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CAN I REMIND CONTRIBUTORS TO THE SITE THAT THERE IS TO BE NO SPECULATION ABOUT THE No 10 MAIL ON SUNDAY STORY

THANK YOU

OldKingCole said:

Do these polls not underline the fact that a "rebranding" is necessary for the LibDems, and that requires the departure of Nick Clegg, and for Vince Cable to make a significant mark as Business Secretary over something like financial probity in the City.

Maybe the Lib Dems should rebrand as the UK Liberal Party or UKLP?

That would put the wind up Gran'dads Army. "They don't like it u'pem", you know.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. K, are you suggesting that Farage = Hannibal?

I can see the similarities between Hannibal son of Barca and Farage.

Both vastly overrated by their supporters because of a few minor victories earlier on in their careers and on course for a major ass whooping in the war.

And on that note I'm back off to bed.

I can't believe I got up at 6.30 on a Sunday Morning to a write up a PB thread.

Farage has yet to enjoy a victory comparable with Saguntum, Trebia, Trasimene or Cannae (as yet).

Can't comment on Zukov. Presumably that's WWII?

Mr. K, victory in the euro-elections would be significant, but not too big a surprise. 20+ Commons seats in the next election would be far more impressive/surprising.

[For the record, Cannae is commonly considered the greatest battlefield victory in history. Hannibal was significantly outnumbered, but using a perfect strategy almost entirely annihilated the enemy. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hannibal#Battle_of_Cannae]

A pub interview with Farage ;

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/you/article-2332184/Introducing-Nigel-Farage-Ukip-leader-whos-charming-ladies-.html?ito=feeds-newsxml

MikeK said:

david_kendrick1 said:

O/T. On Friday, I attended a UKIP PPC assessment meeting. We were told that we would have three different, one-to-one meetings with 3 different assessors. To one, we had to give three 2 minute speeches. One was to be the closing speech to a hustings, the second on a topic on our choice, and the third from 'cold', with three minutes to prepare.

The second meeting was where we were asked tough questions on politics in general, and UKIP policies in particular. The third was with a 'journalist', firstly posing from the press, secondly from local radio and thirdly acting as an interviewer on national TV.

I passed. Now, I am entitled to apply to any seat advertised.

Although there was an attractive element of 'shoestring' about the operation (it took place in UKIP central, Ramsey, and we were not told of the venue until we arrived), it is certainly a quantum leap improvement on the 2010 GE.

Good luck david! At my first meeting of my local branch, they asked me if I would stand for councillor in next years local elections. I told them that I must decline as at 80, which I will be next year, I feel I would be too old.

Mike

Why not call yourself Hannibal and apply for the Chair of 'Young Independence'?

Just don't mention the elephants.

AveryLP said:

david_kendrick1 said:

David

Surely all you had to do was claim you were an Old Alleynian and prove it by misplacing an apostrophe.

What is it with political parties these days?

I was, quite properly, asked no questions about my education. How can your education be relevant, when you are over 30?

Farage has been accused of being a 'provincial stockbroker from a minor public school'. I think the most interesting word there is 'provincial' (and yet there has been much more discussion on schooling). We are accused of not bieng London centric? We plead guilty. The last election in which UKIP did really poorly was the London mayoral elections. Not every voter believes that our leader has to be part of the metropolitan elite.

JohnO said:

david_kendrick1 said:

O/T. On Friday, I attended a UKIP PPC assessment meeting. We were told that we would have three different, one-to-one meetings with 3 different assessors. To one, we had to give three 2 minute speeches. One was to be the closing speech to a hustings, the second on a topic on our choice, and the third from 'cold', with three minutes to prepare.

The second meeting was where we were asked tough questions on politics in general, and UKIP policies in particular. The third was with a 'journalist', firstly posing from the press, secondly from local radio and thirdly acting as an interviewer on national TV.

I passed. Now, I am entitled to apply to any seat advertised.

Although there was an attractive element of 'shoestring' about the operation (it took place in UKIP central, Ramsey, and we were not told of the venue until we arrived), it is certainly a quantum leap improvement on the 2010 GE.

Go for Broxtowe and make it a pb grudge-match.

LOL excellent idea. Throw in SeanT for Mebyon Kernow amd invite the DT bloggers to round it off.

For those interested, I am hoping to be selected for Cambridge City constituency. I know that UKIP won no councillors in Cambridge city itself, but the seat is a three-way marginal (now four-way?).

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Foxinsoxuk, that's an unfair comment.

Rome still had a huge number of men capable of bearing arms, strong defences, a very resilient base of loyalty in wider Italy and Hannibal had no siege engines. The defeat for Carthage in the Second Punic War had more to do with a lack of support for Hannibal from Carthage, the very strong loyalty of Italy to Rome and the incredibly robust Roman military/political system. It's a rather sad contrast to how Rome was when it fell to the low standards of killing Aurelian and Honorius having Stilicho killed.

I accept that Rome may have lost its army, but still was a formidable opponent. They learned a lot from the defeat very quickly. Perhaps the lesson is that without the infrastructure to follow up, an isolated victory like Cannae is just a memorable flash in the pan.

Zhukov knew about staff planning and the infrastructure to complete the job. Within the year he was in Berlin.

Interesting to hear David Kendrick's experience of getting on the national panel. I don't hope that UKIP gets an MP, but if they do it'd be great if it was David, who has identified himself here from the start, and remains civil, interesting and balanced to a fault, even when he's reporting on problems in getting people to support him because his rival is more popular. I wish him a more promising seat than Cambridge. Definitely welcome in Broxtowe!

It's a while since I did any selection meetings (something I'll soon be remedying) but the usual format is 5- or 10-minute speeches followed by 10-15 minutes' speeches. A few questions are barred - you can't quiz candidates on whether they'll give money to the campaign, their sexual preferences, their family background, etc. A common pattern seems to be that candidates want to go on about what wonderful campaigners they are while members want to ask about their political views, to smoke out the energetic young things with shaky ideas of policy. In tightly-contested seats you have have lots of these sessions - in branch and affiliate nomination meetings, at short-listing time, and then one or more constituency hustings. You can also canvass members and send up to three leaflets - very like a mini-GE. The perception that seats are easily fixed for leadership favourites is wrong - well-advised candidates with good connections should get through to the short-list, but after that it's up to the members, who are usually notably resistant to being told what to do.

I don't think there is now a Parliamentary panel of approved candidates as it's felt that the system is rigorous enough already, though at council level where the selectorate is smaller there is an approval process, and that's quite testing, I've heard - you get quizzed closely on what responsibilities borough vs county councils have and what you think about tricky questions that voters or the media might raise.

All these tales about UKIP on the ground sound horribly "déjà vu", to a veteran of the Liberals in the 60's and the SDP in the 80's.

Except that the Liberals were a LOT younger. Apart from the few survivors from Lloyd George's days!

NickPalmer said:

isam said:

What exactly does he role involve if one were to succeed?

This is for the borough council, right? You should reckon to
spend an evening or two a week on the official business (depending
on how many committees you sit on) and as much as you see fit
on keeping in touch with your voters. Serious councillors have it
effectively as their main hobby and struggle to avoid it impinging on
work. It's vital to enjoy it as the pay is generally peanuts (ca. £4000/year
in Broxtowe for maybe 15-20 hours/week), but borough council work
does have its rewards - the council is powerful enough to matter (e.g.
on planning issues) but your ward is small enough that you can easily
meet almost every voter is you put your mind to it. A few years of that
and they'll re-elect you even if your party falls from fashion.

Thanks Nick.

I didn't know it was a paid role!

if the kind of numpties that 'like' dodgy Facebook pages are standing, how hard can it be?!!

Is it the necessary first step to being an MP?

MikeK said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Farage has yet to enjoy a victory comparable with Saguntum, Trebia, Trasimene or Cannae (as yet).

Can't comment on Zukov. Presumably that's WWII?

I can't comment on Punic war victories or defeats but to MHO, 20+ seats in the commons would be enough of a Cannae for me, especialy if the othe prong had succeeded in being first in the EU elections of 2014.

So are you saying that less than 20 seats (or let's be fair 15 seats) would be an unmitigated disaster?

I'll take the other half of that bet if you like.

I'll give OGH £1 for each seat more than 15 UKIP win in 2015 (capped at £20) and you give him £1 for each seat less than 15 with an extra £5 (i.e. £20) if they win zero seats

BTW, haven't seen the usual YG Sunday polling roundup - apols if I missed it. Labour lead 9 (39/30/15/10), app -36, Cam -26, Ed -34, Nick -57, economy bad (-61), eoconomic strategy should change from deficit priority to growth priority (42-31), help Syria in humanitarian ways and a no-fly zone but not weapons or intervention, best on immigration UKIP 25, Con 18, Lab 14, none of them 29. Various movements to please each of us (e.g. last leader poll showed Ed bouncing, this drops him back, but shows a swing against government economic policy) but overall picture pretty stable.

The only point I'd pick out is that the underlying economic view remains morose although the news has been OKish for some time. I'd guess this reflects people's personal experience - they read that things are getting a bit better, but they personally are worse off.

MikeK said:

Charles said:

You almost make the point when referring to Labour, but it's interesting that ALL the parties have lost +/- 10% of their support.

Con 3.43 off 30.83 (11%)
Lab 3.93 off 40.33 (10%)
LibD 1.3 off 9.5 (14%)

That suggests to me that UKIP is still just top slicing off people who are hacked off with politicians generally rather than making any sophisticated policy-led appeal. The LDs suffer a little more - perhaps because they are still more of a party of protest?

Of course limited data and MoE comes into play, but thought it was interesting to look at the relative impact.

So UKIP taking more off Labour than Tory then. Theres a surprise!

Don't read too much into that - they've already taken the easy wins from the Tories. It will become harder to win Tory supporters (they're more like Richard Nabavi) going forward, so Farage is right to focus more on the isams of the world.

Oh those heady days of 9%. When will they come again?

Although I continue to admire and respect the Lib Dems for doing what needed to be done in the national interest at a time of genuine danger there is something deeply amusing about a party that fights to get the balance of power since at least 1987, gets it and then is almost destroyed as a result.

Be careful what you wish for.

Apologies if this has already been covered but I was slightly surprised to be presented with this headline this morning when switching on AOL: http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/05/31/rebel-mp-tory-david-cameron-confidence-_n_3364562.html?utm_hp_re

Reading it, it appears that the story has a remarkably thin factual base, even for Mr Hasan, basically 1 disgruntled MP so far as I can see but such stories will not help tory polling.

CarlottaVance said:

Rentoul says Ed will promise an EU referendum:

Ed Miliband is going to promise a referendum on Britain's membership of the European Union. And that means the referendum will almost certainly happen. Previously, I had assumed that David Cameron's promise of a referendum was more about managing the Conservative Party than about European policy – although that's not to say it is a bad idea. In fact, the Prime Minister's policy of renegotiating the terms of our membership of the EU and cementing the result with a referendum, with the aim of staying in the EU, is probably closest to what most British people want.


But when the election comes closer the Labour leader will not want to put off even a handful. I predict that, within six months of the election, all four main parties will be committed to a referendum.


http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/ed-miliband-dare-not-duck-an-eu-referendum-8640746.html

The way he interprets Clegg is a bit mad. British politicians always support a referendum in the next parliament, as long as they won't be in a position to actually provide one. Clegg supported an in/out referendum when there was a treaty to have a referendum on, and now instead supports a referendum on a treaty instead, now that there's no actual treaty to have a referendum on.

So Clegg can safely support a referendum when the rules change, if he either thinks he'll be out of office, or he doesn't think there will be a treaty, or he doesn't think Britain will be party to that treaty if there is one. This is a combination of three unlikely things, the upshot of which is, "We're going to sound like we want a referendum, but you wouldn't actually get one".

NickPalmer said:

isam said:

NickPalmer said:

isam said:

What exactly does he role involve if one were to succeed?

This is for the borough council, right? You should reckon to
spend an evening or two a week on the official business (depending
on how many committees you sit on) and as much as you see fit
on keeping in touch with your voters. Serious councillors have it
effectively as their main hobby and struggle to avoid it impinging on
work. It's vital to enjoy it as the pay is generally peanuts (ca. £4000/year
in Broxtowe for maybe 15-20 hours/week), but borough council work
does have its rewards - the council is powerful enough to matter (e.g.
on planning issues) but your ward is small enough that you can easily
meet almost every voter is you put your mind to it. A few years of that
and they'll re-elect you even if your party falls from fashion.

Thanks Nick.

I didn't know it was a paid role!

if the kind of numpties that 'like' dodgy Facebook pages are standing, how hard can it be?!!

Is it the necessary first step to being an MP?

It's not hard to stand, just hard work to do it well! You have, say, 4000 voters. Ideally you should get to know them all (more realistically, half of them) and keep track of their interests and concerns, become their first port of call when there's a problem in the area. There are of course councillors who don't bother with that and just go to some meetings, but if you were going to be a deadweight, why bother?

it's a useful CV entry when applying to be an MP, since it shows you've worked at a lower level without disgracing yourself - if you were nuts, it would have probably become apparent. But certainly not necessary, especially in UKIP where they need up to 650 candidates and have nowhere near that many councillors.

No offence intended, but you sound younger than some of us (not difficult in my case), so you might try first getting on the panel like David and then deliberately standing in a quiet but unpromising ward (an upmarket Tory ward with a popular councillor, maybe) to see if you enjoy it - people won't be rude to you, hy and large, and it'll be interesting but non-committal. If you enjoy it you could try more ambitiously next time.

Looking at the ward I live in, Upminster, it seems there are four councillors and they are all Residents Association... Is that right?

The current MP, Angela Watkinson, seems to be on the right of the Conservative party and won a big majority in 2010.

I'm not that young I'm afraid, 38. Not much younger than the PM! But no offence taken!

Is Ed Miliband crap enough to lose the next election?

@iainmartin1: Is Ed Miliband the Tories' secret weapon? (My piece for the Sunday @Telegraph ) http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10093021/Is-Ed-Miliband-the-Tories-secret-weapon.html

MikeK said:

In the L/Dems case the vast majority of the the rank and file members were against joining into a coalition with Cammo, or any Tories. Hence the collapsing base. In UKIP's case on the contrary, we strive for power on our own and the executive have the full support of the members.

Utterly untrue. Did you enjoy making it up? At the special conference to ratify the coalition, Lib Dem members voted by 96% to endorse the coalition.

The voice of reason.... Garry Bushell!


"BBC2’s The Iraq War raised more questions than it answered. If Saddam had no WMD, wasn’t involved in 9/11 and had no stomach for war with the West, then why were we there? What did 179 British soldiers and 4,500 Yanks actually die for? Worth considering when we hear today’s politicians try to drum us into a new Sunni-Shia conflict in Syria."

MikeK said:

I'm not talking about the conference of about 2000 members. i'm talking about the rest of the membership that wasn't represented. MODERATED

MODERATED . What makes you think you know better than the actual membership vote what the members thought? Have any evidence to show what would have been the most bizarre result of modern times if the who turned up to vote were 96% in favour, while those who didn't were "overwhelmingly against"? I didn't think so. MODERATED

TGOHF said:

MarkSenior said:

TGOHF said:

david_kendrick1 said:

For those interested, I am hoping to be selected for Cambridge City constituency. I know that UKIP won no councillors in Cambridge city itself, but the seat is a three-way marginal (now four-way?).

How many Ukip candidates stood in Cambridge City ? There wasn't one in my ward.

Last GE the LDs won with the Cons finishing suprise 2nd.

Should imagine a Ukip candidate standing would scoop up enough of the WWC northern fringe of the city Labour vote so that the Greenohilolic (anti - A14 upgrade), Euroholic, spendoholic Dr Huppert will stay on as MP.

God bless FPTP.

The results in May in the wards making up Cambridge parliamentary seat were

Lab 10150
LDem 7257
Con 3684
Green 2298
Ind 1024
UKIP 633
Others 118

Still noting that Ukip put up a candidate in most county seats but none in the city.

My ward switched from LD to Lab after a very aggressive ground war between the two but in the GE I'd still I'll be betting LD hold.

I wasn't convinced by the LD message enough to switch to keep the Reds out - so some work to do for the LD team.

UKIP contested 5 of the Cambridge wards in May . Around 700 of the Ind votes were for John Hipkin in Castle ward and would be Lib Dem in a GE or when he does not stand as in 2011 .

foxinsoxuk said:

isam said:

" Imagine this: Newspapers and broadcasters in China suddenly start to denounce the British government. They call it a ‘regime’. They say that its treatment of its Muslim minority is cruel and unjust.

Soon, their views are echoed by the Chinese Foreign Minister, who in a speech at the United Nations says that Britain’s treatment of its minorities is a disgrace, and calls for sanctions against this country.

The Chinese ambassador turns up as an ‘observer’ at an Islamist demonstration in Birmingham. Some protestors are injured. Carefully-edited footage of the occasion is shown on global TV stations, in which the police are made to look brutal and the provocations against them are not shown...."


http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/

My thoughts on the Syrian intervention are much the same. I also do not like the way we seem to be lining up against Russia on this. I can see why Russia does not want an Islamist regime stoking up trouble on its Southern borders. Some help with mediation and conflict resolution would be fine, but arms to an side in a civil war so confused is insane. The history of our interventions in the Middle East is one failure after another, that have achieved little. This is a local issue for local people.

BTW Interesting bit in the next paragraph of the article about Cannibis use by the Woolwich suspects. I have some friends who never fully recovered from Cannabis induced paranoia.

Party politics aside (I was anti the Iraq & Afghanistan wars when I was a Labour voter and haven't changed my opinion) I have always thought "what if another, more powerful, country decided they didn't like our Govt and decided to bomb us and arm our fanatics?"... Seems crazy to intervene as we do.

On the cannabis front, I too have known people who it affected. It is not a soft drug, and I think it is fair to say smoking a joint has changed from being like drinking a pint of fosters to a can of special brew in terms of strength over the last 20 odd years


I'm sure Hitchens is ahead of the game oñ this one

perdix said:

MikeK said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

A pub interview with Farage ;

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/you/article-2332184/Introducing-Nigel-Farage-Ukip-leader-whos-charming-ladies-.html?ito=feeds-newsxml

The comments make this story.

Farage "charming the ladies?" Is this the same Farage who said that women of child-bearing age are a "burden" to employers?

I think that was Godfrey Bloom.

Not all women are feminists

perdix said:

Farage "charming the ladies?" Is this the same Farage who said that women of child-bearing age are a "burden" to employers?

That was another UKIP MEP Godrey.

DavidL said:

This is a really good batting track. What is Dernbach's record for runs conceded? Could be on today.

I recall him going for 100 in a 10 over spell. I've watched him a lot and never seen why he's picked, either.

OldKingCole said:

DavidL said:

This is a really good batting track. What is Dernbach's record for runs conceded? Could be on today.

I recall him going for 100 in a 10 over spell. I've watched him a lot and never seen why he's picked, either.

He looks good in the new kit? Good barnet?

OldKingCole said:

DavidL said:

This is a really good batting track. What is Dernbach's record for runs conceded? Could be on today.

I recall him going for 100 in a 10 over spell. I've watched him a lot and never seen why he's picked, either.

The good news is that if Joe Root is bowling he won't get 10 overs (unless Bresnan disappears).

MikeK said:

NewZealand Revenge today?

Unless England get wickets they are heading for 300 plus. With our plodders at the top of the innings that is out of reach.

He is going to have to come back to Jimmy again soon but he really can't do it all on his own.

tim said:

Survation

Con 25
Lab 36
UKIP 20
LD 10

@DavidWooding: How are PM's efforts to combat extremism viewed? And that Ibiza holiday? More from Survation poll. http://t.co/Kq8VWvwJkm


And some dire numbers for the chillaxed fop PM personally

The article seems to think that 36-25=9. The numbers no worse than the last two Survation polls (indeed 1% better for both major parties with UKIP 2 points off the peak) but they were pretty scary for the Tories, so the persistent results are not reassuring for them. I think the criticism of Cameron on terror is unfair, especially given that Woolwich seems to have been a one-off, but the laid-back image is not helping him recover. (And whoever does his PR was bonkers to release pictures from the holiday.)