Look, I know it doesn't look like it tonight - but these tariffs announcements are good news in the long-run. Good for the US and for the world.
Why? Because Trump is setting fire to the US economy. This will significantly weaken him politically and hamper his ability to irrevocably undermine democracy and the rule of law in America.
His economic policy is so batshit insane - positively Truss-ian - that it will weaken him in the medium-term. The institutions of the US are more important to us than the impact of (relatively) short-term tariffs.
I'm not sure you have the Truss correlation right. Fox News will blame Biden and Red Neck America will believe them.
The weird thing is that America trashed every single one of its relationships around the world for what - China to benefit? Does any else really want American cars?
China and Russia cannot believe their fortune. America is happily, proudly, aggravating all their allies, treating thrm like shit, and there's no sign they will pull back. If anything it will get worse as Trump lashes out if challenged.
Look, I know it doesn't look like it tonight - but these tariffs announcements are good news in the long-run. Good for the US and for the world.
Why? Because Trump is setting fire to the US economy. This will significantly weaken him politically and hamper his ability to irrevocably undermine democracy and the rule of law in America.
His economic policy is so batshit insane - positively Truss-ian - that it will weaken him in the medium-term. The institutions of the US are more important to us than the impact of (relatively) short-term tariffs.
I'm not sure you have the Truss correlation right. Fox News will blame Biden and Red Neck America will believe them.
It's the fault of internal enemies no doubt. The institutions have already failed when Senators capitulate on cabinet appointees who are blatantly unqualified and the Supreme Court is openly on the side of corruption and unfettered presidential power.
Look, I know it doesn't look like it tonight - but these tariffs announcements are good news in the long-run. Good for the US and for the world.
Why? Because Trump is setting fire to the US economy. This will significantly weaken him politically and hamper his ability to irrevocably undermine democracy and the rule of law in America.
His economic policy is so batshit insane - positively Truss-ian - that it will weaken him in the medium-term. The institutions of the US are more important to us than the impact of (relatively) short-term tariffs.
Does MAGA America understand that the whole world is laughing at them? They’ve just smashed a huge tax on themselves, with YOU BUY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF AMERICAN GOODS what they genuinely think we will be forced to do.
So does Trump really think that tariffs will simultaneously bring in so much revenue that he can get rid of income tax plus also lead to imports being replaced by US manufacturing ?
If the imports are replaced where does the tariff revenue come from ?
The great new rustbelt manufacturing boom and the extra tax revenue
That extra tax revenue will be paid by US consumers alongside the higher prices.
You cannot get rich by producing low value added consumer tat.
Trump has
At the expense of others not by creating anything of value.
That might work very well for an individual but it doesn't work for a country.
It worked for China over the last few decades
China has sold the consumer tat it produces to richer countries.
Now which countries are going to buy consumer tat which has been made at American prices ?
Americans
So Americans will be paying higher prices.
That might help those Americans who might be employed at new consumer tat factories but they're going to far exceeded by those Americans who will lose out.
I don't think it really matters whether other countries apply any retaliatory tariffs as there are going to be consumer boycotts over much of the world against anything 'Made in the USA'.
Boycott US products and travel there
Lots of nicer places to visit in the world including Canada where our son and daughter in law live
I would be delighted to boycott US goods, and I will try, but in due course how do I replace my Apple ecosystem, Microsoft software and the Cloud? Happy to be schooled on this. In the meanwhile, I will avoid the US banking and credit card system, their subscription entertainment offerings and anything else that comes to mind.
Visa and Mastercard are American - love to know who you avoid them..
Good point, thanks. I will just have to use my Nat West Debit Card instead. It will be irritating, but no undue hardship.
It uses Mastercard !!!!
AAARRRGGGHHHH ! Is that so? Is everything in the banking system working on US architecture?
If tariffs are so awful why haven't other nations (And supranational blocks such as the EU) done away with them all ?
The US economy is based around consumption like nowhere else in the world, and it was till now iirc one of the lowest tariffed. Obviously that's gone but there's a distinct whiff of hypocrisy around the coverage imv.
Does MAGA America understand that the whole world is laughing at them? They’ve just smashed a huge tax on themselves, with YOU BUY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF AMERICAN GOODS what they genuinely think we will be forced to do.
Piss funny.
Wouldn't Davy's plan for retaliation be slapping a huge tax on us?
Does MAGA America understand that the whole world is laughing at them? They’ve just smashed a huge tax on themselves, with YOU BUY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF AMERICAN GOODS what they genuinely think we will be forced to do.
Piss funny.
They knew the world laughed at Trump before. It didnt cause them to question him, but to want him to be more aggressive and show off their power.
So it will be again. Theyve already started seeing allies as enemies, reacting to him (and it needs reacting to) will just solidify that to them.
I don't think it really matters whether other countries apply any retaliatory tariffs as there are going to be consumer boycotts over much of the world against anything 'Made in the USA'.
Oh it's much worse than that. There is a hell of lot of stuff that essentially the entire rest of the world now wants to be able to source from anywhere other than the US. China will be top dog in tech by the end of this decade. Trump doesn't realise it but he is about to kill the goose that laid the golden egg.
The medium and long-term effects of Trump will be worse than the short-term, and that will still be very bad.
I don't think it really matters whether other countries apply any retaliatory tariffs as there are going to be consumer boycotts over much of the world against anything 'Made in the USA'.
Boycott US products and travel there
Lots of nicer places to visit in the world including Canada where our son and daughter in law live
I would be delighted to boycott US goods, and I will try, but in due course how do I replace my Apple ecosystem, Microsoft software and the Cloud? Happy to be schooled on this. In the meanwhile, I will avoid the US banking and credit card system, their subscription entertainment offerings and anything else that comes to mind.
Visa and Mastercard are American - love to know who you avoid them..
Good point, thanks. I will just have to use my Nat West Debit Card instead. It will be irritating, but no undue hardship.
It uses Mastercard !!!!
AAARRRGGGHHHH ! Is that so? Is everything in the banking system working on US architecture?
We used to have indigeonous ones - Switch and Maestro. But not for a while.
Great opportunity for someone to start up a competitor to Visa/Mastercard. I reckon enough people would switch on principle, I would.
I don't think it really matters whether other countries apply any retaliatory tariffs as there are going to be consumer boycotts over much of the world against anything 'Made in the USA'.
Boycott US products and travel there
Lots of nicer places to visit in the world including Canada where our son and daughter in law live
I would be delighted to boycott US goods, and I will try, but in due course how do I replace my Apple ecosystem, Microsoft software and the Cloud? Happy to be schooled on this. In the meanwhile, I will avoid the US banking and credit card system, their subscription entertainment offerings and anything else that comes to mind.
Visa and Mastercard are American - love to know who you avoid them..
Good point, thanks. I will just have to use my Nat West Debit Card instead. It will be irritating, but no undue hardship.
It uses Mastercard !!!!
AAARRRGGGHHHH ! Is that so? Is everything in the banking system working on US architecture?
Elon Musk electioneering in the Wisconsin Supreme Court Election, declaring that they must get out to vote because that particular election will help determine the future of humanity.
Quite ... OTT.
(Deep link to the Bulwark podcast, couple of minutes)
Does MAGA America understand that the whole world is laughing at them? They’ve just smashed a huge tax on themselves, with YOU BUY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF AMERICAN GOODS what they genuinely think we will be forced to do.
Piss funny.
Wouldn't Davy's plan for retaliation be slapping a huge tax on us?
No. We do a free trade deal with notAmerica. No tariffs. Just don’t buy TENS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF AMERICAN GOODS.
If tariffs are so awful why haven't other nations (And supranational blocks such as the EU) done away with them all ?
The US economy is based around consumption like nowhere else in the world, and it was till now iirc one of the lowest tariffed. Obviously that's gone but there's a distinct whiff of hypocrisy around the coverage imv.
Is thinking it twice as bad as it is worse than thinking it half as bad as it is?
Our economy is in the shit and the consequence seem likely to get worse due to this with impacts for years.
Does MAGA America understand that the whole world is laughing at them? They’ve just smashed a huge tax on themselves, with YOU BUY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF AMERICAN GOODS what they genuinely think we will be forced to do.
Piss funny.
Wouldn't Davy's plan for retaliation be slapping a huge tax on us?
No. We do a free trade deal with notAmerica. No tariffs. Just don’t buy TENS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF AMERICAN GOODS.
If NotAmerica is so against tariffs, why do they exist in order for it to be necessary to eliminate them in response to Trump?
Does MAGA America understand that the whole world is laughing at them? They’ve just smashed a huge tax on themselves, with YOU BUY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF AMERICAN GOODS what they genuinely think we will be forced to do.
Piss funny.
Wouldn't Davy's plan for retaliation be slapping a huge tax on us?
No. We do a free trade deal with notAmerica. No tariffs. Just don’t buy TENS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF AMERICAN GOODS.
If NotAmerica is so against tariffs, why do they exist in order for it to be necessary to eliminate them in response to Trump?
Does MAGA America understand that the whole world is laughing at them? They’ve just smashed a huge tax on themselves, with YOU BUY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF AMERICAN GOODS what they genuinely think we will be forced to do.
Piss funny.
Wouldn't Davy's plan for retaliation be slapping a huge tax on us?
Netflix, Disney plus, Discovery, Amazon Prime, Paramount plus, Apple TV all up by 10%> Shopping at Amazon and on eBay up by 10% Financial services using US payments platforms up be 10%.
Perhaps the best way really is consumers boycotting US products and services where possible.
Nonetheless Chas needs to rescind the invite to Balmoral.
I don't think it really matters whether other countries apply any retaliatory tariffs as there are going to be consumer boycotts over much of the world against anything 'Made in the USA'.
Oh it's much worse than that. There is a hell of lot of stuff that essentially the entire rest of the world now wants to be able to source from anywhere other than the US. China will be top dog in tech by the end of this decade. Trump doesn't realise it but he is about to kill the goose that laid the golden egg.
The medium and long-term effects of Trump will be worse than the short-term, and that will still be very bad.
Chinese tech is largely derivative, the tech companies created by entrepreneurs are dominated by US tech firms.
If you live in the US rustbelt where US industry has steeply declined and manufacturing jobs have steeply fallen while cheap imports, especially from China, have surged you also haven't seen much golden egg recently
Does MAGA America understand that the whole world is laughing at them? They’ve just smashed a huge tax on themselves, with YOU BUY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF AMERICAN GOODS what they genuinely think we will be forced to do.
Piss funny.
Wouldn't Davy's plan for retaliation be slapping a huge tax on us?
No. We do a free trade deal with notAmerica. No tariffs. Just don’t buy TENS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF AMERICAN GOODS.
If NotAmerica is so against tariffs, why do they exist in order for it to be necessary to eliminate them in response to Trump?
Trump thinks VAT is a tariff.
As I pointed out - if you are an american exporter, not particular bright and you've never been outside the USA, it may well look like a tariff...
If tariffs are so awful why haven't other nations (And supranational blocks such as the EU) done away with them all ?
The US economy is based around consumption like nowhere else in the world, and it was till now iirc one of the lowest tariffed. Obviously that's gone but there's a distinct whiff of hypocrisy around the coverage imv.
Is thinking it twice as bad as it is worse than thinking it half as bad as it is?
Our economy is in the shit and the consequence seem likely to get worse due to this with impacts for years.
Better to overreact than fail to react perhsps.
If we had anything about us as a nation we'd be able to take advantage of the effective arbitrage the tariff difference between us and the EU offers.
So does Trump really think that tariffs will simultaneously bring in so much revenue that he can get rid of income tax plus also lead to imports being replaced by US manufacturing ?
If the imports are replaced where does the tariff revenue come from ?
The great new rustbelt manufacturing boom and the extra tax revenue
That extra tax revenue will be paid by US consumers alongside the higher prices.
You cannot get rich by producing low value added consumer tat.
Trump has
At the expense of others not by creating anything of value.
That might work very well for an individual but it doesn't work for a country.
It worked for China over the last few decades
China has sold the consumer tat it produces to richer countries.
Now which countries are going to buy consumer tat which has been made at American prices ?
Americans
So Americans will be paying higher prices.
That might help those Americans who might be employed at new consumer tat factories but they're going to far exceeded by those Americans who will lose out.
From time to time, I like to muse on what would be just, even knowing it is impossible.
So, here is my solution to the state visit: Assume the Loser is a nasty six year old boy, specifically Calvin of Calvin and Hobbes. (I didn't choose him randomly; I have found I can predict about 80 percent of what the Loser will do by asking what Calvin would do.)
So, Calvin visits the UK, and misbehaves. Your king, substituting for Calvin's absent parents, has Calvin spanked, and sent to bed without supper.
Does MAGA America understand that the whole world is laughing at them? They’ve just smashed a huge tax on themselves, with YOU BUY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF AMERICAN GOODS what they genuinely think we will be forced to do.
Piss funny.
As someone pointed out earlier, MAGA is in part about nostalgia for the 1950s, when the rest of the world kind of had to Buy American in many cases, becuase industry elsewhere was bombed-out or non-existent. The corollary is that America was bound to experience relative decline, as the rest of the world has caught up, and is continuing to do so.
It's understandable that peoples experiencing relative decline aren't happy about it. That doesn't mean that the MAGA solution (or the one in some forms of Brexitism) of turning it round by force of will has the slightest hope of working.
So does Trump really think that tariffs will simultaneously bring in so much revenue that he can get rid of income tax plus also lead to imports being replaced by US manufacturing ?
If the imports are replaced where does the tariff revenue come from ?
The great new rustbelt manufacturing boom and the extra tax revenue
That extra tax revenue will be paid by US consumers alongside the higher prices.
You cannot get rich by producing low value added consumer tat.
Trump has
At the expense of others not by creating anything of value.
That might work very well for an individual but it doesn't work for a country.
It worked for China over the last few decades
China has sold the consumer tat it produces to richer countries.
Now which countries are going to buy consumer tat which has been made at American prices ?
Americans
So Americans will be paying higher prices.
That might help those Americans who might be employed at new consumer tat factories but they're going to far exceeded by those Americans who will lose out.
Not if they buy American
America can't produce the goods cheaply enough. so they purchase goods manufactured abroad because the cost from purchasing them there + the shipping costs of getting them to the US is still less than purchasing the American made version.
Now it's perfectly possible that America can make a shirt at between 100% to 146% of the Vietnamese factory price but I suspect even at 146% it's not going to be that practical..
Chinese tech is largely derivative, the tech companies created by entrepreneurs are dominated by US tech firms.
Chinese tech is rapidly catching up, and the number of Chinese authors on papers rises year after year. Anyone who thinks they are just copying the US is as daft as the people who used to dismiss Japan or South Korea.
If you live in the US rustbelt where US industry has steeply declined and manufacturing jobs have steeply fallen while cheap imports, especially from China, have surged you also haven't seen much golden egg recently
Yeah but that's not what drives the US economy. Trump is giving the whole rest-of-the-world very good reason to find or develop alternatives to the most profitable bits of the US economy. But he seems to think that Autarky is the future so I guess the US will just have to learn the hard way why it isn't.
So does Trump really think that tariffs will simultaneously bring in so much revenue that he can get rid of income tax plus also lead to imports being replaced by US manufacturing ?
If the imports are replaced where does the tariff revenue come from ?
The great new rustbelt manufacturing boom and the extra tax revenue
That extra tax revenue will be paid by US consumers alongside the higher prices.
You cannot get rich by producing low value added consumer tat.
Trump has
At the expense of others not by creating anything of value.
That might work very well for an individual but it doesn't work for a country.
It worked for China over the last few decades
China has sold the consumer tat it produces to richer countries.
Now which countries are going to buy consumer tat which has been made at American prices ?
Americans
So Americans will be paying higher prices.
That might help those Americans who might be employed at new consumer tat factories but they're going to far exceeded by those Americans who will lose out.
Not if they buy American
After this the only people buying America will be Russia and North Korea.
I was told that people would want to vandalise my car because it’s Fascist. Now they might want to vandalise it because it’s American. Well, Chinese…
So does Trump really think that tariffs will simultaneously bring in so much revenue that he can get rid of income tax plus also lead to imports being replaced by US manufacturing ?
If the imports are replaced where does the tariff revenue come from ?
The great new rustbelt manufacturing boom and the extra tax revenue
That extra tax revenue will be paid by US consumers alongside the higher prices.
You cannot get rich by producing low value added consumer tat.
Trump has
At the expense of others not by creating anything of value.
That might work very well for an individual but it doesn't work for a country.
It worked for China over the last few decades
China has sold the consumer tat it produces to richer countries.
Now which countries are going to buy consumer tat which has been made at American prices ?
Americans
So Americans will be paying higher prices.
That might help those Americans who might be employed at new consumer tat factories but they're going to far exceeded by those Americans who will lose out.
Not if they buy American
Well as you seem to think that home produced consumer goods are the route to prosperity will you be only buying things made in this country in future ?
How does VD not wee herself laughing at this clown. He’s part of the US administration and he’s basically saying “toxins!” in response to basic questions
I don't think it really matters whether other countries apply any retaliatory tariffs as there are going to be consumer boycotts over much of the world against anything 'Made in the USA'.
Would that be in between us forcing school children to watch drama from USA-owned subscription platforms?
I don't think it really matters whether other countries apply any retaliatory tariffs as there are going to be consumer boycotts over much of the world against anything 'Made in the USA'.
Boycott US products and travel there
Lots of nicer places to visit in the world including Canada where our son and daughter in law live
I would be delighted to boycott US goods, and I will try, but in due course how do I replace my Apple ecosystem, Microsoft software and the Cloud? Happy to be schooled on this. In the meanwhile, I will avoid the US banking and credit card system, their subscription entertainment offerings and anything else that comes to mind.
Visa and Mastercard are American - love to know who you avoid them..
Good point, thanks. I will just have to use my Nat West Debit Card instead. It will be irritating, but no undue hardship.
It uses Mastercard !!!!
AAARRRGGGHHHH ! Is that so? Is everything in the banking system working on US architecture?
So does Trump really think that tariffs will simultaneously bring in so much revenue that he can get rid of income tax plus also lead to imports being replaced by US manufacturing ?
If the imports are replaced where does the tariff revenue come from ?
The great new rustbelt manufacturing boom and the extra tax revenue
That extra tax revenue will be paid by US consumers alongside the higher prices.
You cannot get rich by producing low value added consumer tat.
Trump has
At the expense of others not by creating anything of value.
That might work very well for an individual but it doesn't work for a country.
It worked for China over the last few decades
China has sold the consumer tat it produces to richer countries.
Now which countries are going to buy consumer tat which has been made at American prices ?
Americans
So Americans will be paying higher prices.
That might help those Americans who might be employed at new consumer tat factories but they're going to far exceeded by those Americans who will lose out.
Not if they buy American
Well as you seem to think that home produced consumer goods are the route to prosperity will you be only buying things made in this country in future ?
Of course I buy British where I can but it is now the US leading the way on tariffs on cheap imports, we will see if that experiment revives US industry and manufacturing or just leads to extra costs for US consumers
Tory MP for neighbouring seat to Runcorn & Helsby calls for Tories to stand back and allow Reform to win the seat.
"Tories should let Reform win Runcorn by-election, says Esther McVey Former Cabinet minister proposes that Conservatives should ‘stay out the way’ of a victory for Nigel Farage’s party" (£)
@TSE needs to put up this seminal video from Eighties classic "Ferris Beullers Day Off" explaining the effect of tariffs on the US economy to an attentive class of soon to be MAGA voters.
Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 9m I think there is a good chance that these tariffs are scaled back. They don’t go Into effect for a few days, and if the stock market crashes, which looks likely, I can see Trump backing down.
We’re at risk here of the world pulling together a notAmerica free trade zone and the UK not being part of it
This is an absurd fantasy. There isn't a NotAmerica free trade zone, and we're already part of the CPTPP and have a free trade zone with the EU.
Is it? South Korea, Japan and China agreed yesterday to have a single response to the US tariffs. A few agreements like that and it's not a long leap towards reduced tariffs between them for things where the no country has a competitive advantage.
Chinese tech is largely derivative, the tech companies created by entrepreneurs are dominated by US tech firms.
Chinese tech is rapidly catching up, and the number of Chinese authors on papers rises year after year. Anyone who thinks they are just copying the US is as daft as the people who used to dismiss Japan or South Korea.
If you live in the US rustbelt where US industry has steeply declined and manufacturing jobs have steeply fallen while cheap imports, especially from China, have surged you also haven't seen much golden egg recently
Yeah but that's not what drives the US economy. Trump is giving the whole rest-of-the-world very good reason to find or develop alternatives to the most profitable bits of the US economy. But he seems to think that Autarky is the future so I guess the US will just have to learn the hard way why it isn't.
If Chinese tech catches up that would happen with or without tariffs if Chinese tech expertise improves.
If more US consumers buy US made rather than formerly cheaper Chinese goods however that would be a direct result of these tariffs
I don't think it really matters whether other countries apply any retaliatory tariffs as there are going to be consumer boycotts over much of the world against anything 'Made in the USA'.
Oh it's much worse than that. There is a hell of lot of stuff that essentially the entire rest of the world now wants to be able to source from anywhere other than the US. China will be top dog in tech by the end of this decade. Trump doesn't realise it but he is about to kill the goose that laid the golden egg.
The medium and long-term effects of Trump will be worse than the short-term, and that will still be very bad.
Chinese tech is largely derivative, the tech companies created by entrepreneurs are dominated by US tech firms.
That was true ten years ago, much less true now, and won't be true in a decade's time.
Ironically, America's own sanctions have given China a strong incentive to onshore everything, probably giving a modest boost to their catchup, though it was happening anyway.
Biden and Trump have shot the US in both feet on this over the past decade.
If tariffs are so awful why haven't other nations (And supranational blocks such as the EU) done away with them all ?
The US economy is based around consumption like nowhere else in the world, and it was till now iirc one of the lowest tariffed. Obviously that's gone but there's a distinct whiff of hypocrisy around the coverage imv.
The policies just announced are batshit crazy. They will cause a recession. And, when they do, the people who backed them will blame foreigners or globalists or some such, and double down.
The problem of Musk: To be more serious, let me pose a question for all of you: What does Musk want, strategically?
The Loser is easy; just assume he is Putin's patsy. Musk, I think, sees China as -- sometimes -- a personal ally. What do all of you think?
My best guess is that Musk thought he could apply his genius to government and sort out its problems. It would literally be rocket science, exactly his bag. The Trump government was his opportunity to deliver without any constraint.
Tory MP for neighbouring seat to Runcorn & Helsby calls for Tories to stand back and allow Reform to win the seat.
"Tories should let Reform win Runcorn by-election, says Esther McVey Former Cabinet minister proposes that Conservatives should ‘stay out the way’ of a victory for Nigel Farage’s party" (£)
We’re at risk here of the world pulling together a notAmerica free trade zone and the UK not being part of it
This is an absurd fantasy. There isn't a NotAmerica free trade zone, and we're already part of the CPTPP and have a free trade zone with the EU.
1. An awful lot of people are talking about creating something new 2. CPTPP means what - that we can’t do anything else? Anyone told China and Japan? 3. We don’t have free trade with the EU. We have a long swathe of tariffs and longer swathes of paperwork even when the tariff rate is zero.
I know that this is a very tough time for you. Thoughts and prayers and all that
The policies just announced are batshit crazy. They will cause a recession. And, when they do, the people who backed them will blame foreigners or globalists or some such, and double down.
I think that's the first time Hannan has been right about anything but the consequences are going to be not very bright people blaming those reacting to the tariffs by passing on the price increases rather than the people who created the mess.
I don't think it really matters whether other countries apply any retaliatory tariffs as there are going to be consumer boycotts over much of the world against anything 'Made in the USA'.
Boycott US products and travel there
Lots of nicer places to visit in the world including Canada where our son and daughter in law live
I would be delighted to boycott US goods, and I will try, but in due course how do I replace my Apple ecosystem, Microsoft software and the Cloud? Happy to be schooled on this. In the meanwhile, I will avoid the US banking and credit card system, their subscription entertainment offerings and anything else that comes to mind.
Easy. Use Linux (started by a Finn, although the foundation is US-based, I think) with a non-US distrbution (loads, but Arch is Canadian; SuSE originally German, Swedish parent now) with KDE software (legal entity is a German non-profit). Simple
We’re at risk here of the world pulling together a notAmerica free trade zone and the UK not being part of it
This is an absurd fantasy. There isn't a NotAmerica free trade zone, and we're already part of the CPTPP and have a free trade zone with the EU.
1. An awful lot of people are talking about creating something new 2. CPTPP means what - that we can’t do anything else? Anyone told China and Japan? 3. We don’t have free trade with the EU. We have a long swathe of tariffs and longer swathes of paperwork even when the tariff rate is zero.
I know that this is a very tough time for you. Thoughts and prayers and all that
Think through the implications of your third point. We have a comprehensive zero-tariff and zero-quota TCA with the EU that goes beyond most free trade agreements in existence globally, but now you imagine that the rest of the world will somehow suddenly agree to go well beyond that and exclude us? It's detached from reality.
Gorka has just said that we can lose the 10% tariff if 20% VAT is unilaterally removed from US goods. What the actual f***?
Gorka really is more obnoxious than Trump.
It's just a demonstration that a thick American who has never looked at a receipt in the UK doesn't know how VAT really works.
Gorka was educated in an Ealing state school. More power to HYUFD's elbow. Perhaps HY was right all along.
Nope he was educated in a Catholic Independent (i.e. parents paying) school because he wasn't bright enough to pass the 12 plus which would have got him into a Grammar school in Bucks / Berks.
If tariffs are so awful why haven't other nations (And supranational blocks such as the EU) done away with them all ?
Because economic theory allows for tariffs in certain limited circumstances. When you are protecting infant industries (which America's aren't), when there are industries crucial to non-economic purposes like national security (which these general tariffs don't pretend to protect), there is some argument for them.
Also, politically, powerful lobby groups like farmers and carmakers that benefit hugely from them can influence cowardly or ignorant politicians.
I don't think it really matters whether other countries apply any retaliatory tariffs as there are going to be consumer boycotts over much of the world against anything 'Made in the USA'.
Oh it's much worse than that. There is a hell of lot of stuff that essentially the entire rest of the world now wants to be able to source from anywhere other than the US. China will be top dog in tech by the end of this decade. Trump doesn't realise it but he is about to kill the goose that laid the golden egg.
The medium and long-term effects of Trump will be worse than the short-term, and that will still be very bad.
Chinese tech is largely derivative, the tech companies created by entrepreneurs are dominated by US tech firms.
If you live in the US rustbelt where US industry has steeply declined and manufacturing jobs have steeply fallen while cheap imports, especially from China, have surged you also haven't seen much golden egg recently
"Chinese tech is largely derivative"
Might have been true. But is no longer.
Long piece by Friedman in NY Times on this today:
"I’d never seen anything like this Huawei campus. Built in just over three years, it consists of 104 individually designed buildings, with manicured lawns, connected by a Disney-like monorail, housing labs for up to 35,000 scientists, engineers and other workers, offering 100 cafes, plus fitness centers and other perks designed to attract the best Chinese and foreign technologists."
Chinese tech is largely derivative, the tech companies created by entrepreneurs are dominated by US tech firms.
That was true ten years ago, much less true now, and won't be true in a decade's time.
Ironically, America's own sanctions have given China a strong incentive to onshore everything, probably giving a modest boost to their catchup, though it was happening anyway.
Biden and Trump have shot the US in both feet on this over the past decade.
Absolutely, the number of sectors where China either leads or is close to leading are numerous and increasing rapidly.
The big advantage the US has is in high-end semiconductors, but Trump is doing his level best to wreck that and China is pouring money into semiconductor design and fabrication. Even without Trump's madness the US' lead will probably be gone in 10 years.
If tariffs are so awful why haven't other nations (And supranational blocks such as the EU) done away with them all ?
Because economic theory allows for tariffs in certain limited circumstances. When you are protecting infant industries (which America's aren't), when there are industries crucial to non-economic purposes like national security (which these general tariffs don't pretend to protect) and when there are increasing returns to scale (ditto), there is some argument for them.
Also, politically, powerful lobby groups like farmers and carmakers that benefit hugely from them can influence cowardly or ignorant politicians.
Apart from Tesla I would love to know which American car maker doesn't have factories across North America and ships parts almost randomly from Canada/Mexico to the US and vice versa multiple times in the building of the car (and parts of the car).
Comments
Malvinas here we come?
I am in the correct party.
Starmer risks undermining his strong position on Ukraine by sucking up to Trump on this.
We only got three strokes of the cane instead of six of the best.*
* Oh f*** it! Let's retaliate anyway.
Let's us hope.
Piss funny.
That might help those Americans who might be employed at new consumer tat factories but they're going to far exceeded by those Americans who will lose out.
The US economy is based around consumption like nowhere else in the world, and it was till now iirc one of the lowest tariffed. Obviously that's gone but there's a distinct whiff of hypocrisy around the coverage imv.
* She would be an embarrassment to her father were he still alive
So it will be again. Theyve already started seeing allies as enemies, reacting to him (and it needs reacting to) will just solidify that to them.
Decades of friendship destroyed . For Trump.
The medium and long-term effects of Trump will be worse than the short-term, and that will still be very bad.
Quite ... OTT.
(Deep link to the Bulwark podcast, couple of minutes)
https://youtu.be/xk6yKgOKbhU?t=68
Our economy is in the shit and the consequence seem likely to get worse due to this with impacts for years.
Better to overreact than fail to react perhsps.
Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social
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27m
A third of Vietnam's economic output is exported to the US. This utterly destroys their economy.
I suspect the world will but not in the way Trump thinks it will
If they actually happen.
A little overegged ! He's also a little confused, afaics.
(Deep link to Bulwark podcast. About one minute)
https://youtu.be/xk6yKgOKbhU?t=68
Perhaps the best way really is consumers boycotting US products and services where possible.
Nonetheless Chas needs to rescind the invite to Balmoral.
If you live in the US rustbelt where US industry has steeply declined and manufacturing jobs have steeply fallen while cheap imports, especially from China, have surged you also haven't seen much golden egg recently
The end consumer pays VAT on the final product regardless of where it comes from: How is VAT a non-tariff barrier?
So, here is my solution to the state visit: Assume the Loser is a nasty six year old boy, specifically Calvin of Calvin and Hobbes. (I didn't choose him randomly; I have found I can predict about 80 percent of what the Loser will do by asking what Calvin would do.)
So, Calvin visits the UK, and misbehaves. Your king, substituting for Calvin's absent parents, has Calvin spanked, and sent to bed without supper.
It's understandable that peoples experiencing relative decline aren't happy about it. That doesn't mean that the MAGA solution (or the one in some forms of Brexitism) of turning it round by force of will has the slightest hope of working.
Now it's perfectly possible that America can make a shirt at between 100% to 146% of the Vietnamese factory price but I suspect even at 146% it's not going to be that practical..
I was told that people would want to vandalise my car because it’s Fascist. Now they might want to vandalise it because it’s American. Well, Chinese…
The Loser is easy; just assume he is Putin's patsy. Musk, I think, sees China as -- sometimes -- a personal ally. What do all of you think?
Gorka really is more obnoxious than Trump.
Meanwhile, the US stock market has lost over $2 trillion in the last 20 minutes.
https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1907540913431183666
Firstly, it would be awful if the Tory candidate split the Reform candidate's vote and let Labour back in.
Secondly and more realistically, the Tories are going to get soundly drubbed, so they may as well pretend they never wanted to win.
https://youtu.be/Yk3-Vb7CH-o?feature=shared
Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social
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9m
I think there is a good chance that these tariffs are scaled back. They don’t go
Into effect for a few days, and if the stock market crashes, which looks likely, I can see Trump backing down.
Otherwise it is a global depression.
If more US consumers buy US made rather than formerly cheaper Chinese goods however that would be a direct result of these tariffs
Ironically, America's own sanctions have given China a strong incentive to onshore everything, probably giving a modest boost to their catchup, though it was happening anyway.
Biden and Trump have shot the US in both feet on this over the past decade.
"Tariffs imposed by European Union in 2022 are below
The simple average tariff across all products was 1.97 percent.
The trade weighted average tariff was 1.34 ."
https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/GBR/Year/LTST/Summarytext
"Tariffs imposed by United Kingdom in 2022 are below
The simple average tariff across all products was 1.15 percent.
The trade weighted average tariff was 1.02 ."
https://x.com/danieljhannan/status/1907537737936196049
The policies just announced are batshit crazy. They will cause a recession. And, when they do, the people who backed them will blame foreigners or globalists or some such, and double down.
Disappointed in Derbyshire that she didn't tell Gorka to f*** off, for his unbearable rudeness.
2. CPTPP means what - that we can’t do anything else? Anyone told China and Japan?
3. We don’t have free trade with the EU. We have a long swathe of tariffs and longer swathes of paperwork even when the tariff rate is zero.
I know that this is a very tough time for you. Thoughts and prayers and all that
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St_Benedict's_School,_Ealing is the school for reference...
Also, politically, powerful lobby groups like farmers and carmakers that benefit hugely from them can influence cowardly or ignorant politicians.
That last point is usually key.
Might have been true. But is no longer.
Long piece by Friedman in NY Times on this today:
"I’d never seen anything like this Huawei campus. Built in just over three years, it consists of 104 individually designed buildings, with manicured lawns, connected by a Disney-like monorail, housing labs for up to 35,000 scientists, engineers and other workers, offering 100 cafes, plus fitness centers and other perks designed to attract the best Chinese and foreign technologists."
I Just Saw the Future. It Was Not in America.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/02/opinion/trump-tariffs-china.html
The big advantage the US has is in high-end semiconductors, but Trump is doing his level best to wreck that and China is pouring money into semiconductor design and fabrication. Even without Trump's madness the US' lead will probably be gone in 10 years.