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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling averages and changes with the online pollsters since January
Now that the Opinium poll for the Observer and the The YouGov for the Sunday Times have both been published, all the online polls for May have been published, here’s the online polling average, to go with the phone pollster analysis I did earlier on in the week.
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I'm glad you made the comparison with the telephone poll changes because I'm quite sleepy and was certain these figures contradicted some I'd seen here earlier. I should know better than to question the integrity of a bar chart.
Interesting that the Conservatives have, I think, done a little worse here and Labour roughly the same (maybe a little better). UKIP doing well is the only real constant, but that's obvious.
In the telephone polls the Labour lead declined by a fair but not enormous margin, whereas here it's roughly the same.
On Doctor Who: I must deny the story that the 50th Anniversary villain will be a renegade Time Lord known as The Dancer. It's simply not true.
THANK YOU
Good morning, nice and sunny in London.
That would put the wind up Gran'dads Army. "They don't like it u'pem", you know.
Both vastly overrated by their supporters because of a few minor victories earlier on in their careers and on course for a major ass whooping in the war.
I can't believe I got up at 6.30 on a Sunday Morning to a write up a PB thread.
Mr. K, I didn't know that. I've read Gardens of the Moon, and whilst I can see why others like it, it's not my cup of tea.
that's dedication.
Can't comment on Zukov. Presumably that's WWII?
The second meeting was where we were asked tough questions on politics in general, and UKIP policies in particular. The third was with a 'journalist', firstly posing from the press, secondly from local radio and thirdly acting as an interviewer on national TV.
I passed. Now, I am entitled to apply to any seat advertised.
Although there was an attractive element of 'shoestring' about the operation (it took place in UKIP central, Ramsey, and we were not told of the venue until we arrived), it is certainly a quantum leap improvement on the 2010 GE.
Surely all you had to do was claim you were an Old Alleynian and prove it by misplacing an apostrophe.
What is it with political parties these days?
[For the record, Cannae is commonly considered the greatest battlefield victory in history. Hannibal was significantly outnumbered, but using a perfect strategy almost entirely annihilated the enemy. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hannibal#Battle_of_Cannae]
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/you/article-2332184/Introducing-Nigel-Farage-Ukip-leader-whos-charming-ladies-.html?ito=feeds-newsxml
Why not call yourself Hannibal and apply for the Chair of 'Young Independence'?
Just don't mention the elephants.
Zhukov knew how to destroy the enemy. His greatest victory was Operation Bagration in June to August 44, destroying the Nazi Army Group Center in two months, inflicting more losses on the Germans than they had at Stalingrad, or Verdun. Because of the near simultaneous D-Day battles it is not well known in the UK or USA.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Bagration
The lesson? Victory without follow up is squandered.
Rome still had a huge number of men capable of bearing arms, strong defences, a very resilient base of loyalty in wider Italy and Hannibal had no siege engines. The defeat for Carthage in the Second Punic War had more to do with a lack of support for Hannibal from Carthage, the very strong loyalty of Italy to Rome and the incredibly robust Roman military/political system. It's a rather sad contrast to how Rome was when it fell to the low standards of killing Aurelian and Honorius having Stilicho killed.
#Ron Paul destroys #Piers Morgan on US TV http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVFceV8gszk …
About time someone took that sanctamonious prig down a peg, or two.
Zhukov knew about staff planning and the infrastructure to complete the job. Within the year he was in Berlin.
"As with the phone pollsters, UKIP is the big winner since January, up from 11.67% since January to 19% now, they would be appearing to take votes nearly equally from both the Conservatives and Labour." TSE
Just thinking that if this progression continues, UKIP will, as I said yesterday reach 26%± by years end and, as they say, that will be mighty new kettle of fish; and Farage is an expert at fishing.
'When i talk to my friends so quietly
"who he think he is?" look at what you've done to me
Tennis shoes don't even need to buy a new dress
You ain't there, ain't nobody else to impress'
What exactly does the role involve if one were to succeed?
It's a while since I did any selection meetings (something I'll soon be remedying) but the usual format is 5- or 10-minute speeches followed by 10-15 minutes' speeches. A few questions are barred - you can't quiz candidates on whether they'll give money to the campaign, their sexual preferences, their family background, etc. A common pattern seems to be that candidates want to go on about what wonderful campaigners they are while members want to ask about their political views, to smoke out the energetic young things with shaky ideas of policy. In tightly-contested seats you have have lots of these sessions - in branch and affiliate nomination meetings, at short-listing time, and then one or more constituency hustings. You can also canvass members and send up to three leaflets - very like a mini-GE. The perception that seats are easily fixed for leadership favourites is wrong - well-advised candidates with good connections should get through to the short-list, but after that it's up to the members, who are usually notably resistant to being told what to do.
I don't think there is now a Parliamentary panel of approved candidates as it's felt that the system is rigorous enough already, though at council level where the selectorate is smaller there is an approval process, and that's quite testing, I've heard - you get quizzed closely on what responsibilities borough vs county councils have and what you think about tricky questions that voters or the media might raise.
Ed Miliband is going to promise a referendum on Britain's membership of the European Union. And that means the referendum will almost certainly happen. Previously, I had assumed that David Cameron's promise of a referendum was more about managing the Conservative Party than about European policy – although that's not to say it is a bad idea. In fact, the Prime Minister's policy of renegotiating the terms of our membership of the EU and cementing the result with a referendum, with the aim of staying in the EU, is probably closest to what most British people want.
But when the election comes closer the Labour leader will not want to put off even a handful. I predict that, within six months of the election, all four main parties will be committed to a referendum.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/ed-miliband-dare-not-duck-an-eu-referendum-8640746.html
Except that the Liberals were a LOT younger. Apart from the few survivors from Lloyd George's days!
spend an evening or two a week on the official business (depending
on how many committees you sit on) and as much as you see fit
on keeping in touch with your voters. Serious councillors have it
effectively as their main hobby and struggle to avoid it impinging on
work. It's vital to enjoy it as the pay is generally peanuts (ca. £4000/year
in Broxtowe for maybe 15-20 hours/week), but borough council work
does have its rewards - the council is powerful enough to matter (e.g.
on planning issues) but your ward is small enough that you can easily
meet almost every voter is you put your mind to it. A few years of that
and they'll re-elect you even if your party falls from fashion.
Con 3.43 off 30.83 (11%)
Lab 3.93 off 40.33 (10%)
LibD 1.3 off 9.5 (14%)
That suggests to me that UKIP is still just top slicing off people who are hacked off with politicians generally rather than making any sophisticated policy-led appeal. The LDs suffer a little more - perhaps because they are still more of a party of protest?
Of course limited data and MoE comes into play, but thought it was interesting to look at the relative impact.
I didn't know it was a paid role!
if the kind of numpties that 'like' dodgy Facebook pages are standing, how hard can it be?!!
Is it the necessary first step to being an MP?
When the votes were counted it was clear that he had only won because of the votes of the pensioners!
However apparently he also put a considerable sum on himself to win at 33-1 with Ladbrokes which, after he was elected kept the (new) full-time constituency office going until "proper" arrangements could be made.
I'll take the other half of that bet if you like.
I'll give OGH £1 for each seat more than 15 UKIP win in 2015 (capped at £20) and you give him £1 for each seat less than 15 with an extra £5 (i.e. £20) if they win zero seats
Egypt's top court rules that the country's upper house and a panel that drafted the constitution are invalid
More demo's in Tahira Square then. The whole of the Middle East is now aflame. Turkey demo's still continuing in many places.
The only point I'd pick out is that the underlying economic view remains morose although the news has been OKish for some time. I'd guess this reflects people's personal experience - they read that things are getting a bit better, but they personally are worse off.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dGxDVWFzUnk2c2JUZEZaMXZnRGx4NGc#gid=0
New post: YouGov/Sunday Times - CON 30, LAB 39, LD 10, UKIP 15
http://bit.ly/16ABrjn
it's a useful CV entry when applying to be an MP, since it shows you've worked at a lower level without disgracing yourself - if you were nuts, it would have probably become apparent. But certainly not necessary, especially in UKIP where they need up to 650 candidates and have nowhere near that many councillors.
No offence intended, but you sound younger than some of us (not difficult in my case), so you might try first getting on the panel like David and then deliberately standing in a quiet but unpromising ward (an upmarket Tory ward with a popular councillor, maybe) to see if you enjoy it - people won't be rude to you, hy and large, and it'll be interesting but non-committal. If you enjoy it you could try more ambitiously next time.
Voice of Turkey @VOT99
Protester shooted by police gun. His body was taken by police also to COVER his death. #turkeyprotest http://twitpic.com/cuxuvs
If the Turkish Islamist government collapses or fights it's own citizens, then anything could happen.
We await a Sally Bercow tweet abouit what's trending.
Although I continue to admire and respect the Lib Dems for doing what needed to be done in the national interest at a time of genuine danger there is something deeply amusing about a party that fights to get the balance of power since at least 1987, gets it and then is almost destroyed as a result.
Be careful what you wish for.
Reading it, it appears that the story has a remarkably thin factual base, even for Mr Hasan, basically 1 disgruntled MP so far as I can see but such stories will not help tory polling.
So Clegg can safely support a referendum when the rules change, if he either thinks he'll be out of office, or he doesn't think there will be a treaty, or he doesn't think Britain will be party to that treaty if there is one. This is a combination of three unlikely things, the upshot of which is, "We're going to sound like we want a referendum, but you wouldn't actually get one".
Looking at the ward I live in, Upminster, it seems there are four councillors and they are all Residents Association... Is that right?
The current MP, Angela Watkinson, seems to be on the right of the Conservative party and won a big majority in 2010.
I'm not that young I'm afraid, 38. Not much younger than the PM! But no offence taken!
Over the last 40 years, I've both worked in Cambridge (it was Kendrick Hire's top depot) and played in Cambridge (mostly cricket and bridge). I live 10 minutes from the center.
Broxtowe? No thanks. I regard it as good when politicians respect each other, and are civil. In truth, we agree about far more things than we disagree.
I wonder if there are any UKIP students at University?
@iainmartin1: Is Ed Miliband the Tories' secret weapon? (My piece for the Sunday @Telegraph ) http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10093021/Is-Ed-Miliband-the-Tories-secret-weapon.html
Soon, their views are echoed by the Chinese Foreign Minister, who in a speech at the United Nations says that Britain’s treatment of its minorities is a disgrace, and calls for sanctions against this country.
The Chinese ambassador turns up as an ‘observer’ at an Islamist demonstration in Birmingham. Some protestors are injured. Carefully-edited footage of the occasion is shown on global TV stations, in which the police are made to look brutal and the provocations against them are not shown...."
http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/
Swing from pro Euro Lib + Lab > Ukip + Con.
Labour could be on 50% if they had been in favour of a referendum now.
Catastrophic error from rEd.
Last GE the LDs won with the Cons finishing suprise 2nd.
Should imagine a Ukip candidate standing would scoop up enough of the WWC northern fringe of the city Labour vote so that the Greenohilolic (anti - A14 upgrade), Euroholic, spendoholic Dr Huppert will stay on as MP.
God bless FPTP.
"BBC2’s The Iraq War raised more questions than it answered. If Saddam had no WMD, wasn’t involved in 9/11 and had no stomach for war with the West, then why were we there? What did 179 British soldiers and 4,500 Yanks actually die for? Worth considering when we hear today’s politicians try to drum us into a new Sunni-Shia conflict in Syria."
Lab 10150
LDem 7257
Con 3684
Green 2298
Ind 1024
UKIP 633
Others 118
BTW Interesting bit in the next paragraph of the article about Cannibis use by the Woolwich suspects. I have some friends who never fully recovered from Cannabis induced paranoia.
My ward switched from LD to Lab after a very aggressive ground war between the two but in the GE I'd still I'll be betting LD hold.
I wasn't convinced by the LD message enough to switch to keep the Reds out - so some work to do for the LD team.
Party politics aside (I was anti the Iraq & Afghanistan wars when I was a Labour voter and haven't changed my opinion) I have always thought "what if another, more powerful, country decided they didn't like our Govt and decided to bomb us and arm our fanatics?"... Seems crazy to intervene as we do.
On the cannabis front, I too have known people who it affected. It is not a soft drug, and I think it is fair to say smoking a joint has changed from being like drinking a pint of fosters to a can of special brew in terms of strength over the last 20 odd years
I'm sure Hitchens is ahead of the game oñ this one
Not all women are feminists
http://tinyurl.com/mjggo3s
Surely Syria is on Russia's southern boundary in the same sort of way that Libya is on ours. Russia starts a lot more north these days but was never that close.
Doesn't mean I disagree with your points about whether our intevention is a good idea or not. The Americans and Russia seem to have got closer to the same page and I would hope that the EU or us would not get in the way.
Bresnan is going to leave the field if his wife goes into labour...
England are batting second...
Could he open?
40/1 top Eng bat
Great knowledge, pro active commentary, self deprecating sense of humour...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/10093611/British-identity-is-waning-in-England.html
One point in the article I take umbrage with is this: Ahem: "God Save the Queen" is the de facto anthem of Engerlundt! As GB the other two sing it (Ulster-Scots are excepted as an anomoly) because:
+ Wales is a proto-colony. It has a faux capital that's existence barely pre-dates my own mortal soul, and
+ Scotland is the constitutional off-spring of a failed marriage (Margaret and Wee Jimmy the Fourth) whose custodial status is currently under review.
So let us celebrate England and her folk by discussing the renaissance of our nation. And - at the same time - let us show our respect for "Johnnie Foreigner" is our time-honoured style; with humour...!
* In the interest of balance of course....
He is going to have to come back to Jimmy again soon but he really can't do it all on his own.
http://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2013/06/talking-turkey/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
and the Kissing protest in Ankara sounds like the beginning of a real culture war:
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2013/05/26/Islamists-attack-Turkey-kissing-protest-.html
I would like to see a secular democratic state in Turkey (and indeed in every country in the world) but there is real trouble possible there between the Kemalists and the Islamists.
On the other point:
I agree that Syria is not physically that close to Russia, but Russia has been in conflict over its southern flank in the Balkans and Caucuses for two centuries, and there is a strong interest in the outcome there. I do not think that they should get deeply involved either. Russia Today does give a very different picture of the conflict to our own media, though very onesided it is of interest.
On Turkey - the position of liberal secular cities vs intensely traditional countryside is not new though it seems to be sharpening. The AK government has been fairly reasonable until recently (and a lot more open-minded than its secular military-backed predecessors), but an authoritarian streak is now appearing. Their position on Syria has been discreet support for the rebels (not least as they're having to house lots of refugees in Turkey) but stopping short of air strikes or the like. They aren't getting into the Sunnis vs Shias stuff and are wary of those who do.
I'm surprised there haven't been more reports of Iraq-Syria cooperation. They share some of the same enemies (militant Sunni extremists in general and Al Quaeda in particular) though Assad is both more secular and more dictatorial than the Shia-led government in Iraq (which for all its faults was elected after a fairly clean election). Has the Iraqi government taken sides?