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Liberation day is going well – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,397
edited April 2 in General
Liberation day is going well – politicalbetting.com

2 takeaways from Tuesday: 1. "If you are Republican candidate running in a swing state, you don't want Elon Musk anywhere near you… He is political poison!" 2. BIG Dem swings in very red FL-1/FL-6 look a lot like KS-4 in 2017, which foreshadowed big Dem gains in 2018. pic.twitter.com/2etAegZ0Ev

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,003
    edited April 2
    Hello

    and goodbye to Elon, apparently.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,665
    Elon the first to get "Liberated"
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,400
    https://www.wired.com/story/doge-takes-control-usip-office-building/

    DOGE is trying to gift itself a $500 million building.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,665
    bondegezou said:

    https://www.wired.com/story/doge-takes-control-usip-office-building/

    DOGE is trying to gift itself a $500 million building.

    Succeeded, apparently
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,003
    This sounds suspiciously Trussian.

    Senate Republicans set to bypass parliamentarian on Trump tax cuts

    https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5226747-republicans-tax-cuts-deficit-senate-parliamentarian/
    Republicans are set to make the audacious play of bypassing the Senate parliamentarian and moving forward with a budget resolution based on a scoring baseline set by Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) that would allow them to argue extending President Trump’s 2017 tax cuts won’t add to the deficit.
    Senate Republicans are being careful to say they won’t “overrule” the parliamentarian — the Senate’s procedural umpire — but Democrats are already accusing them of going “nuclear” by flouting the Senate’s rules and precedents.
    “We think the law is very clear, and ultimately the budget committee chairman makes that determination,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) told reporters Tuesday, arguing Graham has the authority to decide whether extending the Trump tax cuts would add to the deficit and need to be offset by big spending cuts or revenue-raising proposals...

    Spoiler, extending the tax cut will increase the deficit by several trillion dollars.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,400
    Musk always said he was only going to stay for a certain period, so I’m not certain this is Musk getting the boot.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,163
    Susie Wiles about to 'liberate' Muskovite to spend more time with his rocket collection?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,665
    bondegezou said:

    Musk always said he was only going to stay for a certain period, so I’m not certain this is Musk getting the boot.

    Didn't last 100 days...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,090
    bondegezou said:

    Musk always said he was only going to stay for a certain period, so I’m not certain this is Musk getting the boot.

    Indeed: Musk himself has said that he expects to be able to step back from DOGE (having achieved all his goals) at the end of May.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,665
    rcs1000 said:

    bondegezou said:

    Musk always said he was only going to stay for a certain period, so I’m not certain this is Musk getting the boot.

    Indeed: Musk himself has said that he expects to be able to step back from DOGE (having achieved all his goals) at the end of May.
    Not going to make it that far.

    Note, all the reports emerging now are not "Musk says he is leaving", they are "Trump says Musk is leaving"

    The bum's rush...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,096
    DOGE has essentially been integrated into the workings of the US govt now so no need for Elon to stay there.
    Whether TSLA recovers remains to be seen, Elon probably wanted to step down lol
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,347
    Nigelb said:

    This sounds suspiciously Trussian.

    Senate Republicans set to bypass parliamentarian on Trump tax cuts

    https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5226747-republicans-tax-cuts-deficit-senate-parliamentarian/
    Republicans are set to make the audacious play of bypassing the Senate parliamentarian and moving forward with a budget resolution based on a scoring baseline set by Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) that would allow them to argue extending President Trump’s 2017 tax cuts won’t add to the deficit.
    Senate Republicans are being careful to say they won’t “overrule” the parliamentarian — the Senate’s procedural umpire — but Democrats are already accusing them of going “nuclear” by flouting the Senate’s rules and precedents.
    “We think the law is very clear, and ultimately the budget committee chairman makes that determination,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) told reporters Tuesday, arguing Graham has the authority to decide whether extending the Trump tax cuts would add to the deficit and need to be offset by big spending cuts or revenue-raising proposals...

    Spoiler, extending the tax cut will increase the deficit by several trillion dollars.

    Reality can be very inconvenient, so it should be ignored when the King demands it. Some people really ignore the lesson Cnut was trying to teach.
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 587
    edited April 2
    It will come at a substantial political cost if starmer rolls over and wags his tail at Trump tariffs. 1) the US trade deal might never land... it is a long shot. And 2) the uk public hates Trump and despises weakness towards Trump. 3) The electorate overwhelmingly wants to get back into the EU....

    Starmers' weakness with Trump makes me want to puke.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,347
    Pulpstar said:

    DOGE has essentially been integrated into the workings of the US govt now so no need for Elon to stay there.
    Whether TSLA recovers remains to be seen, Elon probably wanted to step down lol

    No doubt he will still have plenty of unofficial influence, and he really does need to focus more on the businesses he owns, so mucking about for a couple of months to set up future influence was probably a no brainer.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,090
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    This sounds suspiciously Trussian.

    Senate Republicans set to bypass parliamentarian on Trump tax cuts

    https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5226747-republicans-tax-cuts-deficit-senate-parliamentarian/
    Republicans are set to make the audacious play of bypassing the Senate parliamentarian and moving forward with a budget resolution based on a scoring baseline set by Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) that would allow them to argue extending President Trump’s 2017 tax cuts won’t add to the deficit.
    Senate Republicans are being careful to say they won’t “overrule” the parliamentarian — the Senate’s procedural umpire — but Democrats are already accusing them of going “nuclear” by flouting the Senate’s rules and precedents.
    “We think the law is very clear, and ultimately the budget committee chairman makes that determination,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) told reporters Tuesday, arguing Graham has the authority to decide whether extending the Trump tax cuts would add to the deficit and need to be offset by big spending cuts or revenue-raising proposals...

    Spoiler, extending the tax cut will increase the deficit by several trillion dollars.

    Reality can be very inconvenient, so it should be ignored when the King demands it. Some people really ignore the lesson Cnut was trying to teach.
    Not a lot of people know this, but soon after Cnut ordered the waters to recede they did. And they only returned to the previous level the next day.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,555
    Hull:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd6jv4yxvgwo

    "Man charged with 64 offences in funeral home probe"
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,347
    People may not agree with all of the article's premise around the equal pay rulings (I confess it does seem odd to me that very different jobs, some of which are more attractive/easier than others, are deemed equivalent), but I think it is the case that a large share of blame rests with the government.

    There is profligacy in local government at times, but the time when that was the main issue was a long time ago - Westminster and Whitehall are putting more on them, whilst giving less, and making them fight for scraps given out on an inconsistent basis, and now adding further layers on top to boot.

    Such an effort might also put the spotlight back on central government, where an increasing share of the blame for local governments’ woes ultimately rests, not just for absurd equal-pay legislation but also the increasingly impossible burden of unfunded statutory responsibilities such as social care. If Birmingham councillors are going to be pinned in the spotlight by stupid Whitehall decisions, the least they can do is make ministers squirm.
    https://capx.co/how-to-solve-birminghams-bin-strike
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,555
    carnforth said:

    Hull:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd6jv4yxvgwo

    "Man charged with 64 offences in funeral home probe"

    Seems to have involved selling funeral plans then spending the money and not having any left to bury people. New regulation incoming?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,498
    Fpt:
    Daveyboy1961 said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Andy_JS said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Post spring statement @Moreincommon_ VI sees Labour fall to our lowest score for them at 21%. Tories at 26% lead Reform by 1.

    🌳 CON 26% (+1)
    ➡️ REF UK 25% (+1)
    🌹 LAB 21% (-3)
    🔶 LIB DEM 13% (+1)
    🌍 GREEN 7% (-3)
    🟡 SNP 2% (-1)

    N =2,081 | Dates: 28 - 31/3 | Change w 24/3

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/1907323946090872979

    Maybe it really will be Kemi PM and Nigel deputy PM.
    The polls are remarkably stuck in a doldrums of Lab/Con/Ref all scoring twenty something, with veryu few polls outside the margin of error and the real figures, as far as they mean anythng, all being close together and as in Wiki's rolling chart.

    What is not easy to see is how any of the three can break away. SFAICS there are irremovable grounds for people disliking all of them. Lab, because they have done no magic and communicate terribly; Tories for reasons requiring no expansion, but added to by the continuing lack of calibre at the top; Reform because they are a toxic mixture of gormless, extreme, dangerous, factional and tainted by association with Trumpism.

    Following Sherlock's truism: 'Once you have eliminated the impossible....' etc then one conclusion arises as a possibility. At this distance from 2010-2015, the least tainted party by far is the LDs. Could the next year or two be their time in the sun. I have no sense or feeling this is the case; but I don't have any sense of possible rise about any of them.
    Let's be fair, the Lib Dems do not 'communicate terribly' they are a collection of noxious political opportunists who would sell their granny for a whiff of power and are wholly bought into the broken political consensus that has led the economy to the brink of bankruptcy and society to a rabble. They have nothing of value to say on the pressing issues of the day other than the highly dubious notion that 'we would do this better', an approach that the dawn of Starmer has already found to be empty and inadequate.
    I stopped reading after the first 3 words as you immediately contradicted yourself and your prejudices came to the fore.
    Yes. Which was 'fair' in the context of a post where Algakirk had let his prejudices about Reform and the Tories come to the fore.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,527
    Nigelb said:

    Hello

    and goodbye to Elon, apparently.

    A breath of fresh air for somebody to aim to make their role redundant by succeeding in it.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,058
    Cleitophon said:

    It will come at a substantial political cost if starmer rolls over and wags his tail at Trump tariffs. 1) the US trade deal might never land... it is a long shot. And 2) the uk public hates Trump and despises weakness towards Trump. 3) The electorate overwhelmingly wants to get back into the EU....

    Starmers' weakness with Trump makes me want to puke.

    Trump will eventually reduce his tariffs. Not because of whatever position Starmer, Macron, Carney or even Xi take, but because of the stock market. What Starmer and the UK does here is broadly irrelevant, if inevitably much discussed locally.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,058
    Pulpstar said:

    DOGE has essentially been integrated into the workings of the US govt now so no need for Elon to stay there.
    Whether TSLA recovers remains to be seen, Elon probably wanted to step down lol

    I may be talking my Book here but time for a new Face.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,090
    williamglenn said:

    Nigelb said:

    Hello

    and goodbye to Elon, apparently.

    A breath of fresh air for somebody to aim to make their role redundant by succeeding in it.
    I'm happy to bet that the US Federal deficit will be larger post DOGE cuts than before if you like.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,829
    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    This sounds suspiciously Trussian.

    Senate Republicans set to bypass parliamentarian on Trump tax cuts

    https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5226747-republicans-tax-cuts-deficit-senate-parliamentarian/
    Republicans are set to make the audacious play of bypassing the Senate parliamentarian and moving forward with a budget resolution based on a scoring baseline set by Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) that would allow them to argue extending President Trump’s 2017 tax cuts won’t add to the deficit.
    Senate Republicans are being careful to say they won’t “overrule” the parliamentarian — the Senate’s procedural umpire — but Democrats are already accusing them of going “nuclear” by flouting the Senate’s rules and precedents.
    “We think the law is very clear, and ultimately the budget committee chairman makes that determination,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) told reporters Tuesday, arguing Graham has the authority to decide whether extending the Trump tax cuts would add to the deficit and need to be offset by big spending cuts or revenue-raising proposals...

    Spoiler, extending the tax cut will increase the deficit by several trillion dollars.

    Reality can be very inconvenient, so it should be ignored when the King demands it. Some people really ignore the lesson Cnut was trying to teach.
    Not a lot of people know this, but soon after Cnut ordered the waters to recede they did. And they only returned to the previous level the next day.
    To be pedantic, the level of the tide the next day would vary with the phase of the moon.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,090
    Pulpstar said:

    DOGE has essentially been integrated into the workings of the US govt now so no need for Elon to stay there.
    Whether TSLA recovers remains to be seen, Elon probably wanted to step down lol

    Tesla's unquestioned dominance of the Western world's electric vehicle sales is over, thanks to Elon. He's single handedly rescued the EV businesses of VW and the like.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,090
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    This sounds suspiciously Trussian.

    Senate Republicans set to bypass parliamentarian on Trump tax cuts

    https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5226747-republicans-tax-cuts-deficit-senate-parliamentarian/
    Republicans are set to make the audacious play of bypassing the Senate parliamentarian and moving forward with a budget resolution based on a scoring baseline set by Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) that would allow them to argue extending President Trump’s 2017 tax cuts won’t add to the deficit.
    Senate Republicans are being careful to say they won’t “overrule” the parliamentarian — the Senate’s procedural umpire — but Democrats are already accusing them of going “nuclear” by flouting the Senate’s rules and precedents.
    “We think the law is very clear, and ultimately the budget committee chairman makes that determination,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) told reporters Tuesday, arguing Graham has the authority to decide whether extending the Trump tax cuts would add to the deficit and need to be offset by big spending cuts or revenue-raising proposals...

    Spoiler, extending the tax cut will increase the deficit by several trillion dollars.

    Reality can be very inconvenient, so it should be ignored when the King demands it. Some people really ignore the lesson Cnut was trying to teach.
    Not a lot of people know this, but soon after Cnut ordered the waters to recede they did. And they only returned to the previous level the next day.
    To be pedantic, the level of the tide the next day would vary with the phase of the moon.
    Are you suggesting that Cnut was not responsible for the water's movements?

    HERETIC!
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,297
    williamglenn said:

    Nigelb said:

    Hello

    and goodbye to Elon, apparently.

    A breath of fresh air for somebody to aim to make their role redundant by succeeding in it.
    So you think Musk's aim was to make all the investigations into his businesses disappear, while making such massive screw-ups everywhere that people didn't notice said investigations disappearing?

    Obviously you're idea of a breath of fresh air is what most people would call the stench of a mountain of shit.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,527
    rcs1000 said:

    williamglenn said:

    Nigelb said:

    Hello

    and goodbye to Elon, apparently.

    A breath of fresh air for somebody to aim to make their role redundant by succeeding in it.
    I'm happy to bet that the US Federal deficit will be larger post DOGE cuts than before if you like.
    Musk wasn't responsible for the income side, so you can't hold the deficit against him.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,334
    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    Hull:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd6jv4yxvgwo

    "Man charged with 64 offences in funeral home probe"

    Seems to have involved selling funeral plans then spending the money and not having any left to bury people. New regulation incoming?
    Well just applying client monies rules to funeral plans would probably be enough.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,269
    Pulpstar said:

    DOGE has essentially been integrated into the workings of the US govt now so no need for Elon to stay there.
    Whether TSLA recovers remains to be seen, Elon probably wanted to step down lol

    Musk has succeeded in not making a material change in US government spending, which continues to increase at fairly rapid rate, while becoming very unpopular in the process.

    Maybe he's working with the Treasury?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,308
    edited April 2
    Cleitophon said:

    It will come at a substantial political cost if starmer rolls over and wags his tail at Trump tariffs. 1) the US trade deal might never land... it is a long shot. And 2) the uk public hates Trump and despises weakness towards Trump. 3) The electorate overwhelmingly wants to get back into the EU....

    Starmers' weakness with Trump makes me want to puke.

    Me too. Like Gaza a humungus mistake. if Labour aren't on the side of the angels you might as well vote Tory. Same result but it makes you less angry. In this instance it's even worse than that. It puts him on the side of Farage and makes his hopes of European leadership just look pretentious The powwows will soon stop taking place in London
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,396
    edited April 2
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Fpt:

    Daveyboy1961 said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Andy_JS said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Post spring statement @Moreincommon_ VI sees Labour fall to our lowest score for them at 21%. Tories at 26% lead Reform by 1.

    🌳 CON 26% (+1)
    ➡️ REF UK 25% (+1)
    🌹 LAB 21% (-3)
    🔶 LIB DEM 13% (+1)
    🌍 GREEN 7% (-3)
    🟡 SNP 2% (-1)

    N =2,081 | Dates: 28 - 31/3 | Change w 24/3

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/1907323946090872979

    Maybe it really will be Kemi PM and Nigel deputy PM.
    The polls are remarkably stuck in a doldrums of Lab/Con/Ref all scoring twenty something, with veryu few polls outside the margin of error and the real figures, as far as they mean anythng, all being close together and as in Wiki's rolling chart.

    What is not easy to see is how any of the three can break away. SFAICS there are irremovable grounds for people disliking all of them. Lab, because they have done no magic and communicate terribly; Tories for reasons requiring no expansion, but added to by the continuing lack of calibre at the top; Reform because they are a toxic mixture of gormless, extreme, dangerous, factional and tainted by association with Trumpism.

    Following Sherlock's truism: 'Once you have eliminated the impossible....' etc then one conclusion arises as a possibility. At this distance from 2010-2015, the least tainted party by far is the LDs. Could the next year or two be their time in the sun. I have no sense or feeling this is the case; but I don't have any sense of possible rise about any of them.
    Let's be fair, the Lib Dems do not 'communicate terribly' they are a collection of noxious political opportunists who would sell their granny for a whiff of power and are wholly bought into the broken political consensus that has led the economy to the brink of bankruptcy and society to a rabble. They have nothing of value to say on the pressing issues of the day other than the highly dubious notion that 'we would do this better', an approach that the dawn of Starmer has already found to be empty and inadequate.
    I stopped reading after the first 3 words as you immediately contradicted yourself and your prejudices came to the fore.
    Yes. Which was 'fair' in the context of a post where Algakirk had let his prejudices about Reform and the Tories come to the fore.
    I think you are a little confused. Nobody joins the LDs if their motive is power. There are two other parties that provide much better opportunities.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,268
    Cicero said:

    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    Hull:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd6jv4yxvgwo

    "Man charged with 64 offences in funeral home probe"

    Seems to have involved selling funeral plans then spending the money and not having any left to bury people. New regulation incoming?
    Well just applying client monies rules to funeral plans would probably be enough.
    I may be wrong but assume that's already the case, hence the fraud charges. Client money rules do get broken in areas where they apply - and that should end up in the courts. The difference here presumably isn't the rules that apply but the fact that financial recompense doesn't really do the job when you learn your gran's remains have been mishandled.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,970
    rcs1000 said:

    bondegezou said:

    Musk always said he was only going to stay for a certain period, so I’m not certain this is Musk getting the boot.

    Indeed: Musk himself has said that he expects to be able to step back from DOGE (having achieved all his goals) at the end of May.
    For today it’s messed up my sell position on Tesla, for sure. But I don’t think Musk and Tesla are going to be able to disassociate themselves so easily from Trump’s MAGA idiocy. Their car is going to be seen as the Swasticar for some time yet. So I am holding my position expecting further falls in Tesla once investors see the penny dropping.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,268
    edited April 2
    noneoftheabove said:

    Cleitophon said:

    It will come at a substantial political cost if starmer rolls over and wags his tail at Trump tariffs. 1) the US trade deal might never land... it is a long shot. And 2) the uk public hates Trump and despises weakness towards Trump. 3) The electorate overwhelmingly wants to get back into the EU....

    Starmers' weakness with Trump makes me want to puke.

    Trump will eventually reduce his tariffs. Not because of whatever position Starmer, Macron, Carney or even Xi take, but because of the stock market. What Starmer and the UK does here is broadly irrelevant, if inevitably much discussed locally.
    But presumably the US stock market reaction is not just driven by the fact imports will be more expensive for American consumers (and producers in terms of inputs), but also that American products become less competitive in (say) Germany due to reciprocal tariffs? Trade wars also tend to reduce investment - people defer it until the fog of trade war clears a bit and they know how much Canadian lumber costs.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,596
    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    Hull:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd6jv4yxvgwo

    "Man charged with 64 offences in funeral home probe"

    Seems to have involved selling funeral plans then spending the money and not having any left to bury people. New regulation incoming?
    Dead certainty.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,334
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    Cicero said:

    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    Hull:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd6jv4yxvgwo

    "Man charged with 64 offences in funeral home probe"

    Seems to have involved selling funeral plans then spending the money and not having any left to bury people. New regulation incoming?
    Well just applying client monies rules to funeral plans would probably be enough.
    I may be wrong but assume that's already the case, hence the fraud charges. Client money rules do get broken in areas where they apply - and that should end up in the courts. The difference here presumably isn't the rules that apply but the fact that financial recompense doesn't really do the job when you learn your gran's remains have been mishandled.
    You may be right- so this becomes a question of remedy for wrong doing, rather than the need for a change in the law. Possibly a case for an industry insurance like ABTA bonds?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,347
    I cannot help but feel this BBC headline is exactly what would make Trump happy. If it did so in a positive way then all the better, but even if not, who could fail to acknowledge his power then?

    Trump poised to reshape global economy and how world does business
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,163
    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    bondegezou said:

    Musk always said he was only going to stay for a certain period, so I’m not certain this is Musk getting the boot.

    Indeed: Musk himself has said that he expects to be able to step back from DOGE (having achieved all his goals) at the end of May.
    For today it’s messed up my sell position on Tesla, for sure. But I don’t think Musk and Tesla are going to be able to disassociate themselves so easily from Trump’s MAGA idiocy. Their car is going to be seen as the Swasticar for some time yet. So I am holding my position expecting further falls in Tesla once investors see the penny dropping.
    Shame he can't stay until the mid-terms seeing as he seems to send Dem voters flooding into the booths.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,268
    Cicero said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    Cicero said:

    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    Hull:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd6jv4yxvgwo

    "Man charged with 64 offences in funeral home probe"

    Seems to have involved selling funeral plans then spending the money and not having any left to bury people. New regulation incoming?
    Well just applying client monies rules to funeral plans would probably be enough.
    I may be wrong but assume that's already the case, hence the fraud charges. Client money rules do get broken in areas where they apply - and that should end up in the courts. The difference here presumably isn't the rules that apply but the fact that financial recompense doesn't really do the job when you learn your gran's remains have been mishandled.
    You may be right- so this becomes a question of remedy for wrong doing, rather than the need for a change in the law. Possibly a case for an industry insurance like ABTA bonds?
    In terms of regulation, they could still look to impose stricter reporting requirements on smaller firms in particular, imposing capital requirements essentially squeezing out smaller operations with single points of failure, or putting in place other requirements for certain forms of independent certification where bodies are sent for burial or cremation.

    My point was just that I'd be quite surprised if the basic allegation (trousering payments for a funeral plan rather than holding it separate for the actual funeral) is legal now, hence the charges. We could still do more on making it harder in practice to break existing rules.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,970
    rottenborough said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    bondegezou said:

    Musk always said he was only going to stay for a certain period, so I’m not certain this is Musk getting the boot.

    Indeed: Musk himself has said that he expects to be able to step back from DOGE (having achieved all his goals) at the end of May.
    For today it’s messed up my sell position on Tesla, for sure. But I don’t think Musk and Tesla are going to be able to disassociate themselves so easily from Trump’s MAGA idiocy. Their car is going to be seen as the Swasticar for some time yet. So I am holding my position expecting further falls in Tesla once investors see the penny dropping.
    Shame he can't stay until the mid-terms seeing as he seems to send Dem voters flooding into the booths.
    These Trumpite headcases will be voted out, for sure, at the earliest opportunity, unless they can come up with some way of rigging the system meantime.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,347
    IanB2 said:

    rottenborough said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    bondegezou said:

    Musk always said he was only going to stay for a certain period, so I’m not certain this is Musk getting the boot.

    Indeed: Musk himself has said that he expects to be able to step back from DOGE (having achieved all his goals) at the end of May.
    For today it’s messed up my sell position on Tesla, for sure. But I don’t think Musk and Tesla are going to be able to disassociate themselves so easily from Trump’s MAGA idiocy. Their car is going to be seen as the Swasticar for some time yet. So I am holding my position expecting further falls in Tesla once investors see the penny dropping.
    Shame he can't stay until the mid-terms seeing as he seems to send Dem voters flooding into the booths.
    These Trumpite headcases will be voted out, for sure, at the earliest opportunity, unless they can come up with some way of rigging the system meantime.
    Given how boundaries get drawn up and non-competitive much of the country is I would suspect not that many headcases are that vulnerable, though matters are so tight even a few going makes a difference.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,090
    williamglenn said:

    rcs1000 said:

    williamglenn said:

    Nigelb said:

    Hello

    and goodbye to Elon, apparently.

    A breath of fresh air for somebody to aim to make their role redundant by succeeding in it.
    I'm happy to bet that the US Federal deficit will be larger post DOGE cuts than before if you like.
    Musk wasn't responsible for the income side, so you can't hold the deficit against him.
    You don't think DOGE is responsible for firing lots of IRS employees?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,328
    Samarkand, and the living is easy



  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,347
    Leon said:

    Samarkand, and the living is easy



    It's really changed since the days of Genghis Khan I assume.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,464
    I don't know if anybody is interested in going to Paris, Brussels or Amsterdam, but Eurostar currently has a sale on.

    £35 one way between now and early July on some inconvenient trains.

    Sale ends tomorrow.

    Very cheap I thought given that they usually charge twice or three times that.

    Bon voyage and all that.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,464
    Leon said:

    Samarkand, and the living is easy



    Samarkand is nice but I preferred Bokhara myself.

    I thought the old town was rather mellower.

    I think Uzbekistan is very underrated as a destination myself. You've reminded me I need to get back there.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,555
    edited April 2
    Fishing said:

    I don't know if anybody is interested in going to Paris, Brussels or Amsterdam, but Eurostar currently has a sale on.

    £35 one way between now and early July on some inconvenient trains.

    Sale ends tomorrow.

    Very cheap I thought given that they usually charge twice or three times that.

    Bon voyage and all that.

    That's always the alleged minimum price (at least for Paris). It's just that they're normally rare as hen's teeth.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,308
    Good PPB by the Lib Dems. Nothing at all out of the odinary but apart from 'Pensioners fuel' I agreed with everything Davey said. I particularly liked the laid back unflash delivery. just right after the ridiculous US inspired monstrosity by Farage who is looking increasingly like a poor mans Musk
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,334
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    Cicero said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    Cicero said:

    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    Hull:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd6jv4yxvgwo

    "Man charged with 64 offences in funeral home probe"

    Seems to have involved selling funeral plans then spending the money and not having any left to bury people. New regulation incoming?
    Well just applying client monies rules to funeral plans would probably be enough.
    I may be wrong but assume that's already the case, hence the fraud charges. Client money rules do get broken in areas where they apply - and that should end up in the courts. The difference here presumably isn't the rules that apply but the fact that financial recompense doesn't really do the job when you learn your gran's remains have been mishandled.
    You may be right- so this becomes a question of remedy for wrong doing, rather than the need for a change in the law. Possibly a case for an industry insurance like ABTA bonds?
    In terms of regulation, they could still look to impose stricter reporting requirements on smaller firms in particular, imposing capital requirements essentially squeezing out smaller operations with single points of failure, or putting in place other requirements for certain forms of independent certification where bodies are sent for burial or cremation.

    My point was just that I'd be quite surprised if the basic allegation (trousering payments for a funeral plan rather than holding it separate for the actual funeral) is legal now, hence the charges. We could still do more on making it harder in practice to break existing rules.
    Fair enough- though having just lost a very close relative I have had an exceptionally good experience with an independent funeral director. I have concerns that a sector increasingly dominated by large institutions might use their power to reduce competition still further.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,090
    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    bondegezou said:

    Musk always said he was only going to stay for a certain period, so I’m not certain this is Musk getting the boot.

    Indeed: Musk himself has said that he expects to be able to step back from DOGE (having achieved all his goals) at the end of May.
    For today it’s messed up my sell position on Tesla, for sure. But I don’t think Musk and Tesla are going to be able to disassociate themselves so easily from Trump’s MAGA idiocy. Their car is going to be seen as the Swasticar for some time yet. So I am holding my position expecting further falls in Tesla once investors see the penny dropping.
    I agree:

    The Tesla brand is forever associated with Elon Musk and Donald Trump. And the irony is that most people who support Donald Trump hate electric vehicles.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,308
    Very good MEP on Ch 4 News making the case to go all guns blazing against Trump. Starmer's tough man stand lasted exactly a week. Even the Chinese are joining in. They also wont give an inch to Trump. I think Starmer should take note of public opinion
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,801
    Vanilla is fixed! Rejoice!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,127
    "Breaking: A Russian Tu-22M3 supersonic, long-range strategic and maritime strike bomber has crashed. The fate of the crew remains unknown."

    https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1907475168123040171
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,161
    Roger said:

    Very good MEP on Ch 4 News making the case to go all guns blazing against Trump. Starmer's tough man stand lasted exactly a week. Even the Chinese are joining in. They also wont give an inch to Trump. I think Starmer should take note of public opinion

    Why do we want to do the same thing as the Chinese?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,722
    Fishing said:

    Leon said:

    Samarkand, and the living is easy



    Samarkand is nice but I preferred Bokhara myself.

    I thought the old town was rather mellower.

    I think Uzbekistan is very underrated as a destination myself. You've reminded me I need to get back there.
    I've always had a yen to visit Uzbekistan, in a way that I haven't about any other Islamic country.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,971
    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    @TSE @rcs1000
    Vanilla appears to be less shit now. Whatever the mods did, well done you

    Donations welcome, so long as they're not in Tesla stock.
    You have my every good wish...
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,334
    Musk out? For the short run good news for TSLA stock... A cracking last chance to get out alive.

    Longer term. Doom. US Tech stocks still in mid air. Musk should be grateful he did not end up like Giuliani... yet.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,595
    kjh said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Fpt:

    Daveyboy1961 said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Andy_JS said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Post spring statement @Moreincommon_ VI sees Labour fall to our lowest score for them at 21%. Tories at 26% lead Reform by 1.

    🌳 CON 26% (+1)
    ➡️ REF UK 25% (+1)
    🌹 LAB 21% (-3)
    🔶 LIB DEM 13% (+1)
    🌍 GREEN 7% (-3)
    🟡 SNP 2% (-1)

    N =2,081 | Dates: 28 - 31/3 | Change w 24/3

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/1907323946090872979

    Maybe it really will be Kemi PM and Nigel deputy PM.
    The polls are remarkably stuck in a doldrums of Lab/Con/Ref all scoring twenty something, with veryu few polls outside the margin of error and the real figures, as far as they mean anythng, all being close together and as in Wiki's rolling chart.

    What is not easy to see is how any of the three can break away. SFAICS there are irremovable grounds for people disliking all of them. Lab, because they have done no magic and communicate terribly; Tories for reasons requiring no expansion, but added to by the continuing lack of calibre at the top; Reform because they are a toxic mixture of gormless, extreme, dangerous, factional and tainted by association with Trumpism.

    Following Sherlock's truism: 'Once you have eliminated the impossible....' etc then one conclusion arises as a possibility. At this distance from 2010-2015, the least tainted party by far is the LDs. Could the next year or two be their time in the sun. I have no sense or feeling this is the case; but I don't have any sense of possible rise about any of them.
    Let's be fair, the Lib Dems do not 'communicate terribly' they are a collection of noxious political opportunists who would sell their granny for a whiff of power and are wholly bought into the broken political consensus that has led the economy to the brink of bankruptcy and society to a rabble. They have nothing of value to say on the pressing issues of the day other than the highly dubious notion that 'we would do this better', an approach that the dawn of Starmer has already found to be empty and inadequate.
    I stopped reading after the first 3 words as you immediately contradicted yourself and your prejudices came to the fore.
    Yes. Which was 'fair' in the context of a post where Algakirk had let his prejudices about Reform and the Tories come to the fore.
    I think you are a little confused. Nobody joins the LDs if their motive is power. There are two other parties that provide much better opportunities.
    Nick Clegg certainly did and Davey could well be Kingmaker next time too
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,595
    Cleitophon said:

    It will come at a substantial political cost if starmer rolls over and wags his tail at Trump tariffs. 1) the US trade deal might never land... it is a long shot. And 2) the uk public hates Trump and despises weakness towards Trump. 3) The electorate overwhelmingly wants to get back into the EU....

    Starmers' weakness with Trump makes me want to puke.

    So overwhelmingly do they want to rejoin the EU Farage's Reform lead half the current polls
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,555
    JosiasJessop said:

    I've just got a new laptop, and the first question my ten year old son asked me about it is: "Have you logged onto PoliticalBetting yet?"

    I guess I spend a lot of time on here... :)

    You should keep a separate laptop for dodgy activities.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,283
    We should be seeing this move by America as it once again demonstrating its unreliability, and pivoting accordingly.

    As per Peston last night, isn’t it now the time to say “OK, America, we’re very sorry you’re going in this direction but good luck. We’ll just be over here with Europe, and Canada, and Mexico, and Australia, and Asia and the Chinese, and we’ll all be working to reduce our tariffs on each other. And by the way, manufacturer X and company Y, it would sure be great for you to set up shop here, because you surely want to retain access to these markets and the trading environment will be much more benign”.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,549
    Cookie said:

    Fishing said:

    Leon said:

    Samarkand, and the living is easy



    Samarkand is nice but I preferred Bokhara myself.

    I thought the old town was rather mellower.

    I think Uzbekistan is very underrated as a destination myself. You've reminded me I need to get back there.
    I've always had a yen to visit Uzbekistan, in a way that I haven't about any other Islamic country.
    Yes, me too. I shared a corridor at university with a guy who was an infectiously enthusiastic Marlowe nut, so Tamburlaine the Great is my start point. And, with slight embarrassment, Dan Cruikshank's Around the World in 80 Treasures' (Iran would be right in scope as an alternative were things different)
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,268
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Fpt:

    Daveyboy1961 said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Andy_JS said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Post spring statement @Moreincommon_ VI sees Labour fall to our lowest score for them at 21%. Tories at 26% lead Reform by 1.

    🌳 CON 26% (+1)
    ➡️ REF UK 25% (+1)
    🌹 LAB 21% (-3)
    🔶 LIB DEM 13% (+1)
    🌍 GREEN 7% (-3)
    🟡 SNP 2% (-1)

    N =2,081 | Dates: 28 - 31/3 | Change w 24/3

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/1907323946090872979

    Maybe it really will be Kemi PM and Nigel deputy PM.
    The polls are remarkably stuck in a doldrums of Lab/Con/Ref all scoring twenty something, with veryu few polls outside the margin of error and the real figures, as far as they mean anythng, all being close together and as in Wiki's rolling chart.

    What is not easy to see is how any of the three can break away. SFAICS there are irremovable grounds for people disliking all of them. Lab, because they have done no magic and communicate terribly; Tories for reasons requiring no expansion, but added to by the continuing lack of calibre at the top; Reform because they are a toxic mixture of gormless, extreme, dangerous, factional and tainted by association with Trumpism.

    Following Sherlock's truism: 'Once you have eliminated the impossible....' etc then one conclusion arises as a possibility. At this distance from 2010-2015, the least tainted party by far is the LDs. Could the next year or two be their time in the sun. I have no sense or feeling this is the case; but I don't have any sense of possible rise about any of them.
    Let's be fair, the Lib Dems do not 'communicate terribly' they are a collection of noxious political opportunists who would sell their granny for a whiff of power and are wholly bought into the broken political consensus that has led the economy to the brink of bankruptcy and society to a rabble. They have nothing of value to say on the pressing issues of the day other than the highly dubious notion that 'we would do this better', an approach that the dawn of Starmer has already found to be empty and inadequate.
    I stopped reading after the first 3 words as you immediately contradicted yourself and your prejudices came to the fore.
    Yes. Which was 'fair' in the context of a post where Algakirk had let his prejudices about Reform and the Tories come to the fore.
    I think you are a little confused. Nobody joins the LDs if their motive is power. There are two other parties that provide much better opportunities.
    Nick Clegg certainly did and Davey could well be Kingmaker next time too
    That's a slightly different point, though.

    Saying you don't join the Lib Dems if your motive is power isn't the same as saying that they are never influential. It's saying that, if you're purely a careerist, there are better bets out there.

    For example, it's hardly fanciful to think that Nick Clegg could have been Deputy PM or a senior cabinet minister had he decided to join the Tories from the get go. Like him or not, he's a capable person and it isn't exactly flattering him to say he could've held a post recently held by Dominic Raab and Oliver Dowden.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,407
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Fpt:

    Daveyboy1961 said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Andy_JS said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Post spring statement @Moreincommon_ VI sees Labour fall to our lowest score for them at 21%. Tories at 26% lead Reform by 1.

    🌳 CON 26% (+1)
    ➡️ REF UK 25% (+1)
    🌹 LAB 21% (-3)
    🔶 LIB DEM 13% (+1)
    🌍 GREEN 7% (-3)
    🟡 SNP 2% (-1)

    N =2,081 | Dates: 28 - 31/3 | Change w 24/3

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/1907323946090872979

    Maybe it really will be Kemi PM and Nigel deputy PM.
    The polls are remarkably stuck in a doldrums of Lab/Con/Ref all scoring twenty something, with veryu few polls outside the margin of error and the real figures, as far as they mean anythng, all being close together and as in Wiki's rolling chart.

    What is not easy to see is how any of the three can break away. SFAICS there are irremovable grounds for people disliking all of them. Lab, because they have done no magic and communicate terribly; Tories for reasons requiring no expansion, but added to by the continuing lack of calibre at the top; Reform because they are a toxic mixture of gormless, extreme, dangerous, factional and tainted by association with Trumpism.

    Following Sherlock's truism: 'Once you have eliminated the impossible....' etc then one conclusion arises as a possibility. At this distance from 2010-2015, the least tainted party by far is the LDs. Could the next year or two be their time in the sun. I have no sense or feeling this is the case; but I don't have any sense of possible rise about any of them.
    Let's be fair, the Lib Dems do not 'communicate terribly' they are a collection of noxious political opportunists who would sell their granny for a whiff of power and are wholly bought into the broken political consensus that has led the economy to the brink of bankruptcy and society to a rabble. They have nothing of value to say on the pressing issues of the day other than the highly dubious notion that 'we would do this better', an approach that the dawn of Starmer has already found to be empty and inadequate.
    I stopped reading after the first 3 words as you immediately contradicted yourself and your prejudices came to the fore.
    Yes. Which was 'fair' in the context of a post where Algakirk had let his prejudices about Reform and the Tories come to the fore.
    I think you are a little confused. Nobody joins the LDs if their motive is power. There are two other parties that provide much better opportunities.
    Nick Clegg certainly did and Davey could well be Kingmaker next time too
    The LDs are nuts. So far as I can work out their political aims are to be a bunch of female school-teacherish types led by a man. There's nothing wrong with female, there's only a bit to baffle about school teachers, and there's nothing wrong with being a man. But...

    It really seems like a party planning surrender before there's even the slightest of threat of fisticuffs.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,161
    Leon said:

    Samarkand, and the living is easy



    How safe is it to visit?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,407
    RobD said:

    viewcode said:

    @TSE @rcs1000
    Vanilla appears to be less shit now. Whatever the mods did, well done you

    Replacement hamster installed.
    Bloody hell. The Royal Navy has never had such funding!
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,268
    Roger said:

    Very good MEP on Ch 4 News making the case to go all guns blazing against Trump. Starmer's tough man stand lasted exactly a week. Even the Chinese are joining in. They also wont give an inch to Trump. I think Starmer should take note of public opinion

    You can take a personal view on the character of a soldier who doesn't go all guns blazing against the enemy, and tends to hide behind others.

    But you can't say he's an idiot for letting others take the lead. And it's more complex where it isn't just him personally on the line but everyone else.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,172
    Least surprising news ever

    "National security adviser Mike Waltz’s team regularly set up chats on Signal to coordinate official work on issues including Ukraine, China, Gaza, Middle East policy, Africa and Europe, according to four people who have been personally added to Signal chats.

    Two of the people said they were in or have direct knowledge of at least 20 such chats. All four said they saw instances of sensitive information being discussed.    "

    https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/02/waltzs-team-set-up-at-least-20-signal-group-chats-for-crises-across-the-world-00266845
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,492
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Fpt:

    Daveyboy1961 said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Andy_JS said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Post spring statement @Moreincommon_ VI sees Labour fall to our lowest score for them at 21%. Tories at 26% lead Reform by 1.

    🌳 CON 26% (+1)
    ➡️ REF UK 25% (+1)
    🌹 LAB 21% (-3)
    🔶 LIB DEM 13% (+1)
    🌍 GREEN 7% (-3)
    🟡 SNP 2% (-1)

    N =2,081 | Dates: 28 - 31/3 | Change w 24/3

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/1907323946090872979

    Maybe it really will be Kemi PM and Nigel deputy PM.
    The polls are remarkably stuck in a doldrums of Lab/Con/Ref all scoring twenty something, with veryu few polls outside the margin of error and the real figures, as far as they mean anythng, all being close together and as in Wiki's rolling chart.

    What is not easy to see is how any of the three can break away. SFAICS there are irremovable grounds for people disliking all of them. Lab, because they have done no magic and communicate terribly; Tories for reasons requiring no expansion, but added to by the continuing lack of calibre at the top; Reform because they are a toxic mixture of gormless, extreme, dangerous, factional and tainted by association with Trumpism.

    Following Sherlock's truism: 'Once you have eliminated the impossible....' etc then one conclusion arises as a possibility. At this distance from 2010-2015, the least tainted party by far is the LDs. Could the next year or two be their time in the sun. I have no sense or feeling this is the case; but I don't have any sense of possible rise about any of them.
    Let's be fair, the Lib Dems do not 'communicate terribly' they are a collection of noxious political opportunists who would sell their granny for a whiff of power and are wholly bought into the broken political consensus that has led the economy to the brink of bankruptcy and society to a rabble. They have nothing of value to say on the pressing issues of the day other than the highly dubious notion that 'we would do this better', an approach that the dawn of Starmer has already found to be empty and inadequate.
    I stopped reading after the first 3 words as you immediately contradicted yourself and your prejudices came to the fore.
    Yes. Which was 'fair' in the context of a post where Algakirk had let his prejudices about Reform and the Tories come to the fore.
    I think you are a little confused. Nobody joins the LDs if their motive is power. There are two other parties that provide much better opportunities.
    Nick Clegg certainly did and Davey could well be Kingmaker next time too
    That's a slightly different point, though.

    Saying you don't join the Lib Dems if your motive is power isn't the same as saying that they are never influential. It's saying that, if you're purely a careerist, there are better bets out there.

    For example, it's hardly fanciful to think that Nick Clegg could have been Deputy PM or a senior cabinet minister had he decided to join the Tories from the get go. Like him or not, he's a capable person and it isn't exactly flattering him to say he could've held a post recently held by Dominic Raab and Oliver Dowden.
    A party without careerists is a good thing. I would be more likely to vote for such a party.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,347
    Fairliered said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Fpt:

    Daveyboy1961 said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Andy_JS said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Post spring statement @Moreincommon_ VI sees Labour fall to our lowest score for them at 21%. Tories at 26% lead Reform by 1.

    🌳 CON 26% (+1)
    ➡️ REF UK 25% (+1)
    🌹 LAB 21% (-3)
    🔶 LIB DEM 13% (+1)
    🌍 GREEN 7% (-3)
    🟡 SNP 2% (-1)

    N =2,081 | Dates: 28 - 31/3 | Change w 24/3

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/1907323946090872979

    Maybe it really will be Kemi PM and Nigel deputy PM.
    The polls are remarkably stuck in a doldrums of Lab/Con/Ref all scoring twenty something, with veryu few polls outside the margin of error and the real figures, as far as they mean anythng, all being close together and as in Wiki's rolling chart.

    What is not easy to see is how any of the three can break away. SFAICS there are irremovable grounds for people disliking all of them. Lab, because they have done no magic and communicate terribly; Tories for reasons requiring no expansion, but added to by the continuing lack of calibre at the top; Reform because they are a toxic mixture of gormless, extreme, dangerous, factional and tainted by association with Trumpism.

    Following Sherlock's truism: 'Once you have eliminated the impossible....' etc then one conclusion arises as a possibility. At this distance from 2010-2015, the least tainted party by far is the LDs. Could the next year or two be their time in the sun. I have no sense or feeling this is the case; but I don't have any sense of possible rise about any of them.
    Let's be fair, the Lib Dems do not 'communicate terribly' they are a collection of noxious political opportunists who would sell their granny for a whiff of power and are wholly bought into the broken political consensus that has led the economy to the brink of bankruptcy and society to a rabble. They have nothing of value to say on the pressing issues of the day other than the highly dubious notion that 'we would do this better', an approach that the dawn of Starmer has already found to be empty and inadequate.
    I stopped reading after the first 3 words as you immediately contradicted yourself and your prejudices came to the fore.
    Yes. Which was 'fair' in the context of a post where Algakirk had let his prejudices about Reform and the Tories come to the fore.
    I think you are a little confused. Nobody joins the LDs if their motive is power. There are two other parties that provide much better opportunities.
    Nick Clegg certainly did and Davey could well be Kingmaker next time too
    That's a slightly different point, though.

    Saying you don't join the Lib Dems if your motive is power isn't the same as saying that they are never influential. It's saying that, if you're purely a careerist, there are better bets out there.

    For example, it's hardly fanciful to think that Nick Clegg could have been Deputy PM or a senior cabinet minister had he decided to join the Tories from the get go. Like him or not, he's a capable person and it isn't exactly flattering him to say he could've held a post recently held by Dominic Raab and Oliver Dowden.
    A party without careerists is a good thing. I would be more likely to vote for such a party.
    In theory it is, but there's a counterside to everything - if you have no careerists you probably have a lot of absolute cranks filling the space instead.

    They cannot all be selflessly motivated automatons who are also just plain normal.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,124
    Fairliered said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Fpt:

    Daveyboy1961 said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Andy_JS said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Post spring statement @Moreincommon_ VI sees Labour fall to our lowest score for them at 21%. Tories at 26% lead Reform by 1.

    🌳 CON 26% (+1)
    ➡️ REF UK 25% (+1)
    🌹 LAB 21% (-3)
    🔶 LIB DEM 13% (+1)
    🌍 GREEN 7% (-3)
    🟡 SNP 2% (-1)

    N =2,081 | Dates: 28 - 31/3 | Change w 24/3

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/1907323946090872979

    Maybe it really will be Kemi PM and Nigel deputy PM.
    The polls are remarkably stuck in a doldrums of Lab/Con/Ref all scoring twenty something, with veryu few polls outside the margin of error and the real figures, as far as they mean anythng, all being close together and as in Wiki's rolling chart.

    What is not easy to see is how any of the three can break away. SFAICS there are irremovable grounds for people disliking all of them. Lab, because they have done no magic and communicate terribly; Tories for reasons requiring no expansion, but added to by the continuing lack of calibre at the top; Reform because they are a toxic mixture of gormless, extreme, dangerous, factional and tainted by association with Trumpism.

    Following Sherlock's truism: 'Once you have eliminated the impossible....' etc then one conclusion arises as a possibility. At this distance from 2010-2015, the least tainted party by far is the LDs. Could the next year or two be their time in the sun. I have no sense or feeling this is the case; but I don't have any sense of possible rise about any of them.
    Let's be fair, the Lib Dems do not 'communicate terribly' they are a collection of noxious political opportunists who would sell their granny for a whiff of power and are wholly bought into the broken political consensus that has led the economy to the brink of bankruptcy and society to a rabble. They have nothing of value to say on the pressing issues of the day other than the highly dubious notion that 'we would do this better', an approach that the dawn of Starmer has already found to be empty and inadequate.
    I stopped reading after the first 3 words as you immediately contradicted yourself and your prejudices came to the fore.
    Yes. Which was 'fair' in the context of a post where Algakirk had let his prejudices about Reform and the Tories come to the fore.
    I think you are a little confused. Nobody joins the LDs if their motive is power. There are two other parties that provide much better opportunities.
    Nick Clegg certainly did and Davey could well be Kingmaker next time too
    That's a slightly different point, though.

    Saying you don't join the Lib Dems if your motive is power isn't the same as saying that they are never influential. It's saying that, if you're purely a careerist, there are better bets out there.

    For example, it's hardly fanciful to think that Nick Clegg could have been Deputy PM or a senior cabinet minister had he decided to join the Tories from the get go. Like him or not, he's a capable person and it isn't exactly flattering him to say he could've held a post recently held by Dominic Raab and Oliver Dowden.
    A party without careerists is a good thing. I would be more likely to vote for such a party.
    Labour under Corbyn and The Fukkers under Farage are hardly walking adverts for such parties.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,347
    Sean_F said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Roger said:

    Very good MEP on Ch 4 News making the case to go all guns blazing against Trump. Starmer's tough man stand lasted exactly a week. Even the Chinese are joining in. They also wont give an inch to Trump. I think Starmer should take note of public opinion

    Disagree; I think Starmer’s right to ‘wait and see’ rather than sounding off before he knows what’s planned.
    However I hope he knows what he’s going to say if it’s good, bad or whatever.
    Agreed. What’s the advantage to his shooting his mouth off?

    Disengaging from the USA is a years-long process.
    True, but the quickest route that can be managed is to be preferred. A change in administration, potentially, in 2028 would not erase the risk of what 50% of the country would get up to if in charge again.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,961
    Fairliered said:

    Sean_F said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Roger said:

    Very good MEP on Ch 4 News making the case to go all guns blazing against Trump. Starmer's tough man stand lasted exactly a week. Even the Chinese are joining in. They also wont give an inch to Trump. I think Starmer should take note of public opinion

    Disagree; I think Starmer’s right to ‘wait and see’ rather than sounding off before he knows what’s planned.
    However I hope he knows what he’s going to say if it’s good, bad or whatever.
    Agreed. What’s the advantage to his shooting his mouth off?

    Disengaging from the USA is a years-long process.
    Better to disengage quietly, with alternative plans being put in place, than behave like Trump, with big announcements that are not followed through.
    I think strategically and in particular in reference to defence equipment etc that is right. On tariffs I am not so sure. If the whole developed world responds in kind it is possible that even someone as stupid as Trump may work out this is not working. I would rather that we had coordinated with the Europeans than try to suck up to him.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,397
    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Fpt:

    Daveyboy1961 said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Andy_JS said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Post spring statement @Moreincommon_ VI sees Labour fall to our lowest score for them at 21%. Tories at 26% lead Reform by 1.

    🌳 CON 26% (+1)
    ➡️ REF UK 25% (+1)
    🌹 LAB 21% (-3)
    🔶 LIB DEM 13% (+1)
    🌍 GREEN 7% (-3)
    🟡 SNP 2% (-1)

    N =2,081 | Dates: 28 - 31/3 | Change w 24/3

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/1907323946090872979

    Maybe it really will be Kemi PM and Nigel deputy PM.
    The polls are remarkably stuck in a doldrums of Lab/Con/Ref all scoring twenty something, with veryu few polls outside the margin of error and the real figures, as far as they mean anythng, all being close together and as in Wiki's rolling chart.

    What is not easy to see is how any of the three can break away. SFAICS there are irremovable grounds for people disliking all of them. Lab, because they have done no magic and communicate terribly; Tories for reasons requiring no expansion, but added to by the continuing lack of calibre at the top; Reform because they are a toxic mixture of gormless, extreme, dangerous, factional and tainted by association with Trumpism.

    Following Sherlock's truism: 'Once you have eliminated the impossible....' etc then one conclusion arises as a possibility. At this distance from 2010-2015, the least tainted party by far is the LDs. Could the next year or two be their time in the sun. I have no sense or feeling this is the case; but I don't have any sense of possible rise about any of them.
    Let's be fair, the Lib Dems do not 'communicate terribly' they are a collection of noxious political opportunists who would sell their granny for a whiff of power and are wholly bought into the broken political consensus that has led the economy to the brink of bankruptcy and society to a rabble. They have nothing of value to say on the pressing issues of the day other than the highly dubious notion that 'we would do this better', an approach that the dawn of Starmer has already found to be empty and inadequate.
    I stopped reading after the first 3 words as you immediately contradicted yourself and your prejudices came to the fore.
    Yes. Which was 'fair' in the context of a post where Algakirk had let his prejudices about Reform and the Tories come to the fore.
    I think you are a little confused. Nobody joins the LDs if their motive is power. There are two other parties that provide much better opportunities.
    Nick Clegg certainly did and Davey could well be Kingmaker next time too
    The LDs are nuts. So far as I can work out their political aims are to be a bunch of female school-teacherish types led by a man. There's nothing wrong with female, there's only a bit to baffle about school teachers, and there's nothing wrong with being a man. But...

    It really seems like a party planning surrender before there's even the slightest of threat of fisticuffs.
    I literally do not understand a word of this...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,961
    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Roger said:

    Very good MEP on Ch 4 News making the case to go all guns blazing against Trump. Starmer's tough man stand lasted exactly a week. Even the Chinese are joining in. They also wont give an inch to Trump. I think Starmer should take note of public opinion

    Disagree; I think Starmer’s right to ‘wait and see’ rather than sounding off before he knows what’s planned.
    However I hope he knows what he’s going to say if it’s good, bad or whatever.
    Agreed. What’s the advantage to his shooting his mouth off?

    Disengaging from the USA is a years-long process.
    True, but the quickest route that can be managed is to be preferred. A change in administration, potentially, in 2028 would not erase the risk of what 50% of the country would get up to if in charge again.
    That really is the problem. It’s not just Trump. 50% of Americans are willing to vote for idiots. They can’t be a reliable ally until they stop this.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,369
    Cookie said:

    Fishing said:

    Leon said:

    Samarkand, and the living is easy



    Samarkand is nice but I preferred Bokhara myself.

    I thought the old town was rather mellower.

    I think Uzbekistan is very underrated as a destination myself. You've reminded me I need to get back there.
    I've always had a yen to visit Uzbekistan, in a way that I haven't about any other Islamic country.
    A yen won't get you very far and I doubt they accept Japanese money anyway.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,782
    edited April 2
    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Fpt:

    Daveyboy1961 said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Andy_JS said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Post spring statement @Moreincommon_ VI sees Labour fall to our lowest score for them at 21%. Tories at 26% lead Reform by 1.

    🌳 CON 26% (+1)
    ➡️ REF UK 25% (+1)
    🌹 LAB 21% (-3)
    🔶 LIB DEM 13% (+1)
    🌍 GREEN 7% (-3)
    🟡 SNP 2% (-1)

    N =2,081 | Dates: 28 - 31/3 | Change w 24/3

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/1907323946090872979

    Maybe it really will be Kemi PM and Nigel deputy PM.
    The polls are remarkably stuck in a doldrums of Lab/Con/Ref all scoring twenty something, with veryu few polls outside the margin of error and the real figures, as far as they mean anythng, all being close together and as in Wiki's rolling chart.

    What is not easy to see is how any of the three can break away. SFAICS there are irremovable grounds for people disliking all of them. Lab, because they have done no magic and communicate terribly; Tories for reasons requiring no expansion, but added to by the continuing lack of calibre at the top; Reform because they are a toxic mixture of gormless, extreme, dangerous, factional and tainted by association with Trumpism.

    Following Sherlock's truism: 'Once you have eliminated the impossible....' etc then one conclusion arises as a possibility. At this distance from 2010-2015, the least tainted party by far is the LDs. Could the next year or two be their time in the sun. I have no sense or feeling this is the case; but I don't have any sense of possible rise about any of them.
    Let's be fair, the Lib Dems do not 'communicate terribly' they are a collection of noxious political opportunists who would sell their granny for a whiff of power and are wholly bought into the broken political consensus that has led the economy to the brink of bankruptcy and society to a rabble. They have nothing of value to say on the pressing issues of the day other than the highly dubious notion that 'we would do this better', an approach that the dawn of Starmer has already found to be empty and inadequate.
    I stopped reading after the first 3 words as you immediately contradicted yourself and your prejudices came to the fore.
    Yes. Which was 'fair' in the context of a post where Algakirk had let his prejudices about Reform and the Tories come to the fore.
    I think you are a little confused. Nobody joins the LDs if their motive is power. There are two other parties that provide much better opportunities.
    Nick Clegg certainly did and Davey could well be Kingmaker next time too
    The LDs are nuts. So far as I can work out their political aims are to be a bunch of female school-teacherish types led by a man. There's nothing wrong with female, there's only a bit to baffle about school teachers, and there's nothing wrong with being a man. But...

    It really seems like a party planning surrender before there's even the slightest of threat of fisticuffs.
    sounds more of a you problem than a them problem tbh
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,216
    This from John Rentoul, on Twitter, if true is rather damning of Badenoch and her team. If true unless they get their act together she’s toast.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,492
    ydoethur said:

    Fairliered said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Fpt:

    Daveyboy1961 said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Andy_JS said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Post spring statement @Moreincommon_ VI sees Labour fall to our lowest score for them at 21%. Tories at 26% lead Reform by 1.

    🌳 CON 26% (+1)
    ➡️ REF UK 25% (+1)
    🌹 LAB 21% (-3)
    🔶 LIB DEM 13% (+1)
    🌍 GREEN 7% (-3)
    🟡 SNP 2% (-1)

    N =2,081 | Dates: 28 - 31/3 | Change w 24/3

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/1907323946090872979

    Maybe it really will be Kemi PM and Nigel deputy PM.
    The polls are remarkably stuck in a doldrums of Lab/Con/Ref all scoring twenty something, with veryu few polls outside the margin of error and the real figures, as far as they mean anythng, all being close together and as in Wiki's rolling chart.

    What is not easy to see is how any of the three can break away. SFAICS there are irremovable grounds for people disliking all of them. Lab, because they have done no magic and communicate terribly; Tories for reasons requiring no expansion, but added to by the continuing lack of calibre at the top; Reform because they are a toxic mixture of gormless, extreme, dangerous, factional and tainted by association with Trumpism.

    Following Sherlock's truism: 'Once you have eliminated the impossible....' etc then one conclusion arises as a possibility. At this distance from 2010-2015, the least tainted party by far is the LDs. Could the next year or two be their time in the sun. I have no sense or feeling this is the case; but I don't have any sense of possible rise about any of them.
    Let's be fair, the Lib Dems do not 'communicate terribly' they are a collection of noxious political opportunists who would sell their granny for a whiff of power and are wholly bought into the broken political consensus that has led the economy to the brink of bankruptcy and society to a rabble. They have nothing of value to say on the pressing issues of the day other than the highly dubious notion that 'we would do this better', an approach that the dawn of Starmer has already found to be empty and inadequate.
    I stopped reading after the first 3 words as you immediately contradicted yourself and your prejudices came to the fore.
    Yes. Which was 'fair' in the context of a post where Algakirk had let his prejudices about Reform and the Tories come to the fore.
    I think you are a little confused. Nobody joins the LDs if their motive is power. There are two other parties that provide much better opportunities.
    Nick Clegg certainly did and Davey could well be Kingmaker next time too
    That's a slightly different point, though.

    Saying you don't join the Lib Dems if your motive is power isn't the same as saying that they are never influential. It's saying that, if you're purely a careerist, there are better bets out there.

    For example, it's hardly fanciful to think that Nick Clegg could have been Deputy PM or a senior cabinet minister had he decided to join the Tories from the get go. Like him or not, he's a capable person and it isn't exactly flattering him to say he could've held a post recently held by Dominic Raab and Oliver Dowden.
    A party without careerists is a good thing. I would be more likely to vote for such a party.
    Labour under Corbyn and The Fukkers under Farage are hardly walking adverts for such parties.
    On the other hand, the current Labour and SNP governments, and the previous Conservative government have plenty of careerists, which is why they are all out of touch with their voters.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,782
    Taz said:

    This from John Rentoul, on Twitter, if true is rather damning of Badenoch and her team. If true unless they get their act together she’s toast.

    loving that detail, thank you very much
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,161
    Tres said:

    Taz said:

    This from John Rentoul, on Twitter, if true is rather damning of Badenoch and her team. If true unless they get their act together she’s toast.

    loving that detail, thank you very much
    I assume it's this one.

    https://x.com/JohnRentoul/status/1907495682904125449
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,400
    williamglenn said:

    rcs1000 said:

    williamglenn said:

    Nigelb said:

    Hello

    and goodbye to Elon, apparently.

    A breath of fresh air for somebody to aim to make their role redundant by succeeding in it.
    I'm happy to bet that the US Federal deficit will be larger post DOGE cuts than before if you like.
    Musk wasn't responsible for the income side, so you can't hold the deficit against him.
    He gutted the IRS, who collect the money, so he has some responsibility for the income side. Guess what? A much smaller IRS has collected less income.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,216
    edited April 2
    According to Ed Conway of SKY the tariffs are going to be in three bands, 10, 15 and 20% and country/industry dependent.

    https://x.com/mrmbrown/status/1907473601978314962?s=61
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,981
    williamglenn said:

    Nigelb said:

    Hello

    and goodbye to Elon, apparently.

    A breath of fresh air for somebody to aim to make their role redundant by succeeding in it.
    You reckon?
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,216
    Tres said:

    Taz said:

    This from John Rentoul, on Twitter, if true is rather damning of Badenoch and her team. If true unless they get their act together she’s toast.

    loving that detail, thank you very much
    Oh FFS, what a forgetful twit I am 😂😂😂😂
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,297
    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    bondegezou said:

    Musk always said he was only going to stay for a certain period, so I’m not certain this is Musk getting the boot.

    Indeed: Musk himself has said that he expects to be able to step back from DOGE (having achieved all his goals) at the end of May.
    For today it’s messed up my sell position on Tesla, for sure. But I don’t think Musk and Tesla are going to be able to disassociate themselves so easily from Trump’s MAGA idiocy. Their car is going to be seen as the Swasticar for some time yet. So I am holding my position expecting further falls in Tesla once investors see the penny dropping.
    I agree:

    The Tesla brand is forever associated with Elon Musk and Donald Trump. And the irony is that most people who support Donald Trump hate electric vehicles.
    Yep. The AfD were very strongly anti-Tesla until about 5 minutes ago.

    I posted the AfD poster (from a previous election) with a picture of a burning Tesla and the line 'Advent, Advent ein Tesla brennt'

    The AfD also posted this on Facebook:

    "Advent, Advent ein Tesla brennt.
    Waren es erst eins, dann zwei, drei dann vier,
    bald steht das Christkind vor der Tür.
    Es bringt Dir einen modernen Diesel mit,
    so brauchst Du weder Elektro noch Hybrid.
    Du musst nicht vor Ladestationen warten.
    Tankst in 5 Minuten und kannst wieder starten.
    Auch die Diesel Reichweite ist famos,
    die Fahrstrecke sogar riesengroß.
    Der Diesel ist ein Saubermann,
    wovon ein E-Mobil nur träumen kann.
    Diesel High-Tech aus Germany
    oder E-Vehikel aus der US Prärie?
    Wer denken kann für den ist klar,
    ein Diesel von hier ist wunderbar.
    Lange schallts in Deutschland noch,
    unsere Diesel sollen leben hoch!"
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,216
    Andy_JS said:

    Tres said:

    Taz said:

    This from John Rentoul, on Twitter, if true is rather damning of Badenoch and her team. If true unless they get their act together she’s toast.

    loving that detail, thank you very much
    I assume it's this one.

    https://x.com/JohnRentoul/status/1907495682904125449
    You assume correctly !
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,090
    Cookie said:

    Fishing said:

    Leon said:

    Samarkand, and the living is easy



    Samarkand is nice but I preferred Bokhara myself.

    I thought the old town was rather mellower.

    I think Uzbekistan is very underrated as a destination myself. You've reminded me I need to get back there.
    I've always had a yen to visit Uzbekistan, in a way that I haven't about any other Islamic country.
    Yen isn't widely accepted: you'll need a soʻm or two instead.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,400
    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Tres said:

    Taz said:

    This from John Rentoul, on Twitter, if true is rather damning of Badenoch and her team. If true unless they get their act together she’s toast.

    loving that detail, thank you very much
    I assume it's this one.

    https://x.com/JohnRentoul/status/1907495682904125449
    You assume correctly !
    If the Conservative Party is incapable of picking a leader who lasts a full parliamentary term (as with the 4 before Badenoch), why should the public trust them with any other decisions?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,886
    David Moyes football genius.
    Anfield quiet at halftime.
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