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Liberation day is going well – politicalbetting.com

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  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,660

    I take it all the PBers who want a trade war have already done their bit by starting a personal consumer boycott ?

    So no more talking about a certain Netflix drama ?

    None of us want a trade war. But a trade war is what we have…
    [putting hands up] "Please! I like America!"
    Betty Grable! What a Dish!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,934
    Ratters said:

    Look, I know it doesn't look like it tonight - but these tariffs announcements are good news in the long-run. Good for the US and for the world.

    Why? Because Trump is setting fire to the US economy. This will significantly weaken him politically and hamper his ability to irrevocably undermine democracy and the rule of law in America.

    His economic policy is so batshit insane - positively Truss-ian - that it will weaken him in the medium-term. The institutions of the US are more important to us than the impact of (relatively) short-term tariffs.

    I'm not sure you have the Truss correlation right. Fox News will blame Biden and Red Neck America will believe them.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,813
    I see the Falkland Islands have been hit by a 41% tariff; Argentina only 10%.

    Malvinas here we come?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,602
    Nigelb said:

    The Japanese ambassador is good value.

    Enjoying pub🍺😄!!!
    https://x.com/AmbJapanUK/status/1906105644169544102

    That pub serves very good Thai food
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,410
    Pulpstar said:

    Is the left hand side of Trump's chart (Tariffs on the USA) a lie ?

    Possibly they decided what tariffs they wanted to impose and then worked backwards.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,301

    The weird thing is that America trashed every single one of its relationships around the world for what - China to benefit? Does any else really want American cars?

    China and Russia cannot believe their fortune. America is happily, proudly, aggravating all their allies, treating thrm like shit, and there's no sign they will pull back. If anything it will get worse as Trump lashes out if challenged.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,267
    Yes.

    Starmer risks undermining his strong position on Ukraine by sucking up to Trump on this.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,301

    Ratters said:

    Look, I know it doesn't look like it tonight - but these tariffs announcements are good news in the long-run. Good for the US and for the world.

    Why? Because Trump is setting fire to the US economy. This will significantly weaken him politically and hamper his ability to irrevocably undermine democracy and the rule of law in America.

    His economic policy is so batshit insane - positively Truss-ian - that it will weaken him in the medium-term. The institutions of the US are more important to us than the impact of (relatively) short-term tariffs.

    I'm not sure you have the Truss correlation right. Fox News will blame Biden and Red Neck America will believe them.
    It's the fault of internal enemies no doubt. The institutions have already failed when Senators capitulate on cabinet appointees who are blatantly unqualified and the Supreme Court is openly on the side of corruption and unfettered presidential power.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,538

    Nigelb said:

    The Japanese ambassador is good value.

    Enjoying pub🍺😄!!!
    https://x.com/AmbJapanUK/status/1906105644169544102

    That pub serves very good Thai food
    I used to visit when I worked on Notting Hill Gate 30 years ago. Still serves a good pint of Fullers, still serves good Thai food.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,934
    Is Ed right?

    We only got three strokes of the cane instead of six of the best.*

    * Oh f*** it! Let's retaliate anyway.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,975
    Magalomaniacs R US
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,092
    Ratters said:

    Look, I know it doesn't look like it tonight - but these tariffs announcements are good news in the long-run. Good for the US and for the world.

    Why? Because Trump is setting fire to the US economy. This will significantly weaken him politically and hamper his ability to irrevocably undermine democracy and the rule of law in America.

    His economic policy is so batshit insane - positively Truss-ian - that it will weaken him in the medium-term. The institutions of the US are more important to us than the impact of (relatively) short-term tariffs.

    I like your thinking.

    Let's us hope.

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,660
    Does MAGA America understand that the whole world is laughing at them? They’ve just smashed a huge tax on themselves, with YOU BUY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF AMERICAN GOODS what they genuinely think we will be forced to do.

    Piss funny.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,410
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So does Trump really think that tariffs will simultaneously bring in so much revenue that he can get rid of income tax plus also lead to imports being replaced by US manufacturing ?

    If the imports are replaced where does the tariff revenue come from ?

    The great new rustbelt manufacturing boom and the extra tax revenue
    That extra tax revenue will be paid by US consumers alongside the higher prices.

    You cannot get rich by producing low value added consumer tat.
    Trump has
    At the expense of others not by creating anything of value.

    That might work very well for an individual but it doesn't work for a country.
    It worked for China over the last few decades
    China has sold the consumer tat it produces to richer countries.

    Now which countries are going to buy consumer tat which has been made at American prices ?
    Americans
    So Americans will be paying higher prices.

    That might help those Americans who might be employed at new consumer tat factories but they're going to far exceeded by those Americans who will lose out.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,540

    Is Ed right?

    We only got three strokes of the cane instead of six of the best.*

    * Oh f*** it! Let's retaliate anyway.
    But he said "coalition of the willing". That's dead incisive and not at all content-free. Seriously, that whole statement is vague, anodyne pabulum.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,092

    eek said:

    I don't think it really matters whether other countries apply any retaliatory tariffs as there are going to be consumer boycotts over much of the world against anything 'Made in the USA'.

    Boycott US products and travel there

    Lots of nicer places to visit in the world including Canada where our son and daughter in law live
    I would be delighted to boycott US goods, and I will try, but in due course how do I replace my Apple ecosystem, Microsoft software and the Cloud? Happy to be schooled on this. In the meanwhile, I will avoid the US banking and credit card system, their subscription entertainment offerings and anything else that comes to mind.
    Visa and Mastercard are American - love to know who you avoid them..
    Good point, thanks. I will just have to use my Nat West Debit Card instead. It will be irritating, but no undue hardship.
    It uses Mastercard !!!!
    AAARRRGGGHHHH ! Is that so? Is everything in the banking system working on US architecture?
    There’s always Monzo.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,084
    If tariffs are so awful why haven't other nations (And supranational blocks such as the EU) done away with them all ?

    The US economy is based around consumption like nowhere else in the world, and it was till now iirc one of the lowest tariffed. Obviously that's gone but there's a distinct whiff of hypocrisy around the coverage imv.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,092
    China tariff will be 54% apparently.

  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,540

    Does MAGA America understand that the whole world is laughing at them? They’ve just smashed a huge tax on themselves, with YOU BUY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF AMERICAN GOODS what they genuinely think we will be forced to do.

    Piss funny.

    Wouldn't Davy's plan for retaliation be slapping a huge tax on us?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,692
    Pulpstar said:

    Is the left hand side of Trump's chart (Tariffs on the USA) a lie ?

    Yes, it’s a lie. A long list of lies. Average trade weighted EU tariff rate on imports is….1.34%
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,934
    edited April 2
    Has BBC Ten o'clock news sanewashed the madness? I bet Sarah Smith* like HYUFD and William Glenn can see the way through the haze.

    * She would be an embarrassment to her father were he still alive
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,301
    edited April 2

    Does MAGA America understand that the whole world is laughing at them? They’ve just smashed a huge tax on themselves, with YOU BUY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF AMERICAN GOODS what they genuinely think we will be forced to do.

    Piss funny.

    They knew the world laughed at Trump before. It didnt cause them to question him, but to want him to be more aggressive and show off their power.

    So it will be again. Theyve already started seeing allies as enemies, reacting to him (and it needs reacting to) will just solidify that to them.

    Decades of friendship destroyed . For Trump.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,092
    Apple down now 6.25%
  • glwglw Posts: 10,306

    I don't think it really matters whether other countries apply any retaliatory tariffs as there are going to be consumer boycotts over much of the world against anything 'Made in the USA'.

    Oh it's much worse than that. There is a hell of lot of stuff that essentially the entire rest of the world now wants to be able to source from anywhere other than the US. China will be top dog in tech by the end of this decade. Trump doesn't realise it but he is about to kill the goose that laid the golden egg.

    The medium and long-term effects of Trump will be worse than the short-term, and that will still be very bad.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,692

    Has BBC Ten o'clock news sanewashed the madness? I bet Sarah Smith* like HYUFD and William Glenn can see the way through the haze.

    * She would be an embarrassment to her father were he still alive

    Sky certainly. Infuriating. They’re just taking Trump’s assertions on foreign tariff rates as read. But they’re lies.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,092
    Thoughts and prayers for Walmart.

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,813
    Pulpstar said:

    Is the left hand side of Trump's chart (Tariffs on the USA) a lie ?

    Unless you think import costs into Brazil and Egypt are one quarter of those into the European Union, those numbers are made up.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,027
    carnforth said:

    eek said:

    I don't think it really matters whether other countries apply any retaliatory tariffs as there are going to be consumer boycotts over much of the world against anything 'Made in the USA'.

    Boycott US products and travel there

    Lots of nicer places to visit in the world including Canada where our son and daughter in law live
    I would be delighted to boycott US goods, and I will try, but in due course how do I replace my Apple ecosystem, Microsoft software and the Cloud? Happy to be schooled on this. In the meanwhile, I will avoid the US banking and credit card system, their subscription entertainment offerings and anything else that comes to mind.
    Visa and Mastercard are American - love to know who you avoid them..
    Good point, thanks. I will just have to use my Nat West Debit Card instead. It will be irritating, but no undue hardship.
    It uses Mastercard !!!!
    AAARRRGGGHHHH ! Is that so? Is everything in the banking system working on US architecture?
    We used to have indigeonous ones - Switch and Maestro. But not for a while.
    Great opportunity for someone to start up a competitor to Visa/Mastercard. I reckon enough people would switch on principle, I would.
  • AugustusCarp2AugustusCarp2 Posts: 285
    sarissa said:

    eek said:

    I don't think it really matters whether other countries apply any retaliatory tariffs as there are going to be consumer boycotts over much of the world against anything 'Made in the USA'.

    Boycott US products and travel there

    Lots of nicer places to visit in the world including Canada where our son and daughter in law live
    I would be delighted to boycott US goods, and I will try, but in due course how do I replace my Apple ecosystem, Microsoft software and the Cloud? Happy to be schooled on this. In the meanwhile, I will avoid the US banking and credit card system, their subscription entertainment offerings and anything else that comes to mind.
    Visa and Mastercard are American - love to know who you avoid them..
    Good point, thanks. I will just have to use my Nat West Debit Card instead. It will be irritating, but no undue hardship.
    It uses Mastercard !!!!
    AAARRRGGGHHHH ! Is that so? Is everything in the banking system working on US architecture?
    There’s always Monzo.
    Thaank you! I will look into it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,084
    TimS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Is the left hand side of Trump's chart (Tariffs on the USA) a lie ?

    Yes, it’s a lie. A long list of lies. Average trade weighted EU tariff rate on imports is….1.34%
    Intra-EU triangulation is a big bonus to companies registered for VAT within the EU, and effectively a non tariff barrier outside it.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,195
    Elon Musk electioneering in the Wisconsin Supreme Court Election, declaring that they must get out to vote because that particular election will help determine the future of humanity.

    Quite ... OTT.

    (Deep link to the Bulwark podcast, couple of minutes)

    https://youtu.be/xk6yKgOKbhU?t=68
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,660
    carnforth said:

    Does MAGA America understand that the whole world is laughing at them? They’ve just smashed a huge tax on themselves, with YOU BUY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF AMERICAN GOODS what they genuinely think we will be forced to do.

    Piss funny.

    Wouldn't Davy's plan for retaliation be slapping a huge tax on us?
    No. We do a free trade deal with notAmerica. No tariffs. Just don’t buy TENS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF AMERICAN GOODS.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,301
    edited April 2
    Pulpstar said:

    If tariffs are so awful why haven't other nations (And supranational blocks such as the EU) done away with them all ?

    The US economy is based around consumption like nowhere else in the world, and it was till now iirc one of the lowest tariffed. Obviously that's gone but there's a distinct whiff of hypocrisy around the coverage imv.

    Is thinking it twice as bad as it is worse than thinking it half as bad as it is?

    Our economy is in the shit and the consequence seem likely to get worse due to this with impacts for years.

    Better to overreact than fail to react perhsps.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,092

    ‪Sam Freedman‬ ‪@samfr.bsky.social‬
    ·
    27m
    A third of Vietnam's economic output is exported to the US. This utterly destroys their economy.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,660
    TimS said:

    Has BBC Ten o'clock news sanewashed the madness? I bet Sarah Smith* like HYUFD and William Glenn can see the way through the haze.

    * She would be an embarrassment to her father were he still alive

    Sky certainly. Infuriating. They’re just taking Trump’s assertions on foreign tariff rates as read. But they’re lies.
    VD is presenting Newsnight. She takes no prisoners
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,301


    ‪Sam Freedman‬ ‪@samfr.bsky.social‬
    ·
    27m
    A third of Vietnam's economic output is exported to the US. This utterly destroys their economy.

    Trump: That means we win, right?
  • eekeek Posts: 29,534
    'A day you're going to look back on in years to come' - Trump

    I suspect the world will but not in the way Trump thinks it will
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,092
    The midterms are gonna be a GOP blood bath.

    If they actually happen.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,482

    carnforth said:

    Does MAGA America understand that the whole world is laughing at them? They’ve just smashed a huge tax on themselves, with YOU BUY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF AMERICAN GOODS what they genuinely think we will be forced to do.

    Piss funny.

    Wouldn't Davy's plan for retaliation be slapping a huge tax on us?
    No. We do a free trade deal with notAmerica. No tariffs. Just don’t buy TENS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF AMERICAN GOODS.
    If NotAmerica is so against tariffs, why do they exist in order for it to be necessary to eliminate them in response to Trump?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,127


    ‪Sam Freedman‬ ‪@samfr.bsky.social‬
    ·
    27m
    A third of Vietnam's economic output is exported to the US. This utterly destroys their economy.

    Revenge at last.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,092
    edited April 2
    There's no a 10% tariff on an uninhabited island apparently.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,660

    carnforth said:

    Does MAGA America understand that the whole world is laughing at them? They’ve just smashed a huge tax on themselves, with YOU BUY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF AMERICAN GOODS what they genuinely think we will be forced to do.

    Piss funny.

    Wouldn't Davy's plan for retaliation be slapping a huge tax on us?
    No. We do a free trade deal with notAmerica. No tariffs. Just don’t buy TENS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF AMERICAN GOODS.
    If NotAmerica is so against tariffs, why do they exist in order for it to be necessary to eliminate them in response to Trump?
    Trump thinks VAT is a tariff.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,195
    edited April 2
    Elon Musk talking about how the election of a Judge in Wisconsin is going to impact the future of humanity.

    A little overegged ! He's also a little confused, afaics.

    (Deep link to Bulwark podcast. About one minute)

    https://youtu.be/xk6yKgOKbhU?t=68
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,934
    carnforth said:

    Does MAGA America understand that the whole world is laughing at them? They’ve just smashed a huge tax on themselves, with YOU BUY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF AMERICAN GOODS what they genuinely think we will be forced to do.

    Piss funny.

    Wouldn't Davy's plan for retaliation be slapping a huge tax on us?
    Netflix, Disney plus, Discovery, Amazon Prime, Paramount plus, Apple TV all up by 10%> Shopping at Amazon and on eBay up by 10% Financial services using US payments platforms up be 10%.

    Perhaps the best way really is consumers boycotting US products and services where possible.

    Nonetheless Chas needs to rescind the invite to Balmoral.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534
    edited April 2
    glw said:

    I don't think it really matters whether other countries apply any retaliatory tariffs as there are going to be consumer boycotts over much of the world against anything 'Made in the USA'.

    Oh it's much worse than that. There is a hell of lot of stuff that essentially the entire rest of the world now wants to be able to source from anywhere other than the US. China will be top dog in tech by the end of this decade. Trump doesn't realise it but he is about to kill the goose that laid the golden egg.

    The medium and long-term effects of Trump will be worse than the short-term, and that will still be very bad.
    Chinese tech is largely derivative, the tech companies created by entrepreneurs are dominated by US tech firms.

    If you live in the US rustbelt where US industry has steeply declined and manufacturing jobs have steeply fallen while cheap imports, especially from China, have surged you also haven't seen much golden egg recently
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,534
    Pulpstar said:

    TimS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Is the left hand side of Trump's chart (Tariffs on the USA) a lie ?

    Yes, it’s a lie. A long list of lies. Average trade weighted EU tariff rate on imports is….1.34%
    Intra-EU triangulation is a big bonus to companies registered for VAT within the EU, and effectively a non tariff barrier outside it.
    ?

    The end consumer pays VAT on the final product regardless of where it comes from: How is VAT a non-tariff barrier?
  • eekeek Posts: 29,534

    carnforth said:

    Does MAGA America understand that the whole world is laughing at them? They’ve just smashed a huge tax on themselves, with YOU BUY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF AMERICAN GOODS what they genuinely think we will be forced to do.

    Piss funny.

    Wouldn't Davy's plan for retaliation be slapping a huge tax on us?
    No. We do a free trade deal with notAmerica. No tariffs. Just don’t buy TENS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF AMERICAN GOODS.
    If NotAmerica is so against tariffs, why do they exist in order for it to be necessary to eliminate them in response to Trump?
    Trump thinks VAT is a tariff.
    As I pointed out - if you are an american exporter, not particular bright and you've never been outside the USA, it may well look like a tariff...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,084
    edited April 2
    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If tariffs are so awful why haven't other nations (And supranational blocks such as the EU) done away with them all ?

    The US economy is based around consumption like nowhere else in the world, and it was till now iirc one of the lowest tariffed. Obviously that's gone but there's a distinct whiff of hypocrisy around the coverage imv.

    Is thinking it twice as bad as it is worse than thinking it half as bad as it is?

    Our economy is in the shit and the consequence seem likely to get worse due to this with impacts for years.

    Better to overreact than fail to react perhsps.
    If we had anything about us as a nation we'd be able to take advantage of the effective arbitrage the tariff difference between us and the EU offers.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So does Trump really think that tariffs will simultaneously bring in so much revenue that he can get rid of income tax plus also lead to imports being replaced by US manufacturing ?

    If the imports are replaced where does the tariff revenue come from ?

    The great new rustbelt manufacturing boom and the extra tax revenue
    That extra tax revenue will be paid by US consumers alongside the higher prices.

    You cannot get rich by producing low value added consumer tat.
    Trump has
    At the expense of others not by creating anything of value.

    That might work very well for an individual but it doesn't work for a country.
    It worked for China over the last few decades
    China has sold the consumer tat it produces to richer countries.

    Now which countries are going to buy consumer tat which has been made at American prices ?
    Americans
    So Americans will be paying higher prices.

    That might help those Americans who might be employed at new consumer tat factories but they're going to far exceeded by those Americans who will lose out.
    Not if they buy American
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,934
    Watching Newsnight. Trump is a rambling wanker.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,973


    ‪Sam Freedman‬ ‪@samfr.bsky.social‬
    ·
    27m
    A third of Vietnam's economic output is exported to the US. This utterly destroys their economy.

    Quite a lot of high-quality outdoor gear is made in Vietnam. Great reputation relative to Chinese factories.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,226
    From time to time, I like to muse on what would be just, even knowing it is impossible.

    So, here is my solution to the state visit: Assume the Loser is a nasty six year old boy, specifically Calvin of Calvin and Hobbes. (I didn't choose him randomly; I have found I can predict about 80 percent of what the Loser will do by asking what Calvin would do.)

    So, Calvin visits the UK, and misbehaves. Your king, substituting for Calvin's absent parents, has Calvin spanked, and sent to bed without supper.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,171

    Does MAGA America understand that the whole world is laughing at them? They’ve just smashed a huge tax on themselves, with YOU BUY BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF AMERICAN GOODS what they genuinely think we will be forced to do.

    Piss funny.

    As someone pointed out earlier, MAGA is in part about nostalgia for the 1950s, when the rest of the world kind of had to Buy American in many cases, becuase industry elsewhere was bombed-out or non-existent. The corollary is that America was bound to experience relative decline, as the rest of the world has caught up, and is continuing to do so.

    It's understandable that peoples experiencing relative decline aren't happy about it. That doesn't mean that the MAGA solution (or the one in some forms of Brexitism) of turning it round by force of will has the slightest hope of working.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534
    FF43 said:

    I see the Falkland Islands have been hit by a 41% tariff; Argentina only 10%.

    Malvinas here we come?

    Hardly, they are a British overseas territory and UK also got only 10%
  • eekeek Posts: 29,534
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So does Trump really think that tariffs will simultaneously bring in so much revenue that he can get rid of income tax plus also lead to imports being replaced by US manufacturing ?

    If the imports are replaced where does the tariff revenue come from ?

    The great new rustbelt manufacturing boom and the extra tax revenue
    That extra tax revenue will be paid by US consumers alongside the higher prices.

    You cannot get rich by producing low value added consumer tat.
    Trump has
    At the expense of others not by creating anything of value.

    That might work very well for an individual but it doesn't work for a country.
    It worked for China over the last few decades
    China has sold the consumer tat it produces to richer countries.

    Now which countries are going to buy consumer tat which has been made at American prices ?
    Americans
    So Americans will be paying higher prices.

    That might help those Americans who might be employed at new consumer tat factories but they're going to far exceeded by those Americans who will lose out.
    Not if they buy American
    America can't produce the goods cheaply enough. so they purchase goods manufactured abroad because the cost from purchasing them there + the shipping costs of getting them to the US is still less than purchasing the American made version.

    Now it's perfectly possible that America can make a shirt at between 100% to 146% of the Vietnamese factory price but I suspect even at 146% it's not going to be that practical..
  • glwglw Posts: 10,306
    HYUFD said:

    Chinese tech is largely derivative, the tech companies created by entrepreneurs are dominated by US tech firms.

    Chinese tech is rapidly catching up, and the number of Chinese authors on papers rises year after year. Anyone who thinks they are just copying the US is as daft as the people who used to dismiss Japan or South Korea.
    HYUFD said:

    If you live in the US rustbelt where US industry has steeply declined and manufacturing jobs have steeply fallen while cheap imports, especially from China, have surged you also haven't seen much golden egg recently

    Yeah but that's not what drives the US economy. Trump is giving the whole rest-of-the-world very good reason to find or develop alternatives to the most profitable bits of the US economy. But he seems to think that Autarky is the future so I guess the US will just have to learn the hard way why it isn't.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,660
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So does Trump really think that tariffs will simultaneously bring in so much revenue that he can get rid of income tax plus also lead to imports being replaced by US manufacturing ?

    If the imports are replaced where does the tariff revenue come from ?

    The great new rustbelt manufacturing boom and the extra tax revenue
    That extra tax revenue will be paid by US consumers alongside the higher prices.

    You cannot get rich by producing low value added consumer tat.
    Trump has
    At the expense of others not by creating anything of value.

    That might work very well for an individual but it doesn't work for a country.
    It worked for China over the last few decades
    China has sold the consumer tat it produces to richer countries.

    Now which countries are going to buy consumer tat which has been made at American prices ?
    Americans
    So Americans will be paying higher prices.

    That might help those Americans who might be employed at new consumer tat factories but they're going to far exceeded by those Americans who will lose out.
    Not if they buy American
    After this the only people buying America will be Russia and North Korea.

    I was told that people would want to vandalise my car because it’s Fascist. Now they might want to vandalise it because it’s American. Well, Chinese…
  • AugustusCarp2AugustusCarp2 Posts: 285
    Does anyone know what the tarriff rate for Greenland is?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,934
    F*** me. Newsnight's US expert is Sebastian Gorka. What the actual f***?
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,226
    The problem of Musk: To be more serious, let me pose a question for all of you: What does Musk want, strategically?

    The Loser is easy; just assume he is Putin's patsy. Musk, I think, sees China as -- sometimes -- a personal ally. What do all of you think?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,660
    We’re at risk here of the world pulling together a notAmerica free trade zone and the UK not being part of it
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,934
    edited April 2
    Gorka has just said that we can lose the 10% tariff if 20% VAT is unilaterally removed from US goods. What the actual f***?

    Gorka really is more obnoxious than Trump.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,410
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So does Trump really think that tariffs will simultaneously bring in so much revenue that he can get rid of income tax plus also lead to imports being replaced by US manufacturing ?

    If the imports are replaced where does the tariff revenue come from ?

    The great new rustbelt manufacturing boom and the extra tax revenue
    That extra tax revenue will be paid by US consumers alongside the higher prices.

    You cannot get rich by producing low value added consumer tat.
    Trump has
    At the expense of others not by creating anything of value.

    That might work very well for an individual but it doesn't work for a country.
    It worked for China over the last few decades
    China has sold the consumer tat it produces to richer countries.

    Now which countries are going to buy consumer tat which has been made at American prices ?
    Americans
    So Americans will be paying higher prices.

    That might help those Americans who might be employed at new consumer tat factories but they're going to far exceeded by those Americans who will lose out.
    Not if they buy American
    Well as you seem to think that home produced consumer goods are the route to prosperity will you be only buying things made in this country in future ?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,660
    How does VD not wee herself laughing at this clown. He’s part of the US administration and he’s basically saying “toxins!” in response to basic questions
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,943

    F*** me. Newsnight's US expert is Sebastian Gorka. What the actual f***?

    He really is an odious individual.
  • AugustusCarp2AugustusCarp2 Posts: 285
    Well, I never thought I would be sympathetic to Victoria Derbyshire.....
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,477

    I don't think it really matters whether other countries apply any retaliatory tariffs as there are going to be consumer boycotts over much of the world against anything 'Made in the USA'.

    Would that be in between us forcing school children to watch drama from USA-owned subscription platforms?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,477

    eek said:

    I don't think it really matters whether other countries apply any retaliatory tariffs as there are going to be consumer boycotts over much of the world against anything 'Made in the USA'.

    Boycott US products and travel there

    Lots of nicer places to visit in the world including Canada where our son and daughter in law live
    I would be delighted to boycott US goods, and I will try, but in due course how do I replace my Apple ecosystem, Microsoft software and the Cloud? Happy to be schooled on this. In the meanwhile, I will avoid the US banking and credit card system, their subscription entertainment offerings and anything else that comes to mind.
    Visa and Mastercard are American - love to know who you avoid them..
    Good point, thanks. I will just have to use my Nat West Debit Card instead. It will be irritating, but no undue hardship.
    It uses Mastercard !!!!
    AAARRRGGGHHHH ! Is that so? Is everything in the banking system working
    on US architecture?
    CHAPS, BACS and FP are UK
    And CASH.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,547
    @jurgen_nauditt

    Meanwhile, the US stock market has lost over $2 trillion in the last 20 minutes.

    https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1907540913431183666
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,482

    We’re at risk here of the world pulling together a notAmerica free trade zone and the UK not being part of it

    This is an absurd fantasy. There isn't a NotAmerica free trade zone, and we're already part of the CPTPP and have a free trade zone with the EU.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So does Trump really think that tariffs will simultaneously bring in so much revenue that he can get rid of income tax plus also lead to imports being replaced by US manufacturing ?

    If the imports are replaced where does the tariff revenue come from ?

    The great new rustbelt manufacturing boom and the extra tax revenue
    That extra tax revenue will be paid by US consumers alongside the higher prices.

    You cannot get rich by producing low value added consumer tat.
    Trump has
    At the expense of others not by creating anything of value.

    That might work very well for an individual but it doesn't work for a country.
    It worked for China over the last few decades
    China has sold the consumer tat it produces to richer countries.

    Now which countries are going to buy consumer tat which has been made at American prices ?
    Americans
    So Americans will be paying higher prices.

    That might help those Americans who might be employed at new consumer tat factories but they're going to far exceeded by those Americans who will lose out.
    Not if they buy American
    Well as you seem to think that home produced consumer goods are the route to prosperity will you be only buying things made in this country in future ?
    Of course I buy British where I can but it is now the US leading the way on tariffs on cheap imports, we will see if that experiment revives US industry and manufacturing or just leads to extra costs for US consumers
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,482
    Scott_xP said:

    @jurgen_nauditt

    Meanwhile, the US stock market has lost over $2 trillion in the last 20 minutes.

    https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1907540913431183666

    Trump has done more to fix inequality than Labour.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,477
    Andy_JS said:

    Tory MP for neighbouring seat to Runcorn & Helsby calls for Tories to stand back and allow Reform to win the seat.

    "Tories should let Reform win Runcorn by-election, says Esther McVey
    Former Cabinet minister proposes that Conservatives should ‘stay out the way’ of a victory for Nigel Farage’s party" (£)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/04/02/tories-let-reform-win-runcorn-byelection-esther-mcvey/

    She's right from 2 perspectives.

    Firstly, it would be awful if the Tory candidate split the Reform candidate's vote and let Labour back in.

    Secondly and more realistically, the Tories are going to get soundly drubbed, so they may as well pretend they never wanted to win.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,785
    @TSE needs to put up this seminal video from Eighties classic "Ferris Beullers Day Off" explaining the effect of tariffs on the US economy to an attentive class of soon to be MAGA voters.

    https://youtu.be/Yk3-Vb7CH-o?feature=shared

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,394

    Scott_xP said:

    @jurgen_nauditt

    Meanwhile, the US stock market has lost over $2 trillion in the last 20 minutes.

    https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1907540913431183666

    Trump has done more to fix inequality than Labour.
    Republican Red is the Communist colo(u)r!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,092

    ‪Phillips OBrien‬ ‪@phillipspobrien.bsky.social‬
    ·
    9m
    I think there is a good chance that these tariffs are scaled back. They don’t go
    Into effect for a few days, and if the stock market crashes, which looks likely, I can see Trump backing down.

    Otherwise it is a global depression.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,534

    We’re at risk here of the world pulling together a notAmerica free trade zone and the UK not being part of it

    This is an absurd fantasy. There isn't a NotAmerica free trade zone, and we're already part of the CPTPP and have a free trade zone with the EU.
    Is it? South Korea, Japan and China agreed yesterday to have a single response to the US tariffs. A few agreements like that and it's not a long leap towards reduced tariffs between them for things where the no country has a competitive advantage.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534
    glw said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chinese tech is largely derivative, the tech companies created by entrepreneurs are dominated by US tech firms.

    Chinese tech is rapidly catching up, and the number of Chinese authors on papers rises year after year. Anyone who thinks they are just copying the US is as daft as the people who used to dismiss Japan or South Korea.
    HYUFD said:

    If you live in the US rustbelt where US industry has steeply declined and manufacturing jobs have steeply fallen while cheap imports, especially from China, have surged you also haven't seen much golden egg recently

    Yeah but that's not what drives the US economy. Trump is giving the whole rest-of-the-world very good reason to find or develop alternatives to the most profitable bits of the US economy. But he seems to think that Autarky is the future so I guess the US will just have to learn the hard way why it isn't.
    If Chinese tech catches up that would happen with or without tariffs if Chinese tech expertise improves.

    If more US consumers buy US made rather than formerly cheaper Chinese goods however that would be a direct result of these tariffs
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,459
    edited April 2
    HYUFD said:

    glw said:

    I don't think it really matters whether other countries apply any retaliatory tariffs as there are going to be consumer boycotts over much of the world against anything 'Made in the USA'.

    Oh it's much worse than that. There is a hell of lot of stuff that essentially the entire rest of the world now wants to be able to source from anywhere other than the US. China will be top dog in tech by the end of this decade. Trump doesn't realise it but he is about to kill the goose that laid the golden egg.

    The medium and long-term effects of Trump will be worse than the short-term, and that will still be very bad.
    Chinese tech is largely derivative, the tech companies created by entrepreneurs are dominated by US tech firms.

    That was true ten years ago, much less true now, and won't be true in a decade's time.

    Ironically, America's own sanctions have given China a strong incentive to onshore everything, probably giving a modest boost to their catchup, though it was happening anyway.

    Biden and Trump have shot the US in both feet on this over the past decade.

  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,281
    Pulpstar said:

    If tariffs are so awful why haven't other nations (And supranational blocks such as the EU) done away with them all ?

    The US economy is based around consumption like nowhere else in the world, and it was till now iirc one of the lowest tariffed. Obviously that's gone but there's a distinct whiff of hypocrisy around the coverage imv.

    https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/EUN/Year/LTST/Summarytext

    "Tariffs imposed by European Union in 2022 are below


    The simple average tariff across all products was 1.97 percent.
    The trade weighted average tariff was 1.34 ."

    https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/GBR/Year/LTST/Summarytext

    "Tariffs imposed by United Kingdom in 2022 are below

    The simple average tariff across all products was 1.15 percent.
    The trade weighted average tariff was 1.02 ."
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,482
    Some people will be surprised to find that they are in agreement with Daniel Hannan:

    https://x.com/danieljhannan/status/1907537737936196049

    The policies just announced are batshit crazy. They will cause a recession. And, when they do, the people who backed them will blame foreigners or globalists or some such, and double down.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,934
    TimS said:

    Has BBC Ten o'clock news sanewashed the madness? I bet Sarah Smith* like HYUFD and William Glenn can see the way through the haze.

    * She would be an embarrassment to her father were he still alive

    Sky certainly. Infuriating. They’re just taking Trump’s assertions on foreign tariff rates as read. But they’re lies.
    Nick Watt and Ben Chu (of BBC Verify) on Newsnight now sanewashing Trump tariffs.

    Disappointed in Derbyshire that she didn't tell Gorka to f*** off, for his unbearable rudeness.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,813
    edited April 2

    The problem of Musk: To be more serious, let me pose a question for all of you: What does Musk want, strategically?

    The Loser is easy; just assume he is Putin's patsy. Musk, I think, sees China as -- sometimes -- a personal ally. What do all of you think?

    My best guess is that Musk thought he could apply his genius to government and sort out its problems. It would literally be rocket science, exactly his bag. The Trump government was his opportunity to deliver without any constraint.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,534

    Andy_JS said:

    Tory MP for neighbouring seat to Runcorn & Helsby calls for Tories to stand back and allow Reform to win the seat.

    "Tories should let Reform win Runcorn by-election, says Esther McVey
    Former Cabinet minister proposes that Conservatives should ‘stay out the way’ of a victory for Nigel Farage’s party" (£)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/04/02/tories-let-reform-win-runcorn-byelection-esther-mcvey/

    She's right from 2 perspectives.

    Firstly, it would be awful if the Tory candidate split the Reform candidate's vote and let Labour back in.

    Secondly and more realistically, the Tories are going to get soundly drubbed, so they may as well pretend they never wanted to win.
    But they still need to stand - they just need to do so in a way that they just about keep their deposit so it's not an embarrassment.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,990

    Scott_xP said:

    @jurgen_nauditt

    Meanwhile, the US stock market has lost over $2 trillion in the last 20 minutes.

    https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1907540913431183666

    Trump has done more to fix inequality than Labour.
    Do you not ever get tired of posting stupid shit?
  • eekeek Posts: 29,534

    Gorka has just said that we can lose the 10% tariff if 20% VAT is unilaterally removed from US goods. What the actual f***?

    Gorka really is more obnoxious than Trump.

    It's just a demonstration that a thick American who has never looked at a receipt in the UK doesn't know how VAT really works.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,973
    Hang on, are we getting a press conference?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,934

    Scott_xP said:

    @jurgen_nauditt

    Meanwhile, the US stock market has lost over $2 trillion in the last 20 minutes.

    https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1907540913431183666

    Trump has done more to fix inequality than Labour.
    What the f*** are you talking about. You are ruining this site with your shilling for Trump. You are a smart guy, are you just trolling libs?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,660

    We’re at risk here of the world pulling together a notAmerica free trade zone and the UK not being part of it

    This is an absurd fantasy. There isn't a NotAmerica free trade zone, and we're already part of the CPTPP and have a free trade zone with the EU.
    1. An awful lot of people are talking about creating something new
    2. CPTPP means what - that we can’t do anything else? Anyone told China and Japan?
    3. We don’t have free trade with the EU. We have a long swathe of tariffs and longer swathes of paperwork even when the tariff rate is zero.

    I know that this is a very tough time for you. Thoughts and prayers and all that
  • eekeek Posts: 29,534

    Some people will be surprised to find that they are in agreement with Daniel Hannan:

    https://x.com/danieljhannan/status/1907537737936196049

    The policies just announced are batshit crazy. They will cause a recession. And, when they do, the people who backed them will blame foreigners or globalists or some such, and double down.

    I think that's the first time Hannan has been right about anything but the consequences are going to be not very bright people blaming those reacting to the tariffs by passing on the price increases rather than the people who created the mess.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,934
    eek said:

    Gorka has just said that we can lose the 10% tariff if 20% VAT is unilaterally removed from US goods. What the actual f***?

    Gorka really is more obnoxious than Trump.

    It's just a demonstration that a thick American who has never looked at a receipt in the UK doesn't know how VAT really works.
    Gorka was educated in an Ealing state school. More power to HYUFD's elbow. Perhaps HY was right all along.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,219

    I don't think it really matters whether other countries apply any retaliatory tariffs as there are going to be consumer boycotts over much of the world against anything 'Made in the USA'.

    Boycott US products and travel there

    Lots of nicer places to visit in the world including Canada where our son and daughter in law live
    I would be delighted to boycott US goods, and I will try, but in due course how do I replace my Apple ecosystem, Microsoft software and the Cloud? Happy to be schooled on this. In the meanwhile, I will avoid the US banking and credit card system, their subscription entertainment offerings and anything else that comes to mind.
    Easy. Use Linux (started by a Finn, although the foundation is US-based, I think) with a non-US distrbution (loads, but Arch is Canadian; SuSE originally German, Swedish parent now) with KDE software (legal entity is a German non-profit). Simple :smiley:
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,482

    We’re at risk here of the world pulling together a notAmerica free trade zone and the UK not being part of it

    This is an absurd fantasy. There isn't a NotAmerica free trade zone, and we're already part of the CPTPP and have a free trade zone with the EU.
    1. An awful lot of people are talking about creating something new
    2. CPTPP means what - that we can’t do anything else? Anyone told China and Japan?
    3. We don’t have free trade with the EU. We have a long swathe of tariffs and longer swathes of paperwork even when the tariff rate is zero.

    I know that this is a very tough time for you. Thoughts and prayers and all that
    Think through the implications of your third point. We have a comprehensive zero-tariff and zero-quota TCA with the EU that goes beyond most free trade agreements in existence globally, but now you imagine that the rest of the world will somehow suddenly agree to go well beyond that and exclude us? It's detached from reality.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,534
    edited April 2

    eek said:

    Gorka has just said that we can lose the 10% tariff if 20% VAT is unilaterally removed from US goods. What the actual f***?

    Gorka really is more obnoxious than Trump.

    It's just a demonstration that a thick American who has never looked at a receipt in the UK doesn't know how VAT really works.
    Gorka was educated in an Ealing state school. More power to HYUFD's elbow. Perhaps HY was right all along.
    Nope he was educated in a Catholic Independent (i.e. parents paying) school because he wasn't bright enough to pass the 12 plus which would have got him into a Grammar school in Bucks / Berks.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St_Benedict's_School,_Ealing is the school for reference...
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,459
    edited April 2
    Pulpstar said:

    If tariffs are so awful why haven't other nations (And supranational blocks such as the EU) done away with them all ?

    Because economic theory allows for tariffs in certain limited circumstances. When you are protecting infant industries (which America's aren't), when there are industries crucial to non-economic purposes like national security (which these general tariffs don't pretend to protect), there is some argument for them.

    Also, politically, powerful lobby groups like farmers and carmakers that benefit hugely from them can influence cowardly or ignorant politicians.

    That last point is usually key.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,092
    HYUFD said:

    glw said:

    I don't think it really matters whether other countries apply any retaliatory tariffs as there are going to be consumer boycotts over much of the world against anything 'Made in the USA'.

    Oh it's much worse than that. There is a hell of lot of stuff that essentially the entire rest of the world now wants to be able to source from anywhere other than the US. China will be top dog in tech by the end of this decade. Trump doesn't realise it but he is about to kill the goose that laid the golden egg.

    The medium and long-term effects of Trump will be worse than the short-term, and that will still be very bad.
    Chinese tech is largely derivative, the tech companies created by entrepreneurs are dominated by US tech firms.

    If you live in the US rustbelt where US industry has steeply declined and manufacturing jobs have steeply fallen while cheap imports, especially from China, have surged you also haven't seen much golden egg recently
    "Chinese tech is largely derivative"

    Might have been true. But is no longer.

    Long piece by Friedman in NY Times on this today:



    "I’d never seen anything like this Huawei campus. Built in just over three years, it consists of 104 individually designed buildings, with manicured lawns, connected by a Disney-like monorail, housing labs for up to 35,000 scientists, engineers and other workers, offering 100 cafes, plus fitness centers and other perks designed to attract the best Chinese and foreign technologists."

    I Just Saw the Future. It Was Not in America.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/02/opinion/trump-tariffs-china.html
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,394
    Eabhal said:

    Hang on, are we getting a press conference?

    Nein!
  • Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chinese tech is largely derivative, the tech companies created by entrepreneurs are dominated by US tech firms.

    That was true ten years ago, much less true now, and won't be true in a decade's time.

    Ironically, America's own sanctions have given China a strong incentive to onshore everything, probably giving a modest boost to their catchup, though it was happening anyway.

    Biden and Trump have shot the US in both feet on this over the past decade.

    Absolutely, the number of sectors where China either leads or is close to leading are numerous and increasing rapidly.

    The big advantage the US has is in high-end semiconductors, but Trump is doing his level best to wreck that and China is pouring money into semiconductor design and fabrication. Even without Trump's madness the US' lead will probably be gone in 10 years.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,534
    Fishing said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If tariffs are so awful why haven't other nations (And supranational blocks such as the EU) done away with them all ?

    Because economic theory allows for tariffs in certain limited circumstances. When you are protecting infant industries (which America's aren't), when there are industries crucial to non-economic purposes like national security (which these general tariffs don't pretend to protect) and when there are increasing returns to scale (ditto), there is some argument for them.

    Also, politically, powerful lobby groups like farmers and carmakers that benefit hugely from them can influence cowardly or ignorant politicians.
    Apart from Tesla I would love to know which American car maker doesn't have factories across North America and ships parts almost randomly from Canada/Mexico to the US and vice versa multiple times in the building of the car (and parts of the car).
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