maybe practical experience of the pre and post Brexit issues might change your views.

    So what do you do?
    I don't consider that to be any of your business.

    Especially given that my point above has shit all to do with post-Brexit trade frictions with the EU, which I have never denied or belittled.

    As an aside, a personal insight into the frustrations of exporting to the EU post-Brexit would not remotely change my views on the wider subject, for many reasons.
    Hmm, it isn't, but you pontificate on stuff and we have no idea of your expertise or experience and just about everyone else here has given their background on stuff without doxing themselves.

    And to say personal insight into a subject would not change your views on something is mind boggling. I don't know about you, but if I need an operation I go to a surgeon, if I want a bridge built I go to a civil engineer, etc. I don't go to some person with no experience who just gives his/her opinion with no actual experience and thinks actual knowledge might not change his/her mind on stuff.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,954

    Daniel Hannan
    @DanielJHannan

    When the Trump presidency ends in ignominy, a lot of the people now cheerleading him will deny ever having backed it.

    I think he’s just copying and pasting things people have said to him about Brexit.
    Hannan still seems bewitched by the ghosts of Thatcher and Reagan. These are now discredited figures on the Right. He needs to move on or will find himself horribly marginalized.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,296
    Piquantly I am writing this in the Afrosiyab museum in Samarkand with its famous murals from a Sogdian palace - 7th century pre Islamic Samarkand - depicting Turkish, Chinese, Persian, Tibetan, Korean (?!) ambassadors and merchants and royals riding elephants and hunting panthers and bearing silks - on the Silk Road. The iconic world trade that made Samarkand rich in the first place

    The day after Trump crushes world trade

    They are a really amazing glimpse of a lost world

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afrasiab_murals
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,233
    Cookie said:

    My expectation is still that it will be a long-term positive

    That's the spirit. Never give up.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,921
    Inside ICE Air: Flight Attendants on Deportation Planes Say Disaster Is “Only a Matter of Time”
    https://www.propublica.org/article/inside-ice-air-deportation-flights
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,921
    GWB talking with more sense - and greater predictive ability - than Leon.
    Who would have guessed ?
    https://x.com/CountryFirstRep/status/1907559667972067531
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,835
    edited April 3
    Tariffs. two points. On the article: I don't suppose one person in a thousand understands international trade, its barriers and constraints, well enough to have any idea what would count as handling the matter well or badly.

    Secondly; it is easy to find comment saying 'Trump is marvellous, it's liberation day'; and easy to find comment saying 'Terrible; global slump coming, we are all doomed'. This doesn't seem to add a lot.

    Does anyone know of well informed comment capable balancing the issues, and in particular knowing how other countries might have been using the instruments and barriers of international trade to their own advantage and against the USA?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,116

    PB continues with its brilliant ability to tie whatever is going on in the world to a referendum held nearly nine years ago.

    Well.. it's affected our lives ever since...

    Onthread.. why would anyone expect Govts to handle anything well. Post 1945 everything pretty much has been one fuck up after another. All parties are guilty of incompetence.

    Let's look at the evidence

    Competent Prime Minister's None
    Competent Chancellor of the Exchequer
    Only One. KEN Clarke
    On the CofE:

    I agree that many of the CofE's have been poor in the role, if not failures. Yet many of them, whether Conservative or Labour, have been far from stupid. Brown was not stupid. Darling was not stupid. Osborne was not stupid. Ditto Hammond, or Sunak.

    You may not like them, for their politics or otherwise, but they were *not* thick.

    Yet it can be argued they all performed poorly. And this is interesting, to me at least, because it indicates the problem may not be the people, but the role of CofE and the way the department interacts with the rest of the government.

    Taking this further: may it be very difficult, if not impossible, for a CofE to be successful without a reform of the exchequer and wider government?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,584

    Scott_xP said:

    You are fighting yesterday's battles

    You are trying to spin yesterday's crushing defeat as a glorious victory

    Brexit looks as dumb today as it did yesterday, and will continue to do so
    I do not need to spin something that is obvious

    Brexit has happened and we need to take the opportunities now on offer across the globe

    You will always lament Brexit but the UK is not about to rejoin the EU anytime soon
    What Brexit opportunities?

    Let's say Brexit has cost us £5 ( if you think that number too high, pick any number greater than £1). Trump has charged us a £1 tariff giving a total of Brexit plus Trump of £6. If we remained in the EU that tariff would be doubled to £2 giving us £7. But we didn't Brexit so we can remove the £5 cost of Brexit. So without Brexit our tariff cost is £2. With Brexit our Brexit plus tariff cost is £6.

    So long as the cost of Brexit ( in my exercise) is greater than £1, we have still lost out by Brexiting.
    The problem for many is the fact they didn't accept the referendum vote and the political class decided to have a bun fight over the issue rather than getting together and landing on a sensible solution

    I voted remain but accepted the verdict and whilst it has faults it still is the way forward, especially in this new trading environment, and the politicians need to take the opportunity for a new world order to everyone's benefit excluding the US of course
    So do I accept the vote, and I also accept the EU won't want us back anytime soon with King Nigel waiting in the wings. All that said and done I wouldn't take that extra step you have taken and sell Brexit as a win for Britain.
    In the longer term it may well have proved an excellent decision
    We are long past the point where it would be easy to disentangle the effects of Brexit from all the other economic and political cross currents that we have seen since we left the EU, so I'm not sure such discussions have much merit any longer. However, I do have a personal interest in the matter.

    Not long after the vote I offered to polish with my tongue the shoes of every single Brexiteer on PB if leaving was an economic success. As objective criteria I nominated our credit rating, which had been cut, and the exchange rate, which had droppred down to about £1/1.08euros. If our credit rating were restored and the rate returned to £1/1,3euros, polishing would commence immediately.

    I think we are well past the point now where one could expect both conditions to be not only met but also plainly attributable to the economic benefits of leaving the EU. My offer is therefore now withdrawn.
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