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Liberation day is going well – politicalbetting.com

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  • glwglw Posts: 10,309
    edited April 2
    HYUFD said:

    If Chinese tech catches up that would happen with or without tariffs if Chinese tech expertise improves.

    Oh I certainly think China will win in the long run whatever happens, my point is that Trump is accelerating that process. Trump has created the impetus for the entire rest-of-the-world to move away from US goods and services, and many countries will benefit in the medium to long term.

    Just look at the US response to the EU planning to spend more on defence but only on European weapons or from trustworthy allies. Plainly the US didn't mean for Europe to stick two fingers up to Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Boeing, and so on, but that's what is going to happen. Europe heard Trump loud and clear. The US will lose a lot of business as a result.

    Now apply that same sort of message and response across essentially every area of trade and the whole world, and what do you get? In the long term a poorer and less powerful America. The main beneficiaries will be the countries most able to invest and fill the gaps that the US is creating.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,513

    Scott_xP said:

    @jurgen_nauditt

    Meanwhile, the US stock market has lost over $2 trillion in the last 20 minutes.

    https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1907540913431183666

    Trump has done more to fix inequality than Labour.
    What the f*** are you talking about. You are ruining this site with your shilling for Trump. You are a smart guy, are you just trolling libs?
    I posted Daniel Hannan for balance.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,664

    We’re at risk here of the world pulling together a notAmerica free trade zone and the UK not being part of it

    This is an absurd fantasy. There isn't a NotAmerica free trade zone, and we're already part of the CPTPP and have a free trade zone with the EU.
    1. An awful lot of people are talking about creating something new
    2. CPTPP means what - that we can’t do anything else? Anyone told China and Japan?
    3. We don’t have free trade with the EU. We have a long swathe of tariffs and longer swathes of paperwork even when the tariff rate is zero.

    I know that this is a very tough time for you. Thoughts and prayers and all that
    Think through the implications of your third point. We have a comprehensive zero-tariff and zero-quota TCA with the EU that goes beyond most free trade agreements in existence globally, but now you imagine that the rest of the world will somehow suddenly agree to go well beyond that and exclude us? It's detached from reality.
    Ok, so free trade is detached from reality, but yerman Trump is I assume connected with it?

    You are ramping a trade deal you don’t understand for political reasons. All of us who actually trade have described in detail how it isn’t free and people like you call us liars. I live here and import. You live over there and don’t.

    There is genuine free trade inside the EEA. We can expand that. And global leaders - literally global as they’re saying it across the globe - want to do this.

    Again, we all have you in our thoughts in this Hard Time for you. But that doesn’t change the simple reality that you’re now shilling for Trump which means shilling for Putin which means you know what for Ukraine.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,504
    Fishing said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If tariffs are so awful why haven't other nations (And supranational blocks such as the EU) done away with them all ?

    Because economic theory allows for tariffs in certain limited circumstances. When you are protecting infant industries (which America's aren't), when there are industries crucial to non-economic purposes like national security (which these general tariffs don't pretend to protect) and when there are increasing returns to scale (ditto), there is some argument for them.

    Also, politically, powerful lobby groups like farmers and carmakers that benefit hugely from them can influence cowardly or ignorant politicians.
    Are all of the EU tariffs protecting fledgling industries? (genuine question)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,650
    Russia and North Korea are exempt from tariffs
  • eekeek Posts: 29,554
    “Nike, which produced 50% of its footwear in Vietnam in 2024, plummeted almost 7% in after-hours trading.”
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,485

    We’re at risk here of the world pulling together a notAmerica free trade zone and the UK not being part of it

    This is an absurd fantasy. There isn't a NotAmerica free trade zone, and we're already part of the CPTPP and have a free trade zone with the EU.
    1. An awful lot of people are talking about creating something new
    2. CPTPP means what - that we can’t do anything else? Anyone told China and Japan?
    3. We don’t have free trade with the EU. We have a long swathe of tariffs and longer swathes of paperwork even when the tariff rate is zero.

    I know that this is a very tough time for you. Thoughts and prayers and all that
    The pillock-in-a-pond quite clearly has zero knowledge of what the current trading arrangements are and what new ones are possible or even desirable. Should we give proto-fascist and Russian oil-guzzler Modi whatever he wants (which seems to be a huge deal on visas) because we're incensed by Trump’s 10% tariff? India has an average tariff rate of 17%!

  • eekeek Posts: 29,554
    tlg86 said:

    Fishing said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If tariffs are so awful why haven't other nations (And supranational blocks such as the EU) done away with them all ?

    Because economic theory allows for tariffs in certain limited circumstances. When you are protecting infant industries (which America's aren't), when there are industries crucial to non-economic purposes like national security (which these general tariffs don't pretend to protect) and when there are increasing returns to scale (ditto), there is some argument for them.

    Also, politically, powerful lobby groups like farmers and carmakers that benefit hugely from them can influence cowardly or ignorant politicians.
    Are all of the EU tariffs protecting fledgling industries? (genuine question)
    Nope but I think they are mainly national security ones (and food because well the French founded the EU)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,316

    Andy_JS said:

    Tory MP for neighbouring seat to Runcorn & Helsby calls for Tories to stand back and allow Reform to win the seat.

    "Tories should let Reform win Runcorn by-election, says Esther McVey
    Former Cabinet minister proposes that Conservatives should ‘stay out the way’ of a victory for Nigel Farage’s party" (£)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/04/02/tories-let-reform-win-runcorn-byelection-esther-mcvey/

    She's right from 2 perspectives.

    Firstly, it would be awful if the Tory candidate split the Reform candidate's vote and let Labour back in.

    Secondly and more realistically, the Tories are going to get soundly drubbed, so they may as well pretend they never wanted to win.
    No options look good for them. Stand aside and they acknowledge Reform as their superiors or that a formal alliance must be made, but the party is split between people who like or loathe Reform. Standing will be token and Reform look stronger than them anyway, especially if they win despite the Tories trying.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,979
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So does Trump really think that tariffs will simultaneously bring in so much revenue that he can get rid of income tax plus also lead to imports being replaced by US manufacturing ?

    If the imports are replaced where does the tariff revenue come from ?

    The great new rustbelt manufacturing boom and the extra tax revenue
    That extra tax revenue will be paid by US consumers alongside the higher prices.

    You cannot get rich by producing low value added consumer tat.
    Trump has
    At the expense of others not by creating anything of value.

    That might work very well for an individual but it doesn't work for a country.
    It worked for China over the last few decades
    China has sold the consumer tat it produces to richer countries.

    Now which countries are going to buy consumer tat which has been made at American prices ?
    Americans
    So Americans will be paying higher prices.

    That might help those Americans who might be employed at new consumer tat factories but they're going to far exceeded by those Americans who will lose out.
    Not if they buy American
    Who are, for example, these imaginary textile manufacturers they will buy from ?
    Or electronic goods ?

    You're living in a fantasy world.

    Even where there is domestic manufacturing, companies will put up their prices because of the reduced competition.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,485
    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Tory MP for neighbouring seat to Runcorn & Helsby calls for Tories to stand back and allow Reform to win the seat.

    "Tories should let Reform win Runcorn by-election, says Esther McVey
    Former Cabinet minister proposes that Conservatives should ‘stay out the way’ of a victory for Nigel Farage’s party" (£)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/04/02/tories-let-reform-win-runcorn-byelection-esther-mcvey/

    She's right from 2 perspectives.

    Firstly, it would be awful if the Tory candidate split the Reform candidate's vote and let Labour back in.

    Secondly and more realistically, the Tories are going to get soundly drubbed, so they may as well pretend they never wanted to win.
    No options look good for them. Stand aside and they acknowledge Reform as their superiors or that a formal alliance must be made, but the party is split between people who like or loathe Reform. Standing will be token and Reform look stronger than them anyway, especially if they win despite the Tories trying.
    They acknowledge them as their superiors in a Labour stronghold, yes.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,504
    eek said:

    tlg86 said:

    Fishing said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If tariffs are so awful why haven't other nations (And supranational blocks such as the EU) done away with them all ?

    Because economic theory allows for tariffs in certain limited circumstances. When you are protecting infant industries (which America's aren't), when there are industries crucial to non-economic purposes like national security (which these general tariffs don't pretend to protect) and when there are increasing returns to scale (ditto), there is some argument for them.

    Also, politically, powerful lobby groups like farmers and carmakers that benefit hugely from them can influence cowardly or ignorant politicians.
    Are all of the EU tariffs protecting fledgling industries? (genuine question)
    Nope but I think they are mainly national security ones (and food because well the French founded the EU)
    And there's the problem. We're supposed to just accept the French doing what the French do.

    Trump's a moron. But he and the rest of the idiots over there don't owe the world a living.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,316
    glw said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Chinese tech catches up that would happen with or without tariffs if Chinese tech expertise improves.

    Oh I certainly think China will win in the long run whatever happens, my point is that Trump is accelerating that process. Trump has created the impetus for the entire rest-of-the-world to move away from US goods and services, and many countries will benefit in the medium to long term.

    Just look at the US response to the EU planning to spend more on defence but only on European weapons or from trustworthy allies. Plainly the US didn't mean for Europe to stick two fingers up to Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Boeing, and so on, but that's what is going to happen. Europe heard Trump loud and clear. The US will lose a lot of business as a result.

    Now apply that same sort of message and response across essentially every area of trade and the whole world, and what do you get? In the long term a poorer and less powerful America. The main beneficiaries will be the countries most able to invest and fill the gaps that the US is creating.
    Yes, smashing the system seems odd when it was part of what made you powerful even beyond sheer economic and military might.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,513

    We’re at risk here of the world pulling together a notAmerica free trade zone and the UK not being part of it

    This is an absurd fantasy. There isn't a NotAmerica free trade zone, and we're already part of the CPTPP and have a free trade zone with the EU.
    1. An awful lot of people are talking about creating something new
    2. CPTPP means what - that we can’t do anything else? Anyone told China and Japan?
    3. We don’t have free trade with the EU. We have a long swathe of tariffs and longer swathes of paperwork even when the tariff rate is zero.

    I know that this is a very tough time for you. Thoughts and prayers and all that
    Think through the implications of your third point. We have a comprehensive zero-tariff and zero-quota TCA with the EU that goes beyond most free trade agreements in existence globally, but now you imagine that the rest of the world will somehow suddenly agree to go well beyond that and exclude us? It's detached from reality.
    Ok, so free trade is detached from reality, but yerman Trump is I assume connected with it?

    You are ramping a trade deal you don’t understand for political reasons. All of us who actually trade have described in detail how it isn’t free and people like you call us liars. I live here and import. You live over there and don’t.

    There is genuine free trade inside the EEA. We can expand that. And global leaders - literally global as they’re saying it across the globe - want to do this.

    Again, we all have you in our thoughts in this Hard Time for you. But that doesn’t change the simple reality that you’re now shilling for Trump which means shilling for Putin which means you know what for Ukraine.
    You said:

    We’re at risk here of the world pulling together a notAmerica free trade zone and the UK not being part of it

    Putting this together with your thoughts on how the UK-EU TCA isn't free trade, then I have to assume you are picturing something like a global single market excluding the UK and US. It's just not happening.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,554
    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    tlg86 said:

    Fishing said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If tariffs are so awful why haven't other nations (And supranational blocks such as the EU) done away with them all ?

    Because economic theory allows for tariffs in certain limited circumstances. When you are protecting infant industries (which America's aren't), when there are industries crucial to non-economic purposes like national security (which these general tariffs don't pretend to protect) and when there are increasing returns to scale (ditto), there is some argument for them.

    Also, politically, powerful lobby groups like farmers and carmakers that benefit hugely from them can influence cowardly or ignorant politicians.
    Are all of the EU tariffs protecting fledgling industries? (genuine question)
    Nope but I think they are mainly national security ones (and food because well the French founded the EU)
    And there's the problem. We're supposed to just accept the French doing what the French do.

    Trump's a moron. But he and the rest of the idiots over there don't owe the world a living.
    Oh they don't but equally the people who are going to be hit by this hardest are Americans where suddenly a lot of things are about to become a lot more expensive.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,997
    Scott_xP said:

    Russia and North Korea are exempt from tariffs

    Surely not
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,979
    edited April 2

    Some people will be surprised to find that they are in agreement with Daniel Hannan:

    https://x.com/danieljhannan/status/1907537737936196049

    The policies just announced are batshit crazy. They will cause a recession. And, when they do, the people who backed them will blame foreigners or globalists or some such, and double down.

    No, it's the other way around.
    For once he's in agreement with us. But so what ?
  • glwglw Posts: 10,309
    I still can't get over Trump's orange face but white ears and hands. Doesn't anyone care enough about him to tell him he looks ridiculous?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,969
    eek said:

    “Nike, which produced 50% of its footwear in Vietnam in 2024, plummeted almost 7% in after-hours trading.”

    The bit which Trump is too f*****' thick to realise is a pair of Nike sneakers cost about ten bob to make in Vietnam. The uplift across the World is the difference between that ten bob and the hundred bucks/ Euros/ pounds Nike sell them for. The uplift going in share bonus and head office wages in the US. The man is a f*****' idiot.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,554

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Tory MP for neighbouring seat to Runcorn & Helsby calls for Tories to stand back and allow Reform to win the seat.

    "Tories should let Reform win Runcorn by-election, says Esther McVey
    Former Cabinet minister proposes that Conservatives should ‘stay out the way’ of a victory for Nigel Farage’s party" (£)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/04/02/tories-let-reform-win-runcorn-byelection-esther-mcvey/

    She's right from 2 perspectives.

    Firstly, it would be awful if the Tory candidate split the Reform candidate's vote and let Labour back in.

    Secondly and more realistically, the Tories are going to get soundly drubbed, so they may as well pretend they never wanted to win.
    No options look good for them. Stand aside and they acknowledge Reform as their superiors or that a formal alliance must be made, but the party is split between people who like or loathe Reform. Standing will be token and Reform look stronger than them anyway, especially if they win despite the Tories trying.
    They acknowledge them as their superiors in a Labour stronghold, yes.
    And if they do - it's curtains for the Tories because Reform will point out that they can't win anywhere...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,504
    eek said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    tlg86 said:

    Fishing said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If tariffs are so awful why haven't other nations (And supranational blocks such as the EU) done away with them all ?

    Because economic theory allows for tariffs in certain limited circumstances. When you are protecting infant industries (which America's aren't), when there are industries crucial to non-economic purposes like national security (which these general tariffs don't pretend to protect) and when there are increasing returns to scale (ditto), there is some argument for them.

    Also, politically, powerful lobby groups like farmers and carmakers that benefit hugely from them can influence cowardly or ignorant politicians.
    Are all of the EU tariffs protecting fledgling industries? (genuine question)
    Nope but I think they are mainly national security ones (and food because well the French founded the EU)
    And there's the problem. We're supposed to just accept the French doing what the French do.

    Trump's a moron. But he and the rest of the idiots over there don't owe the world a living.
    Oh they don't but equally the people who are going to be hit by this hardest are Americans where suddenly a lot of things are about to become a lot more expensive.
    That's their problem. Let them get on with it.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,067
    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    tlg86 said:

    Fishing said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If tariffs are so awful why haven't other nations (And supranational blocks such as the EU) done away with them all ?

    Because economic theory allows for tariffs in certain limited circumstances. When you are protecting infant industries (which America's aren't), when there are industries crucial to non-economic purposes like national security (which these general tariffs don't pretend to protect) and when there are increasing returns to scale (ditto), there is some argument for them.

    Also, politically, powerful lobby groups like farmers and carmakers that benefit hugely from them can influence cowardly or ignorant politicians.
    Are all of the EU tariffs protecting fledgling industries? (genuine question)
    Nope but I think they are mainly national security ones (and food because well the French founded the EU)
    And there's the problem. We're supposed to just accept the French doing what the French do.

    Trump's a moron. But he and the rest of the idiots over there don't owe the world a living.
    To be fair, the EU's trade weighted external tariff is pretty tiny - like a just a percent or two, because it has so many free trade agreements.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,096
    edited April 2
    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    eek said:

    tlg86 said:

    Fishing said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If tariffs are so awful why haven't other nations (And supranational blocks such as the EU) done away with them all ?

    Because economic theory allows for tariffs in certain limited circumstances. When you are protecting infant industries (which America's aren't), when there are industries crucial to non-economic purposes like national security (which these general tariffs don't pretend to protect) and when there are increasing returns to scale (ditto), there is some argument for them.

    Also, politically, powerful lobby groups like farmers and carmakers that benefit hugely from them can influence cowardly or ignorant politicians.
    Are all of the EU tariffs protecting fledgling industries? (genuine question)
    Nope but I think they are mainly national security ones (and food because well the French founded the EU)
    And there's the problem. We're supposed to just accept the French doing what the French do.

    Trump's a moron. But he and the rest of the idiots over there don't owe the world a living.
    To be fair, the EU's trade weighted external tariff is pretty tiny - like a just a percent or two, because it has so many free trade agreements.
    Might there be a largish nation it doesn't have one with ?

    Also has anyone here tried to reclaim MwSt or the like post Brexit. Still waiting on our reclaim (By our German accounting firm we hired), submitted a year ago now...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,979
    eek said:

    We’re at risk here of the world pulling together a notAmerica free trade zone and the UK not being part of it

    This is an absurd fantasy. There isn't a NotAmerica free trade zone, and we're already part of the CPTPP and have a free trade zone with the EU.
    Is it? South Korea, Japan and China agreed yesterday to have a single response to the US tariffs. A few agreements like that and it's not a long leap towards reduced tariffs between them for things where the no country has a competitive advantage.
    China is S Korea's largest export market.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,969

    Scott_xP said:

    @jurgen_nauditt

    Meanwhile, the US stock market has lost over $2 trillion in the last 20 minutes.

    https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1907540913431183666

    Trump has done more to fix inequality than Labour.
    What the f*** are you talking about. You are ruining this site with your shilling for Trump. You are a smart guy, are you just trolling libs?
    I posted Daniel Hannan for balance.
    Not something I would normally take as a sop to impartiality. That said, in this instance, fair enough!
  • eekeek Posts: 29,554
    Here's a question - what exactly does the US actually sell to the rest of the world. Because things like iPhones are manufactured and so imported from China / India..
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,067
    Selebian said:

    I don't think it really matters whether other countries apply any retaliatory tariffs as there are going to be consumer boycotts over much of the world against anything 'Made in the USA'.

    Boycott US products and travel there

    Lots of nicer places to visit in the world including Canada where our son and daughter in law live
    I would be delighted to boycott US goods, and I will try, but in due course how do I replace my Apple ecosystem, Microsoft software and the Cloud? Happy to be schooled on this. In the meanwhile, I will avoid the US banking and credit card system, their subscription entertainment offerings and anything else that comes to mind.
    Easy. Use Linux (started by a Finn, although the foundation is US-based, I think) with a non-US distrbution (loads, but Arch is Canadian; SuSE originally German, Swedish parent now) with KDE software (legal entity is a German non-profit). Simple :smiley:
    Mandrake Linux was French... Sadly, it didn't make it.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,790
    glw said:

    I still can't get over Trump's orange face but white ears and hands. Doesn't anyone care enough about him to tell him he looks ridiculous?

    If they did that he'd say... "You're fired" :D
  • eekeek Posts: 29,554
    glw said:

    I still can't get over Trump's orange face but white ears and hands. Doesn't anyone care enough about him to tell him he looks ridiculous?

    His makeup artist hates him...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,969
    eek said:

    Here's a question - what exactly does the US actually sell to the rest of the world. Because things like iPhones are manufactured and so imported from China / India..

    Apple make their profit from the difference between the manufactured cost and the retail price. Making iphones in a highly automated plant in Michigan will make jack shit difference in the grand scheme of things.
  • AugustusCarp2AugustusCarp2 Posts: 286

    eek said:

    “Nike, which produced 50% of its footwear in Vietnam in 2024, plummeted almost 7% in after-hours trading.”

    The bit which Trump is too f*****' thick to realise is a pair of Nike sneakers cost about ten bob to make in Vietnam. The uplift across the World is the difference between that ten bob and the hundred bucks/ Euros/ pounds Nike sell them for. The uplift going in share bonus and head office wages in the US. The man is a f*****' idiot.
    I am not sure if it's true, but I was once told that once upon a time Nike paid more to Michael Jordan in one year than they paid to their entire South East Asian workforce.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,230
    eek said:

    Here's a question - what exactly does the US actually sell to the rest of the world. Because things like iPhones are manufactured and so imported from China / India..

    Tractors.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,067
    eek said:

    Here's a question - what exactly does the US actually sell to the rest of the world. Because things like iPhones are manufactured and so imported from China / India..

    They sell the intellectual property used to make the iPhone. They have the high value bit. They want to also do the low value bit.

    Doing that without damaging the high value bit is the challenge. The risk is that you end up forcing other countries to up their innovation game.
  • If it was about cost most goods wouldn’t be made in China anymore.

    Things are made in China because they have very sophisticated, integrated supply chains and literally millions of people with the skills all in one place.

    The idea this can be undone in five years is for the birds. It’s literally batshit crazy.
  • How this all impacts the UK is kind of impossible to say.

    Reform hitching itself to Trump does not seem a wise move to me.

    Tories are still the value bet IMHO.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,096
    edited April 2
    eek said:

    Here's a question - what exactly does the US actually sell to the rest of the world. Because things like iPhones are manufactured and so imported from China / India..

    Much of the marketplace and advertising stands for trading goods globally.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,191
    edited April 2

    If it was about cost most goods wouldn’t be made in China anymore.

    Things are made in China because they have very sophisticated, integrated supply chains and literally millions of people with the skills all in one place.

    The idea this can be undone in five years is for the birds. It’s literally batshit crazy.

    I don't think we should be calling the President of the United States "It".

    (Another thought- a few hours ago, Musk leaving the government seemed like a good thing, driven by the failure of his electoral intervention. But as someone who actually makes stuff, does it risk making the tariff thing worse, by removing one of the voices that might be able to say that this is batshit?)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,067
    I want to know how -given we've got exactly the same external tariffs as the EU currently- how we only charge the US 10%, while the EU charges 39%?

    Amusingly, if the EU really did charge 39% tariffs on the EUR344bn of goods imported from the US each year, then it would hardly need any dues from its members at all. That 39% would cover the c. EUR134bn of the EU's EUR168bn in spending.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,309

    If it was about cost most goods wouldn’t be made in China anymore.

    Things are made in China because they have very sophisticated, integrated supply chains and literally millions of people with the skills all in one place.

    The idea this can be undone in five years is for the birds. It’s literally batshit crazy.

    Five years? Trump seems to think it can be done virtually overnight.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,979

    eek said:

    Here's a question - what exactly does the US actually sell to the rest of the world. Because things like iPhones are manufactured and so imported from China / India..

    Apple make their profit from the difference between the manufactured cost and the retail price. Making iphones in a highly automated plant in Michigan will make jack shit difference in the grand scheme of things.
    Which plant would that be ?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,462
    edited April 2
    eek said:

    Here's a question - what exactly does the US actually sell to the rest of the world. Because things like iPhones are manufactured and so imported from China / India..

    Assuming that's a serious question, rather a lot - 2024 numbers:

    Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products $320.14B
    Machinery, $252.43B
    Electrical, electronic equipment $213.92B
    Vehicles other than railway, tramway $143.77B
    Aircraft, spacecraft $134.24B
    Optical, photo, technical, medical apparatus $106.29B
    Pharmaceutical products $94.39B
    Plastics $80.08B
    Commodities not specified according to kind $79.23B
    Pearls, precious stones, metals, coins $73.07B
    Organic chemicals $51.88B
    Miscellaneous chemical products $37.25B
    Oil seed, oleagic fruits, grain, seed, fruits $29.98B
    Cereals $24.37B
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,230
    Sorry - I seem to have a triplicate posting earlier.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,225
    rcs1000 said:

    Selebian said:

    I don't think it really matters whether other countries apply any retaliatory tariffs as there are going to be consumer boycotts over much of the world against anything 'Made in the USA'.

    Boycott US products and travel there

    Lots of nicer places to visit in the world including Canada where our son and daughter in law live
    I would be delighted to boycott US goods, and I will try, but in due course how do I replace my Apple ecosystem, Microsoft software and the Cloud? Happy to be schooled on this. In the meanwhile, I will avoid the US banking and credit card system, their subscription entertainment offerings and anything else that comes to mind.
    Easy. Use Linux (started by a Finn, although the foundation is US-based, I think) with a non-US distrbution (loads, but Arch is Canadian; SuSE originally German, Swedish parent now) with KDE software (legal entity is a German non-profit). Simple :smiley:
    Mandrake Linux was French... Sadly, it didn't make it.
    I'd forgotten about mandrake!

    Being full on MAGA I'm on an American distro (variously Red Hat at work and Fedora at home)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,979
    I didn't realise Cory Booker had to dehydrate himself, and didn't drink any water for the entirety of his speech - no bathroom breaks.

    A pretty remarkable feat of endurance.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,230
    rcs1000 said:

    I want to know how -given we've got exactly the same external tariffs as the EU currently- how we only charge the US 10%, while the EU charges 39%?

    Amusingly, if the EU really did charge 39% tariffs on the EUR344bn of goods imported from the US each year, then it would hardly need any dues from its members at all. That 39% would cover the c. EUR134bn of the EU's EUR168bn in spending.

    Is that not Trump just lying to himself as usual, and listening to the voices in his head - because his team are all mushrooms?

    You know ... $350bn sent to Ukraine, massive drug smuggling from Canada and all the rest,
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,969
    edited April 2

    If it was about cost most goods wouldn’t be made in China anymore.

    Things are made in China because they have very sophisticated, integrated supply chains and literally millions of people with the skills all in one place.

    The idea this can be undone in five years is for the birds. It’s literally batshit crazy.

    I would imagine the supply chains aren't in the USA anymore for things like automotive assembly. I don't know the auto supply markets in the USA very well, but I do in the UK, and the component suppliers for UK car manufacturing left for Europe, Eastern Europe, India, Vietnam and China in the 1990s and 2000s. Here in Wales we lost Bosch distributors, Lucas Girling brakes, Ate, Teves, Valeo, SU Butec, Llanelli Radiators, Allied Signal, Signode, Visteon, Ford Engines, Smiths Industries, TRW, Harman ICE systems, BMW pressings, and many, many more. I suspect the same is true in the US. They are not coming back soon, Tesla, Ford, GM, Toyota, Honda, NissanChrysler/Jeep, VW and BMW in the first instance will just have to absorb the cost, or pass it on to consumers.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,067
    In total, the value of customs tariffs collected by the EU in 2023 was €28bn. That's in total across all trade with everyone.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,546
    edited April 2
    rcs1000 said:

    I want to know how -given we've got exactly the same external tariffs as the EU currently- how we only charge the US 10%, while the EU charges 39%?

    Amusingly, if the EU really did charge 39% tariffs on the EUR344bn of goods imported from the US each year, then it would hardly need any dues from its members at all. That 39% would cover the c. EUR134bn of the EU's EUR168bn in spending.

    The 10% tariffs were decided on, then 10% was copied from the right into the left hand column as post-hoc justification. This is the case for every 10% country.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,316

    How this all impacts the UK is kind of impossible to say.

    Reform hitching itself to Trump does not seem a wise move to me.

    Tories are still the value bet IMHO.

    There's a percentage of people who like Trump in the UK of course, albeit not massive. And so far hitching to Trump has not seemed to hinder Reform too much versus the other reasons people are currently supporting them. I imagine Farage will perform some more insincere equivocations if he has to.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,589
    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Tory MP for neighbouring seat to Runcorn & Helsby calls for Tories to stand back and allow Reform to win the seat.

    "Tories should let Reform win Runcorn by-election, says Esther McVey
    Former Cabinet minister proposes that Conservatives should ‘stay out the way’ of a victory for Nigel Farage’s party" (£)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/04/02/tories-let-reform-win-runcorn-byelection-esther-mcvey/

    She's right from 2 perspectives.

    Firstly, it would be awful if the Tory candidate split the Reform candidate's vote and let Labour back in.

    Secondly and more realistically, the Tories are going to get soundly drubbed, so they may as well pretend they never wanted to win.
    No options look good for them. Stand aside and they acknowledge Reform as their superiors or that a formal alliance must be made, but the party is split between people who like or loathe Reform. Standing will be token and Reform look stronger than them anyway, especially if they win despite the Tories trying.
    They acknowledge them as their superiors in a Labour stronghold, yes.
    And if they do - it's curtains for the Tories because Reform will point out that they can't win anywhere...
    The Tories have never won Runcorn, even under Boris
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,969
    edited April 2
    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    Here's a question - what exactly does the US actually sell to the rest of the world. Because things like iPhones are manufactured and so imported from China / India..

    Apple make their profit from the difference between the manufactured cost and the retail price. Making iphones in a highly automated plant in Michigan will make jack shit difference in the grand scheme of things.
    Which plant would that be ?
    I am assuming his plan is to set up low manufacturing value facilities for high retail value consumer goods in rust belt America.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,589
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So does Trump really think that tariffs will simultaneously bring in so much revenue that he can get rid of income tax plus also lead to imports being replaced by US manufacturing ?

    If the imports are replaced where does the tariff revenue come from ?

    The great new rustbelt manufacturing boom and the extra tax revenue
    That extra tax revenue will be paid by US consumers alongside the higher prices.

    You cannot get rich by producing low value added consumer tat.
    Trump has
    At the expense of others not by creating anything of value.

    That might work very well for an individual but it doesn't work for a country.
    It worked for China over the last few decades
    China has sold the consumer tat it produces to richer countries.

    Now which countries are going to buy consumer tat which has been made at American prices ?
    Americans
    So Americans will be paying higher prices.

    That might help those Americans who might be employed at new consumer tat factories but they're going to far exceeded by those Americans who will lose out.
    Not if they buy American
    Who are, for example, these imaginary textile manufacturers they will buy from ?
    Or electronic goods ?

    You're living in a fantasy world.

    Even where there is domestic manufacturing, companies will put up their prices because of the reduced competition.
    And then employ more American workers
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,067
    rcs1000 said:

    In total, the value of customs tariffs collected by the EU in 2023 was €28bn. That's in total across all trade with everyone.

    Even if every penny of that came from the US (hint, it doesn't), it could only be an 8% tariff.
  • kle4 said:

    How this all impacts the UK is kind of impossible to say.

    Reform hitching itself to Trump does not seem a wise move to me.

    Tories are still the value bet IMHO.

    There's a percentage of people who like Trump in the UK of course, albeit not massive. And so far hitching to Trump has not seemed to hinder Reform too much versus the other reasons people are currently supporting them. I imagine Farage will perform some more insincere equivocations if he has to.
    But rightly or wrongly Farage is seen as UK Trump. I just cannot think this can be easily escaped from.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,462
    edited April 2
    eek said:

    tlg86 said:

    Fishing said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If tariffs are so awful why haven't other nations (And supranational blocks such as the EU) done away with them all ?

    Because economic theory allows for tariffs in certain limited circumstances. When you are protecting infant industries (which America's aren't), when there are industries crucial to non-economic purposes like national security (which these general tariffs don't pretend to protect) and when there are increasing returns to scale (ditto), there is some argument for them.

    Also, politically, powerful lobby groups like farmers and carmakers that benefit hugely from them can influence cowardly or ignorant politicians.
    Are all of the EU tariffs protecting fledgling industries? (genuine question)
    Nope but I think they are mainly national security ones (and food because well the French founded the EU)
    Famously (well, famously amongst those of us who have spent too many years negotiating on trade policy in Brussels anyway), the French tried to claim, after intensive lobbying from Danone, that yoghurt was a strategic product that deserved protection. Once you grant an exemption on whatever ground, all of a sudden every industry wants it.

    The EU has a relatively low external tariff not because they had an uncharacteristic attack of economic literacy, but because Germany's exporters' fear of retaliation just about overcame French industry's need for protection.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,589

    HYUFD said:

    glw said:

    I don't think it really matters whether other countries apply any retaliatory tariffs as there are going to be consumer boycotts over much of the world against anything 'Made in the USA'.

    Oh it's much worse than that. There is a hell of lot of stuff that essentially the entire rest of the world now wants to be able to source from anywhere other than the US. China will be top dog in tech by the end of this decade. Trump doesn't realise it but he is about to kill the goose that laid the golden egg.

    The medium and long-term effects of Trump will be worse than the short-term, and that will still be very bad.
    Chinese tech is largely derivative, the tech companies created by entrepreneurs are dominated by US tech firms.

    If you live in the US rustbelt where US industry has steeply declined and manufacturing jobs have steeply fallen while cheap imports, especially from China, have surged you also haven't seen much golden egg recently
    "Chinese tech is largely derivative"

    Might have been true. But is no longer.

    Long piece by Friedman in NY Times on this today:



    "I’d never seen anything like this Huawei campus. Built in just over three years, it consists of 104 individually designed buildings, with manicured lawns, connected by a Disney-like monorail, housing labs for up to 35,000 scientists, engineers and other workers, offering 100 cafes, plus fitness centers and other perks designed to attract the best Chinese and foreign technologists."

    I Just Saw the Future. It Was Not in America.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/02/opinion/trump-tariffs-china.html
    And if so those Chinese tech advances were happening even before Trump's tariffs, which may at least reduce the dominance in cheap consumer goods Chinese manufacturing has had over recent decades especially in the US market
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,420
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So does Trump really think that tariffs will simultaneously bring in so much revenue that he can get rid of income tax plus also lead to imports being replaced by US manufacturing ?

    If the imports are replaced where does the tariff revenue come from ?

    The great new rustbelt manufacturing boom and the extra tax revenue
    That extra tax revenue will be paid by US consumers alongside the higher prices.

    You cannot get rich by producing low value added consumer tat.
    Trump has
    At the expense of others not by creating anything of value.

    That might work very well for an individual but it doesn't work for a country.
    It worked for China over the last few decades
    China has sold the consumer tat it produces to richer countries.

    Now which countries are going to buy consumer tat which has been made at American prices ?
    Americans
    So Americans will be paying higher prices.

    That might help those Americans who might be employed at new consumer tat factories but they're going to far exceeded by those Americans who will lose out.
    Not if they buy American
    Who are, for example, these imaginary textile manufacturers they will buy from ?
    Or electronic goods ?

    You're living in a fantasy world.

    Even where there is domestic manufacturing, companies will put up their prices because of the reduced competition.
    And then employ more American workers
    How much are they going to pay these new American workers to produce consumer tat ?

    Because if its not competitive compared to other jobs they wont get any workers and if they do pay competitive wages then that will increase the product price even more.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,969

    If it was about cost most goods wouldn’t be made in China anymore.

    Things are made in China because they have very sophisticated, integrated supply chains and literally millions of people with the skills all in one place.

    The idea this can be undone in five years is for the birds. It’s literally batshit crazy.

    I would imagine the supply chains aren't in the USA anymore for things like automotive assembly. I don't know the auto supply markets in the USA very well, but I do in the UK, and the component suppliers for UK car manufacturing left for Europe, Eastern Europe, India, Vietnam and China in the 1990s and 2000s. Here in Wales we lost Bosch distributors, Lucas Girling brakes, Ate, Teves, Valeo, SU Butec, Llanelli Radiators, Allied Signal, Signode, Visteon, Ford Engines, Smiths Industries, TRW, Harman ICE systems, BMW pressings, and many, many more. I suspect the same is true in the US. They are not coming back soon, Tesla, Ford, GM, Toyota, Honda, NissanChrysler/Jeep, VW and BMW in the first instance will just have to absorb the cost, or pass it on to consumers.
    I missed out Mercedes Benz in Oklahoma. So basically (and I'm not sure of Hyundai/Kia) all the key automotive suppliers to the US already have US manufacturing capacity. Land Rover and Mini don't, so we are f*****!
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,420
    kle4 said:

    How this all impacts the UK is kind of impossible to say.

    Reform hitching itself to Trump does not seem a wise move to me.

    Tories are still the value bet IMHO.

    There's a percentage of people who like Trump in the UK of course, albeit not massive. And so far hitching to Trump has not seemed to hinder Reform too much versus the other reasons people are currently supporting them. I imagine Farage will perform some more insincere equivocations if he has to.
    If Trump stuck to immigration and social issues he would be quite popular in other countries.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,554

    If it was about cost most goods wouldn’t be made in China anymore.

    Things are made in China because they have very sophisticated, integrated supply chains and literally millions of people with the skills all in one place.

    The idea this can be undone in five years is for the birds. It’s literally batshit crazy.

    I would imagine the supply chains aren't in the USA anymore for things like automotive assembly. I don't know the auto supply markets in the USA very well, but I do in the UK, and the component suppliers for UK car manufacturing left for Europe, Eastern Europe, India, Vietnam and China in the 1990s and 2000s. Here in Wales we lost Bosch distributors, Lucas Girling brakes, Ate, Teves, Valeo, SU Butec, Llanelli Radiators, Allied Signal, Signode, Visteon, Ford Engines, Smiths Industries, TRW, Harman ICE systems, BMW pressings, and many, many more. I suspect the same is true in the US. They are not coming back soon, Tesla, Ford, GM, Toyota, Honda, NissanChrysler/Jeep, VW and BMW in the first instance will just have to absorb the cost, or pass it on to consumers.
    No they will just (at best quietly over time) pass it on to the consumers. Your $50,000 car will in a year or 2 cost $62,000 or so .
  • Labour got blamed for the 2007/2008 recession so presumably they get blamed for this one.

    Unless there’s some substantial change, got to be a minority government next time around.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,955
    Trumps tariff board was plucked out of his ass !

    I expect though it will go down well with the gullible, low information voters which make up his base .

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,969

    Labour got blamed for the 2007/2008 recession so presumably they get blamed for this one.

    Unless there’s some substantial change, got to be a minority government next time around.

    There is a lot of water to run under the bridge yet. Trump could become so toxic that anyone who has picked up his diaper aroma over the years will be incredibly toxic (Farage, I'm looking at you).

    I was very unimpressed with Reeves at the Select Commitee today. I doubt she lasts into the autumn. Darren Jones?
  • glwglw Posts: 10,309
    nico67 said:

    Trumps tariff board was plucked out of his ass !

    I expect though it will go down well with the gullible, low information voters which make up his base .

    Right now? Maybe, but I expect they will be a lot less happy when they next go shopping and see the first price rises.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,153
    "Trump approval falls to 43%, lowest since returning to office, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds"

    https://www.reuters.com/default/trump-approval-falls-43-lowest-since-returning-office-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2025-04-02/
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,955

    Labour got blamed for the 2007/2008 recession so presumably they get blamed for this one.

    Unless there’s some substantial change, got to be a minority government next time around.

    There is a lot of water to run under the bridge yet. Trump could become so toxic that anyone who has picked up his diaper aroma over the years will be incredibly toxic (Farage, I'm looking at you).

    I was very unimpressed with Reeves at the Select Commitee today. I doubt she lasts into the autumn. Darren Jones?
    The media have been useless at going after Farage on his Trump links. It’s about time they nailed him on this .
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,589

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So does Trump really think that tariffs will simultaneously bring in so much revenue that he can get rid of income tax plus also lead to imports being replaced by US manufacturing ?

    If the imports are replaced where does the tariff revenue come from ?

    The great new rustbelt manufacturing boom and the extra tax revenue
    That extra tax revenue will be paid by US consumers alongside the higher prices.

    You cannot get rich by producing low value added consumer tat.
    Trump has
    At the expense of others not by creating anything of value.

    That might work very well for an individual but it doesn't work for a country.
    It worked for China over the last few decades
    China has sold the consumer tat it produces to richer countries.

    Now which countries are going to buy consumer tat which has been made at American prices ?
    Americans
    So Americans will be paying higher prices.

    That might help those Americans who might be employed at new consumer tat factories but they're going to far exceeded by those Americans who will lose out.
    Not if they buy American
    Who are, for example, these imaginary textile manufacturers they will buy from ?
    Or electronic goods ?

    You're living in a fantasy world.

    Even where there is domestic manufacturing, companies will put up their prices because of the reduced competition.
    And then employ more American workers
    How much are they going to pay these new American workers to produce consumer tat ?

    Because if its not competitive compared to other jobs they wont get any workers and if they do pay competitive wages then that will increase the product price even more.
    The main reason rustbelt voters voted for Trump was precisely because their wages were low, if they were all in high paying jobs they wouldn't need to vote to rebuild US manufacturing industry would they!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,153
    Hyper-liberalism alert.

    "The Le Pen ruling is good for liberal democracy, writes Tarik Abou-Chadi
    The Oxford professor says it shouldn’t matter whether the verdict emboldens the hard right or not"

    https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2025/04/02/the-le-pen-ruling-is-good-for-liberal-democracy-writes-tarik-abou-chadi
  • eekeek Posts: 29,554
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So does Trump really think that tariffs will simultaneously bring in so much revenue that he can get rid of income tax plus also lead to imports being replaced by US manufacturing ?

    If the imports are replaced where does the tariff revenue come from ?

    The great new rustbelt manufacturing boom and the extra tax revenue
    That extra tax revenue will be paid by US consumers alongside the higher prices.

    You cannot get rich by producing low value added consumer tat.
    Trump has
    At the expense of others not by creating anything of value.

    That might work very well for an individual but it doesn't work for a country.
    It worked for China over the last few decades
    China has sold the consumer tat it produces to richer countries.

    Now which countries are going to buy consumer tat which has been made at American prices ?
    Americans
    So Americans will be paying higher prices.

    That might help those Americans who might be employed at new consumer tat factories but they're going to far exceeded by those Americans who will lose out.
    Not if they buy American
    Who are, for example, these imaginary textile manufacturers they will buy from ?
    Or electronic goods ?

    You're living in a fantasy world.

    Even where there is domestic manufacturing, companies will put up their prices because of the reduced competition.
    And then employ more American workers
    How much are they going to pay these new American workers to produce consumer tat ?

    Because if its not competitive compared to other jobs they wont get any workers and if they do pay competitive wages then that will increase the product price even more.
    The main reason rustbelt voters voted for Trump was precisely because their wages were low, if they were all in high paying jobs they wouldn't need to vote to rebuild US manufacturing industry would they!
    It isn't going to rebuild the US industry - because the tariffs put a limit on the price that can be charged unless Trump wishes to put 200% tariffs on specific items...
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,955
    So all the Starmer arse licking of Trump got us the same tariff as Egypt !

    The spin coming out of no 10 is embarrassing .

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,316
    nico67 said:

    Labour got blamed for the 2007/2008 recession so presumably they get blamed for this one.

    Unless there’s some substantial change, got to be a minority government next time around.

    There is a lot of water to run under the bridge yet. Trump could become so toxic that anyone who has picked up his diaper aroma over the years will be incredibly toxic (Farage, I'm looking at you).

    I was very unimpressed with Reeves at the Select Commitee today. I doubt she lasts into the autumn. Darren Jones?
    The media have been useless at going after Farage on his Trump links. It’s about time they nailed him on this .
    Problem is if no one really likes Kemi or Keir that much, and the LDs will always be a side option, then a lot of people will see pointing out those links as just another tactic to undermine someone they do like. Even when it is true.

    So it can have some effect, but to be truly impactful one of the big two needs to get actually popular so people listen to them. Not easy.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,316
    edited April 2
    eek said:

    Just figured out where these fake tariff rates come from. They didn't actually calculate tariff rates + non-tariff barriers, as they say they did. Instead, for every country, they just took our trade deficit with that country and divided it by the country's exports to us.

    So we have a $17.9 billion trade deficit with Indonesia. Its exports to us are $28 billion. $17.9/$28 = 64%, which Trump claims is the tariff rate Indonesia charges us. What extraordinary nonsense this is.

    https://x.com/JamesSurowiecki/status/1907559189234196942

    Yes Trump is that stupid and to say it came out of his arse is a complete underestimate of the stupidity of the estimate.

    Is that accurate? That's so silly! I won't ask how people could buy that, few people understand economics least of all me, and it's going off the vibes (the vibe being 'other nations are taking us for a ride, but Trump will stop that), but it's still ridiculous.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,420
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So does Trump really think that tariffs will simultaneously bring in so much revenue that he can get rid of income tax plus also lead to imports being replaced by US manufacturing ?

    If the imports are replaced where does the tariff revenue come from ?

    The great new rustbelt manufacturing boom and the extra tax revenue
    That extra tax revenue will be paid by US consumers alongside the higher prices.

    You cannot get rich by producing low value added consumer tat.
    Trump has
    At the expense of others not by creating anything of value.

    That might work very well for an individual but it doesn't work for a country.
    It worked for China over the last few decades
    China has sold the consumer tat it produces to richer countries.

    Now which countries are going to buy consumer tat which has been made at American prices ?
    Americans
    So Americans will be paying higher prices.

    That might help those Americans who might be employed at new consumer tat factories but they're going to far exceeded by those Americans who will lose out.
    Not if they buy American
    Who are, for example, these imaginary textile manufacturers they will buy from ?
    Or electronic goods ?

    You're living in a fantasy world.

    Even where there is domestic manufacturing, companies will put up their prices because of the reduced competition.
    And then employ more American workers
    How much are they going to pay these new American workers to produce consumer tat ?

    Because if its not competitive compared to other jobs they wont get any workers and if they do pay competitive wages then that will increase the product price even more.
    The main reason rustbelt voters voted for Trump was precisely because their wages were low, if they were all in high paying jobs they wouldn't need to vote to rebuild US manufacturing industry would they!
    How many people do you think will be working in new consumer tat factories and what pay rates do you think they'll be getting ?

    Now how many people will not be working in new consumer tat factories and how much extra will they be paying for this consumer tat ?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,403
    Andy_JS said:

    Hyper-liberalism alert.

    "The Le Pen ruling is good for liberal democracy, writes Tarik Abou-Chadi
    The Oxford professor says it shouldn’t matter whether the verdict emboldens the hard right or not"

    https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2025/04/02/the-le-pen-ruling-is-good-for-liberal-democracy-writes-tarik-abou-chadi

    RN voters can still vote for Bardella, non?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,969
    glw said:

    I still can't get over Trump's orange face but white ears and hands. Doesn't anyone care enough about him to tell him he looks ridiculous?

    Emperor's new clothes syndrome.

    Donald, you look gorgeous!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,153
    "Woman left abandoned on Tube platform by TfL staff after 'traumatising' attack

    Sally Wynter has called for urgent safety review after no one came to her aid when she hit emergency button at busy central London station

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/millionaire-tube-assault-tfl-sadiq-khan-london-b1220320.html
  • vikvik Posts: 178
    FF43 said:

    I see the Falkland Islands have been hit by a 41% tariff; Argentina only 10%.

    Malvinas here we come?

    He's done the same insane thing with Australia's islands.

    Australia, as a country, gets a 10% tariff, but Norfolk Island (an integral part of Australia) gets a 29% tariff.

    Also, for some strange reason, Heard and McDonald Islands is listed separately in Trump's tariff list, with a 10% tariff. The Heard and McDonald Islands has a population of zero & its only inhabitants are penguins.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,288
    Has the US "mainstream media" decided to just spread Trump propaganda?

    Eg NBC is reporting

    The reciprocal duties will be equal to half the rates those countries charge on American exports

    https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/trump-reciprocal-tariffs-trade-markets-impact-what-know-rcna198207
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,394
    vik said:

    FF43 said:

    I see the Falkland Islands have been hit by a 41% tariff; Argentina only 10%.

    Malvinas here we come?

    He's done the same insane thing with Australia's islands.

    Australia, as a country, gets a 10% tariff, but Norfolk Island (an integral part of Australia) gets a 29% tariff.

    Also, for some strange reason, Heard and McDonald Islands is listed separately in Trump's tariff list, with a 10% tariff. The Heard and McDonald Islands has a population of zero & its only inhabitants are penguins.
    Sad to hear of penguinophobia.

    Good morning, everyone.
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 587
    Nasdaq futures are down 4.2% as the world sells off American stocks. Thursday will be a blood bath for the american economy. This is a disaster for America.... wow.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,967
    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Tory MP for neighbouring seat to Runcorn & Helsby calls for Tories to stand back and allow Reform to win the seat.

    "Tories should let Reform win Runcorn by-election, says Esther McVey
    Former Cabinet minister proposes that Conservatives should ‘stay out the way’ of a victory for Nigel Farage’s party" (£)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/04/02/tories-let-reform-win-runcorn-byelection-esther-mcvey/

    She's right from 2 perspectives.

    Firstly, it would be awful if the Tory candidate split the Reform candidate's vote and let Labour back in.

    Secondly and more realistically, the Tories are going to get soundly drubbed, so they may as well pretend they never wanted to win.
    No options look good for them. Stand aside and they acknowledge Reform as their superiors or that a formal alliance must be made, but the party is split between people who like or loathe Reform. Standing will be token and Reform look stronger than them anyway, especially if they win despite the Tories trying.
    They acknowledge them as their superiors in a Labour stronghold, yes.
    And if they do - it's curtains for the Tories because Reform will point out that they can't win anywhere...
    More pointedly, the Tories’ pitch (and indeed self image) has always been of being the ‘natural’ party of government. Which in the UK means a majority party; indeed the majority party, except for those periods when Labour gives them a rest. Accepting being just one of many interest groups competing for support in a more plural system would be a dramatic shift.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,288

    Nasdaq futures are down 4.2% as the world sells off American stocks. Thursday will be a blood bath for the american economy. This is a disaster for America.... wow.

    How many of these tariffs will actually be imposed, and if imposed how long will they last?

    Interesting that Trump includes a demand to align with the US on "national security matters" as a condition for reducing tariffs.

    Is this a message to Europe - spend those higher defence budgets on American weapons if you want lower tariffs?

    https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/04/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-declares-national-emergency-to-increase-our-competitive-edge-protect-our-sovereignty-and-strengthen-our-national-and-economic-security/

    Today’s IEEPA Order also contains modification authority, allowing President Trump to increase the tariff if trading partners retaliate or decrease the tariffs if trading partners take significant steps to remedy non-reciprocal trade arrangements and align with the United States on economic and national security matters.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,967

    Labour got blamed for the 2007/2008 recession so presumably they get blamed for this one.

    Unless there’s some substantial change, got to be a minority government next time around.

    There is a lot of water to run under the bridge yet. Trump could become so toxic that anyone who has picked up his diaper aroma over the years will be incredibly toxic (Farage, I'm looking at you).

    I was very unimpressed with Reeves at the Select Commitee today. I doubt she lasts into the autumn. Darren Jones?
    Streeting will want the job. It’s a promotion, and he’s the senior politician. Previous shadow first secretary. A route to the top. And gets him out of health before the **** hits the fan.
  • scampi25scampi25 Posts: 76
    The level of hyperbole on here about some of the changes exceeds some of the actual tariff rises. Really we need to see how negotiations change things. Talk of trade wars and 'coalitions' against Trump's US are silly. I don't think his measures will work as they are but we must let the dust settle - and the UK does relatively well. The truth is that some countries don't exactly have clean hands re tariffs.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,967
    vik said:

    FF43 said:

    I see the Falkland Islands have been hit by a 41% tariff; Argentina only 10%.

    Malvinas here we come?

    He's done the same insane thing with Australia's islands.

    Australia, as a country, gets a 10% tariff, but Norfolk Island (an integral part of Australia) gets a 29% tariff.

    Also, for some strange reason, Heard and McDonald Islands is listed separately in Trump's tariff list, with a 10% tariff. The Heard and McDonald Islands has a population of zero & its only inhabitants are penguins.
    Watch out for a shock hike in the price of Guinness?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,267
    vik said:

    FF43 said:

    I see the Falkland Islands have been hit by a 41% tariff; Argentina only 10%.

    Malvinas here we come?

    He's done the same insane thing with Australia's islands.

    Australia, as a country, gets a 10% tariff, but Norfolk Island (an integral part of Australia) gets a 29% tariff.

    Also, for some strange reason, Heard and McDonald Islands is listed separately in Trump's tariff list, with a 10% tariff. The Heard and McDonald Islands has a population of zero & its only inhabitants are penguins.
    And Australia doesn't even export penguins.

    They export Tim Tams.
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 587
    edited April 3
    The us with 12% of global gdp has set up tariffs against the rest of the world, which has 88% of global gdp. The pain for Americans and the rest will be the inverse: 88% financial pain for Americans and 12% for the rest of the world. Not only that: watch US share of global gdp drop like a rock over the next years as capital pursues more stable markets. This is literally decimating the foundation of American prosperity. I wonder where the dollar and interest rates are heading after this. Trump is having his Liz Truss moment.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,819
    Andy_JS said:

    "Trump approval falls to 43%, lowest since returning to office, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds"

    https://www.reuters.com/default/trump-approval-falls-43-lowest-since-returning-office-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2025-04-02/

    43% is extraordinarily high for such random bonkers and destructive policies.

    "Couldn't be worse than Biden"? Hold my beer.
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 587
    kamski said:

    Nasdaq futures are down 4.2% as the world sells off American stocks. Thursday will be a blood bath for the american economy. This is a disaster for America.... wow.

    How many of these tariffs will actually be imposed, and if imposed how long will they last?

    Interesting that Trump includes a demand to align with the US on "national security matters" as a condition for reducing tariffs.

    Is this a message to Europe - spend those higher defence budgets on American weapons if you want lower tariffs?

    https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/04/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-declares-national-emergency-to-increase-our-competitive-edge-protect-our-sovereignty-and-strengthen-our-national-and-economic-security/

    Today’s IEEPA Order also contains modification authority, allowing President Trump to increase the tariff if trading partners retaliate or decrease the tariffs if trading partners take significant steps to remedy non-reciprocal trade arrangements and align with the United States on economic and national security matters.
    It doesn't really matter. It is an issue of market predictability. The US is an undesirable business environment. Anybody who tries to do strategic planning depending on the US is putting their heads on the chopping block for a shakedown .... nations and investors are going to shun the US like the plague. It is a disaster for them.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,587

    The us with 12% of global gdp has set up tariffs against the rest of the world, which has 88% of global gdp. The pain for Americans and the rest will be the inverse: 88% financial pain for Americans and 12% for the rest of the world. Not only that: watch US share of global gdp drop like a rock over the next years as capital pursues more stable markets. This is literally decimating the foundation of American prosperity. I wonder where the dollar and interest rates are heading after this. Trump is having his Liz Truss moment.

    But there mechanisms to stop Truss, and they worked.

    What stops Trump?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,288
    scampi25 said:

    The level of hyperbole on here about some of the changes exceeds some of the actual tariff rises. Really we need to see how negotiations change things. Talk of trade wars and 'coalitions' against Trump's US are silly. I don't think his measures will work as they are but we must let the dust settle - and the UK does relatively well. The truth is that some countries don't exactly have clean hands re tariffs.

    Very hard to know what you are talking about unless you give specific examples, and make some actual arguments.

    What comments are hyperbole, and which, if any, are reasonable criticism?

    Which tariff rises warrant the hyperbole and which don't?

    Which countries don't have clean hands re tariffs? What tariffs do they impose?

    Why is talk of a trade war silly?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,950
    vik said:

    FF43 said:

    I see the Falkland Islands have been hit by a 41% tariff; Argentina only 10%.

    Malvinas here we come?

    He's done the same insane thing with Australia's islands.

    Australia, as a country, gets a 10% tariff, but Norfolk Island (an integral part of Australia) gets a 29% tariff.

    Also, for some strange reason, Heard and McDonald Islands is listed separately in Trump's tariff list, with a 10% tariff. The Heard and McDonald Islands has a population of zero & its only inhabitants are penguins.
    Very big in biscuits I believe.
  • scampi25scampi25 Posts: 76
    kamski said:

    scampi25 said:

    The level of hyperbole on here about some of the changes exceeds some of the actual tariff rises. Really we need to see how negotiations change things. Talk of trade wars and 'coalitions' against Trump's US are silly. I don't think his measures will work as they are but we must let the dust settle - and the UK does relatively well. The truth is that some countries don't exactly have clean hands re tariffs.

    Very hard to know what you are talking about unless you give specific examples, and make some actual arguments.

    What comments are hyperbole, and which, if any, are reasonable criticism?

    Which tariff rises warrant the hyperbole and which don't?

    Which countries don't have clean hands re tariffs? What tariffs do they impose?

    Why is talk of a trade war silly?
    I'm content with my comment.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,104

    The us with 12% of global gdp has set up tariffs against the rest of the world, which has 88% of global gdp. The pain for Americans and the rest will be the inverse: 88% financial pain for Americans and 12% for the rest of the world. Not only that: watch US share of global gdp drop like a rock over the next years as capital pursues more stable markets. This is literally decimating the foundation of American prosperity. I wonder where the dollar and interest rates are heading after this. Trump is having his Liz Truss moment.

    But there mechanisms to stop Truss, and they worked.

    What stops Trump?
    If there is a deep state, Trump will die of a mysterious heart attack within 48 hours.

    Unfortunately outside his supporters' brains there isn't.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,967

    The us with 12% of global gdp has set up tariffs against the rest of the world, which has 88% of global gdp. The pain for Americans and the rest will be the inverse: 88% financial pain for Americans and 12% for the rest of the world. Not only that: watch US share of global gdp drop like a rock over the next years as capital pursues more stable markets. This is literally decimating the foundation of American prosperity. I wonder where the dollar and interest rates are heading after this. Trump is having his Liz Truss moment.

    Also the $ is sinking sharply, which will magnify the effect of the tariffs on import prices as well as making it more expensive for Americans to travel abroad.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,819
    Scott_xP said:

    @newseye.bsky.social‬

    The stupidity in Trump’s new tariffs is apparently limitless.

    He has introduced a 10% tariff on the British Indian Ocean Territory.

    The only inhabited island there is Diego Garcia, home to US service personnel.

    TRUMP HAS PUT A TARIFF ON A US MILITARY BASE

    🤡

    https://bsky.app/profile/newseye.bsky.social/post/3llui6vdqas2h

    It's because everywhere gets a tariff, with 10% the minimum. Much more if you sell a lot of stuff to the USA.

    So we get 10% not because Starmer has kissed arse, but rather because we don't have much trade imbalance with Trumpistan.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,554
    ydoethur said:

    The us with 12% of global gdp has set up tariffs against the rest of the world, which has 88% of global gdp. The pain for Americans and the rest will be the inverse: 88% financial pain for Americans and 12% for the rest of the world. Not only that: watch US share of global gdp drop like a rock over the next years as capital pursues more stable markets. This is literally decimating the foundation of American prosperity. I wonder where the dollar and interest rates are heading after this. Trump is having his Liz Truss moment.

    But there mechanisms to stop Truss, and they worked.

    What stops Trump?
    If there is a deep state, Trump will die of a mysterious heart attack within 48 hours.

    Unfortunately outside his supporters' brains there isn't.
    That wouldn’t solve anything because Vance will continue the same policies (because they were his to begin with).
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,587

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So does Trump really think that tariffs will simultaneously bring in so much revenue that he can get rid of income tax plus also lead to imports being replaced by US manufacturing ?

    If the imports are replaced where does the tariff revenue come from ?

    The great new rustbelt manufacturing boom and the extra tax revenue
    That extra tax revenue will be paid by US consumers alongside the higher prices.

    You cannot get rich by producing low value added consumer tat.
    Trump has
    At the expense of others not by creating anything of value.

    That might work very well for an individual but it doesn't work for a country.
    It worked for China over the last few decades
    China has sold the consumer tat it produces to richer countries.

    Now which countries are going to buy consumer tat which has been made at American prices ?
    Americans
    So Americans will be paying higher prices.

    That might help those Americans who might be employed at new consumer tat factories but they're going to far exceeded by those Americans who will lose out.
    Not if they buy American
    Who are, for example, these imaginary textile manufacturers they will buy from ?
    Or electronic goods ?

    You're living in a fantasy world.

    Even where there is domestic manufacturing, companies will put up their prices because of the reduced competition.
    And then employ more American workers
    How much are they going to pay these new American workers to produce consumer tat ?

    Because if its not competitive compared to other jobs they wont get any workers and if they do pay competitive wages then that will increase the product price even more.
    Would you really want to commit to building plant in the USA when it has such unpredictable government?
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