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The Rachel effect? – politicalbetting.com

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  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,075
    Andy_JS said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Robert Peston
    @Peston

    Starmer has organised his military coalition of “willing” nations to defend Ukraine against Putin in the event of a peace deal. My conversations with senior government officials, business leaders and economists reveal a hunger for Starmer - or Canada’s Carney, or any elected leader of a sizeable democratic nation - to organise an “economic coalition of the willing”, to champion free trade against Trump and his tariffs.

    The concept, half of which I have explained before, is to counter Trump’s bullying trade tactics - tomorrow’s announcement by him of tariffs on all imports to America - by threatening collectively to impose tariffs on America’s exports double or treble whatever his tariff rates turn out to be.

    This in itself would terrify American manufacturers and farmers, if it was a collective threat by the UK, Canada, the EU, Switzerland, Japan, South Korea, Mexico and Australia, inter alia.

    If simultaneously these countries and the EU also reduced tariffs on trade between themselves - to facilitate less trade friction in an economic area significantly greater than that of the US - the potential damage to American domiciled companies and interests would be even more significant.

    The world would then divide between a newly thriving economic area of pretty much all developed democracies apart from the US - the G7 minus one, as it were - and a protectionist and potentially sclerotic America.

    Obviously this would look like the mother of all trade wars. Markets might in the short term take serious fright.

    But the current response to Trump - each nation or trading region seeking individually to buy or warn Trump off - is massively sub optimal. It allows Trump to divide and rule.

    The best chance of him backing down would come if the combined voice of American businesses and banks were a howl of pain at being locked out of the world’s richest economies.

    In Trump’s re-ordered multi-polar world where might is right, nations like the UK and even huge economies like the EU’s single market lack the clout individually to face him down.

    As I said on ITV’s News at Ten last night, bullies don’t give up once they’ve taken one kid’s dinner money. They surrender when that kid makes common cause with the rest of the school.

    https://x.com/Peston/status/1907100050263560302

    Trump is now saying, as are others in the US and some financial commentators, that these are the starting point for a negotiation to get rebalanced global trade

    Given the US, and the west in general, helped that by seeking low cost country sourcing, they’re trying to solve a problem they caused.

    Problem is, even if they get a deal, how do they know this lunatic will stick to it.

    A bigger question is what would the deal look like. Reality is most Americans aren't going to be happy paying the market price for items manufactured in the USA rather than imported from China.
    MAGA have a simple answer - just go back to 1955. America rules the world. No gays. No latinos. Jim Crow. Always sunny and a BBQ on in the garden where the manly men cook American steaks for their neighbours whilst their women concentrate on
    looking pretty.

    America used to build everything and it can do again. What’s more, once the might of America is brought then these foreigners will pay for it by means of compensation for ripping off America all this time.

    I know, it’s laughable. But You've got to remember that these are just simple farmers. These are people of the land. The common clay of the new West. You know... morons.
    The good things about 1955 without the bad things about 1955 sounds okay to me. Is that possible?
    The problem is that in 1955, only the developed world knew how to make things. That meant that we got to import cheap raw materials, and to export expensive manufactured ones.

    Now that "secret" has been learned by people across the world; so it's much harder for us to earn substantially more than someone doing exactly the same job in Delhi or Dhaka or wherever.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,075
    rcs1000 said:

    Today is US election day!

    We've had two Florida Congressional Special elections, which both went Republican as expected, albeit by dramatically smaller margins than in the 2024 Presidential election. Both districts, the 1st and the 6th, were won by 33-34 points back in November. This time around, the gaps were much smaller: 15 and 14 points respectively. (Margins that suggest that, had Elise Stefanik stepped down, then the race there would have been very close indeed.)

    Also up is the Wisconsin Supreme Court election, where Elon has spent an insane amount of money trying to ensure that conservative Brad Schimel beats out liberal Susan Crawford. With 6% in, it's 50:50. My gut (and it's just a gut) is that Susan Crawford wins fairly comfortably.

    With 13% in, Susan Crawford is 3.5 points ahead, with the caveat that Madison (home of the University of Wisconsin and the most liberal part of the State) has counted slightly more than average. (Albeit no votes at all are in from Milwaukee.)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,075
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Today is US election day!

    We've had two Florida Congressional Special elections, which both went Republican as expected, albeit by dramatically smaller margins than in the 2024 Presidential election. Both districts, the 1st and the 6th, were won by 33-34 points back in November. This time around, the gaps were much smaller: 15 and 14 points respectively. (Margins that suggest that, had Elise Stefanik stepped down, then the race there would have been very close indeed.)

    Also up is the Wisconsin Supreme Court election, where Elon has spent an insane amount of money trying to ensure that conservative Brad Schimel beats out liberal Susan Crawford. With 6% in, it's 50:50. My gut (and it's just a gut) is that Susan Crawford wins fairly comfortably.

    With 13% in, Susan Crawford is 3.5 points ahead, with the caveat that Madison (home of the University of Wisconsin and the most liberal part of the State) has counted slightly more than average. (Albeit no votes at all are in from Milwaukee.)
    Big vote drop from Madison (now 30% counted) pushes the Susan Crawford lead up to close to 10 percentage points with 15.5% counted.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,075
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Today is US election day!

    We've had two Florida Congressional Special elections, which both went Republican as expected, albeit by dramatically smaller margins than in the 2024 Presidential election. Both districts, the 1st and the 6th, were won by 33-34 points back in November. This time around, the gaps were much smaller: 15 and 14 points respectively. (Margins that suggest that, had Elise Stefanik stepped down, then the race there would have been very close indeed.)

    Also up is the Wisconsin Supreme Court election, where Elon has spent an insane amount of money trying to ensure that conservative Brad Schimel beats out liberal Susan Crawford. With 6% in, it's 50:50. My gut (and it's just a gut) is that Susan Crawford wins fairly comfortably.

    With 13% in, Susan Crawford is 3.5 points ahead, with the caveat that Madison (home of the University of Wisconsin and the most liberal part of the State) has counted slightly more than average. (Albeit no votes at all are in from Milwaukee.)
    Big vote drop from Madison (now 30% counted) pushes the Susan Crawford lead up to close to 10 percentage points with 15.5% counted.
    Based on early numbers, it looks like a number of counties that voted narrowly for Trump in 2024 are voting Crawford now: i.e. Pierce, Ozaukee.

    30% counted, and Crawford is 16.5 points clear of Schimel.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,767
    CNN Projection: Crawford wins.

    Crawford leads 55-45 with 78% counted.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,657
    MikeL said:

    CNN Projection: Crawford wins.

    Crawford leads 55-45 with 78% counted.



    :)
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,849
    This weekend's Liv Golf tournament will be at the Trump National Doral course. Will President Trump attend and if so, will the next President also be there – Tiger Woods?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,075
    I'm sorry to see Val Kilmer died. Fun fact: he was at school with Kevin Spacey.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,075
    Have we covered this story yet?


  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,996
    Elon just demonstrated the limits of buying an election.
    I guess they'll just have to brush up their plans for an outright fix, now.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,293
    MikeL said:

    CNN Projection: Crawford wins.

    Crawford leads 55-45 with 78% counted.

    What so Musk bribing voters to show up at a rally to watch him jump around with a big cheese on his head wasn't enough to win it?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,293
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Robert Peston
    @Peston

    Starmer has organised his military coalition of “willing” nations to defend Ukraine against Putin in the event of a peace deal. My conversations with senior government officials, business leaders and economists reveal a hunger for Starmer - or Canada’s Carney, or any elected leader of a sizeable democratic nation - to organise an “economic coalition of the willing”, to champion free trade against Trump and his tariffs.

    The concept, half of which I have explained before, is to counter Trump’s bullying trade tactics - tomorrow’s announcement by him of tariffs on all imports to America - by threatening collectively to impose tariffs on America’s exports double or treble whatever his tariff rates turn out to be.

    This in itself would terrify American manufacturers and farmers, if it was a collective threat by the UK, Canada, the EU, Switzerland, Japan, South Korea, Mexico and Australia, inter alia.

    If simultaneously these countries and the EU also reduced tariffs on trade between themselves - to facilitate less trade friction in an economic area significantly greater than that of the US - the potential damage to American domiciled companies and interests would be even more significant.

    The world would then divide between a newly thriving economic area of pretty much all developed democracies apart from the US - the G7 minus one, as it were - and a protectionist and potentially sclerotic America.

    Obviously this would look like the mother of all trade wars. Markets might in the short term take serious fright.

    But the current response to Trump - each nation or trading region seeking individually to buy or warn Trump off - is massively sub optimal. It allows Trump to divide and rule.

    The best chance of him backing down would come if the combined voice of American businesses and banks were a howl of pain at being locked out of the world’s richest economies.

    In Trump’s re-ordered multi-polar world where might is right, nations like the UK and even huge economies like the EU’s single market lack the clout individually to face him down.

    As I said on ITV’s News at Ten last night, bullies don’t give up once they’ve taken one kid’s dinner money. They surrender when that kid makes common cause with the rest of the school.

    https://x.com/Peston/status/1907100050263560302

    Trump is now saying, as are others in the US and some financial commentators, that these are the starting point for a negotiation to get rebalanced global trade

    Given the US, and the west in general, helped that by seeking low cost country sourcing, they’re trying to solve a problem they caused.

    Problem is, even if they get a deal, how do they know this lunatic will stick to it.

    A bigger question is what would the deal look like. Reality is most Americans aren't going to be happy paying the market price for items manufactured in the USA rather than imported from China.
    That's even if they could find a non-immigrant workforce for the new low value added factories which would be required.

    Highly paid, highly skilled manufacturing jobs are in demand. Low paid, low skilled ones less so.
    Yes but that is exactly the attitude which led to Trump's win, Sanders making inroads in Democratic primaries, Brexit and Corbyn and Farage, the rise of Le Pen and Melenchon, the AfD etc especially in old industrial areas. Those areas used to have manufacturing jobs with reasonable pay and now don't due to cheap imports from the likes of China as much as advanced robotics replacing human labour. Across much of the developed world now the mood from voters, especially white working class voters, is protectionist, anti globalist and anti immigrant.

    Even Biden and the EU imposed some tariffs on Chinese imports
    In those areas you used to be able to leave school and get a reasonably paid job in a local factory without an engineering degree, now you can't. Instead as a non graduate who left school without higher education you often end up in a warehouse or as a delivery or taxi driver or on a building site if you aren't one of the lucky few who gets a job as a plumber or electrician and a declining industrial base also means fewer jobs in local shops, restaurants, pubs and hotels too outside of the wealthiest services led cities like financial services dominated London or tech heavy Cambridge
    You're babbling about a fantasy world which never existed.

    Those 'reasonably paid jobs' were in actuality low paid, hard work, often in dirty, dangerous conditions. And they did not give a standard of living anyone either then or now would aspire to.

    Which is why people sought to develop their skills so that they could get better jobs and improve their lives.

    Anyone who currently is unable to work successfully in a modern factory or warehouse or construction site would not have lasted a week in a factory of two generations ago.
    Actually most factory work for those with few educational qualifications paid rather better than what they have now, certainly compared to a warehouse or construction site (as you previously said most factory work now is at highly skilled level only).

    You talk about people who developed their skills to get better jobs but they are mainly the graduates who voted Remain, voted for Harris, for Macron, for Starmer, for the SPD etc.

    They are not the white working class who voted for Brexit, Farage, Trump, Le Pen, the AfD etc
    The SPD did better with non-graduates than graduates.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,334

    Risky, given his frequent trips to the US...



    Nigel Farage MP

    @Nigel_Farage
    ·
    9h
    Just got my first tattoo! 🔥

    https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1907024118089724029

    Presumably an April Fool prank, but the comments below are overwhelmingly hostile and snide. Is the Farage magic
    fading fast?
    Farage has always been pretty Marmite, but he does seem to be getting more of the "love" for Brexit these days. Nevertheless the polls suggest RefUK will do fairly well in the locals, so it seems the vituperation is more a function of greater polarisation than an Emperor's new clothes moment... For now
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,060
    rcs1000 said:

    I'm sorry to see Val Kilmer died. Fun fact: he was at school with Kevin Spacey.

    Makes you feel old - even though he had a good few years on you and I he seems more “of our time” than a lot of actors who die from things other than early overdoses/accidents/self offing.

    He actually was a v good comic actor - his playing Gay Perry in Kiss Kiss, Bang Bang was a surprise at its funny campness and of course most people first saw him in Top Secret.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,293
    rcs1000 said:

    Have we covered this story yet?


    Weird kind of April Fool.

    I liked this one better

    https://www.huerth.de/pressearchiv-2025/2025-04-01-Tesla.php

    The city of Hürth has issued a general order banning Tesla vehicles from parking throughout the city. This is due to significant data protection concerns related to the so-called "Sentry Mode," in which parked Tesla vehicles film their surroundings using cameras.

    According to a recent assessment by the German Association of Consumer Organizations (vzbv), this feature violates current data protection regulations because passersby are recorded without their knowledge or consent. State data protection officers also report receiving an increasing number of complaints about Tesla vehicles, and initial legal proceedings against Tesla owners are being considered, particularly due to the activated guard mode.

    "We cannot allow Hürth residents to be filmed unnoticed on public streets and squares. The city of Hürth has therefore decided to take decisive action in this regard," explains Mayor Dirk Breuer. "In doing so, we are simultaneously sending a message against the increasing surveillance mania of international tech corporations and the erosion of data protection rights, as is currently being driven forward, particularly in the USA, under Elon Musk. Hürth clearly opposes this development and defends the fundamental right to privacy of our citizens."

    The general order will take effect on April 1, 2025. From this date, Tesla vehicles will no longer be allowed to be parked on public streets within the city. The Public Order Office will be intensified in the coming days to enforce these regulations. Violations of the ban will be punishable by a fine of up to €1,500.



    At least I think it was an April fool
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,245
    Nigelb said:

    Elon just demonstrated the limits of buying an election.
    I guess they'll just have to brush up their plans for an outright fix, now.

    It might put some spine into Republicans afraid of being "primaried" by his money. Those on the wrong end of Musk's money have a "side of the angels" bonus with the voters.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,195

    Nigelb said:

    Elon just demonstrated the limits of buying an election.
    I guess they'll just have to brush up their plans for an outright fix, now.

    It might put some spine into Republicans afraid of being "primaried" by his money. Those on the wrong end of Musk's money have a "side of the angels" bonus with the voters.
    Even better than that:

    With 95% of the vote in, Elon Musk's Supreme Court candidate in Wisconsin is running 4% behind the other statewide candidate.

    His endorsement cost his candidate tens of thousands of votes--even though he spent $25 million on the race.

    Incredible work from the Efficiency Guy.


    https://bsky.app/profile/maxberger.bsky.social/post/3llsk53k5ss2n
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,849
    kamski said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Have we covered this story yet?


    Weird kind of April Fool.

    I liked this one better

    https://www.huerth.de/pressearchiv-2025/2025-04-01-Tesla.php

    The city of Hürth has issued a general order banning Tesla vehicles from parking throughout the city. This is due to significant data protection concerns related to the so-called "Sentry Mode," in which parked Tesla vehicles film their surroundings using cameras.

    According to a recent assessment by the German Association of Consumer Organizations (vzbv), this feature violates current data protection regulations because passersby are recorded without their knowledge or consent. State data protection officers also report receiving an increasing number of complaints about Tesla vehicles, and initial legal proceedings against Tesla owners are being considered, particularly due to the activated guard mode.

    "We cannot allow Hürth residents to be filmed unnoticed on public streets and squares. The city of Hürth has therefore decided to take decisive action in this regard," explains Mayor Dirk Breuer. "In doing so, we are simultaneously sending a message against the increasing surveillance mania of international tech corporations and the erosion of data protection rights, as is currently being driven forward, particularly in the USA, under Elon Musk. Hürth clearly opposes this development and defends the fundamental right to privacy of our citizens."

    The general order will take effect on April 1, 2025. From this date, Tesla vehicles will no longer be allowed to be parked on public streets within the city. The Public Order Office will be intensified in the coming days to enforce these regulations. Violations of the ban will be punishable by a fine of up to €1,500.



    At least I think it was an April fool
    The part that is definitely not an April Fool is the huge data grab by Tesla, and for that matter all the other tech bros.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,120
    rcs1000 said:

    Woah...

    Big vanilla changes, and (as always) they didn't tell us in advance

    Who on earth did these updates? They look like a not overbright 14 year old did the coding and forgot about things like 'functionality' and 'aesthetics.'
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,002
    Happy Liberation Day everyone.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,195
    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Woah...

    Big vanilla changes, and (as always) they didn't tell us in advance

    Who on earth did these updates? They look like a not overbright 14 year old did the coding and forgot about things like 'functionality' and 'aesthetics.'
    And any not overbright 14 year old doing poor coding ought to be working for the Doge of DOGE.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,395
    Good morning, everyone.

    Yeah, the new Vanilla look made me think something had gone slightly wrong.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,621

    Good morning, everyone.

    Yeah, the new Vanilla look made me think something had gone slightly wrong.

    It looks the same to me?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,996

    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Woah...

    Big vanilla changes, and (as always) they didn't tell us in advance

    Who on earth did these updates? They look like a not overbright 14 year old did the coding and forgot about things like 'functionality' and 'aesthetics.'
    And any not overbright 14 year old doing poor coding ought to be working for the Doge of DOGE.
    Your saying it's a Big Ballsup ?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,549

    Good morning, everyone.

    Yeah, the new Vanilla look made me think something had gone slightly wrong.

    It looks the same to me?
    Me too, on both addresses.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,120
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Woah...

    Big vanilla changes, and (as always) they didn't tell us in advance

    Who on earth did these updates? They look like a not overbright 14 year old did the coding and forgot about things like 'functionality' and 'aesthetics.'
    And any not overbright 14 year old doing poor coding ought to be working for the Doge of DOGE.
    You're saying it's a Big Ballsup ?
    I don't think Musk is big in that area, and according to reports he can't get anything up now.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,120

    Good morning, everyone.

    Yeah, the new Vanilla look made me think something had gone slightly wrong.

    It looks the same to me?
    Mobile site is unchanged.

    The desktop, however...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,096
    Just had a gander at the accounts of the collapsed rebel energy. There's no way on god's green earth any energy supplier should be able to submit unaudited abridged accounts even if they are technically a small company, something which should be a red flag when you're a company with 80,000 customers generating revenue of roughly £1800 a customer itself. It's not the whole solution but the accounts format required to be uploaded for a small family plumbing firm should not apply to any ⚡ supplier
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,886
    It's got a different font.
    And "higher logic" above vanilla heading.
    Whatever the bollocks that's supposed to mean.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,096
    (And lack of auditing requirements/Income statement)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,996
    What's going on in Hungary ?

    Unbelievable scenes from Hungary 🇭🇺
    The anti Orban-regime protesters shouting:

    "Russians fuck off"

    and forced the police to withdraw and like so, reclaimed the bridge

    https://x.com/SzabadonMagyar/status/1907144966507286827
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,866
    edited April 2
    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Morons. Dangerous morons...

    @carlquintanilla.bsky.social‬

    (WaPo) - Members of President Donald Trump’s National Security Council, including .. Michael Waltz, have conducted government business over personal Gmail accounts, according to documents reviewed by The Washington Post and interviews w/ three U.S. officials.

    https://bsky.app/profile/carlquintanilla.bsky.social/post/3llrmdjt5xk2g

    So it's not even a private mail server like Hilary Clinton but a mailbox that google reads to work out what adverts to show alongside the emails.
    Email is sent, unencrypted over a pretty random route.

    So it can end up going through *and being recorded* by a large number of servers. Who may be owned/controlled by the mad or the bad.

    It is less secure than sending a postcard.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,959

    Happy Liberation Day everyone.

    Not for Brits though. Our trade minister decided that the continued suck up was the plan. Not a good call I fear.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,440

    NEW THREAD

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,959
    dixiedean said:

    It's got a different font.
    And "higher logic" above vanilla heading.
    Whatever the bollocks that's supposed to mean.

    Maybe its an instruction regarding the quality of our posts? If so, I am probably in trouble already.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,996
    boulay said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I'm sorry to see Val Kilmer died. Fun fact: he was at school with Kevin Spacey.

    Makes you feel old - even though he had a good few years on you and I he seems more “of our time” than a lot of actors who die from things other than early overdoses/accidents/self offing.

    He actually was a v good comic actor - his playing Gay Perry in Kiss Kiss, Bang Bang was a surprise at its funny campness and of course most people first saw him in Top Secret.
    He was actually a very good actor indeed.

    See, for example, his performance in Tombstone. It's a fairly average Hollywood flic, but he steals the entire movie.

    He made some poor choices, but he was incredibly talented.

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